Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ZAZU-20
in Niue, Tonga

Global Telecommunication Service

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2020-12-16 09:53


Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 012
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 21.8S 168.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 168.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.5S 166.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 22.7S 168.3W.
16DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
173 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS THAT TC ZAZU HAS MAINTAINED ITS
CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DESPITE STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KTS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS, PGTW AND NFFN) AND A
CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.6 (57 KTS). TC 05P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST AND THROUGH A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY HIGH (50+ KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) WITH STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IMPINGING
ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 12, TC ZAZU WILL
COMPLETE ETT AS THE SYSTEM GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL JET. NUMERICAL MODEL
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ON THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 22 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P
(YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-12-16 02:23


Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 21.0S 170.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 170.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.7S 167.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 27.6S 165.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7S 169.6W.
16DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115
NM SOUTH OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS
A RESILIENT SYSTEM RETAINING ITS CORE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE DESPITE
STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 152004Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE
AND A PARTIAL 160028Z AMSR2 89GHZ IMAGE INDICATE CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND A 152058Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWING 50-55 KNOT
WINDS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 26-27C REMAIN
CONDUCIVE. TC 06P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW
BETWEEN A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 06P IS
UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITH STRONG WESTERLY
UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM,
AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM GAINS
FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND APPROACHES THE UPPER-LEVEL JET.
ADDITIONALLY, VWS WILL INCREASE TO 60-70 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AND SST
VALUES WILL COOL TO 23-25C WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO
50 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

>

2020-12-15 20:06


Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 20.2S 171.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 171.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.0S 169.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.2S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6S 170.7W.
15DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99
NM SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
HOWEVER, A 151744Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM CONSOLIDATED WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
55 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS), WHICH
IS CONSISTENT WITH THE IMPROVED STRUCTURE AND MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, SST VALUES OF 27C REMAIN CONDUCIVE. TC 06P IS FORECAST
TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH
TO THE WEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 06P IS UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) WITH STRONG WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW IMPINGING ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, AND IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 24
AS THE SYSTEM GAINS FRONTAL CHARACTERISTICS AND APPROACHES THE UPPER-
LEVEL JET. ADDITIONALLY, VWS WILL INCREASE TO 60-65 KNOTS BY TAU 24
AND SST VALUES WILL COOL TO 24-25C WHICH WILL SERVE TO WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM TO 45 KNOTS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

>

2020-12-15 14:00


Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 19.6S 172.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 172.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.1S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.5S 167.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 27.5S 165.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 20.0S 171.9W.
15DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 145
NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
151200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND
161500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-12-15 08:04


Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 19.0S 173.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.0S 173.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.6S 172.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 21.6S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.6S 167.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 28.0S 165.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 19.2S 173.2W.
15DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM
WEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
RELATIVELY COMPACT SYSTEM, WHICH IS STRUGGLING TO OFFSET
INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH EXPOSED SPIRAL
BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED
ON EXTRAPOLATION OF A WEAK LOW-EMISSIVITY REGION EVIDENT IN A
150450Z 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AS WELL AS ANALYSIS OF SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM VAVAU AND LIFUKA ISLANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 45 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES,
AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T2.9 (44 KNOTS) AND
A CIMSS SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS. TC ZAZU IS
TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEAST ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN ENVIRONMENT UNFAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT, WITH HIGH (>30 KNOTS) VWS, WARM (26-27 DEG C) SSTS
BEING OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACH MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. TC 05P IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 12, THEN TURN MORE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE EAST. THE GENERAL ENVIRONMENT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE TO TC 05P, WITH VWS
FORECAST TO INCREASE TO OVER 50 KNOTS BY TAU 24. THE RELATIVELY
WARM SSTS AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW WILL OFFSET THE VWS THROUGH
TAU 24, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY, BUT THEREAFTER
AS THE VWS OVERPOWERS THE OUTFLOW AND THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO COOLER
WATERS WITH SSTS BELOW 26 DEG CELSIUS. AS TC ZAZU APPROACHES THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG FRONT MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST NEAR TAU 36, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT), AND
IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL, WITH ONLY 75-90 NM SPREAD AT
TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS
PLACED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

>

2020-12-15 03:09


Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 18.8S 174.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 174.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.5S 172.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.9S 170.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.5S 168.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 26.9S 166.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 173.7W.
15DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233
NM WEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED
OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 142025Z ASCAT-B IMAGE
THAT REVEALED AN ELONGATED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS
ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS, PGTW) AND T3.5 (55 KTS, KNES),
AND A 141911Z CIMSS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 51 KTS. TC ZAZU IS
TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
EAST AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
(26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND FAIR EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 BEFORE TURNING TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THROUGH TAU 24 THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH
STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT PARTIALLY OFFSETTING THE HIGH VWS ALLOWING
THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KTS BY THIS TIME.
THEREAFTER, HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS AND COOLING SST (< 26 CELSIUS) WILL
OVERPOWER THE ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND LEAD TO A WEAKENING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC ZAZU
APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36 AND SUBSEQUENTLY COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48
AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH.
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVERALL AND
LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND
160300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

>

2020-12-14 20:57


Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 174.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 174.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.4S 173.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.5S 171.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.6S 169.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 25.8S 167.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0S 174.0W.
14DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 244
NM WEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 150900Z AND 152100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//

>

2020-12-14 14:12


Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 005//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141351ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 18.8S 174.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 200 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8S 174.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.3S 174.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.1S 172.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.5S 170.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.7S 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 174.4W.
14DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
262 NM WEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE
BANDING FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP AND THE CONVECTIVE FEATURES
EVIDENT IN A 140915Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF
45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KTS, PGTW) AND
T3.5 (55 KTS, KNES), A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41 KTS) AND A 140913Z CIMSS SATCON INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS. TC ZAZU IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THROUGH A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY
CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST. IN THE NEAR TERM, THE
STEERING RIDGE WILL REPOSITION FARTHER TO THE EAST DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH AN AMPLIFYING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH POSITIONED TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS COMPLEX TROUGH-RIDGE INTERACTION WILL RESULT
IN A HIGH-AMPLITUDE STEERING PATTERN AFTER TAU 24 WHICH WILL
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH TAU 24 THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KTS BY THIS TIME. THEREAFTER, HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS
AND COOLING SST (< 26 CELSIUS) WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC ZAZU
APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AFTER TAU 36, IT WILL BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AND SUBSEQUENTLY COMPLETE ETT BY
TAU 48 AS IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

>

2020-12-14 09:32


Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 004//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/140752ZDEC2020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 18.3S 174.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 174.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.9S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.5S 173.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.5S 171.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 22.2S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 27.3S 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 174.3W.
14DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (ZAZU), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 255 NM WEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL
BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
THAT IS OBSCURED BY BUILDING CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING
FEATURES IN THE EIR LOOP AND THE CONVECTIVE FEATURES EVIDENT
IN A TIMELY 140644Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 45 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0
(45 KTS, PGTW AND ABRF) AND T3.5 (55 KTS, KNES), A CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41 KTS)
AND A 140114Z CIMSS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS. TC
ZAZU IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND THROUGH A MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY
CONVERGENT FLOW ALOFT TO THE NORTHWEST. IN THE NEAR TERM,
THE STEERING RIDGE WILL REPOSITION FARTHER TO THE EAST DUE
TO INTERACTION WITH AN AMPLIFYING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS COMPLEX TROUGH-RIDGE
INTERACTION WILL RESULT IN A HIGH-AMPLITUDE STEERING PATTERN
AFTER TAU 24 WHICH WILL ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THROUGH TAU 36
THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY FAVORABLE AND ALLOW
THE SYSTEM TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 60 KTS BY THIS TIME.
THEREAFTER, HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS AND COOLING SST
(< 26 CELSIUS) WILL LEAD TO A WEAKENING TREND THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS TC ZAZU APPROACHES THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE AFTER TAU 48, IT WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AND SUBSEQUENTLY COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 72 AS
IT BECOMES FULLY EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OVERALL AND LENDS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-12-14 03:23


Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 17.9S 174.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 174.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.3S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 18.9S 173.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.6S 172.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.1S 170.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 25.6S 167.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 18.0S 174.1W.
14DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE, ON VARIOUS AGENCY FIXES AND 132245Z GMI IMAGERY.
THE INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING
AGENCIES. TC 06P IS TRACKING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE EAST. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME MORE PRONOUNCED OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS, PARTICULARLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
REORIENT AND RECEDE EASTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE SOUTH
AMPLIFIES. STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN DURING THIS PERIOD, AND FORWARD
TRACK SPEED WILL CONTINUE TO SLOW. AFTER TAU 24, A DEVELOPING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND APPROACH TC 06P FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND DEVELOPING RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST BY TAU 36. BY TAU 4
8, EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION WILL BEGIN AS TC 06P BEGINS TO MERGE WITH THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO T
HE SOUTHWEST. TC 06P WILL COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 72. ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION
IS EXPECTED IN THE NEAR-TERM UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (
15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28C). AFTER
TAU 48, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DRIVE A WEAKENING TREND, ALTHOUGH BAROCLINIC INTERACTI
VE WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT STORM INTENSITY AROUND THAT POINT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD OV
ERALL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEI
GHT AT 140000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z. REFER TO TROPIC
AL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX HOURLY UPDATES.//

>

2020-12-13 21:04


Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 17.7S 173.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.7S 173.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 18.3S 174.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 18.7S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.4S 173.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.6S 171.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 24.8S 167.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 17.8S 173.9W.
13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT SATELLITE FIXES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES AND 131810Z
SSMIS IMAGERY, WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS
CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 FROM KNES AND
PGTW. TC 06P HAS TURNED POLEWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. THIS STEERING
RIDGE IS REORIENTING AND RECEDING EASTWARD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
TO THE SOUTH AMPLIFIES. WITH THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE,
STEERING FLOW WILL WEAKEN, AND THE FORWARD TRACK SPEED FOR TC 06P IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEREAFTER, A DEVELOPING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND APPROACH TC 06P FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE CYCLONE WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD IN THE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE DEVELOPING TROUGH AND RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST AND
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION, BY TAU 72, AS IT MERGES WITH THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW PATTERN. ONLY MODEST INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED
IN THE NEAR-TERM UNDER THE INFLUENCES OF FAVORABLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MARGINALLY
SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28C). AFTER TAU 48,
INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL DRIVE A WEAKENING TREND,
ALTHOUGH BAROCLINIC INTERACTIVE WILL BEGIN TO SUPPORT STORM
INTENSITY AROUND THAT POINT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
OVERALL AGREEMENT AND CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK IS
HIGH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

>

2020-12-13 15:01


Original Message :

WTPS32 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130621ZDEC2020//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131351ZDEC2020//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT. REF B IS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 17.0S 173.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0S 173.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 18.0S 174.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 18.5S 174.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 19.0S 174.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 19.9S 172.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.4S 168.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 27.9S 164.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 173.7W.
13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06P (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
225 NM SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CONVECTIVE
SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KTS AND IS HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS, PGTW AND KNES) DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF 35 KTS WINDS IN DATA FROM A 130936Z ASCAT-B PASS. TC 06P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP LAYER
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND
WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION AND SUPPORT GRADUAL
INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KTS BY THIS TIME. THEREAFTER, THE
STEERING RIDGE WILL BEGIN A GRADUAL EASTWARD RETREAT DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING
FROM THE WEST. AS THE RIDGE RE-POSITIONS AND BUILDS TO THE EAST
THE STORM MOTION WILL TURN FROM SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD
AFTER TAU 24. GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TAU 48 AND LEAD TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 55 KTS BY THAT TIME.
THEREAFTER, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
(ETT) AS IT APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN
DUE TO HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
35 KTS AND COMPLETE ETT. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 WITH SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE
THEREAFTER. THIS DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IN THE LATER
TAUS LENDS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNINGS (WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 130630).//

>