Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for DELTA-20
in United States, Mexico, Cuba, Cayman Islands

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2020-10-11 04:53


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 110450
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta Advisory Number 26
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL262020
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...POST-TROPICAL DELTA CONTINUES TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 89.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood and Flash Flood watches remain in effect for areas in and
near the southern Appalachians.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta
was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 89.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 14
mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to become more
east-northeasterly on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 24-36 hours, as Delta's
surface low is expected to dissipate across West Virginia late
Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

RAINFALL: In the Appalachian region of far northeast Georgia,
the western Carolinas, and western Virginia, the remnants of Delta
are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, which could lead to
flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding.

From northern Alabama and the Tennessee Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic, 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected, with locally
higher amounts expected. Minimal hydrologic impacts are
expected.

Moderate to major river flooding will continue across the Calcasieu
and Vermilion river basins in Louisiana through much of next week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern
Alabama, Georgia, and upstate South Carolina tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hurley

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 34.0N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/1200Z 35.0N 87.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 12/0000Z 36.5N 84.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/1200Z 38.2N 81.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

>

2020-10-11 03:30


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 110327
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta Advisory Number 26
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL262020
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...POST-TROPICAL DELTA CONTINUES TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 89.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood and Flash Flood watches remain in effect for areas in and
near the southern Appalachians.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta
was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 89.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 14
mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to become more
east-northeasterly on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 24-36 hours, as Delta's
surface low is expected to dissipate across West Virginia late
Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

RAINFALL: In the Appalachian region of far northeast Georgia,
the western Carolinas, and western Virginia, the remnants of Delta
are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, which could lead to
flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding.

From northern Alabama and the Tennessee Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic, 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected, with locally
higher amounts expected. Minimal hydrologic impacts are
expected.

Moderate to major river flooding will continue across the Calcasieu
and Vermilion river basins in Louisiana through much of next week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern
Alabama, Georgia, and upstate South Carolina tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hurley

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 34.0N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/1200Z 35.0N 87.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 12/0000Z 36.5N 84.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/1200Z 38.2N 81.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

>

2020-10-11 02:56


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 110254
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...POST-TROPICAL DELTA CONTINUES TO BE A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT...

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 89.5W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF TUPELO MISSISSIPPI
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM SW OF NASHVILLE TENNESSEE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Flood and Flash Flood watches remain in effect for areas in and
near the southern Appalachians.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Delta
was located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 89.5 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near 14
mph (22 km/h) and this motion is expected to become more
east-northeasterly on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next 24-36 hours, as Delta's
surface low is expected to dissipate across West Virginia late
Sunday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

RAINFALL: In the Appalachian region of far northeast Georgia,
the western Carolinas, and western Virginia, the remnants of Delta
are expected to produce 3 to 6 inches of rain, which could lead to
flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor river flooding.

From northern Alabama and the Tennessee Valley into the
Mid-Atlantic, 1 to 3 inches of rain are expected, with locally
higher amounts expected. Minimal hydrologic impacts are
expected.

Moderate to major river flooding will continue across the Calcasieu
and Vermilion river basins in Louisiana through much of next week.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across eastern
Alabama, Georgia, and upstate South Carolina tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Hurley

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 34.0N 89.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/1200Z 35.0N 87.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 12/0000Z 36.5N 84.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/1200Z 38.2N 81.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

>

2020-10-10 16:03


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 101601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.10.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 106.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.10.2020 14.5N 106.2W WEAK
00UTC 11.10.2020 15.3N 106.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 132.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.10.2020 14.6N 132.2W WEAK
00UTC 11.10.2020 14.5N 134.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2020 14.4N 136.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2020 14.4N 139.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2020 14.1N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2020 14.0N 145.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2020 13.9N 147.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2020 14.0N 149.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 32.6N 91.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.10.2020 32.6N 91.0W MODERATE
00UTC 11.10.2020 33.5N 89.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2020 35.2N 87.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2020 36.1N 83.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 21.1N 114.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.10.2020 21.1N 114.1W WEAK
00UTC 15.10.2020 22.1N 115.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2020 23.8N 116.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2020 24.2N 118.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 33.0N 159.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.10.2020 33.2N 161.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 30.7N 16.9E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.10.2020 30.7N 16.9E WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101601

>

2020-10-10 14:44


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 101441
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Delta Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

Surface observations, Doppler radar data, and satellite imagery
indicate that Delta has continued to weaken as it moves from
northeastern Louisiana into western Mississippi. There are no
recent surface observations of sustained tropical-storm-force
winds in the areas where the radar data show the strongest winds
are occurring, so based on this the initial intensity is reduced to
30 kt. It should be noted that wind gusts to tropical-storm force
are still occurring over portions of northern Mississippi and
southeastern Arkansas, and these should continue through this
afternoon.

The initial motion is now northeastward or 035/14. The flow
between a mid-to upper-level ridge over the Gulf of Mexico and the
mid-latitude westerlies over the United States should steer Delta
or its remnants generally northeastward until the system
dissipates. The new forecast track has only minor adjustments from
the previous forecast, and it lies near the consensus models.

Continued weakening is expected, and Delta is forecast to
degenerate to a remnant low pressure area in about 24 h. The
global models are in good agreement that the cyclone should weaken
to a trough between 48-60 h, and the intensity forecast follows
this scenario.

This is the last advisory on Delta issued by the National Hurricane
Center. Future information on this system can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on
the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

Key Messages:

1. Water levels will continue to subside today along the
Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office for additional information.

2. Tropical-storm-force wind gusts will persist for a few more
hours over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern
Arkansas.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding and minor river
flooding across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys today, and into the Southern Appalachians through Sunday.
Minor to major river flooding will continue across portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi though much of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 33.1N 90.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 11/0000Z 34.1N 89.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/1200Z 35.5N 87.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/0000Z 37.5N 84.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/1200Z 39.7N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-10 14:43


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 101441
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Delta Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...DELTA WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION OVER WESTERN MISSISSIPPI...
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 90.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NNW OF JACKSON MISSISSIPPI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Delta
was located near latitude 33.1 North, longitude 90.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h),
and this motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward
speed through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of
Delta should move across western and northern Mississippi today and
into the Tennessee Valley tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Delta is
expected to decay to a remnant low pressure area on Sunday.
Greenwood, Mississippi, recently reported a wind gust of 43 mph
(69 km/h), and an automated station near Monticello, Arkansas,
recently reported a wind gust of 41 mph (66 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from surface observations is
994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

WIND: Wind gusts to tropical-storm force are possible this
afternoon over portions of northern Mississippi and southeastern
Arkansas.

STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to subside today along the
Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office for additional information.

RAINFALL: For eastern Arkansas and northern Mississippi, Delta is
expected to produce an additional 2 to 4 inches of rain, with
isolated storm totals of 10 inches. These rainfall amounts will lead
to flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in northern Alabama and
the Tennessee Valley into the Mid-Atlantic through the weekend.
There is a potential for 3 to 6 inches in the Southern to Central
Appalachians, which could lead to flash, urban, small stream, along
with isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible across parts of Alabama,
the Florida Panhandle, and western Georgia through early tonight.

SURF: Swells from Delta are gradually subsiding along the northern
Gulf coast. Please consult products from your local weather office
for additional information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last Public Advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center
beginning at 4 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header
WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-10 14:43


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 101441
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
1500 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 90.8W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.1N 90.8W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.6N 91.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.1N 89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.5N 87.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.5N 84.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.7N 82.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.1N 90.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN PUBLIC ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
BEGINNING AT 2100Z, UNDER AWIPS HEADER TCPAT1, WMO HEADER
WTNT31 KWNH, AND ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-10-10 11:53


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 101151
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
700 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...DELTA NOW OVER NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE NEAR ITS
PATH...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 91.3W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM E OF MONROE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

No coastal watches and warnings are in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 32.6 North, longitude 91.3 West. Delta is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion
toward the northeast is expected to begin later today and continue
through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta
should move across northeastern Louisiana this morning and then
across northern Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valley later
today and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Delta is
expected to become a tropical depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. Hawkins Field in Jackson, Mississippi recently
reported a wind gust of 51 mph (81 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 992 mb (29.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to subside today along the
Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office for additional information.

RAINFALL: For northern Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and western
Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce an additional 2 to 5
inches of rain, with isolated storm totals of 10 inches. These
rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor
river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic through the weekend. There is a potential for 3 to
6 inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to flash,
urban, small stream, along with isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
eastern Mississippi, Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and
western/central Georgia.

SURF: Swells from Delta are gradually subsiding along the northern
Gulf coast. Please consult products from your local weather office
for additional information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-10 08:38


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 100835
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Delta Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

Delta continues to track north-northeastward across Louisiana
bringing tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rains to portions of
Louisiana, Mississippi, and Arkansas. Doppler radar images show
that the storm is asymmetric, with most of the heavy rains occurring
on the north side of the circulation. Based on surface
observations, the initial intensity is lowered to 40 kt for this
advisory. Continued weakening is forecast, and Delta should become
a tropical depression later today, and dissipate entirely in a
couple of days.

The tropical storm is moving north-northeastward at 14 kt. A bend
to the northeast is expected to occur later today, and that motion
should continue until the system opens into a trough in 48 to 60
hours. Even though Delta is forecast to dissipate over or near
Kentucky, the moisture associated with its remnants will continue
northeastward and move across the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S.
early next week.


Key Messages:

1. Water levels will continue to subside today along the
Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office for additional information.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds will persist for a few more hours near
the path of Delta?--s center.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to flash flooding and minor river
flooding across portions of the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys today, and into the Southern Appalachians through Sunday.
Minor to major river flooding will continue across portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi though much of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 31.8N 91.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
12H 10/1800Z 33.2N 90.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/0600Z 34.4N 88.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1800Z 36.0N 86.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 12/0600Z 38.2N 83.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-10 08:37


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 100835
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...DELTA CONTINUES MOVING INLAND...
...HEAVY RAINS AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS CONTINUE NEAR ITS
PATH...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 91.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM SSE OF MONROE LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Cameron to Port
Fourchon, Louisiana, including Vermilion Bay.

The Tropical Storm Warning along the coast from High Island Texas to
the mouth of the Pearl River, including New Orleans, Lake
Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

No coastal watches and warnings are in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 91.8 West. Delta is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A motion
toward the northeast is expected to begin later today and continue
through Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta
should move across northeastern Louisiana this morning and
then across northern Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valley
later today and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and Delta is
expected to become a tropical depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center. A sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust
to 63 mph (102 km/h) was recently reported in Alexandria,
Louisiana. A sustained wind of 37 mph (59 mph) with a gust to 63
mph (102 km/h) was recently observed in Monroe, Louisiana.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Water levels will continue to subside today along the
Louisiana coast. Consult products issued by your local National
Weather Service forecast office for additional information.

RAINFALL: For northern Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and western
Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce an additional 2 to 5
inches of rain, with isolated storm totals of 10 inches. These
rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor
river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic through the weekend. There is a potential for 3 to
6 inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to flash,
urban, small stream, along with isolated minor river flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight across
eastern Mississippi, Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and
western/central Georgia.

SURF: Swells from Delta are gradually subsiding along the northern
Gulf coast. Please consult products from your local weather office
for additional information.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky

>

2020-10-10 08:37


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 100835
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
0900 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM CAMERON TO PORT
FOURCHON...LOUISIANA...INCLUDING VERMILION BAY.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALONG THE COAST FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 91.8W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 91.8W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 92.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.2N 90.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.4N 88.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 36.0N 86.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 38.2N 83.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.8N 91.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-10-10 05:58


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 100555
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
100 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2020

...DELTA NOW A TROPICAL STORM...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF
LOUISIANA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 92.3W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF ALEXANDRIA LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning from High Island Texas to Morgan City
Louisiana has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Port Fourchon to
Mouth of the Pearl River, Louisiana including Lake Borgne.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron to Port Fourchon, Louisiana including Vermilion Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 92.3 West. Delta is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through the morning. A motion toward
the northeast is expected this afternoon through Sunday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Delta should move across central
and northeastern Louisiana this morning and across northern
Mississippi and into the Tennessee Valley later today and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Delta should
become a tropical depression later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km).
A wind gust of 68 mph (110 km/h) was recently reported at LSU Tiger
Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Wind gusts of 55 mph (89 km/h)
were recently reported at Adams County airport in Natchez,
Mississippi and in Lacassine, Louisiana, and a gust to 59 mph (95
km/h) was just reported in Monroe, Louisiana.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 985 mb (29.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...4-6 ft
Cameron, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...2-4 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...2-4 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the AL/FL border including Lake Borgne, Lake
Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas and Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to Cameron, LA including Galveston Bay, Sabine
Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the
tropical storm warning area through the morning.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10
inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from
southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead
to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor
to major river flooding.

For extreme eastern Texas into northern Louisiana, southern
Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to
6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These
rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and
isolated minor river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6
inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated
flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible early this morning over
southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and over Alabama,
central and eastern Mississippi, southern Tennessee and the western
Florida Panhandle on Saturday.

SURF: Swells from Delta are still affecting portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Zelinsky

>

2020-10-10 04:04


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 100402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.10.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.3N 130.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.10.2020 15.3N 130.1W WEAK
12UTC 10.10.2020 14.5N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2020 14.1N 134.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2020 14.2N 136.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2020 14.1N 139.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2020 14.2N 142.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2020 14.1N 145.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2020 13.9N 147.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.10.2020 14.1N 150.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 13.5N 106.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.10.2020 13.5N 106.2W WEAK
12UTC 10.10.2020 14.7N 106.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2020 15.5N 106.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2020 16.6N 106.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2020 17.2N 107.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2020 17.5N 107.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.10.2020 18.6N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 29.9N 92.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.10.2020 29.9N 92.6W STRONG
12UTC 10.10.2020 32.4N 91.2W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.10.2020 33.7N 89.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.10.2020 35.1N 87.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2020 36.3N 84.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 10.8N 131.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.10.2020 11.0N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.10.2020 11.1N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.10.2020 11.3N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100402

>

2020-10-10 02:46


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 100236
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
0300 UTC SAT OCT 10 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM SABINE PASS...TX
TO CAMERON...LOUISIANA INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMERON TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...LOUISIANA INCLUDING
VERMILION BAY AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 92.6W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 25 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 210SE 240SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 92.6W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 92.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.7N 89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.1N 87.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 92.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-10-10 02:44


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 100241
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Delta made landfall around 23Z on the southwest Louisiana coast,
and has been weakening over land. Assuming a fairly rapid
weakening since landfall, the estimated current intensity is
around 65 kt. Delta will continue weakening, and should become a
tropical storm overnight. The system is likely to be reduced to a
tropical depression on Saturday. This is in reasonable agreement
with the NOAA corrected consensus prediction, HCCA.

Center position estimates from surface observations and satellite
imagery indicate that the motion is north-northeastward, or 025/13
kt. Over the next couple of days, Delta should turn northeastward
on the east side of a mid-level trough and move into the Tennessee
Valley region.

The official forecast shows dissipation in 72 hours, but the global
models suggest that this could occur a little sooner. Nonetheless,
the vorticity and moisture remnants of Delta are likely to move over
the northeastern United States early next week.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is still occurring along portions
of the Louisiana coast, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect from
Cameron, Louisiana, eastward to the Mouth of the Pearl River.
Water levels will slowly subside on Saturday as Delta moves farther
inland.

2. Tropical-storm-force winds and gusts to hurricane force will
continue to spread inland overnight across portions of Louisiana
near the path of Delta?--s center.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor
to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana through Saturday.
Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 30.6N 92.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
12H 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 11/0000Z 33.7N 89.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/1200Z 35.1N 87.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 12/0000Z 37.0N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-10 02:44


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 100240
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...DELTA CONTINUES MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
STILL OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 92.6W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Sabine Pass,
Texas to Cameron, Louisiana, including Calcasieu Lake.

The Tropical Storm Warning west of High Island Texas has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Cameron to the Mouth of the Pearl River, Louisiana including
Vermilion Bay and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Delta is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue through Saturday morning. A motion toward
the northeast is then expected through Sunday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Delta should move across central and
northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning. After that
time, the system is forecast to move across northern Mississippi
and into the Tennessee Valley.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 75 mph (120 km/h) with
higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast, and Delta should
become a tropical storm, and then a tropical depression, on
Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...6-10 ft
Cameron, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...4-6 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...3-5 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River to the AL/FL border including Mobile
Bay...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to Cameron, LA including Galveston Bay, Sabine
Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...1-3 ft

Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances.
For information specific to your area, please see products issued
by your local National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane
warning area, and should continue during the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the
tropical storm warning areas through early Saturday.

RAINFALL: Through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to 10
inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from
southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead
to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor
to major river flooding.

For extreme eastern Texas into northern Louisiana, southern
Arkansas, and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to
6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These
rainfall amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and
isolated minor river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6
inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated
flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight over southern
portions of Louisiana and Mississippi, and over Alabama, central and
eastern Mississippi, southern Tennessee and the western Florida
Panhandle on Saturday.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and
western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-10 01:58


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 100156
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
900 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...9 PM CDT POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...
...STRONG WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD INLAND ACROSS LOUISIANA...

Strong winds from Delta continue to spread inland across Louisiana.
Opelousas St. Landry Parish Airport recently reported a sustained
wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h).

This will be the final hourly Tropical Cyclone Update issued to
update Delta's position and intensity. The next full advisory will
be issued at 10 PM CDT (0300 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 900 PM CDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.4N 92.7W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM N OF JENNINGS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM ENE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-10-10 01:00


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 100058
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
800 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...8 PM CDT POSITION AND INTENSITY UPDATE...

Although Delta is moving farther inland, strong winds continue
along the coast of southwestern Louisiana. Calcasieu Pass reported
a sustained wind of 70 mph (113 km/h) and a gust to 86 mph
(138 km/h) during the past hour.

New Iberia reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust
to 86 mph (138 km/h) within the past hour.


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CDT...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 92.9W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM WSW OF JENNINGS LOUISIANA
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-10-09 23:54


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 092352
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
700 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...DELTA JUST INLAND ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA COAST...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE
OCCURRING WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 93.0W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM WSW OF JENNINGS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning from High Island, Texas to Sabine Pass has
been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning west of San Luis Pass, Texas has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* East of Sabine Pass to the Mouth of the Pearl River including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to San Luis Pass, Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 93.0 West. Delta is moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday morning. A motion toward the
northeast is then expected through Sunday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Delta should move across central and
northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning. After that
time, the system is forecast to move across northern Mississippi
into the Tennessee Valley.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid weakening is expected overnight and Saturday. Delta
is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm tonight and to a tropical
depression on Saturday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). The National Weather Service office at Lake Charles
reported sustained winds of 64 mph (103 km/h) with gusts to 95 mph
(153 km/h) at the airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-6 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...2-4 ft
Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River to the AL/FL border including Mobile
Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to Sabine Pass including Galveston Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane
warning area, and should continue during the next few hours.
Tropical storm conditions will continue within portions of the
tropical storm warning areas through early Saturday.

RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to
10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from
southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead
to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor
to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas,
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor
river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6
inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated
flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible through tonight over the
southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and
western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-09 23:02


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 092300
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
600 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...DELTA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CREOLE LOUISIANA...

National Weather Service Doppler radar imagery, Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data, and surface observations indicate
that Delta has made landfall near Creole, Louisiana, around 600 PM
CDT (2300 UTC) with estimated maximum sustained winds of 100 mph
(155 km/h). Delta is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. The minimum central pressure estimated from
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 970 mb (28.64
inches).

A Florida Coastal Monitoring Tower near Lake Arthur, Louisiana,
recently reported a sustained wind of 77 mph (123 km/h) and a gust
to 96 mph (154 km/h).

A NOAA National Weather Service water level gauge at Freshwater
Canal Locks, Louisiana, recently reported storm surge inundation of
over 8 feet above ground level.


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 93.1W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF CREOLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM E OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-09 21:59


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 092157
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...5 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...EYEWALL OF DELTA MOVING ONSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF
LOUISIANA...

A NOAA National Ocean Service water level gauge at Freshwater Canal
Locks, Louisiana, recently reported storm surge inundation of over
7 feet above ground level.

A WeatherFlow observing site near Cameron, Louisiana, recently
reported a sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a wind gust to
78 mph (125 km/h)

The Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network station at Texas Point
recently reported sustained winds of 65 mph (105 km/h) and a wind
gust of 74 mph (119 km/h).

A wind gust to 71 mph (114 km/h) has been reported at the Jack
Brooks Regional Airport near Port Arthur, Texas, within the past
couple of hours.


SUMMARY OF 500 PM CDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.5N 93.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.58 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-09 20:58


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 092056
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
WSR-88D Doppler radar data indicate that Delta has weakened some
more since the last advisory. The eye structure on the radar has
become less organized, with about 50 percent of the eyewall
remaining in the northern semicircle. The aircraft reported maximum
700-mb flight-level winds have decreased to the 100-105 kt range,
along with maximum SFMR surface wind estimates in the 80-85 kt
range. In addition, the central pressure has risen to near 966 mb.
Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 90 kt.

The initial motion is now north-northeastward or 015/12 kt, with the
hurricane moving between a deep-layer ridge over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough over the U.S. Southern
Plains. This motion should continue through the next 24 h or so,
followed by a turn toward the northeast as Delta or its remnants
move along the southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies. While
the track guidance remains tightly clustered, the guidance is a
little faster than the previous run. So, the new track forecast is
similar in direction, but slightly faster than the previous one.
The forecast track has the center of Delta making landfall in
southwestern Louisiana in the next few hours and then moving across
central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning.
After that, the system should move across northern Mississippi into
the Tennessee Valley before it dissipates.

Increasing vertical shear and decreasing oceanic heat content along
the forecast track could cause a little more weakening in the last
few hours before landfall. However, there will still be
significant impacts from winds and storm surge (see Key Messages
below). After landfall, rapid weakening is anticipated, with Delta
expected to weaken to a tropical storm tonight and to a tropical
depression by Saturday afternoon. As in the last advisory, the
cyclone is forecast to dissipate between 60-72 h based on the
consensus of the global models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is occurring and will continue near
and east of where Delta makes landfall this evening, and a Storm
Surge Warning is in effect from High Island, Texas, to the Mouth of
the Pearl River, Louisiana. The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet
is expected somewhere between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan
City, Louisiana.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected this afternoon and evening
within portions of the Hurricane Warning area, especially along the
coast of southwest Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds will also
spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of
Delta?--s center this evening and tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor
to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana today and Saturday.
Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 29.3N 93.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 31.1N 92.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1800Z 33.1N 91.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0600Z 34.4N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1800Z 35.9N 87.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/0600Z 37.6N 84.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-09 20:55


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 092052
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
2100 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING
CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 93.2W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 140SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 210SE 240SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 93.2W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 93.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.1N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 130SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.1N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 20NE 40SE 20SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.4N 89.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.9N 87.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 37.6N 84.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 93.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 10/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-10-09 19:58


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 091955
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
300 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...3 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST
OF LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...

A NOAA National Ocean Service water level gauge at Freshwater Canal
Locks, Louisiana, recently reported storm surge inundation of more
than 4.5 feet above ground level.

The Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network station at Texas Point
recently reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind
gust of 70 mph (113 km/h).

A wind gust to 55 mph (89 km/h) has been reported at the Jack
Brooks Regional Airport near Port Arthur, Texas, within the past
hour.

A wind gust of 60 mph (97 km/h) has been observed at Nederland,
Texas.

A WeatherFlow observing site near Cameron, Louisiana, recently
reported a wind gust to 51 mph (82 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 300 PM CDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.1N 93.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-09 18:57


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 091855
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
200 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...2 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...WATER LEVELS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST OF LOUISIANA AS THE
CENTER OF DELTA MOVES CLOSER...

A NOAA National Ocean Service water level gauge at Freshwater Canal
Locks, Louisiana, recently reported storm surge inundation of a
little over 4 feet above ground level.

The Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network station at Texas Point
recently reported sustained winds of 53 mph (85 km/h) and a wind
gust of 64 mph (103 km/h).

A wind gust to 51 mph (81 km/h) has been reported at the Jack Brooks
Regional Airport near Port Arthur, Texas, within the past hour.

A WeatherFlow observing site near Cameron, Louisiana, recently
reported a wind gust to 44 mph (71 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 93.5W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-09 17:58


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 091756
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
100 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...DELTA NOW MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN
LOUISIANA COAST...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
IN THE LANDFALL AREA DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 93.6W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Pearl River including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 93.6 West. Delta is now moving
toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion
should continue through Saturday morning. A turn toward the
northeast is expected later on Saturday. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta should make landfall along the coast of southwestern
Louisiana during the next several hours, and then move across
central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Slow weakening is expected before landfall, with rapid
weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). The Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network
station at Texas Point recently reported sustained winds of 50 mph
(80 km/h) and a wind gust of 57 mph (92 km/h). Lake Charles
Regional Airport recently reported a wind gust of 60 mph (96 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft
Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to the AL/FL border including Mobile
Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure,
or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest
storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible
changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions
already occuring. Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread
onshore within portions of the tropical storm warning areas during
the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to
10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from
southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead
to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor
to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas,
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor
river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6
inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated
flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and
western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-09 16:59


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 091657
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1200 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...12 PM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONTO THE LOUISIANA COAST...

An automated observing site at Texas Point along the coast near the
Texas/Louisiana border recently reported sustained winds of 45 mph
(72 km/h) and a gust of 59 mph.

The Galveston buoy (42035) located about 25 miles (40 km) east of
Galveston, Texas, reported a peak sustained wind of 52 mph (83 km/h)
and a gust to 60 mph (96 km/h) within the past hour.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 93.7W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-09 16:00


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 091556
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...11 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS SPREADING ONTO THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST......

A Texas Coastal Ocean Observation Network station at the
Galveston Bay North Jetty recently reported sustained winds of
42 mph (68 km/h) and a wind gust of 49 mph (78 km/h).


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM CDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 93.7W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-09 14:50


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 091448
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that Delta has weakened a little since the last advisory.
The central pressure has risen to 962 mb, and the strongest 700-mb
flight-level winds reported by the NOAA plane were 107 kt. In
addition, SFMR wind estimates have been in the 85-95 kt range.
Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 100 kt.

Delta is moving northward or 360/11 kt between a deep-layer ridge
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to upper-level trough
over the U.S. Southern Plains. A turn toward the north-northeast
is expected during the next few hours, and the center is forecast
to cross the southwestern coast of Louisiana late this afternoon
or this evening. After landfall, a continued north-northeastward
motion should bring the center across central and northeastern
Louisiana by the 24 h point. Thereafter, Delta is expected to move
generally northeastward through the lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys until it dissipates. The track forecast guidance remains
tightly clustered, and the new forecast track is little changed
from the previous forecast.

Increasing vertical shear and decreasing oceanic heat content along
the forecast track should cause Delta to continue to weaken before
landfall. However, there will still be significant impacts from
winds and storm surge (see Key Messages below). After landfall,
rapid weakening is anticipated, with Delta expected to weaken to a
tropical storm tonight and to a tropical depression by Saturday
afternoon or evening. The cyclone is forecast to dissipate
between 60-72 h based on the consensus of the global models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where
Delta makes landfall this evening, and a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect from High Island, Texas, to the Mouth of the Pearl River.
The highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere
between Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana.
Water levels in this area will rise quickly this afternoon and
evening as Delta approaches and efforts to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected this afternoon and evening
within portions of the Hurricane Warning area, especially along the
coast of southwest Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also
spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of
Delta?--s center this evening and tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor
to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana today and Saturday.
Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 28.0N 93.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 30.0N 93.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0000Z 33.7N 90.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/1200Z 35.0N 88.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 12/0000Z 36.7N 86.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-09 14:50


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 091448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...CENTER OF DELTA MOVING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
COAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 93.8W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 0 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Pearl River including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 93.8 West. Delta is moving
toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north-
northeast is expected this afternoon, followed by a northeastward
motion during the day Saturday. On the forecast track, the center
of Delta should make landfall along the coast of southwestern
Louisiana later this afternoon or this evening, and then move across
central and northeastern Louisiana tonight and Saturday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected before landfall,
with rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km). NOAA buoy 42019 located west of the center of Delta
recently reported sustained winds of 49 mph (79 km/h) and a wind
gust of 60 mph (97 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft
Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to the AL/FL border including Mobile
Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure,
or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest
storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible
changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions
beginning within this area in the next few hours. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas during the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to
10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from
southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead
to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor
to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas,
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor
river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6
inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated
flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and
western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-09 14:50


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 091447
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
1500 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER INCLUDING
CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR
A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 93.8W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 0 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 93.8W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 93.8W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.2N 91.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.7N 90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.0N 88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.7N 86.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 93.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-10-09 12:02


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 091159
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
700 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...RAINBANDS OF DELTA SPREADING INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 93.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Mouth of the Pearl River Louisiana including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 93.8 West. Delta is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected
to continue today followed by a north-northeastward motion by
tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move
inland within the hurricane warning area this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected to begin as Delta
approaches the northern Gulf coast later today, with rapid weakening
expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...2-4 ft
Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to the AL/FL border including Mobile
Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure,
or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest
storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible
changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions
expected within this area later this morning. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas later today.

RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to
10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from
southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead
to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor
to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas,
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor
river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6
inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated
flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and
western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-09 08:47


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 090845
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

Delta has been generally steady in strength during the past several
hours as it starts to close in on the southwestern Louisiana coast.
An eye has occasionally been evident in geostationary satellite
images, and deep convection remains quite intense around that
feature. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters recently found have been
investigating Delta this morning, and recently reported maximum
flight-level winds of 125 kt and peak SFMR surface winds of 99 kt.
Based on a blend of this data, the initial intensity is held at
105 kt. The hurricane appears to be leveling off in strength as
recent microwave passes show some asymmetry in the eyewall and
vertical tilt due to southwesterly shear. The core of the hurricane
passed very close to NOAA buoy 42002 a few hours ago, and the
pressure at the buoy fell to 953 mb. The buoy also reported peak
winds around 70 kt and a significant wave height of about 35 ft.

The major hurricane is now moving northward at 10 kt. The track
forecast models remain quite consistent. Delta is forecast to
continue moving northward today and then turn north-northeastward
tonight between a ridge over the western Atlantic and a trough over
the south-central United States. This motion is expected to take
the core of the hurricane to the Louisiana coast this evening.
After landfall, a turn to the northeast is forecast as a larger
trough moves eastward toward Delta, and that motion should continue
until the cyclone dissipates over Tennessee or Kentucky in a few
days. The models remain tightly clustered, and only minor tweaks
were made to the previous NHC track forecast.

Delta is expected to move over waters with progressively lower
oceanic heat content as it approaches the Louisiana coast. These
less favorable oceanic conditions combined with an increase in
southwesterly shear should cause Delta to weaken a little before
it moves onshore. Regardless, Delta is forecast to be near major
hurricane intensity when it makes landfall and significant impacts
are expected (see Key Messages below). After landfall, rapid
weakening is anticipated and Delta is forecast to fall below
hurricane strength tonight or early Saturday and dissipate in about
3 days.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where
Delta makes landfall this evening, and a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The
highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Residents
in the warning area should promptly follow advice given by local
officials. The storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast
decrease in intensity before landfall since Delta is a relatively
large hurricane.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected this afternoon and evening
somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island,
Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also
spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of
Delta?--s center this evening and tonight.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor
to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana today and Saturday.
Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 26.9N 93.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 28.6N 93.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 31.1N 92.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/1800Z 32.9N 91.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0600Z 34.2N 89.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/1800Z 35.6N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-09 08:46


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 090843
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...MAJOR HURRICANE DELTA HEADED TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 93.7W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch from east of the mouth of the Pearl River
to Bay St. Louis Mississippi has been discontinued.

A Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued from Ocean Springs, MS
to Mouth of the Pearl River, LA including Lake Pontchartrain and
Lake Maurepas

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Mouth of the Pearl River Louisiana including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 93.7 West. Delta is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue today followed by a north-northeastward motion
by tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move
inland within the hurricane warning area this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Slow weakening is expected to begin as Delta
approaches the northern Gulf coast later today, with rapid
weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters and NOAA buoy 42002 is 953 mb (28.15
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...4-7 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Mouth of the Pearl River...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to the AL/FL border including Mobile
Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3
ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure,
or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest
storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible
changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions
expected within this area later this morning. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas later today.

RAINFALL: Today through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5 to
10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches, from
southwest into central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts will lead
to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along with minor
to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas,
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and isolated minor
river flooding.

As the remnants of Delta move further inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain,
with locally higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley
and Mid Atlantic this weekend. There is a potential for 3 to 6
inches in the Southern Appalachians, which could lead to isolated
flash, urban, and small stream flooding.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible today and tonight over
southern portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and
western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-09 08:45


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 090843
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
0900 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER
TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM OCEAN SPRINGS...MS
TO MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...LA INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND
LAKE MAUREPAS

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER LOUISIANA INCLUDING
CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS
A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 93.7W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 93.7W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 93.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 28.6N 93.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.1N 92.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 32.9N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.2N 89.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.6N 87.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 93.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-10-09 05:54


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 090552
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
100 AM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...MAJOR HURRICANE DELTA HEADED TOWARD SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 93.6W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 26.2 North, longitude 93.6 West. Delta is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
north is forecast during the next few hours, followed by a
north-northeastward motion by tonight. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on
today, and then move inland within the hurricane warning area this
evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight strengthening is possible
overnight. Slow weakening is expected to begin as Delta approaches
the northern Gulf coast later today, with rapid weakening expected
after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). NOAA buoy 42002 near Delta's eastern eyewall
recently reported a sustained wind of 78 mph (126 km/h) and a wind
gust to 99 mph (159 km/h). The buoy also reported a significant
wave height of about 35 feet (almost 11 meters).

The minimum central pressure based on data by from the NOAA and Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 953 mb (28.14 inches). NOAA buoy
42002 very near the center of Delta also recently reported a minimum
pressure of 953 mb (28.14 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...4-7 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure,
or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest
storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible
changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by this afternoon, with tropical storm conditions
expected within this area later this morning. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas later today, and are possible within the tropical storm watch
area by tonight.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5
to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches,
from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts
will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along
with minor to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor
river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid-
Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: There is a risk of a few tornadoes today over southern
portions of Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and
western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-09 02:39


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 090237
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

Reports from Air Force and NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating Delta indicate that the hurricane strengthened a
little more this evening. Peak flight-level winds were 120 kt, and
the highest SFMR-observed surface winds were 98 kt. Using a blend
of adjusted flight-level and surface wind observations, the current
intensity estimate is set at 105 kt. The eye became obscured on
satellite images a couple of hours ago, but recently it has become
apparent again. Delta could intensify a little more within the next
6 hours or so. Thereafter, sharply decreasing oceanic heat content,
significantly increasing west-southwesterly shear, and drier
mid-level air should cause weakening. The official intensity
forecast through landfall is above most of the model guidance.
However, even 24-hour tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are
still subject to an uncertainty of 1 Saffir-Simpson category, so
one should not focus on the exact official landfall intensity
forecast. Moreover, even if Delta weakens some, it will still have
serious storm surge impacts due to its large size.

Aircraft and satellite center fixes show that the hurricane is
gradually turning toward the right. The motion is now
north-northwestward, or 340/10 kt. Delta should turn northward on
Friday as it moves on the western side of a mid-tropospheric high
pressure area. Later on Friday, a 500-mb shortwave trough over the
southern United States is likely to cause the tropical cyclone to
turn north-northeastward and cross the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast. Delta should then move northeastward on the eastern side of
the trough over the southeastern United States for the next day or
two before dissipating near Kentucky. The official track forecast
is very close to the previous NHC track, and in very good agreement
with the various consensus track predictions.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where
Delta makes landfall Friday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect
from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The highest
inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller
Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Residents in the warning
area should promptly follow advice given by local officials. The
storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast decrease in
intensity before landfall since Delta is a relatively large
hurricane.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Friday afternoon and evening
somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island,
Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also
spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of
Delta?--s center Friday evening and Friday night.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor
to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana Friday and Saturday.
Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 25.7N 93.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 27.4N 93.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 29.8N 93.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
36H 10/1200Z 32.0N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 11/0000Z 33.5N 90.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/1200Z 34.9N 88.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 12/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg

>

2020-10-09 02:38


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 090235
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...DELTA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.7N 93.6W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 25.7 North, longitude 93.6 West. Delta is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward
the north is forecast overnight, followed by a north-northeastward
motion Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Delta will move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday,
and then move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday
afternoon or Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some slight additional
strengthening is possible overnight. Weakening is expected to
begin as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday, with
rapid weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km). NOAA buoy 42002 near Delta's northwestern eyewall
recently reported a sustained wind of 63 mph (101 km/h) and a wind
gust to 76 mph (122 km/h). The buoy also reported a significant
wave height just over 29 feet (almost 9 meters).

The minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force Hurricane
Hunter Aircraft is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...4-7 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure,
or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest
storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible
changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm
conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas on Friday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch
area Friday night.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5
to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches,
from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts
will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along
with minor to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor
river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid-
Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: There is a risk of a few tornadoes beginning late
tonight and continuing through Friday over southern portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta are affecting portions of the northern and
western Gulf coast. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-09 02:37


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 090235
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
0300 UTC FRI OCT 09 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING
CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS
A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 93.6W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.7N 93.6W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 93.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 27.4N 93.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.8N 93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 140SE 90SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.0N 91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.5N 90.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 34.9N 88.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 36.5N 87.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.7N 93.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-10-08 23:55


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 082353
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
700 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...DELTA EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND A
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 93.5W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 25.3 North, longitude 93.5 West. Delta is moving
toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the
north is forecast overnight, followed by a north-northeastward
motion Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center
of Delta will move over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday,
and then move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday
afternoon or Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible tonight.
Some weakening is anticipated as Delta approaches the northern Gulf
coast on Friday, with rapid weakening expected after the center
moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km). NOAA buoy 42002, just to the north of Delta's
center, recently measured a sustained wind of 54 mph (86 km/h) and
a wind gust to 65 mph (104 km/h).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Hurricane Hunter
observations is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...4-7 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure,
or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest
storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible
changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm
conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas on Friday, and are possible within the tropical storm watch
area Friday night.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5
to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches,
from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts
will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along
with minor to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor
river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid-
Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: There is a risk of a few tornadoes beginning late
tonight and continuing through Friday over southern portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast during the next several hours.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-08 21:02


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 082100
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

Delta is strengthening. In satellite imagery, an eye is now seen in
the cold cloud tops of the central dense overcast. On the aircraft
side, just received reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft included 700-mb flight-level winds of 119 kt, SFMR
winds estimates near 90 kt, and a central pressure of 959 mb inside
a 30 n mi wide eye. A blend of the flight-level and SFMR wind
estimates give an initial intensity of 100 kt, and Delta is again a
major hurricane.

The initial motion is now northwestward or 320/10 kt. There is no
change to the track forecast philosophy and little change to the
track forecast from the previous advisory. During the next 12-24 h,
Delta should turn to the north between a mid- to upper-level ridge
over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to
upper-level level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. This should
be followed by a north-northeastward motion that is expected to
bring the center near or over the northern Gulf coast, most likely
in southwestern Louisiana, in about 30 h. After landfall, the
cyclone should move northeastward through the Lower Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys along the southern edge of the mid-latitude
westerlies until it dissipates. The track guidance remains very
tightly clustered in terms of direction, and the new forecast track
is near the various consensus models.

Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear
favorable for strengthening during the next 12 h or so, and based on
this additional intensification is expected tonight. A short period
of rapid intensification remains possible given current trends,
although the various rapid intensification indices are not
enthusiastic about the possibilities of this, After 12 h, the
global models again forecast strong southwesterly shear developing
over the hurricane before landfall, and based on this some weakening
is forecast. Rapid weakening is expected after landfall. The
system is expected to weaken to a depression no later than 60 h and
degenerate to a remnant low by 72 h, with dissipation following
shortly thereafter. The intensity forecast lies at or above the
upper edge of the intensity guidance.

Recent scatterometer data indicates that Delta is growing in size
as it approaches the Louisiana coast. The NHC wind radii forecast
again follows a combination of the data and the forecasts from
global and hurricane regional models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where
Delta makes landfall Friday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in effect
from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The highest
inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between Rockefeller
Wildlife Refuge and Morgan City, Louisiana. Residents in the warning
area should promptly follow advice given by local officials. The
storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast decrease in
intensity before landfall since Delta is expected to grow in size.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Friday afternoon and evening
somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island,
Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane force winds will also
spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of
Delta?--s center Friday evening and Friday night.

3. Heavy rainfall will lead to significant flash flooding and minor
to major river flooding in parts of Louisiana Friday and Saturday.
Additional flooding is expected across portions of the central Gulf
Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 24.8N 93.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 26.3N 93.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 28.6N 93.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 31.0N 92.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
48H 10/1800Z 32.9N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0600Z 34.3N 89.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1800Z 35.8N 87.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-08 20:57


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 082055
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...DELTA REGAINS MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.8N 93.4W
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast west
of San Luis Pass to Sargent.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to Sargent Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 93.4 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion with a
reduction in forward speed is expected this evening. A turn toward
the north is forecast to occur late tonight, followed by a
north-northeastward motion Friday and Friday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Delta will move over the western Gulf of
Mexico this evening, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on
Friday, and then move inland within the hurricane warning area
Friday afternoon or Friday night.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185
km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
possible tonight. Some weakening is possible as Delta approaches
the northern Gulf coast on Friday, with rapid weakening expected
after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Morgan City, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...5-8 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...4-7 ft
Morgan City, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

It is important to note that small changes in the track, structure,
or intensity of Delta could have large impacts on where the highest
storm surge occurs. Users are urged to stay tuned for possible
changes and updates.

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm
conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas on Friday, and are possible in the tropical storm watch area
Friday night.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5
to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches,
from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts
will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along
with minor to major river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor
river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, are expected in the Tennessee Valley and Mid
Atlantic this weekend.

TORNADOES: There is a risk of a few tornadoes beginning late
tonight and continuing through Friday over southern portions of
Louisiana and Mississippi.

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast during the next several hours.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-08 20:56


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 082054
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
2100 UTC THU OCT 08 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST WEST
OF SAN LUIS PASS TO SARGENT.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING
CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SARGENT TEXAS
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36
HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 93.4W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 130SE 80SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 93.4W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 93.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.3N 93.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 28.6N 93.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.0N 92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 25SE 20SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 140SE 100SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 32.9N 91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.3N 89.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 35.8N 87.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 93.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 09/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-10-08 17:44


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 081742
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 16A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
100 PM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...DELTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 93.1W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...21 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to San Luis Pass Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-
force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 93.1 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (21 km/h), and this motion with a
reduction in forward speed is expected this afternoon. A turn
toward the north is forecast to occur by late tonight, followed by a
north-northeastward motion by Friday afternoon or Friday night. On
the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the western
Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico
on Friday, and then move inland within the hurricane warning area
Friday afternoon or Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Delta is expected to become a
major hurricane again by tonight. Some weakening is possible as
Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday, with rapid
weakening expected after the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm
conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas on Friday, and are possible in the tropical storm watch area
Friday night.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5
to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches,
from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts
will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along
with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor
river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, are expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic
this weekend.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight through Friday
over southern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-08 14:56


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 081454
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

Satellite imagery shows that Delta is better organized this
morning, with the center well embedded in a cold central dense
overcast and a hint of a eye developing in the overcast. Reports
from Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that the central pressure has fallen to 968 mb inside a 35 n mi wide
eye, along with flight-level and SFMR winds that support an initial
intensity of 90 kt.

The initial motion remains northwestward or 305/12 kt. The track
forecast is reasonably straightforward. During the next 12-24 h,
Delta should turn to the north between a mid- to upper-level ridge
over the Florida Peninsula and eastern Gulf of Mexico and a mid- to
upper-level level trough over the U.S. Southern Plains. This
should be followed by a north-northeastward motion that is expected
to bring the center near or over the northern Gulf coast, most
likely in southwestern Louisiana, in about 36 h. After landfall,
the cyclone should move northeastward through the Lower Mississippi
and Tennessee Valleys along the southern edge of the mid-latitude
westerlies until it dissipates. The track guidance is very tightly
clustered in terms of direction, and the new forecast track has
only minor tweaks from the previous one.

Shear, sea surface temperature, and moisture conditions appear
favorable for strengthening during the next 12-24 h or so, and
based on this Delta is expected to regain major hurricane strength.
Rapid intensification cannot be ruled out, although the various
rapid intensification indices do not suggest a high chance, and
the first 24 h of the forecast is already above the intensity
guidance. The global models forecast strong southwesterly shear
developing over the hurricane during the last 12 h before landfall,
and based on this some weakening is forecast. Rapid weakening is
expected after landfall, with Delta forecast to degenerate to a
remnant low by 72 h and dissipate shortly after that. It should be
noted that the NHC 1-2 day intensity forecasts are subject to errors
of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category.

Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the Louisiana
coast. The NHC wind radii forecast again follows a consensus of the
global and hurricane regional models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge is expected near and east of where
Delta makes landfall on Friday, and a Storm Surge Warning is in
effect from High Island, Texas, to Ocean Springs, Mississippi. The
highest inundation of 7 to 11 feet is expected somewhere between
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge and Port Fourchon, Louisiana. Residents
in the warning area should promptly follow advice given by local
officials. The storm surge risk remains high despite the forecast
decrease in intensity before landfall since Delta is expected to
grow in size.

2. Hurricane-force winds are expected Friday afternoon and evening
somewhere within the Hurricane Warning area between High Island,
Texas, and Morgan City, Louisiana. Hurricane-force winds will also
spread inland across portions of southern Louisiana near the path of
Delta?--s center Friday evening and Friday night.

3. Significant flash flooding and minor to moderate river flooding
are likely in parts of Louisiana Friday and Saturday, with
additional flooding in portions of the central Gulf Coast into the
Lower Mississippi Valley.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 24.0N 92.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 25.4N 93.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 27.5N 93.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 29.8N 93.1W 90 KT 105 MPH...ON THE COAST
48H 10/1200Z 32.4N 91.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 11/0000Z 34.0N 90.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/1200Z 35.6N 87.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-08 14:55


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 081453
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS REPORT DELTA HAS
STRENGTHENED...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.0N 92.7W
ABOUT 400 MI...645 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from
High Island to Sabine Pass.

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Texas coast from High
Island to Sabine Pass.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Ocean Springs Mississippi including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
and Lake Borgne

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* West of High Island to San Luis Pass Texas
* East of Morgan City Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 24.0 North, longitude 92.7 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion with a
reduction in forward speed is expected today. A turn toward the
north is forecast to occur by late tonight, followed by a north-
northeastward motion by Friday afternoon or Friday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the central Gulf
of Mexico today, over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday,
and then move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday
afternoon or Friday night.

Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105
mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is
forecast, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again
by tonight. Some weakening is possible as Delta approaches the
northern Gulf coast on Friday, with rapid weakening expected after
the center moves inland.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including
Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Holly Beach, LA to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Sabine Pass to Holly Beach, LA...3-5 ft
Calcasieu Lake...3-5 ft
High Island, TX to Sabine Pass...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm
conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas on Friday, and are possible in the tropical storm watch area
Friday night.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5
to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches,
from southwest into south-central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts
will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along
with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor
river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, are expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic
this weekend.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight through Friday
over southern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast later today. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-08 14:55


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 081453
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
1500 UTC THU OCT 08 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM
HIGH ISLAND TO SABINE PASS.

A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE TEXAS COAST FROM HIGH
ISLAND TO SABINE PASS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO OCEAN SPRINGS MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING
CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SAN LUIS PASS TEXAS
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER...
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE...
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 92.7W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 90SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 92.7W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 92.4W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.4N 93.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 27.5N 93.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.8N 93.1W...ON THE COAST
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.4N 91.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 80SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.0N 90.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 35.6N 87.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.0N 92.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-10-08 11:57


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 081155
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 15A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
700 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...NOAA AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INVESTIGATING DELTA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 92.3W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM S OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from east of Ocean
Springs, Mississippi, to the Mississippi/Alabama border.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, Mississippi including Calcasieu
Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake
Borgne

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island, TX to Sabine Pass

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
by NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 23.7 North, longitude 92.3 West. Delta is moving toward
the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a
reduction in forward speed is expected today. A turn to the north
is forecast to occur by late tonight, followed by a north-
northeastward motion by Friday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico today,
and move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon
or Friday night.

Reports from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast, and Delta is expected to become a
major hurricane again by tonight. Some weakening is forecast when
Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The minimum central pressure just reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 970 mb (28.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pecan Island, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay...
7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River?-?4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...2-4 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...
1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm
conditions expected within this area by early Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas on Friday.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 5
to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15 inches,
for southwest into south central Louisiana. These rainfall amounts
will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream flooding, along
with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor
river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, are expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic
this weekend.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight through Friday
over southern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast later today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-10-08 08:34


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 080832
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

Satellite images indicate that Delta remains a well organized
hurricane with a central dense overcast feature and curved bands
beyond that. There is still no indication of an eye, however, in
geostationary satellite images. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters
were in Delta a few hours ago and toward the end of that mission,
they reported maximum flight-level winds of 102 kt and SFMR winds of
77 kt. Based on a blend of this data, the initial intensity was
increased to 85 kt at 0600 UTC. Since the cyclone appears to be
generally steady in strength since that time, the wind speed is held
at that value. Both the NOAA and Air Force Hurricane Hunters will
be investigating Delta later today, and that data will help us
assess its strength and structure.

The track forecast reasoning is unchanged. Delta is currently
moving northwestward at 13 kt on the southwestern periphery of an
Atlantic subtropical ridge. The western portion of the ridge is
expected to weaken later today as a trough moves eastward across
the south-central United States. This change in the steering
pattern should cause Delta to turn northward by late tonight and
north-northeastward by Friday night. This motion should take the
core of the hurricane to the Louisiana coast in a little more than
36 hours (sometime Friday afternoon or evening). After landfall, a
turn to the northeast is forecast as a larger trough approaches
Delta from the west. The models are in very good agreement, and the
NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous one.

Delta is expected to continue gradually strengthening during the
next 24 hours while it remains over warm deep waters and in an
environment of low wind shear and a high amount of moisture. Based
on these favorable environmental conditions and the trend in the
models, Delta is forecast to regain major hurricane status by
tonight. Just prior to making landfall, the cyclone is forecast to
level off in strength or weaken slightly as it moves over the cooler
shelf waters and into somewhat less favorable atmospheric
conditions. Rapid weakening is forecast after Delta moves inland.
The intensity models are in fairly good agreement, and the NHC
intensity forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. It
should be noted that the NHC 1-2 day intensity forecasts are subject
to errors of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category.

The aircraft and fairly recent scatterometer data indicate that
Delta is gradually growing in size. This trend is expected to
continue as Delta approaches the Louisiana coast. The NHC wind
radii forecast follows a consensus of the global and hurricane
regional models.

Key Messages:

1. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern
Gulf Coast, where life-threatening storm surge and dangerous
hurricane-force winds are likely beginning Friday, particularly for
portions of the Louisiana coast. Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings
are in effect, and residents in these areas should follow advice
given by local officials and rush preparedness actions to
completion.

2. Significant flash, urban, small stream and minor to isolated
moderate river flooding is likely Friday and Saturday from portions
of the central Gulf Coast into portions of the Lower Mississippi
Valley. As Delta moves farther inland, heavy rainfall is expected in
the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 23.4N 91.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 24.6N 93.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 26.4N 93.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 28.8N 93.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 31.3N 92.4W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 10/1800Z 33.3N 90.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/0600Z 34.6N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-08 08:33


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 080831
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...DELTA MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 91.8W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, Mississippi including Calcasieu
Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake
Borgne

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island, TX to Sabine Pass
* East of Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 91.8 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion with a
a reduction in forward speed is expected today. A turn to the north
is forecast to occur by late tonight, followed by a north-
northeastward motion by Friday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the central Gulf of Mexico today, and
move inland within the hurricane warning area Friday afternoon or
Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Delta is expected to become
a major hurricane again by tonight. Some weakening is forecast
when Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pecan Island to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
MS/AL border to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3
ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday afternoon or evening, with tropical storm
conditions expected within this area earlier on Friday. Tropical
storm conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning
areas on Friday.

RAINFALL: Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to
produce 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 15
inches, for southwest into south central Louisiana. These rainfall
amounts will lead to significant flash, urban, small stream
flooding, along with minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

For extreme east Texas into northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas
and western Mississippi, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. These rainfall
amounts will lead to flash, urban, small stream and isolated minor
river flooding.

As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this
weekend.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible late tonight through Friday
over southern parts of Louisiana and Mississippi

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast later today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-08 08:33


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 080830
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
0900 UTC THU OCT 08 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING CALCASIEU
LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE
BORGNE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND...TX TO SABINE PASS
* EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS...TEXAS TO SABINE PASS
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 91.8W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 91.8W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 91.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.6N 93.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.4N 93.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 28.8N 93.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 140SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.3N 92.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 110SE 50SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.3N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 34.6N 89.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 91.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-10-08 05:46


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 080543
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 14A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
100 AM CDT Thu Oct 08 2020

...DELTA STRENGTHENS BACK TO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE EXPECTED
TO BEGIN ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 91.3W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, Mississippi including Calcasieu
Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake
Borgne

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island, TX to Sabine Pass
* East of Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 91.3 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northwestward
motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected during the next
several hours. A turn to the north is forecast to occur tonight
followed by a north-northeastward motion on Friday and Friday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the
central Gulf of Mexico today, and approach the northern Gulf coast
on Friday. Delta is forecast to move inland within the hurricane
warning area by late Friday or Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Delta is expected
to become a major hurricane again by tonight or early Friday. Some
weakening is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast by
late Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters is 973 mb (28.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pecan Island to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
MS/AL border to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3
ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday evening, with tropical storm conditions
expected within this area earlier on Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas on
Friday.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches
of rain over the far northwestern Yucatan Peninsula through early
Thursday. The additional rainfall may still result in areas of
significant flash flooding.

Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash,
urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this
weekend.

TORNADOES: The risk of a few tornadoes will increase late tonight
into Friday over portions of southern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, and southwest Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast later today. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-08 04:00


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 080358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.10.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 124.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2020 0 13.1N 124.2W 1006 25
1200UTC 08.10.2020 12 14.7N 124.5W 1008 22
0000UTC 09.10.2020 24 15.3N 125.2W 1007 24
1200UTC 09.10.2020 36 15.2N 126.8W 1006 27
0000UTC 10.10.2020 48 14.7N 128.0W 1006 28
1200UTC 10.10.2020 60 14.2N 129.9W 1005 29
0000UTC 11.10.2020 72 13.4N 132.2W 1004 36
1200UTC 11.10.2020 84 13.3N 134.8W 1004 34
0000UTC 12.10.2020 96 13.8N 137.4W 1004 33
1200UTC 12.10.2020 108 14.1N 140.0W 1005 32
0000UTC 13.10.2020 120 14.4N 142.5W 1004 32
1200UTC 13.10.2020 132 14.6N 144.4W 1002 37
0000UTC 14.10.2020 144 14.6N 146.5W 1002 35

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORBERT ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 106.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2020 0 13.3N 106.9W 1006 21
1200UTC 08.10.2020 12 13.4N 106.4W 1007 21
0000UTC 09.10.2020 24 13.6N 106.7W 1006 23
1200UTC 09.10.2020 36 14.1N 106.9W 1006 21
0000UTC 10.10.2020 48 14.8N 107.6W 1006 23
1200UTC 10.10.2020 60 16.1N 108.5W 1007 23
0000UTC 11.10.2020 72 17.2N 109.2W 1007 25
1200UTC 11.10.2020 84 18.2N 109.7W 1008 19
0000UTC 12.10.2020 96 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 22.4N 90.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2020 0 22.4N 90.1W 972 56
1200UTC 08.10.2020 12 23.8N 92.2W 967 59
0000UTC 09.10.2020 24 25.6N 93.5W 961 65
1200UTC 09.10.2020 36 27.8N 93.5W 953 75
0000UTC 10.10.2020 48 31.0N 92.1W 968 50
1200UTC 10.10.2020 60 33.6N 90.7W 989 26
0000UTC 11.10.2020 72 34.9N 88.1W 996 19
1200UTC 11.10.2020 84 36.1N 84.9W 1001 14
0000UTC 12.10.2020 96 38.9N 81.0W 1004 31
1200UTC 12.10.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080358

>

2020-10-08 03:09


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 080306 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 14...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Corrected to remove Mobile Bay from the Storm Surge Warning area

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 90.9W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Sabine Pass to Ocean
Springs, Mississippi, including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake
Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast from east of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the northern Gulf
of Mexico coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass, and east
of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from the
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Rio Lagartos to Dzilam, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, Mississippi including Calcasieu
Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake
Borgne

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island, TX to Sabine Pass
* East of Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 90.9 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A generally
northwestward motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday. A north-northwestward motion is expected by
late Thursday, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion
is forecast on Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the southern and central Gulf of
Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday. Delta is forecast to move
inland within the hurricane warning area by late Friday or Friday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast while the hurricane moves over the
southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and Delta is
expected to become a major hurricane again. Some weakening is
forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pecan Island to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
MS/AL border to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3
ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday evening, with tropical storm conditions
expected within this area earlier on Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas on
Friday.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches
of rain over the far northwestern Yucatan Peninsula through early
Thursday. The additional rainfall may still result in areas of
significant flash flooding.

Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash,
urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this
weekend.

TORNADOES: The risk of a few tornadoes will increase late Thursday
night into Friday over portions of southern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, and southwest Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast on Thursday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg

>

2020-10-08 02:51


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 080249
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Observations from an Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Delta is gradually strengthening while it
moves over the open waters of the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Based on a blend of adjusted flight-level and SFMR wind
measurements from the plane, the current intensity is set at 80 kt.
The cloud pattern of the hurricane continues to become better
organized on satellite images, with a growing Central Dense
Overcast, and convective banding features becoming better defined,
particularly over the northern semicircle of the circulation.
Additional intensification is likely while Delta moves through a
favorable environment during the next day or so, and the official
forecast is fairly close to the corrected consensus guidance, HCCA.
When the system moves into the northern Gulf, a decrease in oceanic
heat content, drier mid-tropospheric air, and increased vertical
shear should cause at least slow weakening. The NHC intensity
forecast is above the numerical guidance in 36-48 hours. It should
be noted that 1-2 day tropical cyclone intensity forecasts are
subject to errors of around 1 Saffir-Simpson category.

The global models show a further increase in the size of the
hurricane while it moves into the northern Gulf. The official wind
radii forecasts are based on a consensus of these model predictions.

The latest center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters show a
west-northwestward motion, at about 300/15 kt. Delta should turn
toward the north-northwest and north over the next 36 hours or so
while moving around the western periphery of a subtropical high
pressure system centered over Florida. When the hurricane moves
into the northern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, Delta should turn
toward the north-northeast on the southeastern side of a
mid-tropospheric shortwave over the southern United States. The
official track forecast is close to both the simple and corrected
dynamical model consensus predictions, TVCA and HCCA, respectively.
These objective aids are in close agreement with one another.

Based on the official forecast, it is time to issue storm surge and
hurricane warnings for a portion of the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast.


Key Messages:

1. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern
Gulf Coast, where life-threatening storm surge and dangerous
hurricane-force winds are likely beginning Friday, particularly for
portions of the Louisiana coast. Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings
are in effect, and residents in these areas should follow advice
given by local officials and rush preparedness actions to
completion.

2. Flash, urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river
flooding is likely Friday and Saturday from portions of the central
Gulf Coast into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley.
As Delta moves farther inland, additional heavy rainfall is expected
in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 22.5N 90.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 23.7N 92.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 25.4N 93.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 27.5N 93.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 30.0N 92.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 32.4N 91.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 11/0000Z 34.2N 89.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 12/0000Z 37.5N 85.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-08 02:50


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 080247
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 90.9W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Sabine Pass to Ocean
Springs, Mississippi, including Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake
Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne.

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for the northern Gulf of Mexico
coast from east of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Warning has also been issued for the northern Gulf
of Mexico coast from San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass, and east
of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued from the
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Alabama/Florida border, including
Mobile Bay.

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning from Rio Lagartos to Dzilam, Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sabine Pass to Ocean Springs, Mississippi including Calcasieu
Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, Lake Borgne,
and Mobile Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island, TX to Sabine Pass
* East of Ocean Springs, Mississippi to the Mississippi/Alabama
border

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* East of Sabine Pass to Morgan City, Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass, Texas to Sabine Pass
* East of Morgan City, Louisiana to the mouth of the Pearl River,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* East of the mouth of the Pearl River to Bay St. Louis Mississippi

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 90.9 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A generally
northwestward motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday. A north-northwestward motion is expected by
late Thursday, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion
is forecast on Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the southern and central Gulf of
Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast within
the hurricane warning area on Friday. Delta is forecast to move
inland within the hurricane warning area by late Friday or Friday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast while the hurricane moves over the
southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and Delta is
expected to become a major hurricane again. Some weakening is
forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pecan Island to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion Bay...7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to the Mouth of the Mississippi River...4-6 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River to Ocean Springs, MS...3-5 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to MS/AL border...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
MS/AL border to the AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...1-3 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3
ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area by Friday evening, with tropical storm conditions
expected within this area earlier on Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are expected within the tropical storm warning areas on
Friday.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce an additional 1 to 3 inches
of rain over the far northwestern Yucatan Peninsula through early
Thursday. The additional rainfall may still result in areas of
significant flash flooding.

Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash,
urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this
weekend.

TORNADOES: The risk of a few tornadoes will increase late Thursday
night into Friday over portions of southern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, and southwest Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast on Thursday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch/Berg

>

2020-10-08 02:47


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 080245
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
0300 UTC THU OCT 08 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SABINE PASS TO OCEAN
SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION
BAY...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND LAKE BORGNE.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO
COAST FROM EAST OF SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
OF MEXICO COAST FROM SAN LUIS PASS...TEXAS TO SABINE PASS...AND EAST
OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE
MAUREPAS.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA
BORDER...INCLUDING
MOBILE BAY.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM RIO LAGARTOS TO DZILAM...MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SABINE PASS TO OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI INCLUDING CALCASIEU
LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...LAKE
BORGNE...
AND MOBILE BAY

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND...TX TO SABINE PASS
* EAST OF OCEAN SPRINGS...MISSISSIPPI TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA
BORDER

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF SABINE PASS TO MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS...TEXAS TO SABINE PASS
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL
RIVER...INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS.
FOR A
DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS
LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS. PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER
INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 90.9W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 90.9W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 90.2W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.7N 92.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.4N 93.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 27.5N 93.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 92.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 32.4N 91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 34.2N 89.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 37.5N 85.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 90.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/BERG

>

2020-10-08 00:02


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 072359
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
700 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...DELTA STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 90.2W
ABOUT 550 MI...890 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning from
Rio Lagartos to Dzilam, Mexico to a Tropical Storm Warning, and
discontinued all warnings for the remainder of the Yucatan
Peninsula.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Alabama/Florida border including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Rio Lagartos to Dzilam Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to west of High Island Texas
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Bay St. Louis Mississippi,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.3 North,
longitude 90.2 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 17
mph (28 km/h). A northwestward motion with a reduction in forward
speed is expected through early Thursday. A north-northwestward
motion is expected by late Thursday, and a faster northward to
north-northeastward motion is forecast on Friday and Friday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the
southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach
the northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area on Friday.
Delta is forecast to move inland within the hurricane watch area by
late Friday or Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast while the
hurricane moves over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through
Thursday, and Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again.
Some weakening is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf
coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). During the past few hours, a Mexican weather
station on Isla Perez, off the north coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula, measured a sustained wind of 65 mph (105 km/h) and a
gust to 90 mph (145 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pecan Island, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion
Bay...7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3
ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas
along the Gulf coast by late Thursday night or early Friday with
hurricane conditions possible within the hurricane watch area by
Friday.

RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to
6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash,
urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this
weekend.

TORNADOES: The risk of a few tornadoes will increase late Thursday
night into Friday over portions of southern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, and southwest Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast on Thursday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-07 20:50


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 072048
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

The center of Delta has moved off the northern coast of the Yucatan
peninsula and is now located over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The
hurricane remains well organized in satellite imagery with a large
curved band wrapping around the center and a fairly symmetric CDO.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has provided a
few center fixes this afternoon, and found that Delta's passage
over land has resulted in weakening, and the initial wind speed is
set at 75 kt, which is based on a peak flight-level wind of 81 kt.
The aircraft also reported a minimum pressure of 977 mb on its
final center penetration, and data from the plane indicate that
there has been some increase in the radius of maximum winds.

Re-strengthening is anticipated over the next 24-36 hours while
Delta moves within a favorable upper-level environment and over the
relatively deep warm waters of the southern and central Gulf of
Mexico. Most of the intensity guidance brings Delta back up to
major hurricane status, and so does the official forecast. The
global models also significantly deepen Delta during the next 36
hours, lending confidence to re-intensification. After 36 hours,
increasing shear and cooler waters over the northern Gulf of Mexico
are likely to cause some decrease in intensity before Delta makes
landfall, however the hurricane's wind field is forecast to expand,
which will increase the storm surge and wind threats. Regardless of
Delta's landfall intensity, life-threatening storm surge and strong
winds are likely over a large portion of the northwestern and
northern Gulf coast.

Delta has been moving on a consistent northwestward heading of
305 degrees at about 15 kt. Delta should continue on this general
heading with some reduction in forward speed tonight and early
Thursday as it approaches the western extent of the subtropical
ridge. A mid- to upper-level trough over Texas is forecast to
slide eastward over the next couple of days, which is expected to
cause Delta to turn north-northwestward on Thursday, and northward
toward the northern Gulf coast by Friday. A faster northward to
north-northeastward motion in 48-60 hours will bring the center
onshore along the northern Gulf coast late Friday. The cross track
spread in the dynamical models has decreased this cycle, with the
model predictions converging on the previous NHC track forecast.
Therefore, little change has been made to the previous official
forecast, and it lies near the center of the now tightly clustered
guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Winds and water levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula will gradually subside this evening. Heavy rainfall,
which could lead to significant flash flooding, will affect the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through early Thursday.

2. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern
Gulf Coast, where life-threatening storm surge and dangerous
hurricane-force winds are likely beginning Friday, particularly for
portions of the Louisiana coast. Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches
are in effect, and residents in these areas should follow advice
given by local officials.

3. Flash, urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river
flooding is likely Friday and Saturday from portions of the central
Gulf Coast into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley.
As Delta moves farther inland, additional heavy rainfall is expected
in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 22.1N 89.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 23.2N 91.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 24.8N 92.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 26.7N 93.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 29.1N 92.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 31.6N 91.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1800Z 33.7N 90.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1800Z 37.0N 85.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-07 20:50


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 072048
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...DELTA EXPECTED TO RE-STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND THURSDAY WHILE
MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DAMAGING WINDS INCREASINGLY
LIKELY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BEGINNING
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 89.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Alabama/Florida border including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to west of High Island Texas
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Bay St. Louis Mississippi,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 89.5 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a reduction in forward speed is expected through early
Thursday. A north-northwestward motion is expected by late
Thursday, and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is
forecast on Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the southern and central Gulf of
Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast within
the hurricane watch area on Friday. Delta is forecast to move
inland within the hurricane watch area by late Friday or Friday
night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with
higher gusts. Re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves
over the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and
Delta is expected to become a major hurricane again. Some weakening
is is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: Water levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan
peninsula will gradually subside this evening.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pecan Island, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion
Bay...7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3
ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue within
portions of the warning area in the Yucatan peninsula during the
next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
watch areas along the Gulf coast by late Thursday night or early
Friday with hurricane conditions possible within the hurricane
watch area by Friday.

RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to
6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash,
urban, small stream and minor to isolated moderate river flooding.
As Delta moves farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally
higher amounts, is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this
weekend.

TORNADOES: The risk of a few tornadoes will increase late Thursday
night into Friday over portions of southern Louisiana, southern
Mississippi, and southwest Alabama.

SURF: Swells from Delta will begin to affect portions of the
northern and western Gulf coast on Thursday. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-07 20:50


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 072047
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
2100 UTC WED OCT 07 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INCLUDING
CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TO WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI...
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 89.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 80SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 89.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 88.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.2N 91.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.8N 92.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.7N 93.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.1N 92.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 31.6N 91.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 33.7N 90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 37.0N 85.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 89.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 08/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-10-07 17:53


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 071751
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
100 PM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING DELTA OVER THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 88.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM W OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 65 MI...110 KM ENE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning along the east coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Punta
Herrero to Tulum.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island, Texas, to the Alabama/Florida border including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to west of High Island Texas
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Bay St. Louis Mississippi,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 88.8 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next 24
hours. A north-northwestward motion is expected by late Thursday,
and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on
Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta
will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over
the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and
approach the northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over
the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and Delta
is expected to become a major hurricane again. Some weakening is is
forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 6 to 9 ft above normal
tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from
Cabo Catoche to Progreso. Near the coast, the surge will be
accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pecan Island, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion
Bay...7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3
ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue within
the warning area in the Yucatan peninsula during the next few
hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas along the Gulf coast by late Thursday night or early Friday
with hurricane conditions possible within the hurricane watch area
by Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to
6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. As Delta moves
farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts,
is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean Sea today. Swells will begin to affect
portions of the northern and western Gulf coast on Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-07 14:57


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 071455
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Satellite and surface observations show that Delta made landfall
along the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula around 1030
UTC near Puerto Morelos. A WeatherFlow observing site at Puerto
Morelos reported near calm winds and a minimum pressure of around
972 mb when the center passed that location. Another WeatherFlow
site near Cancun reported peak sustained winds of 73 kt with a gust
to 92 kt. Hurricane-force winds gusts were also reported at an
observing site on Cozumel. Since landfall, Delta has moved across
the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and is now about
the emerge off the northern coast of the peninsula into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. Assuming some weakening has occurred, the
initial intensity has been set at 90 kt, but this could be a little
generous. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is
scheduled to investigate Delta early this afternoon. A NOAA P-3
aircraft has been preforming a Tail Doppler Radar mission this
morning.

Once Delta moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico, warm waters and
expected low vertical wind shear conditions are expected to allow
for re-strengthening during the next 24 to 36 hours. After 48
hours, increasing southwesterly shear and cooler waters over the
northern Gulf are likely to induce some weakening. The intensity
guidance has trended downward this cycle, and the NHC forecast has
been adjusted accordingly. Delta, however is still expected to
regain major hurricane status and the wind field is likely to grow
in size during its approach to the northern Gulf coast, which will
increase the storm surge and wind threats. Regardless of Delta's
landfall intensity, life-threatening storm surge and strong winds
are likely over a large portion of the northwestern and northern
Gulf coast, which has necessitated the issuance of Storm Surge,
Hurricane, and Tropical Storm watches for portions of that area.

Delta is moving northwestward or 305/15 kt. The hurricane should
continue moving northwestward around the southwestern portion of a
subtropical ridge that extends over Florida and the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico through early Thursday. After that time, a
developing mid-level trough over the south-central United States
should cause Delta to slow down and turn north-northwestward on
Thursday. Delta is forecast to begin accelerating northward or
north-northeastward toward the northern Gulf coast ahead of the
trough Thursday night and Friday. There has been little change to
the early portion of the track forecast, but there has been a little
westward shift in the guidance envelope after 24 hours, and the NHC
forecast has been moved in that direction. The new forecast track
lies near or just left of the TVCA multi-model consensus and a
little right of the HFIP corrected consensus aid, again close to the
GFS, GFS ensemble mean, and UKMet models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds will continue
within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico into
early afternoon. Heavy rainfall, which could lead to significant
flash flooding, will affect the northern Yucatan Peninsula through
early Thursday.

2. Delta is expected to grow in size as it approaches the northern
Gulf Coast, where there is an increasing likelihood of life-
threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds
beginning Friday, particularly for portions of the Louisiana coast.
Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches are in effect, and residents in
these areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Flash, urban, small stream, and minor river flooding is likely
Friday through Saturday from portions of the central Gulf Coast
northward into portions of the Lower to Middle Mississippi Valley.
As Delta moves farther inland, additional heavy rainfall is
expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 21.4N 88.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND
12H 08/0000Z 22.8N 90.2W 95 KT 110 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 08/1200Z 24.3N 92.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 26.0N 93.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 28.1N 93.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 30.8N 92.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
72H 10/1200Z 33.2N 90.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/1200Z 36.5N 86.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-07 14:51


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 071449
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...CENTER OF DELTA ABOUT TO EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 88.0W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WSW OF CABO CATOCHE MEXICO
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM E OF PROGRESO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf coast
from High Island, Texas, to the Alabama/Florida border including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the northern Gulf coast from
High Island, Texas, eastward to Grand Isle, Louisiana.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued along the Texas coast from
west of High Island to San Luis Pass. A Tropical Storm Watch has
also been issued along the northern Gulf coast from east of Grand
Isle, Louisiana, to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, including the
city of New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas.

The government of Cuba has discontinued all warnings for Cuba.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* High Island, Texas, to the Alabama/Florida border including
Calcasieu Lake, Vermilion Bay, Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas,
Lake Borgne and Mobile Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to Grand Isle Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* San Luis Pass to west of High Island Texas
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Bay St. Louis Mississippi,
including New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 88.0 West. Delta is moving
toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A northwestward motion
with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next 24
hours. A north-northwestward motion is expected by late Thursday,
and a faster northward to north-northeastward motion is forecast on
Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta
will move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over
the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and
approach the northern Gulf coast within the hurricane watch area on
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves over
the southern and central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and Delta
is expected to become a major hurricane again. Some weakening is
is forecast as Delta approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 6 to 9 ft above normal
tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from
Cabo Catoche to Progreso, and 5 to 7 ft above normal tide levels
along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Pecan Island, LA to Port Fourchon, LA including Vermilion
Bay...7-11 ft
Cameron, LA to Pecan Island, LA...4-7 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Lake
Borgne...4-6 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...3-5 ft
Ocean Springs, MS to AL/FL border including Mobile Bay...2-4 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA including Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Sabine Lake...1-3 ft
Port O'Connor, TX to High Island, TX including Galveston Bay...1-3
ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions will continue within
the warning area in the Yucatan peninsula during the next few
hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
areas along the Gulf coast by late Thursday night or early Friday
with hurricane conditions possible within the hurricane watch area
by Friday morning.

RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to
6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower to Middle
Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash,
urban, small stream, and minor river flooding. As Delta moves
farther inland, 1 to 3 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts,
is expected in the Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic this weekend.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean Sea today. Swell will begin to affect
portions of the northern and western Gulf coast on Thursday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-07 14:51


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 071449
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
1500 UTC WED OCT 07 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
FROM HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INCLUDING
CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE AND MOBILE BAY.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM
HIGH ISLAND TEXAS EASTWARD TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE TEXAS COAST FROM
WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TO SAN LUIS PASS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM EAST OF GRAND
ISLE, LOUISIANA TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI...INCLUDING THE
CITY OF NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR CUBA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER INCLUDING
CALCASIEU LAKE...VERMILION BAY...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE
MAUREPAS...LAKE BORGNE AND MOBILE BAY

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HIGH ISLAND TEXAS TO GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO
* DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAN LUIS PASS TO WEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS
* EAST OF GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO BAY ST. LOUIS MISSISSIPPI...
INCLUDING NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION, FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE, IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK, PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC, AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS, CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 88.0W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 88.0W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 87.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.8N 90.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.3N 92.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 26.0N 93.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 28.1N 93.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 30.8N 92.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 140SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.2N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 36.5N 86.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 39.5N 81.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 88.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-10-07 11:52


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 071149
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 11A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
700 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...DELTA BRINGING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS
TO NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 87.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor
the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will
likely be issued for a portion of this area later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
by satellite images and surface observation inland over northeastern
Mexico near latitude 21.1 North, longitude 87.4 West. Delta is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the
next day or so. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward
motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is
likely Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Delta is forecast to move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over the southern or
central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach the northern
Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although some additional weakening is likely when Delta
moves over the Yucatan peninsula this morning, re-strengthening is
forecast when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico
Wednesday night and Thursday, and Delta could become a category 4
hurricane again by late Thursday. Weakening is expected as Delta
approaches the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km). A WeatherFlow observing site at Puerto Morelos,
Mexico, has recently reported sustained winds of 54 mph (87 km/h)
and a gust to 75 mph (122 km/h) after the passage of the center
over that location. A wind gust to 64 mph (104 km/h) was recently
reported on Cozumel, Mexico.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 6 to 9 ft above normal
tide levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from
Cabo Catoche to Progreso, and 5 to 7 ft above normal tide levels
along the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, dangerous hurricane conditions are
expected in portions of the warning area during the next few hours,
with tropical storm conditions already occuring. Tropical storm
conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area to
continue for the next several hours. In Cuba, tropical storm
conditions could continue over far western portions of the island
during the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to
6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding. In addition, 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, are expected across portions
of western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding
and mudslides.

Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash,
urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding.
Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the Tennessee Valley, and
interior southeastern United States this weekend into early next
week.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-07 10:56


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 071054 CCA
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
545 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Corrected header time and time in the summary block

...DELTA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR PUERTO MORELOS...

Satellite imagery, radar data from Cuba, and surface observations
in Mexico indicate that the center of Delta has made landfall along
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near Puerto Morelos
around 5:30 AM CDT (1030 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 110
mph (175 km/h), a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.

A WeatherFlow observing site near Puerto Morales recently reported
near calm winds and a minimum pressure of 972 MB (28.71 inches) in
the center.

A WeatherFlow observing site near Cancun has reported peak
sustained winds of 84 mph (135 km/h) with a gust to 106 mph (170
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 545 AM CDT...1045 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 86.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-07 10:51


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 071049
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
645 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...DELTA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR PUERTO MORELOS...

Satellite imagery, radar data from Cuba, and surface observations
in Mexico indicate that the center of Delta has made landfall along
the northeastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near Puerto Morelos
around 5:30 AM CDT (1030 UTC) with estimated maximum winds of 110
mph (175 km/h), a category two hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.

A WeatherFlow observing site near Puerto Morales recently reported
near calm winds and a minimum pressure of 972 MB (28.71 inches) in
the center.

A WeatherFlow observing site near Cancun has reported peak
sustained winds of 84 mph (135 km/h) with a gust to 106 mph (170
km/h).

SUMMARY OF 645 AM EDT...1045 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 86.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM S OF CANCUN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-07 09:02


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 070859
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

Satellite images show very deep convection associated with Delta,
with extremely cold cloud-top temperatures to -97C noted southwest
of the center overnight. However, this structure has not resulted
in a stronger cyclone, and the full NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
mission actually indicated that Delta has significantly weakened
since earlier today. The maximum flight-level winds were 98 kt,
with SFMR values near 90 kt. Early in the mission, the flight
director indicated that the eyewall had dissipated, but on the last
fix, she noted that the eyewall had re-formed. Recent Cuban radar
data also indicate that at least a partial eyewall is present, so
the initial wind speed is generously kept at 100 kt.

Delta should begin to re-intensify late today as it moves into an
area of fairly warm and deep waters, with fairly light shear. The
regional hurricane models all show Delta attaining category 4 status
in 36-48 hours, and so does the NHC forecast. As Delta approaches
the Louisiana coast, lower oceanic heat content and an increase in
shear is likely to cause some weakening before landfall. The NHC
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one, and leans on
the stronger regional hurricane models. I should also note that all
of the guidance show Delta becoming considerably larger than it is
now by the time it reaches the northern Gulf coast, so even if
weakening occurs there, the hurricane will likely bring a sizable
area of hazardous conditions to the coast.

Fixes from the aircraft and Cuban radar data indicate the storm is
moving faster to the northwest or 305/15 kt. Delta should make
landfall during the next few hours between Cozumel and Cancun, and
move quickly across northeastern Yucatan before emerging in the
southern Gulf of Mexico early this afternoon. The hurricane is
then expected to move to the northwest or west-northwest around the
southwestern and western portion of the subtropical ridge for about
the next 36 hours. Thereafter, Delta will likely turn northward by
early Friday between the ridge and a mid-level trough over Texas.
While there is broad agreement on the synoptic pattern, subtle
differences in the subtropical ridge and the depth of the cyclone
are causing some challenges. The ECMWF and its ensembles, for
instance, are showing a stronger ridge and a weaker storm, which
results in a slower track toward southwestern Louisiana. The GFS
and UKMET, on the other hand, are showing a deeper cyclone, which
would feel stronger upper-level winds, and move Delta faster to the
coast. Given the expectation of a powerful cyclone at landfall, the
NHC forecast is shaded toward the latter two models, which results
in a slightly faster and westward-shifted forecast from before, not
too different from the model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during
the next few hours. Now is the time to be in your storm shelter.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of western Cuba and the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through early Thursday. This rainfall
could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides. Flash,
urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding is
likely Friday through Saturday across portions of the central Gulf
Coast north into portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. The heavy
rainfall will spread northeastward into the Tennessee Valley and
interior southeastern United States this weekend into early next
week.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of
Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and
follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane
watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf
Coast later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 20.6N 86.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.9N 88.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 23.3N 90.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 24.9N 92.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 26.7N 92.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 29.2N 92.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 32.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 35.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0600Z 38.5N 82.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-07 08:58


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 070856
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
400 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...WEATHER QUICKLY DETERIORATING OVER THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN COAST
WITH LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS ARRIVING SOON...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 86.4W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning
for the Isle of Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor
the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will
likely be issued for a portion of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
by satellite images and Cuban radar data near latitude 20.6 North,
longitude 86.4 West. Delta is moving toward the northwest near 17
mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
expected over the next day or so. A slower northwestward to
north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a
northward motion is likely Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan Peninsula during the next few hours. Delta
is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon,
be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday,
and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected before
the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula during the
next few hours. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves
over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the
hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and
Thursday, and Delta could become a category 4 hurricane again by
late Thursday. Weakening is expected as Delta approaches the
northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles
(220 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 8 to 12 ft above normal tide
levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo
Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 8 ft above normal tide levels along
the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, extremely dangerous hurricane
conditions are expected in portions of the warning area during the
next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already occuring.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area to continue for the next several hours. In Cuba,
tropical storm conditions are expected during the next few hours.

RAINFALL: Through early Thursday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to
6 inches of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across
portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding. In addition, 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, are expected across portions
of western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash flooding
and mudslides.

Friday through Saturday, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches
of rain, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across portions
of the central Gulf Coast north into portions of the Lower
Mississippi Valley. These rainfall amounts will lead to flash,
urban, and small stream flooding, along with minor river flooding.
Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the Tennessee Valley, and
interior southeastern United States this weekend into early next
week.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-07 08:58


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 070856
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
0900 UTC WED OCT 07 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO
* DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DELTA. HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 86.4W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 120SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 86.4W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 85.7W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.9N 88.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.3N 90.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.9N 92.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 26.7N 92.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 29.2N 92.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.0N 91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 35.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 38.5N 82.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 86.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-10-07 05:54


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 070552
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 10A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
100 AM CDT Wed Oct 07 2020

...HURRICANE DELTA AIMING FOR THE NORTHEAST YUCATAN COAST WITH A
LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND STRONG WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 85.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor
the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will
likely be issued for a portion of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 20.0 North,
longitude 85.7 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near
16 mph (26 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
expected over the next day or so. A slower northwestward to
north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a
northward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. Delta is forecast to
move over the southern Gulf of Mexico this afternoon, be over the
southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach
the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is
expected before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan
peninsula. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over
the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the
hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km). NOAA buoy 42056 recently measured a sustained wind
of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a gust to 94 mph (151 km/h), and a minimum
central pressure of 976 mb (28.82 inches).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft data is 972 mb (28.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 8 to 12 ft above normal tide
levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo
Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 8 ft above normal tide levels along
the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, extremely dangerous hurricane
conditions are expected in portions of the warning area during the
next several hours, with tropical storm conditions beginning in the
next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the
tropical storm warning area overnight. In Cuba, tropical storm
conditions are expected overnight in the warning area.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of
flash flooding and mudslides.

Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain,
with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches, over portions of the
central Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash,
urban and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually
spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United
States as well.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affect land areas around the
northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-07 02:50


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 070247
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and conventional
and microwave satellite imagery indicate that Delta has not
intensified since earlier today. The central pressure has risen
somewhat and the current intensity estimate, 115 kt, is probably
generous based on flight-level and SFMR-observed surface winds from
the NOAA plane. Although the hurricane continues to have very deep
convection near and over the center, the cloud pattern lacks
well-defined banding features, and an eye is not evident on either
geostationary or polar-orbiting satellite images. Surveillance
data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft suggest that Delta's circulation
does not extend as markedly into the upper troposphere as one would
expect for a major hurricane. Given the current state of the
system, not much strengthening seems likely before the center
reaches northeastern Yucatan tomorrow morning. Some weakening is
likely due to the interaction with land during the next 12-18
hours. Re-intensification over the southern Gulf of Mexico is
still expected, but when Delta reaches the northern Gulf, lower
oceanic heat content is likely to cause at least slight weakening.
The official intensity forecast is somewhat above most of the model
guidance, but not much different from the regional hurricane
models, HWRF and HMON, over the northern Gulf.

Fixes from the aircraft indicate a continued west-northwestward
motion at just a slightly slower forward speed, 300/14 kt. The
track forecast reasoning is basically unchanged from earlier
today. Delta should move along and around the southwestern and
western periphery of a mid-tropospheric anticyclone centered just
east of Florida for the next couple of days. Around 72 hours, the
flow ahead of a shortwave trough over the south-central United
States should cause the tropical cyclone to turn north-northeastward
and move across the central Gulf coast late Friday or early
Saturday. The official track forecast remains close to the
dynamical model consensus, TVCA.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and potentially catastrophic wind
damage are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight. All preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands,
western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek.
This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and
mudslides. The potential for heavy rain, flash and possible minor
river flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf
Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta
moves inland later this week.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of
Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and
follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane
watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf
Coast on Wednesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 19.5N 85.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 20.9N 87.1W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
24H 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.8W 105 KT 120 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 08/1200Z 23.6N 91.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 25.0N 92.7W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 26.8N 92.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 29.0N 92.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 33.0N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
120H 12/0000Z 36.0N 86.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-07 02:50


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 070247
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE DELTA CONTINUES HEADING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 85.1W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor
the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will
likely be issued for a portion of this area on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 85.1 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the
next day or so. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward
motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is
expected Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the
center of Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over
the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, be over the
southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and approach
the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is expected
before the center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula early
Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over
the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the
hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night
and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km). NOAA buoy 42056 recently measured a sustained wind of
65 mph (104 km/h) and a gust to 76 mph (122 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide
levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo
Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along
the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, potentially catastrophic
hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area
early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions beginning
overnight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical
storm warning area later tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical
storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of
flash flooding and mudslides.

Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain,
with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches, over portions of the
central Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash,
urban and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually
spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United
States as well.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-07 02:48


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 070246
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
0300 UTC WED OCT 07 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* ISLE OF YOUTH
* PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO
* DZILAM TO PROGRESO MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DELTA. HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 85.1W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 85.1W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 84.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 20.9N 87.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.6N 91.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.0N 92.7W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.8N 92.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 29.0N 92.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 33.0N 89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 36.0N 86.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 85.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-10-07 00:35


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 070032 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 9A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Corrected distance from Cozumel

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA HEADING
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 84.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor
the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will
likely be issued for a portion of this area on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.2 North,
longitude 84.5 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near
17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
expected over the next couple of days. A slower northwestward to
north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a
northward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday.
Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday
afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through
Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible before the
center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday.
Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan
peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves
over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide
levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo
Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along
the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, potentially catastrophic
hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area
late tonight and early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning later this evening. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday.
In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the
warning area.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of
flash flooding and mudslides.

Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain,
with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches, over portions of the
central Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash,
urban and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually
spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United
States as well.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-07 00:05


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 070002 CCA
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 9A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Corrected distance from Cozumel

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA HEADING
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 84.5W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor
the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will
likely be issued for a portion of this area on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.2 North,
longitude 84.5 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near
17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
expected over the next couple of days. A slower northwestward to
north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a
northward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday.
Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday
afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through
Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible before the
center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday.
Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan
peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves
over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide
levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo
Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along
the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, potentially catastrophic
hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area
late tonight and early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning later this evening. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday.
In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the
warning area.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of
flash flooding and mudslides.

Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain,
with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches, over portions of the
central Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash,
urban and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually
spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United
States as well.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-06 23:56


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 062354
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 9A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
800 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA HEADING
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 84.5W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progreso Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor
the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will
likely be issued for a portion of this area on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 19.2 North,
longitude 84.5 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest near
17 mph (28 km/h). A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is
expected over the next couple of days. A slower northwestward to
north-northwestward motion is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a
northward motion is expected Thursday night and Friday. On the
forecast track, the center of Delta will move over the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday.
Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday
afternoon, be over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through
Thursday, and approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible before the
center reaches the coast of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday.
Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over the Yucatan
peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the hurricane moves
over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide
levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo
Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along
the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, potentially catastrophic
hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area
late tonight and early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning later this evening. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday.
In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the
warning area.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of
flash flooding and mudslides.

Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain,
with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches, over portions of the
central Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash,
urban and minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually
spread into the Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United
States as well.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-10-06 20:36


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 062034
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Shortly after the release of the 1500 UTC advisory package, the
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft measured a peak flight-level wind
of 132 kt, and during its final passage through the northeast
eyewall around 1700 UTC it reported a peak SFMR wind of 121 kt.
The aircraft continued to report an extremely small 4-to-5-nmi-wide
eye. The central pressure did level off somewhat on the final
couple of penetrations, with the latest reported central pressure
at 956 mb. The initial wind speed was raised to 120 kt on the
earlier intermediate advisory, and has been set at 125 kt for this
advisory. The next reconnaissance aircraft mission into the
hurricane is scheduled for this evening.

There has been no evidence of an outer eyewall from the aircraft
reports or earlier radar imagery from Grand Cayman. As a
result, some additional strengthening is likely to occur before
Delta reaches the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula late
tonight or early Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is once
again a little above the various intensity aids until landfall in
Mexico. When the small inner core of Delta moves over land,
weakening is expected, but warm waters and low vertical wind shear
over the southern Gulf of Mexico should support re-strengthening,
and a second peak in intensity is likely when Delta is over the
central Gulf of Mexico in 48-60 hours. After that time, increasing
southwesterly shear and the cooler shelf waters over the
northern Gulf are expected to cause some reduction in wind speed.
The global models, however, depict a significant increase in the
size of Delta's wind field while it is over the Gulf of Mexico,
which increases the spatial extent of the storm surge and wind
threats for the northern Gulf coast. So regardless of Delta's
final landfall intensity, the projected large size of the hurricane
is likely to result in a significant storm surge and wind event for
portions of the northern Gulf coast later this week.

Delta has been moving steadily west-northwestward today at 300/15
kt. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous
advisory. A mid-level ridge over Florida and the northeastern Gulf
of Mexico is expected to continue steering Delta west-northwestward
during the next 36-48 hours. After that time, a developing trough
over the south-central United States should cause Delta to turn
northward, and by Friday the hurricane is forecast to begin
accelerating northward or north-northeastward ahead of the trough.
This motion will bring Delta onshore along the northern Gulf coast
between 72 and 96 hours. The dynamical models continue to be
tightly clustered through 48-72 hours with some increase in spread
thereafter. The overall trend in the guidance has been slightly
westward, and the new forecast has been adjusted accordingly and
lies near the middle of the envelope. Supplemental upper-air balloon
launches at 0600 and 1800 UTC have begun at upper-air sites across
portions of the southeastern United States. In addition, a NOAA
G-IV synoptic surveillance mission is in progress and should provide
additional data for the 0000 UTC cycle of the dynamical models.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and potentially catastrophic wind
damage are expected within portions of the northern Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico beginning tonight. All preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands,
western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek.
This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and
mudslides. The potential for heavy rain, flash and possible minor
river flooding will increase across portions of the central Gulf
Coast, Tennessee Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta
moves inland later this week.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of
Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and
follow advice given by local officials. Storm surge and hurricane
watches will likely be issued for portions of the northern Gulf
Coast on Wednesday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 18.9N 84.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 20.2N 86.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 23.0N 91.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 24.4N 92.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 25.9N 93.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 28.0N 92.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 32.4N 90.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/1800Z 35.5N 87.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-06 20:36


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 062033
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA HEADING
TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.9N 84.1W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF TULUM MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch
for the province of La Habana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progresso Mexico

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor
the progress of Delta. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches will
likely be issued for a portion of this area on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 84.1 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next
couple of days. A slower northwestward to north-northwestward motion
is forecast to begin on Thursday, and a northward motion is expected
Thursday night and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of
Delta will move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan
peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to
move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be
over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday, and
approach the northern Gulf coast on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h)
with higher gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is possible before the center reaches the coast Yucatan peninsula
Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta moves over
the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when the
hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday night and
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge will raise water levels
in areas of onshore winds by as much as 9 to 13 ft above normal tide
levels along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Cabo
Catoche to Progresso, and 6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels along
the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Cabo
Catoche. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and destructive waves.

WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, potentially catastrophic
hurricane conditions are expected in portions of the warning area
late tonight and early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning later this evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected
in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba,
tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the warning area.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash
flooding and mudslides.

Later this week, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain,
with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches to portions of the central
Gulf Coast. These rainfall amounts may lead to flash, urban and
minor river flooding. Heavy rainfall will eventually spread into the
Tennessee Valley, and interior southeastern United States as well.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-06 20:34


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 062032
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
2100 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
FOR THE PROVINCE OF LA HABANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* ISLE OF YOUTH
* PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO
* DZILAM TO PROGRESSO MEXICO

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO COAST SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF DELTA. HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 84.1W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
EYE DIAMETER 5 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 84.1W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 83.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.2N 86.1W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.0N 91.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.4N 92.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.9N 93.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 28.0N 92.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 32.4N 90.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 35.5N 87.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 84.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 07/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-10-06 17:53


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 061750
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE DELTA TAKING AIM ON THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...EXPECTED TO BRING A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND EXTREME
WINDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands have discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for all of the Cayman Islands.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progresso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 83.5 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the next
couple of days. A slower northwestward to north-northwest motion is
forecast to begin by late Wednesday or Wednesday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to continue to pass
southwest of the Cayman Islands through early this afternoon, and
move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula late
tonight or early Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the
southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the
southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Delta is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is possible during the next 24 hours, and Delta is forecast to be an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it reaches the Yucatan
peninsula Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when Delta
moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast when
the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft data is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 7 to 11 ft above normal tide levels along the
coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Cabo Catoche to Progresso, and
6 to 9 ft above normal tide levels from Tulum to Cabo Catoche. Near
the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive
waves.

WIND: In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions are expected
in the warning area early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday.
In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the
warning area and possible in the watch area near the same time.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash
flooding and mudslides.

Later this week, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall and flash
and urban flooding to portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee
Valley, and southeastern United States.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-06 15:22


Original Message :

WTNT61 KNHC 061520
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1120 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...RECENTLY RECEIVED DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT DELTA HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4
HURRICANE...

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Delta is
continuing to rapidly strengthen. The maximum winds have
increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher gusts. This makes
Delta a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind
Scale.


SUMMARY OF 1120 AM EDT...1520 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.7W
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-06 14:56


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 061454
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Satellite imagery and recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft data
show that Delta is a very symmetric and compact hurricane. The
aircraft reported a tiny 5-nmi-wide eye, which has also been
seen in radar imagery from the Cayman Islands, and there is a hint
of a pinhole eye in infrared satellite data. The central pressure
has continued to fall, with the lastest center dropwindsonde data
supporting a pressure of 955 mb. The plane has reported a peak
flight-level winds of 109 kt, and believable SFMR winds of 102 kt.
Therefore, the initial intensity is set at 100 kt, making Delta the
third major hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season.

Delta has continued to rapidly strengthen over the past 24 hours,
with an estimated 55-kt increase in wind speed between 1200 UTC
Monday and 1200 UTC today. Environmental conditions of low
vertical wind shear, deep warm waters, and sufficient mid-level
moisture are expected to support additional rapid intensification
through today, and the only reason that the strengthening could
slow is if a difficult-to-predict eyewall replace cycle begins.
The SHIPS Rapid intensification index continues to indicate a high
likelihood of at least an additional 25-30 kt of intensity increase
before the system reaches the northeastern portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Given that, the NHC intensity forecast is above the
various intensity aids and call for Delta to be an extremely
dangerous category 4 hurricane when it nears the Yucatan. It could
be stronger than indicated below since landfall is predicted to
occur between the 12 and 24 h forecast points. Some reduction in
intensity is likely when Delta moves over land, but the
environmental conditions over the southern Gulf of Mexico are
expected to support re-strengthening, and the NHC intensity
forecast shows a second peak in 48-72 hours. As mentioned before,
increasing southwesterly shear and cooler shelf waters near the
northern Gulf coast are expected to cause some reduction in wind
speed, but Delta is still expected to be a dangerous hurricane when
it nears the northern Gulf coast.

Delta is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. A mid-level
ridge that extends westward across Florida and the northeastern
Gulf of Mexico should continue to steer Delta west-northwestward to
northwestward during the next couple of days. As the hurricane
nears the western portion of the ridge it should slow down. By
day three a developing trough over the south-central United States
is expected to cause Delta to turn northward toward the northern
Gulf coast. The track guidance is tightly clustered through 48
hours, but there is still a fair amount of spread thereafter
regarding the timing and details of the northward turn. The ECMWF
and its ensemble mean are well west of the bulk of the remainder of
the guidance. The NHC track lies near the TVCA multi-model consensus
which is close to a blend of the GFS, HWRF, UKMET ensemble mean.

Key Messages:

1. Extremely dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are
expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico beginning tonight, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands,
western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek.
This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and
mudslides. The potential for heavy rain and flash flooding will
increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee
Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later
this week.

3. There is an increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge
and dangerous hurricane-force winds, especially along the coasts of
Louisiana and Mississippi, beginning on Friday. Residents in these
areas should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and
monitor updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 18.2N 82.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 19.4N 84.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 21.0N 87.2W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 23.4N 91.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 09/0000Z 24.6N 92.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 26.3N 92.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 30.5N 91.2W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/1200Z 34.5N 87.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-06 14:56


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 061454
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...REPORTS FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE DELTA IS
NOW A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 82.6W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum Mexico
* Dzilam to Progresso Mexico

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 82.6 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected over the
next couple of days. A slower northwestward to north-northwest
motion is forecast to begin by late Wednesday or Wednesday night.
On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to continue
to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands through early this
afternoon, and move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan
peninsula late tonight or early Wednesday. Delta is forecast
to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be
over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.

Reports from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185
km/h) with higher gusts. Delta is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
forecast during the next 24 hours, and Delta is forecast to be an
extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane when it reaches the
Yucatan peninsula Wednesday. Although some weakening is likely when
Delta moves over the Yucatan peninsula, re-strengthening is forecast
when the hurricane moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft data is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along
coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area,
near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the
the Cayman Islands today. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane
conditions are expected in the warning area early Wednesday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning later today or tonight.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area tonight and Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm
conditions are expected tonight in the warning area and possible in
the watch area near the same time.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash
flooding and mudslides.

Later this week, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall and flash
and urban flooding to portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee
Valley, and southeastern United States.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-06 14:52


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 061450
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
1500 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* ISLE OF YOUTH
* PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM MEXICO
* DZILAM TO PROGRESSO MEXICO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 82.6W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 82.6W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 82.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.4N 84.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.0N 87.2W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 22.3N 89.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.4N 91.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.6N 92.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 26.3N 92.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 30.5N 91.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 34.5N 87.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 82.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-10-06 12:00


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 061158
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
800 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT REPORTS THAT DELTA
CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 82.0W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum
* Dzilam to Progresso

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 17.8 North,
longitude 82.0 West. Delta is moving toward the west-northwest
near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster northwestward motion is expected
to begin later today through Wednesday night. On the forecast
track, the center of Delta is expected to continue to pass southwest
of the Cayman Islands this morning, and move over the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan peninsula early Wednesday. Delta is forecast
to move over the southern Gulf of Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be
over the southern or central Gulf of Mexico through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane when
it moves over the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday and over the Gulf of
Mexico through Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90
miles (150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure from NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft data is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along
coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area,
near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
today. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions are expected
in the warning area early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
beginning later today or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday.
In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the
warning area and possible in the watch area near the same
time.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash
flooding and mudslides.

Later this week, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and
southeastern United States.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will be affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-06 08:59


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 060857
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

Delta has maintained a very deep central dense overcast during the
past several hours, with overshooting cloud-top temperatures to
-90C, and perhaps hints of an eye trying to emerge. On the last
pass through the center, the Air Force plane reported a 4-mb
pressure fall in one hour to 968 mb, with believable SFMR values of
80-85 kt. Thus, the initial wind speed is set to 85 kt.

The hurricane is in the midst of a very impressive rapid
intensification episode, having strengthened over 50 kt during the
past 24 hours. I honestly don't see much that will stop it until it
reaches Yucatan, due to low vertical wind shear, high deep-layer
moisture, and the very warm and deep waters of the northwestern
Caribbean. This is also supported by SHIPS rapid intensification
probabilities that are well above 50 percent for most categories.
Thus, the intensity forecast is raised to 115 kt near Yucatan
landfall, closest to the HWRF forecast model, which has been a
good performer this year, especially after ingesting NOAA radar
data. Some weakening is expected due to land interaction, but
conditions look ripe for re-intensification over the Gulf of Mexico.
Almost all the guidance is higher, now showing Delta reaching
category 4 status in the 2-to-3 day time frame, and the new NHC
intensity forecast reflects this likelihood. However, an increase
in southwesterly shear and cooler shelf waters near the northern
Gulf coast should promote weakening, and little change has been made
to the intensity forecast near landfall.

Delta is moving much faster this morning to the west-northwest, with
the latest estimates at about 13 kt. A strengthening mid-level
ridge across Florida should steer the hurricane to the
west-northwest or northwest during the next couple of days. Likely
because of the deterioration of Gamma, model guidance is showing
less poleward motion before Yucatan, and the official track is
shifted to the west for the first day or so. Over the Gulf of
Mexico, Delta should slow down and turn northward ahead of a trough
moving eastward across Texas in a few days. Model guidance has
again shifted westward, like the last cycle, and the official
forecast is trended in that direction. However, it remains slightly
east of the model consensus, due to a notable westward bias in some
of the guidance during this hurricane season.

Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the track or
intensity forecasts, as the average 4-day track error is around 150
miles and the average 4-day intensity error is close to 15 mph.

Key Messages:

1. Extremely dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are
expected within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of
Mexico beginning tonight, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of the Cayman Islands,
western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek.
This rainfall could lead to significant flash flooding and
mudslides. The potential for heavy rain and flash flooding will
increase across portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee
Valley, and southeastern United States as Delta moves inland later
this week.

3. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this
week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts, there is a significant risk of dangerous
storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from
Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night
or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of
Delta.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 17.5N 81.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 18.7N 83.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 20.4N 85.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 23.0N 90.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 08/1800Z 24.2N 91.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 29.8N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
120H 11/0600Z 34.0N 88.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-06 08:57


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 060854
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...DELTA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE...
...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE
NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA STARTING EARLY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 81.3W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM S OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...968 MB...28.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has extended the Hurricane Warning
westward along the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to Dzilam.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Dzilam Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum
* Dzilam to Progresso

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 81.3 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A faster
northwestward motion is expected to begin later today through
Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is
expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands this morning, and
move over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula early
Wednesday. Delta is forecast to move over the southern Gulf of
Mexico Wednesday afternoon, and be over the southern or central Gulf
of Mexico through Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155
km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours, and Delta is expected to be a major hurricane over
the Yucatan Peninsula Wednesday and over the Gulf of Mexico through
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 968 mb (28.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: An extremely dangerous storm surge will raise water
levels by as much as 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels along
coast of the Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area,
near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
later this morning. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions
are expected in the warning area early Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions expected later today. Tropical storm conditions
are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and
Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight
in the warning area and possible in the watch area near the same
time.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
isolated maximum totals of 10 inches, across portions of the
northern Yucatan Peninsula through midweek. This rainfall may result
in areas of significant flash flooding.

Over the next few days, Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches
of rain, with isolated higher amounts, across portions of the Cayman
Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall may result in areas of flash
flooding and mudslides.

Later this week, Delta is expected to bring heavy rainfall to
portions of the central Gulf Coast, Tennessee Valley, and
southeastern United States.

SURF: Swells generated by Delta will be affected land areas around
the northwestern Caribbean Sea for the next day or so. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-06 08:55


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 060853
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
0900 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
WESTWARD ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO DZILAM.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO DZILAM MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* ISLE OF YOUTH
* PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM
* DZILAM TO PROGRESSO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 81.3W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 45SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 81.3W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 80.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 18.7N 83.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 20.4N 85.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.0N 90.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.2N 91.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 25.8N 92.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 29.8N 91.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 34.0N 88.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 81.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-10-06 05:58


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 060556
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 06 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT DELTA
IS STILL INTENSIFYING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 80.6W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.76 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum
* Rio Lagartos to Progresso

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 80.6 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
northwestward motion is expected to start later today through
Wednesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Delta is
expected to pass southwest of the Cayman Islands this morning, and
approach the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the
Yucatan Channel tonight. Delta is forecast to move over the southern
Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday, and be over the south-central Gulf
of Mexico late Wednesday and Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is forecast
during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be a major
hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70
miles (110 km).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 974 mb (28.76 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the
Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to
right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
later this morning. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions
are expected in the warning area tonight, with tropical storm
conditions expected later today. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Wednesday.
In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected tonight in the
warning area and possible in the watch area near the same time.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
maximum rainfall as high as 10 inches possible, across portions of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula through mid week. This rainfall may
result in areas of significant flash flooding.

Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated
higher amounts, across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of
flash flooding and mudslides.

Later this week and into the weekend, Delta is expected to bring
heavy rainfall across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the
southeastern United States.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-10-06 04:04


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 060401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.10.2020

TROPICAL STORM MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 132.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2020 0 21.3N 132.9W 997 39
1200UTC 06.10.2020 12 22.0N 134.8W 1001 40
0000UTC 07.10.2020 24 22.3N 136.2W 1004 32
1200UTC 07.10.2020 36 22.8N 137.3W 1006 33
0000UTC 08.10.2020 48 23.1N 138.7W 1005 33
1200UTC 08.10.2020 60 23.2N 140.2W 1007 30
0000UTC 09.10.2020 72 23.0N 141.4W 1008 26
1200UTC 09.10.2020 84 23.3N 142.8W 1010 24
0000UTC 10.10.2020 96 23.6N 144.6W 1011 23
1200UTC 10.10.2020 108 24.0N 146.8W 1014 24
0000UTC 11.10.2020 120 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 106.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2020 0 13.4N 106.0W 1003 33
1200UTC 06.10.2020 12 13.9N 106.7W 1003 31
0000UTC 07.10.2020 24 14.1N 106.6W 1001 35
1200UTC 07.10.2020 36 14.2N 106.2W 1003 32
0000UTC 08.10.2020 48 14.3N 105.5W 1003 26
1200UTC 08.10.2020 60 14.5N 105.2W 1005 22
0000UTC 09.10.2020 72 14.8N 105.4W 1004 21
1200UTC 09.10.2020 84 15.5N 106.4W 1005 22
0000UTC 10.10.2020 96 16.0N 107.3W 1005 22
1200UTC 10.10.2020 108 16.9N 108.0W 1007 20
0000UTC 11.10.2020 120 17.6N 108.5W 1008 20
1200UTC 11.10.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 88.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL252020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2020 0 21.9N 88.2W 1004 27
1200UTC 06.10.2020 12 21.7N 89.1W 1004 28
0000UTC 07.10.2020 24 21.1N 90.7W 1003 31
1200UTC 07.10.2020 36 21.5N 87.8W 996 53
0000UTC 08.10.2020 48 23.0N 90.2W 974 56
1200UTC 08.10.2020 60 23.6N 91.9W 972 57
0000UTC 09.10.2020 72 24.8N 92.8W 964 65
1200UTC 09.10.2020 84 26.1N 93.0W 951 75
0000UTC 10.10.2020 96 28.3N 92.2W 949 77
1200UTC 10.10.2020 108 30.3N 91.7W 976 44
0000UTC 11.10.2020 120 32.2N 90.5W 990 28
1200UTC 11.10.2020 132 34.1N 88.5W 996 26
0000UTC 12.10.2020 144 37.5N 86.0W 996 19

HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 79.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.10.2020 0 16.9N 79.7W 996 41
1200UTC 06.10.2020 12 18.3N 82.0W 989 47
0000UTC 07.10.2020 24 19.7N 84.7W 982 49
1200UTC 07.10.2020 36 21.4N 87.1W 977 53
0000UTC 08.10.2020 48 23.0N 90.2W 974 56
1200UTC 08.10.2020 60 23.6N 91.9W 972 57
0000UTC 09.10.2020 72 24.8N 92.8W 964 65
1200UTC 09.10.2020 84 26.1N 93.0W 951 75
0000UTC 10.10.2020 96 28.3N 92.2W 949 77
1200UTC 10.10.2020 108 30.3N 91.7W 976 44
0000UTC 11.10.2020 120 32.2N 90.5W 990 28
1200UTC 11.10.2020 132 34.1N 88.5W 996 26
0000UTC 12.10.2020 144 37.5N 86.0W 996 19

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.4N 124.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2020 48 13.4N 124.2W 1007 27
1200UTC 08.10.2020 60 14.4N 123.7W 1008 23
0000UTC 09.10.2020 72 14.5N 124.2W 1007 26
1200UTC 09.10.2020 84 14.7N 124.9W 1006 29
0000UTC 10.10.2020 96 14.2N 126.1W 1005 29
1200UTC 10.10.2020 108 13.6N 128.2W 1005 31
0000UTC 11.10.2020 120 13.2N 130.4W 1005 31
1200UTC 11.10.2020 132 13.2N 132.4W 1007 30
0000UTC 12.10.2020 144 13.3N 134.7W 1007 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060401

>

2020-10-06 04:03


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 060401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.10.2020

TROPICAL STORM MARIE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.3N 132.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP182020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2020 21.3N 132.9W MODERATE
12UTC 06.10.2020 22.0N 134.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2020 22.3N 136.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2020 22.8N 137.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2020 23.1N 138.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2020 23.2N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2020 23.0N 141.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2020 23.3N 142.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2020 23.6N 144.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2020 24.0N 146.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 106.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP192020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2020 13.4N 106.0W WEAK
12UTC 06.10.2020 13.9N 106.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2020 14.1N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2020 14.2N 106.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2020 14.3N 105.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2020 14.5N 105.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2020 14.8N 105.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2020 15.5N 106.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2020 16.0N 107.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2020 16.9N 108.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2020 17.6N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 88.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL252020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2020 21.9N 88.2W WEAK
12UTC 06.10.2020 21.7N 89.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2020 21.1N 90.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2020 21.5N 87.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2020 23.0N 90.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 08.10.2020 23.6N 91.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2020 24.8N 92.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2020 26.1N 93.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 10.10.2020 28.3N 92.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2020 30.3N 91.7W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.10.2020 32.2N 90.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 11.10.2020 34.1N 88.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2020 37.5N 86.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE DELTA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 79.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.10.2020 16.9N 79.7W MODERATE
12UTC 06.10.2020 18.3N 82.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.10.2020 19.7N 84.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.10.2020 21.4N 87.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.10.2020 23.0N 90.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2020 23.6N 91.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2020 24.8N 92.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.10.2020 26.1N 93.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 10.10.2020 28.3N 92.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2020 30.3N 91.7W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.10.2020 32.2N 90.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 11.10.2020 34.1N 88.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.10.2020 37.5N 86.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.4N 124.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.10.2020 13.4N 124.2W WEAK
12UTC 08.10.2020 14.4N 123.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.10.2020 14.5N 124.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.10.2020 14.7N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.10.2020 14.2N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.10.2020 13.6N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.10.2020 13.2N 130.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.10.2020 13.2N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.10.2020 13.3N 134.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 060401

>

2020-10-06 02:57


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 060255
TCDAT1

Hurricane Delta Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

A few hours ago, data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters supported
upgrading Delta to a hurricane. Very recent reports from the Air
Force Hurricane Hunters, who are currently in Delta, support
increasing the intensity a little more to 70 kt. The minimum
pressure has also decreased a few mb from the NOAA mission, and is
now estimated to be 977 mb. Delta has strengthened at a rapid rate
of 40 kt since genesis occurred just 24 hours ago. The hurricane is
quite compact with a developing tight inner core, and even the
tropical-storm-force winds extend only up to 60 n mi or so from the
center.

After moving westward for much of the day, aircraft fixes from NOAA
and the Air Force indicate that the hurricane has resumed a
west-northwest motion, with the latest initial motion estimated to
be 295/6 kt. Delta is expected to move to the northwest at a fairly
quick pace on Tuesday and Wednesday as it moves in the flow between
a subtropical high over the western Atlantic and Post-Tropical
Cyclone Gamma over or near the Yucatan Peninsula. This motion
should take Delta over or very near the northeastern portion of the
Yucatan Peninsula by Tuesday night and over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Wednesday. After that time, the western part of the ridge
is expected to slowly erode as a trough moves eastward across the
south-central U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause
Delta to slow down and then turn northward toward the northern Gulf
coast, and it will likely make landfall there in a little more
than 4 days. The models are in fair agreement, and the NHC
track forecast is only a touch to the west of the previous one.

The hurricane has taken advantage of the near ideal conditions of
low vertical wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and very warm
29-30 C SSTs. These favorable environmental conditions for the
hurricane will persist for the next 2 or 3 days or so, and
therefore, it seems reasonable to believe that rapid intensification
will continue in the short term. Delta is expected to become a major
hurricane in about 24 hours when it is near the Yuctan Peninsula.
If Delta makes landfall on that landmass, it would likely temper
the cyclone's strength for a period of time. Beyond a few days,
when Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf coast, there
will likely be an increase in southwesterly wind shear. These less
conducive upper-level winds and cooler shelf waters should end the
strengthening trend prior to the U.S. landfall. The NHC intensity
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies close to
the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.

Users are reminded to not focus on the details of the track or
intensity forecasts, as the average 4-day track error is around 150
miles and the average 4-day intensity error is close to 15 mph.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected
within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico
beginning Tuesday night, and a Hurricane Warning is in effect.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the
next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash
flooding and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman
Islands beginning early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this
week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous
storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from
Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night
or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of
Delta.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 16.8N 80.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 18.1N 82.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 19.8N 84.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 21.5N 87.1W 105 KT 120 MPH...INLAND
48H 08/0000Z 23.0N 89.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 08/1200Z 24.0N 90.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 25.2N 91.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 28.6N 91.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 33.6N 88.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-06 02:57


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 060255
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...DELTA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHEAST
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 80.3W
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM SW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has replaced the Hurricane Warning with a
Tropical Storm Warning for the province of Pinar Del Rio and
discontinued the Hurricane Watch for the province of Artemisa and
the Isle of Youth.

The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from
Punta Herrero northward to Tulum and from Rio Lagartos westward to
Progresso.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Isle of Youth
* Punta Herrero to Tulum
* Rio Lagartos to Progresso

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 80.3 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A faster
northwestward motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night.  
On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass
southwest of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the
northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan
Channel Tuesday night.  Delta is forecast to move over the southern
Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday, and be over the south-central Gulf
of Mexico late Wednesday and Thursday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is expected
during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be a major
hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles
(110 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the
Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to
right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
by early Tuesday. In the Yucatan Peninsula, hurricane conditions
are expected in the warning area Tuesday night, with tropical storm
conditions expected on Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are
expected in the Tropical Storm Warning area Tuesday night and
Wednesday. In Cuba, tropical storm conditions are expected in the
warning area Tuesday night and tropical storm conditions are
possible in the watch area Tuesday night.

RAINFALL: Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6 inches of rain, with
maximum rainfall as high as 10 inches possible, across portions of
the northern Yucatan Peninsula through mid week. This rainfall may
result in areas of significant flash flooding.

Delta is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated
higher amounts, across portions of Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and
western Cuba through midweek. This rainfall may result in areas of
flash flooding and mudslides.

Later this week into the weekend, Delta is expected to bring heavy
rainfall across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the
southeastern United States.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-06 02:52


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 060250
TCMAT1

HURRICANE DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
0300 UTC TUE OCT 06 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WARNING WITH A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO AND
DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE PROVINCE OF ARTMESIA AND
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
PUNTA HERRERO NORTHWARD TO TULUM AND FROM RIO LAGARTOS WESTWARD TO
PROGRESSO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* ISLE OF YOUTH
* PUNTA HERRERO TO TULUM
* RIO LAGARTOS TO PROGRESSO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 80.3W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 80.3W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 79.7W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.1N 82.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.8N 84.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 21.5N 87.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.0N 89.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.0N 90.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 25.2N 91.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 28.6N 91.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 33.6N 88.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 80.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-10-05 23:44


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 052342
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
800 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...DATA FROM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT DELTA
HAS BECOME A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 79.6W
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Delta was located
near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 79.6 West. Delta is moving
toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A faster
northwestward motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night.  
On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass
southwest of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the
northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan
Channel Tuesday afternoon or evening.  Delta is forecast to move
over the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday,
and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is expected
during the next day or so, and Delta is expected to be a major
hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (25 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 70 miles (110
km) from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from data provided by the
NOAA reconnaissance aircraft is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the
Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to
right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
later tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the
hurricane warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night, with
tropical storm conditions beginning late Tuesday. Hurricane
conditions are expected within a portion of the the Hurricane
Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday night, with tropical
storm conditions expected beginning late Tuesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth beginning Tuesday
afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected by early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan
Peninsula. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and
mudslides.

Later this week into the weekend, Delta is expected to bring heavy
rainfall across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the
southeastern United States.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-05 20:58


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 052055
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Delta Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Visible satellite imagery shows that the convective banding of Delta
has continued to quickly improve since this morning. The primary
convective band now wraps entirely around the center, with what
appears to be a banding-type eye feature occasionally noted. There
are some dry slots between the convective bands but those appear to
be gradually filling in. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft currently
collecting data in the storm environment found peak SFMR winds of 55
kt during its first pass through the center from northwest to
southeast. The plane also reported a minimum pressure of 983 mb,
much lower than previously estimated. The aircraft also observed an
18 nmi-wide-eye that was open to the west-northwest. Assuming that
there are stronger winds yet to be sampled in the northeastern
quadrant, the initial intensity has been raised to 60 kt.

Delta is situated within a very conducive environment for
strengthening. The storm will be moving over SSTs of 29-30 degrees
Celsius and the vertical wind shear is forecast to remain 5 kt or
less while Delta traverses the northwestern Caribbean. These
conditions are expected to allow for rapid strengthening over the
next 24 to 36 hours. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index gives a
better than 50 percent chance of a 35-40 kt increase in wind speed
over the next 24 hours. The NHC intensity forecast follow suit by
calling for rapid intensification over the next day or so, and
Delta is forecast to be a major hurricane when is passes near or
over the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula. Once
the storm reaches the central Gulf of Mexico in 60-72 hours,
increasing southwestern vertical wind shear and cooler shelf waters
over the northern Gulf are likely to result in some reduction in
wind speed as the system nears the northern Gulf coast. Although
there is still significant uncertainty regarding Delta's intensity
when it nears the northern Gulf coast, it is becoming increasing
likely that the system will pose a significant wind and storm surge
threat to a portion of that area.

The center has jogged southward again this afternoon, which appears
to be primarily due to the system organizing rather than a true
storm motion. The initial motion estimate remains an uncertain
275/7 kt. Delta should begin moving west-northwestward this evening,
and a west-northwestward to northwestward motion around the
southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge to its northeast is
expected over the next couple of days. The more southward initial
position and more ridging over the eastern Gulf of Mexico has
resulted in a significant westward shift in the track envelope
through the first 60-72 hours. The NHC has been adjusted in that
direction, and this has required the issuance of a Hurricane Warning
for the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula of Mexico.
After 72 hours, a mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop
over Texas which should cause Delta to turn northward and then
north-northeastward toward the northern Gulf Coast. Although the
track forecast has not changed much during the latter portion of the
period, there is more cross-track spread in the model guidance than
before, which has increased the uncertainty regarding potential
landfall and the timing of Delta's approach to the northern Gulf
Coast.

Key Messages:

1. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected
within portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and are
possible in extreme western Cuba beginning Tuesday night, and a
Hurricane Warning is in effect.

2. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan Peninsula during the
next few days. This rainfall could lead to significant flash
flooding and mudslides.

3. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the Cayman
Islands beginning tonight or early Tuesday, and a Tropical Storm
Warning is in effect.

4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this
week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts, there is an increasing risk of dangerous
storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast from
Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle beginning Thursday night
or Friday. Residents in these areas should ensure they have their
hurricane plan in place and monitor updates to the forecast of
Delta.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 16.2N 79.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 17.1N 80.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 19.0N 83.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 21.0N 86.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 22.6N 88.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
60H 08/0600Z 23.7N 90.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 24.8N 91.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 28.5N 91.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 33.0N 89.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-05 20:55


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 052053
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DELTA RAPIDLY
STRENGTHENING...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 79.4W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of the Yucatan peninsula from Tulum northward and westward to
Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio
* Tulum to Rio Lagartos Mexico
* Cozumel

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 79.4 West. Delta is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest should occur this evening.  A faster northwestward
motion is expected Tuesday through Wednesday night.  On the
forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to pass southwest
of the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and approach the northeastern
portion of the Yucatan peninsula and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday
afternoon or evening.  Delta is forecast to move into the
southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday, and be
over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday and Wednesday
night.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the
maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional rapid strengthening is
expected during the next day or so, and Delta is expected
to be a major hurricane when it nears the Yucatan Peninsula.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure estimated from NOAA reconnaissance
aircraft data is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 4 to 7 feet above normal tide levels along coast of the
Yucatan peninsula within the hurricane warning area, near and to
right of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge
will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected within the
hurricane warning area in the Yucatan Peninsula Tuesday night, with
tropical storm conditions beginning late Tuesday. Hurricane
conditions are expected within a portion of the the Hurricane
Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday night, with tropical
storm conditions expected beginning late Tuesday. Hurricane
conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth beginning Tuesday
afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected by early Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch
area in Cuba on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 3 to 6
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, western Cuba and the northern Yucatan
Peninsula. This rainfall could lead to significant flash floods and
mudslides.

Later this week into the weekend, Delta is expected to bring heavy
rainfall across portions of the central Gulf Coast into the
southeastern United States.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-05 20:55


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 052052
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
2100 UTC MON OCT 05 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM TULUM NORTHWARD AND WESTWARD TO
RIO LAGARTOS...INCLUDING COZUMEL.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO
* TULUM TO RIO LAGARTOS MEXICO
* COZUMEL

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA
* ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.4W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 20SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 45SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.4W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 17.1N 80.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 19.0N 83.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 21.0N 86.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 22.6N 88.7W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.7N 90.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.8N 91.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 28.5N 91.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 33.0N 89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 79.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 06/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-10-05 17:49


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 051747
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
200 PM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...DELTA QUICKLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE CARIBBEAN...
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE STORM...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.1N 79.2W
ABOUT 165 MI...265 KM SSW OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM SSE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests in the northeastern portion of the Yucatan peninsula
should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 79.2 West. Delta is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast later today. A faster northwestward
motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track,
the center of Delta is expected to move away from Jamaica later
today, move near or over the Cayman Islands early Tuesday, and
approach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel Tuesday afternoon or
evening. Delta is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of
Mexico Tuesday night, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico
on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next few days, and Delta is expected to become a hurricane tonight
or Tuesday before it nears western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the south
coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and dangerous waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late today or tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected
within the Hurricane Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday
afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday
morning. Hurricane conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth
beginning Tuesday afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected
by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall could
lead to significant flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-05 14:56


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 051453
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Delta Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

The convective structure of Delta has continued to improve this
morning. Earlier microwave data and early-light visible satellite
imagery showed that the center of the tropical cyclone re-formed
farther south within the area of deep convection. Since that time,
banding has continued to increase around the southern and eastern
portion of the circulation, and a small CDO-like feature has formed.
The intensity has been set at 40 kt, which is a blend of the
subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB and objective satellite
intensity estimates from UW/CIMSS. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft
is scheduled to investigate the tropical storm this afternoon, which
should provide a better assessment of the cyclone's intensity,
structure, and wind field.

With the earlier center re-formation, the initial motion estimate is
a somewhat uncertain 280/6 kt. Delta is expected to resume a
west-northwestward motion later today. A northwestward heading
around the southwestern portion of a deep-layer ridge should begin
tonight or Tuesday, and that general motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected to continue through 60-72 hours. After
that time, a broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop
over the south-central United States, which should weaken the
western portion of the ridge and cause Delta to turn northward
toward the northern Gulf Coast. After day 4, Delta should begin to
accelerate north-northeastward or northeastward ahead of the
aforementioned trough. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted
to the south and west of the previous advisory during the first
couple of days, primarily due to the recent center re-formation and
more southward initial position. After that time, the NHC track is
not much different than the previous forecast and lies near the
center of the tightly clustered dynamical model envelope.

Delta is forecast to traverse very warm waters over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and be in a very low vertical wind shear environment
during the next couple of days. These conditions should allow for
significant strengthening during that time, and the NHC intensity
forecast is at or above the various intensity aids. It is somewhat
surprising that the intensity aids were generally a little lower
this cycle, but the expected low shear and SHIPS rapid
intensification index support the higher than climatological rate
of intensification. After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly shear
and the cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf are likely to
induce some weakening later in the period. The updated NHC
intensity forecast calls for a faster rate of intensification over
the next 48-60 hours, but is similar to the previous advisory
thereafter.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late today or tonight, and a Tropical Storm Warning is
in effect.

2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are expected in
portions of western Cuba by Tuesday afternoon, and a Hurricane
Warning is in effect.

3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days. This rainfall
could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides.

4. Delta is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late this
week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the track
and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is an increasing
risk of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the
coast from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in
these areas should monitor the progress of Delta and check for
updates to the forecast during the week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 16.4N 78.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 17.1N 79.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 18.7N 81.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 20.8N 84.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 22.8N 86.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 24.6N 89.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 26.0N 90.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 28.8N 91.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 33.1N 88.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-05 14:54


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 051452
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...DELTA STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 78.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Warning for the Cuban
province of Pinar del Rio. A Tropical Storm Warning was also been
issued for the Isle of Youth.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuba province of Pinar del Rio

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.6 West. Delta is
moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast later today. A faster northwestward
motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Delta is expected to move away from Jamaica
later today, move near or over the Cayman Islands early Tuesday,
and approach western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is
forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday
night, and be over the south-central Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next few days, and Delta is expected to become a hurricane on
Tuesday before it nears western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Delta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the south
coast of western Cuba near and to right of where the center makes
landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large
and dangerous waves.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late today or tonight. Hurricane conditions are expected
within the Hurricane Warning area in western Cuba by late Tuesday
afternoon, with tropical storm conditions expected by Tuesday
morning. Hurricane conditions are possible on the Isle of Youth
beginning Tuesday afternoon with tropical storm conditions expected
by early Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 4 to 6
inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica, the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. This rainfall could
lead to significant flash floods and mudslides.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-05 14:53


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 051451
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM DELTA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
1500 UTC MON OCT 05 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WAS ALSO BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE ISLE OF YOUTH.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF PINAR DEL RIO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF ARTEMISA
* ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC
* ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 78.6W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 78.6W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 78.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 17.1N 79.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 18.7N 81.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.8N 84.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 22.8N 86.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.6N 89.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 26.0N 90.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 28.8N 91.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 33.1N 88.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 78.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-10-05 11:42


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 051139
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Delta Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO A TROPICAL STORM...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 78.4W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 270 MI...440 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Delta was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 78.4 West. The
storm is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and
this general motion should continue for the next day or so. A
faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Delta is expected to
move away from Jamaica later today, move near or over the Cayman
Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle of Youth and western
Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. Delta is forecast to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next few days, and the tropical storm is expected to be a hurricane
when it moves near or over western Cuba.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Delta can be found in the Tropical
Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western
Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, Delta is expected to produce 3 to
5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to significant
flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall will be possible with this system.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late today. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early
Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-05 08:59


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 050856
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

Deep convection has been steadily improving in both vertical depth
and structure, with the cloud pattern becoming more circular with
upper-level outflow now having become established in all quadrants.
However, there are still some indications in satellite imagery that
the low-level and the mid-/upper-level circulations are not yet
vertically aligned, with the low-level center still located just
inside the northern edge of the convective cloud shield. For now,
the initial intensity remains at 30 kt based on Dvorak satellite
classifications from TAFB and SAB and also UW-CIMSS ADT. However,
SATCON estimates suggest that the cyclone is close to tropical storm
status.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 290/08 kt. Even after
maintaining some continuity with the previous forecast, the initial
position had to be adjusted a little farther to the south and
west based on satellite animation, and the current position may
have to be adjusted farther south on the next forecast cycle due to
possible redevelopment of the center into the deep convective cloud
mass. Otherwise, the previous forecast track reasoning remains
essentially unchanged. The cyclone is expected to move
west-northwestward to northwestward along the southern side of a
deep-layer ridge for the next few days. By day 4 and beyond, a
broad mid- to upper-level trough is forecast to develop across
northern Mexico and Texas, which is expected to create a break in
the ridge and turn the cyclone northward toward the north-central
Gulf coast. The steering flow pattern becomes a little complex on
days 2-3 due to expected binary interaction with Tropical Storm
Gamma or its remnants, which could result in a sharp westward jog,
after which a sharp turn back toward the northwest could occur.
However, the latest NHC model guidance is in fairly good agreement
that the cyclone will make a sharp northward turn between 90W-92W
longitude around 96 hours or so. Thereafter, acceleration toward
the north-northeast or northeast ahead of the approaching trough
and frontal system is anticipated. The new NHC forecast track is a
little to the left of the previous track through 72 hours, mainly
to account for the more westward initial position, and lies down
the middle of the tightly packed model guidance envelope.

The northeasterly deep-layer vertical wind shear that has been
plaguing the cyclone is finally showing signs of abating. The GFS-
and ECMWF-based SHIPS model guidance shows the shear decreasing to
near zero in the 24-48 hour period, which allow for some robust
intensification to occur, assuming that the inner-core wind field
becomes better defined later today. By 96 hours and beyond, the
SHIPS models are forecasting the shear to increase 20-30 kt from
the southwest, which would be expected to induce rapid weakening.
However, the SHIPS models appear to be creating too much shear
over the cyclone's center by incorporating jetstream winds of about
60 kt across Texas, whereas the 200-mb model fields only show winds
of 10-15 kt over the center by 96 hours. As a result, the new
intensity forecast calls for the cyclone to reach its peak
intensity in the 72-96 hour period, followed by weakening due to
likely cold upwelling of shallow cool shelf waters offshore the
southwest coast of Louisiana and Mississippi. The new NHC intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies near the
upper end of the intensity guidance, similar to the
corrected-consensus model HCCA.

Users are reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast
errors are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods,
respectively.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late today, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.

2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in
portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday
afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect.

3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Jamaica, the Cayman
Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days. This rainfall
could lead to significant flash flooding and mudslides.

4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late
this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the
track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk
of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast
from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these
areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for
updates to the forecast during the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 17.0N 78.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 17.4N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 18.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 20.5N 83.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 22.5N 85.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 24.4N 88.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 25.9N 90.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 28.0N 91.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 32.4N 88.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-10-05 08:51


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 050849
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 78.2W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF NEGRIL JAMAICA
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Six was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 78.2
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day
or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is
expected to move away from Jamaica through this morning, move near
or over the Cayman Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle
of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The tropical
cyclone is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm when it nears the
Cayman Islands later today, and be a hurricane when it moves near or
over western Cuba on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Twenty-Six can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western
Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system is expected to produce 3 to
5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to significant
flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall will be possible with this system.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late today. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early
Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-10-05 08:51


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 050849
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
0900 UTC MON OCT 05 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA
* ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 78.2W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 78.2W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 77.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 17.4N 79.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 18.6N 80.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 20.5N 83.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 22.5N 85.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.4N 88.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 25.9N 90.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 28.0N 91.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 32.4N 88.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 78.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-10-05 05:53


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 050550
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
200 AM EDT Mon Oct 05 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 77.8W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Six was located near latitude 16.9 North, longitude 77.8
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day
or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is
expected to pass just south of Jamaica through this morning, move
near or over the Cayman Islands later tonight, and approach the Isle
of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The tropical
cyclone is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm when it nears the
Cayman Islands later today, and be a hurricane when it moves near or
over western Cuba on Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Twenty-Six can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western
Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system is expected to produce 3 to
5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman
Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this
system.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late today. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early
Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-10-05 02:36


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 050234
TCDAT1

Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020

Satellite data indicate that the disturbance just south of Jamaica
has become better organized this evening. Microwave and shortwave
infrared images indicate that the center is now well defined, and
deep convection has been persisting near and to the south of the
center. Based on this data, the system now meets the criteria to be
considered a tropical depression. The initial intensity remains 30
kt for this advisory.

The depression is currently moving west-northwestward at 8 kt on the
southern side of an Atlantic subtropical ridge. A continued
west-northwest to northwest motion at about the same forward speed
is expected during the next 24 to 36 hours, taking the system across
the Cayman Islands and toward western Cuba. Around the time the
depression is expected to be near western Cuba, the models show it
accelerating northwestward as it moves in the faster flow between
the ridge and Tropical Storm Gamma. This motion should bring the
tropical cyclone into the southern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or
early Wednesday. Later on, a notable slow down and a turn to the
north is forecast to occur late in the week when the depression will
likely be approaching the northern Gulf coast. This change in the
forecast motion is a result of the ridge weakening and a trough
approaching the cyclone from the west. The models are in relatively
good agreement, which is surprising since they often diverge for
weak systems, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle of the
guidance envelope.

There is currently some northeasterly shear affecting the
depression, but the models all show the shear lessening by tomorrow
and remaining fairly light for the next few days. These improving
upper-level wind conditions combined with a moist air mass and warm
waters should allow for at least steady strengthening during the
next few days. By late in the week, when the storm is forecast to
approach the U.S. Gulf coast, there could be an increase in
southerly or southwesterly shear, which could limit additional
strengthening by that time. The NHC intensity forecast lies fairly
close to the IVCN and HCCA consensus aids, and shows the depression
becoming a hurricane near western Cuba with additional strengthening
over the Gulf of Mexico.

Users are reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast
errors are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods,
respectively.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late Monday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in
portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday
afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect.

3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days and could
lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late
this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the
track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk
of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast
from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these
areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for
updates to the forecast during the week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 17.0N 77.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 17.4N 78.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 18.3N 79.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 20.0N 81.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 22.2N 84.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 07/1200Z 24.1N 87.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 25.4N 88.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 27.2N 90.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 30.0N 89.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-05 02:35


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 050233
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Six Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
1100 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...DISTURBANCE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...
...FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 77.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM SSW OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Six was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 77.3
West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph
(15 km/h), and this general motion should continue for the next day
or so. A faster northwestward motion is expected on Tuesday and
Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is
expected to pass just south of Jamaica through early Monday, move
near or over the Cayman Islands Monday night, and approach the Isle
of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or evening. The system
is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday
night or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days and the system is
forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman Islands on
Monday, and a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba on
Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Depression Twenty-Six can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western
Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system is expected to produce 3 to
5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches across
Jamaica and western Cuba. This rainfall could lead to
life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over the Cayman
Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with this
system.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early
Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-05 02:35


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 050233
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
0300 UTC MON OCT 05 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA
* ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 77.3W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 77.3W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 77.0W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 17.4N 78.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.3N 79.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 20.0N 81.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 22.2N 84.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.1N 87.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 25.4N 88.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 27.2N 90.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 30.0N 89.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 77.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-10-04 23:34


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 042332
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six
Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
800 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...DISTURBANCE JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 76.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.9 North, longitude 76.9 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion should
continue for the next day or so. A faster northwestward motion is
expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of the
disturbance is expected to pass just south of Jamaica tonight and
early Monday, move near or over the Cayman Islands Monday night, and
approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba Tuesday afternoon or
evening. The system is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf
of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days and the
system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman
Islands on Monday, and a hurricane when it moves near or over
western Cuba on Tuesday.

Conditions are conducive for development and the system is forecast
to become a tropical depression or storm tonight or early Monday. *
Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent *
Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western
Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system has the potential to produce
3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches
across Jamaica, southern Haiti, and western Cuba. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over
the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with
this system.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early
Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-10-04 21:04


Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 042102
TCDAT1

Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020

Visible satellite imagery and earlier scatterometer data indicated
that the circulation associated with the area of low pressure in the
central Caribbean Sea has gradually become better defined. The
associated deep convection does not yet have enough organization to
classify the system as a tropical depression, but there has been
some increase in convection just south of the estimated center. The
earlier ASCAT data revealed peak winds of around 30 kt over the
northeastern portion of the circulation, and that is the basis for
the initial intensity. The disturbance is located over warm waters
and in a moist environment, but there is some modest northeasterly
shear over the system. The global models indicate that the shear
will decrease overnight, and the oceanic and atmospheric environment
is expected to quite favorable for both the development of a
tropical cyclone and subsequent strengthening of the system over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. The
intensity guidance is quite aggressive, but also assumes that the
system already has a tropical cyclone structure. Therefore, the NHC
intensity forecast is a little below the intensity consensus during
the first 24-48 hours, but does show the system at or near hurricane
strength by the time is near western Cuba on Tuesday. Environmental
conditions are expected to remain favorable for strengthening over
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico, and additional strengthening is
predicted during that time. Late in the period, conditions are
forecast to become less conducive as the vertical wind shear
increases and the system nears the cooler shelf waters of the
northern Gulf of Mexico.

The disturbance is moving west-northwestward or 290/9 kt. A mid-
to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic is forecast to build
westward over the next few days, which should continue to steer the
system west-northwestward to northwestward over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The forward speed
of the system is likely to increase in 48 to 72 hours while it
moves between the ridge and Tropical Storm Gamma to its southwest.
After 72 hours, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn
northward around the western portion of the ridge and a mid- to
upper-level trough over the south-central United States. The track
guidance is in relatively good agreement during the first 48 to 72
hours, but there is increasing spread thereafter. Users are
reminded that the average 4- and 5-day NHC track forecast errors
are about 160 to 200 miles at those time periods.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late Monday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in
effect.

2. Dangerous storm surge and hurricane conditions are possible in
portions of western Cuba and the Isle of Youth by Tuesday
afternoon, and a Hurricane Watch is in effect.

3. Heavy rainfall will affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, the
Cayman Islands, and western Cuba during the next few days and could
lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

4. The system is forecast to approach the northern Gulf Coast late
this week as a hurricane. While there is large uncertainty in the
track and intensity forecasts at these time ranges, there is a risk
of dangerous storm surge, wind, and rainfall hazards along the coast
from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Residents in these
areas should monitor the progress of the system and check for
updates to the forecast during the week.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 16.7N 76.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 05/0600Z 17.1N 77.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 05/1800Z 18.0N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 19.0N 80.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 21.0N 82.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 23.1N 85.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 24.7N 87.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 26.5N 90.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 28.6N 90.3W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-04 20:58


Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 042056
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL262020
500 PM EDT Sun Oct 04 2020

...DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXPECTED TO BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND WESTERN
CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 76.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM S OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM ESE OF GRAND CAYMAN
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Cayman Islands has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for the Cayman Islands, including Little Cayman and Cayman
Brac.

The government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Isle of
Youth and the Cuba provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. A
Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Cuban province of La
Habana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and Artemisa
* Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Cayman Islands including Little Cayman and Cayman Brac

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Cuba province of La Habana

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
16.7 North, longitude 76.6 West. The system is moving toward the
west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A west-northwestward to
northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is expected
over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of the
disturbance is expected to pass near or just southwest of Jamaica
tonight and early Monday, move near or over the Cayman Islands
Monday night, and approach the Isle of Youth and western Cuba
Tuesday afternoon or evening. The system is forecast to move into
the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next 2 to 3 days and the
system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it nears the Cayman
Islands, and a hurricane when it moves near or over western Cuba.

Conditions are conducive for development and the system is forecast
to become a tropical depression or storm tonight or early Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Twenty-Six can be found
in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1,
WMO header WTNT41 KNHC, and on the web at
www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT1.shtml.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 3 to 5 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast of the Isle of Youth and along the south coast of western
Cuba near and to right of where the center makes landfall. Near the
coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves.

RAINFALL: Through midweek, this system has the potential to produce
3 to 5 inches of rain with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches
across Jamaica, southern Haiti, and western Cuba. This rainfall
could lead to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Over
the Cayman Islands, 2 to 4 inches of rainfall will be possible with
this system.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands
beginning late Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within
the Hurricane Watch area by Tuesday afternoon, with tropical storm
conditions possible by early Tuesday. Tropical Storm conditions
are possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area in Cuba by early
Tuesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-10-04 20:57


Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 042055
TCMAT1

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE TWENTY-SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262020
2100 UTC SUN OCT 04 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS...INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND
CAYMAN BRAC.

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE ISLE OF
YOUTH AND THE CUBA PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF LA
HABANA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF PINAR DEL RIO AND ARTEMISA
* ISLE OF YOUTH

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAYMAN ISLANDS INCLUDING LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBA PROVINCE OF LA HABANA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 76.6W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 76.6W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 76.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 17.1N 77.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 18.0N 79.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 80.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 21.0N 82.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.1N 85.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.7N 87.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 26.5N 90.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 28.6N 90.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 76.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 05/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>