Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DOUGLAS-20
in United States,

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2020-07-30 04:05


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 300403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.07.2020

TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 66.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2020 0 15.9N 66.2W 1006 38
1200UTC 30.07.2020 12 17.9N 68.2W 1006 35
0000UTC 31.07.2020 24 18.9N 72.8W 1005 39
1200UTC 31.07.2020 36 21.0N 72.9W 1004 42
0000UTC 01.08.2020 48 22.2N 75.5W 1003 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 60 23.3N 77.8W 1004 39
0000UTC 02.08.2020 72 24.4N 79.0W 1004 35
1200UTC 02.08.2020 84 25.5N 80.2W 1004 35
0000UTC 03.08.2020 96 26.7N 80.9W 1003 31
1200UTC 03.08.2020 108 27.9N 81.3W 1004 32
0000UTC 04.08.2020 120 29.8N 80.4W 996 41
1200UTC 04.08.2020 132 32.7N 78.8W 973 69
0000UTC 05.08.2020 144 36.3N 76.5W 977 57

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N 178.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.07.2020 0 25.3N 178.0W 1015 29
1200UTC 30.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.5N 130.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 31.07.2020 36 12.5N 130.1W 1008 26
0000UTC 01.08.2020 48 13.0N 131.5W 1007 26
1200UTC 01.08.2020 60 13.3N 132.5W 1007 31
0000UTC 02.08.2020 72 13.4N 133.3W 1009 27
1200UTC 02.08.2020 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 16.4N 124.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2020 120 16.4N 124.1W 1008 23
1200UTC 04.08.2020 132 17.5N 127.1W 1006 30
0000UTC 05.08.2020 144 18.6N 129.9W 1006 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 37.5N 44.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.08.2020 120 37.5N 44.1W 1011 30
1200UTC 04.08.2020 132 37.7N 41.5W 1012 28
0000UTC 05.08.2020 144 37.2N 39.7W 1013 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300403

>

2020-07-30 04:04


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 300403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 30.07.2020

TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 66.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.07.2020 15.9N 66.2W WEAK
12UTC 30.07.2020 17.9N 68.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2020 18.9N 72.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2020 21.0N 72.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2020 22.2N 75.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2020 23.3N 77.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2020 24.4N 79.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2020 25.5N 80.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.08.2020 26.7N 80.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.08.2020 27.9N 81.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.08.2020 29.8N 80.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.08.2020 32.7N 78.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.08.2020 36.3N 76.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 25.3N 178.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.07.2020 25.3N 178.0W WEAK
12UTC 30.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 12.5N 130.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 31.07.2020 12.5N 130.1W WEAK
00UTC 01.08.2020 13.0N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2020 13.3N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2020 13.4N 133.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 16.4N 124.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.08.2020 16.4N 124.1W WEAK
12UTC 04.08.2020 17.5N 127.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2020 18.6N 129.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 37.5N 44.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.08.2020 37.5N 44.1W WEAK
12UTC 04.08.2020 37.7N 41.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.08.2020 37.2N 39.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 300403

>

2020-07-29 15:02


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 291600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 037//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 037
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 24.6N 174.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 174.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 25.0N 178.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.9N 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
291600Z POSITION NEAR 24.7N 175.8W.
29JUL20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
548 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING FOR JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS
OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291200Z
IS 9 FEET.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-29 14:54


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 291452 CCA
TCDCP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas Discussion Number 37...CORRECTED
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
452 AM HST Wed Jul 29 2020

A cluster of thunderstorms north of Douglas' center is producing an
impressive amount of lightning this morning, but is not indicative
of system reorganization. While these thunderstorms are indeed
associated with Douglas' deteriorating circulation, they are removed
from the center, and will soon be sheared away by persistent
southerly vertical wind shear. Satellite imagery shows the exposed
low-level circulation center becoming increasingly elongated, while
an earlier ASCAT pass indicated little in the way of westerly flow
in the southern semicircle. Douglas has degenerated into a post-
tropical remnant low (and may already be an open wave) with maximum
winds on the north side estimated to be near 30 kt.

With Douglas' initial motion vector of 275/20 kt, associated
hazards have moved west of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument, and the Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued. A
strong low-level ridge to the north will steer Douglas rapidly
westward, with the remnant low expected to cross the International
Date Line later today. As the remnant low rounds the ridge, it is
expected to gain some latitude over the next 24 hours or so before
dissipating, in line with global model guidance and the previous
forecast.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on Douglas. Additional information on this system can be
found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service in Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header
FZPN40 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 24.7N 175.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 30/0000Z 25.0N 178.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/1200Z 25.9N 177.2E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

2020-07-29 14:51


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 291450
TCDCP2

Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas Discussion Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 AM HST Wed Jul 29 2020

A cluster of thunderstorms north of Douglas' center is producing an
impressive amount of lightning this morning, but is not indicative
of system reorganization. While these thunderstorms are indeed
associated with Douglas' deteriorating circulation, they are removed
from the center, and will soon be sheared away by persistent
southerly vertical wind shear. Satellite imagery shows the exposed
low-level circulation center becoming increasingly elongated, while
an earlier ASCAT pass indicated little in the way of westerly flow
in the southern semicircle. Douglas has degenerated into a post-
tropical remnant low (and may already be an open wave) with maximum
winds on the north side estimated to be near 30 kt.

With Douglas' initial motion vector of 275/20 kt, associated
hazards have moved west of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument, and the Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued. A
strong low-level ridge to the north will steer Douglas rapidly
westward, with the remnant low expected to cross the International
Date Line later today. As the remnant low rounds the ridge, it is
expected to gain some latitude over the next 24 hours or so before
dissipating, in line with global model guidance and the previous
forecast.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on Douglas. Additional information on this system can be
found in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service in Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header
FZPN40 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 24.7N 175.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 30/0000Z 25.0N 178.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/1200Z 25.9N 177.2E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

2020-07-29 14:36


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 291435
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas Advisory Number 37
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 AM HST Wed Jul 29 2020

...DOUGLAS DEGENERATES TO A POST-TROPICAL LOW...
...WILL CROSS THE INTERNATIONAL DATE LINE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 175.4W
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSE OF MIDWAY ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument from Maro Reef to Lisianski has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

None.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Douglas was located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 175.4 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 23 mph (37
km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue until Douglas
crosses the International Date Line later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast, and Douglas is expected to dissipate shortly
after crossing the Date Line.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large seas and swells generated by Douglas will impact
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument west of
Maro Reef today, then diminish tonight.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on the
post-tropical low can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS head HFOHSFNP, WMO header
FZPN40 PHFO, and on the web at https://www.weather.gov/hfo/HSFNP.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-07-29 14:34


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 291434
TCMCP2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
1500 UTC WED JUL 29 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

NONE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 175.4W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1012 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 60SE 60SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 175.4W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 174.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 25.0N 178.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 25.9N 177.2E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 175.4W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOHSFNP...AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

2020-07-29 11:44


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 291144
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
200 AM HST Wed Jul 29 2020

...DOUGLAS PASSING SOUTH OF LISIANSKI AND RAPIDLY APPROACHING
THE DATE LINE...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.7N 174.3W
ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF MIDWAY ISLAND
ABOUT 1065 MI...1715 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Maro Reef to Lisianski

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 6 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 24.7 North, longitude 174.3 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue until Douglas crosses the
International Date Line in about 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next two days, and Douglas
is expected to dissipate shortly after crossing the Date Line.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected from Laysan Island to
Lisianski through tonight, with winds diminishing later today.

SURF: Large seas and swells generated by Douglas will impact
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument west of
Maro Reef through Wednesday. These swells may produce large
breaking waves that could inundate some of the lower-lying atolls.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas will impact portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument west of Maro Reef
through Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-07-29 09:18


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 290917
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
0900 UTC WED JUL 29 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 173.2W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 90SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 173.2W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 172.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 25.1N 176.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.8N 180.0E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 26.5N 176.0E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 173.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

2020-07-29 09:01


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 291000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 036//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 036
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290600Z --- NEAR 24.6N 172.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.6N 172.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 25.1N 176.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 25.8N 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 26.5N 176.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
291000Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 173.5W.
29JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 496
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 291600Z, 292200Z, 300400Z AND 301000Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-29 08:48


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 290846
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2020

Due to persistent southerly vertical wind shear, Douglas has
been devoid of deep convection for nearly 24 hours, and it appears
that it will soon be a post-tropical remnant low. Satellite fix
agencies are unable to determine a data-T due to the absence of
convection, and the current intensity estimate of 35 kt is primarily
based on a recently-obtained 0726Z ASCAT pass, which also indicates
what appears to be a degraded circulation. This intensity estimate
is also supported by a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 42 kt, and a
CIRA-RAMMB estimate of 39 kt, with these winds located north of the
center.

The initial motion estimate is 275/20 kt, with Douglas moving
rapidly westward to the south and southwest of a low-level ridge.
Some increase in latitude is expected as Douglas crosses the
International Date Line in about 24 hours, with the cyclone
expected to dissipate shortly thereafter. The updated track and
intensity forecast is based on regional and global model guidance,
with little change made to the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 24.6N 173.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 25.1N 176.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0600Z 25.8N 180.0E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1800Z 26.5N 176.0E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

2020-07-29 08:40


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 290839
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 36
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2020

...DOUGLAS PASSING SOUTH OF LISIANSKI AND RAPIDLY APPROACHING
THE DATE LINE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 173.2W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM SE OF MIDWAY ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Maro Reef to Lisianski

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 173.2 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue until Douglas crosses the
International Date Line in about 24 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next two days, and Douglas
is expected to dissipate shortly after crossing the Date Line.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected from Laysan Island to
Lisianski through tonight, with winds diminishing on Wednesday.

SURF: Large seas and swells generated by Douglas will impact
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument west of
Gardner Pinnacles through Wednesday. These swells may produce large
breaking waves that could inundate some of the lower-lying atolls.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas will impact portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument west of
Gardner Pinnacles through Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-07-29 08:35


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 290835
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
0900 UTC WED JUL 29 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 173.2W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 90SE 90SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 173.2W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 172.1W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 25.1N 176.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.8N 180.0E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 26.5N 176.0E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 173.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 29/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

2020-07-29 06:02


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 290602 CCA
TCPCP2

BULLETIN...CORRECTED
Tropical Storm Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
802 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2020

...WEAKENING DOUGLAS PASSING SOUTH OF LAYSAN ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 172.1W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF MIDWAY ISLAND
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Maro Reef to Lisianski

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 172.1 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Douglas
is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low within the next
6 to 12 hours, then dissipate shortly thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected from Laysan Island to
Lisianski through tonight.

SURF: Large seas and swells generated by Douglas will impact the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through tonight. These
swells may produce large breaking waves that could inundate some
of the lower-lying atolls.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas will impact portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-07-29 05:57


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 290557
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
800 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2020

...WEAKENING DOUGLAS PASSING SOUTH OF LAYSAN ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 172.1W
ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SE OF MIDWAY ISLAND
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM W OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef
has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Maro Reef to Lisianski

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 hours.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 172.1 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Douglas
is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low within the next
6 to 12 hours, then dissipate shortly thereafter.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected from Laysan Island to
Lisianski through tonight.

SURF: Large seas and swells generated by Douglas will impact the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through tonight. These
swells may produce large breaking waves that could inundate some
of the lower-lying atolls.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas will impact portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-07-29 03:01


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 290400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 035 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 035
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
290000Z --- NEAR 24.5N 170.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 170.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 24.9N 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 25.5N 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 26.3N 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 27.3N 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 28.4N 170.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
290400Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 171.2W. 29JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 08E
(DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 469 NM NORTH OF JOHNSTON ISLAND, HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 291000Z, 291600Z, 292200Z AND 300400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-29 02:37


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 290235
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2020

With no associated deep convection, Douglas continues to drive
westward across the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument far
northwest of the main Hawaiian Islands. While the clearly defined
low level circulation center (LLCC) has passed just west of Maro
Reef, waters from Maro Reef to French Frigate Shoals continue to
lie within the tropical storm force radius. The Tropical Storm
Warning for those waters therefore remains in effect. The Tropical
Storm Warning for waters from Maro Reef to Lisianski also
remains in effect. However, the Tropical Storm Watch for waters
from Lisianski to Pearl and Hermes Atoll has been cancelled.

Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates for Douglas range
from 2.0/30 kts, from HFO and JTWC, to too weak to classify from
SAB. UW-CIMSS ADT was 43 kt. A late morning ASCAT pass showed a
broad swath of 35 to 40 kt wind barbs within the north semicircle.
Based on all of this, intensity remains set at 40 kt for this
forecast package.

Initial motion is 285/18 kt, representing a gradual shift to the
west compared to the 290/17 kt 12 hour motion. Douglas has sped up
a bit as steering is now completely low level. This system
continues to track generally westward to the south of a low to mid
level ridge. Once again, the forecast track is quite close to the
last one, closely matching UEMI along the northern portion of the
tightly packed guidance envelope through 24 hours, then gradually
shifting to the center of the envelope afterwards through system
dissipation at 72 hours. As Douglas remains deep convection-free
after 18 hours and will not recover as a tropical system, the only
question of interest is when will transition to a post-tropical
remnant low begin. Global models keep a weak remnant circulation
alive at the surface, with little or no reflection above 700 mb, all
the way through 72 hours as it begins to merge with a frontal system
west of the dateline. On the other hand, DSHP unrealistically keeps
Douglas at 45 to 50 kt through 120 hours. Given the deteriorating
satellite presentation and the increasing time with no deep
convection, we will tilt toward the global models and make Douglas a
post-tropical remnant low in 12 hours but delay system dissipation
to 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 24.6N 170.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 24.9N 173.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 30/0000Z 25.5N 177.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 30/1200Z 26.3N 178.4E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 31/0000Z 27.3N 174.5E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 31/1200Z 28.4N 170.6E 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Powell

>

2020-07-29 02:34


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 290233
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 35
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2020

...DOUGLAS PASSING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE
NATIONAL MONUMENT NEAR MARO REEF...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 170.9W
ABOUT 855 MI...1380 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM W OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Tropical Storm Watch for portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Lisianski to Pearl and Hermes Atoll has been cancelled.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef to Lisianski

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 24.6 North, longitude 170.9 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Douglas is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low in 12 hours, then
dissipate in 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected from just east of Maro
Reef through Lisianski through tonight.

SURF: Large seas and swells generated by Douglas will impact the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through tonight. These
swells may produce large breaking waves that could inundate some
of the lower-lying atolls.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas will impact portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell


>

2020-07-29 02:33


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 290232
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
0300 UTC WED JUL 29 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
LISIANSKI TO PEARL AND HERMES ATOLL HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 170.9W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 170.9W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 170.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 24.9N 173.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 25.5N 177.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.3N 178.4E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 27.3N 174.5E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 28.4N 170.6E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 170.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 29/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL



>

2020-07-28 23:49


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 282349
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
200 PM HST Tue Jul 28 2020

...DOUGLAS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 169.9W
ABOUT 800 MI...1285 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM WNW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef to Lisianski

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Lisianski to Pearl and Hermes Atoll

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 169.9 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Dissipation is forecast within 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread from French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef, including Gardner Pinnacles, today and
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are then expected over the area
from Maro Reef to Lisianski, including Laysan, later tonight into
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the area
from Lisianski to Pearl and Hermes Atoll on Wednesday.

SURF: Large seas and swells generated by Douglas will impact a
large swath of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument the
next day or two. These swells will produce large breaking waves
that could inundate some of the lower-lying atolls.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas will impact portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell


>

2020-07-28 21:00


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 282200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 034//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 034
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281800Z --- NEAR 24.3N 167.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.3N 167.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 24.9N 171.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 25.4N 175.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 26.0N 179.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 27.0N 176.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 28.0N 172.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
282200Z POSITION NEAR 24.5N 168.9W.
28JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 462
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BARKING SANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 290400Z, 291000Z, 291600Z AND 292200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-28 20:38


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 282036
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 28 2020

There has been no deep convection associated with the low level
circulation center (LLCC) of Douglas for over 6 hours, leaving the
LLCC completely exposed and easy to track. Thanks to persistent 25
kt of southwesterly vertical wind shear, the closest deep
convection has been displaced over 100 nm to the northeast. Time as
a tropical cyclone is short for this system as it continues to track
west northwestward, spreading tropical storm force winds through
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument far northwest of the
main Hawaiian Islands.

Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates range from 2.0/30
kt, from HFO and SAB, to 2.5/35 kt from JTWC. UW-CIMSS ADT is 39
kt. An ASCAT pass last evening reasonably justified a 45 kt strength
6 hours ago, but Douglas is likely weaker than that now. Douglas
was a category 1 hurricane slightly more than 24 hours ago, so some
constraint must be applied in the drive to weaken this system.
Given all these factors, initial intensity is set at 40 kt for this
forecast cycle.

Initial motion is 290/16 kt, part of a long term trend as Douglas
moves west northwestward along the southern flank of a low to mid-
level ridge. The forecast track is very close to the previous one,
tracing a shallow arc along GEMI and HCCA in the middle of the
tight guidance envelope. Vertical shear is forecast to decrease
while SST rises modestly along the forecast track but, without deep
convection, Douglas will not recover as a tropical system. However,
global models maintain a circulation center through 60 hours,
suggesting a prolonged life as a post-tropical remnant low before
total dissipation somewhere west of the dateline. For this forecast
cycle, Douglas is generously given another 24 hours as a weakening
tropical cyclone, followed by transition to a post tropical remnant
low at 36 hours just within the Central North Pacific.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 24.5N 168.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 24.9N 171.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 25.4N 175.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 26.0N 179.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/1800Z 27.0N 176.7E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 31/0600Z 28.0N 172.8E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Powell

>

2020-07-28 20:34


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 282033
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 34
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 28 2020

...DOUGLAS GRADUALLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES THROUGH
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 168.6W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WNW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef to Lisianski

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Lisianski to Pearl and Hermes Atoll

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 168.6 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Dissipation is
forecast at 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread from French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef, including Gardner Pinnacles, today and
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are then expected over the area
from Maro Reef to Lisianski, including Laysan, later tonight into
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the area
from Lisianski to Pearl and Hermes Atoll on Wednesday.

SURF: Large seas and swells generated by Douglas will impact a
large swath of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument the
next day or two. These swells will produce large breaking waves
that could inundate some of the lower-lying atolls.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas will impact portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell


>

2020-07-28 20:32


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 282031
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
2100 UTC TUE JUL 28 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
LISIANSKI TO PEARL AND HERMES ATOLL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 168.6W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......110NE 0SE 0SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 168.6W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 167.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.9N 171.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 25.4N 175.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 26.0N 179.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 27.0N 176.7E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 28.0N 172.8E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 168.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 29/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL



>

2020-07-28 17:42


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 281742
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
800 AM HST Tue Jul 28 2020

...DOUGLAS WEAKENING BUT BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 167.7W
ABOUT 660 MI...1060 KM NW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM NW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef to Lisianski

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Lisianski to Pearl and Hermes Atoll

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 167.7 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and
Douglas is expected to dissipate in 72 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread from French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef, including Gardner Pinnacles, today and
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are then expected over the area
from Maro Reef to Lisianski, including Laysan, later tonight into
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the area
from Lisianski to Pearl and Hermes Atoll on Wednesday.

SURF: Large seas and swells generated by Douglas will impact a
large swath of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument the
next day or two. These swells will produce large breaking waves
that could inundate some of the lower-lying atolls.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas will impact portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell


>

2020-07-28 14:57


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 281600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 033//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 033
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
281200Z --- NEAR 23.8N 165.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 165.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.4N 169.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 25.0N 173.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 25.4N 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 26.1N 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 27.6N 174.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
281600Z POSITION NEAR 24.0N 166.9W.
28JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 640
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 282200Z, 290400Z, 291000Z AND 291600Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-28 14:49


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 281448
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 AM HST Tue Jul 28 2020

The low-level circulation center (LLCC) of Douglas remains exposed
in infrared satellite imagery. The limited deep convection that
remains is sheared well north of the center, due to persistent
debilitating southwesterly vertical wind shear. With current trends,
Douglas' time as a tropical cyclone appears to be limited. However,
given that it was a strong category one hurricane just 24 hours
ago, the cyclone is still producing tropical-storm-force winds over
portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument as it
spins down. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates ranged
from 2.5/35 kt from HFO and SAB to 3.0/45 kt from PGTW, while a
0746Z ASCAT pass detected winds up to 40 kt in the northern
semicircle. Assuming some undersampling by the ASCAT, the initial
intensity estimate for this advisory is 45 kt, with these winds
confined to the northern semicircle.

Now that Douglas is devoid of deep convection, the cyclone has
accelerated, and the initial motion estimate for this advisory is
290/16 kt. The LLCC is expected to continue moving quickly west-
northwest to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge, while a low
aloft to the west maintains the vertical wind shear. With deep
convection unlikely to persist over the center of Douglas,
dissipation is anticipated within 72 hours, with Douglas becoming a
post-tropical remnant low within 48 hours at the latest. The updated
track and intensity forecasts rely heavily on global model guidance
that depict Douglas dissipating as it nears and crosses the Date
Line.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 24.1N 166.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR FRENCH FRIGATE
12H 29/0000Z 24.4N 169.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 25.0N 173.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 25.4N 177.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 26.1N 178.4E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 31/0000Z 27.6N 174.5E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

2020-07-28 14:40


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 281439
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 33
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 AM HST Tue Jul 28 2020

...DOUGLAS WEAKENING BUT BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 166.6W
ABOUT 585 MI...945 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM NW OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Tropical Storm Watch for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument from Maro Reef to Lisianski has been
upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Lisianski to Pearl
and Hermes Atoll.

The Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals has
been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef to Lisianski

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Lisianski to Pearl and Hermes Atoll

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 24.1 North, longitude 166.6 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and Douglas is
expected to dissipate by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread from French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef, including Gardner Pinnacles, today and
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are then expected over the area
from Maro Reef to Lisianski, including Laysan, later tonight into
Wednesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible over the area
from Lisianski to Pearl and Hermes Atoll on Wednesday.

SURF: Large seas and swells generated by Douglas will impact a
large swath of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument the
next day or two. These swells will produce large breaking waves
that could inundate some of the lower-lying atolls.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas will impact portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument through Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-07-28 14:39


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 281438
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
1500 UTC TUE JUL 28 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM LISIANSKI TO PEARL
AND HERMES ATOLL.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS HAS
BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
LISIANSKI TO PEARL AND HERMES ATOLL

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 166.6W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 166.6W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 165.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.4N 169.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.0N 173.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 25.4N 177.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.1N 178.4E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 27.6N 174.5E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 166.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 28/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

2020-07-28 11:54


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 281154
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
200 AM HST Tue Jul 28 2020

...DOUGLAS WEAKENING BUT BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 165.7W
ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM E OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea National Marine Monument from
Maro Reef to Lisianski

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions
are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the
next 12 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 165.7 West. Douglas
is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and
Douglas is expected to dissipate by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: The center of Douglas will pass very close to French Frigate
Shoals this morning, bringing tropical storm conditions. Tropical
storm conditions are then expected to spread from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef, including Gardner Pinnacles, later today and
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible from Maro Reef to
Lisianski later tonight into Wednesday.

SURF: Large seas and swells generated by Douglas will impact a
large swath of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument the
next day or two. These swells will produce large breaking waves
that could inundate some of the lower-lying atolls.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas will impact portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next couple
of days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-07-28 09:00


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 280858
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 27 2020

Douglas finally relented to persistent south to southwest vertical
wind shear earlier today, when the low-level circulation center
became exposed in visible satellite imagery. Convection has been
limited to the northern semicircle since, and detached well away
from the center, leading to a rapid weakening trend over the past
24 hours. Subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates for this
advisory ranged from 3.0/45 kt from HFO/SAB and 3.5/55 kt from
PGTW. Meanwhile, the multi-platform satellite surface wind analysis
from RAMMB-CIRA suggested maximum winds up to 56 kt, albeit limited
to the northern semicircle. A conservative blend of these estimates
yields an initial intensity estimate of 50 kt.

The initial motion for this advisory is 285/12 kt, with Douglas
being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the north. As
significant convection is not expected to be able to persist over
the center, Douglas will become increasingly shallow the next
day or two, degenerating to a post-tropical remnant low as it
gradually spins down. The updated intensity forecast is close to
HWRF guidance. As it weakens, dynamical global guidance indicates
that Douglas will accelerate toward the west-northwest, and the
official forecast follows suit.

NDBC buoys 51001 and 51101 reported peak wave heights near 20 feet
and sustained winds near 31 kt earlier today, verifying GFS- and
ECWMF-based wave model guidance, which indicated peak values near
21 feet in the same area. This data also led to a slight expansion
of the gale radii in the northeast quadrant.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 23.4N 164.7W 50 KT 60 MPH...NEAR NECKER ISLAND
12H 28/1800Z 23.8N 167.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 24.3N 171.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 24.7N 175.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 25.6N 179.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/1800Z 26.5N 177.0E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

2020-07-28 08:56


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 281000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 032//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 032
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280600Z --- NEAR 23.2N 164.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 164.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.8N 167.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 24.3N 171.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 24.7N 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 25.6N 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 26.5N 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
281000Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 165.2W.
28JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281600Z, 282200Z, 290400Z AND 291000Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-28 08:45


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 280844
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 32
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 27 2020

...DOUGLAS WEAKENING BUT BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 164.7W
ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ESE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea National Marine Monument from
Maro Reef to Lisianski

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions
are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the
next to 24 to 36 hours.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 164.7 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A more
rapid motion toward the west-northwest is expected Tuesday and
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, and
Douglas is expected to dissipate by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: The center of Douglas will pass very close to Necker Island
and French Frigate Shoals overnight, bringing tropical storm
conditions. Tropical storm conditions are expected from French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef Tuesday and Tuesday night. Tropical
storm conditions are possible from Maro Reef to Lisianski Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

SURF: Large seas and swells generated by Douglas will impact a
large swath of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument the
next day or two. These swells will produce large breaking waves
that could inundate some of the lower-lying atolls.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas will impact portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next couple
of days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-07-28 08:37


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 280837
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
0900 UTC TUE JUL 28 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT FROM
MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT TO 24 TO 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 164.7W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 10SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 40SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 164.7W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 164.1W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.8N 167.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.3N 171.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.7N 175.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.6N 179.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 26.5N 177.0E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 164.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 28/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

2020-07-28 05:55


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 280555
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
800 PM HST Mon Jul 27 2020

...DOUGLAS WEAKENING BUT BRINGING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 164.1W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM ESE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.5 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea National Marine Monument from
Maro Reef to Lisianski

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions
are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the
next to 24 to 36 hours.



DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 164.1 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast over the next couple of days, with
Douglas expected to become a remnant low in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.5 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: The center of Douglas will pass very close to Necker Island
and French Frigate Shoals overnight, bringing tropical storm
conditions. Tropical storm conditions are expected from French
Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef Tuesday and Tuesday night. Tropical
storm conditions are possible from Maro Reef to Lisianski Tuesday
night and Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas will impact a large swath of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument the next couple of
days. These swells will produce large breaking waves that could
inundate some of the lower-lying atolls.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas will impact portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next couple
of days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-07-28 04:03


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 280403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 12.7N 49.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.07.2020 0 12.7N 49.3W 1010 26
1200UTC 28.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 23.0N 162.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.07.2020 0 23.0N 162.7W 1002 50
1200UTC 28.07.2020 12 23.4N 165.7W 1009 38
0000UTC 29.07.2020 24 24.1N 169.5W 1013 35
1200UTC 29.07.2020 36 24.5N 173.6W 1014 33
0000UTC 30.07.2020 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.5N 60.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.07.2020 36 15.5N 60.0W 1008 35
0000UTC 30.07.2020 48 16.7N 62.4W 1006 39
1200UTC 30.07.2020 60 17.9N 64.7W 1004 45
0000UTC 31.07.2020 72 18.0N 67.3W 1003 46
1200UTC 31.07.2020 84 19.4N 69.8W 1005 40
0000UTC 01.08.2020 96 20.5N 72.2W 1006 37
1200UTC 01.08.2020 108 21.1N 74.7W 1007 31
0000UTC 02.08.2020 120 22.0N 75.8W 1008 30
1200UTC 02.08.2020 132 22.7N 77.1W 1009 25
0000UTC 03.08.2020 144 23.6N 77.9W 1009 22


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280402

>

2020-07-28 03:03


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 280400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 031//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 031
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 08E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 22.9N 162.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 162.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.2N 165.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 23.5N 169.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.9N 173.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.2N 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 24.8N 178.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 25.6N 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
280400Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 163.8W.
28JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180
NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF BARKING SANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
280000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 281000Z, 281600Z, 282200Z AND
290400Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-28 02:42


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 280240
TCDCP2

Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 PM HST Mon Jul 27 2020

The satellite presentation for Douglas shows an exposed low level
circulation center (LLCC), with deep convection limited to the
north quadrant. Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates
range from 3.5/55 kt, from SAB and HFO, to 4.0/65 kt from JTWC.
UW-CIMSS ADT is 58 kt. Given these estimates and the continued
degradation noted in satellite imagery, Douglas is assigned an
initial intensity of 60 kt, making this system a tropical storm once
again. The degraded satellite imagery is driven by continued 20 to
25 kt southwesterly wind shear which will remain a factor in this
system's future for the next 36 to 48 hours. Initial motion is
270/15, representing a persistent 12 hour westerly motion noted
since the LLCC became exposed this morning. However since fix time,
a slight northward component has been detected.

Douglas continues to be steered by a deep ridge to its north and
the expectation is for this system to continue on a west to west
northwest track through the remainder of its life. Wind shear is
forecast to decrease somewhat after 48 hours, but global models in
particular give Douglas no chance for redevelopment. The forecast
track for Douglas is quite close to the previous one, falling
within the southern third of the guidance envelope through 48 hours
between HWRF and HMNI. This envelope is rather tight through 72
hours, after which Douglas is forecast to dissipate.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 22.9N 163.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 23.2N 165.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 23.5N 169.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 23.9N 173.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 24.2N 177.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/1200Z 24.8N 178.3E 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 25.6N 174.2E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Powell

>

2020-07-28 02:37


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 280236
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 31
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 PM HST Mon Jul 27 2020

...WEAKENING DOUGLAS CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 163.3W
ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM WNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM ESE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

All Hurricane Watches and Warnings for the Papahanaumokuakea
National Monument have been cancelled.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea National Marine Monument from
Maro Reef to Lisianski

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea National Marine Monument from
Maro Reef to Lisianski

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions
are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the
next to 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 163.3 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue into Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast through Wednesday. Douglas is
now a tropical storm.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm force winds are expected over portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef Tuesday and Tuesday night.
Tropical storm conditions are possible from Maro Reef to Lisianski
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas will impact a large swath of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument the next couple of
days. These swells will produce large breaking waves that could
inundate some of the lower-lying atolls.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas will impact portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next couple
of days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell


>

2020-07-28 02:34


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 280234
TCMCP2

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
0300 UTC TUE JUL 28 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL HURRICANE WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
NATIONAL MONUMENT HAVE BEEN CANCELLED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT FROM
MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA NATIONAL MARINE MONUMENT FROM
MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT TO 36 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 163.3W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 163.3W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 162.8W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.2N 165.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.5N 169.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 23.9N 173.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.2N 177.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 10SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.8N 178.3E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 10SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.6N 174.2E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 163.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 28/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL



>

2020-07-27 23:51


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 272350
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 30A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
200 PM HST Mon Jul 27 2020

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 162.7W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SSE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Maro Reef to Lisianski

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions
are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the
next to 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 162.7 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast through Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane force winds are expected over portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals later today and tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef
Tuesday and Tuesday night, with hurricane conditions possible.
Tropical storm conditions are possible from Maro Reef to Lisianski
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas will impact a large swath of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument the next couple of
days. These swells will produce large breaking waves that could
inundate some of the lower-lying atolls.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas will impact portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next couple
of days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell


>

2020-07-27 21:18


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 272200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 030//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 030
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 23.0N 161.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 161.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.1N 165.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.5N 169.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 23.8N 173.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 24.3N 176.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.9N 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 25.2N 175.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
272200Z POSITION NEAR 23.0N 162.9W.
27JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 121 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF BARKING SANDS, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS
21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280400Z, 281000Z, 281600Z AND 282200Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-27 20:50


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 272049
TCDCP2

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2020

Douglas is experiencing noticeable wind shear this morning, with
deep convection limited to the northeast quadrant of the
circulation. Satellite presentation continues to erode, with the
low level circulation center just inside the southwest edge of this
deep convection, leaving the rest of the circulation exposed.
Initial six hour motion is 270/17 kt, reflecting either a 12Z
motion which was too slow or stronger low level steering as this
system decouples. This motion is slightly left of the previous
forecast track and was incorporated into the reasoning for the
current track.

Subjective Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from all the
national centers are 4.0/65 knots, while UW-CIMSS ADT is 61 knots.
Given these estimates and the gradual deterioration in satellite
presentation overnight, initial intensity is set at 70 kt, a
decrease in 10 kt from the last package.

Douglas continues to be steered by a deep ridge to its north and
the expectation is for this system to continue on a west to west
northwest track through the remainder of its life. With 20 to 25 kt
of shear forecast through 48 hours, significant weakening is also
expected. The updated track forecast is slightly to the left of the
previous one, given short term motion. This is still within the
northern portion of the guidance envelope, closest to the HCCA
consensus track. Like last time, the intensity forecast leans
heavily on the dynamical models, anticipating a fairly rapid rate
of weakening.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 23.0N 162.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 23.1N 165.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 23.5N 169.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 23.8N 173.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 24.3N 176.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0600Z 24.9N 179.3E 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 25.2N 175.3E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Powell

>

2020-07-27 20:46


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 272045
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 30
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2020

...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 162.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM WNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM WNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Maro Reef to Lisianski

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions
are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the
next to 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 162.2 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west near 20 mph (31 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast through Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane force winds are expected over portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals later today and tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef
Tuesday and Tuesday night, with hurricane conditions possible.
Tropical storm conditions are possible from Maro Reef to Lisianski
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas will impact a large swath of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument the next couple of
days. These swells will produce large breaking waves that could
inundate some of the lower-lying atolls.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas will impact portions of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument over the next couple
of days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell


>

2020-07-27 20:42


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 272041
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
2100 UTC MON JUL 27 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT TO 36 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 162.2W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 162.2W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 161.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.1N 165.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.5N 169.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.8N 173.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.3N 176.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 10SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 24.9N 179.3E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.2N 175.3E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 162.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 28/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER POWELL



>

2020-07-27 17:53


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 271753
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 29A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
800 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2020

...HURRICANE DOUGLAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.0N 161.3W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM NW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM ESE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Maro Reef to Lisianski

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions
are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the
next to 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 161.3 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion will continue the next couple of days, with a slight
turn toward the west.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane force winds are expected over portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals later today and tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef
Tuesday and Tuesday night, with hurricane conditions possible.
Tropical storm conditions are possible from Maro Reef to Lisianski
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas will impact a large swath of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument the next couple of
days. These swells will produce large breaking waves that could
inundate some of the lower-lying atolls.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands today. Total rain
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts are
possible, with the greatest rainfall in elevated terrain on Kauai.
This rain may result in flash flooding and land slides, as well as
rapid water level rises on small streams. Heavy rainfall will also
impact portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
the next couple of days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Powell


>

2020-07-27 16:04


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 271603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 102.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2020 0 25.2N 102.4W 1008 19
0000UTC 28.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 44.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2020 0 11.4N 44.7W 1009 26
0000UTC 28.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 22.4N 159.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2020 0 22.4N 159.8W 1006 38
0000UTC 28.07.2020 12 22.8N 162.9W 1008 40
1200UTC 28.07.2020 24 23.1N 166.4W 1012 35
0000UTC 29.07.2020 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.0N 55.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.07.2020 36 15.0N 55.5W 1007 37
1200UTC 29.07.2020 48 16.2N 58.1W 1006 40
0000UTC 30.07.2020 60 17.3N 61.1W 1003 47
1200UTC 30.07.2020 72 18.2N 64.4W 1001 47
0000UTC 31.07.2020 84 18.9N 67.3W 1000 47
1200UTC 31.07.2020 96 19.9N 69.8W 1001 43
0000UTC 01.08.2020 108 20.9N 72.4W 1000 44
1200UTC 01.08.2020 120 21.8N 74.8W 1002 41
0000UTC 02.08.2020 132 22.7N 76.3W 1002 40
1200UTC 02.08.2020 144 23.8N 77.3W 1004 37


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271603

>

2020-07-27 16:04


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 271603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION HANNA ANALYSED POSITION : 25.2N 102.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.07.2020 25.2N 102.4W WEAK
00UTC 28.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 44.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.07.2020 11.4N 44.7W WEAK
00UTC 28.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 22.4N 159.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.07.2020 22.4N 159.8W WEAK
00UTC 28.07.2020 22.8N 162.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.07.2020 23.1N 166.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.0N 55.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.07.2020 15.0N 55.5W WEAK
12UTC 29.07.2020 16.2N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2020 17.3N 61.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.07.2020 18.2N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.07.2020 18.9N 67.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.07.2020 19.9N 69.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.08.2020 20.9N 72.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.08.2020 21.8N 74.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.08.2020 22.7N 76.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.08.2020 23.8N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271603

>

2020-07-27 15:37


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 271600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 029//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 029
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 22.7N 159.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 159.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.3N 163.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.7N 166.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.1N 170.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 24.5N 174.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 25.0N 178.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.6N 178.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
271600Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 160.7W.
27JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 42 NM
NORTH OF BARKING SANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272200Z, 280400Z, 281000Z AND 281600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-27 14:54


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 271453
TCDCP2

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2020

Hurricane Hunters from the Air Force's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance
Squadron completed their final mission into Douglas a couple
of hours ago, and the team at the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
is extremely grateful for their unwavering support. Although the
later passes didn't find winds as strong as the initial passes of
the mission, the central pressure remained steady. Additionally,
Douglas' satellite appearance has changed little since the last
center penetration, and the initial intensity for this advisory has
been maintained at 80 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 290/15 kt, with Douglas primarily
being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge centered to the north of
the cyclone. In the upper levels, Douglas lies between a ridge to
the east and a trough to the west, and has been hanging tough in an
environment characterized by significant southerly vertical wind
shear. The expectation is that this debilitating wind shear will
persist over the cyclone for the next couple of days, with
significant weakening occurring as the cyclone gets sheared apart.
The increasingly shallow system is then expected to be steered
toward the west until dissipation occurs in a couple of days. The
updated track forecast is close to the previous, as well as most of
the reliable dynamical model guidance. The intensity forecast also
leans more heavily on the dynamical models, and anticipates that a
fairly rapid rate of weakening will soon commence.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 22.9N 160.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 23.3N 163.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 23.7N 166.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 24.1N 170.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 24.5N 174.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 30/0000Z 25.0N 178.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 25.6N 178.1E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

2020-07-27 14:39


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 271438
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 29
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2020

...HURRICANE DOUGLAS MOVING AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 160.4W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM NW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM ESE OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Tropical Storm Warning for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals has
been upgraded to a Hurricane Warning.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Maro Reef to
Lisianski.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Maro Reef to Lisianski

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions
are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible somewhere within the watch area, in this case within the
next to 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 160.4 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
general motion will continue the next couple of days, with a slight
turn toward the west.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane force winds are expected over portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals later today and tonight. Tropical storm
conditions are expected from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef
Tuesday and Tuesday night, with hurricane conditions possible.
Tropical storm conditions are possible from Maro Reef to Lisianski
Tuesday night and Wednesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas will impact a large swath of
the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument the next couple of
days. These swells will produce large breaking waves that could
inundate some of the lower-lying atolls.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands today. Total rain
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts are
possible, with the greatest rainfall in elevated terrain on Kauai.
This rain may result in flash flooding and land slides, as well as
rapid water level rises on small streams. Heavy rainfall will also
impact portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument
the next couple of days.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

2020-07-27 14:38


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 271437
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
1500 UTC MON JUL 27 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS HAS
BEEN UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE WARNING.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM MARO REEF TO
LISIANSKI.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
MARO REEF TO LISIANSKI

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT TO 36 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 160.4W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 25SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 40SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 160.4W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 159.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.3N 163.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.7N 166.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.1N 170.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 24.5N 174.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 10SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 25.0N 178.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 25.6N 178.1E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 160.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 27/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

2020-07-27 11:59


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 271159
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 28A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
200 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2020

...HURRICANE DOUGLAS MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM KAUAI...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 159.6W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM NNW OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM NW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Hurricane Warning for Kauai County, which includes the islands
of Kauai and Niihau, has been canceled.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 36 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located by Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.8 North,
longitude 159.6 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-northwest
near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion is expected to continue
for the next couple of days, with a slight turn to the west and an
increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Douglas
will remain a hurricane until it passes west of Kauai.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas will affect the Hawaiian
Islands today, producing life-threatening and potentially
damaging surf along exposed shores.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands today. Total rain
accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher amounts are
possible, with the greatest rainfall in elevated terrain on Kauai.
This rain may result in flash flooding and land slides, as well as
rapid water level rises on small streams.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston/Birchard


>

2020-07-27 10:15


Original Message :

WTPA62 PHFO 271012
TCUCP2

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1211 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2020

...1200 AM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...HURRICANE DOUGLAS PASSING BY JUST TO THE NORTH OF KAUAI...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the Molokai radar
as it moves toward the west-northwest just north of Kauai. A
Hurricane Hunter aircraft, which is currently flying in Douglas,
indicated it had intensified slightly earlier this evening. The
Hurricane Hunters will continue to provide valuable data as Douglas
moves away from the Molokai radar, and it will be poorly sampled by
the Kauai radar. Therefore, this will be the last Tropical Cyclone
Update based on radar data. Note that there will be an Intermediate
Public Advisory issued at 200 AM HST, followed by the next Complete
Public Advisory at 500 AM HST.

SUMMARY OF 1200 AM HST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.7N 159.2W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM NW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...145 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Houston/Birchard

>

2020-07-27 09:41


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 271000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 028
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270600Z --- NEAR 22.3N 158.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.3N 158.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 23.2N 161.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.7N 165.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.1N 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 24.3N 172.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 24.5N 175.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 25.0N 179.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 26.5N 173.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
271000Z POSITION NEAR 22.6N 159.3W.
27JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 85 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF BARKING SANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271600Z, 272200Z, 280400Z AND 281000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-27 08:59


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 270858
TCDCP2

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

Hurricane Hunters from the Air Force's 53rd Weather Reconnaissance
Squadron have again been flying around and through Douglas since
sunset this evening, and have found the cyclone to be a little
stronger than earlier today. Maximum flight level winds were
between 90 and 100 kt, with a peak of 103 kt recently reported. Peak
SFMR winds ranged from 75 to 85 kt, while the central pressure has
been pretty steady, and close to the value used in the previous
advisory. Based on the preponderance of evidence, the initial
intensity for this advisory was conservatively increased to 80 kt.
This indicates a slight strengthening trend, despite what appears to
be a hostile environment characterized by southerly vertical wind
shear.

The initial motion estimate is 290/14 kt, with Douglas primarily
being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge centered to the north of
the cyclone. In the upper levels, Douglas lies between a ridge to
the east and a trough to the west, in an environment characterized
by southerly vertical wind shear. The expectation is that this
debilitating wind shear will persist over the cyclone over the next
couple of days, leading to de-coupling of the lower and upper
levels of the cyclone, and subsequent weakening. The increasingly
shallow system is then expected to be steered toward the west at an
increased forward speed until dissipation occurs in a couple of
days. The updated track forecast is close to a fairly tightly
clustered suite of dynamical model guidance. The intensity
forecast also leans more heavily on the dynamical models, and
anticipates a fairly rapid rate of weakening west of the main
Hawaiian Islands.

Key Messages

1. Douglas will pass just north of Kauai tonight, producing locally
strong and potentially damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and
dangerously high surf, especially along north and east facing
shores. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of
the wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 22.5N 158.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 23.2N 161.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 23.7N 165.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 24.1N 168.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 24.3N 172.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 24.5N 175.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 25.0N 179.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 26.5N 173.0E 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

2020-07-27 08:36


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 270835
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 28
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...HURRICANE DOUGLAS A LITTLE STRONGER AS IT PULLS AWAY FROM
OAHU AND SKIRTS NORTH OF KAUAI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 158.8W
ABOUT 50 MI...85 KM NE OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM NW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Hurricane Warning for Oahu has been canceled.

The Tropical Storm Watch for portions of the Papahanaumokuakea
Marine National Monument from French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef
has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
6 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 158.8 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days,
with a slight turn to the west and an increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Douglas
will remain a hurricane until it passes west of Kauai.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected across northern portions
of Kauai tonight. Due to the steep terrain of the islands,
localized strong wind gusts are expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas will affect the Hawaiian
Islands tonight, producing life-threatening and potentially
damaging surf along exposed shores.

RAINFALL: Rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands into Monday.
Total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher
amounts are possible, with the greatest rainfall in elevated
terrain on Kauai. This rain may result in flash flooding and land
slides, as well as rapid water level rises on small streams.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-07-27 08:34


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 270834
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
0900 UTC MON JUL 27 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR OAHU HAS BEEN CANCELED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA
MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF
HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
6 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 158.8W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 50SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 120SE 120SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 158.8W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 158.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 23.2N 161.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.7N 165.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 24.1N 168.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.3N 172.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 10SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.5N 175.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 25.0N 179.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 26.5N 173.0E...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 158.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 27/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

2020-07-27 08:11


Original Message :

WTPA62 PHFO 270808
TCUCP2

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1097 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...1000 PM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS LOCATED EAST-NORTHEAST OF KAUAI
INTENSIFIES SLIGHTLY ...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the Molokai radar
as the tropical cyclone moves west-northwestward just north of the
western end of the main Hawaiian Island chain. A Hurricane Hunter
aircraft, which is currently flying in Douglas, indicates it has
intensified slightly during the past few hours. In addition, the
radar and aircraft are showing short-term wobbles in the forward
motion of the tropical cyclone. The Hurricane Hunter's will
continue to provide valuable data as Douglas moves away from the
Molokai radar, and it will be poorly sampled by the Kauai radar.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM HST...0800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 158.6W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF LIHUE HAWAII
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...145 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Houston/Birchard

>

2020-07-27 07:13


Original Message :

WTPA62 PHFO 270710
TCUCP2

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
910 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...900 PM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS PASSING JUST NORTH OF OAHU AND
APPROACHING KAUAI...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the Molokai radar
as the tropical cyclone moves west-northwest just north of Oahu. A
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently flying in Douglas, and will
continue to provide valuable data as Douglas moves away from the
Molokai radar, and will be poorly sampled by the Kauai radar.

SUMMARY OF 900 PM HST...0700 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.3N 158.3W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM NNW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ENE OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Houston/Birchard

>

2020-07-27 06:00


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 270600
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 27A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
800 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS PASSING JUST NORTH OF OAHU AND
APPROACHING KAUAI...

SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 158.0W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM N OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM E OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to
48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located by Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 22.2 North,
longitude 158.0 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-northwest
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue over
the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Douglas will pass
near Oahu and Kauai tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Douglas is expected to remain a hurricane as it moves near Kauai
later tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of Oahu
this evening, and on Kauai later tonight. Due to the steep terrain
of the islands, localized strong wind gusts are expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas will affect the Hawaiian
Islands tonight, producing life-threatening and potentially
damaging surf along exposed shores. Storm surge of up to 2 feet is
possible. Surf will decline on Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands tonight into Monday.
Total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher
amounts are possible, with the greatest rainfall in elevated
terrain. This rain may result in flash flooding and land slides, as
well as rapid water level rises on small streams.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Houston/Birchard


>

2020-07-27 05:17


Original Message :

WTPA62 PHFO 270515
TCUCP2

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
715 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...700 PM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS PASSING JUST NORTH OF OAHU...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the Molokai radar
as the tropical cyclone moves west-northwest, just north of Oahu.
Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft is headed toward Douglas this
evening, and will soon provide valuable wind data as Douglas moves
away from the Molokai radar, and will be poorly sampled by the Kauai
radar.

SUMMARY OF 700 PM HST...0500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 157.9W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM N OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Birchard

>

2020-07-27 04:18


Original Message :

WTPA62 PHFO 270410 CCA
TCUCP2

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update...CORRECTED
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
610 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...600 PM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS PASSING JUST NORTH OF OAHU...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the Molokai WSR-88D
radar as it moves west-northwest, north of Oahu. Hurricane
Hunters from the Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron
continue to conduct missions through Douglas and have observed
Douglas experiencing southerly vertical wind shear. This has been
factored into the radar position fix below.

SUMMARY OF 600 PM HST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 157.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Birchard

>

2020-07-27 04:10


Original Message :

WTPA62 PHFO 270406
TCUCP2

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
605 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...600 PM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS PASSING JUST NORTH OF OAHU...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the Molokai WSR-88D
radar as the tropical cyclone moves west-northwest, north of Maui.
Hurricane Hunters from the Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance
Squadron continue to conduct missions through Douglas and have
observed Douglas experiencing southerly vertical wind shear. This
has been factored into the radar position fix below.

SUMMARY OF 600 PM HST...0400 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.2N 157.6W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF LIHUE HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

$$

Forecaster Birchard

>

2020-07-27 03:10


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 270400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 027
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 21.6N 156.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 156.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.5N 159.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.1N 162.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.5N 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 23.9N 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 24.1N 173.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.2N 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 25.0N 174.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 27.2N 167.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
270400Z POSITION NEAR 21.9N 157.5W.
27JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 73 NM
EAST OF CAMP H M SMITH, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 271000Z, 271600Z, 272200Z AND 280400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-27 02:57


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 270255
TCDCP2

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

In spite of increasing southerly vertical wind shear of more than
20 kt, a large burst of convection redeveloped around a ragged eye
late this afternoon. Hurricane Hunters from the Air Force 53rd
Weather Reconnaissance Squadron have departed Douglas after spending
much of the day sampling the system, and another mission is
scheduled for this evening. While the last passes through continued
to show a slow increase in central pressure, aircraft data indicated
that the winds had not changed much, and recent land-based radar
showed winds in excess of 90 kt at around 6,000 ft. As a result, the
initial intensity will be held at 75 kt for this advisory, which is
in line with the PHFO Dvorak CI of 4.5.

Of greater importance, the aircraft data and land-based radars
indicated that Douglas has taken a jog to the north today. While
the low-level ridge to the north is providing significant steering,
a weakness in the ridge aloft and increasing vertical wind shear,
mainly at higher levels, have likely caused the hurricane to make a
northward shift, resulting in an initial motion of 295/14 kt.
Douglas will continue on this general motion tonight as it passes
near Oahu and Kauai, eventually making a turn and an acceleration
toward the west late Monday through Thursday. Due to the northward
jog, the track forecast was nudged slightly to the north through
Monday and is close to the middle of a tightly clustered guidance
envelope through Thursday.

Slow weakening will continue, though Douglas will remain a
hurricane as it passes near Oahu and Kauai tonight. SSTs will slowly
increase along the forecast track, but southerly vertical wind shear
will tilt the system and disrupt the circulation aloft, leading to
gradual weakening through at least the next four days. The
intensity forecast was changed little from the prior advisory and is
near IVCN in the middle of the guidance envelope, though lower than
the statistical guidance.

The motion of Douglas has allowed the Hurricane Warning for Maui
County to be canceled. Given the close approach to both Oahu and
Kauai along with the ongoing development of deep convection, the
Hurricane Warning remains in place for Oahu and Kauai.


Key Messages

1. Douglas will pass dangerously close to Oahu and Kauai tonight,
producing a triple threat of hazards, including but not limited to
damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and dangerously high surf,
especially along east facing shores.

2. It remains important that you do not focus on the exact forecast
track of Douglas. Due to Douglas' angle of approach to the islands,
any wobble in the track could lead to drastic differences in where
the worst weather occurs. Even if the center remains offshore,
severe impacts could extend well from the center and be realized
over Oahu and Kauai.

3. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the
wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These
acceleration
areas will shift with time as Douglas passes near Oahu and Kauai.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 22.0N 157.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 22.5N 159.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR KAUAI
24H 28/0000Z 23.1N 162.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 23.5N 166.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 23.9N 170.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 29/1200Z 24.1N 173.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 24.2N 177.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 31/0000Z 25.0N 174.6E 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 27.2N 167.7E 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

2020-07-27 02:51


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 270250
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...HURRICANE DOUGLAS PASSING NORTH OF OAHU AND MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 157.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...150 KM NW OF KAHULUI HAWAII
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM NE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Hurricane Warning has been canceled for Maui County, including
the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to
48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 157.3 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Douglas will pass near Oahu and Kauai tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Douglas is expected to remain a hurricane as it moves near the
islands tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected across portions of Oahu
this evening and on Kauai tonight. Due to the steep terrain of the
islands, localized strong wind gusts are expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas will affect the Hawaiian
Islands tonight, producing life-threatening and potentially
damaging surf along exposed shores. Storm surge of up to 2 feet is
possible. Surf will decline on Monday.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands tonight into Monday.
Total rain accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with locally higher
amounts are possible, with the greatest rainfall in elevated
terrain. This rain may result in flash flooding and land slides, as
well as rapid water level rises on small streams.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe


>

2020-07-27 02:51


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 270250
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
0300 UTC MON JUL 27 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING
THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI AND KAHOOLAWE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
18 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 157.3W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 35NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 55NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT.......100NE 40SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..190NE 100SE 125SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 157.3W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 156.5W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.5N 159.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 23.1N 162.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.5N 166.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 25SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.9N 170.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 10SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 24.1N 173.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 10SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.2N 177.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 65NE 10SE 0SW 65NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 25.0N 174.6E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 27.2N 167.7E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 157.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 27/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE



>

2020-07-27 02:04


Original Message :

WTPA62 PHFO 270202
TCUCP2

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
400 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...400 PM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS PASSING NORTH OF MAUI...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the Molokai WSR-88D
radar as the tropical cyclone moves west-northwest, north of Maui.
Hurricane Hunters from the Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance
Squadron continue to conduct missions through Douglas and have
observed Douglas experiencing southerly vertical wind shear. This
has been factored into the radar position fix below.

SUMMARY OF 400 PM HST...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 156.9W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM NNW OF KAHULUI HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

$$

Forecaster M Ballard

>

2020-07-27 01:08


Original Message :

WTPA62 PHFO 270106
TCUCP2

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
300 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...300 PM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS PASSING NORTH OF MAUI...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone
moves west-northwest, north of Maui. Hurricane Hunters from the Air
Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron continue to conduct
missions through Douglas and have observed Douglas experiencing
southerly vertical wind shear. This has been factored into the radar
position fix below.

SUMMARY OF 300 PM HST...0100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.7N 156.6W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF KAHULUI HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES

$$

Forecaster M Ballard

>

2020-07-26 23:58


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 262358
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
200 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS PASSING NORTH OF MAUI...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 156.4W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM N OF KAHULUI HAWAII
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Tropical Storm Warning has been canceled for Hawaii County.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
18 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to
48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 21.6 North, longitude 156.4 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Douglas will pass near, or over, the islands from
Maui to Kauai through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Douglas is expected to remain a hurricane as it moves through the
islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of Maui County
today, on Oahu by late this afternoon, and on Kauai tonight. Due to
the steep terrain of the islands, hurricane-force wind gusts are
possible even within the tropical storm warning area.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas will affect the Hawaiian
Islands into Monday, producing life-threatening and potentially
damaging surf along exposed shores.

STORM SURGE: The combination of higher than predicted water
levels, dangerous storm surge, and large breaking waves will raise
water levels by as much as 3 feet above normal tides near the center
of Douglas.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands today into Monday.
Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are possible from Maui
County westward to Kauai County, with the greatest amounts up to 15
inches in elevated terrain. This rain may result in life-threatening
flash flooding and land slides, as well as rapid water level rises
on small streams. Douglas could produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall over the northern half of the Big Island.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe


>

2020-07-26 23:18


Original Message :

WTPA62 PHFO 262316
TCUCP2

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
100 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...100 PM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS CLOSING IN ON THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone
moves west-northwest, north of Maui. Hurricane Hunters from the Air
Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron continue to conduct
missions through Douglas and have observed Douglas experiencing
southerly vertical wind shear. This has been factored into the radar
position fix below.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM HST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 156.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM NNE OF KAHULUI HAWAII
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$

Forecaster M Ballard/Shigesato

>

2020-07-26 23:06


Original Message :

WTPA62 PHFO 262303
TCUCP2

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
100 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...100 PM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS CLOSING IN ON THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone
moves west-northwest, north of Maui. Hurricane Hunters from the Air
Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron continue to conduct
missions through Douglas and have observed Douglas experiencing
southerly vertical wind shear. This has been factored into the radar
position fix below.

SUMMARY OF 100 PM HST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 156.2W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM NE OF KAHULUI HAWAII
ABOUT 115 MI...180 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

$$

Forecaster M Ballard/Shigesato

>

2020-07-26 22:32


Original Message :

WTPA62 PHFO 262230
TCUCP2

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update...CORRECTED
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1200 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...1200 PM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS CLOSING IN ON THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone
moves west-northwest, north of Maui. Hurricane Hunters from the Air
Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron continue to conduct
missions through Douglas and have observed Douglas experiencing
southerly vertical wind shear. This has been factored into the radar
position fix below.


SUMMARY OF 1200 PM HST...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 156.0W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF KAHULUI HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES



$$

FORECASTER WROE

>

2020-07-26 22:16


Original Message :

WTPA62 PHFO 262213
TCUCP2

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1200 PM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...1200 PM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS CLOSING IN ON THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone
moves west-northwest, north of Maui. Hurricane Hunters from the Air
Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron continue to conduct
missions through Douglas and have observed Douglas experiencing
southerly vertical wind shear. This has been factored into the radar
position fix below.


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM HST...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 156.0W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NE OF KAHULUI HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES



$$

FORECASTER WROE

>

2020-07-26 21:32


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 262200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 026
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 20.9N 155.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 155.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.8N 158.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.6N 161.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.1N 164.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.4N 167.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 23.8N 171.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 24.1N 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 24.4N 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311800Z --- 25.6N 170.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
262200Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 156.0W.
26JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 72 NM
NORTH OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270400Z, 271000Z, 271600Z AND 272200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-26 20:55


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 262053
TCDCP2

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

Hurricane Hunters from the Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance
Squadron are back out sampling Douglas. The hurricane has been
resilient, with deep convection persisting to the west and north of
the center under increasing vertical wind shear. The Hurricane
Hunters have found that the center pressure has risen slightly, and
a blend of SFMR and adjusted flight level winds supports lowering
the initial intensity to 75 kt. Island-based radars are detecting
the mid-level circulation of Douglas, which could be tilted
slightly to the north due to the wind shear.

Slow weakening is expected as Douglas passes near, or over,
portions of the main Hawaiian Islands. SSTs will slowly increase
along the forecast track, but southerly vertical wind shear will
tilt the system and disrupt the circulation aloft, leading to
gradual weakening through at least the next four days. However,
Douglas is expected to remain a hurricane as it passes very near, or
over, portions of the main Hawaiian Islands today and tonight. The
intensity forecast was changed little from the prior advisory and
is in line within a tightly clustered guidance envelope through 36
hours and near consensus thereafter.

Hurricane Hunter data was essential in determining the initial
motion of 290/14 kt. Douglas will continue to be steered by a low-
to mid-level ridge toward the west-northwest during the next couple
of days, taking the center dangerously close to the islands from
Maui to Kauai through tonight, where a Hurricane Warning remains in
effect. The updated forecast track was changed little from the
previous forecast and remains near the southern edge of a tightly
clustered guidance envelope during the next couple of days. By day
three, an acceleration toward the west is expected as the
increasingly shallow system is steered along the low-level trade
winds.

Key Messages

1. Douglas will pass dangerously close to, or over, the islands
today and tonight, bringing a triple threat of hazards, including
but not limited to damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and
dangerously high surf, especially along east facing shores.

2. It is remains important that you do not focus on the exact
forecast track of Douglas. Due to Douglas' angle of approach to the
islands, any wobble in the track could lead to significant
differences in where the worst weather occurs. Even if the center
remains offshore, severe impacts could still be realized over the
islands, as they extend well away from the center.

3. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the
wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These
acceleration areas will shift with time as Douglas passes near the
islands. Hurricane force wind gusts are possible even within the
tropical storm warning area. Winds will also be stronger at the
upper floors of high rise buildings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 21.2N 155.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 21.8N 158.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR OAHU
24H 27/1800Z 22.6N 161.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 23.1N 164.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 23.4N 167.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 29/0600Z 23.8N 171.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 24.1N 175.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 24.4N 177.0E 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 31/1800Z 25.6N 170.0E 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

2020-07-26 20:48


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 262048
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 26
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS NEAR MAUI...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 155.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM ENE OF KAHULUI HAWAII
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case imminently
on Hawaii County and within the next 36 hours over portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Nihoa to French
Frigate Shoals.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to
48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 155.7 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Douglas will pass near, or over, the islands from
Maui to Kauai today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Douglas is expected to remain a hurricane as it moves through the
islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of Maui County
today, on Oahu by this afternoon, and on Kauai and Niihau tonight.
Tropical Storm conditions are imminent across portions of the Big
Island. Due to the steep terrain of the islands, hurricane-force
wind gusts are possible even within the tropical storm warning area.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas will affect the Hawaiian
Islands into Monday, producing life-threatening and potentially
destructive surf along exposed shores.

STORM SURGE: The combination of higher than predicted water
levels, dangerous storm surge, and large breaking waves will raise
water levels by as much as 3 feet above normal tides near the center
of Douglas.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands today into Monday.
Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are possible from Maui
County westward to Kauai County, with the greatest amounts up to 15
inches in elevated terrain. This rain may result in life-threatening
flash flooding and land slides, as well as rapid water level rises
on small streams. Douglas could produce an additional 2 to 4 inches
of rainfall over the northern half of the Big Island.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe


>

2020-07-26 20:46


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 262046
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
2100 UTC SUN JUL 26 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM NIHOA TO FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
IMMINENTLY ON HAWAII COUNTY AND WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 155.7W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 25SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 130SE 140SW 225NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 155.7W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 155.0W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.8N 158.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.6N 161.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.1N 164.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 25SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.4N 167.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 10SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 23.8N 171.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 10SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 24.1N 175.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 10SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 24.4N 177.0E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 25.6N 170.0E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 155.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 27/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE



>

2020-07-26 20:15


Original Message :

WTPA62 PHFO 262013
TCUCP2

Hurricane Douglas Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1000 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...1000 AM HST POSITION UPDATE...
...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS CLOSING IN ON THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...

The eye of Hurricane Douglas is being tracked by the North
Kohala and Molokai WSR-88D radars as the tropical cyclone
moves west-northwest, east of Maui County. Due to the distance
from the radars, the radars are sampling the upper portions of
Douglas. Hurricane Hunters from the Air Force 53rd Weather
Reconnaissance Squadron continue to conduct missions
through Douglas and have observed Douglas experiencing southerly
vertical wind shear. This has been factored into the radar position
fix below.


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM HST...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 155.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM ENE OF KAHULUI HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES



$$

FORECASTER M BALLARD

>

2020-07-26 17:58


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 261758
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
800 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS CLOSING IN ON THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.9N 155.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM E OF KAHULUI HAWAII
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to
48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 20.9 North, longitude 155.0 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Douglas will pass near, or over, the islands from
Maui to Kauai today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Douglas is expected to remain a hurricane as it moves through the
islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of Maui County
today, on Oahu by this afternoon, and on Kauai and Niihau tonight.
Tropical Storm conditions are imminent across the Big Island.
Due to the steep terrain of the islands, hurricane-force wind
gusts are possible even within the tropical storm warning area.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas will affect the Hawaiian
Islands into Monday, producing life-threatening and potentially
destructive surf along exposed shores.

STORM SURGE: The combination of higher than predicted water
levels, dangerous storm surge, and large breaking waves will raise
water levels by as much as 3 feet above normal tides near the center
of Douglas.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands from early this
morning into Monday. Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are
possible from Maui County westward to Kauai County, with the
greatest amounts up to 15 inches in elevated terrain. This rain may
result in life-threatening flash flooding and land slides, as well
as rapid water level rises on small streams. Douglas could produce
an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over the northern half of
the Big Island.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe


>

2020-07-26 15:13


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 261600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 20.5N 153.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 153.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.4N 156.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.3N 159.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.8N 162.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.3N 166.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 23.7N 169.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 24.0N 173.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 24.5N 179.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 25.5N 172.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261600Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 154.6W.
26JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 97 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
261200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 262200Z, 270400Z, 271000Z AND
271600Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-26 14:53


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 261451
TCDCP2

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

Hurricane Hunters from the Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance
Squadron spent most of the night with Douglas, making 5 passes
through the center. The final pass contained some of the strongest
winds of the entire mission, with flight-level winds near 100 kt,
SFMR winds up to 79 kt, and a relatively steady pressure reading
near 983 mb. The initial intensity was maintained at 80 kt based on
these valuable data points. Also of extreme value is the fact that
the low-level center is south of the apparent center seen in
conventional satellite imagery, and closer to the islands than
might be otherwise expected. Although island-based radars are also
detecting Douglas' circulation, they are sampling the upper
portions of the cyclone that are sheared northward due to southerly
vertical wind shear.

Despite the vertical wind shear, Douglas has been slow to weaken,
and this trend will continue today as Douglas passes near, or
potentially over, the islands. Steadily increasing SSTs along the
forecast track are expected to limit the rate of weakening, while
the noted vertical wind shear may be confined to the upper-levels.
While Douglas is on the western edge of a ridge aloft, leading to
high-level southerly shear, a mid-level ridge is expected to build
westward to the north of Douglas through Monday, likely allowing
the low- to mid-level core of the cyclone to remain intact. The
updated intensity forecast once again closely follows the consensus
IVCN, and maintains Douglas as a hurricane until it passes west of
the islands. Steady weakening will occur thereafter due to
persistent southwesterly shear.

The mid-level ridge will continue to drive Douglas toward the west-
northwest, with the current motion vector estimated to be 285/14
kt. The forecast track takes the center of Douglas dangerously close
to the islands from Maui to Kauai through tonight, where a Hurricane
Warning is in effect. The updated forecast track is very close to
the previous forecast and the high-performing ECMWF guidance, and
anticipates some acceleration toward the west in the later periods
as the increasingly shallow system gets steered by the low-level
trade wind flow.

Key Messages

1. Douglas will pass dangerously close to, or over, the islands
today, bringing a triple threat of hazards, including but not
limited to damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and dangerously high
surf, especially along east and north facing shores.

2. It is remains important that you do not focus on the exact
forecast track of Douglas. Due to Douglas' angle of approach to the
islands, any wobble in the track could lead to significant
differences in where the worst weather occurs. Even if the center
remains offshore, severe impacts could still be realized over the
islands, as they extend well away from the center.

3. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the
wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These acceleration
areas will shift with time as Douglas passes near the islands.
Hurricane force wind gusts are possible even within the tropical
storm warning area. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors
of high rise buildings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 20.7N 154.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 21.4N 156.6W 75 KT 85 MPH...NEAR MAUI COUNTY
24H 27/1200Z 22.3N 159.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...NEAR KAUAI
36H 28/0000Z 22.8N 162.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 23.3N 166.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 29/0000Z 23.7N 169.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 24.0N 173.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 24.5N 179.5E 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 31/1200Z 25.5N 172.0E 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

2020-07-26 14:40


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 261439
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 25
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS CLOSING IN ON THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR MAUI COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 154.3W
ABOUT 145 MI...230 KM E OF KAHULUI HAWAII
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Hurricane Watch for Maui County, including the islands of Maui,
Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe has been upgraded to a Hurricane
Warning.

The Hurricane Watch has been canceled for Hawaii County.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from French Frigate
Shoals to Maro Reef.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals to Maro Reef.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next
24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to
48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 154.3 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue over the next couple of days. On the
forecast track, Douglas will pass near, or over, the islands from
Maui to Kauai today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Douglas is expected to remain a hurricane as it moves through the
islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in portions of Maui County
today, on Oahu by this afternoon, and on Kauai and Niihau tonight.
Tropical Storm conditions are imminent across the Big Island.
Due to the steep terrain of the islands, hurricane-force wind
gusts are possible even within the tropical storm warning area.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas will affect the Hawaiian
Islands into Monday, producing life-threatening and potentially
destructive surf along exposed shores.

STORM SURGE: The combination of higher than predicted water
levels, dangerous storm surge, and large breaking waves will raise
water levels by as much as 3 feet above normal tides near the center
of Douglas.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands from early this
morning into Monday. Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are
possible from Maui County westward to Kauai County, with the
greatest amounts up to 15 inches in elevated terrain. This rain may
result in life-threatening flash flooding and land slides, as well
as rapid water level rises on small streams. Douglas could produce
an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall over the northern half of
the Big Island.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-07-26 14:35


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 261434
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
1500 UTC SUN JUL 26 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF
MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI AND KAHOOLAWE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE WARNING.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELED FOR HAWAII COUNTY.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM FRENCH FRIGATE
SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS TO MARO REEF.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 154.3W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 150SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 154.3W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 153.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.4N 156.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.3N 159.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.8N 162.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.3N 166.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 5SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 10SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.7N 169.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 10SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 24.0N 173.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 10SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 24.5N 179.5E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1200Z 25.5N 172.0E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 154.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 26/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

2020-07-26 11:58


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 261157
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
200 AM HST Sun Jul 26 2020

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS CLOSING IN ON THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 153.6W
ABOUT 190 MI...300 KM E OF KAHULUI HAWAII
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12
to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 to 24 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located by Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 20.5 North,
longitude 153.6 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-northwest
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Douglas
will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands later
today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Douglas is expected to remain near hurricane intensity as it passes
near, or over, the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Oahu on later today
and on Kauai and Niihau tonight, and remain possible across
Maui County and the Big Island today. Tropical Storm conditions
are imminent across the Big Island and Maui County.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas will affect the Hawaiian
Islands into Monday, producing life-threatening and potentially
destructive surf along exposed shores.

STORM SURGE: The combination of higher than predicted water
levels, dangerous storm surge, and large breaking waves will raise
water levels by as much as 3 feet above normal tides near the center
of Douglas.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands from early this
morning into Monday. Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are
possible from Maui County westward to Kauai County, with the
greatest amounts up to 15 inches in elevated terrain. This rain may
result in life-threatening flash flooding and land slides, as well
as rapid water level rises on small streams. Douglas could produce
2 to 5 inches of rainfall over the northern half of the Big Island.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-07-26 09:38


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 261000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 20.1N 152.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 152.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.1N 155.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.8N 157.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.5N 160.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.2N 163.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.6N 166.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 24.0N 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 24.0N 177.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310600Z --- 25.0N 175.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
261000Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 153.1W.
26JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 31 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261600Z, 262200Z, 270400Z AND 271000Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-26 09:00


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 260859
TCDCP2

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 PM HST Sat Jul 25 2020

Hurricane Hunters from the Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance
Squadron have been flying through and around the center of Douglas
through the evening, providing valuable ground truth. Latest data
support maintaining Douglas' initial intensity at 80 kt, with
maximum flight-level winds near 90 kt, SFMR winds as high as 78 kt,
and a central pressure near 983 mb. Worth noting that the data also
indicate that the low-level center is south of the center that is
seen in conventional satellite imagery. Recent microwave images
confirm that the cyclone is tilted to the north with height, due to
southerly vertical wind shear.

Despite the vertical wind shear, Douglas is expected to only slowly
weaken as it comes dangerously close to the Hawaiian Islands. This
is primarily due to steadily increasing SSTs along the forecast
track, and also likely due to the fact that most of the shear is in
the upper levels. While Douglas has rounded the southwestern edge
of a ridge aloft, leading to high-level southerly shear, a
mid-level ridge is expected to build westward to the north of
Douglas, likely allowing the low- to mid-level core of the cyclone
to remain intact. The updated intensity forecast closely follows
the consensus IVCN, and maintains Douglas as a hurricane as it
passes near Oahu and Kauai County.

The mid-level ridge will continue to drive Douglas toward the west-
northwest, with the current motion vector estimated to be 290/14
kt. The forecast track takes the center of Douglas dangerously close
to Oahu and Kauai on Sunday, with some of the guidance indicating a
slight jog toward the west Sunday evening near Oahu, necessitating
a Hurricane Warning for Kauai County. Douglas will potentially
impact parts of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument on
Monday and Tuesday. The updated forecast track is very close to the
previous forecast, the track consensus TVCN, and is on the southern
side of most of the guidance. However the GFS and ECMWF ensemble
means are just left of the official forecast, suggesting a
potentially more impactful scenario for Kauai County and Oahu.

Key Messages

1. Douglas continues to approach the main Hawaiian Islands, and
will pass dangerously close to, or over, the islands Sunday. The
close passage of Douglas brings a triple threat of hazards,
including but not limited to damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and
dangerously high surf, especially along east facing shores.

2. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Douglas. Due to Douglas' angle of approach to the
islands, any small changes in the track could lead to significant
differences in where the worst weather occurs. Even if the center
remains offshore, severe impacts could still be realized over the
islands, as they extend well away from the center.

3. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the
wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These
acceleration areas will shift with time as Douglas passes near the
islands. Hurricane force wind gusts are possible even within the
tropical storm warning area. Winds will also be stronger at the
upper floors of high rise buildings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 20.4N 152.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 21.1N 155.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 21.8N 157.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 22.5N 160.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 23.2N 163.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 23.6N 166.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 24.0N 170.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 24.0N 177.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 31/0600Z 25.0N 175.0E 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

2020-07-26 08:40


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 260839
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 24
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 PM HST Sat Jul 25 2020

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE DOUGLAS DRAWING CLOSER TO HAWAII...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 152.8W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM E OF KAHULUI HAWAII
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM E OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

The Tropical Storm Warning for Kauai County has been upgraded to a
Hurricane Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located by reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 20.4 North,
longitude 152.8 West. Douglas is moving toward the west-northwest
near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, Douglas
will pass dangerously close to the main Hawaiian Islands on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
but Douglas is forecast to remain near hurricane intensity as it
passes the islands, necessitating a Hurricane Warning for Kauai
County.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Oahu on Sunday and on
Kauai and Niihau Sunday night, and remain possible across Maui
County and the Big Island on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions
are expected across the Big Island and Maui County beginning early
Sunday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas will affect the Hawaiian
Islands into Monday, producing life-threatening and potentially
destructive surf along exposed shores.

STORM SURGE: The combination of higher than predicted water
levels, dangerous storm surge, and large breaking waves will raise
water levels by as much as 3 feet above normal tides near the center
of Douglas.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands from early Sunday
into Monday. Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are
possible from Maui County westward to Kauai County, with the
greatest amounts in elevated terrain. This rain may result in
life-threatening flash flooding and land slides, as well as rapid
water level rises on small streams. Douglas could produce 2 to 5
inches of rainfall over the northern half of the Big Island.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-07-26 08:39


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 260838
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
0900 UTC SUN JUL 26 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR KAUAI COUNTY HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
HURRICANE WARNING.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PORTIONS OF THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT FROM
NIHOA TO FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL
MONUMENT SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 152.8W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 125SE 125SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 152.8W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 152.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 21.1N 155.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 45SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.8N 157.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.5N 160.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.2N 163.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 5SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 20SE 10SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.6N 166.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 10SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.0N 170.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 20SE 10SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 24.0N 177.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z 25.0N 175.0E
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 152.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 26/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

2020-07-26 05:55


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 260554
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
800 PM HST Sat Jul 25 2020

...HURRICANE DOUGLAS DRAWING CLOSER TO HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 152.0W
ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM ESE OF KAHULUI HAWAII
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...145 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau.

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Portions of the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from
Nihoa to French Frigate Shoals.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within
24 to 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area within the next 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National
Monument should monitor the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 152.0 West. Douglas
is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). This
motion is expected to continue through the next couple of days. On
the forecast track, Douglas will be near the main Hawaiian Islands
late tonight and is expected move near, or over, parts of the state
Sunday and Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days.
However, Douglas is still forecast to be near hurricane strength
when it passes near the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Oahu on Sunday and are
possible across Maui County and the Big Island on Sunday. Tropical
Storm conditions are expected across Hawaii County and Maui County
beginning late tonight or Sunday and across Kauai County Sunday
night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas are expected to build
tonight and affect the Hawaiian Islands Sunday into Monday, and
storm surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tides is expected near the
center of Douglas. The large swells and surge will produce life
threatening and potentially destructive surf along exposed shores.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands from late tonight
into Monday. Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are
possible from Maui County westward to Kauai County, with the
greatest amounts in elevated terrain. This rain may result in
life-threatening flash flooding and land slides, as well as rapid
water level rises on small streams. Douglas could produce 2 to 5
inches of rainfall over the northern half of the Big Island.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-07-26 03:24


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 260400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 19.7N 150.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.7N 150.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.6N 153.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.5N 156.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.3N 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.0N 162.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.6N 165.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.0N 168.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 24.6N 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 25.7N 178.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
260400Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 151.7W.
26JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 261000Z, 261600Z, 262200Z AND 270400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-25 23:58


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 252357
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
200 PM HST Sat Jul 25 2020

...HURRICANE DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD
HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 150.7W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 475 MI...780 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to
48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and in the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Douglas was located
near latitude 19.7 North, longitude 150.7 West. Douglas is moving
toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). This motion is
expected to continue through the next couple of days, with a slight
decrease in forward speed today. On the forecast track, Douglas will
be near the main Hawaiian Islands late tonight and is expected move
over parts of the state Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through the weekend. However,
Douglas is still forecast to be near hurricane strength when it
nears the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Oahu on Sunday and
Sunday night and are possible across Maui County and the Big Island
late tonight and Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected
across Hawaii County and Maui County beginning late tonight or
Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible across Kauai County
late Sunday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas are expected to affect
the Hawaiian Islands during the next couple of days, and storm
surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tides is expected near the
center of Douglas. The large swells and surge will produce life
threatening and potentially destructive surf along exposed shores.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands from late tonight
through Monday. Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are
possible from Maui County westward to Kauai County, with the
greatest amounts in elevated terrain. This rain may result in
life-threatening flash flooding and land slides, as well as rapid
water level rises on small streams. Douglas is expected to
produce 2 to 5 inches of rainfall over the northern half of the
Big Island.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe


>

2020-07-25 21:50


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 252200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 19.1N 149.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 149.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.1N 152.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.0N 154.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.8N 157.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.5N 160.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.1N 163.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.7N 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 24.5N 173.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 25.8N 180.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
252200Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 150.1W.
25JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 341 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260400Z, 261000Z, 261600Z AND 262200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-25 21:00


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 252059
TCDCP2

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 25 2020

The satellite presentation of Douglas is degrading somewhat, likely
due to restricted outflow to the south and 26C SSTs. The U.S. Air
Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron sampled the hurricane
this morning, and a blend of SFMR, flight level winds, and dropsonde
data from two passes supports decreasing the intensity to 80 kt with
a central pressure of 984 mb.

Douglas continues to move toward the west-northwest (290 deg) at 16
kt. Douglas is being steered by a low- to mid-level ridge to the
northeast and is nearing a weakness in the mid-level ridge. A
continued motion toward the west-northwest and a slight decrease in
forward motion will bring Douglas over or very near portions of the
main Hawaiian Islands on Sunday. On Monday, a mid-level ridge is
forecast to build to the north of Douglas, potentially inducing a
turn toward the west, with some increase in forward speed. The
updated forecast track is very close to the previous forecast and
lies close to the ECMWF toward the southern end of a rather tightly
clustered guidance envelope.

Weakening is expected through the forecast. Douglas will remain
over an area of 26C SST today, which is expected to continue the
gradual weakening trend. SSTs along the forecast track increase
tonight, at the same time that Douglas will move into an area of
increased vertical wind shear. This is expected to maintain a
weakening trend, although at a fairly slow rate. The official
intensity forecast has changed very little from the previous
advisory, and generally follows a blend of the corrected consensus
and statistical model guidance.

Based on the latest forecast, a Hurricane Warning has been issued
for Oahu. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for Hawaii
County and Maui County. A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for
Hawaii County and Maui County, and a Tropical Storm Watch is in
effect for Kauai County.

Key Messages:

1. Douglas continues to approach the main Hawaiian Islands,
potentially passing dangerously close to, or over, the islands late
tonight through Sunday night. The close passage of Douglas brings a
triple threat of hazards, including but not limited to damaging
winds, flooding rainfall, and dangerously high surf, especially
along east facing shores.

2. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Douglas. Due to Douglas' angle of approach to the
islands, any small changes in the track could lead to significant
differences in where the worst weather occurs. Even if the center
remains offshore, severe impacts could still be realized over the
islands, as they extend well away from the center.

3. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of the
wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These
acceleration
areas will shift with time as Douglas passes near the islands.
Hurricane force wind gusts are possible even within the tropical
storm warning area. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors
of high rise buildings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 19.5N 150.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 20.1N 152.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 21.0N 154.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 21.8N 157.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 22.5N 160.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 23.1N 163.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 23.7N 167.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 24.5N 173.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 25.8N 180.0E 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

2020-07-25 20:50


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 252049
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 22
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 25 2020

...HURRICANE DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD
HAWAII...
...HURRICANE WARNING ISSUED FOR OAHU...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 150.1W
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Hurricane Warning has been issued for Oahu.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Oahu

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to
48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and in the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 150.1 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). This motion
is expected to continue through the next couple of days, with a
slight decrease in forward speed today. On the forecast track,
Douglas will be near the main Hawaiian Islands late tonight
and will move over parts of the state Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through the weekend. However,
Douglas is still forecast to be near hurricane strength when it
nears the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 110 miles
(175 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected on Oahu on Sunday and
Sunday night and are possible across Maui County and the Big Island
late tonight and Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected
across Hawaii County and Maui County beginning late tonight or
Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are possible across Kauai County
late Sunday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas are expected to affect
the Hawaiian Islands during the next couple of days, and storm
surge of 2 to 4 feet above normal tides is expected near the
center of Douglas. The large swells and surge will produce life
threatening and potentially destructive surf along exposed shores.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands from late tonight
through Monday. Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches are
possible from Maui County westward to Kauai County, with the
greatest amounts in elevated terrain. This rain may result in
life-threatening flash flooding and land slides, as well as rapid
water level rises on small streams. Douglas is expected to
produce 2 to 5 inches of rainfall over the northern half of the
Big Island.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe


>

2020-07-25 20:49


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 252048
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
2100 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OAHU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND IN THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 150.1W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 95NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..225NE 160SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 150.1W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 149.1W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.1N 152.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 21.0N 154.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.8N 157.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.5N 160.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 23.1N 163.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 25SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.7N 167.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 24.5N 173.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.8N 180.0E
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 150.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 26/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE



>

2020-07-25 18:01


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 251800
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
800 AM HST Sat Jul 25 2020

...HURRICANE DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD
HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 149.1W
ABOUT 390 MI...625 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 590 MI...950 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to
48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and in the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM HST (1800 UTC), a U.S. Air Force 53rd Weather
Reconnaissance aircraft located the center of Hurricane Douglas
near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 149.1 West. Douglas is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). This motion
is expected to continue with a slight decrease in forward speed
today, followed by a slight turn toward the west tonight through
Monday. On the forecast track, Douglas will be near the main
Hawaiian Islands late tonight through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (160 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through the weekend. However,
Douglas is still forecast to be near hurricane strength when it
nears the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the
main Hawaiian Islands late tonight through Sunday night. Tropical
Storm conditions are expected across Hawaii County and Maui County
beginning late tonight or Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are
possible across Kauai County late Sunday or Sunday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas are expected to affect
the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and storm surge of around 2
feet above normal tides is expected near the center of Douglas. The
large swells and surge will produce life threatening and
potentially damaging surf along exposed shores.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands from late tonight
through Monday. Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches
are possible from Maui County westward to Kauai County, with
the greatest amounts in elevated terrain. This rain may result
in life-threatening flash flooding and land slides, as well as
rapid water level rises on small streams. Douglas is expected to
produce 2 to 5 inches of rainfall over the northern half of the
Big Island.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe


>

2020-07-25 16:00


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 251559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 25.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 27.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.07.2020 0 11.4N 27.1W 1011 21
0000UTC 26.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE HANNA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 96.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.07.2020 0 27.2N 96.0W 990 52
0000UTC 26.07.2020 12 27.0N 97.8W 981 58
1200UTC 26.07.2020 24 26.4N 99.8W 981 46
0000UTC 27.07.2020 36 25.6N 101.0W 1001 25
1200UTC 27.07.2020 48 24.7N 103.1W 1005 20
0000UTC 28.07.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 59.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.07.2020 0 11.1N 59.7W 1012 27
0000UTC 26.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 147.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.07.2020 0 18.8N 147.6W 978 66
0000UTC 26.07.2020 12 19.7N 150.5W 983 61
1200UTC 26.07.2020 24 20.7N 153.4W 988 56
0000UTC 27.07.2020 36 22.0N 156.2W 991 57
1200UTC 27.07.2020 48 22.5N 159.1W 1000 49
0000UTC 28.07.2020 60 23.2N 162.4W 1005 43
1200UTC 28.07.2020 72 23.6N 166.1W 1010 36
0000UTC 29.07.2020 84 24.1N 169.9W 1013 32
1200UTC 29.07.2020 96 24.2N 173.7W 1014 29
0000UTC 30.07.2020 108 25.0N 177.3W 1014 31
1200UTC 30.07.2020 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.5N 42.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.07.2020 48 13.5N 42.7W 1009 29
0000UTC 28.07.2020 60 14.1N 46.9W 1008 32
1200UTC 28.07.2020 72 14.4N 50.9W 1006 37
0000UTC 29.07.2020 84 15.1N 54.9W 1004 38
1200UTC 29.07.2020 96 17.0N 58.4W 1001 44
0000UTC 30.07.2020 108 18.5N 61.9W 996 49
1200UTC 30.07.2020 120 19.9N 65.6W 989 59
0000UTC 31.07.2020 132 21.7N 68.5W 970 70
1200UTC 31.07.2020 144 23.6N 71.7W 961 71


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251559

>

2020-07-25 16:00


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 251559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 27.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.07.2020 11.4N 27.1W WEAK
00UTC 26.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE HANNA ANALYSED POSITION : 27.2N 96.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.07.2020 27.2N 96.0W MODERATE
00UTC 26.07.2020 27.0N 97.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.07.2020 26.4N 99.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.07.2020 25.6N 101.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 27.07.2020 24.7N 103.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 59.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.07.2020 11.1N 59.7W WEAK
00UTC 26.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 147.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.07.2020 18.8N 147.6W STRONG
00UTC 26.07.2020 19.7N 150.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.07.2020 20.7N 153.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.07.2020 22.0N 156.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.07.2020 22.5N 159.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.07.2020 23.2N 162.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.07.2020 23.6N 166.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.07.2020 24.1N 169.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.07.2020 24.2N 173.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2020 25.0N 177.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.5N 42.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.07.2020 13.5N 42.7W WEAK
00UTC 28.07.2020 14.1N 46.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.07.2020 14.4N 50.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.07.2020 15.1N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.07.2020 17.0N 58.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.07.2020 18.5N 61.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.07.2020 19.9N 65.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 31.07.2020 21.7N 68.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 31.07.2020 23.6N 71.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251559

>

2020-07-25 15:24


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 251600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 147.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 116 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 147.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.7N 150.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.6N 153.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.4N 156.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.1N 159.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.7N 162.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.2N 166.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 24.1N 172.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 25.3N 179.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
251600Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 148.6W.
25JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 116 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252200Z, 260400Z, 261000Z AND 261600Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-25 14:57


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 251456
TCDCP2

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 21
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 AM HST Sat Jul 25 2020

The satellite presentation of Douglas has changed very little since
the previous advisory, with the eye remaining cloud filled
and difficult to locate with a high degree of certainty. The
latest current intensity estimates from the satellite agencies came
in at 5.0 (90 knots) from PHFO, 4.5 (77 knots) from JTWC and SAB,
while the ADT from UW-CIMSS was 4.6 (80 knots). Based on the
U.S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron mission
last evening finding maximum flight level winds of 108 knots (97
knots with appropriate wind reduction factor to the surface from the
700 mb flight level) and SFMR winds of 93 knots, we will
conservatively lower the initial intensity to 90 knots with this
advisory, but that may be generous. Douglas appears to have made a
subtle shift toward the west overnight, and the initial motion
for this advisory has been set at 290/16 knots.

The tropical cyclone will be going over the coolest sea
surface temperatures (SSTs) along its forecast track during the
next 12 to 18 hours before SSTs climb back to 26C or above. This
should result in continued weakening despite relatively low
vertical wind shear. Thereafter, the vertical wind shear slowly
becomes less conducive for intensification, while SSTs become less
hostile as they rise back to 26/27C or above. We expect that the
increasing wind shear will win the battle through the remainder of
the forecast track, and show slow and gradual weakening through 120
hours. The official intensity forecast has changed very little from
the previous advisory, and generally follows a blend of the
corrected consensus and statistical model guidance.

Douglas is forecast to continue to move off to the west-northwest
today toward a weakness in the sub-tropical ridge north of the
Hawaiian Islands, with a slight reduction in forward speed. The
subtropical ridge is forecast to strengthen north of the state
tonight through the remainder of the weekend and this should steer
the tropical cyclone slightly more westward, and over or very near
the Hawaiian Islands late tonight through Sunday night. Douglas is
then expected to exit to the west of the island chain early
next week. The official track forecast is virtually identical to the
previous advisory, and continues to hug the southern end of the
guidance envelope. This track is roughly in the middle of the
deterministic GFS/ECMWF solutions and the GFS/ECMWF ensemble
means, which is very close to the corrected consensus guidance HCCA.

Based on the latest intensity and track forecast, a Tropical Storm
Watch has been issued for Kauai County. Tropical Storm
Warnings remain in effect for Hawaii County and Maui County. A
Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Hawaii County, Maui County and
Oahu. Finally, a Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required
for Oahu later today.

Key Messages

1. Douglas continues to approach the main Hawaiian Islands,
potentially passing dangerously close to, or over, the islands
late tonight through Sunday night. The close passage of Douglas
brings a triple threat of hazards, including but not limited to
damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and dangerously high surf,
especially along east facing shores.

2. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Douglas, and remain prepared for changes to the
forecast. Due to Douglas' angle of approach to the islands, any
small changes in the track could lead to significant differences in
where the worst weather occurs. Even if the center remains
offshore, severe impacts could still be realized over the islands,
as they extend well away from the center.

3. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of
the wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These
acceleration areas will shift with time as Douglas passes near the
islands. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of
high rise buildings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 19.1N 148.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 19.7N 150.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 20.6N 153.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 21.4N 156.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 22.1N 159.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 22.7N 162.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 23.2N 166.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 24.1N 172.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 25.3N 179.2W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

>

2020-07-25 14:35


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 251434
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 21
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 AM HST Sat Jul 25 2020

...HURRICANE DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD
HAWAII...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 148.4W
ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Kauai County, including
the islands of Kauai and Niihau.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Kauai County, including the islands of Kauai and Niihau.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to 48 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36 to
48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and in the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 148.4 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). This motion
is expected to continue with a slight decrease in forward
speed today, followed by a slight turn toward the west tonight
through Monday. On the forecast track, Douglas will be near the
main Hawaiian Islands late tonight through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through the weekend. However,
Douglas is still forecast to be near hurricane strength when it
nears the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb (28.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the
main Hawaiian Islands late tonight through Sunday night. Tropical
Storm conditions are expected across Hawaii County and Maui County
beginning late tonight or Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are
possible across Kauai County late Sunday or Sunday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas are expected to affect
the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions for the next
couple of days.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands from late tonight
through Monday. Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches
are possible from Maui County westward to Kauai County, with
the greatest amounts in elevated terrain. This rain may result
in life-threatening flash flooding and land slides, as well as
rapid water level rises on small streams. Douglas is expected to
produce 2 to 5 inches of rainfall over the northern half of the
Big Island.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


>

2020-07-25 14:34


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 251434
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
1500 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING
THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* KAUAI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND IN THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 148.4W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 35SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..230NE 160SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 148.4W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 147.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.7N 150.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.6N 153.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.4N 156.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.1N 159.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.7N 162.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 25SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 23.2N 166.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 24.1N 172.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 25.3N 179.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 148.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 25/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA



>

2020-07-25 11:49


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 251149
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
200 AM HST Sat Jul 25 2020

...DOUGLAS CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM HST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 147.7W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 690 MI...1105 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and in the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM HST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 147.7 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). This motion
is expected to continue through Saturday, followed by a slight
decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the west. On the
forecast track, Douglas will be near the main Hawaiian Islands
Saturday night through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Douglas is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected to continue
through the weekend. However, Douglas is still forecast to be near
hurricane strength when it nears the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb (28.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the
main Hawaiian Islands late Saturday night through Monday. Tropical
Storm conditions are expected across Hawaii County and Maui County
beginning Saturday night or Sunday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas are expected to affect
the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions for a couple of
days.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands from late Saturday
night through Monday. Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches
with locally higher amounts will be possible on the smaller
islands, especially across elevated terrain. This rain may result
in life-threatening flash flooding and land slides, as well as
rapid water level rises on small streams. 3 to 6 inches of rainfall
are possible on the Big Island, with locally higher amounts.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


>

2020-07-25 09:36


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 251000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 18.2N 145.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 145.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.3N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.3N 151.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.1N 154.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.8N 157.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.4N 160.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 22.9N 164.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 24.0N 171.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 25.0N 177.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
251000Z POSITION NEAR 18.6N 146.9W.
25JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 47 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251600Z, 252200Z, 260400Z AND 261000Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-25 09:03


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 250902
TCDCP2

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 20
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 24 2020

Douglas remains a powerful hurricane this evening as confirmed by
the U.S. Air Force 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron. The
Hurricane Hunters found maximum flight level winds of 108 knots (97
knots with appropriate wind reduction factor to the surface from
the 700 mb flight level) and SFMR winds of 93 knots. Based on
these data and recent trends showing a degraded satellite
presentation, the initial intensity for this advisory will be
lowered to 95 knots. Douglas continues to move rapidly to the west-
northwest, with an initial motion set at 295/16 knots.

Despite relatively low vertical wind shear values forecast to
affect the tropical cyclone during the next day or so, SSTs will
remain below 26C. As a result, the official intensity forecast
calls for slow but steady weakening during the next couple days as
Douglas nears Hawaii, with the cyclone expected to be a minimal
category 1 hurricane or strong tropical storm approaching the
eastern end of the state late Saturday night or Sunday. Continued
weakening is then forecast as Douglas tracks westward over or near
the other main Hawaiian islands and west of the state early next
week. The official intensity forecast has changed very
little from the previous advisory, and generally follows a blend of
the corrected consensus and statistical model guidance.

Douglas is forecast to move rapidly off to the west-northwest
during the next couple days toward a weakness in the sub-tropical
ridge north of the Hawaiian islands. The subtropical ridge is
forecast to strengthen north of the state over the weekend, and
this should steer the tropical cyclone westward over or very near
the Hawaiian Islands late Saturday night through Sunday
night, before exiting to the west of the state early next week. The
official track forecast is virtually identical to the
previous advisory, and continues to hug the southern end of the
guidance envelope. This track is roughly in between the corrected
consensus guidance HCCA and the ECMWF and GFS ensemble mean tracks.

Based on the latest intensity and track forecast, Tropical Storm
Warnings have been issued for Hawaii County and Maui County. A
Hurricane Watch remains in effect for Hawaii County, Maui County and
Oahu. A Hurricane or Tropical Storm Warning may be required for Oahu
on Saturday. A Hurricane or Tropical Storm Watch may be required
for Kauai County on Saturday.

Key Messages

1. Douglas continues to approach the main Hawaiian Islands,
potentially passing dangerously close to, or over, the islands
Saturday night through Sunday night. The close passage of Douglas
brings a triple threat of hazards, including but not limited to
damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and dangerously high surf,
especially along east facing shores.

2. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Douglas, and remain prepared for changes to the
forecast. Due to Douglas' angle of approach to the islands, any
small changes in the track could lead to significant differences in
where the worst weather occurs. Even if the center remains
offshore, severe impacts could still be realized over the islands,
as they extend well away from the center.

3. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of
the wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These
acceleration areas will shift with time as Douglas passes near the
islands. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of
high rise buildings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 18.5N 146.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 19.3N 149.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 20.3N 151.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 21.1N 154.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 21.8N 157.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 22.4N 160.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 22.9N 164.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 24.0N 171.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 25.0N 177.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

>

2020-07-25 08:41


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 250841
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 20
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 24 2020

...DOUGLAS WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT STILL HEADING TOWARD HAWAII...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY AND MAUI
COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.5N 146.7W
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Hawaii County and
Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere withing the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and in the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 18.5 North, longitude 146.7 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). This motion
is expected to continue through Saturday, followed by a slight
decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the west. On the
forecast track, Douglas will be near the main Hawaiian Islands
Saturday night through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Douglas is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected to continue
through the weekend. However, Douglas is still forecast to be near
hurricane strength when it nears the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible across portions of the
main Hawaiian Islands late Saturday night through Monday. Tropical
Storm conditions are expected across Hawaii County and Maui County
beginning Saturday night or Sunday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas are expected to affect
the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions for a couple of
days.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the main Hawaiian Islands from late Saturday
night through Monday. Total rain accumulations of 5 to 10 inches
with locally higher amounts will be possible on the smaller
islands, especially across elevated terrain. This rain may result
in life-threatening flash flooding and land slides, as well as
rapid water level rises on small streams. 3 to 6 inches of rainfall
are possible on the Big Island, with locally higher amounts.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


>

2020-07-25 08:41


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 250841
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
0900 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAWAII COUNTY AND
MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHING THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND IN THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 146.7W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 40SE 25SW 45NW.
34 KT.......100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 170SE 150SW 200NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 146.7W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 145.9W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.3N 149.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 35SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.3N 151.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 35NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 21.1N 154.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 35NE 25SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.8N 157.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.4N 160.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 22.9N 164.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 24.0N 171.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 25.0N 177.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 146.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 25/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA



>

2020-07-25 05:49


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 250548
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
800 PM HST Fri Jul 24 2020

...MAJOR HURRICANE DOUGLAS STILL MOVING TOWARD HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM HST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 145.9W
ABOUT 610 MI...980 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and in the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM HST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 145.9 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). This motion
is expected to continue through Saturday, followed by a slight
decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the west. On the
forecast track, Douglas will be near the main Hawaiian Islands
Saturday night through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Douglas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected to continue
through the weekend. However, Douglas is still forecast to be near
hurricane strength when it nears the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb (28.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on the Big Island late
Saturday night and Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by Saturday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible over Maui
County Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning
late Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible on Oahu
Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possible Sunday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas are expected to affect
the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions for a couple of
days.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late Saturday night
through Monday. Total rain accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are possible, especially
in higher terrain. This rain may result in life-threatening
flash flooding and land slides.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


>

2020-07-25 03:18


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 250400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 17.5N 144.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 144.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.8N 147.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.0N 150.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.8N 153.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.4N 156.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.0N 159.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.6N 162.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.0N 169.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 25.0N 175.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
250400Z POSITION NEAR 17.9N 145.4W.
25JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 628 NM
EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250000Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 251000Z, 251600Z, 252200Z AND 260400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-25 02:57


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 250255
TCDCP2

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 19
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 PM HST Fri Jul 24 2020

The eye of Douglas has remained visible in conventional satellite
imagery through the day today, and even cleared out for a little
while this afternoon, indicating that Douglas remains a powerful
hurricane. Subjective satellite current intensity estimates ranged
from 4.5/90 kt to 5.5/105 kt, while ADT was near 5.5. Although the
eye is clouding up again this afternoon, and surrounding convection
is cooling, the initial intensity has been held at 100 kt for this
advisory.

The forward motion vector has changed little over the past 24
hours, and is measured to be 295/17kt, as Douglas continues to be
steered by a mid-level ridge centered to the distant northeast.
As Douglas draws closer to the main Hawaiian Islands the next 2
days, it will round the western periphery of the ridge, allowing
the cyclone to gain some latitude, with some reduction in
forward speed. Thereafter, a mid-level ridge is forecast to
build to the north of Douglas, potentially inducing a turn
toward the west, with some increase in forward speed. The updated
track forecast is nearly identical to the previous, lies along the
southern side of a fairly tightly-clustered guidance envelope, and
is very close to ECMWF ensemble guidance. On the forecast track,
Douglas will move dangerously close to the Hawaiian Islands, and a
Hurricane Watch is posted for all islands except Kauai County, which
may need to be added on Saturday.

Douglas will be traversing an area of sub-26C SST for the next 36
hours or so, which is expected to lead a gradual weakening trend,
despite vertical wind shear on the lighter side, especially by
central Pacific standards. SSTs along the forecast track increase
from 48 hours onward, at the same time that Douglas is expected to
move into an area of increased vertical wind shear as it rounds the
southwestern periphery of an upper-level ridge. This is expected to
lead to a continued weakening trend, although at a fairly slow
rate. The intensity forecast is very close to the SHIPS guidance,
and close to the IVCN intensity consensus.

A Hurricane Hunter aircraft is en route to fly an initial mission
into Douglas, and this valuable data is expected to be available
for the next forecast update. Additional flights into Douglas are
scheduled for tomorrow. In the meantime, a morning ASCAT pass was
used to fine tune the wind radii analysis.

Key Messages

1. Douglas continues to approach the main Hawaiian Islands,
potentially passing dangerously close to, or over, the islands
Saturday night through Sunday night. The close passage of Douglas
brings a triple threat of hazards, including but not limited to
damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and dangerously high surf,
especially along east facing shores.

2. It is vital that you do not focus on the exact forecast track or
intensity of Douglas, and remain prepared for changes to the
forecast. Due to Douglas' angle of approach to the islands, any
small changes in the track could lead to significant differences in
where the worst weather occurs. Even if the center remains
offshore, severe impacts could still be realized over the islands,
as they extend well away from the center.

3. Terrain effects can cause strong localized acceleration of
the wind through gaps and where winds blow downslope. These
acceleration areas will shift with time as Douglas passes near the
islands. Winds will also be stronger at the upper floors of
high rise buildings.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 17.9N 145.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 18.8N 147.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 20.0N 150.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 20.8N 153.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 21.4N 156.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 22.0N 159.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 22.6N 162.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 24.0N 169.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 25.0N 175.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

2020-07-25 02:43


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 250242
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 19
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 PM HST Fri Jul 24 2020

...MAJOR HURRICANE DOUGLAS STILL MOVING TOWARD HAWAII...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR OAHU...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 145.1W
ABOUT 665 MI...1070 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 865 MI...1390 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the island of Oahu.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including the islands of Maui, Lanai, Molokai and
Kahoolawe
* Oahu

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the main Hawaiian Islands, and in the
Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument, should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 145.1 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h). This motion
is expected to continue through Saturday, followed by a slight
decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the west. On the
forecast track, Douglas will be near the main Hawaiian Islands
Saturday night through Sunday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Douglas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected to continue
through the weekend. However, Douglas is still forecast to
be near hurricane strength when it nears the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on the Big Island late
Saturday night and Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by Saturday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible over Maui
County Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning
late Saturday night. Hurricane conditions are possible on Oahu
Sunday night, with tropical storm conditions possible Sunday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas are expected to affect
the Hawaiian Islands this weekend. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions for a couple of
days.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late Saturday night
through Monday. Total rain accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are possible, especially
in higher terrain. This rain may result in life-threatening
flash flooding and land slides.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-07-25 02:33


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 250233
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
0300 UTC SAT JUL 25 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ISLAND OF OAHU.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
* OAHU

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND IN THE
PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT...SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 145.1W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 145.1W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 144.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.8N 147.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 20.0N 150.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.8N 153.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.4N 156.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 22.0N 159.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 22.6N 162.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 24.0N 169.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 25.0N 175.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 145.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 25/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

2020-07-24 23:48


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 242348
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
200 PM HST Fri Jul 24 2020

...MAJOR HURRICANE DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 144.3W
ABOUT 725 MI...1165 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 930 MI...1495 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Hawaii County
* Maui County, including Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM HST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 144.3 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). This motion
is expected to continue for the next two days, followed by a slight
decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the west. On the
forecast track, Douglas will be near the main Hawaiian Islands on
Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Douglas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected to continue
through the weekend. However, Douglas is still forecast to
be near hurricane strength when it nears the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115
miles (185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on the Big Island late
Saturday night and Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by Saturday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible over Maui
County Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning
late Saturday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas are expected to begin
affecting portions of the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions for a couple of days.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late Saturday night
through Monday. Total rain accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are possible, especially
in higher terrain. This rain may result in life-threatening
flash flooding and land slides.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-07-24 20:58


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 242057
TCDCP2

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 24 2020

After a period of rapid intensification yesterday, Douglas'
satellite appearance has degraded somewhat over the past 12 hours
or so. However, a fairly large but ragged and cloud-filled eye is
still noted in conventional satellite images. Subjective Dvorak
current intensity estimates were 5.5/105 kt from SAB and HFO, 5.1/93
kt from ADT, while SATCON estimated was near 100 kt. A blend of
these led to an initial intensity estimate of 100 kt for this
advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is a steady 295/16 kt, as
Douglas continues to be steered by a robust mid-level ridge
centered to the northeast. As Douglas draws closer to the main
Hawaiian Islands, it will be reaching the western periphery of the
ridge, and model guidance indicates that this will allow the cyclone
to gain some latitude over the next 2 days, with some reduction in
forward speed. Thereafter, the mid-level ridge is forecast to
subtly build to the north of Douglas, potentially inducing a turn
toward the west, with some increase in forward speed. The updated
track forecast is nearly identical to the previous, lies along the
southern side of the guidance, and is very close to ECMWF guidance
that has been performing well thus far with Douglas. On the
forecast track, Douglas will move dangerously close to the Hawaiian
Islands. A Hurricane Watch has been issued for Maui County and
the Big Island, and may need to be expanded to additional areas
later today or tonight.

The intensity forecast continues to anticipate a slow but steady
weakening of the cyclone as it traverses cooler waters, and later
encounters increased vertical wind shear as waters warm somewhat
near the Hawaiian Islands. Little overall change to the ongoing
forecast was made, and the updated forecast closely follows the
GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS guidance, and is close to the intensity
consensus IVCN.

Key Messages

1. Douglas will continue to quickly approach the main Hawaiian
Islands, passing dangerously close to, or over, the islands on
Sunday. Dangerous, life-threatening surf will arrive ahead of the
hurricane on Saturday. Heavy rain and increasing winds are possible
on the Big Island starting Saturday night, and could quickly spread
up the chain Sunday.

2. It is important not to focus on the exact forecast track. Due
to Douglas' angle of approach to Hawaii, any small changes in the
track could lead to significant differences in where the worst
weather will occur.

3. Wind gusts near mountains and higher terrain can be
significantly enhanced as they blow downslope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 17.0N 143.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 17.9N 145.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 19.1N 149.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 20.0N 151.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 20.8N 154.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 21.3N 157.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 21.8N 160.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 23.0N 166.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 24.2N 172.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

2020-07-24 20:38


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 242038
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
2100 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII AND
FOR MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI AND KAHOOLAWE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
* MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING MAUI...LANAI...MOLOKAI AND KAHOOLAWE

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 143.5W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 143.5W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 142.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.9N 145.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.1N 149.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 20.0N 151.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.8N 154.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 50SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.3N 157.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 21.8N 160.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 23.0N 166.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 24.2N 172.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 143.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT32 PHFO/HFOTCPCP2...AT 25/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

2020-07-24 20:36


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 242036
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 18
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 24 2020

...MAJOR HURRICANE DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 143.5W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 985 MI...1585 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A Hurricane Watch has been issued for the Big Island of Hawaii and
for Maui County, including Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNING IN EFFECT...

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Big Island of Hawaii
* Maui County, including Maui, Lanai, Molokai and Kahoolawe

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 to 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by the National Weather Service office in
Honolulu Hawaii.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 143.5 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). This
motion is expected to continue for the next two days, followed by
a slight decrease in forward speed and a turn toward the west.
On the forecast track, Douglas will be near the main Hawaiian
Islands on Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Douglas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual and steady weakening is expected to
continue through the weekend. However, Douglas is still forecast to
be near hurricane strength when it nears the islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible on the Big Island late
Saturday night and Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible
by Saturday evening. Hurricane conditions are possible over Maui
county Sunday, with tropical storm conditions possible beginning
late Saturday night.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas are expected to begin
affecting portions of the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions for a couple of days.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late Saturday night
through Monday. Total rain accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches are possible, especially
in higher terrain. This rain may result in life-threatening
flash flooding and land slides.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM HST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-07-24 20:34


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 242200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 16.7N 142.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.7N 142.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.9N 145.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.1N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.0N 151.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.8N 154.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.3N 157.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.8N 160.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 23.0N 166.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 24.2N 172.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
242200Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 143.8W.
24JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 729 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 250400Z, 251000Z, 251600Z AND 252200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-24 15:09


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 241600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 16.1N 141.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 141.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.4N 144.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.6N 147.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.6N 150.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.5N 153.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.1N 156.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.7N 158.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 22.5N 165.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 23.5N 171.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241600Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 142.2W. 24JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 828 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 242200Z, 250400Z,
251000Z AND 251600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-24 14:40


Original Message :

WTPA42 PHFO 241438
TCDCP2

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 AM HST Fri Jul 24 2020

Douglas remains a powerful hurricane early this morning, although
the satellite presentation has degraded quite a bit since last
evening, with eye of the tropical cyclone now nearly completely
cloud filled. The latest current intensity estimates from the
satellite agencies came in with 5.5 (102 knots) from PHFO and SAB,
5.0 (90 knots) from JTWC, while ADT came in at 5.9 (112 knots).
Taking a blend of the estimates above and accounting for recent
satellite trends, the intensity with this advisory will be lowered
to 105 knots. Douglas continues to move rapidly to the
west-northwest, with an initial motion set at 295/16 knots.

Hurricane Douglas recently moved over slightly cooler sea surface
temperatures (SSTs) of around 78F, and this seems to have been
enough to lead to the weakening seen in satellite imagery. Despite
relatively low vertical wind shear values forecast to affect the
tropical cyclone during the next couple days, SSTs will remain
unfavorable for intensification. The official intensity forecast
calls for steady weakening during the next couple days as Douglas
nears Hawaii, with the cyclone expected to be a category 1
hurricane or strong tropical storm approaching the eastern end of
the state late Saturday night or Sunday. Continued weakening is then
forecast as Douglas tracks westward over or near the other
main Hawaiian islands and west of the state early next week.
Depending on the amount of interaction with the high terrain of the
Big Island and Maui, the tropical cyclone could weaken faster than
indicated in the official forecast, which follows a blend of the
corrected consensus and statistical model guidance.

Douglas is forecast to move rapidly off to the west-northwest
during the next couple days toward a weakness in the sub-tropical
ridge north of the Hawaiian islands. The subtropical ridge is
forecast to strengthen north of the state over the weekend, and this
should steer the tropical cyclone westward over or very near the
Hawaiian Islands Sunday through Monday, before exiting to the west
of the state. The official forecast continues to hug the southern
end of the guidance envelope out of respect for the ECMWF, but if
model trends continue, this track may need to be adjusted further
northward in future advisory packages.

Based on the latest intensity and track forecasts, Hurricane or
Tropical Storm watches will likely be required for portions of the
eastern end of the state (Big Island and the Maui County Islands)
later today.


Key Messages:

1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the main
Hawaiian Islands Sunday through Monday, and there is an increasing
chance that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could
affect portions of the state beginning late Saturday night or
Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor
the progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve
during the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 16.4N 141.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 17.4N 144.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 18.6N 147.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 19.6N 150.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 20.5N 153.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 21.1N 156.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 21.7N 158.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 22.5N 165.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 23.5N 171.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Jelsema

>

2020-07-24 14:38


Original Message :

WTPA32 PHFO 241437
TCPCP2

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 17
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP082020
500 AM HST Fri Jul 24 2020

...MAJOR HURRICANE DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 141.9W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1100 MI...1765 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Douglas. Watches will likely be required later today for portions of
the island chain.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 141.9 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). This
motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a gradual
decrease in forward speed and a slight turn toward the west.
On the forecast track, Douglas will approach the eastern Hawaiian
Islands late Saturday night or Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Douglas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected to continue
today through the weekend. However, Douglas is still forecast to be
near hurricane strength as it approaches the eastern end of
the Hawaiian Island chain late Saturday night or Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Strong winds associated with Douglas are expected to
affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands as early as late Saturday
night or Sunday, through the day Monday. Tropical Storm or
Hurricane Watches will likely be required for portions of the state
later today.

SURF: Large swells generated by Douglas are expected to begin
affecting portions of the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Douglas is expected to
affect portions of the Hawaiian Islands from late Saturday night
through Monday. Total rain accumulations of 6 to 10 inches with
isolated maximum totals of 15 inches will be possible, especially
across elevated terrain. This rain may result in life-threatening
flash flooding and land slides, as well as rapid water level rises
on small streams.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP2 and WMO header WTPA32 PHFO.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Jelsema


>

2020-07-24 14:37


Original Message :

WTPA22 PHFO 241436
TCMCP2

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP082020
1500 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DOUGLAS. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY FOR PORTIONS
OF THE ISLAND CHAIN.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 141.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 45NE 35SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 50SW 85NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 170SE 120SW 170NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 141.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 141.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.4N 144.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.6N 147.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.6N 150.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.5N 153.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 21.1N 156.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 21.7N 158.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 22.5N 165.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 23.5N 171.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 141.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER JELSEMA



>

2020-07-24 09:24


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 241000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240600Z --- NEAR 15.3N 139.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 139.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.7N 142.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.9N 145.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 19.0N 148.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.9N 151.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.5N 154.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.0N 157.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 22.0N 163.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 22.4N 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
241000Z POSITION NEAR 15.8N 140.5W. 24JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 930 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 240600Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241600Z, 242200Z,
250400Z AND 251000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-24 08:51


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 240848
TCDEP3

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2020

Douglas continues to look impressive in satellite images, with a
clear eye and symmetric convection in all quadrants. Broad outflow
channels extend about 300 n mi in every direction from the cyclone,
indicative of nearly zero wind shear. The latest Dvorak CI values
from TAFB and SAB, as well as the recent UW/CIMSS ADT estimates
are all T6.0, which supports keeping the initial advisory intensity
at 115 kt.

Douglas is crossing the 26 C isotherm, and will continue to move
over relatively cooler waters of about 25 C over the next day or so.
This should cause the cyclone to begin weakening very soon. In about
48 h, Douglas is forecast to move back across the 26 C isotherm, but
at the same time the cyclone is forecast to begin encountering a
drier, more stable airmass and increasing vertical wind shear.
Despite the warmer waters, these other more hostile environmental
factors are expected to cause Douglas to gradually weaken for the
remainder of the 5-day forecast period. The latest NHC forecast is
changed little from the previous advisory, and is very close to a
blend of the corrected consensus HCCA and the IVCN/ICON consensus
aids.

Douglas is still moving quickly west-northwestward or 295/16 kt.
A mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should keep moving
the cyclone in the same general direction over the next couple of
days. Over the weekend, as Douglas approaches the Hawaiian Islands,
a more westward motion is forecast as another ridge builds to the
north of the cyclone. There is some notable spread in the model
guidance now compared to yesterday as Douglas approaches the
Hawaiian Islands. The faster and southernmost guidance from the
ECMWF takes the center of the cyclone over the big island, while the
northernmost GFS and HWRF take the cyclone just north of the island
chain. The other guidance, including the track consensus aids lie in
between those solutions. The latest NHC forecast was nudged
slightly northward between 48 h and 96 h, but still remains south
of the consensus aids during those time periods. Otherwise, the NHC
forecast was little changed from the previous one.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center
on Douglas. Future information on this system can be found in
Forecast/Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center
beginning at 1500 UTC under AWIPS header HFOTCMCP2 and WMO header
WTPA22 PHFO. For information specific to the Hawaiian Islands,
users should continue to consult products from the National Weather
Service Forecast Office in Honolulu, Hawaii, at www.weather.gov/hfo.


Key Messages:

1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect
portions of the state beginning Saturday night or Sunday.
Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the
progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over
the next few days. Watches could be issued on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 15.7N 140.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 16.7N 142.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 17.9N 145.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 19.0N 148.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 19.9N 151.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/1800Z 20.5N 154.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII
72H 27/0600Z 21.0N 157.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...NEAR HAWAII
96H 28/0600Z 22.0N 163.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 22.4N 170.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-07-24 08:49


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 240847
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2020

...POWERFUL HURRICANE DOUGLAS ENTERING THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 140.3W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1630 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Douglas. Watches could be issued on Friday for a portion of the
area.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 15.7 North, longitude 140.3 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a gradual
decrease in forward speed and a slight turn toward the west. On the
forecast track Douglas will approach the Hawaiian Islands Saturday
night, and be near those Islands on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Douglas is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected to begin on
Friday and continue through the weekend. Douglas is forecast to be
near hurricane strength when it approaches the Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Douglas are expected to begin affecting
portions of the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 500 AM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP2 and
WMO header WTPA32 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-07-24 08:49


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 240847
TCMEP3

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020
0900 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DOUGLAS. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 140.3W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 140.3W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 139.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.7N 142.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.9N 145.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.0N 148.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.9N 151.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.5N 154.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 21.0N 157.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 22.0N 163.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 22.4N 170.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 140.3W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER BEGINNING AT 1500 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP2...WMO
HEADER WTPA22 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-07-24 02:59


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 240400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
240000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 138.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 138.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.9N 141.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.1N 144.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.2N 147.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.2N 150.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.0N 153.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.5N 156.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.3N 161.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 21.8N 168.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
240400Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 139.1W.
24JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1026 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
240000Z IS 37 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 241000Z, 241600Z, 242200Z AND
250400Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-24 02:46


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 240243
TCDEP3

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2020

Douglas remains a well organized hurricane in visible and infrared
satellite imagery. The 15-nmi-wide eye remains very distinct and
the surrounding cloud tops have cooled since the previous advisory.
Although not evident in conventional satellite imagery, a recent
AMSR-2 microwave satellite image showed evidence of concentric
eyewalls. Subjective Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are
6.0 (115 kt) and recent UW/CIMSS ADT estimates have been creeping
upward, and now also close to T6.0. Based on these estimates,
the initial wind speed has been raised to 115 kt, making Douglas a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.

Douglas has likely reached its peak intensity as it will be moving
over cooler SSTs during the next day or so. Although the predicted
track of the hurricane will bring it over warmer waters when
Douglas approaches the Hawaiian Islands, vertical shear is forecast
to increase at that time. This is expected to result in continued
gradual weakening, however Douglas is forecast to be near
hurricane strength when it moves close to Hawaii. Despite the
slight increase in the initial intensity, the updated NHC wind
speed forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory through 36
hours, and then follows the intensity consensus guidance
thereafter.

Douglas continues moving quickly west-northwestward or 295/16 kt.
The hurricane is forecast to remain on this heading with some
slight reduction in forward speed during the next day or so as it
remains to the south of a large mid-level ridge. After that time,
Douglas is forecast to turn westward to the south of another strong
mid-level ridge the is predicted to build well north of the
Hawaiian Islands later in the weekend. The new NHC track forecast
is very similar to the previous advisory and lies just south of the
various consensus aids out of respect of the ECMWF and its ensemble
mean which lie along the southern edge of the track envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect
portions of the state beginning Saturday night or Sunday.
Interests on the Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the
progress of Douglas and the official forecasts as they evolve over
the next few days. Watches could be issued on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 14.9N 138.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 15.9N 141.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 17.1N 144.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 18.2N 147.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 19.2N 150.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 26/1200Z 20.0N 153.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 20.5N 156.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 21.3N 161.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 21.8N 168.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-24 02:45


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 240243
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 PM HST Thu Jul 23 2020

...POWERFUL HURRICANE DOUGLAS SLIGHTLY STRONGER AS IT APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 138.8W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1810 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...954 MB...28.17 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Douglas. Watches could be issued on Friday for a portion of the
area.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 138.8 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next few days with a gradual
decrease in forward speed and a slight turn toward the west. On the
forecast track Douglas will approach the Hawaiian Islands Saturday
night, and be near those Islands on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h)
with higher gusts. Douglas is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening expected to
begin on Friday and continue through the weekend. Douglas is
forecast to be near hurricane strength when it approaches the
Hawaiian Islands.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 954 mb (28.17 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Douglas are expected to begin affecting
portions of the Hawaiian Islands on Saturday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-07-24 02:44


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 240242
TCMEP3

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020
0300 UTC FRI JUL 24 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DOUGLAS. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 138.8W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 954 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 138.8W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 138.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 141.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.1N 144.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.2N 147.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.2N 150.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 20.0N 153.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 20.5N 156.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.3N 161.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 21.8N 168.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 138.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

2020-07-23 21:04


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 232200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231800Z --- NEAR 13.8N 136.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 136.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.0N 139.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.2N 142.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.4N 145.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.5N 149.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.4N 152.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.1N 154.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.0N 160.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 21.5N 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
232200Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 137.6W.
23JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1125 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
231800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 240400Z, 241000Z, 241600Z AND
242200Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-23 20:45


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 232042
TCDEP3

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020

Visible satellite images show that Douglas is quite a powerful
hurricane. The eye has become more crisp during the day, and
infrared data also show that the eyewall convection has deepened.
The initial wind speed is raised to 110 kt, which matches a blend of
the latest TAFB/SAB Dvorak estimates. Douglas is beginning to move
across the typical cool SST gradient of the eastern Pacific,
implying that the hurricane is probably near its peak intensity.
The cyclone should only slowly weaken on Friday and Saturday due to
cooler waters along the predicted track and the vertical shear
remaining low. As the hurricane approaches the Hawaiian Islands on
Sunday, the SSTs increase but so does the shear. Since the shear
generally dominates over marginally warm waters, a continued
weakening is forecast. However, almost all of the guidance shows
Douglas near hurricane strength as it moves close to Hawaii.
The model guidance remains consistent, and no significant changes
were made to the NHC wind speed prediction.

Douglas continues moving fairly quickly toward the west-northwest. A
large mid-level ridge over the eastern and central Pacific should
continue to steer the hurricane on this general course and speed for
the next couple of days, with some deceleration and a westward turn
by late in the weekend. The guidance is a little more divergent
than the previous cycle, with a subtle northward model trend at
longer range due to a weaker ridge forecast north of Hawaii, though
the ECMWF and its ensembles have shifted a little southward. Given
these mixed signals in the guidance, very little change is made to
the previous NHC track forecast, and the new official forecast lies
on the southwest side of the model envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect
portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas
and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days.
Watches could be issued on Friday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 14.1N 137.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 15.0N 139.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 16.2N 142.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 17.4N 145.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 18.5N 149.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 26/0600Z 19.4N 152.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 20.1N 154.9W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII
96H 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 21.5N 167.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-07-23 20:44


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 232042
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020

...DOUGLAS STRENGTHENING AS IT APPROACHES THE CENTRAL PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 137.3W
ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...959 MB...28.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Douglas. Watches could be issued on Friday for a portion of the
area.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Douglas was located
near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 137.3 West. Douglas is moving
toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days with a gradual decrease
in forward speed and a slight turn toward the west. On the forecast
track Douglas will approach the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Douglas is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Little change in strength is
expected today, with gradual weakening expected to begin on Friday
and continue through the weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb (28.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-07-23 20:44


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 232042
TCMEP3

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020
2100 UTC THU JUL 23 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DOUGLAS. WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED ON FRIDAY FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 137.3W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 137.3W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 136.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.0N 139.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.2N 142.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.4N 145.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 149.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.4N 152.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 20.1N 154.9W...NEAR HAWAII
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 21.5N 167.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 137.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-07-23 15:05


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 231600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
231200Z --- NEAR 13.3N 135.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 135.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 14.5N 138.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.8N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.0N 144.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.1N 147.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.1N 150.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.8N 153.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.7N 159.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 21.5N 165.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
231600Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 136.2W. 23JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1212 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 231200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
232200Z, 240400Z, 241000Z AND 241600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-23 14:49


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 231447
TCDEP3

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020

The intensity of Douglas has leveled off in the overnight hours
with the eyewall convection weakening, but the eye temperatures
becoming a lot warmer, suggesting that the system has become a
little more steady state. The wind speed is kept at 105 kt, which
nearly matches the latest CIMSS satellite consensus (SATCON). The
cyclone has less than a day over warm water left to intensify before
it encounters SSTs less than 26C. Douglas should only slowly
weaken thereafter during the next few days due to the cooler waters
along the predicted track since the vertical shear should remain
low through Saturday. As the cyclone approaches the Hawaiian
Islands on Sunday, while the SSTs increase, so does the shear, and
thus a continued weakening is forecast. Model guidance is
consistent from the last forecast, and no significant changes were
made to the NHC wind speed prediction.

Douglas has been moving a little faster to the west-northwest, or
290/17. A large mid-level ridge over the eastern and central
Pacific should continue to steer the hurricane on this general
course and speed for the next couple of days, with some
deceleration and a westward turn by late in the weekend. While the
guidance remains in very good agreement, the only significant
change to note is that this forecast is a bit faster than the
previous one, but not as fast as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean.

Key Messages:

1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds, dangerous surf, and heavy rainfall could affect
portions of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the
Hawaiian Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas
and the official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 13.6N 135.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 14.5N 138.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 15.8N 141.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 17.0N 144.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 18.1N 147.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 26/0000Z 19.1N 150.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 19.8N 153.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 20.7N 159.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 21.5N 165.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-07-23 14:47


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 231446
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 AM HST Thu Jul 23 2020

...DOUGLAS MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS A CATEGORY-3
HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 135.9W
ABOUT 1335 MI...2150 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Douglas.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Douglas was located
near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 135.9 West. Douglas is moving
toward the west-northwest near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days with a gradual decrease
in forward speed and a slight turn toward the west.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Douglas is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is possible today before
a gradual weakening starts on Friday and continues through the
weekend.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles
(150 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb (28.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

2020-07-23 14:47


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 231445
TCMEP3

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020
1500 UTC THU JUL 23 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DOUGLAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 135.9W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 964 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..165NE 135SE 135SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 135.9W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 135.1W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.5N 138.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.8N 141.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 144.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.1N 147.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.1N 150.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 19.8N 153.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.7N 159.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.5N 165.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 135.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

2020-07-23 09:19


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 231000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230600Z --- NEAR 12.8N 133.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.8N 133.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.0N 136.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.3N 139.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.5N 142.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.6N 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.6N 148.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.4N 151.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 20.5N 157.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 21.0N 163.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
231000Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 134.3W. 23JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS),
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1321 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
231600Z, 232200Z, 240400Z AND 241000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-23 08:44


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 230842
TCDEP3

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020

Douglas has rapidly intensified since earlier today, with satellite
images showing a ragged, but nearly clear eye surrounded by cold
cloud tops of -70 C. There appears to be a little dry air intrusion
across the northern portion of the circulation, which is limiting
the amount of deep convection wrapping around that part of the eye.
Both Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB have increased to
5.5/100 kt, while the ADT and SATCON estimate averages have
increased to 105 kt. Since the cyclone's appearance has improved
slightly since these estimates arrived, the advisory initial
intensity has been set at 105 kt, making Douglas a major hurricane.

The environmental conditions supporting the rapid intensification
appear at their best at this time as the cyclone is over SSTs of
over 28 C, with low wind shear in a moist air mass. If the cyclone
can fight off the dry air in the northern semicircle, some
additional strengthening is possible, especially early Thursday.
However, Douglas should be gradually moving into a less hospitable
environment for strengthening over the next few days, and in 36 h
the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm and into a
region where the 500-700 mb relative humidity is less than 60
percent. Later on in the forecast period, wind shear is also
expected to be on the increase. These factors should cause the
cyclone to gradually weaken beginning Thursday night. Douglas is
expected to be at or near hurricane intensity as it approaches the
Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, and all interests there should monitor
forecasts as they evolve over the next few days. The NHC forecast
was adjusted higher in the first 12 h based on the initial
intensity, and is very close to the previous forecast after that
time. This intensity forecast closely follows the various consensus
aids.

The initial motion is west-northwest or 295/15. Douglas should
continue on a general west-northwestward motion for the next few
days, steered by a large mid-level ridge extending across much of
the central and eastern North Pacific. The cyclone is then forecast
to turn more toward the west late in the forecast period as it
moves near the Hawaiian Islands. The track guidance is tightly
clustered and the new NHC is little changed from the previous one.

Key Messages:

1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions
of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian
Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the
official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 13.1N 134.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 14.0N 136.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 15.3N 139.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 17.6N 145.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/1800Z 18.6N 148.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 19.4N 151.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 20.5N 157.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 21.0N 163.7W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-07-23 08:43


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 230842
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020

...DOUGLAS BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 134.0W
ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...967 MB...28.56 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Douglas.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 134.0 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Douglas is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is possible on Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by
early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb (28.56 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-07-23 08:43


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 230842
TCMEP3

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020
0900 UTC THU JUL 23 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DOUGLAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 134.0W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 967 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 134.0W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 133.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.0N 136.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.3N 139.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.5N 142.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.6N 145.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.6N 148.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 19.4N 151.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 20.5N 157.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 21.0N 163.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 134.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-07-23 03:26


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 230400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
230000Z --- NEAR 12.3N 131.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 131.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 13.4N 134.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 14.6N 137.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.9N 140.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.1N 143.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.2N 146.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 19.2N 149.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 20.3N 155.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 21.0N 162.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
230400Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 132.8W.
23JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1408 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230000Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 231000Z, 231600Z, 232200Z AND 240400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-23 02:45


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 230243
TCDEP3

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020

Douglas's cloud pattern has improved quickly since the last
advisory, with an eye becoming more distinct within an area of cold
cloud tops and expanding outflow in all quadrants. The initial
intensity has been increased to 85 kt. This is in agreement with
the latest SATCON estimate and a blend of the latest ADT and SATCON
estimates.

The hurricane has another 24 hours or so over SSTs above 28C with
very low vertical shear, and rapid intensification appears to be
underway. Given the current satellite trends and the SHIPS RII
showing a 50 percent chance of a 30-kt intensity increase in 24 h,
the NHC forecast has been increased above the guidance in the short
term, showing the system peaking at 110 kt in 24 h, although timing
the peak intensity during rapid strengthening is quite difficult. By
36 h, SSTs cool along the forecast track but the shear remains low,
which should result in gradual weakening. Late in the period, an
increase in shear and a drier airmass should result in continued
gradual weakening. Douglas is expected to be at or near hurricane
intensity as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands on Sunday, and all
interests there should monitor forecasts as they evolve over the
next few days.

The initial motion estimate is now toward the west-northwest or
285/15. Douglas should continue on a general west-northwestward
motion for the next 72 hours under the influence of an expansive
mid-level ridge extending across much of the central and eastern
North Pacific. The track will turn more toward the west late in the
period as Douglas moves near the Hawaiian Islands. The new NHC track
forecast is very close to the previous one and lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope close to the TVCE multi-model consensus.

Key Messages:

1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions
of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian
Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the
official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 12.5N 132.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 13.4N 134.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 14.6N 137.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 15.9N 140.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 17.1N 143.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/1200Z 18.2N 146.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 19.2N 149.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 20.3N 155.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 21.0N 162.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-07-23 02:44


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 230242
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 PM HST Wed Jul 22 2020

...DOUGLAS STRENGTHENING RAPIDLY...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 132.6W
ABOUT 1570 MI...2530 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Douglas.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 132.6 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours, and Douglas is forecast to become a major hurricane
by Thursday. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb (29.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.

Key messages for Douglas can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brennan

>

2020-07-23 02:44


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 230242
TCMEP3

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020
0300 UTC THU JUL 23 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DOUGLAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.6W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 132.6W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 131.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.4N 134.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.6N 137.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.9N 140.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.1N 143.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.2N 146.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 19.2N 149.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 20.3N 155.5W...NEAR HAWAII
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 21.0N 162.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 132.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

>

2020-07-22 22:07


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 222200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 010
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 08E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221800Z --- NEAR 11.9N 130.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 130.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.7N 132.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 13.8N 135.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.1N 138.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.4N 141.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.6N 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 18.7N 148.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 20.0N 154.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 21.0N 160.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
222200Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 131.2W.
22JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1444 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 230400Z, 231000Z, 231600Z AND 232200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-22 20:41


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 222039
TCDEP3

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020

Douglas's structure has continued to improve, with a more
well-defined eye becoming apparent in visible and microwave
satellite images. Subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB range from T4.0/65 kt and T5.0/90 kt, while the latest
UW-CIMSS ADT is 4.0. Douglas's initial intensity is therefore
raised to 70 kt as a blend of the satellite estimates.

The hurricane has begun to gain some latitude, and the initial
motion is just north of due west, or 275/14 kt. The track forecast
reasoning has not changed since earlier this morning, with a
persistent mid-tropospheric ridge to Douglas's north expected to be
the main driving force for the entire 5-day forecast period.
Douglas is forecast to turn west-northwestward by this evening, and
then maintain that heading with some increase in forward speed
through day 4 as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands. A bend back
to the west is then expected at the end of the forecast period.
The new NHC track forecast lies right along the forecast path from
the previous advisory through 60 hours, although it has been
shifted slightly north on days 3-5 based on an overall shift of the
guidance envelope at those times. Confidence in the track forecast
at this stage is rather high.

Intensity-wise, low shear and sea surface temperature of 28-29C
favor continued strengthening, potentially at a rapid rate for the
next 24 hours. SHIPS, HCCA, and the Florida State Superensemble
all bring the intensity near or at major hurricane strength in
24-36 hours, which qualifies as rapid intensification. The NHC
intensity forecast is in line with these models and lies near the
upper bound of the guidance envelope given the favorable
conditions. Some weakening is expected to begin by 48 hours due to
cooler waters, but since vertical shear is not expected to increase
until around day 4, the weakening rate is likely to be gradual.
This forecast increases the chance that Douglas could maintain
hurricane intensity as it approaches the Hawaiian Islands, and all
interests on the islands should monitor the forecasts as they
evolve over the next few days.

Key Messages:

1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions
of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian
Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas and the
official forecasts as they evolve over the next few days.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 12.1N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 15.1N 138.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 16.4N 141.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/0600Z 17.6N 145.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/1800Z 18.7N 148.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 26/1800Z 20.0N 154.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...NEAR HAWAII
120H 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...NEAR HAWAII

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-07-22 20:40


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 222038
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020

...DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 130.9W
ABOUT 1570 MI...2525 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1690 MI...2715 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Hawaiian Islands should monitor the progress of
Douglas.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Douglas was located
near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 130.9 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected by this evening, and a west-
northwestward motion at a faster forward speed is forecast to
continue into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next day or two, and Douglas could become a major hurricane on
Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105
miles (165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-07-22 20:39


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 222038
TCMEP3

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020
2100 UTC WED JUL 22 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DOUGLAS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 130.9W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..105NE 105SE 90SW 105NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 130.9W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 130.3W

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 12.7N 132.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.8N 135.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.1N 138.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.4N 141.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.6N 145.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 18.7N 148.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 20.0N 154.0W...NEAR HAWAII
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.0N 160.0W...NEAR HAWAII
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 130.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2020-07-22 17:04


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 221600 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 009A CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 009A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 11.6N 128.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 128.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 12.0N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 13.1N 134.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 14.4N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.7N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.0N 143.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.0N 146.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.0N 152.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.0N 158.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221600Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 129.7W.
22JUL20. HURRICANE 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1423
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222200Z, 230400Z, 231000Z AND 231600Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: UPDATED INITIAL POSITION INTENSITY.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-22 16:02


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 221602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 22.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 25.0N 88.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.07.2020 0 25.0N 88.3W 1012 21
0000UTC 23.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GONZALO ANALYSED POSITION : 10.2N 43.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.07.2020 0 10.2N 43.1W 1007 30
0000UTC 23.07.2020 12 10.5N 45.7W 1006 32
1200UTC 23.07.2020 24 10.5N 48.5W 1006 39
0000UTC 24.07.2020 36 10.8N 51.3W 1006 38
1200UTC 24.07.2020 48 10.9N 54.6W 1004 39
0000UTC 25.07.2020 60 11.3N 57.9W 1004 42
1200UTC 25.07.2020 72 11.6N 61.4W 1005 43
0000UTC 26.07.2020 84 12.3N 64.9W 1006 42
1200UTC 26.07.2020 96 13.2N 68.6W 1007 43
0000UTC 27.07.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 11.4N 128.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 22.07.2020 0 11.4N 128.9W 994 46
0000UTC 23.07.2020 12 12.0N 131.0W 991 49
1200UTC 23.07.2020 24 13.3N 134.0W 988 52
0000UTC 24.07.2020 36 14.6N 137.5W 987 53
1200UTC 24.07.2020 48 15.7N 140.9W 983 63
0000UTC 25.07.2020 60 17.0N 144.2W 984 63
1200UTC 25.07.2020 72 18.2N 147.4W 989 55
0000UTC 26.07.2020 84 19.4N 150.6W 995 51
1200UTC 26.07.2020 96 20.0N 153.7W 1000 48
0000UTC 27.07.2020 108 20.5N 157.0W 1007 43
1200UTC 27.07.2020 120 20.5N 160.5W 1009 31
0000UTC 28.07.2020 132 20.9N 164.1W 1011 29
1200UTC 28.07.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 221601

>

2020-07-22 15:27


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 221600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 009
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
221200Z --- NEAR 11.6N 128.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.6N 128.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 12.0N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 13.1N 134.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 14.4N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 15.7N 140.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.0N 143.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.0N 146.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 19.0N 152.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 20.0N 158.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221600Z POSITION NEAR 11.7N 129.7W.
22JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1587
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 222200Z, 230400Z, 231000Z AND 231600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-22 14:59


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 221456
TCDEP3

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020

Douglas has resumed strengthening, after remaining steady state for
almost 24 hours. The system has developed a ragged eye during the
past couple of hours, although the cirrus from the inner-core
convection has been obscuring that feature somewhat. There is a
wide range among the satellite intensity estimates--between 55 kt
and 77 kt--and the latest objective guidance is right at the
hurricane threshold. Therefore, Douglas has been upgraded to a
65-kt hurricane, the first of the 2020 eastern Pacific season.
During the period of reliable records, this is the 4th latest date
on which the first hurricane of the season has formed.

Douglas continues to move westward, or 265/13 kt, due south of a
mid-level ridge which extends from the Baja California peninsula to
140W. This ridge is not expected to change much in strength or
position in the coming days, and Douglas is therefore expected to
move westward or west-northwestward, gradually gaining latitude,
during the entire forecast period. There is very little spread
among the track models, although the new suite of models is a
little bit faster compared to the previous forecast. The updated
NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly, although it should be
noted that the overall forecast path has changed very little.

With Douglas's improved structure, low shear and warm sea surface
temperatures (28-29C) should support further strengthening during
the next 36 hours or so. There's still a significant chance of
rapid intensification during that period, with the GFS- and
ECWMF-based SHIPS RI guidance both over 50 percent. After that
time, oceanic heat content values fall below zero along Douglas's
forecast track, and it is likely that the hurricane would begin to
gradually weaken, although not considerably so since vertical shear
is not expected to increase until about day 4. SHIPS, HCCA, and
the Florida State Superensemble are in very good agreement,
especially during the first part of the forecast period, and so the
NHC intensity forecast closely follows those solutions. This new
forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity compared to
previous forecasts.


Key Messages:

1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions
of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian
Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 11.8N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 12.0N 131.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 13.1N 134.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 14.4N 137.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 15.7N 140.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 17.0N 143.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 18.0N 146.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 19.0N 152.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 20.0N 158.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-07-22 14:57


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 221455
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Douglas Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020

...DOUGLAS RESUMES STRENGTHENING AND BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF
THE 2020 EASTERN PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 129.5W
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1785 MI...2870 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Douglas was
located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 129.5 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through the day. A turn toward the
west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected
tonight, and this motion should continue for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next day or two. Some weakening could begin on Friday once Douglas
begins to move over cooler waters.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

2020-07-22 14:57


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 221455
TCMEP3

HURRICANE DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020
1500 UTC WED JUL 22 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 129.5W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 129.5W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 128.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.0N 131.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.1N 134.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.4N 137.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.7N 140.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.0N 143.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 146.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 19.0N 152.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 20.0N 158.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 129.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2020-07-22 09:16


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 221000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 008
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220600Z --- NEAR 11.9N 127.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.9N 127.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.0N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 12.9N 132.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.1N 135.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.5N 137.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
241800Z --- 16.7N 140.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.8N 143.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 19.1N 149.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 19.8N 155.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
221000Z POSITION NEAR 11.9N 128.2W.
22JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1664
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221600Z, 222200Z, 230400Z AND 231000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-22 08:36


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 220834
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020

The overall appearance of Douglas has changed little over the past
several hours. Satellite images show a continuation of dry air
trying to be worked out of the eastern portion of the cyclone's
circulation. The latest satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB indicate that the initial advisory intensity remains 55 kt.

The majority of intensity guidance continues to suggest that Douglas
will soon overcome the dry air that has been holding the cyclone
back from strengthening. And, the system is forecast to remain in a
favorable environment for intensification for the next day or so.
Beyond 36 h, the combination of cooler SSTs and dry air should
cause Douglas to slowly weaken. The latest NHC forecast is a blend
of the corrected consensus HCCA and the ICON and IVCN consensus
aids. Based on this forecast, Douglas should become a hurricane
sometime on Wednesday.

Douglas is moving westward at around 13 kt. The ridge to the north
of the cyclone is forecast to become oriented east-to-west while
building westward over the next day or so. This should induce a
gradual turn to the west-northwest along with a slight increase in
forward speed. This general west-northwest motion is then forecast
to continue through the remainder of the 5-day period. The model
guidance has trended a bit faster throughout the forecast period,
and the official forecast now lies in between the clustered
consensus aids and the previous official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 11.9N 128.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 12.0N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 12.9N 132.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 14.1N 135.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 15.5N 137.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 24/1800Z 16.7N 140.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 17.8N 143.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/0600Z 19.1N 149.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/0600Z 19.8N 155.3W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-07-22 08:35


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 220833
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020

...DOUGLAS STILL A TROPICAL STORM ...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.9N 128.0W
ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1875 MI...3020 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 11.9 North, longitude 128.0 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest along with an increase in forward speed is forecast
to occur by late Wednesday. The west-northwestward motion is
forecast to continue at least through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Douglas is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-07-22 08:35


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 220833
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020
0900 UTC WED JUL 22 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 128.0W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 128.0W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 127.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.0N 129.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 12.9N 132.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.1N 135.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.5N 137.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.7N 140.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 17.8N 143.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 19.1N 149.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 19.8N 155.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.9N 128.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-07-22 04:02


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 220401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 22.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 85.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.07.2020 23.9N 85.8W WEAK
12UTC 22.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 07L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.8N 40.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.07.2020 9.8N 40.9W WEAK
12UTC 22.07.2020 10.2N 43.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2020 10.7N 45.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.07.2020 10.5N 48.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.07.2020 10.6N 51.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2020 10.8N 54.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.07.2020 11.0N 57.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.07.2020 11.3N 60.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.07.2020 12.0N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.07.2020 13.1N 67.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS ANALYSED POSITION : 11.9N 126.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP082020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 22.07.2020 11.9N 126.1W MODERATE
12UTC 22.07.2020 11.4N 128.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.07.2020 11.9N 130.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.07.2020 13.1N 133.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 24.07.2020 14.4N 137.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.07.2020 15.6N 140.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.07.2020 16.7N 143.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.07.2020 17.8N 146.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.07.2020 18.6N 149.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.07.2020 19.1N 153.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.07.2020 19.1N 157.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.07.2020 19.7N 160.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 220401

>

2020-07-22 03:25


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 220400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 007
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
220000Z --- NEAR 12.1N 126.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.1N 126.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.1N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 12.6N 130.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 13.6N 133.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 15.1N 136.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.4N 138.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 17.5N 141.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 18.8N 147.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 19.4N 153.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
220400Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 126.9W.
22JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1732
NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 221000Z, 221600Z, 222200Z AND 230400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-22 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 220233
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020

This afternoon's satellite presentation reveals a tropical
cyclone that's struggling with the inhibiting factors from
mid-level dry air intrusion. Cloud tops near the center of
circulation have warmed considerably during the past few hours, and
the primary convective band in the east semicircle has become a bit
fragmented. A blend of an earlier SATCON of 52 kt, an ADT objective
estimate of 51 kt and a Dvorak satellite classification of T3.5
from both TAFB and SAB supports holding the initial intensity at 55
kt, although the aforementioned recent changes in the cloud
pattern may consider this as a bit generous.

The better performing HFIP HCCA and IVCN multi-model intensity
guidance still show Douglas shaking off the dry air invasion and
strengthening into a hurricane in 12 hours, and the official
forecast reflects this. The consensus intensity models and the
FV3/GFS SHIPS show the cyclone reaching a peak intensity in around
two days. Afterward, Douglas will be moving over 25-deg-C oceanic
temperatures and into stable air mass. These negative
contributions should, therefore, induce a slow weakening trend
through day 5.

The initial motion is estimated to be westward, or 270/12 kt within
the mid-tropospheric easterly steering flow provided by a
subtropical ridge anchored to the north of Douglas. This ridge is
forecast to gradually build westward in response to a retreating
large cut-off low near the Hawaiian Islands. As a result, Douglas
should progressively turn West-northwestward by late Wednesday.
and this general motion is forecast to continue for the remainder
of the 5-day forecast period. The official NHC forecast is quite
similar to the previous one with only a slight adjustment to the
right beyond 72 hours through 120 hours in order to conform to
the various consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 12.1N 126.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 12.1N 128.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 12.6N 130.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 13.6N 133.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 15.1N 136.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 24/1200Z 16.4N 138.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 17.5N 141.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/0000Z 18.8N 147.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/0000Z 19.4N 153.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-07-22 02:33


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 220231
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 PM HST Tue Jul 21 2020

...DOUGLAS MOVING DUE WEST WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH ...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 126.7W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2145 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 1955 MI...3145 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 126.7 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest and some acceleration is forecast late Wednesday.
The west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue at least
through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Douglas could become a hurricane tonight or early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2020-07-22 02:32


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 220231
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020
0300 UTC WED JUL 22 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 126.7W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 126.7W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 126.1W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.1N 128.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.6N 130.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.6N 133.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.1N 136.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.4N 138.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N 141.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 18.8N 147.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 19.4N 153.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 126.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

2020-07-21 20:39


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 212037
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020

Douglas appears to have been trying to scour out a little bit of
dry air on its western side during the day, although recent visible
images suggest that deep convection is attempting to wrap entirely
around the center. Because the convective pattern didn't change
much from earlier, Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB remain
T3.5/55 kt, so the initial intensity is held steady on this
advisory.

Strong ridging to the north of Douglas continues to impart a
west-southwestward motion of the cyclone, or 255/13 kt. As
mentioned this morning, the ridge is likely to take on a more
east-west orientation as a mid-/upper-level low northeast of the
Hawaiian Islands retrogrades westward, and this pattern evolution
will allow Douglas to turn westward by tonight and then
west-northwestward by late Wednesday. That general motion is
forecast to continue for the remainder of the 5-day forecast
period. The track guidance still showcases a faster ECMWF and
slower GFS and HWRF solutions, and the overall envelope and
model consensus aids have again nudged northward. The updated
track forecast is therefore a little north of the previous one,
mainly after 48 hours through day 5.

Once deep convection can isolate Douglas's center from the
ambient environment, low shear and warm sea surface temperatures of
28-29 degrees Celsius should allow intensification to resume.
Despite this morning's hiatus in strengthening, the SHIPS Rapid
Intensification (RI) guidance continues to key in on a significant
chance of RI during the next day or two. Therefore, the intensity
forecast from this morning has been left unchanged, and it still
generally lies between the HCCA and Florida State Superensemble,
closer to the higher end of the guidance envelope. Douglas should
reach its peak intensity in about 48 hours, after which time
oceanic heat content values drop to zero, which should cause some
gradual weakening.

Based on a partial ASCAT-A pass, Douglas's tropical-storm-force
wind radii were increased on the northern side.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 12.1N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 11.9N 127.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 12.1N 129.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 13.0N 131.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 14.4N 134.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 24/0600Z 15.7N 137.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 16.9N 140.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/1800Z 18.5N 146.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1800Z 19.0N 151.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-07-21 20:39


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 212037
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020

...DOUGLAS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 125.4W
ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 2035 MI...3280 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 125.4 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-southwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn
toward the west at a slightly slower forward speed is expected by
this evening, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest and some
acceleration late Wednesday. The west-northwestward motion is
forecast to continue at least through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days,
and Douglas could become a hurricane later today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-07-21 20:37


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 212036
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020
2100 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 125.4W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 125.4W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 124.8W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 11.9N 127.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.1N 129.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.0N 131.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 134.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.7N 137.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 16.9N 140.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 18.5N 146.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 19.0N 151.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 125.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2020-07-21 15:19


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 211600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 12.6N 123.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 123.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 12.1N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 12.1N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 12.6N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
231200Z --- 13.6N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
240000Z --- 14.9N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
241200Z --- 16.1N 139.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 18.0N 145.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 18.5N 151.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211600Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 124.4W.
21JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1862
NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 212200Z, 220400Z, 221000Z AND 221600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-21 14:41


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 211438
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020

A recent SSMIS microwave pass indicated that Douglas's low-level
center is located very near the head of a broken band of convection
which curls around the southern, western, and northern side of the
circulation. This center is also now embedded beneath a Central
Dense overcast in infrared imagery, near an area of cold
overshooting cloud tops. TAFB and SAB Dvorak classifications have
both risen to T3.5, and Douglas's initial intensity is therefore
raised to 55 kt.

Douglas continues to dip west-southwestward, or 255/13 kt, due to
strong mid-level ridging to its north. A mid- to upper-level low
located northeast of the Hawaiian Islands is forecast to retrograde
westward over the next few days, which will allow the ridge to take
on a more east-west orientation. As a result, Douglas is expected
to turn westward later today and then move west-northwestward
beginning overnight Wednesday into the weekend. The track guidance
all agrees on this scenario, but there are some speed differences,
bookended by slower GFS and HWRF solutions and a faster ECMWF
solution. Overall, however, the new NHC forecast remains very
close to the multi-model consensus aids, and no significant changes
were made compared to the previous forecast, except maybe a slight
northward adjustment on days 4 and 5.

The low-shear, warm sea surface temperature environment within
which Douglas is moving is a recipe for continued strengthening,
potentially at a rapid rate, for the next 48 hours. The intensity
guidance has been trending higher, and the latest SHIPS Rapid
Intensification (RI) indices are highlighting the increased chance
of RI. For example, there is currently a 50/50 shot that Douglas's
winds will increase by 25 kt within the next 24 hours, and a 40-50
percent chance of a 30-kt increase during that period. Based on
this guidance, the new HCCA and Florida State Superensemble
solutions, and the intensity consensus, the NHC intensity forecast
has been increased from the previous cycle and now shows Douglas
becoming a hurricane later today with a higher peak occurring in
about 2 days. Since oceanic heat content falls to zero along
Douglas's path by day 3, some gradual weakening is shown in the
latter stages of the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 12.4N 124.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 12.1N 126.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 12.1N 128.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 12.6N 131.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 13.6N 133.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 24/0000Z 14.9N 136.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 16.1N 139.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 18.0N 145.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/1200Z 18.5N 151.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2020-07-21 14:40


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 211438
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 AM HST Tue Jul 21 2020

...DOUGLAS CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN AND COULD BECOME A HURRICANE
LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 124.2W
ABOUT 1185 MI...1910 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
ABOUT 2110 MI...3390 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 124.2 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-southwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn
toward the west at a similar forward speed is expected later today,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest Wednesday night. The
west-northwestward motion is forecast to continue at least through
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next several days, and Douglas could become a hurricane later today.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

2020-07-21 14:40


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 211438
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020
1500 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 124.2W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 124.2W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 123.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.1N 126.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 12.1N 128.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.6N 131.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.6N 133.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.9N 136.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 16.1N 139.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 18.0N 145.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 18.5N 151.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 124.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2020-07-21 09:37


Original Message :

WTPN32 PHNC 211000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 08E (DOUGLAS) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 13.1N 122.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.1N 122.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 12.5N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 12.2N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 12.3N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 13.0N 132.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
231800Z --- 14.2N 134.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
240600Z --- 15.4N 137.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 17.0N 143.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 17.8N 148.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
211000Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 123.0W.
21JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 08E (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1931
NM EAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 211600Z, 212200Z, 220400Z AND 221000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 07E (SEVEN) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-21 08:38


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 210835
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020

Conventional and scatterometer satellite data indicate that Douglas
has continued to strengthen, although cloud tops have recently begun
to warm. A well-defined CDO, along with a curved convective band in
the western semicircle, has developed, and an earlier SSMI/S
overpass suggested that a primitive eye feature may be developing.
The initial intensity of 50 kt is based on a 0506Z ASCAT-A pass that
showed a small area of winds to 45 kt located less than 15 nmi
northeast of the center. This intensity is supported by a consensus
T3.0/45-kt estimate from TAFB and SAB, and an upward-trending
UW-CIMSS ADT intensity estimate of T3.2/49 kt. The symmetrical 34-kt
wind radii are based on the aforementioned ASCAT data.

The initial motion estimate remains west-southwestward or 255/12 kt.
A ridge located between TD-07E to the north and Douglas to the south
is expected to keep the latter cyclone moving west-southwestward
into Tuesday morning. After that time, the global and regional
models are forecasting the ridge to weaken and retreat eastward
faster than originally expected, resulting in Douglas turning
west-northwestward in 36-48 h. As a result of this more poleward
motion, the new NHC official track forecast was shifted north of
the previous advisory track, but not as far north as the some of
the consensus models and the ECMWF model, which is the northernmost
track in the NHC model guidance suite.

Although Douglas should remain in a favorable low-shear-high-SST
environment for the next 72 h, which would typically favor rapid
intensification, the small cyclone will be battling occasional
intrusions of dry mid-level air. Such an intrusion appears to be
occurring now based on the recent cloud-top warming that has been
observed. Thus, only gradual strengthening, with brief periods of
arrested development, is expected for the next 3 days. On days 4 and
5, the cyclone will be moving over 25-deg-C SSTs and into an even
drier airmass, a negative combination that is expected to induce a
slow weakening trend. The new official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous advisory, and lies between the consensus
models IVCN and NOAA-HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 13.0N 122.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 12.5N 124.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 12.2N 127.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 12.3N 129.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 13.0N 132.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 23/1800Z 14.2N 134.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 15.4N 137.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 17.0N 143.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 26/0600Z 17.8N 148.9W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-07-21 08:37


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 210835
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020

...DOUGLAS STRENGTHENING OVER THE OPEN PACIFIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 122.8W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1750 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 122.8 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-southwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion should continue into Tuesday morning. A westward
motion is forecast by Tuesday afternoon and continue into Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Douglas
is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-07-21 08:36


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 210835
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020
0900 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 122.8W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 122.8W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 122.2W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.5N 124.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 12.2N 127.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 12.3N 129.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 13.0N 132.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.2N 134.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.4N 137.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 17.0N 143.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 17.8N 148.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 122.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

2020-07-21 02:37


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 210235
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020

Satellite data indicate that the cyclone is strengthening. The
system now has a small but well organized central dense overcast
with curved bands on the west side of the circulation. All of the
satellite intensity estimates are of tropical storm strength, and
based on that data the initial intensity is raised to 35 kt, making
the system Tropical Storm Douglas.

The tropical storm is moving west-southwestward at 9 kt. A
mid-level ridge situated to the north of Douglas off the northern
Baja California coast should cause the storm to gradually turn
westward during the next couple of days and then west-northwestward
beyond that time. The models are in good agreement on this
scenario, and only small changes were made to the previous
prediction.

Douglas is expected to be in quite favorable conditions of low
vertical wind shear, high amounts of moisture, and warm SSTs during
the next few days. Given these conducive environmental conditions
and the storm's improved and compact structure, steady or possibly
even rapid strengthening is possible during that time period.
After a few days, however, a combination of higher shear, slightly
cooler waters, and drier air should end the strengthening trend and
induce weakening. The NHC intensity forecast lies near the higher
end of the guidance. This forecast shows a faster rate of
strengthening in the short term and more weakening at the end of
the period compared to the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 13.1N 121.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 12.5N 123.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 12.0N 125.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 11.9N 128.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 12.3N 130.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 23/1200Z 13.2N 133.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 14.2N 136.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 15.9N 141.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 16.6N 147.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-07-21 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 210234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Douglas Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 PM HST Mon Jul 20 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 121.6W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1645 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Douglas was
located near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 121.6 West. Douglas is
moving toward the west-southwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly
faster westward motion is expected during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional strengthening is forecast, and Douglas is expected to
become a hurricane in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2020-07-21 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 210234
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM DOUGLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020
0300 UTC TUE JUL 21 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 121.6W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 121.0W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.5N 123.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 12.0N 125.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 11.9N 128.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 12.3N 130.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 13.2N 133.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 14.2N 136.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 15.9N 141.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 16.6N 147.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 121.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-07-20 20:35


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 202033
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020

Satellite imagery indciates that Tropical Depression Eight-E is
getting better organized, with the formation of a small central
dense overcast and banding features outside of the central
convection. Satellite intensity estimates are 35 kt from TAFB and
30 kt from SAB, and recent scatterometer data indciate winds near
30 kt in the northwester quadrant. Based on these data, the
initial intensity remains a possibly conservative 30 kt.

The initial motion is 235/6, with the depression still being
steered by a portion of the subtropical ridge building between it
and Tropical Depression Seven-E. This motion should persist with
some increase in forward speed for 24-36 h, followed by a turn
toward the west as the steering flow becomes more easterly. This
should be followed by a turn toward the west-northwest between
48-60 h. The track guidance remains in good agreement on this
scenario, and the NHC forecast is again in the middle of the
guidance and close to the various consensus models.

The cyclone is over warm sea surface temperatures and in a light
shear environment, and these conditions should persist for the next
several days. The intensity guidance calls for steady
strengthening through about 72 h, and the NHC forecast follows this
trend near the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope.
The Rapid Intensification Indices of the SHIPS model suggest about
a 20-25 percent chance of RI during the first 72 h of the
forecast, and given the seemingly-favorable environment it would
not be a surprise if the cyclone strengthened more than currently
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 13.5N 120.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 12.8N 121.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 12.1N 123.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 11.9N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/1800Z 11.9N 129.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 23/0600Z 12.4N 132.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 23/1800Z 13.4N 134.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 24/1800Z 15.0N 140.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 25/1800Z 16.5N 145.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-07-20 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 202033
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
1100 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020

...DEPRESSION NEAR TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.5N 120.4W
ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 235 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E
was located near latitude 13.5 North, longitude 120.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A
turn toward the west-southwest is expected tonight, followed by a
turn toward the west on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Satellite imagery indicates that the depression is getting better
organized, and it is expected to become a tropical storm by tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

2020-07-20 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 202032
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020
2100 UTC MON JUL 20 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 120.4W AT 20/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST OR 235 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 120.4W AT 20/2100Z
AT 20/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 119.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 12.8N 121.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 12.1N 123.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 11.9N 126.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 11.9N 129.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 12.4N 132.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 13.4N 134.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N 140.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 16.5N 145.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 120.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

2020-07-20 14:55


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 201452
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Eight-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020

Satellite imagery and overnight scatterometer data indicate that the
low pressure area to the southeast of Tropical Depression Seven-E
has a well-defined circulation and sufficient organized convection
to be considered a tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being
initiated on Tropical Depression Eight-E. The initial intensity is
30 kt based on the scatterometer data and a subjective Dvorak
intensity estimate from TAFB.

The initial motion is 240/6, with the depression being steered by a
portion of the subtropical ridge building between it and Tropical
Depression Seven-E. This motion should persist with some
increase in forward speed for 24-36 h, followed by a turn toward
the west as the steering flow becomes more easterly. This should
be followed by a turn toward the west-northwest after 60h. The
track guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC
forecast is in the middle of the guidance and close to the various
consensus models.

The cyclone is over warm sea surface temperatures and in a light
shear environment, and these conditions should persist for the next
several days. The intensity guidance calls for steady
strengthening through about 72 h, and the NHC forecast follows this
trend near the upper edge of the intensity guidance envelope.
The Rapid Intensification Indices of the SHIPS model suggest about
a 20-25 percent chance of RI during the first 72 h of the
forecast, so it is possible that the cyclone will strengthen more
than currently forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/1500Z 13.7N 119.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 21/0000Z 13.1N 121.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 21/1200Z 12.4N 123.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 22/0000Z 11.8N 125.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 22/1200Z 11.7N 128.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 23/0000Z 11.9N 131.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 23/1200Z 12.7N 134.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 24/1200Z 14.5N 139.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 25/1200Z 16.5N 145.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-07-20 14:53


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 201452
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 AM HST Mon Jul 20 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.7N 119.8W
ABOUT 905 MI...1460 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 240 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight-E
was located near latitude 13.7 North, longitude 119.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-southwest near 7 mph (11 km/h),
and this motion is expected to continue through Tuesday. A turn
toward the west is expected by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today or
tonight.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

2020-07-20 14:53


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 201452
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082020
1500 UTC MON JUL 20 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 119.8W AT 20/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 119.8W AT 20/1500Z
AT 20/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 119.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 13.1N 121.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.4N 123.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 11.8N 125.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 11.7N 128.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 11.9N 131.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 12.7N 134.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 14.5N 139.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 16.5N 145.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 119.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>