Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for PAULETTE-20
in Bermuda,

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 230406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 23.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.9N 95.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2020 0 28.9N 95.8W 1007 24
1200UTC 23.09.2020 12 29.7N 94.7W 1006 24
0000UTC 24.09.2020 24 30.2N 93.2W 1003 30
1200UTC 24.09.2020 36 31.5N 91.1W 1004 27
0000UTC 25.09.2020 48 33.1N 88.0W 1005 26
1200UTC 25.09.2020 60 34.4N 87.9W 1009 15
0000UTC 26.09.2020 72 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE TEDDY ANALYSED POSITION : 41.7N 64.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2020 0 41.7N 64.1W 954 58
1200UTC 23.09.2020 12 44.8N 62.1W 967 49
0000UTC 24.09.2020 24 49.5N 59.0W 978 36
1200UTC 24.09.2020 36 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 118.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2020 0 19.4N 118.6W 997 39
1200UTC 23.09.2020 12 20.3N 120.9W 997 37
0000UTC 24.09.2020 24 20.8N 122.9W 996 40
1200UTC 24.09.2020 36 20.9N 124.9W 995 45
0000UTC 25.09.2020 48 21.1N 127.0W 994 46
1200UTC 25.09.2020 60 21.2N 128.9W 995 46
0000UTC 26.09.2020 72 21.3N 131.0W 999 42
1200UTC 26.09.2020 84 21.3N 133.1W 1004 36
0000UTC 27.09.2020 96 21.4N 135.5W 1006 33
1200UTC 27.09.2020 108 21.5N 138.0W 1008 33
0000UTC 28.09.2020 120 21.4N 140.4W 1008 28
1200UTC 28.09.2020 132 21.4N 143.0W 1008 27
0000UTC 29.09.2020 144 21.5N 144.8W 1007 24

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.8N 20.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.09.2020 0 34.8N 20.6W 1007 30
1200UTC 23.09.2020 12 35.8N 18.0W 1004 33
0000UTC 24.09.2020 24 36.1N 16.7W 1003 39
1200UTC 24.09.2020 36 35.4N 17.3W 1009 41
0000UTC 25.09.2020 48 34.5N 18.9W 1015 35
1200UTC 25.09.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 230406

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 230406

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 23.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA ANALYSED POSITION : 28.9N 95.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL222020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.09.2020 28.9N 95.8W WEAK
12UTC 23.09.2020 29.7N 94.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2020 30.2N 93.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2020 31.5N 91.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2020 33.1N 88.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2020 34.4N 87.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE TEDDY ANALYSED POSITION : 41.7N 64.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL202020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.09.2020 41.7N 64.1W INTENSE
12UTC 23.09.2020 44.8N 62.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 24.09.2020 49.5N 59.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 24.09.2020 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM LOWELL ANALYSED POSITION : 19.4N 118.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP172020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.09.2020 19.4N 118.6W MODERATE
12UTC 23.09.2020 20.3N 120.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2020 20.8N 122.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2020 20.9N 124.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2020 21.1N 127.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2020 21.2N 128.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2020 21.3N 131.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2020 21.3N 133.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2020 21.4N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2020 21.5N 138.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2020 21.4N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2020 21.4N 143.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2020 21.5N 144.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 34.8N 20.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.09.2020 34.8N 20.6W WEAK
12UTC 23.09.2020 35.8N 18.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.09.2020 36.1N 16.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2020 35.4N 17.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2020 34.5N 18.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 230406

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 230236
TCDAT1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Discussion Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020

Paulette has been devoid of deep convection since early Tuesday,
and the shallow convection mentioned in the previous advisory has
also waned. Therefore, Paulette has again become a post-tropical
cyclone, and this is the last NHC advisory on this system. Recent
ASCAT data showed that the system still had a small area of 35 kt
winds so the initial intensity is held at that value. The
post-tropical cyclone will be moving over waters of 22-23 degrees
Celsius and remain within an area of moderate vertical wind
shear. This should result in gradual weakening over the next
couple of days.

The post-tropical cyclone continues to move eastward or 080/10 kt.
This motion is forecast to continue through midday Wednesday, but a
reduction is forward speed is expected by Wednesday night as the
system becomes vertically shallow. The remnant low is expected to
turn southward in 24-36 hours, with a faster west-southwestward
motion anticipated later in the forecast period when it becomes
embedded within the low-level northeasterly flow.

This is the last NHC advisory on Paulette. Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo
France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 34.8N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 23/1200Z 35.2N 18.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 24/0000Z 35.4N 17.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/1200Z 35.1N 17.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/0000Z 34.0N 19.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/1200Z 33.0N 21.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z 32.5N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 230236
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Advisory Number 44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 AM GMT Wed Sep 23 2020

...PAULETTE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THE SECOND TIME...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 20.0W
ABOUT 445 MI...720 KM ESE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Paulette was located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 20.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 12 mph (19
km/h). An eastward to east-northeastward motion is forecast through
midday Wednesday. A decrease in the forward motion along with turns
to the southeast then south are expected late Wednesday through
Thursday. A west-southwestward motion is forecast to begin by late
this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast, and the post-tropical cyclone is
expected to become a remnant low by Wednesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on Paulette. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO
header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 230236
TCMAT1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0300 UTC WED SEP 23 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 20.0W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 20.0W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 20.6W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.2N 18.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.4N 17.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.1N 17.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 34.0N 19.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.0N 21.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 32.5N 26.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 20.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON PAULETTE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 222050
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

Although Paulette lacks the typical definition for deep convection,
there remains some convection with cloud tops to -20 deg C
encircling an eye-like feature noted in the lower cloud layer. Given
the low tropopause level across that portion of the Atlantic basin
causing the relatively low cloud tops, Paulette is being maintained
as a tropical cyclone for at least this cycle. Vertical wind shear
near 30 kt along with sea-surface temperatures of 23-22 deg C are
expected to result in a gradual weakening and spin down of
Paulette's circulation throughout the forecast period. As a result,
the small cyclone should become a remnant low on Wednesday and
dissipate by Friday or Saturday when the shallow system will be
moving westward into westerly mid-level shear.

Paulette is moving eastward or 080/10 kt. This general motion is
forecast to continue through Wednesday as Paulette remains embedded
within deep-layer westerly flow on the east side of mid- to
upper-level trough. As Paulette weakens and becomes more vertically
shallow, the post-tropical cyclone is expected to slow down in the
36-48 time period and turn southward. Thereafter, Paulette should be
steered westward by low-level easterly flow on the south side of
the Bermuda-Azores High. The new NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous advisory track, and essentially lies down the middle
of the NHC track guidance models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 34.8N 21.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 35.0N 19.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 23/1800Z 35.4N 17.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 24/0600Z 35.3N 16.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z 34.7N 16.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0600Z 33.6N 19.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z 32.8N 22.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 222049
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
900 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL LATER TONIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING-- AGAIN....


SUMMARY OF 900 PM GMT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 21.2W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM ESE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM GMT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 34.8 North, longitude 21.2 West. Paulette is
moving toward the east near 12 mph (19 km/h). An eastward to
east-northeastward motion is forecast through Wednesday. A decrease
in the forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south
are expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A southwestward
motion is forecast to begin by late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a
remnant low by Wednesday morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 222049
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 43
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
2100 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 21.2W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.8N 21.2W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 21.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 35.0N 19.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.4N 17.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.3N 16.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 34.7N 16.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 33.6N 19.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 32.8N 22.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.8N 21.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 221449
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

The last of the deep convection near the center of Paulette
dissipated early this morning, and the circulation now consists of
low-topped shower activity with the cloud tops warmer than -30
degrees C. The nearest shower activity that could qualify as deep
convection is nearly 100 n mi from the cyclone's center and appears
to be associated with a frontal boundary. A pair of recent ASCAT
overpasses sampled peak winds of 33 kt, and therefore the initial
advisory intensity is being lowered to 35 kt. Moderate-to-strong
vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures are expected
to continue to weaken Paulette, and the cyclone is forecast to
become a remnant low within 36 h. If the deep convection does not
return to Paulette soon, then the cyclone could be declared a
remnant low by as early as this evening.

Paulette is moving eastward at 12 kt, and this general motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday as the cyclone remains
embedded in the flow around a mid-latitude trough to its north. The
trough is expected to lift out of the region in about 36 h, and a
ridge is forecast to build in its place in a couple of days. This
evolution should cause Paulette, or its remnants, to slow down and
make a 180 degree right turn over the course of a couple of days. By
late week, whatever is left of the cyclone should be moving
west-southwestward. An alternate scenario depicted by a couple of
the models is that Paulette never escapes the flow around the trough
and continues to move east-northeast until it dissipates. The latest
NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the previous one, but
is somewhat uncertain after 36 h due to the diverging model
solutions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 35.0N 22.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 35.2N 20.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 35.6N 18.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 35.9N 16.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1200Z 35.6N 15.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0000Z 34.9N 15.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1200Z 33.9N 18.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 221448
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 42
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 PM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

...PAULETTE WEAKENS AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW
WITHIN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM GMT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.0N 22.3W
ABOUT 335 MI...535 KM SE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM GMT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 35.0 North, longitude 22.3 West. Paulette is
moving toward the east near 14 mph (22 km/h). An east to
east-northeast motion is expected through Wednesday. A slowing of
forward motion along with turns to the southeast then south are
expected Wednesday night through Thursday. A southwestward motion
is forecast to begin by late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to become a
remnant low within the next day or so.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 221448
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 42
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
1500 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 22.3W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 60SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.0N 22.3W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.9N 23.0W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 35.2N 20.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.6N 18.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.9N 16.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.6N 15.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 34.9N 15.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 33.9N 18.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.0N 22.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 220900
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

The tops of Paulette's convective clouds have been warming since
the previous advisory, and first-light visible images show that a
swirl of low- to mid-level clouds is about all that is left. The
estimated maximum winds remain 50 kt based on last evening's ASCAT
pass, but that value could be generous given the degraded
convective structure. New scatterometer passes this morning should
give us a better idea of how the winds have changed. Moderate to
strong vertical wind shear and cool sea surface temperatures are
expected to induce weakening over the next couple of days, and
Paulette is expected to become post-tropical by 48 hours. If
convection does not redevelop later today, the transition to a
post-tropical cyclone would likely occur before 48 hours. The
remnant low is expected to dissipate by day 5.

Paulette is moving toward the east-northeast, or 065/15 kt. This
motion is expected to continue for the next 36 hours. After that
time, there is significant model divergence, with several models
(such as the GFS) taking Paulette to the Iberian Peninsula while
others (such as the ECMWF) stop it on a dime and turn it
westward. The latter solution appears more realistic since a
shallow convection-less low would be steered toward the west by
ridging to the north. The NHC forecast is a blend of the previous
interpolated official forecast and the HCCA consensus aid.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 34.7N 23.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 35.1N 21.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 35.4N 19.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 35.8N 17.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 35.6N 16.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
60H 24/1800Z 34.9N 16.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0600Z 34.3N 17.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0600Z 33.3N 21.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 220858
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
900 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

...PAULETTE MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST SOUTHEAST OF THE
AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM GMT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 23.7W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM GMT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 23.7 West. Paulette is
moving toward the east-northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). An east or
east-northeast motion at a slower forward speed is expected through
Wednesday. Paulette is then expected to turn southward and
southwestward Wednesday night and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Paulette
is expected to become post-tropical by Wednesday night or Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 220859
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0900 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 23.7W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 120SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.7N 23.7W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 24.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 35.1N 21.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 35.4N 19.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 35.8N 17.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.6N 16.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 34.9N 16.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 34.3N 17.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 33.3N 21.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.7N 23.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT41 KNHC 220235
TCDAT1

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

Deep convection associated with the post-tropical remnants of
Paulette that moved southward to the southwest of the Azores over
the past few days has become better organized over the past 6-12
hours. An ASCAT over pass from a few hours ago indicate that
increase in convective organization has result in strengthening and
the system is being classified as a tropical cyclone once again.
The ASCAT revealed peak winds of just over 45 kt, and given that
instruments typical undersampling, the initial intensity is set at
50 kt. The scatterometer data also indicated a small radius of
maximum winds of about 30 n mi, therefore the system is being
classified as a tropical cyclone rather than subtropical.

Paulette is moving east-northeastward or 075/14 kt. The tropical
storm should continue moving east-northeastward ahead of a
mid-latitude trough dropping southeastward over the northeastern
Atlantic, and the global models are in reasonably good agreement
through 24-36 hours. After that time, there is significant
bifurcation in the track guidance with the GFS, HWRF, and HMON all
taking a stronger Paulette faster east-northeastward over the
eastern Atlantic, while the UKMET and ECMWF show a weaker cyclone
slowing down and turning west-southwestward in the low-level
steering flow late in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast
shows Paulette slowing down and turning southward, and then
southwestward between 48-96 h, but it's not nearly as far west as
the UKMET and ECMWF models. Given the large spread in the track
guidance at that time period, the NHC forecast is near the HFIP
corrected consensus.

Paulette is already over marginal SSTs and cooler waters
lie ahead along the forecast track. This, along with moderate
vertical wind shear should result in gradual weakening beginning on
Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast calls for Paulette to weaken
to a tropical depression in 48-60 h, and become a remnant low
shortly thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 33.9N 25.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 34.4N 22.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 34.7N 20.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 35.1N 18.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 35.3N 16.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 34.7N 16.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0000Z 34.0N 16.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z 33.1N 18.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT31 KNHC 220234
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 AM GMT Tue Sep 22 2020

...PAULETTE REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM SOUTH OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM GMT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 25.3W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SSE OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM GMT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 25.3 West. Paulette is
moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion should continue through Tuesday night. A much slower
eastward or east-southeastward motion is expected by late Wednesday
and Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through early Tuesday.
Gradual weakening should begin by late Tuesday and continue through
Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM GMT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT21 KNHC 220234
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0300 UTC TUE SEP 22 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 25.3W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 90SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 25.3W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.6N 26.2W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 34.4N 22.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 34.7N 20.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 35.1N 18.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.3N 16.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 34.7N 16.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 34.0N 16.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 33.1N 18.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.9N 25.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 161440
TCDAT2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Conventional GOES-16 visible and enhanced BD-curve satellite imagery
show that Paulette has merged with the large baroclinic zone
extending over the north-central Atlantic. Deep convection just to
the north of the surface center that was noted on earlier microwave
images has dissipated. Therefore, the system is now classified as
extratropical cyclone and this is the last NHC advisory. The initial
intensity is conservatively lowered to 75 kt based on 1221 UTC
scatterometer data, earlier Dvorak intensity estimates and a SATCON
analysis of 64 kt.

The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of the global models
and is just above the HCCA multi-model consensus. Although not
specified in the NHC forecast, there is some chance that Paulette
could reacquire tropical or subtropical characteristics later this
week or over the weekend when it turns southward back over warmer
oceanic temperatures. This possibility will be monitored for
inclusion in future Tropical Weather Outlooks, if necessary.

The post-tropical cyclone's initial motion is east-northeastward,
or 060/30 kt. The low is expected to continue quickly in this
general motion through Thursday morning within the deep-layer
mid-latitude flow. By mid-period, Post-Tropical Paulette is
expected to slow down and turn southeastward to southward as it
moves on the west side of mid- to upper-level low to the east of the
cyclone. The new track forecast is based primarily on the HCCA and
TVCA consensus aids.

Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas
estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the
hurricane are up to 50 feet. Swells from Post-Tropical Cyclone
Paulette have spread far away from the center and continue to affect
Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast.

This is the last NHC advisory on Paulette. Additional information
on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 43.3N 45.2W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 17/0000Z 45.0N 39.9W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.3W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 18/0000Z 45.1N 33.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/1200Z 42.5N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 19/0000Z 39.5N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/1200Z 37.0N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/1200Z 35.0N 32.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/1200Z 34.0N 32.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 161440
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Paulette Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...PAULETTE BECOMES A STRONG EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NORTH
ATLANTIC...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.3N 45.2W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM ESE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Paulette was located near latitude 43.3 North, longitude 45.2 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east-northeast near
35 mph (56 km/h), and this general motion is expected through
Thursday. Afterward, the cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn
toward the southeast and south late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further weakening is forecast during the next
couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect
Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east
coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 161439
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
1500 UTC WED SEP 16 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.3N 45.2W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT.......160NE 240SE 200SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 540SE 660SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.3N 45.2W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.6N 46.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.0N 39.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...180NE 220SE 210SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 30SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 220SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 45.1N 33.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 42.5N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 39.5N 32.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 37.0N 32.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 20SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 35.0N 32.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 34.0N 32.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.3N 45.2W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER PAULETTE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PAULETTE CAN BE FOUND IN
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 160832
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

Paulette is looking less and less tropical by the hour.
Geostationary satellite and microwave data indicate that the
low-level center is exposed to the south of the main area of deep
convection. The hurricane is also very near a baroclinic zone and
stable air is wrapping into the southern half of the circulation.
An earlier ASCAT pass showed peak winds close to 80 kt, and since
that instrument can't resolve peak winds in a hurricane, the initial
intensity remains 85 kt near the high end of the satellite intensity
estimates.

Paulette is forecast to move over much cooler waters and into
an environment of strong wind shear and dry air, therefore,
weakening is expected. The hurricane is forecast to become an
extratropical cyclone later today as it moves over SSTs of around
20C and gets tangled up with a nearby front. Although not
explicitly forecast, there is a chance that Paulette could regain
tropical or subtropical characteristics late this weekend or early
next week when it moves southward back over warmer waters.
The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous
one, which is a blend of the intensity consensus models and the GFS.

The hurricane continues to race east-northeastward at about 25 kt.
A continued fast east-northeastward motion within the mid-latitude
westerlies is expected for another day or so. After that,
Post-Tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn
southeastward and then southward as it moves on the west side of a
deep-layer low pressure system. The new track forecast is similar
to the previous one and lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus
models.

Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas
estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the
hurricane are 51 feet. Swells from Paulette have spread far
away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada,
Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 41.9N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 43.9N 43.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 17/0600Z 45.5N 38.2W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/1800Z 45.6N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0600Z 43.8N 33.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/1800Z 41.1N 33.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/0600Z 38.5N 33.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/0600Z 35.3N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0600Z 33.5N 33.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 160829
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 16 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.9N 49.1W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 41.9 North, longitude 49.1 West. Paulette is
moving toward the east-northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this
general motion is expected into Thursday. Afterward, Paulette
is forecast to slow down and turn toward the south-southeast and
south late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Paulette is
expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect the
Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east
coast of the United States through tonight. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 160828
TCMAT2

HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0900 UTC WED SEP 16 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 49.1W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT.......160NE 220SE 200SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 540SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 41.9N 49.1W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.2N 50.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.9N 43.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...180NE 220SE 210SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.5N 38.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 10NE 30SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 220SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 45.6N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 210SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 43.8N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 41.1N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 90SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 38.5N 33.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 35.3N 33.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 33.5N 33.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 41.9N 49.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 160234
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Paulette is gradually losing tropical characteristics.
Geostationary satellite and microwave data indicate that the
low-level center is located near the southern edge of the main area
of deep convection and that the hurricane is starting to get
tangled up with a nearby baroclinic zone. A recent ASCAT-B
overpass showed maximum winds in the 75-80 kt range in the
southwestern quadrant. It is quite impressive to see such high
values from that instrument given that ASCAT usually can't resolve
the maximum winds in hurricanes. The initial intensity is
therefore held at 85 kt.

Since Paulette is forecast to move over much cooler waters and into
an environment of strong wind shear and dry air, weakening is
expected. Paulette is forecast to become an extratropical cyclone
in about 24 hours when it will likely merge with the nearby front
and move over SSTs of about 20 C. There is some chance that
Paulette could regain tropical or subtropical characteristics
toward the end of the forecast period when it is expected to move
back over warmer waters. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an
update of the previous one, which is a blend of the intensity
consensus models and the GFS.

The hurricane continues to race east-northeastward at about 24 kt.
A continued fast east-northeastward motion within the mid-latitude
westerlies is expected for another day or so. After that,
Post-tropical Paulette is expected to slow down and turn
southeastward and then southward as it moves on the west side of a
deep-layer low pressure system. The new track forecast is similar
to the previous one and lies between the HCCA and TVCA consensus
models.

Paulette is producing a large area of high seas. The maximum seas
estimated by the Ocean Prediction Center near the core of the
hurricane are 52 feet. Swells from the hurricane have spread far
away from the center and continue to affect Atlantic Canada,
Bermuda, and portions of the U.S. east coast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 40.7N 52.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 42.6N 47.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 44.7N 40.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 17/1200Z 45.7N 36.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 18/0000Z 44.8N 34.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/1200Z 42.4N 33.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 19/0000Z 40.1N 33.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 20/0000Z 36.8N 34.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 21/0000Z 34.4N 34.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 160234
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN
A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.7N 52.4W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 52.4 West. Paulette is
moving toward the east-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this
general motion is expected into Thursday. Afterward, Paulette
is forecast to slow down and turn toward the south-southeast and
south late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Although gradual weakening is forecast, Paulette is
expected to become a powerful extratropical cyclone by Wednesday
night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect the
Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and portions of the east
coast of the United States through Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 160233
TCMAT2

HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0300 UTC WED SEP 16 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 52.4W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 24 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 110SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......160NE 200SE 130SW 240NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 300SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 52.4W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 54.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 42.6N 47.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 150SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 44.7N 40.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 45.7N 36.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 44.8N 34.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 42.4N 33.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 40.1N 33.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 36.8N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 34.4N 34.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.7N 52.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 152035
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Another fortuitous AMSR2 microwave pass over the cyclone showed the
outer concentric ring open over the south semicircle and a more
noticeable vertical tilt. Furthermore, the cloud tops associated
with the deep convection in the north quadrant have warmed during
the past several hours. Consequently, the initial intensity is
lowered to 85 kt and is in best agreement with the subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates.

Paulette continues to lose its tropical characteristics as it
mingles with the rapidly approaching baroclinic zone from the
northwest. In fact, earlier successive METOP A and B scatterometer
passes on Paulette revealed that the northwest quadrant 34-kt wind
radii had nearly doubled in size due to the aforementioned invading
frontal zone moving out of the Canadian Maritimes. The sea surface
temperatures quickly decrease to less than 20C within 24 hours as
Paulette accelerates east-northeastward. As a result, the cyclone
should weaken rather quickly and complete its extratropical
transition on Thursday, as indicated in the global models and the
statistical-dynamical guidance.

Paulette is moving east-northeastward, or 060/26 kt, and this motion
should continue with a further increase in forward speed through
Thursday. Toward the end of the week, the cyclone will likely turn
south-southeastward to southward as it moves within the western
peripheral flow of a mid- to upper tropospheric cut off low to the
east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is basically an update
of the previous advisory and is based on the various consensus
guidance.

The initial wind radii and subsequent forecast wind radii were
adjusted based on METOP A/B ASCAT 1110 UTC and 1424 UTC
scatterometer passes.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 39.5N 55.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 41.4N 50.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 44.0N 42.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 45.8N 36.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 17/1800Z 45.8N 33.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/0600Z 43.9N 32.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1800Z 41.2N 32.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1800Z 38.0N 32.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1800Z 34.5N 32.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 152035
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...PAULETTE WEAKENS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE IN A FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.5N 55.0W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 39.5 North, longitude 55.0 West. Paulette is
moving toward the east-northeast near 30 mph (48 km/h), and this
general motion with a further increase in speed is expected through
Thursday. Afterward, Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn
toward the south-southeast and south late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast to begin on
Wednesday as the cyclone undergoes extratropical transition and
moves over much cooler water. Paulette should complete its
transition to an extratropical cyclone Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect
Bermuda and portions of the east coast of the United States into
Wednesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 151437
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

A 0533 UTC AMSR2 overpass on Paulette already reveals structural
changes associated with the approaching mid-latitude baroclinic
zone. The microwave image and GOES-16 mid- to upper-level water
vapor imagery show drier more stable air beginning to intrude into
the western portion of the cyclone. Additionally, Paulette's
rain shield is more confined to the northern half of the system,
while drying out in the southern semi-circle. Only fragments
of the eyewall remain in that particular area. The initial
intensity is held at 90 kt for this advisory and is supported by
the subjective satellite intensity estimate T-numbers from TAFB and
SAB. Although Paulette is beginning to lose some of its tropical
characteristics, the cyclone still has a small window of opportunity
to strengthen while it continues moving over warm sea surface
temperatures during the next 12-18 hrs. Afterward, the water
temperature drop drastically to less than 20C while Paulette becomes
more involved with the aforementioned baroclinic system. As a
result, the cyclone should weaken rather rapidly and complete its
extratropical transition on Thursday, and this is based on an
agreement of the large-scale models and the statistical-dynamical
guidance.

The aforementioned microwave pass indicated that the center of
circulation was a bit west-southwest of the previous position and
therefore the initial estimated motion is believed to be
northeastward, or 055/25 kt. Paulette is forecast to accelerate
further and turn east-northeastward later tonight and continuing
through Wednesday night, then slow down a bit on Thursday. Toward
the end of the week, the cyclone will likely turn east-
southeastward to south-southeastward as it moves within the
western peripheral flow of a mid- to upper tropospheric cut off low
to the east of the cyclone. The NHC track forecast is just a little
faster than the previous one through 60 hours and lies closer to the
HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach model and is also similar to the
GFEX ECMWF/FV3 simple consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 38.3N 57.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 40.1N 53.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 42.7N 46.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 45.0N 40.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 18/0000Z 45.6N 33.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 18/1200Z 43.9N 33.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/1200Z 39.9N 32.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/1200Z 37.0N 31.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 151437
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...PAULETTE HEADING NORTHEASTWARD AT AN EVEN FASTER PACE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.3N 57.9W
ABOUT 570 MI...915 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 38.3 North, longitude 57.9 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). A faster motion
toward the east-northeast is expected through Thursday. Afterward,
Paulette is forecast to slow down and turn toward the east-southeast
and south-southeast late Thursday and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible through tonight, but rapid
weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday as the cyclone
undergoes extratropical transition. Paulette should complete its
transition to an extratropical cyclone on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect portions
of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the east coast of
the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 151436
TCMAT2

HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
1500 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 57.9W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 130SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 300SE 360SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.3N 57.9W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 59.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.1N 53.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 42.7N 46.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.0N 40.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.2N 35.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 45.6N 33.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 170SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 43.9N 33.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 140SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 39.9N 32.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 37.0N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.3N 57.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 150831
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

Paulette has generally changed little overnight. The hurricane
still has a central dense overcast feature with an eye occasionally
evident in satellite images. Convective banding remains well
organized, especially to the north of the center. The satellite
intensity estimates range from 77 to 102 kt and based on that data,
the initial intensity is again held at 90 kt.

The hurricane could strengthen slightly in the short term due to a
combination of baroclinic influences from an approaching trough and
relatively warm water beneath the cyclone. However, a steady
weakening trend should commence on Wednesday when Paulette moves
over much cooler waters and into an environment of strong wind
shear. These factors should ultimately lead to extratropical
transition, which is forecast to be complete by day 3. However,
some of the guidance suggests that this could occur up to a day
sooner than that. The NHC intensity forecast is near a blend of
the HCCA, IVCN, and GFS models.

Paulette continues to pick up speed, and the latest initial motion
estimate is northeastward at 17 kt. The hurricane is expected to
accelerate northeastward even more during the next couple of days
as it becomes more embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. After
a few days, however, Paulette will likely turn southeastward and
then southward as it moves in the flow on the west side of a cut
off deep-layer low. There are some differences in the models on
how sharply Paulette turns southward, but they generally agree on
the overall scenario. The NHC track forecast lies roughly between
the HCCA and TVCA consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 37.0N 60.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 38.9N 56.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 41.3N 50.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 43.7N 44.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 45.4N 39.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 17/1800Z 46.0N 35.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 44.9N 34.2W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0600Z 41.6N 33.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0600Z 38.7N 32.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 150830
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 15 2020

...PAULETTE MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT ACCELERATES
NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 60.5W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 60.5 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). A faster motion
toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected during the next
couple of days. Paulette is then forecast to slow down and turn
southeastward by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible through tonight, but rapid
weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect portions
of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the east coast of
the United States through tonight. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 150830
TCMAT2

HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0900 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 60.5W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 130SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 60.5W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.3N 61.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.9N 56.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 41.3N 50.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.7N 44.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.4N 39.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 46.0N 35.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 170SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 44.9N 34.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 140SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 41.6N 33.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 38.7N 32.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 60.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 150235
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

Paulette's cloud pattern has degraded during the past few hours, and
recent microwave imagery suggests that the eyewall of the hurricane
was at least for a time open to the south. A larger mostly closed
ring of convection was also present, indicating that Paulette may be
going through an eyewall replacement cycle. Satellite-based current
intensity estimates range from 65 to 102 kt, but have generally
decreased since the last advisory. The intensity estimate remains 90
kt at this time, but there is a high degree of uncertainty in this
assessment.

Assuming Paulette can maintain a well-defined inner core, either
through the completion of an eyewall replacement cycle or
redevelopment of convection in the southern eyewall, it should have
an opportunity to strengthen during the next 24 h. The intensity
guidance is not quite as bullish anymore, so the intensity forecast
has been lowered slightly, but it is still above the intensity
consensus through 36 h. Paulette could begin to lose tropical
characteristics around that time and rapid weakening is expected as
a result. The NHC forecast conservatively shows Paulette becoming
fully post-tropical in 72 h, but there are indications from the GFS
simulated satellite imagery that it could complete its transition
sooner.

Paulette has turned northeastward and is accelerating, as
predicted, with an initial motion estimate of 35/15 kt. The system
will likely race generally east-northeastward for the next few
days. A slower motion and eventual turn southeastward or even
southward is expected near the end of the week when the cyclone
encounters a large cut-off low over the eastern Atlantic, however
it should be post-tropical by that time. The track guidance remains
in excellent overall agreement overall, and NHC forecast is based
heavily on TVCN and HCCA.

The wind radii analysis and forecast were updated based on data
from an ASCAT-A overpass at 0050 UTC.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 35.7N 62.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 37.4N 59.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 39.8N 54.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 42.3N 48.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 44.6N 41.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 46.0N 37.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 45.8N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 19/0000Z 43.0N 33.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 20/0000Z 39.0N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 150235
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...PAULETTE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.7N 62.3W
ABOUT 275 MI...440 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 35.7 North, longitude 62.3 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h). A faster motion
toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected for the next
couple of days. Paulette is then forecast to slow down and turn
eastward by late Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is possible Tuesday and early Wednesday. Rapid
weakening is forecast to begin by late Wednesday and will likely
continue through the rest of the week.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles
(370 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette will continue to affect portions
of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the east coast of
the United States through Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 150235
TCMAT2

HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0300 UTC TUE SEP 15 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 62.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT.......150NE 200SE 130SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.7N 62.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.1N 63.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.4N 59.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.8N 54.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 42.3N 48.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 44.6N 41.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 46.0N 37.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 170SE 170SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 45.8N 35.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 140SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 43.0N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 39.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.7N 62.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 142040
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...PAULETTE MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 63.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located
near latitude 34.5 North, longitude 63.8 West. Paulette is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward
the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward
the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday
afternonn through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is likely through Tuesday night as
Paulette accelerates northeastward to east-northeastward. Gradual
weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds on Bermuda should persist into the evening
hours.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and associated coastal flooding and rough
surf conditions on Bermuda should begin to subside this evening.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
this evening, with rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 142039
TCMAT2

HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
2100 UTC MON SEP 14 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 63.8W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......170NE 170SE 110SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 63.8W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 64.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.1N 61.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.4N 57.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 190SE 160SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.8N 51.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.3N 44.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.4N 39.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 170SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 46.6N 35.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 180SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 44.3N 32.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 39.1N 31.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.5N 63.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 141742
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
200 PM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...PAULETTE STRENGTHENING WHILE MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND RAIN CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.9N 64.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 020 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Hurricane Warning
for Bermuda with a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
occurring in the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located
near latitude 33.9 North, longitude 64.4 West. Paulette is moving
toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion should continue into the early evening hours. A turn toward
the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward
the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday night
through Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (170 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely through
Tuesday night as Paulette accelerates northeastward to east-
northeastward. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions on Bermuda should persist into the
mid to late afternoon hours.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves into this afternoon.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 141454
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

The 53rd Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft observed a
peak 700 mb flight-level wind of 93 kt and a SFMR wind of 80 kt 25
miles to the northeast of the center of the 35 mile wide eye. The
central pressure, also reported by the aircraft, has fallen to 970
mb. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 85
kt for this advisory.

Additional strengthening is expected as Paulette moves away from
Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North Atlantic.
Paulette should be at or near major hurricane strength within the
next 24 hours. At the 48 hour forecast period, weakening will
commence as the cyclone becomes involved with a mid-latitude
shortwave trough approaching from the Canadian Maritimes. Paulette
should begin losing its tropical characteristics toward the end of
the week. The peak intensity is increased a little at the 24 hour
period to agree with the HCCA and IVCN intensity multi-models and
follows these aids through the remaining portion of the forecast
period.

The initial motion estimate is 355/12 kt. Paulette will begin
accelerating northeastward by Tuesday morning then turn
east-northeastward with a further increased in forward motion early
Wednesday morning. A slower eastward to southeastward motion is
forecast on Friday in response to a larger mid- to upper
tropospheric cut-off low approaching the eastern Atlantic. The NHC
forecast is a little faster than the previous one beyond the 36
hour period and basically lies down the middle of the tightly
clustered deterministic and regional model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. The eye of Paulette will gradually move away from Bermuda
today, however, hurricane and tropical storm conditions, storm
surge, and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into this
afternoon.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 33.4N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 35.1N 63.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 37.5N 59.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 40.1N 54.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 42.9N 47.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 17/0000Z 45.5N 41.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 47.1N 36.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 45.5N 33.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 40.1N 32.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 141453
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SOUTHERN EYEWALL CONTINUE OVER BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 64.8W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring
on Bermuda in the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 33.2 North, longitude 64.8 West. Paulette is
moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion should continue into this afternoon. A turn toward
the northeast is expected later tonight followed by a turn toward
the east-northeast and an increase in forward speed Tuesday night
through Friday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening through Tuesday night is likely
as Paultette acclerates northeastward to east-northeastward.
Gradual weakening is forecast to begin on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A weather station in Wreck Road, Bermuda recently
reported a sustained wind of 80 mph (130 km/h) and a gust to 107 mph
(170 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions should persist into
the mid afternoon hours.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves into this afternoon.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 141450
TCMAT2

HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
1500 UTC MON SEP 14 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING
ON BERMUDA IN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 64.8W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 240SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 64.7W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.9N 64.9W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.1N 63.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.5N 59.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 40.1N 54.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 42.9N 47.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.5N 41.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 170SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 47.1N 36.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 180SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 45.5N 33.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 40.1N 32.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 64.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 141253
TCUAT2

Hurricane Paulette Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
900 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...EYE OF PAULETTE MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA...
...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND TORRENTIAL RAINS
STILL AFFECTING BERMUDA...

The southern portion of the eyewall is currently spreading over the
island of Bermuda with hurricane-force winds and torrential rains.

A weather station in Wreck Road, Bermuda, recently reported a
sustained wind of 65 mph (105 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.1N 65.0W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

This is the last hourly position update issued on Hurricane
Paulette.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 141157
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
800 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...EYE OF PAULETTE MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SOUTHERN EYEWALL AFFECTING THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.9N 64.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...95 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring
on Bermuda or will begin again in a couple of hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Paulette was located over northeastern Bermuda or near latitude 32.9
North, longitude 64.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the
north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the north is
expected soon and should continue into this afternoon. A faster
motion toward the northeast is expected by this evening and
should continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 95 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette
turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). Hurricane-force winds are returning as the southern
portion of Paulette's eyewall continues to move over the island.
Tropical-storm-force winds will continue possibly into the early
afternoon across the entire island.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on hurricane
hunter aircraft and surface observations on Bermuda is 970 mb
(28.64 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are returning to Bermuda from the south
and southwest as the southern eyewall passes over the island soon.
Hurricane conditions should subside around mid-morning, but
tropical storm conditions will persist into late-morning and
possibly early afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves into this afternoon.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

The final Tropical Cyclone Update will be issued at 900 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 141052
TCUAT2

Hurricane Paulette Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
700 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...EYE OF PAULETTE MOVING AWAY FROM THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA...
...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS AFFECTING BERMUDA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST...

The eye of Paulette just barely north-northwest of the island of
Bermuda. The southern portion of the eyewall with hurricane-force
winds and torrential rains currently spreading over the island.

All persons are urged to not venture outside until the storm passes
this afternoon as winds will increase suddenly from the southwest.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM AST...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.6N 64.8W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 140955
TCUAT2

Hurricane Paulette Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
600 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...ALL OF BERMUDA STILL IN THE EYE OF PAULETTE...
...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL SOON AFFECT
BERMUDA FROM THE SOUTHWEST...

The eye of Paulette will move north-northwestward to northward this
morning, bringing the southern portion of the eyewall with
hurricane-force winds and torrential across the entire island of
Bermuda very soon.

All persons are urged to not venture outside until the storm passes
this afternoon as winds will increase suddenly from the southwest.

SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 64.7W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 350 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 140851
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

The large, 35-40-mile-wide eye of Paulette is located over
northeastern Bermuda, and nearly the entire island is inside the
eye. The last Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter mission measured
peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 88 kt in the northeastern quadrant
where data from satellites and the Bermuda radar (the radar is still
functioning) indicate a large burst of deep convection has developed
and persisted in that part of the eyewall, likely bringing down much
of those winds to the surface. Using a standard 90-percent
adjustment factor yields a surface wind estimate near 80 kt, and
that is the intensity used for this advisory. The last reported
pressure by the aircraft was 973 mb, which has been confirmed by
surface observations from Bermuda.

The initial motion estimate is 345/10 kt. The track, intensity, and
wind radii forecasts remain essentially unchanged since all of the
latest NHC guidance appears to be tightly dialed in on Paulette's
future. Additional strengthening appears likely after Paulette moves
away from Bermuda and accelerates northeastward over the North
Atlantic. Paulette is expected to be at or near major hurricane
strength on Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, weakening is
forecast as Paulette interacts with a mid-latitude trough and begins
to lose its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is
remains just above the intensity consensus, but is within the
tightly clustered guidance envelope at all times.

Confidence in the track forecast also remains high, and the latest
track guidance is tightly packed about the previous advisory track.
Paulette will move northward away from Bermuda today, followed by a
turn toward the northeast by tonight and on Tuesday. A slower
eastward to southeastward motion is expected by Friday when a large
mid-tropospheric cut-off low over the eastern Atlantic is forecast
to begin influencing Paulette's track.

Key Messages:

1. The eye of Paulette will gradually move away from Bermuda
this morning, with hurricane conditions returning within a couple
of hours. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and
very heavy rainfall will likely continue into this afternoon.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 32.3N 64.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 33.9N 64.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 36.1N 62.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 38.4N 57.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 40.9N 51.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 16/1800Z 43.4N 45.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 45.3N 40.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 45.5N 36.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 41.6N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 140850
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...ENTIRE ISLAND OF BERMUDA INSIDE HURRICANE PAULETTE'S EYE...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS TO RETURN FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST SHORTLY DUE TO PAULETTE'S SOUTHERN EYEWALL...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 64.7W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are occurring
on Bermuda or will begin again in a couple of hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Paulette was located over northeastern Bermuda or near latitude
32.3 North, longitude 64.7 West. Paulette is moving toward the
north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion should
continue early this morning. A turn toward the north is expected by
late morning and continue into this afternoon. A faster motion
toward the northeast is expected by this evening and continue
through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the eye of Paulette will
continue to pass over Bermuda during the next couple of hours,
followed by passage of the southern portion of the eyewall.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely when Paulette
turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda tonight through
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). Although winds have subsided across much of Bermuda due
to Paulette's eye passage, hurricane-force winds will return
shortly when the southern portion of Paulette's eyewall passes over
the island. Tropical-storm-force winds will continue possibly into
the early afternoon across the entire island.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on surface
observations on Bermuda is 973 mb (28.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Although most of Bermuda is currently inside Paulette's eye
where much weaker winds exist, hurricane conditions will return to
Bermuda from the south and southwest when the southern eyewall
passes over the island in a couple of hours. Hurricane conditions
should subside around mid-morning, but tropical storm conditions
will persist into late-morning and possibly early afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves into this afternoon.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 140850
TCMAT2

HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0900 UTC MON SEP 14 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING
ON BERMUDA OR WILL BEGIN AGAIN IN A COUPLE OF HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 64.7W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 270SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.3N 64.7W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 64.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.9N 64.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.1N 62.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.4N 57.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.9N 51.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 43.4N 45.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 170SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 45.3N 40.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 180SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 45.5N 36.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 41.6N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.3N 64.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 140802
TCUAT2

Hurricane Paulette Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...MUCH OF BERMUDA NOW IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF PAULETTE'S EYE...
...STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL AFFECT BERMUDA
FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN A COUPLE OF HOURS...

An island-wide power outage has resulted in more than 20,000
customers losing electrical service.

Reports from the Bermuda Weather Service indicate that a gust
to 117 mph (189 km/h) was measured at the Marine Operations Center
(MAROPS), which is elevated at 290 ft above sea level.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM AST...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 64.6W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 345 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 140658
TCUAT2

Hurricane Paulette Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
300 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF PAULETTE RAKING BERMUDA WITH HURRICANE-FORCE
WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS PAULETTE A LITTLE STRONGER...

Internet communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been
disrupted due to a possible island-wide power outage. Only cell
phone service is available.

The L.F. Wade International Airport observing system recently
measured a sustained wind of 62 mph (102 km/h) and a gust to 89 mph
(143 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 300 AM AST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 64.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 140556
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
200 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF PAULETTE MOVING ONSHORE BERMUDA...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS RAKING BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 64.4W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM SSE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located
an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and Bermuda radar
near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 64.4 West. Paulette is moving
toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Paulette is forecast to
continue moving northwestward this morning and then turn northward
by this afternoon. A faster motion toward the northeast is expected
this afternoon through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the eye of
Paulette will pass over Bermuda within the next few hours.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast as Paulette moves closer to Bermuda this
morning and continuing into the afternoon. Additional strengthening
is likely when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from
Bermuda tonight through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). Winds have steadily increased on Bermuda during the
past few hours and will continue to increase this morning. An
observing station at the National Museum of Bermuda recently
reported a wind gust to 96 mph (155 km/h). A weather observing
station at Pearl Island reported a wind gust of 70 mph (113 km/h)
while a reporting station at the Bermuda Heliport measured a wind
gust to 72 mph (116 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
hurricane hunter plane is 973 mb (28.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring on Bermuda now, and
winds will steadily increase this morning. Hurricane conditions are
expected to each Bermuda during the next 2 to 3 hours and will
continue into early afternoon.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
today, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 140501
TCUAT2

Hurricane Paulette Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
100 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...NORTHERN EYEWALL OF PAULETTE WITH HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS
APPROACHING BERMUDA...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT AND BERMUDA RADAR DATA
SHOW PAULETTE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...

An observing station at the National Museum of Bermuda recently
reported a sustained wind of 62 mph (100 km/h) and a gust to 86 mph
(138 km/h), and another station at Pearl Island reported a sustained
wind of 57 mph (91 km/h) and a gust of 69 mph 111 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 100 AM AST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 64.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT62 KNHC 140401
TCUAT2

Hurricane Paulette Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1200 AM AST Mon Sep 14 2020

...PAULETTE MOVING STEADILY CLOSER TO BERMUDA...
...SUSTAINED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS SPREADING ACROSS THE
ISLAND...

An automated station at The Crescent recently reported a
sustained wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a gust of 64 mph (104
km/h), and another station at Pearl Island reported a sustained
wind of 51 mph (81 km/h) and a gust of 61 mph (98 km/h).

Hourly position estimates will be provided until Paulette
makes landfall.

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM AST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 64.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 140246
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

The eye of Paulette is steadily nearing Bermuda. Although it has
appeared slightly ragged at times in IR imagery, radar imagery from
Bermuda and the NOAA P3 show that the eye and eyewall of Paulette
are very well defined in all quadrants but the southwest. The NOAA
hurricane hunter plane measured peak flight-level winds of 89 kt
(which adjust to 80 kt at the surface) and SFMR winds of 70 kt.
Taking an average of those supports the initial intensity of 75 kt.
The minimum pressure measured by the NOAA aircraft in its last pass
through the eye was 976 mb.

The track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts for Paulette are very
similar to the last advisory. Given its improved structure over the
past day or so and its favorable upper-air environment, some
additional strengthening appears likely as Paulette approaches
Bermuda during the next few hours. Further intensification is
possible after the hurricane accelerates northeastward away from
Bermuda and Paulette is expected to be at or near major hurricane
strength on Tuesday. By the end of the forecast period, weakening is
expected as Paulette interacts with a mid-latitude trough and begins
to lose its tropical characteristics. The NHC intensity forecast is
generally just above the intensity consensus but is within the
tightly clustered guidance envelope at all times.

Confidence in the track forecast is quite high and the models are in
excellent agreement on Paulette's future for the next few days. The
hurricane will approach Bermuda and turn northward tomorrow, then
accelerate northeastward through the middle of the week. A slower
eastward or even southeastward motion is possible by Friday when a
large cut-off mid- to upper-level low over the eastern Atlantic is
forecast to begin influencing Paulette's track.

Key Messages:

1. The eye of Paulette will approach Bermuda early Monday and
hurricane conditions are expected to begin on the island within the
next few hours. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge,
and very heavy rainfall will likely continue into Monday afternoon.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 31.4N 64.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 34.9N 63.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 37.1N 60.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 39.3N 55.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 41.6N 49.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 43.8N 44.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 46.0N 37.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 43.5N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 140246
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...EYE AND EYEWALL OF PAULETTE NEARING BERMUDA...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS BERMUDA WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 64.0W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 64.0 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Paulette is
forecast to continue moving northwestward overnight and then turn
northward on Monday. A faster motion toward the northeast is
expected late Monday through Wednesday. On the forecast track the
eye of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda early Monday morning.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Some
strengthening is forecast as Paulette moves closer to Bermuda
overnight and early Monday. Additional strengthening is likely when
Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday
through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). Winds have steadily increased on Bermuda during the past
few hours and will continue to increase during the next few hours.
An unofficial observing station at Cedarvale South recently reported
a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). An automated station at Cresent
reported a wind gust of 56 mph (90 km/h), and another station at
Pearl Island reported a gust of 70 mph (112 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
hurricane hunter plane is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring on Bermuda now, and
winds will steadily increase tonight. Hurricane conditions are
expected to first reach Bermuda overnight and will continue into
Monday morning.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 140246
TCMAT2

HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0300 UTC MON SEP 14 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 64.0W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 64.0W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 63.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.9N 63.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.1N 60.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 50NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.3N 55.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.6N 49.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 170SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 43.8N 44.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 180SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 46.0N 37.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 43.5N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 64.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 132354
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
800 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...RAIN BANDS OF PAULETTE BRINGING HEAVY RAIN AND TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS TO BERMUDA...
...CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 63.6W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
few hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located
by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft and Bermuda radar near latitude
30.9 North, longitude 63.6 West. Paulette is moving toward the
northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight. A turn toward the north with a decrease in
forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a faster
northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Paulette will move near or over Bermuda early
Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a
dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and
early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette
turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). Multiple observing stations on Bermuda have reported
tropical-storm-force wind gusts during the past hour.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
plane is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occuring on Bermuda now, and
winds will steadily increase through the evening. Hurricane
conditions are expected to first reach Bermuda late tonight and
will continue into Monday morning.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 132039
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Paulette has recovered from the dry air intrusion that was eroding
the eastern eyewall this morning. A ring of deep convection with
cloud tops ranging from about -50 to -65 C now completely surrounds
a partially cleared eye. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft
investigating the hurricane earlier this afternoon measured peak
flight-level winds of 84 kt, which reduces to about 67 kt at the
surface. However, since that time there has been steady improvement
in the satellite presentation, and the latest Dvorak satellite
T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are now at 4.5, supporting increasing
the initial intensity to 75 kt for this advisory.

Paulette is expected to remain in a low-shear environment over warm
SSTs for the next 24-36 h, so gradual strengthening is likely during
that time. Around 48 h from now, vertical wind shear is forecast to
rapidly increase ahead of an approaching mid- upper level trough.
This should cause the cyclone to begin weakening. By 72 h, Paulette
is expected to be over waters less that 26 degrees C and should
remain over cooler waters for the remainder of the forecast period.
Around that same time, global models are indicating that the cyclone
will begin to interact with a frontal boundary associated with the
aforementioned trough. This should induce a gradual transition of
Paulette to an extratropical cyclone, and that transition should be
completed by 120 h, if not sooner. The latest NHC intensity forecast
is little changed from the previous one and shows Paulette
continuing to strengthen as it passes near or over Bermuda early
Monday. The forecast also shows Paulette becoming a major hurricane
by Monday night, after the cyclone has moved away from Bermuda. This
intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected
consensus, HCCA.

Paulette is moving northwestward at 11 kt, to the southwest of a
mid-level ridge. There is no change to the forecast track reasoning.
This northwest motion should continue until just after the cyclone
passes Bermuda Monday morning. Later on Monday, the hurricane should
turn north, then northeastward, as it rounds the periphery of the
ridge. After turning northeastward, the cyclone is expected to
accelerate as it gets picked up in the mid-latitude flow ahead of
the approaching trough. Later on in the forecast period a slower
eastward motion is indicated once the trough bypasses the cyclone.
The latest NHC forecast was nudged only slightly to the left of the
previous one, and is in agreement with tightly clustered global and
regional track guidance. Tropical storm conditions should reach
Bermuda in the next couple of hours, with hurricane force winds
arriving there overnight.

Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane today
and will be near the island tonight and Monday. A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning this evening, and a hurricane warning is in
effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 30.6N 63.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 33.9N 64.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 36.1N 62.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 38.1N 57.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 40.3N 52.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 42.4N 47.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 45.5N 38.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 44.4N 34.1W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 132038
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA WITHIN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...
...PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY NEED TO BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 63.1W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 313 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
12 to 24 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to reach Bermuda
this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Paulette was located
near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 63.1 West. Paulette is moving
toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north with a
decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a
faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over
Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches
Bermuda late tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening
is possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from
Bermuda late Monday through Monday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda
late tonight. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength within the next couple of hours, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 132038
TCMAT2

HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
2100 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.1W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 313 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.1W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 62.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.9N 64.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 36.1N 62.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 38.1N 57.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 40.3N 52.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 170SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 42.4N 47.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 180SW 190NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 45.5N 38.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 44.4N 34.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 63.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 14/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 131753
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
200 PM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...CORE OF PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR BERMUDA MONDAY MORNING...
...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN
THERE BY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 62.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to
reach Bermuda this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 30.2 North, longitude 62.6 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north with a
decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a
faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over
Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a
dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and
early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette
turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently measured a
minimum central pressure of 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight
or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength by this evening, making outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 131449
TCMAT2

HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
1500 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT
MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 61.9W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT.......170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 210SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 61.9W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 61.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.9N 63.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 25SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...170NE 110SE 80SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 35.0N 63.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 37.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 39.1N 55.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 41.4N 49.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 200SE 160SW 190NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 43.9N 42.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 44.0N 36.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 61.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 131450
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Paulette this
morning found peak 700-mb flight-level winds of 92 kt, which reduces
to around 75 kt at the surface. However, around that same time the
peak winds measured by the SFMR instrument on board the aircraft
were only 58 kt. It is possible that the stronger winds suggested by
the flight-level values were not reaching the surface at that
location. Later on in the flight, the SFMR measured 64-kt winds in
the northwestern quadrant. Since there has been no notable change to
the structure of the hurricane since the aircraft was in the system
a few hours ago, the initial intensity is being held at 70 kt and is
a compromise of those two different peak values measured by the
aircraft.

Infrared satellite imagery has been showing some dry air intrusion
over the eastern portion of the circulation, causing a break in the
eyewall there over the past few hours. There is currently deep
convection firing around the remainder of the eyewall, and therefore
it is anticipated the dry air will be worked out of the system soon.
Very low wind shear and warm waters will support strengthening over
the next couple of days, and Paulette is expected to be a dangerous
hurricane as it nears Bermuda Monday morning. The window for
strengthening should continue for another 12-24 h after the cyclone
passes Bermuda, and Paulette could become a major hurricane during
that time. After 48 h, vertical wind shear is forecast to rapidly
increase. After 72 h, Paulette is expected to cross the 26 degree C
SST isotherm, and by 120 h those SSTs will be near 22 degrees C.
The NHC forecast shows a weakening trend beginning after 48 h due to
the negative environmental factors. By 120 h, the global models
suggest that Paulette will have completed a transition to an
extratropical cyclone. The only change to the NHC intensity
forecast from the previous advisory was a slight upward adjustment
over the first few days due to the increase in strength found by
the aircraft this morning. This forecast is in between the LGEM and
HFIP corrected consensus, HCCA.

Paulette is now moving northwestward at 12 kt, to the southwest of a
mid-level ridge. This motion should continue until just after the
cyclone passes Bermuda. Later on Monday, the hurricane should turn
north, then on Monday night northeastward, as it rounds the
periphery of the ridge. After turning northeastward, the cyclone
is expected to accelerate as it gets picked up in the mid-latitude
flow ahead of an approaching mid- to upper-level trough. Later on
in the forecast period, a slower eastward motion is indicated once
the aforementioned trough bypasses the cyclone. The latest NHC
forecast track is little changed from the previous one through 48 h
and lies in the middle of the latest global and regional track
model guidance. Beyond 48 h, the NHC forecast is a little faster
than the previous one, and lies near the tightly clustered consensus
track guidance. On the forecast track, tropical storm conditions
should reach Bermuda by this evening, with hurricane force winds
arriving there overnight.

Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane today
and will be near the island tonight and Monday. A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning this evening, and a hurricane warning is in
effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 29.9N 61.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 30.9N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 32.8N 64.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 35.0N 63.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 37.0N 60.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 16/0000Z 39.1N 55.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 41.4N 49.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 43.9N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 44.0N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 131450
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...PAULETTE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA...
...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN
THERE BY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 61.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to
reach Bermuda this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 61.9 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected through tonight. A turn toward the north with a
decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday, followed by a
faster northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over
Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a
dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and
early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette
turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight
or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength this afternoon or evening, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches expected.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 131157
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
800 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS PAULETTE A LITTLE STRONGER...
...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
BERMUDA BY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 61.4W
ABOUT 280 MI...390 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to
reach Bermuda this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 61.4 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion
toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected through tonight.
A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move
near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently reported that the
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is
expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late
tonight and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible
when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late
Monday through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from reconnaissance
aircraft data is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight
or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength this afternoon or evening, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda today
through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 130851
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

Over the past 6 hours, conventional and passive microwave satellite
data indicate that very little change to Paulette's overall
convective cloud pattern and inner-core structure has occurred.
A recent GMI pass indciated that the inner-core convection remains
somewhat disheveled due to a narrow but pronounced band of dry air
having penetrated the mid-levels of the cyclone. However, the
low-level eye feature remains intact with a diameter of at least 30
nmi. Given the little change in structure since the previous
reconnaissance mission, the intensity is being maintained at 65
kt. Another Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft will be
investigating Paulette later this morning to provide a better
estimate of the hurricane's intensity.

The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward or 300/12 kt.
Overall, there is no significant change to the previous track
forecast or reasoning. The global and regional models are in
excellent agreement on Paulette passing over or near Bermuda during
the 24-36 hour period as the cyclone rounds a sharp east-to-west
oriented subtropical ridge located near and due east of Bermuda.
After passing Bermuda and moving north of the ridge in about 36
hours, Paulette is forecast to accelerate northeastward ahead of an
approaching deep-layer trough and associated surface cold front.
There is one important feature to mention -- the official forecast
track is west of the latest 0600 UTC interpolated models due to the
interpolated model tracks taking the center of Paulette at least 30
nmi east of Bermuda. In contrast, the GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF are less
than 6 nmi apart at 12-48 hours, and that consensus brings the
hurricane across or just west of Bermuda in about 30 hours.
Therefore, the new NHC official track forecast is essentially just
an update and extension of the previous advisory track, and lies
just west of the tightly packed NHC guidance envelope.

Environmental conditions appear favorable to Paulette to strengthen
during the next 72 hours or so, with only occasional intrusions of
dry mid-level air briefly interrupting the intensification process.
The ragged inner core structure will likely delay intensification
this morning, but by the this afternoon and continuing into Monday,
the vertical shear is forecast by the global models to decrease to
near zero, which should allow for significant strengthening to
occur. In fact, it highly probable that Paulette will continue to
intensify as the hurricane passes over Bermuda. By 48 hours when the
hurricane is expected to be north of Bermuda, baroclinic
interaction with the aforementioned deep-layer trough is forecast
to aid in the intensification process with Paulette possibly
becoming a major hurricane around 72 hours. Thereafter, increasing
vertical wind shear in excess of 25 kt should gradually weaken the
cyclone. It is possible that by 96 hours or so, Paulette could merge
with a frontal system and become a powerful extratropical low. For
now, however, Paulette is forecast to remain just ahead of the
front within the warm sector of a flat frontal wave. The official
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and is near
the upper end of intensity guidance throughout the 120-h forecast
period.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday
and will be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in
effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 29.4N 60.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1800Z 30.2N 62.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 34.0N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 35.9N 62.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 15/1800Z 37.8N 57.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 39.3N 54.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 42.0N 46.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 43.8N 40.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 130851
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...PAULETTE MOVING CLOSER TO BERMUDA...
...STRONG WINDS...STORM SURGE...AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
BERMUDA BY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 60.8W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to
reach Bermuda Sunday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 60.8 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion
toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected through tonight.
A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move
near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to be a
dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight and
early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when Paulette
turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday through
Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by tonight
or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm
strength this afternoon or evening, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda today
through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 130850
TCMAT2

HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0900 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT
MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH BERMUDA SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 60.8W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 90SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 60.8W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 60.2W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.2N 62.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 34.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.9N 62.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 37.8N 57.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 39.3N 54.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 190NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 42.0N 46.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 43.8N 40.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 60.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 130552
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
200 AM AST Sun Sep 13 2020

...PAULETTE MOVING TOWARD BERMUDA...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY
THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 60.4W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to
reach Bermuda Sunday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 60.4 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A motion
toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected through tonight.
A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move
near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected
to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late tonight
and early Monday. Some further strengthening is possible when
Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from Bermuda late Monday
through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km).

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 981 mb (28.97
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday
night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical
storm strength this afternoon or evening, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will likely bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
today through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 130240
TCDAT2

Hurricane Paulette Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft made multiple passes
through the center of Paulette earlier this evening. The plane
reported max 850-mb flight-level winds of 78 kt and believable SFMR
winds of 58 kt. A dropsonde in the southeast quadrant measured
adjusted mean boundary layer winds of just over 60 kt while multiple
center drops revealed that the minimum pressure is now down to 981
mb. Taken together, these observations support an intensity of 65
kt, making Paulette the 6th hurricane of the 2020 Atlantic season.

The plane found the Paulette has turned west-northwestward and is
nearly exactly on the previous forecast track. With no major changes
in the track guidance either, there is no reason to make any changes
of note to the previous NHC track forecast at this time. A mid-level
ridge building to the north of Paulette should keep the hurricane
moving generally west-northwestward for the next day or so. The
ridge and a mid-level trough to the west should then slide eastward
by early Monday, causing Paulette to slow and turn northward, moving
very near or over Bermuda Monday morning. Paulette is then forecast
to turn northeastward and accelerate in that direction by Tuesday.
The NHC forecast remains in the middle of the tightly clustered
guidance suite at all forecast hours.

Paulette appears to be getting more vertically aligned as the shear
that has affected the cyclone for the past several days slowly
decreases. Further intensification appears likely through early
Monday given the warm SSTs below Paulette and favorable upper-air
environment that is expected to develop around the cyclone. Dry air
in the surrounding environment could be a limiting factor, but all
of the intensity guidance continues to indicate that Paulette will
be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches Bermuda late Sunday and
early Monday. Further intensification will then be possible for
another day or so after the hurricane begins to move away from
Bermuda and it could be near major hurricane strength by the middle
of next week. The NHC intensity forecast is near the middle of the
latest intensity guidance throughout the forecast period.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on Sunday
and will be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning is in
effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and
the east coast of the United States. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 28.9N 59.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 29.7N 61.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 31.0N 63.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 32.6N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 34.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 15/1200Z 36.2N 61.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 37.7N 57.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 41.0N 49.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 43.5N 42.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 130239
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Paulette Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...PAULETTE NOW A HURRICANE...
...STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY
SUNDAY EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 59.7W
ABOUT 385 MI...615 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to
reach Bermuda Sunday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Paulette was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 59.7 West. Paulette
is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
west-northwest or northwest motion is expected through Sunday night.
A turn toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast
on Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move
near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and
Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it approaches
Bermuda late Sunday and early Monday. Some further strengthening is
possible when Paulette turns northeastward and moves away from
Bermuda late Monday through Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles
(315 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft was 981 mb (28.97 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by Sunday
night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical
storm strength Sunday afternoon or evening, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette will likely bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
Sunday through Monday, with rainfall of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
east coast of the United States. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 130238
TCMAT2

HURRICANE PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0300 UTC SUN SEP 13 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS THAT
MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH BERMUDA SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT
LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 59.7W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 59.7W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 59.1W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.7N 61.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 100SE 80SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 31.0N 63.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 90SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.6N 65.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 45SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 36.2N 61.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 37.7N 57.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 190NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 41.0N 49.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 43.5N 42.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 59.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 122340
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
800 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING PAULETTE...
...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THAT COULD MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS
DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH BERMUDA BY SUNDAY
EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 59.2W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds that
make outside preparations difficult or dangerous are expected to
reach Bermuda in about 24 hours. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 28.7 North, longitude 59.2 West. Paulette is moving toward
the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west-northwest or
northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn toward the
north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on Monday,
followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over
Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. The Hurricane Hunter plane has not yet completed its pattern
and should provide more information about winds associated with
Paulette during the next couple of hours. The tropical storm is
forecast to strengthen and will likely become a hurricane tonight.
Paulette is expected to be a dangerous hurricane when it is near
Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb (28.97 inches)
based on reports from the reconnaissance aircraft.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength by late Sunday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to
Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to
6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and
will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 122046
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

Convective cloud tops have cooled again as deep convection has
redeveloped since this morning, with an eye-like feature noted in
visible satellite imagery. Since the storm is still being affected
by 20-25 kt of southerly shear, it is assumed that the low-level
center is still displaced to the south of this feature a bit. But
it won't be surprising if the low- and mid-level centers become
collocated soon as the shear drops significantly during the next
6-12 hours. The initial intensity remains 60 kt, and we should get
a much better handle on Paulette's maximum winds and structure once
the first Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft reaches the storm this
evening.

The motion remains northwestward (305/13 kt) due to a break in the
subtropical ridge to the north-northeast of Paulette. A
mid-tropospheric high currently centered near the U.S. Mid-Atlantic
coast is expected to slide eastward to the north of Paulette during
the next 24 hours, which should cause the cyclone to turn
west-northwestward tonight. Once the high becomes established over
the central Atlantic, Paulette is expected to recurve around its
western periphery toward a longwave trough over the northeastern
United States Sunday night through Monday night. On days 3 through
5 of the forecast period, Paulette should be accelerating
northeastward toward the north Atlantic, embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The new NHC track forecast is embedded
among the very tightly clustered guidance envelope, and no
significant changes were made from the morning forecast.

As stated above, deep-layer shear is expected to be 10 kt or less
between 12 and 48 hours. While ocean waters are plenty warm at
28-29 degrees Celsius, the main possible limiting factor for
strengthening would be mid-level dry air, with the SHIPS model
diagnosing ambient relative humidities of 30-40 percent for the next
couple of days. But, if the shear remains low enough, that dry air
is unlikely to infiltrate the circulation, and Paulette is
therefore expected to intensify during the next 2-3 days. The NHC
intensity forecast is close to the SHIPS, HCCA, and HWRF solutions,
showing a peak intensity just under the major hurricane threshold
in 2-3 days, when Paulette should be starting to move away from
Bermuda.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on
Sunday and be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning
is in effect for the island. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda,
and are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States during the next day or two. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 28.4N 58.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 33.5N 64.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 15/0600Z 35.3N 63.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 37.0N 59.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 40.0N 52.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 43.5N 44.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 122045
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...PAULETTE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT...
...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE ON BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 58.5W
ABOUT 460 MI...745 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 58.5 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwest or
west-northwest motion is expected through Sunday night. A turn
toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on
Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over
Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to
become a hurricane tonight. Paulette is expected to be a dangerous
hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength by late Sunday, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property
should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to
Bermuda Sunday through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to
6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and
will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 122045
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
2100 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 58.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......170NE 100SE 50SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 58.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 57.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.5N 64.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.3N 63.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 37.0N 59.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 40.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 43.5N 44.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 58.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 13/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 121746
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
200 PM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...PAULETTE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BERMUDA...
...LARGE SWELLS EXPECTED TO REACH THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 57.8W
ABOUT 510 MI...820 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 57.8 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwest or
west-northwest motion is expected through late Sunday. A turn
toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on
Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move near or over
Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to
become a hurricane later today or tonight. Paulette is expected to
be a dangerous hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength by late Sunday evening, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday
through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and
will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 121456
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

Paulette's structure is going through a bit of an evolution as the
deep-layer shear backs from southwesterly to southeasterly. Most
of the deep convection had waned earlier this morning, but new
convection is beginning to develop near the center as the cyclone
reconstitutes itself. For now, the initial intensity remains 60
kt. An overnight AMSR microwave pass showed that Paulette has
well-defined low-level banding features, and this structure should
allow the cyclone to strengthen as vertical shear falls below 10 kt
during the next 12-24 hours. Strengthening is anticipated to
continue through day 3, and after that time, gradual weakening is
possible due to increasing southwesterly shear. The intensity
guidance has been fairly stable for the past few forecast cycles,
and no significant changes were required to this new NHC intensity
forecast, which lies close to the HCCA model and just a bit above
the intensity consensus. Paulette is likely to be strengthening
while it makes its closest approach to Bermuda in about 48 hours,
and the GFS-based SHIPS and HWRF models each suggest that there is
a possibility of it becoming a major hurricane in 72 hours.

Paulette is moving northwestward (310/13 kt), with a break in the
subtropical ridge located due north of the storm. The ridge may
strengthen briefly over the next day or so, causing Paulette to
move west-northwestward for a short time, but it should resume the
northwestward motion by late Sunday. After that time, an
approaching longwave trough over the northeastern United States
will erode the ridge eastward, causing Paulette to recurve sharply
toward the north and then northeast between days 2 and 3. The
hurricane is then expected to accelerate east-northeastward toward
the north Atlantic on days 4 and 5, embedded within the
mid-latitude flow. The track guidance is well clustered and has
not shown any significant shifts over the past few forecast cycles.
Therefore, the new NHC track forecast is similar to the previous
one.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on
Sunday and be near the island Sunday night and Monday. A prolonged
period of strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall is expected
on Bermuda beginning late Sunday evening, and a hurricane warning
has been issued for the island. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda,
and are expected to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States during the next day or two. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 27.5N 57.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 28.5N 59.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 29.5N 61.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 30.8N 63.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 32.4N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 34.2N 64.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 35.8N 61.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 39.0N 54.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 121456
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON BERMUDA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.5N 57.2W
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Warning for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 27.5 North, longitude 57.2 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A northwest or
west-northwest motion is expected through late Sunday. A turn
toward the north with a decrease in forward speed is forecast on
Monday, followed by a northeastward motion Monday night and
Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Paulette will move
near or over Bermuda Monday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to
become a hurricane later today or tonight. Paulette is expected to
be a dangerous hurricane when it is near Bermuda Sunday night and
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Sunday night or early Monday. Winds are expected to first reach
tropical storm strength by late Sunday evening, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce
significant coastal flooding on Bermuda in areas of onshore winds.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.

RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda Sunday
through Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches likely.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, and Bermuda and
will continue to spread westward to the east coast of the United
States over the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 121456
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
1500 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 57.2W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 80SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 150SE 270SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 57.2W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 56.6W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 59.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 80SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.5N 61.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.8N 63.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.4N 64.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 30SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 34.2N 64.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 35.8N 61.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 39.0N 54.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 42.0N 47.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.5N 57.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 121154
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
800 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...PAULETTE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.2N 56.8W
ABOUT 590 MI...955 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 27.2 North, longitude 56.8 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected through the weekend, followed by a turn
toward the northwest and north-northwest on Monday and Monday
evening. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda
Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is anticipated, and Paulette is forecast to
become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin to affect
Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions
could begin in that area Sunday night or early Monday.

RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of
the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United
States this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 120843
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

Conventional satellite imagery shows that the cyclone's cloud
pattern has improved during the past several hours and that Paulette
maybe on the cusp of becoming a hurricane very soon. An Advanced
Technology Microwave Sounder (ATMS) overpass suggested that the
cyclone has a much less vertical tilt and deep convective banding
is developing in the south and east portions of Paulette. The
subjective and objective satellite intensity T-numbers haven't
changed from 6 hours ago, and the initial intensity is held at 60
kt.

The UW-CIMSS shear analysis reveals some decrease in the shear
magnitude and the upper wind pattern has become much more
diffluent. The ECMWF/FV3 SHIPS and the large-scale models indicate
that the shear will relax soon, and Paulette should become a
hurricane today and further strengthen to a major hurricane early
Tuesday. The SHIPS statistical-dynamical model indicates this
scenario occuring earlier, Monday evening. The official intensity
forecast is nudged slightly higher than the previous one and is
close to the the HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach intensity
model. It is also important to note that the average NHC intensity
errors are around 10-15 kt at 48-72 h, the range at which Paulette
will likely be nearest to Bermuda.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/15 kt.
A mid-tropospheric ridge/Bermuda high north of the cyclone should
continue to build across the western Atlantic and steer Paulette
west-northwestward for the next 36 hours. Afterward, a turn toward
the northwest to north-northwest with a significant increase in
forward speed is expected early Monday and Monday evening in
response to an approaching mid-latitude major shortwave trough.
The track guidance suite remains tightly clustered with just some
minor forward speed differences beyond day 3, so it's quite certain
that Paulette will move near Bermuda early Monday, though it's a
little too early to specify the exact closest approach. The NHC
track forecast is close to the previous advisory and once again is
based on the various multi-model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on
Sunday and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming
increasingly likely. A tropical storm warning and a hurricane
watch have been issued for the island.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States
through the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 26.8N 56.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 28.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 14/1800Z 33.5N 65.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 15/0600Z 35.2N 63.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 16/0600Z 38.2N 56.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 17/0600Z 41.5N 49.7W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 120842
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...
...FORECAST TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 56.1W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
and a Hurricane Watch for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 56.1 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected through the weekend, followed by a
turn toward the northwest and north-northwest on Monday and Monday
evening. The center of Paulette is forecast to move near Bermuda
Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Paulette is
forecast to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin to affect
Bermuda and the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions
could begin in that area Sunday night or early Monday.

RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of
the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United
States this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 120842
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0900 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 56.1W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 80SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE 300SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 56.1W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 55.5W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 80SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 29.2N 60.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 30.3N 62.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.8N 64.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 33.5N 65.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 35.2N 63.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 38.2N 56.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 41.5N 49.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 56.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 120544
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
200 AM AST Sat Sep 12 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TO A HURRICANE
SATURDAY...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.4N 55.5W
ABOUT 690 MI...1115 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 26.4 North, longitude 55.5 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected through the weekend, followed by a
turn toward the north on Monday. The center of Paulette is forecast
to move near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated and Paulette is
forecast to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and
the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions could begin
in that area late Sunday or early Monday.

RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of
the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United
States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts/Brown

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 120253
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Paulette remains sheared and asymmetric, with all its deep
convection north of its low-level center of circulation. Despite the
shear, ASCAT-B data that just arrived showed maximum winds near or
just over 55 kt. Since that instrument tends to under-sample the
maximum winds, the initial intensity is increased to 60 kt.

An upper-level low located to the west of Paulette is responsible
for the southerly shear currently affecting the cyclone. Global
model forecasts suggest that the shear will continue for another day
or so, and only slight strengthening is likely through that period.
By Sunday, the upper-level low will move farther southwest and the
tropical cyclone will encounter a very favorable upper-air pattern.
Paulette will likely strengthen further in response, possibly at a
fast rate. All of the intensity guidance indicates that Paulette
will be a hurricane when it nears Bermuda early Monday, and it could
approach major hurricane strength early next week. The NHC intensity
forecast has not changed since the last advisory. It is worth
mentioning that Paulette could experience a period of slow
development for the next 24 hours, followed by quick
intensification, rather than the more steady strengthening shown by
the NHC forecast. It is also important to note that the average NHC
intensity errors are around 10-15 kt at 48-72 h, the range at which
Paulette will likely be nearest to Bermuda.

Paulette has jogged slightly right of track during the past few
hours, but the overall NHC forecast track is not different from the
previous advisory. A building mid-level ridge to the north of
Paulette will likely steer the tropical storm generally
west-northwestward or northwestward for the next 2-3 days. The
cyclone is then expected to turn northeastward and accelerate in
that direction ahead of a mid-latitude trough. The model spread
remains relatively low, especially for the first few days.
Confidence is high that Paulette will move near Bermuda early
Monday, though it is still too soon to specify exactly how close it
will get. The NHC forecast is based heavily on the TVCA and HCCA
consensus aids and is not far from any of the global model forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane on
Sunday and Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming
more likely. A tropical storm watch is in effect and a hurricane
watch could be required for the island early Saturday.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 25.8N 54.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 27.1N 56.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 28.5N 58.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 29.6N 61.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 30.7N 63.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 15/0000Z 33.8N 65.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 16/0000Z 37.0N 60.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 17/0000Z 40.0N 54.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 120250
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

...PAULETTE A LITTLE STRONGER AND EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN FURTHER
BEFORE IT NEARS BERMUDA LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 54.8W
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 54.8 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion at a slightly slower
forward speed is expected for through the weekend, followed by
a turn toward the north on Monday. The center of Paulette is
forecast to move near Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110
km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is anticipated
and Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC,
and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT2.shtml.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions could begin to affect Bermuda and
the nearby waters by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions could begin
in that area late Sunday or early Monday.

RAIN: Paulette may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda through
Monday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with maximum
amounts of 6 inches possible.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of
the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United
States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 120249
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0300 UTC SAT SEP 12 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 54.8W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT.......180NE 80SE 60SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 300SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.8N 54.8W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 54.3W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 27.1N 56.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 80SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 58.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 29.6N 61.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 80SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.7N 63.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 32.1N 65.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 33.8N 65.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 37.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 40.0N 54.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.8N 54.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 KNHC/MIATCPAT2...AT 12/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 112050
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Paulette inconveniently fell in a gap between all three ASCAT
passes this morning, so we haven't gotten any better handle on the
cyclone's intensity since last evening's pass. However, Dvorak
classifications have not budged, so maintaining the initial
intensity of 55 kt seems sound. In addition, although an AMSR
microwave pass from around 17 UTC still showed the system being
sheared, it also revealed a ragged mid-level eye feature. Since
the shear is expected to abate to less than 10 kt by 48 hours,
Paulette is likely to intensify, possibly significantly so, and it
is now forecast to become a hurricane on Saturday. The
intensification trend is expected to continue through day 4, and
Paulette has the potential to be a dangerous hurricane when it
makes its closest approach to Bermuda on Monday. Paulette's
forecast peak intensity (on day 4) has been nudged up slightly,
lying near the SHIPS and HCCA guidance, but still a little below
the latest HWRF simulation.

Paulette has picked up some speed and is now moving toward the
northwest (310 degrees) at 11 kt. The track forecast reasoning
has not changed since this morning. Paulette should maintain a
motion toward the northwest or west-northwest during the next 2 to
3 days to the south of a weakening subtropical ridge. By day 3, a
longwave trough is forecast to move across the northeastern
United States, eroding the ridge eastward, and causing Paulette to
recurve sharply toward the north and northeast in the vicinity of
Bermuda on Monday. After that time, Paulette is forecast to become
embedded in the mid-latitude flow and accelerate northeastward
toward the north Atlantic. The spread in the track guidance has
continued to tighten up, which increases the confidence in the
official track forecast. The updated forecast has been shifted
slightly westward around the time that Paulette will be near
Bermuda, and it is embedded among the usually-reliable GFS, ECMWF,
and HCCA model solutions.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane during
the next couple of days and make its closest approach to the island
on Monday. A prolonged period of strong winds, storm surge, and
heavy rainfall on Bermuda beginning Sunday night is becoming more
likely, and a hurricane watch could be required for the island
tonight or early Saturday.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 24.6N 53.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 25.9N 55.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 27.5N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 28.7N 59.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 29.8N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 31.1N 64.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 14/1800Z 32.6N 65.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 15/1800Z 36.0N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 16/1800Z 39.0N 56.0W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 112049
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

...PAULETTE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS TO BERMUDA SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 53.7W
ABOUT 750 MI...1205 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette. A
hurricane watch could be required for the island tonight or early
Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 53.7 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest or west-northwest is expected through Sunday night,
followed by a sharp turn toward the north by late Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Paulette should be near Bermuda Sunday
night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to
become a hurricane Saturday or Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of
the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United
States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 112049
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
2100 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULETTE. A
HURRICANE WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR THE ISLAND TONIGHT OR EARLY
SATURDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 53.7W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 53.7W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 53.2W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.9N 55.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 20SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 70SE 60SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 27.5N 57.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.7N 59.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 70SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.8N 62.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 31.1N 64.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 32.6N 65.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 36.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 39.0N 56.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 53.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 111444
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Despite what is being analyzed as roughly 40 kt of deep-layer
southwesterly shear, Paulette's center is embedded beneath the
cirrus canopy of a strong convective burst to the north. Recent
microwave images do confirm, however, that the center remains
displaced from the convection. We have not yet received new
scatterometer data over Paulette, and since the structure has not
degraded from overnight, the initial intensity remains 55 kt. This
is in best agreement with the Dvorak estimate from TAFB.

Paulette appears to have turned toward the northwest (305/9 kt)
based on center fixes over the past 12 hours. A weakness in the
subtropical ridge is beginning to develop to the north of Paulette,
which should allow the cyclone to maintain a motion toward the
northwest or west-northwest during the next 3 days. After that
time, a longwave trough forecast to move across the northeastern
United States is expected to erode the ridge eastward, causing
Paulette to recurve sharply toward the north and northeast in the
vicinity of Bermuda on days 4 and 5. Except for some minor speed
differences, the track models agree on this general trajectory and
have less east-to-west spread during the recurvature phase than
they did yesterday. The GFS, ECMWF, HCCA, and Florida State
Superensemble aids all lie along the western side of the guidance
envelope at the time of recurvature, and as a result the new NHC
track has been nudged a little west of the previous prediction
during that period in deference to those normally reliable models.

The shear affecting Paulette is forecast to abate over the next 48
hours while the storm also moves over warmer ocean waters and into
a more unstable environment. Given the cyclone's hardiness in the
face of the ongoing shear, Paulette is unlikely to have problems
responding to the improving environment. Paulette is now forecast
to become a hurricane in 36 hours, which is supported by the latest
dynamical hurricane models, the superensemble aids, and the IVCN
intensity consensus. Continued strengthening is anticipated after
36 hours, with Paulette likely to reach a peak intensity in 4-5
days.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday.
While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity near the
island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm surge,
and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to the Greater
Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United States
into the weekend. These swells could cause life-threatening surf
and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 23.6N 52.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 24.6N 53.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 26.1N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 27.6N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 28.9N 59.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 30.2N 62.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 31.6N 64.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 34.5N 63.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 37.0N 58.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 111444
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...
...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.6N 52.2W
ABOUT 795 MI...1280 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 23.6 North, longitude 52.2 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion toward
the northwest or west-northwest with some increase in forward speed
is expected through early Monday. On the forecast track, the
center of Paulette should approach Bermuda Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Paulette is expected to
become a hurricane Saturday or Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are affecting portions of the
Leeward Islands and will continue to spread westward to portions of
the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the southeastern United
States into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 111443
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
1500 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULETTE.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 52.2W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 300SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 52.2W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 51.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.6N 53.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 70SE 60SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.1N 55.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.6N 57.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.9N 59.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.2N 62.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 31.6N 64.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 34.5N 63.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 37.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.6N 52.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 110911
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0900 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULETTE.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 51.7W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 150SE 270SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 51.7W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 51.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.9N 53.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.3N 54.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.8N 56.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.2N 58.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.5N 61.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 30.7N 63.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 33.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 36.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 51.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 110840
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

Paulette continues to experience the effects of 35-40 kt of
southwesterly vertical shear, which has caused the center to
occasionally become exposed to the south and southwest of the
primary convective bursts. Since the various satellite intensity
estimates are unchanged since the last scatterometer overpass, the
initial intensity is held at 55 kt. However, this could be a
little generous.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 300/9 kt. There is
little change to either the forecast track philosophy or the
forecast track from the last advisory. The track guidance models
remain in good agreement between a generally northwest to
west-northwestward motion over the next 3-4 days as the cyclone
is steered by the subtropical ridge to its north and northeast.
Around day 4, the cyclone is expected to recurve into the
westerlies through a break in the ridge, with this turn to the
northeast expected at about the time of closest approach to
Bermuda. The new forecast track lies close to the various
consensus models. It should be noted that there is still
sufficient spread in the track guidance such that it is too soon
to know what types of impacts Paulette could have on Bermuda early
next week.

The global models are in reasonable agreement that the shear over
Paulette should subside, although it may be another 24 h before it
subsides enough that significant strengthening can occur. After
that, conditions should be favorable for strengthening until the
system again encounters strong upper-level winds near 120 h after
recurvature. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that
Paulette will strengthen to a hurricane during this time and reach a
peak intensity in about 96 h, and the new intensity forecast has
only minor changes from the previous forecast. The new forecast is
close to, but a little weaker than the various intensity consensus
models.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday and
Tuesday. While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity
near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 23.1N 51.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 23.9N 53.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 25.3N 54.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 26.8N 56.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 28.2N 58.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 29.5N 61.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 14/0600Z 30.7N 63.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 15/0600Z 33.5N 64.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 16/0600Z 36.0N 59.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 110839
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Fri Sep 11 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND...
...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.1N 51.7W
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 51.7 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion
toward the northwest is expected for the next few days. On the
forecast track, the center of Paulette should approach Bermuda
Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Gradual
strengthening is expected to begin tonight or on Saturday, and
Paulette is forecast to become a hurricane this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions
of the Leeward Islands today and will continue to spread westward
to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, Bermuda, and the
southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 110358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 11.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 22.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2020 0 12.3N 22.4W 1010 21
1200UTC 11.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 104.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2020 0 13.6N 104.0W 1008 21
1200UTC 11.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 114.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2020 0 18.2N 114.6W 1008 16
1200UTC 11.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM RENE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 37.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2020 0 19.2N 37.2W 1003 34
1200UTC 11.09.2020 12 20.1N 39.6W 1003 33
0000UTC 12.09.2020 24 21.2N 41.5W 1004 34
1200UTC 12.09.2020 36 22.7N 43.5W 1006 33
0000UTC 13.09.2020 48 24.4N 45.0W 1008 34
1200UTC 13.09.2020 60 26.1N 46.4W 1011 33
0000UTC 14.09.2020 72 27.2N 46.6W 1013 26
1200UTC 14.09.2020 84 27.2N 46.4W 1014 25
0000UTC 15.09.2020 96 26.3N 46.9W 1013 29
1200UTC 15.09.2020 108 25.3N 49.0W 1012 29
0000UTC 16.09.2020 120 23.9N 50.9W 1012 25
1200UTC 16.09.2020 132 22.4N 53.2W 1011 24
0000UTC 17.09.2020 144 21.5N 55.5W 1011 24

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 50.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 11.09.2020 0 22.5N 50.2W 998 43
1200UTC 11.09.2020 12 23.1N 52.2W 997 41
0000UTC 12.09.2020 24 24.5N 53.6W 995 41
1200UTC 12.09.2020 36 26.4N 55.0W 994 40
0000UTC 13.09.2020 48 28.4N 56.5W 992 44
1200UTC 13.09.2020 60 29.9N 58.8W 978 59
0000UTC 14.09.2020 72 31.4N 61.2W 963 71
1200UTC 14.09.2020 84 33.4N 63.1W 961 72
0000UTC 15.09.2020 96 35.5N 63.0W 948 75
1200UTC 15.09.2020 108 37.3N 59.3W 943 84
0000UTC 16.09.2020 120 39.1N 53.0W 944 99
1200UTC 16.09.2020 132 39.8N 47.2W 960 84
0000UTC 17.09.2020 144 40.3N 41.7W 965 72

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 11.1N 146.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2020 84 11.1N 146.0W 1007 25
0000UTC 15.09.2020 96 10.3N 147.2W 1007 29
1200UTC 15.09.2020 108 10.2N 148.3W 1007 28
0000UTC 16.09.2020 120 10.6N 149.3W 1006 29
1200UTC 16.09.2020 132 11.5N 150.7W 1006 30
0000UTC 17.09.2020 144 12.5N 152.2W 1005 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 19.4N 33.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2020 96 20.0N 33.5W 1009 37
1200UTC 15.09.2020 108 21.4N 35.4W 1007 39
0000UTC 16.09.2020 120 23.0N 36.8W 1008 41
1200UTC 16.09.2020 132 25.3N 38.7W 1008 38
0000UTC 17.09.2020 144 27.4N 40.8W 1009 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 18.8N 121.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2020 96 18.8N 121.6W 1004 26
1200UTC 15.09.2020 108 19.4N 123.3W 1006 24
0000UTC 16.09.2020 120 20.0N 125.1W 1007 24
1200UTC 16.09.2020 132 20.0N 126.0W 1008 23
0000UTC 17.09.2020 144 20.4N 127.1W 1008 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110358

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 110358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 22.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2020 12.3N 22.4W WEAK
12UTC 11.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.6N 104.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP922020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2020 13.6N 104.0W WEAK
12UTC 11.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91E ANALYSED POSITION : 18.2N 114.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP912020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2020 18.2N 114.6W WEAK
12UTC 11.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM RENE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 37.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2020 19.2N 37.2W WEAK
12UTC 11.09.2020 20.1N 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2020 21.2N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2020 22.7N 43.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2020 24.4N 45.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2020 26.1N 46.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2020 27.2N 46.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 27.2N 46.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 26.3N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 25.3N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 23.9N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 22.4N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2020 21.5N 55.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 50.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.09.2020 22.5N 50.2W MODERATE
12UTC 11.09.2020 23.1N 52.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2020 24.5N 53.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2020 26.4N 55.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2020 28.4N 56.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2020 29.9N 58.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 14.09.2020 31.4N 61.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 14.09.2020 33.4N 63.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 35.5N 63.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.09.2020 37.3N 59.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2020 39.1N 53.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 39.8N 47.2W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 17.09.2020 40.3N 41.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 11.1N 146.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2020 11.1N 146.0W WEAK
00UTC 15.09.2020 10.3N 147.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 10.2N 148.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 10.6N 149.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 11.5N 150.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2020 12.5N 152.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 19.4N 33.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2020 20.0N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 21.4N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 23.0N 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 25.3N 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2020 27.4N 40.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 18.8N 121.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2020 18.8N 121.6W WEAK
12UTC 15.09.2020 19.4N 123.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 20.0N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2020 20.0N 126.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2020 20.4N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110358

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 110251
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

Paulette has been fighting off intense vertical wind shear, which is
analyzed by UW-CIMSS to be on the order of 35-40 kt out of the
southwest. Deep convection with cold cloud tops of -70 to -80
degrees C have persisted near and to the northeast of the center
throughout the evening. A late arriving ASCAT overpass revealed that
Paulette is stronger than previously analyzed, with believable wind
vectors of 50-55 kt in the northeastern quadrant. There were some
values even higher than these. However, the ASCAT ambiguities and
satellite imagery suggest most of those are either rain contaminated
or too close to the edge of the ASCAT pass to be trustworthy.
Nonetheless, the other values indicate that the initial intensity is
now at least 55 kt.

The SHIPS guidance suggests that the current shear over Paulette
will begin to gradually decrease tomorrow and continue to decrease
into the weekend. By late Saturday the guidance indicates the shear
could fall to 10 kt or less. By that time, the cyclone is forecast
to be traversing over waters with SSTs near 29 C. The only negative
environmental factor could be some dry air in the vicinity of the
system. However that same dry air has not seemed to have that much
of an effect on Paulette as of late. With shear expected to remain
fairly strong the next 24 h, no strengthening is anticipated during
that time. After 24 h, Paulette should gradually intensify into
early next week. The NHC intensity forecast for this advisory has
been increased across the board. In the near term this change is due
to the adjusted initial intensity. Beyond 24 h, the latest NHC
forecast is close to a blend of the multi-model consensus values,
including the HFIP corrected consensus and the Florida State
Superensemble.

Paulette is now moving northwest, or 305/09 kt. There is no change
to the forecast track reasoning from the previous advisory. The
forecast models are in good agreement between a generally northwest
to west-northwestward motion over the next 3-4 days as the cyclone
is steered around a subtropical ridge to its north. Around day 4,
about the same time the system would be making its closest approach
to Bermuda, a turn to the northeast is expected as the system
rounds the western periphery of the ridge. The latest NHC track
forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is near the
tracks of the various consensus aids. It should be noted that there
is sufficient spread in the track guidance such that it is too soon
to know what types of impacts Paulette could have on Bermuda early
next week.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday and
Tuesday. While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity
near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 22.7N 50.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 23.4N 52.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 24.6N 54.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 26.1N 55.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 27.6N 57.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 28.9N 59.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 30.0N 62.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 15/0000Z 32.6N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 16/0000Z 35.0N 62.5W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 110250
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

...PAULETTE FOUND TO BE STRONGER AND IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE THIS WEEKEND...
...SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING RIP CURRENT THREAT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 50.9W
ABOUT 850 MI...1365 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1075 MI...1735 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 50.9 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Recently received satellite wind data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected through Friday. Gradual
strengthening is expected to begin Friday night, and Paulette is
forecast to become a hurricane this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb (29.27 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT2 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions
of the Leeward Islands tonight and Friday and will continue
to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 110249
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0300 UTC FRI SEP 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULETTE.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 991 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 150SE 240SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 50.9W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 50.4W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.4N 52.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 24.6N 54.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 26.1N 55.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 27.6N 57.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.9N 59.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 30.0N 62.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 60SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 32.6N 65.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 35.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 50.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 102034
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

Continuous bursts of deep convection have been ongoing to the north
and northeast of Paulette's center of circulation, with the cyclone
being affected by nearly 40 kt of deep-layer southwesterly shear.
The highest intensity estimates are Dvorak classifications of
T3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB, and that value remains the initial
intensity. The shear should reach its peak magnitude this evening,
which is likely to cause Paulette to weaken slightly during the
next 24 hours. However, gradual re-strengthening is forecast to
begin in about 36 hours, and the rate of intensification is expected
to increase in 2 to 3 days when the shear could fall to 10 kt or
less, along with a more unstable atmosphere and warmer sea surface
temperatures. Paulette is now forecast to become a hurricane by day
3 and continue to intensify through the end of the forecast period.
As was advertised in the previous forecast package, the new NHC
forecast intensities have been bumped up on days 3 through 5 and
now lie near or just below the IVCN intensity consensus and the
HCCA corrected consensus aid.

Paulette's heading over the past 6-12 hours has been toward the
west-northwest, or 300/8 kt. The cyclone's trajectory is expected
to oscillate between northwest and west-northwest for the next 4
days, being dictated by the strength of the subtropical ridge to
the north and the depth of the steering flow depending on
Paulette's intensity. The updated NHC track forecast during this
period has been nudged a bit to the north, mostly to account for an
adjustment of the initial position. The model guidance all agree
that Paulette should turn northward around the western side of a
central Atlantic high pressure area by day 5, with the expected
hurricane likely to make a tight recurvature near Bermuda. There
remains some uncertainty on exactly where that turn will occur, but
for now the NHC forecast lies between the tighter-turning ECMWF and
HCCA models and the more gradually-turning GFS and HWRF models.


Key Messages:

1. Paulette is expected to approach Bermuda as a hurricane this
weekend and make its closest approach to the island on Monday and
Tuesday. While the exact details of Paulette's track and intensity
near the island are not yet known, the risk of strong winds, storm
surge, and heavy rainfall on Bermuda continues to increase.

2. Swells produced by Paulette are expected to affect portions of
the Leeward Islands, the Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda,
and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These swells
could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 22.1N 50.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 22.5N 51.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 23.6N 53.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 25.0N 55.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 26.6N 56.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 28.0N 58.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 29.2N 61.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 14/1800Z 31.5N 65.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 15/1800Z 34.5N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 102033
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO APPROACH BERMUDA AS A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT
WEEK...
...OCEAN SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 50.1W
ABOUT 885 MI...1425 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1145 MI...1840 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of Paulette.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 50.1 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight weakening is expected during the next day or so, but
Paulette is then forecast to restrengthen by Saturday. Paulette
is expected to become a hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Paulette can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT2 KNHC.

SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions
of the Leeward Islands tonight and Friday and will continue
to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 102033
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
2100 UTC THU SEP 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF PAULETTE.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 50.1W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 210SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 50.1W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 49.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 22.5N 51.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 50SE 30SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 23.6N 53.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 25.0N 55.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 26.6N 56.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 28.0N 58.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 29.2N 61.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 31.5N 65.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 34.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.1N 50.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 101600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 10.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 30.1N 77.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2020 0 30.1N 77.0W 1018 19
0000UTC 11.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM RENE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 35.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2020 0 18.6N 35.6W 1005 33
0000UTC 11.09.2020 12 19.5N 37.0W 1004 32
1200UTC 11.09.2020 24 20.5N 39.4W 1004 31
0000UTC 12.09.2020 36 21.6N 41.4W 1004 34
1200UTC 12.09.2020 48 23.2N 43.5W 1007 30
0000UTC 13.09.2020 60 25.2N 45.0W 1009 34
1200UTC 13.09.2020 72 27.2N 46.1W 1011 31
0000UTC 14.09.2020 84 28.4N 45.5W 1012 29
1200UTC 14.09.2020 96 28.3N 45.3W 1012 30
0000UTC 15.09.2020 108 27.5N 46.6W 1012 30
1200UTC 15.09.2020 120 27.3N 49.4W 1012 29
0000UTC 16.09.2020 132 27.4N 52.1W 1012 29
1200UTC 16.09.2020 144 27.5N 54.6W 1012 27

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 21.4N 48.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2020 0 21.4N 48.9W 1000 42
0000UTC 11.09.2020 12 22.0N 50.3W 999 41
1200UTC 11.09.2020 24 23.0N 52.0W 998 40
0000UTC 12.09.2020 36 24.1N 53.4W 997 39
1200UTC 12.09.2020 48 25.9N 54.8W 996 38
0000UTC 13.09.2020 60 27.8N 56.0W 995 40
1200UTC 13.09.2020 72 29.6N 57.9W 995 45
0000UTC 14.09.2020 84 31.1N 60.3W 986 56
1200UTC 14.09.2020 96 33.2N 62.8W 966 66
0000UTC 15.09.2020 108 35.1N 63.5W 953 72
1200UTC 15.09.2020 120 36.9N 61.1W 952 79
0000UTC 16.09.2020 132 39.1N 55.6W 948 88
1200UTC 16.09.2020 144 40.8N 46.8W 965 78

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 10.3N 148.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2020 108 10.4N 148.9W 1007 27
1200UTC 15.09.2020 120 10.3N 150.7W 1008 28
0000UTC 16.09.2020 132 10.5N 152.3W 1007 30
1200UTC 16.09.2020 144 11.1N 153.9W 1008 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 29.5N 88.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2020 108 29.8N 89.0W 1009 26
1200UTC 15.09.2020 120 30.3N 90.3W 1011 25
0000UTC 16.09.2020 132 30.6N 91.2W 1010 22
1200UTC 16.09.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 16.9N 40.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2020 108 16.9N 40.8W 1007 34
1200UTC 15.09.2020 120 18.1N 42.9W 1005 36
0000UTC 16.09.2020 132 19.8N 44.2W 1003 40
1200UTC 16.09.2020 144 21.3N 45.4W 999 46


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101600

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 101438
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

The highest winds in a recent scatterometer pass have decreased a
little since last evening, and they remain embedded within deep
convection which is displaced to the north of the center of
circulation. Paulette's intensity is estimated to have decreased
to 45 kt based on this ASCAT pass and Dvorak CI numbers of 3.0/45
kt from both TAFB and SAB.

The sheared convection has been tugging Paulette's center northward
at times, causing wobbles in the estimated longer-term
west-northwestward motion of 295/9 kt. For the next 4 days or so,
fluctuations in the strength of the subtropical ridge to the north
of Paulette will cause the cyclone's trajectory to vary between
west-northwest and northwest, with a peak in forward speed around
day 3. At the end of the forecast period, a mid-latitude trough is
expected to move across the northeastern United States, with a
mid-tropospheric high becoming established over the central
Atlantic. This should allow Paulette to begin to recurve over the
western Atlantic, turning northward by day 5. The only notable
change in the track guidance on this cycle was a slight westward
shift among some of the models on days 4 and 5, and the NHC track
forecast follows suit, lying close to the HFIP Corrected Consensus
(HCCA) aid.

Southwesterly shear has increased over the cyclone as expected, with
the latest UW-CIMSS analysis now between 35 and 40 kt. SHIPS
diagnoses suggest that the shear over Paulette should peak in about
12 hours, thus a little more weakening is anticipated over the next
day or so. The shear is then forecast to gradually abate, and both
the GFS and ECMWF versions of the SHIPS guidance show the shear
magnitudes decreasing to 10 kt or less in 3-4 days. This more
favorable environment, combined with a more unstable air mass and
sea surface temperatures exceeding 29 degrees Celsius, are expected
to allow Paulette to restrengthen and become a hurricane as it
moves in the vicinity of Bermuda. The new NHC intensity forecast
has been raised a bit between days 2 and 4 compared to the previous
prediction, although it still lies below the intensity consensus,
IVCN, and the HCCA solutions. Therefore, additional upward
adjustments to the forecast intensity may be required later today.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 21.5N 49.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 21.8N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 22.6N 52.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 23.8N 54.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 25.4N 56.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 26.9N 58.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 14/1200Z 30.0N 65.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 15/1200Z 32.5N 65.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 101437
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

...PAULETTE A LITTLE WEAKER BUT EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS...
...OCEAN SWELLS FORECAST TO SPREAD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 49.1W
ABOUT 935 MI...1510 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1220 MI...1960 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 49.1 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion with some increase in
forward speed is expected through the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some additional slight weakening is expected
during the next day or so, but Paulette is then forecast to
restrengthen by Saturday. Paulette could become a hurricane by
Sunday or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions
of the Leeward Islands tonight and Friday and will continue
to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas,
Bermuda, and the southeastern United States into the weekend. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 101437
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
1500 UTC THU SEP 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 49.1W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 70SE 60SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 120SE 210SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 49.1W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 48.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.8N 50.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 22.6N 52.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 23.8N 54.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 25.4N 56.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 26.9N 58.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 28.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 50SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 32.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 49.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 100837
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

Although Paulette's center of circulation has separated farther
south from the cloud mass during the past several hours, the
cyclone is still producing an area of deep convection consisting of
-79C cold cloud tops. Earlier scatterometer data indicated surface
winds of 45-50 kt in this region of coldest cloud tops, so it's
reasonable to think that those winds are still present. Therefore,
the initial intensity is held at 50 kt for this advisory.

Both the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity models show the shear
magnitude increasing to 35-40 kt today. As a result, Paulette is
expected to begin weakening by this evening. Over the weekend,
however, the shear is forecast to decrease gradually and shift from
the southeast and become a bit more diffluent, which should allow
for reintensification. Several of the skilled intensity guidance,
including the aforementioned SHIPS, and the consensus models, HCCA
and IVCN, now show Paulette as a hurricane in 4 days, or sooner
(COAMPS-TC). The official intensity forecast is once again
adjusted upward, and lies between the HCCA (a little higher) and
the Decay SHIPS intensity guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
290/9 kt and Paulette should continue in this general motion
through Friday as a mid-tropospheric ridge temporarily builds over
the central Atlantic in response to a mid- to upper-level trough,
extending southwestward from the Azores Islands, weakening and
lifting northeastward. By Saturday morning, a break in the
aforementioned ridge develops due to a combination of mid- to
upper-level low situated to the northwest of the cyclone and a
mid-latitude shortwave trough moving off of the northeast U.S.
This change in the synoptic steering pattern should cause the
tropical cyclone to turn toward the northwest with an increase in
forward speed. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous
advisory, but a little faster beyond 48 hours, and is shifted to
the left, closer to the HCCA and TVCN consensus models at days 4
and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 20.9N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 21.3N 50.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 21.8N 52.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 22.8N 54.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 24.1N 55.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 25.7N 57.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 27.1N 59.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 14/0600Z 29.7N 63.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 15/0600Z 32.0N 64.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 100836
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Thu Sep 10 2020

...PAULETTE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON...
...RESTRENGTHENING FORECAST OVER THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 49.0W
ABOUT 935 MI...1505 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1250 MI...2015 KM SE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 49.0 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A
northwestward motion should begin Friday evening and continue into
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Restrengthening is expected to commence over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions
of the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will continue
to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas,
and Bermuda into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 100835
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0900 UTC THU SEP 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 49.0W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 60SE 60SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 210SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 49.0W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 48.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.3N 50.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 50SE 30SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.8N 52.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 40SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.8N 54.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.1N 55.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 25.7N 57.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 20SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 27.1N 59.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 29.7N 63.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 32.0N 64.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 49.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 100358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 10.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 75.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2020 0 31.6N 75.2W 1016 19
1200UTC 10.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM RENE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 33.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2020 0 18.1N 33.5W 1007 31
1200UTC 10.09.2020 12 18.6N 35.6W 1006 30
0000UTC 11.09.2020 24 19.1N 37.2W 1004 32
1200UTC 11.09.2020 36 19.8N 39.4W 1002 34
0000UTC 12.09.2020 48 21.0N 41.6W 1000 41
1200UTC 12.09.2020 60 22.7N 43.9W 1003 36
0000UTC 13.09.2020 72 24.8N 45.5W 1006 39
1200UTC 13.09.2020 84 27.2N 46.8W 1009 38
0000UTC 14.09.2020 96 28.9N 46.9W 1010 37
1200UTC 14.09.2020 108 30.0N 47.3W 1011 39
0000UTC 15.09.2020 120 31.1N 48.5W 1012 36
1200UTC 15.09.2020 132 33.5N 49.7W 1012 30
0000UTC 16.09.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 47.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2020 0 20.6N 47.4W 1001 39
1200UTC 10.09.2020 12 21.4N 49.0W 1001 42
0000UTC 11.09.2020 24 21.7N 50.2W 1000 40
1200UTC 11.09.2020 36 22.3N 51.6W 1000 38
0000UTC 12.09.2020 48 23.1N 52.8W 999 36
1200UTC 12.09.2020 60 24.7N 54.1W 1000 34
0000UTC 13.09.2020 72 26.2N 55.3W 1000 34
1200UTC 13.09.2020 84 27.7N 56.7W 1001 33
0000UTC 14.09.2020 96 28.7N 57.7W 1002 37
1200UTC 14.09.2020 108 30.2N 58.8W 1002 36
0000UTC 15.09.2020 120 31.3N 59.0W 1000 39
1200UTC 15.09.2020 132 33.3N 57.4W 998 40
0000UTC 16.09.2020 144 35.3N 55.3W 990 48

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.7N 29.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2020 60 13.7N 29.6W 1005 31
0000UTC 13.09.2020 72 14.4N 32.8W 1005 31
1200UTC 13.09.2020 84 14.8N 35.4W 1004 33
0000UTC 14.09.2020 96 15.6N 37.7W 1004 35
1200UTC 14.09.2020 108 15.8N 40.5W 1003 39
0000UTC 15.09.2020 120 16.6N 42.9W 1000 41
1200UTC 15.09.2020 132 17.5N 45.2W 995 45
0000UTC 16.09.2020 144 18.3N 47.6W 989 51

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 10.7N 145.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2020 108 10.3N 145.7W 1008 25
0000UTC 15.09.2020 120 10.0N 146.6W 1007 25
1200UTC 15.09.2020 132 9.9N 147.6W 1007 28
0000UTC 16.09.2020 144 10.2N 148.6W 1006 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 17.8N 121.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2020 108 18.3N 123.1W 1004 27
0000UTC 15.09.2020 120 18.7N 124.7W 1004 27
1200UTC 15.09.2020 132 19.6N 126.1W 1005 29
0000UTC 16.09.2020 144 20.3N 127.2W 1005 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100358

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 100358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.6N 75.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.09.2020 31.6N 75.2W WEAK
12UTC 10.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM RENE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 33.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.09.2020 18.1N 33.5W WEAK
12UTC 10.09.2020 18.6N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2020 19.1N 37.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2020 19.8N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2020 21.0N 41.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2020 22.7N 43.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2020 24.8N 45.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2020 27.2N 46.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2020 28.9N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 30.0N 47.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 31.1N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 33.5N 49.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 20.6N 47.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.09.2020 20.6N 47.4W WEAK
12UTC 10.09.2020 21.4N 49.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2020 21.7N 50.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2020 22.3N 51.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2020 23.1N 52.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2020 24.7N 54.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2020 26.2N 55.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2020 27.7N 56.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2020 28.7N 57.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 30.2N 58.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 31.3N 59.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 33.3N 57.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 35.3N 55.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 13.7N 29.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.09.2020 13.7N 29.6W WEAK
00UTC 13.09.2020 14.4N 32.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2020 14.8N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2020 15.6N 37.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 15.8N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 16.6N 42.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 17.5N 45.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2020 18.3N 47.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 10.7N 145.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2020 10.3N 145.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 10.0N 146.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 9.9N 147.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 10.2N 148.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 17.8N 121.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2020 18.3N 123.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2020 18.7N 124.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2020 19.6N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2020 20.3N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100358

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 100233
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

Paulette remains a sheared tropical cyclone with the low-level
center southwest of a large area of deep convection. Recent
scatterometer data showed peak winds of 45-50 kt, so 50 kt is used
as the initial wind speed, which happens to be quite similar to a
blend of the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates. Paulette should
begin to weaken tomorrow and continue on a downward trend for 2-3
days as strong shear impacts the cyclone. No change has been made
to the forecast through Saturday. Thereafter, the storm is likely to
move into a lower-shear environment on the northeastern side of a
mid/upper-level low, with SSTs rising to about 29C. There is better
agreement among the models tonight that Paulette will survive the
shear and be able to take advantage of that favorable environment.
In fact, almost all of the most reliable guidance, save LGEM/SHIPS,
show the storm becoming a hurricane by 120 hours, and the global
models are trending in that direction. The new NHC forecast is
raised from the previous one, near the model consensus, but isn't
quite as high as the regional hurricane models.

The storm is moving at about the same motion as before (295/9 kt).
Paulette should turn westward tomorrow as it weakens and encounters
stronger low/mid-level ridging. A weakness in the ridge develops by
the weekend due to the aforementioned mid/upper-level low, which
should cause the tropical cyclone to turn and move faster toward
the northwest. The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one, lying on the western side of the guidance after
placing heavier weight on the global models and corrected-consensus
aids than on the regional hurricane guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 20.9N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 21.3N 49.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 21.4N 51.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 21.9N 53.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 22.8N 54.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 24.1N 55.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 25.8N 57.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 14/0000Z 29.0N 62.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 15/0000Z 31.0N 65.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 100233
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

...PAULETTE MAINTAINING STRENGTH FOR NOW BUT FORECAST TO WEAKEN
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 48.1W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM ENE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 48.1 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion
toward the west or west-northwest is expected through Friday. A
northwestward motion should begin Friday night and continue into
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.
However, Paulette could restrengthen early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions
of the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will continue
to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas,
and Bermuda into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 100232
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0300 UTC THU SEP 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 48.1W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 60SE 60SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 48.1W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 47.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 21.3N 49.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 50SE 30SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.4N 51.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 40SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.9N 53.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.8N 54.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 24.1N 55.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 25.8N 57.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 29.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 31.0N 65.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.9N 48.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 092031
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

Paulette's satellite presentation has not changed since this
morning, with the center exposed just to the south of the deepest
convection. Between this morning's ASCAT pass and the most recent
satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB, which are unchanged at
T3.0 and T3.5, respectively, the maximum wind estimate remains 50
kt. Paulette continues to move into an area of stronger
southwesterly shear, which is now estimated to be 25-30 kt, and
this shear is likely to increase further to 30-35 kt within the
next 24 hours. As a result, Paulette is expected to begin
weakening by Thursday, and the NHC forecast is embedded among the
tightly clustered intensity guidance during the first 2-3 days.
The shear is expected to relax gradually from 48 hours and beyond
and turn out of the southeast, which should allow for some
restrengthening on days 3 through 5 when shear magnitudes could go
as low as 10 kt. The HWRF and COAMPS-TC models in particular take
full advantage of this environment and bring Paulette to hurricane
intensity by day 4. The updated NHC intensity forecast is not
nearly this aggressive, but it does indicate a little more
strengthening at the end of the forecast period than has been shown
in previous forecasts, lying closest to the statistical-dynamical
guidance. Model environmental trends will be monitored, and
additional intensity adjustments at the end of the forecast period
will be made accordingly in subsequent forecasts.

Paulette remains on a west-northwestward course (295/9 kt), located
to the south of low- to mid-level ridging which extends across the
central and western Atlantic. The track models suggest that when
the cyclone weakens in a day or two, lower-level winds could steer
the cyclone westward for a short time. However, a combination of
the ridge weakening and Paulette's expected re-strengthening should
cause the cyclone to turn northwestward in 2-3 days and maintain
that trajectory through the end of the forecast period. The only
significant change from the previous forecast is that the 5-day
forecast point has been shifted westward, with the GFS, ECMWF,
HWRF, and HCCA models all lying on the left side of the guidance
envelope by that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 20.5N 47.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 20.9N 48.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 21.4N 50.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 21.6N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 22.3N 54.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 23.3N 55.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 24.8N 56.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 28.0N 60.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 14/1800Z 30.5N 64.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 092030
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

...PAULETTE FORECAST TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO BUT COULD
THEN RESTRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 47.4W
ABOUT 1035 MI...1665 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 47.4 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A motion
toward the west or west-northwest is expected through Friday. A
northwestward motion should begin Friday night and continue into
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.
However, Paulette could restrengthen early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions
of the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will continue
to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas,
and Bermuda into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 092029
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
2100 UTC WED SEP 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 47.4W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
34 KT.......210NE 90SE 60SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 47.4W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 46.9W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.9N 48.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 60SE 30SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.4N 50.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 40SE 0SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.6N 52.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 30SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.3N 54.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 30SE 0SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 23.3N 55.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 24.8N 56.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 28.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 30.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 47.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 091459
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

Morning visible satellite images show that Paulette's center is
located beneath a thin veil of cirrus and displaced to the south of
the deep convection. Based on a blend of Dvorak estimates from
TAFB and SAB, and a recent ASCAT pass which showed an area of
45-50 kt winds northwest of the center, the initial intensity
remains 50 kt. A large upper-level trough is located to the
northwest of Paulette, and this feature is producing 20-30 kt of
south-southwesterly shear over the cyclone. The shear is forecast
to increase well over 30 kt during the next day or two as Paulette
gets closer to the upper-level disturbance, which should cause the
cyclone's maximum winds to gradually decrease through day 3. The
shear is forecast to abate somewhat and back around from the
southeast by days 4 and 5, which could allow Paulette to
restrengthen a little bit over the subtropical Atlantic at that
time. The new NHC intensity forecast is identical to the previous
one and is generally close to the IVCN intensity consensus and the
HCCA corrected consensus.

Although Paulette has been hopscotching around a bit, likely being
influenced by the sheared convection, the 12-hour motion is now
toward the west-northwest (290/8 kt). Subtropical ridging to the
north of Paulette is forecast to keep the cyclone on a westward or
west-northwestward trajectory for the next 48 hours. After that
time, the ridge is likely to weaken a bit, which should allow
Paulette to move toward the northwest with some increase in forward
speed on days 3 though 5. There is a typical amount of spread
among the track models for this forecast, and while they all agree
on the general future trajectory, there are some speed differences.
In particular, the UKMET and HWRF start out much slower than the
other models, and the ECWMF is much faster than the rest of the
guidance by days 4 and 5. Relying on continuity and the model
consensus aids, the updated NHC track forecast has been shifted
very little from the previous prediction.

The initial and forecast tropical-storm-force wind radii have been
expanded based on the recent scatterometer data.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 20.0N 46.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 20.3N 48.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 20.7N 49.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 20.9N 51.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 21.3N 53.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 22.2N 54.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 23.5N 55.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 27.0N 59.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 30.0N 62.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 091459
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

...PAULETTE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.0N 46.5W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 46.5 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A general
westward or west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday,
followed by a turn toward the northwest Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.


Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Paulette are expected to reach portions
of the Leeward Islands Thursday night and Friday and will continue
to spread westward to portions of the Greater Antilles, Bahamas,
and Bermuda into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 091458
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
1500 UTC WED SEP 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 46.5W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......210NE 90SE 60SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 60SE 105SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 46.5W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 46.1W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.3N 48.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...190NE 70SE 40SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.7N 49.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.9N 51.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.3N 53.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 22.2N 54.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 30SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 23.5N 55.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 40SE 0SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 27.0N 59.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 30.0N 62.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 46.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 090849
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

...SHEARED PAULETTE JOGS TO THE WEST...
...EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 45.6W
ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 45.6 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slightly faster
motion toward the west-northwest is expected later today, followed
by a temporary westward motion on Thursday. A turn back toward the
west-northwest is expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, with gradual weakening
anticipated on Thursday and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 090842
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

The 20-30 kt of southwesterly shear continues to have a significant
impact on Paulette's inner core. A 0615 UTC Global Precipitation
Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager overpass showed a severely
sheared tropical cyclone with the exposed surface circulation
displaced to the south of the cloud canopy. Although the
objective ADT and an earlier SATCON analysis yield 45 kt, The
initial intensity is held at a generous 50 kt for this advisory in
deference to last night's scatterometer pass showing a few 50 kt
winds.

In addition to the moderate, persistent shear, the RAMMB/CIRA
Average Vertical Instability parameter time series analysis
revealed a higher than normal (1995-2010) statically stable
environment, another potential inhibiting factor. This was further
supported by the statistical-dynamical intensity models showing
a rather parched mid-troposphere (less than 58%). Therefore,
slow weakening of Paulette is forecast during the next few days.
Toward the end of the period, the ECMWF and FV3 SHIPS intensity
models continue to indicate a more southerly, diffluent pattern
which should aid in some restrengthening, and this is indicated in
the NHC forecast.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 280/7 kt.
Paulette should turn west-northwestward later today and westward on
Thursday around the southwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge
to the northeast of the cyclone. A turn northwestward is predicted
on Saturday as Paulette moves further into a growing weakness in
the ridge over the western Atlantic. The official forecast is an
update of the previous one through 72 hrs, then is shifted to the
left through day 5 to lies between the HCCA consensus and the
the HFIP/NUOPC Project's 5EMN 133 member multi-model ensemble mean.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 19.2N 45.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 19.7N 46.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 20.8N 52.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 22.7N 54.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 25.9N 58.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 28.7N 61.4W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 090841
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Wed Sep 09 2020

...SHEARED PAULETTE JOGS TO THE WEST...
...EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD LATER TODAY..


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 45.6W
ABOUT 1440 MI...2315 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1145 MI...1845 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 45.6 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slightly faster
motion toward the west-northwest is expected later today, followed
by a temporary westward motion on Thursday. A turn back toward the
west-northwest is expected on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast today, with gradual weakening
anticipated on Thursday and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 090841
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0900 UTC WED SEP 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.6W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 60SE 30SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 75SE 105SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.6W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 45.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.7N 46.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 30SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 60SE 30SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.8N 52.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.7N 54.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 25.9N 58.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 28.7N 61.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 45.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 090251
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

Microwave and satellite data suggest that vertical shear is
weakening Paulette. The center is near the southern side of a large
thunderstorm cluster, with the bulk of deep convection in the
northeastern quadrant of the cyclone. A recent ASCAT-B pass showed
maximum winds of 45-50 kt, a little lower than the other satellite
estimates, and 50 kt is chosen as the initial wind speed.

With Paulette already on a weakening trend, it seems that the window
for significant strengthening has closed. More likely, a gradual
decay of the storm is anticipated due to moderate or strong shear
during the next few days. This shear could abate by the end of the
forecast period due to Paulette moving around the northeastern side
of a large mid-to-upper level low, which is a common position for
the re-intensification of a tropical cyclone after encountering the
mid-oceanic trough. The new forecast is lowered from the previous
one for the first few days and then raised slightly at the longer
ranges. This is consistent with a blend of the intensity model
consensus, leaning toward the NOAA corrected-consensus guidance at
the end.

The storm is moving northwestward at about 8 kt. There has been
some convergence of the model guidance during the next few days as
Paulette should move west-northwestward tomorrow and westward on
Thursday around a mid-level ridge. Thus, little change has been
made from the previous forecast during the first 48-72h. Afterwards,
the forecast is shifted to the north by 45-60 n mi under the
assumption that Paulette stays coherent as a tropical cyclone and
takes a turn to the northwest this weekend on the eastern flank of
the aforementioned mid-to-upper level low. The new track forecast
is northeast of the model consensus and places less emphasis on
models, like the 12Z ECMWF, which show Paulette staying weaker and
missing the full influence of the low.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 19.2N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 19.8N 46.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 20.2N 48.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 20.6N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 20.8N 51.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 21.1N 52.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 21.9N 53.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 24.4N 55.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 27.5N 59.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 090250
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

...PAULETTE IS A LITTLE WEAKER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 45.0W
ABOUT 1400 MI...2250 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1185 MI...1905 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 45.0 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slightly faster
motion toward the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday, a
westward motion is forecast on Thursday, followed by a turn back
toward the west-northwest or northwest by late Friday.

Satellite-derived data indicate that maximum sustained winds have
decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little
change in strength is forecast tomorrow, with slow weakening
anticipated on Thursday and Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 090250
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0300 UTC WED SEP 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.0W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......150NE 60SE 30SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 60SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 45.0W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 44.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.8N 46.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 30SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.2N 48.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 60SE 30SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.6N 50.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.8N 51.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.1N 52.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.9N 53.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 24.4N 55.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 27.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 45.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 082030
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

Shear has started to take a toll on Paulette's structure. Convection
is again primarily limited to the northeast quadrant with little
signs of banding. It is certainly possible that convection will
expand again tonight when Paulette is farther removed from the
diurnal convective minimum, but for the moment it does not look like
further intensification is imminent. Dvorak classifications from
TAFB and SAB are still T-3.5/55 kt, and that is the basis for the
intensity estimate.

If convection does increase tonight, Paulette will have a brief
window for further strengthening before an expected increase in
southerly shear on Wednesday. At a minimum, Paulette's intensity
should then level off, and it will probably begin to weaken. Later
this week or over the weekend Paulette will have an opportunity to
restrengthen, depending on its interaction with an upper-level low
expected to be just west of the cyclone. The spread in the guidance
at that point is very high ranging from near dissipation to a
category 2 hurricane. The NHC intensity forecast is mostly unchanged
for now, but Paulette could certainly be much stronger or weaker
over the weekend than currently forecast.

There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning, and
therefore little change to the track forecast itself. Paulette
should gradually turn westward by late Wednesday and then back
toward the northwest later this week as a ridge to its north builds
and weakens over the next several days. The model spread is high,
since there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in exactly how far
west Paulette will make it before it turns northwestward. Confidence
in the forecast beyond 72 h remains low. The NHC forecast track is
based heavily on the HFIP Corrected Consensus (HCCA).


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 18.7N 44.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 19.2N 45.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 19.9N 47.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 20.7N 52.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 23.5N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 26.5N 59.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 082030
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

...PAULETTE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 44.3W
ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1230 MI...1980 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 44.3 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slightly faster
motion toward the west-northwest or northwest is expected for the
next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight. Gradual
weakening is expected to begin on Wednesday and should continue
for a couple days thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 082029
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
2100 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 44.3W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 30SE 30SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 44.3W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 44.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.2N 45.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.9N 47.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.3N 49.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.5N 50.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 80SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.7N 52.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.4N 53.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.5N 55.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 26.5N 59.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 44.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 081558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 08.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 69.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2020 0 29.7N 69.6W 1011 21
0000UTC 09.09.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM RENE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 25.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2020 0 16.6N 25.8W 1004 29
0000UTC 09.09.2020 12 16.9N 28.3W 1005 26
1200UTC 09.09.2020 24 17.5N 31.2W 1006 28
0000UTC 10.09.2020 36 18.6N 33.8W 1006 32
1200UTC 10.09.2020 48 19.5N 36.3W 1002 36
0000UTC 11.09.2020 60 20.7N 38.0W 999 40
1200UTC 11.09.2020 72 22.4N 39.4W 996 44
0000UTC 12.09.2020 84 24.4N 40.5W 998 47
1200UTC 12.09.2020 96 26.5N 41.9W 1003 40
0000UTC 13.09.2020 108 28.7N 42.7W 1006 38
1200UTC 13.09.2020 120 30.3N 43.1W 1007 37
0000UTC 14.09.2020 132 31.1N 42.6W 1007 40
1200UTC 14.09.2020 144 31.5N 41.7W 1007 39

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 43.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2020 0 18.1N 43.4W 1001 33
0000UTC 09.09.2020 12 18.6N 44.7W 1001 36
1200UTC 09.09.2020 24 19.5N 46.1W 1003 39
0000UTC 10.09.2020 36 20.2N 47.6W 1004 42
1200UTC 10.09.2020 48 20.6N 49.4W 1004 42
0000UTC 11.09.2020 60 20.9N 50.4W 1002 39
1200UTC 11.09.2020 72 21.2N 51.3W 1001 34
0000UTC 12.09.2020 84 21.7N 51.6W 1001 30
1200UTC 12.09.2020 96 23.1N 52.5W 1003 27
0000UTC 13.09.2020 108 25.1N 53.1W 1005 26
1200UTC 13.09.2020 120 26.6N 53.8W 1007 25
0000UTC 14.09.2020 132 27.9N 54.2W 1009 28
1200UTC 14.09.2020 144 28.4N 56.2W 1010 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.7N 17.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2020 48 12.7N 17.5W 1005 38
0000UTC 11.09.2020 60 12.6N 20.1W 1000 34
1200UTC 11.09.2020 72 12.7N 23.3W 994 41
0000UTC 12.09.2020 84 13.0N 26.2W 992 43
1200UTC 12.09.2020 96 13.5N 29.2W 992 43
0000UTC 13.09.2020 108 14.2N 32.1W 991 42
1200UTC 13.09.2020 120 15.0N 35.0W 988 45
0000UTC 14.09.2020 132 15.8N 37.9W 984 52
1200UTC 14.09.2020 144 17.2N 41.0W 980 55

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 19.2N 122.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2020 144 19.2N 122.8W 1005 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081558

>

Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 081558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.09.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 69.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2020 29.7N 69.6W WEAK
00UTC 09.09.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM RENE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 25.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL182020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2020 16.6N 25.8W WEAK
00UTC 09.09.2020 16.9N 28.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2020 17.5N 31.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2020 18.6N 33.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2020 19.5N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2020 20.7N 38.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2020 22.4N 39.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2020 24.4N 40.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2020 26.5N 41.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2020 28.7N 42.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2020 30.3N 43.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2020 31.1N 42.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 31.5N 41.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.1N 43.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2020 18.1N 43.4W WEAK
00UTC 09.09.2020 18.6N 44.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2020 19.5N 46.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2020 20.2N 47.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2020 20.6N 49.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2020 20.9N 50.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2020 21.2N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2020 21.7N 51.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2020 23.1N 52.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2020 25.1N 53.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2020 26.6N 53.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2020 27.9N 54.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 28.4N 56.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 12.7N 17.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.09.2020 12.7N 17.5W WEAK
00UTC 11.09.2020 12.6N 20.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2020 12.7N 23.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2020 13.0N 26.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2020 13.5N 29.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2020 14.2N 32.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2020 15.0N 35.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2020 15.8N 37.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2020 17.2N 41.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 19.2N 122.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2020 19.2N 122.8W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081558

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 081433
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

Paulette's organization has noticeably improved since last night.
The tropical storm is still sheared, with its outflow restricted to
the southwest, however overnight AMSU imagery indicated that
convection was beginning to wrap around the western portion of its
circulation. The intensity estimate has been increased to 55 kt
based on Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Paulette has manged to strengthen despite the shear, and some
additional short-term strengthening is certainly possible. It is not
out of the question that Paulette could become a hurricane, at least
briefly. The global models indicate that the shear will increase on
Wednesday, which should cause Paulette's intensity to level off,
and more likely, decrease. The NHC intensity forecast is just above
the intensity consensus for the first 3 days, out of respect for
Paulette's recent intensification above most of the guidance. By the
weekend, Paulette's strength will heavily depend on its exact
orientation relative to an upper-level low that is expected to be
located west or southwest of the tropical storm. Some
restrengthening could occur then, but the NHC forecast just shows a
steady intensity, near the middle of the guidance suite.

Paulette is forecast to turn generally west-northwestward or
westward tonight and Wednesday as a mid-level ridge builds to its
north. The guidance then indicates that late this week Paulette
will turn northwestward when the ridge weakens. Differences in
Paulette's forward speed on Wednesday and Thursday could result in
a very different track late in the period since it affects the
point at which the tropical storm will turn northwestward. The NHC
forecast is very close to the multi-model consensus throughout the
5-day period, but confidence in the forecast beyond 72 h is lower
than normal due to high spread in the track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 18.4N 43.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 19.0N 44.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 19.8N 45.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 20.3N 47.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 20.6N 49.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 20.7N 51.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 21.2N 52.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 23.1N 55.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 26.0N 58.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 081431
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

...PAULETTE CONTINUES TO GAIN STRENGTH OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 43.3W
ABOUT 1285 MI...2065 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1295 MI...2090 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 43.3 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest or west with a slight increase in forward speed is
expected during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Moderate additional strengthening is possible today and
Paulette could be near hurricane strength by tonight. Gradual
weakening is expected by late Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 081431
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
1500 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 43.3W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 20SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 43.3W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 43.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.0N 44.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 30SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.8N 45.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.3N 47.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.6N 49.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.7N 51.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 21.2N 52.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.1N 55.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 26.0N 58.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 43.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 080835
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

GOES-16 Proxy-VIS and enhanced BD-curve infrared imagery reveals
that Paulette's cloud pattern has continued to improve during the
past several hours. Specifically, the developing inner core is
much more symmetric with new bursts of deep convection (-76C cloud
tops) near the surface circulation center. Subsequently, subjective
and objective satellite intensity estimates support an initial
intensity of 45 kt.

The global models and the statistical-dynamical intensity guidance
indicate increasing southwesterly shear commencing later today.
So, only modest strengthening is shown in the NHC foreast during
next 24 hours. On Friday, the shear stiffens and becomes less
diffluent as the cyclone approaches the high amplitude mid-Atlantic
TUTT. Therefore, Gradual weakening is expected to occur at that
time. Beyond day 3, there are some mixed signals, specifically in
the GFS/FV3 and ECMWF SHIPS output. The GFS/FV3 continues to
indicate strong southwesterly shear through day 5 further weakening
Paulette to a depression around day 4. The ECMWF SHIPS, however,
shows a more southerly and diffluent upper wind pattern supporting
reintensification after day 4. The intensity forecast sides with
that latter solution and also agrees with the HCCA intensity
multi-model indicating the same intensity trend.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 325/5 kt.
The rather weak synoptic steering pattern consists of a large mid-
to upper-level low just west of the Canary Islands and ridging to
the northwest of the cyclone. During the next couple of days, the
large-scale models show the upper low filling and lifting
northeastward, allowing the subtropical ridge to build in behind
the departing upper low from the western Atlantic. This change
in the pattern should cause Paulette to turn west-northwestward on
Wednesday and continue moving in this general motion through early
Saturday. Through the remaining portion of the period, the global
models indicate a major shortwave trough moving off of the
northeast coast of the U.S. and breaking down the western extent of
the subtropical ridge/Bermuda high. This growing weakness in the
ridge should cause Paulette to turn toward the northwest early
Sunday. The official track forecast is a little bit slower and to
the right of the previous forecast after day 3, and is close to the
various consensus aids.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 18.1N 42.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 18.6N 43.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 19.5N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 20.2N 46.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 20.5N 48.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 20.8N 50.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 21.3N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 22.9N 54.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 25.4N 57.8W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 080834
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Tue Sep 08 2020

...PAULETTE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 42.8W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2010 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 42.8 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and should continue
in this general motion with a faster forward speed later today,
then move west-northwestward Wednesday through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the
next day or so, with little change in strength expected afterward
through Thursday. Some weakening is expected Thursday evening and
Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 080834
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0900 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 42.8W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 42.8W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 42.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.6N 43.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.5N 45.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.2N 46.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.5N 48.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 20.8N 50.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 21.3N 51.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 30SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 22.9N 54.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 25.4N 57.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 42.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 080232
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

Satellite images show that Paulette continues to become better
organized, with a more symmetric presentation and very deep
convection near or just north of the center. The initial wind speed
is increased to 40 kt, a little higher than recent subjective Dvorak
estimates, but close to the objective estimates and the UW-CIMSS
satellite consensus. Further strengthening is expected during the
next day or so while the storm remains in a warm SST and
low-to-moderate shear environment. By midweek, some weakening is
forecast due to an increase in shear from an enhanced mid-oceanic
upper-level trough. There's a fair amount of uncertainty on how
quickly the tropical cyclone moves across the trough axis, which
would then allow Paulette to find an area of lighter shear, plus
very warm water, by the end of the forecast period. The intensity
forecast is slightly higher in the short-term, and lower in the
day-4 period just before the environment is forecast to improve.

Paulette appears to be moving slowly north-northwestward this
evening. A mid-level ridge is likely to build over the western and
central North Atlantic in a day or two, and this pattern should
cause Paulette to move faster toward the northwest tomorrow, and
west-northwestward or westward through late week. A turn back
toward the west-northwest or northwest is possible over the weekend
as the cyclone reaches the western periphery of the ridge. This is
not a particularly certain forecast because the track models aren't
in good agreement, perhaps linked to the strength of Paulette, and
there is significant spread in the various ensemble guidance. With
no clear trends to rely on, and since the new model consensus came
in very close to the previous NHC forecast, the new NHC track
prediction is basically unchanged from the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 17.8N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 18.4N 42.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 19.2N 44.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 19.9N 45.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 20.5N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 20.9N 49.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 21.3N 51.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 22.5N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 25.0N 58.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 080231
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

...A SLIGHTLY STRONGER PAULETTE DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 42.5W
ABOUT 1230 MI...1975 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1350 MI...2175 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 42.5 West. Paulette is
moving toward the north-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). The storm is
forecast to turn toward the northwest and move faster on Tuesday,
and move west-northwestward or westward on Wednesday and Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the day or
two, with little change in strength expected afterward through
Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 080230
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0300 UTC TUE SEP 08 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 42.5W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 42.5W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 42.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.4N 42.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 19.2N 44.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.9N 45.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.5N 47.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.9N 49.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 21.3N 51.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 22.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 25.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 42.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 072031
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

Recent visible imagery shows that Paulette's circulation has become
better defined since this morning. There has also been some evidence
of increased banding, however the tropical storm remains sheared,
with deep convection occuring primarily in its northeast quadrant.
Recent satellite-based intensity estimates range from just below to
just above the 35-kt intensity estimate.

The NHC forecast still calls for modest strengthening over the next
day or two, and this seems like a good bet given the recent observed
improvement of Paulette's organization and structure. Moderate shear
and some surrounding dry air appear to be inhibiting factors for
substantial intensification, though the HWRF is a notable outlier
that forecasts Paulette to become a hurricane in about 48 h. No
major changes to the official intensity forecast were required at
this time, and the NHC forecast is between the IVCN and HCCA
consensus aids.

Paulette appears to have moved slowly toward the northwest during
the past several hours. The guidance spread has increased a little,
though the models all have the same general idea. For the next 12 to
24 hours, Paulette will be embedded in an area of weak steering
flow, though reformations of the center closer to the convection
could result in a northwest to north-northwestward motion. A
mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the western and central
North Atlantic in a day or two and this should cause Paulette to
turn back toward the west. The NHC forecast is slightly north of the
previous one and is close to the latest multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 17.5N 42.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 17.9N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 18.8N 43.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 19.6N 45.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 20.8N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 21.1N 50.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 21.8N 53.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 24.0N 56.5W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 072030
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 PM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

...PAULETTE DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.5N 42.4W
ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 42.4 West. Paulette is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion
toward the northwest or north-northwest is expected tonight.
Paulette is then forecast to move a little faster and generally
westward on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Modest strengthening is expected during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 072030
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
2100 UTC MON SEP 07 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.4W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 42.4W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 42.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.9N 42.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.8N 43.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.6N 45.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.3N 46.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.8N 48.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 70SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.1N 50.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE 50SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 21.8N 53.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 24.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.5N 42.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 071439
TCDAT2

Tropical Storm Paulette Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

Visible imagery and recent ASCAT data indicate that the circulation
of Paulette is quite elongated from southwest to northeast. However,
the ASCAT data indicated that winds up to tropical-storm-force were
present, and this was corroborated by a 35 kt Dvorak-based intensity
estimate from TAFB. Paulette is the 16th named storm of the 2020
Atlantic hurricane season. It is also the earliest 16th named storm
of any Atlantic season by 10 days. The previous record was Philippe,
which formed on September 17, 2005.

Although it is elongated, the tropical storm's structure seems to
have improved over the past few hours, with convection increasing in
both coverage and organization. Although moderate southerly shear
and some dry environmental air appear to be limiting factors, most
of the intensity guidance suggests that modest strengthening is
likely for the next couple of days. Near the end of the week, the
models indicate that Paulette's winds will plateau or possibly
decrease. This appears to be the result of increasing southwesterly
shear associated with a upper-level trough that is forecast to
deepen over the central Atlantic on Thursday and Friday. The
official intensity forecast remains very near the multi-model
consensus.

Paulette has moved very little during the past few hours, but a
west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to resume
shortly. Fluctuations in the strength of a mid-level ridge over the
western and central Atlantic will likely cause Paulette's exact
speed and heading to fluctuate during the next several says, but the
guidance agrees that it should generally head northwestward through
the end of the week. It is likely that the stronger Paulette gets,
the farther north it will move since the aforementioned upper-level
trough will have a greater influence on its track. The NHC track
forecast is based on a blend of the previous forecast and the latest
multi-model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 17.2N 42.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 17.9N 43.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 18.7N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 19.6N 46.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 20.3N 48.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 20.7N 50.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 21.0N 53.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 23.0N 56.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 071437
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Paulette Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE OVER THE CENTRAL
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 42.2W
ABOUT 1205 MI...1940 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1375 MI...2215 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Paulette was
located near latitude 17.2 North, longitude 42.2 West. Paulette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A general
weest-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly faster
speed is expected during the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Modest additional strengthening is expected
during the next couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 071436
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM PAULETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
1500 UTC MON SEP 07 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 42.2W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 42.2W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 42.1W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.4N 42.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.9N 43.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.7N 44.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 19.6N 46.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 20.3N 48.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 70SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 20.7N 50.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 70SE 40SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 21.0N 53.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.0N 56.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 42.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 070837
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

Tropical Depression Seventeen is a large tropical cyclone, with its
circulation evident several hundred miles from its center. An area
of deep convection has developed tonight just over and to the east
of its center with cloud top temperatures as low as -80 degrees C.
However, there appears to be some dry air in the northwestern
portion of the cyclone's circulation limiting convection there. The
latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and UW-CIMSS
support keeping the initial intensity at 30 kt.

The depression has been moving west-northwestward at about 5 kt
over the past 12 hours. This general motion is expected to continue
throughout the 5-day forecast period, with some increase in
forward speed over the next couple of days as the cyclone is
steered by a weak mid-level ridge to its north. The overall
guidance shifted slightly to the north through day 3 and the latest
NHC forecast lies in between the previous one and the consensus
track guidance through this time period. For days 3 through 5, the
forecast track is little changed from the previous one and is in
good agreement with the fairly tightly clustered track guidance.

Other than some dry air in the vicinity of the depression, the
overall environment looks favorable for strengthening over the next
few days. However, due to the large size of the circulation,
strengthening may occur more slowly than what might be expected from
a more compact cyclone. Therefore, only gradual strengthening is
indicated in the official forecast during that time. By 72 h,
increasing vertical wind shear should limit further intensification,
and may cause some weakening to occur. The latest NHC intensity
forecast is a blend of the previous one and the HFIP corrected
consensus, HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 17.3N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 17.5N 42.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 17.8N 43.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 18.3N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 19.1N 45.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 19.7N 47.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 20.1N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 20.6N 52.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 21.7N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 070836
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
500 AM AST Mon Sep 07 2020

...DEPRESSION MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 42.1W
ABOUT 1200 MI...1930 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1380 MI...2225 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 42.1 West.
The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9
km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the next few
days with a gradual increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is forecast over the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 070836
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0900 UTC MON SEP 07 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 42.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 42.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 42.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.5N 42.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.8N 43.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.3N 44.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.1N 45.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.7N 47.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.1N 49.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 20.6N 52.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.7N 55.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 42.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

Original Message :

WTNT42 KNHC 070237
TCDAT2

Tropical Depression Seventeen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 06 2020

The tropical low that the National Hurricane Center has been
tracking the past few days west of the Cabo Verde Islands has
developed enough convective banding for the system to be classified
as a tropical depression. A 06/2345Z ASCAT-B scatterometer pass
indicated surface wind speeds of 30-31 kt north of the center, which
are supported by a T2.0/30 kt Dvorak satellite intensity estimate
from TAFB at 07/0000 UTC.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 270/04kt. The center has
been jumping around somewhat due to small, brief convective bursts
that then dissipate, leaving small swirls rotating around the mean
circulation center. However, the latest ASCAT data showed a much
better defined overall circulation, especially in the inner core
wind field region, so the forward motion should stabilize fairly
soon. The depression is expected to remain caught in weak steering
flow for the next 5 days, so only a slow westward motion is expected
tonight and Monday, followed by a west-northwestward motion by later
Monday and Tuesday that will continue through the remainder of the
120-h forecast period. Possible track forecast complications could
develop by days 3-5 if binary interaction occurs between the
depression and the large low (Invest 93L) currently located
southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands, resulting in TD-17 not gaining
as much latitude as currently indicated. The NHC forecast track lies
down the middle of the simple- and corrected-consensus model
guidance envelope.

The depression is only forecast to slowly strengthen for the next 4
days or so due to expected intrusions of dry mid-level air. By day
5, increasing southerly vertical wind shear on the east side of a
large upper-level low that is forecast to cut off north of Puerto
Rico is expected to induce gradual weakening. However, both the
timing of the development of the low and its west-southwestward
motion will determine if sufficient shear will prevent further
strengthening after 96 h; a slower formation of the low and/or a
slower retrograding motion would result in at least less weakening.
The NHC intensity forecast closely follows an average of the IVCN
and NOAA-HCCA intensity consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 17.0N 41.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 17.0N 42.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 17.2N 42.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 17.5N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 18.0N 44.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 18.6N 46.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 19.2N 48.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 20.4N 51.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 21.2N 55.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT32 KNHC 070232
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Seventeen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172020
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 06 2020

...NEW DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 41.5W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1425 MI...2290 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Seventeen was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 41.5 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 5 mph (7 km/h) and
this motion is forecast to continue into Monday. By late Monday and
Tuesday, a turn toward the west-northwest is expected, and that
motion should continue into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

Original Message :

WTNT22 KNHC 070231
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVENTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172020
0300 UTC MON SEP 07 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 41.5W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 41.5W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 41.3W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 42.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 17.2N 42.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.5N 43.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 18.0N 44.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 18.6N 46.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 19.2N 48.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 20.4N 51.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 21.2N 55.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 41.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>