Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for THREE-20
in Australia

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.



2020-12-11 07:18


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 110900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 21.1S 119.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 21.1S 119.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 23.8S 122.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110900Z POSITION NEAR 21.8S 119.9E.
11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 03S MADE LANDFALL AT
11/03Z, APPROXIMATELY 34NM WEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AND HAS SLOWLY
WEAKENED AND TRACKED INLAND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. MAXIMUM SURFACE
WINDS (10-MINUTE AVERAGE) AT PORT HEDLAND WERE 38 KNOTS GUSTING TO
49 KNOTS WITH MINIMUM SLP NEAR 994MB. RADAR IMAGERY NOW DEPICTS
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS
AND INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO
QUICKLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE COMBINED STEERING INFLUENCE OF
A DEEP TROUGH TO THE SOUTHWEST AND A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. TC 03S WILL WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU
12 WELL INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) FINAL WARNING
(WTXS31 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

2020-12-11 01:53


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 19.7S 116.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 24 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7S 116.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 22.4S 120.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.7S 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 20.4S 117.8E.
11DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 221
NM NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 24 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED, STANDING STRONG
IN THE FACE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), THOUGH THE MAIN
CORE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS SOMEWHAT DISPLACED SOUTHEAST FROM
THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE, BASED ON A COMBINATION OF DATA INCLUDING A SOMEWHAT
AMBIGUOUS 102356Z ASCAT-A PASS, SPIRAL BAND ANALYSIS OF THE EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL BANDS IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM PORT
HEDLAND. BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA, AT 110000Z, THE SYSTEM REMAINS
OFFSHORE NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40
KNOTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNTOS) BASED ON AN ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENUS
ESTIMATE OF 42 KNOTS, WITH SUPPORT FROM THE AOREMENTIONED ASCAT-A
PASS, WHICH SHOWED 40 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE SYSTEM LIES IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (30 DEG C) SSTS, LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS AND
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE BASE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH JUST TO
THE WEST. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR LOCATED TO THE NORHEAST. TC
02S IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST, WITH LANDFALL IMMINENT JUST SOUTHWEST OF
PORT HEDLAND. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KNOTS IS POSSIBLE PRIOR
TO LANDFALL, AS THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW CONTINUES TO PROVIDE ROBUST
EXHAUST, AND PRIOR TO VWS DECAPITATING THE SYSTEM OVER LAND. HOWEVER,
ONCE OVER LAND, THE SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO TERRAIN
INTERACTION AND INCREASING VWS, LEADING TO DISSIPATION OF WEST-CENTER
AUSTRALIA BY TAU 24. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD LESS THAN 50NM THROUGH TAU 12. HOWEVER, GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNIFICANT ALONG-TRACK SPREAD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD, LENDING OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-12-10 19:58


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 16.9S 114.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 114.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.3S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.8S 120.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.6S 123.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 17.5S 115.1E.
10DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY (100*PI)
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT HEDLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO FEEL
THE EFFECTS OF SHEAR AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST, WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED INTO AN ELONGATED PLUME
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). IN THE
ABSSENCE OF RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED
WITH ONLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE, BASED PRIMARILY ON SPIRAL BAND
ANALYSIS OF THE OUTER LOW-LEVEL CLOUD BANDS EVIDENT IN THE INFRARED
IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE AND IS AN AVERAGE VALUE OF THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KNOTS), AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
(ADT) ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE
OF 46 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 DEG C)
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LATER STR
LOCATED OVER NORTHERN AUSTRALIA, AND IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR PORT HEDLAND IN APPROXIMATELY 12-15 HOURS. OVER THE NEXT 12
HOURS, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSITY TO 40 KNOTS, AS IT BEGINS
TO INTERACT WITH APPROACHING TROUGH, WHICH WILL PROVIDE FOR A SHORT
PERIOD OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE DIVERGENT FLOW AHEAD OF
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF INCREASING VWS WHICH
WILL SERVE TO DECAPITATE THE SYSTEM. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL
DISSIPATE AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND, FULLY DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AN 50NM SPREAD AT LANDFALL, INCREASING TO 90NM BY TAU 24. WHILE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD IS RELATIVELY LOW, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD HAS BEEN
STEADILY INNCREASING, WITH AS MUCH AS 100NM SPREAD AT TAU 12, AS THE
MODELS VARY IN HOW THEY HANDLE THE DEGREE OF TROUGH INTERACTION. IN
LIGHT OF THE INCREASING ALONG-TRACK SPREAD, THERE IS OVERALL FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES CLOSE TO AND
SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S
(BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-12-10 14:27


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 15.7S 113.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 113.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.3S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 21.0S 119.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.7S 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 16.3S 114.0E.
10DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 399
NM NORTH OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANDING DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AN OBSCURED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 101104Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO
A DEFINED LLCC POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF AN AREA OF
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
IMPROVED ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TC 03S TO INTENSIFY TO 45
KNOTS NEAR TAU 12. AFTER TAU 18, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY
AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
WEST AND A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH AN 85NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 24 LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR 12-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-12-10 08:57


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 14.8S 112.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 112.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 17.5S 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.1S 117.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.9S 121.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 113.0E.
10DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 461
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, WELL-DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. A 100603Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS
SHALLOW BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC WITH DISORGANIZED,
ISOLATED DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 100225Z
ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 30-35 KNOT WINDS,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL INTENSITY ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. THE
LLCC HAS DECOUPLED OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS DUE TO MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). HOWEVER, VWS IS EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA, WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU
24, THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER LAND. TC 03S
IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN ENHANCED FLOW BETWEEN
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE WEST AND A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A
120NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 24 LENDING FAIR CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS
15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR
12-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-12-10 05:23


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 14.0S 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.0S 111.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.8S 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.1S 116.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.9S 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 23.0S 122.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5S 111.8E.
10DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 523
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 092228Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS
THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC, AND EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
SPIRAL BANDS TO THE NORTH WRAPPING INTO A NICELY DEFINED LOW
EMISSIVITY REGION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0
(30 KTS) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T2.6 (37KTS). TC
03S
IS TRACKING ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) THAT
IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY
BY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A
MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH TAU 12 WITH FAVORABLE SST OFFSET BY
CONTINUED MODERATE EASTERLY VWS. BEGINNING AT TAU 12 AND THROUGH TAU
24 THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH,
RESULTING IN INCREASED DIVERGENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH INCREASED SSTS (NEAR 30C) WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM JUST BEFORE
LANDFALL. UPON MAKING LANDFALL, TC 03S WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND
DISSIPATE OVER LAND
BY TAU 48 DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. NUMERICAL
MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A MAXIMUM 160 NM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS AT TAU
48. THIS GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS
17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-12-09 20:44


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 13.3S 110.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3S 110.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.9S 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 17.0S 114.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 19.5S 117.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.0S 120.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 111.3E.
09DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 570
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLAIRING CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A TIMELY 091750Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE, WHICH CLEARLY SHOWED THE
CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC, AND EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL SPIRAL BANDS
TO THE NORTH WRAPPING INTO A NICELY DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE HEDGED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T1.5 (25 KTS) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) OF T2.1 (31KTS).
TC 03S IS TRACKING ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
POSITIONED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THROUGH A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) THAT IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
TC 03S IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A MINIMAL TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH TAU 12
WITH FAVORABLE SST OFFSET BY CONTINUED MODERATE EASTERLY VWS.
BEGINNING AT TAU 24 AND THROUGH TAU 36 THE SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH
AN UPPER-LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH, RESULTING IN INCREASED DIVERGENT
POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE BASE OF THE TROUGH, WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH
INCREASED SSTS (NEAR 30C) WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN THE INTENSITY OF
THE SYSTEM JUST BEFORE LANDFALL. UPON MAKING LANDFALL, TC 03S WILL
RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 48 DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MAXIMUM 150 NM SPREAD
IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS AT TAU 48. THIS GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK
WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z,
101500Z AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-12-09 13:55


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 12.4S 110.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 110.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.9S 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 15.7S 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.2S 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.6S 120.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 26.0S 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 12.8S 111.0E.
09DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
627 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS WEAK CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). TC 03S IS
TRACKING ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
THAT IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
MARGINAL THROUGH TAU 12 WITH FAVORABLE SST OFFSET BY CONTINUED
MODERATE VWS. THEREAFTER, LOW (5-10 KTS) VWS ALONG WITH CONTINUED
UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AND WARM SST WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY TO 40 KTS BY TAU 36. THE SYSTEM WILL MAKE LANDFALL ALONG
THE COAST OF NORTHWEST AUSTRALIA THEREAFTER. CONTINUED FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS BETWEEN TAU 36 AND TAU 48 WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INTENSIFICATION DURING THIS TIME. UPON MAKING LANDFALL, TC 03S WILL
BEGIN DISSIPATING OVER LAND DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING
TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
AND FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
MAXIMUM 140 NM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THIS
GOOD AGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-12-09 09:10


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 11.6S 109.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 109.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 12.8S 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.2S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.1S 115.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 18.7S 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.0S 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 110.2E.
09DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
686 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KTS
IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND IS HEDGED ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BASED ON THE 40-45 KTS
WINDS PRESENT IN DATA FROM A 090152Z ASCAT-B PASS. TC 03S IS
TRACKING ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM AND THROUGH A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM THAT
IS OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST). THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE STEERING
INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN MARGINAL DURING THIS TIME WITH FAVORABLE SST
OFFSET BY CONTINUED MODERATE TO HIGH (15-25 KTS) VWS. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT IS NOT FORECAST TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY, HOWEVER VWS FALLS
BRIEFLY TO 10 KTS BY TAU 48, WHICH MAY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY
BRIEFLY BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF
AUSTRALIA SHORTLY AFTER THAT TIME. UPON MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING
TERRAIN. THIS TERRAIN INTERACTION WILL LEAD TO SUBSEQUENT
DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A MAXIMUM 340
NM SPREAD IN ACROSS TRACK SOLUTIONS AT TAU 72. THIS GOOD AGREEMENT
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS LENDS OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED ALONG THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-12-09 03:05


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 11.1S 109.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1S 109.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 11.9S 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 13.2S 111.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 14.6S 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 16.6S 115.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.9S 119.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 24.7S 123.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 11.3S 109.3E.
09DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
733 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
EASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION FLARING
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC AND BANDING
EVIDENT IN A 082241Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
ASSESSED AT 45 KTS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED A CIMSS ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) ALONG WITH A
082306Z SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 45 KTS. TC 03S IS TRACKING
THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST).
THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING EASTWARD ALONG RIDGING EXTENDING
NORTHWESTWARD FROM A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM. CURRENT INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM MAINTAINING
INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, PERSISTENT VWS AND
DECREASING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS AUSTRALIA. AS THE STR
REORIENTS AROUND TAU 36, TC 03S SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE WITH
LANDFALL EXPECTED JUST PRIOR TO TAU 72. TC 03S WILL BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES OVER LAND DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH VWS AND
INTERACTION WITH THE UNDERLYING TERRAIN. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
FULLY DISSIPATE OVER LAND BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH NAVGEM AS AN OUTLIER TO THE WEST OF
THE MAJORITY OF MODEL SOLUTIONS. AFTER TAU 24, THE GFS SOLUTION
DIVERGES EAST OF THE MAJORITY. AS THESE OUTLIER SOLUTIONS OFFSET
EACH OTHER, THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
090000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND
100300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31
PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-12-08 21:06


Original Message :

WTXS32 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070521ZDEC2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (THREE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 11.0S 108.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 075 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.0S 108.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 11.7S 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.0S 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 14.5S 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 16.6S 115.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 22.0S 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 27.1S 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2S 108.8E.
08DEC20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
750 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION OVERHEAD A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 081840Z
GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH DEFINED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC LENDS GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. A 081446Z ASCAT-
B IMAGE DEPICTS A TIGHT CIRCULATION WITH A SWATH OF 40-45 KT WINDS
WITH A FEW 45-49KT WINDS EMBEDDED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC.
THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AS 45 KTS BASED ON THIS
ASCAT DATA. TC 03S IS TRACKING THROUGH A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY FAIR POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). FURTHERMORE, THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING SOME
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG ITS EQUATORWARD PERIPHERY. TC 03S IS TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG AN EXTENSION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
POSITIONED EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT, TC 03S
HAS LIMITED TIME FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, REACHING A PEAK INTENSITY
OF 50 KTS BY TAU 12. AFTERWARDS, PERSISTENT VWS AND DECREASING UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
TOWARDS AUSTRALIA. AS THE STR REORIENTS AROUND TAU 36, TC 03S SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE ALONG TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL
AROUND TAU 60. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
INLAND WITH FULL DISSIPATION OVER LAND EXPECTED BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER THAT, THE
SOLUTIONS SLOWLY DIVERGE TO A SPREAD OF 294 NM BY TAU 72.
SPECIFICALLY, THE GFS SOLUTION TRACKS FURTHER EASTWARD THAN THE
MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE. BASED ON THIS SPREAD, THERE IS OVERALL
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BONGOYO) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS22 PGTW 080530).//
NNNN

>