Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for VICKY-20 in Niue, American Samoa, Samoa from 20 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC to 21 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC

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Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for VICKY-20

in Niue, American Samoa, Samoa

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

21/02 20:34 WTPS31PGTW212100

21/02 20:31 WTPS51PGTW212100

21/02 14:13 WTPS51PGTW211500

21/02 14:13 WTPS31PGTW211500

21/02 08:08 WTPS51PGTW210900

21/02 08:07 WTPS31PGTW210900

21/02 03:01 WTPS51PGTW210300

21/02 03:01 WTPS31PGTW210300

20/02 23:31 WTPS51PGTW202300

20/02 23:27 WTPS31PGTW202300

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 212100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 169.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 169.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.0S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.4S 170.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 169.7W.
21FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109
NM NORTH OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A SYSTEM COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH
A POORLY DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), LENDING LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED
TO 35 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0/2.0 FROM
BOTH PGTW AND KNES. GIVEN THE UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-25
KNOTS) AND INCREASINGLY HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT, DISSIPATION IS UNDERWAY
AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, RESULTING IN
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 14 FEET. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 212100
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 200221201611
2020022118 17P VICKY 005 02 150 11 SATL 060
T000 173S 1697W 035 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 190S 1697W 035 R034 060 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 204S 1701W 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211800Z --- NEAR 17.3S 169.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3S 169.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.0S 169.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.4S 170.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
212100Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 169.7W.
21FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 109
NM NORTH OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z
IS 14 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1720021906 128S1758W 15
1720021912 130S1753W 15
1720021918 131S1749W 20
1720022000 132S1744W 25
1720022006 135S1732W 25
1720022012 137S1724W 30
1720022018 144S1714W 40
1720022100 148S1708W 45
1720022106 157S1707W 40
1720022112 164S1703W 40
1720022118 173S1697W 35

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 211500
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 200221125614
2020022112 17P VICKY 004 02 150 08 SATL 060
T000 164S 1703W 040 R034 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 180S 1701W 035 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 196S 1702W 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 170.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 170.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.0S 170.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.6S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 170.3W.
1720021906 128S1758W 15
1720021912 130S1753W 15
1720021918 131S1749W 20
1720022000 132S1744W 25
1720022006 135S1732W 25
1720022012 137S1724W 30
1720022018 144S1714W 40
1720022100 148S1708W 45
1720022106 157S1707W 40
1720022112 164S1703W 40

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY) WARNING NR 004
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
211200Z --- NEAR 16.4S 170.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.4S 170.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 18.0S 170.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 19.6S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8S 170.3W.
21FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (VICKY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164
NM NORTH OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS SIGNIFICANT DECAY IN THE CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE WITH
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS
DIFFICULT TO DISCERN IN THE EIR, RESULTING IN LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 40 KTS,
CONSISTENT WITH THE DVORAK FIXES FROM T2.0-T3.0 (30-45 KTS), BUT THE
DEGRADED CONVECTIVE SIGNATURE SUGGESTS WEAKENING IS IMMINENT. HIGH
(20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS OFFSETTING GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND
WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE TO MAKE THE ENVIRONMENT
UNFAVORABLE. FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 17P WILL TRACK ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, IF NOT SOONER.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211200Z
IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPS32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 210900
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 200221073350
2020022106 17P VICKY 003 01 175 09 SATL 030
T000 157S 1707W 040 R034 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD
T012 174S 1702W 035 R034 050 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 191S 1702W 030
T036 206S 1706W 030
AMP
012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 170.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 170.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.4S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.1S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.6S 170.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 170.6W.
21FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (VICKY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TR
ACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 2106
00Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//
1720021906 128S1758W 15
1720021912 130S1753W 15
1720021918 131S1749W 20
1720022000 132S1744W 25
1720022006 135S1732W 25
1720022012 137S1724W 30
1720022018 144S1714W 40
1720022100 148S1708W 45
1720022106 157S1707W 40

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 210900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210600Z --- NEAR 15.7S 170.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.7S 170.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.4S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 19.1S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 20.6S 170.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1S 170.6W.
21FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (VICKY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 84
NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS (KTS) OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS,
PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THERE IS
FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE INITIAL POSITION, PLACED USING A COMBINATION OF
THE EIR AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY BEFORE THE SUN SET. THE INITIAL INTENSITY FALLS BETWEEN DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5-T3.0 (35-45 KTS). GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND MODERATE
(15-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ARE SUPPORTIVE. HOWEVER, A TONGUE
OF DRIER AIR IS HINDERING CONVECTION ON THE NORTHWEST SIDE. FOR THE
DURATION OF THE FORECAST, TC 17P WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HIGH VWS SHOULD CAUSE DISSIPATION BY
TAU 24. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GALWEM (ERRATIC TRACKER, LIKELY DUE TO
DIFFICULTY IDENTIFYING THE VORTEX), NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 211500Z, 212100Z, 220300Z AND 220900Z.//

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 210300
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 200221024611
2020022100 17P SEVENTEEN 002 01 125 08 SATL 020
T000 148S 1708W 045 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 015 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 163S 1702W 045 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 015 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 175S 1699W 040 R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 020 SW QD 060 NW QD
T036 186S 1701W 035 R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 030 SW QD 070 NW QD
T048 193S 1712W 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 002
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 171.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 171.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.0S 170.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.6S 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.6S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.3S 171.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 171.2W.
20FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
47 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 202300Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
//
1720021906 128S1758W 15
1720021912 130S1753W 15
1720021918 131S1749W 20
1720022000 132S1744W 25
1720022006 135S1732W 25
1720022012 137S1724W 30
1720022018 143S1715W 45

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 210300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
210000Z --- NEAR 14.8S 170.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.8S 170.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 16.3S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 17.5S 169.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
221200Z --- 18.6S 170.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
230000Z --- 19.3S 171.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
210300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 170.6W.
21FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (VICKY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
31 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTIPSECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXPANSION OF DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DESPITE THE
IMPROVEMENT OBSERVED IN VISIBLE IMAGERY, A 210049Z AMSR2 IMAGE
REVEALS POOR OVERALL CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
IS HELD AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5 TO T3.0 (35-45
KNOTS), WHICH IS ABOVE AUTOMATED GUIDANCE. NO RECENT SCATTEROMETRY
IS AVAILABLE TO CONFIRM THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII ESTIMATES. TC
17P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE, AND IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) AND ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BEGIN A GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AT TAU 12, BECOMING
SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 24. BETWEEN TAU 24 TO 48, CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEGRADE, WITH INCREASING VWS. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS 17P WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE SUB-TROPICAL
CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTH (96P), AND POTENTIALLY BE ABSORBED INTO
THIS AREA AS THE COMBINED ENERGY TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD.
HOWEVER, LIMITED NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT.
THE COMBINATION OF POTENTIAL SYSTEM INTERACTION AND HIGH DEGREE OF
SPREAD YIELDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 210000Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 210900Z, 211500Z, 212100Z AND 220300Z.
//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 202300
WARNING ATCG MIL 17P SWP 200220224650
2020022018 17P SEVENTEEN 001 01 125 11 SATL 020
T000 143S 1715W 045 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 015 SW QD 055 NW QD
T012 160S 1704W 045 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 015 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 176S 1700W 040 R034 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 186S 1702W 035 R034 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD
T048 193S 1712W 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 171.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 171.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.0S 170.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.6S 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.6S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.3S 171.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 171.2W.
20FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
47 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 202300Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
//
1720021906 128S1758W 15
1720021912 130S1753W 15
1720021918 131S1749W 20
1720022000 132S1744W 25
1720022006 135S1732W 25
1720022012 137S1724W 30
1720022018 143S1715W 45

>

Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 202300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/200351ZFEB2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (SEVENTEEN) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
201800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 171.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 171.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 16.0S 170.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 17.6S 170.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 18.6S 170.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
221800Z --- 19.3S 171.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
202100Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 171.2W.
20FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 17P (SEVENTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
47 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS A LATE CYCLE 201800Z WARNING BEING ISSUED AT 202300Z. ANIMATED MU
LTISPECTRAL IMAGERY INDICATES A COMPACT CIRCULATION WITHIN THE SPCZ HAS RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATED OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. SCATTEROMETRY DATA AS THE SYSTEM APPROACHED WESTERN SAMOA INDICATED 30 KNOTS,
AND OBSERVATIONS AT MAOTA AND FALEOLO AIRPORTS SUPPORTED THIS ESTIMATE. ADDITIONALLY, DVORAK ESTI
MATES AT 18Z RANGED FROM T1.5 TO T2.0 (25-30 KNOTS). HOWEVER, A 201937Z OBSERVATION FROM PAGO PA
GO FOUND 40 KNOTS SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. THE DVORAK ESTIMATE IS LIKELY UNDER-REPRESENT
ING THE ACTUAL PEAK INTENSITY DUE TO THE COMPACT NATURE OF THE CONVECTIVE CORE. THEREFORE, THE INT
ENSITY IS NOW ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS. TC 17P IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A PERSISTENT TROUGH AND
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW (10-15KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN A GENE
RALLY SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK AT TAU 12, BECOMING SOUTHWARD AFTER TAU 24. AS THE TRACK BEGINS TO
TURN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 24, TC 17P WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER DUE TO INCREASIN
G VWS AND COOLER SST, WEAKENING TO 35 KTS BY TAU 36. INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL LEAD
TO FULL DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH A
184 NM SPREAD AT TAU 12 INCREASING TO 295 NM AT TAU 48. ADDITIONALLY, SOME NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIO
NS DEPICT 17P INTERACTING WITH 96P AFTER TAU 48. THE COMBINATION OF POTENTIAL SYSTEM INTERACTION A
ND HIGH DEGREE OF SPREAD YIELDS LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFI
CANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 202300Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 210300Z, 210900Z, 211500Z AND 212100Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 190400).//

>

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