Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SIX-E-20
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

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2020-07-15 04:04


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 150403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 15.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 118.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.07.2020 0 14.8N 118.9W 1010 18
1200UTC 15.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150403

>

2020-07-15 04:04


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 150403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 118.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.07.2020 14.8N 118.9W WEAK
12UTC 15.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 150403

>

2020-07-14 21:52


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 142151 CCA
TCMEP1

REMNANTS OF SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020
2100 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020

CORRECTED VALID TIME IN FORECAST SECTION

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.0W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.0W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 117.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 118.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

2020-07-14 20:39


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 142037
TCDEP1

Remnants Of Six-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020

A very recent ASCAT-B overpass indicated that the circulation of the
tropical depression is no longer closed with light and variable
winds evident on its south side. Therefore, the system no longer
meets the criteria of a tropical cyclone, and this is the last
advisory issued by NHC. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based
on the ASCAT data, which showed an area of 20-25 kt winds on the
system's north side. The remnants of the depression are currently
producing a very limited amount of shower activity, but the
associated convection could pulse up and down for another day until
the trough moves over cooler waters.

The trough is moving westward at about 15 kt and it should continue
in that direction for another couple of days until it completely
dissipates.

For additional information on this system please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 18.2N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

2020-07-14 20:37


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 142036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Remnants Of Six-E Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020
200 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...DEPRESSION OPENS INTO A TROUGH...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 118.0W
ABOUT 615 MI...990 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Six-E were located near
latitude 18.2 North, longitude 118.0 West. The remnants are moving
toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h) and they should continue
moving in that direction for another day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on this system
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

2020-07-14 20:37


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 142036
TCMEP1

REMNANTS OF SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020
2100 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.0W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 118.0W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 117.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 118.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

2020-07-14 16:02


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 141601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 14.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 115.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.07.2020 0 17.5N 115.9W 1009 18
0000UTC 15.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141601

>

2020-07-14 16:02


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 141601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 06E ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 115.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP062020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.07.2020 17.5N 115.9W WEAK
00UTC 15.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 141601

>

2020-07-14 14:39


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 141438
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020

The depression has been moving over a ridge of warmer sea surface
temperatures (about 28C) over the past few hours, and a
nontrivial amount of deep convection redeveloped soon after the
issuance of the previous advisory, albeit at least 60 n mi to the
southwest of the low-level center. However, with no appreciable
change in the cyclone's structure, the initial intensity remains 25
kt in accordance with the overnight scatterometer data. The
depression is forecast to reach waters colder than 26C in 12-24
hours, which should extinguish the remaining deep convection. The
updated NHC forecast now shows the depression degenerating into a
remnant low by 24 hours, with dissipation by 48 hours. Another
scenario is that the depression could dissipate at any time if it
opens up into a trough, which is shown by most of the global model
guidance.

The depression is moving west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt, which is
more poleward than has been shown by the dynamical track models.
Because of this, the simpler shallow trajectory models are given a
higher contribution on this cycle, with the new NHC track forecast
ending up a bit north of the previous forecast. The depression
and its remnants are expected to gradually accelerate toward the
west-northwest or west over the next day or two until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 18.1N 116.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 18.4N 122.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0000Z 18.2N 126.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

2020-07-14 14:38


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 141436
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020
800 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE BY
EARLY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.1N 116.6W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 116.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26
km/h). A faster motion toward the west-northwest or west is
expected during the next day or two.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or two,
and the depression is expected to become a remnant low or dissipate
by early Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


>

2020-07-14 14:37


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 141436
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020
1500 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 116.6W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 116.6W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 115.8W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.3N 119.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.4N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.2N 126.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 116.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG



>

2020-07-14 08:34


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 140832
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Satellite images show that the center of the tropical depression is
exposed well to the east-northeast of its decaying mid-level
circulation and any scant remaining convection. A pair of recent
scatterometer passes indicate that the current wind speed is not
more than 25 kt, so that value is used for this advisory. While
the system still has a day or so of marginally conducive
environmental conditions, the current displacement of the low- and
mid-level centers suggests that the depression is unlikely to
strengthen. Thus, little change in intensity is forecast through
today, and some weakening is likely on Wednesday and Thursday as the
cyclone encounters cooler water and higher shear. The timing of
remnant low status has been moved to Wednesday since the small,
poorly organized depression is expected to fall apart quickly in a
more hostile environment.

The cyclone continues moving westward and is forecast to move a
little faster in that general direction by late today due to the
effects of a strong ridge. The most significant change to the
forecast is that almost all of the guidance is north of the previous
model cycle, so the NHC track prediction is shifted in that
direction. None of the models show a closed low after 48 hours, so
dissipation is shown after that time, which makes sense given the
expected fragility of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 17.3N 115.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 17.4N 117.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 17.5N 120.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 17.2N 124.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z 17.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

2020-07-14 08:32


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 140830
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020
200 AM PDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...WEAK DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 115.1W
ABOUT 515 MI...825 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 115.1 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph, and
this general motion is expected for the next couple of days.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
decreased near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in
strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is
forecast to decay into a post-tropical cyclone on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

2020-07-14 08:31


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 140830
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020
0900 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 115.1W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 115.1W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 114.4W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.4N 117.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.5N 120.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.2N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 17.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 115.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

2020-07-14 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 140234
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020
900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Deep convection associated with the depression has decreased
substantially since the last advisory, particularly during the last
3 hours. At 00Z, microwave, visible, and IR imagery showed the
depression had a small but well-defined center with a small area of
deep convection west of its center. Most satellite-based intensity
estimates at that time were 35 kt, which would typically support
naming the system as a tropical storm. Since that time, however, it
appears that nearly all of the deep convection has dissipated and it
is likely that the intensity estimates would be lower if they were
valid now. The initial intensity is therefore conservatively held at
30 kt for this advisory, but it is certainly possible that the
system is producing tropical-storm-force winds.

The NHC forecast is largely unchanged. The cyclone is forecast to
move generally westward for the next day or two, steered by a
mid-level ridge to the north and low-level easterly flow. Some
slight strengthening is possible during the next day or so, but
significant strengthening is not expected. An increase of
southwesterly shear and cool SSTs should cause the cyclone to become
a remnant low and then dissipate within about 3 days. The track and
intensity guidance is all in good agreement and confidence in the
NHC forecast is fairly high.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 17.0N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 17.2N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 17.3N 119.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 16.9N 123.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 16.0N 126.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-07-14 02:35


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 140233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020
900 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION HEADING WEST FAR FROM LAND...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.0N 114.4W
ABOUT 500 MI...805 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 17.0 North, longitude 114.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 17 mph (28 km/h), and
this general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The system could become a tropical storm at any time during the
next day or two, but substantial strengthening is not expected.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

2020-07-14 02:34


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 140232
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020
0300 UTC TUE JUL 14 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 114.4W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 114.4W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 113.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 17.2N 116.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.3N 119.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.9N 123.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.0N 126.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 16.0N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.0N 114.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2020-07-13 20:36


Original Message :

WTPZ41 KNHC 132034
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020

The small disturbance and intermittent low pressure system that the
NHC has been tracking for the past few days has finally developed a
well-defined, closed surface circulation based on 1639Z ASCAT-B
surface wind vector ambiguity data, and the system is thus being
classified as Tropical Depression Six-E. Deep convection developed
overnight and this morning, which helped to spin up a low-level
center near and just inside of the northeastern portion of the
convective cloud canopy. In addition, the forward speed has also
decreased from 20 kt down to 14 kt, which has also likely helped to
close off the circulation on the south side. The ASCAT scatterometer
wind data data supported an intensity of at least 30 kt, and this is
consistent with 18Z Dvorak satellite classifications of T2.0/30 kt
from both TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion estimate is 270/14 kt based on conventional,
microwave, and scatterometer satellite fix data over the past 12
hours. The small cyclone is expected to be steered generally
westward at about the same forward speed for the next few days due
to a strong subtropical ridge situated to the north of the
depression. By 96 h, the system is forecast to degenerate into an
open wave. The NHC official forecast track lies close to the tightly
packed simple consensus models, which is a just a little south of
the NOAA corrected-consensus model, HCCA.

The current northerly vertical wind shear of about 15 kt affecting
the depression is forecast to decrease to below 10 kt in 12-18
hours, and remain that way until the 48-h period. This should allow
for some slight strengthening to occur during the next 36 hours or
so. By 48 hours and beyond, the cyclone will be moving over sub-26
deg C sea-surface temperatures and the shear is forecast to become
westerly to northwesterly at near 20 kt. The combination of these
two negative factors should induce significant weakening of the
small tropical cyclone, resulting in degeneration to a remnant low
by 72 h and dissipation by 96 hours. The official intensity forecast
closely follows the IVCN intensity consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 16.6N 112.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 16.7N 114.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 16.8N 117.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 16.8N 124.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 16/0600Z 16.6N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 16.5N 131.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-07-13 20:35


Original Message :

WTPZ31 KNHC 132033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Six-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062020
300 PM MDT Mon Jul 13 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA SUR...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.6N 112.6W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Six-E
was located near latitude 16.6 North, longitude 112.6 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and
the depression could become a tropical storm later tonight or on
Tuesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-07-13 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ21 KNHC 132033
TCMEP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062020
2100 UTC MON JUL 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.6W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 0 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 112.6W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 111.9W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 16.7N 114.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.8N 117.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.8N 124.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.6N 127.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.5N 131.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 112.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>