Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for MEKKHALA-20
in China

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 28N 117E
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 1004HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 111200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 111200UTC 28N 117E
MOVE NNW 15KT
PRES 1004HPA =


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 27.0N 116.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 18KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 34.2N 117.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 110900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110900UTC 27.0N 116.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 18KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120900UTC 34.2N 117.9E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MEKKHALA IS LOCATED AT 25.6N, 117.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1002HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS IN
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE
OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT12. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 110600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM 2006 MEKKHALA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 110600UTC 25.6N 117.2E
MOVEMENT N 23KT
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 25.6N 117.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 33.0N 117.8E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 110600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110600UTC 25.6N 117.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120600UTC 33.0N 117.8E 100NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 110600
WARNING 110600.
WARNING VALID 120600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2006 MEKKHALA (2006) 1002 HPA
AT 25.6N 117.3E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 28.3N 117.3E WITH 75 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 33.0N 117.8E WITH 100 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1008 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 110300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 24.5N 117.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120300UTC 32.3N 118.8E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 110300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110300UTC 24.5N 117.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120300UTC 32.3N 118.8E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MEKKHALA IS LOCATED AT 24.2N, 117.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998HPA
AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 45KNOTS. THE
SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF LAND AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT06 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED
PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY
FT12. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 110300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 07W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 07W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 24.1N 117.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.1N 117.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.7N 117.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 29.4N 117.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 33.1N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
110300Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 117.6E.
11AUG20. TYPHOON 07W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 216 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TYPHOON MEKKHALA IS QUICKLY BECOMING SHEARED, WITH
THE OUTER LOW LEVEL BANDS ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM NOW
EXPOSED, BUT WITH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING IN PLACE OVER AND SOUTH
OF THE ASSESSED CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON COMPOSITE CHINESE RADAR DATA. A REASSESSMENT OF
EARLIER INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAS LED TO AN INCREASE IN THE INITIAL
INTENSITY AT THE 101800Z POSITION TO 65 KNOTS BASED ON AMSR2
WINDSPEED ESTIMATE OF 64 KNOTS AT 1743Z. A SUBSEQUENT 102100Z
INTERMEDIATE POSITION INTENSITY HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASED TO 70 KNOTS
BASED ON A REPORT OF A CHINESE BUOY WHICH REPORTED A 10-MIN AVERAGE
WIND OF 63 KNOTS, WHICH EQUATES TO A 69 KNOTS 1-MIN AVERAGE. TYPHOON
07W MADE LANDFALL ALONG THE CHINESE COAST AROUND 2200Z AND IS NOW
MOVING FURTHER INLAND. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWARD WHILE WEAKENING, FULLY DISSIPATING OVERLAND BY TAU 36.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 110000Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05W (JANGMI)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 06W (SIX) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 110146

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 110000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MEKKHALA (2006) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (24.1 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (117.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.
0000008200
21751

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 24.2N 117.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 31.8N 118.6E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 110000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 110000UTC 24.2N 117.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 120000UTC 31.8N 118.6E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 110000
WARNING 110000.
WARNING VALID 120000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2006 MEKKHALA (2006) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 998 HPA
AT 24.2N 117.6E SOUTH CHINA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 27.0N 117.5E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 31.8N 118.6E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1006 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 110000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4
NAME 2006 MEKKHALA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 110000UTC 24.1N 117.7E
MOVEMENT NNW 16KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 111200UTC 26.7N 117.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 102246

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 102100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM MEKKHALA (2006) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (23.4
N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (118.1 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, 30 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 112100 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (28.3 N)
ONE ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (117.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 122100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 23.4N 118.0E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 28.0N 117.7E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 102100
WARNING 102100.
WARNING VALID 112100.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2006 MEKKHALA (2006) 992 HPA
AT 23.4N 118.0E TAIWAN STRAIT MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110900UTC AT 25.7N 117.5E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 112100UTC AT 28.0N 117.7E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 102100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 102100UTC 23.4N 118.0E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 112100UTC 28.0N 117.7E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 22.9N 118.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 118.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.4N 117.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 28.8N 118.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 32.4N 119.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 23.5N 118.1E.
10AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 224
NM EAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 14
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 05W (JANGMI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR STS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS MEKKHALA IS LOCATED AT 22.9N, 118.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
992HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 50KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE ELONGATION OF
A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT12. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 101800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3
NAME 2006 MEKKHALA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 101800UTC 22.9N 118.2E
MOVEMENT NNW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 110600UTC 25.3N 118.2E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
24HR
POSITION 111800UTC 27.2N 118.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 25KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 22.9N 118.3E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 27.5N 117.8E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 101800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101800UTC 22.9N 118.3E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111800UTC 27.5N 117.8E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 101800
WARNING 101800.
WARNING VALID 111800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 2006 MEKKHALA (2006) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL
STORM 992 HPA
AT 22.9N 118.3E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 25.3N 118.1E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111800UTC AT 27.5N 117.8E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 101646

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 101500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM MEKKHALA (2006) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (22.2 N) ONE ONE
EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (118.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111500 UTC
TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (26.6 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 22.1N 118.5E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111500UTC 27.2N 117.5E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 101500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101500UTC 22.1N 118.5E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111500UTC 27.2N 117.5E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 005
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 21.6N 118.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 118.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.1N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.6N 118.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 29.2N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 118.7E.
10AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261
NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06W (SIX)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS MEKKHALA IS LOCATED AT 21.6N, 118.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
998HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 40KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE CHINESE
MAINLAND BY FT24. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NWP MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT24. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 101346

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 101200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM MEKKHALA (2006) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) ONE ONE
EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (118.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 111200 UTC
TWO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (26.2 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 121200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 21.6N 118.6E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 26.7N 117.7E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 101200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 101200UTC 21.6N 118.6E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 111200UTC 26.7N 117.7E 65NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 101200
WARNING 101200.
WARNING VALID 111200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2006 MEKKHALA (2006) 998 HPA
AT 21.6N 118.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 24.4N 118.4E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 26.7N 117.7E WITH 65 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1004 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 101200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME 2006 MEKKHALA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 101200UTC 21.6N 118.6E
MOVEMENT N 13KT
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 110000UTC 24.1N 118.5E WITHIN 30NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
24HR
POSITION 111200UTC 26.3N 118.2E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
36HR
POSITION 120000UTC 27.9N 117.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 101046

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 100900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM MEKKHALA (2006) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N) ONE ONE
EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (118.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110900 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (25.8 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 20.8N 118.6E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 25.9N 118.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 120600UTC 32.3N 120.9E 170NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 100900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100900UTC 20.8N 118.6E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110900UTC 25.9N 118.2E 65NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 120600UTC 32.3N 120.9E 170NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEKKHALA) WARNING NR 004
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 20.2N 118.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2N 118.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 22.7N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.1N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 27.8N 119.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 30.1N 119.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 118.7E.
10AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 07W (MEKKHALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
332 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z,
110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI)
WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 06W (SIX) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
THE SYSTEM WAS UPGRADED TO TS (MEKKHALA) STATUS THREE HOURS AGO.
TS MEKKHALA IS LOCATED AT 20.3N, 118.6E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000HPA AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR THE CENTER ARE 35KNOTS.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE FORMATION OF A
BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NWP MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 100746

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 100600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM MEKKHALA (2006) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE
ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (118.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110600 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (25.4 N)
ONE ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (118.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 20.3N 118.6E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 25.8N 118.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 120600UTC 32.3N 120.9E 170NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 20.3N 118.6E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 150NM SOUTHEAST 90NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 25.8N 118.6E 80NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 120600UTC 32.3N 120.9E 170NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 100600
WARNING 100600.
WARNING VALID 110600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 2006 MEKKHALA (2006) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
1000 HPA
AT 20.3N 118.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 90
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 23.1N 118.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
998 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 25.8N 118.6E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 32.3N 120.9E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1002 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 19.5N 118.6E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 110300UTC 25.1N 119.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2006 MEKKHALA (2006) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 19.5N 118.6E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 100NM
FORECAST
24HF 110300UTC 25.1N 119.2E 50NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 100300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 003
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 19.2N 118.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 118.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.9N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.2N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.9N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 29.0N 119.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 118.5E.
10AUG20. TROPICAL STORM 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 092100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 002
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 118.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 118.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 20.9N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.2N 118.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 25.4N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 27.2N 118.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
092100Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 118.5E.
09AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
265 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 16.8N 118.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.8N 118.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 19.0N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 21.5N 118.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 23.8N 118.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 26.0N 118.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 118.4E.
09AUG20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07W (SEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
204 NM NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 05W (JANGMI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 06W (SIX) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

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