Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for ETA-20
in Nicaragua, United States, Honduras

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2020-11-13 08:36


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 130834
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Discussion Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

While the cyclone is still generating a cluster of strong
convection to the northeast of the center, satellite imagery,
surface observations and scatterometer data indicate that Eta has
merged with a baroclinic zone and become an extratropical cyclone
off the southeastern coast of the United States. The scatterometer
data showed vectors of 40-50 kt along a front or convergence zone
northeast of the center, but these vectors were in the strong
convective region and their reliability is uncertain. This, the
initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 40 kt. Eta is
forecast to strengthen as a baroclinic low until the system is
absorbed by another low pressure area in about 48 h.

The initial motion is 060/18. The post-tropical cyclone cyclone
should continue this general motion with an increase in forward
speed until it is absorbed.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Eta. Additional information on this system can be found in
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under
AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 33.3N 76.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 13/1800Z 35.0N 73.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 14/0600Z 37.9N 66.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/1800Z 41.1N 57.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 15/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-13 08:36


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 130833
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta Advisory Number 52
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2020

...ETA BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.3N 76.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SE OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Eta
was located near latitude 33.3 North, longitude 76.8 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 21
mph (33 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue with an
increase in forward speed through Saturday. On the forecast track,
Eta is expected to gradually pull away from the southeast U.S.
coast today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta could intensify a little as an non-tropical cyclone during the
next day or so before it becomes absorbed by a larger non-tropical
cyclone on Saturday or Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Eta will affect portions of the
southeastern United States coast today. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-13 08:35


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 130833
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 52
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0900 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 76.8W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.3N 76.8W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 78.0W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.0N 73.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 37.9N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 41.1N 57.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...ABSORBED BY AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.3N 76.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-11-13 02:46


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 130244
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

Satellite images and surface observations indicate that the
circulation of Eta is becoming stretched as it interacts with a
frontal boundary just to its west. Deep convection is mostly
confined to the northern side of the system and in patches
associated with its trailing trough. Since buoy 41004 off the
South Carolina coast recently reported sustained winds of 37 kt,
the initial intensity is nudged up to 40 kt for this advisory.

The models show the circulation of Eta continuing to lose definition
overnight, and it is possible that the tropical storm will open up
into a trough soon. Whatever is left of Eta will merge with the
nearby front on Friday, causing it to transition into an
extratropical cyclone. The non-tropical low is then forecast to
dissipate on Saturday over the north Atlantic. Eta, or its
remnants, will likely strengthen slightly before it dissipates on
Saturday due to the predicted faster forward speed and baroclinic
influences.

Eta is moving northeastward at 15 kt. An even faster motion to the
northeast is expected until the cyclone dissipates as it moves in
the flow ahead of a deep-layer trough. This should take Eta, or
its remnants, gradually away from the southeast U.S. coast.

Deep-layer moisture partly associated with Eta has spread
northward along a frontal boundary across eastern North Carolina
and just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. See products
from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National
Weather Service office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 32.3N 79.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 33.6N 76.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 36.1N 70.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/1200Z 39.3N 62.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-13 02:46


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 130243
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 51
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...CENTER OF ETA JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 79.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 32.3 North, longitude 79.0 West. Eta is moving
toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this heading with
an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or two.
On the forecast track, Eta is expected to gradually pull away from
the southeast U.S. coast.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta could intensify a little as a non-tropical cyclone during the
next day or so before it becomes absorbed by a larger non-tropical
cyclone on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. An observation at Folly Beach Pier in South
Carolina recently reported a wind gust of 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Rain bands extending southwest of Eta?--s center will
produce an additional 1 to 2 inches over portions of South Florida
tonight, where isolated maximum storm total accumulations will range
between 20 and 25 inches. Localized flash and urban flooding will be
possible overnight, especially across previously inundated areas.

Minor river flooding is expected across portions of West Florida
lasting into the weekend.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta will affect portions of the
southeastern United States coast through Friday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-13 02:45


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 130243
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 51
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0300 UTC FRI NOV 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 79.0W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 79.0W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 79.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.6N 76.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 36.1N 70.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 39.3N 62.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 79.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-11-12 20:45


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 122043
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the center
of Eta moved off the Georgia coast around 18z, a little farther
north than previously anticipated. The satellite presentation of
the storm has become quite ragged with the primary convective band
located well east of the center. The circulation has also become
more elongated, with the strongest winds occurring east of the
center over the Atlantic waters. Based on the continued
degradation of Eta's organization, the initial wind speed has been
lowered to 35 kt. Little change in strength is anticipated
through early Friday due to moderate to strong westerly shear. The
UKMET and ECMWF models continue to show some re-intensification of
the system as an extratropical low by late Friday, and that is what
is indicated in the official foreast. A plausible alternative
scenario that is favored by the GFS is for the circulation to
become elongated and dissipate along an approaching frontal boundary
on Friday.

Eta is moving northeastward at about 16 kt. The cyclone should
continue to accelerate northeastward over the next day or so ahead
of a mid-latitude trough that is forecast to move across the Great
Lakes Region and approach the northeastern United States on Friday.
Only slight modifications to the previous official forecast were
required, and the new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the
tightly clustered dynamical models.

Deep-layer moisture that has spread northward along a frontal
boundary across portions of eastern North Carolina and the
Mid-Atlantic coast is producing heavy rainfall and flash flooding
that is not directly associated with Eta. See products from the
NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your local National Weather
Service office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 31.6N 80.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 33.2N 77.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 35.6N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 14/0600Z 38.7N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-12 20:44


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 122041
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...CENTER OF ETA EXPECTED TO PASS JUST OFFSHORE OF THE COAST OF
SOUTH AND NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 80.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 31.6 North, longitude 80.6 West. Eta is moving
toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h) A faster
north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected over the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, Eta is expected to
accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but
offshore of the Carolinas tonight and early Friday before heading
well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast by late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through early Friday.
Eta could re-intensify as a non-tropical cyclone late Friday or
Friday night before becoming absorbed by a larger non-tropical
cyclone on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Eta will produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rain
across portions of the southeastern Florida Peninsula through early
tonight, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 to 25
inches in South Florida.

Localized flash and urban flooding will be possible across the
Florida Peninsula today, especially across previously inundated
areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of West
Florida lasting into the weekend.

Deep-layer moisture that has spread northward along a frontal
boundary across the Carolinas is producing heavy rainfall along with
flash and significant river flooding that is not directly associated
with Eta. See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and
your local National Weather Service office for additional
information.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta will affect portions of the
southeastern United States coast through early Friday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-12 20:43


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 122040
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 50
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
2100 UTC THU NOV 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 80.6W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 80.6W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 81.3W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 33.2N 77.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 90SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.6N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 38.7N 66.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.6N 80.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-11-12 17:53


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 121751
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 49A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...ETA MOVING OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS NEAR THE
FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 81.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM NNE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All Tropical Storm Warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 30.8 North, longitude 81.4 West. Eta is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster
north-northeastward to northeastward motion is expected over the
next couple of days. On the forecast track, Eta is expected to
accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but
offshore of the Carolinas tonight and early Friday before heading
well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast by late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast through early Friday.
Eta could re-intensify as a non-tropical cyclone late Friday or
Friday night before becoming absorbed by a larger non-tropical
cyclone on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
primarily over water to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain
across portions of the Florida Peninsula through today, with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 to 25 inches in
South Florida.

Localized flash and urban flooding will be possible across the
Florida Peninsula today, especially across previously inundated
areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of West
Florida lasting into the weekend.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to begin to affect
portions of the coast of the southeastern United States later
today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-12 14:49


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 121447
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

The center of Eta made landfall near Cedar Key, Florida with
an estimated intensity of 45 kt shortly after the release of the
previous NHC advisory package. Since that time, the center of Eta
has moved across the northern portion of the Florida peninsula.
Some weakening has occurred, but ship and buoy observations along
and just off the northeast Florida coast support an initial
intensity of 40 kt. Little change in strength is expected when Eta
moves over the western Atlantic tonight and early Friday due to
moderate to strong southwesterly shear. The ECMWF and UKMET models
indicate that Eta could strengthen after it merges with a frontal
zone and becomes extratropical well offshore of the east coast
of the United States late Friday and Friday night. The NHC
forecast calls for some slight intensification of the extratropical
cyclone before it is absorbed by a large low pressure area over the
western Atlantic on Saturday.

Eta is moving northeastward at about 13 kt. Eta should continue to
accelerate northeastward over the next day or so within the
mid-latitude westerlies, ahead of a trough that will move
across the Great Lakes region on Friday. The new official forecast
is again a little faster than the previous NHC track, but the
latest guidance did not require much cross-track change.

Deep-layer moisture from that has spread northward along a
frontal boundary across the Carolinas is producing heavy rainfall
and flash flooding that is not directly associated with Eta.
See products from the NOAA Weather Prediction Center and your
local National Weather Service office for additional information.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning area
along portions of the northeast Florida Coast through early this
afternoon.

2. Localized bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact
portions of the Florida Peninsula today, resulting in isolated flash
and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas.
Minor river flooding is expected across portions of West Florida
lasting into the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 30.2N 81.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 32.0N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 34.1N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 37.3N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/1200Z 40.5N 62.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-12 14:49


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 121446
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 49
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...CENTER OF ETA MOVING OVER NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
...STILL PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER
PORTIONS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 81.8W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews
Sound Georgia.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 81.8 West. Eta is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster
northeastward motion is expected over the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, the center of Eta will emerge into the
western Atlantic by early this afternoon. The cyclone is expected
to accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but
offshore of the Carolinas tonight and early Friday before heading
well east of the Mid-Atlantic coast by late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through early Friday. Eta
could re-intensify as a non-tropical cyclone late Friday or Friday
night before becoming absorbed by a larger non-tropical cyclone
on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
primarily over water to the east of the center. A NOAA Coastal
Marine Observing site at St. Augustine Florida reported sustained
winds of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust of 44 mph (70 km/h). A wind
gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was recently reported at the Mayport Naval
Air Station near Jacksonville, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain
across portions of the Florida Peninsula through today, with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 to 25 inches in
South Florida.

Localized flash and urban flooding will be possible across the
Florida Peninsula today, especially across previously inundated
areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of West
Florida lasting into the weekend.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the east coast of Florida through early this
afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the Florida
Gulf Coast today, and begin to affect portions of the coast of the
southeastern United States later today. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-12 14:48


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 121446
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 49
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
1500 UTC THU NOV 12 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FLORIDA LINE NORTHWARD TO ST. ANDREWS
SOUND GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 81.8W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 81.8W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 82.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 32.0N 79.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 34.1N 76.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 37.3N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 40.5N 62.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 81.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-11-12 11:57


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 121155
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 48A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...CENTER OF ETA MOVING ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA...
...STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 82.4W
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM W OF GAINESVILLE FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SW OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge and Tropical Storm warnings have been discontinued
for the west coast of Florida.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews
Sound Georgia.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 82.4 West. Eta is
moving toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). Eta should move
across northeastern Florida this morning and emerge into the
western Atlantic this afternoon. The cyclone is expected to
accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but
offshore of the Carolinas before heading well east of the
Mid-Atlantic coast by late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eta could re-intensify as a non-tropical cyclone
on Friday before becoming absorbed by a larger non-tropical cyclone
on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
primarily over water to the east of the center. A NOAA Coastal
Marine Observing site at St. Augustine Florida recently reported
sustained winds of 37 mph (59 km/h) and a gust of 44 mph (70 km/h)

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches)
based on surface observations from Cedar Key.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa
Bay...1-3 ft

Water levels remain elevated and will gradually decrease throughout
the day as the storm moves inland. Surge-related flooding depends
on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can
vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

RAINFALL: Eta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain
across portions of the Florida Peninsula through today, with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 to 25 inches in
South Florida.

Localized flash and urban flooding will be possible across the
Florida Peninsula today, especially across previously inundated
areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of west
Florida lasting into the weekend.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the east coast of Florida through early this
afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the Florida
Gulf Coast today and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto

>

2020-11-12 09:19


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 120917
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
420 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...ETA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA...

A National Ocean Service weather station indicates that Eta made
landfall near Cedar Key Florida at 400 AM EST. Maximum sustained
winds were estimated at 50 mph (85 km/h), with a minimum central
pressure of 996 mb (29.42 inches).


SUMMARY OF 420 AM EST...0920 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 83.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM NNE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-12 08:56


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 120854
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

Satellite images indicate that Eta has lost most of its central
deep convection over the past several hours, with the radar center
becoming poorly defined and decreasing winds aloft noted. The last
Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission found winds to support about 50
kt, and with the continued loss of organization, the current wind
speed is lowered to 45 kt. The tropical cyclone should be making
landfall in the Cedar Key area soon.

Eta is forecast to weaken over its short passage over the Florida
peninsula later today, and over the western Atlantic tonight due to
strong shear. There has been a change in some of the guidance
showing the tropical cyclone re-gaining strength as a non-tropical
low after 24 hours due to a more favorable positioning with the
next mid-latitude trough near the Great Lakes on Friday. The
strongest solutions are seen in the UKMET and ECMWF models, which
indicate even storm-force winds are possible in a few days. I'd
rather wait one more cycle to see if this trend continues but, as a
compromise, the new forecast shows some re-strengthening as an
extratropical cyclone and reverses any former weakening trend.

The storm is moving a little faster to the northeast this morning.
Eta should accelerate even more in that direction later today as it
becomes steered by the faster middle-latitude flow. The new
forecast shows a more rapid forward speed than the previous
advisory, which is related to the ECMWF/UKMET model solutions of
Eta showing some extratropical intensification and staying
coherent, rather than shearing out as a weak low like the GFS. Eta
should merge with a large non-tropical low in 2 to 3 days.


Key Messages:

1. There remains a danger of life-threatening storm surge along
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from the Middle of Longboat Key
to the Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected in the warning area
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast during the next few
hours, and in the warning area on the east coast later today.

3. Localized bands of heavy rainfall will continue to impact
portions of the Florida Peninsula today, resulting in isolated flash
and urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas.
Minor river flooding is expected across portions of west Florida
lasting into the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 29.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 30.6N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 32.6N 78.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 35.2N 73.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 14/0600Z 38.0N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-12 08:56


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 120854
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...ETA ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA...
...STILL PRODUCING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 83.0W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM NNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of the middle of Longboat Key has
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning between Bonita Beach and Middle of Longboat
Key, Florida, including Charlotte Harbor, has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key to Suwannee River Florida, including Tampa
Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key to Suwannee River Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews
Sound Georgia.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This
is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 29.1 North, longitude 83.0 West. Eta is moving
toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). Eta should make
landfall soon, move across northeastern Florida today and emerge
into the western Atlantic this afternoon. The cyclone is expected
to accelerate over the western Atlantic and move parallel to, but
offshore of the Carolinas before heading well east of the
Mid-Atlantic coast by late Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eta is expected to weaken after landfall but
could re-intensify as a non-tropical cyclone on Thursday and Friday
before becoming absorbed by a larger non-tropical cyclone on
Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A National Ocean Service station near Cedar Key
recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of
50 mph (81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches)
based on surface observations from Cedar Key.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Suwannee River to Middle of Longboat Key, FL including Tampa
Bay...2-4 ft

Middle of Longboat Key to Bonita Beach, FL including
Charlotte Harbor...1-3 ft

Bonita Beach to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta will produce an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain
across portions of the Florida Peninsula through today, with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 to 25 inches in
South Florida.

Localized flash and urban flooding will be possible across the
Florida Peninsula today, especially across previously inundated
areas. Minor river flooding is expected across portions of west
Florida lasting into the weekend.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Florida west coast through this morning, and
in the warning area along the east coast starting in the next few
hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the Florida
Gulf Coast today and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-12 08:56


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 120853
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 48
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0900 UTC THU NOV 12 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF THE MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE STORM SURGE WARNING BETWEEN BONITA BEACH AND MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT
KEY FLORIDA INCLUDING CHARLOTTE HARBOR HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING
TAMPA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MIDDLE OF LONGBOAT KEY TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FLORIDA LINE NORTHWARD TO ST. ANDREWS
SOUND GEORGIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 83.0W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 83.0W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.6N 81.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.6N 78.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 35.2N 73.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 38.0N 67.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 150SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.1N 83.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-11-12 05:46


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 120544
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 47A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2020

...ETA CAUSING DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS
FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.6N 83.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Englewood has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood to Suwannee River Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews
Sound Georgia.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This
is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas
at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 83.3 West. Eta is moving
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast and northeast this morning. On the forecast track,
the center of Eta will move near but just offshore of the
west-central coast of Florida during the next few hours, and move
inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula this
morning. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the western
Atlantic late today and early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the
west coast of Florida during the next few hours, followed by more
rapid weakening after landfall occurs later today. Eta is forecast
to dissipate over the western Atlantic Ocean by the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A National Ocean Service station near Clearwater
Beach recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a
gust of 52 mph (84 km/h). A University of South Florida station in
Fred Howard Park near Tarpon Springs recently measured sustained
winds of 41 mph (66 km/h) and a gust of 53 mph (85 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte
Harbor...2-4 ft
Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

West and central Florida, through today: 2 to 4 inches, with
maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches.

North and South Florida, through today: An additional 1 to 2
inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches
in North Florida and 20 to 25 inches in South Florida.

Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida through today, especially across previously inundated
areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected
across portions of West and North Florida through today.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Florida west coast through this morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
Florida Big Bend region today.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight over parts of
western and central Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-12 02:48


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 120246
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

Deep convection intensified over the northern portion of the
circulation of Eta over the past few hours, however the overall
cloud pattern has not become better organized this evening.
Adjusted flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from an Air
Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum
winds are near 55 kt, with the central pressure holding about
steady for now. Since the storm will be moving over progressively
cooler waters, with strong west-southwesterly shear and some
incursions of drier air, gradual weakening is likely up to landfall
tomorrow morning. A more rapid weakening is likely after the center
crosses the coast tomorrow. The dynamical guidance does not
indicate significant restrengthening after Eta emerges into the
Atlantic within 24 hours, although some baroclinic forcing could
allow the system to maintain its intensity for awhile. The
cyclone is likely to be absorbed by a frontal zone in 60-72 hours if
not sooner.

Center fixes indicate that the motion continues to be just a little
to the east of due north, or 010/10 kt. A slight turn toward the
right is expected soon, and over the next couple of days Eta should
move north-northeastward to northeastward, ahead of a broad
mid-level trough, until dissipation. The official track forecast
follows the general trajectory of the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus, but is somewhat slower than the consensus
guidance in deference to the latest GFS prediction.


Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected tonight and early
Thursday along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach
to the Suwanee River, and are possible tonight on Thursday from the
Suwannee River to the Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the
Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue to spread northward across
West and Central Florida through Thursday. Additional flash and
urban flooding will be possible in South Florida through Thursday,
especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and
isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of West
and North Florida through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 28.3N 83.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 29.7N 82.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 13/0000Z 31.8N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 13/1200Z 33.7N 76.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/1200Z 37.0N 68.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-11-12 02:47


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 120245
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 47
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...ETA CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS TO PORTIONS
OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 83.4W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM WNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the
Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews Sound
Georgia.

The Tropical Storm Warning south of Boca Grande Florida has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Boca Grande to Suwannee River Florida
* Flagler/Volusia County Florida line northward to St. Andrews
Sound Georgia.

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas
at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 83.4 West. Eta is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast and northeast Thursday morning. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will move near but just offshore of the
west-central coast of Florida during the next few hours, and move
inland over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on
Thursday morning. Eta is expected to move northeastward into the
western Atlantic late Thursday and early Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast
of Florida tonight, followed by more rapid weakening after landfall
occurs on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. Albert Whitted Airport near St. Petersburg
recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (64 km/h) and a gust of
52 mph (84 km/h). A Weatherflow site in Tampa Bay recently measured
sustained winds of 45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph (94 km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte
Harbor...2-4 ft
Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

West and central Florida, through Thursday: 2 to 4 inches, with
maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches.

North and South Florida, through Thursday: An additional 1 to 2
inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches
in North Florida and 20 to 25 inches in South Florida.

Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated
areas. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected
across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Florida west coast through Thursday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area along the
Florida Big Bend region on Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible overnight over parts of
western and central Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-11-12 02:46


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 120244
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 47
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0300 UTC THU NOV 12 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE
FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FLORIDA LINE NORTHWARD TO ST. ANDREWS SOUND
GEORGIA.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF BOCA GRANDE FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONITA BEACH TO SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOCA GRANDE TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA
* FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY FLORIDA LINE NORTHWARD TO ST. ANDREWS
SOUND GEORGIA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS
AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ETA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 83.4W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 83.4W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 83.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 29.7N 82.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 31.8N 79.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 33.7N 76.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 35.5N 72.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 37.0N 68.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 83.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-11-12 00:00


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 112357
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 46A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 83.4W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM W OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas
at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 27.9
North, longitude 83.4 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 12
mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
overnight, followed by a turn toward the north-northeast and
northeast Thursday morning. On the forecast track, the center of
Eta will move closer to but just offshore of the west-central coast
of Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the
Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move
northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday and early
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast
of Florida tonight, followed by rapid weakening after landfall
occurs on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. During the past couple of hours, a C-MAN
observing station at Venice Beach measured a sustained wind of 47
mph (76 km/h). A Weatherflow site at the Skyway fishing pier
recently reported a sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to
55 mph (89 km/h). Another Weatherflow site at Clam Bayou Nature
Preserve, near St. Petersburg, just reported a gust of 51 mph (82
km/h).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunters is
993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte
Harbor...2-4 ft
Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) through
Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25
inches (765 mm).

West and central Florida, through Thursday: 2 to 4 inches, with
maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches.

North and South Florida, through Thursday: An additional 1 to 2
inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches
in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through
tonight, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated
areas. Flash,urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected
across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Florida west coast this evening through
early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts
of western and central Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-11-11 21:46


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 112143 CCA
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 46...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

Corrected to show dissipated at 72H.

Almost as quickly as Eta regained hurricane status, it then lost it
shortly thereafter. Dry air entrainment eroded most of the
significant convection around the center this afternoon until a
slight resurgence recently developed. However, the overall
convective pattern has changed little with the bulk of the
convection located primarily northeast through southeast of the
center. The last recon pass through Eta showed that the central
pressure had increased to 990 mb. Recent Doppler velocities of
around 70 kt between 5000-6000 ft east of the center supports
surface winds of about 56-58 kt, so the 1800Z intensity of 60 kt
will also be kept for the 21Z advisory intensity.

The initial motion estimate is northward, or 010/10 kt. Eta is
expected to move between north and north-northeastward tonight as
the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge to
the east. The new NHC model guidance remains in excellent
agreement on Eta turning northeastward after 12 hours, with the
cyclone making landfall along the western coast of the northern
Florida peninsula in the region from Cedar Key to Crystal River.
Eta is then expected to accelerate northeastward across northern
Florida as a weakening tropical cyclone, and emerge over the western
Atlantic by late Thursday morning or early afternoon. By 72 hours,
if not sooner, Eta is forecast to merge with a frontal system off of
the southeastern United States. The new official track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of
the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Eta will be moving over progressively cooler waters during the next
12 hours, with SSTs decreasing to less than 25 deg C just before the
cyclone makes landfall along the Florida coast. The cooler waters,
in conjunction with continued dry air entrainment and increasing
westerly vertical wind shear, should result in at least gradual
weakening until landfall occurs, followed by more rapid weakening as
Eta moves over the northern Florida peninsula. Although the
official forecast calls for Eta to be a tropical storm as it nears
the northeast coast of Florida, a Tropical Watch or Warning are not
required at this time since any tropical-storm-force will likely be
occurring over water and not inland or along the coast due to Eta's
poor convective structure that is expected at that time. Eta is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 hours due to even
stronger wind shear, and dissipate by 72 hours due to frontal
interaction.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected this evening and tonight
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to
Suwanee River, and are possible tonight and early Thursday from
Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the
Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue to spread northward across
west and central Florida through Thursday. Additional flash and
urban flooding will be possible in south Florida through Thursday,
especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and
isolated minor river flooding are expected across portions of west
and north Florida through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 27.3N 83.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 28.6N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 30.4N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/0600Z 32.0N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 13/1800Z 33.8N 75.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 36.0N 69.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-11 21:45


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 112142 CCA
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
2100 UTC WED NOV 11 2020

CORRECTED TO SHOW DISSIPATED AT 14/1800Z

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE DRY
TORTUGAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONITA BEACH TO SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS
AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ETA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 83.6W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 83.6W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 83.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.6N 83.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.4N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.0N 78.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.8N 75.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 36.0N 69.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 83.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-11 21:00


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 112057
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

Almost as quickly as Eta regained hurricane status, it then lost it
shortly thereafter. Dry air entrainment eroded most of the
significant convection around the center this afternoon until a
slight resurgence recently developed. However, the overall
convective pattern has changed little with the bulk of the
convection located primarily northeast through southeast of the
center. The last recon pass through Eta showed that the central
pressure had increased to 990 mb. Recent Doppler velocities of
around 70 kt between 5000-6000 ft east of the center supports
surface winds of about 56-58 kt, so the 1800Z intensity of 60 kt
will also be kept for the 21Z advisory intensity.

The initial motion estimate is northward, or 010/10 kt. Eta is
expected to move between north and north-northeastward tonight as
the cyclone rounds the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge to
the east. The new NHC model guidance remains in excellent
agreement on Eta turning northeastward after 12 hours, with the
cyclone making landfall along the western coast of the northern
Florida peninsula in the region from Cedar Key to Crystal River.
Eta is then expected to accelerate northeastward across northern
Florida as a weakening tropical cyclone, and emerge over the western
Atlantic by late Thursday morning or early afternoon. By 72 hours,
if not sooner, Eta is forecast to merge with a frontal system off of
the southeastern United States. The new official track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies close to a blend of
the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Eta will be moving over progressively cooler waters during the next
12 hours, with SSTs decreasing to less than 25 deg C just before the
cyclone makes landfall along the Florida coast. The cooler waters,
in conjunction with continued dry air entrainment and increasing
westerly vertical wind shear, should result in at least gradual
weakening until landfall occurs, followed by more rapid weakening as
Eta moves over the northern Florida peninsula. Although the
official forecast calls for Eta to be a tropical storm as it nears
the northeast coast of Florida, a Tropical Watch or Warning are not
required at this time since any tropical-storm-force will likely be
occurring over water and not inland or along the coast due to Eta's
poor convective structure that is expected at that time. Eta is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 hours due to even
stronger wind shear, and dissipate by 72 hours due to frontal
interaction.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected this evening and tonight
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to
Suwanee River, and are possible tonight and early Thursday from
Suwannee River to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the
Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the progress of Eta.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue to spread northward across
west and central Florida through Thursday. Additional flash and
urban flooding will be possible in south Florida through Thursday,
especially across previously inundated areas. Flash, urban, and
isolated minor river flooding are expected across portions of west
and north Florida through Thursday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 27.3N 83.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 28.6N 83.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 30.4N 81.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 13/0600Z 32.0N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 13/1800Z 33.8N 75.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 36.0N 69.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1800Z...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-11 20:48


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 112045
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 46
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ETA HAS
CHANGED LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 83.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF ST. PETERSBURG FLORIDA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch for portions of the west coast of Florida has
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Dry
Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas
at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by reconnaissance aircraft, Doppler radars, and satellites
near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 83.6 West. Eta is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue overnight, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast and northeast Thursday morning. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will move closer to but just offshore of
the west-central coast of Florida tonight, and move inland over the
northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is
expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late
Thursday and early Friday.

Data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta approaches the west coast
of Florida tonight, followed by rapid weakening after landfall
occurs on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) was reported this
afternoon at Punta Gorda, Florida, while a gust to 55 mph (89 km/h)
was reported St. Petersburg.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte
Harbor...2-4 ft
Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) through
Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25
inches (765 mm).

West and central Florida, through Thursday: 2 to 4 inches, with
maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches.

North and South Florida, through Thursday: An additional 1 to 2
inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches
in North Florida and 20 inches in South Florida.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through
Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida through Thursday, especially across previously inundated
areas. Flash,urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected
across portions of West and North Florida through Thursday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area along the Florida west coast by this afternoon and
evening. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts
of western and central Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-11 20:48


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 112045
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
2100 UTC WED NOV 11 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE DRY
TORTUGAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONITA BEACH TO SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY
FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS
AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ETA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 83.6W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 83.6W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 83.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.6N 83.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 30.4N 81.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 32.0N 78.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 33.8N 75.2W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 36.0N 69.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 83.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-11 18:00


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 111758
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 45A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT ETA HAS
WEAKENED BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS OCCURRING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.7N 83.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM SSW OF TARPON SPRINGS FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas
at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along
portions of the Florida Peninsula today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by reconnaissance aircraft, Doppler radars, and satellites
near latitude 26.7 North, longitude 83.7 West. Eta is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track,
the center of Eta will move closer to but just offshore of the coast
of west-central coast of Florida today and tonight, and move inland
over the northern portion of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta
is expected to move northeastward into the western Atlantic late
Thursday or early Friday.

Data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate
that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Slow weakening is expected as Eta
approaches the west coast of Florida tonight, followed by rapid
weakening after landfall occurs on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km),
mainly northeast through southeast of the center. A wind gust to 40
mph (64 km/h) was recently reported in Venice Beach, Florida, while
a gust to 45 mph (72 km/h) was reported by a buoy just offshore
Venice Beach.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the
reconnaissance aircraft was 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte
Harbor...2-4 ft
Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) today, with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

West and central Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with
maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches.

North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated
maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and
20 inches in South Florida.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on
Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,
urban, and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions
of West and North Florida through Friday.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight
and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Dry Tortugas through early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions will
end across the Dry Tortugas this afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the
Florida west coast by this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are
possible in the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by
Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts
of western and central Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-11 14:54


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 111452
TCDAT4

Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

Eta became much better organized between 0900-1000 UTC this morning,
including the formation of a well-defined, closed circular eye about
20-25 nmi wide. However, since then the satellite and radar
signature have become more ragged as dry air has entrained into the
western semicircle of the cyclone and has also penetrated into the
inner-core region, resulting in a significant degradation of the
convection in that portion of Eta's circulation. A couple of hours
ago, a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft penetrated the remnant eye
feature and measured a central pressure of 984-983 mb, and also
measured 850-mb maximum flight-level winds of 83-85 kt east of the
center just outside of a deep convective band. WSR-88D Doppler
radar data from Tampa Bay (KTBW) indicated a long fetch of Doppler
velocities of 80-88 kt at 13,500 ft directly above and east of the
aircraft report, and this was within a band of strong convection
characterized by radar reflectivities of 45-49 dBZ. Based on the
combination of the wind data and the relatively low central
pressure, Eta was upgraded to hurricane status at 1200 UTC.

The initial motion estimate is north-northeastward, or 015/09 kt.
The latest NHC model guidance is excellent agreement on Eta moving
north-northeastward for the next 24 hours around the the western
periphery of a deep-layer subtropical ridge that extends westward
across the western Atlantic to just off the Florida east coast.
Thereafter, the cyclone will move north of the ridge axis and come
under the influence of southwesterly to westerly mid- to upper-level
flow associated with an approaching cold front, which should result
in a faster northeastward motion. By 72 hours, if not sooner, Eta is
forecast to merge with the aforementioned frontal system off of the
southeastern United States. The new official track forecast is
similar to the previous advisory track, and lies just a tad east or
to the right of the consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

It is quite possible that Eta has peaked in intensity based on the
rapid erosion of the convective pattern and an eye feature no longer
evident in radar or passive microwave satellite imagery. However,
there still remains a band of strong convection in the northeastern
quadrant that contains Doppler radar velocity values of 80-88 kt
between 6000-9000 ft, which corresponds to equivalent surface winds
of at least 65 kt. As long as that feature persists, hurricane-force
winds are possible along immediate coastal areas within the
hurricane watch area. The latest GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity
guidance shows significantly drier air wrapping into the center by
24 hours, along with the vertical wind shear increasing to more than
20 kt from the west at that time. That combination of unfavorable
environmental parameters is expected to lead to gradual weakening
until landfall occurs in about 24 hours, followed by rapid weakening
after landfall. Eta is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low by
60 hours due to even stronger wind shear, and dissipate by 96 hours
due to frontal interaction.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along portions
of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwannee River,
including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the west
coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown this evening
and early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected later
today along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to
Suwanee River, and are possible early Thursday from Suwannee River
to Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast
should monitor the progress of Eta.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and
south Florida and spread northward across portions of west and north
Florida today through Friday. Additional flash and urban flooding
will be possible in South Florida today, especially across
previously inundated areas, and across portions of west and central
Florida today through Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 26.2N 83.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 27.5N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 28.9N 82.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR FLORIDA COAST
36H 13/0000Z 30.5N 81.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 13/1200Z 31.6N 79.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 32.5N 76.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1200Z 34.1N 73.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-11 14:52


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 111449
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 45
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...HEAVY SQUALLS WITH TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ONSHORE
THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA...
...STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 83.7W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM WSW OF PORT CHARLOTTE FLORIDA
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the Florida west coast
from Suwannee River to Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor.

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for Cuba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Suwanee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Steinhatchee River to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in
this case within 24 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.
This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these
areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property
from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in this case within 24 hours. For a depiction of areas
at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge
Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along
portions of the Florida Peninsula today.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 83.7 West. Eta is moving toward
the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion
is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast track,
the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest
coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida
tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the Florida
peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move northeastward into
the western Atlantic late Thursday or early Friday.

Data from NOAA Doppler weather radars indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta
could be near hurricane strength tonight as it approaches the west
coast of Florida, with rapid weakening expected after landfall on
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km), mainly
northeast of the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 115 miles (185 km). A sustained wind of 33 mph (53
km/h) and a gust to 42 mph (68 km/h) were recently measured by a
Weatherflow observing station on Sanibel Island. Across the lower
Florida Keys, a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 49
mph (91 km/h) were recently reported at Sand Key.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River to Boca Grande, FL including Tampa Bay...3-5 ft
Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL including Charlotte
Harbor...2-4 ft
Steinhatchee River to Anclote River...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach to Flamingo...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) today, with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

West and central Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with
maximum storm total accumulations of 6 inches.

North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated
maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and
20 inches in South Florida.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on
Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban,
and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of
West and North Florida through Friday.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area tonight
and early Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Dry Tortugas through early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west
coast by this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in
the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over parts
of western and central Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-11 14:51


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 111448
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 45
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
1500 UTC WED NOV 11 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO BONITA BEACH...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY AND
CHARLOTTE HARBOR.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR CUBA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONITA BEACH TO SUWANEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO YANKEETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DRY TORTUGAS
* BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* STEINHATCHEE RIVER TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...IN
THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.
THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE
AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS
CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM
LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS
AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ETA. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 83.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 83.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 83.8W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 27.5N 83.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.9N 82.7W...NEAR FLORIDA COAST
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 30.5N 81.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 31.6N 79.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 32.5N 76.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 34.1N 73.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 83.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 11/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-11 12:42


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 111239
TCUAT4

Hurricane Eta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
735 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...ETA BECOMES A HURRICANE AGAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Doppler radar data
indicate that Eta has re-strengthened into a hurricane offshore the
southwestern coast of Florida, with maximum sustained winds of 75
mph (120 km/h), with higher gusts.


SUMMARY OF 735 AM EST...1235 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 83.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-11 11:45


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 111143
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 44A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...NOAA RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND DOPPLER RADARS INDICATE ETA
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS APPROACHING SOUTHWEST FLORIDA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 83.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along
portions of the Florida Peninsula today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by a NOAA reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler weather
radars near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 83.8 West. Eta is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the
southwest coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of
Florida tonight, and move inland over the northern portion of the
Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move
northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early
Friday.

Reports from the aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is expected to be
near or at hurricane strength tonight as it approaches the west
coast of Florida, with rapid weakening expected after landfall on
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center. A University of South Florida COMPS buoy just
southeast of Eta's center recently measured a sustained wind of 49
mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 65 mph 104 (km/h). Doppler radars
indicate that tropical-storm-force winds are located just offshore
the southwestern coast of Florida. Across the lower Florida Keys, a
sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 56 mph (90 km/h)
were recently reported at Sand Key.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft was 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) on
Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25
inches (765 mm).

West Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm
total accumulations of 6 inches.

North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated
maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and
20 inches in South Florida.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on
Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban,
and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of
West and North Florida through Friday.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area by early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by this
afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch area
along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba for the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-11 09:01


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 110859
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

Eta has become better organized over the past few hours, with a
better-defined eye feature on the Key West radar. Satellite
pictures also show a more symmetric presentation and a large
cluster of deep convection near the center. Radar data has shown
increasing wind speeds in the mid-levels, which supports
conservatively raising the initial wind speed to 60 kt. The
current position is southwest of the eye feature on radar, assuming
some shear remains, but a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to be in the storm in a few hours to acquire better data
on both the initial position and intensity.

It appears that the center of Eta has re-formed to the north-
northeast tonight, so an initial motion is hard to determine,
but is estimated to be northward at about 10 kt. Remarkably, model
guidance has become well clustered just east of the previous
forecast track as it seems apparent that Eta will now recurve
around the ridge toward the Florida Big Bend region and out into
the western Atlantic Ocean. The biggest change is that the models
are faster than before, and the official forecast follows that
lead, along with a small eastward forecast adjustment, near or just
east of the model consensus.

Further strengthening is possible today while the shear remains
low-to-moderate. However, all of the models do show increasing
shear by tonight, and the NHC forecast continues to call for
weakening of Eta as it approaches the west coast of Florida.
However, it would take only a small forecast error to allow Eta to
come ashore as a hurricane, and hence a Hurricane Watch has been
issued this morning. Rapid weakening is anticipated once Eta makes
landfall, and strong shear should prevent any regeneration over the
western Atlantic Ocean. The new forecast is a little higher than
the previous advisory, mostly due to current trends, and is closer
to the more bullish HMON and HWRF models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible early Thursday along
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to
Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Hurricane-force winds are possible along portions of the west
coast of Florida from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown by early
Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected by late Wednesday
along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to
Suwanee River, and are possible Thursday from Suwannee River to
Aucilla River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast
should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches and
warnings may be needed today.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and
South Florida and spread northward across portions of West and North
Florida Wednesday through Friday. Additional flash and urban
flooding will be possible in South Florida on Wednesday, especially
across previously inundated areas, and across portions of West
Florida through Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 25.0N 84.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 27.9N 83.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 29.2N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 13/0600Z 30.2N 81.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 30.9N 79.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-11 08:59


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 110857
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
AS ETA INTENSIFIES FURTHER...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 84.1W
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM SW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the west coast of Florida
from Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Anna Maria Island to Yankeetown

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 24
hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along
portions of the Florida Peninsula today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 84.1 West. Eta is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A motion toward the
north-northeast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track
the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest
coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida
Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion of the
Florida peninsula on Thursday. Eta is expected to move
northeastward into the western Atlantic late Thursday or early
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eta is expected to be near or at hurricane
strength tonight as it approaches the west coast of Florida, with
rapid weakening expected after landfall on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall totals:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) on
Wednesday, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25
inches (765 mm).

West Florida: through Friday, 2 to 4 inches, with maximum storm
total accumulations of 6 inches.

North and South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches, with isolated
maximum storm total accumulations of 4 inches in North Florida and
20 inches in South Florida.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba on
Wednesday, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida, especially across previously inundated areas. Flash,urban,
and isolated minor river flooding is expected across portions of
West and North Florida through Friday.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch area by early
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by
Wednesday afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in
the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba for the next few hours.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-11 08:58


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 110855
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0900 UTC WED NOV 11 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO YANKEETOWN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANNA MARIA ISLAND TO YANKEETOWN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DRY TORTUGAS
* BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY
AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ETA. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.1W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 84.1W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 84.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 27.9N 83.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 29.2N 82.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.2N 81.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.9N 79.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.0N 78.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 84.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 11/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-11-11 05:41


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 110539
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 43A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...ETA'S RAIN BANDS MOVING OVER THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND
APPROACHING SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 84.4W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along
portions of the Florida Gulf coast today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 84.4 West. Eta is moving
toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the
north-northeast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track
the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest
coast of Florida today, approach the west-central coast of Florida
Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion of the
Florida peninsula on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast today, and Eta
could be near hurricane strength late this morning. Gradual
weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night or early Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. Buoy 42026 from the University of South Florida
located about 75 miles northeast of the center of Eta recently
reported sustained winds of 36 mph (57 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph
(86 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on earlier NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft data is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
overnight:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

South Florida: Isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 15 to 20
inches.

Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through
Friday:

West Florida into the eastern Florida Panhandle and portions of
North Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through
tonight, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida tonight, especially across previously inundated areas, and
eventually across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida
Panhandle, and north Florida through Friday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
through this morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west coast by late
Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the watch
area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba overnight.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-11 02:57


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 110254
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

Eta has been maintaining a large cluster of deep convection over the
northeastern portion of its circulation this evening. NWS Doppler
radar data from Key West is showing a well-defined mid-level
circulation in that area, but NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data so
far still indicates that the low-level center is located near the
southwestern portion of the convective mass. However, it is
possible that the center will re-form closer to the mid-level
center overnight. The plane has measured peak 850-mb flight-level
winds of 67 kt, and SFMR winds of 52 kt. Based on these data the
initial intensity has been raised to 55 kt.

Eta's initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 015/8 kt. There has
once again been a significant eastward shift in the 18Z dynamical
model guidance, with the GFS, HWRF, and UKMET models all showing a
faster north-northeastward motion toward the Florida west coast. As
a result, the NHC forecast has again been shifted eastward and lies
near the TVCA multi-model consensus through 36 h. After that time,
the NHC track is slower and west of the bulk of the consensus aids
as the ECMWF still shows Eta weakening and lingering near the
Florida Big Bend. While the new track has been shifted
significantly eastward after 36 h or so, some continuity with the
previous forecast is maintained with a slower northward motion
between the two model camps. While there is increasing confidence in
the faster north-northeastward motion in the short-term, there is
still considerable uncertainty by 48 hours and beyond, and further
adjustments to the track forecast could be required overnight.

Some additional strengthening is likely overnight and Wednesday
while Eta remains over warm water and within an area of
low-to-moderate vertical wind shear. If the center re-forms closer
to the deep convection, Eta could re-gain hurricane status within
the next 12-24 hours. After that time, increasing southwesterly
shear and cooler SSTs are likely to result in some weakening. The
updated NHC intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS and HCCA model
guidance.

Given the eastward shift in the track and the expected faster motion
of Eta, a Tropical Storm Warning and Storm Surge Watch are being
issued for a portion of the west coast of Florida. Additional
warnings could be required early Wednesday.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is possible Thursday along portions
of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River,
including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Residents in this area
should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected by late Wednesday along
portions of the Florida Gulf Coast from Bonita Beach to Suwanee
River, and are possible Thursday from Suwannee River to Aucilla
River. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast should
monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches and warnings may
be needed overnight.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and
south Florida through tonight, and spread northward across portions
of west Florida, the eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida
Wednesday through Friday. Additional flash and urban flooding is
possible in south Florida tonight, especially across previously
inundated areas, and eventually across portions of west Florida, the
eastern Florida Panhandle, and north Florida Wednesday through
Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 23.8N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 25.0N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 26.5N 84.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 27.7N 83.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 28.8N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 29.7N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 14/0000Z 30.3N 82.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 15/0000Z 30.8N 82.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-11 02:55


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 110253
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 10 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT ETA IS A LITTLE
STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND STORM SURGE WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 84.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Florida west coast
from Bonita Beach to the Suwannee River.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida west coast from
Bonita Beach to the Steinhatchee River, including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf coast
from north of the Suwannee River to the Aucilla River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas
* Bonita Beach to Suwannee River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach to Steinhatchee River Florida, including Tampa Bay
and Charlotte Harbor

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* North of the Suwannee River to Aucilla River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta. Additional warnings may be required along
portions of the Florida Gulf coast early Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 84.5 West. Eta is moving
toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the
north-northeast is forecast through Thursday. On the forecast track
the center of Eta will move closer to but offshore of the southwest
coast of Florida on Wednesday, approach the west-central coast of
Florida Wednesday night, and move inland over the northern portion
of the Florida peninsula on Thursday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast through Wednesday,
and Eta could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday morning.
Gradual weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night or early
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reconnaissance
aircraft data is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Steinhatchee River to Bonita Beach, FL including Tampa Bay and
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Flamingo, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore flow, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall through
tonight:

Western Cuba: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

South Florida: Isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 15 to 20
inches.

Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through
Friday:

West Florida into the eastern Florida Panhandle and portions of
North Florida: 1 to 3 inches, with isolated totals of 5 inches.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba through
tonight, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida tonight, especially across previously inundated areas, and
eventually across portions of west Florida, the eastern Florida
Panhandle, and north Florida Wednesday through Friday.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
overnight and early Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Florida west
coast by late Wednesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in
the watch area along the Florida Big Bend region by Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba tonight.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, southern and western Florida, and the Florida Keys
during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-11 02:55


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 110253
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0300 UTC WED NOV 11 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
FROM BONITA BEACH TO THE SUWANNEE RIVER.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM
BONITA BEACH TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER...INCLUDING TAMPA BAY AND
CHARLOTTE HARBOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA GULF COAST
FROM NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO THE AUCILLA RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DRY TORTUGAS
* BONITA BEACH TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONITA BEACH TO STEINHATCHEE RIVER FLORIDA...INCLUDING TAMPA
BAY AND CHARLOTTE HARBOR

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* NORTH OF THE SUWANNEE RIVER TO AUCILLA RIVER FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ETA. ADDITIONAL WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 84.5W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 84.5W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 84.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.0N 84.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.7N 83.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.8N 83.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.7N 82.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.3N 82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 30.8N 82.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 84.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 11/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-11-10 23:55


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 102352
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 42A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
600 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ETA...
...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 84.7W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 010 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Suwannee River Florida
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta. Additional watches or warnings may be
required along portions of the Florida Gulf coast later tonight
or Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 23.5 North,
longitude 84.7 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11
km/h). A motion toward the north or north-northeast is forecast
through Wednesday night, followed by a turn toward the northeast on
Thursday. On the forecast track the center of Eta will move parallel
to but offshore of the Florida west coast on Wednesday night and
Thursday and move near or over Apalachee Bay Thursday night and
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast through Thursday morning, and
Eta could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday night or Thursday
morning. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Thursday afternoon
or evening.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
today and tonight:

Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

South Florida: Isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 15 to
20 inches.

Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through
Thursday:

Portions of West Florida and the Sun Coast, including the Tampa Bay
area: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated totals of 4 inches.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and
urban flooding will be possible in South Florida, especially across
previously inundated areas, and eventually along portions of West
Florida and the Sun Coast. Flash and urban flooding will also be
possible for western Cuba.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
overnight and early Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area along the Florida west coast by Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern and western
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Papin

>

2020-11-10 20:54


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 102052
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

Eta's convective structure has changed little since the previous
advisory. A CDO-like feature with cloud tops colder than -70C has
persisted, with some overshooting tops of -80C to -85C located east
and southeast of the center. Recent passive microwave satellite
data indicates that Eta is still sheared from the northwest, with
an intermittent mid-level eye feature showing up. Satellite
classifications have essentially remained unchanged, with SAB
reporting 45-55 kt and TAFB reporting 55 kt. The initial intensity
remains at 50 kt based on a blend of these satellite
classifications and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimates of 45-48 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now northward, or 360/06 kt. The
biggest surprise is the large eastward shift in all of the NHC model
guidance, which was possibly due at least in part to all of the
dropsondes that the NOAA G-IV jet aircraft dropped around Eta
earlier this morning, All of the guidance is now in good agreement
on a broad, deep-layer trough moving eastward across the
south-central and southeastern United States, which will erode the
subtropical ridge to the north of Eta that has been impeding
Eta's poleward progress he past couple of days. This generally
northward to northeastward steering pattern is expected to persist
through the entire 120-h forecast period, with only slight shifts
east or west of he current forecast track due to how vertically deep
Eta remains when it reaches the northeastern Gulf of Mexico and
Apalachee Bay in a few days. The current forecast track maintains
Eta as at least a moderate tropical cyclone through the period, with
only a slight bend back toward the northwest when the system is
expected to interact with an approaching frontal system. The new NHC
track forecast has been shifted about 150 n mi east of the previous
advisory track at 96 and 120 hours, and further eastward shifts in
the track may be required, closer to the consensus models TCVA/TVCN
and NOAA-HCCA.

Eta is forecast to remain in a low-to-moderate vertical wind shear
environment and over SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the next 36 hours
or so. Intermittent entrainment of dry mid-level air should prevent
any rapid strengthening from occurring, but Eta could still become a
hurricane between in 24 to 36 h before more significant shear begins
to affect the cyclone. By day 3 and beyond, increasing northwesterly
vertical wind shear combined with cooler SSTs should cause Eta to
weaken. The new intensity forecast is essentially the same as the
previous advisory, and is a little below the consensus models IVCN,
HCCA, and FSSE, all of which make Eta a hurricane again by 36 hours.

Due to the expected northwesterly shear after 36 hours, the 34-kt
wind radii were expanded in the eastern semicircle, which is the
side of the cyclone where most of the deep convection and associated
stronger winds will be located. Given this and the eastward
adjustment to the track forecast, a Tropical Storm Watch has been
issued for portions of the Florida west coast, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect for the Dry Tortugas.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are possible along portions of the
Florida Gulf Coast by Thursday afternoon, and a Tropical Storm Watch
has been issued. Interests elsewhere along the Florida Gulf Coast
should monitor the progress of Eta, as additional watches may be
needed tonight.

2. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and
South Florida today and tonight, then potentially spread up the west
coast of the Florida Peninsula Wednesday through Thursday.
Additional flash and urban flooding will be possible in South
Florida, especially across previously inundated areas, and
eventually along portions of West Florida and the Sun Coast. Flash
and urban flooding will also be possible for western Cuba.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 23.2N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 24.1N 84.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 25.6N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 26.9N 84.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 27.9N 84.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 28.7N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 29.1N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 29.7N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 30.7N 84.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-10 20:52


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 102050
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS AND A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 85.1W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of
Florida from Englewood northward to Suwannee River.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to Suwannee River Florida
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by satellite and Cuban radar data near latitude 23.2 North,
longitude 85.1 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11
km/h). A motion toward the north or north-northeast is forecast
through Wednesday night, followed by a turn toward the northeast on
Thursday. On the forecast track the center of Eta will move parallel
to but offshore of the Florida west coast on Thursday and move near
or over Apalachee Bay Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast through Thursday morning, and Eta
could be near hurricane strength by Wednesday night or Thursday
morning. Gradual weakening is expected to begin Thursday afternoon
or evening.

Satellite-derived wind data indicate that tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
today and tonight:

Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

South Florida: Isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches, with isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 15 to
20 inches.

Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through
Thursday:

Portions of West Florida and the Sun Coast, including the Tampa Bay
area: 1 to 2 inches, with isolated totals of 4 inches.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and
urban flooding will be possible in South Florida, especially across
previously inundated areas, and eventually along portions of West
Florida and the Sun Coast. Flash and urban flooding will also be
possible for western Cuba.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
overnight and early Wednesday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba tonight.

Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area along the Florida west coast by Thursday afternoon.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern and western
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-10 20:51


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 102049
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
2100 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM ENGLEWOOD NORTHWARD TO SUWANNEE RIVER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ENGLEWOOD TO SUWANNEE RIVER FLORIDA
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF ETA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 85.1W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 85.1W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 85.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.1N 84.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.6N 84.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.9N 84.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.9N 84.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.7N 84.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.1N 84.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 29.7N 84.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 30.7N 84.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 85.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 11/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-10 18:09


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 101807
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 41A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1200 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

...ETA CONTINUES TO MEANDER JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...
...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 85.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 85.1 West. Eta has been
nearly stationary, and little motion is expected through this
afternoon. A slow northward motion is forecast to begin by this
evening and continue through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two,
followed by weakening likely starting on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
today and tonight:

Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

South Florida: isolated additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 2
inches (25 to 50 mm), with isolated maximum storm total
accumulations of 20 inches (510 mm).

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and
urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will
be possible in South Florida today and tonight.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area in Cuba today.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern and western
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-10 14:57


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 101455
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

A significant increase in deep convection has occurred since the
previous advisory this morning, including a CDO-like feature with
cloud tops of -85C to -87C very near the low-level center. However,
recent passive microwave satellite images indicate that the center
is displaced to the northwest of the coldest cloud tops due to
modest northwesterly mid- and upper-level vertical wind shear. The
initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt, which is based on an
average of Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of T3.0/45 kt from
TAFB and T3.5/55 kt from SAB.

Although the initial motion estimate is 360/02 kt, Eta has
essentially been stationary for the past 9 hours or so. Radar data
from Casablanca, Cuba, and satellite fixes suggest that Eta has been
making a small cyclonic/counter-clockwise loop within the larger
gyre in which the small center is embedded. Until the gyre breaks
down or moves northward, there will be little poleward motion by Eta
today. By tonight, however, the global and regional models are in
good agreement on a broad mid-tropospheric trough moving eastward
across the central and eastern United States, which is expected to
erode a subtropical ridge to the north of the Eta, allowing both the
larger gyre and Eta to move slowly northward. This steering pattern
is expected to continue through about 72 hours. Thereafter, the
model guidance diverges significantly between motions ranging from
westward (GFS/GFS-ensemble) to northward (ECMWF) to northeastward
(COAMPS-TC). The 96-120 hour motions are directly related to the
strength of the cyclone, with a much weaker Eta forecast to move
westward and a stronger hurricane solution moving northeastward.
The latter scenario seems unlikely given that the vertical shear is
forecast to increase from the northwest and west at more than 25 kt,
which acts to weaken Eta and also impart a slight eastward tug on
the system. As a result, the official forecast track calls for Eta
to basically move slowly northward through the 120-h forecast
period and gradually weaken into a shallow cyclone that drifts
northward. The new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
advisory track, and lies close to a blend of the consensus models
TVCA, NOAA-HCCA, and the Florida Superensemble (FSSE).

Eta is expected to remain in a low-to-moderate vertical wind shear
environment and over warm SSTs of 27-28 deg C for the next couple of
days. Although the surrounding environment is expected to be
somewhat dry, the other two favorable environmental factors should
allow for some strengthening into Thursday, Thereafter, increasing
shear from the northwest and west, along with drier mid-level air
and cooler SSTs are likely to cause Eta to weaken. The rate of this
weakening remains uncertain, and depends heavily on how much Eta
re-intensifies over the next couple of days. The new intensity
forecast is essentially the same as the previous advisory, and is a
little below the consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE, all of which
make Eta a hurricane again by 36 hours.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and
South Florida today and tonight. Additional flash and urban
flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be
possible in South Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be
possible for western Cuba.

2. Eta could approach the northeastern or north-central U.S. Gulf
Coast later this week as a tropical storm, and possibly bring
impacts from rain, wind, and storm surge. Interests in this area
should continue to monitor the progress of Eta and updates to the
forecast this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 22.7N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 23.1N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 24.0N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 25.0N 85.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 25.9N 85.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 26.6N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 27.2N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 28.6N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 30.1N 86.4W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-10 14:55


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 101452
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

...ETA MEANDERING JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...
...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 85.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area today.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 85.3 West. Eta has been
nearly stationary this morning, and little motion is expected today.
A slow northward motion is forecast to begin by this evening and
continue through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed
by weakening likely starting on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
today and tonight:

Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 inches (510 mm).

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and
urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will
be possible in South Florida today and tonight.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area in Cuba today.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern and western
Florida, and the Florida Keys during the next day or so. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-10 14:54


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 101451
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
1500 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ETA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 85.3W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 85.3W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 85.3W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.1N 85.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 85.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.0N 85.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.9N 85.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.6N 85.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 27.2N 85.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 28.6N 86.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 30.1N 86.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 85.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-10 11:48


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 101146
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
600 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

...ETA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE JUST OFF THE COAST OF WESTERN CUBA...
...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.6N 85.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 85.3 West. Eta has been
drifting southward this morning, but it is expected to become
stationary again later today. A slow northward motion is forecast to
begin tonight and continue through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or two, followed by weakening likely starting on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
today and tonight:

Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 inches (510 mm).

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and
urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will
be possible in South Florida today and tonight.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area in Cuba today.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Latto

>

2020-11-10 08:41


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 100839
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

There hasn't been a lot of change to the cloud pattern of Eta
overnight, with the center apparently located on the northwestern
side of a small central dense overcast. Scatterometer data from
earlier indicated 35-40 kt winds, and with the typical undersampling
from that instrument, along with consensus 45-kt estimates from
TAFB/SAB, so Eta's initial wind speed is kept at 45 kt. A NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft should be in the storm this morning.

Eta is forecast to be in a low-to-moderate shear environment over
warm SSTs for the next couple of days. Gradual strengthening is
expected through early Thursday, with the main restrictive factor
being nearby dry air. After that time, increasing shear and
drier mid-level air are likely to cause Eta to weaken. The rate
of this weakening is pretty uncertain, and a lot depends on how
much Eta can re-intensify over the next couple of days. The new
forecast is similar to the previous one, which is quite close to
the consensus guidance.

The storm has basically become stationary overnight. Eta should
drift to north today due to steering flow changes with a nearby
upper-level low losing influence while ridging east of Florida
builds southward. A slow northward track is then anticipated for a
couple of days over the east-central Gulf of Mexico in this flow
pattern. Beyond that time, model guidance is in rather poor
agreement, ranging from a stronger system moving faster to the
northeast due to broad troughing over the south-central United
States, to a weaker tropical cyclone getting caught under a narrow
ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and turning west-southwestward. Since
the new forecast expects Eta to be weakening, the NHC forecast will
be west of the consensus and west of the previous track. I have
little confidence in the long-range track forecast due to its
seeming dependence on the intensity, and the wide spread in the
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across western Cuba and
South Florida today and tonight. Additional flash and urban
flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be
possible in South Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be
possible for western Cuba.

2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a
tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and
storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor
the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 22.9N 85.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 23.1N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 24.0N 85.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 25.0N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 26.0N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 26.8N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 27.3N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 28.8N 86.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-10 08:40


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 100838
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

...ETA LINGERING JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...
...RISK OF FLOODING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND WESTERN CUBA CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 85.5W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 85.5 West. Eta is
stationary, and little overall motion is forecast today, with a
slow northward motion is expected tonight through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, followed
by weakening likely starting on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
today and tonight:

Western Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (765 mm).

South Florida: an additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm)), with
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 20 inches (510 mm).

Flash and river flooding will be possible in western Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and
urban flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will
be possible in South Florida today and tonight.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area in Cuba today.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-10 08:39


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 100837
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0900 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ETA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 85.5W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 85.5W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 85.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.1N 85.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.0N 85.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.0N 85.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.0N 85.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.8N 85.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 27.3N 85.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 28.8N 86.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 30.0N 87.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 85.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-11-10 05:34


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 100532
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1200 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2020

...ETA MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD...
...STILL COULD PRODUCE MORE FLOODING OVER PARTS OF SOUTH FLORIDA
AND CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 85.4W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 85.4 West. Eta is moving
toward the southwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion with a
reduction in forward speed is expected tonight. Little overall
motion is forecast today, and a slow northward motion is expected
Tuesday night through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening will be possible later today. Gradual
weakening is expected to begin by late Wednesday and then continue
through the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Saturday morning:

The Bahamas: An additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with
isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with
landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban
flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be
possible in South Florida tonight. Flash and urban flooding will
also be possible for the Bahamas and the remainder of southern and
eastern Florida over the next several days.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm
Watch area in Cuba today.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-10 02:55


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 100253
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2020

Eta's convective structure appears to be gradually becoming better
organized this evening. The center is located near the northern edge
of a band that wraps around the southeastern and southern portions
of the circulation. Recent subjective Dvorak data T-numbers were
3.0, which still support an initial intensity of 45 kt. With Eta's
structure gradually improving and a forecast for the cyclone to
remain over SSTs of around 28C and in generally low vertical wind
shear conditions, some re-strengthening is likely during the next
24-36 hours. Although the NHC intensity forecast shows Eta remaining
just below hurricane strength, there is a possibility that the storm
will briefly regain hurricane status over the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico within the next day or so. By 48 hours, when the cyclone
moves over the east-central Gulf of Mexico, increasing vertical wind
shear and dry mid-level air are likely to result in weakening, and
like the previous forecast, the new NHC forecast indicates that Eta
could weaken to a tropical depression by the end of the period. Some
of the global model guidance suggests that Eta could weaken even
faster than indicated below after 72 hours.

Recent satellite fixes indicate that Eta is moving southwestward but
a little slower than before at around 8 kt. Eta should slow its
forward progress overnight and then meander over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday as steering current collapse. In 36-48
hours, Eta should begin moving northward between a mid-level ridge
over the western Atlantic and a broad trough over the central United
States. After 72 hours, the spread in the guidance increases when
Eta is expected to be weaker and be steered by the low-level flow.
Most of the guidance shows a northwestward to northward motion at
that time period but have varying forward speed. The NHC track shows
a slow north-northwest motion late in the period to account for
these differences. There is lower than normal confidence in the
latter portion of the track forecast given the large spread in the
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central
Florida. Additional flash and urban flooding, especially across
previously inundated areas, will be possible in South Florida
tonight. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba,
the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida over the next
several days.

2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a
tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and
storm surge. Interests in this area should continue to monitor
the progress of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 23.2N 85.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 22.8N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 23.4N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 24.6N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 25.8N 85.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 26.6N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 27.0N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 29.0N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-10 02:55


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 100253
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Mon Nov 09 2020

...ETA EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN AS IT MEANDERS OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 85.2W
ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NNW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 85.2 West. Eta is moving
toward the southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion with
a reduction in forward speed is expected tonight. Little overall
motion is forecast on Tuesday and a slow northward motion is
expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta will remain over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
tonight through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening will be possible tonight and Tuesday. Gradual
weakening is expected to begin by late Wednesday and then continue
through the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Saturday morning:

The Bahamas: An additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with
isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida.

Flash and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with
landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash and urban
flooding, especially across previously inundated areas, will be
possible in South Florida tonight. Flash and urban flooding will
also be possible for the Bahamas and the remainder of southern and
eastern Florida over the next several days.

WIND: Gusty conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south
and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-10 02:54


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 100252
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0300 UTC TUE NOV 10 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ETA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 85.2W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 225 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 85.2W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 85.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.8N 85.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 23.4N 85.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.6N 85.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 25.8N 85.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.6N 85.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.0N 85.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 27.7N 85.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 29.0N 86.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 85.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-11-09 23:53


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 092351
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 PM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

...ETA SLOWING DOWN AS IT MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 85.0W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 23.5 North, longitude 85.0 West. Eta is moving
toward the southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with
some reduction in forward speed is expected to continue through
tonight. Little overall motion is forecast on Tuesday and a slow
northward motion is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will remain over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening will be possible tonight and Tuesday.
Gradual weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday and then
continue through the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Saturday morning:

The Bahamas: An additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with
isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm)), with isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida.

Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash
flooding is possible across inundated urban areas of southeast
Florida today. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
the Bahamas and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over
the next several days.

WIND: Gusty conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south
and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-09 20:53


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 092051
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

Eta's convective pattern now consists of mainly a compact ring of
inner-core convection with cloud tops of -60C to -70C. The earlier
main outer convective band located in the northeast quadrant has
weakened considerably, and the inflow into that feature is now being
shunted westward into Eta's inner-core region. Visible and water
vapor satellite images also indicate that weak anticyclonic cirrus
outflow has recently developed over the inner core. The last recon
pass through Eta a few hours ago showed a pressure rise to 997 mb
that was followed by a pressure decrease to 995 mb on the last pass.
Both flight-level and SFMR-derived surface winds had also decreased
and only supported around 45 kt, which is the initial intensity used
for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is southwestward, or 235/14 kt. Mid- and
upper-level water vapor images show a cut-off low located over the
extreme northwestern Caribbean Sea near the Isle of Youth. This
feature, in conjunction with a deep-layer ridge extending across
Florida and the Gulf of Mexico, is expected to produce northeasterly
flow that will keep Eta moving southwestward for the next 24-36
hours. However, the cyclone will gradually slow down during that
time as a broad deep-layer trough moving across the central and
south-central U.S. weakens the ridge over the Gulf, causing Eta to
stall or make a small loop around 36 hours. By 48-60 hours and
beyond, the aforementioned trough is forecast to lift out to the
northeast, allowing at least some of the Gulf ridge to build back
in, slowing down Eta's poleward progress or even possibly trapping
the cyclone over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The global and
regional models are in very good agreement on the developing track
scenario through about 72 hours, and then diverge significantly
thereafter, with the bulk of the guidance taking a much weaker Eta
northwestward or northward into strong shear conditions. However,
the Navy COAMPS-TC model strengthens Eta to near major hurricane
status and takes the cyclone northeastward, while the HMON model
also intensifies the cyclone into a major hurricane, but leaves it
trapped over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The latter two
scenarios are considered to be outliers due to the abundance of very
dry air surrounding Eta and an expected increase in the deep-layer
shear to more than 25 kt by 96 and 120 hours. The new official
forecast track is to the left or west of the previous advisory
track, but not as far west as the consensus models, which take a
significantly weaker and more shallow cyclone toward the
north-central Gulf coast.

Some re-strengthening appears more likely now that Eta has shed a
lot of outer convective baggage and has become more compact, and
has developed a donut ring of inner-core convection and some modest
upper-level outflow in all quadrants. Eta's best opportunity for
intensification should come during the next 36 hours when the
cyclone will be moving over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico
Loop Current and the deep-layer vertical wind shear gradually
decreases to less than 10 kt. Although occasional intrusions of very
dry air will prevent rapid intensification from occurring, some
gradual strengthening seems to be in order given the other favorable
environmental conditions and the cyclone's new smaller size. By 48
hours and beyond, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air
entrainment should cause steady weakening of the cyclone through end
of the forecast period. However, if Eta takes a more northwestward
track like some of the NHC model guidance is indicating, then the
cyclone will get sheared more and weaken sooner than indicated in
the official forecast. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to
the previous advisory, and but is lower than intensity consensus
models IVCN and HCCA, which re-strengthen Eta to a 65-70 kt
hurricane.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into central
Florida. Additional flash flooding is possible across inundated
urban areas of southeast Florida today. Flash and urban flooding
will also be possible for Cuba, the Bahamas and the remainder of
southern Florida over the next several days.

2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a
tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and
storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of
Eta and updates to the forecast this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 23.7N 84.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 23.2N 85.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 23.4N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 24.3N 85.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 25.6N 85.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 26.5N 85.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 27.2N 85.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 28.0N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 28.6N 85.6W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-09 20:51


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 092049
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

...ETA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN AND STRENGTHEN SOME TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 84.8W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 84.8 West. Eta is moving
toward the southwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with
some reduction in forward speed is expected to continue through
tonight. Little overall motion is forecast on Tuesday and a slow
northward motion is expected Tuesday night and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will remain over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening will be possible tonight and Tuesday. Gradual
weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday and then continue
through the end of the week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Saturday morning:

The Bahamas: An additional 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm), with
isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: an additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm)), with isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida.

Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Additional flash
flooding is possible across inundated urban areas of southeast
Florida today. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
the Bahamas and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over
the next several days.

WIND: Gusty conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south
and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next day or so. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-09 20:51


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 092049
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
2100 UTC MON NOV 09 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ETA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 84.8W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 230 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 40SE 30SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 84.8W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 84.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.2N 85.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.4N 85.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.3N 85.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.6N 85.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.5N 85.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.2N 85.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 28.0N 85.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 28.6N 85.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 84.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 10/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-09 17:58


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 091756
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

...ETA WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE WHILE MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 84.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM N OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for the Dry
Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
please monitor products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your
national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by satellites and NOAA Doppler weather radars near latitude
24.2 North, longitude 84.2 West. Eta is moving toward the southwest
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion with some reduction in
forward speed is expected to continue through tonight. Little
overall motion is forecast on Tuesday and a slow northward motion is
expected on Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta
will continue to move away from the Florida Keys and south Florida
today, and will remain over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight
through Wednesday.

Data from a recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission and
Doppler radars indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased
to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is expected today and tonight. Some slight strengthening is
forecast on Tuesday into Wednesday, followed by gradual weakening
thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on recent reports from
the aircraft is 995 mb (29.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Saturday morning:

The Bahamas: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: an additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm)), with isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida.

Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Life-threatening flash
flooding will be possible across saturated urban areas of southeast
Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the
Bahamas and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over the
next several days. Minor river flooding is also possible for
central Florida.

WIND: Gusty conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south
and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today over parts of south
Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-09 16:07


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 091605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.11.2020

TROPICAL STORM 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.9N 43.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.11.2020 0 28.9N 43.5W 1005 35
0000UTC 10.11.2020 12 28.6N 40.8W 999 39
1200UTC 10.11.2020 24 29.0N 38.4W 996 43
0000UTC 11.11.2020 36 29.2N 36.4W 992 46
1200UTC 11.11.2020 48 29.9N 35.3W 991 53
0000UTC 12.11.2020 60 30.6N 33.5W 980 59
1200UTC 12.11.2020 72 31.4N 31.4W 978 55
0000UTC 13.11.2020 84 31.7N 29.6W 980 54
1200UTC 13.11.2020 96 32.5N 27.0W 979 58
0000UTC 14.11.2020 108 33.2N 24.4W 982 53
1200UTC 14.11.2020 120 33.1N 22.2W 986 57
0000UTC 15.11.2020 132 33.0N 20.8W 990 57
1200UTC 15.11.2020 144 32.9N 21.8W 1003 43

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.1N 83.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.11.2020 0 25.1N 83.2W 993 44
0000UTC 10.11.2020 12 23.4N 85.1W 994 33
1200UTC 10.11.2020 24 22.5N 85.8W 993 39
0000UTC 11.11.2020 36 22.9N 85.9W 992 44
1200UTC 11.11.2020 48 23.8N 85.8W 992 45
0000UTC 12.11.2020 60 24.2N 86.3W 991 49
1200UTC 12.11.2020 72 23.6N 87.0W 994 44
0000UTC 13.11.2020 84 22.4N 88.1W 998 38
1200UTC 13.11.2020 96 21.4N 89.8W 1002 32
0000UTC 14.11.2020 108 20.6N 91.7W 1005 29
1200UTC 14.11.2020 120 20.0N 93.8W 1005 29
0000UTC 15.11.2020 132 20.6N 94.7W 1006 27
1200UTC 15.11.2020 144 22.0N 95.9W 1007 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 12.1N 113.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.11.2020 144 11.9N 112.8W 1007 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091604

>

2020-11-09 16:07


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 091605

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.11.2020

TROPICAL STORM 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.9N 43.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.11.2020 28.9N 43.5W WEAK
00UTC 10.11.2020 28.6N 40.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.11.2020 29.0N 38.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2020 29.2N 36.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.11.2020 29.9N 35.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.11.2020 30.6N 33.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.11.2020 31.4N 31.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.11.2020 31.7N 29.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.11.2020 32.5N 27.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.11.2020 33.2N 24.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.11.2020 33.1N 22.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.11.2020 33.0N 20.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.11.2020 32.9N 21.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.1N 83.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.11.2020 25.1N 83.2W MODERATE
00UTC 10.11.2020 23.4N 85.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2020 22.5N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2020 22.9N 85.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.11.2020 23.8N 85.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.11.2020 24.2N 86.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.11.2020 23.6N 87.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.11.2020 22.4N 88.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.11.2020 21.4N 89.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.11.2020 20.6N 91.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.11.2020 20.0N 93.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.11.2020 20.6N 94.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.11.2020 22.0N 95.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 12.1N 113.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.11.2020 11.9N 112.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091604

>

2020-11-09 14:52


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 091449
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

Eta's overall appearance in satellite radar imagery has become quite
fragmented, with inner-core convection having become vertically
shallow and broken due to mid-level dry air entrainment. Some of the
recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight-level data indicate
that dry air has worked way down to the 850-mb level based dewpoint
spreads of more than 8 deg C. In the northeastern quadrant, a large
curved convective band persists that has produced widespread
rainfall amounts exceeding 10 inches along with strong gusty winds
across portions of the southern Florida peninsula. However, even
that band of thunderstorms has become less pronounced in both
satellite radar imagery over the past few hours. Doppler velocities
over land and over water have also come decreased significantly, and
the latest reconnaissance flight-level (58 kt) and SFMR surface wind
data (49 kt) supports lowering the intensity to 50 kt. The decrease
in intensity is also supported by the gradual rise in the central
pressure, which is now up to 994 mb.

Eta has finally made the expected southwestward turn, and the
initial motion is now 235/12 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge across
the Gulf of Mexico, Florida, and near the U.S. east coast is
expected to keep Eta moving southwestward for the next 24-36 hours,
accompanied by a steady decrease in forward speed. Steering currents
are forecast to collapse by 36-48 hours, causing Eta to possibly
stall and/or make a small loop just northwest of western Cuba. By 60
hours and beyond, a broad mid-latitude trough currently located over
the Rocky Mountains is forecast to move eastward and gradually erode
the portion of the ridge over the Gulf of Mexico, allowing Eta
slowly move northward to north-northeastward through 20 hours.
However, there remains considerable divergence between the global
models on days 4 and 5 with regards to how far north Eta will move,
with the ECMWF showing a more northward progression while the GFS
and UKMET models show the trough lifting out and not eroding the
ridge as much. For now, the official forecast track remains a
compromise of these two extremes, and shows a slow poleward
progression on days 3-5, similar to the consensus models TCVA and
NOAA-HCCA.

Eta could still re-strengthen some during the 24-48 hour period when
the cyclone will be moving over the warm waters of the Gulf of
Mexico Loop Current and the wind shear gradually decrease to less
than 10 kt. However, occasional intrusions of very dry air will
likely continue to plague the system, which would prevent any rapid
intensification from occurring and could keep Eta from regaining
hurricane status. By 48 hours and beyond, increasing vertical wind
shear and dry air should cause a gradual weakening of the cyclone
through end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast
is a little lower than the previous advisory, and closely follows
the intensity consensus models IVCN and HCCA.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
the Bahamas, and southern and central Florida. Life-threatening
flash flooding will be possible across urban areas of southeast
Florida today. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
Cuba, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida, along with
potential minor river flooding in central Florida.

2. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a
tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and
storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress of
Eta and updates to the forecast this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 24.6N 83.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 23.9N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 23.6N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 24.5N 85.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 25.6N 85.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 26.5N 85.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 27.2N 85.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 28.4N 84.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 29.6N 83.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-09 14:48


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 091445
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

...ETA MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 83.4W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM WSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM NNE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued for all of the
Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, excluding the Dry Tortugas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 6 to 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the Gulf Coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 83.4
West. Eta is moving toward the southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and
this motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected to
continue through tonight. Little overall motion is forecast on
Tuesday and a slow northward motion is expected on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to move away
from the Florida Keys and south Florida today, and will remain over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday.

Data from the aircraft and Doppler radars indicate that maximum
sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today and tonight.
Some slight strengthening is forecast on Tuesday into Wednesday,
followed by gradual weakening thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the
aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Saturday morning:

The Bahamas: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), with
isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: an additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm)), with isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida.

Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Life-threatening flash
flooding will be possible across saturated urban areas of southeast
Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the
Bahamas and the remainder of southern and eastern Florida over the
next several days. Minor river flooding is also possible for
central Florida.

WIND: Gusty conditions will continue across the Florida Keys, south
and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas today. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible today over parts of south
Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-09 14:48


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 091445
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
1500 UTC MON NOV 09 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...EXCLUDING THE DRY TORTUGAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ETA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 83.4W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......130NE 40SE 30SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 83.4W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 82.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.9N 84.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.6N 85.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.5N 85.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.6N 85.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.5N 85.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.2N 85.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 28.4N 84.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 29.6N 83.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 83.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-09 11:50


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 091148
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

...ETA MOVING WESTWARD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINS STILL OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 82.9W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM WNW OF DRY TORTUGAS FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for all of the Bahamas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Anna Maria
Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 82.9
West. Eta is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h). A
westward motion will continue this morning, followed by a
west-southwestward motion with some reduction in forward speed this
afternoon and tonight. Little overall motion is forecast on Tuesday
and a slow northward motion is expected on Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will gradually move away from the
Florida Keys and south Florida today, and will remain over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft and Doppler radars indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or
so, and Eta is forecast to become a hurricane when it moves over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center. A wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was recently
reported in Homestead, Florida.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the
aircraft is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Saturday morning:

Jamaica and The Bahamas: An additional 2 to 4 inches (25 to 75 mm),
with isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: an additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida.

Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Life-threatening flash
flooding will be possible across inundated urban areas of southeast
Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and the remainder of southern and eastern
Florida over the next several days. Minor river flooding is also
possible for central Florida.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Florida
Keys, south and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas
today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical
Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over
parts of south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-09 09:05


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 090902 CCA
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 36...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

Corrected a typo in the second paragraph

Tropical Storm Eta made landfall in the middle Florida Keys around
11 pm EST with maximum winds of about 55 kt. Since then it has
moved across Florida Bay and is now located off the coast of
extreme southwestern Florida. The storm has generally changed
little in strength overnight with maximum winds estimated to be near
55 kt based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter and Doppler radar data. Bands
of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds continue over portions
of the Florida Keys, and south and central Florida.

Eta is now moving west-northwestward at 12 kt. The upper-level
trough that Eta is entangled with and a mid-level high pressure
system off the southeast U.S. coast should steer the storm westward
to west-southwestward away from south Florida and the Keys through
tonight. The steering currents surrounding Eta are expected to
collapse on Tuesday, and most of the guidance responds by showing
Eta meandering over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in the 24-48
hour time period. After that time, the models diverge significantly
with the ECMWF showing a turn to the north or northeast in response
to an upper trough that is expected to move into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest runs of GFS and UKMET models
show the trough lifting out and provided little steering for Eta,
which causes a continued slow and erratic motion over the Gulf in
those models. The new track forecast shows a slower northward to
northeastward motion compared to the previous one from days 3-5 as a
compromise of the latest models and continuity. Due to the poor
model agreement beyond a couple of days, the track forecast at the
longer range is of low confidence, and large changes are possible if
the models converge toward the GFS/UKMET solutions.

The storm will have an opportunity to strengthen a little during
the next couple of days and it could become a hurricane as it moves
over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop current and remains
in light-to-moderate wind shear conditions. However, there will be
a fair amount of dry air surrounding Eta, and that should limit the
amount of intensification. Beyond a couple of days, depending on
exactly where Eta is, the models show an increase in westerly
shear, which in combination with the dry air should cause a slow
decay. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous
one, and is also of low confidence since its unclear where Eta will
be located later in the week.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into
central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible
across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida today. Flash and
urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas
and the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minor
river flooding in central Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
Florida Keys, and south and central Florida today.

3. Water levels will gradually recede along portions of the
southern coast of the Florida peninsula and Keys. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

4. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a
tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and
storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress
of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 25.2N 82.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 24.6N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 23.8N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 23.9N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 24.8N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 26.0N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 26.7N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 27.8N 84.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 29.4N 83.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-09 08:41


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 090838
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

Tropical Storm Eta made landfall in the middle Florida Keys around
11 pm EST with maximum winds of about 55 kt. Since then it has
moved across Florida Bay and is now located off the coast of
extreme southwestern Florida. The storm has generally changed
little in strength overnight with maximum winds estimated to be near
55 kt based on NOAA Hurricane Hunter and Doppler radar data. Bands
of heavy rain and tropical-storm-force winds continue over portions
of the Florida Keys, and south and central Florida.

Eta is now moving west-northward at 12 kt. The upper-level trough
that Eta is entangled with and a mid-level high pressure system off
the southeast U.S. coast should steer the storm westward to
west-southwestward away from south Florida and the Keys through
tonight. The steering currents surrounding Eta are expected to
collapse on Tuesday, and most of the guidance responds by showing
Eta meandering over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in the 24-48
hour time period. After that time, the models diverge significantly
with the ECMWF showing a turn to the north or northeast in response
to an upper trough that is expected to move into the northwestern
Gulf of Mexico. However, the latest runs of GFS and UKMET models
show the trough lifting out and provided little steering for Eta,
which causes a continued slow and erratic motion over the Gulf in
those models. The new track forecast shows a slower northward to
northeastward motion compared to the previous one from days 3-5 as
a compromise of the latest models and continuity. Due to the poor
model agreement beyond a couple of days, the track forecast at the
longer range is of low confidence, and large changes are possible if
the models converge toward the GFS/UKMET solutions.

The storm will have an opportunity to strengthen a little during
the next couple of days and it could become a hurricane as it moves
over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico Loop current and remains
in light-to-moderate wind shear conditions. However, there will be
a fair amount of dry air surrounding Eta, and that should limit the
amount of intensification. Beyond a couple of days, depending on
exactly where Eta is, the models show an increase in westerly
shear, which in combination with the dry air should cause a slow
decay. The NHC intensity forecast is unchanged from the previous
one, and is also of low confidence since its unclear where Eta will
be located later in the week.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into
central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible
across inundated urban areas of southeast Florida today. Flash and
urban flooding will also be possible for Cuba, Jamaica, the Bahamas
and the remainder of southern Florida, along with potential minor
river flooding in central Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the
Florida Keys, and south and central Florida today.

3. Water levels will gradually recede along portions of the
southern coast of the Florida peninsula and Keys. Residents in
these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

4. Eta could approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this week as a
tropical storm, and possibly bring impacts from rain, wind, and
storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress
of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 25.2N 82.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 24.6N 83.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 23.8N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 23.9N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 24.8N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 26.0N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 26.7N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 27.8N 84.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 29.4N 83.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-09 08:40


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 090838
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

...ETA JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHWEST FLORIDA...
...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OCCURRING
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.2N 82.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNW OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM S OF NAPLES FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning and Storm Surge Watch have been
discontinued.

The Hurricane Warning for the Florida Keys and Florida Bay have been
replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Hurricane Watch for south Florida has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm
Warning for the Florida west coast from Englewood to Anna Maria
Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Anna Maria
Island
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 82.0 West. Eta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A west to west-
southwest motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected
later today and tonight. Little overall motion is expected on
Tuesday and a slow northward motion is forecast on Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Eta will gradually pull away from
the Florida Keys and south Florida today and be over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight through Wednesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and National Weather
Service Doppler radar indicate that the maximum sustained winds
remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening
is forecast during the next day or so, and Eta is forecast to become
a hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Saturday morning:

Jamaica and The Bahamas: An additional 2 to 4 inches (25 to 75 mm),
with isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm total accumulations of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: an additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), with isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm) in South Florida.

Flash flooding and river flooding will be possible in Cuba, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Life-threatening flash
flooding will be possible across inundated urban areas of southeast
Florida. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and the remainder of southern and eastern
Florida over the next several days. Minor river flooding is also
possible for central Florida.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Card Sound Bridge including Florida Keys... 2-3
ft
Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach... 1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by dangerous
waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the
surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short
distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Florida
Keys, south and central Florida, and the northwestern Bahamas
today. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical
Storm Watch area in Cuba tonight and Tuesday.

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over
parts of south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-09 08:40


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 090838
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0900 UTC MON NOV 09 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING AND STORM SURGE WATCH HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND FLORIDA BAY HAVE BEEN
REPLACED WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR SOUTH FLORIDA HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST FROM ENGLEWOOD TO ANNA MARIA
ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS
ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE
* FLORIDA COAST FROM BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO ANNA MARIA
ISLAND
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL
RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ETA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 82.0W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......270NE 100SE 30SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 75SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 82.0W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 81.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.6N 83.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 80SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.8N 84.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 23.9N 85.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.8N 85.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N 85.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 26.7N 84.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 27.8N 84.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 29.4N 83.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.2N 82.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-11-09 05:57


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 090554
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 AM EST Mon Nov 09 2020

...ETA IS VERY NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA...
...STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAINS, AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE OCCURRING
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 81.3W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 40 MI...80 KM NE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach to Card Sound Bridge

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 25.0 North, longitude 81.3 West. Eta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west to west-
southwest motion with some reduction in forward speed is expected
later today and tonight. Little overall motion is expected on
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will pass near or
over the Florida Keys and extreme south Florida during the next few
hours, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and
Tuesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and National Weather
Service Doppler radar indicate that the maximum sustained winds
remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening
is forecast during the next day or so, and Eta is forecast to become
a hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center. An observation in Everglades National Park
recently reported a wind gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data is 992 mb (29.29
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday morning:

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: storm totals of 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across the urban
areas of southeast Florida. Significant flash and urban flooding
will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and the remainder of
southern Florida. Minor river flooding is also possible for central
Florida.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across the Florida
Keys this morning with hurricane conditions expected in a portion
of the Florida Keys during the next few hours. Tropical storm
conditions are expected to continue in the warning areas in the
northwestern Bahamas and the Florida peninsula through this
morning. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch
area in Florida this morning. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Florida later today.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today across south Florida
and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-09 04:13


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 090411
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1100 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

...ETA MAKES LANDFALL IN LOWER MATECUMBE KEY FLORIDA...

Doppler radar data indicate that Eta has made landfall on Lower
Matecumbe Key in the Florida Keys as a strong tropical storm with
maximum winds estimated to be near 65 mph (100 km/h).

A WeatherFlow station at Carysfort Reef Light in the Florida Keys
recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust
of 63 mph (101 km/h). Another Weatherflow station in Key Largo
recently reported a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h). A wind gust
of 47 mph (76 km/h) was measured at Homestead Air Force Base in
Homestead, Florida.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 80.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake

>

2020-11-09 04:09


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 090407
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Tropical Cyclone Update.
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1100 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

...ETA MAKES LANDFALL IN LOWER MATECUMBE KEY FLORIDA ...

Doppler radar data indicate that Eta has made landfall on Lower
Matecumbe Key in the Florida Keys as a strong tropical storm with
maximum winds estimated to be near 65 mph (100 km/h).

A WeatherFlow station at Carysfort Reef Light in the Florida Keys
recently reported a sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) with a gust
of 63 mph (101 km/h). Another Weatherflow station in Key Largo
recently reported a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h). A wind gust
of 47 mph (76 km/h) was measured at Homestead Air Force Base in
Homestead, Florida.

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 80.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Blake

>

2020-11-09 04:04


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 090402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 09.11.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.6N 45.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.11.2020 0 28.6N 45.9W 1010 26
1200UTC 09.11.2020 12 28.6N 43.0W 1006 32
0000UTC 10.11.2020 24 28.8N 40.5W 1001 38
1200UTC 10.11.2020 36 29.1N 37.8W 999 43
0000UTC 11.11.2020 48 29.5N 35.1W 997 40
1200UTC 11.11.2020 60 30.0N 33.5W 997 44
0000UTC 12.11.2020 72 30.9N 31.4W 989 54
1200UTC 12.11.2020 84 32.0N 28.6W 983 54
0000UTC 13.11.2020 96 32.5N 26.0W 980 57
1200UTC 13.11.2020 108 33.5N 22.8W 981 55
0000UTC 14.11.2020 120 34.5N 19.7W 984 53
1200UTC 14.11.2020 132 35.3N 16.6W 989 47
0000UTC 15.11.2020 144 35.7N 13.7W 991 46

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 79.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.11.2020 0 24.5N 79.9W 995 42
1200UTC 09.11.2020 12 24.8N 83.2W 997 41
0000UTC 10.11.2020 24 23.1N 85.1W 997 29
1200UTC 10.11.2020 36 22.7N 85.4W 996 31
0000UTC 11.11.2020 48 23.5N 85.7W 996 32
1200UTC 11.11.2020 60 24.1N 86.0W 997 36
0000UTC 12.11.2020 72 24.5N 86.2W 998 37
1200UTC 12.11.2020 84 24.5N 86.8W 1002 35
0000UTC 13.11.2020 96 23.9N 87.9W 1005 26
1200UTC 13.11.2020 108 23.4N 89.3W 1008 21
0000UTC 14.11.2020 120 22.8N 90.9W 1009 22
1200UTC 14.11.2020 132 23.4N 92.6W 1010 22
0000UTC 15.11.2020 144 24.5N 93.7W 1010 19

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.5N 74.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.11.2020 120 14.5N 74.1W 1007 31
1200UTC 14.11.2020 132 13.5N 74.7W 1007 31
0000UTC 15.11.2020 144 12.9N 75.6W 1005 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 090401

>

2020-11-09 04:03


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 090401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.11.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.6N 45.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL972020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.11.2020 28.6N 45.9W WEAK
12UTC 09.11.2020 28.6N 43.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.11.2020 28.8N 40.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.11.2020 29.1N 37.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2020 29.5N 35.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.11.2020 30.0N 33.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.11.2020 30.9N 31.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.11.2020 32.0N 28.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.11.2020 32.5N 26.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.11.2020 33.5N 22.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.11.2020 34.5N 19.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.11.2020 35.3N 16.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.11.2020 35.7N 13.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 79.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.11.2020 24.5N 79.9W MODERATE
12UTC 09.11.2020 24.8N 83.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.11.2020 23.1N 85.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2020 22.7N 85.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2020 23.5N 85.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.11.2020 24.1N 86.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.11.2020 24.5N 86.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.11.2020 24.5N 86.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.11.2020 23.9N 87.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.11.2020 23.4N 89.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.11.2020 22.8N 90.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.11.2020 23.4N 92.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.11.2020 24.5N 93.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.5N 74.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.11.2020 14.5N 74.1W WEAK
12UTC 14.11.2020 13.5N 74.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.11.2020 12.9N 75.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 090401

>

2020-11-09 02:57


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 090254
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

Although deep convection has waned near the center of Eta since
this afternoon, radar imagery continues to show a ring of
low-topped convection around the center, with some deep convection
returning over the northeastern portion of the circulation. Doppler
radar velocities of 64-68 kt around 5000 ft, and recent NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft observations support maintaining the 55 kt
initial intensity. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of
around 993 mb.

Since Eta has a fairly large radius of maximum winds and a dry slot
that has wrapped into the inner core, it appears that any short-term
strengthening should be slow to occur. As a result, the new NHC
intensity forecast calls for a little less strengthening until Eta
moves into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 24 hours.
Regardless of whether Eta becomes a hurricane near the Florida Keys,
there is little difference in impacts between a 55-to-60-kt
tropical storm and a 65-kt hurricane. After 24 hours, Eta is
forecast to move over warmer sea surface temperatures in the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico and the vertical shear is forecast to
decrease. This is expected to allow for some strengthening and Eta
is forecast re-gain hurricane strengthen by Tuesday. Gradual
weakening is predicted between 72-120 hours due to increasing
southwesterly shear and the entrainment of dry mid-level air. The
updated NHC intensity forecast is near the SHIPS/LGEM models during
the first couple of days, and in good agreement with the HFIP
corrected consensus model thereafter.

Eta has turned northwestward this evening around the north side
of a cut-off low located just south of western Cuba. The tropical
cyclone should turn west-northwestward to westward overnight, and
a southwestward motion is expected on Tuesday as Eta pivots
around the upper-low. In 36-48 h, Eta is expected to slow down and
possibly stall over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as the steering
currents weakening. In about 3 days, Eta should begin moving
northward between a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic and a
broad trough over the central United States. The models that
maintain Eta has a deeper system show a faster northeastward motion
late in the period, whereas models that weaken Eta slow its
northward progression by day 5. The NHC track forecast lies near
the model consensus at 96 and 120 h, and is similar to the previous
advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into
central Florida. Life-threatening flash flooding is possible
across the urban areas of southeast Florida. Significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding is possible in
Cuba, and significant flash and urban flooding are possible
for Jamaica, the Bahamas and the remainder of southern Florida,
along with potential minor river flooding in central Florida.

2. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Monday
across portions of the Florida Keys, and are possible across
portions of southern Florida. Tropical storm conditions will extend
well away from Eta's center across the southern and central
portions of the Florida peninsula.

3. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge in portions of
the Florida Keys. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along
portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula. Residents
in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

4. Eta is forecast to approach the Florida Gulf Coast later this
week as a tropical storm, and could bring impacts from rain, wind,
and storm surge. Interests in this area should monitor the progress
of Eta and updates to the forecast this week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 24.6N 80.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 24.9N 82.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 24.2N 84.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 23.6N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 24.2N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 25.5N 84.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 26.6N 84.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 28.2N 83.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 30.0N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-09 02:56


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 090254
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

...ETA BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING
TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...
...STRONG WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 80.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM E OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM E OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach to Card Sound Bridge

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 80.5 West. Eta is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A west-northwestward to
westward motion is expected overnight, followed by a west-
southwestward motion on Monday and Monday night with some reduction
in forward speed. Little overall motion is expected on Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Eta will pass near or over the
Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and National Weather
Service Doppler radar indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is
forecast during the next day or so and Eta is forecast to become a
hurricane when it moves over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 310 miles (500 km)
from the center. A WeatherFlow station at Carysfort Reef Light
in the Florida Keys recently reported a sustained wind of 57 mph
(91 km/h) with a gust to 72 mph (114 km/h). An elevated station a
Port Everglades recently reported a wind gust of 66 mph (106 km/h).
Farther north a sustained wind of 42 mph (68 km/h) with a gust to
54 mph (87 km/h) was reported at the Lake Worth Pier.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday morning:

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: storm totals of 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Life-threatening flash flooding will be possible across the urban
areas of southeast Florida. Significant flash and urban flooding
will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas, and the remainder of
southern Florida. Minor river flooding is also possible for central
Florida.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the Florida Keys
tonight with hurricane conditions expected in a portion of the
Florida Keys by early Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to continue in the warning areas in the northwestern
Bahamas and the Florida peninsula through early Monday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida
tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the Tropical Storm Watch area in Florida by Monday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through Monday across south
Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually
subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and
Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products
from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Beven/Papin

>

2020-11-09 02:56


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 090253
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0300 UTC MON NOV 09 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS
ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE
* FLORIDA COAST FROM BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO ENGLEWOOD
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ETA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 80.5W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......270NE 100SE 30SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 80.5W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 80.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.9N 82.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...240NE 100SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.2N 84.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.6N 85.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.2N 85.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 25.5N 84.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 26.6N 84.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 28.2N 83.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 30.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 80.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-11-08 23:52


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 082350
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND
HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING SPREADING OVER SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 80.1W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach to Card Sound Bridge

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located by National Weather Service Doppler radar near latitude 24.5
North, longitude 80.1 West. Eta is moving toward the northwest near
14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue during
the next few hours, followed by a turn toward the west later
tonight. A slower west-southwestward motion is forecast Monday night
and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will pass near
or over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so and
Eta is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves near or over the
Florida Keys tonight and early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. Sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been
reported along much of the southeast Florida coast during the past
few hours. A National Ocean Service station on Virginia Key recently
reported sustained winds of 36 mph (58 km/h) with a gust to 45 mph
(72 km/h). A WeatherFlow station at Morningside Park just north of
downtown Miami recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h)
and a gust to 51 mph (82 km/h). An elevated site at Port Everglades
reported a 50 mph (80 km/h) sustained wind and a 65 mph (105 km/h)
gust within the past hour or so. Farther north, a WeatherFlow site
near Juno Beach reported a wind gust of 49 mph (79 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated maximum
storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: storm totals of 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Significant flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding is
also possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will spread across the Florida Keys
tonight with hurricane conditions expected in a portion of the
Florida Keys by early Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are
expected to continue in the warning areas in the northwestern
Bahamas and the Florida peninsula through early Monday. Hurricane
conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in Florida
tonight and early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in
the Tropical Storm Watch area in Florida by Monday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening through Monday
over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually
subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and
Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-08 21:01


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 082058 CCA
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
2100 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020

CORRECTED TO SHOW DISCONTINUED WARNINGS FOR CUBA

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH NORTH OF CARD SOUND BRIDGE TO GOLDEN BEACH, FL
INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY, CIEGO DE AVILA, SANCTI SPIRITUS,
VILLA CLARA, CIENFUEGOS, AND MATANZAS

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS
ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE
* FLORIDA COAST FROM BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO ENGLEWOOD
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 79.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 30SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 79.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.7N 81.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 100SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.6N 83.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 100SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.6N 84.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N 85.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.1N 85.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.8N 84.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.1N 84.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 29.0N 82.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 79.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-08 21:00


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 082057
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

Eta's appearance in radar and satellite imagery has changed little
since the previous advisory and the last reconnaissance mission a
few hours ago, with a ragged mid-level eye-like feature briefly
wrapping up for less than an hour before quickly decaying. Average
velocity values from the Miami, Florida, NOAA WSR-88D Doppler
weather radar have occasionally been as high as 60 kt between
10,000-12,000 ft ASL to the north and northeast of the center.
Therefore, the initial intensity is being maintained at 55 kt for
this advisory. A NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate Eta around 0000Z this evening.

The initial motion estimate is 325/12 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous track forecast reasoning from the last 36
hours. Eta is now moving northwestward around the northeastern side
of an upper-level low that has formed over the extreme northwestern
Caribbean Sea near the Isle of Youth. The combined easterly flow
between the upper-low and a deep-layer ridge located near the U.S.
mid-Atlantic coast is expected to force Eta westward overnight and
then turn the cyclone slowly southwestward in the 24-48 hour period,
with the cyclone possibly stalling just west of the lower Florida
Keys when steering currents collapse around 48 hours. By 72 hours
and beyond, a broad mid-latitude trough is forecast to move from the
U.S. west coast eastward over the central U.S. by 96 hours, and then
over the eastern U.S. by 120 hours, which will erode the western
portion of the ridge and act to gradually lift Eta northeastward
toward northern Florida. The latest NHC model guidance has shifted
slightly northward, possibly due to the NOAA G-IV jet aircraft
synoptic track dropsonde observations from earlier this morning, and
now shows the center of Eta making landfall in the middle or lower
Florida Keys late tonight and early Monday. The new NHC official
track forecast has been nudged northward close to the consensus
models HCCA and TCVA. It should be noted that although the latest
model guidance and track forecast shows landfall in the Florida
Keys, the strongest winds are occurring, and are expected to occur,
well to the north and east of the center.

Satellite imagery indicates that a pronounced dry slot has wrapped
into the eastern portion of Eta's circulation, with radar data
suggesting that it has occasionally penetrated into the inner core
region as well, eroding the thunderstorm activity in the southern
portion of the aforementioned eye-like feature. However, with the
vertical shear forecast to steadily decrease from the current 25 kt
down to less than 10 kt by 24 hours while Eta is moving over 28.5
deg C SSTs, strengthening is expected late tonight during the
convective maximum period and continuing into Monday, resulting in
Eta intensifying into a hurricane during that time. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain somewhat favorable for Eta to
maintain hurricane status through 60 hours, followed by gradual
weakening from 72-120 hours due to increasing southwesterly shear of
20-25 kt and entrainment of very dry mid-level air. The latest
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous NHC advisory,
and remains above the model guidance through 36 hours and is a
little below the guidance thereafter.

Based on ASCAT data and surface observations, the wind radii were
expanded in the northwest and northeast quadrants.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected tonight and early Monday across
portions of the Florida Keys, and are possible across portions of
southern Florida. Tropical storm conditions will extend well away
from Eta's center across the southern and central portions of the
Florida peninsula.

2. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge in portions of
the Florida Keys. Life-threatening storm surge is possible along
portions of the southern coast of the Florida peninsula. Residents
in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and will spread north
into central Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-
threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Significant
flash and urban flooding are also possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas
and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in
central Florida.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 23.9N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 24.7N 81.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 24.6N 83.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 23.6N 84.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 24.0N 85.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 25.1N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 25.8N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 27.1N 84.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 29.0N 82.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-08 20:58


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 082056
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

...ETA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.9N 79.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM ESE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch has been discontinued for the east coast of
Florida north of Golden Beach.

The Storm Surge Watch north of Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach, FL
including Biscayne Bay has been discontinued.

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Bonita Beach to Card Sound Bridge

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Florida peninsula should monitor the
progress of Eta.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 23.9 North, longitude 79.5 West. Eta is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion is
expected to continue this evening, followed by a turn toward the
west by Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will
continue to move over the Florida Straits between Cuba and the
Bahamas this afternoon, pass near or over the Florida Keys tonight
and early Monday, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late
Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so
and Eta is forecast to become a hurricane as it moves near or over
the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. Sustained tropical-storm-force winds have been
reported along much of the southeast Florida coast during the past
few hours. A WeatherFlow station at Dania pier recently reported
sustained winds of 42 mph (68 km/h) with a gust to 54 mph (87 km/h).
An elevated site at Port Everglades reported 51 mph (82 km/h)
sustained wind and a 68 mph (109 km/h) gust. Farther north, a
National Ocean Service site at Lake Worth Pier reported sustained
winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 49 mph (79 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated maximum
storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: storm totals of 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Significant flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding is
also possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Card Sound Bridge...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Card Sound Bridge to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Florida Keys by early
Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue
in the warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in
the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys this
afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Florida by early Monday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible this evening through Monday
over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually
subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and
Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Zelinsky

>

2020-11-08 20:56


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 082053
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
2100 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE EAST COAST
OF FLORIDA NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH NORTH OF CARD SOUND BRIDGE TO GOLDEN BEACH, FL
INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA COAST FROM BONITA BEACH TO CARD SOUND BRIDGE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS
ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE
* FLORIDA COAST FROM BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO ENGLEWOOD
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 79.5W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 30SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.9N 79.5W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.7N 81.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 100SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.6N 83.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 100SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.6N 84.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.0N 85.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.1N 85.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 25.8N 84.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.1N 84.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 29.0N 82.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.9N 79.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-08 17:57


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 081755
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

...ETA MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE FLORIDA STRAITS...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.5N 79.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM SE OF MARATHON FLORIDA
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
including Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor
the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or
Warnings could be required for some of these areas on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), data from satellites and Cuban radars
indicate that the center of Tropical Storm Eta was located near
latitude 23.5 North, longitude 79.2 West. Eta is moving toward the
north-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is forecast
to continue through this afternoon. A turn toward northwest is
expected by this evening, followed by a westward motion by early
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to
move over the Florida Straits between Cuba and the Bahamas this
afternoon, pass near or over the Florida Keys tonight and early
Monday, and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Eta is forecast to become a hurricane before it reaches the
Florida Keys tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. During the past few hours, tropical-storm-force
winds gusts have been occurring all along the southeast Florida
coast. A gust to 60 mph (97 km/h) was measured by an elevated
weather station on Ft. Lauderdale Beach, a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h)
was observed at Palm Beach International Airport and at an elevated
site at Fowey Rocks, while a gust to 46 mph (74 km/h) was measured
at the Boca Raton Airport. North Perry Hollywood Airport also just
reported a wind gust of 53 mph (85 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated maximum
storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals
of 18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
Significant flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding
is also possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Florida Keys by early
Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue
in the warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in
the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys this
afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Florida by early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening through Monday
over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually
subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and
Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-08 16:04


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 081601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 08.11.2020

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 78.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.11.2020 0 21.4N 78.9W 997 38
0000UTC 09.11.2020 12 24.2N 79.5W 989 50
1200UTC 09.11.2020 24 25.3N 82.2W 987 54
0000UTC 10.11.2020 36 24.0N 85.1W 987 42
1200UTC 10.11.2020 48 22.7N 86.0W 984 46
0000UTC 11.11.2020 60 22.7N 85.7W 978 55
1200UTC 11.11.2020 72 23.3N 85.1W 975 64
0000UTC 12.11.2020 84 24.0N 85.0W 977 61
1200UTC 12.11.2020 96 23.9N 85.1W 976 63
0000UTC 13.11.2020 108 23.2N 85.4W 973 69
1200UTC 13.11.2020 120 22.3N 86.3W 978 60
0000UTC 14.11.2020 132 21.0N 88.4W 981 43
1200UTC 14.11.2020 144 20.1N 90.7W 986 47

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 28.2N 45.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.11.2020 12 28.2N 45.7W 1010 25
1200UTC 09.11.2020 24 28.3N 42.5W 1006 32
0000UTC 10.11.2020 36 29.4N 39.3W 1003 36
1200UTC 10.11.2020 48 30.1N 35.9W 1002 37
0000UTC 11.11.2020 60 30.9N 32.8W 999 39
1200UTC 11.11.2020 72 32.1N 30.5W 999 37
0000UTC 12.11.2020 84 33.8N 27.4W 996 35
1200UTC 12.11.2020 96 34.8N 24.8W 990 54
0000UTC 13.11.2020 108 34.6N 21.1W 991 43
1200UTC 13.11.2020 120 34.9N 17.1W 992 45
0000UTC 14.11.2020 132 36.3N 14.0W 991 44
1200UTC 14.11.2020 144 37.2N 11.3W 992 41

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.9N 72.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.11.2020 120 15.9N 72.5W 1007 29
0000UTC 14.11.2020 132 15.9N 74.3W 1007 28
1200UTC 14.11.2020 144 14.8N 75.5W 1007 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 39.4N 67.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.11.2020 132 40.1N 65.1W 1011 32
1200UTC 14.11.2020 144 41.0N 57.3W 1005 36


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081601

>

2020-11-08 16:03


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 081601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.11.2020

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 78.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.11.2020 21.4N 78.9W MODERATE
00UTC 09.11.2020 24.2N 79.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.11.2020 25.3N 82.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.11.2020 24.0N 85.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2020 22.7N 86.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2020 22.7N 85.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.11.2020 23.3N 85.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.11.2020 24.0N 85.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.11.2020 23.9N 85.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.11.2020 23.2N 85.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.11.2020 22.3N 86.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.11.2020 21.0N 88.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.11.2020 20.1N 90.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 28.2N 45.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.11.2020 28.2N 45.7W WEAK
12UTC 09.11.2020 28.3N 42.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.11.2020 29.4N 39.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2020 30.1N 35.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2020 30.9N 32.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.11.2020 32.1N 30.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.11.2020 33.8N 27.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.11.2020 34.8N 24.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.11.2020 34.6N 21.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.11.2020 34.9N 17.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.11.2020 36.3N 14.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.11.2020 37.2N 11.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.9N 72.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.11.2020 15.9N 72.5W WEAK
00UTC 14.11.2020 15.9N 74.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.11.2020 14.8N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 39.4N 67.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.11.2020 40.1N 65.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.11.2020 41.0N 57.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081601

>

2020-11-08 15:57


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 081554 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 33...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

Corrected distances from Canagua Cuba

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 79.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM W OF CANAGUA CUBA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida
Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
including Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor
the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or
Warnings could be required for some of these areas on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft and Cuban radars indicate that the center of Tropical Storm
Eta was located just north of central Cuba near latitude 22.5
North, longitude 79.2 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 14
mph (22 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northwest is
expected by this afternoon, followed by a northwestward turn by this
evening, and a westward motion by early Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will continue to move over the Florida
Straits between Cuba and the Bahamas today, pass near or over the
Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Eta could become a hurricane before it reaches the
Florida Keys tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated maximum
storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals
of 18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
Significant flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding
is also possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Florida Keys by early
Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue
in the warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in
the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys this
afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Florida by early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening through Monday
over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually
subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and
Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-08 15:07


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 081504
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
AND FLORIDA BAY...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 79.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...55 KM W OF CANAGUA CUBA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning and Storm Surge Warning has been issued for the
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida
Bay.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
including Florida Bay
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor
the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or
Warnings could be required for some of these areas on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft and Cuban radars indicate that the center of Tropical Storm
Eta was located just north of central Cuba near latitude 22.5
North, longitude 79.2 West. Eta is moving toward the north near 14
mph (22 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northwest is
expected by this afternoon, followed by a northwestward turn by this
evening, and a westward motion by early Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will continue to move over the Florida
Straits between Cuba and the Bahamas today, pass near or over the
Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the southeastern
Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Eta could become a hurricane before it reaches the
Florida Keys tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm), isolated maximum
storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125 mm),
isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals
of 18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain.
Significant flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding
is also possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Golden Beach, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Florida Keys by early
Monday morning. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue
in the warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in
the northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys this
afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in
Florida by early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening through Monday
over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually
subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and
Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-08 15:02


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 081500
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

Eta remains a sheared tropical storm, although the low-level center
has become embedded a little farther into the convective cloud mass.
Cuban radar data from Camaguey indicate that Eta's center has moved
back over water and is now located just offshore the east-central
coast of Cuba. Radar imagery also indicates that a fairly
impressive band of deep convection wraps more than half way around
the center, especially in the western semicircle. Cirrus outflow
has expanded in the southern semicircle, and indication that the
shear may be decreasing somewhat. However, water vapor satellite
imagery still shows a fair amount of dry mid-/upper-level air
impinging on the cyclone from the southwest. The initial intensity
of 55 kt is based on a report of 850-mb flight-level winds of 70 kt
and reliable SFMR winds of 55-57 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 355/10 kt. Eta is interacting
with a sharp mid-/upper-level, negatively tilted trough that
extends east-southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico and into the
northwestern Caribbean Sea. The eastern end of the trough is
forecast to develop into a cutoff low alter today, which will act
to turn Eta northwestward by this afternoon, and westward later
tonight. The complex interaction between these two features is
forecast to continue through 72 hours, resulting in the development
of weak steering currents and Eta slowing down and possibly
stalling near or just west of the Florida Keys by day 3.
Thereafter, the global and regional models show widely varying
solutions ranging from a motion toward the south or southwest
(UKMET) toward Yucatan, to slow northward (ECMWF) or northeastward
motion (GFS/HWRF) over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The new NHC
track forecast lies to the north, or to the right, of the 12Z
interpolated models and consensus models (due to the interpolater
possibly having some problems handling the sharp westward turn that
Eta is forecast to make), and lies close to the previous advisory
track and a blend of the operational 00Z ECMWF, and 06Z GFS and
UKMET model tracks.

Now that Eta's center is back over water, gradual re-strengthening
is expected to begin later this afternoon. The global models are
forecasting to vertical wind shear to steadily decrease across the
center for the next next 48 hours as Eta moves north of the cutoff
low and into a col small region region between the low and an
upper-level trough moving eastward across northern Florida. The
GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance indicate that the
shear will decrease to less than 10 kt by 36 hours, but the shear
will likely decrease sooner since SHIPS model uses winds that extend
out 500 km (270 nmi) from the center, which are not always
representative of the wind flow near the center. With favorable
low-shear conditions and sea-surface temperatures warmer than 28 deg
C, the only hindering factor appears to be proximity to dry
mid-level air, which could get entrained into the inner core and
inhibit development of deep convection in that part of the cyclone.
For now, the new NHC intensity forecast remains similar to the
previous advisory, which is above the model guidance up to 36 hours
and a little below the guidance thereafter, and shows Eta at 65 kt
or Category 1 hurricane intensity in the 24-72 hour period. However,
it is certainly possibly that if dry air does not penetrate into
Eta's inner core later today, then the cyclone could become a
hurricane before it reaches the Florida Keys tonight. For this
reason, a Hurricane Warning has been issued for portions of the
Florida Keys.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into
central Florida. This rain may result in significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash
and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas
and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in
central Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today in
portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect.

3. Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the Florida
Keys by early Monday where a Hurricane Warning is now in effect.
Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin in the
Florida Keys by this afternoon. Tropical Storm conditions are also
expected and hurricane conditions are possible for portions of the
southern Florida peninsula where a Tropical Storm Warning and
Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across portions of the east
and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the risk of
tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's center,
and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.

4. A dangerous storm surge is expected in portions of the Florida
Keys where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. A Storm Surge
Watch is also in effect for portions of the southern coast of
the Florida peninsula. Residents in the Storm Surge Warning
and Watch areas should follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 22.5N 79.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 24.1N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 24.5N 82.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 23.9N 84.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 23.8N 85.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 24.0N 85.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 24.9N 85.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 26.2N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 26.9N 83.9W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-08 14:58


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 081456
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
1500 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING AND STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO BONITA BEACH...INCLUDING
BISCAYNE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO BONITA BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS
ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE
* FLORIDA COAST FROM BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO ENGLEWOOD
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR
WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 79.2W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 79.2W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 79.1W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.1N 79.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 100SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.5N 82.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 100SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.9N 84.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 23.8N 85.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 24.9N 85.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 26.2N 84.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 26.9N 83.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 79.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-08 11:54


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 081152
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

...ETA INLAND OVER EAST-CENTRAL CUBA...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA, FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 79.1W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM SW OF CANAGUA CUBA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSE OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
including Florida Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should monitor
the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm Watches or
Warnings could be required for some of these areas on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located over Cuba near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 79.1 West. Eta
is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
toward the north and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected
later today and tonight, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of Eta will continue to move across
east-central Cuba during the next few hours and then move over the
Florida Straits later this morning. Eta is forecast to pass near or
over the Florida Keys tonight and early Monday, and be over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico late Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected during the
next few hours as Eta moves across Cuba. Re-strengthening is
forecast after the storm moves over the Atlantic Ocean, and Eta is
forecast to be near hurricane strength when it moves near or over
the Florida Keys.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals of
18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the
Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding is also
possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...2-3 ft
Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in the
northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys
this afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in
the hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba during the next few hours and in the watch area in
Florida by early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening through Monday
over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the north
coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will gradually
subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands and
Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-08 08:51


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 080849
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

Although Eta has a ragged and asymmetric appearance in satellite
and radar images, the cloud tops are quite cold with a lot of
embedded lightning strikes being detected in the northeastern
quadrant. The center is estimated to be very near the south coast
of central Cuba, with much of the thunderstorms over the island.
Since the storm has not changed much since last evening, the
initial intensity is held at 55 kt. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate Eta again later this morning once it
emerges off the north coast of Cuba.

Eta continues to move northeastward, but at a slightly slower pace
of 10 kt. The cyclone is now located just to the east or southeast
of a mid- to upper-level low. This feature and a broader trough over
the Gulf of Mexico should cause Eta to turn northward later this
morning and then northwestward this afternoon and evening. This
track should take the core of Eta across central Cuba during the
next couple of hours and then into the Straits of Florida. Eta is
forecast to pass over the Florida Keys tonight. After that time, a
slow westward motion is expected as the cyclone merges with the
trough over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Monday and Tuesday.
Later in the week, the steering currents weaken and Eta will likely
be drifting around over the Gulf of Mexico. The new NHC track
forecast is a little to the south, or left, of the previous one to
come into better agreement with the latest models.

The tropical storm is feeling some effects of southwesterly wind
shear and water vapor satellite images show a swath of dry air
entraining into the western side of the circulation. These factors
along with the interaction with the landmass of Cuba later this
morning should cause Eta to hold steady in strength or weaken a
little in the short term. The shear is expected to lessen when the
storm moves over the Straits of Florida, and that could allow Eta to
become more symmetric and strengthen, and it could become a
hurricane as it approaches the Florida Keys tonight. After the
cyclone passes the Keys and enters the Gulf of Mexico, there are
mixed signals in the models. Although the shear is expected to be
moderate while Eta passes over the warm waters of the Gulf of
Mexico Loop current, there will likely be drier air surrounding
the storm. As a compromise, the NHC intensity forecast shows Eta
holding relatively steady in strength for much of the forecast
period.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall from Eta will continue across portions of Cuba,
Jamaica, the Bahamas, and southern Florida and spread north into
central Florida. This rain may result in significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash
and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas
and southern Florida, along with potential minor river flooding in
central Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue today in
portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical Storm
Warnings are in effect.

3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin this
afternoon, with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys
and portions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical
Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across
portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the
risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's
center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.

4. A dangerous storm surge is possible along portions of the
southern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, where
a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watch
area should follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 21.5N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 23.0N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 24.5N 81.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 24.3N 83.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 24.2N 84.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 24.2N 85.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 24.6N 85.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 25.8N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 26.7N 84.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-08 08:49


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 080847
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

...ETA MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF CUBA...
...FORECAST TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 79.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM W OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
including Florida Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas
on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 79.3 West. Eta is moving
toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north
and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later today and
tonight, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will move across central Cuba during the
next few hours and then move into the Florida Straits later this
morning. Eta is forecast to pass near or over the Florida Keys
tonight and early Monday and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
late Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is possible during the next few hours as Eta
moves across Cuba, but the storm is forecast to be near hurricane
strength when it moves near or over the Florida Keys.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches (635 mm).

The Bahamas: an additional 4 to 8 inches (100 to 200 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Portions of the central and southern Florida peninsula, including
the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm), isolated maximum totals of
18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for Jamaica, the
Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor river flooding is also
possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...2-3 ft
Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in the
northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys
this afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in
the hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba during the next few hours and in the watch area in
Florida by early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening through Monday
over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the
north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and
the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will
gradually subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-08 08:48


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 080846
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0900 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO BONITA BEACH...INCLUDING
BISCAYNE BAY
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO BONITA BEACH
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS
ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE
* FLORIDA COAST FROM BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO ENGLEWOOD
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS
ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 79.3W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 79.3W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 79.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.0N 79.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...170NE 100SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.5N 81.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 100SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.3N 83.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 24.2N 84.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.2N 85.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.6N 85.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 25.8N 85.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 26.7N 84.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 79.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-11-08 05:41


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 080539
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 AM EST Sun Nov 08 2020

...ETA EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CUBA IN A FEW HOURS...
...FORECAST TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 79.8W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
including Florida Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas
on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 79.8 West. Eta is moving
toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north
and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected later today and
tonight, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba during the next few
hours and then move into the Florida Straits later this morning. Eta
is forecast to pass near or over south Florida and the Florida Keys
tonight and early Monday and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
on late Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is possible after landfall in Cuba, but Eta
is forecast to re-strengthen later today and could be near hurricane
strength as it approaches and moves near or over Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Thursday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 100 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches
(650 mm).

The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida
peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor to
isolated moderate river flooding is also possible for Central
Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...2-3 ft
Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the
warning areas in Cuba during the next several hours and in the
northwestern Bahamas through tonight. Tropical storm conditions
are expected to begin in south Florida and the Florida Keys
this afternoon or evening, and hurricane conditions are possible in
the hurricane watch area in Florida tonight and early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the tropical storm watch
area in Cuba during the next few hours and in the watch area in
Florida by early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur this evening and tonight over
south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the
north coast of Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, southern Florida and
the Florida Keys during the next couple of days. Swells will
gradually subside along the south coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands
and Jamaica later today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-08 04:02


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 080400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.11.2020

TROPICAL STORM ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 81.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.11.2020 0 19.7N 81.1W 999 31
1200UTC 08.11.2020 12 20.9N 79.5W 1000 34
0000UTC 09.11.2020 24 23.0N 79.5W 998 38
1200UTC 09.11.2020 36 24.4N 81.2W 998 35
0000UTC 10.11.2020 48 24.3N 84.1W 998 34
1200UTC 10.11.2020 60 23.4N 85.9W 997 29
0000UTC 11.11.2020 72 22.8N 86.0W 996 30
1200UTC 11.11.2020 84 23.2N 85.4W 996 36
0000UTC 12.11.2020 96 23.5N 85.6W 997 36
1200UTC 12.11.2020 108 22.9N 86.1W 999 34
0000UTC 13.11.2020 120 22.2N 86.8W 1000 29
1200UTC 13.11.2020 132 20.6N 88.3W 1002 26
0000UTC 14.11.2020 144 19.1N 90.9W 1003 29

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 8.3N 142.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.11.2020 0 8.3N 142.5W 1006 26
1200UTC 08.11.2020 12 8.4N 143.7W 1006 27
0000UTC 09.11.2020 24 8.5N 143.8W 1006 27
1200UTC 09.11.2020 36 8.4N 145.3W 1007 29
0000UTC 10.11.2020 48 9.2N 147.7W 1008 25
1200UTC 10.11.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 28.1N 45.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.11.2020 24 28.1N 45.5W 1011 26
1200UTC 09.11.2020 36 28.4N 42.3W 1008 29
0000UTC 10.11.2020 48 29.8N 38.7W 1005 32
1200UTC 10.11.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 32.8N 28.6E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.11.2020 48 32.8N 28.6E 1013 24
1200UTC 10.11.2020 60 33.3N 28.5E 1012 28
0000UTC 11.11.2020 72 33.9N 27.4E 1012 33
1200UTC 11.11.2020 84 33.2N 26.2E 1010 33
0000UTC 12.11.2020 96 32.5N 26.2E 1013 28
1200UTC 12.11.2020 108 31.9N 26.3E 1014 25
0000UTC 13.11.2020 120 31.5N 26.5E 1016 21
1200UTC 13.11.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 30.5N 33.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.11.2020 72 30.5N 33.5W 1002 36
1200UTC 11.11.2020 84 31.0N 30.5W 1001 34
0000UTC 12.11.2020 96 33.3N 26.5W 996 35
1200UTC 12.11.2020 108 35.3N 21.4W 992 44
0000UTC 13.11.2020 120 37.6N 16.9W 990 38
1200UTC 13.11.2020 132 38.1N 13.6W 993 35
0000UTC 14.11.2020 144 38.9N 9.8W 996 38

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 15.8N 72.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.11.2020 144 15.8N 72.0W 1005 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080359

>

2020-11-08 02:59


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 080256
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Eta has continued to
strengthen. An abbreviated mission found that the pressure had
dropped to 991 mb, with believable SFMR winds of 55 kt. Since the
plane left, the cloud pattern has not become better organized, and
perhaps some shear is affecting the cyclone. Thus, the initial wind
speed is kept at 55 kt.

The storm continues to move to the northeast tonight. While the
overall synoptic pattern remains the same, there has been a big
change to note with the track forecast, with a notable south and
west trend with almost all of the guidance on Sunday and beyond.
It appears that the system becomes more involved with a closed low
forming near western Cuba tomorrow, which causes a sharper and
faster left turn near the Florida Straits or Keys. The new NHC
forecast is shifted in that direction, but is well north of the bulk
of the guidance due to continuity concerns, and future southward
and faster shifts are possible. I should mention that even if the
forecast does shift farther south, tropical-storm-force winds will
likely cover much of the southern and central Florida peninsula due
to the expected growth of Eta. Beyond Florida, this one of those
times where the track uncertainty is much larger than normal, so
check back tomorrow for further updates as big long-range changes
are possible.

Eta is likely to maintain its intensity before landfall in Cuba,
then weaken somewhat due to the rugged terrain there. The storm
should re-intensify over the Florida Straits in moderate shear
conditions but with favorable forcing from the upper-level low. No
change has been made to the intensity forecast near Florida, and Eta
is likely to be near or at hurricane-strength there. Over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico, some dry air entrainment could briefly
cause some weakening, but the system is forecast to move very slowly
over the warm waters. In fact, a large portion of the guidance
actually show it re-gaining hurricane strength as it moves farther
away from any cooler shelf waters near Florida and sits over the
Loop Current. While it seems pre-mature to raise the forecast much
due to the large track uncertainty, the forecast is bumped up on
days 3-4, but is below the model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue across portions of Cuba and
Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and southern
Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding
will also be possible for Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern
Florida, along with potential minor to isolated moderate river
flooding in Central Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected tonight and Sunday in
portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical
Storm Warnings are in effect.

3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected to begin Sunday
afternoon, with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys
and portions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical
Storm Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across
portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the
risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's
center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.

4. A dangerous storm surge is possible along portions of the
southern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, where
a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watch
area should follow any advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 20.7N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 22.1N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
24H 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 09/1200Z 24.9N 81.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 25.0N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 25.0N 84.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 25.5N 84.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 26.0N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 27.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-08 02:57


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 080254
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

...ETA FORECAST TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND
STRONG WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA AND FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 79.9W
ABOUT 140 MI...220 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the East Coast of
Florida from north of Jupiter Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia County
line and for the West Coast of Florida from north of Bonita Beach
to Englewood.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the West Coast of
Florida from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Brevard/Volusia County line to Englewood
including Florida Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Englewood to Anna Maria Island.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, generally within 36
hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas
on Sunday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 79.9 West. Eta is moving
toward the northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north
and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected on Sunday and
Sunday night, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba tonight,
approach south Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, pass near or
over south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday and
be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is possible after landfall in Cuba
overnight, but Eta is forecast to re-strengthen later on
Sunday and could be near hurricane strength as it approaches and
moves near or over Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Thursday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10
inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches
(650 mm).

The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida
peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Minor to
isolated moderate river flooding is also possible for Central
Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...2-3 ft
Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas
in Cuba overnight and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday,
and in south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday and Sunday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
Florida Sunday night and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area in Cuba tonight and
in the watch area in Florida by early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday
night over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of Cuba, the northwestern
Bahamas, and southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next
couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-08 02:56


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 080254
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0300 UTC SUN NOV 08 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY
LINE AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH
TO ENGLEWOOD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO BONITA BEACH...INCLUDING
BISCAYNE BAY
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO BONITA BEACH
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS
ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE
* FLORIDA COAST FROM BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE TO ENGLEWOOD...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF ENGLEWOOD TO ANNA MARIA ISLAND.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS
ON SUNDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 79.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 30SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 79.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 80.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.1N 79.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...270NE 120SE 60SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.9N 81.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...210NE 120SE 60SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 25.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 26.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 27.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 79.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-11-07 23:50


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 072348
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

...ETA STRENGTHENING AND HEADING FOR CUBA...
...DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, FLASH FLOODS AND STRONG WINDS
EXPECTED...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 80.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM S OF MIAMI FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has discontinued
the Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including
Florida Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Jupiter Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia
county line
* Florida coast from north of Bonita Beach to Englewood

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 80.2 West. Eta has
recently jogged toward the east, but is expected to resume a motion
toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h) tonight. A turn toward
the north and northwest at a slower forward speed is expected on
Sunday and Sunday night, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba
tonight, approach south Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, pass
near or over south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday night and
Monday and be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible through Sunday
night, and Eta could be near hurricane strength as it approaches
Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.26 inches)
based on NOAA dropsonde data.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Thursday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10
inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches
(650 mm).

The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida
peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Isolated minor
river flooding is also possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...2-3 ft
Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas
in Cuba tonight and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday,
and in south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday and Sunday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
Florida Sunday night and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area in Cuba tonight and and
in the watch area in Florida by late Sunday or early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday
night over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-07 20:56


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 072054
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

An earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that
Eta had strengthened to 50 kt with a central pressure of 994 mb.
Since that time, the storm organization is unchanged in satellite
imagery, while the central convection looks a little more ragged in
radar data from Grand Cayman Island and Cuba. Eta is currently
being affected by 25-35 kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear,
and water vapor imagery shows upper-level dry air approaching the
inner core from the west.

The initial motion now 050/14. There is little change to the
forecast philosophy through the first 96 h of the forecast. A mid-
to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico should steer Eta
northeastward for the next 12 h or so, which would bring the
center near or over the coast of central Cuba. Then from 12-96 h,
the trough should cut off into a closed low near western Cuba, with
Eta turning northward and eventually westward near the Florida Keys
and south Florida as it merges with the low. The track guidance
has shifted a little to the west over Cuba and a little to the
south near Florida, possibly in response to data from the G-IV jet
mission earlier today, and the new track forecast does likewise.
The track guidance becomes quite divergent after 96 h, and the
96-120 h motion is now slower than the previous forecast as a
result.

The intensity forecast is tricky. Strong upper-level divergence
caused by the trough is allowing the cyclone to strengthen. However,
at some time in the next 24-48 h the shear and dry air entrainment
should prevent any further strengthening. The intensity guidance
shows a little intensification during the next 24-36 h with the bulk
of the guidance peaking near 60 kt. After that time, the dry air
should cause at least some weakening. The new intensity forecast is
increased a bit from the previous forecast to show a 60-kt
intensity at 24 and 36 h. This requires issuing a hurricane watch
for the Florida Keys and portions of south Florida.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions
of Cuba, and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and
southern Florida. This rain may result in significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash
and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands,
Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida, along with potential
minor river flooding in central Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions will continue for a few more hours in
portions of the Cayman Islands, and are expected tonight and Sunday
in portions of Cuba and the northwestern Bahamas, where Tropical
Storm Warnings are in effect.

3. Damaging tropical-storm-force winds are expected Sunday night,
with hurricane-force winds possible, in the Florida Keys and
portions of the southern Florida peninsula, where a Tropical Storm
Warning and Hurricane Watch are in effect. Elsewhere across
portions of the east and west coasts of the Florida peninsula, the
risk of tropical-storm-force winds will extend well away from Eta's
center, and Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings are in effect.

4. A life-threatening storm surge is possible along portions of the
southern coast of the Florida peninsula and the Florida Keys, where
a Storm Surge Watch is in effect. Residents in the Storm Surge Watch
area should follow any advice given by local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 20.4N 80.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 21.6N 79.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/1800Z 23.3N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 09/0600Z 24.7N 79.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 25.2N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 25.7N 82.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 26.1N 83.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 26.5N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 27.0N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-07 20:55


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 072053
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

...ETA MOVING AWAY FROM THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND TOWARD THE COAST OF
CENTRAL CUBA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND
THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 80.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for the coast of southern Florida
from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including Biscayne Bay, and for
the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, incuding
Florida Bay.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for the coast of southern Florida
from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach, and for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect from north of Golden Beach to
Jupiter Inlet, Florida, and west of Chokoloskee, Florida to Bonita
Beach, Florida, including Lake Okeechobee.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Bonita Beach, including
Biscayne Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to Bonita Beach
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas, including
Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Jupiter Inlet to Bonita Beach, including
Florida Bay
* Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida coast from north of Jupiter Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia
county line
* Florida coast from north of Bonita Beach to Englewood

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds,
conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas later
today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 80.7 West. Eta is moving
toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the north and
northwest at a slower forward speed is expected on Sunday and Sunday
night, followed by a westward motion on Monday. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will cross central Cuba tonight, approach
south Florida and the Florida Keys on Sunday, and pass near or over
south Florida and the Florida Keys Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible through Sunday night, and Eta could
be near hurricane strength as it approaches Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Thursday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10
inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches
(650 mm).

The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida
peninsula, including the Keys: 6 to 12 inches (150 to 300 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 18 inches (450 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida. Isolated minor
river flooding is also possible for Central Florida.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Bonita Beach, FL to Golden Beach, FL including Biscayne Bay...2-4 ft
Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas including Florida
Bay...2-4 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line to Altamaha Sound...2-3 ft
Golden Beach to Flagler/Volusia County Line...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
for a few more hours, as well as in the warning areas in Cuba
tonight and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and in
south Florida and the Florida Keys late Sunday and Sunday night.
Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area in
Florida Sunday night and Monday. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the tropical storm watch area in Cuba tonight and
Sunday and in the watch area in Florida by late Sunday or early
Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday
night over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-07 20:55


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 072053
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
2100 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA
FROM BONITA BEACH TO GOLDEN BEACH...INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY...AND FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF SOUTHERN FLORIDA
FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO BONITA BEACH...AND FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO
JUPITER INLET FLORIDA AND WEST OF CHOKOLOSKEE FLORIDA TO BONITA
BEACH FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE OKEECHOBEE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO BONITA BEACH...INCLUDING
BISCAYNE BAY
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA COAST FROM DEERFIELD BEACH TO BONITA BEACH
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS
ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE
* FLORIDA COAST FROM JUPITER INLET TO BONITA BEACH...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY
* FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF JUPITER INLET TO THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA
COUNTY LINE
* FLORIDA COAST FROM NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 80.7W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 80.7W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 81.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.6N 79.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.3N 79.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.7N 79.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 25.2N 81.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.7N 82.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.1N 83.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 80.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-11-07 18:02


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 071800
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Special Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

This special advisory is being issued to update the first 36 h of
the intensity forecast of Eta. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft found a better defined center north of the Cayman
Islands with flight-level and SFMR winds supporting an initial
intensity of 50 kt, along with a central pressure of 994 mb. The
updated intensity forecast shows a little more intensification
during the first 12 h, although it is unclear how much
intensification may occur due to strong vertical shear and
interaction with a developing upper-level low nearby.

No changes were made to the forecast track. The first 36 h of the
wind radii were adjusted for the new intensity forecast.

Note that this special advisory is being issued in lieu of the 100
PM EST (1800 UTC) intermediate advisory.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions
of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and
southern Florida. This rain may result in significant, life-
threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash
and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands,
Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected today and Sunday in
portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected by late Sunday in the
Florida Keys and along portions of the southeast Florida coast,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are possible elsewhere in portions of southern and
central Florida beginning Sunday night, where a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect. Additional Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be
needed later today.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1800Z 20.0N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-07 18:01


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 071759
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Special Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ETA HAS
STRENGTHENED SOME MORE...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 81.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including
Florida Bay
* The Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth
* Florida east coast north of Golden Beach Florida to the
Brevard/Volusia county line
* Florida west coast north of Chokoloskee to Englewood
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas later
today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 81.1 West. Eta is moving
toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east-northeast to
northeast motion is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward
the north and northwest are expected by Sunday afternoon. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will move away from the Cayman
Islands later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and
near the Florida Keys or south Florida Sunday night and Monday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph
(95 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is
expected through Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Thursday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10
inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches
(650 mm).

The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida
peninsula, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Florida Keys...2-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-3 ft
North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
this afternoon and evening, in the warning area sin Cuba tonight
and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and in south
Florida and the Florida Keys late Sunday and Sunday night.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba
tonight and Sunday and in the watch area in Florida by late Sunday
or early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday
night over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-07 18:00


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 071758
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
1800 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS.
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS
ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE
* FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH
* FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH FLORIDA TO THE
BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 81.1W AT 07/1800Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 81.1W AT 07/1800Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 83.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 81.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-11-07 16:17


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 071614 CCA
TCUAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1100 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

Corrected storm type header

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND STRONGER WINDS
IN ETA...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds in Eta have increased to 50 mph.
The plane is still investigating Eta at this time. If it finds
stronger winds, a special advisory may be required during the next
hour or two.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 81.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-07 16:05


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 071603
TCUAT4

Hurricane Eta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1100 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND STRONGER WINDS
IN ETA...

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds in Eta have increased to 50 mph.
The plane is still investigating Eta at this time. If it finds
stronger winds, a special advisory may be required during the next
hour or two.

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EST...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 81.5W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM NNW OF GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-07 16:00


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 071559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.11.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 83.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.11.2020 18.1N 83.0W WEAK
00UTC 08.11.2020 19.3N 81.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.11.2020 20.1N 79.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2020 21.3N 78.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2020 23.2N 80.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.11.2020 23.6N 81.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2020 24.2N 83.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2020 24.5N 84.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.11.2020 24.2N 84.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.11.2020 24.5N 83.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.11.2020 23.6N 82.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.11.2020 22.9N 83.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.11.2020 20.5N 84.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 8.9N 143.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.11.2020 8.9N 143.8W WEAK
00UTC 09.11.2020 8.6N 143.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2020 8.4N 145.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.11.2020 9.1N 147.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2020 9.5N 149.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 28.0N 43.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.11.2020 28.0N 43.6W WEAK
00UTC 10.11.2020 28.4N 40.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2020 28.8N 38.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2020 29.2N 37.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.11.2020 29.8N 35.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.11.2020 31.1N 32.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.11.2020 32.1N 30.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.11.2020 33.1N 26.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.11.2020 34.0N 23.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071559

>

2020-11-07 15:18


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 071515 CCA
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020

CORRECTED FORMATTING OF INITIAL 34 KT WINDS.

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FROM
GOLDEN BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL
AS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIEN INLET TO THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS.
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS
ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
* FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
* FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH FLORIDA TO THE
BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 81.8W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 81.8W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 83.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 81.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-11-07 15:03


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 071501
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

Satellite imagery and surface data indicate that Eta has become a
little better organized this morning, with the center re-forming to
the northeast near an area of deep convection. Surface
observations from Grand Cayman Island show that the system has
regained tropical-storm strength, and the initial intensity is
increased to 35 kt.

The initial motion is uncertain dur to the reformation, with the
best estimate of 055/15. This general motion should continue for
the next 24 h or so as Eta is steered by a mid- to upper-level
trough over the Gulf of Mexico. From 24-96 h, the trough is
forecast to become a cut-off low, and Eta is expected to turn
northward, northeastward, and eventually westward as it merges with
the low. There remains some spread in the guidance in just where
these turns will occur and how close the center will come to south
Florida and the Florida Keys. This part of the new track is nudged
just a little north of the previous track. After 96 h, Eta should
move slowly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico, with the forecast
track showing a northward motion as a compromise of the
poorly-agreeing guidance.

Although the storm is experiencing moderate to strong southwesterly
shear, strong upper-level divergence caused by the trough should
allow strengthening through about 48 h, although the cyclone may
acquire some subtropical characteristics as it merges with the
baroclinic system. After that time, dry air entrainment is likely
to cause Eta to slowly weaken through the remainder of the forecast
period. The new intensity forecast is unchanged from the old
forecast.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for south
Florida and the Florida Keys at this time.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall will continue across the Cayman Islands, portions
of Cuba and Jamaica, and will spread north into the Bahamas and
southern Florida. This rain may result in significant,
life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in Cuba. Flash
and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman Islands,
Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected today and Sunday in
portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the northwestern Bahamas,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected by late Sunday in the
Florida Keys and along portions of the southeast Florida coast,
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. Tropical storm
conditions are possible elsewhere in portions of southern and
central Florida beginning Sunday night, where a Tropical Storm Watch
is in effect. Additional Tropical Storm Warnings will likely be
needed later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 19.6N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-07 15:02


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 071500
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

...ETA REGAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS THE CENTER REFORMS TO
THE NORTHEAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA
KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 81.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WNW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM WSW OF CAMAGUEY CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for south Florida from
Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including Florida Bay, as well as
for the Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect along the Florida east
coast north of Sebastien Inlet to the Brevard/Volusia county line.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida west coast
north of Bonita Beach to Englewood.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.
* Florida coast from Golden Beach to Chokoloskee, including
Florida Bay.
* The Florida Keys from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa, Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth.
* Florida east coast north of Golden Beach Florida to the
Brevard/Volusia county line
* Florida west coast north of Chokoloskee to Englewood
* Lake Okeechobee

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas later
today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 81.8 West. Eta is moving
toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east-northeast to
northeast motion is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward
the north and northwest are expected by Sunday afternoon. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will approach the Cayman Islands
later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and near the
Florida Keys or south Florida Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center. Grand Cayman Island recently reported estimated
sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on observations from
Grand Cayman Island is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Thursday morning:

Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10
inches (200 to 400 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 25 inches
(650 mm).

The Bahamas and portions of the central and southern Florida
peninsula, including the Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

Significant, life-threatening flash and river flooding will be
possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of higher terrain.
Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Florida Keys...2-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-3 ft
North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
this afternoon and evening, in the warning area sin Cuba tonight
and Sunday, in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, and in south
Florida and the Florida Keys late Sunday and Sunday night.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba
tonight and Sunday and in the watch area in Florida by late Sunday
or early Monday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday
night over south Florida and the Keys

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-07 15:02


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 071459
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
1500 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTH FLORIDA FROM
GOLDEN BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY...AS WELL
AS FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST NORTH OF SEBASTIEN INLET TO THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST
NORTH OF BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS.
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS
ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.
* FLORIDA COAST FROM GOLDEN BEACH TO CHOKOLOSKEE...INCLUDING
FLORIDA BAY.
* THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA...MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
* FLORIDA EAST COAST NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH FLORIDA TO THE
BREVARD/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE
* FLORIDA WEST COAST NORTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE TO ENGLEWOOD
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 81.8W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 81.8W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 83.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 80.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.5N 79.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.8N 79.3W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 80.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.8N 81.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.2N 83.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 28.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 81.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-11-07 11:52


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 071150
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

...ETA CONTINUES MOVING TOWARD THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 84.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth.
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Keys
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 84.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 13 mph (21
km/h). An east-northeast to northeast motion at a faster forward
speed is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the north and
northwest are expected by Sunday afternoon. On the forecast track,
the center of Eta will approach the Cayman Islands later today, be
near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and near the Florida Keys or
south Florida Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today,
with further strengthening likely through Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Thursday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125
mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern
Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated storm totals of 25 inches (650 mm).

The Bahamas and portions of the Florida peninsula, including the
Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15
inches (380 mm).

The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across
portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash and river
flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Florida Keys...2-3 ft
North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
this afternoon and evening, in the warning area in Cuba tonight
and Sunday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight and
Sunday and in the watch area in south Florida and the Florida Keys
by late Sunday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday
night over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-07 08:58


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 070856
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

Satellite images show a large area of deep convection associated
with Eta, but there is not much organization to the thunderstorm
activity. An ASCAT-A pass from several hours ago showed that the
circulation of Eta has become a little better defined, and the
center was located a fair distance to the west-southwest of what was
previously analyzed. The pass also showed that Eta has not
strengthened to a tropical storm yet, with the maximum winds in the
25-30 kt range. Based on that data, and a blend of the latest
Dvorak classifications, the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

After adjusting the initial position, the estimated motion is a
little slower to the east-northeast than before, 060/9 kt. It
should be noted that some of the models show the center re-forming
to the northeast later today, which is possible given the
depression's convective asymmetry. Regardless of these details,
the large scale track forecast reasoning is unchanged. A continued
east-northeast to northeast motion is expected during the next
day or two as Eta moves in the flow on the east side of a mid- to
upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico. This motion should take
Eta near or to the west of the Cayman Islands later today and over
central Cuba tonight and Sunday. After that time, the mid- to
upper-level low is expected to cut off over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico or the Florida Straits. As a result, Eta will pivot around
the low, which should cause a slow down and a turn to the north and
then the northwest toward the Florida Keys and south Florida Sunday
night and Monday. As Eta merges with the upper low, a slower motion
to the northwest or north is forecast across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico by the middle of next week. The NHC track forecast lies
between the GFS and ECMWF models, and is quite similar to the
previous one.

Eta is expected to gradually strengthen on its approach to Cuba as
it remains over warm waters and in an region of upper-level
diffluence. However, by the time Eta reaches Cuba, the models show
an increase in southwesterly wind shear and drier air being drawn
into the circulation. These factors should cause Eta to level off
in strength, and likely become asymmetric. When Eta interacts and
merges with the upper low, it will likely take on a subtropical
appearance and develop a large wind field near southern Florida.
The storm is forecast to slowly weaken when it passes to the west
of Florida as it moves in a drier environment. The NHC intensity
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies near the
high end of the model guidance.

Based on the new forecast, the government of the Bahamas has issued
a Tropical Storm Warning for the northwestern Bahamas. In
addition, the Tropical Storm Watch along the east coast of Florida
has been extended northward.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America,
although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta
will continue across the Cayman Islands and portions of Cuba,
resulting in significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding in Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas and southern Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected later today and Sunday in
portions of the Cayman Islands, Cuba, and the northwestern
Bahamas, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

3. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Florida Keys and
portions of south and central Florida beginning late Sunday, where
a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect. Tropical Storm Warnings could
be required for these areas later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 18.3N 84.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 19.3N 82.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 20.7N 80.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 22.6N 80.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0600Z 23.8N 80.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 09/1800Z 24.9N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 25.5N 83.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 26.0N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 27.3N 85.0W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-07 08:45


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 070843
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Sat Nov 07 2020

...ETA FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.3N 84.9W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch
to a Tropical Storm Warning for the northwestern Bahamas.

The Tropical Storm Watch along the east coast of Florida has been
extended northward to Sebastian Inlet.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth.
* Sebastian Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Keys
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches or Warnings could be required for some of these areas later
today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 84.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 10 mph (17
km/h). An east-northeast to northeast motion at a faster forward
speed is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the north and
northwest are expected by Sunday afternoon. On the forecast track,
the center of Eta will approach the Cayman Islands later today, be
near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and near the Florida Keys or
south Florida Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today,
with further strengthening likely through Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Thursday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125
mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern
Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Jamaica: An additional 2 to 4 inches (50 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: an additional 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated storm totals of 25 inches (650 mm).

The Bahamas and portions of the Florida peninsula, including the
Keys: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15
inches (380 mm).

The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across
portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash and river
flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the Bahamas, and Southern Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of Cuba
near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Florida Keys...2-3 ft
North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
this afternoon and evening, in the warning area in Cuba tonight
and Sunday, and in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible in the watch area in Cuba tonight and
Sunday and in the watch area in south Florida and the Florida Keys
by late Sunday.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two may occur Sunday evening and Sunday
night over south Florida and the Keys.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-07 08:45


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 070842
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0900 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS UPGRADED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO SEBASTIAN INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS.
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS
ISLAND...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA Y MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
* SEBASTIAN INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA KEYS
* FLORIDA BAY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 84.9W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 84.9W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 85.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.3N 82.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.7N 80.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.6N 80.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.8N 80.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.9N 81.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 83.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 26.0N 84.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 27.3N 85.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 84.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-11-07 05:43


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 070541
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1200 AM CST Sat Nov 07 2020

...ETA FORECAST TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE CAYMAN ISLANDS LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 85.7W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth.
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Keys
* Florida Bay
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches could be required for some of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), satellite data indicate that the the
center of Tropical Depression Eta was located near latitude 17.9
North, longitude 85.7 West. The depression is moving toward the
northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A northeastward motion at a faster
forward speed is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the
north and northwest are expected by Sunday afternoon. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will approach the Cayman Islands
later today, be near central Cuba tonight and Sunday, and near the
Florida Keys or south Florida late Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today,
with further strengthening likely through Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125
mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern
Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400
mm), isolated maximum totals of 25 inches (650 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380
mm).

The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across
portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash and river
flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas, and
southern Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Florida Keys...2-3 ft
North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
this afternoon and evening, and in the warning area in Cuba tonight
and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch
area in Cuba tonight and Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are also
possible in the northwestern Bahamas, south Florida, and the Florida
Keys within the watch area beginning Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-07 04:00


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 070359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.11.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 85.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.11.2020 0 17.6N 85.6W 1003 27
1200UTC 07.11.2020 12 17.6N 83.7W 1004 29
0000UTC 08.11.2020 24 18.9N 80.9W 1001 28
1200UTC 08.11.2020 36 19.8N 80.1W 1001 32
0000UTC 09.11.2020 48 20.5N 78.0W 1002 30
1200UTC 09.11.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 8.8N 143.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.11.2020 36 8.8N 144.1W 1007 25
0000UTC 09.11.2020 48 8.6N 144.8W 1003 33
1200UTC 09.11.2020 60 8.5N 146.5W 1006 33
0000UTC 10.11.2020 72 9.1N 149.0W 1007 27
1200UTC 10.11.2020 84 9.5N 151.4W 1009 26
0000UTC 11.11.2020 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 31.2N 29.0E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.11.2020 36 31.0N 28.6E 1009 27
0000UTC 09.11.2020 48 30.7N 28.9E 1012 23
1200UTC 09.11.2020 60 31.7N 29.0E 1013 21
0000UTC 10.11.2020 72 33.1N 28.4E 1011 25
1200UTC 10.11.2020 84 34.1N 27.4E 1009 31
0000UTC 11.11.2020 96 33.4N 26.0E 1007 35
1200UTC 11.11.2020 108 32.6N 25.8E 1008 33
0000UTC 12.11.2020 120 31.9N 26.7E 1010 31
1200UTC 12.11.2020 132 31.7N 27.6E 1010 28
0000UTC 13.11.2020 144 31.4N 27.9E 1012 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 22.6N 79.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.11.2020 72 23.5N 80.4W 1000 38
1200UTC 10.11.2020 84 24.7N 82.7W 1000 32
0000UTC 11.11.2020 96 25.2N 84.4W 999 27
1200UTC 11.11.2020 108 24.7N 85.1W 1000 22
0000UTC 12.11.2020 120 23.5N 84.1W 1001 26
1200UTC 12.11.2020 132 22.0N 83.1W 1002 26
0000UTC 13.11.2020 144 20.8N 83.4W 1002 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 27.4N 40.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.11.2020 72 27.4N 40.5W 1007 28
1200UTC 10.11.2020 84 28.7N 37.5W 1006 34
0000UTC 11.11.2020 96 29.0N 36.1W 1003 37
1200UTC 11.11.2020 108 29.7N 34.4W 999 42
0000UTC 12.11.2020 120 31.7N 31.6W 996 39
1200UTC 12.11.2020 132 33.2N 27.4W 992 44
0000UTC 13.11.2020 144 35.2N 21.8W 987 46

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 18.5N 100.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.11.2020 144 18.5N 100.8W 1006 17


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070359

>

2020-11-07 04:00


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 070359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.11.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.6N 85.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.11.2020 17.6N 85.6W WEAK
12UTC 07.11.2020 17.6N 83.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2020 18.9N 80.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.11.2020 19.8N 80.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2020 20.5N 78.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 8.8N 143.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.11.2020 8.8N 144.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.11.2020 8.6N 144.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2020 8.5N 146.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.11.2020 9.1N 149.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2020 9.5N 151.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 31.2N 29.0E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.11.2020 31.0N 28.6E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.11.2020 30.7N 28.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2020 31.7N 29.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.11.2020 33.1N 28.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2020 34.1N 27.4E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2020 33.4N 26.0E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.11.2020 32.6N 25.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.11.2020 31.9N 26.7E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.11.2020 31.7N 27.6E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.11.2020 31.4N 27.9E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 22.6N 79.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.11.2020 23.5N 80.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 10.11.2020 24.7N 82.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2020 25.2N 84.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.11.2020 24.7N 85.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.11.2020 23.5N 84.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.11.2020 22.0N 83.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.11.2020 20.8N 83.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 27.4N 40.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.11.2020 27.4N 40.5W WEAK
12UTC 10.11.2020 28.7N 37.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2020 29.0N 36.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.11.2020 29.7N 34.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.11.2020 31.7N 31.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.11.2020 33.2N 27.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.11.2020 35.2N 21.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 18.5N 100.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.11.2020 18.5N 100.8W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070358

>

2020-11-07 02:55


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 070253
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that flew a tail-Doppler radar
mission earlier this evening reported that Eta's circulation
remained elongated, and that there had not been any significant
increase in winds since this afternoon. There has been some increase
in deep convection near and to the east of the estimated center, but
there has been little overall change in organization. Therefore, the
initial intensity remains 30 kt for this advisory.

Eta is expected to strengthen over the next 24 to 48 hours while it
moves over warm waters and within an area of strong upper-level
divergence to the southeast of a mid- to upper-level trough over the
Gulf of Mexico. Eta's structure is likely to take on
characteristics of a subtropical cyclone as it merges with the
cutoff low late Sunday and Monday. As this occurs, Eta's wind field
is expected to increase in size. By 72 hours and beyond, dry air
entrainment is likely to cause some weakening. The new NHC intensity
forecast is close to the previous one.

Eta is moving toward northeastward at a faster forward speed of
around 10 kt. An additional increase in forward speed should occur
overnight as Eta moves northeastward around the southeastern portion
of a developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico.
This feature should continue to steer Eta northeastward during the
next 24 hours, but after that time the trough is forecast to
cut-off, with Eta turning northward, and then northwestward around
and into the mid- to upper-level closed low. The merged system is
likely to move northwestward or northward later in the period. The
latest runs of the dynamical models have trended toward a more
northward track on Sunday and Monday with some of them showing a
track near or over the southern portion of the Florida peninsula in
48 to 60 hours. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
slightly northward during that time and lies between the TVCA
multi-model consensus and the HFIP corrected consensus aid. Since
Eta's wind field is forecast to expand when it moves north of Cuba,
tropical-storm-force winds are expected to cover a large area to the
north and northeast of the center regardless of the exact track of
the center.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Watch for the
northwestern Bahamas, the southern Florida peninsula, and the
Florida Keys. Additional watches for the Florida peninsula may be
required overnight or on Saturday morning.

Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America,
although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta
will move into the Cayman islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in
significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding in
Cuba. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for the Cayman
Islands, Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas and Southern
Florida.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected this weekend in portions
of the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and
urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern
Florida, the Florida Keys, and portions of the Bahamas this weekend
and early next week. Tropical Storm Watches have been issued for
portions of these areas and additional watches may be required
overnight or on Saturday morning.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 18.0N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 19.0N 83.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 20.3N 81.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 21.9N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 09/0000Z 24.0N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 09/1200Z 25.0N 81.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 25.2N 82.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 26.0N 84.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 27.0N 84.7W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-07 02:54


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 070252
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

...ETA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS,
SOUTHERN FLORIDA, AND THE FLORIDA KEYS...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.0N 85.2W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the coast of South
Florida from Jupiter Inlet southward on the east coast and from
Bonita Beach southward on the west coast, including Lake Okeechobee.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Keys from
Ocean Reef southward to the Dry Tortugas, including Florida Bay.

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth.
* Jupiter Inlet southward around the Florida peninsula to Bonita
Beach
* Lake Okeechobee
* Florida Keys
* Florida Bay
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba and the Florida peninsula should
monitor the progress of this system as additional Tropical Storm
Watches could be required for some of these areas on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 18.0 North, longitude 85.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through
early Sunday. A turn toward the north and northwest are expected
Sunday afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will
move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight, approach the
Cayman Islands Saturday, be near central Cuba Saturday night and
Sunday, and approach the Florida Keys or south Florida late Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again overnight, with
further strengthening likely through Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125
mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern
Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400
mm), isolated maximum totals of 25 inches (650 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380
mm).

The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across
portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash and river
flooding will be possible in Cuba, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Flash and urban flooding will also be possible for
the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Bahamas, and
southern Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally
dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving
inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following
heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak
surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Marco Island, FL to North Miami Beach, FL including Biscayne
Bay...2-3 ft
Florida Keys...2-3 ft
North Miami Beach, FL to Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas
of onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
Saturday afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, and
they are possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and
Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the northwestern
Bahamas, south Florida, and the Florida Keys within the watch area
beginning Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, the southern coast of
Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, and southern Florida and the
Florida Keys during the next couple of days. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-07 02:54


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 070252
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0300 UTC SAT NOV 07 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COAST OF SOUTH
FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST AND FROM
BONITA BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE WEST COAST...INCLUDING LAKE
OKEECHOBEE.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...
BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA Y MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
* JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD AROUND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO BONITA
BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE
* FLORIDA KEYS
* FLORIDA BAY
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...
BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW
PROVIDENCE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN
THOSE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPRESSION.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 85.2W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 85.2W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 85.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 83.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.3N 81.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.9N 79.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...160NE 90SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.0N 79.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 81.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 150SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.2N 82.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 84.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 27.0N 84.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 85.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-11-06 23:51


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 062349
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
600 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

...DISORGANIZED ETA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND
CUBA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.7N 85.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida
Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this
system as Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required for
some of these areas tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 85.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected through
early Sunday. A turn toward the north and northwest are expected
late Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight, approach the Cayman
Islands Saturday, be near central Cuba Saturday night and Sunday,
and approach the Florida Keys or south Florida late Sunday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta is
forecast to become a tropical storm again tonight, with further
strengthening likely through early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125
mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern
Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400
mm), isolated maximum totals of 25 inches (650 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380
mm).

The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across
portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash
flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica, southeast
Mexico, the Bahamas and Southern Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
Saturday afternoon and evening. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, and
they are possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and
Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of
Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-06 21:01


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 062059
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that the center of Eta is elongated east-to-west with
multiple vorticity centers present. The central pressure is near
1002 mb, and the maximum flight-level winds were 30-35 kt at 1500
ft. There were a few spot reports of 35-45 kt winds from the
Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer, but these were in areas of
heavy rain and their reliability is suspect. Based on these data,
the initial intensity is kept at 30 kt.

The aircraft data shows that the center is farther south than
previously thought, and the initial motion is an uncertain 040/6 kt.
There is no change to the previous track forecast philosophy. A
developing mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is
expected to steer Eta northeastward for the next 48 h or so with an
increase in forward speed. Between 48-72 h, the trough is forecast
to become a closed low near south Florida and western Cuba, causing
Eta to turn northwestward around and into the low. After 72 h, the
merged system is likely to move slowly westward to northwestward.
While the guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic evolution,
there remain differences in the track forecast details in terms of
both the heading and the forward speed, with the GFS-based guidance
tending to be to the east and north of the UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian. In
addition, the HWRF/HMON/Canadian are faster than the other guidance.
The new forecast track overall is a little slower than the previous
track, and due to the initial position the first 36 h have been
shifted southward.

Eta will move over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean
during the next 48 h or so, and the upper-level divergence is
forecast to be quite strong. This should allow some strengthening,
although this is likely to be slowed by 20-30 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast for this part of the
cyclone's life is again similar to the previous forecast and lies
near the bulk of the intensity guidance. Between 48-72 h , Eta may
take on at least some subtropical cyclone characteristics as it
merges with the mid- to upper-level low. The HWRF and HMON models
still suggest the possibility that a tight inner wind core may
develop, however, the guidance has trended weaker since this
morning, and the new intensity forecast is above the bulk of the
guidance. After 72 h, dry air entrainment is expected to cause the
cyclone to weaken.

The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the
next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of
tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and southern Florida.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for
portions of Cuba at this time. Watches may be required for
portions of south Florida and the Florida Keys tonight.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rainfall is diminishing across portions of Central America,
although the threat of life-threatening flooding may continue, along
with landslides in areas of higher terrain. Heavy rainfall from Eta
will move into the Cayman islands and portions of Cuba, resulting in
significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding.
Flash flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica and
southeast Mexico.

2. Tropical storm conditions are expected this weekend in portions
of the Cayman Islands and Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and
urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern
Florida, the Florida Keys, and portions of the Bahamas this weekend
and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely
be issued for a portion of this area tonight.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 17.3N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 18.2N 84.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 19.4N 82.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 20.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 22.5N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0600Z 24.2N 80.6W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 09/1800Z 24.9N 81.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 25.0N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 26.5N 85.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-06 20:56


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 062054
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THE CENTER OF
ETA FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 86.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM E OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 375 MI...600 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the
provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, and Matanzas.

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of La Habana, Artemisa y Mayabeque, Pinar del
Rio, and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida
Keys, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this
system as Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required for
some of these areas tonight or on Saturday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 86.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
northeastward motion at a faster forward speed is expected trough
early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move
across the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight and Friday, approach
the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near central or western Cuba
Saturday night and Sunday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm
again this tonight, with further strengthening likely through
early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to 125
mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in eastern
Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 8 to 16 inches (200 to 400
mm), isolated maximum totals of 25 inches (650 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380
mm).

The threat of life-threatening flooding will continue across
portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash
flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica, southeast
Mexico, the Bahamas and Southern Florida.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Cuba near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the warning area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday, and
they are possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and
Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of
Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-06 20:56


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 062054
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
2100 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...AND MATANZAS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF LA HABANA...ARTEMISA Y MAYABEQUE...PINAR
DEL RIO...AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN
THOSE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPRESSION.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE FLORIDA
KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR
SOME OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 86.5W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 86.5W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 87.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.2N 84.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.4N 82.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 20.8N 80.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.5N 80.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.2N 80.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.9N 81.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 25.0N 84.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 86.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-11-06 17:54


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 061752
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1200 PM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT APPROACHING ETA...
...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 86.9W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM ENE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...10 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana,
Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida
Keys and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this
system as Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required for
some of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 86.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph (10
km/h). A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are
expected this afternoon, with this motion continuing through early
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across
the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, approach the Cayman Islands
Saturday, and be near central or western Cuba Saturday night and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again this
afternoon or tonight, with further strengthening likely through
early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to
255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches
(380 mm).

This rainfall will continue catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico. Flash and urban flooding is possible across
the Bahamas and Southern Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of
Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-06 15:02


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 061500
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that Eta is producing organized
convection in a large band over its northern and eastern
quadrants, with the center located just off the coast of Belize
near the western end of the band. These data, along with surface
observations, also show that the circulation is elongated. The
initial intensity remains 30 kt in agreement with a satellite
intensity estimate from TAFB. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta this afternoon,
and a NOAA flight is scheduled for this evening.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 025/6 kt. A developing
mid- to upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico is expected to
steer Eta northeastward for the next 48 h or so with an increase in
forward speed. Between 48-72 h, the trough is forecast to become a
closed low near south Florida and western Cuba, with Eta expected
to turn northwestward around and into the low. After 72 h, the
merged system is likely to move slowly west-northwestward. While
the guidance is in good agreement on the synoptic evolution, there
are a lot of differences in the track forecast details in terms of
both the heading and the forward speed, with the GFS-based guidance
tending to be to the east and north of the UKMET/ECMWF/Canadian.
Overall, the consensus models have shifted a little to the east and
north since the last advisory, and the new forecast track is also
nudged in those directions.

Eta will move over the warm waters of the northwestern Caribbean
during the next 48 h or so, and the upper-level divergence is
forecast to be quite strong. This should allow some strengthening,
although this is likely to be slowed by 20-30 kt of southwesterly
vertical wind shear. The intensity forecast for this part of the
cyclone's life is similar to the previous forecast and lies a bit
below the bulk of the intensity guidance. Between 48-72 h , Eta may
take on at least some subtropical cyclone characteristics as it
merges with the mid- to upper-level low. During this process, some
of the guidance suggests the possibility that a tight inner wind
core may develop. There is a chance that during this time that Eta
could regain hurricane strength, although this would be an intensity
above the current guidance. After 72 h, dry air entrainment is
expected to cause the cyclone to weaken.

The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the
next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of
tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and southern Florida.

The new forecast track requires a Tropical Storm Warning for the
Cayman Islands at this time, and a Tropical Storm Watch for
portions of Cuba. Watches may be required for portions of south
Florida and the Florida Keys later today or tonight.


Key Messages:

1. Rainfall associated with Eta will continue to result in
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Significant, life-threatening flash flooding and
river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Flash
flooding and urban flooding is also possible for Jamaica and
southeast Mexico.

2. This weekend Eta is expected to bring tropical storm conditions
to portions of the Cayman Islands, where a Tropical Storm Warning is
in effect. Tropical storm conditions possible in portions of western
and central Cuba, where a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect.

3. There is an increasing risk of impacts from wind and flash and
urban flooding due to heavy rainfall in portions of southern
Florida, the Florida Keys and portions of the Bahamas this weekend
and early next week. Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches will likely
be issued later today or tonight for a portion of this area.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 17.8N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 18.6N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 19.7N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 21.0N 81.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 22.7N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 09/0000Z 24.1N 80.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 09/1200Z 25.0N 81.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 25.5N 84.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 26.5N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-06 14:58


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 061455
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS AND PORTIONS OF CUBA...
...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 87.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF BELIZE CITY
ABOUT 395 MI...635 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Cayman Islands has issued a
Tropical Storm Warning for the Cayman Islands.

The Government of Cuba has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the
provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus, Villa
Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana, Pinar
del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cuban provinces of Camaguey, Ciego de Avila, Sancti Spiritus,
Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Matanzas, La Habana, Ciudad de la Habana,
Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests elsewhere in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, the Florida
Keys and southern Florida should monitor the progress of this
system as Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required for
some of these areas later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 87.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph
(11 km/h). A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed
are expected later today, with this motion continuing through early
Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta will move across
the northwestern Caribbean Sea today, approach the Cayman Islands
Saturday, and be near central or western Cuba Saturday night and
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today,
with further strengthening likely through early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to
255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches
(380 mm).

This rainfall will continue catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico. Flash and urban flooding is possible across
the Bahamas and Southern Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
late Saturday and Saturday night. Tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area in Cuba Saturday night and Sunday.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of
Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-06 14:57


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 061455
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
1500 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI SPIRITUS...VILLA
CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA
HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...CIEGO DE AVILA...SANCTI
SPIRITUS...VILLA CLARA...CIENFUEGOS...MATANZAS...LA HABANA...CIUDAD
DE LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN
THOSE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPRESSION.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...THE
FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES COULD BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 87.0W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 87.0W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 87.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.6N 85.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.7N 83.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 21.0N 81.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.7N 79.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.1N 80.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 81.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.5N 84.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 87.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-11-06 11:42


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 061139
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
600 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHWARD OFF OF THE COAST OF BELIZE...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 87.3W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE
ABOUT 410 MI...660 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys and
southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as
Tropical Storm Watches could be required for some of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 87.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 7 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected later today, with this motion
continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today,
approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near Cuba Saturday
night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today,
with further strengthening likely through early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to
255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380
mm).

This rainfall will continue catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico. Flash flooding is possible across the Bahamas
and Southern Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands
Saturday or Saturday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of
Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-06 08:38


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 060836
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

Although satellite images and surface observations suggest that the
circulation of Eta is elongated, deep convection has been increasing
near and over the center during the past several hours.
Unfortunately, the ASCAT scatterometer missed the region where Eta
is located, so there has not been much additional data to analyze
the structure and intensity of the cyclone. The initial wind speed
is held at 30 kt based on a 2.0/30 kt Dvorak classification from
TAFB. The NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to
investigate Eta later today, and that data will be helpful in
analyzing the cyclone.

The depression is moving northward at 7 kt. Eta is forecast to turn
northeastward later today, and accelerate slightly in that direction
through Saturday in response to a mid- to upper-level trough that is
expected to slide southeastward across the Gulf of Mexico. This
motion should take Eta to the west of the Cayman Islands on Saturday
and then across Cuba Saturday night or Sunday. Around the time Eta
is forecast to be near Cuba, the models show the storm slowing down
and turning northwestward or westward as the trough cuts off, and
Eta pivots around the north side of that cut off low. This change
in the storm motion should bring Eta near or over the Florida Keys
and south Florida late in the weekend and early next week. The
details in the location and timing of where Eta and the mid- to
upper-level low interact will be very important to the exact track
of Eta for south Florida and the Florida Keys. The new track
forecast is a touch to the north of the previous one when Eta is
expected to be near Florida, to be in better agreement with the
latest consensus aids.

The cyclone is currently over warm water, in a moist environment,
and will be moving into a region of upper-level diffluence as it
tracks across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. These conditions
should allow for thunderstorms to organize near the center and for
the cyclone to gradually intensify during the next couple of days.
However, rapid intensification seems unlikely given the broad
structure of Eta. The models show an increase in shear and some
dry air entraining into the circulation around the time it nears
Cuba this weekend, which in combination with land interaction could
limit additional strengthening by then. The intensity forecast for
the 72-120 hour period is more complicated as it will depend on the
trough interaction mentioned above. Most of the intensity models
show Eta holding steady in strength after its passage over Cuba,
and the NHC forecast does the same.

The wind field of Eta is expected to increase in size during the
next few days, and the cyclone will likely produce a large area of
tropical-storm-force winds on its north side when it is near Cuba,
the Florida Keys, and southern Florida.


Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea later today. Although the details of
the future track and intensity of Eta are still uncertain, there is
an increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of
the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys and
the northwestern Bahamas this weekend and early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 17.3N 87.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.0N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 20.2N 82.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 21.8N 80.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 23.5N 79.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 24.6N 80.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 25.1N 83.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 25.9N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-06 08:38


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 060836
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 87.4W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM NNW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
ABOUT 430 MI...690 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys and
southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as
Tropical Storm Watches could be required for some of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 87.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected later today, with this motion
continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today,
approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near Cuba Saturday
night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today,
with further strengthening likely through early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Wednesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to
255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

The Bahamas and Southern Florida, including the Keys: 5 to 10
inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated maximum totals of 15 inches (380
mm).

This rainfall will continue catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico. Flash flooding is possible across the Bahamas
and Southern Florida.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands
Saturday or Saturday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of
Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-06 08:38


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 060836
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0900 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN
THOSE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPRESSION.

INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS
LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.4W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 87.4W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 87.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.0N 86.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.2N 82.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.8N 80.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.5N 79.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.6N 80.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 25.1N 83.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 25.9N 85.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 87.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-11-06 05:34


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 060532
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1200 AM CST Fri Nov 06 2020

...ETA STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 87.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NNW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
for heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys and
southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as
Tropical Storm Watches could be required for some of these areas
later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 87.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected later today, with this motion
continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of Eta will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea today,
approach the Cayman Islands Saturday, and be near Cuba Saturday
night and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again later today,
with further strengthening likely through early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to
255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands
Saturday or Saturday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to spread northeastward
and affect the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and the southern coast of
Cuba during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-06 02:56


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 060254
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

Eta has not become any better organized during the past several
hours, and a specific center is hard to locate. It is estimated
that the center is near a growing area of deep convection located
east of the Belize. While it is possible the system has degenerated
into a broad low or trough, there isn't enough evidence to break
continuity, so Eta remains a 30-kt tropical depression on this
advisory. Scatterometer data will probably come in overnight to
provide a better look at the low-level circulation.

The initial motion is an uncertain 360/7 kt. Eta should move
northeastward on Friday around a developing mid- to upper-level
trough over the Gulf of Mexico, then turn northward on Sunday and
west-northwestward early next week as the trough cuts off into a
closed low. The details of this sinuous path, however, are pretty
fuzzy and small differences in the tropical cyclone position could
lead to large errors down the line. The most notable change tonight
is that the GFS-based guidance (including HWRF and HMON) have
generally shifted northward and faster. The new forecast is moved
eastward near Cuba, and then northward near the Florida Keys in
response to this guidance and the 18Z ECMWF. It should be stressed
this is a fairly uncertain forecast due to the strong trough
interaction.

Eta should begin to strengthen on Friday due to the low-level
circulation forecast to become better defined in a fairly conducive
environment. While vertical wind shear could increase this weekend,
it is expected that upper-level divergence and trough dynamics will
overwhelm the negative factors and cause continued intensification
until the system reaches Cuba. The new forecast is raised from the
previous one, but still lies below the NOAA corrected-consensus
model HCCA. There isn't a lot of agreement on the intensity after
Cuba, however, and the forecast hinges on how tropical it will
remain after the trough interaction. The new forecast flattens out
the intensity near Florida as a compromise between the various
solutions, but I don't have much confidence in the forecast at that
range.

Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea on Friday. Although the details of
the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an
increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the
Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys and the
northwestern Bahamas this weekend and early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 16.6N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 17.5N 87.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 18.8N 85.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 19.7N 83.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 20.8N 81.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 22.6N 79.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 09/0000Z 24.2N 80.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 10/0000Z 25.0N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 25.5N 85.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-06 02:55


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 060253
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

...ETA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY...
...STILL CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 87.8W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM NW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
ABOUT 470 MI...760 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
those areas should continue to monitor the depression.

Interests in Cuba, the northwestern Bahamas, Florida Keys and
southern Florida should monitor the progress of this system as
Tropical Storm Watches could be required for some of these areas on
Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 87.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast is expected on Friday, with this motion
continuing through early Sunday. On the forecast track, the center
of Eta will be over the western Caribbean Sea through Friday,
approach the Cayman Islands Saturday and Saturday night, and be near
Cuba on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta is forecast to become a tropical storm again on Friday, with
further strengthening possible through early Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to
255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands
Saturday or Saturday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-06 02:55


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 060252
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0300 UTC FRI NOV 06 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE WARNINGS
ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND INTERESTS IN
THOSE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEPRESSION.

INTERESTS IN CUBA...THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM AS
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES COULD BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS ON
FRIDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 87.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 87.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 87.8W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.5N 87.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.8N 85.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.7N 83.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.8N 81.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 22.6N 79.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.2N 80.4W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 25.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 25.5N 85.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 87.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-11-05 23:32


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 052330
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
600 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

...ETA CAUSING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 87.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WNW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings
on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and interests in
Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of
this system. Interests in Belize and western Cuba should also
monitor the progress of this system, as Tropical Storm Watches may
be required for portions of western Cuba later tonight or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 87.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13
km/h), and a turn toward the north is forecast during the next
several hours. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday,
with this motion continuing through Saturday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta will be over the western Caribbean Sea
through Friday, approach the Cayman Islands Saturday and Saturday
night, and be near Cuba on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 35 mph (55 km/h) over water,
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Eta is expected
to re-gain tropical storm strength on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to
255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands
Saturday or Saturday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-11-05 20:56


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 052054
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

The low-level circulation of Eta has become disorganized to the
point that the system more resembles a remnant low than a tropical
cyclone. However, the system continues to produce convection in an
area just north and northwest of the estimated center position, as
well as in a cluster well to the northeast. Based on this, and the
expectation that the system will start re-developing during the next
several hours as it moves back over water, Eta is maintained as a
tropical depression for this advisory. The initial intensity is
increased to 30 kt based on scatterometer data, with those winds
occuring well to the northeast of the center.

The center appears to be just south of the northwestern coast of
Honduras, and the initial motion is an uncertain 330/7. During the
next 24 h, Eta should recurve northeastward in southwesterly flow
between a ridge over the central Caribbean and a developing mid- to
upper-level trough over the central Gulf of Mexico. This motion
should persist through about 72 h. After that, the trough is
forecast to become a closed low in the vicinity of western Cuba,
with Eta turning to the west-northwest as it interacts or merges
with the low. While the models are in good agreement with the
synoptic pattern, they are in poor agreement on the details of the
track. The forecast tracks show possible landfalls in Cuba
anywhere between 77W-83W, and after the turn some of the tracks are
as far north as southern Florida while other stay over Cuba. In
addition, there is a significant speed difference between the
faster GFS/HWRF/HMON and the slower Canadian/ECMWF/UKMET. The
low-confidence official forecast compromises between these various
extremes and is not changed much from the previous forecast.

Little change in strength is expected during the next 12 h or so as
Eta starts to re-organized over water. After that, gradual
strengthening is expected until the system reaches Cuba in about
72 h, with the main limiting factor being increasing southwesterly
shear during that time. From 72-120 h, there is a possibility that
Eta will take on subtropical or hybrid characteristics as it
interacts with the developing upper-level low. The intensity
forecast will be held at 50 kt during that time due to this
interaction. The new intensity forecast has only minor tweaks from
the previous forecast. However, it lies below the bulk of the
intensity guidance for the first 60 h and above the bulk of the
guidance from 72-120 h.

The new forecast track, intensity, and wind radii require a
Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands at this time. A
Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for portions of Cuba
later tonight or on Friday.

Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea in a day or so. Although the details of
the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an
increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of the
Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this
weekend and early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 15.7N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0600Z 16.4N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 06/1800Z 18.1N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 20.1N 83.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 21.3N 81.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 09/1800Z 23.5N 82.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 10/1800Z 24.5N 84.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-05 20:55


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 052053
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 PM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

...ETA STILL PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING
OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...SHOULD MOVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT
6-12 HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 87.7W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM W OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Meteorological Service of the Cayman islands has issued a
Tropical Storm Watch for the Cayman Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The Cayman Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and
interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. Interests in Belize and western Cuba
should also monitor the progress of this system, as Tropical Storm
Watches may be required for portions of western Cuba later tonight
or on Friday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 87.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph
(13 km/h), and a turn toward the north is expected during the next
several hours. A turn toward the northeast is expected on Friday,
with this motion continuing through Saturday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta will emerge over the Caribbean
Sea tonight and approach the Cayman Islands Saturday and Saturday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Eta is expected to re-gain tropical
storm strength on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts through Tuesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 5 to 10 inches (125 to
255 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico and Jamaica: An additional 2 to 5 inches (50 to
125 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Cayman Islands
Saturday or Saturday night.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-05 20:55


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 052053
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
2100 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CAYMAN ISLANDS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE
WARNINGS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND
INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN BELIZE AND WESTERN CUBA
SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA LATER TONIGHT
OR ON FRIDAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 87.7W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 87.7W AT 05/2100Z...INLAND
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 87.7W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.4N 87.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.1N 86.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.1N 84.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 20.1N 83.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.3N 81.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.4N 80.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.5N 82.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 24.5N 84.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 87.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 06/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-11-05 16:18


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 051615

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 05.11.2020

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 122.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.11.2020 0 18.1N 122.7W 1005 32
0000UTC 06.11.2020 12 18.5N 124.2W 1006 31
1200UTC 06.11.2020 24 18.0N 125.6W 1006 30
0000UTC 07.11.2020 36 17.2N 126.3W 1005 27
1200UTC 07.11.2020 48 16.5N 126.6W 1007 25
0000UTC 08.11.2020 60 15.6N 127.2W 1006 23
1200UTC 08.11.2020 72 15.0N 128.2W 1008 23
0000UTC 09.11.2020 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 90.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 05.11.2020 0 13.2N 90.0W 1006 37
0000UTC 06.11.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 9.7N 142.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.11.2020 60 9.7N 142.8W 1006 25
1200UTC 08.11.2020 72 9.5N 144.0W 1006 23
0000UTC 09.11.2020 84 9.6N 144.9W 1005 31
1200UTC 09.11.2020 96 9.7N 147.0W 1007 30
0000UTC 10.11.2020 108 10.5N 149.7W 1008 27
1200UTC 10.11.2020 120 10.6N 152.6W 1010 25
0000UTC 11.11.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 18.9N 82.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.11.2020 72 19.7N 81.5W 1004 31
0000UTC 09.11.2020 84 19.5N 80.3W 1003 27
1200UTC 09.11.2020 96 19.7N 77.9W 1004 27
0000UTC 10.11.2020 108 20.6N 78.3W 1004 30
1200UTC 10.11.2020 120 23.0N 79.8W 1002 34
0000UTC 11.11.2020 132 24.5N 83.0W 998 38
1200UTC 11.11.2020 144 25.0N 85.3W 998 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 33.9N 31.4E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 11.11.2020 144 33.9N 31.4E 1011 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051615

>

2020-11-05 16:17


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 051615

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 05.11.2020

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 122.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.11.2020 18.1N 122.7W WEAK
00UTC 06.11.2020 18.5N 124.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2020 18.0N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2020 17.2N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2020 16.5N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2020 15.6N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.11.2020 15.0N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 90.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 05.11.2020 13.2N 90.0W WEAK
00UTC 06.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 9.7N 142.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.11.2020 9.7N 142.8W WEAK
12UTC 08.11.2020 9.5N 144.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2020 9.6N 144.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2020 9.7N 147.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.11.2020 10.5N 149.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2020 10.6N 152.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 18.9N 82.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.11.2020 19.7N 81.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.11.2020 19.5N 80.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.11.2020 19.7N 77.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.11.2020 20.6N 78.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.11.2020 23.0N 79.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.11.2020 24.5N 83.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.11.2020 25.0N 85.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 33.9N 31.4E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.11.2020 33.9N 31.4E WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 051615

>

2020-11-05 14:52


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 051450
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

Eta remains disorganized this morning, as visible imagery suggests
that the circulation has become elongated and that multiple
vorticity centers may be present inside the larger cyclonic
envelope. The center position for this advisory, which is over
northwestern Honduras, is closer to convection in the northwestern
semicircle than was the case 6 h ago, so the cyclone is being
maintained as a tropical depression at this time.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 305/8 kt. Eta or its
remnants should move generally northwestward today, then turn
northward tonight. From 24-72 h, the system should move
northeastward in response to a developing mid- to upper-level
trough over the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico. From 72-120 h,
the trough is forecast to become a closed mid- to upper-level low
in the vicinity of western Cuba, with the center of Eta likely to
turn west-northwestward on the north side of the low. While the
global models are in good agreement with this synoptic evolution,
there is a significant spread in the forecast tracks between the
fastest and farthest east GFS and the slowest and farthest west
UKMET. The new forecast track lies between these extremes in best
overall agreement with the ECMWF and Canadian models, and it calls
for the system to be near western Cuba and the Cayman Islands in
60-72 h, and then be over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by the
end of the forecast period.

Little change in strength is expected before the center moves back
over the Caribbean, but there is still a chance that Eta could
degenerate to a remnant low pressure area later today if the
convection does not persist. Intensification is expected over the
warm waters of the Caribbean Sea from 24-72 h, although this may be
slowed by southwesterly shear caused by the aforementioned trough.
As the trough cuts off near or over Eta between 72-120 h, the
global models suggest that the system could strengthen while
acquiring at least some subtropical or hybrid characteristics due
to upper-level cold air entrainment. The new intensity forecast is
little changed from the previous forecast, and in the latter part of
the forecast period it lies near the intensity consensus. It should
be noted that while Eta regaining hurricane strength cannot be ruled
out, there is little support for that in the current guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of
the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an
increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of
the Cayman Islands, Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys
this weekend and early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 15.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 06/0000Z 15.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 06/1200Z 16.8N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 07/0000Z 17.8N 86.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 19.0N 84.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 20.1N 83.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 21.3N 81.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 24.0N 83.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-05 14:52


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 051450
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

...ETA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 87.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SW OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and
interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and
the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system,
as Tropical Storm watches may be required later today or tonight
for portions of these areas.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 87.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue today. A turn toward
the north, and then the northeast is forecast to occur tonight and
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to
move across northwestern Honduras through this afternoon, and
emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. Eta is forecast to
approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba this
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is likely through tonight. After that,
Eta is forecast to intensify over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Tuesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 10 to 15 inches (255 to
380 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated
maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-05 14:52


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 051450
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
1500 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE
WARNINGS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND
INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT
FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 87.8W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 87.8W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 87.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.7N 88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.8N 87.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.8N 86.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.0N 84.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.1N 83.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 21.3N 81.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 83.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 87.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-11-05 08:54


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 050852
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

Eta has become very disorganized due to its interaction with the
land mass of Central America, and may no longer have a surface
circulation. Based on a few surface observations, the maximum winds
are estimated to be around 25 kt over the water to the north of
Honduras. Eta is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical low very
soon, if it hasn't done so already. Since the low is predicted to
move into the northwestern Caribbean Sea by tomorrow night, some
restrengthening is forecast to begin by the weekend. However the
expected broad nature of the cyclone and stronger vertical shear are
likely to limit strengthening over the next several days. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the latest model
consensus.

The center is extremely difficult to locate at this time, but based
on continuity the initial motion is estimated to be 300/7 kt. Eta,
or its post-tropical remnant low/trough, should continue to move
over land today, and then turn northward tonight while moving along
the eastern side of a broader gyre. This will take the system into
the Gulf of Honduras and over the northwestern Caribbean Sea on
Friday. A negatively-tilted 500-mb trough/low developing over the
Gulf of Mexico should induce a generally northeastward motion for
the next 2-3 days and take the cyclone across portions of Cuba in
3-4 days. Thereafter, the system is forecast to rotate cyclonically
around the eastern side of the 500 mb low and turn northwestward to
westward by the end of the forecast period. The official forecast
is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF predictions, but leans toward
the latter model. This track could take the system near or over
portions of extreme southern Florida by late this weekend or early
next week, but there is low confidence in the forecast, especially
at 3-5 days.


Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of
the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an
increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of
Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early
next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 14.5N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 15.0N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0600Z 16.2N 87.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 07/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 19.6N 82.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 21.0N 81.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 23.5N 79.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 24.5N 81.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-11-05 08:54


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 050851
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 AM CST Thu Nov 05 2020

...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM CST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 87.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and
interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and
the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM CST (0900 UTC), the poorly-defined center of Tropical
Depression Eta was estimated near latitude 14.5 North, longitude
87.0 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8
mph (13 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
expected today. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is
forecast to occur tonight and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to move across Honduras through this
afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by tonight. Eta is
forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or central Cuba
this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Eta will likely degenerate to a remnant low or trough of low
pressure this morning. However, re-intensification is forecast
once the center of Eta moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Tuesday morning:

Portions of Central America: An additional 10 to 15 inches (255 to
380 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
eastern Honduras and eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated
maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into portions of Cuba: 10 to 20 inches (255 to
510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Significant, life-threatening
flash flooding and river flooding is possible in the Cayman Islands
and Cuba. Flash flooding and river flooding is expected for Jamaica
and southeast Mexico.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-11-05 08:52


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 050850
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0900 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE
WARNINGS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND
INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 87.0W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 70 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 87.0W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 86.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.0N 87.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.2N 87.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.5N 84.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 19.6N 82.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.0N 81.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.5N 79.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 24.5N 81.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 87.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-11-05 02:40


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 050238
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Eta Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

The rugged terrain of Central America is taking a toll on Eta. The
low-level circulation is losing definition, and deep convection is
well removed from the center. Eta was downgraded to a 30-kt
tropical depression a few hours ago, and the initial intensity is
held at that value for this advisory. The strongest winds are
likely occurring offshore over the Gulf of Honduras, as noted in
earlier ASCAT scatterometer surface wind data.

Eta, or its remnant low, is forecast to move west-northwestward to
northwestward during the next 12 to 24 hours, taking the cyclone
across portions of Honduras during that time. In 24 to 36 hours, a
turn to the north and then northeast is forecast as Eta feels some
influence from a mid- to upper level trough moving over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. As this trough slides southeastward
across the Gulf, it should steer Eta northeastward at a faster
forward speed toward Cuba, likely approaching that country late
Saturday or Sunday. After that time, the models show Eta rotating
around the north side of the trough (or cut-off low) in the
vicinity of south Florida and the Florida Keys late this weekend and
early next week. There is still a lot of spread in the model tracks
at the 96- and 120-hour time periods, which is not surprising given
the expected complex steering pattern. The NHC track forecast is
adjusted a little to the east of the previous one to come into
better agreement with the latest models, but confidence in the
details of the extended track forecast is low.

Continued weakening is expected while Eta remains inland over the
rugged terrain of Central America, and the cyclone will likely
degenerate into a remnant low or trough of low pressure on Thursday.
Whatever is left of Eta, and the broad gyre that it is embedded
within, will move offshore of Belize over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea by Thursday night or Friday. The rate of intensification over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea will likely be gradual because of the
mixed environmental conditions. On one hand, Eta will be moving
over warm water and in a region of upper-level diffluence, which
should support convective growth and strengthening. Conversely,
there will also be an increase in wind shear and the cyclone is
likely to have a broad structure, which should prevent rapid
intensification. The net result will likely be slow but steady
strengthening, and Eta is forecast to be a strong tropical storm
when it is near south Florida. The models are in fair agreement on
Eta's future intensity, and this forecast is just a little higher
than the previous one.

Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week. Although the details of
the future track and intensity of Eta are uncertain, there is an
increasing risk of impacts from wind and rainfall in portions of
Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend and early
next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 14.2N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 05/1200Z 15.0N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 06/0000Z 16.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 06/1200Z 17.2N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 07/0000Z 18.2N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 07/1200Z 19.3N 83.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 20.4N 82.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 23.3N 79.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 24.7N 81.4W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-05 02:38


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 050236
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

...ETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING
FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.2N 86.3W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSE OF LA CEIBA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and
interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and
the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM CST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eta
was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 86.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).
A northwestward motion is expected later tonight through Thursday
morning. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is forecast
to occur Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to move across Honduras through Thursday
afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by Thursday night.
Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western or
central Cuba this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is expected while Eta remains over land, and
Eta will likely degenerate to a remnant low or trough of low
pressure on Thursday. However, re-intensification is forecast once
the center of Eta moves over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Monday morning:

Portions of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize: An additional 15 to 30
inches (380 to 760 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches
(1000 mm) in eastern Honduras.

Portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador and Costa Rica: An additional 15
to 20 inches (380 to 510 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40
inches (1000 mm) in eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm), isolated
maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into western Cuba: 10 to 25 inches (255 to 635
mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, southern
Haiti, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-05 02:38


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 050236
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0300 UTC THU NOV 05 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS CONTINUE TO ISSUE
WARNINGS ON HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING IN THOSE COUNTRIES...AND
INTERESTS IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. INTERESTS IN BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND
THE CAYMAN ISLANDS SHOULD ALSO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 86.3W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 86.3W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 86.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.0N 87.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.1N 87.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.2N 86.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.2N 85.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.3N 83.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 70SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 20.4N 82.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.3N 79.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.7N 81.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 86.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-11-04 23:45


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 042342 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 17A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
600 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

Corrected maximum wind speed

...ETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 86.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM E OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and
interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and
the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 86.1 West. Eta is moving
toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected later tonight through Thursday
morning. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is
forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to move across Honduras through Thursday
afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by Thursday night.
Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western Cuba this
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is expected while Eta remains over land
during the next day or so, and Eta could degenerate to a remnant low
during that time. However, re-intensification is forecast once the
center of Eta moves over the Caribbean Sea.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Monday morning:

Portions of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize: An additional 15 to 30
inches (380 to 760 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches
(1000 mm) in eastern Honduras.

Portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador and Costa Rica: An additional 15
to 20 inches (380 to 510 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40
inches (1000 mm) in eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm), isolated
maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into western Cuba: 10 to 25 inches (255 to 635
mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, southern
Haiti, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-04 23:37


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 042335
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
600 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

...ETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING CONTINUES OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 86.1W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM E OF TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

The governments of Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue
warnings on heavy rain and flooding in those countries, and
interests in Nicaragua and Honduras should continue to monitor the
progress of this system. Interests in Belize, western Cuba, and
the Cayman Islands should also monitor the progress of this system.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 86.1 West. Eta is moving
toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected later tonight through Thursday
morning. A turn toward the north, and then the northeast is
forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to move across Honduras through Thursday
afternoon, and emerge over the Gulf of Honduras by Thursday night.
Eta is forecast to approach the Cayman Islands and western Cuba this
weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional weakening is expected while Eta remains over land
during the next day or so, and Eta could degenerate to a remnant low
during that time. However, re-intensification is forecast once the
center of Eta moves over the Caribbean Sea.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Monday morning:

Portions of Honduras, Guatemala and Belize: An additional 15 to 30
inches (380 to 760 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40 inches
(1000 mm) in eastern Honduras.

Portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador and Costa Rica: An additional 15
to 20 inches (380 to 510 mm), isolated maximum storm totals of 40
inches (1000 mm) in eastern Nicaragua.

Southeastern Mexico: 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm), isolated
maximum totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated
maximum storm totals totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

The Cayman Islands into western Cuba: 10 to 25 inches (255 to 635
mm), isolated maximum totals of 30 inches (760 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, southern
Haiti, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-11-04 20:48


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 042046
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
300 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

Eta continues to weaken as it moves from Nicaragua into Honduras.
There is little convection left near the center, and the strongest
convection remains in bands well removed from the center. As
before, there are no wind observations available near the center
of Eta at this time, so the initial intensity is reduced to a
uncertain 35 kt.

The initial motion is westward or 275/6. A mid-level ridge to the
north of the cyclone should steer it on a generally west-
northwestward track during the next 24 h or so. After that time, a
mid- to upper-level trough moving over the central and eastern Gulf
of Mexico is expected to cause Eta or is remnants to turn northward
and then northeastward, Then, by 120 h, the cyclone is likely to
move northward or northwestward on the eastern side of the trough as
it cuts off into a closed low. The track guidance remains in
reasonable agreement with this scenario, However, there remains
some spread on when and where the various turns will occur, and
there has also been an eastward shift in the guidance envelope after
36 h. The new forecast track is shifted to the east of the previous
track after 36 h, and at 72 and 96 h it lies a little to the west of
the various consensus models,

Eta will continue to weaken while it crosses Honduras, and it is
expected to decay to a remnant low before it reaches the Gulf of
Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Re-development is
expected once the center is over the water. However, interaction
with the aforementioned trough could result in a structure that is
more subtropical or hybrid, as suggested by the UKMET, than a
classical tropical cyclone, as suggested by the ECMWF. The new
intensity forecast will follow the previous forecast and go with a
gradual intensification that follows the general trend of the model
guidance. However, the intensity forecast again lies a little below
the intensity consensus.

Although it is weakening, Eta will continue to produce heavy
rainfall and flooding over portions of Central America.


Key Messages:

1. Through Monday morning, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength before it
moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this
weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing,
magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall,
interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Eta through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 13.9N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 05/0600Z 14.2N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/1800Z 15.1N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
36H 06/0600Z 16.5N 87.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/1800Z 17.7N 86.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H 07/0600Z 18.8N 84.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 20.5N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 24.0N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 25.5N 82.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-04 17:48


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 041746
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1200 PM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

...ETA WINDS DECREASE FURTHER BUT IT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 85.6W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Governments of Nicaragua and Honduras have discontinued all of
the coastal warnings for Nicaragua and Honduras.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Although
the coastal warnings have been discontinued, the governments of
Nicaragua and Honduras continue to issue warnings on heavy rain and
flooding in those countries, and interests in Nicaragua and
Honduras should continue to monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 85.6 West. Eta is moving
toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected this afternoon through
Thursday morning. A turn toward the north, and then northeast is
forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to move over northern Nicaragua through
early this afternoon, and then move across Honduras later this
afternoon through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge
over the Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday
night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves over land
during the next day or two, and Eta should become a tropical
depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (80 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
for a few more hours, and near the center of Eta for several more
hours.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: An additional 10 to 20 inches
(255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
northeast Nicaragua and eastern Honduras..

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 30 inches (760 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

The Cayman Islands: An additional 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm),
isolated storm totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica and Southern Haiti: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to
125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coasts of Nicaragua and
Honduras should gradually decrease today.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-04 14:59


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 041457
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
900 AM CST Wed Nov 04 2020

...ETA WINDS DECREASING BUT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 85.2W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM NNE OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Laguna de Perlas.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 85.2 West. Eta is moving
toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A west-northwestward motion
at a faster forward speed is expected later today through Thursday
morning. A turn toward the north, and then northeast is forecast
Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta
is expected to move over northern Nicaragua through early this
afternoon, and then move across the central portions of Honduras
through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the
Gulf of Honduras or the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night
and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves over land during the
next couple of days, and Eta should become a tropical depression
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
mainly to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the
web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
for a few more hours, and near the center of Eta for several more
hours.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: An additional 10 to 20 inches
(255 to 510 mm), isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in
northeast Nicaragua and eastern Honduras..

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 30 inches (760 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

The Cayman Islands: An additional 5 to 15 inches (125 to 380 mm),
isolated storm totals of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica and Southern Haiti: An additional 3 to 5 inches (75 to
125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coasts of Nicaragua and
Honduras should gradually decrease today.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST.
Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-11-04 14:59


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 041456
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
1500 UTC WED NOV 04 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
LAGUNA DE PERLAS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 85.2W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 85.2W AT 04/1500Z...INLAND
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.9W...INLAND

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.1N 86.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.9N 87.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.0N 88.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 17.0N 88.2W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 18.0N 86.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.6N 84.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 81.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 25.0N 82.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 85.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-11-04 08:58


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 040856
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Wed Nov 04 2020

Eta still has a well-organized cloud pattern while it moves over
northern Nicaragua, but there has been a considerable decrease in
deep convection as evidenced by the warming cloud tops. Assuming an
inland weakening rate as given by the Decay-SHIPS model, the current
intensity is reduced to 60 kt. Continued weakening will occur over
the next 48 hours or so, and the system should degenerate into
remnant low tomorrow. In fact, the surface circulation could lose
its identity in a day or two. However, the upper-level circulation
is likely to remain intact, and a surface cyclone is predicted to
regenerate once the system moves into the northwestern Caribbean Sea
on Friday. Some strengthening is forecast thereafter, in line with
the intensity model consensus. However, the global models show the
system interacting with a strong upper-level trough in 3-5 days, so
the cyclone may have some hybrid or subtropical characteristics by
that time.

Eta continues westward, or at about 270/7 kt. A mid-level ridge to
the north of the cyclone should steer it on a generally
west-northwestward track during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, a
500-mb trough/low dropping into the Gulf of Mexico is expected to
cause the cyclone to move northeastward in 3-4 days. By the end of
the forecast period, the system is expected to rotate cyclonically
around the eastern side of the low. The official track forecast is
quite close to the latest corrected consensus, HCCA, prediction
which is usually a good performer. There is still significant
uncertainty as to the details of the track in the 3- to 5-day time
frame.

Of more immediate concern are the torrential rains that Eta will
continue to produce over portions of Central America.


Key Messages:

1. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.

2. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength before it
moves across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this
weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing,
magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall,
interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Eta through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 13.8N 84.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0600Z 14.6N 87.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1800Z 15.5N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0600Z 16.5N 88.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1800Z 17.6N 87.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 07/0600Z 19.0N 85.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 22.6N 81.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 25.0N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-11-04 08:57


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 040855
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Wed Nov 04 2020

...ETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 84.7W
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM W OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna
de Perlas.

It is recommended that the Hurricane Warning for the coast of
Nicaragua be downgraded or discontinued.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 84.7 West. Eta is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster
west-northwestward motion is expected through Thursday morning. A
turn toward the north, and then northeast is forecast Thursday night
and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to
move over northern Nicaragua through this morning, and then move
across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning.
The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Continued weakening will occur while Eta moves
over land during the next couple of days, and Eta should become a
tropical depression tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning areas
through this morning.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in northeast
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm).

Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5
inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the coasts of Nicaragua and
Honduras should gradually decrease today.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-11-04 08:56


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 040854
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0900 UTC WED NOV 04 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO LAGUNA
DE PERLAS.

IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF
NICARAGUA BE DOWNGRADED OR DISCONTINUED.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.7W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.7W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.6N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.5N 88.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.5N 88.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.6N 87.6W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 85.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 22.6N 81.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 25.0N 81.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 84.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-11-04 05:48


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 040546
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 AM EST Wed Nov 04 2020

...HURRICANE ETA CONTINUES TO MOVE INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 84.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM WSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna
de Perlas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 84.4 West. Eta is moving toward
the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster west-northwestward motion is
expected through early Thursday. A turn toward the north, and then
north-northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move farther inland
over northern Nicaragua through this morning, and then move across
the central portions of Honduras through Thursday morning. The
system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea
Thursday night or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening will occur over the next couple
of days while the center of Eta moves inland over Nicaragua and
Honduras.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Significant wind damage is expected within the Hurricane
Warning area and also across inland areas of northeastern
Nicaragua near the path of the center. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area through this
morning.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in northeast
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5
inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-11-04 04:06


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 040403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 04.11.2020

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 117.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.11.2020 0 14.4N 117.2W 1005 32
1200UTC 04.11.2020 12 16.7N 119.1W 1004 33
0000UTC 05.11.2020 24 18.1N 120.7W 1003 38
1200UTC 05.11.2020 36 18.8N 121.7W 1005 33
0000UTC 06.11.2020 48 18.8N 122.8W 1006 30
1200UTC 06.11.2020 60 18.7N 123.8W 1007 28
0000UTC 07.11.2020 72 17.5N 123.8W 1006 25
1200UTC 07.11.2020 84 16.7N 123.7W 1007 21
0000UTC 08.11.2020 96 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 84.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.11.2020 0 13.4N 84.1W 971 49
1200UTC 04.11.2020 12 13.0N 85.3W 994 36
0000UTC 05.11.2020 24 12.9N 87.0W 1000 33
1200UTC 05.11.2020 36 13.4N 89.0W 1003 36
0000UTC 06.11.2020 48 15.0N 93.2W 1003 39
1200UTC 06.11.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 31.7N 29.8E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.11.2020 144 31.7N 29.8E 1011 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 040403

>

2020-11-04 04:05


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 040403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.11.2020

TROPICAL STORM ODALYS ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 117.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP202020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.11.2020 14.4N 117.2W WEAK
12UTC 04.11.2020 16.7N 119.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.11.2020 18.1N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.11.2020 18.8N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2020 18.8N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2020 18.7N 123.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.11.2020 17.5N 123.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.11.2020 16.7N 123.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 84.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.11.2020 13.4N 84.1W STRONG
12UTC 04.11.2020 13.0N 85.3W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.11.2020 12.9N 87.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.11.2020 13.4N 89.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.11.2020 15.0N 93.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.11.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 31.7N 29.8E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.11.2020 31.7N 29.8E WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 040403

>

2020-11-04 02:47


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 040245
TCDAT4

Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

Satellite imagery and surface observation data indicate that
Hurricane Eta has moved farther inland over northeastern Nicaragua
this evening. Eta has maintained a well-defined CDO feature in
infrared satellite data, although passive microwave imagery is no
longer depicting an eye feature. A sustained wind of 93 kt (107 mph)
with a gust to 117 kt (135 mph) was reported at the Puerto Cabezas,
Nicaragua, airport around 03/2139 UTC while the eye of Eta was just
inland. The initial intensity of 90 kt is based on a standard decay
rate for inland tropical cyclones.

The initial motion estimate is 270/05 kt. The track forecast
reasoning is fairly straightforward for the next 72 h. A narrow
ridge to the north and northeast of the cyclone will cause Eta to
gradually turn toward the west-northwest over the next 12 h, and
maintain that motion through 48 h. In the 48-72 h period, Eta or its
remnants are expected to turn northward and then northeastward, and
emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea offshore the Yucatan
Peninsula by 72 h. Thereafter, the forecast becomes more complex due
to expected mid-latitude interaction with an upper-level trough/low
currently over the southwestern U.S. that will be digging
southeastward and amplifying over the Gulf of Mexico and as far
south as the Yucatan by 96 h. The trough is expected to lift out Eta
or its remnants northeastward across Cuba, then slow down and turn
northward toward the southern Florida peninsula by 120 h when the
cyclone will be interacting with an upper-level low over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico. Due to this complex mid-latitude
low/trough interaction, the track forecast at days 4 and 5 contains
some uncertainty. The new NHC track forecast is just a little to the
left of the previous advisory track through 72 hours, but not as far
west as the simple- and corrected-consensus models, and is very
similar to the previous advisory track at 96 and 120 hours.

Similar to the track forecast, the intensity forecast is also
straightforward through 72 h, which calls for Eta to rapidly weaken
for the next 48 h so using a standard decay rate for inland tropical
cyclones. By 72 h and beyond, the intensity forecast becomes a
little more complicated due to the aforementioned mid-latitude
trough interaction. The global models are still in fairly good
agreement with the development of an anticyclonically curved
upper-level jetstream across the northwestern Caribbean Sea, Cuba,
and the Bahamas by 96 h. There are some subtropical jet dynamics
already occurring across the northwestern Caribbean, which has
helped to generate widespread convection across the region today. As
the jetstream amplifies ahead of the vigorous upper-level trough,
significant upper-level divergence is expected to develop, which
will cause surface pressures to fall across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea. Those strong pressure falls will likely aid in the
redevelopment of Eta or generate a new tropical cyclone. Regardless
of the exact formation, the global and regional models are all in
good agreement on a tropical or subtropical cyclone developing and
moving across Cuba and toward Florida on days 4 and 5. The new
official intensity forecast is very similar to the previous
intensity forecast through 72 hours, and then is slightly higher
thereafter, but not as high as some of the intensity guidance like
the HCCA and ICON consensus models.

Key Messages:

1. Significant wind damage is expected along the coast of
northeastern Nicaragua and also inland overnight.

2. A dangerous and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua overnight. Water levels could reach as high as
5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane
warning area.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.

4. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves
across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this
weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing,
magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall,
interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Eta through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 13.8N 84.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 05/0000Z 14.4N 86.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/1200Z 15.3N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 06/0000Z 16.0N 89.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/1200Z 16.9N 88.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 07/0000Z 17.9N 86.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 08/0000Z 21.1N 82.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 24.3N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-04 02:46


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 040244
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER INLAND OVER
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 84.0W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna
de Perlas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 84.0 West. Eta is moving toward
the west near 6 mph (9 km/h). A faster west-northwestward motion is
expected through early Thursday. A turn toward the north, and then
north-northeast is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to move farther
inland over northern Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then
move across the central portions of Honduras through Thursday
morning. The system is forecast to emerge over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening will occur over the next couple
of days as the center of Eta moves farther inland over Nicaragua
and Honduras.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). During the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of
49 mph (79 km/h) and a gust to 72 (116 km/h) were measured at the
Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Significant wind damage is expected within the Hurricane
Warning area and also across inland areas of northeastern
Nicaragua. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area through tonight.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated maximum totals of 40 inches (1000 mm) in northeast
Nicaragua and eastern Honduras.

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5
inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 5 to 10 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-04 02:46


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 040244
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0300 UTC WED NOV 04 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO LAGUNA
DE PERLAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.0W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 84.0W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 83.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.4N 86.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 15.3N 88.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 16.0N 89.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 16.9N 88.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 17.9N 86.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 21.1N 82.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 24.3N 80.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 84.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-03 23:56


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 032354
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA LOCATED INLAND OVER NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 83.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM ESE OF ROSITA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna
de Perlas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Eta was located near
along the coast of Nicaragua near latitude 13.8 North, longitude
83.7 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) A
faster westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through
early Thursday. A turn toward the north, and then north-northeast
is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to move inland over northern Nicaragua
through Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions
of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to
emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eta is now a strong category 2 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening will continue
as the center moves farther inland tonight and Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km). During the past couple of hours, a sustained wind of
107 mph (172 km/h) and a gust to 135 (217 km/h) were measured at the
Puerto Cabezas, Nicaragua, airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
tracks within the Hurricane Warning area. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area through
tonight.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5
inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-03 20:47


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 032045
TCDAT4

Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

After meandering just offshore of the coast of northeastern
Nicaragua this morning, the eye of Eta began moving westward and is
currently making landfall along the coast of Nicaragua about 15 n
mi south of Puerto Cabezas. Visible satellite imagery has shown
that the eye of Eta became larger as the hurricane completed an
eyewall replacement. A blend of the earlier aircraft data and
recent subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates
yields an initial intensity of 120 kt. Eta remains an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane, and is likely producing a very high
storm surge and catastrophic damage. In addition, the slow-moving
system is likely to produce torrential rains and inland flooding
that will continue to be an extremely serious threat over the next
couple of days.

Once the eyewall is fully onshore, rapid weakening should begin,
and Eta is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm by early
Wednesday, and become a tropical depression Wednesday night.
Although it appears unlikely that the surface circulation will
remain intact while Eta moves over Central America, most of the
global model guidance indicates that the low-level vorticity center
will emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea within 60-72 hours.
At that time, the system is forecast to interact with an
upper-level trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico, and
re-development later in the period appears likely with some
strengthening by days 4 and 5. Due the interaction with the
upper-level trough, the system is likely to have a more hybrid or
subtropical structure late in the period.

Eta appears to be moving westward at about 4 kt. A ridge to the
north of the hurricane should steer the system westward to west-
northwestward at a faster forward speed over the next couple of
days. By late in the week, Eta or its remnants should turn
northward, and then northeastward around the southeastern portion
of the aforementioned trough. Although the 12z GFS and ECMWF
models are in general agreement on the overall forecast scenario,
there are large differences in how fast Eta accelerates
northeastward. The NHC track forecast is near the HFIP corrected
consensus model which lies between the faster GFS and slower ECMWF
solutions. There is still significant spread among the various
global models and the ensembles, which results in a higher than
normal level of uncertainty regarding the details of the track and
intensity forecast later in the period.

Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected during the next few hours
as Eta's eyewall moves onshore along the northeastern coast of
Nicaragua.

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center has
crossed the coast. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21
feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane
warning area.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.

4. Eta is forecast to regain tropical storm strength as it moves
across portions of Cuba and approaches southern Florida this
weekend. While it is too soon to determine the exact timing,
magnitude, and location of possible impacts from wind and rainfall,
interests in Cuba, southern Florida and the Florida Keys should
monitor the progress of Eta through the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 13.8N 83.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 13.8N 84.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1800Z 14.1N 85.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0600Z 14.7N 87.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 05/1800Z 15.4N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0600Z 16.3N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1800Z 17.0N 87.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
96H 07/1800Z 20.0N 83.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 24.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-03 20:47


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 032045
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA MAKING LANDFALL JUST SOUTH OF
PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, AND FLASH
FLOODING OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 83.5W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSW OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has discontinued the Hurricane and
Tropical Storm Watches that were in effect for that country.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna
de Perlas.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Eta was located near
along the coast of Nicaragua near latitude 13.8 North, longitude
83.5 West. Eta is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) A
faster westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through
early Thursday. A turn toward the north, and then north-northeast
is forecast Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to move inland over northern Nicaragua
through Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions
of Honduras through Thursday morning. The system is forecast to
emerge over the northwestern Caribbean Sea Thursday night or Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening should occur as the center
moves inland tonight and Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area through
tonight.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5
inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-03 20:46


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 032044
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
2100 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE AND
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES THAT WERE IN EFFECT FOR THAT COUNTRY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO LAGUNA
DE PERLAS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 83.5W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 80SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 83.5W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 83.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.8N 84.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.1N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.7N 87.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.4N 88.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.3N 88.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.0N 87.7W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 20.0N 83.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 24.0N 80.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 83.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 04/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-11-03 17:49


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 031747
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...EYEWALL OF EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA MOVING ONSHORE
ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 83.3W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SSE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna
de Perlas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 83.3 West. Eta is moving toward
the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A faster westward or west-
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today and continue
through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is
expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within the
Hurricane Warning area this afternoon. The center of Eta is
forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through
Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of
Honduras by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely before
landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves inland later
today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb (27.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area, and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area.
Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area later today.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5
inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-03 14:50


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 031448
TCDAT4

Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

Eta appears to have peaked in intensity overnight as an eyewall
replacement cycle occurred early this morning. Radar data from San
Andres revealed concentric eyewalls and the last images received
from that radar early this morning suggests that the inner-eye wall
had weakened. Around that time, the eye became cloud filled and
less distinct in infrared satellite imagery. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft that provided a couple of
center fixes this morning reported that the minimum pressure has
risen about 15 mb since last evening. The plane measured a peak
flight-level wind of 127 kt, and a few SFMR winds slightly higher,
but those winds were flagged as suspect. A dropwindsonde in the
southeastern eyewall measured a surface wind of 138 kt, but the
mean-layer average winds from the sonde supports a much lower
intensity, and the instantaneous surface wind from that instrument
is likely more representative of a wind gust. Based on the above
data, the initial intensity is set at 125 kt for this advisory.
Nonetheless, Eta is an extremely severe hurricane, capable of
causing very high storm surges and catastrophic damage. Once the
center of the hurricane moves onshore later today, rapid weakening
is expected. It is still not certain if the surface circulation
will survive its trek over Central America during the next several
days, but the official forecast continues to show the remnants of
Eta emerging over the northwestern Caribbean Sea late this week.

Eta has been meandering just offshore of the coast of Nicaragua this
morning, but the longer term motion is 255/4 kt. The hurricane
should turn westward very soon with the center crossing the coast
today. A ridge to the north of Eta should steer the cyclone on a
faster westward to west-northwestward heading over northern
Nicaragua and Honduras over the next couple of days. After 72 hours,
a developing trough over the northern Gulf of Mexico should cause
Eta or its remnants to turn northward and then northeastward. Given
that the system is expected to remain over land for at least a
couple of days, there continues to be significant uncertainty in the
long range portion of the track and intensity forecast.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and inland flooding
will be an extremely serious threat over the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves
onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. Tropical-storm-
force or greater winds are already occuring within the Hurricane
Warning area in Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning is also in
effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above
normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 13.6N 83.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 13.5N 83.8W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/1200Z 13.7N 84.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 05/0000Z 14.2N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/1200Z 14.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 06/0000Z 15.2N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/1200Z 15.7N 89.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/1200Z 17.5N 86.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/1200Z 20.0N 82.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-03 14:48


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 031446
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA CONTINUES TO INCH CLOSER TO
THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 83.2W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Nicaragua has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna de Perlas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border
* The coast of Nicaragua from south of Sandy Bay Sirpi to Laguna
de Perlas.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 83.2 West. Eta is moving toward
the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A westward or
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin later today and
continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua
within the Hurricane Warning area today. The center of Eta
is forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through
Wednesday morning, and then move across the central portions of
Honduras by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely before
landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves inland later
today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area within the next
few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occuring in this
area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area this morning, and hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later today.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Sunday morning:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

El Salvador and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm)

Jamaica, Southern Haiti, the Cayman Islands: An additional 3 to 5
inches (75 to 125 mm), isolated storm totals of 15 inches (380 mm).

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-03 14:48


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 031445
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
1500 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF NICARAGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO LAGUANA DE PERLAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM SOUTH OF SANDY BAY SIRPI TO LAGUANA
DE PERLAS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 83.2W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 80SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 83.2W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 83.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.5N 83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.7N 84.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.7N 88.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.2N 89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.7N 89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 17.5N 86.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 20.0N 82.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 83.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-11-03 11:59


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 031156
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA INCHING CLOSER TO THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 83.1W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...936 MB...27.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Eta was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 83.1 West. Eta
is moving toward the west-southwest near 4 mph (6 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A
westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by this
afternoon and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of
Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area this morning. The
center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern
Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across central
portions of Honduras by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely before
landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves inland later
today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). Sustained winds of 69 mph (111 km/h) with gusts to
103 mph (166 km/h) were reported at Puerto Cabezas Airport,
Nicaragua.

The estimated minimum central pressure from Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance data is 936 mb (27.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area within the next
few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occuring in this
area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area this morning, and hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area early today. Tropical Storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later
today.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-03 08:57


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 030854
TCDAT4

Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

Eta remains an extremely well-organized hurricane with a distinct
eye embedded within cloud tops colder than -80C. Based on
continuity from the earlier Hurricane Hunter observations and
Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB, the current intensity
estimate remains 130 kt. Images from the San Andres radar show
at least one concentric eyewall, and this structure has likely
stopped the rapid deepening process. Nonetheless, Eta is an
extremely severe hurricane, capable of causing very high storm
surges and catastrophic damage. After the center moves inland
later today, rapid weakening is likely while the circulation
interacts with land. The official forecast is similar to the
Decay-SHIPS guidance, and shows the cyclone weakening to a
depression by tomorrow. It is not certain that the surface
circulation will survive after moving over Central America for the
next 3 days or so. The official forecast shows the system, perhaps
at first the upper-level remnant of Eta, emerging over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea in the latter part of the forecast
period. It should be noted that both the intensity and track at 4-5
days are highly uncertain at this time.

The hurricane has slowed down and is now moving a little south of
west or about 250/4 kt. This motion will take the center across
the coast in the Hurricane Warning area very soon. A weak ridge to
the north of Eta should cause the cyclone to move west to
west-northwest, over Central America, during the next few days. By
96-120 hours, a trough developing over the Gulf of Mexico should
cause the system to turn northward and northeastward but, as noted
earlier, this future track is quite uncertain.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and inland flooding
will be an extremely serious threat over the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves
onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this morning.
Tropical-storm-force or greater winds are already occuring within
the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua. A Tropical Storm Warning
is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above
normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.
Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 13.8N 83.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 13.8N 83.6W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND
24H 04/0600Z 13.8N 84.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0600Z 14.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1800Z 15.0N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0600Z 15.7N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0600Z 17.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
120H 08/0600Z 19.0N 83.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-11-03 08:56


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 030853
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA VERY NEAR THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 83.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours or so. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Eta was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 83.1 West. Eta
is moving toward the west-southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A
westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by this
afternoon and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of
Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area in a few hours. The
center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern
Nicaragua through Wednesday morning, and then move across central
portions of Honduras by Thursday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is likely
before landfall. Weakening will begin after the center moves
inland later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). Sustained winds of 56 mph (90 km/h) with gusts to 91
mph (146 km/h) were reported at Puerto Cabezas Airport, Nicaragua.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 923 mb (27.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area within the next
few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occuring in this
area. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area this morning, and hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area early today. Tropical Storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later
today.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding will be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-11-03 08:55


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 030853
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0900 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 83.1W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 250 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 923 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 83.1W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 82.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 13.8N 83.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.8N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.5N 87.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.0N 88.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.7N 89.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 17.0N 88.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 19.0N 83.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 83.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-11-03 07:32


Original Message :

WTNT64 KNHC 030729
TCUAT4

Hurricane Eta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
230 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA NEARING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH
FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...

A wind gust to 74 mph (119 km/h) has been reported at the Puerto
Cabezas Airport, Nicaragua.


SUMMARY OF 230 AM EST...0730 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 83.0W
ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Pasch

>

2020-11-03 05:54


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 030551
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 AM EST Tue Nov 03 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE ETA NEARING THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.0N 82.8W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...923 MB...27.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours or so. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the eye of extremely dangerous Hurricane
Eta was located near latitude 14.0 North, longitude 82.8 West. Eta
is moving toward the west-southwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through this morning. A slow
westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by this
afternoon and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the
center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of
Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area later this morning. The
center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern
Nicaragua through Wednesday, and then move across central portions
of Honduras on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher
gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is forecast this morning,
and Eta could become a category 5 hurricane before it makes
landfall. Weakening will begin after the cyclone moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 923 mb (27.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area later this morning,
with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next couple of
hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical
Storm Warning area this morning, and hurricane conditions are
possible in the Hurricane Watch area early today. Tropical Storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area later
today.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-11-03 04:04


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 030401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.11.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 97E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.4N 115.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP972020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.11.2020 0 12.4N 115.1W 1008 22
1200UTC 03.11.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE ETA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 82.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL292020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.11.2020 0 14.3N 82.5W 941 85
1200UTC 03.11.2020 12 13.8N 83.6W 973 56
0000UTC 04.11.2020 24 13.6N 84.6W 991 34
1200UTC 04.11.2020 36 13.1N 86.8W 999 35
0000UTC 05.11.2020 48 13.2N 88.5W 999 34
1200UTC 05.11.2020 60 12.7N 91.0W 999 40
0000UTC 06.11.2020 72 11.9N 92.3W 1000 38
1200UTC 06.11.2020 84 11.8N 92.6W 1000 36
0000UTC 07.11.2020 96 12.8N 92.5W 997 34
1200UTC 07.11.2020 108 13.6N 92.6W 993 48
0000UTC 08.11.2020 120 13.9N 93.0W 994 49
1200UTC 08.11.2020 132 14.1N 92.1W 1000 45
0000UTC 09.11.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 15.3N 118.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.11.2020 36 15.9N 119.8W 1005 25
0000UTC 05.11.2020 48 17.8N 121.6W 1005 30
1200UTC 05.11.2020 60 18.6N 123.0W 1007 32
0000UTC 06.11.2020 72 19.5N 124.4W 1007 29
1200UTC 06.11.2020 84 18.9N 124.9W 1007 29
0000UTC 07.11.2020 96 17.8N 125.5W 1007 27
1200UTC 07.11.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 9.9N 135.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.11.2020 72 9.8N 136.3W 1008 23
1200UTC 06.11.2020 84 9.7N 137.6W 1009 22
0000UTC 07.11.2020 96 9.4N 138.8W 1007 22
1200UTC 07.11.2020 108 9.5N 140.0W 1009 21
0000UTC 08.11.2020 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030401

>

2020-11-03 03:01


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 030259
TCDAT4

Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has found that Eta has
explosively deepened into a strong category 4 hurricane with maximum
sustained winds of 130 kt and a minimum central pressure of 927 mb.
Eta has maintained a small 10-nmi-wide eye that is evident in
satellite imagery and on the San Andreas, Colombia, weather radar.
The radar data also suggest that concentric eyewalls may be forming,
which would be an indication of the onset of an eyewall replacement
cycle (ERC) and a capping of Eta's intensity and also an end to the
rapid intensification cycle of the past 36 hours. The initial
intensity of 130 kt kt is based on 700-mb flight-level winds of 137
kt and SFMR surface winds of 130 kt. Some additional strengthening
is expected, and Eta could become a category 5 hurricane before
landfall occurs. After landfall, Eta should quickly weaken while it
moves over the mountainous terrain of Central America.

Eta has slowed and is now moving southwestward or 245/06 kt. There
is no significant change to previous track forecast reasoning. A
mid-level ridge over the south-central United States should steer
Eta west-southwestward toward the coast of Nicaragua with the
hurricane making landfall early Tuesday. After landfall, Eta should
turn westward and then west-northwestward, and move across Central
America through Thursday. Eta's low-level circulation may not
survive its passage over the mountainous terrain of Central America,
but most of the global models continue to depict a cyclone or its
remnants moving over the northwestern Caribbean Sea by late-week and
into the weekend. Therefore, the new NHC track forecast continues to
show the system emerging over the northwestern Caribbean late in the
period, although this portion of the track forecast remains
uncertain.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be
a major threat.

Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves
onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua tonight or early
Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds are beginning to reach the
coast within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua, and residents
there should have completed their preparations. A Tropical Storm
Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 14 to 21 feet above
normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.
Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely
lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides
in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also
possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern
Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 14.1N 82.7W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 13.9N 83.3W 140 KT 160 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 13.9N 84.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/1200Z 13.9N 85.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 05/0000Z 14.3N 86.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/1200Z 14.8N 87.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 06/0000Z 15.4N 88.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 07/0000Z 16.8N 87.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 08/0000Z 17.9N 85.3W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-03 02:55


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 030252
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0300 UTC TUE NOV 03 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 82.7W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 927 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 40SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 82.7W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 82.5W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 13.9N 83.3W
MAX WIND 140 KT...GUSTS 170 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.9N 84.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.9N 85.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.3N 86.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.8N 87.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 15.4N 88.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 16.8N 87.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 17.9N 85.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 82.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-03 02:54


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 030251
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND THAT ETA HAS CONTINUED
TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT APPROACHES NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 82.7W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 245 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...927 MB...27.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours or so. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of of the eye of dangerous
Hurricane Eta was located by reconnaissance aircraft and radar from
San Andreas near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 82.7 West. Eta is
moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Tuesday. A
slower westward or west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by
Tuesday afternoon and continue through Thursday. On the forecast
track, the center of Eta is expected to make landfall along the
coast of Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area early Tuesday.
The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern
Nicaragua through Wednesday night, and then move across central
portions of Honduras on Thursday.

Reports from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 150 mph (240 km/h) with higher gusts. Eta
is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 12 hours, and
Eta could become a category 5 hurricane before it makes landfall.
Weakening will begin after the cyclone moves inland. An Air Force
Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft is currently investigating Eta
and will provide more data tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the aircraft is
estimated to be 927 mb (27.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
area tonight, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane
Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible
in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 14 to 21 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-02 23:53


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 022351
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...ETA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH FLOODING,
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 82.4W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 250 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...934 MB...27.58 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours or so. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 14.4 North, longitude 82.4 West. Eta is moving toward
the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through early Tuesday. A slower westward or
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin by Tuesday afternoon
and continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua within
the Hurricane Warning area early Tuesday. The center of Eta is
forecast to move farther inland over northern Nicaragua through
Wednesday night, and then move across central portions of Honduras
on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 150 mph (240 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast
until Eta reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Weakening will begin
after the cyclone moves inland. An Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft is currently en route to investigate Eta.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb (27.58 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion
under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning
area tonight, and hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane
Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible
in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding are also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart/Cangialosi/Papin

>

2020-11-02 20:54


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 022052
TCDAT4

Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

Eta is an extremely impressive hurricane in both visible and
infrared satellite imagery. The hurricane has a very small eye that
is located within a symmetric Central Dense Overcast with cloud top
temperatures below -80C. Although objective Dvorak estimates are
lower due to the technique's difficulty in analyzing the correct
scene type because of the pinhole eye, data T-numbers from both TAFB
and SAB analysts reached 6.0 on the Dvorak scale at 18Z, which
equates to a wind speed of 115 kt. A recent UW/CIMSS SATCON
intensity estimate also supports category 4 intensity. As mentioned
in previous advisories over the past 24 hours, the environment ahead
of Eta is forecast to remain quite favorable with low vertical wind
shear and warm sea surface temperatures. These conditions should
allow for additional strengthening, however a difficult-to-predict
eyewall replacement cycle could begin at any time which could cause
Eta's intensity to begin to level off. Since there are no signs of
an eyewall replacement yet, the updated NHC intensity forecast calls
for continued rapid strengthening for another 6 to 12 hours, and it
is again at the upper-end of the guidance envelope. After landfall,
Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous
terrain of Central America.

The hurricane has turned west-southwestward with an initial motion
estimate of 255/8 kt. The track forecast reasoning is unchanged
from this morning. A mid-level ridge over the south-central United
States should steer Eta west-southwestward toward the coast of
Nicaragua with the hurricane making landfall tonight or early
Tuesday. After landfall, Eta is forecast to turn westward, and then
west-northwestward while it moves over Central America through
midweek. Eta's surface circulation may not survive its trek over
the mountainous terrain of Central America, but most of the global
models continue to depict a cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean
Sea by later this week and into the weekend which appears to
develop from at least a part of Eta's remnants. Therefore, the NHC
track forecast continues to show the system emerging over the
northwestern Caribbean late in the period, however the long range
portion of the forecast remains quite uncertain.

Since Eta is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be
a major threat.

Key Messages:

1. Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall moves
onshore along the northeastern coast of Nicaragua tonight or early
Tuesday. Tropical storm force winds are beginning to reach the
coast within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua, and residents
there should have completed their preparations. A Tropical Storm
Warning is also in effect for the northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. A catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge, along with
destructive waves, are expected along portions of the northeastern
coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 12 to 18 feet above
normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning area.
Preparations to protect life and property should now be complete.

3. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely
lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river
flooding across portions of Central America, along with landslides
in areas of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also
possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern
Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 14.5N 82.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 14.1N 83.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.7W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
36H 04/0600Z 14.0N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1800Z 14.2N 85.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0600Z 14.7N 86.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1800Z 15.5N 88.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 06/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 07/1800Z 18.0N 86.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

>

2020-11-02 20:52


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 022050
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...ETA BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AS CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH
FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 82.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
hours or so. Preparations to protect life and property should be
completed.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 82.3 West. Eta is moving toward
the west-southwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through early Tuesday. A slower westward or
west-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Tuesday and
continue through Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Eta is expected to make landfall along the coast of Nicaragua
within the Hurricane Warning area tonight or early Tuesday. The
center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern
Nicaragua through Wednesday night, and then move across central
portions of Honduras on Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast
until Eta reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Weakening will begin
after the system moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta's eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight,
with tropical storm conditions beginning within the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm
Warning area tonight, and hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall will lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding are also possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

>

2020-11-02 20:52


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 022049
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
2100 UTC MON NOV 02 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS OR SO. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
COMPLETE.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 82.3W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 82.3W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 82.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.1N 83.1W
MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.0N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.2N 85.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.7N 86.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.5N 88.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 16.7N 88.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 18.0N 86.0W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 82.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 03/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-11-02 17:52


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 021749
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 PM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...ETA BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH
FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 82.0W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM EST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Eta was located near
latitude 14.7 North, longitude 82.0 West. Eta is moving toward the
west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower motion toward the
west-southwest is forecast this afternoon and will continue into
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to
approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua later today, and make
landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua on Tuesday.
The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over northern
Nicaragua through Wednesday night.

Satellite data indicate that Eta continues to rapidly strengthen.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Eta is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Continued strengthening is
expected until Eta reaches the coast of Nicaragua. Weakening will
begin after the system moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta?--s eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight,
with tropical storm conditions expected by this afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by
this afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-02 14:58


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 021456
TCDAT4

Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

Eta has become an impressive November hurricane as it continues to
undergo rapid strengthening. Visible and infrared satellite imagery
reveals a very symmetric Central Dense Overcast with cloud top
temperatures below -80C. A warm spot has recently become apparent in
infrared imagery while a small eye has been seen microwave imagery
and recent visible satellite data. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft that completed two center penetrations into Eta this
morning reported a minimum pressure of around 972 mb, and flight-
level and SFMR winds that supported an intensity of around 85 kt.
The plane also reported a 12 n-mi-wide eye on its second pass
through the center. With the continued improvement in organization
since the plane departed, the initial intensity has been increased
to 95 kt, as the eye has become more apparent. Low vertical wind
shear and warm sea surface temperatures ahead of Eta are expected to
allow for continued rapid strengthening during the next 12 to 24
hours. The updated NHC intensity forecast is above all of the
intensity aids and now calls for Eta to become a category 4
hurricane before it nears the coast of Nicaragua. After landfall,
Eta should quickly weaken while it moves over the mountainous
terrain of Central America.

The hurricane is moving westward or 265 degrees at 8 kt, a little
slower than before. A mid-level ridge building over the
south-central United States is expected to cause Eta to turn
west-southwestward later today, and this motion should bring the
center of the hurricane near the coast of Nicaragua within the
hurricane warning area Tuesday morning. Eta is forecast to then turn
westward, moving farther inland over Central America. The track
guidance is tightly clustered during the first 48 hours or so, but
the models generally show a slower forward motion than before, and
the NHC track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. Although
Eta's low-level center may not survive after being inland over
Central America for so long, most of the global models depict a
cyclone over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week and into
the weekend which appears to develop from at least a part of Eta's
remnants, and the new NHC track forecast shows the system emerging
over the northwest Caribbean Sea after 96 h. However, the
uncertainty in the long-range portion of the forecast remains quite
high.

Since Eta likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be
a major threat from Eta.

Key Messages:

1. Eta is forecast to strengthen to a major hurricane very soon, and
additional strengthening is likely before it reaches the
northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Tuesday. Catastrophic wind damage
is expected where Eta?--s eyewall moves onshore, and preparations
should be rushed to completion within the Hurricane Warning area.

2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will likely lead
to catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.

3. A potentially catastrophic and life-threatening storm surge,
along with battering waves, is expected along portions of the
northeastern coast of Nicaragua near and to the north of where the
center makes landfall. Water levels could reach as high as 12 to 18
feet above normal tide levels in some parts of the hurricane warning
area. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 14.8N 81.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 14.4N 82.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 14.0N 83.1W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 13.9N 83.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 05/0000Z 14.2N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/1200Z 14.6N 87.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/1200Z 15.8N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/1200Z 17.5N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-02 14:57


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 021455
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...ETA CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE SOON...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, CATASTROPHIC WINDS, FLASH
FLOODING, AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 81.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM EST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 81.5 West. Eta is moving toward
the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower motion toward the
west-southwest is forecast by this afternoon and will continue
into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected
to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua later today, and
make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua on
Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland over
northern Nicaragua through Wednesday night.

Reconnaissance aircraft and satellite data indicate that Eta is
rapidly strengthening. Maximum sustained winds have increased to
near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued rapid
strengthening is expected through early Tuesday, and Eta is expected
to become a major hurricane very soon. Weakening will begin after
the system moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Catastrophic wind damage is expected where Eta?--s eyewall
moves onshore within the Hurricane Warning area beginning tonight,
with tropical storm conditions expected by this afternoon. Tropical
storm conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by
this afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in the
Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 12 to 18 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-02 14:57


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 021455
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
1500 UTC MON NOV 02 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 81.5W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 81.5W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 81.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.4N 82.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.0N 83.1W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 13.9N 83.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 13.9N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 85.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 14.6N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 15.8N 87.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 17.5N 86.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 81.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-11-02 11:48


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 021146
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS ETA QUICKLY
STRENGTHENING...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND
LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM EST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 81.1W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed
to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM EST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 81.1 West. Eta is moving toward
the west near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue through this morning. A slower motion toward the
west-southwest is forecast by this afternoon and continuing into
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to
approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this afternoon, and
make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua by
early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland
over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150
km/h) with higher gusts. Continued strengthening, possibly rapid,
is expected through early Tuesday, and Eta could be a major
hurricane when landfall occurs by early Tuesday. Weakening will
begin after the system moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions possible in
this area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the Tropical Storm Warning area by this afternoon, and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by
early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510
mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/Berg

>

2020-11-02 08:53


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 020850
TCDAT4

Hurricane Eta Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

Eta has continued to become better organized, with a distinct
Central Dense Overcast surrounded by many banding features. A
low-level eye feature was seen in GPM Microwave Imager data, and
Dvorak intensity estimates are at 65 kt from both TAFB and SAB.
Based on this, the system is upgraded to a hurricane. Continued
strengthening is likely, given the very high oceanic heat content
and only moderate easterly vertical shear. The official forecast
calls for rapid intensification, in line with the SHIPS Rapid
Intensification Index which shows a 48 percent chance of a 30 kt
increase over 24 hours. Although not explicitly shown, Eta could
very well be a 100-kt major hurricane when it crosses the coastline.
After landfall, weakening will occur while the cyclone interacts
with the very mountainous terrain of Central America. Even though
official forecast points are shown through day 5, it is doubtful
that the surface circulation could survive after being inland that
long over the mountains of Nicaragua and Honduras. Although some
of the global models are showing a cyclone over the northwestern
Caribbean later this week and into the weekend, it is not certain
whether this is Eta, or a new system that could form in that area.

The hurricane is moving westward, or at about 265/10 kt. The track
forecast philosophy remains basically unchanged. For the next few
days, Eta should move westward or west-southwestward to the south
and southeast of a mid-tropospheric high pressure system centered
near the western Gulf of Mexico coast. The official track
forecast is nearly identical to the previous one, and also very
similar to the various model consensus predictions.

Since this is likely to be a very slow-moving system after it makes
landfall in Central America, torrential rains and flooding will be
a major threat from Eta.


Key Messages:

1. Eta is forecast to continue to strengthen, and it could become a
major hurricane before it reaches the northeastern coast of
Nicaragua early Tuesday, where a Hurricane Warning is in effect. A
Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for a portion of the
northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.

3. A life-threatening storm surge, along with damaging waves, is
expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near
and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels
could reach as high as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in
some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 14.8N 80.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 14.6N 82.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 14.2N 83.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0600Z 13.9N 84.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0600Z 14.4N 86.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/0600Z 15.2N 88.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/0600Z 15.8N 88.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-11-02 08:51


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 020849
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Eta Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...ETA BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND
LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM EST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.8N 80.9W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM EST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Eta was located
near latitude 14.8 North, longitude 80.9 West. Eta is moving toward
the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue through this morning. A slower motion toward the
west-southwest is forecast by this afternoon and continuing into
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to
approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this afternoon, and
make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua by
early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move farther inland
over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected
through early Tuesday, and Eta could be a major hurricane when
landfall occurs by early Tuesday. Weakening will begin after the
system moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions possible in
this area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the Tropical Storm Warning area by this afternoon, and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by
early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510
mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-11-02 08:51


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 020848
TCMAT4

HURRICANE ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0900 UTC MON NOV 02 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 80.9W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 10SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 80.9W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 80.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.6N 82.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.2N 83.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 13.9N 84.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.0N 85.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.4N 86.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 15.2N 88.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 15.8N 88.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 80.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-11-02 05:47


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 020545
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
100 AM EST Mon Nov 02 2020

...ETA NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, FLASH FLOODING, AND
LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM EST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 80.4W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM EST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 80.4 West. Eta is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through this morning. A slower
motion toward the west-southwest is forecast by this afternoon and
continuing into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta
is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua this
afternoon, and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in
Nicaragua by early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move
farther inland over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening, possibly rapid, is expected through early
Tuesday, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane within the next
few hours. Additional strengthening is likely thereafter, and Eta is
forecast to be a major hurricane when landfall occurs by early
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area beginning tonight, with tropical storm conditions possible in
this area by this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the Tropical Storm Warning area by this afternoon, and
hurricane conditions are possible in the Hurricane Watch area by
early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area by early Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510
mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-11-02 02:54


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 020252
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020

Eta has continued to become better organized this evening, including
the development of an impressive Central Dense Overcast (CDO) with
cloud tops colder than -90C near the center, improved banding
features in the northwestern semicircle, and the formation of a
pinhole mid-level eye noted in 01/2322Z 91GHz SSMI/S microwave
imagery. Water vapor imagery also indicates that the upper-level
outflow pattern has continued to expand, with dual outflow channels
having formed to the northeast and the southwest. Satellite
intensity estimates are a consensus T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, SAB, and
UW-CIMSS ADT. However, the initial intensity is set a little higher
at 60 kt based on the pinhole eye feature...and this intensity
estimate is probably conservative. An Air Force Reserve hurricane
hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Eta in a few hours.

Eta has slowed down but is still moving westward, or 270/11 kt. An
expansive subtropical ridge that extends from the southwestern
Atlantic across the Bahamas, Florida, and into the Gulf of Mexico is
expected to keep Eta moving in a general westward direction through
Monday morning. By Monday afternoon and evening, the portion of the
ridge over the Gulf is forecast to build southward and eastward in
the wake of an exiting mid-latitude trough currently moving across
the eastern and southeastern United States. The increased ridging
will act to force Eta west-southwestward and eventually
southwestward over the next 36 hours, resulting in landfall along
the northeastern coast of Nicaragua. After moving inland, steering
currents are forecast to weaken significantly on days 3-5 as another
trough digs southeastward out of the U.S. Plains and into the Gulf
of Mexico, eroding the Gulf ridge and causing Eta to drift slowly
westward across Central America. Compared to the preponderance of
the the model guidance, the HWRF solution of Eta remaining just
offshore over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is considered to be an
outlier. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory track, and lies close to the simple-consensus models TVCA
and GFEX, which are a little to the right of the corrected-consensus
model, HCCA. Based on the new NHC track forecast, no changes are
required to the existing tropical cyclone warnings and watches in
effect.

Eta has rapidly intensified 20 kt during the past 12 h. Given the
much improved inner-core structure as noted in the SSMI/S imagery,
combined with sea-surface temperatures in excess of 29 deg C,
mid-level humidity values greater than 80 percent, and the already
impressive outflow pattern, Eta should continue to rapidly
strengthen until landfall occurs. The main question is: how much
strengthening will take place? Some of the more reliable intensity
guidance brings the cyclone up to 105-110 kt in 36 hours, with the
HWRF model bringing Eta to near category-4 strength. The new NHC
intensity forecast shows Eta as a major hurricane in 36 hours when
it is expected to be located just inland over northeastern
Nicaragua, but a stronger intensity is highly probable just before
landfall occurs. Rapid weakening is forecast thereafter while the
cyclone moves over the rugged, mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and
Honduras, with Eta possibly devolving into a large, quasi-stationary
Central American Gyre (CAG).

Key Messages:

1. Eta is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane by early Monday
morning. Additional strengthening is forecast thereafter, and Eta
is expected to be a major hurricane before it reaches the
northeastern coast of Nicaragua Monday night or early Tuesday, where
a Hurricane Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect for a portion of the northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. Through Friday evening, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El Salvador, southern Haiti, and the
Cayman Islands.

3. A life-threatening storm surge, along with damaging waves, is
expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near
and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water levels
could reach as high as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in
some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 14.9N 80.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 14.8N 81.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 14.5N 82.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 14.1N 83.4W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND
48H 04/0000Z 14.0N 84.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/1200Z 14.0N 85.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 05/0000Z 14.2N 86.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 06/0000Z 14.9N 88.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 07/0000Z 15.7N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-02 02:51


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 020249
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
1000 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020

...ETA CLOSE TO BECOMING A HURRICANE...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLASH FLOODING
AND LANDSLIDES EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 80.0W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM EST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 80.0 West. Eta is moving
toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue through Monday morning. A slower motion toward
the west-southwest is forecast by Monday afternoon and continuing
into Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Eta is expected
to approach the northeastern coast of Nicaragua Monday afternoon,
and make landfall within the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua
Monday night or early Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move
farther inland over northern Nicaragua through early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to continue during the next
36 hours, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane by early Monday
morning. Additional strengthening is likely thereafter, and Eta is
expected to be a major hurricane when landfall occurs Monday night
or early Tuesday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will
be investigating Eta later tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area beginning Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible in this area by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by
Monday afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday evening:

Much of Nicaragua and Honduras: 15 to 25 inches (380 to 635 mm),
isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510
mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Jamaica and southeast Mexico: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm),
isolated amounts of 15 inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

El Salvador, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches
(75 to 125 mm), isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to catastrophic, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain of Central America. Flash flooding and river
flooding would be possible across Jamaica, southeast Mexico, El
Salvador, southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM EST.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-02 02:51


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 020249
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
0300 UTC MON NOV 02 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 80.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 80.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 79.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 14.8N 81.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 14.5N 82.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 14.1N 83.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 14.0N 84.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 14.0N 85.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 14.2N 86.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 14.9N 88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 15.7N 88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 80.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 02/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-11-01 23:59


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 012357
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
700 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020

...ETA EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT...
...WILL BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND
FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM EST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 79.5W
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM EST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 79.5 West. Eta is moving
toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected tonight. A slower motion
toward the west-southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the
northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Monday, and make landfall within
the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua Monday night or early
Tuesday. The center of Eta is forecast to move inland over northern
Nicaragua through early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
24 to 36 hours, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane later
tonight, with additional strengthening likely until the hurricane
makes landfall Monday night or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central is 989 mb (29.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area beginning Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible in this area by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by
Monday afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday afternoon:

Central and northern Nicaragua into much of Honduras: 15 to 25
inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510
mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15
inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

Southern Haiti and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-11-01 20:56


Original Message :

WTNT44 KNHC 012053
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Eta Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020

Eta has continued to quickly become better organized today with an
increase in banding and the development of a central dense overcast
feature. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft that has provided a
couple of center fixes this afternoon has found a strengthening
tropical storm. The aircraft has reported a minimum pressure of
992 mb and a 30 n-mi-wide eye that is open to the southwest. A
blend of the SFMR and flight-level wind data support an initial wind
speed of 55 kt for this advisory. Given the much improved
inner-core structure as reported by the reconnaissance aircraft and
the favorable environmental conditions of low vertical wind shear
and high ocean heat content, additional strengthening is likely.
The intensity guidance is much higher this cycle, and the various
rapid intensification models show a much more significant chance of
rapid strengthening over the next 24 to 36 hours. The DTOPS model
indicates a 71 percent chance of a 30-kt increase in wind speed over
the next 24 hours, while the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows
a 53 percent chance of a 45-kt increase over the next 36 hours.
Based on the higher initial intensity and the more bullish
guidance, the NHC intensity forecast has been increased and
essentially calls for rapid strengthening until Eta reaches the
coast of Central America. Once inland, Eta should quickly weaken
over the mountainous terrain of Nicaragua and Honduras.

Eta is still moving steadily westward or 270 degrees at about 14
kt. A westward motion at a somewhat slower forward speed is
expected tonight. On Monday, Eta is forecast to turn southwestward
at a slower forward speed when a mid-level ridge builds to the
north and northwest of the cyclone. Eta is forecast to move inland
over northeastern Nicaragua within the Hurricane Warning area
Monday night or early Tuesday. The dynamical models are in
relatively good agreement through about 72 hours, expect for the
HWRF which shows a more northern track and keeps Eta offshore for
much of the period. This solution is considered an outlier at this
time, and the NHC track is in good agreement with the various
global models and the HFIP corrected consensus model. Some model
solutions still suggest Eta or its remnants will re-emerge over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea at or beyond day 5. The new NHC 5-day
position is still inland near the Gulf of Honduras close to the
various consensus aids, but large uncertainty exists in the
forecast at that time range due to the large spread in the track
guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Eta is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane tonight, and
additional strengthening is forecast before it reaches the
northeastern coast of Nicaragua Monday night or early Tuesday, where
a Hurricane Warning is in effect. A Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect for a portion of the northeastern coast of Honduras.

2. Through Friday afternoon, heavy rainfall from Eta will lead to
significant, life-threatening flash flooding and river flooding
across portions of Central America, along with landslides in areas
of higher terrain. Flash and river flooding is also possible across
Jamaica, Southern Haiti, and the Cayman Islands.

3. A life-threatening storm surge, along with damaging waves, is
expected along portions of the northeastern coast of Nicaragua near
and to the north of where the center makes landfall. Water
levels could reach as high as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels
in some parts of the hurricane warning area. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 14.9N 78.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 15.0N 80.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 14.7N 82.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 14.2N 83.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.8W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 04/0600Z 14.0N 84.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
72H 04/1800Z 14.1N 85.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 05/1800Z 14.7N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 06/1800Z 15.5N 88.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-01 20:55


Original Message :

WTNT34 KNHC 012052
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Eta Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL292020
400 PM EST Sun Nov 01 2020

...ETA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE OVERNIGHT...
...LIKELY TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND FLASH FLOODING AND LANDSLIDES TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 78.9W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON NIC/HON BORDER
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM ENE OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Honduras has issued a Tropical Storm Watch from
west of Punta Patuca westward to Punta Castilla.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The coast of Nicaragua from the Honduras/Nicaragua border to
Sandy Bay Sirpi

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* The northeastern coast of Honduras from Punta Patuca to the
Honduras/Nicaragua border

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* The northern coast of Honduras from west of Punta Patuca westward
to Punta Castilla

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in Nicaragua and Honduras should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM EST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Eta was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 78.9 West. Eta is moving
toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with some
decrease in forward speed is expected tonight. A slower motion
toward the west-southwest is forecast on Monday and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Eta is expected to approach the
northeastern coast of Nicaragua on Monday, and make landfall within
the Hurricane Warning area in Nicaragua Monday night or early
Tuesday. Eta is forecast to move inland over northern Nicaragua
through early Wednesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast during the next
24 to 36 hours, and Eta is expected to become a hurricane tonight,
with additional strengthening likely until the hurricane makes
landfall Monday night or early Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure reported by NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Eta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header
WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area beginning Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible in this area by Monday afternoon. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area by
Monday afternoon, and hurricane conditions are possible in
the Hurricane Watch area by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm
conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area by early
Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Eta is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts
through Friday afternoon:

Central and northern Nicaragua into much of Honduras: 15 to 25
inches (380 to 635 mm), isolated amounts of 35 inches (890 mm).

Eastern Guatemala and southern Belize: 10 to 20 inches (255 to 510
mm), isolated amounts of 25 inches (635 mm).

Portions of Panama and Costa Rica: 10 to 15 inches (255 to 380 mm),
isolated amounts of 20 inches (510 mm).

Jamaica: 5 to 10 inches (125 to 255 mm), isolated amounts of 15
inches (380 mm) over southern areas.

Southern Haiti and the Cayman Islands: 3 to 5 inches (75 to 125 mm),
isolated amounts of 10 inches (255 mm)

This rainfall would lead to significant, life-threatening flash
flooding and river flooding, along with landslides in areas of
higher terrain.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as
much as 10 to 15 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore
winds along the coast of Nicaragua within the hurricane warning
area, and 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the coast of
Honduras within the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast,
the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

SURF: Swells generated by Eta are expected to affect portions of
the coast of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM EST.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM EST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-11-01 20:55


Original Message :

WTNT24 KNHC 012052
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM ETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL292020
2100 UTC SUN NOV 01 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD TO PUNTA CASTILLA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM THE HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER TO
SANDY BAY SIRPI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO THE
HONDURAS/NICARAGUA BORDER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA WESTWARD
TO PUNTA CASTILLA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 78.9W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 78.9W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 78.4W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.0N 80.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 14.7N 82.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 14.2N 83.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.0N 83.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW