Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CRISTINA-20
in Mexico,

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2020-07-13 03:06


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 130400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 026
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 05E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 20.6N 125.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 125.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.0N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.5N 130.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.0N 133.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.6N 136.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.9N 139.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
130400Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 126.7W.
13JUL20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 865 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 7 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 131000Z, 131600Z, 132200Z AND 140400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-13 02:41


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 130239
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Cristina has lacked deep convection for more than 12 hours and is
now a swirl of low- to mid-level clouds. The system has therefore
become a remnant low and this is the last NHC advisory. The
estimated intensity is 30 kt, assuming some spin down has occurred
since the last advisory.

Cristina is moving westward near 10 kt, and low-level easterly flow
should steer the remnant low on this general heading for the next
few days. The cyclone is moving over sea surface temperatures of
about 23 deg C that will prevent the redevelopment of organized
convection. Cristina should continue to gradually spin down during
the next 2-3 days until it opens into a trough and dissipates.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 20.7N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 13/1200Z 21.0N 128.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 14/0000Z 21.5N 130.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/1200Z 22.0N 133.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 15/0000Z 22.6N 136.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 15/1200Z 22.9N 139.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

2020-07-13 02:41


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 130239
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Cristina Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
800 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...CRISTINA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...
...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 126.5W
ABOUT 1075 MI...1730 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Cristina was located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 126.5 West.
Cristina is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue for the next two or three days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated and the remnant low will likely
dissipate in a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low
please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and
on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-07-13 02:40


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 130238
TCMEP5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
0300 UTC MON JUL 13 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 126.5W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 126.5W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 125.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.0N 128.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.5N 130.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.0N 133.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.6N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.9N 139.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 126.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2020-07-12 21:28


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 122200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 025
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 124.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 124.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.0N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.4N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.0N 132.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.5N 135.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.0N 137.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
122200Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 125.7W.
12JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 837
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 130400Z, 131000Z, 131600Z AND 132200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-12 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 122032
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Cristina has been devoid of deep convection for several hours. The
cyclone's circulation now consists of a large swirl of low- to
mid-level clouds as it continues to move over waters of about 23 C
and into a progressively drier and more stable surrounding
atmosphere. Although intensity estimates continue to steadily
decease, the vortex is taking some additional time to spin down, as
indicated by a recent ASCAT-A overpass that showed maximum winds of
35 kt over a portion of the cyclone. Based on the ASCAT data,
Cristina's intensity is being maintained at 35 kt for this advisory.

Given the environmental conditions, it is unlikely that deep
convection will redevelop near Cristina's center, and the cyclone
is expected to become a remnant low soon. The associated winds will
continue to decrease over the next couple of days and the low is
forecast to open into a trough within a few days. Cristina is
moving westward at 11 kt and this general motion is expected to
continue until dissipation, as the system is steered by the low
level easterlies.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 20.7N 125.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 21.0N 127.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 13/1800Z 21.4N 129.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0600Z 22.0N 132.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1800Z 22.5N 135.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 15/0600Z 23.0N 137.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-07-12 20:33


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 122031
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
200 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...CRISTINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW SOON...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 125.5W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1625 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 125.5 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Additional weakening is forecast, and Christina is expected to
become a remnant low by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-07-12 20:33


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 122031
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
2100 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 125.5W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 125.5W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 124.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.0N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.4N 129.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.0N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.5N 135.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 137.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 125.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-07-12 16:05


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 121604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 12.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 102.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.07.2020 0 16.4N 102.9W 1011 26
0000UTC 13.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.7N 123.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.07.2020 0 20.7N 123.9W 1000 34
0000UTC 13.07.2020 12 21.0N 126.1W 1002 32
1200UTC 13.07.2020 24 21.4N 128.5W 1005 26
0000UTC 14.07.2020 36 22.2N 131.1W 1008 24
1200UTC 14.07.2020 48 22.6N 133.8W 1010 24
0000UTC 15.07.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 121603

>

2020-07-12 16:04


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 121603

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 12.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 102.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.07.2020 16.4N 102.9W WEAK
00UTC 13.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.7N 123.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.07.2020 20.7N 123.9W WEAK
00UTC 13.07.2020 21.0N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2020 21.4N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.07.2020 22.2N 131.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2020 22.6N 133.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 121603

>

2020-07-12 15:21


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 121600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 024
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 20.6N 123.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 123.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.9N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.3N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.9N 131.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.4N 133.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.8N 136.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.3N 139.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
121600Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 124.6W.
12JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 122200Z, 130400Z, 131000Z AND 131600Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-12 14:36


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 121434
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Cristina's convective pattern continues to rapidly erode with only
a small patch of moderate convection remaining in the northeastern
quadrant. Based on overnight scatterometer winds of 39 kt and the
significant decrease in convection since that time, it is assumed
that additional vortex spindown has occurred over 23 deg C water,
and the initial intensity is therefore decreased to 35 kt, which is
also supported by a blend of the latest CI-satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Cristina is moving westward or 280/11 kt. There are no significant
changes to the previous forecast track or rationale. The latest NHC
model guidance remains tightly packed about the previous forecast
track, with Cristina expected to continue in a general westerly
direction until dissipation occurs in 72-96 h over the extreme
eastern portion of the Central Pacific basin.

Cristina should continue to spin down as the cyclone moves over
near 22 deg C SSTs, becoming a remnant low in about 24 hours. It is
possible that Cristina could degenerate into an open wave sooner
than currently forecast due to the abundance of dry, stable air
that the cyclone will be ingesting. The new NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the previous advisory and closely follows the IVCN
intensity consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 20.7N 124.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 20.9N 126.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 21.3N 128.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 14/0000Z 21.9N 131.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 15/0000Z 22.8N 136.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/1200Z 23.3N 139.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-07-12 14:33


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 121432
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
800 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 124.4W
ABOUT 940 MI...1515 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 124.4 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Cristina
is expected to become a tropical depression by tonight, and
degenerate into a remnant low on Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-07-12 14:33


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 121432
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
1500 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 124.4W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 124.4W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 123.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.9N 126.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.3N 128.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 21.9N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.8N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 23.3N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 124.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

2020-07-12 09:07


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 121000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 023
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 122.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 122.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 20.9N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.2N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.6N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.1N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.6N 135.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.0N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
121000Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 123.5W.
12JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 785
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121600Z, 122200Z, 130400Z AND 131000Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-12 08:36


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 120834
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Conventional satellite and scatterometer data indicate that
Cristina has weakened during the past several hours. Deep
convection has become fragmented near the center of the cyclone,
with only a small amount in the eastern semicircle. A blend of the
satellite estimates from TAFB/SAB gives an initial wind speed of 40
kt for this advisory, and this value is also quite close to a
recent scatterometer pass as well.

Cristina should gradually lose strength during the next few days
due to a combination of very cool waters and increasing shear,
along with nearby dry air. These factors will likely cause the
storm to transition into a non-convective remnant low on Monday.
The intensity forecast is lowered from the previous one, mostly due
to the decreased initial intensity, and the remnant low timing is
earlier as well.

The storm is moving a little north of due west, or 275/11. A
well-defined subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific should keep
this general motion going for the next several days. The model
guidance has changed little since the last cycle, so no significant
changes were made to the track forecast. None of the global models
hold onto the low-level circulation for long beyond 72 hours, so
dissipation is now shown by day 4.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0900Z 20.7N 123.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 12/1800Z 20.9N 125.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 13/0600Z 21.2N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 13/1800Z 21.6N 130.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 14/0600Z 22.1N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 14/1800Z 22.6N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2020-07-12 08:32


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 120831
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
200 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2020

...CRISTINA WEAKENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 123.3W
ABOUT 870 MI...1405 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 123.3 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Slow weakening is forecast during the next 48
hours, and Cristina will likely degenerate into a remnant low on
Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

2020-07-12 08:32


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 120830
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
0900 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 123.3W AT 12/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 123.3W AT 12/0900Z
AT 12/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 122.7W

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 20.9N 125.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.2N 127.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.6N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.1N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.6N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 123.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2020-07-12 04:01


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 120400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 12.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 98.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2020 0 14.2N 98.5W 1010 22
1200UTC 12.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 121.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.07.2020 0 20.5N 121.6W 996 41
1200UTC 12.07.2020 12 20.7N 124.0W 999 35
0000UTC 13.07.2020 24 20.9N 126.5W 1001 33
1200UTC 13.07.2020 36 21.3N 129.0W 1004 29
0000UTC 14.07.2020 48 21.8N 131.7W 1007 26
1200UTC 14.07.2020 60 22.2N 134.6W 1009 26
0000UTC 15.07.2020 72 22.5N 137.4W 1011 23
1200UTC 15.07.2020 84 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120400

>

2020-07-12 04:01


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 120400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 12.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 98.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP982020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.07.2020 14.2N 98.5W WEAK
12UTC 12.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.5N 121.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.07.2020 20.5N 121.6W MODERATE
12UTC 12.07.2020 20.7N 124.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2020 20.9N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2020 21.3N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.07.2020 21.8N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2020 22.2N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.07.2020 22.5N 137.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 120400

>

2020-07-12 03:08


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 120400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
120000Z --- NEAR 20.5N 121.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 121.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.8N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.2N 126.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.6N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.0N 131.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.4N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.9N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 23.5N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
120400Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 122.4W.
12JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 771
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 121000Z, 121600Z, 122200Z AND 130400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-12 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 120234
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
500 PM HST Sat Jul 11 2020

Cristina continues to maintain a broken ring of convection around
its center, and there has been little change in either the
organization or the various satellite intensity estimates since the
last advisory. Based on that, the initial intensity is held at 50
kt.

The initial motion is westward or 270/12. The track forecast
guidance remains in excellent agreement that Cristina should
continue generally westward through the forecast period on the south
side of the subtropical ridge. Only minor adjustments have been
made to the previous forecast track, and the new forecast is in the
middle of the tightly clustered guidance.

The cyclone is over sea surface temperatures near 23C, and the
temperatures cool along the forecast track for the next 60 h or so.
This should cause Cristina to weaken to a depression in about 48 h
and degenerate to a remnant low shortly thereafter. The latest
global models forecast the remnant low to weaken to a trough between
96-120 h, and the NHC forecast thus shows dissipation by 120 h. The
new intensity forecast is otherwise unchanged from the previous
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/0300Z 20.6N 122.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/1200Z 20.8N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 14/0000Z 22.0N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 15/0000Z 22.9N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 16/0000Z 23.5N 141.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

2020-07-12 02:34


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 120232
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
500 PM HST Sat Jul 11 2020

...CRISTINA MOVING WESTWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH DURING
THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 122.2W
ABOUT 805 MI...1295 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 122.2 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). This general motion
is expected to continue for the remainder of the weekend and into
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Cristina should steadily weaken over the next few days and become
a remnant low by early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

2020-07-12 02:33


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 120232
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
0300 UTC SUN JUL 12 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 122.2W AT 12/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 122.2W AT 12/0300Z
AT 12/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 121.6W

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.8N 124.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.0N 131.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 22.4N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 22.9N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 23.5N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 122.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

2020-07-11 22:07


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 112200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 021
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 20.5N 120.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 120.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.8N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.1N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.5N 127.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.0N 130.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.5N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.9N 135.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.5N 140.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 23.8N 145.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
112200Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 121.2W.
11JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 753
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 120400Z, 121000Z, 121600Z AND 122200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-11 20:42


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 112040
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020

Cristina's deep convection continues to decrease and is now
primarily limited to a narrow ring of thunderstorms that wraps
about 75 percent around the low-level circulation center. Although
the convective pattern resembles an embedded eye feature, the
convection is thin and becoming increasingly shallow due to cooler
waters beneath the cyclone. The initial intensity has been lowered
to 50 kt, which is above most of the satellite intensity estimates,
based on the eye-like feature and a UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate of 51
kt at 1335Z.

The initial motion remains westward or 280/12 kt. The global and
regional models are tightly packed and in excellent agreement on
Cristina maintaining this general direction and speed for the next
three days. Afterwards, the shallow cyclone is expected to turn due
west or possibly even south of west as the remnant low comes under
the influence the easterly trade wind flow. The new NHC track
forecast is a little south of the previous advisory track, mainly
due to the more southward initial position.

Cristina's forecast track will continue to take the cyclone over
progressively cooler waters for the 120-h forecast period, thus,
gradual weakening is expected. Cristina should become a depression
in about two days, followed by degeneration into a remnant low
shortly thereafter. The remnant low is expected to open up into a
trough shortly after 120 h over the Central Pacific basin, but that
could occur sooner than currently forecast. The NHC intensity
forecast is essentially just an update of the previous forecast, and
closely follows the IVCN consensus intensity guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/2100Z 20.6N 121.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/0600Z 20.8N 122.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 12/1800Z 21.1N 125.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 13/0600Z 21.5N 127.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 13/1800Z 22.0N 130.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 14/0600Z 22.5N 132.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1800Z 22.9N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/1800Z 23.8N 145.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-07-11 20:41


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 112040
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
1100 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020

...CRISTINA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 121.0W
ABOUT 730 MI...1175 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 121.0 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue over the weekend and into early next
week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Cristina will continue to steadily weaken over the next few days
and become a remnant low by early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-07-11 20:41


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 112039
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
2100 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 121.0W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 75SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 121.0W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 120.4W

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.8N 122.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.1N 125.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.5N 127.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 130.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.5N 132.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 22.9N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 23.8N 145.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 121.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

2020-07-11 15:16


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 111600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
111200Z --- NEAR 20.5N 119.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 119.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.9N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.2N 123.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.6N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.1N 128.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.6N 131.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 23.1N 133.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.8N 139.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 24.0N 144.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
111600Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 119.9W.
11JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 740
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 112200Z, 120400Z, 121000Z AND 121600Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-11 14:36


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 111435
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
500 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020

Over the past several hours, the coverage of deep convection around
the center of Cristina has gradually decreased as the cyclone
continues to move over relatively cool 24 C waters. The latest
satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the UW-CIMSS
SATCON all support lowering the initial intensity to 55 kt.

Cristina is forecast to move over even cooler waters and into a
progressively drier and more stable air mass over the next couple of
days. These conditions should cause the cyclone to steadily weaken.
By 60 h, Cristina is forecast to have lost its deep convection near
its center and become a remnant low. There is a chance that the
convection could dissipate sooner than indicated, and Cristina could
become a post-tropical cyclone while wind speeds are still greater
than 30 kt. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of the
previous one.

Cristina is moving just north of due west at 12 kt. This motion is
expected to continue for the next several days, as the cyclone is
steered by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S.
early on, then by the low level easterlies once the system becomes a
remnant low. The NHC forecast lies in the middle of tightly
clustered track guidance, and is little changed from the previous
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/1500Z 20.6N 119.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 21.2N 123.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 21.6N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 22.1N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/1200Z 23.1N 133.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/1200Z 23.8N 139.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/1200Z 24.0N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-07-11 14:34


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 111432
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
500 AM HST Sat Jul 11 2020

...CRISTINA BEGINNING TO WEAKEN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 119.7W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 20.6 North, longitude 119.7 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Cristina is forecast to gradually weaken over the
next few days and become a remnant low early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-07-11 14:33


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 111432
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
1500 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.7W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 75SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.7W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 119.1W

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.9N 121.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.2N 123.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.6N 126.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.1N 128.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 23.1N 133.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 23.8N 139.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 24.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 119.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-07-11 09:00


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 111000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110600Z --- NEAR 20.3N 117.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 117.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.7N 120.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.1N 122.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.5N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.9N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.4N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.9N 132.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.7N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 24.0N 142.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
111000Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 118.5W.
11JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 744
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 23
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111600Z, 112200Z, 120400Z AND 121000Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-11 08:34


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 110833
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020

Despite being over relatively cool 24 C waters, Cristina is
maintaining its strength for now. Deep convection wraps most of the
way around the center and is strongest on the south side of the
circulation. There remains a large spread in the satellite
intensity estimates that currently range from 45 kt to 65 kt. In
addition, a recent ASCAT-B pass showed maximum winds of 45-50 kt
north of the center. Based on a compromise of all of this data, the
initial intensity is held at 60 kt.

Cristina is moving toward even cooler waters and into a
progressively drier and more stable air mass. These conditions
should cause weakening soon, and the storm is forecast to lose all
of its deep convection and become a post-tropical cyclone in about
60 hours when it will be over SSTs of around 22 C. The NHC
intensity forecast generally follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus
models and calls for steady weakening during the next several days.

Cristina is still moving west-northwestward, and it should continue
moving in that direction for the next couple of days as a mid-level
ridge remains parked over the southwestern United States. Beyond
that time, a westward motion is expected as the weak and shallow
post-tropical cyclone should be steered by the low-level trade
winds. The models remain in good agreement on this scenario, and
the NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 20.4N 118.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1800Z 20.7N 120.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 12/0600Z 21.1N 122.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/0600Z 21.9N 127.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 13/1800Z 22.4N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 14/0600Z 22.9N 132.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0600Z 23.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0600Z 24.0N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

2020-07-11 08:34


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 110832
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
1100 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020

...CRISTINA EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING SOON...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 118.3W
ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 118.3 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward
to west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected
into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin soon and Cristina is
expected to become a post-tropical cyclone early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

2020-07-11 08:33


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 110832
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
0900 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 118.3W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 118.3W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 117.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.7N 120.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.1N 122.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 125.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.9N 127.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 22.4N 130.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 22.9N 132.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.7N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0600Z 24.0N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.4N 118.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

2020-07-11 04:03


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 110401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.07.2020

TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 40.3N 74.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.07.2020 40.3N 74.6W WEAK
12UTC 11.07.2020 43.4N 73.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2020 47.9N 72.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ANALYSED POSITION : 20.0N 116.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 11.07.2020 20.0N 116.2W MODERATE
12UTC 11.07.2020 20.3N 119.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2020 20.5N 121.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2020 20.9N 123.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2020 21.4N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2020 22.2N 128.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.07.2020 22.7N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2020 23.3N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.07.2020 23.6N 137.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 110401

>

2020-07-11 03:33


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 110400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
110000Z --- NEAR 20.0N 116.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 279 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 116.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.5N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.0N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.3N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.7N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 22.0N 128.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.6N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 23.5N 136.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 24.0N 141.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
110400Z POSITION NEAR 20.2N 117.0W.
11JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 764
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 111000Z, 111600Z, 112200Z AND 120400Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-11 03:17


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 110316
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020

Cristina's appearance suggests that the system has gotten better
organized over relatively cold waters than it ever did over warmer
waters to the south. The cyclone has a banding eye-like feature, and
cold cloud tops associated with deep convection have recently come
close to wrapping all the way around the cyclone's center. Although
subjective Dvorak intensity estimates at 00Z could justify calling
Cristina a hurricane, the most recent UW-CIMSS SATCON is 55 kt, and
ASCAT data valid around 18Z had max winds of only 45 kt. The initial
intensity is therefore held at 60 kt as a compromise of the various
estimates.

Cristina is forecast to be over 24 deg C waters in about 12 h and it
would be surprising if it strengthened overnight. That said, given
its current satellite appearance and otherwise favorable surrounding
environment, I can not rule out the possibility that Cristina could
briefly become a hurricane during the next few hours. In general,
the NHC intensity forecast has not been substantially changed, and
Cristina is forecast to gradually weaken for the next few days.
Various dynamical models indicate that the tropical storm will
maintain some deep convection for another couple days, and then
become a post-tropical remnant low early next week.

The tropical storm is forecast to continue moving steadily westward
to west-northwestward for the next two to three days, steered by a
mid-level ridge extending across most of the eastern North Pacific.
After that time, the shallow remnant low should continue generally
westward, steered by low-level easterly flow. The models are in
fairly good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is on top of the
multi-model consensus near the middle of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0300Z 20.1N 116.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 12/0000Z 21.0N 121.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/1200Z 21.3N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 13/0000Z 21.7N 126.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 13/1200Z 22.0N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0000Z 23.5N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 16/0000Z 24.0N 141.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

2020-07-11 03:17


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 110316
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
500 PM HST Fri Jul 10 2020

...CRISTINA HOLDING ON OVER COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.1N 116.8W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 279 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 116.8 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is expected
into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin over the weekend and
Cristina is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low early
next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


>

2020-07-11 03:17


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 110315
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
0300 UTC SAT JUL 11 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.8W AT 11/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 279 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.1N 116.8W AT 11/0300Z
AT 11/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 116.1W

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.5N 118.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 121.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.3N 124.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.7N 126.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 128.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 22.6N 131.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 23.5N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 24.0N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.1N 116.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2020-07-10 22:18


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 102200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101800Z --- NEAR 19.4N 114.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 114.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.1N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.5N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.9N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.2N 125.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.6N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.9N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 23.0N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 23.5N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
102200Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 115.6W.
10JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 808
NM SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS
22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110400Z, 111000Z, 111600Z AND 112200Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-10 20:58


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 102056 CCA
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 17...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020

Corrected issuance time zone to HST.

...CRISTINA HEADING INTO COOLER WATER...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 115.5W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 115.5 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
west is forecast to occur over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Cristina is expected to begin weakening tonight, and is
forecast to become a remnant low in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Kodama


>

2020-07-10 20:46


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 102044
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
1100 AM HST Fri Jul 10 2020

Satellite images continue to show a degradation of Cristina's
appearance, with cloud tops warming and deep convection mainly
limited to the southeastern semicircle. The low level center is
clearly visible, but its motion is erratic, taking a looping
trajectory through the day. The weakening is likely due to the
cyclone's passage over cooler waters. Objective and subjective
intensity estimates range from 43 kt to 65 kt. For this forecast
package, the initial intensity will be kept at 60 kt based on a
blend of the available estimates.

The initial motion of Cristina is 285/15 kt. The synoptic scale
guidance indicates that a mid-level ridge over the southwestern
U.S. will strengthen over the next couple of days. As the ridge
strengthens, Cristina is expected to gradually turn west. The
objective aids remain relatively tightly packed. The forecast
has been adjusted slightly north of the previous forecast and is
close to the HCCA guidance.

It appears Cristina's opportunity to become a hurricane has
passed as the cyclone moves over cooler waters. The objective aids
indicate weakening over the next several days due to the cooler sea
surface temperatures and a drier, more stable air mass along the
forecast track. Cristina is forecast to become a remnant low by 72
hours, though some of the models indicate this process may take a
little longer.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/2100Z 19.8N 115.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0600Z 20.1N 117.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 11/1800Z 20.5N 120.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 12/0600Z 20.9N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 12/1800Z 21.2N 125.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 13/0600Z 21.6N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 13/1800Z 21.9N 130.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kodama

>

2020-07-10 20:44


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 102042
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
3 PM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...CRISTINA HEADING INTO COOLER WATER...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 115.5W
ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 19.8 North, longitude 115.5 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
west is forecast to occur over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Cristina is expected to begin weakening tonight, and is
forecast to become a remnant low in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Kodama

>

2020-07-10 20:43


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 102041 RRA
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.1N 117.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 55SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 120.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.9N 122.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.2N 125.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.6N 127.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.9N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 115.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

>

2020-07-10 20:42


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 102041
TCMEP5

WTPZ25 KNHC DDHHMM
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
2100 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z
AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.1N 117.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 55SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 120.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 20.9N 122.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.2N 125.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 21.6N 127.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 10SE 10SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 21.9N 130.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 23.0N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 115.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KODAMA

>

2020-07-10 16:05


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 101604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 10.07.2020

TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 38.0N 74.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.07.2020 0 38.0N 74.8W 1004 34
0000UTC 11.07.2020 12 40.4N 74.7W 999 34
1200UTC 11.07.2020 24 43.4N 73.4W 998 21
0000UTC 12.07.2020 36 48.0N 70.8W 996 28
1200UTC 12.07.2020 48 51.3N 68.1W 995 24
0000UTC 13.07.2020 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 113.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.07.2020 0 19.2N 113.6W 991 46
0000UTC 11.07.2020 12 20.2N 116.4W 991 46
1200UTC 11.07.2020 24 20.6N 119.3W 992 43
0000UTC 12.07.2020 36 21.1N 122.0W 995 41
1200UTC 12.07.2020 48 21.4N 124.5W 999 36
0000UTC 13.07.2020 60 21.7N 127.0W 1001 35
1200UTC 13.07.2020 72 22.0N 129.7W 1005 30
0000UTC 14.07.2020 84 22.3N 132.2W 1008 26
1200UTC 14.07.2020 96 22.8N 134.8W 1010 25
0000UTC 15.07.2020 108 23.2N 137.3W 1012 23
1200UTC 15.07.2020 120 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101604

>

2020-07-10 16:05


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 101604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.07.2020

TROPICAL STORM FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 38.0N 74.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.07.2020 38.0N 74.8W WEAK
00UTC 11.07.2020 40.4N 74.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.07.2020 43.4N 73.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2020 48.0N 70.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2020 51.3N 68.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ANALYSED POSITION : 19.2N 113.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.07.2020 19.2N 113.6W MODERATE
00UTC 11.07.2020 20.2N 116.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2020 20.6N 119.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2020 21.1N 122.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2020 21.4N 124.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2020 21.7N 127.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2020 22.0N 129.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.07.2020 22.3N 132.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2020 22.8N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.07.2020 23.2N 137.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101604

>

2020-07-10 14:54


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 101600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
101200Z --- NEAR 18.9N 113.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 113.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.8N 116.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.3N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 20.6N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 20.9N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.2N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.6N 128.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 22.5N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.8N 139.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
101600Z POSITION NEAR 19.2N 114.5W.
10JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 849
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z,
111000Z AND 111600Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-10 14:37


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 101436
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Cristina's appearance on satellite has not improved over the past
several hours. In fact, cloud tops are beginning to warm and some of
the convection has begun to erode over the northern portion of the
circulation. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates from TAFB
and SAB support keeping the initial intensity at 60 kt. However,
this may be a little generous due to the lower values suggested by
the objective satellite intensity estimates as well as an earlier
ASCAT pass showing maximum winds of only 45 kt.

It is becoming less likely that Cristina will become a hurricane as
the storm is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm later today
and move into a drier and more stable air mass. Once the cyclone
enters this unfavorable environment a weakening trend should begin.
By 72 h, Cristina is expected to become a remnant low. The NHC
intensity forecast was adjusted slightly downward in the near term,
and no longer shows Cristina reaching hurricane strength. The
remainder of the intensity forecast is similar to the previous
official forecast.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 12 kt. A mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should continue to steer
Cristina to the west-northwest through tonight. As Cristina weakens
and becomes a shallow system, a gradual turn toward the west is
expected in the low-level flow. The track models remain tightly
clustered, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC
forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 19.1N 114.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 11/1200Z 20.3N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 12/0000Z 20.6N 121.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/1200Z 20.9N 124.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 14/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/1200Z 22.8N 139.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-07-10 14:37


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 101435
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...CRISTINA STILL A TROPICAL STORM...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 114.2W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 114.2 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
west is forecast to occur over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Cristina is expected to begin weakening tonight, and is
forecast to become a remnant low in a few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-07-10 14:37


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 101435
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
1500 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 114.2W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 114.2W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.3N 118.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 20.6N 121.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 20.9N 124.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 126.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 21.6N 128.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 22.5N 134.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 22.8N 139.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 114.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-07-10 09:04


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 101000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100600Z --- NEAR 18.6N 112.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.6N 112.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.7N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.4N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.9N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.3N 122.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.6N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 22.0N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 22.5N 133.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 23.0N 138.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
101000Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 113.2W.
10JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 883
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 100600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND
111000Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-10 08:44


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 100843
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Cristina has become better organized during the past several hours.
A curved band wraps almost completely around the center, and a
ragged eye has occasionally been apparent in satellite
images. The cyclone is beginning to look like a hurricane, but
there is still a large spread in the latest satellite intensity
estimates, ranging from 45 to 77 kt. In addition, a recent ASCAT
pass showed maximum winds of only 45 kt. Based on a compromise of
all of this data, the initial intensity remains 60 kt for this
advisory.

Cristina could still become a hurricane today while it remains over
waters warmer than 26 C and in low vertical wind shear conditions.
However, by tonight the storm will likely be moving over
progressively cooler waters and into a drier and more stable air
mass. The combination of these negative factors for the storm
should promote a steady weakening trend beginning tonight, and
ultimately Cristina is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
in about 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update
of the previous one, and in line with the consensus models IVCN and
HCCA.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. There has
been no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge
centered over the southwestern U.S. should continue to steer
Cristina to the west-northwest during the next couple of days.
Beyond that time, when Cristina becomes a weak and shallow system, a
turn to the west is expected in the low-level flow. The track
models remain tightly clustered, and only minor changes were made
to the previous NHC forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 18.8N 113.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 19.7N 114.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 20.4N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 11/1800Z 20.9N 120.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 12/0600Z 21.3N 122.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 12/1800Z 21.6N 125.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 13/0600Z 22.0N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 14/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

2020-07-10 08:43


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 100842
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
300 AM MDT Fri Jul 10 2020

...CRISTINA ALMOST A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.8N 113.0W
ABOUT 345 MI...560 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 113.0 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this
general motion with a gradual bend to the west is expected during
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Cristina could become a hurricane later today, however, a
weakening trend should begin by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

2020-07-10 08:43


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 100842
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
0900 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.0W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 113.0W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 112.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.7N 114.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.4N 117.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.9N 120.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.3N 122.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.6N 125.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.0N 127.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 22.5N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 23.0N 138.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 113.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

2020-07-10 03:00


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 100400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
100000Z --- NEAR 18.1N 111.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.1N 111.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.1N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.1N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.8N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.3N 121.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.6N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.8N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 22.2N 132.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 22.5N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
100400Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 112.1W.
10JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 928
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-10 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 100234
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020

Cristina's satellite presentation has degraded somewhat during the
past several hours, with deep convection on the wane and some
evidence of dry air near the center. Still, microwave data does
show a large banding pattern with a mid-level core present,
suggesting there might be more than meets the eye than just
conventional satellite imagery. The current intensity of the storm
is difficult to ascertain, as estimates from generally credible
techniques range from 45 kt to 77 kt on this package. It is
probably best to keep the initial wind speed 60 kt for now, and we
will see if the intensity becomes more clear overnight.

The storm has about a day over marginally warm waters in light
shear conditions before SSTs begin to cool, and eventually
more significant dry air is entrained into the inner core. Thus
some strengthening is anticipated on Friday, and Cristina should
start a gradual weakening over the weekend through early next week.
The cyclone should have a challenging time producing convection over
sub-23C waters, which happens in about 72 hours, so that is the
time chosen for post-tropical transition. This is earlier than the
previous forecast and best matches a GFS/ECMWF blend. No
significant changes were made to the intensity forecast with
guidance in good agreement at this time.

Christina continues moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt.
A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected
to strengthen over the next day or so, which should force
the storm in a similar direction but with a slight increase in
forward speed. Over the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual
turn to the west is expected. The forecast track is a little slower
than the previous one at long range, otherwise the track is
basically an update of the earlier track prediction.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 18.4N 111.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 19.1N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/1200Z 20.8N 118.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 12/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 12/1200Z 21.6N 124.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 13/0000Z 21.8N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 14/0000Z 22.2N 132.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 15/0000Z 22.5N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

2020-07-10 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 100234
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020

...CRISTINA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 111.9W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 111.9 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual bend to the west is expected during
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Cristina could become a hurricane on Friday before weakening
begins over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake


>

2020-07-10 02:35


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 100233
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
0300 UTC FRI JUL 10 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.9W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 111.9W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 111.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.1N 113.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.8N 118.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.3N 121.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.6N 124.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.8N 127.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 22.2N 132.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 22.5N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 111.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

2020-07-09 22:07


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 092200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091800Z --- NEAR 17.6N 110.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.6N 110.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.7N 112.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.7N 115.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.5N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.0N 120.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.4N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.5N 126.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 21.9N 131.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 22.3N 137.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
092200Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 111.3W.
09JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 972
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100400Z, 101000Z, 101600Z AND 102200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-09 20:38


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 092036
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
300 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020

Satellite images and microwave data indicate that the structure of
Cristina has improved since this morning. Banding features have
become more prevalent, while deep convection has persisted over the
center throughout the day. In addition, the average of the satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB has increased since this
morning's advisory. Therefore, the initial intensity has been
raised to 60 kt.

The storm will remain in a favorable environment for intensification
through Friday morning, and it is expected to become a hurricane by
that time. By late Friday, the cyclone will cross the 26 C isotherm
and move into a progressively more stable and dry atmospheric
environment. This should result in steady weakening. There is some
spread in the guidance as to how quickly Cristina will lose its
convection later on in the forecast period. The GFS suggests this
will not occur until 120 h, while the Canadian and ECMWF indicate
this will happen in 96 h and 72 h, respectively. Based on a blend of
these, Cristina is now expected to become a remnant low by 96 h. The
NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and is
close to the consensus aids.

Cristina's initial motion is west-northwest at 10 kt. The mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen
a little over the next day or so, which should keep Cristina
on the same path but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over
the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is
expected. The guidance shifted slightly northward beyond day 3,
so the NHC track forecasted was nudged a little north for that
time frame. Otherwise, the latest NHC track forecast is little
changed compared to the previous one.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 17.9N 111.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 18.7N 112.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 19.7N 115.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 20.5N 117.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 21.0N 120.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 21.4N 123.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 13/1800Z 21.9N 131.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1800Z 22.3N 137.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-07-09 20:38


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 092036
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
300 PM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020

...CRISTINA ALMOST A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 111.1W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 111.1 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A gradual
turn to the west is forecast to occur over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through tonight, and
Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. A weakening
trend should then begin by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-07-09 20:38


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 092036
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
2100 UTC THU JUL 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.1W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 135SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 111.1W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 110.6W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.7N 112.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.7N 115.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.5N 117.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.0N 120.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.4N 123.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 21.9N 131.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 22.3N 137.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 111.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-07-09 16:05


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 091604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 120.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.07.2020 0 15.9N 120.8W 1008 21
0000UTC 10.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 34.1N 76.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.07.2020 0 34.1N 76.0W 1009 28
0000UTC 10.07.2020 12 35.4N 75.3W 1008 27
1200UTC 10.07.2020 24 36.6N 75.2W 1006 32
0000UTC 11.07.2020 36 38.5N 74.3W 1004 31
1200UTC 11.07.2020 48 41.0N 72.4W 1001 31
0000UTC 12.07.2020 60 45.8N 72.9W 999 25
1200UTC 12.07.2020 72 48.1N 71.6W 993 28
0000UTC 13.07.2020 84 49.5N 69.8W 990 24
1200UTC 13.07.2020 96 50.1N 67.7W 996 22
0000UTC 14.07.2020 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 109.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.07.2020 0 17.2N 109.9W 994 41
0000UTC 10.07.2020 12 18.0N 112.0W 990 45
1200UTC 10.07.2020 24 18.9N 114.0W 984 51
0000UTC 11.07.2020 36 19.9N 116.7W 984 48
1200UTC 11.07.2020 48 20.5N 119.6W 990 45
0000UTC 12.07.2020 60 21.1N 122.6W 994 42
1200UTC 12.07.2020 72 21.4N 125.3W 998 38
0000UTC 13.07.2020 84 21.7N 127.9W 1000 36
1200UTC 13.07.2020 96 22.1N 130.5W 1003 31
0000UTC 14.07.2020 108 23.0N 133.1W 1007 29
1200UTC 14.07.2020 120 23.7N 136.1W 1009 27
0000UTC 15.07.2020 132 24.2N 139.0W 1012 26
1200UTC 15.07.2020 144 24.4N 142.3W 1013 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091604

>

2020-07-09 16:05


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 091604

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 120.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.07.2020 15.9N 120.8W WEAK
00UTC 10.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 34.1N 76.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.07.2020 34.1N 76.0W WEAK
00UTC 10.07.2020 35.4N 75.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.07.2020 36.6N 75.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2020 38.5N 74.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2020 41.0N 72.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2020 45.8N 72.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2020 48.1N 71.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.07.2020 49.5N 69.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2020 50.1N 67.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.2N 109.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.07.2020 17.2N 109.9W MODERATE
00UTC 10.07.2020 18.0N 112.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.07.2020 18.9N 114.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.07.2020 19.9N 116.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2020 20.5N 119.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.07.2020 21.1N 122.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.07.2020 21.4N 125.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2020 21.7N 127.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2020 22.1N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.07.2020 23.0N 133.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2020 23.7N 136.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.07.2020 24.2N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.07.2020 24.4N 142.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091604

>

2020-07-09 15:00


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 091600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 17.1N 109.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.1N 109.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.2N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.2N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.1N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.7N 119.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.1N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.2N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.4N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.5N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
091600Z POSITION NEAR 17.5N 110.3W.
09JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1018 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 092200Z, 100400Z, 101000Z AND 101600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-09 14:44


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 091442
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020

Cristina's convective structure has evolved into a large curved band
over the past several hours. The improving appearance has not yet
materialized in an increase in intensity, but may be indicative
that some strengthening may soon occur. The initial wind speed
estimate of 55 kt, is based on the most recent TAFB Dvorak satellite
intensity estimate.

The storm will remain in a favorable environment for intensification
for another 24 h or so. And, with the convective structure beginning
to show some improvement, it is reasonable to assume that some
strengthening is likely through tonight. After 24 h, the cyclone
will cross the 26 C isotherm and move into a progressively more
stable and dry atmospheric environment. This should result in steady
weakening. By 120 h, Cristina is expected to have lost all of its
deep convection and become a remnant low. The official forecast is
essentially an update of the previous one, indicating that Cristina
should become a hurricane by tomorrow morning and then begin to
weaken shortly thereafter.

Cristina's initial motion is west-northwest at 9 kt. A mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen
a little over the next day or so, which should keep Cristina
on the same path but with a slight increase in forward speed. Over
the weekend, as the cyclone weakens, a gradual turn to the west is
expected. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the
previous one, and is in the middle of tightly clustered guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 17.4N 110.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 18.2N 111.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 19.2N 113.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1200Z 20.7N 119.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 12/0000Z 21.1N 122.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/1200Z 21.2N 125.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/1200Z 21.4N 131.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-07-09 14:43


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 091442
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020

...CRISTINA TO PASS JUST SOUTH OF SOCORRO ISLAND TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 110.2W
ABOUT 380 MI...610 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 110.2 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue for the next day or so. A gradual
turn to the west should occur over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is expected through tonight, and
Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane by Friday. A weakening
trend should then begin by Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-07-09 14:43


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 091441
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
1500 UTC THU JUL 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.2W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 30SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 110.2W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 109.7W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.2N 111.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.2N 113.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.1N 116.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.7N 119.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.1N 122.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 21.2N 125.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.4N 131.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 21.5N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 110.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO



>

2020-07-09 09:16


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 16.5N 109.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 109.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.6N 110.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.6N 112.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.6N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.3N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.9N 121.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.1N 124.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.2N 129.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 21.4N 135.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
091000Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 109.6W.
09JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1067 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091600Z, 092200Z, 100400Z AND 101000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-09 08:32


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 090831
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020

Although deep convection has been increasing tonight in association
with Cristina, the overall cloud pattern and structure of the storm
has changed little and it continues to lack banding features. The
satellite intensity estimates range from 45 to 60 kt, and a recent
ASCAT pass showed maximum winds of around 40 kt. Based on these
data, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 55 kt.

Cristina has not strengthened as much as anticipated. However, the
storm still has about another 36 hours in favorable environmental
conditions of wind shear of 10 kt or less, mid-level humidities
between 75 and 80 percent, and SSTs of 26 C or warmer. During that
period it still seems likely that Cristina will strengthen and it
could become a hurricane. After 36 hours, Cristina is expected to
move over much cooler waters and into a notably drier and more
stable air mass. These conditions should promote a steady weakening
trend, and Cristina will likely become a remnant low in 4 or 5
days. The NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than the
previous one and in good agreement with the IVCN consensus model.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 10 kt. A mid-level
ridge located over the southwestern U.S. is expected to strengthen
in place, and that should cause Cristina to move a little faster to
the west-northwest during the next few days. After that time, the
weaker and likely vertically shallow storm should turn toward the
west in the low-level trade wind flow. The model tracks remain
tightly packed, and the new NHC track forecast is largely an update
of the previous one.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 16.8N 109.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 17.6N 110.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 18.6N 112.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 19.6N 115.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 11/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 11/1800Z 20.9N 121.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 12/0600Z 21.1N 124.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 13/0600Z 21.2N 129.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/0600Z 21.4N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

2020-07-09 08:32


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 090830
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
300 AM MDT Thu Jul 09 2020

...CRISTINA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.8N 109.4W
ABOUT 370 MI...590 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 420 MI...680 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 16.8 North, longitude 109.4 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the
next few days. On the forecast track, Cristina will remain well
offshore of the coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and Cristina could
become a hurricane by Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

2020-07-09 08:32


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 090830
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
0900 UTC THU JUL 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.4W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 109.4W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 109.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.6N 110.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.6N 112.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.6N 115.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.3N 118.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.9N 121.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.1N 124.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 21.2N 129.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 21.4N 135.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 109.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

2020-07-09 04:04


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 090403

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 33.6N 77.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.07.2020 33.6N 77.1W WEAK
12UTC 09.07.2020 33.8N 76.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.07.2020 34.1N 75.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.07.2020 35.9N 75.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2020 37.0N 73.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2020 39.9N 72.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2020 42.7N 69.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2020 46.3N 66.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2020 50.8N 62.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2020 53.4N 53.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.07.2020 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 121.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.07.2020 15.4N 121.0W WEAK
12UTC 09.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 108.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.07.2020 15.9N 108.1W MODERATE
12UTC 09.07.2020 17.0N 109.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.07.2020 18.0N 111.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.07.2020 19.0N 114.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.07.2020 19.8N 117.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2020 20.4N 120.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.07.2020 20.8N 123.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.07.2020 21.1N 125.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.07.2020 21.4N 128.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2020 21.6N 131.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.07.2020 21.7N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.07.2020 21.7N 135.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 090403

>

2020-07-09 02:56


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 090400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 010 //
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 16.1N 108.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.1N 108.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.3N 110.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 18.3N 111.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 19.2N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 20.0N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.6N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.0N 122.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 21.2N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.6N 133.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
090400Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 108.8W.
09JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1107 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091000Z, 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-09 02:34


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 090233
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020

After the earlier convective hiatus, Cristina is now going through
a little bit of a bursting phase with new inner-core convection
developing just west of the center, with the latter feature showing
up quite nicely in 0139 UTC SSMI/S microwave satellite imagery. The
intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on satellite
classifications of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB, and 57 kt and 59 kt from
UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON, respectively.

Cristina is moving northwestward or 305/11 kt. The strong
subtropical ridge to the north and northeast of the tropical cyclone
should keep Cristina moving in that general direction tonight,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest at about the same
forward speed by Thursday morning. By 96 h and beyond, a rapidly
weakening and vertically shallow Cristina should turn westward under
the influence of brisk easterly trade wind flow. The latest NHC
model guidance remains in strong agreement on this evolving track
scenario, and the new track forecast closely follows the tightly
packed consensus models, which are a little south of the previous
advisory track.

Environmental and oceanic conditions are expected to remain
conducive for strengthening during the next 36-48 h while Cristina
remains over SSTs greater than 26 deg C. By 72 h and beyond, the
cyclone will be moving over much cooler water characterized by SSTs
near 22C by 96-120h, which is expected to induce steady weakening
despite the low vertical wind shear conditions. The new NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and the IVCN
intensity consensus, with Cristina still expected to become a
hurricane by late Thursday or early Friday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 16.4N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 17.3N 110.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 18.3N 111.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 19.2N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 20.0N 116.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 11/1200Z 20.6N 119.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 12/0000Z 21.0N 122.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 13/0000Z 21.2N 127.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 14/0000Z 21.6N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-07-09 02:34


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 090233
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020

...CRISTINA STRENGTHENS A LITTLE WHILE REMAINING WELL OFFSHORE THE
COAST OF MEXICO...
...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY EARLY FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 108.6W
ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 108.6 West. Cristina is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the west-northwest
is forecast to occur by Thursday morning, and that motion is should
continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, Cristina
will remain well offshore the coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next
48 hours, and Cristina is expected to become a hurricane by late
Thursday or early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-07-09 02:33


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 090232
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
0300 UTC THU JUL 09 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.6W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.6W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 108.2W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.3N 110.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 18.3N 111.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 19.2N 114.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 20.0N 116.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.6N 119.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 21.0N 122.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 21.2N 127.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 21.6N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 108.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

2020-07-08 22:00


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 082200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 15.6N 107.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.6N 107.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 17.0N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 18.0N 111.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.9N 113.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.8N 115.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.6N 118.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 21.1N 120.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.5N 126.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 22.0N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
082200Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 107.9W.
08JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1156 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090400Z, 091000Z, 091600Z AND 092200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-08 20:51


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 082050
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020

Cristina is having some difficulty this afternoon in maintaining
deep convection over its center. Briefly, the low-level center
became apparent via GOES-16 visible imagery just north of its main
convective mass. This exposed center was also confirmed by a 1756Z
37 GHz color image from the GPM satellite.

The more-easily-observed center allows for a confident assessment of
its northwest motion at 11 kt. Cristina should turn back to the
west-northwest at about the same rate of forward speed tomorrow as a
broad mid-level ridge builds north of the tropical storm. That
motion should continue for the next few days until Cristina turns to
the west and accelerates slightly as its remnant low is steered by
the near-surface trade winds. The global and hurricane dynamical
models are in close agreement on this forecast track, which is
slightly north of the previous advisory due to the more northward
initial position of Cristina.

The Dvorak classifications from SAB and TAFB not changing at
18Z as well as the partially exposed center indicate that
the earlier intensification has temporarily ceased. A 50-kt
maximum wind remains the current intensity, though the ASCAT-A pass
and SATCON satellite consensus suggests that this may be somewhat
generous.

Conditions are quite conducive for intensification in the short
term, as SSTs are above 28C, mid-level humidity is near 75 percent,
and deep tropospheric vertical shear is only 5-10 kt. However, the
SSTs are already cooling along the track of Cristina and it should
pass over the 27C SST isotherm in about 36-48 hours. After 48
hours, the thermodynamic components quickly become hostile for
the system. The statistical and mesoscale hurricane models have
backed off some more and the peak intensity has been lowered
slightly compared to the previous advisory. It does appear that
the opportunity for Cristina to rapidly intensify is diminishing.
Cristina is expected to become a remnant low in four to five days,
once deep convection ceases.

The aforementioned ASCAT-A scatterometer pass confirmed the rather
small size - 60 nm maximum wind radii in the southeastern quadrant
- of Cristina this afternoon. Only a modest increase in size is
expected over the next couple of days based on the RVCN consensus
technique.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 16.0N 107.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 18.9N 113.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 19.8N 115.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 11/0600Z 20.6N 118.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 11/1800Z 21.1N 120.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 13/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Landsea


>

2020-07-08 20:46


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 082044
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
300 PM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020

...CRISTINA CONTINUING AS A TROPICAL STORM WELL OFFSHORE THE COAST
OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 107.7W
ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 107.7 West. Cristina is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward
the west-northwest is expected by tomorrow morning, and that motion
is should continue for the next few days. On the forecast
track, Cristina will remain well offshore the coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours and
Cristina is expected to become a hurricane by late Thursday or
early Friday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea


>

2020-07-08 20:45


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 082044
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
2100 UTC WED JUL 08 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 107.7W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 107.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 17.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 18.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.9N 113.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.8N 115.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.6N 118.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.1N 120.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.5N 126.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 22.0N 132.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 107.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA



>

2020-07-08 16:04


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 081602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 08.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 33.2N 78.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.07.2020 0 33.2N 78.7W 1012 22
0000UTC 09.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.9N 122.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.07.2020 0 14.9N 122.1W 1008 23
0000UTC 09.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ANALYSED POSITION : 14.6N 106.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.07.2020 0 14.6N 106.6W 1001 37
0000UTC 09.07.2020 12 16.1N 108.0W 997 39
1200UTC 09.07.2020 24 17.5N 109.9W 993 44
0000UTC 10.07.2020 36 18.2N 111.8W 989 45
1200UTC 10.07.2020 48 19.1N 114.1W 980 55
0000UTC 11.07.2020 60 20.0N 116.9W 985 50
1200UTC 11.07.2020 72 20.7N 119.7W 992 42
0000UTC 12.07.2020 84 21.1N 122.8W 998 37
1200UTC 12.07.2020 96 21.1N 125.6W 1001 35
0000UTC 13.07.2020 108 21.0N 128.2W 1003 33
1200UTC 13.07.2020 120 21.3N 130.8W 1005 29
0000UTC 14.07.2020 132 21.7N 133.3W 1008 25
1200UTC 14.07.2020 144 22.1N 135.7W 1011 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 33.2N 76.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.07.2020 24 33.2N 76.3W 1008 31
0000UTC 10.07.2020 36 34.4N 75.8W 1006 33
1200UTC 10.07.2020 48 36.1N 74.8W 1005 36
0000UTC 11.07.2020 60 37.5N 74.5W 1002 36
1200UTC 11.07.2020 72 39.6N 73.6W 998 35
0000UTC 12.07.2020 84 42.2N 70.8W 997 30
1200UTC 12.07.2020 96 44.1N 67.5W 997 31
0000UTC 13.07.2020 108 47.7N 62.8W 997 26
1200UTC 13.07.2020 120 49.7N 56.3W 1000 33
0000UTC 14.07.2020 132 51.1N 50.1W 1004 33
1200UTC 14.07.2020 144 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081602

>

2020-07-08 15:12


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 081600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 14.2N 106.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 106.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.4N 108.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 16.6N 110.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.6N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.5N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.5N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 20.2N 119.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.0N 124.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.5N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081600Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 107.1W.
08JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1252 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 082200Z, 090400Z, 091000Z AND 091600Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-08 14:59


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 081457
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020

First light satellite images show that the convective organization
of Cristina is gradually improving, while banding features are
developing across the northern portion of the circulation. The
center remains underneath the northeastern side of the main area of
convection due to moderate shear, but this shear appears to be
diminishing. The initial intensity has been increased to 50 kt,
which is a blend of the subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from
TAFB and SAB.

Cristina turned to the northwest and slowed down to about 10 kt this
morning. A turn back toward the west-northwest is expected to occur
later today or tonight, and this motion is forecast to continue for
the next few days as the cyclone is steered by a large ridge
centered over the southwestern United States. Later in the forecast
period, a turn to the west is expected as the weakening cyclone
becomes steered by the low-level easterlies. The track guidance is
tightly clustered, and the NHC forecast lies near the middle of
the envelope.

The decreasing shear over Cristina combined with warm SSTs and a
moist air mass should allow the cyclone to intensify over the next
couple of days. After that time, the system will cross over the 26
C isotherm and enter into a drier and more stable atmospheric
environment. This should cause a steady weakening trend to begin
after 48 h. Although the forecast still shows Cristina as a tropical
storm in 5 days, it is possible all of the deep convection would
have dissipated by that time. The latest NHC forecast is very close
to the intensity consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 14.6N 106.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 15.4N 108.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 16.6N 110.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 17.6N 112.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 18.5N 114.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 11/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 20.2N 119.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 12/1200Z 21.0N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 13/1200Z 21.5N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto


>

2020-07-08 14:54


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 081452
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
900 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020

...CRISTINA STRENGTHENING WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.6N 106.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 106.9 West. Cristina is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected by tonight, and that motion is expected
to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the
cyclone will remain well offshore the coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is expected over the next couple of days, and
Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2020-07-08 14:54


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 081452
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
1500 UTC WED JUL 08 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.9W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 106.9W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 106.5W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.4N 108.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 16.6N 110.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.6N 112.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.5N 114.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 20.2N 119.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.0N 124.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 21.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 106.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2020-07-08 10:35


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 13.7N 106.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.7N 106.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.9N 108.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.1N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.1N 111.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.0N 113.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.0N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 20.0N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 21.4N 123.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 21.9N 129.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
081000Z POSITION NEAR 14.1N 106.7W.
08JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1292 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND 091000Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-08 08:34


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 080832
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020

Satellite images indicate that deep convection has been gradually
increasing in association with Cristina during the past several
hours. However, the storm still lacks banding features and the
low-level center is located on the northeastern side of the
convection due to moderate wind shear. An ASCAT-B overpass from a
few hours ago showed maximum winds of only 30-35 kt in the
southeastern quadrant. The initial intensity is held at 40 kt for
this advisory blending the ASCAT data with the 3.0/45 kt Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB.

Cristina is forecast to remain over warm SSTs and in a moist air
mass for the next couple of days. These favorable conditions
combined with lessening wind shear should promote steady
strengthening during the next two days or so. However, beyond that
time, Cristina is expected to move over waters cooler than 26 C and
into a progressively drier and more stable environment. These
negative factors for the cyclone should promote weakening after 48
hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is again nudged downward
from the previous one, but it still lies at the high end of
the guidance in the short term in case Cristina takes advantage of
the generally conducive conditions for intensification.

The tropical storm has turned a little to the left recently, but
its longer term motion is still west-northwestward at 13 kt. A
deep-layer ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is expected to
remain stationary, and that should cause the cyclone to continue
moving west-northwestward at about the same forward speed for the
next 4 days or so. By the end of the forecast period, a slight
turn to the west is forecast as the weakening system is expected to
be steered by the low-level flow. The track models are tightly
packed, and only minor changes were made to the previous NHC
forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 13.9N 106.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 14.9N 108.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 16.1N 109.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 17.1N 111.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 18.0N 113.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 10/1800Z 19.0N 115.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 12/0600Z 21.4N 123.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 13/0600Z 21.9N 129.2W 40 KT 45 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

2020-07-08 08:34


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 080832
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
300 AM MDT Wed Jul 08 2020

...CRISTINA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WELL OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.9N 106.5W
ABOUT 380 MI...615 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 13.9 North, longitude 106.5 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days,
keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Cristina is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

2020-07-08 08:34


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 080832
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
0900 UTC WED JUL 08 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 106.5W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 180SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 106.5W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 106.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.9N 108.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.1N 109.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.1N 111.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.0N 113.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.0N 115.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 20.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 21.4N 123.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 21.9N 129.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.9N 106.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2020-07-08 04:05


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 080404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 32.7N 84.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.07.2020 0 32.7N 84.4W 1013 19
1200UTC 08.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 121.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.07.2020 0 14.7N 121.5W 1006 25
1200UTC 08.07.2020 12 15.8N 121.9W 1006 28
0000UTC 09.07.2020 24 16.4N 122.6W 1004 26
1200UTC 09.07.2020 36 16.7N 123.2W 1004 26
0000UTC 10.07.2020 48 17.3N 124.2W 1005 25
1200UTC 10.07.2020 60 17.3N 125.4W 1007 24
0000UTC 11.07.2020 72 17.3N 126.5W 1009 22
1200UTC 11.07.2020 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 104.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.07.2020 0 13.3N 104.8W 1003 26
1200UTC 08.07.2020 12 15.0N 106.8W 1003 31
0000UTC 09.07.2020 24 16.1N 108.9W 999 34
1200UTC 09.07.2020 36 16.7N 110.6W 996 38
0000UTC 10.07.2020 48 17.5N 112.2W 989 45
1200UTC 10.07.2020 60 18.3N 113.9W 976 62
0000UTC 11.07.2020 72 19.2N 116.1W 977 58
1200UTC 11.07.2020 84 20.0N 118.6W 983 53
0000UTC 12.07.2020 96 20.8N 121.2W 990 44
1200UTC 12.07.2020 108 21.5N 123.9W 996 41
0000UTC 13.07.2020 120 21.9N 126.6W 999 38
1200UTC 13.07.2020 132 22.3N 129.0W 1003 31
0000UTC 14.07.2020 144 22.8N 130.9W 1007 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 33.5N 76.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.07.2020 36 33.5N 76.9W 1008 29
0000UTC 10.07.2020 48 34.5N 76.7W 1007 32
1200UTC 10.07.2020 60 34.7N 75.6W 1006 32
0000UTC 11.07.2020 72 37.0N 74.3W 1003 33
1200UTC 11.07.2020 84 38.9N 73.3W 1000 37
0000UTC 12.07.2020 96 41.6N 70.5W 997 36
1200UTC 12.07.2020 108 45.0N 68.0W 995 34
0000UTC 13.07.2020 120 47.5N 64.5W 993 29
1200UTC 13.07.2020 132 49.5N 60.4W 994 33
0000UTC 14.07.2020 144 51.7N 54.4W 996 32


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080404

>

2020-07-08 04:05


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 080404

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 32.7N 84.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.07.2020 32.7N 84.4W WEAK
12UTC 08.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.7N 121.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP962020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.07.2020 14.7N 121.5W WEAK
12UTC 08.07.2020 15.8N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.07.2020 16.4N 122.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.07.2020 16.7N 123.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.07.2020 17.3N 124.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.07.2020 17.3N 125.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2020 17.3N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 104.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.07.2020 13.3N 104.8W WEAK
12UTC 08.07.2020 15.0N 106.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.07.2020 16.1N 108.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.07.2020 16.7N 110.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.07.2020 17.5N 112.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.07.2020 18.3N 113.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.07.2020 19.2N 116.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2020 20.0N 118.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.07.2020 20.8N 121.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.07.2020 21.5N 123.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.07.2020 21.9N 126.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2020 22.3N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.07.2020 22.8N 130.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 33.5N 76.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.07.2020 33.5N 76.9W WEAK
00UTC 10.07.2020 34.5N 76.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.07.2020 34.7N 75.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2020 37.0N 74.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2020 38.9N 73.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2020 41.6N 70.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2020 45.0N 68.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2020 47.5N 64.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2020 49.5N 60.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.07.2020 51.7N 54.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080404

>

2020-07-08 03:22


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 080400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 13.5N 104.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 104.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 14.7N 106.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.9N 108.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 17.0N 110.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 17.8N 112.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 18.8N 114.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 19.8N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 21.4N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 22.1N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
080400Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 105.4W.
08JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1337 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 081000Z, 081600Z, 082200Z AND 090400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-08 02:39


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 080237
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020

Since the previous advisory, Cristina's well-defined low-level
center became briefly exposed for a couple of hours, likely
resulting in a slight spin-down of the vortex. However, deep
convection has recently redeveloped over and southwest of the
center, so the intensity will be held at 40 kt for this advisory,
which is a blend of TAFB and SAB subjective satellite
classifications, and the most recent downward-trending UW-CIMSS ADT
estimate of T2.9/43 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or reasoning. The latest NHC
model guidance remains in excellent agreement on Cristina moving
west-northwestward south of a nearly stationary deep-layer
subtropical ridge for the next 5 days. The new NHC forecast track is
a tad north of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the
tightly packed simple and corrected consensus models.

High-resolution GOES-16 visible satellite imagery indicates that
Cristina's center has been moving closer to the center of the
synoptic-scale upper-level anticyclone where the vertical wind shear
should be lower. The recent burst of deep convection near the center
could the beginning stages of more significant strengthening owing
to the lower shear, high mid-level humidity near 80 percent, and
sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) near 29C. Therefore, steady
strengthening is forecast for the next 60 h while the cyclone
remains over warm SSTs, and a period of rapid intensification (RI)
is still possible during the next couple of days. By 72 h and
beyond, however, Cristina will be moving over sub-26 deg C SSTs that
will decrease to about 22C by 120 h, with the much cooler water
inducing steady weakening on days 4-5. The NHC intensity forecast
is similar to the IVCN intensity guidance through 36 hours, and
then is slightly higher than the guidance in order to maintain
continuity with the previous intensity forecast and also due to the
possibility of RI occurring.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 13.8N 105.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 14.7N 106.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 15.9N 108.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 17.0N 110.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 17.8N 112.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 10/1200Z 18.8N 114.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 12/0000Z 21.4N 121.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 13/0000Z 22.1N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-07-08 02:38


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 080236
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
1000 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020

...CRISTINA EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.8N 105.3W
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 105.3 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days,
keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Cristina is expected to become a hurricane by Thursday.

Cristina is a small tropical cyclone. Tropical-storm-force winds
only extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-07-08 02:38


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 080236
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
0300 UTC WED JUL 08 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.3W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 105.3W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 104.7W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 14.7N 106.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.9N 108.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.0N 110.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 17.8N 112.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 18.8N 114.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 19.8N 116.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 21.4N 121.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 22.1N 127.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 105.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-07-07 21:57


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 12.7N 103.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.7N 103.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 13.8N 105.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 15.0N 107.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 16.1N 109.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 17.0N 110.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 18.0N 112.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 19.0N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 20.5N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 21.8N 125.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
072200Z POSITION NEAR 13.1N 104.0W.
07JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1419 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 080400Z, 081000Z, 081600Z AND 082200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-07-07 20:35


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 072033
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
400 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020

Cristina is still being affected by some northeasterly vertical wind
shear as visible satellite imagery shows that the center is located
near the northeastern edge of the large curved convective band. The
various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range
from 35 to 45 kt, and a recent ASCAT overpass revealed a small area
of 35-40 kt wind vectors near the center. Based on these data, the
initial intensity is set at 40 kt. The moderate vertical wind shear
over the system is forecast to abate over the next 12-24 hours.
This, along with SSTs of 28-29C, should allow for strengthening and
Cristina is still forecast to become a hurricane in a day or two.
Although Cristina has not strengthened as much as anticipated over
the past 24 hours, with the more favorable atmospheric conditions
anticipated beginning Wednesday, a period of steady to rapid
strengthening is still possible. The latest intensity guidance
shows a slightly lower peak wind speed than before, so the new NHC
intensity forecast has been nudged in that direction. After 72
hours, Cristina will be moving over cooler waters and steady
weakening is expected later in the period.

Satellite fixes show that Cristina is moving west-northwestward or
305/11 kt. There has been no significant change to the track foreast
reasoning. Cristina should continue on a west-northwestward
heading over the next several days to the south of a large mid-level
ridge over the southwestern United States. The overall track
guidance envelop has shifted slightly northward, so the NHC track
forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new track forecast lies
between the previous official foreast and the most recent consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 13.0N 103.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 13.8N 105.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 15.0N 107.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 16.1N 109.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 17.0N 110.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
60H 10/0600Z 18.0N 112.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 19.0N 114.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/1800Z 20.5N 119.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/1800Z 21.8N 125.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-07-07 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 072033
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
400 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020

...CRISTINA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.0N 103.8W
ABOUT 415 MI...670 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 13.0 North, longitude 103.8 West. Cristina is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue for the next few days, keeping the
cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico.

Satellite wind data indicate that the maximum sustained winds are
near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening
is anticipated and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane in a
day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-07-07 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 072033
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
2100 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 103.8W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 103.8W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 103.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.8N 105.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 15.0N 107.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.1N 109.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 17.0N 110.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 18.0N 112.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 19.0N 114.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 20.5N 119.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 21.8N 125.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 103.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

2020-07-07 16:01


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 071600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 07.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4N 83.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.07.2020 0 33.4N 83.2W 1014 17
0000UTC 08.07.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 102.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.07.2020 0 12.1N 102.4W 1006 26
0000UTC 08.07.2020 12 13.6N 104.5W 1005 25
1200UTC 08.07.2020 24 15.0N 107.0W 1005 26
0000UTC 09.07.2020 36 16.3N 109.5W 1001 31
1200UTC 09.07.2020 48 16.7N 111.6W 998 37
0000UTC 10.07.2020 60 17.0N 113.0W 993 46
1200UTC 10.07.2020 72 18.1N 114.3W 983 58
0000UTC 11.07.2020 84 19.4N 116.2W 979 57
1200UTC 11.07.2020 96 20.0N 118.3W 985 50
0000UTC 12.07.2020 108 21.1N 120.5W 991 40
1200UTC 12.07.2020 120 22.1N 123.0W 996 39
0000UTC 13.07.2020 132 22.7N 125.4W 1000 37
1200UTC 13.07.2020 144 23.0N 127.7W 1004 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.7N 122.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.07.2020 24 14.7N 122.3W 1006 28
0000UTC 09.07.2020 36 15.0N 122.5W 1005 27
1200UTC 09.07.2020 48 16.4N 122.9W 1004 28
0000UTC 10.07.2020 60 16.7N 123.5W 1002 31
1200UTC 10.07.2020 72 17.0N 125.1W 1003 29
0000UTC 11.07.2020 84 17.1N 126.4W 1006 26
1200UTC 11.07.2020 96 16.9N 127.5W 1007 26
0000UTC 12.07.2020 108 16.6N 128.2W 1008 23
1200UTC 12.07.2020 120 15.9N 128.2W 1009 22
0000UTC 13.07.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 34.5N 75.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.07.2020 72 34.5N 75.4W 1007 34
0000UTC 11.07.2020 84 35.9N 73.4W 1003 34
1200UTC 11.07.2020 96 37.3N 72.1W 997 42
0000UTC 12.07.2020 108 41.2N 69.4W 991 39
1200UTC 12.07.2020 120 43.3N 66.3W 991 38
0000UTC 13.07.2020 132 47.1N 63.2W 993 32
1200UTC 13.07.2020 144 49.7N 60.4W 994 34


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071600

>

2020-07-07 16:01


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 071600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.07.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4N 83.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.07.2020 33.4N 83.2W WEAK
00UTC 08.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.1N 102.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.07.2020 12.1N 102.4W WEAK
00UTC 08.07.2020 13.6N 104.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.07.2020 15.0N 107.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.07.2020 16.3N 109.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.07.2020 16.7N 111.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.07.2020 17.0N 113.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.07.2020 18.1N 114.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.07.2020 19.4N 116.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2020 20.0N 118.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.07.2020 21.1N 120.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.07.2020 22.1N 123.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.07.2020 22.7N 125.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2020 23.0N 127.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 14.7N 122.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.07.2020 14.7N 122.3W WEAK
00UTC 09.07.2020 15.0N 122.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.07.2020 16.4N 122.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.07.2020 16.7N 123.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.07.2020 17.0N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2020 17.1N 126.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2020 16.9N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2020 16.6N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2020 15.9N 128.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 34.5N 75.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.07.2020 34.5N 75.4W WEAK
00UTC 11.07.2020 35.9N 73.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2020 37.3N 72.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.07.2020 41.2N 69.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.07.2020 43.3N 66.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2020 47.1N 63.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.07.2020 49.7N 60.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071600

>

2020-07-07 15:33


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 071600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 12.0N 102.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.0N 102.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 12.9N 104.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 13.9N 106.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 15.0N 108.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.9N 110.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.9N 112.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 17.9N 113.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 19.5N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121200Z --- 21.0N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
071600Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 103.0W.
07JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1485 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072200Z, 080400Z, 081000Z AND 081600Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-07 14:50


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 071448
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020

Early morning microwave and first-light visible imagery revealed
that the center of Cristina was located well to the east-northeast
of previous estimates. The center is now located near the end of
a long curved band that goes around portions of its western
semicircle. The center position relative to the convection suggests
that at least some northeasterly shear is negatively affecting the
organization of Cristina and it may not be well vertically aligned
yet. Various satellite intensity estimates have increased since the
last advisory, but were also based in part on an assumption that the
center of Cristina was located farther west, so the initial wind
speed has been conservatively held at 35 kt for now.

The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted a fair amount to the
east of the previous one, mainly due to the updated initial
position. That said, the overall thinking behind the forecast has
not changed. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S.
should steer Cristina on a general west-northwestward path through
the end of the week. The official forecast is very near the latest
multi-model consensus at all forecast times.

The shear and some nearby dry air that appear to have
inhibited Cristina's organization so far are not expected to
persist as negative factors for much longer. All of the models
still forecast strengthening, and given the very favorable
environment that the cyclone will encounter in a day or two,
a period of rapid intensification at some point would not be
surprising. The NHC forecast remains near the high end of the
guidance envelope, near the HFIP Corrected Consensus. Cristina
is forecast to reach cooler waters that will likely lead to
weakening over the weekend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 12.2N 102.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 12.9N 104.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 15.0N 108.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 15.9N 110.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 17.9N 113.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 19.5N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/1200Z 21.0N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-07-07 14:48


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 071446
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
1000 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020

...CRISTINA FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A DAY OR TWO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.2N 102.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 12.2 North, longitude 102.8 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue for the next few days,
keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is anticipated and Cristina is forecast to become a
hurricane in a day or two.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2020-07-07 14:47


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 071445
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
1500 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 102.8W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 102.8W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 102.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.9N 104.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.9N 106.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 15.0N 108.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.9N 110.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.9N 112.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 17.9N 113.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 19.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 21.0N 123.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 102.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2020-07-07 09:15


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 071000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 11.3N 101.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.3N 101.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 12.2N 104.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 13.3N 106.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 14.3N 108.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 15.3N 109.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 16.3N 111.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 17.3N 113.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 18.9N 117.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 20.5N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
071000Z POSITION NEAR 11.6N 102.6W.
07JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1536 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071600Z, 072200Z, 080400Z AND 081000Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-07 08:33


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 070831
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020

Deep convection is gradually expanding over the center of Cristina
and in curved bands over the western portion of the circulation.
An ASCAT-B overpass from around 0430 UTC showed maximum winds of
around 35 kt. Based on that data and Dvorak estimates of T2.5/35
kt from TAFB, SAB, and automated values from CIMSS at the
University of Wisconsin, the initial wind speed is held at 35 kt.

Cristina is expected to strengthen during the next few days due to
the favorable environmental conditions of low wind shear and warm
SSTs, and its developing compact inner core as observed in
satellite data. The only limiting factor is some dry air that has
entrained into the eastern portion of the circulation. However,
given the largely conducive conditions for strengthening, the NHC
intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance
during the next 3 days. Although it is not explicitly forecast,
rapid intensification could occur sometime during the next couple
of days. Cristina will likely be moving over SSTs below 26 C and
into a drier and more stable air mass late this week and this
weekend, and that should induce a weakening trend. This intensity
forecast is mostly an update of the previous one and in best
agreement with corrected consensus model HCCA.

Satellite fixes indicate that Cristina is moving west-northwestward
at about 11 kt. The track forecast reasoning is fairly
straightforward. A mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern
U.S. is expected to strengthen in place during the next several
days. This should keep Cristina on a west-northwestward path well
offshore of Mexico through the remainder of the week and into this
weekend. Only minor changes were made to the previous NHC track
forecast, and this prediction lies near the middle of the guidance
envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 11.5N 102.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 12.2N 104.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 13.3N 106.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 14.3N 108.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 15.3N 109.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 16.3N 111.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 17.3N 113.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 18.9N 117.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

2020-07-07 08:32


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 070831
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
400 AM CDT Tue Jul 07 2020

...CRISTINA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.5N 102.4W
ABOUT 535 MI...860 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 11.5 North, longitude 102.4 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next few days,
keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Cristina is
forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


>

2020-07-07 08:32


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 070830
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
0900 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 102.4W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 102.4W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 101.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.2N 104.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.3N 106.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.3N 108.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.3N 109.8W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.3N 111.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.3N 113.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 18.9N 117.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 20.5N 122.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N 102.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI



>

2020-07-07 04:02


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 070402

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.07.2020

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD ANALYSED POSITION : 43.6N 43.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.07.2020 43.6N 43.9W WEAK
12UTC 07.07.2020 47.0N 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 98L ANALYSED POSITION : 32.3N 86.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL982020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.07.2020 32.3N 86.6W WEAK
12UTC 07.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM 05E ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 100.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP052020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.07.2020 11.3N 100.1W WEAK
12UTC 07.07.2020 12.5N 102.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.07.2020 13.2N 105.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.07.2020 14.5N 107.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.07.2020 15.6N 110.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.07.2020 16.0N 111.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.07.2020 16.6N 113.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.07.2020 17.5N 114.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.07.2020 18.7N 115.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.07.2020 19.6N 117.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.07.2020 20.7N 119.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.07.2020 21.1N 121.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.07.2020 21.7N 123.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 14.8N 122.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.07.2020 14.8N 122.6W WEAK
00UTC 09.07.2020 14.9N 121.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.07.2020 16.0N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.07.2020 16.2N 123.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.07.2020 16.7N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2020 16.8N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2020 16.7N 129.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2020 16.6N 130.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2020 16.1N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 33.8N 76.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.07.2020 34.0N 75.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.07.2020 35.0N 75.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.07.2020 36.4N 73.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.07.2020 38.4N 72.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.07.2020 41.0N 70.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.07.2020 43.6N 67.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.07.2020 46.9N 63.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070402

>

2020-07-07 02:59


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA) WARNING NR 002
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 10.9N 100.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 10.9N 100.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 11.9N 103.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 12.9N 105.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 13.9N 107.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 14.8N 109.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 15.7N 110.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 16.5N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 18.1N 116.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 19.9N 121.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 101.5W.
07JUL20. TROPICAL STORM 05E (CRISTINA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1587 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-07-07 02:33


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 070232
TCDEP5

Tropical Storm Cristina Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that convection has increased and
become better organized since the previous advisory, although
convection has waned somewhat during the past couple of hours due
to entrainment of dry mid-level air. A 2213Z SSMI overpass showed a
small but well-defined mid-level eye feature in the 85 GHz data and
the latest TAFB satellite classification was T2.0/30 kt. Based on
the improved banding features and the mid-level eye, the intensity
has been increased to a conservative 35 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 300/13 kt, based on a blend of TAFB
and microwave satellite fixes. Cristina is expected to be steered
west-northwestward throughout the forecast period along the southern
periphery of a large deep-layer ridge that extends westward from the
south-central and southwestern United States. The latest NHC model
guidance has become more tightly packed around the previous forecast
track, so only minor tweaks were made in the form of a slightly
faster forward speed. The NHC track forecast lies close to the
simple consensus models, which are a little south of the
corrected-consensus model HCCA.

Cristina is expected to remain in quite favorable environmental and
oceanic conditions for the next 72 h or so. The small inner-core
eye-like feature and the expected low vertical shear and impressive
upper-level outflow conditions suggest that rapid intensification
(RI) could occur at some point occur during that time. However,
recent entrainment of dry mid-level air into the eastern
semicircle has eroded convection in that part of the circulation,
and the dry air may have even penetrated into and disrupted the
inner core itself. Given the aforementioned uncertainty in the
structure of the cyclone, RI is not being explicitly forecast at
this time, although the official intensity forecast is higher than
the previous advisory through 96 h. By 120 h, significant weakening
should be well underway when Cristina will be moving over 24-deg-C
sea-surface temperatures. The NHC official intensity forecast
follows the trend of the previous forecast, and there is a distinct
possibility that Cristina could undergo RI and also become a major
hurricane if the inner-core region has not been disrupted.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 11.2N 101.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 11.9N 103.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 12.9N 105.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 13.9N 107.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 14.8N 109.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 15.7N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 16.5N 112.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 18.1N 116.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 19.9N 121.6W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-07-07 02:33


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 070231
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristina Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
1000 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 101.3W
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM SSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
ABOUT 575 MI...925 KM SSE OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristina was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 101.3 West. Cristina is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue during the next few days,
keeping the cyclone well away from the coast of Mexico.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72
hours, and Cristina is forecast to become a hurricane by Wednesday
morning.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-07-07 02:33


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 070231
TCMEP5

TROPICAL STORM CRISTINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
0300 UTC TUE JUL 07 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 101.3W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 101.3W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 100.8W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 11.9N 103.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.9N 105.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.9N 107.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.8N 109.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 15.7N 110.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 16.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 18.1N 116.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 19.9N 121.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 101.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

2020-07-06 20:39


Original Message :

WTPZ45 KNHC 062038
TCDEP5

Tropical Depression Five-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020

Satellite imagery shows that deep convection associated with the
low pressure area south of Mexico has become significantly better
organized since this morning. ASCAT data from earlier this
afternoon suggested that the circulation was still somewhat
elongated, but since that time low cloud motions indicate that
the circulation has become better defined. The scatterometer data
also revealed believable wind vectors of at least 30 kt, with
higher rain-inflated vectors within the deep convection. Based on
these data, advisories are being initiated on a 30-kt tropical
depression at this time.

The depression is located within a favorable environment consisting
of low vertical wind shear, warm sea-surface temperatures, and a
moist atmosphere. As a result, steady strengthening is anticipated
over the next several days, and the NHC forecast calls for the
cyclone to become a hurricane in about 48 hours. The NHC intensity
forecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus aids IVCN
and HCCA, but is not quite as bullish as the SHIPS guidance. Given
the anticipated low wind shear conditions over the next few days, a
period of rapid strengthening is possible, and this intensity
forecast could be somewhat conservative. The cyclone is expected to
move over cooler waters in about 96 hours, which should cause
weakening by the end of the period.

Since the depression is still in its formative stage, the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 295/11 kt. The depression is being
steered west-northwestward to the south of a large mid-level ridge
located over the south-central United States. A general
west-northwestward heading about around the same forward speed is
expected over the next several days. The dynamical model guidance
is in fairly good agreement on this scenario and the NHC track
forecast lies near the various consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 10.5N 99.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 11.2N 101.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 12.1N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 13.0N 105.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 09/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 15.7N 110.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 17.2N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 18.8N 118.7W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-07-06 20:39


Original Message :

WTPZ35 KNHC 062037
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Five-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052020
400 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO STEADILY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.5N 99.7W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Five-E
was located near latitude 10.5 North, longitude 99.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue during the next few
days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is predicted during the next 48 hours and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight, and it
could become a hurricane on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-07-06 20:38


Original Message :

WTPZ25 KNHC 062037
TCMEP5

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052020
2100 UTC MON JUL 06 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 99.7W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 99.7W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 99.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 11.2N 101.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 12.1N 103.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 13.0N 105.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.1N 107.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 15.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.7N 110.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 17.2N 114.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 18.8N 118.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.5N 99.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>