Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for MOLAVE-20
in Viet Nam, Laos, Philippines, Cambodia, Thailand

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 15N 105E
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1004HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 290000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 290000UTC 15N 105E
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 1004HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 282100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 15.4N 105.2E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 290900UTC 16.0N 102.9E 60NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 292100UTC 17.2N 100.1E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 282100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 282100UTC 15.4N 105.2E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 292100UTC 17.2N 100.1E 90NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MOLAVE IS LOCATED AT 15.3N, 105.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 15.3N 105.7E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 290600UTC 15.8N 103.5E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 291800UTC 16.8N 100.2E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 281800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281800UTC 15.3N 105.7E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291800UTC 16.8N 100.2E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 281800
WARNING 281800.
WARNING VALID 291800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2018 MOLAVE (2018) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 1000 HPA
AT 15.3N 105.7E LAOS MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 15.8N 103.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 16.8N 100.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 281646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 281500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE
ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 15.2N 106.7E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 290300UTC 15.5N 104.0E 35NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 291500UTC 16.0N 100.4E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 281500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281500UTC 15.2N 106.7E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM EAST 90NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291500UTC 16.0N 100.4E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR STS 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MOLAVE IS LOCATED AT 15.2N, 107.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2018 MOLAVE (2018) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 15.2N 107.2E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 290000UTC 15.4N 104.7E 25NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24HF 291200UTC 15.9N 101.3E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 281200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2018 MOLAVE (2018) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 281200UTC 15.2N 107.2E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 291200UTC 15.9N 101.3E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 281200
WARNING 281200.
WARNING VALID 291200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2018 MOLAVE (2018) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 990
HPA
AT 15.2N 107.2E LAOS MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 210 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 15.4N 104.7E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 15.9N 101.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 280900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280900UTC 15.2N 107.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 282100UTC 15.6N 105.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 290900UTC 15.9N 102.8E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 280900
WARNING 280900.
WARNING VALID 290900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 975 HPA
AT 15.2N 107.8E VIETNAM MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 15.6N 105.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290900UTC AT 15.9N 102.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 280900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280900UTC 15.2N 107.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 290900UTC 15.9N 102.8E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 280900
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201028072248
2020102806 21W MOLAVE 018 02 290 14 SATL SYNP 020
T000 154N 1085E 070 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 159N 1058E 035 R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 164N 1031E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 018
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 15.4N 108.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 108.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.9N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.4N 103.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 107.8E.
28OCT20. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1311E 30
2120102406 131N1301E 30
2120102412 134N1289E 35
2120102418 134N1277E 40
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102706 135N1134E 100
2120102706 135N1134E 100
2120102706 135N1134E 100
2120102712 139N1119E 105
2120102712 139N1119E 105
2120102712 139N1119E 105
2120102718 142N1113E 100
2120102718 142N1113E 100
2120102718 142N1113E 100
2120102800 149N1098E 90
2120102800 149N1098E 90
2120102800 149N1098E 90
2120102806 154N1085E 70
2120102806 154N1085E 70
2120102806 154N1085E 70
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 15.4N 108.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 108.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.9N 105.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.4N 103.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 107.8E.
28OCT20. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MADE LANDFALL AND HAS
BEGUN TO DETERIORATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A REMNANT EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI AND
CORROBORATED BY TRIANGULATION OF SURFACE WIND OBSERVATIONS,
INCLUDING ONE FROM DA NANG AIRPORT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70KTS
IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES PRIOR TO LANDFALL AND
CONSISTENT WITH MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE OBSERVATIONS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INCREASED (30KT+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
THIS, PLUS INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE
THE SYSTEM AS IT DRAGS ACROSS VIETNAM, LAOS, AND INTO THAILAND,
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MOLAVE IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 15.2N, 108.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 70KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED
PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 280746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 280600 UTC, TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT
POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (108.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 280446 CCA

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 280300 UTC, TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (14.7 N) ONE ZERO NINE
POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 45 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 15.2N 108.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 281800UTC 15.7N 105.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 290600UTC 15.9N 103.6E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 280600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280600UTC 15.2N 108.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 290600UTC 15.9N 103.6E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 280600
WARNING 280600.
WARNING VALID 290600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 970 HPA
AT 15.2N 108.7E VIETNAM MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 15.7N 105.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 15.9N 103.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 280300
WARNING 280300.
WARNING VALID 290300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 965 HPA
AT 14.8N 109.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 15.5N 106.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290300UTC AT 15.8N 104.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 280300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280300UTC 14.8N 109.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 281500UTC 15.5N 106.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 290300UTC 15.8N 104.1E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 280300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280300UTC 14.8N 109.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 290300UTC 15.8N 104.1E 50NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 280300
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201028012247
2020102800 21W MOLAVE 017 01 295 16 SATL 030
T000 149N 1098E 090 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 085 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 095 SE QD 110 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 155N 1072E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 160N 1045E 030
T036 165N 1019E 020
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 017
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 14.9N 109.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 109.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.5N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 16.0N 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.5N 101.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 109.1E.
28OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.
//
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1311E 30
2120102406 131N1301E 30
2120102412 134N1289E 35
2120102418 134N1277E 40
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102706 135N1134E 100
2120102706 135N1134E 100
2120102706 135N1134E 100
2120102712 139N1119E 105
2120102712 139N1119E 105
2120102712 139N1119E 105
2120102718 142N1113E 90
2120102718 142N1113E 90
2120102718 142N1113E 90
2120102800 149N1098E 90
2120102800 149N1098E 90
2120102800 149N1098E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 14.9N 109.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 109.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.5N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 16.0N 104.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.5N 101.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 109.1E.
28OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109 NM
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280000Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND
290300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTY-TWO) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MOLAVE IS LOCATED AT 14.5N, 109.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE
NOW DISTINCT. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM BY FT06. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 14.5N 109.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 281200UTC 15.4N 107.0E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
24HF 290000UTC 15.6N 104.7E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 280000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 280000UTC 14.5N 109.8E GOOD
MOVE WNW 17KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 290000UTC 15.6N 104.7E 42NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 280000
WARNING 280000.
WARNING VALID 290000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 955 HPA
AT 14.5N 109.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 17 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 15.4N 107.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 15.6N 104.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 272246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 272100 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (14.2 N) ONE ONE
ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 282100 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (105.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 292100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 272100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 14.3N 110.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
12HF 280900UTC 14.9N 107.6E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
24HF 282100UTC 15.3N 105.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 291800UTC 16.0N 101.0E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 272100
WARNING 272100.
WARNING VALID 282100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 950 HPA
AT 14.3N 110.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 14.9N 107.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 15.3N 105.0E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 272100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 272100UTC 14.3N 110.2E GOOD
MOVE WNW 15KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 240NM
FORECAST
24HF 282100UTC 15.3N 105.0E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 291800UTC 16.0N 101.0E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 272100
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201027201634
2020102718 21W MOLAVE 016 01 295 07 SATL 030
T000 142N 1113E 100 R064 065 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 115 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 155 SE QD 135 SW QD 200 NW QD
T012 150N 1087E 065 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 155N 1061E 035 R034 170 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 159N 1034E 025
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 016
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 111.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.0N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.5N 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.9N 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 110.6E.
27OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z, 281500Z AND 282100Z.
//
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1311E 30
2120102406 131N1301E 30
2120102412 134N1289E 35
2120102418 134N1277E 40
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102706 135N1134E 100
2120102706 135N1134E 100
2120102706 135N1134E 100
2120102712 139N1119E 105
2120102712 139N1119E 105
2120102712 139N1119E 105
2120102718 142N1113E 100
2120102718 142N1113E 100
2120102718 142N1113E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 14.2N 111.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 111.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.0N 108.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.5N 106.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.9N 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
272100Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 110.6E.
27OCT20. TYPHOON (TY) 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280300Z, 280900Z,
281500Z AND 282100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MOLAVE IS LOCATED AT 13.9N, 111.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LOWER SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS DISAPPEARED. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM BY FT12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 271946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 271800 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE
ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281800 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (105.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000010100
64062

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 13.9N 111.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 240NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 280600UTC 14.8N 108.4E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 281800UTC 15.2N 105.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 291800UTC 16.0N 101.0E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 13.9N 111.0E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 90NM EAST 60NM WEST
30KT 240NM NORTH 210NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 281800UTC 15.2N 105.5E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 291800UTC 16.0N 101.0E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 271800
WARNING 271800.
WARNING VALID 281800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 950 HPA
AT 13.9N 111.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 14.8N 108.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 15.2N 105.5E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 16.0N 101.0E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 271646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 271500 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE
ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281500 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 271500
WARNING 271500.
WARNING VALID 281500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 950 HPA
AT 13.5N 111.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280300UTC AT 14.5N 109.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 14.9N 106.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 271500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271500UTC 13.5N 111.7E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 280300UTC 14.5N 109.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 281500UTC 14.9N 106.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 291200UTC 16.2N 101.5E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 271500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271500UTC 13.5N 111.7E GOOD
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 281500UTC 14.9N 106.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 291200UTC 16.2N 101.5E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MOLAVE IS LOCATED AT 13.6N, 112.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
950HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM BY FT18. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 271500
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201027124518
2020102712 21W MOLAVE 015 01 285 14 SATL 015
T000 139N 1120E 105 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 146N 1093E 085 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 155 NW QD
T024 152N 1068E 045 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 157N 1042E 020
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 015
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 13.9N 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 112.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.6N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.2N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.7N 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 111.3E.
27OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 43 FEET. NEXTWARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND
281500Z.//
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1311E 30
2120102406 131N1301E 30
2120102412 134N1289E 35
2120102418 134N1277E 40
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102706 135N1134E 110
2120102706 135N1134E 110
2120102706 135N1134E 110
2120102712 139N1120E 105
2120102712 139N1120E 105
2120102712 139N1120E 105
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 271500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 13.9N 112.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 112.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.6N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.2N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.7N 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
271500Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 111.3E.
27OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
271200Z IS 43 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND
281500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 271346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 271200 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (13.7 N) ONE
ONE TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (112.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281200 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 13.6N 112.1E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 280000UTC 14.7N 109.6E 30NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 281200UTC 15.2N 106.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 291200UTC 16.2N 101.5E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 13.6N 112.1E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 15.2N 106.7E 42NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 291200UTC 16.2N 101.5E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 271200
WARNING 271200.
WARNING VALID 281200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 950 HPA
AT 13.6N 112.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 14.7N 109.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 15.2N 106.7E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 16.2N 101.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 271046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 270900 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE
TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280900 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (107.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290900 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 270900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 13.6N 112.7E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 272100UTC 14.5N 110.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 280900UTC 15.3N 107.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 290600UTC 15.8N 103.7E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 270900
WARNING 270900.
WARNING VALID 280900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 950 HPA
AT 13.6N 112.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 272100UTC AT 14.5N 110.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 15.3N 107.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 270900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 13.6N 112.7E GOOD
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 280900UTC 15.3N 107.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 290600UTC 15.8N 103.7E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 270900
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201027063744
2020102706 21W MOLAVE 014 01 280 13 SATL 015
T000 135N 1134E 110 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 143N 1108E 100 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 120 SW QD 210 NW QD
T024 150N 1082E 070 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD 060 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 154N 1056E 040 R034 130 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 159N 1031E 020
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 014
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 113.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 113.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.3N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.0N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.4N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.9N 103.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 112.8E.
27OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 45
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1311E 30
2120102406 131N1301E 30
2120102412 134N1289E 35
2120102418 134N1277E 40
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102706 135N1134E 110
2120102706 135N1134E 110
2120102706 135N1134E 110
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 113.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 113.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.3N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.0N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.4N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.9N 103.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 112.8E.
27OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 332 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 45
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271500Z, 272100Z, 280300Z AND 280900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 270746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 270600 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 945 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE
ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 90 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280600 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290600 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (105.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MOLAVE IS LOCATED AT 13.3N, 113.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 950HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 85KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 13.3N 113.4E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 271800UTC 14.2N 110.9E 25NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 280600UTC 15.1N 108.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 290600UTC 15.8N 103.7E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 13.3N 113.4E GOOD
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 15.1N 108.4E 42NM 70%
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 290600UTC 15.8N 103.7E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 270600
WARNING 270600.
WARNING VALID 280600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 950 HPA
AT 13.3N 113.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 14.2N 110.9E WITH 25 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 15.1N 108.4E WITH 42 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 15.8N 103.7E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 270446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 270300 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE
ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (113.9 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280300 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290300 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N)
ONE ZERO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (103.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 270300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270300UTC 13.3N 113.8E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 271500UTC 14.1N 111.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 280300UTC 15.0N 109.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 290000UTC 15.7N 104.6E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 270300
WARNING 270300.
WARNING VALID 280300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 950 HPA
AT 13.3N 113.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271500UTC AT 14.1N 111.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280300UTC AT 15.0N 109.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 270300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270300UTC 13.3N 113.8E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 280300UTC 15.0N 109.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 290000UTC 15.7N 104.6E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 270300
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201027013719
2020102700 21W MOLAVE 013 01 275 12 SATL 030
T000 133N 1147E 100 R064 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 139N 1121E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 147N 1095E 095 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 153N 1068E 055 R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 156N 1044E 025
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 013
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 114.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 114.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.9N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.7N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.3N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.6N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 114.1E.
27OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z,
271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
//
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1311E 30
2120102406 131N1301E 30
2120102412 134N1289E 35
2120102418 134N1277E 40
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102700 133N1147E 100
2120102700 133N1147E 100
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 114.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 114.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 13.9N 112.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.7N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.3N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.6N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 114.1E.
27OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z,
271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 270146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 270000 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE
ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (114.8 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280000 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290000 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (104.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 300000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MOLAVE IS LOCATED AT 13.3N, 114.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 80KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 13.3N 114.8E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 271200UTC 14.0N 112.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 280000UTC 15.0N 109.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 290000UTC 15.7N 104.6E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 13.3N 114.8E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 15.0N 109.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 290000UTC 15.7N 104.6E 75NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 270000
WARNING 270000.
WARNING VALID 280000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 955 HPA
AT 13.3N 114.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 14.0N 112.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 15.0N 109.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 15.7N 104.6E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 262246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 262100 UTC, SEVERE TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 950 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE
ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 85 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 240 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 330 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 272100 UTC
ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 282100 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 292100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 262100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 262100UTC 13.4N 115.4E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 270900UTC 13.9N 112.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 272100UTC 14.8N 110.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 281800UTC 15.5N 105.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 291800UTC 16.2N 100.2E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 262100
WARNING 262100.
WARNING VALID 272100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 965 HPA
AT 13.4N 115.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270900UTC AT 13.9N 112.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 272100UTC AT 14.8N 110.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 262100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 262100UTC 13.4N 115.4E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 272100UTC 14.8N 110.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE WNW 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 281800UTC 15.5N 105.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 291800UTC 16.2N 100.2E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 262100
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201026194408
2020102618 21W MOLAVE 012 01 270 18 SATL 030
T000 132N 1159E 090 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 190 NW QD
T012 137N 1132E 100 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 160 SE QD 140 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 144N 1106E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 151N 1080E 065 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 200 NW QD
T048 155N 1056E 040 R034 190 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 161N 0999E 025
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 012
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 115.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 115.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 13.7N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.4N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.1N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.5N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.1N 99.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 115.2E.
26OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.
//
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1311E 30
2120102406 131N1301E 30
2120102412 134N1289E 35
2120102418 134N1277E 40
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102606 134N1189E 80
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102612 132N1177E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
2120102618 132N1159E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 115.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 115.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 13.7N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.4N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.1N 108.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.5N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 16.1N 99.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 115.2E.
26OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 472
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z,
271500Z AND 272100Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MOLAVE IS LOCATED AT 13.4N, 116.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 75KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY FT48. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT36
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT60. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 13.4N 116.0E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 270600UTC 13.8N 113.5E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
24HF 271800UTC 14.4N 110.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 281800UTC 15.5N 105.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 291800UTC 16.2N 100.2E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 13.4N 116.0E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 271800UTC 14.4N 110.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 281800UTC 15.5N 105.5E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 291800UTC 16.2N 100.2E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 261800
WARNING 261800.
WARNING VALID 271800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 965 HPA
AT 13.4N 116.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 13.8N 113.5E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 14.4N 110.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 15.5N 105.5E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 16.2N 100.2E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 261646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 261500 UTC, TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE SIX
POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271500 UTC
ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (14.2 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281500 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (106.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 261500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261500UTC 13.2N 116.7E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
12HF 270300UTC 13.6N 113.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 271500UTC 14.2N 111.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 281200UTC 15.2N 106.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 291200UTC 15.9N 101.8E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 261500
WARNING 261500.
WARNING VALID 271500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 970 HPA
AT 13.2N 116.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270300UTC AT 13.6N 113.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271500UTC AT 14.2N 111.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 261500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261500UTC 13.2N 116.7E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 180NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 271500UTC 14.2N 111.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 281200UTC 15.2N 106.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 291200UTC 15.9N 101.8E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 261500
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201026134108
2020102612 21W MOLAVE 011 02 270 14 SATL 030
T000 133N 1177E 090 R064 045 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 155 NE QD 125 SE QD 105 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 136N 1150E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 142N 1124E 100 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 148N 1097E 090 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 200 NW QD
T048 154N 1071E 050 R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 000 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 158N 1022E 025
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 011
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 13.3N 117.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 117.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.6N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.2N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.8N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.4N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.8N 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 117.0E.
26OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1311E 30
2120102406 131N1301E 30
2120102412 134N1289E 35
2120102418 134N1277E 40
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102606 133N1191E 80
2120102606 133N1191E 80
2120102606 133N1191E 80
2120102612 133N1177E 90
2120102612 133N1177E 90
2120102612 133N1177E 90
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 011
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 13.3N 117.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 117.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.6N 115.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.2N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.8N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.4N 107.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.8N 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 117.0E.
26OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 569 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 261346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 261200 UTC, TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE SEVEN
POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (117.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271200 UTC
ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (14.0 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281200 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MOLAVE IS LOCATED AT 13.4N, 117.5E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 70KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY FT48. THE TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS
ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT60. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 13.4N 117.5E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 270000UTC 13.6N 114.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
24HF 271200UTC 14.1N 112.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 281200UTC 15.2N 106.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 291200UTC 15.9N 101.8E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 13.4N 117.5E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 60NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 271200UTC 14.1N 112.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 281200UTC 15.2N 106.4E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 291200UTC 15.9N 101.8E 120NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 261200
WARNING 261200.
WARNING VALID 271200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 970 HPA
AT 13.4N 117.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 13.6N 114.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 14.1N 112.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 15.2N 106.4E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 15.9N 101.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 261046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 260900 UTC, TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE ONE EIGHT
POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270900 UTC
ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (112.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280900 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (107.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 260900
WARNING 260900.
WARNING VALID 270900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 975 HPA
AT 13.6N 118.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 13.9N 115.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270900UTC AT 14.2N 112.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 260900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 13.6N 118.0E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 262100UTC 13.9N 115.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 270900UTC 14.2N 112.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 280600UTC 15.1N 108.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 290600UTC 15.6N 103.5E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 260900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 13.6N 118.0E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 270900UTC 14.2N 112.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 280600UTC 15.1N 108.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 290600UTC 15.6N 103.5E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 260900
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201026073756
2020102606 21W MOLAVE 010 02 285 15 SATL 030
T000 135N 1189E 080 R064 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 125 SE QD 110 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 139N 1162E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 143N 1136E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 170 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 148N 1109E 095 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 170 SE QD 130 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 155N 1082E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 163N 1035E 035
T096 166N 0982E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 010
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 118.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 118.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.9N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.3N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.8N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.5N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.3N 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.6N 98.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 118.2E.
26OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1311E 30
2120102406 131N1301E 30
2120102412 134N1289E 35
2120102418 134N1277E 40
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102518 132N1218E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102600 131N1204E 80
2120102606 135N1189E 80
2120102606 135N1189E 80
2120102606 135N1189E 80
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 010
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 118.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 118.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.9N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.3N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.8N 110.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.5N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.3N 103.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 16.6N 98.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 118.2E.
26OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z AND 270900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 19W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 260746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 260600 UTC, TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (13.3 N) ONE ONE EIGHT
POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (118.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270600 UTC
ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280600 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000010600
53529

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MOLAVE IS LOCATED AT 13.5N, 118.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT60. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 13.5N 118.8E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 261800UTC 13.7N 116.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
24HF 270600UTC 14.1N 113.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 280600UTC 15.1N 108.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 290600UTC 15.6N 103.5E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 13.5N 118.8E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 14.1N 113.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 280600UTC 15.1N 108.3E 60NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 290600UTC 15.6N 103.5E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 260600
WARNING 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 975 HPA
AT 13.5N 118.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 13.7N 116.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 14.1N 113.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 15.1N 108.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 15.6N 103.5E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 260446

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 260300 UTC, TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (13.2 N) ONE ONE NINE
POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (119.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270300 UTC
ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (13.7 N)
ONE ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (114.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280300 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 260300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 13.3N 119.5E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
12HF 261500UTC 13.5N 116.8E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 270300UTC 13.9N 113.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 280000UTC 14.8N 109.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 290000UTC 15.3N 104.3E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 260300
WARNING 260300.
WARNING VALID 270300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 980 HPA
AT 13.3N 119.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 13.5N 116.8E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270300UTC AT 13.9N 113.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 260300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 13.3N 119.5E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 270300UTC 13.9N 113.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 280000UTC 14.8N 109.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 290000UTC 15.3N 104.3E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 260300
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201026015333
2020102600 21W MOLAVE 009 02 275 17 SATL 030
T000 133N 1201E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 135N 1174E 085 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 139N 1148E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 144N 1122E 095 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 151N 1095E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 140 SE QD 090 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 158N 1043E 045
T096 163N 0990E 020
AMP
072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 009
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 120.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.5N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.9N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.4N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.1N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.8N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.3N 99.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 119.4E.
26OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 94 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z,
261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1311E 30
2120102406 131N1301E 30
2120102412 134N1289E 35
2120102418 134N1277E 40
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102518 132N1218E 75
2120102518 132N1218E 75
2120102518 132N1218E 75
2120102600 133N1201E 75
2120102600 133N1201E 75
2120102600 133N1201E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 120.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 120.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.5N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.9N 114.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.4N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.1N 109.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.8N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 16.3N 99.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 119.4E.
26OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 94 NM
SOUTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z,
261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
19W (SAUDEL) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MOLAVE IS LOCATED AT 13.2N, 120.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT60. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT72 DUE
TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 260146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 260000 UTC, TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE TWO ZERO
POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270000 UTC
ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N)
ONE ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (115.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280000 UTC
ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (14.9 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 13.2N 120.4E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 261200UTC 13.2N 117.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 270000UTC 13.6N 115.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 280000UTC 14.8N 109.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 290000UTC 15.3N 104.3E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 13.2N 120.4E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 13.6N 115.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 280000UTC 14.8N 109.8E 75NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 290000UTC 15.3N 104.3E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 260000
WARNING 260000.
WARNING VALID 270000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 980 HPA
AT 13.2N 120.4E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 13.2N 117.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 13.6N 115.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 14.8N 109.8E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 15.3N 104.3E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 252246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 252100 UTC, TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (13.2 N) ONE TWO ONE
POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 262100 UTC
ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (116.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 272100 UTC
ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (14.7 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 85 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 282100 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (106.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 292100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 252100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 252100UTC 13.2N 121.3E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260900UTC 13.3N 118.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 262100UTC 13.6N 115.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 271800UTC 14.4N 111.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 281800UTC 15.4N 105.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 291800UTC 15.3N 101.3E 170NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 252100
WARNING 252100.
WARNING VALID 262100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 980 HPA
AT 13.2N 121.3E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 13.3N 118.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 13.6N 115.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 252100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 252100UTC 13.2N 121.3E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 262100UTC 13.6N 115.9E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 271800UTC 14.4N 111.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 281800UTC 15.4N 105.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 252100
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201025195958
2020102518 21W MOLAVE 008 02 265 17 SATL 020
T000 132N 1218E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 132N 1191E 085 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 136N 1164E 095 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 140N 1138E 095 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 146N 1112E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 155N 1063E 055 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 159N 1013E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 008
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 13.2N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.6N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.0N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.6N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.5N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.9N 101.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 121.1E.
25OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 251800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z,
261500Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (SAUDEL)
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1311E 30
2120102406 131N1301E 30
2120102412 134N1289E 35
2120102418 134N1277E 40
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102506 134N1249E 65
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102512 133N1235E 70
2120102518 132N1218E 75
2120102518 132N1218E 75
2120102518 132N1218E 75
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 13.2N 121.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 121.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 13.2N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.6N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.0N 113.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.6N 111.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.5N 106.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.9N 101.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 121.1E.
25OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 96 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 251800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z,
261500Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (SAUDEL)
FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MOLAVE IS LOCATED AT 13.3N, 121.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP
AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY
UNTIL FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 251946

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 251800 UTC, TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (13.3 N) ONE TWO ONE
POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261800 UTC
ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N)
ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271800 UTC
ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281800 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 13.3N 121.9E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260600UTC 13.2N 119.3E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
24HF 261800UTC 13.5N 116.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 271800UTC 14.4N 111.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 281800UTC 15.4N 105.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 291800UTC 15.3N 101.3E 170NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 13.3N 121.9E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 261800UTC 13.5N 116.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 271800UTC 14.4N 111.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 281800UTC 15.4N 105.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 980 HPA
AT 13.3N 121.9E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 13.2N 119.3E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 13.5N 116.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 14.4N 111.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
960 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 15.4N 105.8E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 15.3N 101.3E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 251646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 251500 UTC, TYPHOON MOLAVE (2018) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE
970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF
ONE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (13.4 N) ONE TWO TWO
POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (122.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WEST AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 360 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 261500 UTC
ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (117.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 271500 UTC
ONE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (14.4 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (112.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 281500 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (107.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 291500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 251500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251500UTC 13.3N 122.3E FAIR
MOVE W 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260300UTC 13.3N 120.1E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 261500UTC 13.5N 117.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 271200UTC 14.2N 112.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 281200UTC 15.3N 107.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 291200UTC 15.5N 101.5E 170NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 251500
WARNING 251500.
WARNING VALID 261500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 980 HPA
AT 13.3N 122.3E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 19 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 13.3N 120.1E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 13.5N 117.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 251500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251500UTC 13.3N 122.3E FAIR
MOVE W 19KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 261500UTC 13.5N 117.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 271200UTC 14.2N 112.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 281200UTC 15.3N 107.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 21W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 13.5N 122.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 122.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.5N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.8N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.1N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.6N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.7N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.1N 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.3N 99.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 122.2E.
25OCT20. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 129 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z
IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201025141007
2020102512 21W MOLAVE 007 02 275 19 SATL RADR SYNP 040
T000 135N 1229E 065 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 135N 1201E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 138N 1174E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 141N 1147E 080 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T048 146N 1122E 085 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 157N 1072E 065 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 161N 1025E 030
T120 163N 0990E 020
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 007
1. TYPHOON 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 21W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 13.5N 122.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 122.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.5N 120.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.8N 117.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.1N 114.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.6N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.7N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 16.1N 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 16.3N 99.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 122.2E.
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1311E 30
2120102406 131N1301E 30
2120102412 134N1289E 35
2120102418 134N1277E 40
2120102500 134N1263E 50
2120102500 134N1263E 50
2120102506 134N1249E 60
2120102506 134N1249E 60
2120102512 135N1229E 65
2120102512 135N1229E 65
2120102512 135N1229E 65
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY MOLAVE IS LOCATED ON LAND AT 13.5N, 123.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
980HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 65KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT72. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL
FT96 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF
GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 13.5N 123.2E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 260000UTC 13.4N 120.7E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 261200UTC 13.5N 118.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 271200UTC 14.2N 112.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 281200UTC 15.3N 107.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 291200UTC 15.5N 101.5E 170NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 13.5N 123.2E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 261200UTC 13.5N 118.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 271200UTC 14.2N 112.6E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 281200UTC 15.3N 107.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 251200
WARNING 251200.
WARNING VALID 261200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 980 HPA
AT 13.5N 123.2E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 13.4N 120.7E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 13.5N 118.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 14.2N 112.6E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 15.3N 107.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 15.5N 101.5E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 251046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE (2018) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

AT 250900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MOLAVE (2018) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5
N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (124.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 260900 UTC
ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (13.3 N)
ONE ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (119.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 270900 UTC
ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (14.2 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 90 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 280900 UTC
ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (108.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 290900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 250900
WARNING 250900.
WARNING VALID 260900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 2018 MOLAVE (2018) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 980
HPA
AT 13.4N 124.3E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 13.3N 121.6E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 13.4N 119.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 13.4N 124.3E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 252100UTC 13.3N 121.6E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
24HF 260900UTC 13.4N 119.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 270600UTC 14.0N 114.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 280600UTC 15.2N 109.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
93HF 290600UTC 15.3N 103.9E 170NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 2018 MOLAVE (2018) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 13.4N 124.3E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 260900UTC 13.4N 119.0E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 270600UTC 14.0N 114.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 280600UTC 15.2N 109.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 250900
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201025085133
2020102506 21W MOLAVE 006 02 270 14 SATL 030
T000 134N 1249E 060 R050 040 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 135N 1222E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 136N 1194E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 138N 1169E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 142N 1142E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 150 SW QD 180 NW QD
T072 152N 1093E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 210 NW QD
T096 156N 1046E 045
T120 157N 0997E 025
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 13.4N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 124.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.5N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 13.6N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.8N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.2N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.2N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.6N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.7N 99.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 124.2E.
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1311E 30
2120102406 131N1301E 30
2120102412 134N1289E 35
2120102418 134N1277E 40
2120102500 134N1263E 50
2120102500 134N1263E 50
2120102506 134N1249E 60
2120102506 134N1249E 60
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 006
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 13.4N 124.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 124.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.5N 122.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 13.6N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.8N 116.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.2N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.2N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 15.6N 104.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 15.7N 99.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 124.2E.
25OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z, 252100Z, 260300Z AND
260900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MOLAVE IS LOCATED AT 13.4N, 124.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 55KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS
ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF
A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE PHILIPPINES
SOON. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT18 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT60 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT96. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2018 MOLAVE (2018) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 13.4N 124.7E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251800UTC 13.3N 122.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 260600UTC 13.4N 119.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 270600UTC 14.0N 114.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 280600UTC 15.2N 109.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 290600UTC 15.3N 103.9E 170NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2018 MOLAVE (2018) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 13.4N 124.7E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 30NM
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 260600UTC 13.4N 119.7E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 270600UTC 14.0N 114.3E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 280600UTC 15.2N 109.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 250600
WARNING 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2018 MOLAVE (2018) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM
990 HPA
AT 13.4N 124.7E PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 30 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 13.3N 122.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 13.4N 119.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 14.0N 114.3E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 15.2N 109.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 15.3N 103.9E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 13.4N 125.7E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251500UTC 13.4N 123.0E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 260300UTC 13.6N 120.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 270000UTC 13.8N 115.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 280000UTC 14.4N 110.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
93HF 290000UTC 15.1N 105.7E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 250300
WARNING 250300.
WARNING VALID 260300.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 994 HPA
AT 13.4N 125.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 13.4N 123.0E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 13.6N 120.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 13.4N 125.7E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 260300UTC 13.6N 120.6E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 270000UTC 13.8N 115.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 280000UTC 14.4N 110.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MOLAVE IS LOCATED AT 13.5N, 126.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE
CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP
UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS,
HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201025015027
2020102500 21W MOLAVE 005 02 270 14 SATL 030
T000 134N 1263E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 134N 1236E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 134N 1210E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 135N 1183E 070 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 139N 1156E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 147N 1106E 085 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T096 151N 1062E 060
T120 152N 1014E 035
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 13.4N 126.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 126.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.4N 123.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.4N 121.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.5N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.9N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.7N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.1N 106.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 15.2N 101.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 125.6E.
25OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 317
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z
AND 260300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1311E 30
2120102406 131N1301E 30
2120102412 134N1289E 35
2120102418 134N1277E 40
2120102500 134N1263E 55
2120102500 134N1263E 55
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 13.5N 126.4E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 251200UTC 13.6N 123.9E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
24HF 260000UTC 13.4N 121.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 270000UTC 13.8N 115.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 280000UTC 14.4N 110.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 290000UTC 15.1N 105.7E 200NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 13.5N 126.4E FAIR
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 13.4N 121.3E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 270000UTC 13.8N 115.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 280000UTC 14.4N 110.9E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 250000
WARNING 250000.
WARNING VALID 260000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 994 HPA
AT 13.5N 126.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 13.6N 123.9E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 13.4N 121.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 13.8N 115.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 14.4N 110.9E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 15.1N 105.7E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 13.5N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 250900UTC 13.6N 124.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 252100UTC 13.4N 121.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 261800UTC 13.7N 117.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 271800UTC 14.2N 111.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
93HF 281800UTC 15.0N 107.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
117HF 291800UTC 15.0N 104.7E 280NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 242100
WARNING 242100.
WARNING VALID 252100.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2018 MOLAVE (2018) 1000 HPA
AT 13.5N 127.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 13.6N 124.4E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 13.4N 121.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 13.5N 127.1E FAIR
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 252100UTC 13.4N 121.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
45HF 261800UTC 13.7N 117.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
69HF 271800UTC 14.2N 111.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201024194501
2020102418 21W MOLAVE 004 02 275 11 SATL 030
T000 135N 1278E 035 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 136N 1252E 045 R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 137N 1225E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 137N 1198E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 139N 1171E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 146N 1120E 080 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 180 NW QD
T096 154N 1073E 065 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 190 NW QD
T120 154N 1034E 040
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 13.5N 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 13.6N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.7N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 13.7N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.9N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.6N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.4N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.4N 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 127.1E.
24OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z
AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1311E 30
2120102406 131N1301E 30
2120102412 134N1289E 35
2120102418 135N1278E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 13.5N 127.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 127.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 13.6N 125.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 13.7N 122.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 13.7N 119.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 13.9N 117.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 14.6N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 15.4N 107.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 15.4N 103.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 127.1E.
24OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 21W (MOLAVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z
AND 252100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 13.3N, 128.8E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(MOLAVE) STATUS. TS MOLAVE IS LOCATED AT 13.4N, 127.8E.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000HPA AND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO
TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 13.4N 127.8E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
12HF 250600UTC 13.8N 125.2E 35NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
24HF 251800UTC 13.7N 122.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 261800UTC 13.7N 117.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 271800UTC 14.2N 111.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 281800UTC 15.0N 107.8E 200NM 70%
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
120HF 291800UTC 15.0N 104.7E 280NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2018 MOLAVE (2018) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 13.4N 127.8E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 13.7N 122.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
48HF 261800UTC 13.7N 117.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
72HF 271800UTC 14.2N 111.8E 140NM 70%
MOVE W 14KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 241800
WARNING 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2018 MOLAVE (2018) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 13.4N 127.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES NORTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 13.8N 125.2E WITH 35 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 13.7N 122.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 13.7N 117.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 14.2N 111.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 15.0N 107.8E WITH 200 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 15.0N 104.7E WITH 280 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201024145227
2020102412 21W TWENTYONE 003 02 275 10 SATL XTRP 050
T000 133N 1289E 035 R034 055 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 136N 1265E 045 R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 137N 1239E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 138N 1213E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 138N 1187E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T072 145N 1137E 080 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD
T096 154N 1094E 075 R064 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 158N 1057E 050 R034 160 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 13.3N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.6N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.7N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.8N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.8N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.5N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.4N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.8N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 128.3E.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1311E 30
2120102406 132N1299E 30
2120102412 133N1289E 35
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 13.3N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.6N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.7N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.8N 121.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 13.8N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 14.5N 113.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 15.4N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 15.8N 105.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 13.4N 128.3E.
24OCT20. TROPICAL STORM 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 467
NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 240900
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201024090209
2020102406 21W TWENTYONE 002 02 300 14 SATL 050
T000 132N 1299E 030
T012 137N 1278E 035 R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 140N 1254E 045 R034 130 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 141N 1230E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 141N 1205E 055 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 145N 1156E 075 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 150 SE QD 140 SW QD 180 NW QD
T096 154N 1110E 075 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 220 NW QD
T120 161N 1068E 055 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 190 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.7N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.0N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.1N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.1N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.5N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.4N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.1N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 129.4E.
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1311E 30
2120102406 132N1299E 30
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 240900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 002
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 129.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 129.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 13.7N 127.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 14.0N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 14.1N 123.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 14.1N 120.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 14.5N 115.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 15.4N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 16.1N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 129.4E.
24OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
443 NM NORTHWEST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241500Z, 242100Z, 250300Z AND
250900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN32 PGTW 240300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/231351ZOCT2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 12.5N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.3N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.6N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.6N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.5N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.6N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.6N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.4N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 130.7E.
24OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (SAUDEL) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF (WTPN21 PGTW 231400).//
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Original Message :

WTPN52 PGTW 240300
WARNING ATCG MIL 21W NWP 201024023943
2020102400 21W TWENTYONE 001 02 305 16 SATL 060
T000 125N 1312E 030
T012 133N 1290E 040 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 136N 1266E 045 R034 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 136N 1243E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 135N 1216E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 136N 1167E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 146N 1120E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 160 SE QD 160 SW QD 210 NW QD
T120 154N 1077E 055 R050 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 200 NW QD
AMP
120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 12.5N 131.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 131.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 13.3N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 13.6N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 13.6N 124.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.5N 121.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 13.6N 116.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 14.6N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.4N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
240300Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 130.7E.
24OCT20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (TWENTYONE), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 365 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KOROR, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 240000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 240900Z, 241500Z, 242100Z AND 250300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2120102100 73N1404E 15
2120102106 74N1397E 15
2120102112 78N1390E 15
2120102118 83N1383E 15
2120102200 88N1378E 20
2120102206 95N1374E 20
2120102212 102N1369E 20
2120102218 106N1357E 20
2120102300 107N1343E 20
2120102306 107N1339E 20
2120102312 112N1332E 20
2120102318 116N1325E 20
2120102400 125N1312E 30
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