Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for HAROLD-20
in Tonga, Fiji, Vanuatu

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2020-04-08 20:00

WTPS51 PGTW 082100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200408193448
2020040818 25P HAROLD     025  01 120 27 SATL 020
T000 219S 1756W 110 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 045 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 175 SE QD 140 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 243S 1705W 095 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 150 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 274S 1643W 080 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 307S 1578W 060 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 130 NW QD
AMP
    012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 025
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 025
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z --- NEAR 21.9S 175.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 175.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 24.3S 170.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 27.4S 164.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 30.7S 157.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 174.3W.
08APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408
NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040706 171S1727E 110
2520040706 171S1727E 110
2520040706 171S1727E 110
2520040712 175S1742E 115
2520040712 175S1742E 115
2520040712 175S1742E 115
2520040718 183S1758E 110
2520040718 183S1758E 110
2520040718 183S1758E 110
2520040800 189S1777E 120
2520040800 189S1777E 120
2520040800 189S1777E 120
2520040806 197S1797E 120
2520040806 197S1797E 120
2520040806 197S1797E 120
2520040812 206S1781W 120
2520040812 206S1781W 120
2520040812 206S1781W 120
2520040818 219S1756W 110
2520040818 219S1756W 110
2520040818 219S1756W 110

>

2020-04-08 20:00

WTPS31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 025
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081800Z --- NEAR 21.9S 175.6W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.9S 175.6W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 24.3S 170.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 27.4S 164.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 30.7S 157.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 174.3W.
08APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 408
NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 27
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) PORTRAYS AN ELONGATED SYSTEM WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS
AND A PINHOLE EYE THAT BECAME RAGGED, THEN WAS SUBSUMED INTO THE
CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION, PLACED BY EXTRAPOLATING A PINHOLE EYE THAT THEN
DISAPPEARED. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE 110 KT INITIAL INTENSITY
BASED BETWEEN DVORAK FINAL AND CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF
T5.5 (102 KTS) TO T6.5 (127 KTS) AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CI
OF T6.4 (124 KTS) WHILE THE RAW T-NUMBER IS T4.8 (UNDER 90 KTS).
OBSERVATIONS FROM TONGA, 53 NM TO THE NORTHESAT, REPORTED WINDS OF
50G75 KTS AND 989 MB AT 081830Z AS THE FAST-MOVING SYSTEM PASSED TO
ITS SOUTH. THE CURRENT INTENSITIES ARE LIMITED BY SPIN-DOWN TIME FOR
THE TANGENTIAL WIND SPEEDS TO REFLECT THE CHANGES IN SECONDARY
CIRCULATION THAT DROVE THE WANING CONVECTION. HIGH (20-40 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CONVERGENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ARE
OFFSETTING ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, RESULTING IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND THE INCREASING DISORGANIZATION. FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 25P WILL ACCELERATE ALONG A SIMILAR
TRACK AS IT FOLLOWS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-
SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE DUE TO STRONG VWS AND SSTS BELOW 26
DEGREES CELSIUS AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 12, TC 25P
SHOULD BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND START
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). ETT SHOULD COMPLETE BY TAU 36 WITH
THE CYCLONE BECOMING A STORM FORCE, COLD CORE LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 41
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
//

>

2020-04-08 14:08

WTPS51 PGTW 081500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200408135213
2020040812 25P HAROLD     024  01 115 23 SATL 015
T000 206S 1781W 120 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 045 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 120 SE QD 105 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 228S 1733W 100 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 254S 1676W 085 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 286S 1610W 065 R064 030 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP
    012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 024
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 024
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 178.1W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 178.1W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 22.8S 173.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 25.4S 167.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 28.6S 161.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 176.9W.
08APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI,
 HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAV
E HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040706 171S1727E 110
2520040706 171S1727E 110
2520040706 171S1727E 110
2520040712 175S1742E 115
2520040712 175S1742E 115
2520040712 175S1742E 115
2520040718 183S1758E 110
2520040718 183S1758E 110
2520040718 183S1758E 110
2520040800 189S1777E 120
2520040800 189S1777E 120
2520040800 189S1777E 120
2520040806 197S1797E 120
2520040806 197S1797E 120
2520040806 197S1797E 120
2520040812 206S1781W 120
2520040812 206S1781W 120
2520040812 206S1781W 120

>

2020-04-08 14:08

WTPS31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 024
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   081200Z --- NEAR 20.6S 178.1W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 23 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.6S 178.1W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 22.8S 173.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 25.4S 167.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 28.6S 161.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 21.1S 176.9W.
08APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
248 NM SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 23
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION, PLACED NEAR THE CENTER OF A 20 NM OBLONG EYE.
THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE 115 KT INITIAL INTENSITY BASED ON
PGTW/PHFO DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T6.0-6.5 (115-127 KTS).
MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS PARTIALLY
OFFSETTING ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT LESS SUPPORTIVE THAN SIX
HOURS AGO. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 25P WILL ACCELERATE
ALONG A SIMILAR TRACK AS IT FOLLOWS THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY HOSTILE DUE TO STRONG VWS AND
COOL SST AS IT TRACKS EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. BY TAU 12, TC 25P SHOULD
BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES AND START
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). ETT SHOULD COMPLETE BY TAU 36 WITH
THE CYCLONE BECOMING A GALE FORCE, COLD CORE LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE
JTWC TRACK FORECAST.  MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS
45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.//

>

2020-04-08 02:29

WTPS31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 022
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 177.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 177.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 20.7S 178.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 23.0S 173.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 25.7S 168.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 28.8S 161.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 178.7E.
08APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 62
NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ONCE AGAIN, TC 25P HAS PROVEN ESPECIALLY
RESILIENT WITH A SMALL, CLOUD FILLED, PINHOLE EYE DEVELOPING WITHIN
THE PAST FEW HOURS INDICATIVE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON BOTH A
RADAR FIX FROM PGTW BASED ON THE FIJI COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP, AND A
PARTIAL 080006Z GMI 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A WELL DEFINED CYAN
RING, AT LEAST ON THE EASTERN HALF OF THE EYE CAPTURED BY THE
MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A SLIGHT HEDGE UPWARD FROM
THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115
KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF
T6.1 (118 KNOTS), AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 112 KNOTS.
THE HEDGE UPWARD TO 120 KNOTS IS BASED MOSTLY ON THE APPEARANCE OF A
CYAN RING AND STRUCTURE IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE OVERALL
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE THOUGH SIGNS ARE STARTING TO EMERGE
THAT THIS MAY BE CHANGING. VWS IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS),
SSTS REMAIN WARM (27-28 DEG CELSIUS) AND OUTFLOW IS STRONG
ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT
SOURCE THAT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED OVER TC 25P THROUGH THE PAST FEW
DAYS IS STARTING TO WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY MORE STRAIGHT WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT, WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE PRESSURE PRODUCED
BY THIS FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. COMBINED WITH A
RAPID MOVEMENT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS COOLER WATERS, AND STEADILY
INCREASING VWS, TC 25P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 12,
THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED STR CENTERED
FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 36, TC 25P WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BY TAU 48 WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO
THE STRONG WESTERLIES AND COMPLETE TRANSITION AS A STORM STRENGTH
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER, THOUGH
SPREAD IS ONLY 155 NM AT TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTEST GROUPING OF MODEL TRACKERS WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 45
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.//

>

2020-04-08 02:27

WTPS51 PGTW 080300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200408013256
2020040800 25P HAROLD     022  01 110 19 SATL RADR 010
T000 189S 1777E 120 R064 055 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 055 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T012 207S 1782W 115 R064 075 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 290 NE QD 160 SE QD 080 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 230S 1735W 100 R064 065 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 150 SE QD 080 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 257S 1680W 080 R064 055 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 288S 1617W 060 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
AMP
    036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 022
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 022
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   080000Z --- NEAR 18.9S 177.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 177.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 20.7S 178.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 290 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 23.0S 173.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 25.7S 168.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 28.8S 161.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 19.4S 178.7E.
08APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 62
NM SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 19
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT ONCE AGAIN, TC
25P HAS PROVEN ESPECIALLY RESILIENT WITH A SMALL, CLOUD FILLED, PINHOLE EYE DEVELOPING WITHIN THE
PAST FEW HOURS INDICATIVE OF ANOTHER ROUND OF INTENSIFICATION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
 HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON BOTH A RADAR FIX FROM PGTW BASED ON THE FIJI COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP, AND A
 PARTIAL 080006Z GMI 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH A WELL DEFINED CYAN RING, AT LEAST ON THE EASTERN
 HALF OF THE EYE CAPTURED BY THE MICROWAVE PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS A SLIGHT HEDGE UPWARD FR
OM THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO, AN AD
VACNED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T6.1 (118 KNOTS), AND A SATELLITE CONSESNUS ESTIMATE OF 112 KN
OTS. THE HEDGE UPWARD TO 120 KNOTS IS BASED MOSTLY ON THE APPEARANCE OF A CYAN RING AND STRUCTURE
IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE OVERALL ENVIRONEMNT REMAINS FAVORABLE THOUGH SIGNS ARE STARTING TO E
MERGE THAT THIS MAY BE CHANGING. VWS IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS), SSTS REMAIN WARM (27-28 DEG
 CELSIUS) AND OUTLOW IS STRONG ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT SO
URCE THAT HAS BEEN ENTRENCHED OVER TC 25P THROUGH THE PAST FEW DAYS IS STARTING TO WEAKEN AND BE R
EPLACED BY MORE STRAIGHT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, WITH WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING THE PRESSURE PRODUC
ED BY THIS FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. COMBINED WITH A RAPID MOVEMENT SOUTHEAST TOWARD
S COOLER WATERS, AND STEADILY INCREASING VWS, TC 25P IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH TAU 12,
THEN RAPIDLY WEAKEN THEREAFTER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAS
T TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED STR
CENTERED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST. BY TAU 36, TC 25P WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WEST
ERLIES AND BY TAU 48 WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG WESTERLIES AND COMPLETE TRANSITION AS A
STORM STRENGTH EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU
 24, WITH INCREASING SPREAD THEREAFTER, THOUGH SPREAD IS ONLY 155 NM AT TAU 48. THE JTWC FORECAST
IS PLACED ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TIGHTEST GROUPING OF MODEL TRACKERS WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
 MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z
 AND 090300Z.//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040706 171S1727E 110
2520040706 171S1727E 110
2520040706 171S1727E 110
2520040712 175S1742E 115
2520040712 175S1742E 115
2520040712 175S1742E 115
2520040718 183S1758E 110
2520040718 183S1758E 110
2520040718 183S1758E 110
2520040800 189S1777E 120
2520040800 189S1777E 120
2520040800 189S1777E 120

>

2020-04-07 20:23

WTPS51 PGTW 072100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200407194734
2020040718 25P HAROLD     021  01 120 17 SATL RADR 020
T000 183S 1758E 110 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 095 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 198S 1796E 105 R064 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 218S 1760W 100 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 242S 1708W 085 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 271S 1649W 070 R064 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 339S 1520W 045 R034 150 NE QD 210 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
    036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 021
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 021
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 175.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 175.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 19.8S 179.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 21.8S 176.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 24.2S 170.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 27.1S 164.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 33 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 33.9S 152.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 18.7S 176.8E.
07APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 149
NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPI
NG TIGHTLY ABOUT A CLOUD-COVERED AND OBSCURED LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFI
DENCE BASED ON A 1800Z RADAR ANALYSIS FIX FROM PGTW, BASED ON A WELL-DEFINED RADAR EYE IN THE NADI
, FIJI RADAR LOOP, SUPPORTED BY A 20 NM EYE IN AT 071654Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, WHICH ALSO
 SHOWS THAT THE EYEWALL IS WELL DEFINED AND COMPLETELY SURROUNDS THE CENTER. THE LOWER LEVELS ARE
NOT AS WELL DEFINED AS INDICATED BY TEH 37 GHZ BAND, BUT THE MICROWAVE EYE IS STILL EVIDENT. THE I
NITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE, AND IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
 THE AGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.5 FROM PGTW AND PHFO IN LIGHT OF AN ADVANCED DVORAK
TECHNIQUE RAW T# OF 6.4 (CI OF 5.4) AND A 071329Z AMSR2 WINDSPEED RETRIEVAL OF 119 KNOTS. THE ENVI
RONMENTAL REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, STRONG DIVERGENT POLEWARD AND EASTWARD OUTF
LOW AND WARM (27-28 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD TC 25P WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOU
THWEST PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED STR TO THE NORTHEAST, WHILE STEADILY ACCELERATING ALONG THE TIGHT
 GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STR AND AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TC 25P W
ILL WEAKEN STEADILY BUT SLOWLY AS VWS SLOWLY INCREASES AND SSTS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY COOL. HOWEVER,
OUTFLOW WILL REMAIN ROBUST, AND WILL TEND TO SLOW THE RATE OF WEAKENING. BEYOND TAU 24 HOWEVER, TH
E SYSTEM WILL BEGING TO INTERACT MORE WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND VWS WILL INCREASE MORE
RAPIDLY WHILE SSTS DECREASE, LEADING TO MORE RAPID WEAKENING BEYOND TAU 36. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM
WILL START EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AND IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE THIS TRANSITION TO A COLD CORE EXT
RATROPICAL SYSTEM BETWEEN TAU 48 AND TAU 72, IF NOT EARLIER. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG A
GREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY BOTH ALONG TRACK AND CROSS TRACK AFTER TAU 48
. THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TIGHEST GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE,
TRENDING MORE TOWARDS THE ECMWF SOLUTION. THERE IS OVERALL FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TR
ACK, PRIMARILY DUE TO THE INCREASED UNCERTAINTY BEYOND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
071800Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040706 171S1727E 110
2520040706 171S1727E 110
2520040706 171S1727E 110
2520040712 175S1742E 115
2520040712 175S1742E 115
2520040712 175S1742E 115
2520040718 183S1758E 110
2520040718 183S1758E 110
2520040718 183S1758E 110

>

2020-04-07 20:23

WTPS31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 020
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 174.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 174.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 18.7S 177.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 20.4S 178.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 22.5S 173.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 25.0S 167.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 34 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 31.8S 154.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 174.9E.
07APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
255 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING AND OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, POSSIBLY INDICATING AN EYE MAY BE
TRYING TO FORM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED IN THE CENTER OF THAT
DEEP CONVECTION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE 110 KT INITIAL INTENSITY
FALLS NEAR THE AVERAGE OF PGTW/PHFO DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.5-6.5 (102-127 KTS) WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. WITH LOW
(10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), THE ENVIRONMENT
IS SUPPORTIVE. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 25P WILL TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
THE ALONG TRACK SPEED WILL ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THROUGH TAU 24, THE INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 105-110 KTS, ALTHOUGH THE TC MAY GET STRONGER IF AN EYE WERE
TO FORM. AROUND TAU 36, HIGH VWS WILL BEGIN WEAKENING THE INTENSITY.
AT THAT TIME, INTERACTION WITH COOL SST AND THE MIDLATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. BETWEEN TAU
48 AND TAU 72, TC 25P WILL HAVE TRANSFORMED INTO A COLD CORE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD, SPREAD INCREASES PRIMARILY DUE
TO DIFFERENCES IN ALONG TRACK SPEED AND, FOR THAT REASON, THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z,
080900Z AND 081500Z.//

>

2020-04-07 14:28

WTPS51 PGTW 071500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200407130651
2020040712 25P HAROLD     020  01 105 14 SATL 020
T000 174S 1740E 110 R064 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 130 SE QD 105 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 187S 1775E 110 R064 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 135 NW QD
T024 204S 1784W 105 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 225S 1735W 095 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 250S 1679W 080 R064 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 318S 1547W 050 R050 040 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
AMP
    036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 020
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 020
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 174.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 174.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 18.7S 177.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 20.4S 178.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 22.5S 173.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 25.0S 167.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 34 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 31.8S 154.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 174.9E.
07APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS
TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEI
GHT AT 071200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040706 171S1726E 110
2520040706 171S1726E 110
2520040706 171S1726E 110
2520040712 174S1740E 110
2520040712 174S1740E 110
2520040712 174S1740E 110

>

2020-04-07 14:28

WTPS31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 020//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 020
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071200Z --- NEAR 17.4S 174.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.4S 174.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 18.7S 177.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 20.4S 178.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 22.5S 173.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 29 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 25.0S 167.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 34 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 31.8S 154.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 174.9E.
07APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
255 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING AND OBSCURING
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, POSSIBLY INDICATING AN EYE MAY BE
TRYING TO FORM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED IN THE CENTER OF THAT
DEEP CONVECTION WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE 110 KT INITIAL INTENSITY
FALLS NEAR THE AVERAGE OF PGTW/PHFO DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.5-6.5 (102-127 KTS) WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. WITH LOW
(10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST), THE ENVIRONMENT
IS SUPPORTIVE. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 25P WILL TRACK
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST
ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD,
THE ALONG TRACK SPEED WILL ACCELERATE AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. THROUGH TAU 24, THE INTENSITY SHOULD REMAIN
AROUND 105-110 KTS, ALTHOUGH THE TC MAY GET STRONGER IF AN EYE WERE
TO FORM. AROUND TAU 36, HIGH VWS WILL BEGIN WEAKENING THE INTENSITY.
AT THAT TIME, INTERACTION WITH COOL SST AND THE MIDLATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. BETWEEN TAU
48 AND TAU 72, TC 25P WILL HAVE TRANSFORMED INTO A COLD CORE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD, SPREAD INCREASES PRIMARILY DUE
TO DIFFERENCES IN ALONG TRACK SPEED AND, FOR THAT REASON, THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z,
080900Z AND 081500Z.//

>

2020-04-07 08:43

WTPS51 PGTW 070900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200407072626
2020040706 25P HAROLD     019  01 110 15 SATL 020
T000 171S 1726E 110 R064 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 135 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 185S 1759E 110 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T024 198S 1795E 110 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 218S 1760W 105 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 240S 1707W 090 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 298S 1586W 060 R050 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 110 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 130 NW QD
AMP
    036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 019
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 019
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 172.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 172.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.5S 175.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 19.8S 179.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 21.8S 176.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 24.0S 170.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 31 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 29.8S 158.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 173.4E.
07APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS
TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEI
GHT AT 070600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040618 164S1697E 135
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040700 166S1711E 115
2520040706 171S1726E 110
2520040706 171S1726E 110
2520040706 171S1726E 110

>

2020-04-07 08:42

WTPS31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 019
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070600Z --- NEAR 17.1S 172.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 17.1S 172.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.5S 175.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 19.8S 179.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 21.8S 176.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 24.0S 170.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 31 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 29.8S 158.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 17.4S 173.4E.
07APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
337 NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 070600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z
AND 080900Z.//

>

2020-04-07 02:10

WTPS31 PGTW 070300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 018
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 16.7S 171.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 171.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 17.6S 174.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 18.9S 177.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 20.8S 178.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 23.2S 173.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 29.0S 161.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 172.0E.
07APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421
NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 25P HAS REI
NTENSIFIED, OR AT LEAST ARRESTED THE WEAKENING TREND FOR A SHORT TIME, WITH THE REAPPEARANCE OF A
PINHOLE EYE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOISTENED SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, PARTICUL
ARLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR REGENERATION OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM. A 0056Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE SHOWED THE REDEVELOPMENT OF AN EYEWALL SURROUNDING THE SMALL
EYE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND RAGGED. THE I
NITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY, SU
PPORTED BY THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED GMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL IN
TENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T6.1 (117 KNOTS)
AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 114 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM REMA
INS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, WARM (28-29 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS, AND STRO
NG, DIVERGENT EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC 25P CONTINUES TRACKING ALONG THE SO
UTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
SOUTHEAST WHILE ACCELERATING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO R
EMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE CURRENTLY OVER THE SYST
EM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY SLOWLY, LEADING TO INCREASING SHEAR, RESULTING IN A SLOW WEAKENING TREN
D THROUGH TAU 24. THEREAFTER, VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY, WHILE OUTFLOW DECREASES, LEADIN
G TO MORE RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO INTERACT WITH THE DEEP WESTERLIES SOUTHEAST OF TONGA, AND WILL BEGIN TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROP
ICAL CYCLONE, COMPLETING THE TRANSITION BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT TH
ROUGH TAU 36. WHILE ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO, DISAGREEMENT IN THE SPEED AND
CURVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH BETWEEN MODELS INCREASES AFTER TAU 48 WITH A 270NM DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE
NAVGEM AND GFS OUTLIERS BY TAU 72. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 0
72100Z AND 080300Z.//

>

2020-04-07 02:06

WTPS51 PGTW 070300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200407011828
2020040700 25P HAROLD     018  01 100 15 SATL 030
T000 167S 1712E 115 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 135 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T012 176S 1743E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 189S 1778E 105 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 208S 1781W 095 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 232S 1732W 085 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 290S 1613W 055 R050 080 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
AMP
    048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 018
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 018
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   070000Z --- NEAR 16.7S 171.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.7S 171.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 17.6S 174.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 18.9S 177.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 20.8S 178.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 23.2S 173.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 30 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 29.0S 161.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9S 172.0E.
07APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 421
NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 25P HAS REI
NTENSIFIED, OR AT LEAST ARRESTED THE WEAKENING TREND FOR A SHORT TIME, WITH THE REAPPEARANCE OF A
PINHOLE EYE OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE SYSTEM HAS MOISTENED SINCE THE PREVIOUS WARNING, PARTICUL
ARLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE, WHICH HAS ALLOWED FOR REGENERATION OF CONVECTION AROUND THE CORE OF THE
SYSTEM. A 0056Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE SHOWED THE REDEVELOPMENT OF AN EYEWALL SURROUNDING THE SMALL
EYE, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE EASTERN SIDE WHICH IS STILL SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED AND RAGGED. THE I
NITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGERY, SU
PPORTED BY THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE PREVIOUSLY NOTED GMI MICROWAVE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL IN
TENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T5.5 (102-115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO, AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T6.1 (117 KNO
TS) AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 114 KNOTS. ENVRIONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM
REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VWS, WARM (28-29 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS, AND
STRONG, DIVERGENT EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC 25P CONTINUES TRACKING ALONG TH
E SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR LOCATED FAR TO THE NORTHEAST, AND WILL CONTINUE TO TR
ACK SOUTHEAST WHILE ACCELERATING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, THOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE CURRENTLY OVER THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE AWAY SLOWLY, LEADING TO INCREASING SHEAR, RESULTING IN A SLOW WEAKENING
TREND THROUGH TAU 24. THEREAFTER, VWS BEGINS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY, WHILE OUTFLOW DECREASES, LE
ADING TO MORE RAPID WEAKENING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BE
GIN TO INTERACT WITH THE DEEP WESTERLIES SOUTHEAST OF TONGA, AND WILL BEGIN TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA
TROPICAL CYCLONE, COMPLETING THE TRANSITION BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMEN
T THROUGH TAU 36. WHILE ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO, DISAGREEMENT IN THE SPEED
AND CURVE TOWARDS THE SOUTH BETWEEN MODELS INCRESAES AFTER TAU 48 WITH A 270NM DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
THE NAVGEM AND GFS OUTLIERS BY TAU 72. OVERALL THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC OFFICIAL FOREC
AST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500
Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040618 165S1697E 135
2520040618 165S1697E 135
2520040618 165S1697E 135
2520040700 167S1712E 115
2520040700 167S1712E 115
2520040700 167S1712E 115

>

2020-04-06 20:24

WTPS51 PGTW 062100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200406193848
2020040618 25P HAROLD     017  01 120 10 SATL 020
T000 165S 1697E 135 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 085 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 115 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 174S 1724E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T024 187S 1756E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 160 NW QD
T036 201S 1792E 115 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 221S 1763W 105 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 269S 1653W 085 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 180 NW QD
T096 336S 1527W 055 R050 090 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 270 SE QD 185 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
    072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 017
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 169.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 169.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 17.4S 172.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.7S 175.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 20.1S 179.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 22.1S 176.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 26.9S 165.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 33.6S 152.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 170.4E.
06APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 507
NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM, WITH THE EYE BECOMING MUCH SMALLER AND MORE RAGGED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 061706Z SSMIS PASS SHOWED THAT WHILE THE MICROWAVE EYE IS STILL WELL DEFINED IN THE UPPER LEVELS AS SHOWN IN THE 89 GHZ BAND, THE FEATURE HAS BECOME MUCH LESS DEFINED IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS SHOWN IN THE 37 GHZ BAND. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, EVEN ENTRAINING AROUND TO THE EASTERN SIDE AS WELL, AS SHOWN BY A BAND OF WEAK TO NO CONVECTION AND A WEAKENING OF THE EYEWALL ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SMALL EYE IN BOTH THE INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY NOTED ABOVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115-140 KTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO, WITH AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T7.1 (142 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 25P REMAINS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VWS, WARM (28-29 DEG C) SSTS AND ROBUST OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE ON TOP OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS STARTING TO MAKE AN IMPACT ON THE STORM, WRAPPING IN TOWARDS THE CORE AND WEAKENING CONVECTION. THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 25P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED STR LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN REPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TC 25P WILL STEADILY ACCELERATE TROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM ACCLERATES SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WHILE SSTS DECREASE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM, COMBINING TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 25P THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY, AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES 25-30 DEG LATITUDE, IT WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND BECOME FULLY EXTRATOPICAL BY TAU 96 AS IT RACES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48, WITH SOMEWHAT INCREASED DIVERGENCE THEREAFTER. ALL MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO, ONLY DISAGREEING ON THE AMOUNT OF SOUTHWARD TRACK COMPONENT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL, LEADING TO OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECSAT TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040618 165S1697E 135
2520040618 165S1697E 135
2520040618 165S1697E 135
NNNN

>

2020-04-06 20:22

WTPS31 PGTW 062100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 017
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061800Z --- NEAR 16.5S 169.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.5S 169.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 17.4S 172.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.7S 175.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 20.1S 179.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 23 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 22.1S 176.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 26.9S 165.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 32 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 33.6S 152.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
062100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7S 170.4E.
06APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 507
NM WEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM, WITH THE EYE BECOMING MUCH
SMALLER AND MORE RAGGED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 061706Z SSMIS
PASS SHOWED THAT WHILE THE MICROWAVE EYE IS STILL WELL DEFINED IN
THE UPPER LEVELS AS SHOWN IN THE 89 GHZ BAND, THE FEATURE HAS BECOME
MUCH LESS DEFINED IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS SHOWN IN THE 37 GHZ BAND.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM, EVEN ENTRAINING AROUND
TO THE EASTERN SIDE AS WELL, AS SHOWN BY A BAND OF WEAK TO NO
CONVECTION AND A WEAKENING OF THE EYEWALL ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF
THE CORE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE SMALL EYE IN BOTH THE INFRARED AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY NOTED
ABOVE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE, HEDGED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115-140 KTS) FROM PGTW AND PHFO, WITH AN ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T7.1 (142 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 25P REMAINS IN AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KT) VWS, WARM (28-29 DEG C) SSTS AND
ROBUST OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL POINT SOURCE ON TOP OF THE
SYSTEM. HOWEVER, DRY MID-LEVEL AIR IS STARTING TO MAKE AN IMPACT ON
THE STORM, WRAPPING IN TOWARDS THE CORE AND WEAKENING CONVECTION.
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 25P WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED STR
LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL GRADIENT TIGHTENS IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, TC 25P WILL
STEADILY ACCELERATE TROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATES SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WHILE SSTS
DECREASE AND DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ENTRAIN INTO THE SYSTEM, COMBINING
TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN TC 25P THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. ADDITIONALLY,
AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHES 25-30 DEG LATITUDE, IT WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE DEEP WESTERLY FLOW AND BECOME FULLY EXTRATROPICAL
BY TAU 96 AS IT RACES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A DEEP MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
THROUGH TAU 48, WITH SOMEWHAT INCREASED DIVERGENCE THEREAFTER. ALL
MODELS AGREE ON THE GENERAL TRACK SCENARIO, ONLY DISAGREEING ON THE
AMOUNT OF SOUTHWARD TRACK COMPONENT AS THE SYSTEM BECOMES
EXTRATROPICAL, LEADING TO OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 45
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z, 070900Z, 071500Z AND 072100Z.//

>

2020-04-06 15:03

WTPS51 PGTW 061500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200406140007
2020040612 25P HAROLD     016  01 100 10 SATL 020
T000 160S 1688E 145 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 085 SE QD 110 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 167S 1711E 140 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 178S 1741E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 192S 1773E 120 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 160 NW QD
T048 208S 1788W 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 170 NW QD
T072 251S 1686W 090 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 318S 1551W 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
    072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 016
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 168.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 168.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 16.7S 171.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 17.8S 174.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 19.2S 177.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 20.8S 178.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 25.1S 168.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 34 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 31.8S 155.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 169.4E.
06APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 106
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145
2520040612 160S1688E 145

>

2020-04-06 14:21

WTPS31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 016
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 16.0S 168.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.0S 168.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 16.7S 171.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 17.8S 174.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 19.2S 177.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 20.8S 178.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 25.1S 168.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 34 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 31.8S 155.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 16.2S 169.4E.
06APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 106
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS TC 25P HAS MAINTAINED A WELL DEFINED 10NM EYE WITH ASYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS SHIFTED TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T7.0 (140 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND A 061210Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF 152 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY WARM (29-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 25P WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE SOUTWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST, WILL GRADUALLY BE TEMPERED BY INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 48 WHICH WILL WEAKEN THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 72, TC HAROLD WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION AS TRACK SPEED RAPIDLY INCERASES, BECOMING FULLY EXTRATROPICAL BY TAU 96. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, BECOMING MORE CONCLUSIVE AS VWS BECOMES MORE PREDOMINATE. NUMERICAL TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 50 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-04-06 08:50

WTPS51 PGTW 060900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200406082252
2020040606 25P HAROLD     015  01 105 11 SATL 020
T000 158S 1678E 135 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 125 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 164S 1698E 130 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 173S 1724E 125 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 186S 1755E 115 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 200S 1790E 105 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T072 217S 1768W 085 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 292S 1599W 060 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
    072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 015
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 015
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060600Z --- NEAR 15.8S 167.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 167.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.4S 169.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 17.3S 172.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.6S 175.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 20.0S 179.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 21.7S 176.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 42 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 29.2S 159.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9S 168.3E.
06APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 118
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
2520040606 158S1678E 135
NNNN

>

2020-04-06 08:50

WTPS31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 166.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 166.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 16.0S 168.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 16.8S 170.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 17.9S 173.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 19.2S 176.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 22.5S 175.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 27.0S 163.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 167.1E.
06APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
161 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MADE
LANDFALL OVER VANUATU JUST SOUTH OF ELIA. THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS VERY INTENSE AS IT MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DEEP OVERCAST AND A WELL-DEFINED 15NM EYE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE
FEATURE, WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR A FORWARD SLANT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0/115KTS FROM PGTW
AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT WEAKENING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
LOW (10-15KT)VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND
VERY WARM SST (30C). TC 25P HAS BEGUN TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST ASSUMED STEERING. INCREASING VWS,
TEMPERED BY THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST, WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 60KTS BY TAU 96. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 48, TC
HAROLD WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING SUBTROPICAL BY TAU
96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z,
062100Z AND 070300Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-04-06 02:22

WTPS51 PGTW 060300 RRA
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200406012059
2020040600 25P HAROLD     014  01 110 06 SATL 020
T000 155S 1667E 115 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050
    045 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD
    095 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 160S 1682E 110 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050
    050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD
    100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 168S 1705E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
    060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD
    100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 179S 1733E 105 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
    080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 120 SE QD
    100 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 192S 1766E 105 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050
    080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 130 SE QD
    110 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 225S 1751W 090 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050
    080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD
    110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 270S 1636W 060 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034
    150 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
    048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 166.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

>

2020-04-06 02:21

WTPS31 PGTW 060300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 166.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 166.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 16.0S 168.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-04-06 02:02

WTPS51 PGTW 060300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200406012059
2020040600 25P HAROLD     014  01 110 06 SATL 020
T000 155S 1667E 115 R064 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 130 SE QD 095 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 160S 1682E 110 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 168S 1705E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 179S 1733E 105 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 192S 1766E 105 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 225S 1751W 090 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 270S 1636W 060 R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 120 NW QD
AMP
    048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 166.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 166.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 16.0S 168.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 16.8S 170.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 17.9S 173.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 19.2S 176.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 22.5S 175.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 27.0S 163.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 167.1E.
06APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 161
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115
2520040600 155S1667E 115

>

2020-04-06 02:02

WTPS31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   060000Z --- NEAR 15.5S 166.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5S 166.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 16.0S 168.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 16.8S 170.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 17.9S 173.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 19.2S 176.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 22.5S 175.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 28 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 27.0S 163.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 167.1E.
06APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
161 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MADE
LANDFALL OVER VANUATU JUST SOUTH OF ELIA. THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY BUT REMAINS VERY INTENSE AS IT MAINTAINED A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DEEP OVERCAST AND A WELL-DE
FINED 15NM EYE IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE E
YE
FEATURE, WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENT FOR A FORWARD SLANT. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0/115KTS FROM PGTW
AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT WEAKENING. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
LOW (10-15KT)VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND
VERY WARM SST (30C). TC 25P HAS BEGUN TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD AS THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST ASSUMED STEERING. INCREASING VWS,
TEMPERED BY THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST, WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 60KTS BY TAU 96. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 48, TC
HAROLD WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING SUBTROPICAL BY TAU
96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z,
062100Z AND 070300Z.//

>

2020-04-05 20:46

WTPS51 PGTW 052100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200405195430
2020040518 25P HAROLD     013  01 060 06 SATL 020
T000 153S 1661E 125 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD
T012 155S 1672E 115 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 162S 1691E 110 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW QD 065 NW QD
T036 172S 1716E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD
T048 185S 1748E 100 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 213S 1779W 080 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 252S 1680W 060 R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 130 NW QD
AMP
    048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 166.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 166.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 15.5S 167.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.2S 169.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 17.2S 171.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.5S 174.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 21.3S 177.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 25.2S 168.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 166.4E.
05APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125
2520040518 153S1661E 125

>

2020-04-05 20:43

WTPS31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 15.3S 166.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3S 166.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 15.5S 167.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.2S 169.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 17.2S 171.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.5S 174.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 21.3S 177.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 25 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 25.2S 168.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 15.3S 166.4E.
05APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
192 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS LINGERED AND JOGGED
SLIGHTLY EASTWARD AS IT REGAINED A SYMMETRIC CENTRAL DEEP OVERCAST
AND A 16NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE EYE IN THE IR THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN
THE 1719Z SSMIS COLORIZED 37GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED
ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.5/127KTS FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE
REINTENSIFICATION.   ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW
(10-15KT)VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND VERY
WARM SST (30C). TC 25P HAS TRACKED EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND ASSUME STEERING FROM HERE ONWARD.
INCREASING VWS, TEMPERED BY THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SST, WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE CYCLONE DOWN TO 60KTS BY TAU 96. CONCURRENTLY,
BY TAU 48, TC HAROLD WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING
SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT,
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL STORM MOTION FOLLOWING
A TRANSITION IN THE STEERING MECHANISM, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE INITIAL PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 45 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z,
061500Z AND 062100Z.//

>

2020-04-05 14:20

WTPS51 PGTW 051500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200405133756
2020040512 25P HAROLD     012  01 090 01 SATL 025
T000 156S 1656E 120 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 075 SE QD 085 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 157S 1663E 115 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 161S 1678E 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 169S 1699E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 180S 1726E 110 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 201S 1782E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 232S 1735W 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
    072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 165.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 165.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 15.7S 166.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 16.1S 167.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 16.9S 169.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 18.0S 172.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 20.1S 178.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 23.2S 173.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 165.8E.
05APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
2520040512 156S1656E 120
NNNN

>

2020-04-05 14:11

WTPS31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 15.6S 165.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 165.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 15.7S 166.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 16.1S 167.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 16.9S 169.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 18.0S 172.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 20.1S 178.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 23.2S 173.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 165.8E.
05APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WOBBLY, YET TIGHTLY WRAPPED EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE 10NM EYE SEEN IN EIR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PHFO, A T6.5 (127 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND A 051240Z ADT ESTIMATE OF 130 KNOTS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL FAIR AGREEMENT. CURRENTLY, THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE WITH STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM SSTS (29C) AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. INCREASING VWS, SUBSIDENCE, AND LATER ON, COOLING SSTS, TEMPERED BY THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 96. BY TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH CROSS TRACK SPREAD INCREASING TO 300NM BY TAU 96, LENDING OVERALL HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-04-05 09:21

WTPS51 PGTW 050900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200405091120
2020040506 25P HAROLD     011  01 205 02 SATL 020
T000 156S 1655E 105 R064 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 158S 1659E 115 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 161S 1670E 115 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD
T036 166S 1688E 110 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 176S 1712E 105 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 202S 1774E 095 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 239S 1740W 075 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 287S 1634W 060 R050 080 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 130 NW QD
AMP
    096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 165.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 165.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 15.8S 165.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 16.1S 167.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.6S 168.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 17.6S 171.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 20.2S 177.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 23.9S 174.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 28.7S 163.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 165.6E.
05APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 204
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040418 150S1655E 110
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040500 154S1656E 100
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105
2520040506 156S1655E 105

>

2020-04-05 09:21

WTPS31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050600Z --- NEAR 15.6S 165.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.6S 165.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 15.8S 165.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 16.1S 167.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.6S 168.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 17.6S 171.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 20.2S 177.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 22 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 23.9S 174.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   100600Z --- 28.7S 163.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 15.6S 165.6E.
05APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
204NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EYE HAS REFORMED AS UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW REMAINS STRONG. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE 10NM
EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102KTS) FROM PGTW AND NFFN AND THE
050626Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 110 KNOTS. THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS
CONDUCIVE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION AS WARM SSTS (29C) AND LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) PREVAIL. TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS
CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. INCREASING VWS, SUBSIDENCE, AND
LATER ON, COOLING SSTS, TEMPERED BY THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 60KTS BY TAU 120. BY TAU 96, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING SUBTROPICAL BY
TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 35
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//

>

2020-04-05 02:01

WTPS51 PGTW 050300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200405011032
2020040500 25P HAROLD     010  01 140 06 SATL 025
T000 154S 1659E 105 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 110 SE QD 095 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 157S 1663E 105 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 159S 1670E 105 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 165S 1685E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 173S 1708E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 197S 1768E 090 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 234S 1749W 080 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 282S 1639W 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 160 NW QD
AMP
    096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z --- NEAR 15.4S 165.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 165.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 15.7S 166.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 15.9S 167.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 16.5S 168.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 17.3S 170.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 19.7S 176.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 23.4S 174.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 28.2S 163.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 166.0E.
05APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 195
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040418 149S1655E 115
2520040418 149S1655E 115
2520040418 149S1655E 115
2520040500 154S1659E 105
2520040500 154S1659E 105
2520040500 154S1659E 105

>

2020-04-05 02:01

WTPS31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z --- NEAR 15.4S 165.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.4S 165.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 15.7S 166.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 15.9S 167.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 16.5S 168.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 17.3S 170.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 19.7S 176.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 23.4S 174.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 27 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 28.2S 163.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5S 166.0E.
05APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
195 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTIVE TOP HAVE BEGUN TO WARM, AN
INDICATION OF WEAKENING. HOWEVER, A ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS.
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON A RAGGED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE
041858Z SSMIS  COLORIZED 37GHZ IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T5.5/102KTS FROM
PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM SSTS (29C) THAT IS OFFSET BY SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING (20KTS+)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS). TC 25P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS
CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. INCREASING VWS, SUBSIDENCE, AND
LATER ON, COOLING SSTS, TEMPERED BY THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 60KTS BY TAU 120. CONCURRENTLY,
BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION, BECOMING
SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE
TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.//

>

2020-04-04 20:16

WTPS51 PGTW 042100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200404185246
2020040418 25P HAROLD     009  01 130 05 SATL 020
T000 149S 1655E 115 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 045 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 152S 1658E 115 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 155S 1662E 110 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 158S 1672E 110 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 164S 1691E 105 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 185S 1746E 095 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 219S 1778W 085 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 264S 1673W 065 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD
AMP
    096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 165.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 165.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 15.2S 165.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 15.5S 166.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 15.8S 167.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.4S 169.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.5S 174.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 21.9S 177.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 26.4S 167.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 165.6E.
04APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 233
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040418 149S1655E 115
2520040418 149S1655E 115
2520040418 149S1655E 115

>

2020-04-04 20:14

WTPS31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 165.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 165.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 15.2S 165.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 15.5S 166.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 15.8S 167.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.4S 169.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.5S 174.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 20 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 21.9S 177.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 26 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 26.4S 167.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 165.6E.
04APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
233 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL
CONVECTION AND ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS SUPPRESSED
SOME OF THE CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 041438Z GCOMW1 COLORIZED 36GHZ
IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE
DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T6.0/115KTS FROM PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
INDICATES STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM SSTS (29C) THAT IS OFFSET
BY SUBSIDENCE AND INCREASING (20KTS+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR(VWS). TC
25P IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON ITS CURRENT TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC
HAROLD HAS PEAKED INTENSITY. INCREASING VWS, SUBSIDENCE, AND LATER
ON, COOLING SSTS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM DOWN TO 65KTS BY
TAU 120. CONCURRENTLY, BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION, BECOMING SUBTROPICAL BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MINOR SPREADING LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST THAT IS LAID CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-04-04 13:51

WTPS51 PGTW 041500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200404132307
2020040412 25P HAROLD     008  01 135 04 SATL 040
T000 146S 1651E 115 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 115 SE QD 110 SW QD 075 NW QD
T012 150S 1654E 120 R064 000 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 154S 1657E 120 R064 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 156S 1661E 115 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 159S 1674E 110 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 176S 1727E 100 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 208S 1799E 090 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 247S 1718W 075 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
    096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 14.6S 165.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 165.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 15.0S 165.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 15.4S 165.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 15.6S 166.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 15.9S 167.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 17.6S 172.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 20.8S 179.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 24.7S 171.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 165.2E.
04APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.
//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
2520040412 146S1651E 115
NNNN

>

2020-04-04 13:42

WTPS31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   041200Z --- NEAR 14.6S 165.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 165.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 15.0S 165.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 15.4S 165.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 15.6S 166.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 15.9S 167.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 17.6S 172.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 20.8S 179.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 24.7S 171.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 165.2E.
04APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS BEEN SUBSUMED INTO A LARGE
MASS OF CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE AMBIGUITIES FROM A 041014Z
METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS,
IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115
KTS) FROM PGTW, PHFO, AND THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 25P LIES IN A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH VERY ROBUST DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, WARM (29-
30 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS, AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), WITH A RELATIVE SHEAR VALUE MUCH LOWER DUE TO STORM
MOTION AND SHEAR VECTORS BEING IN PHASE. WIND RADII HAVE BEEN
ADJUSTED BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. TC 25P IS TRACKING
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE EAST. AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
WILL BUILD IN TO THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 25P OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS,
WHICH WILL IN TURN LEAD TO VERY SLOW, NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT. BEYOND TAU 36, THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTENSION
OF THE STR WEAKENS, ALLOWING TC 25P TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO
SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY FURTHER TO 120 KTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT
TAPS INTO HIGHLY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHILE REMAINING IN A
RELATIVELY LOW VWS ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT
IN A REGION OF MIDDLING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) WATER AND SOME DRY
AIR INGESTION THAT IS EVIDENT IN THE EIR LOOP AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER ANIMATION WILL COMPETE WITH THE ROBUST OUTFLOW TO LIMIT MUCH
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND BEGIN A WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 24.
AFTER TAU 48, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FURTHER DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM
EXPERIENCES INCREASING VWS, CONVERGENCE ALOFT, AND DECREASING SSTS.
BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALL
AGREE ON THE GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND SLOW FORWARD MOTION
THROUGH TAU 48, BUT DIFFER ON THE DEGREE, WITH SOME MODELS
INDICATING A MOVEMENT DUE SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST AT ONE OR TWO
KNOTS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST, WHILE OTHERS MOVE STRAIGHT SOUTHEAST
AT THREE TO FOUR KNOTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BEYOND TAU 48, MODELS
COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE TRACK AND FORWARD
MOTION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DRIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE
ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO THE OVERALL HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THE GENERAL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//

>

2020-04-04 09:07

WTPS51 PGTW 040900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200404083825
2020040406 25P HAROLD     007  01 125 07 SATL 020
T000 143S 1648E 110 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 035 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 149S 1652E 120 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 153S 1654E 120 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 154S 1657E 115 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 155S 1664E 110 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 166S 1708E 100 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 200S 1778E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 231S 1754W 075 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD
AMP
    096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 164.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 164.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 14.9S 165.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 15.3S 165.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 15.4S 165.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 15.5S 166.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 16.6S 170.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 20.0S 177.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 23.1S 175.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 164.9E.
04APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040400 139S1642E  90
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110
2520040406 143S1648E 110

>

2020-04-04 08:54

WTPS31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040600Z --- NEAR 14.3S 164.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 164.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 14.9S 165.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 15.3S 165.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 15.4S 165.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 15.5S 166.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 16.6S 170.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 20.0S 177.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 18 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   090600Z --- 23.1S 175.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 14.4S 164.9E.
04APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 287
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS AN INTENSE SYSTEM WITH DEEPENING CONVECTION AND VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A PINHOLE EYE THAT IS FILLING WITH
CLOUDS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE EYE
IN MSI IMAGERY AND SUPPORTED BY A 040620Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS, HEDGED SLIGHTLY UNDER
PHFO AND PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115
KTS) BUT IN LINE WITH THE ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE CI OF T5.8 (110
KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 25P LIES IN A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH VERY ROBUST DIVERGENT OUTFLOW, WARM (29-
30 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), WITH A RELATIVE SHEAR VALUE MUCH LOWER DUE TO STORM
MOTION AND SHEAR VECTORS BEING IN PHASE. TC 25P IS TRACKING SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE
TO THE EAST. AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF TC 25P OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WHICH WILL IN TURN
LEAD TO VERY SLOW, NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVEMENT. BEYOND TAU 48, THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTENSION OF THE STR
WEAKENS, ALLOWING TC 25P TO ACCELERATE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY
FURTHER TO 120 KTS IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS IT TAPS INTO HIGHLY
DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHILE REMAINING IN A RELATIVELY LOW VWS
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT IN A REGION OF
MIDDLING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) WATER WILL COMPETE WITH THE ROBUST
OUTFLOW TO LIMIT MUCH FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND BEGIN A WEAKENING
TREND AFTER TAU 24. AFTER TAU 48, THE ENVIRONMENT WILL FURTHER
DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE
ALOFT, AND DECREASING SSTS. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE ON THE GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK AND SLOW FORWARD MOTION THROUGH TAU 48, BUT DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE, WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A MOVEMENT DUE SOUTH OR EVEN
SOUTHWEST AT ONE OR TWO KNOTS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST, WHILE OTHERS
MOVE STRAIGHT SOUTHEAST AT THREE TO FOUR KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST. BEYOND TAU 48, MODELS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
BOTH THE TRACK AND FORWARD MOTION. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DRIFTS
SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD BEFORE ACCELERATING SOUTHEASTWARD AFTER TAU 72.
DUE TO THE OVERALL HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 48
HOURS AND THE GENERAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE
IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z,
050300Z AND 050900Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-04-04 02:44

WTPS51 PGTW 040300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200404015740
2020040400 25P HAROLD     006  01 155 04 SATL 015
T000 139S 1640E 090 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 145S 1645E 105 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 152S 1648E 115 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 157S 1650E 120 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 158S 1657E 120 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 162S 1685E 105 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T096 180S 1741E 095 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 211S 1796W 075 R064 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
    096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 164.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 164.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 14.5S 164.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 15.2S 164.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 15.7S 165.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 15.8S 165.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 16.2S 168.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 18.0S 174.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 21.1S 179.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 164.1E.
04APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIR
MS THAT TC HAROLD IS UNDERGOING A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH
 VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WRAPPING INTO A PINHOLE EYE, WHICH HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. TH
ERE HAS BEEN NO GOOD MICROWAVE PASS SINCE 031911Z, BUT THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CO
NFIDENCE BASED ON THE PINHOLE EYE FEATURE IN THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED BANDS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
 IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS USING A COMBINATION OF AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0
(90 KNOTS) FROM ALL AGENCIES (PGTW/PHFO/NFFN), AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T4.8.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 25P LIES IN A HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH VERY ROB
UST DIRVERGENT OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS, WITH
A RELATIVE SHEAR VALUE MUCH LOWER DUE TO STORM MOTION AND SHEAR VECTORS BEING IN PHASE. TC 25P HAS
 SLOWED SIGNFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSION OF THE STR NO
SING SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EFFECTIVELY LIMITING EASTEWARD MOVEMENT OF TC 25P. T
HIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WHICH WILL IN TURN LEAD TO
VERY SLOW, NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TC 25P. BEYOND TAU 48 T
HE AFOREMENTIONED EXTENSION OF THE STR WEAKENS AND THE STR ITSELF REORIENTS TO A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEA
ST ORIENTATION, ALLOWING TC 25P TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIO
D. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 AS IT TAPS INTO HIGHLY
DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW WHILE REMAINING IN A RELATIVELY LOW VWS ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM WATE
RS. AFTER PEAKING OUT AT 120 KNOTS BY TAU 48 THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SLOWLY DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM
 EXPERIENCES INCREASING VWS AND CONVERGENCE ALOFT, AND DECREASING SSTS. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL
 BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION. NUMERICAL GUIDAN
CE ALL AGREE ON THE GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AND SLOW FORWARD MOTION THROUGH TAU 48, BUT DIFFER
 ON THE DEGREE, WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A MOVEMENT DUE SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST AT ONE OR TWO K
NOTS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST, WHILE OTHERS MOVE STRAIGHT SOUTHEAST AT THREE TO FOUR KNOTS THROUGH
 THE ENTIRE FORECAST. BEYOND TAU 48, MODELS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON BOTH THE TRACK AND
FORWARD MOTION. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 AT ABOUT THREE KN
OTS, BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST AND ACCELERATING AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO THE OVERALL HIGH UNCERTAINTY I
N THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THE GENERAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THER
E IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 28 F
EET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040400 139S1640E  90
2520040400 139S1640E  90
2520040400 139S1640E  90

>

2020-04-04 02:43

WTPS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z --- NEAR 13.9S 164.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.9S 164.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 14.5S 164.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 15.2S 164.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 15.7S 165.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 15.8S 165.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 100 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 16.2S 168.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 18.0S 174.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 21.1S 179.6W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 14.1S 164.1E.
04APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY CONFIRMS THAT TC HAROLD IS UNDERGOING
A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WITH
VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS WRAPPING INTO A PINHOLE EYE, WHICH HAS DEVELOPED
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO GOOD MICROWAVE PASS SINCE
031911Z, BUT THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE PINHOLE EYE FEATURE IN THE VISIBLE AND INFRARED BANDS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS USING A COMBINATION OF
AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM ALL
AGENCIES (PGTW/PHFO/NFFN), AND AN ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE
OF T4.8. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 25P LIES IN A HIGHLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT, WITH VERY ROBUST DIRVERGENT OUTFLOW, WARM (29-
30 DEG CELSIUS) SSTS AND LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS, WITH A
RELATIVE SHEAR VALUE MUCH LOWER DUE TO STORM MOTION AND SHEAR VECTORS
BEING IN PHASE. TC 25P HAS SLOWED SIGNFICANTLY OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS, DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTENSION OF THE STR NOSING
SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM, EFFECTIVELY LIMITING
EASTEWARD MOVEMENT OF TC 25P. THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO FURTHER
STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS, WHICH WILL IN TURN LEAD TO VERY
SLOW, NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
TC 25P. BEYOND TAU 48 THE AFOREMENTIONED EXTENSION OF THE STR WEAKENS
AND THE STR ITSELF REORIENTS TO A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION,
ALLOWING TC 25P TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWEASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TC 25P IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 24-36 AS IT TAPS INTO HIGHLY DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WHILE REMAINING IN A RELATIVELY LOW VWS ENVIRONMENT OVER VERY WARM
WATERS. AFTER PEAKING OUT AT 120 KNOTS BY TAU 48 THE ENVIRONMENT WILL
SLOWLY DETERIORATE AS THE SYSTEM EXPERIENCES INCREASING VWS AND
CONVERGENCE ALOFT, AND DECREASING SSTS. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND BEGIN SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ALL AGREE ON THE GENERAL SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK AND SLOW FORWARD MOTION THROUGH TAU 48, BUT DIFFER ON THE
DEGREE, WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING A MOVEMENT DUE SOUTH OR EVEN
SOUTHWEST AT ONE OR TWO KNOTS BEFORE TURNING SOUTHEAST, WHILE OTHERS
MOVE STRAIGHT SOUTHEAST AT THREE TO FOUR KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST. BEYOND TAU 48, MODELS COME INTO MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT ON
BOTH THE TRACK AND FORWARD MOTION. THE JTWC FORECAST FAVORS THE MORE
SOUTHWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 AT ABOUT THREE KNOTS, BEFORE TURNING
SOUTHEAST AND ACCELERATING AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO THE OVERALL HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE GUIDANCE IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS AND THE GENERAL
UNCERTAINTY IN THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//

>

2020-04-03 20:11

WTPS51 PGTW 032100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200403191242
2020040318 25P HAROLD     005  01 135 11 SATL 060
T000 135S 1638E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T012 143S 1648E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 150S 1654E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 155S 1658E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 158S 1664E 095 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 080 NW QD
T072 167S 1689E 100 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 182S 1732E 085 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 208S 1791E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
    096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z --- NEAR 13.5S 163.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 163.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 14.3S 164.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 15.0S 165.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 15.5S 165.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 15.8S 166.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.7S 168.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.2S 173.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 20.8S 179.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 164.1E.
03APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 25P C
ONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE AND STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE OPEN WATERS BETWEE
N THE SOLOMON ISLANDS AND VANUATU. A 031743Z SSMIS 91 GHZ COLORPCT MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WELL DE
FINED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE I
N THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SU
BJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND T4.0 FROM PHFO, SUPPORTED BY AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE OF T4.6. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT TC 25P LIES IN A FAVORABL
E ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE PROVIDING ROBUST OUTFL
OW, HIGH SSTS OF 29-30 DEG CELSIUS AND LOW-MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VWS, THOUGH THE RELATIVE VWS IS
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AS STORM  MOTION IS IN PHASE WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR. THROUGH TAU 24, TC 25P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYER STR LOCATED TO THE EA
ST. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS A WEAK STEE
RING PATTERN, AS THE STR TO THE EAST RIDGES STRONGLY SOUTHWESTWARD AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS FURTHER
MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD. AFTER TAU 48 AND THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAS
T PERIOD, THIS RIDGE WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYER TROUGH, WHILE A NEW NORTHWEST-SOUT
HEAST ORIENTED STR DEVELOPS NEAR SAMOA, ALLOWING TC 25P TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWEASTWARDS. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW V
WS, REACHING A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS BY TAU 72. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS, CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND COOL
ER SSTS WILL COMBINE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING
UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL SPREAD INCREASING, PARTICULARLY IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST DUE T
O THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE NEAR-TERM STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 48, THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
 MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE NEAR
-TERM UNCERTAINTY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z
, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040318 135S1638E  60
2520040318 135S1638E  60

>

2020-04-03 20:11

WTPS31 PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031800Z --- NEAR 13.5S 163.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 13.5S 163.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 14.3S 164.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 15.0S 165.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 15.5S 165.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 15.8S 166.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.7S 168.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 18.2S 173.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 20.8S 179.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 13.7S 164.1E.
03APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 362
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TC 25P CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATE
AND STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE OPEN WATERS BETWEEN
THE SOLOMON ISLANDS AND VANUATU. A 031743Z SSMIS 91 GHZ COLORPCT
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS WELL DEFINED CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO
A DEVELOPING MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED WITH MODERATE
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM PGTW AND T4.0 FROM PHFO, SUPPORTED BY AN
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE OF T4.6. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THAT TC 25P LIES IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION, WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE PROVIDING ROBUST
OUTFLOW, HIGH SSTS OF 29-30 DEG CELSIUS AND LOW-MODERATE (15-20
KNOTS) VWS, THOUGH THE RELATIVE VWS IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER AS STORM
MOTION IS IN PHASE WITH THE SHEAR VECTOR. THROUGH TAU 24, TC 25P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYER STR LOCATED TO THE EAST. BETWEEN TAU 24 AND 48, THE
SYSTEM WILL BECOME NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT ENTERS A WEAK
STEERING PATTERN, AS THE STR TO THE EAST RIDGES STRONGLY
SOUTHWESTWARD AND EFFECTIVELY BLOCKS FURTHER MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST FOR A SHORT PERIOD. AFTER TAU 48 AND THROUGH THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD, THIS RIDGE WEAKENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DEEP
LAYER TROUGH, WHILE A NEW NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED STR DEVELOPS
NEAR SAMOA, ALLOWING TC 25P TO ACCELERATE SOUTHWEASTWARDS. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
ROBUST UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS, REACHING A PEAK OF 100 KNOTS
BY TAU 72. THEREAFTER, INCREASING VWS, CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND COOLER
SSTS WILL COMBINE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING UNCERTAINTY WITH MODEL SPREAD
INCREASING, PARTICULARLY IN THE FIRST 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST DUE
TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE NEAR-TERM STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AFTER
TAU 48, THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT HOWEVER,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE NEAR-
TERM UNCERTAINTY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-04-03 14:41

WTPS51 PGTW 031500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200403140418
2020040312 25P HAROLD     004  01 155 13 SATL 030
T000 127S 1630E 055 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 070 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 095 NW QD
T012 139S 1639E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 035 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 148S 1647E 075 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T036 155S 1650E 085 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 140 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T048 159S 1655E 090 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 166S 1675E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 179S 1713E 065 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD
T120 198S 1764E 060 R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 140 NW QD
AMP
    096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z --- NEAR 12.7S 163.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 163.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 13.9S 163.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 14.8S 164.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 15.5S 165.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 15.9S 165.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 16.6S 167.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 17.9S 171.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 19.8S 176.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 163.2E.
03APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 429
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 115S1624E  45
2520040312 127S1630E  55
2520040312 127S1630E  55

>

2020-04-03 14:40

WTPS31 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   031200Z --- NEAR 12.7S 163.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 163.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 13.9S 163.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 14.8S 164.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 15.5S 165.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 15.9S 165.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 16.6S 167.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 17.9S 171.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 19.8S 176.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
031500Z POSITION NEAR 13.0S 163.2E.
03APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
429 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 25P IS CONSOLIDATING
RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. A 031034Z MHS
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, WHICH SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND WARM SST VALUES (30C). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55
KNOTS BASED ON PGTW/KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55
KNOTS). THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER
PERSISTENT VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH SOME
POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PEAK
AT 90 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE
EAST. BY TAU 48, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A
DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
THE STR TEMPORARILY BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS WILL LEAD TO A SHORT
PERIOD OF SLOW, POSSIBLY QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK MOTION THROUGH TAU
60. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES DURING THIS PERIOD WITH
INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU 72, UPPER-
LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD TROUGH ARE
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER TC 25P, WHICH WILL SERVE TO ACCELERATE
THE SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO
CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE BAROCLINICITY AS INDICATED IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032100Z, 040300Z, 040900Z AND 041500Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-04-03 09:04

WTPS51 PGTW 030900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200403082238
2020040306 25P HAROLD     003  01 120 15 SATL 050
T000 114S 1626E 040 R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 130S 1642E 050 R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD
T024 140S 1648E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 148S 1653E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 153S 1657E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 158S 1669E 070 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD
T096 170S 1705E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T120 185S 1747E 060 R050 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 150 NW QD
AMP
    096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z --- NEAR 11.4S 162.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 162.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 13.0S 164.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 14.0S 164.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 14.8S 165.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 15.3S 165.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 15.8S 166.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 17.0S 170.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 18.5S 174.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 163.0E.
03APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 502
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 106S1613E  40
2520040306 114S1626E  40
NNNN

>

2020-04-03 09:04

WTPS31 PGTW 030900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 003
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030600Z --- NEAR 11.4S 162.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.4S 162.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 13.0S 164.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 14.0S 164.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 14.8S 165.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050600Z --- 15.3S 165.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 15.8S 166.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 17.0S 170.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 18.5S 174.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030900Z POSITION NEAR 11.8S 163.0E.
03APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
502 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 25P IS BEGINNING TO
CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS AWAY FROM THE SOLOMON ISLANDS. A 030801Z
SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A
VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES (30C). THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5 TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). HOWEVER, THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A HIGHER-THAN-CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
THROUGH TAU 48 UNDER PERSISTENT VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO PEAK AT 80 KNOTS BY TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) POSITIONED TO THE EAST. BY TAU 48, THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND THE STR TEMPORARILY BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. THIS
WILL LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF SLOW, POSSIBLY QUASI-STATIONARY TRACK
MOTION THROUGH TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK. AFTER TAU
72, UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BROAD
TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER TC 25P, WHICH WILL SERVE TO
ACCELERATE THE SYSTEM EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH STEADY WEAKENING DUE
TO CONVERGENCE ALOFT AND MODERATE BAROCLINICITY AS INDICATED IN THE
850MB TEMPERATURE FIELDS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING PATTERN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031500Z, 032100Z, 040300Z AND 040900Z.//

>

2020-04-03 03:02

WTPS51 PGTW 030300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200403024333
2020040300 25P HAROLD     002  01 105 21 SATL 040
T000 104S 1616E 040 R034 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD
T012 121S 1636E 050 R050 040 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T024 137S 1650E 065 R064 005 NE QD 005 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD
T036 147S 1657E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
T048 153S 1661E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 160S 1670E 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 167S 1699E 085 R064 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD
T120 180S 1738E 075 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z --- NEAR 10.4S 161.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 161.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 12.1S 163.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 13.7S 165.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 14.7S 165.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 15.3S 166.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 16.0S 167.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 16.7S 169.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 18.0S 173.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 162.1E.
03APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 586 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFI
CANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35
2520040300 104S1616E  40

>

2020-04-03 03:02

WTPS31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 002
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   030000Z --- NEAR 10.4S 161.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 10.4S 161.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   031200Z --- 12.1S 163.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   040000Z --- 13.7S 165.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 14.7S 165.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   050000Z --- 15.3S 166.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 16.0S 167.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 16.7S 169.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 18.0S 173.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
030300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8S 162.1E.
03APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
586 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDING
WRAPPING UNDER FLARING DEEP CONVECTION. A 022227Z METOP-A ASCAT
IMAGE REVEALS STRONGER (35-44 KT) WINDS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BASED ON THIS ASCAT PASS
AND THE MSI, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 40 KTS BASED ON THE HIGHER WINDS TO
THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. FURTHERMORE, THE INTENSITY IS SUPPORTED BY
A 022345Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41
KTS) AND IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5-3.0 (35-45 KTS) BY KNES, PHFO, AND
ABRF. TC 25P IS TRANSITING THROUGH AN OVERALL FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW (LESS THAN 10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND ESTABLISHED
POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE PERIPHERY FLOW OF A WEAK NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. BY TAU 12, A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING
MECHANISM. UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, TC 25P WILL TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY
FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION IN THE EARLY TAUS OF THE FORECAST DUE TO
THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AFTER TAU 48, TC 25P WILL TURN
AND ACCELERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH A PASSING
TROUGH AND THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. INCREASING VWS DUE TO THE
STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM AFTER
TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, WITH NAVGEM
AND GALWEM AS SOUTHERLY OUTLIERS AND UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE AS
NORTHERLY OUTLIERS. OF NOTE, THE NAVGEM SOLUTION PRESENTS
SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWER ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS. THEREFORE, THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND AHEAD OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET THE NAVGEM OUTLIER. DUE TO THE SPREAD IN
MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 030900Z, 031500Z, 032100Z AND 040300Z.//

>

2020-04-02 21:14

WTPS51 PGTW 022100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 25P SWP 200402204352
2020040218 25P HAROLD     001  01 100 15 SATL SYNP XTRP 040
T000 099S 1595E 035 R034 065 NE QD 000 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 114S 1617E 045 R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 127S 1633E 055 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T036 139S 1643E 065 R064 000 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD
T048 146S 1646E 070 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T072 153S 1651E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 090 NW QD
T096 161S 1674E 085 R064 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD
T120 174S 1712E 085 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 159.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 159.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 11.4S 161.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 12.7S 163.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 13.9S 164.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 14.6S 164.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 15.3S 165.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.1S 167.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 17.4S 171.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 160.0E.
02APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 694 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA,
VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 021800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND 032100Z.//
2520033118  91S1534E  20
2520040100  89S1539E  20
2520040106  89S1544E  20
2520040112  90S1552E  20
2520040118  92S1559E  20
2520040200  94S1563E  25
2520040206  94S1572E  30
2520040212  97S1580E  30
2520040218  99S1595E  35

>

2020-04-02 21:11

WTPS31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 25P (HAROLD) WARNING NR 001
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   021800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 159.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 100 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 159.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   030600Z --- 11.4S 161.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   031800Z --- 12.7S 163.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   040600Z --- 13.9S 164.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   041800Z --- 14.6S 164.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   051800Z --- 15.3S 165.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 16.1S 167.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 17.4S 171.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
022100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 160.0E.
02APR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 25P (HAROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
694 NM NORTHWEST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 15
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) THAT IS OBSCURED BY CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE TURNING OBSERVED IN EIR IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 021755Z
SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH DEPICTS BANDING WRAPPING INTO
THE LLCC AND A REGION OF DEEP  CONVECTION LOCATED WITHIN THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. BASED ON THIS MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE EIR,
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS PLACED IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MULTI-AGENCY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0-3.0 (30-45 KTS) BASED
ON THE IMPROVING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF TC 25P. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS REVEALS NEAR-RADIAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY TRACKING EASTWARD
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A WEAK NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH. BY TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST
WILL BUILD IN AND TAKE OVER THE STEERING, TURNING THE SYSTEM
SOUTHWARD WHILE SLOWING THE SYSTEM SPEED. AROUND TAU 72, TC 25P
WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES, CAUSING
THE SYSTEM TO ACCELERATE ALONG AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, TC 25P IS
EXPECTED TO STEADILY INTENSIFY TO 85 KTS BY TAU 96, SUPPORTED BY
THE CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIR AGREEMENT, POSSIBLY DUE TO THE CURRENT WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT. NAVGEM IS THE SOUTHERLY OUTLIER, TURNING TC 25P
POLEWARD BY TAU 12. CONVERSELY, THE UKMET AND UKMET ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS KEEP THE TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE MODEL MAJORITY. DUE
TO THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 021800Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 030300Z, 030900Z, 031500Z AND
032100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 020600).//

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