Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ANA-21
in Fiji

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 012100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 210201191953
2021020118 15P ANA 012 02 160 08 SATL 030
T000 231S 1796E 040 R034 245 NE QD 165 SE QD 185 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 249S 1784W 040 R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP 000HR EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 23.1S 179.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 179.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.9S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 179.9W.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z
IS 20 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1521012618 162S1684E 20
1521012700 162S1686E 25
1521012706 161S1688E 25
1521012712 161S1691E 25
1521012718 160S1693E 25
1521012800 156S1695E 25
1521012806 156S1701E 25
1521012812 157S1711E 25
1521012818 157S1717E 25
1521012900 157S1724E 30
1521012906 156S1732E 30
1521012912 153S1745E 30
1521012918 157S1757E 35
1521013000 161S1765E 40
1521013006 165S1770E 45
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013018 174S1780E 60
1521013018 174S1780E 60
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013106 188S1781E 60
1521013106 188S1781E 60
1521013112 196S1786E 55
1521013112 196S1786E 55
1521013118 204S1788E 55
1521013118 204S1788E 55
1521020100 211S1790E 55
1521020100 211S1790E 55
1521020106 219S1792E 50
1521020106 219S1792E 50
1521020112 224S1793E 45
1521020118 231S1796E 40

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 23.1S 179.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 179.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.9S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 179.9W.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED 150+
NM SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A GROSSLY ELONGATED, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). ADDITIONALLY, A STEADY STREAM OF LOW LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD LINES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR, ARE WRAPPING
INTO THE LLC. MOST RECENT WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES THE MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE MORE THAN 60NM AWAY FROM THE LLCC. TC ANA HAS BECOME SUBTROPICAL
AND NO LONGER MEETS JTWC WARNING CRITERIA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 20 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 011500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 210201141104
2021020112 15P ANA 011 02 150 09 SATL 060
T000 227S 1800E 045 R034 240 NE QD 190 SE QD 195 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 242S 1784W 040 R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD 160 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 262S 1765W 040 R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 286S 1740W 040 R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 22.7S 180.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 180.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.2S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.2S 176.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 28.6S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 179.6W.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
290 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1521012618 162S1684E 20
1521012700 162S1686E 25
1521012706 161S1688E 25
1521012712 161S1691E 25
1521012718 160S1693E 25
1521012800 156S1695E 25
1521012806 156S1701E 25
1521012812 157S1711E 25
1521012818 157S1717E 25
1521012900 157S1724E 30
1521012906 156S1732E 30
1521012912 153S1745E 30
1521012918 157S1757E 35
1521013000 161S1765E 40
1521013006 165S1770E 45
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013018 174S1780E 60
1521013018 174S1780E 60
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013106 188S1781E 60
1521013106 188S1781E 60
1521013112 196S1786E 55
1521013112 196S1786E 55
1521013118 204S1788E 55
1521013118 204S1788E 55
1521020100 211S1790E 55
1521020100 211S1790E 55
1521020106 219S1795E 50
1521020106 219S1795E 50
1521020112 227S1800E 45

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 22.7S 180.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 180.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.2S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.2S 176.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 28.6S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 179.6W.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
290 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011206Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/3.5 (45/55 KNOTS) AND A KNES ESTIMATE
OF T3.0/3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30-35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR
TAU 12 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
TROUGH. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TROUGH WITH INCREASING VWS (35-40 KNOTS) AND COOLER SST VALUES (25-
24C). TC 15P SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36 AS A
GALE-FORCE LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P
(LUCAS) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 010900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 210201064627
2021020106 15P ANA 010 03 150 09 SATL 040
T000 219S 1795E 050 R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 145 SE QD 125 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 233S 1792W 045 R034 210 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 251S 1774W 040 R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 273S 1752W 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 21.9S 179.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 179.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.3S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.1S 177.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.3S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 179.8E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1521012618 162S1684E 20
1521012700 162S1686E 25
1521012706 161S1688E 25
1521012712 161S1691E 25
1521012718 160S1693E 25
1521012800 156S1695E 25
1521012806 156S1701E 25
1521012812 157S1711E 25
1521012818 157S1717E 25
1521012900 157S1724E 30
1521012906 156S1732E 30
1521012912 153S1745E 30
1521012918 157S1757E 35
1521013000 161S1765E 40
1521013006 165S1770E 45
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013018 174S1780E 60
1521013018 174S1780E 60
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013106 188S1781E 60
1521013106 188S1781E 60
1521013112 196S1786E 55
1521013112 196S1786E 55
1521013118 204S1788E 55
1521013118 204S1788E 55
1521020100 211S1790E 55
1521020100 211S1790E 55
1521020106 219S1795E 50
1521020106 219S1795E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 010900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 21.9S 179.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 179.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.3S 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.1S 177.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.3S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010900Z POSITION NEAR 22.2S 179.8E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND A LARGE
REGION OF STRATOCUMULUS (COOLER, DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR) ADVECTING
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 010425Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
REVEALS SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLES OF A DEFINED LLCC, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION
WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS
BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/3.5 (45/55 KNOTS). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30-35
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH INCREASING VWS (35-40 KNOTS).
ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 26-25C AFTER
TAU 12, WHICH WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY
TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING
HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 45NM SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND
020900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) FINAL WARNING (WTPS32
PGTW). REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 010300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 210201020644
2021020100 15P ANA 009 03 160 08 SATL 060
T000 212S 1791E 055 R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 145 SE QD 125 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T012 226S 1800E 050 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T024 242S 1784W 045 R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 262S 1764W 040 R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 285S 1738W 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 21.2S 179.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 179.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.6S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.2S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.2S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 28.5S 173.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 179.3E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE WE
STERLY VWS IS STARTING TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON TC 15P, WITH THE WESTERN OUTER FEEDER BANDS STARTING TO
EMERGE FROM UNDER THE CIRRUS CANOPY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN NO R
ECENT MICROWAVE PASSES, SO THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SPIRAL
BAND ANALYSIS OF THE LOW LEVEL BANDS EVIDENT IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 55 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMAT
ES BETWEEN T3.5-T4.0 (55 TO 65 KTS) AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.6. THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY
ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES ALONG THE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL R
IDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST P
ERIOD. AS CONFIRMED BY THE INCREASINGLY SHEARED DEPICTION IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WESTERLY VWS A
SSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IS IMPACTING THE SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IN
CREASE THROUGH TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH, IT WILL ENCOUNTER COOLER
WATERS, EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO WATERS LESS THAN 26C BY TAU 36, AND THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE IN
CREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS WILL RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFID
ENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNI
NGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
1521012618 162S1684E 20
1521012700 162S1686E 25
1521012706 161S1688E 25
1521012712 161S1691E 25
1521012718 160S1693E 25
1521012800 156S1695E 25
1521012806 156S1701E 25
1521012812 157S1711E 25
1521012818 157S1717E 25
1521012900 157S1724E 30
1521012906 156S1732E 30
1521012912 153S1745E 30
1521012918 157S1757E 35
1521013000 161S1765E 40
1521013006 165S1770E 45
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013018 174S1780E 60
1521013018 174S1780E 60
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013106 188S1781E 60
1521013106 188S1781E 60
1521013112 196S1786E 55
1521013112 196S1786E 55
1521013118 204S1788E 55
1521013118 204S1788E 55
1521020100 212S1791E 55
1521020100 212S1791E 55

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010000Z --- NEAR 21.2S 179.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.2S 179.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.6S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 24.2S 178.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 26.2S 176.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 28.5S 173.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 21.5S 179.3E.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE WESTERLY VWS IS STARTING TO TAKE ITS
TOLL ON TC 15P, WITH THE WESTERN OUTER FEEDER BANDS STARTING TO
EMERGE FROM UNDER THE CIRRUS CANOPY ON THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES, SO THE
INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON A SPIRAL
BAND ANALYSIS OF THE LOW LEVEL BANDS EVIDENT IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BETWEEN T3.5-T4.0 (55 TO 65 KTS) AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.6. THE
SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO SLOWLY ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES
ALONG THE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS CONFIRMED BY THE
INCREASINGLY SHEARED DEPICTION IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WESTERLY
VWS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES IS IMPACTING THE
SYSTEM AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH TAU 48.
ADDITIONALLY AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING SOUTH, IT WILL ENCOUNTER
COOLER WATERS, EXPECTED TO CROSS INTO WATERS LESS THAN 26C BY TAU
36, AND THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF THE INCREASED SHEAR AND COOLER SSTS
WILL RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS)
WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 312100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 210131200329
2021013118 15P ANA 008 03 155 10 SATL 060
T000 205S 1790E 055 R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 145 SE QD 115 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T012 220S 1799E 050 R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 135 SE QD 155 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
T024 234S 1790W 045 R034 150 NE QD 135 SE QD 155 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 253S 1772W 040 R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 274S 1748W 035 R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 312S 1697W 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 20.5S 179.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 179.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 22.0S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.4S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.3S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.4S 174.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 31.2S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 179.2E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
1521012618 162S1684E 20
1521012700 162S1686E 25
1521012706 161S1688E 25
1521012712 161S1691E 25
1521012718 160S1693E 25
1521012800 156S1695E 25
1521012806 156S1701E 25
1521012812 157S1711E 25
1521012818 157S1717E 25
1521012900 157S1724E 30
1521012906 156S1732E 30
1521012912 153S1745E 30
1521012918 157S1757E 35
1521013000 161S1765E 40
1521013006 165S1770E 45
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013018 174S1780E 60
1521013018 174S1780E 60
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013106 188S1781E 60
1521013106 188S1781E 60
1521013112 196S1786E 55
1521013112 196S1786E 55
1521013118 205S1790E 55
1521013118 205S1790E 55

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 312100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311800Z --- NEAR 20.5S 179.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5S 179.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 22.0S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 23.4S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 25.3S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 27.4S 174.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 31.2S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
312100Z POSITION NEAR 20.9S 179.2E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 148 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
AND EARLY MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A BROAD AREA
OF SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION WITH A SHARP WESTERN EDGE AND DIFFUSE
EASTERN EDGE, INDICATIVE OF STRONG WESTERLY VWS. WHILE THE EXACT
CENTER OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS OBSCURED BY THE
CIRRUS CANOPY AND DEEP CONVECTOIN, THERE ARE A FEW LOW LEVEL BANDS
EVIDENT ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS, COMBINED
WITH A 311615Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A FAIRLY BROAD
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE
BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
BETWEEN T3.5-T4.5 (55-75 KTS), AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.3 AND A SATCON
ESTIMATE OF 60 KTS. ANALYSIS REVEALS AN OVERALL MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (26-27C) SSTS AND MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS)
VWS BEING OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. AS DEPICTED IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY, WESTERLY VWS IS
BEGINNING TO HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM,
WITH THE LLCC STARTING TO APPEAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE CONVECTIVE
MASS. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACCELERATING TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
STR CENTERED TO THE EAST. SLOW BUT STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED
THOUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST AS THE SYSTEM IS IMPACTED BY
INCREASING VWS AND MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS. AROUND
TAU 48, TC 16P WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHEAST AND MERGE WITH TC
15P, DISRUPTING THE CORE CIRCULATION AND LEADING TO ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING AS IT CROSSES THE 26C ISOTHERM, ULTIMATELY DISSIPATING BY
TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE CROSS-
TRACK SOLUTIONS, WITH MODERATE AGREEMENT IN THE ALONG-TRACK
SOLUTIONS. THE JTWC FORECAST LIES TO THE EAST AND SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, THOUGH THERE
REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE IMPACT OF THE BINARY INTERACTION
AND MERGER OF TC 16P. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311800Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (BINA) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNINGS
(WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 311500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 210131123022
2021013112 15P ANA 007 03 160 08 SATL 030
T000 196S 1786E 055 R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 135 SE QD 155 SW QD 160 NW QD
T012 208S 1790E 050 R050 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 135 SE QD 155 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 220S 1797E 045 R034 150 NE QD 135 SE QD 155 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 235S 1790W 040 R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 254S 1772W 035 R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 294S 1724W 030
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 19.6S 178.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 178.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.8S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.0S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.5S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.4S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 29.4S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 178.7E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 91 NM
SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1521012618 162S1684E 20
1521012700 162S1686E 25
1521012706 161S1688E 25
1521012712 161S1691E 25
1521012718 160S1693E 25
1521012800 156S1695E 25
1521012806 156S1701E 25
1521012812 157S1711E 25
1521012818 157S1717E 25
1521012900 157S1724E 30
1521012906 156S1732E 30
1521012912 153S1745E 30
1521012918 157S1757E 35
1521013000 161S1765E 40
1521013006 165S1770E 45
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013018 174S1780E 60
1521013018 174S1780E 60
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013106 188S1783E 60
1521013106 188S1783E 60
1521013112 196S1786E 55
1521013112 196S1786E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 19.6S 178.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 178.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.8S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.0S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.5S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 25.4S 177.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 29.4S 172.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 178.7E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 91 NM
SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION ORIENTED
EAST-WEST. A 310922Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS AN EXPOSED,
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER POSITIONED ON THE NORTHWEST
EDGE OF A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND WITH SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. A 311017Z ASCAT-
C IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED CIRCULATION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, WITH 45-50 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SEMICIRCLES. BASED ON THE WEAKENED STRUCTURE
EVIDENT IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND ASCAT-C DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS, HEDGED BELOW A PGTW DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATE
OF T4.0. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH INCREASING VWS (30-35 KNOTS). ADDITIONALLY,
SST VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO 24-22C AFTER TAU 48, WHICH
WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 160NM SPREAD IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNINGS
(WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 310900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 210131073449
2021013106 15P ANA 006 03 180 07 SATL SYNP 040
T000 188S 1782E 065 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 025 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 120 SE QD 060 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 201S 1785E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
T024 213S 1790E 055 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
T036 225S 1799E 050 R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
T048 243S 1786W 045 R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 283S 1740W 035 R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 324S 1685W 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 18.8S 178.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 178.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.1S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.3S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.5S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.3S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.3S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 32.4S 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 178.3E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1521012618 162S1684E 20
1521012700 162S1686E 25
1521012706 161S1688E 25
1521012712 161S1691E 25
1521012718 160S1693E 25
1521012800 156S1695E 25
1521012806 156S1701E 25
1521012812 157S1711E 25
1521012818 157S1717E 25
1521012900 157S1724E 30
1521012906 156S1732E 30
1521012912 153S1745E 30
1521012918 157S1757E 35
1521013000 161S1765E 40
1521013006 165S1770E 45
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013018 174S1780E 60
1521013018 174S1780E 60
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013100 181S1782E 65
1521013106 188S1782E 65
1521013106 188S1782E 65
1521013106 188S1782E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 310900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310600Z --- NEAR 18.8S 178.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 178.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.1S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.3S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.5S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.3S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 28.3S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 32.4S 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310900Z POSITION NEAR 19.1S 178.3E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 44 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE OBSCURING THE LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 310502Z SSMIS 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES
A DEFINED LLCC POSITIONED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AT NAUSORI (91683) INDICATE
NORTHERLY WINDS AT 21 KNOTS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE), WHICH ALSO SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 65
KNOTS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND A
310600Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 3.8 (ABOUT 61 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
SST VALUES (29-30C) REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO
ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 96 ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WITH INCREASING
VWS (30-35 KNOTS). ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
TO 24-22C AFTER TAU 48, WHICH WILL LEAD TO MORE RAPID WEAKENING AND
DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A
160-180NM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P
(SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 310300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 210131013129
2021013100 15P ANA 005 03 150 08 SATL 060
T000 182S 1786E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 025 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 120 SE QD 060 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 197S 1790E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 210S 1792E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
T036 220S 1799E 055 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
T048 235S 1791W 050 R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
T072 268S 1762W 040 R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 308S 1723W 030
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 178.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 178.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.7S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.0S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.0S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.5S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.8S 176.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.8S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 178.7E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1521012618 162S1684E 20
1521012700 162S1686E 25
1521012706 161S1688E 25
1521012712 161S1691E 25
1521012718 160S1693E 25
1521012800 156S1695E 25
1521012806 156S1701E 25
1521012812 157S1711E 25
1521012818 157S1717E 25
1521012900 157S1724E 30
1521012906 156S1732E 30
1521012912 153S1745E 30
1521012918 157S1757E 35
1521013000 161S1765E 40
1521013006 165S1770E 45
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013018 175S1782E 60
1521013018 175S1782E 60
1521013100 182S1786E 65
1521013100 182S1786E 65
1521013100 182S1786E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 310300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
310000Z --- NEAR 18.2S 178.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2S 178.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.7S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 21.0S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.0S 179.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.5S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 26.8S 176.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 30.8S 172.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
310300Z POSITION NEAR 18.6S 178.7E.
31JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 13 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES A WELL ORGANIZED, SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND
OVERSHOOTING TOPS NEAR THE CENTER. A 302235Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICTED A WEAK CENTER OVER SOUTHERN VITI LEVU WITH WELL
DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS TO THE SOUTH AND WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KTS) FROM PGTW (AUTOMATED
FIXES WERE OVERLAND AND THUS PROVIDED NO INTENSITY ESTIMATE). UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN A REGION WHICH IS
CURRENTLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VWS, STRONG POLEWARD AND
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28C) WATERS. TC 15P IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED TO THE EAST. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR. TC 15P HAS
LIKELY REACHED THE PEAK OF ITS INTENSITY BUT IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN
65 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 12. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU
48 PRIMARILY DUE TO SLOWLY INCREASING VWS. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH, LEADING TO DRAMATICALLY
INCREASED VWS VALUES, WHILE ALSO MOVING OVER INCREASINGLY COOLER
WATERS, LEADING TO A MUCH FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING. ADDITIONALLY, TC
16P IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND ULTIMATELY BE
ABSORBED WITHIN TC 15P WHICH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN EVEN
FURTHER AS THE CORE IS DISRUPTED BY THE MERGER WITH TC 16P. TC 15P
IS FORECAST TO FULLY DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 96.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK
SCENARIO BUT WITH SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK SPREAD, PARTICULARLY IN
THE LATER TAUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND LIES NEAR TO BUT SLOWER OVERALL, THAN THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU 48, AND LOW
CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 302100
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 210130191253
2021013018 15P ANA 004 02 130 09 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 175S 1782E 060 R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 140 SE QD 095 SW Q
D 205 NW QD
T012 185S 1787E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T024 197S 1788E 065 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 212S 1792E 065 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 225S 1799W 060 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
T072 255S 1775W 050 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T096 291S 1745W 040 R034 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 320S 1705W 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 178.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 178.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.5S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.7S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.2S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.5S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.5S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.1S 174.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.0S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 178.3E.
30JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
1521012618 162S1684E 20
1521012700 162S1686E 25
1521012706 161S1688E 25
1521012712 161S1691E 25
1521012718 160S1693E 25
1521012800 156S1695E 25
1521012806 156S1701E 25
1521012812 157S1711E 25
1521012818 157S1717E 25
1521012900 157S1724E 30
1521012906 156S1732E 30
1521012912 153S1745E 30
1521012918 157S1757E 35
1521013000 161S1765E 40
1521013006 165S1770E 45
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013012 169S1775E 50
1521013018 175S1782E 60
1521013018 175S1782E 60

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 302100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301800Z --- NEAR 17.5S 178.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5S 178.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.5S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 19.7S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.2S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 22.5S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 25.5S 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.1S 174.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 32.0S 170.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
302100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 178.3E.
30JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING SYSTEM, WITH DEEP
SYMMETRICAL CONVECTION FORMING A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM RAKIRAKI (91669) AND VIWA ISLAND (91670, AS WELL
AS ANIMATED RADAR DATA FROM FIJI WHICH DEPICTED A WEAK RADAR EYE,
LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. BASED ON THE RADAR
DATA, IT APPEARS THAT THE CENTER OF TC ANA CROSSED VERY CLOSE TO
RAKIRAKI, SO THE 1800Z PRESSURE READING OF 978MB, WHICH CORRESPONDS
TO ABOUT 60 KNOTS, LIKELY IS A VERY CLOSE ESTIMATION OF THE ACTUAL
CENTER PRESSURE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THUS
ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KTS), CLOSER TO
AN ADT ESIMATE OF T3.9 (63 KTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH LOW (5-10KT) VWS, AND STRONG
OUTFLOW BOTH EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD PROVIDED BY A SMALL POINT
SOURCE WHICH HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER TOP OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS
FIGHTING OFF THE PREDOMINANT WESTERLY SHEAR. SSTS (28-29C) ALSO
REMAIN CONDUCIVE TO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. IN THE NEAR-TERM,
INTERACTION WITH THE VITU LEVU WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL INTENSIFCATION
AND THUS INTENSITY IS FORECAST TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH TAU 12. ONCE
THE CENTER MOVES SOUTH OF THE MAIN ISLANDS, IT IS FORECAST TO AGAIN
INTENSIFY, PEAKING AT 65 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER THIS POINT, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR LOCATED TO THE EAST, WITH INCREASING
VWS STEADILY, IF SLOWLY INCREASING. AFTER TAU 48 THE SYSTEM BEGINS
TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS AND ENCOUNTERS HIGH (25-35 KT) VWS
ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG MID-LATITUDE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM
IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT OR BEFORE TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD CROSS-TRACK
AGREEMENT, WITH 130NM SPREAD AT TAU 48, AND DECREASING THEREAFTER.
HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES, PARTICUARLY
AFTER TAU 72, AS WOULD BE EXPECTED FOR A SYSTEM MOVING RAPIDLY INTO
THE SUBTROPICS, WITH UP TO 1300NM SPREAD AT TAU 120 BETWEEN THE GFS
AND ECMWF. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES JUST EAST AND SLIGHTLY
SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH
TAU 48 AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER, AS ALONG-TRACK SPREAD
INCREASES. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 310300Z, 310900Z, 311500Z AND 312100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (SIXTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 301500
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 210130133248
2021013012 15P ANA 003 01 130 05 SATL SYNP 045
T000 168S 1774E 050 R050 070 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 130 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 210 NW QD
T012 177S 1779E 055 R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 120 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 130 NW QD
T024 190S 1782E 055 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T036 205S 1785E 050 R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T048 220S 1790E 050 R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T072 247S 1790W 045 R034 180 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 276S 1761W 035 R034 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 020 NW QD
T120 302S 1726W 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 16.8S 177.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 177.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.7S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.0S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.5S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.0S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.7S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 27.6S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 30.2S 172.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 177.5E.
30JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.//
1521012618 162S1684E 20
1521012700 162S1686E 25
1521012706 161S1688E 25
1521012712 161S1691E 25
1521012718 160S1693E 25
1521012800 156S1695E 25
1521012806 156S1701E 25
1521012812 157S1711E 25
1521012818 157S1717E 25
1521012900 157S1724E 30
1521012906 156S1732E 30
1521012912 153S1745E 30
1521012918 157S1757E 35
1521013000 161S1765E 40
1521013006 165S1770E 45
1521013012 168S1774E 50
1521013012 168S1774E 50

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 301500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
301200Z --- NEAR 16.8S 177.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 177.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.7S 177.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.0S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.5S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 22.0S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 24.7S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 27.6S 176.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 30.2S 172.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
301500Z POSITION NEAR 17.0S 177.5E.
30JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A PARTIAL 300830Z ASCAT-
A IMAGE AND 30/12Z SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM VIWA ISLAND (91670) AND
RAKIRAKI (91669) SUPPORT THE INITIAL POSITION AND INDICATE 35-40
KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. ADDITIONALLY,
RAKIRAKI IS REPORTING A SLP OF 989.3MB, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT
45 KNOTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY
HIGHER BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0-3.5 (45-
55 KNOTS). A 300943Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A PARTIALLY-
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A MORE EXTENSIVE PRIMARY BAND OVER THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (29-30C) REMAIN CONDUCIVE. HOWEVER,
POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS WEAK DUE TO CONVERGENT FLOW OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT AND THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH HAS
PROPAGATED EASTWARD. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF
55 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT TURNS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) EXTENSION TO THE
EAST, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. AFTER
TAU 24, TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR WITH
INCREASING VWS (20-25 KNOTS) HINDERING DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 48, TC
15P SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONG VWS (30-35
KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AS WELL AS
SLIGHTLY COOLER SST (26-27C). IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO COOL SST (26-23C) AND SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72 LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WITH A 150NM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 302100Z, 310300Z, 310900Z AND 311500Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 300900
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 210130081052
2021013006 15P ANA 002 01 135 07 SATL 040
T000 166S 1770E 045 R034 165 NE QD 130 SE QD 075 SW QD 210 NW QD
T012 175S 1778E 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 120 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 150 NW QD
T024 185S 1781E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 140 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 130 NW QD
T036 201S 1782E 050 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T048 217S 1786E 050 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T072 243S 1798W 045 R034 200 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 272S 1770W 035 R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T120 303S 1737W 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 177.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 177.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.5S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.5S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.1S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.7S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.3S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.2S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.3S 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 177.2E.
30JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM
NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//
1521012618 162S1684E 20
1521012700 162S1686E 25
1521012706 161S1688E 25
1521012712 161S1691E 25
1521012718 160S1693E 25
1521012800 156S1695E 25
1521012806 156S1701E 25
1521012812 157S1711E 25
1521012818 157S1717E 25
1521012900 157S1724E 30
1521012906 156S1732E 30
1521012912 153S1745E 30
1521012918 157S1757E 35
1521013000 161S1765E 40
1521013006 166S1770E 45

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 300900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300600Z --- NEAR 16.6S 177.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.6S 177.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 17.5S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 18.5S 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 20.1S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 21.7S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 24.3S 179.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 27.2S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.3S 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300900Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 177.2E.
30JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121
NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING CORE WITH SPIRAL BANDING
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A 300515Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WEAK, DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL POSITION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ROBUST
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES (29-30C) REMAIN
CONDUCIVE. HOWEVER, POLEWARD OUTFLOW IS WEAK DUE TO CONVERGENT FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND THE LACK OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH, WHICH HAS PROPAGATED EASTWARD. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS AS IT
TURNS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) EXTENSION TO THE EAST, HOWEVER, INTERACTION WITH LAND SHOULD
LIMIT DEVELOPMENT. AFTER TAU 36, TC 15P IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR. THROUGH TAU 72, TC 15P SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS (30-35 KNOTS) ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AS WELL AS SLIGHTLY COOLER SST (26-27C). IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO COOL
SST (26-23C) AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH A 170NM SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 96
AND TAU 120. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300600Z IS 14 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 301500Z, 302100Z, 310300Z AND 310900Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 300300
WARNING ATCG MIL 15P SWP 210130024212
2021013000 15P FIFTEEN 001 01 140 08 SATL 060
T000 161S 1765E 035 R034 155 NE QD 075 SE QD 025 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 167S 1775E 050 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 050 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 178S 1783E 055 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 195S 1783E 050 R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 206S 1785E 050 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 238S 1793W 050 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 070 NW QD
T096 273S 1766W 040 R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T120 299S 1743W 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 16.1S 176.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 176.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.7S 177.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.8S 178.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.5S 178.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.6S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.8S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 27.3S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.9S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 176.8E.
30JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
162 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.
//
1521012618 162S1684E 20
1521012700 162S1686E 25
1521012706 161S1688E 25
1521012712 161S1691E 25
1521012718 160S1693E 25
1521012800 156S1695E 25
1521012806 156S1701E 25
1521012812 157S1711E 25
1521012818 157S1717E 25
1521012900 157S1724E 30
1521012906 156S1732E 30
1521012912 152S1743E 30
1521012918 155S1760E 30
1521013000 161S1765E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/
291451ZJAN2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (FIFTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 16.1S 176.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1S 176.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.7S 177.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 17.8S 178.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 19.5S 178.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 20.6S 178.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 23.8S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 27.3S 176.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 29.9S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 176.8E.
30JAN21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (FIFTEEN), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 162 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF
CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING FEATURES IN THE MSI LOOP. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35
KTS) AND THE PRESENCE OF 35KTS WINDS IN DATA FROM A 292206Z
ASCAT-C PASS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH WARM (29-30
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT. TC 14P IS DEVELOPING
WITHIN THE SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE AND IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AND MAKE LANDFALL OVER VITI LEVU, FIJI JUST PRIOR TO
TAU 24 WITH AN INTENSITY OF 55 KTS. THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY DUE TO MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD THROUGH TAU 48. AFTER TAU 48 THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK ALONG THE STEERING STR. HIGH
(30+ KTS) VWS AFTER TAU 72 WILL LEAD TO STEADY WEAKENING AND
LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODEL TRACKS PREDICTING
LANDFALL OVER VITI LEVU AND LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND
310300Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 291500).//
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