Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for BORIS-20
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2020-06-28 04:03


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 280401

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.06.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 106.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.06.2020 15.6N 106.1W WEAK
12UTC 28.06.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 141.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.06.2020 12.2N 141.6W WEAK
12UTC 28.06.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 33.0N 73.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.07.2020 33.0N 72.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.07.2020 35.0N 69.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.07.2020 38.0N 65.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.07.2020 41.8N 61.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.07.2020 44.8N 54.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.07.2020 47.8N 42.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.07.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280401

>

2020-06-28 03:01


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 280400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BORIS) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BORIS) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 12.2N 141.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 141.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 11.8N 143.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 11.2N 145.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 10.5N 147.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
280400Z POSITION NEAR 12.1N 142.2W.
28JUN20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BORIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
894 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 281000Z, 281600Z, 282200Z AND 290400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-06-28 02:41


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 280240
TCDCP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Boris Discussion Number 15
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP032020
500 PM HST Sat Jun 27 2020

The low-level circulation center of Boris has been exposed through
most of the day. There have been only two, brief flare ups of deep
convection near the center during the past 24 hours with another
one starting now. The system is also surrounded by dry air aloft as
southeasterly vertical wind shear persists, and JTWC, PHFO, and SAB
all deemed the system too weak to classify this afternoon. Thus,
Boris will be designated as a post-tropical remnant low with an
intensity of 25 kt. Additional bursts of convection can be expected
as the system slowly spins down over the next couple of days, even
as vertical wind shear relaxes on Sunday.

The center of Boris is moving toward the west-southwest (255/07 kt)
under the influence of a deep ridge to the north. This general
motion, along with a slight increase in forward speed, is expected
to continue over the next couple of days until dissipation. The
track forecast is essentially an update from the last advisory and
remains within a tightly clustered guidance envelope.

This is the last advisory issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center on Boris. Additional information on this system can be found
in the High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
in Honolulu under AWIPS header HFOHSFNP and WMO header FZPN40 PHFO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 12.1N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 28/1200Z 11.8N 143.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 29/0000Z 11.2N 145.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/1200Z 10.5N 147.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

2020-06-28 02:38


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 280237
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Boris Advisory Number 15
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP032020
500 PM HST Sat Jun 27 2020

...BORIS WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.1N 142.0W
ABOUT 1015 MI...1635 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1225 MI...1975 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Boris
was located near latitude 12.1 North, longitude 142.0 West. The
post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west-southwest near 8 mph
(13 km/h). This motion, along with a slight increase in forward
speed, is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The
remnant low is expected to dissipate in a couple of days.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the Central Pacific
Hurricane Center on Boris. Additional information on the
post-tropical low can be found in high seas forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service under AWIPS head HFOHSFNP, WMO header
FZPN40 PHFO, and on the web at https://www.weather.gov/hfo/HSFNP

$$
Forecaster Wroe


>

2020-06-28 02:37


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 280237
TCMCP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP032020
0300 UTC SUN JUN 28 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 142.0W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 255 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.1N 142.0W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 141.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 11.8N 143.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 11.2N 145.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 10.5N 147.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.1N 142.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
REMNANT LOW CAN BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HONOLULU UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOHSFNP...AND WMO HEADER FZPN40 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER WROE



>

2020-06-27 21:09


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 272200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BORIS) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BORIS) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271800Z --- NEAR 12.3N 141.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 141.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 12.1N 142.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 11.6N 144.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 11.0N 146.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
272200Z POSITION NEAR 12.2N 141.5W.
27JUN20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BORIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
926 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 280400Z, 281000Z, 281600Z AND 282200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-06-27 20:47


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 272045
TCDCP1

Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP032020
1100 AM HST Sat Jun 27 2020

A burst of deep convection in the northwest quadrant of Boris
flared earlier this morning and has collapsed in the past hour,
exposing the low-level circulation center. Dvorak Current Intensity
estimates range from 1.0 at SAB to 1.5 out of PHFO and ADT, while
JTWC has deemed the system unclassifiable. Given the recent burst of
deep convection, we will hold the initial intensity at 30 kt,
though this could be generous. The depression continues to move
toward the west (265 degrees) at 6 kt.

Boris is expected to slowly weaken over the next couple of days.
Southerly vertical wind shear will limit the depth of the
circulation and will likely only allow deep convection to
periodically flare and collapse near the center. The system will
also continue to ingest relatively dry low- to mid-level air. As a
result, the depression is expected to degenerate into a remnant low
tonight or Sunday and dissipate on Monday. The official intensity
forecast has changed little and remains in line with LGEM, SHIPS,
and ICON. Guidance remains in good agreement that a deep ridge to
the north is expected to push the increasingly shallow system
toward the west then west-southwest until dissipation.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 12.3N 141.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 12.1N 142.4W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 11.6N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 29/0600Z 11.0N 146.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Wroe

>

2020-06-27 20:42


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 272042
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Boris Advisory Number 14
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP032020
1100 AM HST Sat Jun 27 2020

...BORIS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 141.3W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1685 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Boris
was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 141.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue today. Some increase in
forward speed and a gradual turn toward the west-southwest is
expected tonight and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next two days. Boris is expected
to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or Sunday and dissipate on
Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Wroe


>

2020-06-27 20:41


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 272040
TCMCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP032020
2100 UTC SAT JUN 27 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 141.3W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 141.3W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 141.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.1N 142.4W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 11.6N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 11.0N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 141.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER WROE



>

2020-06-27 16:02


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 271601

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.06.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.2N 110.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.06.2020 0 16.2N 110.9W 1007 20
0000UTC 28.06.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS ANALYSED POSITION : 12.5N 140.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.06.2020 0 12.5N 140.4W 1008 24
0000UTC 28.06.2020 12 12.2N 141.5W 1009 24
1200UTC 28.06.2020 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 33.7N 74.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.06.2020 72 33.7N 74.3W 1007 29
0000UTC 01.07.2020 84 34.4N 71.4W 1006 28
1200UTC 01.07.2020 96 36.7N 68.6W 1005 38
0000UTC 02.07.2020 108 40.3N 65.0W 998 44
1200UTC 02.07.2020 120 43.8N 60.9W 998 37
0000UTC 03.07.2020 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.7N 101.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2020 96 12.7N 101.6W 1005 26
0000UTC 02.07.2020 108 13.6N 104.5W 1002 31
1200UTC 02.07.2020 120 14.9N 107.5W 1000 35
0000UTC 03.07.2020 132 15.8N 110.5W 997 38
1200UTC 03.07.2020 144 16.7N 113.0W 1000 33


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271601

>

2020-06-27 15:23


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 271600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BORIS) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BORIS) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
271200Z --- NEAR 12.3N 140.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 140.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.3N 141.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.0N 143.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 11.5N 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 10.8N 147.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
271600Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 140.8W.
27JUN20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BORIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
956 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 272200Z, 280400Z, 281000Z AND 281600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-06-27 14:42


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 271441
TCDCP1

Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP032020
500 AM HST Sat Jun 27 2020

Mid- and high-level clouds that had been obscuring Boris' low-level
circulation center (LLCC) have cleared, leaving it nearly
completely exposed, despite a recent short-lived burst of
thunderstorms in the northwest quadrant. A 0710Z ASCAT-C pass and a
1110Z VIIRS image (nighttime visible) were helpful in center-
locating, adding confidence to the initial motion estimate of 270/06
kt. A blend of available analyses and intensity estimates supports
maintaining the initial intensity at 30 kt.

Boris is moving through an environment characterized by
debilitating southerly wind shear, and dry low- to mid-level
air, which should prevent significant convection from persisting
over the LLCC. Therefore, Boris will likely degenerate into a
remnant low by tomorrow, and the updated official intensity
forecast offers little change, and is in line with the intensity
consensus. As Boris weakens, guidance indicates it will be
increasingly steered by a surface high to the distant north, with a
subtle turn toward the west-southwest anticipated before dissipation
occurs early next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 12.3N 140.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 12.3N 141.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 12.0N 143.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 11.5N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/1200Z 10.8N 147.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

2020-06-27 14:37


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 271436
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Boris Advisory Number 13
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP032020
500 AM HST Sat Jun 27 2020

...BORIS TRACKING SLOWLY WEST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.3N 140.7W
ABOUT 1085 MI...1745 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1295 MI...2085 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Boris
was located near latitude 12.3 North, longitude 140.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue today. Some increase in
forward speed and a gradual turn toward the west-southwest is
expected Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next two days, and Boris is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area by tomorrow,
and dissipate on Monday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-06-27 14:35


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 271434
TCMCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP032020
1500 UTC SAT JUN 27 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 140.7W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 140.7W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 140.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.3N 141.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.0N 143.1W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 11.5N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 10.8N 147.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 140.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

2020-06-27 09:54


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 271000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BORIS) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 12.6N 139.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 139.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 12.8N 140.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.9N 141.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.7N 143.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 12.4N 145.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 11.7N 147.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
270400Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 139.9W.
27JUN20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BORIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
989 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271000Z, 271600Z, 272200Z
AND 280400Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-06-27 08:49


Original Message :

WTPA41 PHFO 270847
TCDCP1

Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP032020
1100 PM HST Fri Jun 26 2020

After a brief burst of deep convection earlier this afternoon,
thunderstorms associated with Boris have since waned. Lingering mid-
and high-level clouds are obscuring the low-level circulation
center (LLCC) in latest infrared satellite images, reducing
confidence as to its exact location. Microwave passes at 0313Z and
0419Z were helpful in locating the center, and we are fairly
confident that poorly-organized Boris has entered the central
Pacific. Boris is the first June tropical cyclone in the
basin since Barbara in 2001, and only the second on record, dating
back to 1966. The current intensity estimate remains 30 kt, in
relative agreement with latest intensity estimates from SAB, PHFO,
UW-CIMSS and CIRA.

Boris is estimated to be moving 270/06 kt through an environment
characterized by debilitating southerly wind shear, and an
increasingly dry low- to mid-level air mass. These factors should
prevent significant convection from persisting over the LLCC, and
Boris will likely degenerate into a remnant low over the weekend.
The updated official intensity forecast is very close to the
previous one, and close to the statistical and dynamical guidance.
As Boris weakens, it will be increasingly steered by the low-level
trade wind flow, with reliable guidance indicating a turn toward
the west-southwest before dissipating. The official track forecast
follows suit, in reasonable agreement with the latest model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 12.4N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 12.4N 141.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 12.4N 142.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 12.1N 144.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 29/0600Z 11.6N 146.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Birchard

>

2020-06-27 08:44


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 270843 CCA
TCMCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP032020
0900 UTC SAT JUN 27 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 140.5W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 140.5W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 140.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.4N 141.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.4N 142.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.1N 144.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 11.6N 146.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 140.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

2020-06-27 08:42


Original Message :

WTPA31 PHFO 270842
TCPCP1

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Boris Advisory Number 12
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP032020
1100 PM HST Fri Jun 26 2020

...BORIS ENTERS THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 140.5W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1300 MI...2095 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Boris
was located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 140.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). This
motion is expected to continue on Saturday, with a slightly south of
westward motion expected Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Boris is
forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area by Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Birchard


>

2020-06-27 08:37


Original Message :

WTPA21 PHFO 270836
TCMCP1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP032020
0900 UTC SAT JUN 27 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 140.5W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 140.5W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 140.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.4N 141.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.4N 142.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.1N 144.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 11.6N 146.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 140.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BIRCHARD



>

2020-06-27 04:02


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 270400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 27.06.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 109.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.06.2020 0 16.1N 109.0W 1007 27
1200UTC 27.06.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 139.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.06.2020 0 12.3N 139.6W 1006 31
1200UTC 27.06.2020 12 12.5N 140.4W 1008 23
0000UTC 28.06.2020 24 12.3N 141.5W 1009 25
1200UTC 28.06.2020 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.4N 101.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.07.2020 108 13.4N 101.7W 1006 24
0000UTC 02.07.2020 120 14.7N 104.1W 1003 28
1200UTC 02.07.2020 132 16.1N 106.6W 1003 30
0000UTC 03.07.2020 144 17.1N 108.9W 1002 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270400

>

2020-06-27 04:01


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 270400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.06.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 109.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.06.2020 16.1N 109.0W WEAK
12UTC 27.06.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 139.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.06.2020 12.3N 139.6W WEAK
12UTC 27.06.2020 12.5N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.06.2020 12.3N 141.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.06.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 13.4N 101.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.07.2020 13.4N 101.7W WEAK
00UTC 02.07.2020 14.7N 104.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.07.2020 16.1N 106.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.07.2020 17.1N 108.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270400

>

2020-06-27 03:11


Original Message :

WTPN31 PHNC 270400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BORIS) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BORIS) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 12.6N 139.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 139.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 12.8N 140.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 12.9N 141.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 12.7N 143.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 12.4N 145.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 60 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
60 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 11.7N 147.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
270400Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 139.9W.
27JUN20. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 03E (BORIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
989 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 270000Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 271000Z, 271600Z, 272200Z
AND 280400Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-06-27 02:42


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 270240
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 PM HST Fri Jun 26 2020

There was a brief burst of deep convection over the estimated
center of Boris but, overall, the system is not very well
organized. The cloud pattern is elongated from southwest to
northeast which is indicative of significant shear over the
cyclone. The current intensity estimate remains 30 kt in agreement
with a Dvorak classification from TAFB. Boris will be moving
through an environment of south-southwesterly shear associated with
a large upper-level low and associated trough near and to the west
of 140W. This shear, along with relatively dry mid-level air,
should cause gradual weakening and Boris will likely degenerate into
a remnant low over the weekend. The official intensity forecast is
the same as the previous one, and similar to the latest DSHIPS and
LGEM guidance.

Boris appears to have turned back toward a west-northwesterly
heading and the motion estimate is 290/6 kt. The cyclone is
expected to turn westward within the next 12 to 24 hours in
response to a mid-level ridge to its north. Thereafter, the
weakening low should begin to move a little south of west while
embedded in the low-level trade wind flow. The official track
forecast is in reasonable agreement with the latest model consensus.

Since Boris is about to cross 140W longitude, it will be moving
into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility,
and this is the last NHC advisory on this system. Future
information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued
by the Central Pacific Hurricane Center beginning at 11 PM HST,
under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1, WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web
at http://hurricanes.gov/cphc.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 12.7N 139.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 12.8N 140.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 12.9N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 12.7N 143.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 12.4N 145.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/1200Z 11.7N 147.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2020-06-27 02:41


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 270239
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Boris Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 PM HST Fri Jun 26 2020

...BORIS ABOUT TO ENTER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.7N 139.9W
ABOUT 1115 MI...1795 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 2090 MI...3360 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Boris
was located near latitude 12.7 North, longitude 139.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11
km/h). A turn toward the west is expected on Saturday, and a
westward to slightly south of westward motion is expected through
Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Boris is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low pressure area by
Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Future information on this system can be
found in Public Advisories issued by the Central Pacific Hurricane
Center beginning at 11 PM HST, under AWIPS header HFOTCPCP1,
WMO header WTPA31 PHFO, and on the web at
http://hurricanes.gov/cphc.

$$
Forecaster Pasch


>

2020-06-27 02:41


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 270239
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020
0300 UTC SAT JUN 27 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 139.9W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 139.9W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 139.6W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.8N 140.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.9N 141.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.7N 143.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.4N 145.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 11.7N 147.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 139.9W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FUTURE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN FORECAST/ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER BEGINNING AT 0900 UTC...UNDER AWIPS HEADER HFOTCMCP1...WMO
HEADER WTPA21 PHFO.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2020-06-26 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 262032
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
1100 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020

Visible satellite imagery shows that the center of Boris is a
little farther to the north than indicated in the previous
advisory. The cyclone has a good low-level circulation, but the
associated convection is currently disorganized due to a
combination of southerly vertical wind shear and mid-level dry air
entrainment. The initial intensity is held at 30 kt as a blend of
various satellite intensity estimates. A combination of shear, dry
mid-level air, and marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to
cause slow weakening, with the cyclone now forecast to degenerate
to a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate completely after 60 h. The
new intensity forecast is little changed from the previous forecast
and lies near the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is a little uncertain, with the best estimate
315/6. Boris should turn west-northwestward during the next 12 h
or so while the small cyclone remains to the south of a low- to
mid-level ridge. Subsequently, the weakening cyclone is forecast
to turn westward and west-southwestward with some increase in
forward speed in the low-level trade wind flow. The new official
track forecast follows the general direction of the previous
one, but with some adjustments from the previous forecast due
to the more northward initial position.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 12.5N 139.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 12.7N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 12.9N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 12.7N 144.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0600Z 12.3N 146.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-06-26 20:33


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 262031
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Boris Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
1100 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020

...CENTER OF BORIS IS A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 139.1W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 2045 MI...3290 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Boris
was located near latitude 12.5 North, longitude 139.1 West. The
depression is now moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h).
A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today or
tonight, with a turn toward the west-southwest expected by Saturday
night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Boris is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by
Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

2020-06-26 20:33


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 262031
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020
2100 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 139.1W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N 139.1W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 138.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.7N 139.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.9N 140.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.9N 142.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.7N 144.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 12.3N 146.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N 139.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

2020-06-26 16:03


Original Message :

WTNT82 EGRR 261602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.06.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 106.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.06.2020 0 16.0N 106.9W 1008 23
0000UTC 27.06.2020 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 138.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.06.2020 0 12.0N 138.7W 1006 27
0000UTC 27.06.2020 12 12.4N 139.6W 1006 30
1200UTC 27.06.2020 24 12.6N 140.6W 1008 23
0000UTC 28.06.2020 36 12.5N 141.8W 1009 24
1200UTC 28.06.2020 48 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261602

>

2020-06-26 16:03


Original Message :

WTNT80 EGRR 261602

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.06.2020

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.0N 106.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.06.2020 16.0N 106.9W WEAK
00UTC 27.06.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS ANALYSED POSITION : 12.0N 138.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP032020

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.06.2020 12.0N 138.7W WEAK
00UTC 27.06.2020 12.4N 139.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.06.2020 12.6N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.06.2020 12.5N 141.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.06.2020 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261602

>

2020-06-26 14:45


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 261442
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020

Boris is showing signs of being affected by vertical wind shear,
with the strongest convection now being displaced a little to the
northeast of the center. The initial intensity remains 30 kt as a
blend of subjective estimates from TAFB and SAB and the CIMSS
satellite consensus. A combination of shear, dry mid-level air, and
marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to produce a slow
weakening trend, with the cyclone now forecast to degenerate to a
remnant low by 48 h and dissipate completely after 72 h. The new
intensity forecast lies near the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is west-northwestward or 295/7. Boris should
move west-northwestward during the next day or so while the small
cyclone remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After
that time, the weakening cyclone is forecast to turn westward, then
west-southwestward with some increase in forward speed in the
low-level trade wind flow. The new official track forecast has
only minor adjustments from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 12.0N 139.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 12.2N 139.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 12.5N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 12.5N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 12.4N 144.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 29/0000Z 12.1N 146.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/1200Z 11.5N 148.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-06-26 14:43


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 261442
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Boris Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 AM HST Fri Jun 26 2020

...BORIS CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 139.0W
ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 2055 MI...3305 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Boris
was located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 139.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph
(11 km/h), and this motion should continue through tonight.
A turn toward the west is expected late tonight or on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
Boris is forecast to degenerate to a remnant low pressure area
Saturday night or Sunday,

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

2020-06-26 14:43


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 261441
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020
1500 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 139.0W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 139.0W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 138.7W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.2N 139.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.5N 141.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.5N 142.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.4N 144.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 12.1N 146.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 11.5N 148.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 139.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

2020-06-26 08:52


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 260851
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Boris Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
1100 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020

...BORIS WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION WHILE MAINTAINING A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 138.5W
ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 2035 MI...3275 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Boris
was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 138.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue through Friday afternoon. A
turn toward the west is forecast by Friday night, with a westward or
west-southwestward motion continuing through Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight and
Friday morning. After that time, Boris is forecast to gradual
weaken, and degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


>

2020-06-26 08:49


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 260847
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Boris Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
1100 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020

Deep convection associated with Boris has been pulsing the past
several hours, but overall there has been a general decrease in
coverage and depth of the associated thunderstorm activity. The
initial intensity has been lowered to 30 kt based on a 0525Z ASCAT-A
pass. The combination of the entrainment of dry mid-level air and
marginal sea-surface temperatures is expected to produce a slow
weakening trend over the next 72 hours. The new NHC intensity
forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and calls for
Boris to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h, and dissipate
shortly after 72 h.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290/07 kt.
The forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous advisory,
and the new NHC track forecast is essentially just an update of the
previous advisory track. Boris is expected to move
west-northwestward during the next day or so while the small cyclone
remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that time,
Boris is forecast to turn westward, then west-southwestward later
in the forecast period as the cyclone weakens even further and is
steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The updated NHC forecast
track is very close to the previous official track forecast, and
lies near the southern edge of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 11.6N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 12.4N 141.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 12.3N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0600Z 11.7N 147.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-06-26 08:41


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 260839
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Boris Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
1100 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020

...BORIS WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION MAINTAINING A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 138.5W
ABOUT 1235 MI...1990 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 2035 MI...3275 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Boris
was located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 138.5 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h)
and this motion is expected to continue through Friday afternoon. A
turn toward the west is forecast by Friday night, with a westward or
west-southwestward motion continuing through Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight and
Friday morning. After that time, Boris is forecast to gradual
weaken, and degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-06-26 08:37


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 260835
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020
0900 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 138.5W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 138.5W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 138.2W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.4N 141.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.3N 143.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 11.7N 147.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 138.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

2020-06-26 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 260234
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020

Deep convection associated with Boris has decreased in coverage
since the previous advisory, however a new band of convection has
recently developed over the eastern semicircle of the cyclone. The
initial wind speed remains 35 kt and is based on the earlier ASCAT
data and a Dvorak current intensity (CI) number of T2.5 or 35 kt
from SAB. Boris remains within an area of low vertical wind shear
and over warm sea surface temperatures, however dry mid-level air
just to the north and northwest of the storm continues to be
entrained into the circulation. As a result, little change in
strength is anticipated over the next 12 h or so, and after that
time, Boris will be moving into the drier and more stable air
mass which should cause gradual weakening. The new NHC intensity
forecast is unchanged from the previous advisory, and calls for
Boris to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 h, and dissipate
between 72 and 96 h.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward or 290 at 8 kt.
The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged from the previous
advisory. Boris should move west-northwestward during the next 24
hours while it remains to the south of a low- to mid-level ridge.
After that time, the cyclone should turn westward, then west-
southwestward later in the forecast period as the cyclone weakens
and is steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The updated NHC
forecast track is very close to the previous official forecast, and
along the southern side of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 11.4N 137.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 11.8N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 12.1N 140.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 12.3N 141.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 12.3N 142.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 28/1200Z 12.1N 144.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 29/0000Z 11.8N 146.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-06-26 02:35


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 260234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Boris Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2020

...BORIS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 137.9W
ABOUT 1280 MI...2055 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 2005 MI...3230 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Boris was
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 137.9 West. Boris is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through Friday afternoon. A turn
toward the west is forecast by Friday night, with a west or
west-southwest motion continuing through Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected tonight. After that, Boris is
forecast to weaken back to a depression on Friday or Friday night,
and degenerate into a remnant low by Saturday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brown


>

2020-06-26 02:35


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 260233
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020
0300 UTC FRI JUN 26 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 137.9W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 137.9W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 137.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 11.8N 138.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.1N 140.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.3N 141.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.3N 142.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.1N 144.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 11.8N 146.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.4N 137.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

2020-06-25 20:55


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 252052
TCDEP3

Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
1100 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020

Convection has increased further in association with the tropical
cyclone, with the center now under a poorly-organized band or dense
overcast. A just-received ASCAT-A overpass indicates that 35-kt
winds are occurring over an area about 40 n mi from the center in
the southeastern semicircle and based on this, the depression is
upgraded to Tropical Storm Boris.

While conditions appear to be favorable for some additional
strengthening for the next 12 h or so, none of the intensity
guidance forecasts significant intensification during that time.
Thus, the intensity forecast holds the intensity at 35 kt through 12
h. After that time, increasing vertical wind shear and dry air
entrainment should cause Boris to weaken, leading to the system
degenerating to a remnant low by 60 h and dissipating completely
after 72 h. The new intensity forecast has been adjusted downward,
but it still is a little above the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is now west-northwestward or 285/8. This motion
should continue for the next 24 h or so as Boris moves along the
south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, a turn toward
the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone weakens and
the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering mechanism.
The new forecast track has only minor changes from the previous
forecast, and it again lies the near consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 11.2N 137.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 11.5N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 12.3N 141.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
60H 28/0600Z 12.2N 143.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-06-25 20:48


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 252047
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Boris Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
1100 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BORIS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.2N 137.1W
ABOUT 1330 MI...2145 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1965 MI...3160 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Boris was
located near latitude 11.2 North, longitude 137.1 West. Boris is
moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue tonight. A turn toward the west is
forecast Friday or Friday night, with this motion continuing
through Saturday.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds
have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little
change in strength is expected tonight. After that, Boris is
forecast to weaken back to a depression Friday or Friday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

2020-06-25 20:48


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 252046
TCMEP3

TROPICAL STORM BORIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020
2100 UTC THU JUN 25 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 137.1W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 137.1W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 136.7W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.5N 138.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 11.9N 139.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.2N 140.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.3N 141.6W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.2N 143.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 12.0N 145.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.2N 137.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2020-06-25 14:38


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 251436
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020

Convection has increased some this morning near the center of
Tropical Depression 3-E, although the convective bands are poorly
organized. The initial intensity remains 30 kt in agreement with
satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB, along with
scatterometer data from several hours ago.

Although the depression has not intensified since yesterday, the
intensity guidance suggests that the window for strengthening is
open for about another 12-24 h. So, the intensity forecast shows
slight strengthening during that period. After that time,
increasing vertical wind shear and dry air entrainment should cause
the system to weaken, leading to it degenerating to a remnant low
by 72 h and dissipating completely after 96 h. The new intensity
forecast is a little above the intensity consensus.

The initial motion is westward or 280/8. A turn toward the
west-northwest is expected during the next 24 h as the system moves
along the south side of a low- to mid-level ridge. After that, a
turn toward the west and west-southwest is forecast as the cyclone
weakens and the low-level trade winds become the dominant steering
mechanism. The new forecast track is an update of the previous
forecast and lies the near consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 10.8N 136.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 11.2N 137.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 11.7N 138.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 12.0N 139.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 12.2N 140.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 28/0000Z 12.3N 141.9W 25 KT 30 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 12.2N 143.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/1200Z 11.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-06-25 14:36


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 251435
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 AM HST Thu Jun 25 2020

...DEPRESSION HAS NOT STRENGTHENED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 136.2W
ABOUT 1400 MI...2250 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1925 MI...3095 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 136.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, with a turn back
toward the west forecast Friday or Friday night,

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours, and the
depression could become a tropical storm later today or tonight.
After that, the system is forecast to weaken.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

2020-06-25 14:36


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 251434
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020
1500 UTC THU JUN 25 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 136.2W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 136.2W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 135.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.2N 137.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 11.7N 138.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.0N 139.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.2N 140.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.3N 141.9W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 12.2N 143.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 11.5N 148.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 136.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

2020-06-25 08:37


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 250835
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
1100 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

Thunderstorm activity has waned significantly near the center of the
small cyclone, and is now restricted to the southwestern quadrant
due to the ingestion of a large slug of dry mid-level air from the
north and northeast. The intensity has been held at 30 kt, and is
based on continuity with the previous advisory, and satellite
current intensity estimates of T2.0/30 kt and T1.5/25 from TAFB and
SAB, respectively.

The small depression has been moving westward or 275/07 kt. The
cyclone is forecast by the global models to move generally
west-northwestward for the next 3 days along the southern periphery
of a deep-layer ridge. Thereafter, a weakening and more shallow
system is expected to turn toward the west and then west-southwest
after moving into the Central Pacific basin. The new NHC track
forecast is south of the previous advisory track, and lies close to
a blend of the consensus models TVCE, GFEX, and HCCA.

Despite moving through a regime of very light wind shear and over
SSTs of at least 27 deg C for the next 2-3 days, the depression will
skirt along the southwestern edge of an expansive region of cool,
dry air located over the mid-Pacific. The statistical SHIPS and LGEM
intensity models now show no intensification during the next 5 days,
while the global and regional models show only very modest
strengthening. The small size of the cyclone argues for at least
some strengthening since only a small increase in convection
can quickly spin up the low-level field. However, proximity to the
aforementioned cool, stable air should prevent any significant
intensification. By 72h and beyond, the unfavorable combination of
increasing northwesterly vertical wind shear, marginal SSTS, and a
drier air mass are expected to cause the tropical cyclone to
degenerate into a remnant low over the Central Pacific hurricane
basin. The new official intensity forecast is a little lower than
the previous advisory, and closely follows the consensus models IVCN
and HCCA.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 10.6N 135.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 10.9N 136.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 11.4N 137.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 11.8N 138.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 12.1N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 27/1800Z 12.3N 140.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 12.4N 142.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0600Z 11.8N 146.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0600Z 10.9N 151.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-06-25 08:36


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 250834
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
1100 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 135.4W
ABOUT 1455 MI...2340 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1885 MI...3030 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 135.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue this morning. A motion toward
the west-northwest is forecast to begin by this afternoon and
continue through Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next day or so,
and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or
on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2020-06-25 08:36


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 250834
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020
0900 UTC THU JUN 25 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 135.4W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 135.4W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 135.1W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 10.9N 136.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 11.4N 137.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 11.8N 138.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 12.1N 139.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 12.3N 140.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 12.4N 142.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 11.8N 146.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 10.9N 151.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 135.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2020-06-25 02:37


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 250234
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

There has been little change in the organization of the depression
since the previous advisory. Deep convection that was located over
the southern portion of the circulation waned during the early
afternoon, but a new convective burst has developed within the past
couple of hours to the south of the exposed low-level center.
The intensity has been held at 30 kt, and is based on the earlier
ASCAT data and the most recent Dvorak CI numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Although the depression is moving over warm waters and within an
area of low wind shear, water vapor imagery indicates that mid-level
dry air is located near and just north of the cyclone which is
likely the cause of the lack of convection over the northern
portion of the circulation. As a result, only modest strengthening
is anticipated over the next 24 to 36 hours. After that time, dry
air and gradually decreasing SSTs along the forecast track are
likely to cause weakening. The latest intensity guidance is
slightly lower than the previous cycle, and the NHC intensity
forecast has been adjusted accordingly. The new official intensity
forecast is in best agreement with the latest HFIP corrected
consensus aid.

The depression has been moving more westward than expected, with an
initial motion estimate of 285/8 kt. A cut-off low well to the
north-northwest of the depression is expected to weaken the
deep-layer ridge that is currently steering the cyclone. This
should cause the depression to turn northwestward on Thursday, with
this motion continuing over the next couple of days. By 60-72 h,
the weakening tropical cyclone should turn back toward the west as
it is steered by the low-level flow. Later in the period, the
remnant low is forecast to turn west-southwestward within the trade
wind flow over the central Pacific. The latest track model
envelope has shifted somewhat southward, which has required a
southward adjustment to the official forecast. The new NHC forecast
lies between the previous advisory and the latest consensus aids,
along the northern portion of the guidance envelope.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 10.6N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 10.9N 135.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 11.4N 136.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 12.1N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 12.5N 138.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
60H 27/1200Z 12.7N 139.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 12.8N 141.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 29/0000Z 12.5N 145.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 30/0000Z 11.5N 149.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-06-25 02:36


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 250234
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 PM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

...DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 134.7W
ABOUT 1495 MI...2405 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1840 MI...2965 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 134.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15
km/h). A west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the
next two to three days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and
the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or
on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2020-06-25 02:35


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 250233
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020
0300 UTC THU JUN 25 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 134.7W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 134.7W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 134.4W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 10.9N 135.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.4N 136.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.1N 137.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 12.5N 138.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 12.7N 139.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 12.8N 141.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 12.5N 145.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 11.5N 149.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 134.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2020-06-24 20:34


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 242031
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
1100 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Three-E has a
small and well-defined circulation with the center just to the
northeast of the main convective mass. A recent ASCAT-B overpass
showed 25-30 kt winds to the southeast of the center and 20-25 kt
winds in other parts of the circulation. Based on this, the
initial intensity remains 30 kt.

The initial motion is now 290/8. There is no change in the
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. A deep-layer ridge
to the north of the cyclone is weakening as a mid- to upper-level
trough develops to the northwest and west. This evolution should
cause the depression to move northwestward between 12-60 h. After
that, the cyclone should be weakening with the low-level trade
winds becoming the main steering mechanism, resulting in a
west-southwestward motion for the balance of the forecast period.
There is some spread in the forward speed between the faster GFS
and the slower UKMET/ECMWF, and the new official forecast
compromises between them in a track that is near, but a little
faster than, the consensus models.

There is also no change to the intensity forecast reasoning.
Conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the first 36 h or
so, and the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical
storm during that time. Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind
shear and dry air entrainment should cause a gradual weakening, and
most of the global models forecast dissipation near 120 h. The
intensity guidance for this advisory is weaker than the previous
guidance, so the new intensity forecast, which is little
changed, now lies near the upper end of the guidance through 72 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 10.6N 133.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 11.0N 134.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 11.5N 135.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 12.2N 136.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 12.9N 137.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
60H 27/0600Z 13.3N 138.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 13.4N 140.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 13.0N 144.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 29/1800Z 12.0N 149.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-06-24 20:32


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 242031
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
1100 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

...DEPRESSION NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 133.8W
ABOUT 1550 MI...2495 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1790 MI...2880 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 133.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h).
A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight and Thursday, with
this motion continuing through Friday.

Recently received satellite wind data indicate that the maximum
sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight or on
Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

2020-06-24 20:32


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 242031
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020
2100 UTC WED JUN 24 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 133.8W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 133.8W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.5N 133.5W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 11.0N 134.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 11.5N 135.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 12.2N 136.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.9N 137.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.3N 138.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 13.4N 140.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 13.0N 144.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 12.0N 149.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.6N 133.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



>

2020-06-24 14:59


Original Message :

WTPZ43 KNHC 241457
TCDEP3

Tropical Depression Three-E Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

The small low pressure area well southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has acquired enough organized
convection near and southwest of the center to be designated a
tropical depression. Thus, advisories are being initiated on
Tropical Depression 3-E. The initial intensity is set at 30 kt in
agreement with satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

The initial motion is 275/6. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the
cyclone is weakening as a mid- to upper-level trough develops to the
northwest and west. This evolution should cause the depression to
move northwestward between 24-72 h. After that, the cyclone should
be weakening with the low-level trade winds becoming the main
steering mechanism, resulting in a west-southwestward motion for the
balance of the forecast period. The official track forecast is near
the various consensus models.

Conditions appear favorable for strengthening for the first 36 h or
so, and the depression is expected to strengthen into a tropical
storm during that time. Beyond that time, increasing vertical wind
shear and dry air entrainment should cause a gradual weakening
trend, and most of the global models forecast dissipation near
120 h. The forecast peak intensity of 45 kt is near the upper end
of the intensity guidance, with the remainder of the forecast near
the intensity consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 10.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 10.5N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 11.0N 135.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 11.7N 136.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 12.6N 137.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 13.2N 138.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 13.5N 139.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 13.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 12.5N 148.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2020-06-24 14:57


Original Message :

WTPZ33 KNHC 241456
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Three-E Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032020
500 AM HST Wed Jun 24 2020

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EASTERN PACIFIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 132.9W
ABOUT 1615 MI...2605 KM ESE OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1755 MI...2820 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Three-E
was located near latitude 10.2 North, longitude 132.9 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn
toward the northwest is expected tonight and Thursday, with this
motion continuing through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm late tonight or
on Thursday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Beven


>

2020-06-24 14:57


Original Message :

WTPZ23 KNHC 241456
TCMEP3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032020
1500 UTC WED JUN 24 2020

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 132.9W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.2N 132.9W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.1N 132.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 10.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 11.0N 135.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 11.7N 136.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 12.6N 137.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 13.2N 138.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 13.5N 139.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 13.0N 144.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 12.5N 148.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.2N 132.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN



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