Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for GRETEL-20 in Norfolk Island, New Caledonia, New Zealand from 14 Mar 2020 18:00 UTC to 16 Mar 2020 00:00 UTC

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 160300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 200316010553
2020031600 23P GRETEL 006 01 135 25 SATL XTRP 060
T000 266S 1697E 050 R050 115 NE QD 000 SE QD 100 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 250 SE QD 210 SW Q
D 125 NW QD
T012 293S 1740E 050 R050 110 NE QD 000 SE QD 070 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 310 NE QD 260 SE QD 220 SW Q
D 270 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 26.6S 169.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 169.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 29.3S 174.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 27.3S 170.8E.
16MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (GRETEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AUCKL
AND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REG
ENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 32 FEET.//
2320031218 147S1484E 30
2320031300 154S1495E 30
2320031306 162S1512E 30
2320031312 167S1530E 30
2320031318 169S1538E 35
2320031400 169S1547E 35
2320031406 172S1565E 35
2320031412 177S1582E 40
2320031418 189S1600E 40
2320031500 202S1617E 50
2320031500 202S1617E 50
2320031506 217S1633E 55
2320031506 217S1633E 55
2320031512 231S1655E 55
2320031512 231S1655E 55
2320031518 248S1678E 50
2320031518 248S1678E 50
2320031600 266S1697E 50
2320031600 266S1697E 50

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 26.6S 169.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 169.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 29.3S 174.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 27.3S 170.8E.
16MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (GRETEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 675
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF AUCKLAND, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 25 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYSTEM WITH FRONTAL
SIGNATURES STARTING TO BECOME EVIDENT. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) IS POORLY DEFINED IN THE MSI. EXTRAPOLATION FROM A
152136Z ASCAT-B PASS AND THE MSI IMAGERY WERE USED TO IDENTIFY THE
INITIAL POSITION WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SUPPORTED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS WHICH SHOWED POCKETS OF 45-
50 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS. AN UPPER LEVEL
MIDLATITUDE JET IS PROVIDING ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND HIGH (25-30
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). AT 27-28 CELSIUS, SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE IS SUPPORTIVE. BASED ON THE MSI AND UPPER LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT, TC 23P IS UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC
23P IS TRACKING ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF EXTENSIVE RIDGING,
CENTERED NEAR 20S, 160W AND EXTENDING WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. OVER THE
NEXT 12 HOURS, THE CURRENT TRACK WILL CONTINUE AND TC 23P WILL
COMPLETE ETT, BECOMING A GALE-FORCE COLD CORE LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z
IS 32 FEET.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 152100
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 200315192016
2020031518 23P GRETEL 005 01 130 32 SATL 040
T000 251S 1683E 050 R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 245 NE QD 245 SE QD 205 SW Q
D 115 NW QD
T012 283S 1726E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 275 NE QD 240 SE QD 200 SW Q
D 220 NW QD
T024 306S 1770E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 060 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 230 SE QD 240 SW Q
D 290 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 25.1S 168.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 32 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S 168.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 28.3S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.6S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 169.4E.
15MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (GRETEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WELLI
NGTON, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 32 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800
Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
2320031218 147S1484E 30
2320031300 154S1495E 30
2320031306 162S1512E 30
2320031312 167S1530E 30
2320031318 169S1538E 35
2320031400 169S1547E 35
2320031406 172S1565E 35
2320031412 177S1582E 40
2320031418 189S1600E 40
2320031500 202S1617E 50
2320031500 202S1617E 50
2320031506 217S1633E 55
2320031506 217S1633E 55
2320031512 231S1655E 55
2320031512 231S1655E 55
2320031518 251S1683E 50
2320031518 251S1683E 50

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 25.1S 168.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 32 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.1S 168.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 28.3S 172.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 275 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.6S 177.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
290 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 169.4E.
15MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (GRETEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 780
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF WELLINGTON, NEW ZEALAND, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 32 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND CONVECTION BEING DISPLACED POLEWARD AND EAST OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON MID AND UPPER LEVEL TURNING IN THE
EIR IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT
WITH DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T3.0-T3.5 (45-55 KTS). A
MIDLATITUDE JET TO THE SOUTH IS PROVIDING STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
HIGH (25-30 KT) VWS, MAKING THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT MARGINAL. AT
27-28 CELSIUS, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS SUPPORTIVE. BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT AND SATELLITE IMAGERY, IT APPEARS TC 23P IS IN
THE EARLY STAGES OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TC 23P IS TRACKING
ALONG THE POLEWARD PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AHEAD OF AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST. THE CURRENT TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SYSTEM UNDERGOES ETT. AROUND TAU 24, TC
23P WILL HAVE TRANSITIONED INTO A GALE FORCE, COLD CORE LOW. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS
32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 151500
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 200315141205
2020031512 23P GRETEL 004 01 120 25 SATL XTRP 035
T000 229S 1657E 055 R050 075 NE QD 045 SE QD 055 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 140 SE QD 170 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T012 263S 1698E 055 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 220 SE QD 200 SW Q
D 200 NW QD
T024 291S 1742E 050 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 200 SE QD 210 SW Q
D 240 NW QD
T036 309S 1788E 045 R034 260 NE QD 200 SE QD 250 SW QD 240 NW QD
T048 321S 1760W 040 R034 220 NE QD 230 SE QD 260 SW QD 230 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 22.9S 165.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 165.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 26.3S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 29.1S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 30.9S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 32.1S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 166.7E.
15MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (GRETEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA
, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161
500Z.//
2320031218 147S1484E 30
2320031300 154S1495E 30
2320031306 162S1512E 30
2320031312 167S1530E 30
2320031318 169S1538E 35
2320031400 169S1547E 35
2320031406 172S1565E 35
2320031412 177S1582E 40
2320031418 189S1600E 40
2320031500 202S1617E 50
2320031500 202S1617E 50
2320031506 217S1633E 55
2320031506 217S1633E 55
2320031512 229S1657E 55
2320031512 229S1657E 55

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 22.9S 165.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 25 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9S 165.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 26.3S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 29.1S 174.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 30.9S 178.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 32.1S 176.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 23.7S 166.7E.
15MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (GRETEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 53
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 25 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DIMINISHING DEEP
CONVECTION ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WRAP INTO THE LLCC.
BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY AND AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 151026Z METOP-B
DIRECT ASCAT IMAGE, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE. THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS REVEALS 50-54 KT WIND BARBS
WITHIN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 55 KTS. THIS INTENSITY IS FURTHER SUPPORTED BY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KTS) BY PGTW/KNES AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE PHFO DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45
KTS). WIND RADII HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON THE RECENT ASCAT DATA.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-
20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, CONTRIBUTING TO AN OVERALL MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST IS ACTING AS
THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM. UNDER ITS INFLUENCE, TC 23P WILL
TRACK FIRST SOUTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW TC 23P TO
MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY IN THE NEAR TERM. AFTER TAU 12, HIGH
VWS WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY, TC 23P WILL START
TO INTERACT WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH AND BEGIN
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). ETT COMPLETION IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU
48, IF NOT SOONER, AS TC 23P BECOMES A GALE STRENGTH, COLD CORE LOW.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH A CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF 115 NM BY TAU 48. THUS, THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS
33 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 150900
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 200315080042
2020031506 23P GRETEL 003 01 135 21 SATL 025
T000 217S 1633E 055 R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW Q
D 105 NW QD
T012 250S 1671E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW Q
D 170 NW QD
T024 282S 1713E 055 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 220 SE QD 190 SW Q
D 210 NW QD
T036 305S 1757E 050 R050 010 NE QD 020 SE QD 060 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW Q
D 230 NW QD
T048 320S 1796W 045 R034 250 NE QD 220 SE QD 230 SW QD 240 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 21.7S 163.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 163.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 25.0S 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 28.2S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.5S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 32.0S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 164.3E.
15MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (GRETEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 158 NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALE
DONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WA
VE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.//
2320031218 147S1484E 30
2320031300 154S1495E 30
2320031306 162S1512E 30
2320031312 167S1530E 30
2320031318 169S1538E 35
2320031400 169S1547E 35
2320031406 172S1565E 35
2320031412 177S1582E 40
2320031418 189S1600E 40
2320031500 202S1617E 50
2320031500 202S1617E 50
2320031506 217S1633E 55
2320031506 217S1633E 55

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 21.7S 163.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7S 163.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 25.0S 167.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 28.2S 171.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.5S 175.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 32.0S 179.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 164.3E.
15MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (GRETEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
158 NM WEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT
21 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING TIGHTLY
INTO A MOSTLY-OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THIS MSI
COMBINED WITH A 150522Z SSMIS 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALING A
MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE LEND HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0-3.5 (45-55 KTS,
PGTW/KNES/PHFO/NFFN) AND A 150510Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE OF T3.3 (51 KTS) WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-
29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO AN OVERALL
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. TC 23P
IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE. UNDER ITS STEERING INFLUENCE, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
FOLLOW A SOUTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CURRENT ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
ALLOW TC 23P A BRIEF PERIOD OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION TO 60 KTS
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF STRONG VWS AFTER TAU 12. AT THIS POINT, THE
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN SLOWLY AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED TO
THE SOUTH. ETT COMPLETION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 48 WITH TC 23P BECOMING
A GALE STRENGTH, COLD CORE LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A CROSS-
TRACK SPREAD OF 90 NM AT TAU 48. THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150600Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND
160900Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 150300
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 200315005727
2020031500 23P GRETEL 002 01 130 21 SATL 030
T000 202S 1617E 050 R050 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 150 SE QD 125 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 233S 1650E 055 R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 240 SE QD 200 SW QD 160 NW QD
T024 267S 1690E 055 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 280 NE QD 270 SE QD 210 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 296S 1729E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 250 SE QD 200 SW QD 250 NW QD
T048 313S 1772E 050 R050 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 230 SE QD 220 SW QD 250 NW QD
T072 330S 1738W 045 R034 230 NE QD 250 SE QD 250 SW QD 270 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 161.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 161.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.3S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 26.7S 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 29.6S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 31.3S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 33.0S 173.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 162.5E.
15MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (GRETEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 271 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//
2320031218 147S1484E 30
2320031300 154S1495E 30
2320031306 162S1512E 30
2320031312 167S1530E 30
2320031318 169S1538E 35
2320031400 169S1547E 35
2320031406 172S1565E 35
2320031412 177S1582E 40
2320031418 189S1600E 40
2320031500 202S1617E 50
2320031500 202S1617E 50
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 20.2S 161.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 161.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 23.3S 165.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 26.7S 169.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 280 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 29.6S 172.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 31.3S 177.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 33.0S 173.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 21.0S 162.5E.
15MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (GRETEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
271 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS RAIN BANDS SPIRALING INTO A
MOSTLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION
IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF THE MSI IMAGERY AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM
A 142222Z ASCAT-A PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE 50 KT INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON 45-50 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST, SOUTHWEST,
AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANTS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS. THIS
INTENSITY IS SLIGHTLY ABOVE, BUT CONSISTENT WITH, THE PGTW DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS). WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL
OVERALL. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 23P WILL TRACK ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW SOME INTENSIFICATION BEFORE
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CAUSES SLOW WEAKENING. THE MID-LATITUDE
BAROCLINIC ZONE IS JUST SOUTH OF TC 23P. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) AS IT BEGINS INTERACTING WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. ETT SHOULD COMPLETE AROUND TAU 60 WITH TC 23P
BECOMING A GALE STRENGTH, COLD CORE LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN STRONG AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48. AFTERWARD, THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE AND THE SPREAD INCREASES TO ABOUT 200 NM BY TAU 72.
BASED ON THE SPREAD, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 48 AND MODERATE CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.//
NNNN

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Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 142100
WARNING ATCG MIL 23P SWP 200314193103
2020031418 23P GRETEL 001 01 125 21 SATL 045
T000 189S 1600E 040 R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T012 216S 1632E 050 R050 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 260 NE QD 230 SE QD 160 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 249S 1668E 060 R050 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 270 NE QD 270 SE QD 200 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 281S 1707E 055 R050 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 250 SE QD 190 SW QD 210 NW QD
T048 305S 1747E 055 R050 030 NE QD 060 SE QD 090 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 230 SE QD 190 SW QD 220 NW QD
T072 325S 1770W 050 R050 000 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 240 SE QD 210 SW QD 210 NW QD
AMP
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 160.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 160.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.6S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.9S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 28.1S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.5S 174.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 32.5S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 160.8E.
14MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 393 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.//
2320031218 147S1484E 30
2320031300 154S1495E 30
2320031306 162S1512E 30
2320031312 167S1530E 30
2320031318 169S1538E 35
2320031400 169S1547E 35
2320031406 172S1565E 35
2320031412 177S1582E 40
2320031418 189S1600E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 23P (GRETEL) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 18.9S 160.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9S 160.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.6S 163.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 24.9S 166.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 28.1S 170.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 30.5S 174.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 18 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 32.5S 177.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 160.8E.
14MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 23P (GRETEL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
393 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A LARGE 300-400 NM
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO). THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION, PLACED BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM BANDING FEATURES IN A
141649Z SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE. THIS POSITION SUGGESTS THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF
THE CDO. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS CONSISTENT WITH A
141140Z ASCAT-C PASS SHOWING A REGION OF 40 KTS TO THE NORTHEAST OF
A BROAD LLCC. THIS INTENSITY FALLS ON THE HIGH SIDE OF THE PGTW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING TC 23P IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH EXCELLENT OUTFLOW,
PARTICULARLY ON THE POLEWARD SIDE, MODERATE (15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE. FOR
THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 23P WILL TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION THROUGH TAU 24. AFTERWARD,
STRONG VWS AND COOL SST WILL CAUSE SOME WEAKENING FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST. AROUND TAU 36, THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN INTERACTING
WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DIGGING IN FROM THE WEST. THIS TROUGH,
AND THE ACCOMPANYING BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). ETT SHOULD COMPLETE BETWEEN TAU 48 AND 72. WITH
100NM OF SPREAD BY TAU 72, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 141500).//
NNNN

>

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