Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for NISARGA-20
in India

Global Telecommunication Service

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2020-06-04 06:49


Original Message :

WTIN20 DEMS 040648 COR
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 04.06.2020


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
04.06.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 04.06.2020.


BAY OF BENGAL:

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER EASTERN PARTS OF
EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AROUND 08TH JUNE 2020.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:



24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL


ARABIAN SEA:



THE DEPRESSION [REMNANT OF THE CYCLONIC STORM NISARGA LAY OVER
NORTHWEST VIDARBHA AND ADJOINING MADHYA PRADESH NEAR LATITUDE
21.2ON AND LONGITUDE 76.9OE.

ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHWEST MADHYA PRADESH, WEST VIDARBHA AND
ADJOINING NORTH MADHYA MAHARASHTRA. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE
IS MINUS 45 DEG C.

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS (OVER WESTCENTRAL
AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST AS) :

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL=

>

2020-06-04 06:43


Original Message :

WTIN20 DEMS 040640
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK


DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 04.06.2020



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL
AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC OF
04.06.2020 BASED ON 0300 UTC OF 04.06.2020.



BAY OF BENGAL:



SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER EASTCENTRAL ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF
BENGAL AND ANDAMAN SEA.

A LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER EASTERN PARTS OF
EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AROUND 08TH JUNE 2020.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS:

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

NIL NIL NIL NIL NIL


ARABIAN SEA:



THE DEPRESSION [REMNANT OF THE CYCLONIC STORM NISARGA LAY OVER
NORTHWEST VIDARBHA AND ADJOINING MADHYA PRADESH NEAR LATITUDE
21.2ON AND LONGITUDE 76.9OE.

ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW/MED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHWEST MADHYA PRADESH, WEST VIDARBHA AND
ADJOINING NORTH MADHYA MAHARASHTRA. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE
IS MINUS 45 DEG C.

SCATTERED LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY
INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER SOUTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL ARABIAN SEA.



PROBABILITY OF CYCLOGENESIS DURING NEXT 120 HRS (OVER WESTCENTRAL
AND ADJOINING SOUTHWEST AS) :

24 HOURS 24-48 HOURS 48-72 HOURS 72-96 HOURS 96-120 HOURS

LOW NIL NIL NIL NIL=

>

2020-06-03 13:54


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 031500
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 200603125520
2020060312 02A NISARGA 004 01 030 14 SATL RADR SYNP 030
T000 191N 0737E 065 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 210N 0758E 045
T024 227N 0782E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 19.1N 73.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 73.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.0N 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.7N 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 74.2E.
03JUN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (NISARGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
48 NM EAST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
0220053112 127N 722E 25
0220053118 127N 720E 25
0220060100 128N 716E 25
0220060106 131N 712E 25
0220060112 137N 710E 25
0220060118 143N 712E 30
0220060200 148N 713E 30
0220060206 158N 713E 30
0220060212 163N 714E 35
0220060218 168N 716E 45
0220060300 172N 721E 60
0220060300 172N 721E 60
0220060306 179N 729E 75
0220060306 179N 729E 75
0220060306 179N 729E 75
0220060312 191N 737E 65
0220060312 191N 737E 65
0220060312 191N 737E 65
NNNN

>

2020-06-03 13:39


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 19.1N 73.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.1N 73.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 21.0N 75.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 22.7N 78.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 74.2E.
03JUN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (NISARGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
48 NM EAST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 02A MADE LANDFALL AT ABOUT
03/0800Z AT A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KNOTS. SINCE THIS TIME, ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES GRADUAL WEAKENING AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS INLAND. RADAR IMAGERY AND A 031041Z SSMI 85GHZ
IMAGE, HOWEVER, DEPICT A RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH TIGHTLY-CURVED
BANDING, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON THE
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24
AS IT TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN GHATS AND THE DECCAN PLATEAU.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION.//
NNNN

>

2020-06-03 11:13


Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 031110
GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1030 UTC 03 JUNE 2020.



PART-I STORM WARNING :



THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM NISARGA OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA
MOVED NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 12 KNOTS DURING PAST
06 HOURS, CROSSED MAHARASHTRA COAST CLOSE TO SOUTH OF ALIBAGH WITH
A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 100-110 KMPH GUSTING TO 120 KMPH
BETWEEN 0700-0900 UTC OF TODAY, THE 03RD JUNE. IT LAY CENTRED AT
0900 UTC OF TODAY THE 03RD JUNE, 2020 OVER COASTAL MAHARASHTRA,
NEAR LATITUDE 18.5 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 73.2 DEG E, CLOSE TO
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ALIBAGH (MAHARASHTRA), 75 KM SOUTHEAST OF MUMBAI
(MAHARASHTRA) AND 65 KM WEST OF PUNE (MAHARASHTRA).

IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO
A CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 06 HOURS.





THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KTS GUSTING TO
65 KTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 HPA. (.)



12 HRS VALID 2020/06/03 AT 18 UTC 19.4 N / 73.9 E MAX WIND 30 KTS
DEEP DEPRESSION (.)

24 HRS VALID 2020/06/04 AT 06 UTC 20.8 N / 75.1 E MAX WIND 20 KTS
DEPRESSION (.)



PART-II NIL (.)



ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E: SW-LY 10/25 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE N OF

4 DEG N (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 4 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)W OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 4 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)W OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 76 DEG E: 1.5-4.0 MTR(.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION:S/SW-LY 15/25 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS

TO THE N OF 5 DEG N (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 76 DEG E: 1.5-4.0 MTR(.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 67 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N :

CYCLONIC 25/55 KTS (.)

2)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 67 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)

3)N OF 20 DEG N: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)S OF 14 DEG N TO W OF 60 DEG E: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)

2)S OF 14 DEG N TO W OF 60 DEG E: 8-6 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 21 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E: 9-14.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 3.5-7.0 MTR (.)



A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 21 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E AND

N OF 13 DEG N : CYCLONIC 20/25 KTS (.)

2)N OF 21 TO W OF 66 DEG E: CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS.

3)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E:WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)N OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TA(.)

3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)N OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)

3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 21 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E: 3.0-4.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 2.0-3.0 MTR (.)



BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80

DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG

E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 05/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 87 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 87 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 82 DEG E: 2.5-4.0 MTR(.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)EOF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 82 DEG E: 2.5-4.0 MTR(.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W-LY 05/10 KTS

TO THE E OF 91 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 87 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 87 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)



A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER:1)E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)=

>

2020-06-03 08:08


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 030900
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 200603065633
2020060306 02A NISARGA 003 01 045 10 SATL RADR 015
T000 179N 0729E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 195N 0745E 050
T024 214N 0764E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 17.9N 72.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 72.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.5N 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.4N 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 73.3E.
03JUN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (NISARGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
65 NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD
AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
0220053112 127N 722E 25
0220053118 127N 720E 25
0220060100 128N 716E 25
0220060106 131N 712E 25
0220060112 137N 710E 25
0220060118 143N 712E 30
0220060200 148N 713E 30
0220060206 158N 713E 30
0220060212 163N 714E 35
0220060218 168N 716E 45
0220060300 172N 721E 60
0220060300 172N 721E 60
0220060306 179N 729E 75
0220060306 179N 729E 75
0220060306 179N 729E 75
NNNN

>

2020-06-03 08:04


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 17.9N 72.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.9N 72.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 19.5N 74.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 21.4N 76.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 18.3N 73.3E.
03JUN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (NISARGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
65 NM SOUTH OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 02A HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 45 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS (FROM 30 TO 75 KNOTS). ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY DEPICT A 20-NM DIAMETER RAGGED
EYE WITH A BANDING FEATURE OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF
T4.5 (77 KNOTS), A 030415Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 73 KNOTS AND ADT
ESTIMATES OF 70-75 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH
NEAR-RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM
IS MAKING LANDFALL (AS OF 0800Z) AND IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE RAPIDLY WEAKENING.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, THEREFORE,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 02A IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
WESTERN GHATS AND THE DECCAN PLATEAU. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z AND
040300Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-06-03 02:37


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 030300
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 200603005216
2020060300 02A NISARGA 002 01 050 06 SATL RADR 015
T000 172N 0721E 055 R050 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 188N 0734E 045 R034 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 205N 0753E 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 17.2N 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.8N 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.5N 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 72.4E.
03JUN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (NISARGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 114 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
0220053112 127N 722E 25
0220053118 127N 720E 25
0220060100 128N 716E 25
0220060106 131N 712E 25
0220060112 137N 710E 25
0220060118 143N 712E 30
0220060200 148N 713E 30
0220060206 158N 713E 30
0220060212 163N 714E 35
0220060218 168N 716E 45
0220060300 172N 721E 55
0220060300 172N 721E 55
NNNN

>

2020-06-03 01:59


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 030200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 17.2N 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.8N 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.5N 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 72.4E.
03JUN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (NISARGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
123 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND SHALLOWER CONVECTIVE BANDING ON
THE NORTH. A 022046Z AMSR2 COLORIZED 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
A MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION AROUND APPROXIMATELY 50 PERCENT
OF THE LOW BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION, PLACED USING THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM INDIA. THE 55 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS
AVERAGED BETWEEN PGTW/DEMS DVORAK FIX INTENSITIES OF T3.0 (45 KTS)
AND A 022048Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 61 KTS. WITH LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-32 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL. FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, TC 02A WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). ALTHOUGH THE PEAK INTENSITY (55 KTS) IS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY, ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 8. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 02A WILL BEGIN
DISSIPATING AND FALL BELOW THE JTWC WARNING THRESHOLD PRIOR TO TAU
24. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THE SHORT DURATION OF
THE FORECAST, AND STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-06-03 01:19


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 17.2N 72.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 050 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.2N 72.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.8N 73.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 20.5N 75.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 17.6N 72.4E.
03JUN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (NISARGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
123 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND SHALLOWER CONVECTIVE BANDING ON
THE NORTH. A 022046Z AMSR2 COLORIZED 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS
A MICROWAVE EYE WITH DEEP CONVECTION AROUND APPROXIMATELY 50 PERCENT
OF THE LOW BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE CENTER. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION, PLACED USING THE AFOREMENTIONED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR IMAGERY FROM INDIA. THE 55 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS
AVERAGED BETWEEN PGTW/DEMS DVORAK FIX INTENSITIES OF T3.0 (45 KTS)
AND A 022048Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 61 KTS. WITH LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-32 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS VERY SUPPORTIVE FOR
CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION UNTIL LANDFALL. FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST, TC 02A WILL TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). ALTHOUGH THE PEAK INTENSITY (55 KTS) IS
THE INITIAL INTENSITY, ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY PRIOR TO
MAKING LANDFALL AROUND TAU 8. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 02A WILL BEGIN
DISSIPATING AND FALL BELOW THE JTWC WARNING THRESHOLD PRIOR TO TAU
24. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, THE SHORT DURATION OF
THE FORECAST, AND STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24 IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE PROVIDE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-06-02 19:47


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 022000
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 200602185911
2020060218 02A NISARGA 001 01 020 08 SATL 020
T000 170N 0717E 040 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 184N 0727E 045 R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 201N 0744E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 71.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 71.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.4N 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.1N 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 72.0E.
02JUN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (NISARGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 133 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
0220053112 127N 722E 25
0220053118 127N 720E 25
0220060100 128N 716E 25
0220060106 131N 712E 25
0220060112 137N 710E 25
0220060118 143N 712E 30
0220060200 148N 713E 30
0220060206 158N 713E 30
0220060212 163N 714E 35
0220060218 170N 717E 40
NNNN

>

2020-06-02 19:47


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 022000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021351ZJUN2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 71.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 71.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.4N 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.1N 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 72.0E.
02JUN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (NISARGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
143 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TIGHT BANDING,
DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION, AND EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, PLACED
USING THE ANIMATED EIR AND EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 021621Z GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 021531Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE. A 021645Z METOP-B
IMAGE THAT PASSED JUST EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
SHOWS A SWATH OF 40 KT WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE 40
KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE METOP-B PASS AND A 021315Z SMAP
WINDSPEED IMAGE SHOWING WINDS OVER 40 KTS IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE MOST
RECENT PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T2.5 (35 KTS). WITH
MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS,
THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION. TC 02A IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, THE TRACK WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES
TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NER. TC 02A SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL
JUST SOUTH OF MUMBAI SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL
THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD PRIOR
TO TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 021400).//
NNNN

>

2020-06-02 19:16


Original Message :

WTIO51 PGTW 022100
WARNING ATCG MIL 02A NIO 200602185911
2020060218 02A NISARGA 001 01 020 08 SATL 020
T000 170N 0717E 040 R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 184N 0727E 045 R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 201N 0744E 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 71.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 71.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.4N 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.1N 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 72.0E.
02JUN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (NISARGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 133 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.//
0220053112 127N 722E 25
0220053118 127N 720E 25
0220060100 128N 716E 25
0220060106 131N 712E 25
0220060112 137N 710E 25
0220060118 143N 712E 30
0220060200 148N 713E 30
0220060206 158N 713E 30
0220060212 163N 714E 35
0220060218 170N 717E 40
NNNN

>

2020-06-02 19:16


Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (NISARGA) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 17.0N 71.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 020 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 71.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 18.4N 72.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 20.1N 74.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3N 72.0E.
02JUN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (NISARGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
143 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS TIGHT BANDING,
DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION, AND EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNELS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION, PLACED
USING THE ANIMATED EIR AND EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 021621Z GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND A 021531Z METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE. A 021645Z METOP-B
IMAGE THAT PASSED JUST EAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
SHOWS A SWATH OF 40 KT WINDS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THE 40
KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE METOP-B PASS AND A 021315Z SMAP
WINDSPEED IMAGE SHOWING WINDS OVER 40 KTS IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE MOST
RECENT PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS T2.5 (35 KTS). WITH
MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS,
THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS INTENSIFICATION. TC 02A IS TRACKING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER). OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, THE TRACK WILL SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD AS IT CONTINUES
TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE NER. TC 02A SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL
JUST SOUTH OF MUMBAI SHORTLY AFTER TAU 12. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WILL SUPPORT SOME INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL
THE CYCLONE WILL WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE BELOW WARNING THRESHOLD PRIOR
TO TAU 24 AS IT TRACKS INLAND. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 030300Z, 030900Z AND 031500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 021400).//
NNNN

>

2020-06-02 18:43


Original Message :

WTIN01 DEMS 021800

GMDSS BULLETIN FOR MET. AREA VIII (N), NORTH OF EQUATOR

VALID FOR 24/48 HOURS FROM 1800 UTC 02 JUNE 2020.



PART-I STORM WARNING :



THE CYCLONIC STORM NISARGA OVER EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA MOVED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 07 KTS DURING PAST 06 HOURS, AND
LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY, THE 02ND JUNE, 2020 OVER
EASTCENTRAL ARABIAN SEA NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 DEG N AND LONGITUDE 71.3
DEG E, ABOUT 280 KM WESTNORTHWEST OF PANJIM (43192), 350 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI (43003), 300 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
ALIBAGH(43058) AND 560 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SURAT (42840). IT IS
VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY INTO A SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12
HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND CROSS NORTH
MAHARASHTRA AND ADJOINING SOUTH GUJARAT COAST BETWEEN HARIHARESHWAR
HARIHARESHWAR AND DAMAN(42916), CLOSE TO ALIBAG (RAIGAD DISTRICT,
MAHARASHTRA STATE) AROUND 0900 UTC OF 03RD JUNE AS A SEVERE CYCLONIC
STORM WITH A MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED OF 50-55 KTS GUSTING TO 65
KTS (.)



THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50
KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS HIGH TO VERY HIGH AROUND THE SYSTEM
CENTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 HPA (.)



12 HRS VALID 2020/06/03 AT 00 UTC 17.7 N / 72.0 E MAX WIND 50 KTS
SEVERE CYCCLIC STORM (.)

24 HRS VALID 2020/06/03 AT 12 UTC 19.2 N / 73.3 E MAX WIND 55 KTS
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM (.)



PART-II NIL (.)



ARB A1 ARABIAN SEA: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG. N AND W OF 80 DEG.E (.)

A1-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)W OF 62 DEG E: SW-LY 10/25 KTS (.)

2)REST AREA: S/SW-LY 05/10 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS TO THE N OF

4 DEG N (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)N OF 4 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)W OF 60 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)N OF 4 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)W OF 60 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 76 DEG E: 1.5-4.0 MTR(.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



A1-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: S/SW-LY 15/25 KTS BEC SW/W-LY 10/20 KTS

TO THE N OF 5 DEG N (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 4-3 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)E OF 76 DEG E: 1.5-4.0 MTR(.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



ARB A2-ARABIAN SEA:-23 DEG 45 MIN N 68 DEG E TO 12 DEG N 63 DEG E

TO CAPE GARDAFUI TO N OF 10 DEG N (.)

A2-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)E OF 67 DEG E TO S OF 22 DEG N :

CYCLONIC 50/55 KTS (.)

2)S OF 20 DEG N TO W OF 67 DEG E: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)

3)N OF 20 DEG N: SW-LY 10/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER:1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E : WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)S OF 14 DEG N TO W OF 60 DEG E: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

3)REST AREA: FAIR (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E : 3-2 NM (.)

2)S OF 14 DEG N TO W OF 60 DEG E: 8-6 NM (.)

3)REST AREA: 10-8 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 21 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E: 9-14.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 3.5-7.0 MTR (.)



A2-FORCAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: 1)S OF 21 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E AND

N OF 13 DEG N : CYCLONIC 30/35 KTS (.)

2)N OF 21 TO W OF 66 DEG E: CYCLONIC 05/15 KTS.

3)REST AREA: SW/W-LY 15/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)N OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TA(.)

3)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)S OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 60 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)N OF 20 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E: 3-2 NM(.)

3)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)S OF 21 DEG N TO E OF 67 DEG E: 6.0-9.0 MTR (.)

2)REST AREA: 3.5-5.5 MTR (.)



BOB A3-BAY OF BENGAL: EQUATOR TO 10 DEG N BETWEEN E OF 80

DEG E AND WEST OF 10 DEG N/98 DEG 30 MIN E TO 6 DEG N/95 DEG

E AND THENCE S-WARDS TO EQUATOR (.)

A3-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 05/20 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 87 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS(.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 87 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 82 DEG E: 2.5-4.0 MTR(.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



A3-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/25 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 86 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS(.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)EOF 86 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM(.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1)W OF 82 DEG E: 2.5-4.0 MTR(.)

2)REST AREA: 1.5-2.5 MTR (.)



BOB: A4: BAY OF BENGAL N OF 10 DEG N AND E OF 80 DEG E (.)

A4-FORECAST FOR 24 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW-LY 10/20 KTS BEC W-LY 05/10 KTS

TO THE E OF 91 DEG E (.)

II)WEATHER: 1)E OF 87 DEG E: FAIRLY WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 87 DEG E: 4-3 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)



A4-FORECAST FOR 48 HOURS

I)WINDSPEED AND DIRECTION: SW/W-LY 10/15 KTS (.)

II)WEATHER:1)E OF 85 DEG E: WIDESPREAD RA/TS (.)

2)REST AREA: ISOLATED RA/TS (.)

III)VISIBILITY: 1)E OF 85 DEG E: 3-2 NM (.)

2)REST AREA: 8-6 NM (.)

IV)WAVE HEIGHT: 1.5-2.0 MTR (.)

ISSUED BY INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT=

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