Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for GATI-20
in Somalia

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2020-11-23 20:28


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 232100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03A NIO 201123194417
2020112318 03A GATI 009 02 285 11 SATL 030
T000 119N 0475E 030
T012 115N 0459E 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 11.9N 47.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 47.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 11.5N 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 47.1E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z
IS 10 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
0320111906 109N 685E 15
0320111912 109N 675E 15
0320111918 109N 665E 15
0320112000 110N 650E 15
0320112006 112N 637E 20
0320112012 112N 627E 20
0320112018 110N 617E 25
0320112100 110N 605E 30
0320112106 112N 589E 30
0320112112 110N 571E 30
0320112118 108N 555E 40
0320112200 106N 538E 60
0320112200 106N 538E 60
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112212 104N 515E 90
0320112212 104N 515E 90
0320112212 104N 515E 90
0320112218 106N 507E 70
0320112218 106N 507E 70
0320112218 106N 507E 70
0320112300 109N 500E 45
0320112306 113N 493E 40
0320112312 116N 486E 35
0320112318 119N 475E 30
NNNN

>

2020-11-23 20:28


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 11.9N 47.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 47.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 11.5N 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
232100Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 47.1E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231800Z
IS 10 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-11-23 14:19


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 231500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03A NIO 201123134416
2020112312 03A GATI 008 02 295 07 SATL 060
T000 116N 0486E 035 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 115N 0470E 030
T024 112N 0453E 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 11.6N 48.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 48.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.5N 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 11.2N 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 48.2E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
0320111906 109N 685E 15
0320111912 109N 675E 15
0320111918 109N 665E 15
0320112000 110N 650E 15
0320112006 112N 637E 20
0320112012 112N 627E 20
0320112018 110N 617E 25
0320112100 110N 605E 30
0320112106 112N 589E 30
0320112112 110N 571E 30
0320112118 108N 555E 40
0320112200 106N 538E 60
0320112200 106N 538E 60
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112212 104N 515E 90
0320112212 104N 515E 90
0320112212 104N 515E 90
0320112218 106N 507E 70
0320112218 106N 507E 70
0320112218 106N 507E 70
0320112300 109N 500E 45
0320112306 113N 493E 40
0320112312 116N 486E 35
NNNN

>

2020-11-23 14:10


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 11.6N 48.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 48.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.5N 47.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 11.2N 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
231500Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 48.2E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION. A
231023Z AMSR2 89GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW BANDING
WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED, DEFINED LLCC WITH WEAK CONVECTIVE
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
35 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 2.5
(35 KNOTS) AND A SHIP REPORT OF 32 KNOTS, LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 47.6E
ABOUT 85NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOMALIA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE
TO LAND INTERACTION AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z, 240300Z
AND 240900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 04B (FOUR) WARNINGS (WTIO32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-11-23 08:49


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 230900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03A NIO 201123075119
2020112306 03A GATI 007 01 300 08 SATL 030
T000 113N 0493E 040 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 116N 0481E 030
T024 115N 0467E 025
T036 111N 0453E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 11.3N 49.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 49.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 11.6N 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 11.5N 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.1N 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 49.0E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
0320111906 109N 685E 15
0320111912 109N 675E 15
0320111918 109N 665E 15
0320112000 110N 650E 15
0320112006 112N 637E 20
0320112012 112N 627E 20
0320112018 110N 617E 25
0320112100 110N 605E 30
0320112106 112N 589E 30
0320112112 110N 571E 30
0320112118 108N 555E 40
0320112200 106N 538E 60
0320112200 106N 538E 60
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112212 104N 515E 90
0320112212 104N 515E 90
0320112212 104N 515E 90
0320112218 106N 507E 70
0320112218 106N 507E 70
0320112218 106N 507E 70
0320112300 109N 500E 45
0320112306 113N 493E 40
NNNN

>

2020-11-23 08:44


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 230900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 11.3N 49.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 49.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 11.6N 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 11.5N 46.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 11.1N 45.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
230900Z POSITION NEAR 11.4N 49.0E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 268
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND DISPLACED OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. A 230351Z SSMIS 91GHZ COMPOSITE IMAGE INDICATES SHALLOW
BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A WEAKLY DEFINED
LLCC WITH RAGGED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON A SHIP REPORT OF 42.7
KNOTS, LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 47.5E ABOUT 130NM NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN COAST OF SOMALIA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT SUPPORTING THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND WEAK DIFFLUENCE ALOFT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231500Z, 232100Z, 240300Z AND 240900Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-11-23 01:53


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 230300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03A NIO 201123012640
2020112300 03A GATI 006 01 295 07 SATL 060
T000 107N 0500E 045 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 109N 0490E 030
T024 110N 0481E 020
T036 108N 0468E 020
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 10.7N 50.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 50.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.9N 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.0N 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 10.8N 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 49.7E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416
NM EAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 03A HAS BEEN DECAPITATED, WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE WEST, WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME EXPOSED OVER NORTHEASTERN SOMALIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC, SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF THE 222156Z AMSR2 91GHZ COLORPCT MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE LLCC EAST OF THE REMNANT CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE, DUE TO A LACK OF ESTIMATES OVER LAND, AND PRIMARILY
RELIES UPON AN EMPIRICAL DECAY MODEL AFTER LANDFALL AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND AS IT DECAYS FURTHER,
WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS ALONG
THE NORTHERN SOMILIA COASTLINE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
DECAY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN, FULLY DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE JTWC TRACK, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS THE SOLE OUTLIER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
0320111906 109N 685E 15
0320111912 109N 675E 15
0320111918 109N 665E 15
0320112000 110N 650E 15
0320112006 112N 637E 20
0320112012 112N 627E 20
0320112018 110N 617E 25
0320112100 110N 605E 30
0320112106 112N 589E 30
0320112112 110N 571E 30
0320112118 108N 555E 40
0320112200 106N 538E 60
0320112200 106N 538E 60
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112212 104N 515E 90
0320112212 104N 515E 90
0320112212 104N 515E 90
0320112218 104N 506E 70
0320112218 104N 506E 70
0320112218 104N 506E 70
0320112300 107N 500E 45
NNNN

>

2020-11-23 01:52


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 230300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 10.7N 50.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.7N 50.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.9N 49.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 11.0N 48.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 10.8N 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
230300Z POSITION NEAR 10.7N 49.7E.
23NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416
NM EAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 03A HAS BEEN DECAPITATED, WITH
THE UPPER-LEVEL ROTATION MOVING RAPIDLY OFF TO THE WEST, WHILE THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME EXPOSED OVER
NORTHEASTERN SOMALIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC, SUPPORTED BY ANALYSIS OF THE
222156Z AMSR2 91GHZ COLORPCT MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY SHOWS THE
LLCC EAST OF THE REMNANT CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, DUE TO A LACK OF ESTIMATES
OVER LAND, AND PRIMARILY RELIES UPON AN EMPIRICAL DECAY MODEL AFTER
LANDFALL AND THE OVERALL STRUCTURE. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND AS IT
DECAYS FURTHER, WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN SOMILIA COASTLINE. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO DECAY OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN, FULLY
DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE SUPPORTING THE
JTWC TRACK, WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS THE SOLE
OUTLIER TO THE SOUTHWEST. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. NEXT WARNINGS AT
230900Z, 231500Z, 232100Z AND 240300Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-11-22 20:35


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 222100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03A NIO 201122194000
2020112218 03A GATI 005 01 265 09 SATL 060
T000 103N 0506E 070 R064 010 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
T012 103N 0496E 050
T024 104N 0484E 035
T036 105N 0472E 030
T048 102N 0452E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 10.3N 50.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 50.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 10.3N 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 10.4N 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 10.5N 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 10.2N 45.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 50.3E.
22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454
NM EAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS NOW MADE LANDFALL AND MOVED APPROXIMATELY 20NM INLAND BY THE 221800Z HOUR, BUT HAS RETAINED A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF ITS STRENGTH AS THE VORTEX DEGRADES. ANIMIATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
WITH THE CONVECTION WARMING AND BEING SHEARED WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO INCREASED DRAG ON THE LLCC DUE TO TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY OR SCATTEROMETER DATA, AND IS PLACED NEAR THE PGTW FIX LOCATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT A GENEROUS 70 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, AGAIN DUE TO A LACK OF MEASUREMENTS, AND PRIMARILY RELIES UPON AN EMPIRICAL DECAY MODEL OF A 20 KNOT DECAY OVER SIX HOURS AFTER LANDFALL. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND AS IT DECAYS FURTHER, WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN SOMILIA COASTLINE. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DECAY OVER THE RUGGED AND DRY TERRAIN, FULLY DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT OR BEFORE TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT OVERALL. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE SYSTEM INTO THE GULF OF ADEN BY TAU 18, AND THE STAYS OVER WATER THROUGH TAU 48, REINTENIFYING TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM BY TAU 24, WHILE THE GFS INDICATES THE VORTEX TURNING SHARPLY SOUTH AND DISSIPATING ALONG THE EAST COAST BY TAU 36. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME. WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS, THE MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
0320111906 109N 685E 15
0320111912 109N 675E 15
0320111918 109N 665E 15
0320112000 110N 650E 15
0320112006 112N 637E 20
0320112012 112N 627E 20
0320112018 110N 617E 25
0320112100 110N 605E 30
0320112106 112N 589E 30
0320112112 110N 571E 30
0320112118 108N 555E 40
0320112200 106N 538E 60
0320112200 106N 538E 60
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112212 104N 515E 90
0320112212 104N 515E 90
0320112212 104N 515E 90
0320112218 103N 506E 70
0320112218 103N 506E 70
0320112218 103N 506E 70
NNNN

>

2020-11-22 20:35


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 222100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 10.3N 50.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 50.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 10.3N 49.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 10.4N 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 10.5N 47.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 10.2N 45.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
222100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 50.3E.
22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454
NM EAST OF DJIBOUTI (CITY), HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A HAS NOW MADE LANDFALL AND MOVED
APPROXIMATELY 20NM INLAND BY THE 221800Z HOUR, BUT HAS RETAINED A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF ITS STRENGTH AS THE VORTEX DEGRADES.
ANIMIATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
WITH THE CONVECTION WARMING AND BEING SHEARED WEST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) DUE TO INCREASED DRAG ON THE LLCC DUE TO
TERRAIN EFFECTS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS ASSESSED WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LACK OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY OR SCATTEROMETER
DATA, AND IS PLACED NEAR THE PGTW FIX LOCATION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT A GENEROUS 70 KNOTS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE,
AGAIN DUE TO A LACK OF MEASUREMENTS, AND PRIMARILY RELIES UPON AN
EMPIRICAL DECAY MODEL OF A 20 KNOT DECAY OVER SIX HOURS AFTER
LANDFALL. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND AS IT
DECAYS FURTHER, WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE COASTAL
MOUNTAINS ALONG THE NORTHERN SOMILIA COASTLINE. THE SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO RAPIDLY DECAY OVER THE RUGGED AND DRY TERRAIN, FULLY
DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE AT OR BEFORE TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT OVERALL. THE ECMWF TRACKS THE SYSTEM
INTO THE GULF OF ADEN BY TAU 18, AND THE STAYS OVER WATER THROUGH
TAU 48, REINTENIFYING TO A WEAK TROPICAL STORM BY TAU 24, WHILE THE
GFS INDICATES THE VORTEX TURNING SHARPLY SOUTH AND DISSIPATING ALONG
THE EAST COAST BY TAU 36. THESE SOLUTIONS ARE CONSIDERED UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME. WITH THE NOTABLE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF AND THE GFS, THE
MAJORITY OF THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT AND
SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230300Z, 230900Z, 231500Z AND 232100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-11-22 14:21


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 221500
WARNING ATCG MIL 03A NIO 201122132640
2020112212 03A GATI 004 01 275 10 SATL 020
T000 104N 0515E 090 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD
T012 106N 0494E 065
T024 108N 0474E 045 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T036 109N 0457E 035 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T048 107N 0441E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.4N 51.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 51.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.6N 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.8N 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 10.9N 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 10.7N 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 51.0E.
22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
0320111906 109N 685E 15
0320111912 109N 675E 15
0320111918 109N 665E 15
0320112000 110N 650E 15
0320112006 112N 637E 20
0320112012 112N 627E 20
0320112018 110N 617E 25
0320112100 110N 605E 30
0320112106 112N 589E 30
0320112112 110N 571E 30
0320112118 108N 555E 40
0320112200 106N 538E 60
0320112200 106N 538E 60
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112212 104N 515E 90
0320112212 104N 515E 90
0320112212 104N 515E 90
NNNN

>

2020-11-22 14:18


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 10.4N 51.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.4N 51.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.6N 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.8N 47.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 10.9N 45.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 10.7N 44.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 51.0E.
22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03A, WHICH REMAINS CLASSIFIED AS A
MIDGET SYSTEM, PEAKED AT 100 KNOTS AT 22/06Z. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING
WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST OF
NORTHEAST SOMALIA. HOWEVER, EIR STILL DEPICTS A RAGGED 12NM EYE,
WHICH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
ADDITIONALLY, A 221223Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A COMPACT
EYEWALL SURROUNDING A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE WITH SPIRAL
BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLES. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T5.0/5.5 (90/102 KNOTS); 22/1145-1215Z ADT ESTIMATES OF 4.9 (87-88
KNOTS); AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 85 KNOTS. OVERALL, UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TRACK
WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF AVNO AND AEMN, THE BULK OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE. THE 22/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE ALSO INDICATES A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF A WESTWARD TRACK. TC 03A SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL NEAR
TAU 03 OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF NORTHEAST SOMALIA AND IS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND WITH DISSIPATION
FORECASTED BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS
24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z, 230300Z, 230900Z AND 231500Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-11-22 08:41


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 220900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 003//
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 10.3N 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.4N 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 10.5N 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 10.5N 46.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 10.4N 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 52.0E.
22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 466
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-11-22 08:33


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 220900
WARNING ATCG MIL 03A NIO 201122075656
2020112206 03A GATI 003 01 260 14 SATL 015
T000 103N 0525E 100 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 104N 0505E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 105N 0484E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 105N 0464E 045 R034 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 104N 0450E 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (GATI) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 10.3N 52.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.3N 52.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.4N 50.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 10.5N 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 10.5N 46.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 10.4N 45.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220900Z POSITION NEAR 10.3N 52.0E.
22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03A (GATI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 466
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221500Z, 222100Z, 230300Z AND 230900Z.//
0320111906 109N 685E 15
0320111912 109N 675E 15
0320111918 109N 665E 15
0320112000 110N 650E 15
0320112006 112N 637E 20
0320112012 112N 627E 20
0320112018 110N 617E 25
0320112100 110N 605E 30
0320112106 112N 589E 30
0320112112 110N 571E 30
0320112118 108N 556E 40
0320112200 106N 539E 60
0320112200 106N 539E 60
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112206 103N 525E 100
0320112206 103N 525E 100
NNNN

>

2020-11-22 03:32


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 220300 AMD
WARNING ATCG MIL 03A NIO 201122025725
2020112200 03A THREE 002A 01 260 18 SATL 030
T000 105N 0538E 050 R050 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 103N 0517E 060 R050 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 040 NE QD 010 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 105N 0495E 045 R034 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 106N 0480E 035
T048 107N 0459E 025
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002A AMENDED
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 10.5N 53.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 53.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 10.3N 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.5N 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.6N 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 10.7N 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 53.3E.
22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ORGANIZED AND STRENGTHENED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH EIR NOW SHOWING INDICATIONS OF AN EYE DEVELOPING. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN UPDATED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A VERY WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN A 22027Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON A SLIGHT HEDGE UPWARD FROM AN 220300Z PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) BASED PRIMARILY ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED MICROWAVE IMAGE, SUPPORTED BY AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.0 AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH LOW (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS) VWS, WARM (27 DEG C) SSTS AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SAUDI ARABIAN PENINSULA. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS CURRENT WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOVEMENT
THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED STR OVER THE SAUDI PENINSULA. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR RAS HAFUN AROUND TAU 18, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL MEANDER SOMEWHAT, CLOSELY TRACKING THE
TERRAIN FEATURES AND THE LOW-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. IN THE NEAR-TERM, TC 03A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, WITH THE PEAK INTENSITY NOW FORECAST TO REACH 60 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST SOMALIA. WHILE
REMNANTS OF THE CIRCULATION MAY TRACK INTO THE GULF OF ADEN, TC 03A IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND AT OR
BEFORE TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A POOR AGREEMENT, WITH THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE DEPICTING A SHARP TURN SOUTHWARD AND
DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 48, WHILE THE NAVGEM SOLUTION TRACKS
THE SYSTEM SHARPLY NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF ADEN BY TAU 24. THE
REMAINDER OF THE MODEL TRACKERS AND THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND TAU 24 DUE TO THE VERY SHARP DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS POINT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMMENDMENT: SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INITIAL AND FORECAST INTENSITY.//
0320111906 109N 685E 15
0320111912 109N 675E 15
0320111918 109N 665E 15
0320112000 110N 650E 15
0320112006 112N 637E 20
0320112012 112N 627E 20
0320112018 110N 617E 25
0320112100 110N 605E 30
0320112106 112N 589E 30
0320112112 110N 571E 30
0320112118 108N 556E 35
0320112200 105N 538E 50
0320112200 105N 538E 50
NNNN

>

2020-11-22 03:32


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 220300 AMD
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002A AMENDED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002A AMENDED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 10.5N 53.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.5N 53.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 10.3N 51.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.5N 49.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.6N 48.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 10.7N 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 10.5N 53.3E.
22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY ORGANIZED
AND STRENGTHENED IN THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS, WITH EIR NOW SHOWING
INDICATIONS OF AN EYE DEVELOPING. THE INITIAL POSITION HAS BEEN
UPDATED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A VERY WELL DEFINED MICROWAVE
EYE FEATURE IN A 220027Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON A SLIGHT HEDGE
UPWARD FROM AN 220300Z PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T3.0 (45 KNOTS) BASED PRIMARILY ON THE OVERALL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN
THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED MICROWAVE IMAGE, SUPPORTED BY AN ADT
ESTIMATE OF T3.0 AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS. THE
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS OVERALL FAVORABLE WITH LOW (LESS THAN 10 KNOTS)
VWS, WARM (27 DEG C) SSTS AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYER STR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SAUDI ARABIAN PENINSULA. TC 03A IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS CURRENT WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOVEMENT
THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED STR OVER THE SAUDI PENINSULA. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR RAS HAFUN AROUND TAU 18, THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL MEANDER SOMEWHAT, CLOSELY TRACKING THE
TERRAIN FEATURES AND THE LOW-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. IN THE NEAR-
TERM, TC 03A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY, WITH THE PEAK
INTENSITY NOW FORECAST TO REACH 60 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER MAKING
LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER
THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST SOMALIA. WHILE REMNANTS OF THE
CIRCULATION MAY TRACK INTO THE GULF OF ADEN, TC 03A IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND AT OR BEFORE TAU 48.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A POOR AGREEMENT, WITH THE GFS AND THE GFS
ENSEMBLE DEPICTING A SHARP TURN SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATION OVER WATER
BY TAU 48, WHILE THE NAVGEM SOLUTION TRACKS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY
NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF ADEN BY TAU 24. THE REMAINDER OF THE
MODEL TRACKERS AND THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND TAU 24 DUE TO THE VERY SHARP DISAGREEMENT
IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS POINT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z
AND 230300Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR AMMENDMENT: SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN INITIAL AND
FORECAST INTENSITY.//
NNNN

>

2020-11-22 01:56


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 220300
WARNING ATCG MIL 03A NIO 201122011752
2020112200 03A THREE 002 01 260 14 SATL 060
T000 106N 0542E 040 R034 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 106N 0519E 045 R034 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 107N 0499E 035 R034 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 109N 0484E 030
T048 108N 0468E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 10.6N 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 10.6N 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.7N 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.9N 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 10.8N 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 53.6E.
22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 556
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY COMPACT, WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE QUICKLY CONSOLIDATED AFTER ABSORBING MOST OF THE VORTICITY THAT WAS ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST AREA 96A. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO A DEARTH OF MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER DATA, WITH POSITIONING BEING LIMITED TO ANALYSIS OF THE WRAP IN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE PGTW FIX POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) BASED ON AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KNOTS), AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. TC 03A IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, WARM (27-28 DEG C) SSTS AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SAUDI ARABIAN PENINSULA. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS CURRENT WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOVEMENT THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED STR OVER THE SAUDI PENINSULA. AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR RAS HAFUN AROUND TAU 18, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL MEANDER SOMEWHAT, CLOSELY TRACKING THE TERRAIN FEATURES AND THE LOW-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. IN THE NEAR-TERM, TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSITY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 12. AFTER LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST SOMALIA. WHILE REMNANTS OF THE CIRCULATION MAY TRACK INTO THE GULF OF ADEN, TC 03A IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND AT OR BEFORE TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A POOR AGREEMENT, WITH THE GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE DEPICTING A SHARP TURN SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 48, WHILE THE NAVGEM SOLUTION TRACKS THE SYSTEM SHARPLY NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF ADEN BY TAU 24. THE REMAINDER OF THE MODEL TRACKERS AND THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND TAU 24 DUE TO THE VERY SHARP DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS POINT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.//
0320111906 109N 685E 15
0320111912 109N 675E 15
0320111918 109N 665E 15
0320112000 110N 650E 15
0320112006 112N 637E 20
0320112012 112N 627E 20
0320112018 110N 617E 25
0320112100 110N 605E 30
0320112106 112N 589E 30
0320112112 110N 571E 30
0320112118 108N 556E 35
0320112200 106N 542E 40
NNNN

>

2020-11-22 01:56


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 220300
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 10.6N 54.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 54.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 10.6N 51.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 10.7N 49.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 10.9N 48.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 10.8N 46.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
220300Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 53.6E.
22NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 556
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY COMPACT, WELL-ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE ASSESSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO HAVE QUICKLY
CONSOLIDATED AFTER ABSORBING MOST OF THE VORTICITY THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST AREA 96A. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO A DEARTH OF MICROWAVE OR SCATTEROMETER DATA,
WITH POSITIONING BEING LIMITED TO ANALYSIS OF THE WRAP IN THE
CONVECTIVE BANDS AND THE PGTW FIX POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 40 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) BASED ON
AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T2.7 (39 KNOTS), AND
A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 43 KNOTS. TC 03A IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, WARM (27-28 DEG C)
SSTS AND MODERATE EQUATORWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE
SYSTEM IS TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYER STR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SAUDI ARABIAN PENINSULA. TC 03A IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ITS CURRENT WEST-SOUTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOVEMENT
THOUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED STR OVER THE SAUDI PENINSULA. AS THE SYSTEM
WEAKENS AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NEAR RAS HAFUN AROUND TAU 18, THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WILL MEANDER SOMEWHAT, CLOSELY TRACKING THE
TERRAIN FEATURES AND THE LOW-LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW. IN THE NEAR-
TERM, TC 03A IS FORECAST TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INTENSITY TO A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS
BY TAU 12. AFTER LANDFALL NEAR TAU 18, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF NORTHEAST SOMALIA. WHILE
REMNANTS OF THE CIRCULATION MAY TRACK INTO THE GULF OF ADEN, TC 03A
IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND AT OR
BEFORE TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A POOR AGREEMENT, WITH THE
GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE DEPICTING A SHARP TURN SOUTHWARD AND
DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 48, WHILE THE NAVGEM SOLUTION TRACKS
THE SYSTEM SHARPLY NORTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF ADEN BY TAU 24. THE
REMAINDER OF THE MODEL TRACKERS AND THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BEYOND TAU 24 DUE TO THE
VERY SHARP DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL SOLUTIONS AFTER THIS POINT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 220900Z, 221500Z, 222100Z AND 230300Z.
NNNN

>

2020-11-21 20:32


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 212100
WARNING ATCG MIL 03A NIO 201121193032
2020112118 03A THREE 001 01 260 15 SATL 030
T000 108N 0556E 035 R034 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 106N 0532E 040 R034 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 105N 0510E 035 R034 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 107N 0491E 025
T048 109N 0479E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 10.8N 55.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 55.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 10.6N 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.5N 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 10.7N 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 10.9N 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 55.0E.
21NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 634
NM EAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS SYMMETRICAL, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER TOP OF THE OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON TWO ASCAT BULLSEYE PASSES, AT 211612Z AND 211727Z AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION EVIDENT IN TH 211725 AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE 211612Z ASCAT-A BULLSEYE SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES A SWATH OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS ON ARRAYED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH 30-35 KNOTS ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. THE MOST RECENT PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) LENDS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, LUKEWARM (27-28 DEG C) AND MODERATE WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS SOME MINIMAL NEAR-TERM INTENSIFICATION. TC 03A IS TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR OVER THE SOUTHERN ARABIAN PENINSULA. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST SOMALI COAST NEAR RAS HAFUN, BEFORE SHIFTING TO A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AFTER LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSITY SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS, TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS, BEFORE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASED VWS AND COOLER WATERS. AFTGER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS FORECSAT RAPIDLY WEAKEN OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST SOMALIA, DISSIPATING AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE EGRR AND ECMWF DEPICTING A TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN COAST OF SOMALIA WHILE THE NAVGEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS MOVE THE VORTEX SOUTHWARD, PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF SOMALIA AND LOSE THE VORTEX ALTOGETHER BY TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z, 221500Z AND 222100Z.//
0320111906 109N 685E 15
0320111912 109N 675E 15
0320111918 109N 665E 15
0320112000 110N 650E 15
0320112006 112N 637E 20
0320112012 112N 627E 20
0320112018 110N 617E 25
0320112100 110N 605E 30
0320112106 112N 589E 30
0320112112 110N 571E 30
0320112118 108N 556E 35
NNNN

>

2020-11-21 20:27


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210751ZNOV2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 10.8N 55.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.8N 55.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 10.6N 53.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 10.5N 51.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 10.7N 49.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 10.9N 47.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 55.0E.
21NOV20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03A (THREE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 634
NM EAST OF ADEN, YEMEN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS SYMMETRICAL, FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER TOP OF THE
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON TWO ASCAT BULLSEYE PASSES,
AT 211612Z AND 211727Z AND A WELL-DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION
EVIDENT IN TH 211725 AMSU-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE 211612Z ASCAT-
A BULLSEYE SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES A SWATH OF 35-40 KNOT WINDS
ARRAYED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH 30-35 KNOTS
ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AND NORTHEASTERN QUADRANTS. THE MOST
RECENT PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS)
LENDS ADDITIONAL SUPPORT TO THE INITIAL INTENSITY. WITH LOW (5-10
KNOTS) VWS, LUKEWARM (27-28 DEG C) AND MODERATE WESTWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS SOME MINIMAL NEAR-TERM
INTENSIFICATION. TC 03A IS TRACKING JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR OVER THE SOUTHERN ARABIAN
PENINSULA. TC 03A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE
NORTHEAST SOMALI COAST NEAR RAS HAFUN, BEFORE SHIFTING TO A WEST-
NORTHWEST TRACK AFTER LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INTENSITY
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS TO A PEAK OF 40 KNOTS, BEFORE
WEAKENING SLIGHTLY BEFORE LANDFALL DUE TO INCREASED VWS AND COOLER
WATERS. AFTER LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN
OVER THE RUGGED TERRAIN OF THE NORTHEAST SOMALIA, DISSIPATING AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE BY TAU 48. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT WITH THE EGRR AND ECMWF DEPICTING A TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COAST OF SOMALIA WHILE THE NAVGEM AND GFS SOLUTIONS MOVE
THE VORTEX SOUTHWARD, PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST OF SOMALIA AND LOSE
THE VORTEX ALTOGETHER BY TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE
TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220300Z, 220900Z,
221500Z AND 222100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 210800).//
NNNN

>