Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TEN-20
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2020-08-02 04:04


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 020403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.08.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 58.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.08.2020 15.7N 58.5W WEAK
12UTC 02.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 25.1N 78.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.08.2020 25.1N 78.7W MODERATE
12UTC 02.08.2020 26.4N 79.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2020 27.5N 80.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2020 28.9N 80.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2020 30.9N 79.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.08.2020 34.2N 78.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.08.2020 38.7N 75.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.08.2020 43.9N 71.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.08.2020 49.5N 67.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2020 53.4N 69.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.08.2020 51.7N 68.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 24.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.08.2020 19.2N 24.0W WEAK
12UTC 02.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 36.3N 45.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.08.2020 36.3N 45.5W WEAK
00UTC 04.08.2020 36.3N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.08.2020 36.1N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2020 35.7N 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.08.2020 35.5N 34.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.08.2020 35.5N 31.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020403

>

2020-08-02 02:41


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 020238
TCDAT5

Remnants Of Ten Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020
200 AM CVT Sun Aug 02 2020

Scatterometer data around 2130 UTC confirmed that the system north
of the Cabo Verde islands no longer has a well-defined center. The
scatterometer data showed that the southwest semicircle of the
system consists of only light and variable winds, and the strongest
winds associated with the system have decreased to around 20 kt. The
system lacks deep convection and a combination of cool underlying
water and a dry surrounding environment will prevent regeneration.
This is the last NHC advisory on this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 19.5N 25.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...REMNANTS OF TEN
12H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-08-02 02:41


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 020238
TCMAT5

REMNANTS OF TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020
0300 UTC SUN AUG 02 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 25.0W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 25.0W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 24.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 25.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT50 LFPW.

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-08-02 02:40


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 020238
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Ten Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020
200 AM CVT Sun Aug 02 2020

...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 25.0W
ABOUT 250 MI...405 KM NNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Ten were located near
latitude 19.5 North, longitude 25.0 West. The system no longer has
a well-defined center and has dissipated. The remnant trough should
move generally west-northwestward for the next day or so.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts.
The winds associated with the remnants of the depression should
continue to decrease through Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header
FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-08-01 20:36


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 012034
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020
800 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020

The depression is barely a tropical cyclone. Most of the deep
convection from the burst earlier in the day has now dissipated and
the circulation appears to be losing definition. The initial
intensity is held at 25 kt based on the ASCAT data from several
hours ago. Since the cyclone is over cool waters and in a dry
environment, significant deep convection is unlikely to return.
Therefore, the depression will likely become a remnant low tonight
and open into a trough shortly thereafter.

The weak and shallow system has turned to the left recently, with
the latest initial motion estimated to be 305/11 kt. A general
west-northwest motion is expected until the system dissipates a
couple of hundred miles north of the northern-most Cabo Verde
Islands tonight or on Sunday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 19.2N 23.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 19.9N 25.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-08-01 20:35


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 012033
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020
800 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 23.5W
ABOUT 225 MI...360 KM N OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 23.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h).
The weak system is expected to turn west-northwestward before it
dissipates to the north of the Cabo Verde Islands tonight or on
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a remnant low or dissipate
tonight or on Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-08-01 20:35


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 012032
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020
2100 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 23.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 23.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 22.9W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 19.9N 25.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 23.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-08-01 14:34


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 011432
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020
200 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020

The center of the depression is mostly exposed this morning with
deep convection remaining only over the northwest portion of the
circulation. A recent ASCAT overpass showed a small area of
winds of 20 to 25 kt in the northern semicircle. Based on this
data, the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. The
persistent convection has likely bought a little more time for
the depression to survive. However, the cyclone is forecast to
remain over SSTs of about 24 to 25 C for the next day or so. This
should cause the convection to gradually decrease, causing the
depression to become a remnant low by tonight. An alternative
scenario is that the low could open into a trough before the
convection dissipates.

The depression is moving northwest at around 12 kt. A turn to the
west-northwest is expected later today as the cyclone pivots around
a large mid-level gyre to its southwest. This west-northwest motion
should continue until the system dissipates.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 18.6N 22.2W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 19.8N 23.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-08-01 14:34


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 011432
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020
200 PM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE BY
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM CVT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 22.2W
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM NNE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM CVT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 22.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to move
north of the Cabo Verde Islands this afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to become a remnant low or dissipate by
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-08-01 14:34


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 011432
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020
1500 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 22.2W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 22.2W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 21.7W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.8N 23.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 22.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-08-01 08:34


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 010832
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020
800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020

Satellite images indicate that only a small area of deep convection
remains with the depression, and the center is partially exposed on
the southeastern edge of the thunderstorms. The initial wind speed
is kept 30 kt based on persistence. It seems like the chance for
the depression to become a tropical storm has passed with it now
moving over cooler waters into a drier air mass. Thus weakening is
forecast, and the system will likely degenerate into a remnant low
later today.

The depression continues moving northwestward, and that course
should persist today before turning towards the west-northwest
around a larger cyclonic gyre on Sunday. A slight northward
adjustment has been made to the forecast, a bit south of the GFS
model. All of the model guidance dissipate the small low within 36
hours, so this is indicated in the new forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 17.8N 21.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 19.2N 23.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 02/0600Z 20.5N 26.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-08-01 08:33


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 010831
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020
800 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020

...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM CVT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 21.6W
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM NE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM CVT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 21.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected by Saturday
afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is
expected to move north of the Cabo Verde Islands later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to weaken and become a remnant low later
today.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-08-01 08:33


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 010831
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020
0900 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 21.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 21.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 21.3W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 19.2N 23.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 20.5N 26.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 21.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-08-01 04:02


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 010401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 01.08.2020

HURRICANE ISAIAS ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 76.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.08.2020 0 22.5N 76.1W 1001 42
1200UTC 01.08.2020 12 23.9N 77.3W 999 42
0000UTC 02.08.2020 24 25.0N 78.4W 998 48
1200UTC 02.08.2020 36 26.1N 79.4W 997 44
0000UTC 03.08.2020 48 27.2N 80.1W 995 43
1200UTC 03.08.2020 60 28.4N 80.4W 994 47
0000UTC 04.08.2020 72 30.2N 80.0W 986 56
1200UTC 04.08.2020 84 33.0N 78.8W 967 71
0000UTC 05.08.2020 96 37.3N 76.6W 980 62
1200UTC 05.08.2020 108 42.3N 73.1W 984 46
0000UTC 06.08.2020 120 46.9N 69.0W 991 32
1200UTC 06.08.2020 132 50.5N 65.7W 996 35
0000UTC 07.08.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10L ANALYSED POSITION : 16.7N 20.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.08.2020 0 16.7N 20.6W 1012 19
1200UTC 01.08.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 010400

>

2020-08-01 02:50


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 010248
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020
200 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020

The small depression maintained a large burst of convection in its
northwest quadrant for several hours after the last advisory, though
cloud tops have warmed steadily since around 00Z. An ASCAT-B pass
near 2300 UTC showed max winds near 35 kt, but these winds coincided
with the coldest cloud tops in Meteosat imagery at that time,
indicating they may have been rain inflated. Data from ASCAT-C valid
about 40 minutes earlier only showed peak winds closer to 30 kt,
also near the deepest convection. The highest wind retrievals in the
east half of the circulation, where you would often expect the
highest winds for a system moving north or northwest, were between
25 and 30 kt in both passes. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates
were 30 kt and 25 kt from TAFB and SAB, respectively, at 00Z. It is
possible that the cyclone briefly had tropical-storm-strength winds
at one point, but given the observed warming of cloud tops since
00Z, the intensity is maintained at 30 kt for this advisory.

There is no real change to the forecast reasoning. The depression is
moving northwestward and a turn toward the west-northwest is
expected later today as it moves around a larger cyclonic gyre.
Conditions do not appear to be favorable for any strengthening, and
the dynamical models indicate that deep convection will dissipate
later today due to cool underlying SSTs and a drier surrounding
environment. The NHC track and intensity forecast is based on the
TVCA and IVCN consensus aids and has not been changed significantly
from the previous advisory.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 17.1N 21.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 18.4N 22.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 19.3N 25.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 02/1200Z 20.0N 28.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-08-01 02:48


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 010246
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020
200 AM CVT Sat Aug 01 2020

...DEPRESSION PERSISTING OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM CVT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.1N 21.1W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM ENE OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM CVT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 17.1 North, longitude 21.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A
turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected by Saturday
afternoon. On the forecast track, the center of the depression is
expected to move north of the northernmost Cabo Verde Islands on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Although the system could briefly become a short-lived tropical
storm, it is forecast to weaken and become a remnant low within the
next 24 hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-08-01 02:47


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 010245
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020
0300 UTC SAT AUG 01 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 21.1W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 21.1W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 20.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 18.4N 22.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 19.3N 25.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 20.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N 21.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-07-31 20:51


Original Message :

WTNT45 KNHC 312048
TCDAT5

Tropical Depression Ten Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020
800 PM CVT Fri Jul 31 2020

Deep convection has recently developed closer to the center of a
small area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles east of
the Cabo Verde Islands. Earlier ASCAT data indicated peak winds of
around 25 kt, but given the small size of the system and the likely
undersampling of the instrument, the initial intensity is set at 30
kt. This is in line with a Dvorak classification of T2.0 from SAB.
With the recent increase in convective organization, there is a
potential for the depression to become a short-lived tropical storm
tonight. After that time, the environment is forecast to become
increasingly hostile as cooler waters and less favorable
thermodynamic conditions lie ahead. As a result, weakening should
begin on Saturday and the system is forecast to become a remnant low
Saturday night and dissipate shortly thereafter.

The system is moving slightly west of due north, or 355/8 kt. The
depression is forecast to turn northwestward tonight, then
west-northwestward to westward on Saturday and Saturday night as it
moves around the eastern side of a large cyclonic gyre over the far
eastern Atlantic. The track guidance is in relatively good
agreement, and the NHC forecast is near the TVCA multi-model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/2100Z 15.9N 20.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 17.3N 21.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 18.5N 23.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 18.8N 25.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-31 20:50


Original Message :

WTNT35 KNHC 312047
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Ten Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102020
800 PM CVT Fri Jul 31 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BE SHORT-LIVED...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM CVT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.9N 20.0W
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM E OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM CVT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten was
located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 20.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight, followed by a turn to the
west-northwest and west on Saturday and Saturday night. On the
forecast track, the center of the depression is expected to pass
north of the northernmost Cabo Verde Islands tonight and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system could become a short-lived tropical storm later tonight.
However, weakening is forecast to begin on Saturday and the system
is expected to become a remnant low Saturday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM CVT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-31 20:49


Original Message :

WTNT25 KNHC 312047
TCMAT5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102020
2100 UTC FRI JUL 31 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 20.0W AT 31/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 20.0W AT 31/2100Z
AT 31/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 19.7W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 17.3N 21.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 18.5N 23.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.8N 25.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 20.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>