Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HEROLD-20
in Mauritius, Madagascar

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2020-03-19 20:34

WTXS51 PGTW 192100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 22S SIO 200319192038
2020031918 22S HEROLD     014  01 125 11 SATL 030
T000 266S 0730E 030
T012 283S 0745E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 014
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 73.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 73.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 28.3S 74.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 73.4E.
19MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 948
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z
IS 17 FEET.
//
2220031212 143S 540E  25
2220031218 141S 534E  25
2220031300 141S 528E  30
2220031306 143S 524E  35
2220031312 145S 522E  40
2220031318 149S 516E  45
2220031400 151S 511E  55
2220031400 151S 511E  55
2220031406 151S 509E  60
2220031406 151S 509E  60
2220031412 150S 510E  60
2220031412 150S 510E  60
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031703 185S 594E 100
2220031703 185S 594E 100
2220031703 185S 594E 100
2220031706 191S 604E  90
2220031706 191S 604E  90
2220031706 191S 604E  90
2220031712 199S 620E  80
2220031712 199S 620E  80
2220031712 199S 620E  80
2220031718 209S 635E  70
2220031718 209S 635E  70
2220031718 209S 635E  70
2220031800 217S 650E  60
2220031800 217S 650E  60
2220031806 227S 661E  55
2220031806 227S 661E  55
2220031812 233S 674E  55
2220031812 233S 674E  55
2220031818 240S 688E  45
2220031900 248S 699E  45
2220031906 254S 711E  40
2220031912 260S 720E  35
2220031918 266S 730E  30
NNNN

>

2020-03-19 20:33

WTXS31 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 014//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 014
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 26.6S 73.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.6S 73.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 28.3S 74.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 27.0S 73.4E.
19MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
948 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED, FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SPORADIC, FLARING
CONVECTION SHEARED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC IN THE EIR
LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A BROAD LLCC PRESENT IN A 191303Z SSMIS
37 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KTS IS ALSO PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T1.5 (25 KTS) AND THE PRESENCE OF 30 KTS WINDS LOCATED TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IN TIMELY 191727Z METOP-B
ASCAT DATA. TC 22S IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (30-35 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COOL
(25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THESE UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS HAVE CAUSED TC HEROLD TO WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND
DISSIPATE OVER WATER. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z
IS 17 FEET.
//
NNNN

>

2020-03-19 08:53

WTXS51 PGTW 190900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 22S SIO 200319082618
2020031906 22S HEROLD     013  01 120 12 SATL XTRP 025
T000 254S 0711E 040 R034 085 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 268S 0728E 035 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 285S 0742E 030
AMP
    012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 013
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 71.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 71.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 26.8S 72.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 28.5S 74.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 71.5E.
19MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 827 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z.//
2220031212 143S 540E  25
2220031218 141S 534E  25
2220031300 141S 528E  30
2220031306 143S 524E  35
2220031312 145S 522E  40
2220031318 149S 516E  45
2220031400 151S 511E  55
2220031400 151S 511E  55
2220031406 151S 509E  60
2220031406 151S 509E  60
2220031412 150S 510E  60
2220031412 150S 510E  60
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031703 185S 594E 100
2220031703 185S 594E 100
2220031703 185S 594E 100
2220031706 191S 604E  90
2220031706 191S 604E  90
2220031706 191S 604E  90
2220031712 199S 620E  80
2220031712 199S 620E  80
2220031712 199S 620E  80
2220031718 209S 635E  70
2220031718 209S 635E  70
2220031718 209S 635E  70
2220031800 217S 650E  60
2220031800 217S 650E  60
2220031806 227S 661E  55
2220031806 227S 661E  55
2220031812 233S 674E  55
2220031812 233S 674E  55
2220031818 240S 688E  45
2220031900 248S 699E  45
2220031906 254S 711E  40
NNNN

>

2020-03-19 08:52

WTXS31 PGTW 190900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 013
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   190600Z --- NEAR 25.4S 71.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.4S 71.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 26.8S 72.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 28.5S 74.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
190900Z POSITION NEAR 25.7S 71.5E.
19MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
827 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH MINIMAL ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED
ON THE MSI AND AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A TIMELY BULLSEYE 190501Z METOP-B
ASCAT PASS. SUPPORTED BY MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.5-3.0 (35-45 KTS) BY PGTW/KNES, A 190545Z ADVANCED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T2.9 (43 KTS), AND THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT IMAGE WHICH REVEALS A SWATH OF 35-39 KT WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40
KTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS CONTINUED GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW,
HIGH (25-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, TC 22S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 24, STEADILY WEAKENING AS IT
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SST. SYSTEM DISSIPATION IS
EXPECTED BY TAU 24. OVERALL, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. NAVGEM, AN OUTLIER, TRACKS TC 22S ALONG A SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD SOLUTION AT A HIGHER TRACK SPEED FROM THE CURRENT
POSITION. ADDITIONALLY, AFTER TAU 12, THE GALWEM SOLUTION DIVERGES
FROM THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO PURSUE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK. THUS,
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS PLACED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE MULTI-
MODEL CONSENSUS, LENDING OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 192100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-03-18 20:56

WTXS51 PGTW 182100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 22S SIO 200318201729
2020031818 22S HEROLD     012  01 130 22 SATL 030
T000 247S 0692E 045 R034 095 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 258S 0712E 040 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 269S 0728E 035 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 24.7S 69.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 69.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 25.8S 71.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 26.9S 72.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 69.7E.
18MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z.
//
2220031212 143S 540E  25
2220031218 141S 534E  25
2220031300 141S 528E  30
2220031306 143S 524E  35
2220031312 145S 522E  40
2220031318 149S 516E  45
2220031400 151S 511E  55
2220031400 151S 511E  55
2220031406 151S 509E  60
2220031406 151S 509E  60
2220031412 150S 510E  60
2220031412 150S 510E  60
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031703 185S 594E 100
2220031703 185S 594E 100
2220031703 185S 594E 100
2220031706 191S 604E  90
2220031706 191S 604E  90
2220031706 191S 604E  90
2220031712 199S 620E  80
2220031712 199S 620E  80
2220031712 199S 620E  80
2220031718 209S 635E  70
2220031718 209S 635E  70
2220031718 209S 635E  70
2220031800 217S 650E  60
2220031800 217S 650E  60
2220031806 227S 661E  55
2220031806 227S 661E  55
2220031812 233S 674E  55
2220031812 233S 674E  55
2220031818 247S 692E  45
NNNN

>

2020-03-18 20:55

WTXS31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 012
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   181800Z --- NEAR 24.7S 69.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.7S 69.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 25.8S 71.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   191800Z --- 26.9S 72.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 25.0S 69.7E.
18MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
715 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS CYCLING, DEEP CONVECTION
PARTIALLY OBSCURING A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON
EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE LLCC PRESENT IN A 181355Z WINDSAT IMAGE TO
THE PARTIALLY OBSCURED LLCC IN THE EIR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 45 KTS IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIAL 181747Z
ASCAT-B PASS DEPICTING 40-45 KTS WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LLCC AS
WELL AS AN 181356Z SMAP IMAGE REFLECTING 40 KTS WINDS (10 MINUTE
AVERAGE). FURTHERMORE, THE 45 KTS INTENSITY IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A
PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS). TC 22P IS
FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE 24 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES
AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO
30 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM HAS COMMENCED SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) AND
IS FORECAST TO COMPLETE STT BY TAU 24 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT WITH LESS THAN 40 NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNING AT 190900Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-03-18 12:24

WTIO31 FMEE 181214
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 25/10/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 18/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.3 S / 67.4 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES TROIS SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 14 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 992 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 130 SO: 170 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 70 SO: 90 NO: 110


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 19/03/2020 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
TROPICALE
24H: 19/03/2020 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 20/03/2020 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 20/03/2020 12 UTC: 27.9 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.0- CI=3.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE CISAILLEE D'HEROLD PERSISTE. TOUTEFOIS AU
COURS DES DERNIERS INSTANTS, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE DANS LA PARTIE SUD
DU SYSTEME SE RAPPROCHE A NOUVEAU DU CENTRE, LE LAISSANT EN BORDURE
DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE. LES DIFFERENTES ESTIMATIONS D'INTENSITE
LAISSENT LE SYSTEME AVEC DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 35/40KT. LA
PROXIMITE DU CENTRE DANS CETTE CONFIGURATION CISAILLE PLAIDE POUR DES
VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 40KT, LAISSANT HEROLD AU SEUIL DE TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE HEROLD. IL CONTINUE DE SE
DEPLACER RAPIDEMENT EN DIRECTION GLOBALE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST. IL
DEVRAIT EN COURS DE NUIT, COMMENCER A RALENTIR AVEC LA BAISSE DU
NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR. PAR LA SUITE, HEROLD VA PASSER SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UN PROFOND TALWEG AU SUD-OUEST AU SEIN DUQUEL IL
DEVRAIT DISPARAITRE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE SE POURSUIT SOUS L'IMPACT GRANDISSANT DU
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. LA CONVECTION VA CONTINUER DE FAIBLIR LIMITANT
L'INTENSITE DU VORTEX. CETTE SITUATION LAISSERA DES VENTS INFERIEURS
A 30 KT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 6H. HEROLD VA DONC SE COMBLER
PROGRESSIVEMENT, JUSTIFIANT L'ARRET DU SUIVI SUR CE SYSTEME.

DERNIER BULLETIN SUR CE SYSTEME SAUF RE-INTENSIFICATION=

>

2020-03-18 12:24

WTIO30 FMEE 181214
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/10/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/18 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3 S / 67.4 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 130 SW: 170 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 110


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/19 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 69.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/03/19 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/03/20 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/03/20 12 UTC: 27.9 S / 72.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- CI=3.5-

HEROLD'S SHEARED CLOUD PATTERN PERSISTS. HOWEVER, IN THE LAST FEW
MOMENTS, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM IS
AGAIN NEAR THE CENTRE, LEAVING IT AT THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY. THE DIFFERENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES LEAVE THE SYSTEM WITH
WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 35/40KT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE CENTRE IN THIS
SHEAR CONFIGURATION PLEADS FOR WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 40KT, LEAVING
HEROLD AT THE THRESHOLD OF A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM.

NO CHANGE IN HEROLD'S FORECAST. IT CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY IN A
GENERAL EAST-SOUTH-EAST DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. IT SHOULD, OVER NIGHT, START TO
SLOW DOWN DUE THE LOWERING OF THE STEERING FLOW LEVEL. THEREAFTER,
HEROLD WILL PASS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH TO THE
SOUTHWEST BEFORE MERGING WITH IT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE RAPID WEAKENING CONTINUES UNDER THE IMPACT OF THE NORTHWEST SHEAR
AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR INTRUSION. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN, LIMITING THE INTENSITY OF THE VORTEX. THIS SITUATION WILL
LEAVE WINDS BELOW 30 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 6 HOURS. HEROLD WILL
THEREFORE GRADUALLY FILL IN, JUSTIFYING THE CESSATION OF MONITORING
OF THIS SYSTEM.

LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION=

>

2020-03-18 12:07

WTIO20 FMEE 181203
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/03/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 024/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 18/03/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD) 992 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.3 S / 67.4 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 14 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/19 AT 00 UTC:
24.1 S / 69.2 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/03/19 AT 12 UTC:
25.0 S / 70.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION=

>

2020-03-18 08:07

WTXS51 PGTW 180900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 22S SIO 200318072505
2020031806 22S HEROLD     011  01 135 14 SATL 020
T000 227S 0661E 055 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 060 SE QD 090 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 238S 0683E 045 R034 080 NE QD 055 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD
T024 247S 0699E 035 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 22.7S 66.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 66.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 23.8S 68.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 24.7S 69.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 66.7E.
18MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 516
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 182100Z.//
2220031212 143S 540E  25
2220031218 141S 534E  25
2220031300 141S 528E  30
2220031306 143S 524E  35
2220031312 145S 522E  40
2220031318 149S 516E  45
2220031400 151S 511E  55
2220031400 151S 511E  55
2220031406 151S 509E  60
2220031406 151S 509E  60
2220031412 150S 510E  60
2220031412 150S 510E  60
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031703 185S 594E 100
2220031703 185S 594E 100
2220031703 185S 594E 100
2220031706 191S 604E  90
2220031706 191S 604E  90
2220031706 191S 604E  90
2220031712 199S 620E  80
2220031712 199S 620E  80
2220031712 199S 620E  80
2220031718 209S 635E  70
2220031718 209S 635E  70
2220031718 209S 635E  70
2220031800 217S 650E  60
2220031800 217S 650E  60
2220031806 227S 661E  55
2220031806 227S 661E  55
NNNN

>

2020-03-18 08:03

WTXS31 PGTW 180900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 011
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   180600Z --- NEAR 22.7S 66.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 66.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 23.8S 68.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 24.7S 69.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 23.0S 66.7E.
18MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
516 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED ABOUT 48NM TO THE SOUTHEAST
DUE TO STRONG NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30
KNOTS). THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 55 KNOTS BASED ON AN
180521Z ASCAT-B IMAGE, WHICH SHOWS 50-55 KNOT WINDS OVER THE WESTERN
QUADRANT. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE
BULLSEYE ASCAT-B IMAGE. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
OVERALL, TRACK UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LOW WITH A TIGHT CLUSTER OF
NUMERICAL MODEL AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 24. TC
22S WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN STEADILY AS IT CONTINUES TO INTERACT
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM HAS COMMENCED SUBTROPICAL
TRANSITION (STT) AND SHOULD COMPLETE STT BY TAU 24 AS IT BECOMES
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW. DUE TO THE
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AND RAPID WEAKENING, THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR
THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATE PRIOR TO COMPLETING STT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-03-18 06:41

WTIO31 FMEE 180614
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 24/10/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 18/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.8 S / 66.1 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE SIX DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 15 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 984 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 50 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 130 SO: 170 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 18/03/2020 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 19/03/2020 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 19/03/2020 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 20/03/2020 06 UTC: 27.0 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5+ CI=4.0

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE D'HEROLD N'EVOLUE PAS : SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU
PUISSANT CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST, L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE SE
CONCENTRE DANS LA PARTIE SUD DU SYSTEME ET PLUS LOIN DU CENTRE DANS
LE SECTEUR EST. LA PASSE ASCAT DE 0520UTC PERMET DE NOTER DES VENTS
QUI SATURENT ENCORE A 45KT DANS LA SECTEUR OUEST, CE QUI LAISSE
SUPPOSER ENCORE DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 50KT.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT SUR LA PREVISION DE HEROLD. IL CONTINUE DE SE
DEPLACER RAPIDEMENT EN DIRECTION GLOBALE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST. IL
DEVRAIT EN FIN DE JOURNEE, COMMENCER A RALENTIR AVEC LA BAISSE DU
NIVEAU DU FLUX DIRECTEUR. PAR LA SUITE, HEROLD VA PASSER SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UN PROFOND TALWEG AU SUD-OUEST AU SEIN DUQUEL IL
DEVRAIT DISPARAITRE EN FIN DE SEMAINE. IL Y A TOUJOURS UNE BONNE
CONVERGENCE DES MODELES SUR CE SCENARIO.

SOUS L'IMPACT GRANDISSANT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET
L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
RAPIDE VA SE POURSUIVRE DANS LA JOURNEE. LA CONVECTION SERA QUASIMENT
ABSENTE MAIS LE VORTEX DEVRAIT MAINTENIR DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE DE 35KT
PENDANT ENCORE 12H, AVANT DE SE COMBLER PROGRESSIVEMENT.=

>

2020-03-18 06:41

WTIO30 FMEE 180614
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/10/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/18 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 66.1 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 130 SW: 170 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/18 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/19 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 69.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/03/19 18 UTC: 25.6 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/03/20 06 UTC: 27.0 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.0

THE HEROLD CLOUD PATTERN DOES NOT EVOLVE : UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
STRONG NORTHWESTERN SHEAR, CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS CONCENTRATED IN THE
SOUTHERN PART OF THE SYSTEM AND FURTHER FROM THE CENTRE IN THE
EASTERN SECTOR. THE 0520UTC ASCAT SWATH SHOWS WINDS STILL SATURATING
AT 45KT IN THE WESTERN SECTOR, WHICH SUGGESTS WINDS STILL AROUND
50KT.

NO CHANGE IN HEROLD'S FORECAST. IT CONTINUES TO MOVE RAPIDLY IN A
GENERAL EAST-SOUTH-EAST DIRECTION UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. DURING THE AFTERNOON, IT SHOULD
BEGIN TO SLOW DUE THE LOWERING OF THE STEERING FLOW LEVEL.
THEREAFTER, HEROLD WILL PASS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH TO
THE SOUTHWEST BEFORE MERGING WITH IT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE STILL IN A GOOD AGREEMENT IN THIS SCENARIO.

UNDER THE INCREASING IMPACT OF THE NORTHWEST SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED DRY
AIR INTRUSION, THE RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON GOING
DURING THE DAY. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALMOST ABSENT BUT THE
LOW-LEVEL VORTEX SHOULD MAINTAIN WINDS OF AROUND 35 KNOTS FOR ANOTHER
12 HOURS, BEFORE GRADUALLY FILLING IN.=

>

2020-03-18 06:08

WTIO20 FMEE 180603
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/03/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 023/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 18/03/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD) 984 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.8 S / 66.1 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER, EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN QUADRANT AND EXTENDING UP TO 240 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 30
NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 100 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 70
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 140 NM
IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/18 AT 18 UTC:
23.8 S / 68.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/03/19 AT 06 UTC:
24.6 S / 69.9 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-03-18 01:08

WTIO31 FMEE 180057
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 23/10/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 18/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 21.8 S / 65.0 E
(VINGT UN DEGRES HUIT SUD ET SOIXANTE CINQ DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 978 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 260 SO: 170 NO: 170
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SO: 110 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 18/03/2020 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 19/03/2020 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 19/03/2020 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 20/03/2020 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=3.5+ CI=4.5

LA CONFIGURATION D'HEROLD A PEU EVOLUE CES DERNIERES HEURES AVEC UNE
STRUCTURE CISAILLEE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DU PUISSANT CISAILLEMENT DE
NORD-OUEST. LA PASSE AMSR2 DE 2128Z SEMBLE INDIQUER QUE LA
CIRCULATION DE BASSES COUCHES COMMENCE A S'ALLONGER. LA POSITION A
00Z INITIALEMENT ASSEZ INCERTAINE A ETE RECALE PLUS AU NORD APRES LE
RESEAU GRACE AUX DONNES MICRO-ONDES ARRIVEES TARDIVEMENT. L'INTENSITE
INITIALE RESTE ASSEZ INCERTAINE TOUJOURS PAR MANQUE DE MESURE
DIRECTE.

HEROLD CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER RAPIDEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST QUI
GOUVERNE SA TRAJECTOIRE. IL DEVRAIT AUJOURD'HUI, COMMENCER A RALENTIR
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES AVEC LA BAISSE DU NIVEAU DU FLUX
DIRECTEUR. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, HEROLD VA PASSER SOUS L'INFLUENCE
D'UN PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST AU SEIN DUQUEL IL DEVRAIT
DISPARAITRE EN FIN DE SEMAINE. IL Y A TOUJOURS UNE BONNE CONVERGENCE
DES MODELES SUR CE SCENARIO.

SOUS L'IMPACT GRANDISSANT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET
L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
RAPIDE VA SE POURSUIVRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS. D'ICI 48H LES
VENTS NE DEVRAIENT PLUS ATTENDRE LE COUP DE VENT.=

>

2020-03-18 01:08

WTIO30 FMEE 180057
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/10/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/18 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 65.0 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.5/W 2.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 978 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 300 SE: 260 SW: 170 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 170 SW: 110 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/18 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/19 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 69.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/03/19 12 UTC: 24.7 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/03/20 00 UTC: 25.9 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5+ CI=4.5

HEROLD DID NOT EVOLVED A LOT SINCE 18Z WITH A SHEAR PATTERN DUE TO
THE STRONG IMPACT OF THE NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 2128Z
AMRS2 SEEMS TO INDICATE THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS BECOMING
MORE ELONGATED. 00Z POSITION WAS INITIALLY RATHER UNCERTAIN, BUT WAS
SHIFTED AFTER THE PRODUCTION TIME NORTHERLY THANKS TO LATE MICROWAVE
DATE. INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS NOT VERY RELIABLE SDUE TO THE LACK OF
DIRECT MEASURE OF MAXIMUM WINDS.

HEROLD CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY ON A HEADING OSCILLATING BETWEEN THE
SOUTH-EAST AND THE EAST-SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH GOVERNS ITS TRACK. IT
SHOULD START SLOWING DOWN TODAY WITH THE LOWERING OF THE STEERING
FLOW LEVEL. FROM WEDNESDAY, HEROLD WILL MOVE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH-WEST BEFORE MERGING WITH IT BY THE END OF
THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE ON
THIS TRACK.

UNDER THE INCREASING IMPACT OF THE NORTHWEST SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED DRY
AIR INTRUSION, THE RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON GOING. BY
48H THERE SHOULD BE NO LONGER GALE FORCE WIND.=

>

2020-03-18 00:50

WTIO20 FMEE 180049 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/03/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 18/03/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.8 S / 65.0 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/18 AT 12 UTC:
23.1 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/03/19 AT 00 UTC:
23.9 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
CHANGE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND POSITION=

>

2020-03-18 00:31

WTIO20 FMEE 180029
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 18/03/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 022/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: WEDNESDAY 18/03/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD) 978 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.0 S / 65.0 E
(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY FIVE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 50 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 90
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 140 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 160 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/18 AT 12 UTC:
23.2 S / 67.5 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/03/19 AT 00 UTC:
24.1 S / 69.3 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-03-17 21:02

WTXS51 PGTW 172100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 22S SIO 200317200548
2020031718 22S HEROLD     010  01 130 18 SATL 020
T000 210S 0635E 070 R064 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD
T012 225S 0660E 055 R050 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T024 236S 0682E 045 R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 244S 0698E 040 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z --- NEAR 21.0S 63.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 63.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 22.5S 66.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 23.6S 68.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 24.4S 69.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 64.1E.
17MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.
//
2220031212 143S 540E  25
2220031218 141S 534E  25
2220031300 141S 528E  30
2220031306 143S 524E  35
2220031312 145S 522E  40
2220031318 149S 516E  45
2220031400 151S 511E  55
2220031400 151S 511E  55
2220031406 151S 509E  60
2220031406 151S 509E  60
2220031412 150S 510E  60
2220031412 150S 510E  60
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031703 185S 594E 100
2220031703 185S 594E 100
2220031703 185S 594E 100
2220031706 191S 604E  90
2220031706 191S 604E  90
2220031706 191S 604E  90
2220031712 199S 620E  80
2220031712 199S 620E  80
2220031712 199S 620E  80
2220031718 210S 635E  70
2220031718 210S 635E  70
2220031718 210S 635E  70
NNNN

>

2020-03-17 21:00

WTXS31 PGTW 172100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 010
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   171800Z --- NEAR 21.0S 63.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 21.0S 63.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 22.5S 66.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 23.6S 68.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 24.4S 69.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
172100Z POSITION NEAR 21.4S 64.1E.
17MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
352 NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING TREND OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL CONVECTION OF 22S SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF A
PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE LLCC PRESENT IN
THE EIR LOOP AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE PRESENT
IN A 171414Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS WAS
FURTHER DEVELOPED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE WIND FIELDS
PRESENT IN THE WINDSAT SCATTEROMETRY DATA. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
70 KTS IS PLACED BELOW MULTIAGENCY CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T4.5 (77 KTS, KNES/FIMP) AND T5.0 (90 KTS, PGTW/FMEE). THESE
AGENCIES (PGTW, KNES, FMEE, FIMP) AGREE ON A GENERAL WEAKENING
TREND, WITH CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ALL DEVELOPED BASED ON A
DVORAK DATA T OF T4.0 (65 KTS). TC 22S IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
THE SYSTEM IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING SUBTROPICAL AS IT MOVES
UNDER UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES IN AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. BY TAU 36, TC HEROLD WILL BECOME A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM
AS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE WIND SHEAR (VWS) (>30 KTS)
AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) (<28 CELSIUS). INCREASING
VWS AND COOLING SST WILL CAUSE TC 22S TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. OVERALL, TRACK UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
LOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST WITH LESS THAN 60 NM OF SPREAD
BETWEEN THE MEMBERS OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 180900Z AND 182100Z.
//
NNNN

>

2020-03-17 19:11

WTIO31 FMEE 171838
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 22/10/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 17/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.9 S / 63.5 E
(VINGT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE TROIS DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 975 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 440 SE: 180 SO: 220 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SO: 170 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 18/03/2020 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 18/03/2020 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 19/03/2020 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
48H: 19/03/2020 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 20/03/2020 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0- CI=5.0

APRES AVOIR ATTEINT SON PIC D'INTENSITE CE MATIN, HEROLD EST ENTRE EN
PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT RAPIDE SOUS L'EFFET D'UN PUISSANT
CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST NOTAMMENT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. CETTE
CONTRAINTE ASSOCIE A UNE MASSE D'AIR SECHE A ISOLER LE CENTRE DE
L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE PRINCIPALE (QUADRANT SUD-EST), COMME LE MONTRE
LES DONNES MICRO-ONDES DES DERNIERES HEURES (GMI 1421Z, WINDSAT 1414Z
ET SSMIS 1330Z). AU VU DE CETTE EVOLUTION, EN L'ABSENCE D'ESTIMATIONS
OBJECTIVES D'INTENSITE FIABLE OU DE MESURE DIRECTE, L'INTENSITE EST
ABAISSEE A 65KT. D'APRES LES DONNEES A NOTRE DISPOSITION, LE CENTRE
DE HEROLD EST PASSE A ENVIRON 100KM AU SUD-OUEST DE RODRIGUES VERS
15Z, OU LA PRESSION EST DESCENDUE A 996HPA (POINT CANON) AVEC UNE
RAFALE DE VENT MAXIMALE DE 70KT (PLAINE CORAIL).

HEROLD CONTINUE DE SE DEPLACER RAPIDEMENT VERS LE SUD-EST SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST QUI
GOUVERNE SA TRAJECTOIRE. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, HEROLD VA PASSER SOUS
L'INFLUENCE D'UN PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST AU SEIN DUQUEL IL
DEVRAIT DISPARAITRE EN FIN DE SEMAINE. IL Y A TOUJOURS UNE BONNE
CONVERGENCE DES MODELES SUR CE SCENARIO.

SOUS L'IMPACT GRANDISSANT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET
L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
RAPIDE VA SE POURSUIVRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS. D'ICI 48H LES
VENTS NE DEVRAIENT PLUS ATTENDRE LE COUP DE VENT.

A L'ARRIERE D'HEROLD, EN RAISON DE SON DEPLACEMENT ET DE SA
STRUCUTRE, LES CONDITIONS VONT S'AMELIORER RAPIDEMENT CETTE NUIT A
RODRIGUES.=

>

2020-03-17 19:11

WTIO30 FMEE 171838
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/10/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/17 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 63.5 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 975 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 440 SE: 180 SW: 220 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 150 SW: 170 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/18 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/18 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/03/19 06 UTC: 24.5 S / 69.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
48H: 2020/03/19 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 70.7 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/03/20 06 UTC: 27.5 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0- CI=5.0

AFTER REACHING ITS PEAK INTENSITY THIS MORNING, HEROLD STARTED TO
WEAKEN RAPIDLY UNDERGOING A STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (IN MID
TROPOSPHERE ESPECIALLY). THIS CONSTRAINT ASSOICATED WITH DRY AIR
ISOLATED THE CENTRE FROM THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY (IN THE SOUTH
EASTERN QUADRANT), AS SHOWN BY THE LAST MICROWAVE DATA (GMI 1421Z,
WINDSAT 1414Z AND SSMIS 1330Z). GIVEN THAT EVOLUTION, WITH THE LACK
OF RELIABLE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES OR DIRECT MEASURE, INTENSITY IS
LOWERED TO 65KT. ACCORDING TO THE AVAILABLE DATA, HEROLD CENTER
PASSED AROUND 100KM SOUTH-WEST OF RODRIGUES AT 15Z, WHERE MINIMAL
PRESSURE WAS 996HPA (POINT CANON) AND HIGHEST GUSTS WAS 70KT (PLAINE
CORAIL).

HEROLD CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY ON A HEADING OSCILLATING BETWEEN THE
SOUTH-EAST AND THE EAST-SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH GOVERNS ITS TRACK. FROM
WEDNESDAY, HEROLD WILL MOVE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH TO
ITS SOUTH-WEST BEFORE MERGING WITH IT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE
IS STILL SOME GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE ON THIS TRACK.

UNDER THE INCREASING IMPACT OF THE NORTHWEST SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED DRY
AIR INTRUSION, THE RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO KEEP ON GOING. BY
48H THERE SHOULD BE NO LONGER GALE FORCE WIND.

AFTER HEROLD PASSAGE, DUE TO ITS MOVEMENT AND ITS STRUCTURE, WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT IN RODRIGUES.=

>

2020-03-17 18:25

WTIO20 FMEE 171824
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/03/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 021/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/03/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.9 S / 63.5 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY THREE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 80 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/18 AT 06 UTC:
22.4 S / 65.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/03/18 AT 18 UTC:
23.5 S / 67.9 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-03-17 13:14

WTIO31 FMEE 171237
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 21/10/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 17/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 20.2 S / 62.0 E
(VINGT DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 20 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 965 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 80 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 440 SE: 180 SO: 220 NO: 260
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 110 SO: 170 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 60 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 18/03/2020 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 18/03/2020 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 19/03/2020 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 19/03/2020 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
60H: 20/03/2020 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.5- CI=5.5-

UNE PHASE D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT BRUTALE A COMMENCE PEU DE TEMPS APRES LE
PRECEDENT BULLETIN AVEC UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL EVOLUANT EN CENTRE
NOYE SOUS LA MASSE AVEC DES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE RECHAUFFANT
SENSIBLEMENT. L'IMAGERIE EN 88 GHZ DE 0944Z AINSI QUE L'IMAGERIE
VISIBLE DE MSG-1, LAISSENT A PENSER QUE LA SOLIDE STRUCTURE INTERNE
AFFICHEE SUR LES IMAGES DE CE MATIN, A ETE SERIEUSEMENT MIS A MAL PAR
LA DEGRADATION DES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES. L'INTENSITE FINALE A
80 KT TIENT COMPTE DE CE FAIT ET SE PLACE EN-DESSOUS DES ESTIMATIONS
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK.

BIEN QUE L'INCERTITUDE EST PLUS GRANDE SUR LA POSITION DU CENTRE, LE
DEPLACEMENT OSCILLANT ENTRE LE SUD-EST ET L'EST-SUD-EST, RESTE RAPIDE
SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST QUI
GOUVERNE LA TRAJECTOIRE DE HEROLD. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, HEROLD VA
PASSER SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST AU SEIN
DUQUEL IL DEVRAIT DISPARAITRE EN FIN DE SEMAINE. IL Y A TOUJOURS UNE
BONNE CONVERGENCE DES MODELES SUR CE SCENARIO.

SOUS L'IMPACT GRANDISSANT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET
L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT EST
MAINTENANT BIEN CONCRET ET VA SE POURSUIVRE AU COURS DES PROCHAINS
JOURS. HEROLD EST AINSI PREVU DEVENIR UN MINIMUM RESIDUEL D'ICI 48H.

HEROLD VA PASSER A ENVIRON 100 KM AU SUD-OUEST DE RODRIGUES LA NUIT
PROCHAINE. LES VENTS ATTEIGNENT LA FORCE DU COUP DE VENT  (RAFALES A
100-120 KM/H POSSIBLE) ET LA MER EST DANGEREUSE AVEC DES VAGUES DE
PLUS DE 4M. LES CUMULS DE PLUIE SUR 24H NE SERONT PAS SIGNIFICATIFS.
LE SYSTEME S'ELOIGNE DES DEMAIN MATIN.=

>

2020-03-17 13:14

WTIO30 FMEE 171237
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/10/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/17 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 62.0 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 20 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.5/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 440 SE: 180 SW: 220 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 110 SW: 170 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 60 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/18 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 64.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/03/18 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/03/19 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 68.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/03/19 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 70.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
60H: 2020/03/20 00 UTC: 26.3 S / 70.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5- CI=5.5-

A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING TREND HAS STARTED SHORTLY AFTER THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE EYE PATTERN HAS SHIFTED TOWARDS AN EMBEDDED CENTER
PATTERN WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS. 88 GHZ NPP MW IMAGERY ALONG WITH
VISIBLE MSG-1 IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT THE SOLID INNER-CORE SEEN THIS
MORNING HAS BEEN BLOWN BY THE DETERIORATION OF THE ENVIRONEMENTAL
CONDITIONS. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED AT 80 KT TO TAKE INTO
ACCOUNT THAT EFFECT AND IS JUST BELOW SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTILMATES.

THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE CENTER POSITION HAS INCREASED BUT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE RAPIDLY ON A HEADING OSCILLATING BETWEEN THE SOUTH-EAST AND
THE EAST-SOUTH-EAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTHEAST WHICH GOVERNS HEROLD'S TRACK. FROM WEDNESDAY, HEROLD
WILL MOVE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH TO ITS SOUTH-WEST
BEFORE MERGING WITH IT BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS STILL SOME
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GUIDANCE ON THIS TRACK.

UNDER THE INCREASING IMPACT OF THE NORTHWEST SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED DRY
AIR INTRUSION, SUSTAINED WEAKENING IS NOW IN PLACE AND HEROLD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A FILLING UP LOW IN 48 HOURS.

HEROLD IS EXPECTED TO PASS LATER TONIGHT AT AROUND 100 KM TO THE
SOUTH-WEST OF RODRIGUES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
LATER TONIGHT (ASSOCIATED WITH POSSIBLE GUSTS UP TO 100-120 KM/H)
ASSOCIATED WITH DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS (WAVE HEIGHT EXCEEDING 4
METERS). LITTLE RAINFALL AMOUNT ARE EXPECTED. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE AWAY OF THE ISLAND AS SOON AS TOMORROW MORNING.=

>

2020-03-17 12:29

WTIO20 FMEE 171227
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/03/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 020/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/03/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD) 965 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 62.0 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 20 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 190 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/80 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 60 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 95
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 140 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 240 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/18 AT 00 UTC:
21.9 S / 64.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/03/18 AT 12 UTC:
23.1 S / 66.9 E, MAX WIND = 45 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-03-17 08:23

WTXS51 PGTW 170900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 22S SIO 200317073650
2020031706 22S HEROLD     009  01 120 21 SATL 020
T000 191S 0604E 100 R064 025 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 030 SE QD 070 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 210S 0634E 080 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T024 224S 0659E 060 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD
T036 236S 0680E 045 R034 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD
AMP
    012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 009
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z --- NEAR 19.1S 60.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 60.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 21.0S 63.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 22.4S 65.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 23.6S 68.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 61.2E.
17MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
2220031212 143S 540E  25
2220031218 141S 534E  25
2220031300 141S 528E  30
2220031306 143S 524E  35
2220031312 145S 522E  40
2220031318 149S 516E  45
2220031400 151S 511E  55
2220031400 151S 511E  55
2220031406 151S 509E  60
2220031406 151S 509E  60
2220031412 150S 510E  60
2220031412 150S 510E  60
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031700 180S 585E  90
2220031706 191S 604E 100
2220031706 191S 604E 100
2220031706 191S 604E 100
NNNN

>

2020-03-17 08:16

WTXS31 PGTW 170900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 009
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   170600Z --- NEAR 19.1S 60.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 21 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.1S 60.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 21.0S 63.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 22.4S 65.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 23.6S 68.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
170900Z POSITION NEAR 19.6S 61.2E.
17MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
185 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SHARP INTENSIFICATION TREND
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM FORMED AN IRREGULAR 13-NM EYE
DUE TO A SURGE IN POLEWARD OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A JET MAX
PROPAGATING JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. A 170238Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
COMPACT CORE WITH A SMALL MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE EVIDENT.
CONSEQUENTLY, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM ALL AGENCIES (PGTW/KNES/FMEE)
JUMPED TO T5.5 (102 KNOTS) WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY CURRENTLY
ASSESSED AT 100 KNOTS. THE INITIAL WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
BASED ON A BULLSEYE 170541Z ASCAT-B IMAGE. TC 22S IS FORECAST TO
TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED STEERING RIDGE POSITIONED TO
THE NORTH. OVERALL, TRACK UNCERTAINTY REMAINS LOW WITH A TIGHT
CLUSTER OF NUMERICAL MODEL AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE TRACK GUIDANCE THROUGH
TAU 36. TC 22S IS STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT BEGINS TO
INTERACT WITH SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES AND ENCOUNTERS INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25 TO 30 KNOTS). THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) NEAR TAU 12 AND SHOULD COMPLETE STT BY
TAU 36 AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY
FLOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 172100Z AND 180900Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-03-17 07:13

WTIO31 FMEE 170643 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/10/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.1 S / 60.3 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 19 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 957 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 220 SO: 200 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 80 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/03/2020 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 18/03/2020 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 18/03/2020 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 19/03/2020 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 19/03/2020 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 20/03/2020 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5+

>

2020-03-17 07:13

WTIO30 FMEE 170643 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/10/20192020
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 60.3 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 19 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 220 SW: 200 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 80 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/17 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/03/18 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/18 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/03/19 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/03/19 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/03/20 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

>

2020-03-17 07:11

WTIO31 FMEE 170643
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 20/10/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 17/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 19.1 S / 60.3 E
(DIX-NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 19 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 957 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 95 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 220 SO: 200 NO: 270
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 120 SO: 140 NO: 140
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 80 NO: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/03/2020 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 18/03/2020 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 18/03/2020 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 19/03/2020 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 19/03/2020 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
72H: 20/03/2020 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5+

HEROLD A CONTINUE DE S'INTENSIFIER DEPUIS LA FIN DE NUIT AVEC UNE
SIGNATURE SATELLITE A SON MAXIMUM ENTRE 03-04Z. L'INTENSITE A 95 KT
SE BASE SUR DES ANALYSES SUBJECTIVES DE DVORAK (ADT NON FIABLE ET
SATCON NON RE-ACTUALISE) QUI SONT CONVERGENTES A 5.5 A 06Z AVEC
QUELQUES ANALYSES BRUTES A 6.0 AU MEILLEUR DE LA CONFIGURATION.

LE DEPLACEMENT MAINTENANT ETABI AU SUD-EST, S'ACCELERE SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST QUI
GOUVERNE LA TRAJECTOIRE DE HEROLD. LES MODELES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR
LA DIRECTION. LA DISTANCE DE PASSAGE AU PLUS PROCHE DE RODRIGUES ET
MAURICE SE PRECISE A PRESENT. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, HEROLD VA PASSER
SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST AU SEIN DUQUEL IL
DEVRAIT DISPARAITRE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

SOUS L'IMPACT GRANDISSANT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST ET
L'INTRUSION D'AIR SEC EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT
SOUTENU DEVRAIT COMMENCER A SE METTRE EN PLACE AU COURS DES 12
PROCHAINES HEURES.

HEROLD VA PASSER ENTRE 100 ET 200 KM AU SUD-OUEST DE RODRIGUES LA
NUIT PROCHAINE. DEGRADATION RAPIDE A VENIR CET APRES-MIDI AVEC DES
VENTS ATTEIGNANT LA FORCE DU COUP DE VENT LA NUIT PROCHAINE (RAFALES
A 100-120 KM/H) ET UNE MER DANGEREUSE AVEC DES VAGUES DE PLUS DE 4M.
LES PLUIES TEMPORAIREMENT FORTES ET ORAGEUSES NE DURERONT PAS
COMPTE-TENU DE LA VITESSE DE DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME. LES
CUMULS SUR 24H NE DEVRAIENT QUE LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 50 MM EN 24H.
LE SYSTEME S'ELOIGNE DES DEMAIN MATIN.=

>

2020-03-17 07:11

WTIO30 FMEE 170643
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/10/20192020
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/17 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 60.3 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 19 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 957 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 220 SW: 200 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 160 SE: 120 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 80 NW: 70
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/17 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 63.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/03/18 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 65.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/18 18 UTC: 23.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/03/19 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/03/19 18 UTC: 25.8 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2020/03/20 06 UTC: 27.8 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5+

HEROLD HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY SINCE THE END OF THE NIGHT WITH A
PEAK PRESENTATION AROUND 03-04Z. THE INTENSITY OF 95 KT IS BASED ON
CONGRUENT DVORAK ANALYSIS AT 5.5 WITHIN ALL AGENCIES (ADT UNRELIABLE
AND SATCON IS NOT UPDATED) AND SOME RAUW DT NUMBVERS AT 6.0 AT PEAK
CONFIGURATION.

THE FORWARD MOTION REMAINS FAST AND A SOUTH-EASTWARDS HEADING IS NOW
IN PLACE, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MID-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST WHICH GOVERNS HEROLD'S TRACK. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION. THERE IS LESS UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK
AND THE FORECAST CLOSEST DISTANCE TO MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES IS
GETTING RELIABLE. FROM WEDNESDAY, HEROLD WILL MOVE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST BEFORE MERGING WITH IT
BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

UNDER THE INCREASING IMPACT OF THE NORTHWEST SHEAR AND ASSOCIATED DRY
AIR INTRUSION, SUSTAINED WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

HEROLD IS EXPECTED TO PASS LATER TONIGHT BETWEEN 100 AND 200 KM TO
THE SOUTH-WEST OF RODRIGUES. FAST DETERIORATION OF THE WEATHER
CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GALES FORCE WINDS EXPECTED
TO SPREAD LATER TONIGHT (ASSOCIATED GUSTS AT 100-120 KM/H) AND
DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS (WAVE HEIGHT EXCEEDING 4 METERS). HEAVY
RAINFALLS ARE EXPECTED TO LAST NOT VERY LONG WITH DAILY RAINFALLS
ONLY EXPECTED LOCALLY TO EXCEED 50 MM. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
AWAY OF THE ISLAND AS SOON AS TOMORROW MORNING.=

>

2020-03-17 06:35

WTIO20 FMEE 170631 RRA
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/03/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/03/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD) 957 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 60.3 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 19 KT

THREAT AREAS:
300 WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
190 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 145 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

>

2020-03-17 06:33

WTIO20 FMEE 170631
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/03/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 019/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/03/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD) 957 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.1 S / 60.3 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 19 KT

THREAT AREAS:
300 WEATHER WITHIN A 90 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
190 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/95 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 65 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 85 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 110
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 145 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT
AND UP TO 200 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/17 AT 18 UTC:
21.1 S / 63.2 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/03/18 AT 06 UTC:
22.6 S / 65.6 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-03-17 00:52

WTIO31 FMEE 170031 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/10/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 58.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 963 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 330 SO: 280 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SO: 190 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SO: 130 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/03/2020 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 18/03/2020 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 18/03/2020 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 19/03/2020 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 19/03/2020 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 20/03/2020 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

>

2020-03-17 00:52

WTIO30 FMEE 170031 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/10/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 58.4 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/17 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/03/18 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/18 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/03/19 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/03/19 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/03/20 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

>

2020-03-17 00:50

WTIO31 FMEE 170031
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 19/10/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 17/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.9 S / 58.4 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE HUIT DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 18 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 963 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 85 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 330 SO: 280 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SO: 190 NO: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SO: 130 NO: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 90 NO: 90


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/03/2020 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 18/03/2020 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 18/03/2020 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 19/03/2020 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 19/03/2020 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 20/03/2020 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.5-

DEPUIS LES DERNIERES HEURES, UN OEIL ASSEZ FROID S'EST MAINTENU LA
PLUPART DU TEMPS AU SEIN D'UN CDO DE PLUS EN PLUS FROID ET PLUS
GRAND, TRADUISANT QUE L'INTENSIFICATION S'EST POURSUIVI.
 L'INTENSITE A DONC ETE REHAUSSEE A 85KT.

LE DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST S'ACCELERE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST QUI GOUVERNE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE HEROLD. LES MODELES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR LA
DIRECTION. LA DISTANCE DE PASSAGE AU PLUS PROCHE DE RODRIGUES ET
MAURICE SE PRECISE A PRESENT. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, HEROLD VA PASSER
SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST AU SEIN DUQUEL IL
DEVRAIT DISPARAITRE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

LE SYSTEME SEMBLE AVOIR ATTEINT SON MAXIMUM D'INTENSITE.
SOUS L'IMPACT GRANDISSANT DU CISAILLEMENT DE NORD-OUEST,
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT SOUTENU DEVRAIT COMMENCER DANS LES PROCHAINES
HEURES.
 A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER SA TRANSITION
EXTRA-TROPICALE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

SUIVANT LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE ACTUELLE PAR LA SUITE, HEROLD DEVRAIT
PASSER A PLUS DE 200KM DE MAURICE ET 100KM RODRIGUES. COMPTE TENU DES
INCERTITUDES ET DU RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES, LES HABITANTS DE CES ILES
SONT INVITES A SURVEILLER L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-17 00:50

WTIO30 FMEE 170031
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/10/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/17 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 58.4 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 330 SW: 280 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 280 SW: 190 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 130 SE: 170 SW: 130 NW: 130
64 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/17 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 61.7 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/03/18 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/18 12 UTC: 23.3 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/03/19 00 UTC: 24.3 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/03/19 12 UTC: 25.4 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/03/20 00 UTC: 26.9 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5-

FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS, AN ELONGATED EYE QUITE COLD REMAINED FOR THE
MOST PART  WITHIN A COLDER AND COLDER CDO BECOMING LARGER, REFLECTING
THAT THE INTENSIFICATION HAS CONTINUED.
INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 85KT.

THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT ACCELERATES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH GOVERNS HEROLD'S TRACK. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION. THERE IS LESS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND THE FORECAST CLOSEST DISTANCE TO
MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES IS GETTING RELIABLE. FROM WEDNESDAY, HEROLD
WILL MOVE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST
BEFORE MERGING WITH IT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO HAVE REACHED ITS MAXIMUM INTENSITY.
UNDER THE INCREASING IMPACT OF THE NORTHWEST SHEAR, SUSTAINED
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
 AT LONGER RANGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL
TRANSITION BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

FOLLOWING THE RMSC'S TRACK, HEROLD SHOULD PASS MORE THAN 200KM FROM
MAURITIUS AND 100KM FROM RODRIGUES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINS, THE INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED
TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-17 00:30

WTIO22 FMEE 170024
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 17/03/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 018/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 17/03/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD) 963 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.9 S / 58.4 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 18 KT

THREAT AREAS:
300 WEATHER WITHIN A 150 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO
250 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/85 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 100 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 150
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 180 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/17 AT 12 UTC:
20.1 S / 61.7 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/03/18 AT 00 UTC:
21.9 S / 64.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-03-16 20:34

WTXS51 PGTW 162100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 22S SIO 200316194949
2020031618 22S HEROLD     008  01 120 17 SATL 015
T000 168S 0568E 080 R064 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 085 SE QD 075 SW QD 105 NW QD
T012 187S 0600E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 206S 0630E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 219S 0653E 045 R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 232S 0674E 040 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
    036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 008
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 56.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 56.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.7S 60.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 20.6S 63.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 21.9S 65.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 23.2S 67.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 57.6E.
16MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200
NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.
//
2220031212 143S 540E  25
2220031218 141S 534E  25
2220031300 141S 528E  30
2220031306 143S 524E  35
2220031312 145S 522E  40
2220031318 149S 516E  45
2220031400 151S 511E  55
2220031400 151S 511E  55
2220031406 151S 509E  60
2220031406 151S 509E  60
2220031412 150S 510E  60
2220031412 150S 510E  60
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031612 160S 552E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
2220031618 168S 568E  80
NNNN

>

2020-03-16 20:24

WTXS31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 008
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   161800Z --- NEAR 16.8S 56.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 16.8S 56.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.7S 60.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 20.6S 63.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 21.9S 65.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 12 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   181800Z --- 23.2S 67.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 17.3S 57.6E.
16MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE INCLUDING A CLOUD-FILLED 10-NM EYE AS IT BEGAN TO ACCELERATE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE THAT LINED UP WELL WITH A MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 161511Z GPM COLORIZED 36GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80KTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST AND UNDER ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW, ALBEIT, WITH INCREASING (20KTS+) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TC 22S HAS PEAKED INTENSITY AND WILL NOW GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN ADDITION TO THE INCREASING VWS. BY TAU 36, IT WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) AS IT APPROACHES THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND WILL COMPLETE STT BY TAU 48 AS A STORM-FORCE 40KT SUBTROPICAL LOW. NUMERIC MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH SLIGHT VARIATIONS IN ALONG TRACK SPEED AFTER TAU 36, LENDING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z AND 172100Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-03-16 18:28

WTIO31 FMEE 161819 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/10/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 56.7 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 971 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 60 SO: 280 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 170 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/03/2020 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 17/03/2020 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 18/03/2020 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 18/03/2020 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 19/03/2020 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 19/03/2020 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/03/2020 18 UTC: 29.2 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

>

2020-03-16 18:28

WTIO30 FMEE 161819 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/10/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 56.7 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 971 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 60 SW: 280 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 170 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/17 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/03/17 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/03/18 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/03/18 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/03/19 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/03/19 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/20 18 UTC: 29.2 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

>

2020-03-16 18:26

WTIO31 FMEE 161819
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/10/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 16/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.7 S / 56.7 E
(SEIZE DEGRES SEPT SUD ET CINQUANTE SIX DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 16 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 971 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 75 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 60 SO: 280 NO: 280
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SO: 170 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 70


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/03/2020 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 17/03/2020 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 18/03/2020 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 18/03/2020 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 19/03/2020 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 19/03/2020 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/03/2020 18 UTC: 29.2 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=5.0-

DEPUIS LES DERNIERES HEURES, UN OEIL ALLONGA   ASSEZ FROID SEMBLE
VOULOIR SE MAINTENIR AU SEIN D'UN CDO TRES FROID, TRADUISANT UNE
LEGERE INTENSIFICATION.
L'IMAGE GMI DE 1511Z CONFIRME QUE LA STRUCTURE DE BASSE COUCHES
SEMBLE BIEN DEFINIE MAIS LA STRUCTURE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PEINE A
SE CONSOLIDER, AVEC UN OEIL TRES A VASA , ET UN LEGER TILT VERS LE
NORD-EST.
 L'INTENSITE A DONC ETE REHAUSSEE A 75KT.

LE DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST S'ACCELERE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST QUI GOUVERNE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE HEROLD. LES MODELES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR LA
DIRECTION. LA DISTANCE DE PASSAGE AU PLUS PROCHE DE RODRIGUES ET
MAURICE SE PRECISE A PRESENT. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, HEROLD VA PASSER
SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST AU SEIN DUQUEL IL
DEVRAIT DISPARAITRE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE ENCORE ASSEZ INCERTAINE DURANT LES
PROCHAINES 24H AU VU DES TENDANCES OPPOSEES SE RENFORCANT
SIMULTANEMENT. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES (IFS AND GFS) ENVISAGENT UN
IMPACT DU CISAILLEMENT GRANDISSANT DES LA NUIT PROCHAINE, MAIS AROME
CONTINUE DE PROPOSER UNE RESISTANCE DU SYSTEME A LA DEGRADATION DE
SON ENVIRONEMENT GRACE A SON DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE ET LA DIVERGENCE. AU
VU DE L'EVOLUTION OBSERVEE, UNE INTENSIFICATION RESTE ENCORE POSSIBLE
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES AVANT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SOUTENUE DES
DEMAIN MATIN. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER SA
TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

SUIVANT LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE ACTUELLE PAR LA SUITE, HEROLD DEVRAIT
PASSER A PLUS DE 200KM DE MAURICE ET A PRES DE 80KM RODRIGUES. COMPTE
TENU DES INCERTITUDES ET DU RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES, LES HABITANTS DE
CES ILES SONT INVITES A SURVEILLER L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-16 18:26

WTIO30 FMEE 161819
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/10/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/16 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 56.7 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 971 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 60 SW: 280 NW: 280
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 130 SW: 170 NW: 170
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 70


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/17 06 UTC: 18.6 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/03/17 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/03/18 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/03/18 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/03/19 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/03/19 18 UTC: 25.3 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/20 18 UTC: 29.2 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

FOR THE LAST FEW HOURS, AN ELONGATED EYE QUITE COLD SEEMS TO WANT TO
KEEP ITSELF WITHIN A VERY COLD CDO, REFLECTING A SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION.
 1511Z GMI MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE LOWER LEVEL CORE SEEMS BETTER
DEFINED, BUT THE EYE IN MID-LEVELS IS NOT WELL DEFINED, WITH AN
EVASING EYE, AND A SLIGHT NORTHEASTWARD TILT.
INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 75KT.

THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT ACCELERATES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH GOVERNS HEROLD'S TRACK. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION. THERE IS LESS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND THE FORECAST CLOSEST DISTANCE TO
MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES IS GETTING RELIABLE. FROM WEDNESDAY, HEROLD
WILL MOVE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST
BEFORE MERGING WITH IT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AT SHORT RANGE GIVEN
OPPOSITE TRENDS IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
(IFS AND GFS) SUGGEST A INCREASING IMPACT OF THE SHEAR FROM TONIGHT.
BUT AROME SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WHILE ACCELERATING COULD BENEFIT
FROM ITS MOVEMENT AND THE DIVERGENCE AND REMAIN STRONG UP TO
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND, A DEPEENING IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT HOURS BEFORE A SUSTAINED WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW. AT LONGER
RANGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

FOLLOWING THE RMSC'S TRACK, HEROLD SHOULD PASS MORE THAN 200KM FROM
MAURITIUS AND AROUND 80KM FROM RODRIGUES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND
THE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINS, THE INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE
INVITED TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-16 18:16

WTIO22 FMEE 161814
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/03/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 017/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/03/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD) 971 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.7 S / 56.7 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY SIX    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 16 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 110 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE WESTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/75 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 40 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 70 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE WESTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 30
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 150 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/17 AT 06 UTC:
18.6 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/03/17 AT 18 UTC:
20.4 S / 62.9 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-03-16 13:30

WTIO31 FMEE 161253 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/10/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 55.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/03/2020 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 17/03/2020 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 18/03/2020 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 18/03/2020 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 19/03/2020 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 19/03/2020 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/03/2020 12 UTC: 29.6 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5+

>

2020-03-16 13:30

WTIO30 FMEE 161253 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/10/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 55.1 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/17 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/03/17 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/18 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/03/18 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/03/19 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/03/19 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/20 12 UTC: 29.6 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

>

2020-03-16 13:27

WTIO31 FMEE 161253
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 17/10/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 16.0 S / 55.1 E
(SEIZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE CINQ DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 130 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 17/03/2020 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 17/03/2020 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 18/03/2020 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 18/03/2020 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
60H: 19/03/2020 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 19/03/2020 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/03/2020 12 UTC: 29.6 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5+

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE HEROLD A ETE TRES FLUCTUANTE AU COURS
DES DERNIERES HEURES AVEC LA PRESENCE D'UN OEIL NOTAMMENT AVANT 9Z.
DEPUIS L'OEIL PEINE A SE RECONSTITUER EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE. LES
ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SUBJECTIVES ONT OSCILLE ENTRE 4.5 ET 5.0. L'IMAGE
AMSR2 DE 0953Z MONTRE QUE LA STRUCTURE DE BASSE COUCHES SEMBLE MIEUX
DEFINIE QUE CE MATIN MAIS LA STRUCTURE EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE PEINE A
SE CONSOLIDER. CE QUI POURRAIT EXPLIQUER LES FLUCTUATIONS EN IMAGERIE
CLASSIQUE. LES OBSERVATIONS AU SOL DE TROMELIN NE PLAIDENT CEPENDANT
PAS POUR UNE INTENSITE PROCHE DU STADE INTENSE AVEC SEULEMENT 82KT EN
RAFALE MAXIMALE ET 979HPA DE PRESSION MINIMALE (A 09Z). LE CENTRE EST
D'AILLEURS PROBABLEMENT PASSE A MOINS D'UNE DIZAINE DE KILOMETRE DE
L'ILOT. L'INTENSITE A DONC ETE REHAUSSEE A 70KT.

LE DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST S'ACCELERE SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST QUI GOUVERNE LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE HEROLD. LES MODELES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR LA
DIRECTION. LA DISTANCE DE PASSAGE AU PLUS PROCHE DE RODRIGUES ET
MAURICE SE PRECISE A PRESENT. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, HEROLD VA PASSER
SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN PROFOND THALWEG AU SUD-OUEST AU SEIN DUQUEL IL
DEVRAIT DISPARAITRE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE RESTE ENCORE ASSEZ INCERTAINE DURANT LES
PROCHAINES 24H AU VU DES TENDANCES OPPOSEES SE RENFORCANT
SIMULTANEMENT. LES MODELES NUMERIQUES (IFS AND GFS) ENVISAGENT UN
IMPACT DU CISAILLEMENT GRANDISSANT DES LA NUIT PROCHAINE, MAIS AROME
CONTINUE DE PROPOSER UNE RESISTANCE DU SYSTEME A LA DEGRADATION DE
SON ENVIRONEMENT GRACE A SON DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE ET LA DIVERGENCE. AU
VU DE L'EVOLUTION OBSERVEE, UNE INTENSIFICATION RESTE ENCORE POSSIBLE
DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES AVANT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SOUTENUE DES
DEMAIN MATIN. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER SA
TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

SUIVANT LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE ACTUELLE PAR LA SUITE, HEROLD DEVRAIT
PASSER A ENVIRON 200KM DE MAURICE ET 100KM RODRIGUES. COMPTE TENU DES
INCERTITUDES ET DU RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES, LES HABITANTS DE CES ILES
SONT INVITES A SURVEILLER L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-16 13:27

WTIO30 FMEE 161253
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/10/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/16 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 55.1 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/17 00 UTC: 17.7 S / 58.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/03/17 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/18 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 64.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/03/18 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/03/19 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 68.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/03/19 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 69.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/20 12 UTC: 29.6 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

HEROLD CLOUD PATTERN WAS FLUCTUATING OVER THE LAST HOURS WITH THE
PRESENCE OF AN EYE ESPECIALLY BEFORE 9Z. SINCE, THE EYE CAN HARDLY BE
SEEN IN CLASSICAL IMAGERY. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE RANGING
BETWEEN 4.5 AND 5.0. 0953Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THAT THE LOWER
LEVEL CORE SEEMS BETTER DEFINED THAN EARLIER. BUT THE EYE IN
MID-LEVELS IS NOT WELL DEFINED. THAT COULD EXPLAIN HEROLD
DIFFICULTIES IN BUILDING AN EYE IN INFRARED. TROMELIN GROUND DATA
HOWEVER DO NOT SUGGEST AN INTENSITY CLOSE TO THE INTENSE STAGE WITH
82KT AS THE STRONGEST GUST AND 979HPA FOR MINIMAL PRESSURE (09Z). THE
CENTER PROBABLY PASSED LESS THAN A DOZEN KILOMETERS AWAY FROM THE
ISLAND. INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 70KT.

THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT ACCELERATES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH GOVERNS HEROLD'S TRACK. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION. THERE IS LESS
UNCERTAINTY ON THE TRACK AND THE FORECAST CLOSEST DISTANCE TO
MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES IS GETTING RELIABLE. FROM WEDNESDAY, HEROLD
WILL MOVE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH TO THE SOUTH-WEST
BEFORE MERGING WITH IT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS STILL QUITE UNCERTAIN AT SHORT RANGE GIVEN
OPPOSITE TRENDS IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
(IFS AND GFS) SUGGEST A INCREASING IMPACT OF THE SHEAR FROM TONIGHT.
BUT AROME SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WHILE ACCELERATING COULD BENEFIT
FROM ITS MOVEMENT AND THE DIVERGENCE AND REMAIN STRONG UP TO
WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE RECENT TREND, A DEPEENING IS FORECAST FOR THE
NEXT HOURS BEFORE A SUSTAINED WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW. AT LONGER
RANGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY THE
END OF THE WEEK.

FOLLOWING THE RMSC'S TRACK, HEROLD SHOULD PASS AROUND 200KM FROM
MAURITIUS AND 100KM FROM RODRIGUES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINS, THE INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED
TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-16 12:22

WTIO22 FMEE 161221
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/03/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 016/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/03/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0 S / 55.1 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FIVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/17 AT 00 UTC:
17.7 S / 58.1 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/03/17 AT 12 UTC:
19.6 S / 61.4 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-03-16 08:46

WTXS51 PGTW 160900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 22S SIO 200316082028
2020031606 22S HEROLD     007  01 105 09 SATL 030
T000 157S 0542E 080 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 055 SE QD 075 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 170S 0569E 090 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD
T024 186S 0598E 080 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 205S 0628E 065 R064 015 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD
T048 220S 0650E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD
T072 242S 0685E 045 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD
AMP
    048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
    072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 54.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 54.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 17.0S 56.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.6S 59.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 20.5S 62.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 22.0S 65.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 24.2S 68.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 54.9E.
16MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
2220031212 143S 540E  25
2220031218 141S 534E  25
2220031300 141S 528E  30
2220031306 143S 524E  35
2220031312 145S 522E  40
2220031318 149S 516E  45
2220031400 151S 511E  55
2220031400 151S 511E  55
2220031406 151S 509E  60
2220031406 151S 509E  60
2220031412 150S 510E  60
2220031412 150S 510E  60
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031418 149S 512E  65
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031500 151S 513E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031506 150S 517E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031512 152S 521E  70
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031518 153S 527E  80
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031600 155S 533E  75
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031606 157S 542E  80
2220031606 157S 542E  80
NNNN

>

2020-03-16 08:45

WTXS31 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 22S (HEROLD) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   160600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 54.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 54.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   161800Z --- 17.0S 56.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   170600Z --- 18.6S 59.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   171800Z --- 20.5S 62.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   180600Z --- 22.0S 65.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   190600Z --- 24.2S 68.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 16.0S 54.9E.
16MAR20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 22S (HEROLD), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
295 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ST DENIS, LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING
AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). WARMING CLOUD TOPS
OBSERVED IN ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY SUGGEST THAT TC 22S IS TRYING
TO FORM A NEW EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THIS DEVELOPING EYE AND SUPPORTED BY A TIMELY
160601Z METOP-B BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS. OF NOTE, TC 22S FORMED AN EYE
SHORTLY AFTER SYNOPTIC TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 80 KTS IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
OF T4.5 (77 KTS) BY PGTW, KNES, AND FMEE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
ESTABLISHED POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (5-10 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO AN OVERALL FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 22S HAS CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE EASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE
NORTHEAST. UNDER ITS STEERING INFLUENCE, THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 AND THEN SHIFT TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH TAU 12, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF PERIOD
OF INTENSIFICATION TO A PEAK OF 90 KTS. AFTERWARDS, INCREASING VWS
AND COOLING SST WILL STEADILY WEAKEN TC 22S FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION (STT) SHOULD BEGIN AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS AROUND TAU 48 AND BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. STT COMPLETION IS ANTICIPATED BY TAU 72.
NUMERICAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO SLIGHTLY BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
LATEST RUN, WITH ONLY 100 NM CROSS-TRACK SPREAD BY TAU 72. NOTABLY,
THE NAVGEM SOLUTION DEPICTS A SLOWER TRACK SPEED FOR THE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER, THERE IS MINIMAL ALONG-TRACK SPREAD BETWEEN THE OTHER
MODELS. THEREFORE, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST WHICH IS PLACED NEAR AND SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 26 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z AND 170900Z.//
NNNN

>

2020-03-16 07:46

WTIO31 FMEE 160653 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/10/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 16/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 54.1 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/03/2020 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 17/03/2020 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 17/03/2020 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 18/03/2020 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 18/03/2020 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 19/03/2020 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/03/2020 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

>

2020-03-16 07:46

WTIO30 FMEE 160653 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/10/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 54.1 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/16 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/03/17 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/17 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/03/18 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/03/18 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/03/19 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/20 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

>

2020-03-16 07:43

WTIO31 FMEE 160653
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 16/10/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 16/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.6 S / 54.1 E
(QUINZE DEGRES SIX SUD ET CINQUANTE QUATRE DEGRES UN EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 8 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 972 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 190 SO: 190 NO: 190
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SO: 50 NO: 50


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/03/2020 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 17/03/2020 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 17/03/2020 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 18/03/2020 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
60H: 18/03/2020 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
72H: 19/03/2020 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/03/2020 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE HEROLD A EVOLUE RECEMMENT AVEC LE RETOUR
D'UN OEIL EN IMAGERIE CLASSIQUE NOTAMMENT DURANT LA DERNIERE HEURE.
LES SOMMETS CONVECTIFS AU SEIN DU CDO SONT RESTES ASSEZ FROIDS. LES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES DE LA NUIT ET DE CE MATIN TEMOIGNENT DE LA
PERSISTANCE D'UNE FAIBLESSE DANS LE SECTEUR NORD-EST DU MUR
PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC LA PRESENCE D'UNE FAIBLE CONTRAINTE DE
NORD-OUEST (DECALAGE ENTRE L'OEIL EN 37 ET 89GHZ). LES ANALYSES
DVORAK SUBJECTIVES SONT RESTES RELATIVES PROCHE DE 4.0 CES DERNIERES
HEURES. PARMI LES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES, ON RETROUVE UNE PLUS GRANDE
DISPERSION ALLANT DE 56KT POUR LA PASSE SMAP DE 0214Z A  70KT POUR LE
SATCON. AU VU DES CES ESTIMATIONS ET DE L'EVOLUTION RECENTE
L'INTENSITE EST ABAISSE A 65KT MEME SI CETTE ESTIMATION EST PEUT ETRE
UN PEU ELEVEE. LA POSITION DU SYSTEME A ETE RECALE PAR RAPPORT AUX
DERNIERES OBSERVATIONS MICRO-ONDES. POUR INFORMATION A 07Z ON RELEVE
A TROMELIN (50 KM AU SUD-EST DU CENTRE), 50KT EN VENT MOYEN, 75KT EN
RAFALES ET 987HPA.

LE DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST SE POURSUIT ET VA S'ACCELERER SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST QUI
GOUVERNE MAINTENANT TOTALEMENT LA TRAJECTOIRE DE HEROLD. LES MODELES
SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR LA DIRECTION. NEANMOINS A L'IMAGE DU DECALAGE
VERS L'EST DE CES DERNIERES HEURES, LA DISTANCE DE PASSAGE AU PLUS DE
RODRIGUES ET MAURICE EST ENCORE UN PEU INCERTAINE. A PARTIR DE
MERCREDI, HEROLD VA PASSER SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UN PROFOND THALWEG AU
SUD-OUEST AU SEIN DUQUEL IL DEVRAIT DISPARAITRE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE EST ASSEZ INCERTAINE DURANT LES PROCHAINES
24H AU VU DES TENDANCES OPPOSEES SE RENFORCANT SIMULTANEMENT. LES
MODELES NUMERIQUES (IFS AND GFS) ENVISAGENT UN IMPACT DU CISAILLEMENT
DES LA NUIT PROCHAINE A L'EXCEPTION D'AROME QUI NE PROPOSE PAS
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT AVEC DEMAIN SOIR, GRACE AU DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE ET LA
DIVERGENCE. AU VU DE LA TENDANCE RECENTE, UNE INTENSIFICATION DANS
LES PROCHAINES HEURES EST ENVISAGEE AVANT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT SOUTENUE
DES DEMAIN MATIN. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
COMMENCER SA TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

SUIVANT LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE ACTUELLE PAR LA SUITE, HEROLD DEVRAIT
PASSER A ENVIRON 200KM DE MAURICE ET 100KM RODRIGUES. COMPTE TENU DES
INCERTITUDE ET DU RISQUE DE FORTES PLUIES, LES HABITANTS DE CES ILES
SONT INVITES A SURVEILLER L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-16 07:43

WTIO30 FMEE 160653
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/10/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/16 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 54.1 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 972 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 65 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 41 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/16 18 UTC: 17.0 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/03/17 06 UTC: 18.9 S / 60.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/17 18 UTC: 20.8 S / 62.8 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/03/18 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2020/03/18 18 UTC: 23.5 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/03/19 06 UTC: 24.9 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/20 06 UTC: 29.0 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0+ CI=4.5-

HEROLD CLOUD PATTERN EVOLVED RECENTLY, WITH THE COME BACK OF AN EYE
IN CLASSIC IMAGERY ESPECIALLY IN THE LAST HOURS. CONVECTIVE CLOUD
TOPS ARE RATHER COLD WITHIN THE CDO. OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING
MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE PERSISTENCE OH A WEAKNESS IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN SIDE OF THE EYEWALL PROBABLY IN RELATION WITH A WEAK
NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR (TILT BETWEEN THE 37 AND 89GHZ EYE). SUBJECTIVE
DVORAK ANALYSIS ARE AROUND 4.0. AMONG OBJECTIVES ESTIMATES, THERE IS
STRONGER SPREAD FROM 56KT ON THE 0214Z SMAP SWATH AND  70KT FOR
SATCON. GIVEN THIS ESTIMATES, AND THE RECENT TREND, INITIAL INTENSITY
IS SET TO 65KT EVEN IF IT COULD BE LOWER. POSITION WAS SHIFTED NORTH
WITH MICROWAVES. TROMELIN GROUND DATA AT 07Z (50 KM SOUTH-EAST FROM
THE CENTER) : 987HPA, 50KT MEAN WINDS AND 75KT GUSTS.

THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT CONTINUES AND WILL ACCELERATE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE MID-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH NOW
COMPLETELY GOVERNS HEROLD'S TRACK. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON THE DIRECTION BUT WITH UNCERTAINTY AT SHORT RANGE (LAST HOURS
EASTERLY SHIFT) IT IS STILL DIFFICULT TO GIVE A RELIABLE FORECAST OF
THE CLOSER DISTANCE TO MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES. FROM WEDNESDAY,
HEROLD WILL MOVE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP TROUGH TO THE
SOUTH-WEST BEFORE MERGING WITH IT BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS QUITE UNCERTAIN AT SHORT RANGE GIVEN
OPPOSITE TRENDS IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
(IFS AND GFS) SUGGEST A STRONG IMPACT OF THE SHEAR FROM TONIGHT. BUT
AROME SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM WHILE ACCELERATING COULD BENEFIT FROM
ITS MOVEMENT AND THE DIVERGENCE AND REMAIN STRONG UP TO WEDNESDAY.
GIVEN THE RECENT TREND, A DEPEENING IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT HOURS
BEFORE A SUSTAINED WEAKENING FROM TOMORROW. AT LONGER RANGE, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.

FOLLOWING THE RMSC'S TRACK, HEROLD SHOULD PASS AROUND 200KM FROM
MAURITIUS AND 100KM FROM RODRIGUES. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND THE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINS, THE INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED
TO MONITOR CLOSELY THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-16 06:32

WTIO22 FMEE 160627
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/03/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 015/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/03/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD) 972 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.6 S / 54.1 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY FOUR    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 8 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
25 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 35 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 60 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 100
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 130 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/16 AT 18 UTC:
17.0 S / 57.0 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/03/17 AT 06 UTC:
18.9 S / 60.0 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-03-16 00:36

WTIO31 FMEE 160012 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/10/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 16/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 53.4 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/03/2020 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 17/03/2020 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 17/03/2020 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 18/03/2020 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 18/03/2020 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 19/03/2020 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/03/2020 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 21/03/2020 00 UTC: 33.8 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

>

2020-03-16 00:36

WTIO30 FMEE 160012 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/10/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 53.4 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/16 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/03/17 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/17 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/18 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/18 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/03/19 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/20 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/21 00 UTC: 33.8 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

>

2020-03-16 00:34

WTIO31 FMEE 160012
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/10/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 16/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.9 S / 53.4 E
(QUINZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE TROIS DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 7 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 970 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 70 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 50 NO: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SO: 30 NO: 30


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/03/2020 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 17/03/2020 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
36H: 17/03/2020 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 18/03/2020 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 18/03/2020 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
72H: 19/03/2020 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/03/2020 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 21/03/2020 00 UTC: 33.8 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5

LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE DE HEROLD A CHANGE AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES
HEURES : D'UNE CONFIGURATION EN OEIL SE STRUCTURANT, LE SYSTEME A
EVOLUE AVEC L'APPARITION D'UNE BANDE DANS LE SECTEUR EST GENANT
PROGRESSIVEMENT L'ALLURE DE L'OEIL. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES
INFRA-ROUGE, HEROLD EVOLUE PROGRESSIVEMENT VERS UNE CONFIGURATION EN
CDO (CENTRE NOYE DANS LA MASSE), FAISANT DISPARAITRE L'OEIL.
L'ANALYSE DVORAK RESTE TOUTEFOIS A 4.5 DU FAIT DE LA PRESENCE DE LA
BANDE DANS LE SECTEUR EST, AVEC UNE ESTIMATION DES VENTS DE L'ORDRE
DE 70KT.

LE DEPLACEMENT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST SE POURSUIT. TOUT D'ABORD LENT, CE
DEPLACEMENT VA S'ACCELERER SOUS L'INFLUENCE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE AU NORD-EST QUI GOUVERNE MAINTENANT TOTALEMENT LA
TRAJECTOIRE DE HEROLD. LES MODELES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR LA
DIRECTION MAIS IL RESTE TOUJOURS DES DIFFERENCES LONGITUDINALES
ENCORE MARQUEES ("ALONG-TRACK"), BIEN QUE CELLES-CI DIMINUENT AU FIL
DES RESEAUX. A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE SECONDE
DORSALE A L'EST, LE SYSTEME CONTINUE VERS LE SUD-EST, A L'AVANT D'UN
TALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES RESTENT TOTALEMENT FAVORABLES AU
RENFORCEMENT DU SYSTEME. EN SE DEPLACANT, HEROLD SE PLACE DE NOUVEAU
DANS UN CONTEXTE A POTENTIEL ENERGETIQUE SUFFISANT. L'ENSEMBLE DES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES PREVOIENT UN CREUSEMENT REGULIER ET RAPIDE DE
CE SYSTEME AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 30H. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE
D'UN NOUVEAU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST CAUSE L'APPARITION PUIS
LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LE
SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR A PARTIR DE MARDI, LENTEMENT DANS
UN PREMIER TEMPS EN RAISON DU DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME, PUIS
PLUS FRANCHEMENT AVANT DE PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT
TROPICALES. A PLUS LONGUE ECHEANCE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT COMMENCER SA
TRANSITION EXTRA-TROPICALE EN FIN DE SEMAINE.

SUIVANT LA TRAJECTOIRE PREVUE PAR LE CMRS, HEROLD DEVRAIT PASSER A
PROXIMITE IMMEDIATE DE L'ILOT FRANCAIS TROMELIN EN FIN DE MATINEE.
PAR LA SUITE, HEROLD CONTINUE SA TRAJECTOIRE LE FAISANT PASSER A
PROXIMITE DES ILES MAURICE ET RODRIGUES, A UNE DISTANCE INFERIEURE A
200KM. LES HABITANTS DE CES ILES SONT INVITES A SURVEILLER
L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-16 00:34

WTIO30 FMEE 160012
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/10/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 53.4 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/16 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 55.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/03/17 00 UTC: 18.1 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/17 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 60.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/18 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 62.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/18 12 UTC: 22.9 S / 65.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/03/19 00 UTC: 24.1 S / 67.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/20 00 UTC: 28.0 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/21 00 UTC: 33.8 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5

HEROLD'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS: FROM A
STRUCTURED EYE PATTERN, THE SYSTEM HAS EVOLVED WITH THE APPEARANCE OF
A BAND IN THE EASTERN SECTOR, GRADUALLY DISRUPTING THE SHAPE OF THE
EYE. ON THE LAST INFRA-RED DATA, HEROLD EVOLVES PROGRESSIVELY TOWARDS
A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) PATTERN, MAKING THE EYE DISAPPEAR. THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS REMAINS HOWEVER AT 4.5 BECAUSE OF THE PRESENCE OF THE
CONVECTIVE BAND IN THE EASTERN SECTOR, WITH A WIND ESTIMATE OF ABOUT
70KT.

THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD SHIFT CONTINUES. INITIALLY SLOW, THIS
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT WILL ACCELERATE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE MID-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH NOW COMPLETELY GOVERNS
HEROLD'S TRACK. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION BUT
THERE ARE STILL MARKED ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCE, BUT THOSE ARE WEAKER
THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. FROM WEDNESDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
SECOND RIDGE TO THE EAST, THE SYSTEM CONTINUES SOUTH-EASTWARDS, AHEAD
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.

THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FULLY FAVOURABLE FOR THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. WITH THE RESUMPTION OF THE MOVEMENT,
HEROLD IS GRADUALLY PLACING ITSELF IN A CONTEXT WHERE THE ENERGY
POTENTIAL IS SUFFICIENT. ALL AVAILABLE GUIDANCES FORESEE A REGULAR
AND RAPID DEEPENING OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. FROM
MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST
DRIVES THE STRENGTHENING OF A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICALE WINDSHEAR. THE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN WEAKEN FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS, SLOWLY AT FIRST DUE
TO THE RAPID DISPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, THEN MORE FRANKLY BEFORE
LOSING ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. IN THE LONGER TERM, THE
SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN ITS EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION AT THE END OF THE
WEEK.

FOLLOWING THE RMSC'S TRACK, HEROLD SHOULD PASS IN THE IMMEDIATE
VICINITY OF THE FRENCH ISLAND TROMELIN AT THE END OF THE MORNING.
THEREAFTER, HEROLD CONTINUES HIS TRACK PASSING CLOSE TO THE MAURITIUS
AND RODRIGUES ISLANDS, AT A DISTANCE OF LESS THAN 200KM. THE
INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-16 00:04

WTIO22 FMEE 160000
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 16/03/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 014/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 16/03/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD) 970 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.9 S / 53.4 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY THREE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 100 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 180 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65/70 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS
WITHIN A 15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/16 AT 12 UTC:
16.7 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/03/17 AT 00 UTC:
18.1 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND = 95 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-03-15 18:08

WTIO22 FMEE 151804
PANPAN
HURRICANE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 013/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

HURRICANE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/03/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HEROLD) 975 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.4 S / 52.5 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 130 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 170 NM IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS 65 KT AND VERY HIGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN A
15 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
STORM FORCE WINDS 50/60 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 25 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 35 NM IN THE EASTERN
SEMI-CIRCLE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/16 AT 06 UTC:
16.1 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND = 75 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/03/16 AT 18 UTC:
17.2 S / 56.6 E, MAX WIND = 90 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-03-15 13:14

WTIO31 FMEE 151310 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/10/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 52.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 80 SE:  SO:  NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/03/2020 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 16/03/2020 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 17/03/2020 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 17/03/2020 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 18/03/2020 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 18/03/2020 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/03/2020 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 20/03/2020 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.0

>

2020-03-15 13:14

WTIO30 FMEE 151310 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 52.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 80 SE:  SW:  NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/16 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/03/16 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/17 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/17 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/18 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/18 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/19 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/20 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.0

>

2020-03-15 13:11

WTIO31 FMEE 151310
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 13/10/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 15/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 15 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 52.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE DEUX DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SO: 150 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 90 SO: 70 NO: 70
48 KT NE: 80 SE:  SO:  NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 16/03/2020 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 16/03/2020 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 17/03/2020 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 17/03/2020 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 18/03/2020 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 18/03/2020 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/03/2020 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 20/03/2020 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, APRES UN EFFONDREMENT DU COEUR DU
SYSTEME, SUITE A UN MANQUE ENERGETIQUE, CELUI CI SEMBLE VOULOIR SE
RECONSTRUIRE EN PRESENTANT UN GRAND OEIL IRRIGULIER AU CENTRE D'UN
CDO AUX SOMMETS NUAGEUX ENCORE RELATIVEMENT CHAUDS DEPUIS LA DERNIERE
HEURE. LE DEPLACEMENT QUI A REPRIS EN DIRECTION DE L'EST SUD-EST ET
QUI EST PREVU SE POURSUIVRE, DEVRAIT PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME DE
RETROUVER DES EAUX PLUS FAVORABLES. CE QUI DEVRAIT PERMETTRE LA
CONSOLIDATION DU COEUR ET L'INTENSIFICATION DU SYSTEME.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : UN DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT
EN DIRECTION DE L'EST SUD-EST SEMBLE SE CONFIRMER, SUITE A
L'AFFAIBLISSEMENT DE LA DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST, ET SOUS
L'INFLUENCE DE L'AUTRE DORSALE AU NORD-EST.
HEROLD CONTINUE DE S'ELOIGNER DES COTES MALGACHES AUJOURD'HUI, A PRES
DE 150KM. CETTE NUIT, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ACCELERER EN DIRECTION DU
SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPO
AU NORD-EST. IL RESTE DES DIFFERENCES LONGITUDINALES ("ALONG-TRACK")
ENTRE LES MODELES, MAIS CELLES-CI SONT MOINS MARQUEES QUE DANS LES
RESEAUX PRECEDENTS.
A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE SECONDE DORSALE A L'EST,
LE SYSTEME CONTINUE VERS LE SUD-EST, A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

COTE ATMOSPHERIQUE, LES CONDITIONS SONT FAVORABLES AU RENFORCEMENT DU
SYSTEME. DES CE SOIR, AVEC LA REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT, L'ENSEMBLE DES
GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES PREVOIENT UN CREUSEMENT REGULIER DE CE SYSTEME
JUSQU'A LUNDI SOIR.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU
SUD-OUEST CAUSE L'APPARITION PUIS LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR
A PARTIR DE MARDI, LENTEMENT DANS UN PREMIER TEMPS EN RAISON DU
DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE DU SYSTEME, PUIS PLUS FRANCHEMENT AVANT DE PERDRE
SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES.

EN RAISON DE L'ELOIGNEMENT DU SYSTEME, L'IMPACT SUR LE COTE EST
MALGACHE SE REDUIT. DES PLUIES TOUCHENT ENCORE CETTE NUIT LA
PENINSULE DE MASOALA, AVEC DES RAFALES DE L'ORDRE DE 60/80LM/H SUR
LES ZONES COTIERES. CES VENTS POURRONT GENERER DE LA SURCOTE DE
L'ORDRE DE 20 CM SUR LES COTES EXPOSEES (NOTAMMENT DANS LE FOND DE LA
BAIE D'ANTONGIL).

EN FIN DE WEEK-END ET DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES HABITANTS DES
MASCAREIGNES ET EN PARTICULIER CEUX DES ILES MAURICE ET RODRIGUES
SONT INVITES A SURVEILLER L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-15 13:11

WTIO30 FMEE 151310
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 52.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 200 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 90 SW: 70 NW: 70
48 KT NE: 80 SE:  SW:  NW:


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/16 00 UTC: 15.7 S / 53.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/03/16 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 55.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/17 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/17 12 UTC: 20.0 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/18 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 63.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/18 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 65.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/19 12 UTC: 25.7 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/20 12 UTC: 29.9 S / 72.3 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, AFTER THE SYSTEM CORE COLLAPSED DUE TO A LACK OF
OCEANIC ENERGY, THIS ONE SEEMS TO WANT TO REBUILD ITSELF BY
PRESENTING A LARGE IRREGULAR EYE IN THE CENTER OF A CDO WITH CLOUD
TOPS STILL RELATIVELY WARM FROM THE LAST HOUR.
 THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE, SHOULD
ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO RETURN TO MORE FAVOURABLE WATERS. WHICH SHOULD
ALLOW THE CORE TO BE CONSOLIDATED AND THE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE
INTENSIFYING.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE TRACK FORECAST :A VERY SLOW
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT SEEMS TO BE CONFIRMED, FOLLOWING THE
WEAKENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST, AND UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE OTHER RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
HEROLD CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MALAGASY COAST TODAY, ALMOST
150KM AWAY.OVERNIGHT, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
SOUTH-EASTWARD UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE NORTH-EAST. SOME ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS REMAIN,
BUT THOSE ARE WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
FROM WEDNESDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SECOND RIDGE IN THE EAST,
THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION.
FROM THIS EVENING, WITH THE RESUMPTION OF THE MOVEMENT, ALL THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCES FORESEE A REGULAR DIGGING OF THIS SYSTEM UNTIL
MONDAY EVENING.
FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST DRIVES THE STRENGTHENING OF A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THUS WEAKEN FROM TUESDAY, SLOWLY AT
FIRST DUE TO THE RAPID DISPLACEMENT OF THE SYSTEM, THEN MORE FRANKLY
BEFORE LOOSING ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

DUE TO THE REMOTENESS OF THE SYSTEM, THE IMPACT ON THE MALAGASY COAST
IS REDUCED. RAINS STILL HIT THE MASOALA PENINSULA TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS
OF ABOUT 60/80KM/H ON THE COASTAL AREAS. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
CAUSE SOME MINOR STORM SURGE (20 CM) IN SOME EXPOSED AREAS, SUCH AS
ANTONGIL BAY.

AT THE END OF THE WEEK-END AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE INHABITANTS OF
THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, AND ESPECIALLY MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES
ISLANDS, ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-15 12:30

WTIO22 FMEE 151226
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 012/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/03/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 15 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 52.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY TWO    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 260 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 330 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
45 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 40 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 50 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 110 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/16 AT 00 UTC:
15.7 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/03/16 AT 12 UTC:
16.7 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-03-15 07:16

WTIO31 FMEE 150713 RRA
...............CORRECTIF..............
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/10/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.1 S / 51.7 E
(QUINZE DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SO: 170 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2020 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/03/2020 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 16/03/2020 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 17/03/2020 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 17/03/2020 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 18/03/2020 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/03/2020 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 20/03/2020 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.5+. CI=4.0

>

2020-03-15 07:16

WTIO30 FMEE 150713 RRA
...............CORRECTIVE..............
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/10/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 51.7 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/15 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/16 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/16 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/17 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/17 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/18 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/19 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/20 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5+. CI=4.0

>

2020-03-15 07:14

WTIO31 FMEE 150713 CCA
***************CORRECTIF**************
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/10/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.1 S / 51.7 E
(QUINZE DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SO: 170 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2020 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/03/2020 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 16/03/2020 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 17/03/2020 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 17/03/2020 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 18/03/2020 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/03/2020 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 20/03/2020 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.5+. CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX DE LA CONVECTION
CENTRALE SONT RESTES RELATIVEMENT CHAUDS, PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC
LA DIMINUTION DE L'ENERGIE OCEANIQUE OCCASIONNEE PAR LE STATIONNEMENT
DU SYSTEME DEPUIS PLUS DE 36H. CEPENDANT, L'ENROULEMENT DES BANDES
CONVECTIVES PRESENTE TOUJOURS UNE STRUCTURE D'OEIL EN BANDE, MAIS
AVEC UNE ORGANISATION QUI SEMBLE SE DETERIORER DANS SA PARTIE
CENTRALE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : LE SYSTEME CONSERVE UN
DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT, COINCE ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD-OUEST QUI CONTINUE DE FAIBLIR ET UNE AUTRE AU NORD-EST. HEROLD VA
RESTER DANGEREUSEMENT PROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES AUJOURD'HUI ENCORE,
A PRES DE 100KM. CET APRES-MIDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ACCELERER EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPO AU NORD-EST. IL RESTE DES DIFFERENCES LONGITUDINALES
("ALONG-TRACK") ENTRE LES MODELES, MAIS CELLES-CI SONT MOINS MARQUEES
QUE DANS LES RESEAUX PRECEDENTS.
A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE SECONDE DORSALE A L'EST,
LE SYSTEME CONTINUE VERS LE SUD-EST, A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

COTE ATMOSPHERIQUE, LES CONDITIONS SONT FAVORABLES AU RENFORCEMENT DU
SYSTEME. CEPENDANT LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SEMBLE LIMITER LE RYTHME
D'INTENSIFICATION D'HEROLD DU FAIT DE L'ABSENCE DE DEPLACEMENT. DES
CE SOIR, AVEC LA REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT, L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES PREVOIENT UN CREUSEMENT REGULIER DE CE SYSTEME JUSQU'A
LUNDI SOIR. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST CAUSE L'APPARITION PUIS LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
S'AFFAIBLIR A PARTIR DE MARDI AVANT DE PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
PUREMENT TROPICALES.

LA PROXIMITE DE HEROLD INDUIT ENCORE UN IMPACT SENSIBLE SUR LA COTE
EST DE MADAGASCAR AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H. MEME SI L'ELOIGNEMENT
PROGRESSIF DU SYSTEME SE TRADUIT PAR UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DES VENTS QUI
FORTS DE SECTEUR SUD POUVANT CAUSER DES DOMMAGES SONT ATTENDUS
(RAFALES DE L'ORDRE DE 60/80 KM/H). CES VENTS POURRONT GENERER DE LA
SURCOTE DE 20 A 30 CM SUR LES COTES EXPOSEES (NOTAMMENT DANS LE FOND
DE LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL). ENFIN DES PLUIES IMPORTANTES SONT ATTENDUES
ENTRE L'ILE SAINTE MARIE ET SAMBAVA AVEC DES CUMULS POSSIBLES A PLUS
DE 150 MM EN 24H POUVANT LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 250 MM.
EN FIN DE WEEK-END ET DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES HABITANTS DES
MASCAREIGNES ET EN PARTICULIER CEUX DES ILES MAURICE ET RODRIGUES
SONT INVITES A SURVEILLER L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION, HEROLD
TRANSISTANT POTENTIELLEMENT A UNE DISTANCE INFERIEURE A 200KM DES
COTES.=

>

2020-03-15 07:14

WTIO30 FMEE 150713 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/10/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 51.7 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/15 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/16 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/16 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/17 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/17 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/18 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/19 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/20 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5+. CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
REMAINED RELATIVELY WARM, PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING OCEANIC
ENERGY DUE TO THE LACK OF MOTION OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 36 HRS.
MEANWHILE, CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUED TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE
CENTER WITH A BANDING EYE PATTERN, BUT WITH AN ORGANIZATION THAT AT
THE MOMENT SEEMS TO BE DETERIORATING.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE TRACK FORECAST : THE SYSTEM TRACKS VERY
SLOWLY, STUCK BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND AN
OTHER RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. HEROLD IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE MADAGASCAN COASTS TODAY, AS CLOSE AS 50 KM.
THIS AFTERNOON, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-EASTWARD
UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST.
SOME ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS REMAIN, BUT THOSE ARE
WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
FROM WEDNESDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SECOND RIDGE IN THE EAST,
THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LIKELY LIMITING THE INTENSIFICATION PACE DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF MOTION. TONIGHT, WITH THE SPEED INCREASE, THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SUSTAINED DEEPENING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST DRIVES THE STRENGTHENING OF A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THUS WEAKEN FROM TUESDAY BEFORE LOOSING
ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

HEROLD'S PROXIMITY TO THE MADAGASCAN EAST COAST BETWEEN 14S AND 16S
CONTINUES TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING EASTWARDS
SLOWLY (GUSTS ABOUT 60/80 KM/H) ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS. THESE
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR STORM SURGE (20 TO 30 CM) IN
SOME EXPOSED AREAS, SUCH AS ANTONGIL BAY. MOREOVER, HEAVY RAINS WITH
DAILY AMOUNTS THAT COULD EXCEED 150 MM (LOCALLY EXCEEDING 250MM) ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO THE NORTH AND SAINTE MARIE ISLAND TO THE
SOUTH.
AT THE END OF THE WEEK-END AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE INHABITANTS OF
THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, AND ESPECIALLY MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES
ISLANDS, ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION,
HEROLD TRANSITING AT A DISTANCE OF LESS THAN 200KM FROM THE COASTS.=

>

2020-03-15 07:12

WTIO31 FMEE 150654 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/10/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.1 S / 51.7 E
(QUINZE DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SO: 170 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2020 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/03/2020 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 16/03/2020 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 17/03/2020 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 17/03/2020 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 18/03/2020 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/03/2020 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 20/03/2020 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.5+. CI=4.0

>

2020-03-15 07:12

WTIO30 FMEE 150654 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/10/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 51.7 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/15 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/16 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/16 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/17 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/17 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/18 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/19 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/20 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5+. CI=4.0

>

2020-03-15 07:10

WTIO31 FMEE 150654
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/10/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.1 S / 51.7 E
(QUINZE DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/4.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SO: 170 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2020 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/03/2020 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 16/03/2020 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 17/03/2020 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 17/03/2020 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 18/03/2020 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/03/2020 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 20/03/2020 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.5+. CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX DE LA CONVECTION
CENTRALE SONT RESTES RELATIVEMENT CHAUDS, PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC
LA DIMINUTION DE L'ENERGIE OCEANIQUE OCCASIONNEE PAR LE STATIONNEMENT
DU SYSTEME DEPUIS PLUS DE 36H. CEPENDANT, L'ENROULEMENT DES BANDES
CONVECTIVES PRESENTE TOUJOURS UNE STRUCTURE D'OEIL EN BANDE, MAIS
AVEC UNE ORGANISATION QUI SEMBLE SE DETERIORER DANS SA PARTIE
CENTRALE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : LE SYSTEME CONSERVE UN
DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT, COINCE ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD-OUEST QUI CONTINUE DE FAIBLIR ET UNE AUTRE AU NORD-EST. HEROLD VA
RESTER DANGEREUSEMENT PROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES AUJOURD'HUI ENCORE,
A PRES DE 100KM. CET APRES-MIDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ACCELERER EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPO AU NORD-EST. IL RESTE DES DIFFERENCES LONGITUDINALES
("ALONG-TRACK") ENTRE LES MODELES, MAIS CELLES-CI SONT MOINS MARQUEES
QUE DANS LES RESEAUX PRECEDENTS.
A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE SECONDE DORSALE A L'EST,
LE SYSTEME CONTINUE VERS LE SUD-EST, A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

COTE ATMOSPHERIQUE, LES CONDITIONS SONT FAVORABLES AU RENFORCEMENT DU
SYSTEME. CEPENDANT LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SEMBLE LIMITER LE RYTHME
D'INTENSIFICATION D'HEROLD DU FAIT DE L'ABSENCE DE DEPLACEMENT. DES
CE SOIR, AVEC LA REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT, L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES PREVOIENT UN CREUSEMENT REGULIER DE CE SYSTEME JUSQU'A
LUNDI SOIR. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST CAUSE L'APPARITION PUIS LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
S'AFFAIBLIR A PARTIR DE MARDI AVANT DE PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
PUREMENT TROPICALES.

LA PROXIMITE DE HEROLD INDUIT ENCORE UN IMPACT SENSIBLE SUR LA COTE
EST DE MADAGASCAR AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H. MEME SI L'ELOIGNEMENT
PROGRESSIF DU SYSTEME SE TRADUIT PAR UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT DES VENTS QUI
FORTS DE SECTEUR SUD POUVANT CAUSER DES DOMMAGES SONT ATTENDUS
(RAFALES DE L'ORDRE DE 60/80 KM/H). CES VENTS POURRONT GENERER DE LA
SURCOTE DE 20 A 30 CM SUR LES COTES EXPOSEES (NOTAMMENT DANS LE FOND
DE LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL). ENFIN DES PLUIES IMPORTANTES SONT ATTENDUES
ENTRE L'ILE SAINTE MARIE ET SAMBAVA AVEC DES CUMULS POSSIBLES A PLUS
DE 150 MM EN 24H POUVANT LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 250 MM.
EN FIN DE WEEK-END ET DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES HABITANTS DES
MASCAREIGNES ET EN PARTICULIER CEUX DES ILES MAURICE ET RODRIGUES
SONT INVITES A SURVEILLER L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION, HEROLD
TRANSISTANT POTENTIELLEMENT A UNE DISTANCE INFERIEURE A 200KM DES
COTES.=

>

2020-03-15 07:10

WTIO30 FMEE 150654
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/10/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 51.7 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/15 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/16 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/16 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/17 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/17 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/18 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/19 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/20 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5+. CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
REMAINED RELATIVELY WARM, PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING OCEANIC
ENERGY DUE TO THE LACK OF MOTION OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 36 HRS.
MEANWHILE, CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUED TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE
CENTER WITH A BANDING EYE PATTERN, BUT WITH AN ORGANIZATION THAT AT
THE MOMENT SEEMS TO BE DETERIORATING.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE TRACK FORECAST : THE SYSTEM TRACKS VERY
SLOWLY, STUCK BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST AND AN
OTHER RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. HEROLD IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE MADAGASCAN COASTS TODAY, AS CLOSE AS 50 KM.
THIS AFTERNOON, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-EASTWARD
UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST.
SOME ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS REMAIN, BUT THOSE ARE
WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
FROM WEDNESDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SECOND RIDGE IN THE EAST,
THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LIKELY LIMITING THE INTENSIFICATION PACE DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF MOTION. TONIGHT, WITH THE SPEED INCREASE, THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SUSTAINED DEEPENING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST DRIVES THE STRENGTHENING OF A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THUS WEAKEN FROM TUESDAY BEFORE LOOSING
ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

HEROLD'S PROXIMITY TO THE MADAGASCAN EAST COAST BETWEEN 14S AND 16S
CONTINUES TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DAMAGING WINDS ARE WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING EASTWARDS
SLOWLY (GUSTS ABOUT 60/80 KM/H) ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS. THESE
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR STORM SURGE (20 TO 30 CM) IN
SOME EXPOSED AREAS, SUCH AS ANTONGIL BAY. MOREOVER, HEAVY RAINS WITH
DAILY AMOUNTS THAT COULD EXCEED 150 MM (LOCALLY EXCEEDING 250MM) ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO THE NORTH AND SAINTE MARIE ISLAND TO THE
SOUTH.
AT THE END OF THE WEEK-END AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE INHABITANTS OF
THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, AND ESPECIALLY MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES
ISLANDS, ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION,
HEROLD TRANSITING AT A DISTANCE OF LESS THAN 200KM FROM THE COASTS.=

>

2020-03-15 06:24

WTIO31 FMEE 150552 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/10/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.1 S / 51.5 E
(QUINZE DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SO: 170 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2020 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/03/2020 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 16/03/2020 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 17/03/2020 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 17/03/2020 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 18/03/2020 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/03/2020 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 20/03/2020 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.5+. CI=4.0

>

2020-03-15 06:24

WTIO30 FMEE 150552 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/10/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 51.5 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/15 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/16 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/16 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/17 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/17 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/18 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/19 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/20 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5+. CI=4.0

>

2020-03-15 06:24

WTIO22 FMEE 150621
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 011/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/03/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 51.7 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 260 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/15 AT 18 UTC:
15.3 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/03/16 AT 06 UTC:
16.0 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-03-15 06:23

WTIO31 FMEE 150552
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 12/10/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 15/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.1 S / 51.5 E
(QUINZE DEGRES UN SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES CINQ EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SO: 170 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2020 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 16/03/2020 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 16/03/2020 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 17/03/2020 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 17/03/2020 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 18/03/2020 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/03/2020 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 20/03/2020 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=3.5+. CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX DE LA CONVECTION
CENTRALE SONT RESTES RELATIVEMENT CHAUDS, PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC
LA DIMINUTION DE L'ENERGIE OCEANIQUE OCCASIONNEE PAR LE STATIONNEMENT
DU SYSTEME DEPUIS PLUS DE 36H. CEPENDANT, L'ENROULEMENT DES BANDES
CONVECTIVES PRESENTE TOUJOURS UNE STRUCTURE D'OEIL EN BANDE, MAIS
AVEC UNE ORGANISATION QUI SEMBLE SE DETERIORE DANS SA PARTIE
CENTRALE.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : LE SYSTEME CONSERVE UN
DEPLACEMENT TRES LENT, COINCE ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD-OUEST QUI CONTINUE DE FAIBLIR ET UNE AUTRE AU NORD-EST. HEROLD VA
RESTER DANGEREUSEMENT PROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES AUJOURD'HUI ENCORE,
A PRES DE 100KM. CET APRES-MIDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ACCELERER EN
DIRECTION DU SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE DE
MOYENNE TROPO AU NORD-EST. IL RESTE DES DIFFERENCES LONGITUDINALES
("ALONG-TRACK") ENTRE LES MODELES, MAIS CELLES-CI SONT MOINS MARQUEES
QUE DANS LES RESEAUX PRECEDENTS.
A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE SECONDE DORSALE A L'EST,
LE SYSTEME CONTINUE VERS LE SUD-EST, A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

COTE ATMOSPHERIQUE, LES CONDITIONS SONT FAVORABLES AU RENFORCEMENT DU
SYSTEME. CEPENDANT LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SEMBLE LIMITER LE RYTHME
D'INTENSIFICATION D'HEROLD DU FAIT DE L'ABSENCE DE DEPLACEMENT. DES
CE SOIR, AVEC LA REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT, L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES PREVOIENT UN CREUSEMENT REGULIER DE CE SYSTEME JUSQU'A
LUNDI SOIR. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST CAUSE L'APPARITION PUIS LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
S'AFFAIBLIR A PARTIR DE MARDI AVANT DE PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
PUREMENT TROPICALES.

LA PROXIMITE DE HEROLD INDUIT UN IMPACT SENSIBLE SUR LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H. DES VENTS FORTS DE SECTEUR
SUD POUVANT CAUSER DES DOMMAGES SONT ATTENDUS (RAFALES A PLUS DE 120
KM/H). CES VENTS POURRONT GENERER DE LA SURCOTE DE 20 A 30 CM SUR LES
COTES EXPOSEES (NOTAMMENT DANS LE FOND DE LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL). ENFIN
DES PLUIES IMPORTANTES SONT ATTENDUES ENTRE L'ILE SAINTE MARIE ET
SAMBAVA AVEC DES CUMULS POSSIBLES A PLUS DE 150 MM EN 24H POUVANT
LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 250 MM. EN FIN DE WEEK-END ET DEBUT DE
SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET EN PARTICULIER
CEUX DES ILES MAURICE ET RODRIGUES SONT INVITES A SURVEILLER
L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION, HEROLD TRANSISTANT POTENTIELLEMENT A UNE
DISTANCE INFERIEURE A 200KM DES COTES.=

>

2020-03-15 06:23

WTIO30 FMEE 150552
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/10/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/15 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.1 S / 51.5 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/0 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/15 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/16 06 UTC: 16.0 S / 53.9 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/16 18 UTC: 17.5 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/17 06 UTC: 19.4 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/17 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 63.1 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/18 06 UTC: 22.6 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/19 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/20 06 UTC: 28.4 S / 71.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=3.5+. CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
REMAINED RELATIVELY WARM, PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING OCEANIC
ENERGY DUE TO THE LACK OF MOTION OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 36 HRS.
MEANWHILE, CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUED TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE
CENTER AND A BANDING EYE PATTERN APPEARED. THE RSMC INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
DATA.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE TRACK FORECAST : THE SYSTEM REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY, STUCK BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST
AND AN OTHER RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. HEROLD IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE MADAGASCAN COASTS TODAY, AS CLOSE AS
50 KM. THIS AFTERNOON, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
SOUTH-EASTWARD UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE NORTH-EAST. SOME ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS REMAIN,
BUT THOSE ARE WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
FROM WEDNESDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SECOND RIDGE IN THE EAST,
THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LIKELY LIMITING THE INTENSIFICATION PACE DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF MOTION. TONIGHT, WITH THE SPEED INCREASE, THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SUSTAINED DEEPENING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST DRIVES THE STRENGTHENING OF A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THUS WEAKEN FROM TUESDAY BEFORE LOOSING
ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

HEROLD'S PROXIMITY TO THE MADAGASCAN EAST COAST BETWEEN 14S AND 16S
CONTINUES TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DAMAGING WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 120 KM/H) ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS.
THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR STORM SURGE (30 TO 40 CM)
IN SOME EXPOSED AREAS, SUCH AS ANTONGIL BAY. MOREOVER, HEAVY RAINS
WITH DAILY AMOUNTS THAT COULD EXCEED 150 MM (LOCALLY EXCEEDING 250MM)
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO THE NORTH AND CAP MASOALOA TO THE
SOUTH.
AT THE END OF THE WEEK-END AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE INHABITANTS OF
THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, AND ESPECIALLY MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES
ISLANDS, ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION,
HEROLD TRANSITING AT A DISTANCE OF LESS THAN 200KM FROM THE COASTS.=

>

2020-03-15 00:19

WTIO31 FMEE 150014 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/10/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.0 S / 51.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SO: 170 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2020 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 16/03/2020 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 16/03/2020 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 17/03/2020 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 17/03/2020 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 18/03/2020 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/03/2020 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 20/03/2020 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.0

>

2020-03-15 00:19

WTIO30 FMEE 150014 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/10/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 51.3 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/15 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/03/16 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/16 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/17 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/17 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/18 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/19 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/20 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.0

>

2020-03-15 00:17

WTIO31 FMEE 150014
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 11/10/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 15/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.0 S / 51.3 E
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SO: 170 NO: 100
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SO: 110 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2020 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
24H: 16/03/2020 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 16/03/2020 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
48H: 17/03/2020 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 17/03/2020 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 18/03/2020 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 19/03/2020 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 20/03/2020 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=4.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX DE LA CONVECTION
CENTRALE SONT RESTES RELATIVEMENT CHAUDS, PROBABLEMENT EN LIEN AVEC
LA DIMINUTION DE L'ENERGIE OCEANIQUE OCCASIONNEE PAR LE STATIONNEMENT
DU SYSTEME DEPUIS PLUS DE 30H. CEPENDANT, L'ENROULEMENT DES BANDES
CONVECTIVES A CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER ET UNE STRUCTURE D'OEIL EN
BANDE EST APPARUE. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE DU CMRS EST EN ACCORD
AVEC LES DONNEES OBJECTIVES ET SUBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : LE SYSTEME RESTE PEU
MOBILE, COINCE ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST QUI
CONTINUE DE FAIBLIR ET UNE AUTRE AU NORD-EST. HEROLD VA RESTER
DANGEREUSEMENT PROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES AUJOURD'HUI ENCORE,
S'APPROCHANT A PRES DE 50KM. CET APRES-MIDI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT
ACCELERER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE GRANDISSANTE DE LA
DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPO AU NORD-EST. IL RESTE DES DIFFERENCES
LONGITUDINALES ("ALONG-TRACK") ENTRE LES MODELES, MAIS CELLES-CI SONT
MOINS MARQUEES QUE DANS LES RESEAUX PRECEDENTS.
A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE SECONDE DORSALE A L'EST,
LE SYSTEME CONTINUE VERS LE SUD-EST, A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES.

COTE ATMOSPHERIQUE, LES CONDITIONS SONT FAVORABLES AU RENFORCEMENT DU
SYSTEME. CEPENDANT LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE SEMBLE LIMITER LE RYTHME
D'INTENSIFICATION D'HEROLD DU FAIT DE L'ABSENCE DE DEPLACEMENT. DES
CE SOIR, AVEC LA REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT, L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES PREVOIENT UN CREUSEMENT REGULIER DE CE SYSTEME JUSQU'A
LUNDI SOIR. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST CAUSE L'APPARITION PUIS LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
S'AFFAIBLIR A PARTIR DE MARDI AVANT DE PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
PUREMENT TROPICALES.

LA PROXIMITE DE HEROLD INDUIT UN IMPACT SENSIBLE SUR LA COTE EST DE
MADAGASCAR AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H. DES VENTS FORTS DE SECTEUR
SUD POUVANT CAUSER DES DOMMAGES SONT ATTENDUS (RAFALES A PLUS DE 120
KM/H). CES VENTS POURRONT GENERER DE LA SURCOTE DE 30 A 40 CM SUR LES
COTES EXPOSEES (NOTAMMENT DANS LE FOND DE LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL). ENFIN
DES PLUIES IMPORTANTES SONT ATTENDUES ENTRE LE CAP MASOALA ET SAMBAVA
AVEC DES CUMULS POSSIBLES A PLUS DE 150 MM EN 24H POUVANT LOCALEMENT
DEPASSER LES 250 MM. EN FIN DE WEEK-END ET DEBUT DE SEMAINE
PROCHAINE, LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET EN PARTICULIER CEUX DES
ILES MAURICE ET RODRIGUES SONT INVITES A SURVEILLER L'EVOLUTION DE LA
SITUATION, HEROLD TRANSISTANT POTENTIELLEMENT A UNE DISTANCE
INFERIEURE A 200KM DES COTES.=

>

2020-03-15 00:17

WTIO30 FMEE 150014
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/10/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 51.3 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SW: 170 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/15 12 UTC: 15.1 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2020/03/16 00 UTC: 15.6 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/16 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 55.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/17 00 UTC: 18.5 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/17 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 62.2 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/18 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 64.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/19 00 UTC: 25.3 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/20 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HRS, THE CLOUD TOPS OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION
REMAINED RELATIVELY WARM, PROBABLY BECAUSE OF THE WEAKENING OCEANIC
ENERGY DUE TO THE LACK OF MOTION OBSERVED OVER THE LAST 30 HRS.
MEANWHILE, CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUED TO WRAP TIGHTLY AROUND THE
CENTER AND A BANDING EYE PATTERN APPEARED. THE RSMC INTENSITY
ESTIMATE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE
DATA.

NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE TRACK FORECAST : THE SYSTEM REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY, STUCK BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUTH-WEST
AND AN OTHER RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. HEROLD IS STILL EXPECTED TO
REMAIN DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE MADAGASCAN COASTS TODAY, AS CLOSE AS
50 KM. THIS AFTERNOON, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO ACCELERATE
SOUTH-EASTWARD UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN
THE NORTH-EAST. SOME ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS REMAIN,
BUT THOSE ARE WEAKER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS.
FROM WEDNESDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SECOND RIDGE IN THE EAST,
THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LIKELY LIMITING THE INTENSIFICATION PACE DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF MOTION. TONIGHT, WITH THE SPEED INCREASE, THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SUSTAINED DEEPENING UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT.
FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST DRIVES THE STRENGTHENING OF A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THUS WEAKEN FROM TUESDAY BEFORE LOOSING
ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

HEROLD'S PROXIMITY TO THE MADAGASCAN EAST COAST BETWEEN 14S AND 16S
CONTINUES TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
DAMAGING WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 120 KM/H) ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS.
THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR STORM SURGE (30 TO 40 CM)
IN SOME EXPOSED AREAS, SUCH AS ANTONGIL BAY. MOREOVER, HEAVY RAINS
WITH DAILY AMOUNTS THAT COULD EXCEED 150 MM (LOCALLY EXCEEDING 250MM)
ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO THE NORTH AND CAP MASOALOA TO THE
SOUTH.
AT THE END OF THE WEEK-END AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE INHABITANTS OF
THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, AND ESPECIALLY MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES
ISLANDS, ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION,
HEROLD TRANSITING AT A DISTANCE OF LESS THAN 200KM FROM THE COASTS.=

>

2020-03-15 00:08

WTIO22 FMEE 150004
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 15/03/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 15/03/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 51.3 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 280 NM WITHIN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 55
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 70 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT, UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM
IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/15 AT 12 UTC:
15.1 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND = 65 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H, VALID 2020/03/16 AT 00 UTC:
15.6 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND = 80 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-03-14 18:45

WTIO31 FMEE 141828 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/10/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.9 S / 51.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 170 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2020 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 15/03/2020 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 16/03/2020 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 16/03/2020 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 17/03/2020 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 17/03/2020 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/03/2020 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 19/03/2020 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.5+

>

2020-03-14 18:45

WTIO30 FMEE 141828 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/10/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 51.2 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 170 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/15 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/15 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/16 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/16 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/17 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/17 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/18 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/19 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.5+

>

2020-03-14 18:42

WTIO31 FMEE 141828
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 10/10/20192020
1.A FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 14/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 14.9 S / 51.2 E
(QUATORZE DEGRES NEUF SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: NORD-EST 2 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 985 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 55 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SO: 170 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SO: 150 NO: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2020 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 15/03/2020 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
36H: 16/03/2020 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 16/03/2020 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 17/03/2020 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
72H: 17/03/2020 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/03/2020 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 19/03/2020 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.5+

LA STRUCTURE INTERNE D'HEROLD S'EST RENFORCEE COMME ILLUSTRE PAR LES
IMAGES MICRO-ONDES RECENTES (WINDSAT 1511Z, SSMIS 1410Z) AVEC UN
ANNEAU DE CONVECTION DEJA SOLIDE. IL NE FAIT GUERE DE DOUTE QUE LE
STADE DE FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE EST ATTEINT. PARALLELEMENT, LES
ESTIMATIONS D'INTENSITE OBJECTIVES ONT SIGNIFICATIIVEMENT AUGMENTE.
AU COURS DES 2/3 DERNIERES HEURES CEPENDANT, LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX DE
LA CONVECTION CENTRALE ONT EU TENDANCE A SE RECHAUFFER, PROBABLEMENT
SOUS L'EFFET D'UN DEBUT D'EPUISEMENT DE L'ENERGIE OCEANIQUE. EN
EFFET, CELA FAIT MAINTENANT 24H QUE LE SYSTEME STATIONNE SUR LES
MEMES EAUX.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERMES DE TRAJECTOIRE : LE SYSTEME RESTE
QUASI-STATIONNAIRE, COINCE ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD-OUEST QUI CONTINUE DE FAIBLIR ET UNE AUTRE AU NORD-EST. HEROLD VA
RESTER DANGEREUSEMENT PROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES JUSQU'A DIMANCHE
SOIR, S'APPROCHANT A PRES DE 50KM. EN JOURNEE DE DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT ACCELERER EN DIRECTION DU SUD-EST SOUS L'INFLUENCE
GRANDISSANTE DE LA DORSALE DE MOYENNE TROPO AU NORD-EST. LA CONFIANCE
DANS LA PREVISION DEVIENT ALORS MEILLEURE MEME SI L'INCERTITUDE SUR
LE TIMING DE REPRISE DU MOUVEMENT RESTE IMPORTANTE ET INDUIT DES
DIFFERENCES LONGITUDINALES ("ALONG-TRACK") ENTRE LES MODELES.
A PARTIR DE MERCREDI, SOUS L'INFLUENCE D'UNE SECONDE DORSALE A L'EST,
LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PLONGER VERS LE SUD-SUD-EST A L'AVANT D'UN THALWEG
DES MOYENNES LATITUDES.

COTE ATMOSPHERIQUE, LES CONDITIONS SONT FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION. CEPENDANT LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE RISQUE DE DEVENIR
LIMITANT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12H DU FAIT DE L'ABSENCE DE
DEPLACEMENT DE HEROLD ET POTENTIELLEMENT RALENTIR LE DEVELOPPEMENT
D'HEROLD. ENSUITE, L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES PREVOIENT UN
CREUSEMENT REGULIER DE CE SYSTEME JUSQU'A LA MI-JOURNEE DE LUNDI. A
PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU
SUD-OUEST CAUSE L'APPARITION PUIS LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR
A PARTIR DE MARDI AVANT DE PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT
TROPICALES.

LA PROXIMITE DE HEROLD DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR INDUIT UN IMPACT
SENSIBLE DU SYSTEME AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 18 A 30H. DES VENTS FORTS
DE SECTEUR SUD POUVANT CAUSER DES DOMMAGES SONT ATTENDUS (RAFALES A
PLUS DE 120 KM/H). CES VENTS POURRONT GENERER DE LA SURCOTE DE 30 A
40 CM SUR LES COTES EXPOSEES (NOTAMMENT DANS LE FOND DE LA BAIE
D'ANTONGIL). ENFIN DES PLUIES IMPORTANTES SONT ATTENDUES ENTRE LE CAP
MASOALA ET SAMBAVA AVEC DES CUMULS POSSIBLES A PLUS DE 150 MM EN 24H
POUVANT LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 250 MM. EN FIN DE WEEK-END ET DEBUT
DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES HABITANTS DES MASCAREIGNES ET EN
PARTICULIER CEUX DES ILES MAURICE ET RODRIGUES SONT INVITES A
SURVEILLER L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION, HEROLD TRANSISTANT A UNE
DISTANCE INFERIEURE A 200KM DES COTES.=

>

2020-03-14 18:42

WTIO30 FMEE 141828
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/10/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/14 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 51.2 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 2 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 37 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 220 SW: 170 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/15 06 UTC: 15.0 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/15 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2020/03/16 06 UTC: 16.2 S / 54.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/16 18 UTC: 17.7 S / 57.0 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/17 06 UTC: 19.6 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/17 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 62.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/18 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/19 18 UTC: 27.4 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.5+

HEROLD'S INTERNAL STRUCTURE HAS STRENGTHENED AS ILLUSTRATED BY RECENT
MW IMAGES (WINDSAT 1511Z, SSMIS 1410Z) WITH A CONVECTION RING ALREADY
QUITE ROBUST. THE SEVERE TROPICAL STORM STAGE IS THUS REACHED.
MEANWHILE, THE OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATIONS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY
INCREASED. OVER THE LAST 2/3 HOURS HOWEVER, THE CENTRAL CLOUD TOPS
TENDED TO WARM UP, PROBABLY BECAUSE OF A BEGINNING OF OCEANIC ENERGY
SHORTAGE. INDEED, HEROLD HAS REMAINED OVER THE SAME WATERS FOR MORE
THAN 24 HRS NOW.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE TRACK FORECAST : THE SYSTEM REMAINS
QUASI-STATIONARY, STUCK BETWEEN A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN THE SOUT-WEST
AND AN OTHER RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. HEROLD WILL THUS BE LOCATED
DANGEROUSLY CLOSE TO THE MADAGASCAN COASTS UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING,
COMING AS CLOSE AS 50 KM. SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE SOUTH-EASTWARD UNDER THE GROWING INFLUENCE OF THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. FROM THIS POINT ONWARD, CONFIDENCE
IN THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES BETTER, EVEN IF THE UNCERTAINTY ON THE
TIMING OF THE RESUMPTION OF THE MOTION REMAINS SIGNIFICANT AND
INDUCES ALONG-TRACK DIFFERENCES BETWEEN MODELS.
FROM WEDNESDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN SECOND RIDGE IN THE EAST,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD DIVE SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD AHEAD OF A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER THE
OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO BECOME LIMITED DURING THE NEXT 12
HOURS DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF MOTION AND COULD TEMPORARILY LIMIT
HEROLD'S DEVELOPMENT. THEN, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
SUSTAINED DEEPENING UNTIL MONDAY 12Z. FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A
NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST DRIVES THE STRENGTHENING
OF A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THUS BEGIN
TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY BEFORE LOOSING ITS PURELY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

HEROLD'S PROXIMITY TO THE MADAGASCAN EAST COAST BETWEEN 14S AND 16S
BRINGS HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 30 HOURS. DAMAGING
WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 120 KM/H) ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS. THESE
SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR STORM SURGE (30 TO 40 CM) IN
SOME EXPOSED AREAS, SUCH AS ANTONGIL BAY. MOREOVER, HEAVY RAINS WITH
DAILY AMOUNTS THAT COULD EXCEED 150 MM (LOCALLY EXCEEDING 250MM) ARE
EXPECTED BETWEEN SAMBAVA TO THE NORTH AND CAP MASOALOA TO THE SOUTH.
AT THE END OF THE WEEK-END AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE INHABITANTS OF
THE MASCARENES ISLANDS, AND ESPECIALLY MAURITIUS AND RODRIGUES
ISLANDS, ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE SITUATION,
HEROLD TRANSITING AT A DISTANCE OF LESS THAN 200KM FROM THE COASTS.=

>

2020-03-14 18:23

WTIO22 FMEE 141816
SECURITE
STORM WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

STORM WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 14/03/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD) 985 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 51.2 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: NORTH-EAST 2 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 180 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 250 NM WITHIN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.

STORM FORCE WINDS 50/55 KT AND HIGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE.
GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 50 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 80 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 90 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT AND UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/15 AT 06 UTC:
15.0 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND = 60 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/03/15 AT 18 UTC:
15.3 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND = 70 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-03-14 12:39

WTIO31 FMEE 141217 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/10/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 51.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 190 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 100 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2020 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 15/03/2020 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 16/03/2020 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 16/03/2020 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 17/03/2020 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 17/03/2020 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/03/2020 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 19/03/2020 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0

>

2020-03-14 12:39

WTIO30 FMEE 141217 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/10/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 51.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 190 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/15 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/15 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/03/16 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/16 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/17 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/17 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/18 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/19 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0

>

2020-03-14 12:37

WTIO31 FMEE 141217
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/10/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 14/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.2 S / 51.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES DEUX SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 190 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 100 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 15/03/2020 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 15/03/2020 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 16/03/2020 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 16/03/2020 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 17/03/2020 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 17/03/2020 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/03/2020 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 19/03/2020 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0

AU COURS DES 6 DERNIERES HEURES, HEROLD NE S'EST QUASIMENT PAS
DEPLACER ET A MAINTENU SA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE. LES SOMMETS SONT
TOUTEFOIS UN PEU PLUS FROIDS, PRINCIPALEMENT A PROXIITE DU CENTRE,
SANS PRESENTER UN SIGNAL D'INTENSIFICATION NOTABLE. L'ANALYSE DVORAK
RESTE DONC A 3.0 AVEC DES VENTS ESTIMES DE L'ORDRE DE 40KT. AUCUNE
AUTRE DONNEE NE PERMET DE CORRIGER CETTE ESTMATION.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE : LE SYSTEME CONTINUE A
FAIRE DU QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. COINCE ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU
SUD-OUEST QUI FAIBLIT PROGRESSIVEMENT ET UNE AUTRE A L'EST, LE
SYSTEME POURSUIT UN DEPLACEMENT LENT ET ERRATIQUE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 18/24H AVANT QUE LA DORSALE AU SUD NE S'EFFACE. AU COURS
DE CES ECHEANCES, HEROLD RESTE DANGEREUSEMENT PROCHE DES COTES
MALGACHES, S'APPROCHANT A PRES DE 50KM. UNE FOIS PASSEE LES COURTES
ECHEANCES, LA QUALITE DE PREVISION EST MEILLEURE A PARTIR DE
DIMANCHE, AVEC UNE TRAJECTOIRE QUI PREND UNE DIRECTION VERS
L'EST-SUD-EST, DIRIGEE PAR UN PROFOND FLUX DIRECTEUR
D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LES MODELES SONT EN BON
ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO FAISANT TRANSISTER LE METERORE AU NORD DES
MASCAREIGNES.

COTE ATMOSPHERIQUE, LES CONDITIONS SONT FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION, CEPENDANT LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE RISQUE DE DEVENIR
LIMITANT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 12/18H DU FAIT DE L'ABSENCE DE
DEPLACEMENT DE HEROLD ET EMPECHER TEMPORAIREMENT L'INTENSIFICATION DU
SYSTEME. UNE FOIS LE DEPLACEMENT REPRIS, L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES
DISPONIBLES PREVOIENT UN CREUSEMENT REGULIER DE CE SYSTEME AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 54H. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST CAUSE L'APPARITION PUIS LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
S'AFFAIBLIR A PARTIR DE MARDI AVANT DE PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
PUREMENT TROPICALES.

LA PROXIMITE DE HEROLD DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR ENTRE 14S ET 16S
INDUIT UN IMPACT SENSIBLE DU SYSTEME AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 18 A
30H. DES VENTS FORTS DE SECTEUR SUD POUVANT CAUSER DES DOMMAGES, SONT
ATTENDUS (RAFALES A PLUS DE 100 KM/H). CES VENTS POURRONT GENERER DE
LA SURCOTE DE 20 A 30 CM SUR LES COTES EXPOSEES (NOTAMMENT DANS LE
FOND DE LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL). ENFIN DES PLUIES IMPORTANTES SONT
ATTENDUES ENTRE LE CAP MASOALA ET SAMBAVA AVEC DES CUMULS POSSIBLES A
PLUS DE 150 MM EN 24H POUVANT LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 250 MM.
EN FIN DE WEEK-END ET DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES HABITANTS DES
MASCAREIGNES ET NOTAMMENT CEUX DES ILES MAURICE ET RODRIGUES SONT
INVITES A SURVEILLER L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION, HEROLD TRANSISTANT
A UNE DISTANCE INFERIEURE A 200KM DES COTES.=

>

2020-03-14 12:37

WTIO30 FMEE 141217
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/10/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/14 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 51.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 190 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/15 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/15 12 UTC: 15.4 S / 51.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/03/16 00 UTC: 15.9 S / 53.3 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/16 12 UTC: 17.0 S / 55.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/17 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 58.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/17 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 60.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/18 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 66.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/19 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, HEROLD HAS STAYED ALMOST MOTIONLESS AND HAS
MAINTAINED ITS CLOUD PATTERN. THE CLOUD TOPS ARE HOWEVER A LITTLE
COLDER, MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER, WITHOUT SHOWING A NOTICEABLE
INTENSIFICATION. THE DVORAK ANALYSIS REMAINS AT 3.0 WITH ESTIMATED
WINDS AROUND 40KT. NO OTHER DATA CAN CORRECT THIS ESTIMATION.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE
QUASY-STATIONARY. WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL PATTERN, THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 18/24 HOURS BEFORE THE REMOVE
OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEROLD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DANGEROUSLY CLOSE OF THE NORTH-EASTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, APPROACHING NEARLY 50KM. ONCE
THE SHORT TIME FRAME IS OVER, THE FORECAST QUALITY IS BETTER FROM
SUNDAY ONWARDS, THE TRACK TAKES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION, DIRECTED
BY A DEEP WEST-NORTHWEST DIRECTIONAL FLOW IN MID-LEVEL. THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO MAKING THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
TRANSITING NORTH OF THE MASCARENES.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER
THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO BECOME LIMITED DURING THE NEXT
12/18 HOURS DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF HEROLD DISPLACEMENT AND TEMPORARILY
PREVENT THE INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. ONCE THE DISPLACEMENT HAS
RESUMED AND IN THIS CONTEXT, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A
SUSTAINED DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 54 HOURS. FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL
OF A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST DRIVES THE
STRENGHTENING OF A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THUS BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY BEFORE LOOSING ITS PURELY
TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS EVENTUALLY.

HEROLD'S PROXIMITY TO THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN 14S AND
16S IS EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO
30 HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 100 KM/H) IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
COASTS. THIS SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR STORM SURGE (20 TO
30 CM) IN SOME EXPOSED AREAS LIKE THE ANTONGIL BAY. FINALLY, HEAVY
RAINS WITH DAILY AMOUNTS THAT COULD EXCEED 150 MM (LOCALLY EXCEEDING
250MM) ARE EXPECTED BETWEN SAMBAVA TO THENORTH AND CAP MASOALOA TO
THE SOUTH.
AT THE END OF THE WEEK-END AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE INHABITANTS OF
THE MASCARENES ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SITUATION, HEROLD TRANSITING AT A DISTANCE OF LESS THAN 200KM FROM
THE COAST.=

>

2020-03-14 12:08

WTIO22 FMEE 141204
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 14/03/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.2 S / 51.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 120 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/15 AT 00 UTC:
15.2 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/03/15 AT 12 UTC:
15.4 S / 51.8 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-03-14 06:56

WTIO31 FMEE 140622 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/10/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.3 S / 51.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 190 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 100 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/03/2020 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 15/03/2020 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 15/03/2020 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 16/03/2020 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 16/03/2020 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 17/03/2020 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/03/2020 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 19/03/2020 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0

>

2020-03-14 06:56

WTIO30 FMEE 140622 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/10/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 51.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 190 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/14 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/15 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/03/15 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/16 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/16 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/17 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/18 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/19 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0

>

2020-03-14 06:53

WTIO31 FMEE 140622
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/10/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 14/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.3 S / 51.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES TROIS SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: QUASI-STATIONNAIRE.

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 190 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 100 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/03/2020 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 15/03/2020 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 15/03/2020 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 16/03/2020 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
60H: 16/03/2020 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 17/03/2020 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/03/2020 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 19/03/2020 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0

LES DONNEES MICRO-ONDES DE 0318UTC PERMETTRE DE CONFIRMER LE FAIBLE
DEPLACEMENT DE HEROLD AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6 HEURES. LA PASSE
PARTIELLE ASCAT DE 0526UTC PLAIDE ENCORE POUR DES VENT DE L'ORDRE DE
40/45KT ALORS DE L'ACTIVITE CONVECTIVE A FAIBLIT AU COURS DES
DERNIERES HEURES LAISSANT UNE ESTIMATION DVORAK DE 3.0.

PAS DE CHANGEMENT EN TERME DE TRAJECTOIRE : LE SYSTEME CONTINUE DE
DERIVER LENTEMENT VOIRE A FAIRE DU QUASI-STATIONNAIRE. COINCE ENTRE
UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET UNE AUTRE A L'EST, LE
SYSTEME VA CONNAITRE UN DEPLACEMENT LENT ET ERRATIQUE AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24H AVANT QUE LA DORSALE AU SUD NE S'EFFACE. HEROLD VA DE
TOUTE FACON RESTER DANGEREUSEMENT PROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES AU COURS
DES PROCHAINES 24H. UNE FOIS PASSEE LES COURTES ECHEANCES, LA QUALITE
DE PREVISION EST MEILLEURE A PARTIR DE DIMANCHE, LA TRAJECTOIRE PREND
UNE DIRECTION VERS L'EST-SUD-EST, DIRIGEE PAR UN PROFOND FLUX
DIRECTEUR D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE. LES MODELES SONT
EN BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO.

COTE ATMOSPHERIQUE, LES CONDITIONS SONT FAVORABLES A UNE
INTENSIFICATION, CEPENDANT LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE RISQUE DE DEVENIR
LIMITANT AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H DU FAIT DE L'ABSENCE DE
DEPLACEMENT DE HEROLD ET AFFAIBLIR TEMPORAIREMENT LE SYSTEME. UNE
FOIS LE DEPLACEMENT REPRIS, L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES
PREVOIENT UN CREUSEMENT REGULIER DE CE SYSTEME AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 60H. A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU TALWEG
D'ALTITUDE AU SUD-OUEST CAUSE L'APPARITION PUIS LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN
CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS
S'AFFAIBLIR A PARTIR DE MARDI AVANT DE PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES
PUREMENT TROPICALES.

LA PROXIMITE DE HEROLD DE LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR ENTRE 14S ET 16S
INDUIT UN IMPACT SENSIBLE DU SYSTEME AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 A
36H. DES VENTS FORTS DE SECTEUR SUD POUVANT CAUSER DES DOMMAGES, SONT
ATTENDUS (RAFALES A PLUS DE 100 KM/H). CES VENTS POURRONT GENERER DE
LA SURCOTE DE 20 A 30 CM SUR LES COTES EXPOSEES (NOTAMMENT DANS LE
FOND DE LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL). ENFIN DES PLUIES IMPORTANTES SONT
ATTENDUES ENTRE LE CAP MASOALA ET SAMBAVA AVEC DES CUMULS POSSIBLES A
PLUS DE 150 MM EN 24H POUVANT LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 200 MM.
EN FIN DE WEEK-END ET DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES HABITANTS DES
MASCAREIGNES ET NOTAMMENT CEUX DES ILES MAURICE ET RODRIGUES SONT
INVITES A SURVEILLER L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-14 06:53

WTIO30 FMEE 140622
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/10/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/14 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 51.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY.

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 190 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/14 18 UTC: 15.3 S / 51.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/15 06 UTC: 15.4 S / 51.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/03/15 18 UTC: 15.6 S / 52.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/16 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 54.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/16 18 UTC: 17.9 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/17 06 UTC: 19.7 S / 59.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/18 06 UTC: 24.2 S / 65.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/19 06 UTC: 27.1 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0

0318UTC MICROWAVE DATA WILL CONFIRM THE LOW DISPLACEMENT OF HEROLD
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. THE PARTIAL ASCAT SWATH OF 0526UTC STILL
PLEADS FOR WINDS OF THE ORDER OF 40/45KT. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS
WEAKENED DURING THE LAST HOURS LEAVING A DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 3.0.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DRIFT SLOWLY OR
EVEN ALMOST STATIONARY. WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL PATTERN, THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE THE REMOVE
OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEROLD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DANGEROUSLY CLOSE OF THE NORTH-EASTERN COASTS OF
MADAGASCAR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ONCE THE SHORT TIME FRAME IS
OVER, THE FORECAST QUALITY IS BETTER FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, THE TRACK
TAKES AN EAST-SOUTHEAST DIRECTION, DIRECTED BY A DEEP WEST-NORTHWEST
DIRECTIONAL FLOW IN MID-LEVEL. THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS SCENARIO.

ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVOURABLE FOR AN INTENSIFICATION, HOWEVER
THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LIKELY TO BECOME LIMITED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF HEROLD DISPLACEMENT AND SO TEMPORARILY
WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. ONCE THE DISPLACEMENT HAS RESUMED AND IN THIS
CONTEXT, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A SUSTAINED DEEPENING OVER
THE NEXT 60 HOURS. FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST DRIVES THE STRENGHTENING OF A
NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THUS BEGIN TO
WEAKEN ON TUESDAY BEFORE LOOSING ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS
EVENTUALLY.

HEROLD'S PROXIMITY TO THE EAST COAST OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN 14S AND
16S IS EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS (GUSTS UP TO 100 KM/H) IS EXPECTED ALONG THE
COASTS. THIS SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY CAUSE SOME MINOR STORM SURGE (20 TO
30 CM) IN SOME EXPOSED AREAS LIKE THE ANTONGIL BAY. FINALLY, HEAVY
RAINS WITH DAILY AMOUNTS THAT COULD EXCEED 150 MM (LOCALLY EXCEEDING
200MM) ARE EXPECTED BETWEN SAMBAVA TO THENORTH AND CAP MASOALOA TO
THE SOUTH.
AT THE END OF THE WEEK-END AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE INHABITANTS OF
THE MASCARENES ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-14 06:13

WTIO22 FMEE 140608
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 14/03/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.3 S / 51.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 200 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 260 NM WITHIN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/14 AT 18 UTC:
15.3 S / 51.0 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/03/15 AT 06 UTC:
15.4 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-03-14 01:12

WTIO31 FMEE 140041 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/10/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.0 S / 51.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 190 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 100 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/03/2020 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 15/03/2020 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 15/03/2020 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 16/03/2020 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 16/03/2020 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 17/03/2020 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/03/2020 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 19/03/2020 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0

>

2020-03-14 01:12

WTIO30 FMEE 140041 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/10/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 51.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 190 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/14 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/15 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/03/15 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/03/16 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/16 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/17 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/18 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/19 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0

>

2020-03-14 01:09

WTIO31 FMEE 140041
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/10/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 14/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.0 S / 51.0 E
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST 3 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 45 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SO: 190 NO: 200
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 100 NO: 150


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/03/2020 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 15/03/2020 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 15/03/2020 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
48H: 16/03/2020 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 16/03/2020 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 17/03/2020 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 18/03/2020 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
120H: 19/03/2020 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=3.0

LA SIGNATURE SATELLITE A GLOBALEMENT CONTINUE DE S'AMELIORER AVEC DES
SIGNES DE COURBURE DE PLUS EN PLUS MARQUES DANS LES BANDES
CONVECTIVES. LA PASS AMSR2 DE 2152Z MONTRE QUE L'ORGANISATION DE
BASSES COUCHES EST EN AMELIORATION AVEC LA CONSTITUTION D'UN COEUR
ASSEZ LARGE. LES PASS ASCAT-B ET C VERS 18-19Z DONNENT DES VENTS A 40
KT. COMPTE TENU DE L'AMELIORATION DE LA CIRCULATION DE BASSES
COUCHES, L'INTENSITE EST MAINTENANT AUGMENTEE A 45 KT ... DANS LA
FOURCHETTE DES ESTIMATIONS SUBJECTIVES ET OBJECTIVES DISPONIBLES QUI
SONT A 40-50 KT.

LE SYSTEME CONTINU DE DERIVER LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE
L'OUEST. COINCE ENTRE UNE DORSALE SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET UNE
AUTRE A L'EST, LE SYSTEME VA CONNAITRE UN DEPLACEMENT LENT ET
ERRATIQUE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24H AVANT QUE LA DORSALE AU SUD NE
S'EFFACE. SI LE SCENARIO D'UN ATTERRISSAGE SUR LA COTE NORD-EST DE
MADAGASCAR VERS ANTALAHA N'APPARAIT PAS COMME LE PLUS PROBABLE, IL NE
PEUT MALGRE TOUT ETRE EXCLU. HEROLD VA DE TOUTE FACON RESTER
DANGEREUSEMENT PROCHE DES COTES MALGACHES AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
24H. DIMANCHE, LA TRAJECTOIRE S'INFLECHIT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST, DIRIGEE
PAR UN PROFOND FLUX DIRECTEUR D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHA
RE ENTRE UNE SUCCESSION DE DA FERLEMENTS D'ONDE DE ROSSBY AU SUD ET
LE MAINTIEN D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE A QUATORIALE AU NORD-EST. LES
MODELES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO.

LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EST BONNE ET DEVRAIT ENCORE S'AMELIORER AU
COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS A LA FOIS CA TA  NORD RENFORCEE PAR LE
PASSAGE D'UNE ONDE DE KELVIN AUJOURD'HUI ET DEMAIN ET COTE SUD AVEC
UN CANAL D'EVACUATION RENFORCEE PAR UNE ENTREE CHAUDE DE JET. LE
POTENTIEL OCA ANIQUE EST LARGEMENT SUFFISANT AVEC DES EAUX DE SURFACE
A 29AOC. DANS CE CONTEXTE, L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES
PREVOIENT UN CREUSEMENT REGULIER DE CE SYSTEME AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 60H. TOUTEFOIS LE DEPLACEMENT LENT DU SYSTEME AU COURS DES
PROCHAINES 24/36H POURRAIT CONTRIBUER A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT TEMPORAIRE
DU SYSTEME PAR REMONTEE D'EAU FROIDE INDUITE PAR POMPAGE D'ECKMAN. UN
PLATEAU EN TERME D'INTENSITE EST MAINTENANT DANS LA PREVISION
D'INTENSITE DES PROCHAINES 24H POUR REFLETER CE PHENOMENE. EN
REALITE, DES FLUCTUATIONS PLUS MARQUEES D'INTENSITE SONT POSSIBLES
AVEC EN PLUS, UNE INTERACTION POSSIBLE AVEC LES TERRES.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU
SUD-OUEST CAUSE L'APPARITION PUIS LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR
A PARTIR DE MARDI AVANT DE PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT
TROPICALES.

LE NOUVEAU SCENARIO EXPOSE PLUS LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR ENTRE 14S
ET 16S A UN IMPACT SENSIBLE DU SYSTEME AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 A
36H. DES VENTS FORTS DE SECTEUR SUD POUVANT CAUSER DES DOMMAGES, SONT
ATTENDUS (RAFALES A PLUS DE 100 KM/H). CES VENTS POURRONT GENERER DE
LA SURCOTE DE 20 A 30 CM SUR LES COTES EXPOSEES (NOTAMMENT DANS LE
FOND DE LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL). ENFIN DES PLUIES IMPORTANTES SONT
ATTENDUES ENTRE LE CAP MASOALA ET SAMBAVA AVEC DES CUMULS POSSIBLES A
PLUS DE 150 MM EN 24H POUVANT LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 200 MM.
EN FIN DE WEEK-END ET DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES HABITANTS DES
MASCAREIGNES ET NOTAMMENT CEUX DES ILES MAURICE ET RODRIGUES SONT
INVITES A SURVEILLER L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-14 01:09

WTIO30 FMEE 140041
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/10/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/14 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 51.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 65 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 150 SW: 190 NW: 200
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 100 NW: 150


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/14 12 UTC: 15.3 S / 51.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/15 00 UTC: 15.3 S / 51.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/03/15 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 52.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/03/16 00 UTC: 16.1 S / 54.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/16 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 56.6 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/17 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/18 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/03/19 00 UTC: 28.6 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE OVER THE LAST 6
HOURS WITH INCREASING SIGNS OF CURVATURE. THE 2152Z AMSR2 PASS SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL PATTERN WITH THE BUILDING OF A RATHER LARGE
INNER-CORE. ASCAT-B AND C PASS AROUND 18-19Z FINALLY GAVE 40 KT
WINDS. BASED ON THE ONGOING IMPROVEMENT OF THE LOW LEVEL PATTERN, THE
FINAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KT IN AGREEMENT OF THE LATEST OBJECTIVE
AND SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES THAT RANGE BETWEEN 40-50 KT.

THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO DRIFT WESTWARDS. WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL
PATTERN, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS BEFORE THE REMOVE OF THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. A LANDFALL OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF MADAGASCAR NEAR ANTALAHA, IS NOT THE MOST
LIKELY SCENARIO CURRENTLY BUT COULD NOT BE RULED OUT. HAVING SAID
THAT, IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEROLD IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
DANGEROUSLY CLOSE OF THE NORTH-EASTERN COASTS OF MADAGASCAR DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SUNDAY, THE TRACK SHOULD CURVE
EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS STEERED BY A DEEP WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
SYNOPTIC FLOW BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE ROSSBY WAVES SURGES IN THE SOUTH AND
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT AND SHOULD EVEN IMPROVE
EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT DAYS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ACTIVE KELVIN
WAVE EQUATORWARD, AND AN ENTRANCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET
POLEWARD. THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LARGELY SUFFICIENT OVER 29AOC
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A SUSTAINED DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS. HOWEVER THE SLOW
FORWARD MOTION EXPECTED WIHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS MAY CAUSE SOME
WEAKENING DUE TO THE COOLING OF THE SST UNDERNEATH. THE
INTENSIFICATION IS STOPPED OVER THE NEXT 24H IN THE CURRENT FORECAST
TO TAKE THAT EFFECT INTO ACCOUNT. MORE PRONOUNCED FLUCTUATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE ... SPECIALLY IF LAND DETRIMENTAL EFFECTS OCCUR.
FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST DRIVES THE STRENGHTENING OF A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THUS BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY BEFORE
LOOSING ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS EVENTUALLY.

THE NEW TRACK FORECAST BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE EASTERN COASTS
OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN 14S AND 16S AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS (GUSTS UP
TO 100 KM/H) IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS. THIS SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
CAUSE SOME MINOR STORM SURGE (20 TO 30 CM) IN SOME EXPOSED AREAS LIKE
THE ANTONGIL BAY. FINALLY, HEAVY RAINS WITH DAILY AMOUNTS THAT COULD
EXCEED 150 MM (LOCALLY EXCEEDING 200MM) ARE EXPECTED BETWEN SAMBAVA
TO THENORTH AND CAP MASOALOA TO THE SOUTH.
AT THE END OF THE WEEK-END AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE INHABITANTS OF
THE MASCARENES ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-14 00:32

WTIO22 FMEE 140028
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 14/03/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 14/03/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 51.0 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST 3 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 200 NM WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/45 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
55 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN AND SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 80
NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 80
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 105 NM IN THE
SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 110 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/14 AT 12 UTC:
15.3 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/03/15 AT 00 UTC:
15.3 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL.=

>

2020-03-13 19:30

WTIO31 FMEE 131914 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/10/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.0 S / 51.7 E
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SO: 180 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 100


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/03/2020 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 14/03/2020 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 15/03/2020 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 15/03/2020 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 16/03/2020 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 16/03/2020 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/03/2020 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 18/03/2020 18 UTC: 27.9 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=2.5+

>

2020-03-13 19:30

WTIO30 FMEE 131914 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/10/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 51.7 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 180 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 100


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/14 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/14 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/03/15 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/15 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/16 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/16 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/17 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2020/03/18 18 UTC: 27.9 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+

>

2020-03-13 19:28

WTIO31 FMEE 131914
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/10/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 13/03/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 15.0 S / 51.7 E
(QUINZE DEGRES ZERO SUD ET CINQUANTE UN DEGRES SEPT EST)
DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 4 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SO: 180 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SO: 0 NO: 100


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: NON RENSEIGNE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 14/03/2020 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 14/03/2020 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE
TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 15/03/2020 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
48H: 15/03/2020 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
60H: 16/03/2020 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE
72H: 16/03/2020 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL INTENSE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 17/03/2020 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, CYCLONE
TROPICAL
120H: 18/03/2020 18 UTC: 27.9 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
FT=CI=2.5+


LA CONFIGURATION EN BANDE INCURVEE DE CET APRES-MIDI S'EST QUELQUE
PEU EFFONDREE VERS 13-14Z. MAIS DEPUIS 15-16Z, DE LA TRES FORTE
CONVECTION A REPRIS PRES DU CENTRE. MALGRE CES FLUCTUATIONS LA
SIGNATURE SATELLITE EST TOUJOURS EN AMELIORATION GLOBALE ET LES
DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS DVORAK SUBJECTIVES SONT A 35-40 KT, TOUT COMME
LES DERNIERES ESTIMATIONS OBJECTIVES. L'INTENSITE FINALE EST ESTIMEE
A 35 KT ET LE SYSTEME A ETE BAPTISE HEROLD PAR LE SERVICE
METEOROLOGIQUE DE MADAGASCAR.

LES DERNIERS FIX DEPUIS 12Z, SUGGERENT QUE LE SYSTEME DERIVE
LENTEMENT EN DIRECTION GENERALE DE L'OUEST. COINCE ENTRE UNE DORSALE
SUBTROPICALE AU SUD-OUEST ET UNE AUTRE A L'EST, LE SYSTEME VA
CONNAITRE UN DEPLACEMENT LENT ET ERRATIQUE AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
24/36H AVEC UNE POSSIBLE PREDOMINANCE D'UNE TENDANCE OUEST AU COURS
DES 12 PROCHAINES HEURES (SCENARIO DES DERNIERS CYCLES D'AROME, UKMO
ET IFS).  DIMANCHE, LA TRAJECTOIRE S'INFLECHIT VERS L'EST-SUD-EST,
DIRIGEE PAR UN PROFOND FLUX DIRECTEUR D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHA RE ENTRE UNE SUCCESSION DE DA FERLEMENTS D'ONDE DE ROSSBY
AU SUD ET LE MAINTIEN D'UNE DORSALE PROCHE A QUATORIALE AU NORD-EST.
LES MODELES SONT EN BON ACCORD SUR CE SCENARIO.

LA DIVERGENCE D'ALTITUDE EST BONNE ET DEVRAIT ENCORE S'AMELIORER AU
COURS DES PROCHAINS JOURS A LA FOIS CA TA  NORD RENFORCEE PAR LE
PASSAGE D'UNE ONDE DE KELVIN ET COTE SUD AVEC UN CANAL D'EVACUATION
RENFORCEE PAR UNE ENTREE CHAUDE DE JET. LE POTENTIEL OCA ANIQUE EST
LARGEMENT SUFFISANT AVEC DES EAUX DE SURFACE A 29AOC. DANS CE
CONTEXTE, L'ENSEMBLE DES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES PREVOIENT UN
CREUSEMENT REGULIER DE CE SYSTEME AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 60H.
TOUTEFOIS LE DEPLACEMENT LENT DU SYSTEME AU COURS DES PROCHAINES
24/36H POURRAIT CONTRIBUER A UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT TEMPORAIRE DU SYSTEME
PAR REMONTEE D'EAU FROIDE INDUITE PAR POMPAGE D'ECKMAN. CETTE
TENDANCE, NON MONTREE DANS LA PRESENTE PREVISION, EST A L'ETUDE POUR
LE PROCHAIN RESEAU.
A PARTIR DE LUNDI, L'ARRIVEE D'UN NOUVEAU TALWEG D'ALTITUDE AU
SUD-OUEST CAUSE L'APPARITION PUIS LE RENFORCEMENT D'UN CISAILLEMENT
VERTICAL DE SECTEUR NORD-OUEST. LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT ALORS S'AFFAIBLIR
AVANT DE PERDRE SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICALES.

LE NOUVEAU SCENARIO EXPOSE PLUS LA COTE EST DE MADAGASCAR ENTRE 14S
ET 16S A UN IMPACT SENSIBLE DU SYSTEME AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 24 A
36H. DES VENTS FORTS DE SECTEUR SUD POUVANT CAUSER DES DOMMAGES, SONT
ATTENDUS (RAFALES A PLUS DE 100 KM/H). CES VENTS POURRONT GENERER DE
LA SURCOTE DE 20 A 30 CM SUR LES COTES EXPOSEES (NOTAMMENT DANS LE
FOND DE LA BAIE D'ANTONGIL). ENFIN DES PLUIES IMPORTANTES SONT
ATTENDUES ENTRE LE CAP MASOALA ET SAMBAVA AVEC DES CUMULS POSSIBLES A
PLUS DE 150 MM EN 24H POUVANT LOCALEMENT DEPASSER LES 200 MM.
EN FIN DE WEEK-END ET DEBUT DE SEMAINE PROCHAINE, LES HABITANTS DES
MASCAREIGNES ET NOTAMMENT CEUX DES ILES MAURICE ET RODRIGUES SONT
INVITES A SURVEILLER L'EVOLUTION DE LA SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-13 19:28

WTIO30 FMEE 131914
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/10/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD)

2.A POSITION 2020/03/13 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 51.7 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 996 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 120 SW: 180 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 100


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: NIL

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/03/14 06 UTC: 15.5 S / 51.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/03/14 18 UTC: 15.7 S / 51.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/03/15 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 52.3 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/03/15 18 UTC: 16.1 S / 53.4 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/03/16 06 UTC: 16.9 S / 55.1 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2020/03/16 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/03/17 18 UTC: 23.2 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
120H: 2020/03/18 18 UTC: 27.9 S / 70.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+

THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS DESPITE
SOME FLUCTUATIONS. RECENTLY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES ALONG WITH OBJECTIVE
ESTIMATES ARE AROUND 35-40 KT. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KT
AND THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED HEROLD BY THE NWS OF MADAGASCAR.

LATEST FIX SINCE 12Z SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM IS DRIFTING WESTWARDS.
WITHIN A BAROMETRIC COL PATTERN, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
LITTLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. LATEST NWP GUIDANCE (AROME, UK
AND IFS) SUGGEST THAT A WESTWARDS DRIFT MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDDE
TO THE SOUTH-WEST. SUNDAY, THE TRACK SHOULD CURVE
EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARDS STEERED BY A DEEP WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY MID-LEVEL
SYNOPTIC FLOW BETWEEN SUCCESSIVE ROSSBY WAVES SURGES IN THE SOUTH AND
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS, THE OUTFLOW IS EXCELLENT AND SHOULD EVEN IMPROVE
EQUATORWARD OVER THE NEXT DAYS WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN ACTIVE KELVIN
WAVE EQUATORWARD, AND AN ENTRANCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY JET
POLEWARD. THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS LARGELY SUFFICIENT OVER 29AOC
SURFACE TEMPERATURE. IN THIS CONTEXT, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST
A SUSTAINED DEEPENING OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS. HOWEVER THE SLOW
FORWARD MOTION EXPECTED WIHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS MAY CAUSE SOME
WEAKENING DUE TO THE COOLING OF THE SST UNDERNEATH. THIS POSSIBILITY
IS NOT SHOWN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST BUT WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR THE
NEXT ADVISORY.
FROM MONDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
SOUTH-WEST DRIVES THE STRENGHTENING OF A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THUS BEGIN TO WEAKEN BEFORE LOOSING ITS
PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS EVENTUALLY.

THE NEW TRACK FORECAST BRING THE SYSTEM CLOSER TO THE EASTERN COASTS
OF MADAGASCAR BETWEEN 14S AND 16S AND IS EXPECTED TO BRING HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS (GUSTS UP
TO 100 KM/H) IS EXPECTED ALONG THE COASTS. THIS SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY
CAUSE SOME MINOR STORM SURGE (20 TO 30 CM) IN SOME EXPOSED AREAS LIKE
THE ANTONGIL BAY. FINALLY, HEAVY RAINS WITH DAILY AMOUNTS THAT COULD
EXCEED 150 MM (LOCALLY EXCEEDING 200MM) ARE EXPECTED BETWEN SAMBAVA
TO THENORTH AND CAP MASOALOA TO THE SOUTH.

AT THE END OF THE WEEK-END AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, THE INHABITANTS OF
THE MASCARENES ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SITUATION.=

>

2020-03-13 18:34

WTIO22 FMEE 131831 CCA
...............CORRECTIVE..............
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 13/03/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 51.7 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 4 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 55
NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/14 AT 06 UTC:
15.5 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/03/14 AT 18 UTC:
15.7 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
CORRECTIVE FOR ADDING MOTION AND SPEED OF TRANSLATION.
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED HEROLD BY THE NWS OF MADAGASCAR.=

>

2020-03-13 18:29

WTIO22 FMEE 131825
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 13/03/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/10 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: FRIDAY 13/03/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HEROLD) 996 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.0 S / 51.7 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: UNDETERMINED

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN A 75 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP
TO 150 NM WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 55
NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 65
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTHERN
SEMI-CIRCLE AND UP TO 95 NM IN THE SOUTH-WESTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/03/14 AT 06 UTC:
15.5 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND = 50 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/03/14 AT 18 UTC:
15.7 S / 51.7 E, MAX WIND = 55 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN NAMED HEROLD BY THE NWS OF MADAGASCAR.=

>