Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for YASA-20
in Fiji,

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 200300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 201220021700
2020122000 05P YASA 031 01 210 06 SATL 020
T000 233S 1781W 050 R050 000 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 165 SE QD 135 SW Q
D 095 NW QD
T012 241S 1787W 045 R034 105 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 031
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 23.3S 178.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 178.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.1S 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 178.2W.
20DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 369
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z
IS 20 FEET.
//
0520121018 120S1683E 25
0520121100 122S1686E 25
0520121106 124S1688E 25
0520121112 125S1690E 25
0520121118 126S1699E 25
0520121200 118S1713E 25
0520121206 123S1725E 30
0520121212 134S1733E 35
0520121218 142S1737E 35
0520121300 151S1733E 40
0520121306 153S1730E 45
0520121312 155S1727E 45
0520121318 157S1723E 55
0520121318 157S1723E 55
0520121400 158S1719E 60
0520121400 158S1719E 60
0520121406 157S1718E 60
0520121406 157S1718E 60
0520121412 155S1719E 65
0520121412 155S1719E 65
0520121412 155S1719E 65
0520121418 152S1722E 85
0520121418 152S1722E 85
0520121418 152S1722E 85
0520121500 150S1725E 95
0520121500 150S1725E 95
0520121500 150S1725E 95
0520121506 149S1727E 110
0520121506 149S1727E 110
0520121506 149S1727E 110
0520121512 148S1731E 120
0520121512 148S1731E 120
0520121512 148S1731E 120
0520121518 147S1735E 135
0520121518 147S1735E 135
0520121518 147S1735E 135
0520121600 146S1741E 140
0520121600 146S1741E 140
0520121600 146S1741E 140
0520121606 150S1750E 140
0520121606 150S1750E 140
0520121606 150S1750E 140
0520121612 152S1756E 140
0520121612 152S1756E 140
0520121612 152S1756E 140
0520121618 156S1767E 135
0520121618 156S1767E 135
0520121618 156S1767E 135
0520121700 160S1777E 130
0520121700 160S1777E 130
0520121700 160S1777E 130
0520121706 165S1787E 115
0520121706 165S1787E 115
0520121706 165S1787E 115
0520121712 170S1797E 100
0520121712 170S1797E 100
0520121712 170S1797E 100
0520121718 179S1794W 85
0520121718 179S1794W 85
0520121718 179S1794W 85
0520121800 183S1789W 75
0520121800 183S1789W 75
0520121800 183S1789W 75
0520121806 190S1782W 70
0520121806 190S1782W 70
0520121806 190S1782W 70
0520121812 195S1780W 65
0520121812 195S1780W 65
0520121812 195S1780W 65
0520121818 203S1780W 55
0520121818 203S1780W 55
0520121900 209S1780W 45
0520121906 214S1780W 50
0520121912 221S1778W 50
0520121912 221S1778W 50
0520121918 228S1778W 50
0520121918 228S1778W 50
0520122000 233S1781W 50
0520122000 233S1781W 50

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 031
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
200000Z --- NEAR 23.3S 178.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.3S 178.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.1S 178.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
200300Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 178.2W.
20DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 369 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED
WITHIN AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN RECENT VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY A
191930Z SCATSAT PASS AND RECENT AUTOMATED INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
CIMSS AND CIRA. TC 05P IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE
SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY TRANSITIONED INTO A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT
PASSES OVER COOLER WATER AND INTERACTS WITH UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING.
FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER-
TROUGHING HAVE ENABLED TC 05P TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS DESPITE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (OVER 30 KNOTS) AND
PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER (25-26C). FULL TRANSITION INTO A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE IS IMMINENT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW
THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING FLOW SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS,
AND WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN INTENSITY OR WEAKEN ONLY SLIGHTLY WITH
PERSISTENCE OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS DISCUSSED ABOVE. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 12, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 20 FEET.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 22.8S 178.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 178.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 23.7S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 24.5S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 178.2W.
19DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED WITHIN THE
CENTER OF AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION EVIDENT IN 191800Z
VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND
KNES AND A 50 KNOT 191736Z CIMSS SATCON AUTOMATED INTENSITY
ESTIMATE.
TC 05P HAS TRACKED STEADILY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE SOUTH
AND EAST. STRONG, AND INCREASING, WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
DISPLACED LIMITED REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CONVECTIVE AND CORE TEMPERATURE STRUCTURE OF
TC 05P ARE STEADILY BECOMING SUBTROPICAL. TC 05P WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTHWESTWARD FOLLOWING THE STEERING FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH
RIDGING TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE SYSTEM COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAVORABLE BAROCLINIC INTERACTION
WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ENABLE THE
SYSTEM TO NEARLY MAINTAIN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE 24-HOUR FORECAST
PERIOD, OFFSETTING THE NEGATIVE IMPACTS OF SUSTAINED, STRONG
VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE NEAR-TERM TRACK. THE CURRENT TRACK
FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 192100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 201219203758
2020121918 05P YASA 030 01 195 07 SATL 030
T000 228S 1780W 050 R050 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 160 SE QD 115 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 237S 1786W 050 R050 000 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 245S 1793W 045 R034 085 NE QD 135 SE QD 095 SW QD 055 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 030
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 22.8S 178.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 195 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8S 178.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 23.7S 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 24.5S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 178.2W.
19DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 347
NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 200900Z.
//
0520121018 120S1683E 25
0520121100 122S1686E 25
0520121106 124S1688E 25
0520121112 125S1690E 25
0520121118 126S1699E 25
0520121200 118S1713E 25
0520121206 123S1725E 30
0520121212 134S1733E 35
0520121218 142S1737E 35
0520121300 151S1733E 40
0520121306 153S1730E 45
0520121312 155S1727E 45
0520121318 157S1723E 55
0520121318 157S1723E 55
0520121400 158S1719E 60
0520121400 158S1719E 60
0520121406 157S1718E 60
0520121406 157S1718E 60
0520121412 155S1719E 65
0520121412 155S1719E 65
0520121412 155S1719E 65
0520121418 152S1722E 85
0520121418 152S1722E 85
0520121418 152S1722E 85
0520121500 150S1725E 95
0520121500 150S1725E 95
0520121500 150S1725E 95
0520121506 149S1727E 110
0520121506 149S1727E 110
0520121506 149S1727E 110
0520121512 148S1731E 120
0520121512 148S1731E 120
0520121512 148S1731E 120
0520121518 147S1735E 135
0520121518 147S1735E 135
0520121518 147S1735E 135
0520121600 146S1741E 140
0520121600 146S1741E 140
0520121600 146S1741E 140
0520121606 150S1750E 140
0520121606 150S1750E 140
0520121606 150S1750E 140
0520121612 152S1756E 140
0520121612 152S1756E 140
0520121612 152S1756E 140
0520121618 156S1767E 135
0520121618 156S1767E 135
0520121618 156S1767E 135
0520121700 160S1777E 130
0520121700 160S1777E 130
0520121700 160S1777E 130
0520121706 165S1787E 115
0520121706 165S1787E 115
0520121706 165S1787E 115
0520121712 170S1797E 100
0520121712 170S1797E 100
0520121712 170S1797E 100
0520121718 179S1794W 85
0520121718 179S1794W 85
0520121718 179S1794W 85
0520121800 183S1789W 75
0520121800 183S1789W 75
0520121800 183S1789W 75
0520121806 190S1782W 70
0520121806 190S1782W 70
0520121806 190S1782W 70
0520121812 195S1780W 65
0520121812 195S1780W 65
0520121812 195S1780W 65
0520121818 203S1780W 55
0520121818 203S1780W 55
0520121900 209S1780W 45
0520121906 214S1780W 50
0520121912 221S1778W 50
0520121912 221S1778W 50
0520121918 228S1780W 50
0520121918 228S1780W 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 191500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 22.1S 177.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 177.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.0S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.1S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.2S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 177.8W.
19DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322
NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANMIATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE HIGH VWS IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ITS
TOLL ON TC 05P, WITH THE PREVIOUSLY FLARING CONVECTION NOW BEING
SHEARED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION IN A 190912Z ASCAT-B PASS AND A WELL DEFINED LOW
EMISSIVITY REGION IN A 191050Z GPM 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE,
HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESIMATES
OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES, IN LIGHT OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
ASCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED 50-55 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. TC O5P IS MOVING GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR LOCATED TO THE EAST AND IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS AS THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY LOWER
AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES DECAPITATED DUE TO THE HIGH VWS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FINGER OF THE JET STREAM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. BY TAU 36, TC 05P WILL BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TROUGH, AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STRONG SUBTROPICAL LOW.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST, HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT CAPTURING THE PREVIOUS SIX
HOUR MOVEMENT TOWARDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT
MOVEMENT, THE JTWC TRACK LIES TO THE EAST OF ALL THE AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE AT TAU 12, THEN HUGS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 20 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 191500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 201219135914
2020121912 05P YASA 029 01 165 07 SATL 040
T000 221S 1778W 050 R050 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 230S 1777W 050 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 241S 1785W 045 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 252S 1793W 045 R034 110 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 029
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 22.1S 177.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1S 177.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 23.0S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.1S 178.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 25.2S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
SUBTROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
191500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 177.8W.
19DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 322
NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANMIATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE HIGH VWS IS BEGINNING TO TAKE ITS TOLL ON TC 05P, WITH THE PREVIOUSLY FLARING CONVECTION NOW BEING SHEARED WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION IN A 190912Z ASCAT-B PASS AND A WELL DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION IN A 191050Z GPM 37GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESIMATES OF T3.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES, IN LIGHT OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ASCAT PASS WHICH INDICATED 50-55 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC. TC O5P IS MOVING GENERALLY SOUTHWARDS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP STR LOCATED TO THE EAST AND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS THE LEVEL OF THE STEERING FLOW BECOMES PROGRESSIVELY LOWER AFTER THE SYSTEM BECOMES DECAPITATED DUE TO THE HIGH VWS ASSOCIATED WITH A FINGER OF THE JET STREAM AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. BY TAU 36, TC 05P WILL BECOME FULLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE TROUGH, AND COMPLETE TRANSITION TO A STRONG SUBTROPICAL LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IS GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, HOWEVER THEY ARE NOT CAPTURING THE PREVIOUS SIX HOUR MOVEMENT TOWARDS TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. IN LIGHT OF THE RECENT MOVEMENT, THE JTWC TRACK LIES TO THE EAST OF ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE AT TAU 12, THEN HUGS THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.//
0520121018 120S1683E 25
0520121100 122S1686E 25
0520121106 124S1688E 25
0520121112 125S1690E 25
0520121118 126S1699E 25
0520121200 118S1713E 25
0520121206 123S1725E 30
0520121212 134S1733E 35
0520121218 142S1737E 35
0520121300 151S1733E 40
0520121306 153S1730E 45
0520121312 155S1727E 45
0520121318 157S1723E 55
0520121318 157S1723E 55
0520121400 158S1719E 60
0520121400 158S1719E 60
0520121406 157S1718E 60
0520121406 157S1718E 60
0520121412 155S1719E 65
0520121412 155S1719E 65
0520121412 155S1719E 65
0520121418 152S1722E 85
0520121418 152S1722E 85
0520121418 152S1722E 85
0520121500 150S1725E 95
0520121500 150S1725E 95
0520121500 150S1725E 95
0520121506 149S1727E 110
0520121506 149S1727E 110
0520121506 149S1727E 110
0520121512 148S1731E 120
0520121512 148S1731E 120
0520121512 148S1731E 120
0520121518 147S1735E 135
0520121518 147S1735E 135
0520121518 147S1735E 135
0520121600 146S1741E 140
0520121600 146S1741E 140
0520121600 146S1741E 140
0520121606 150S1750E 140
0520121606 150S1750E 140
0520121606 150S1750E 140
0520121612 152S1756E 140
0520121612 152S1756E 140
0520121612 152S1756E 140
0520121618 156S1767E 135
0520121618 156S1767E 135
0520121618 156S1767E 135
0520121700 160S1777E 130
0520121700 160S1777E 130
0520121700 160S1777E 130
0520121706 165S1787E 115
0520121706 165S1787E 115
0520121706 165S1787E 115
0520121712 170S1797E 100
0520121712 170S1797E 100
0520121712 170S1797E 100
0520121718 179S1794W 85
0520121718 179S1794W 85
0520121718 179S1794W 85
0520121800 183S1789W 75
0520121800 183S1789W 75
0520121800 183S1789W 75
0520121806 190S1782W 70
0520121806 190S1782W 70
0520121806 190S1782W 70
0520121812 195S1780W 65
0520121812 195S1780W 65
0520121812 195S1780W 65
0520121818 203S1780W 55
0520121818 203S1780W 55
0520121900 209S1780W 45
0520121906 214S1780W 50
0520121912 221S1778W 50
0520121912 221S1778W 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 161500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 201216133936
2020121612 05P YASA 017 02 110 06 SATL 030
T000 152S 1756E 140 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 161S 1773E 140 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 174S 1790E 125 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 189S 1796W 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 201S 1790W 100 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 224S 1791W 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 245S 1794E 055 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T120 260S 1778E 040 R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.2S 175.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 175.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.1S 177.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.4S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.9S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.1S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.4S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.5S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 26.0S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 176.0E.
16DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237
NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0520121018 120S1683E 25
0520121100 122S1686E 25
0520121106 124S1688E 25
0520121112 125S1690E 25
0520121118 126S1699E 25
0520121200 118S1713E 25
0520121206 123S1725E 30
0520121212 134S1733E 35
0520121218 142S1737E 35
0520121300 151S1733E 40
0520121306 153S1730E 45
0520121312 155S1727E 45
0520121318 157S1723E 55
0520121318 157S1723E 55
0520121400 158S1719E 60
0520121400 158S1719E 60
0520121406 157S1718E 60
0520121406 157S1718E 60
0520121412 155S1719E 65
0520121412 155S1719E 65
0520121412 155S1719E 65
0520121418 152S1722E 85
0520121418 152S1722E 85
0520121418 152S1722E 85
0520121500 150S1725E 95
0520121500 150S1725E 95
0520121500 150S1725E 95
0520121506 149S1727E 110
0520121506 149S1727E 110
0520121506 149S1727E 110
0520121512 148S1731E 120
0520121512 148S1731E 120
0520121512 148S1731E 120
0520121518 147S1735E 135
0520121518 147S1735E 135
0520121518 147S1735E 135
0520121600 146S1741E 140
0520121600 146S1741E 140
0520121600 146S1741E 140
0520121606 150S1750E 140
0520121606 150S1750E 140
0520121606 150S1750E 140
0520121612 152S1756E 140
0520121612 152S1756E 140
0520121612 152S1756E 140

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 15.2S 175.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.2S 175.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 16.1S 177.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.4S 179.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.9S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.1S 179.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.4S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 24.5S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 26.0S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 176.0E.
16DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
237 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO A 20 NM EYE WITH TRANSVERSE BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE EYE IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 140 KTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140 KTS,
PGTW AND KNES) AND A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.8 (135 KTS). TC YASA IS TRACKING ALONG
THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (10-15 KTS)
VWS, AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. CONTINUED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC YASA TO MAINTAIN
AN INTENSITY OF 140 KTS THROUGH TAU 12. THEREAFTER, VWS WILL
INCREASE AND LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. TC YASA
WILL TRACK ALONG THE WEST COAST OF VANUA LEVU, FIJI BETWEEN TAU 12
AND TAU 24 AND WEAKEN TO 125 KTS BY THAT TIME. THEREAFTER,
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING TO 100 KTS
BY TAU 48. AT THIS TIME, TC YASA WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AS THE CURRENT
STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN INCOMING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS CHANGE IN STEERING WILL
RESULT IN A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING VWS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING
TO 80 KTS BY TAU 72 AND HIGH (30+ KTS) VWS THEREAFTER, COUPLED WITH
COOL (< 26 CELSIUS) SST, WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 40 KTS
BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT
WITH A 75 NM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24 THAT
INCREASES TO 630 NM BY TAU 120. THE MODEL TRACK ENVELOPE IS BOUND
BY THE GFS SOLUTIONS TO THE WEST AND THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO THE
EAST WITH THE UKMET, GALWEM AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS CLOSER TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. WHILE THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK BRINGS THE
SYSTEM CENTER BETWEEN THE ISLANDS OF VITI LEVU AND VANUA LEVU, THE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS YIELDS THE POSSIBILITY OF LANDFALL ON
EITHER ISLAND WITH THE GFS AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS TRACKING OVER VITI
LEVU AND ECMWF, UKMET AND GALWEM MODELS PROVIDING TRACKS THAT BRING
THE VORTEX OVER VANUA LEVU. THIS SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
THROUGH TAU 24 AND LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER AS THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
FURTHER DIVERGE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161200Z IS 38
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z, 170900Z AND 171500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 160900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 201216082028
2020121606 05P YASA 016 02 115 10 SATL 020
T000 150S 1750E 140 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 115 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 158S 1765E 140 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 166S 1782E 130 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T036 180S 1797E 120 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 197S 1793W 110 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 220S 1791W 090 R064 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 240S 1794E 065 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 254S 1778E 050 R050 010 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 175.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 175.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.8S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.6S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.0S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.7S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.0S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.0S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 25.4S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 175.4E.
16DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 270
NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0520121018 120S1683E 25
0520121100 122S1686E 25
0520121106 124S1688E 25
0520121112 125S1690E 25
0520121118 126S1699E 25
0520121200 118S1713E 25
0520121206 123S1725E 30
0520121212 134S1733E 35
0520121218 142S1737E 35
0520121300 151S1733E 40
0520121306 153S1730E 45
0520121312 155S1727E 45
0520121318 157S1723E 55
0520121318 157S1723E 55
0520121400 158S1719E 60
0520121400 158S1719E 60
0520121406 157S1718E 60
0520121406 157S1718E 60
0520121412 155S1719E 65
0520121412 155S1719E 65
0520121412 155S1719E 65
0520121418 152S1722E 85
0520121418 152S1722E 85
0520121418 152S1722E 85
0520121500 150S1725E 95
0520121500 150S1725E 95
0520121500 150S1725E 95
0520121506 149S1727E 110
0520121506 149S1727E 110
0520121506 149S1727E 110
0520121512 148S1731E 120
0520121512 148S1731E 120
0520121512 148S1731E 120
0520121518 147S1735E 135
0520121518 147S1735E 135
0520121518 147S1735E 135
0520121600 146S1741E 140
0520121600 146S1741E 140
0520121600 146S1741E 140
0520121606 150S1750E 140
0520121606 150S1750E 140
0520121606 150S1750E 140
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 15.0S 175.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 175.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.8S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.6S 178.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 18.0S 179.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.7S 179.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.0S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 24.0S 179.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 25.4S 177.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 175.4E.
16DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
270 NM NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING
INTO A SYMMETRIC, 20 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI
LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KTS BASED ON
MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 (140
KTS, PGTW, NFFN AND KNES). TC YASA IS TRACKING ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED
TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (5-10 KTS)
VWS AND ROBUST POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. CONTINUED
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC 05P TO MAINTAIN
A 140 KTS INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. THEREAFTER, VWS WILL
INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND LEAD TO A GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM.
IN ADDITION, ANALYSIS OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAS COMMENCED WHICH MAY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
FURTHER IN THE EARLIER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. BY TAU 24
TC YASA WILL WEAKEN TO 130 KTS, AT WHICH POINT IT WILL BEGIN TO
TRACK ALONG THE WEST COAST OF VANUA LEVU, FIJI. THEREAFTER,
MODERATE (15-25 KTS) VWS WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING TO 110
KTS BY TAU 48. AT THIS TIME, TC 05P WILL BEGIN TO TRACK ALONG THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AS THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH AN
INCOMING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST. THIS CHANGE IN
STEERING WILL RESULT IN A GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. INCREASING VWS THEREAFTER
WILL LEAD TO FURTHER WEAKENING TO 90 KTS BY 72. HIGH (30+ KTS)
VWS BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120, COUPLED WITH COOL (< 26 CELSIUS)
SST, WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 50 KTS BY TAU 120.
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT OVERALL WITH
A 90 NM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24 THAT
INCREASES TO 500 NM BY TAU 120. THE MODEL TRACK ENVELOPE IS BOUND
BY THE GFS SOLUTIONS TO THE WEST AND THE ECMWF SOLUTIONS TO THE
EAST WITH THE UKMET AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS CLOSER TO THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED
NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 160600Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z
AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 141500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 201214132711
2020121412 05P YASA 009 02 335 02 SATL 060
T000 156S 1716E 065 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 152S 1717E 075 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 149S 1721E 085 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 148S 1728E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 152S 1740E 095 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 170S 1772E 100 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 198S 1792E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 229S 1796W 075 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 171.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 171.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.2S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.9S 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.8S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.2S 174.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.0S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.8S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.9S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 171.6E.
14DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 418
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0520121018 120S1683E 25
0520121100 122S1686E 25
0520121106 124S1688E 25
0520121112 125S1690E 25
0520121118 126S1699E 25
0520121200 118S1713E 25
0520121206 123S1725E 30
0520121212 134S1733E 35
0520121218 142S1737E 35
0520121300 151S1733E 40
0520121306 153S1730E 45
0520121312 155S1727E 45
0520121318 157S1723E 55
0520121318 157S1723E 55
0520121400 159S1720E 60
0520121400 159S1720E 60
0520121406 158S1717E 65
0520121406 158S1717E 65
0520121406 158S1717E 65
0520121412 156S1716E 65
0520121412 156S1716E 65
0520121412 156S1716E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 009//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141352ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 171.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 171.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.2S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.9S 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.8S 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 15.2S 174.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 17.0S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.8S 179.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 22.9S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 171.6E.
14DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
418 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS
OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE FEATURES IN THE EIR
LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KTS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS, PGTW) AND T4.5 (77 KTS, KNES), A
CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.8 (61 KTS) AND A 140721Z CIMSS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
60 KTS. TC YASA IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND THROUGH AN
OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) AND WELL ESTABLISHED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
ALOFT. INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STEERING STR AND AN INCOMING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THROUGH TAU 12, TC 05P IS FORECAST TO
TRACK GENERALLY EQUATORWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE RETREATS TO
THE WEST. BY TAU 24, TC 05P WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY EASTWARD
TRACK AS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH BECOMES THE
PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. DURING THIS INITIAL TRACK, TC
YASA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO CONTINUED FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL REACH AN
INTENSITY OF 95 KTS AND BEGIN TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD
THEREAFTER ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A BUILDING STR POSITIONED TO
THE SOUTHEAST. TC 05P WILL THEN REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 100
KTS BY TAU 72 PRIOR TO MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST
OF FIJI. INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN OF THE ISLAND
AND MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VWS THEREAFTER WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
TO 75 KTS BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS A
250 NM ACROSS TRACK SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, PRIOR
TO LANDFALL, THAT INCREASES TO 450 NM BY TAU 120. THE TRACK
ENVELOPE IS BOUNDED BY GFS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS THAT LIE TO THE WEST, AND UKMET DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAT LIE TO THE EAST. THE GALWEM, NAVGEM AND
ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS CLUSTER CLOSER TOGETHER NEAR THE JTWC
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 140900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 201214074648
2020121406 05P YASA 008 02 295 02 SATL 060
T000 158S 1717E 065 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 154S 1716E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 150S 1718E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 148S 1722E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 148S 1732E 100 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 162S 1760E 105 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 189S 1786E 090 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 221S 1800E 080 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 171.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 171.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.4S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.0S 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.8S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.8S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.2S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.9S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.1S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 171.7E.
14DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 409
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0520121018 120S1683E 25
0520121100 122S1686E 25
0520121106 124S1688E 25
0520121112 125S1690E 25
0520121118 126S1699E 25
0520121200 118S1713E 25
0520121206 123S1725E 30
0520121212 134S1733E 35
0520121218 142S1737E 35
0520121300 151S1733E 40
0520121306 153S1730E 45
0520121312 155S1727E 45
0520121318 157S1723E 55
0520121318 157S1723E 55
0520121400 159S1719E 60
0520121400 159S1719E 60
0520121406 158S1717E 65
0520121406 158S1717E 65
0520121406 158S1717E 65

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 008//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/141352ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 171.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 171.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.4S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.0S 171.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.8S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 14.8S 173.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.2S 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 18.9S 178.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 22.1S 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 171.7E.
14DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE(TC) 05P (YASA), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 409 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
SPIRAL BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN OBSCURED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION THROUGH
THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 140220Z AMSR2 36 GHZ IMAGE
AND THE CONVECTIVE FEATURES IN A TIMELY 140504Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KTS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS, PGTW AND ABRF) AND T4.5 (77 KTS,
KNES). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HEDGED TOWARDS THE PGTW AND
ABRF INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON A CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.8 (61 KTS) AND A
140206Z CIMSS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 65 KTS. TC YASA
IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH AND THROUGH AN OVERALL
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST), LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
AND WELL ESTABLISHED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT.
INTERACTION BETWEEN THE STEERING STR AND AN INCOMING
MIDLATITUDE TROUGH FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN A COMPLEX
STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THROUGH TAU 12, TC 05P IS FORECAST TO
TRACK GENERALLY EQUATORWARD AS THE STEERING RIDGE RETREATS
TO THE WEST. BY TAU 24, TC 05P WILL BEGIN A GENERALLY
EASTWARD TRACK AS NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH
BECOMES THE PREDOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM. DURING THIS
INITIAL TRACK, TC YASA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY DUE TO
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BY TAU 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL REACH AN INTENSITY OF 100 KTS AND BEGIN TO TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD THEREAFTER ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A
BUILDING STR POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST. TC 05P WILL THEN
REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105 KTS BY TAU 72 PRIOR TO MAKING
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST OF FIJI. INTERACTION WITH
THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN OF THE ISLAND AND MODERATE (20-25
KTS) VWS THEREAFTER WILL WEAKEN THE SYSTEM TO 80 KTS BY TAU
120. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT DUE
TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THERE IS A 260 NM
ACROSS TRACK SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72, PRIOR TO
LANDFALL, THAT INCREASES TO 500 NM BY TAU 120. THE TRACK
ENVELOPE IS BOUNDED BY GFS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MODEL
SOLUTIONS THAT LIE TO THE WEST, AND UKMET DETERMINISTIC AND
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS THAT LIE TO THE EAST. THE GALWEM, NAVGEM
AND ECMWF MODEL SOLUTIONS CLUSTER CLOSER TOGETHER NEAR THE
JTWC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z
IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND
150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (ZAZU) WARNINGS
(WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 140300
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 201214020500
2020121400 05P YASA 007 02 255 04 SATL 025
T000 158S 1719E 060 R050 025 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 156S 1714E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 152S 1712E 080 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 148S 1715E 090 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 146S 1722E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 154S 1743E 105 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 177S 1769E 105 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 209S 1787E 090 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 171.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 171.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.6S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.2S 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.8S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.6S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.4S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.7S 176.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.9S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 171.8E.
14DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0520121018 120S1683E 25
0520121100 122S1686E 25
0520121106 124S1688E 25
0520121112 125S1690E 25
0520121118 126S1699E 25
0520121200 118S1713E 25
0520121206 123S1725E 30
0520121212 134S1733E 35
0520121218 142S1737E 35
0520121300 151S1733E 40
0520121306 154S1729E 45
0520121312 156S1726E 45
0520121318 157S1723E 55
0520121318 157S1723E 55
0520121400 158S1719E 60
0520121400 158S1719E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 15.8S 171.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 171.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.6S 171.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.2S 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 14.8S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 14.6S 172.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 15.4S 174.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 17.7S 176.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 20.9S 178.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 171.8E.
14DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 236 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED,
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON VARIOUS AGENCY FIXES AND 132111Z METOP-A AND
132226Z METOP-B ASCAT DATA. THE INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY
THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT DATA AND A CONSENSUS OF MULTI-AGENCY
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED INTENSITY FIXES. TC 05P HAS CONTINUED
TO TRACK SLOWLY WESTWARD OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT
48 TO 72 HOURS, THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM WILL SHIFT AS THE
CURRENT STEERING RIDGE WEAKENS AND NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGING BUILDS TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DURING THIS STEERING TRANSITION PERIOD,
TC 05P WILL LOOP EASTWARD. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
TRACK STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE CONTINUOUS STEERING INFLUENCE
OF THE BUILDING RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT DEPICTIONS
OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PENDING LOOP AND SUBSEQUENT TRACK
VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. MODELS SOLUTIONS RANGE FROM THE GFS DETERMINISTIC
MODEL AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE,
WELL TO THE WEST OF FIJI, AND THE UKMET MODEL AND MOGREPS-G ENSEMBLE
MEAN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE, NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
FIJIAN ISLANDS. THE ECMWF DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS LIE
NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, AND HAS AGAIN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST. GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD,
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS ARE LIKELY
AS THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN EVOLVES. TC 07P WILL INTENSITY IN THE
NEAR-TERM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS) AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER
(28-29C). THE INTENSIFICATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO END AND REVERSE IN
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BEGINS TO INCREASE.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
06P (SIX) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 172.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 172.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.8S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.5S 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.1S 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.8S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.2S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.1S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.1S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 172.1E.
13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED,
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON RECENT FIXES FROM VARIOUS REPORTING AGENCIES
AND 131629Z SSMIS IMAGERY SHOWING A COMPACT MICROWAVE EYE.
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0 (45 KTS) TO T4.0 (65
KTS) AND EARLIER AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS DATA
SUPPORT THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 55 KTS. TC 05P IS TRACKING SLOWLY
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS, THE PRIMARY
STEERING MECHANISM WILL TRANSITION FROM THE CURRENT STEERING RIDGE
TO A BUILDING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENSION TO THE NORTHEAST.
DURING THIS STEERING TRANSITION PERIOD, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
LOOP EASTWARD, AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 72
AS RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST DOMINATES STEERING. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN BROAD AGREEMENT WITH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT
DEPICTIONS OF THE TIMING AND LOCATION OF THE PENDING LOOP AND
SUBSEQUENT TRACK VARY SIGNIFICANTLY. THE GFS AND GEFS ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS LIE WELL TO THE WEST OF FIJIAN ISLANDS, WHILE THE UKMET
SOLUTION LIES ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE ISLAND GROUP. THE ECMWF
DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS LIE NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE
ENVELOPE. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS, AND LIES SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE PREVIOUS JTWC FORECAST.
GIVEN NOTED MODEL SPREAD, TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND
FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE ANTICIPATED AS THE COMPLEX STEERING
PATTERN EVOLVES. STEADY INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY IN THE NEAR-TERM
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS) AND PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER (28-29C).
SLIGHT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY TAU 120 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BEGINS TO INCREASE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 19
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P (SIX) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 132100
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 201213202713
2020121318 05P YASA 006 02 250 03 SATL 020
T000 157S 1723E 055 R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 080 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T012 158S 1716E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 155S 1712E 075 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 151S 1712E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 148S 1717E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 152S 1736E 100 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 171S 1761E 100 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 201S 1780E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 15.7S 172.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 172.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 15.8S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.5S 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.1S 171.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 14.8S 171.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 15.2S 173.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 17.1S 176.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.1S 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 172.1E.
13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 259
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0520121018 120S1683E 25
0520121100 122S1686E 25
0520121106 124S1688E 25
0520121112 125S1690E 25
0520121118 126S1699E 25
0520121200 118S1713E 25
0520121206 123S1725E 30
0520121212 134S1733E 35
0520121218 142S1737E 35
0520121300 151S1733E 40
0520121306 154S1729E 45
0520121312 156S1726E 45
0520121318 157S1723E 55
0520121318 157S1723E 55

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 131500
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 201213151122
2020121312 05P YASA 005 02 250 03 SATL 060
T000 155S 1726E 045 R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 159S 1716E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T024 159S 1710E 060 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T036 155S 1707E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 150S 1707E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 148S 1720E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 160S 1745E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 188S 1765E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 15.5S 172.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 172.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.9S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.9S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.5S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.0S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 14.8S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.0S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.8S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 172.3E.
13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (YASA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 368
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0520121018 120S1683E 25
0520121100 122S1686E 25
0520121106 124S1688E 25
0520121112 125S1690E 25
0520121118 126S1699E 25
0520121200 118S1713E 25
0520121206 123S1725E 30
0520121212 134S1733E 35
0520121218 142S1737E 35
0520121300 151S1733E 40
0520121306 154S1729E 45
0520121312 155S1726E 45

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 005//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131352ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 172.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 172.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 15.9S 171.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 15.9S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 15.5S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 15.0S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 14.8S 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.0S 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 18.8S 176.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.7S 172.1E.
13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 381
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES PRESENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND IN A 131250Z GMI 37
GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KTS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (KNES AND NFFN, 45 KTS) AND T2.5 (PGTW, 35 KTS), AND A
050827Z CIMSS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 52 KTS. TC 05P IS
TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (28-29 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME, A REPOSITIONING OF THE
STEERING RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING FROM THE WEST. AS THE STR RETREATS TO
THE EAST, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT WILL WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO TRACK INITIALLY WESTWARD AFTER TAU 12, MAKE A BRIEF TURN
NORTHWARD AFTER TAU 24, THEN TRACK GENERALLY EASTWARD AFTER TAU 48.
BY TAU 72, THE STEERING RIDGE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
DRIVE THE VORTEX SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 90 KTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO CONTINUED
LOW VWS AND WARM SST UNTIL THIS TIME. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS
WILL SLOW THE INTENSIFICATON TREND, RESULTING IN A PEAK INTENSITY OF
95 KTS AT TAUS 96-120. THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE TROUGH-RIDGE
INTERACTION RESULTS IN A DYNAMIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 72
AND YIELDS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
SOUTHEASTWARD TURN. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH DEGREE
OF SPREAD IN NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK SOLTUIONS WHICH DEPICT A MAXIMUM
710 NM ACROSS TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 120. THIS LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06P
(SIX) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 130900
WARNING ATCG MIL 05P SWP 201213072154
2020121306 05P FIVE 004 01 250 06 SATL 060
T000 153S 1727E 045 R034 110 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 158S 1721E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T024 160S 1715E 055 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T036 159S 1710E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T048 154S 1710E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 152S 1719E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 167S 1740E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 192S 1764E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 172.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 172.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.8S 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.0S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.9S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.4S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.2S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.7S 174.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.2S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 172.6E.
13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 368
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
//
0520121018 120S1683E 25
0520121100 122S1686E 25
0520121106 124S1688E 25
0520121112 125S1690E 25
0520121118 126S1699E 25
0520121200 118S1713E 25
0520121206 123S1725E 30
0520121212 134S1733E 35
0520121218 142S1737E 35
0520121300 151S1733E 40
0520121306 153S1727E 45

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 15.3S 172.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 172.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 15.8S 172.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 16.0S 171.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 15.9S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 15.4S 171.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 15.2S 171.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 16.7S 174.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.2S 176.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 15.4S 172.6E.
13DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05P (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
368 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SPIRAL BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING
INTO AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE
BANDING FEATURES PRESENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND IN A 130517Z SSMIS 37
GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KTS WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T3.0 (KNES, 45 KTS) AND T2.5 (PGTW AND ABRF, 35 KTS), A CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55
KTS) AND A 130224Z CIMSS SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 51 KTS. TC
05P IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THROUGH A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM
(28-39 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND SUPPORTIVE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DURING THIS TIME, A
REPOSITIONING OF THE STEERING RIDGE WILL TAKE PLACE DUE TO
INTERACTION WITH A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROPAGATING FROM
THE WEST. AS THE STR RETREATS TO THE EAST, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WILL WEAKEN AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TRACK INITIALLY WESTWARD
AFTER TAU 12, MAKE A BRIEF TURN NORTHWARD, THEN TRACK GENERALLY
EASTWARD AFTER TAU 48. BY TAU 72, THE STEERING RIDGE WILL BUILD
SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM AND BEGIN TO DRIVE THE VORTEX SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO
90 KTS BY TAU 72 DUE TO CONTINUED LOW VWS AND WARM SST UNTIL THIS
TIME. THEREAFTER, MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VWS WILL SLOW THE
INTENSIFICATION TREND, RESULTING IN A PEAK INTENSITY OF 95 KTS AT
TAUS 96-120. THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE TROUGH-RIDGE INTERACTION
RESULTS IN A DYNAMIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TAU 72 AND YIELDS
A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE SOUTHEASTWARD
TURN. THIS UNCERTAINTY IS REFLECTED IN THE HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD IN
NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK SOLUTIONS WHICH DEPICT A MAXIMUM 350 NM
ACROSS TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 120. THE GFS, NAVGEM AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS
PROVIDE WESTWARD LYING TRACKS THAT BRING THE VORTEX EAST OF NADI,
FIJI BETWEEN TAUS 96 AND 120. THE GALWEM AND UKMET MODEL SOLUTIONS
PROVIDE TRACKS EAST OF THESE SOLUTIONS WITH THE AFUM (GALWEM) TRACK
BRINGING THE SYSTEM CENTER DIRECTLY OVER FIJI. THIS LARGE SPREAD IN
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE LENDS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO
OFFSET THE EASTWARD BIAS RESULTING FROM THE GALWEM AND UKMET MODEL
TRACKS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//

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