Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for THETA-20
in , Portugal

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2020-11-15 14:34


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 151432
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 PM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020

Theta has run out of theta-e. The cyclone has been without
significant deep convection for many hours now and has been
gradually spinning down today. It no longer meets the qualifications
of a tropical cyclone, so this is the last advisory. The initial
wind speed is set to 25 kt per the latest scatterometer pass.

The low is meandering this morning. It is expected to be picked up
to the north-northeast by the next trough over the northeastern
Atlantic, along with an increase in forward speed. The remnants of
Theta should gradually lose strength due to strong shear, very dry
air and little instability before dissipating in a day or two.

Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR
and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 31.5N 18.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 16/0000Z 31.9N 18.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 17/0000Z 36.5N 16.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-15 14:33


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 151430
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 PM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020

...THETA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 18.2W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Theta
was located near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 18.2 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 km/h)
and a faster north or north-northeast motion is forecast for a day
or two until the low dissipates.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The low should gradually decay and dissipate by Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-sea/high-
seas-forecast/.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-15 14:33


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 151430
TCMAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
1500 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 18.2W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 18.2W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 18.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.9N 18.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.5N 16.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.5N 18.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER
WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-11-15 08:39


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 150837
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Theta Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020

Theta is barely a tropical cyclone. The only remnants of deep
convection are a small area of warming cloud tops, located around
90 n mi to the southeast of Theta's exposed center. The cyclone has
produced little central convection all day, so it is assumed that at
least slight weakening has occurred and the intensity is set at
30 kt. This also agrees with a blend of the latest Dvorak Final-T
and CI numbers from TAFB. If Theta does not redevelop substantial
inner-core convection soon, it will likely become a remnant low
later today.

The cyclone has slowed down and is moving eastward with an initial
motion of 090/4 kt. A continued slow eastward track is expected
today, before a ridge centered over northwestern Africa begins to
steer the cyclone northward on Monday. Although Theta could continue
to produce intermittent bursts of convection, no significant
redevelopment is anticipated due to surrounding dry air and cool
underlying SSTs. The cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low
within 12 h and dissipate in 60 h. No major changes were made to the
NHC track or intensity forecasts, both of which are based on the
multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 31.8N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 31.9N 17.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 16/0600Z 33.1N 17.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1800Z 35.5N 16.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0600Z 39.0N 14.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-11-15 08:38


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 150835
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Theta Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020

...THETA EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 18.3W
ABOUT 650 MI...1050 KM SE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Theta
was located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 18.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 3 mph (6 km/h). A
continued slow eastward motion is expected today, followed by a
turn toward the north-northeast with an increase in forward
speed on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Theta is forecast to become a
remnant low later today and could dissipate in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-11-15 08:37


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 150835
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
0900 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 18.3W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 18.3W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.9N 17.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.1N 17.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.5N 16.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 39.0N 14.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 18.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-11-15 02:39


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 150236
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020

Theta remains a highly sheared but resilient tropical cyclone with
little change in its satellite appearance since the previous
advisory. A persistent band of deep convection to the southeast of
Theta remains within about 60 n mi of the storm center, despite a
hostile environment characterized by dry mid-level air and 40-50 kt
of northerly shear. Unfortunately, several scatterometer passes this
evening missed the core of the cyclone. Since the satellite
presentation is generally unchanged from earlier today, the initial
intensity is held at 35 kt, which is consistent with a T2.5 Dvorak
classification received from TAFB.

Strong northerly shear and continued dry air entrainment will
eventually take a toll on Theta, but recent satellite trends and the
latest GFS simulated satellite imagery suggest that the cyclone
could remain tropical a little longer than previously forecast. The
latest NHC intensity forecast keeps Theta as a 35-kt tropical storm
at 12 h before weakening it into a remnant low by 24 h. This follows
the consensus of the latest intensity guidance. Thereafter,
continued weakening is expected through its dissipation early next
week.

Theta is still moving eastward at around 4 kt. The cyclone should
begin turning northeastward later today, and then accelerate
north-northeastward on Monday as the shallow remnant low is steered
by a low-level ridge centered over northwestern Africa. The remains
of Theta are forecast to open up into a trough and dissipate by 60 h
ahead of an approaching cold front over the northeastern Atlantic.
The latest NHC track forecast is adjusted slightly to the left of
the previous one, which generally follows the latest track consensus
aids. On the forecast track, the remnant low of Theta is expected to
pass near the island of Madeira late Sunday night or early Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 31.7N 18.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 31.9N 18.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 32.6N 17.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/1200Z 34.2N 17.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 17/0000Z 36.7N 15.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

>

2020-11-15 02:36


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 150234
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 AM GMT Sun Nov 15 2020

...THETA IS STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 18.7W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM SE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 18.7 West. Theta is
moving toward the east near 5 mph (7 km/h). A gradual turn to the
northeast is expected on Sunday, and Theta is forecast to accelerate
northward or north-northeastward on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Theta is forecast to become a remnant low by Sunday night and
dissipate early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

>

2020-11-15 02:35


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 150233
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
0300 UTC SUN NOV 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.7W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 210SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.7W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 18.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.9N 18.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.6N 17.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 34.2N 17.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.7N 15.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 18.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI

>

2020-11-14 20:40


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 142038
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020

A persistent band of deep convection to the southeast of Theta's
center continues to keep it classifiable as a tropical cyclone, with
the edge of the convection at one point today reaching within 60 n
mi of the center of the cyclone. Over the past couple of hours this
convection has become farther displaced from Theta's center, as the
system gets blasted by over 40 kt of northerly shear. Since the
cyclone's appearance has changed little today, the initial
intensity is being held at 35 kt based off data from an ASCAT-A
overpass this morning. Very strong shear and dry air entrainment
should cause the deep convection to weaken and become even farther
displaced from the center tonight, with Theta anticipated to
degenerate into a remnant low by 12 h. The cyclone should also
weaken under this regime, and open into a trough by 72 h. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous one, and is in
good agreement with the intensity guidance.

Theta continues moving just south of due east, but now at a slower
pace of around 5 kt. A mid-level ridge located to the south of Theta
is weakening, which will result in a continued slow
east-southeastward motion through tonight. As Theta becomes a
shallow system on Sunday, the low-level flow is forecast to become
southwesterly, and this flow is expected to increase on Monday ahead
of an approaching cold front. This will cause Theta to turn to the
northeast by late Sunday and accelerate until it dissipates in a few
days. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one
and lies near the track consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 31.7N 19.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 31.7N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/1800Z 32.1N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0600Z 33.2N 17.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1800Z 35.1N 16.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0600Z 38.1N 14.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-14 20:37


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 142035
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020

...THETA HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE BUT SHOULD BECOME A
REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 19.2W
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM SE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 95 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 19.2 West. Theta is
moving toward the east near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion
with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through at
least tonight. A turn to the northeast is forecast to occur by late
Sunday, and Theta is expected to accelerate to the northeast on
Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected over the next few days, and Theta is forecast
to become a remnant low by Sunday morning, and dissipate early next
week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-14 20:36


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 142034
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
2100 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 19.2W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 95 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 240SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 19.2W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 19.5W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.7N 18.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.1N 17.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.2N 17.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 35.1N 16.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 38.1N 14.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 19.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-11-14 14:59


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 141457
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020

Theta's center continues to be devoid of deep convection as dry air
entrains into the system's circulation. The edge of the only nearby
surviving convection is located about 60 n mi to the southeast of
the cyclone's center due to increasing northwesterly shear. A recent
ASCAT overpass showed a fair amount of wind vectors of 30-34 kt,
therefore the initial intensity remains 35 kt for this advisory. The
shear is expected to increase even more today, and the surrounding
environment is forecast to dry out further. These factors, that
should persist for at least the next few days, should prevent any
new convection from developing near the center of Theta. The latest
NHC forecast calls for the system to become a remnant low in 12 h
and dissipate in 72 h, as the circulation gradually spins down.

The storm is now moving just south of due east around 7 kt as it is
steered along the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge. This
ridge is forecast to weaken over the next couple of days, which will
cause Theta to slow its forward motion. Early next week, increasing
southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front should pick up
the remnants of Theta and accelerate them northward, and then
northeastward. The latest NHC track forecast is similar to the
previous one and lies near the track consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 31.8N 20.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 31.6N 19.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/1200Z 31.7N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0000Z 32.4N 17.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 17/0000Z 36.1N 16.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-14 14:59


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 141456
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 PM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020

...THETA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 20.2W
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 20.2 West. Theta is
moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through
Sunday. A sharp northward turn is forecast to occur Sunday night,
with that motion continuing into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected over the next few days, and Theta is forecast
to become a remnant low by tonight, and dissipate early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-14 14:59


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 141456
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
1500 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 20.2W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 300SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 20.2W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 20.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.6N 19.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.7N 18.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.4N 17.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 36.1N 16.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 20.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-11-14 08:38


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 140836
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 AM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020

Nearly all of the deep convection associated with Theta has
dissipated since the previous advisory, with only cold, high cirrus
clouds remaining in the northeastern quadrant. A late-arriving
13/2255Z partial ASCAT-C pass indicated a few 35-kt wind vectors
were present in the southeastern quadrant, so the initial intensity
has been lowered to 35 kt for this advisory, which is consistent
the latest TAFB current intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is due east, or 090/08 kt. Theta is
expected to move eastward along the northern periphery of a
deep-layer ridge for the next 24 hours or so, a motion that will
also be accompanied by a gradual decrease in forward speed. By 36
hours, a much weaker and more vertically shallow Theta is forecast
to turn sharply northward ahead of a frontal system. In the 48-72
hour period, the weakening cyclone expected to accelerate
northeastward ahead of the front, passing to the north of the
Canary Islands this weekend. Theta is forecast to dissipate by 96
hours near the Madeira Island. The new NHC track forecast is similar
to the previous advisory, and lies close to the consensus model
TVCN.

Strong shear in excess of 35 kt currently affecting Theta is
forecast to steadily increase to more than 40 kt by 12 h and beyond.
In addition, entrainment of very dry mid-level air should combine
with the increasing shear and prevent the reformation of persistent
organized deep convection near the center. Although the global
models show that some marginal instability is expected to linger
through the forecast period, only intermittent small bursts of
modest convection away from the center could develop. However, the
general trend in the model guidance calls for Theta to slowly spin
down, and the official intensity forecast follows that scenario,
calling for the cyclone to weaken to a remnant low later today, then
becoming extratropical before dissipating in 3-4 days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 32.0N 20.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 31.8N 19.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/0600Z 31.8N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 15/1800Z 32.2N 17.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 16/0600Z 33.2N 17.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 16/1800Z 34.9N 16.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 17/0600Z 37.2N 15.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-14 08:38


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 140836
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 AM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020

...THETA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 20.8W
ABOUT 540 MI...875 KM SE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 20.8 West. Theta is
moving toward the east near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general
motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through
Sunday. A sharp northward turn is forecast to occur Sunday night,
with that motion continuing into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Theta is
expected to become a remnant low by later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km),
mainly southeast through southwest of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-14 08:38


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 140835
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
0900 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 20.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 330SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 20.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 21.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.8N 19.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.8N 18.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 32.2N 17.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 33.2N 17.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.9N 16.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 37.2N 15.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 20.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-14 04:03


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 140401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.11.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 107.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.11.2020 13.7N 107.4W WEAK
12UTC 14.11.2020 13.8N 107.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.11.2020 13.8N 107.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.11.2020 14.1N 107.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.11.2020 15.0N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.11.2020 16.0N 110.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.11.2020 16.9N 112.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2020 18.2N 114.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.11.2020 19.5N 115.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2020 21.3N 117.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.11.2020 22.9N 118.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM IOTA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 74.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL312020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.11.2020 12.2N 74.9W WEAK
12UTC 14.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM THETA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 22.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.11.2020 32.0N 22.3W MODERATE
12UTC 14.11.2020 31.4N 20.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.11.2020 31.2N 18.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.11.2020 31.6N 17.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.11.2020 32.8N 16.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.11.2020 33.9N 16.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2020 36.4N 15.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 12.7N 77.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.11.2020 13.2N 78.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.11.2020 13.3N 80.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.11.2020 13.1N 81.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.11.2020 13.4N 83.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.11.2020 14.2N 84.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.11.2020 14.6N 85.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.11.2020 14.5N 86.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.11.2020 13.9N 88.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 10.7N 119.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.11.2020 10.7N 119.8W WEAK
00UTC 16.11.2020 10.9N 119.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.11.2020 10.9N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2020 11.5N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2020 12.2N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2020 13.0N 116.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2020 14.0N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.11.2020 14.3N 116.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2020 13.7N 116.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140401

>

2020-11-14 02:40


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 140238
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 AM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020

Theta is beginning to show signs of weakening tonight. Infrared
cloud top temperatures have warmed during the past several hours
within the weakening convective band that curves around the
northeastern semicircle of the storm. A partial 22 UTC ASCAT-B
overpass indicates that Theta maintains a fairly symmetric low-level
wind field, with 35-40 kt winds in the eastern semicircle of the
storm. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 45 kt with
this advisory, which is consistent with UW-CIMSS objective current
intensity estimates but slightly higher than the T2.5 subjective
Dvorak classification from TAFB.

Theta will encounter increasingly hostile environmental conditions
over the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast calls for
steady weakening through the weekend, as strong northerly wind shear
and cool sea surface temperatures will likely inhibit the storm from
sustaining convection near its center. This forecast closely follows
the corrected consensus aid HCCA. Theta is expected to weaken to a
tropical depression within 36 h and degenerate into a remnant low by
48 h, although the GFS simulated satellite imagery suggests this
could occur even sooner than forecast. The remnant low should
dissipate by the middle of next week.

Theta is still moving eastward at around 9 kt around the northern
periphery of a mid-level ridge that extends from western Africa
across the eastern tropical Atlantic. An eastward or
east-southeastward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed
is expected during the next 24-36 h. As the storm spins down and
becomes a more shallow circulation, the remains of Theta will turn
northward and then accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude
cyclone and associated frontal system that will cross the
northeastern Atlantic. The NHC track forecast lies close to the
previous one and near the center of the guidance envelope. On the
forecast track, the center of Theta is expected to pass northwest of
the Canary Islands this weekend, then move near Madeira Island early
Monday as a weak remnant low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 31.9N 21.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 31.8N 20.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 31.6N 18.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 31.7N 17.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 32.3N 17.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z 35.9N 16.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

>

2020-11-14 02:37


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 140235
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 AM GMT Sat Nov 14 2020

...THETA BEGINS WEAKENING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 21.6W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM SE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 21.6 West. Theta is
moving toward the east near 10 mph (17 km/h). An eastward or
east-southeastward motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed
is expected through Sunday, followed by a sharp northward turn
Sunday night into early next week.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Theta is
expected to become a remnant low by late Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi

>

2020-11-14 02:36


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 140234
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
0300 UTC SAT NOV 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 21.6W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 120SE 120SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE 420SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 21.6W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 22.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.8N 20.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.6N 18.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.7N 17.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 32.3N 17.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 33.7N 17.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 35.9N 16.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 21.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER REINHART/CANGIALOSI

>

2020-11-13 20:40


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 132038
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020

Theta appears to be holding its own still, with a large curved band
feature characterizing the bulk of the deep convection, and a
smaller area of convection intermittently developing over the
center. Like yesterday, there has been a lack of observational data
over the system's core since last night. However, since Theta's
organization has not appeared to change much since that time, the
initial intensity is being kept at a somewhat uncertain 50 kt.

Theta is forecast to change little in intensity into tonight as the
cyclone continues moving in a relatively low shear zone associated
with a mid- to upper-level trough axis. By tomorrow, strong
northerly shear is forecast to begin impacting the system while
stable air gets entrained into its circulation. As a result, Theta
is expected to spin down over the weekend, degenerate to a remnant
low on Sunday, and dissipate by the middle of next week.

Theta is moving eastward at around 9 kt, steered by a mid-level
ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern tropical
Atlantic. A turn to the east-southeast along with a gradual slowing
of the forward motion is expected overnight and continuing through
the weekend as the ridge weakens, and mid- to upper level northerly
winds impart on the cyclone. Early next week, what remains of Theta
are expected to turn northward and then accelerate northeastward as
a mid-latitude cyclone passes to the north of the region. The NHC
forecast is little changed from the previous one and lies near the
various consensus aids. On the forecast track, the center of Theta
is forecast to track very near the westernmost Canary Islands.
However, the system is forecast to weaken to a remnant low before
reaching those islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 31.9N 22.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 31.7N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 31.4N 19.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 31.3N 18.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 31.7N 17.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/0600Z 32.5N 17.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1800Z 34.4N 17.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z 39.2N 12.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-13 20:40


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 132038
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020

...THETA EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SATURDAY AND BECOME A
REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 22.6W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM SSE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 22.6 West. A turn toward
the east-southeast along with a slowing of forward speed is expected
tonight. A continued slow east-southeastward motion is then
expected through the weekend followed a turn sharply toward the
north by early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast tonight. Weakening is expected
through the weekend, and Theta should become a remnant low on
Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-13 20:40


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 132037
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
2100 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 22.6W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 130SE 140SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 480SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 22.6W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 23.1W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.7N 21.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.4N 19.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.3N 18.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.7N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.5N 17.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 34.4N 17.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 39.2N 12.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 22.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-11-13 16:07


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 131605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 13.11.2020

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 33.3N 74.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.11.2020 0 33.3N 74.9W 1009 34
0000UTC 14.11.2020 12 36.9N 69.7W 1004 39
1200UTC 14.11.2020 24 39.9N 60.7W 997 45
0000UTC 15.11.2020 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 74.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.11.2020 0 13.9N 74.3W 1009 24
0000UTC 14.11.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM THETA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.2N 24.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.11.2020 0 32.2N 24.6W 992 41
0000UTC 14.11.2020 12 31.6N 22.7W 991 43
1200UTC 14.11.2020 24 31.0N 20.6W 990 49
0000UTC 15.11.2020 36 30.8N 18.8W 997 45
1200UTC 15.11.2020 48 30.9N 18.0W 1005 38
0000UTC 16.11.2020 60 31.7N 18.0W 1010 29
1200UTC 16.11.2020 72 33.5N 18.2W 1015 29
0000UTC 17.11.2020 84 36.4N 17.2W 1016 26
1200UTC 17.11.2020 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.7N 106.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.11.2020 36 14.0N 106.9W 1006 28
1200UTC 15.11.2020 48 14.2N 107.4W 1005 31
0000UTC 16.11.2020 60 14.6N 108.5W 1001 37
1200UTC 16.11.2020 72 15.3N 110.2W 997 43
0000UTC 17.11.2020 84 15.8N 112.0W 997 38
1200UTC 17.11.2020 96 16.4N 113.6W 1000 36
0000UTC 18.11.2020 108 16.9N 115.3W 1001 34
1200UTC 18.11.2020 120 17.5N 117.2W 1002 33
0000UTC 19.11.2020 132 18.1N 119.3W 1003 35
1200UTC 19.11.2020 144 18.7N 120.8W 1006 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.2N 77.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.11.2020 36 12.7N 77.6W 1004 31
1200UTC 15.11.2020 48 13.2N 78.8W 1001 38
0000UTC 16.11.2020 60 13.3N 80.9W 996 39
1200UTC 16.11.2020 72 13.6N 82.3W 990 50
0000UTC 17.11.2020 84 14.5N 83.4W 987 50
1200UTC 17.11.2020 96 15.3N 84.8W 994 40
0000UTC 18.11.2020 108 16.2N 86.3W 995 44
1200UTC 18.11.2020 120 16.1N 87.0W 995 41
0000UTC 19.11.2020 132 15.9N 86.9W 1003 35
1200UTC 19.11.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.8N 120.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.11.2020 48 10.8N 120.3W 1009 23
0000UTC 16.11.2020 60 11.0N 120.0W 1008 22
1200UTC 16.11.2020 72 11.1N 119.3W 1008 22
0000UTC 17.11.2020 84 11.4N 118.9W 1007 24
1200UTC 17.11.2020 96 12.1N 118.6W 1008 26
0000UTC 18.11.2020 108 12.8N 118.6W 1007 31
1200UTC 18.11.2020 120 13.3N 118.4W 1008 33
0000UTC 19.11.2020 132 14.2N 118.1W 1007 35
1200UTC 19.11.2020 144 14.7N 117.7W 1010 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131605

>

2020-11-13 16:07


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 131605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.11.2020

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 33.3N 74.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.11.2020 33.3N 74.9W WEAK
00UTC 14.11.2020 36.9N 69.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.11.2020 39.9N 60.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 74.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.11.2020 13.9N 74.3W WEAK
00UTC 14.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM THETA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.2N 24.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.11.2020 32.2N 24.6W MODERATE
00UTC 14.11.2020 31.6N 22.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.11.2020 31.0N 20.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.11.2020 30.8N 18.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.11.2020 30.9N 18.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.11.2020 31.7N 18.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.11.2020 33.5N 18.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.11.2020 36.4N 17.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.7N 106.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.11.2020 14.0N 106.9W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.11.2020 14.2N 107.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.11.2020 14.6N 108.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.11.2020 15.3N 110.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2020 15.8N 112.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2020 16.4N 113.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2020 16.9N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2020 17.5N 117.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.11.2020 18.1N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2020 18.7N 120.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.2N 77.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.11.2020 12.7N 77.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.11.2020 13.2N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.11.2020 13.3N 80.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.11.2020 13.6N 82.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.11.2020 14.5N 83.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2020 15.3N 84.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.11.2020 16.2N 86.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2020 16.1N 87.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.11.2020 15.9N 86.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 10.8N 120.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.11.2020 10.8N 120.3W WEAK
00UTC 16.11.2020 11.0N 120.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.11.2020 11.1N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2020 11.4N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2020 12.1N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2020 12.8N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.11.2020 13.3N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.11.2020 14.2N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.11.2020 14.7N 117.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131605

>

2020-11-13 14:58


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 131456
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 PM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020

Satellite images and microwave data this morning are showing that
Theta finally has a more classic appearance of a tropical storm.
There is a warming of cloud tops over the center, with a curved band
of convection wrapping around the eastern portion of the
circulation. The scatterometer overpasses missed the core of the
cyclone this morning. However, since the cloud pattern has not
degraded since the previous advisory, the intensity is being held at
50 kt for this advisory.

Theta is forecast to change little in intensity today as the cyclone
continues moving in a low shear zone associated with a mid- to
upper-level trough axis. By tomorrow, strong northerly shear is
forecast to begin impacting the system while stable air gets
entrained into its circulation. As a result, Theta is expected to
spin down over the weekend, degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday,
and dissipate by the middle of next week.

Theta continues to move eastward at around 10 kt, steered by a
mid-level ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern
tropical Atlantic. A turn to the east-southeast along with a gradual
slowing of the forward motion is expected later today and
continuing through the weekend as the ridge weakens, and mid-
to upper level northerly winds impart on the cyclone. Early next
week, what remains of Theta are expected to turn northward and then
accelerate northeastward as a mid-latitude cyclone passes to the
north of the region. The NHC forecast is little changed from the
previous one and lies near the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 31.7N 23.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 31.5N 22.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 31.3N 20.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 31.0N 19.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 31.1N 18.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 31.3N 18.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/1200Z 32.8N 18.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1200Z 37.4N 15.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-13 08:41


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 130838
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020

A fortuitous 0348 UTC AMSR2 microwave pass revealed that Theta's
surface center was a little to the north of the previous advisory
position. The image also indicated that the coldest brightness
temperatures were located in the northeast quadrant which sort of
conflicts with the earlier scatterometer data showing the stronger
surface winds in the southeast quadrant. More than likely though,
these winds are being produced by the pressure gradient of the
cyclone and a mid-level ridge to the southeast. Since the cloud
pattern has changed little during the past several hours and the
subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB hasn't either,
the initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory.

Theta is forecast to change little in intensity during the next 12
hours or so as the cyclone continues moving in a low shear zone
associated with a mid- to upper-level trough axis. On Saturday,
the trough migrates south of Theta, while strong northerly shear
and a more stable air mass intrude from the northwest to north. As
a result, Theta is expected to spin down and degenerate to a
remnant low on Sunday and dissipate by mid next week.

Theta has been moving eastward during the last 12 hours within the
mid-level troposphere steering current provided by a mid-level
ridge extending westward from west Africa to the eastern tropical
Atlantic. The short term motion, however, already appears to be
the anticipated to the right of track motion, or toward the
east-southeast. Regardless, this general motion along with a
reduction in forward speed is forecast during the next couple of
days as a more vertically shallow Theta is influenced by the
low-level flow. By day 3, the remnants of Theta are expected to
turn rather sharply northward and continue in this general motion
in response to an approaching deep-layer mid-latitude cyclone from
the northeastern Atlantic. The NHC forecast is similar to the
previous one through the 72 hour period, then adjusted to the right
to align more with the various consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 31.9N 24.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 31.7N 23.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 31.4N 21.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 31.1N 19.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 30.9N 18.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 31.1N 18.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0600Z 32.1N 18.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0600Z 36.0N 17.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-11-13 08:39


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 130837
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020

...THETA CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...

SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 24.9W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM SSE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 24.9 West. Theta is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). The cyclone should
turn toward the east-southeast and slow its forward speed today. A
continued slow east-southeastward motion is then expected through
the weekend followed a turn sharply toward the north by early next
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 12 hours or
so. Afterward, weakening is expected through the weekend, and
Theta is expected to become a remnant low on Sunday and dissipate
in 5 days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-11-13 08:38


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 130836
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 24.9W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 150SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 300SE 540SW 320NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 24.9W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 25.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.7N 23.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.4N 21.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.1N 19.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 30.9N 18.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.1N 18.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 32.1N 18.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 36.0N 17.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 24.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2020-11-13 02:54


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 130252
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020

The structure of Theta has been waxing and waning today with
moderate convection attempting to wrap around the center, though the
coldest cloud tops have been decaying before wrapping fully around.
Earlier, there was a 2222 UTC partial ASCAT-B pass that showed peak
winds of 40-45 kt on the south side of Theta. However the highest
winds from this instrument the previous two nights were in the
southwest quadrant and it is estimated that higher winds may still
exist in this quadrant of Theta. For this reason, the latest
intensity estimate is only adjusted downward to 50 kt for this
advisory.

Theta continues to track east at 090/12 kt as the system remains
steered by flow along the north side of a mid-level ridge. This
ridge is forecast to gradually weaken over the next 24-36 h and
Theta is forecast to bend to the east-southeast as the cyclone
becomes more influenced by mid-level northerly flow associated with
an upstream ridge building to the northwest. After 36 h, Theta is
expected to slow down significantly as it becomes a shallow cyclone
in light low-level flow. Finally, low-level southerly flow ahead of
a mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to steer Theta's remnant low
northeastward by the end of the forecast. The track guidance this
cycle has shifted a bit southward for the first part of the
forecast, and the official NHC track forecast has been adjusted
slightly further south, close to the reliable ICVN consensus.

Thus far, Theta has been struggling to produce deep convection that
has successfully wrapped around its center. While Vertical Wind
Shear is forecast to decrease per ECMWF-SHIPS guidance over the next
12-24 h, it remains to be seen if the current degree of instability
is enough for Theta to take advantage of the more conducive wind
environment. Thereafter, Vertical Wind Shear increases sharply from
the north, importing a much more stable environment over Theta. For
now, the latest NHC intensity forecast maintains the current 50 kt
intensity over the next 24 h with weakening forecasted thereafter,
in general agreement with the latest intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 31.7N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 31.7N 24.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 31.4N 22.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 31.0N 20.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 30.8N 19.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 30.8N 18.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 31.2N 18.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/0000Z 34.3N 18.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

>

2020-11-13 02:51


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 130249
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 AM GMT Fri Nov 13 2020

...THETA SLIGHTLY WEAKER AS IT CONTINUES EASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 26.0W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 26.0 West. Theta is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). The tropical storm is
forecast to gradually turn toward the east-southeast and slow its
forward speed by tomorrow night. A continued slow east-southeastward
motion is then expected through the end of the week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
24 h. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Theta is forecast
to become a remnant low by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi

>

2020-11-13 02:51


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 130248
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 26.0W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 150SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 330SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 26.0W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 26.5W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.7N 24.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.4N 22.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.0N 20.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.8N 19.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.8N 18.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 31.2N 18.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 34.3N 18.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 26.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/CANGIALOSI

>

2020-11-12 20:49


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 122047
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020

The appearance and structure of Theta has changed little today, with
intermittent bursts of convection wrapping mostly around the center
of circulation. There has been no new observational data since last
night, and it is still assumed that the cyclone's intensity remains
a somewhat uncertain 55 kt due to the consistency of its
appearance.

Theta's motion over the past 12 h is 090/10 kt as the cyclone
continues to be steered around the north side of a mid-level ridge.
A slower east-southeastward motion is expected from 36-72 h as the
mid-level ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level
northerly flow moves over Theta. After 72 h, Theta or its remnants
are expected to turn northeastward or northward and accelerate in
the low-level flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude cyclone over
the northeastern Atlantic. The latest track forecast has changed
little from the previous one and remains near the multi-model
consensus tracks.

The shear across Theta is expected to relax somewhat over the next
day or so, while the cyclone moves over cooler waters. These
counteracting effects should allow the cyclone to maintain its
intensity during that time. By this weekend, strong northerly shear
is expected to impact Theta, while stable air gets entrained into
its circulation. This should cause the cyclone to weaken, with the
system likely degenerating into a remnant low by Sunday. The latest
NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous
one and is close to the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 31.7N 27.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 31.8N 25.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 31.8N 23.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 31.5N 21.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 31.2N 20.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 31.1N 19.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 31.4N 19.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1800Z 34.0N 19.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1800Z 38.4N 15.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-12 20:47


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 122045
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020

...THETA CONTINUES EASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 27.4W
ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM S OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 27.4 West. Theta is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn to
the east-southeast along with a slowing of the forward motion.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36
hours. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Theta is
forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-12 20:47


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 122045
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 27.4W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 100SE 130SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 540SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 27.4W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 28.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.8N 25.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.8N 23.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.5N 21.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.2N 20.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.1N 19.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 31.4N 19.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 34.0N 19.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 38.4N 15.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 27.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-11-12 14:48


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 121445
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020

Although the cloud top temperatures across the broad comma-shaped
convective shield have warmed this morning, there is some new
convection that has been developing nearer to Theta's center over
the past few hours. Unfortunately, the scatterometer passes this
morning missed sampling the winds near the center of the cyclone.
However, the partial ASCAT-A overpass showed that 45 kt winds are
occurring nearly 100 n mi to the southwest of the center of Theta.
Therefore it is assumed that stronger winds are still occurring
closer to the center of the cyclone, and the initial intensity is
being held at 55 kt.

Theta has now turned to the right, and the initial motion is 080/10
kt. For about the next 36 h, the cyclone is expected to continue
moving just north of east around the north side of a mid-level
ridge. A slower east-southeastward motion is expected from 36-72 h
as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level
northerly flow moves over Theta. After 72 h, Theta or its
remnants are expected to turn northeastward or northward and
accelerate in the low-level flow ahead of an approaching deep-layer
mid-latitude cyclone over the northeastern Atlantic. The latest
track forecast is little changed from the previous one and is near
the multi-model consensus tracks.

The shear across Theta is expected to relax somewhat over the day or
so, while moving over cooler waters. The counteracting effects
should allow the cyclone to maintain its intensity. By this weekend,
strong northerly shear is expected to impact Theta, while stable air
gets entrained into its circulation. This should cause the cyclone
to weaken, with the system likely degenerating into a remnant low by
Sunday. The latest NHC intensity forecast is just slightly above the
guidance through 60 h, and is near the various consensus models
thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 31.6N 28.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 31.7N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 31.8N 24.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 31.8N 22.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 31.5N 21.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 31.2N 20.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 31.1N 19.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z 32.7N 19.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1200Z 37.6N 17.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-12 14:47


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 121445
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 PM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020

...THETA NOW MOVING EASTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 28.8W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 28.8 West. Theta is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue for the next day or so, followed by a turn to
the east-southeast along with a slowing of the forward motion.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 36
hours. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Theta is
forecast to become a remnant low on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-12 14:46


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 121444
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
1500 UTC THU NOV 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 28.8W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 100SE 130SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 540SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 28.8W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 29.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.7N 27.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.8N 24.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.8N 22.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.5N 21.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.2N 20.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 31.1N 19.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 32.7N 19.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 37.6N 17.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 28.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-11-12 08:51


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 120849
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020

Theta currently is comprised of a large swirl of low- to mid-level
clouds with no convection near the center. However, a band of
convection is wrapped about three-quarters of the way around the
center at a distance of about 200 n mi in the eastern semicircle
and 100 n mi in the western semicircle. Overall, the cyclone has
somewhat of a subtropical appearance at this time. Since there
has been no data from the cyclone's core region since the last
scatterometer pass, the initial intensity is held at 55 kt.

The storm continued to jog a little to the left since the last
advisory, but the last few satellite images suggest a more eastward
motion has resumed. The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain
060/10. For the next 24 h or so, Theta is expected to continue to
move east-northeastward as it rounds the north side of a mid-level
ridge centered over the Cabo Verde islands. An eastward to
east-southeastward motion is expected from 24-72 h as the mid-level
ridge to the south weakens and mid- to upper-level northerly flow
moves over the cyclone. After that time, Theta or its remnants is
expected to be steered northeastward in the low-level flow to the
southeast of a deep-layer mid-latitude cyclone over the
northeastern Atlantic. The new forecast track is adjusted north of
the previous track based on the initial position and motion, and it
lies near the various consensus models.

Theta is forecast to change little in intensity during the next 36
h or so as it moves into the light shear area near an upper-level
trough axis. After that time, the trough moves south of the
cyclone, and strong northerly vertical shear should occur along
with the entrainment of stable air. This combination should cause
Theta to quickly weaken, and the intensity forecast calls for the
system to decay to a remnant low pressure area by 96 h. The new
intensity forecast has only minor adjustments from the old
forecast, and it lies a little above the intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 31.7N 30.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 32.0N 28.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 32.3N 26.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 32.3N 24.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 32.0N 22.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 31.7N 20.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 31.6N 20.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 33.0N 19.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0600Z 37.0N 18.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-12 08:51


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 120849
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020

...THETA MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 30.2W
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 30.2 West. Theta is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue for the next day or so,
followed by a turn towards the east with a slower forward speed by
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through Friday.
Slow weakening is forecast to begin over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-12 08:50


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 120848
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 30.2W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 100SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 450SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 30.2W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 30.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 32.0N 28.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.3N 26.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.3N 24.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.0N 22.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.7N 20.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 31.6N 20.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 33.0N 19.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 37.0N 18.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 30.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-11-12 04:15


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 120412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 12.11.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 69.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.11.2020 0 14.3N 69.7W 1010 20
1200UTC 12.11.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.8N 83.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.11.2020 0 27.8N 83.6W 994 44
1200UTC 12.11.2020 12 29.4N 82.8W 1004 30
0000UTC 13.11.2020 24 31.3N 79.7W 1006 33
1200UTC 13.11.2020 36 33.1N 76.6W 1006 34
0000UTC 14.11.2020 48 36.1N 70.5W 1005 41
1200UTC 14.11.2020 60 40.2N 60.4W 993 46
0000UTC 15.11.2020 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM THETA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N 31.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.11.2020 0 31.1N 31.9W 986 49
1200UTC 12.11.2020 12 31.5N 29.8W 984 47
0000UTC 13.11.2020 24 31.9N 27.2W 985 47
1200UTC 13.11.2020 36 32.2N 25.3W 983 51
0000UTC 14.11.2020 48 31.9N 23.4W 982 51
1200UTC 14.11.2020 60 31.5N 21.6W 987 52
0000UTC 15.11.2020 72 31.2N 20.6W 991 53
1200UTC 15.11.2020 84 31.3N 20.6W 1003 38
0000UTC 16.11.2020 96 32.0N 21.3W 1009 32
1200UTC 16.11.2020 108 34.3N 21.8W 1013 28
0000UTC 17.11.2020 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 14.7N 105.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.11.2020 72 14.8N 106.0W 1006 26
1200UTC 15.11.2020 84 14.9N 106.6W 1006 24
0000UTC 16.11.2020 96 15.5N 107.2W 1004 24
1200UTC 16.11.2020 108 16.4N 108.3W 1003 30
0000UTC 17.11.2020 120 17.5N 110.2W 1002 35
1200UTC 17.11.2020 132 18.7N 112.3W 998 44
0000UTC 18.11.2020 144 19.9N 113.9W 998 46

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 13.0N 79.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.11.2020 84 13.0N 79.7W 1006 28
0000UTC 16.11.2020 96 13.9N 80.5W 1004 27
1200UTC 16.11.2020 108 13.6N 82.5W 1002 32
0000UTC 17.11.2020 120 14.7N 83.9W 999 37
1200UTC 17.11.2020 132 15.3N 84.9W 1001 34
0000UTC 18.11.2020 144 15.5N 86.4W 1002 35


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120412

>

2020-11-12 04:14


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 120412

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.11.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 69.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.11.2020 14.3N 69.7W WEAK
12UTC 12.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.8N 83.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.11.2020 27.8N 83.6W MODERATE
12UTC 12.11.2020 29.4N 82.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.11.2020 31.3N 79.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.11.2020 33.1N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.11.2020 36.1N 70.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.11.2020 40.2N 60.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM THETA ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N 31.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.11.2020 31.1N 31.9W MODERATE
12UTC 12.11.2020 31.5N 29.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.11.2020 31.9N 27.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.11.2020 32.2N 25.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.11.2020 31.9N 23.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.11.2020 31.5N 21.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.11.2020 31.2N 20.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.11.2020 31.3N 20.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.11.2020 32.0N 21.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.11.2020 34.3N 21.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 14.7N 105.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.11.2020 14.8N 106.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.11.2020 14.9N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.11.2020 15.5N 107.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.11.2020 16.4N 108.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2020 17.5N 110.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2020 18.7N 112.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2020 19.9N 113.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 13.0N 79.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.11.2020 13.0N 79.7W WEAK
00UTC 16.11.2020 13.9N 80.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.11.2020 13.6N 82.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2020 14.7N 83.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2020 15.3N 84.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.11.2020 15.5N 86.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120412

>

2020-11-12 03:01


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 120258
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020

The cloud appearance of Theta briefly became a bit more symmetric
earlier tonight, though the colder cloud tops that attempted to wrap
around the low-level center have recently decayed, possibly due to
entrainment of dry mid-latitude air. A 2243 UTC ASCAT-B pass
and a subsequent ASCAT-C pass both found the max winds with Theta
a little stronger than previously estimated with maximum values
exceeding 50 kt. These data support an initial intensity of 55 kt,
and this could even be a little conservative.

Over the last 6 h Theta appears to have made a slight jog left of
the previous forecast track, perhaps related to the convection
wrapping around the center, but the longer term motion is still
east-northeast at about 10 kt. Over the next day, Theta is expected
to continue to move east-northeastward as it rounds the north side
of a mid-level ridge centered over the Cape Verde islands. Between
48 h to 72 h Theta's track is forecast to bend east and then
east-southeast as the mid-level ridge to the south weakens a bit,
and mid to upper-level northerly flow from a weak mid-level ridge
attempts to build in to the west. The latest track guidance shows a
fair amount of spread in how quickly Theta makes this bend to the
east-southeast, and this is a large source of uncertainty in the
forecast. The NHC track forecast splits the difference between the
faster ECMWF and slower HMON/HWRF guidance, and is not far from the
TVCN consensus.

The intensity forecast of Theta has been adjusted upward for the
first 48 h due to the higher initial intensity. GFS-SHIPS
diagnostics indicate the vertical wind shear will gradually
decrease while Theta moves through an unstable temperature profile
conducive for moderate to deep convection. Thereafter, the
aforementioned upper-level northerly flow will lead to an increase
in the vertical wind shear and import very stable mid-latitude air
over Theta?--s circulation. Most of the reliable global model
guidance shows Theta succumbing to these negative effects and
becoming a remnant low by 96 h. The official intensity forecast
shows the same, and is on the high side of the guidance but not far
from any of the models since the spread is quite low.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 31.1N 31.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 31.5N 29.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 32.0N 27.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 32.1N 25.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 31.8N 23.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 31.4N 21.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 31.2N 20.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 31.2N 19.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0000Z 35.6N 18.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky

>

2020-11-12 02:55


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 120253
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 AM GMT Thu Nov 12 2020

...THETA A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT CONTINUES EAST-NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.1N 31.4W
ABOUT 540 MI...865 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 31.1 North, longitude 31.4 West. Theta is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). This
general motion is expected for the next day or so, followed by a
turn toward the east with a slower forward speed by Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
couple of days. Slow weakening is forecast to begin over the
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Zelinsky

>

2020-11-12 02:54


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 120252
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 31.4W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......140NE 100SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 330SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 31.4W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 31.9W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.5N 29.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.0N 27.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.1N 25.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.8N 23.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.4N 21.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 31.2N 20.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 50SE 50SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 31.2N 19.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 35.6N 18.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.1N 31.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/ZELINSKY

>

2020-11-11 20:53


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 112050
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 PM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020

The deep convection associated with Theta has been trying to wrap
around the cyclone's low-level center today, and the system consists
of a large curved band feature with clouds tops as cold as -65
degrees C. There was no complete sampling of the cyclone's
circulation by the scatterometers today. However, a partial ASCAT-C
overpass this morning showed that 40-45 kt winds were occurring in
the eastern semicircle. This portion of the circulation has
previously been the weaker portion of Theta, which suggests some
higher winds could be occurring in the western semicircle.
Therefore, the initial intensity is being kept at a somewhat
uncertain 50 kt.

Theta appears to be holding its own in an environment of strong
southwesterly shear and over relatively cool water temperatures of
about 24 degrees C, within a favorable unstable atmosphere. The
cyclone will be traversing over progressively cooler waters over the
next couple of days, and the shear is expected to only abate
slightly. These somewhat counteracting factors should either allow
Theta to maintain its intensity or slowly weaken during that time.
Over the weekend, the upper-level winds are expected to increase
and shift out of the north, and force more stable air across the
cyclone. This should cause the convection to become displaced to the
south of the center and gradually dissipate. The GFS/CMC/ECMWF
simulated satellite imagery all indicate that the system should
degenerate to a remnant low by 96 h. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous one, and remains near the
various multimodel consensus aids.

The storm is moving east-northeastward at around 11 kt, steered by
mid-latitude westerlies to the north of a mid-level ridge. This
steering pattern is expected to remain in place for the next couple
of days. Model guidance is trending slower over the weekend, as they
are indicating that the ridge will weaken at around the same time
that the shear vector becomes northerly. This would cause the
cyclone to slow its forward motion and turn to the right, which is
now indicated in the official forecast. However, the latest NHC
track remains a little north of the consensus track guidance during
that time frame. By the end of the forecast period, an approaching
mid-latitude trough and associated front should pick up what remains
of Theta and begin to accelerate it to the northeast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 30.5N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 31.1N 30.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 31.5N 27.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 31.9N 25.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 32.1N 23.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 32.0N 22.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 31.8N 21.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 31.7N 19.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/1800Z 35.1N 18.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-11 20:49


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 112047
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 PM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020

...THETA MARCHING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 31.9W
ABOUT 590 MI...945 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 31.9 West. Theta is
moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Friday, followed by a
turn to the east along with a slowing of the forward motion.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Only slight weakening is expected over the next couple of days.
Faster weakening is forecast to occur this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-11 20:47


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 112045
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
2100 UTC WED NOV 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 31.9W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 31.9W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 32.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 31.1N 30.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.5N 27.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.9N 25.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.1N 23.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.0N 22.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 31.8N 21.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 31.7N 19.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 35.1N 18.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.5N 31.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-11-11 16:07


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 111605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 11.11.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 69.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.11.2020 0 14.9N 69.4W 1011 27
0000UTC 12.11.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 83.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.11.2020 0 25.6N 83.7W 990 50
0000UTC 12.11.2020 12 27.9N 83.4W 986 52
1200UTC 12.11.2020 24 29.7N 82.7W 1002 31
0000UTC 13.11.2020 36 32.2N 79.2W 1004 39
1200UTC 13.11.2020 48 34.2N 75.3W 1003 42
0000UTC 14.11.2020 60 37.4N 69.1W 998 44
1200UTC 14.11.2020 72 41.7N 58.0W 981 61
0000UTC 15.11.2020 84 47.7N 49.2W 965 53
1200UTC 15.11.2020 96 49.1N 45.2W 968 57
0000UTC 16.11.2020 108 50.0N 38.9W 975 48
1200UTC 16.11.2020 120 53.9N 30.9W 981 36
0000UTC 17.11.2020 132 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM THETA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 34.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.11.2020 0 29.7N 34.0W 995 45
0000UTC 12.11.2020 12 30.9N 32.1W 982 54
1200UTC 12.11.2020 24 31.6N 30.2W 976 56
0000UTC 13.11.2020 36 31.9N 27.9W 979 53
1200UTC 13.11.2020 48 31.9N 26.3W 979 52
0000UTC 14.11.2020 60 31.7N 24.4W 981 52
1200UTC 14.11.2020 72 31.1N 23.2W 985 56
0000UTC 15.11.2020 84 30.6N 22.3W 992 52
1200UTC 15.11.2020 96 30.9N 22.3W 1003 36
0000UTC 16.11.2020 108 32.0N 23.2W 1009 28
1200UTC 16.11.2020 120 34.7N 23.9W 1012 29
0000UTC 17.11.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.6N 81.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.11.2020 108 13.8N 82.3W 1005 26
1200UTC 16.11.2020 120 14.7N 83.2W 1004 30
0000UTC 17.11.2020 132 14.7N 85.5W 1004 32
1200UTC 17.11.2020 144 16.1N 85.6W 1003 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 14.7N 106.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.11.2020 108 14.7N 106.5W 1005 28
1200UTC 16.11.2020 120 15.7N 106.9W 1005 26
0000UTC 17.11.2020 132 16.4N 108.4W 1004 29
1200UTC 17.11.2020 144 16.7N 110.0W 1003 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111605

>

2020-11-11 16:07


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 111605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 11.11.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 69.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.11.2020 14.9N 69.4W WEAK
00UTC 12.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.6N 83.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.11.2020 25.6N 83.7W MODERATE
00UTC 12.11.2020 27.9N 83.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.11.2020 29.7N 82.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 13.11.2020 32.2N 79.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.11.2020 34.2N 75.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.11.2020 37.4N 69.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.11.2020 41.7N 58.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 15.11.2020 47.7N 49.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.11.2020 49.1N 45.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.11.2020 50.0N 38.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.11.2020 53.9N 30.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.11.2020 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM THETA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 34.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL302020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.11.2020 29.7N 34.0W MODERATE
00UTC 12.11.2020 30.9N 32.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.11.2020 31.6N 30.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.11.2020 31.9N 27.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.11.2020 31.9N 26.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.11.2020 31.7N 24.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.11.2020 31.1N 23.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.11.2020 30.6N 22.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.11.2020 30.9N 22.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.11.2020 32.0N 23.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.11.2020 34.7N 23.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.6N 81.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.11.2020 13.8N 82.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.11.2020 14.7N 83.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2020 14.7N 85.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2020 16.1N 85.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 14.7N 106.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.11.2020 14.7N 106.5W WEAK
12UTC 16.11.2020 15.7N 106.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.11.2020 16.4N 108.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.11.2020 16.7N 110.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 111605

>

2020-11-11 14:46


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 111444
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 PM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020

Theta's center continues to be devoid of deep convection, with the
convective mass located primarily to the north of the center due to
strong shear. A recent partial ASCAT overpass showed a slight
decrease in the winds over the eastern semicircle. However, the pass
did not sample the western portion of the circulation which has
previously had the strongest winds. Based on the slightly lower
ASCAT values, and the assumption that the rest of the vortex has
spun down slightly due to the lack of convection over the center,
the initial intensity is decreased to 50 kt.

Theta is moving east-northeastward at 9 kt, steered by the southern
part of the mid-latitude westerlies to the north of a mid-level
ridge. This steering pattern is expected to remain in place through
much of the weekend. By early next week, the ridge is forecast
weaken ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This would cause
the cyclone to slow its forward motion temporarily before it gets
picked up by the trough. The latest NHC forecast is near the
previous one through 72 h, and is a little slower during days 4-5
due to the slowing of the guidance. This latest forecast is very
near the clustered track consensus models.

Despite the strong shear and cool water temperatures, the
instability aloft should continue to support deep convection for at
least the next few days. The shear is forecast to lessen somewhat
in a day or so, but will still be relatively strong. Since the
cyclone has been weakening slowly in the current environment, it is
anticipated that the pace of weakening may lessen during the next
few days with the decrease in shear. Beyond that time, the
upper-level winds are forecast to become more northerly, and
at about the same time the instability is forecast to decrease.
These factors should cause any remaining convection to dissipate,
with Theta likely becoming post-tropical by day 5. The latest
NHC intensity forecast was adjusted slightly downward from the
previous one mainly due to the lower initial intensity and is near
the IVCN and HCCA consensus model forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 29.8N 33.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 30.3N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 30.7N 29.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 31.1N 27.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 31.5N 25.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 31.8N 23.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 31.9N 22.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 32.2N 20.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 34.7N 19.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-11 14:46


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 111444
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 PM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020

...THETA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 33.3W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 29.8 North, longitude 33.3 West. Theta is
moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast over the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-11 14:45


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 111443
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
1500 UTC WED NOV 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 33.3W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 33.3W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 33.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.3N 31.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.7N 29.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.1N 27.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.5N 25.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.8N 23.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.9N 22.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.2N 20.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 34.7N 19.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.8N 33.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-11-11 08:58


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 110855
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020

Convection associated with Theta has decreased further this
morning, with strong southwesterly shear displacing the remaining
convection to the north of the center. Based on the decreased
organization, the initial intensity is lowered slightly to 55 kt.

Theta has continued to slow its forward speed, with the initial
motion now 075/7. The cyclone is being steered by the southern
part of the mid-latitude westerlies to the north of a mid-level
ridge, and this general motion should continue for the next 72 h or
so. After that time, the global models suggest that the cyclone
should shear apart, with the remnant low-level circulation moving
northeastward on the southeast side of a deep-layer cyclone over
the northeastern Atlantic. There has been little change in the
guidance since the previous advisory, and the new official forecast
track is similar to the previous track.

While the cyclone is currently experiencing strong shear, the
global models show that this might diminish somewhat during the
next 72 h as Theta moves into an area of light winds near an
upper-level trough axis. This, combined with sufficient
instability for deep convection, should allow the storm to change
little in strength during this time. After 72 h, strong mid- to
upper-level northerly flow should cause the system to weaken as the
convection dissipates and the upper-level portion of the storm is
pushed off to the south. The new intensity forecast is lowered a
bit from the previous forecast, and it lies in the middle of the
intensity guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 29.4N 34.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 29.9N 33.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 30.8N 29.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 31.3N 26.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 31.8N 24.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 32.1N 23.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 32.5N 21.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 34.0N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-11 08:58


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 110854
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 34.7W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 70SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 34.7W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 35.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.9N 33.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 75SE 110SW 165NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.8N 29.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.3N 26.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 31.8N 24.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 85NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 32.1N 23.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 32.5N 21.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 34.0N 20.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 34.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-11-11 08:57


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 110855
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020

...THETA WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 34.7W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 34.7 West. Theta is
moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-11 02:49


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 110247
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020

Convection with Theta has waned some since the previous advisory,
with the coldest cloud tops now focused in a band on the
northeastern side of the partially exposed circulation. Despite this
decrease in convective coverage, a 2304 UTC ASCAT-B pass showed a
large region of 50 kt winds with at least one 55 kt barb.
Accounting for a bit of undersampling of this instrument and
maintaining continuity with the previous advisory, the maximum
sustained winds have been kept at 60 kt for this advisory.

Theta has slowed a bit tonight on the same east-northeast heading at
075/10 kt. The steering philosophy in the first part of the forecast
has remained the same, with Theta moving off to the east-northeast
while it continues to round the northern edge of a mid-level ridge
providing the steering flow. The latest track guidance has slowed
down the forward motion a bit more this cycle, and the new track
forecast splits the difference between the previous forecast and
some of the more reliable global model guidance that is slower and
south of the NHC track. At the end of the forecast period both the
ECMWF and GFS are forecasting Theta to become a shallow vortex as
the remaining convection is stripped away, and this could cause
Theta to slow down in the weaker low-level flow and move more
slowly to the northeast at the end of the forecast period.

Despite moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures
over the next 48-72 h, upper-level temperatures are also forecast to
cool per GFS-SHIPS, which should provide enough instability for
moderate to deep convection. In addition, vertical wind shear may
decrease some in the 48-72 h period as Theta remains in light flow
along an upper-level trough axis. Therefore, the latest NHC
intensity forecast remains on the high end of the guidance for the
first three days, but now shows a faster weakening trend thereafter
as vertical wind shear increases out of the north and strips the
remaining convection away. At 5 days the forecast now makes Theta a
remnant low since it appears the circulation will be too shallow to
take advantage of more favorable baroclinic conditions that would
ordinarily allow for extratropical transition.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 29.4N 35.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 29.7N 34.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 30.1N 32.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 30.5N 30.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 31.0N 27.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 31.7N 25.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 32.2N 23.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 32.8N 21.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 34.5N 20.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

2020-11-11 02:46


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 110244
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 AM GMT Wed Nov 11 2020

...THETA MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES OVER THE OPEN EASTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 35.5W
ABOUT 770 MI...1235 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 35.5 West. Theta is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 72
hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

2020-11-11 02:46


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 110244
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 35.5W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......150NE 70SE 120SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 240SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 35.5W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 35.8W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.7N 34.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 75SE 110SW 165NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.1N 32.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 115SW 125NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.5N 30.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...105NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.0N 27.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...105NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.7N 25.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 25SE 35SW 35NW.
34 KT... 85NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.2N 23.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 32.8N 21.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 34.5N 20.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 35.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN

>

2020-11-10 20:39


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 102037
TCDAT5

Tropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020

A central dense overcast has persisted near the center of Theta
since yesterday, and although the clouds tops have warmed over the
past several hours there remains a distinct curved band feature
over the northern portion of the circulation. Water vapor imagery
shows the mid- upper-level trough that was over the Azores is
beginning to leave the cyclone behind. Based on these factors, and
the earlier indications of a compact radius of maximum winds, it
appears that Theta has completed a transition to a tropical
cyclone. Even though the clouds tops have recently warmed, the
overall structure of Theta has not degraded by much since the
previous advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity is being held
at 60 kt.

The storm is moving 075/12 kt around the north side of a mid-level
ridge. This feature should continue to steer Theta in a generally
east-northeastward motion for the next few days. Late in the
forecast period, the ridge will begin to weaken as another trough
approaches from the northwest. This should cause the cyclone to slow
its forward motion and begin to turn to the northeast. The latest
model guidance has once again slowed down and the new NHC track
forecast now lies between the previous one and the various consensus
models.

Although Theta will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs and
within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to
remain unstable for the next day or so, which should be supportive
of deep convection. Therefore, little change is strength is
indicated during that time. Some weakening is anticipated later in
the forecast period as the airmass becomes more stable. By the end
of the 5-day forecast period, the combination of the cooler waters
and an approaching trough should result in extratropical transition.
The NHC intensity forecast has changed little from the previous one
and remains near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 29.4N 36.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 29.8N 34.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 30.3N 32.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 30.8N 30.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 31.5N 28.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 32.1N 25.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 32.6N 23.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 33.2N 20.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 34.4N 19.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-10 20:36


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 102034
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020

...THETA TRANSITIONS TO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 36.2W
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 36.2 West. Theta is
moving toward the east-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
couple of days. Some slow weakening is expected by later this week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-10 20:36


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 102033
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
2100 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 36.2W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 36.2W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 36.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.8N 34.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 30.3N 32.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.8N 30.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.5N 28.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.1N 25.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 30SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 32.6N 23.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 33.2N 20.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 34.4N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 36.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-11-10 14:55


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 101452
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020

Theta continues to exhibit a mix of tropical and subtropical
characteristics. The cyclone has a fairly compact radius of maximum
winds with a central dense overcast over the northern portion of the
circulation. However, there is a strong subtropical jet located just
to the south of Theta, and strong upper-level winds in the
surrounding environment in the presence of an upper trough. Based on
this inconclusive data, Theta is being maintained as a subtropical
storm for this advisory. An ASCAT-B overpass this morning revealed
50-kt winds in the northwest and southwest quadrants, with several
55-60 kt wind vectors, some of those vectors outside of the deep
convection making them more believable. Based on this, the initial
advisory intensity has been set to 60 kt.

The storm is moving just north of due east, or 085/13 kt. Theta
should continue to be steered eastward to east-northeastward during
the next several days on the north side of a mid-level ridge. This
motion should take the cyclone across the subtropical eastern
Atlantic throughout the forecast period. The latest model guidance
is a little faster and slightly north of the previous forecast
track, and so the latest NHC forecast has been adjusted slightly as
well.

Theta is still expected to transition to a tropical storm later
today as it separates from the upper-level trough. Although Theta
will be tracking over progressively cooler SSTs and within moderate
wind shear conditions, the air mass is expected to remain unstable
for the next couple of days, which should be supportive of deep
convection. Therefore, little change is strength is indicated during
that time. Some weakening is anticipated later in the forecast
period as the airmass becomes more stable. The NHC intensity
forecast is higher than the previous one primarily due to the higher
initial intensity, and is near the IVCN and HCCA consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 29.0N 37.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 29.1N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 29.7N 33.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 30.4N 31.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 31.1N 28.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 31.7N 26.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 32.2N 23.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 33.0N 19.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 34.3N 17.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-10 14:54


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 101452
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020

...THETA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT CONTINUES HEADING EASTWARD
OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 37.4W
ABOUT 860 MI...1385 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 37.4 West. The storm is
moving toward the east near 15 mph (24 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion across the eastern Atlantic is expected
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
couple of days. Some slow weakening is expected by later this week.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-11-10 14:54


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 101452
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 37.4W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 0SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......120NE 70SE 90SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 37.4W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 38.0W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.1N 35.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.7N 33.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.4N 31.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 31.1N 28.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.7N 26.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 32.2N 23.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 33.0N 19.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 34.3N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.0N 37.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-11-10 13:59


Original Message :

WTNT65 KNHC 101356
TCUAT5

Subtropical Storm Theta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
155 PM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020

...THETA STRONGER...

Recently received satellite wind data indicate that Theta has
strengthened and now has maximum sustained winds of around 70 mph
(110 km/h), with higher gusts. This change in intensity will be
reflected in the forecast that will be issued with the 300 PM GMT
(1500 UTC) advisory.


SUMMARY OF 155 PM GMT...1355 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 37.6W
ABOUT 875 MI...1410 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Latto/Brennan

>

2020-11-10 08:50


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 100848
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020

Theta has generally changed little during the past several hours.
The cyclone has some characteristics of a tropical cyclone,
including a central dense overcast and a relatively small radius of
maximum wind. However, the storm is still entangled with an
upper-level trough, and based on all of these factors, Theta is
being maintained as a subtropical storm. The initial wind speed
remains 45 kt, which is at the high end of the satellite intensity
estimates.

The storm is moving due eastward at about 10 kt. The track
forecast reasoning seems fairly straightforward. A trough to the
north of the subtropical storm is expected to lift out, and Theta
should be steered eastward to east-northeastward during the next
several days on the north side of a mid-level ridge. This motion
should take the cyclone across the subtropical eastern Atlantic
throughout the forecast period. The models are in fairly good
agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the various
consensus aids.

Theta should transition to a tropical storm later today as it
separates from the upper-level trough. Little change in intensity
is expected during the next several days due to mixed environmental
conditions. Although Theta will be tracking over progressively
cooler SSTs and within moderate wind shear conditions, the air mass
is expected to remain unstable, which should be supportive of deep
convection. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous
one and lies near the high end of the model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 28.8N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 28.9N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 29.2N 35.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 29.7N 33.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 31.0N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 31.4N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 32.2N 22.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 33.1N 19.9W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-10 08:50


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 100847
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 39.5W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 39.5W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 40.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 28.9N 37.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 80SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.2N 35.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 29.7N 33.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 30.4N 31.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 31.0N 29.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 31.4N 26.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 110SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 32.2N 22.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 33.1N 19.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 39.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-11-10 08:49


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 100847
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
900 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020

...THETA EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 39.5W
ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 39.5 West. The storm is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion across the eastern Atlantic is expected
during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected during the next few days.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-10 03:01


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 100259
TCDAT5

Subtropical Storm Theta Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020

Over the past 12 h convection has slowly consolidated near the
center of a non-tropical area of low pressure over the far
northeast Atlantic. Earlier, there was a 2325 UTC ASCAT-B pass that
showed that the low-level circulation had become more detached
from the warm frontal boundary located to its northeast. In
addition, the ASCAT pass showed that winds have increased to near 45
kt on the southeast portion of the circulation near where coldest
convective cloud tops were located. Both a 2137 UTC SSMIS and 2324
UTC AMSU microwave pass showed convective banding under the cirrus
canopy near where the highest winds were observed. However, water
vapor satellite imagery still shows the presence of a broad
upper-level low tangled up with the low-level circulation embedded
in the convection. Therefore, Theta has been designated as a
subtropical storm with maximum wind of 45 kt.

Theta has been on a near due east heading over the last 12 h at
90/13 kt. Currently the cyclone is located south of a broad
deep-layer longwave trough. This trough is expected to bypass the
cyclone to the east and Theta will primarily be steered by
southwesterly flow on the northern periphery of a mid-level ridge
centered over the Cape Verde islands. This flow will steer Theta
slowly to the east-northeast over the next 3-5 days. The track
guidance is in good agreement with this solution, with only minor
differences in across-track spread. There are somewhat larger
differences in the along-track spread related to different forward
motion, but the latest NHC track forecast elected to stay close to
the track consensus at this time.

Theta?--s structure has evolved from a frontal cyclone to a
subtropical cyclone, though a frontal boundary remains nearby on the
northeast side of the circulation. This boundary is expected to
gradually dissipate and Theta is expected to fully transition to a
tropical storm in 24 h as convection erodes the upper-level cyclonic
flow overhead. The maximum sustained winds were increased slightly
in the first 12 h of the forecast but are kept at 50 kt through 120
h which is on the high end of the intensity guidance.

Theta is the 29th named storm in the record-breaking 2020 Atlantic
Hurricane Season, breaking the previous record of 28th named storms
in 2005.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 28.8N 40.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
12H 10/1200Z 29.0N 38.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...SUBTROPICAL STORM
24H 11/0000Z 29.1N 36.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
36H 11/1200Z 29.5N 34.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 30.0N 32.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 30.5N 30.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 31.0N 28.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 32.2N 24.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 33.3N 20.6W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

2020-11-10 03:01


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 100259
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Subtropical Storm Theta Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL302020
300 AM GMT Tue Nov 10 2020

...SUBTROPICAL STORM FORMS OVER THE OPEN NORTHEAST ATLANTIC...
...RECORD-BREAKING 29TH NAMED STORM OF THE SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.8N 40.3W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Subtropical Storm Theta was
located near latitude 28.8 North, longitude 40.3 West. The storm is
moving toward the east near 15 mph (24 km/h), and a general
east-northeast motion is expected to continue during the next two to
three days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible during the next 12 to 24 hours
followed by little change in strength through Thursday.

Winds of 40 mph extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the
center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Brown

>

2020-11-10 02:58


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 100256
TCMAT5

SUBTROPICAL STORM THETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL302020
0300 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

SUBTROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 40.3W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 70SE 100SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 40.3W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 41.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 29.0N 38.6W...SUBTROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 30NE 80SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 29.1N 36.3W...TROPICAL STORM
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 29.5N 34.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 30.0N 32.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 25SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 110SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 30.5N 30.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 25SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.0N 28.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 110SE 75SW 75NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 32.2N 24.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 33.3N 20.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.8N 40.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PAPIN/BROWN

>