Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for POLO-20
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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2020-11-19 21:22


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 192200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E (POLO) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E (POLO) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 120.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 120.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 16.9N 122.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 16.8N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
192200Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 121.5W.
19NOV20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E (POLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
963 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 12 FEET.
//
NNNN

>

2020-11-19 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 192032
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
100 PM PST Thu Nov 19 2020

A few convective cells continue to pulse over 100 n mi northeast of
Polo's center, but overall the cyclone has not produced persistent,
organized deep convection since yesterday evening. Therefore, Polo
is being designated as a remnant low. A recent ASCAT pass sampled
the eastern part of Polo's circulation and showed winds around 25
kt, so it is assumed that 30-kt winds are still occurring closer to
the center. Moderate westerly shear, marginally warm waters, and a
dry environment should cause Polo's winds to gradually decrease,
and the circulation is expected to open up into a trough by 36
hours, per the latest global model guidance.

Polo is moving just south of due west (265/10 kt), steered by a
low- to mid-level ridge to its north. This general motion is
expected to continue until the low dissipates, and the NHC track
forecast is down the middle of the tightly packed guidance envelope.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 16.9N 121.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 20/0600Z 16.9N 122.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

2020-11-19 20:33


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 192031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
100 PM PST Thu Nov 19 2020

...OVER COOLER WATER, POLO DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 121.3W
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Polo
was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 121.3 West. Polo
is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected, and the remnant low is forecast to
dissipate by late Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant
low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-11-19 20:33


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 192031
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020
2100 UTC THU NOV 19 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.3W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.3W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 120.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.9N 122.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 121.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2020-11-19 15:05


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 191600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E (POLO) WARNING NR 008 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E (POLO) WARNING NR 008
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 21E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
191200Z --- NEAR 17.1N 119.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 119.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.1N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.0N 123.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 16.7N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
191600Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 120.5W.
19NOV20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21E (POLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
947 NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192200Z, 200400Z, 201000Z AND 201600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-11-19 14:35


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 191433
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Polo Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
700 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020

Occasional bursts of deep convection have been developing to the
east and northeast of Polo's center since yesterday evening, but
none have lasted for more than about an hour or two. ASCAT-C data
received after the scatterometer pass noted in the previous advisory
did not explicitly show tropical-storm-force winds, suggesting that
Polo continues to weaken, and the most recent Dvorak CI numbers from
TAFB and SAB are 2.0. For these reasons, Polo is now assumed to be
a 30-kt tropical depression. Polo has not maintained enough
organized convection to be considered a tropical cyclone for the
last 12 to 15 hours, and if sustained convection does not redevelop
soon, the system will likely be declared a remnant low later this
afternoon. The remnant low is expected to continue weakening due to
westerly shear, only marginally warm waters, and dry air, and it is
expected to dissipate by 48 hours, if not sooner.

Polo is being steered westward (275/10 kt) to the south of a low- to
mid-level ridge. Once Polo becomes a remnant low, the shallow
circulation should take on a south-of-due-west motion in about 24
hours, continuing that trajectory until it dissipates. This
pattern is shown by nearly all the reliable track models, and the
NHC forecast lies down the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 17.1N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 17.1N 121.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 20/1200Z 17.0N 123.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 21/0000Z 16.7N 126.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

2020-11-19 14:34


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 191433
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Polo Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
700 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020

...POLO NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 120.3W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Polo was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 120.3 West. Polo is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Polo is
expected to become a remnant low later today. The remnant low is
then forecast to dissipate by Friday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

2020-11-19 14:34


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 191433
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020
1500 UTC THU NOV 19 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 120.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 120.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.1N 121.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.0N 123.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 16.7N 126.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 120.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2020-11-19 09:11


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 191000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 21E (POLO) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (POLO) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190600Z --- NEAR 17.0N 118.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 118.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.1N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.1N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.0N 125.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.6N 128.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
191000Z POSITION NEAR 17.0N 119.5W.
19NOV20. TROPICAL STORM 21E (POLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 946 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191600Z, 192200Z, 200400Z AND 201000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-11-19 08:49


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 190848
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
100 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020

Polo has been devoid of deep convection near the center for more
than 6 hours. However, a narrow band of convection with cloud tops
to -60 to -70 deg C has recently developed in the northeastern
quadrant 30-40 nmi from the center, in the same location where a
0439Z partial ASCAT-B scatterometer pass indicated a few surface
wind vectors of 34-35 kt. Therefore, Polo is being maintained as a
tropical storm with an intensity of 35 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is now 280/10 kt. A low-/mid-level
ridge situated to the north of Polo should steer the small cyclone
generally westward until it dissipates in a day or two. The new NHC
track forecast is similar to but a tad south of the previous
advisory track, and lies close to the tightly packed consensus
models TVCE, GFEX, and NOAA-HCCA.

Over the next two days, Polo is forecast to move into a less
favorable environment consisting of moderate-to-strong westerly
shear, a drier and more stable air mass, and sea-surface
temperatures less than 26 deg C. As a result, convection should
steadily weaken, causing Polo to gradually spin down and become a
remnant low by this afternoon or tonight, and dissipate by 60 hours,
if not sooner. The official intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory, and closely follows the intensity consensus
models IVCN and HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 17.1N 119.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 17.1N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 20/1800Z 17.0N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0600Z 16.6N 128.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-11-19 08:46


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 190845
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
100 AM PST Thu Nov 19 2020

...POLO WEAKENS WHILE MOVING WESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 119.3W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 119.3 West. Polo is
moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional weakening is anticipated, and Polo is
forecast to become a remnant low pressure system later today, and
dissipate by Friday night or Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-11-19 08:45


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 190843
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020
0900 UTC THU NOV 19 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 30SE 0SW 45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 119.3W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 118.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.1N 120.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.0N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 16.6N 128.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 119.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-19 03:20


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 190400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 21E (POLO) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (POLO) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 16.8N 117.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 117.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 17.2N 119.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 17.3N 122.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.3N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.3N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
190400Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 118.5W.
19NOV20. TROPICAL STORM 21E (POLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 955 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 191000Z, 191600Z, 192200Z AND 200400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-11-19 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 190234
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
700 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020

Satellite imagery shows that the convection associated with Polo
has diminished this evening, with the remaining convection now to
the east of the exposed low-level center. The initial intensity
is held at a possibly generous 35 kt as a blend of subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates. Polo is moving into an
environment of moderate westerly shear, a dryer air mass, and
decreasing sea surface temperatures, and the system should
gradually weaken during the next 48 h. The new intensity forecast
has minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and it calls for
Polo to degenerate to a remnant low by 36 h and dissipate by 60 h.

The initial motion is 285/11. A low-level ridge to the north of
the cyclone should steer the system generally westward until it
dissipates. and the new track forecast is an update of the previous
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 16.9N 118.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 17.2N 119.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 21/0000Z 17.3N 126.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-19 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 190234
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
700 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020

...POLO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM PST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 118.3W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM PST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was
located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 118.3 West. Polo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn
toward the west is expected later tonight or on Thursday, with this
motion continuing through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected to begin later tonight or on
Thursday, and Polo is expected to decay to a remnant low pressure
area on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-19 02:35


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 190233
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020
0300 UTC THU NOV 19 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 118.3W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 118.3W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 117.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 17.2N 119.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.3N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 118.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-11-18 20:52


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 182200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/ TROPICAL STORM 21E (POLO) WARNING NR 005 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (POLO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 16.4N 116.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 116.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 16.8N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 17.0N 120.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 17.1N 123.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 17.1N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
182200Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 117.4W.
18NOV20. TROPICAL STORM 21E (POLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 978 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190400Z, 191000Z, 191600Z AND 192200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-11-18 20:35


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 182033
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
100 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020

While the cloud pattern was fairly well organized this morning, Polo
provided a little surprise when the center popped out of the central
dense overcast. The system has since developed deep convection near
the center, so perhaps this was a temporary fluctuation but reflects
marginal environmental conditions. The initial wind speed is kept
at 40 kt as a blend of the satellite data, and unfortunately
scatterometer data missed again for a more certain estimate. Polo
probably will peak in intensity during the next 12 hours or so
before a combination of higher shear and dry/stable air causes the
storm to weaken and eventually become a remnant low on Friday. No
significant changes were made to the intensity forecast, and there
were no meaningful model outliers from the NHC prediction.

At least the exposed center allowed for a more precise initial
motion estimate, though it ended up about the same as before 285/10.
Model guidance is tightly clustered on the storm turning westward
tomorrow while it remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge.
The small cyclone will likely decay into a trough of low pressure
by the weekend. Only cosmetic changes were made to the last
forecast, which continues to lie near or just south of the model
consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 16.5N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 16.8N 118.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 17.0N 120.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 17.1N 125.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-18 20:33


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 182031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
100 PM PST Wed Nov 18 2020

...TROPICAL STORM POLO CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WELL
SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM PST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 117.2W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM PST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 117.2 West. Polo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). This general
motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west by
Thursday and a westward motion through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, with gradual
weakening anticipated to begin on Thursday. Polo should degenerate
into a remnant low pressure area on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

2020-11-18 20:32


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 182031
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020
2100 UTC WED NOV 18 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 117.2W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 117.2W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 116.7W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 118.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.0N 120.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.1N 123.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.1N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 117.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

2020-11-18 20:30


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 181600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 21E (POLO) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21E (POLO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 16.1N 115.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 115.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 16.5N 117.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 16.7N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 16.9N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 17.0N 123.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 17.0N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
181600Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 116.1W.
18NOV20. TROPICAL STORM 21E (POLO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182200Z, 190400Z, 191000Z AND 191600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-11-18 14:42


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 181440
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Polo Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
700 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020

Satellite images indicate that the depression has strengthened into
a tropical storm. The small central dense overcast has grown
during the past several hours and a few banding features have
formed. Dvorak estimates range from 30 to 45 kt, and the initial
wind speed is set to 40 kt, which matches the latest CIMSS
satellite consensus estimate. Polo could strengthen a little more
today, but an increase in shear and dry-air entrainment should
start the weakening process on Thursday, with the system expected
to become a non-convective remnant low on Friday. The new NHC
forecast is a little below the model consensus, close to the
previous NHC forecast, leaning toward the idea that the small
tropical cyclone will probably weaken faster than the bulk of the
guidance anticipates.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward at 10 kt.
There has been no change to the forecast philosophy, with Polo
forecast to remain on the southern side of a mid-level ridge
throughout the period. The storm should turn more westward on
Thursday as the system weakens and becomes more shallow. The new
forecast is south of the latest model consensus, nudged slightly
north of the previous NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 16.3N 116.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 16.5N 117.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 16.7N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 16.9N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 17.0N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 21/0000Z 17.0N 126.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

2020-11-18 14:39


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 181438
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Polo Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
700 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020

...TROPICAL STORM POLO FORMS WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM PST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.3N 116.0W
ABOUT 605 MI...970 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM PST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Polo was
located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 116.0 West. Polo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn
toward the west by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, with gradual weakening
anticipated to begin on Thursday. Polo should degenerate into a
remnant low pressure area on Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 100 PM PST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

2020-11-18 14:39


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 181437
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM POLO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020
1500 UTC WED NOV 18 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 116.0W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 116.0W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 115.4W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 117.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.7N 119.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.9N 121.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.0N 123.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 17.0N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 116.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

2020-11-18 08:37


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 180836
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
100 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020

The curved band feature that was prominent in earlier satellite
images has dissipated, likely due to very dry air surrounding the
cyclone. The depression now consists of a small central dense
overcast (CDO) that has just recently become established in the past
few hours. Earlier ASCAT data indicated that the strongest winds
were occurring to the west of the center of the depression, near the
curved band that existed at that time, while winds of 20-25 kt were
occurring around the center. The nearest sampling by a scatterometer
tonight was by the ASCAT-A, which did pass over some of the same
area that had the strongest winds earlier, with peak winds now only
20 kt. Assuming the reorganizing of the convection near the center
has helped to increased the winds somewhat there, the initial
intensity is being held at 30 kt.

If the current CDO feature persists this morning, then the
depression will likely strengthen to a tropical storm later today.
By early Thursday, moderate west-southwesterly shear, cooler
oceanic temperatures, and the presence of a very dry and stable air
mass should cause the cyclone to begin weakening, and by Thursday
night the system is expected to degenerate to a remnant low. The
latest NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one and
is in agreement with the various multimodel consensus aids.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward at 10 kt. The
depression is moving to the south of a mid-level ridge, and the
cyclone is expected to continue in this general motion through
tonight. A turn to the west within the low-level easterly trade
wind flow is expected on Thursday as the system loses its deep
convection and becomes shallow. The track forecast was nudged a
little to the left of the previous advisory track due to a shift in
the model guidance in that direction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 15.7N 115.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 16.1N 116.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 16.5N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 16.7N 120.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 16.8N 123.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-11-18 08:36


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 180835
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
100 AM PST Wed Nov 18 2020

...DEPRESSION COULD BRIEFLY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
BEFORE WEAKENING ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM PST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 115.2W
ABOUT 605 MI...975 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM PST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 115.2
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
(19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today,
followed by a turn toward the west by Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could
become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Weakening is
expected to begin by Thursday, and the system is forecast to become
a remnant low in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 700 AM PST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-11-18 08:36


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 180835
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020
0900 UTC WED NOV 18 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.2W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.1N 116.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.5N 118.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.7N 120.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.8N 123.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 16.8N 125.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 115.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-11-18 02:38


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 180236
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
800 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020

Conventional satellite imagery and an earlier AMSR2 microwave pass
showed curved bands developing over the western portion of the
cyclone, although deep convection remains rather limited near the
depression's surface center. Subjective satellite intensity
estimate T-numbers haven't changed during the past 6 hours and the
initial intensity is held at 30 kt for this advisory.

The HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity aids along with the LGEM
model indicate that the depression will strengthen to a low-end
tropical storm during the next 12-24 hrs and the NHC forecast
continues to show this trend. Afterward, modest west-southwesterly
shear, cooler oceanic temperatures, and the presence of a very dry
and stable air mass should cause the cyclone to weaken and
degenerate to a remnant low in 2 days. The deterministic guidance
agrees that the depression will open up into a trough of low
pressure in 4 days, or less. This is also reflected in the
official intensity forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 285/10
kt in the mid-tropospheric steering current provided by high
pressure anchored to the north of the cyclone. The depression is
expected to continue in this general motion through Thursday.
Through the remaining forecast period, the depression is forecast
to turn westward in the low-level easterly flow as a shallow, or
vertically limited cyclone. The track forecast is basically an
update of the previous one and is close to the HCCA and TVCE
consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 15.5N 114.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 15.9N 115.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 16.9N 120.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

2020-11-18 02:37


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 180236
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
800 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN
TROPICAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM MST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.5N 114.3W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM MST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 114.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
(19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during
the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could
become a tropical storm later tonight or Wednesday. Weakening is
expected to commence by Thursday morning, and the system is
forecast to become a remnant low in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM MST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts


>

2020-11-18 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 180235
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020
0300 UTC WED NOV 18 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.3W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.3W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 113.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.9N 115.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 16.5N 118.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.9N 120.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.3N 122.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.3N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 114.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

2020-11-17 21:13


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 172111 CCA
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 1...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020

Corrected Daylight Time to Standard time

Visible satellite imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the
circulation of the area of low pressure located well south-southwest
of Baja California has become better defined today. The associated
convective activity has also become organized in a band around the
western and southwestern portions of the circulation. Therefore,
the system is being classified as a tropical depression with winds
of 30 kt, as indicated by the scatterometer data and a T2.0 (30 kt)
Dvorak classification from TAFB.

The depression is currently located over SSTs of around 28 deg C,
and within a low shear environment. These conditions are conducive
for strengthening, but the surrounding mid-level environment is
fairly dry which is likely to limit intensification. Most of the
intensity guidance calls for the system to become a short-lived
tropical storm, and so does the official forecast. After 24 hours,
increasing upper-level westerly winds, cooler SSTs, and even less
favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to
weaken. The system is likely to become a remnant low in about 48
hours, and the global models show it degenerating into a trough of
low pressure in 60-72 hours, which is also indicated in the NHC
forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 285/11 kt. A mid-level ridge that
extends westward from northern Mexico over the eastern Pacific
should steer the system west-northwestward for the next couple of
days. After that time, the cyclone is likely to turn more westward
as it weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The
track guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near
the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 15.2N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 15.6N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 16.2N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 16.7N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 20/0600Z 17.2N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-11-17 21:11


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 172109 CCA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 1...Corretced
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
200 PM MST Tue Nov 17 2020

Corrected Daylight Time to Standard Time

...LATE-SEASON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM MST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 113.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM MST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 113.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
(19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could
become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. Weakening is
expected to begin Wednesday night, and the system is forecast to
become a remnant low within two to three days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-11-17 21:07


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 172042
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
300 PM MDT Tue Nov 17 2020

Visible satellite imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the
circulation of the area of low pressure located well south-southwest
of Baja California has become better defined today. The associated
convective activity has also become organized in a band around the
western and southwestern portions of the circulation. Therefore,
the system is being classified as a tropical depression with winds
of 30 kt, as indicated by the scatterometer data and a T2.0 (30 kt)
Dvorak classification from TAFB.

The depression is currently located over SSTs of around 28 deg C,
and within a low shear environment. These conditions are conducive
for strengthening, but the surrounding mid-level environment is
fairly dry which is likely to limit intensification. Most of the
intensity guidance calls for the system to become a short-lived
tropical storm, and so does the official forecast. After 24 hours,
increasing upper-level westerly winds, cooler SSTs, and even less
favorable thermodynamic conditions should cause the cyclone to
weaken. The system is likely to become a remnant low in about 48
hours, and the global models show it degenerating into a trough of
low pressure in 60-72 hours, which is also indicated in the NHC
forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 285/11 kt. A mid-level ridge that
extends westward from northern Mexico over the eastern Pacific
should steer the system west-northwestward for the next couple of
days. After that time, the cyclone is likely to turn more westward
as it weakens and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The
track guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC forecast is near
the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 15.2N 113.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 15.6N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 16.2N 117.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 16.7N 119.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 20/0600Z 17.2N 123.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-11-17 21:07


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 172042
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-One-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP212020
300 PM MDT Tue Nov 17 2020

...LATE-SEASON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 113.3W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-One-E was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 113.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph
(19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during
the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible, and the depression could
become a tropical storm tonight or Wednesday. Weakening is
expected to begin Wednesday night, and the system is forecast to
become a remnant low within two to three days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-11-17 21:07


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 172042
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-ONE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP212020
2100 UTC TUE NOV 17 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 113.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 113.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 112.8W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.6N 114.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.2N 117.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.7N 119.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.1N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 17.2N 123.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>