Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TWELVE-20
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2020-01-26 14:08


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 261500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 22.4S 166.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 166.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.7S 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 166.4W.
26JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
279 NM SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
LOCATED TO THE EAST. BASED ON A 261200Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOWING THE EXPOSED LLCC, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS SET WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY A 260743Z METOP-A BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS WHICH
DEPICTS 25-29 KT WINDS AS THE SYSTEM?S HIGHEST ASSOCIATED WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30

>

2020-01-26 14:07


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 261500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 200126133041
2020012612 12P TWELVE 005 01 145 05 SATL 030
T000 224S 1664W 025
T012 227S 1663W 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 22.4S 166.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 166.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.7S 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 166.4W.
26JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 279 NM
SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET.//
1220012212 143S1730W 15
1220012218 140S1725W 15

>

2020-01-26 14:04


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 22.4S 166.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 166.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.7S 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 166.4W.
26JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
279 NM SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
LOCATED TO THE EAST. BASED ON A 261200Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOWING THE EXPOSED LLCC, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS SET WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY A 260743Z METOP-A BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS WHICH
DEPICTS 25-29 KT WINDS AS THE SYSTEM?S HIGHEST ASSOCIATED WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30
KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-27 CELSIUS), AND MARGINAL
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC 12P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND HAS FULLY DISSIPATED.
AS TC 12P TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE AS THE NOTABLE OUTLIERS. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET.//

>

2020-01-26 14:01


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 261500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 200126133041
2020012612 12P TWELVE 005 01 145 05 SATL 030
T000 224S 1664W 025
T012 227S 1663W 025
AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 22.4S 166.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 166.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 22.7S 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 166.4W.
26JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 279 NM SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKE
D SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY T
HE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENER
ATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET.//
1220012212 143S1730W 15
1220012218 140S1725W 15
1220012300 139S1715W 15
1220012306 140S1709W 15
1220012312 141S1705W 15
1220012318 142S1700W 15
1220012400 144S1697W 15
1220012406 147S1695W 25
1220012412 152S1693W 30
1220012418 162S1692W 30
1220012500 174S1692W 30
1220012506 189S1688W 30
1220012512 203S1681W 35
1220012518 211S1674W 35
1220012600 218S1668W 35
1220012606 220S1667W 30
1220012612 224S1664W 25

>

2020-01-26 02:04


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 260300 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 200126012432
2020012600 12P TWELVE 003 01 140 09 SATL 015
T000 218S 1668W 035 R034 075 NE QD 130 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 227S 1663W 035 R034 065 NE QD 110 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 232S 1661W 035 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 236S 1664W 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 21.8S 166.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 166.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.7S 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-01-26 02:04


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 260300 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 21.8S 166.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 166.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.7S 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.2S 166.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-01-26 02:01


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 21.8S 166.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 166.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.7S 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.2S 166.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.6S 166.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 166.7W.
26JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
238 NM SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A WELL DEFINED, FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE INITIAL POSITION. A 251915Z ASCAT-A PASS INDICATES 30-35 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 35 KNOTS. TC 12P IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE EAST BUT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD AS A LOW-LEVEL
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AFTER TAU 24. TC 12P WILL STRUGGLE
TO CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS INTO AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. SLIGHTLY COOLER (26-27C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
COUPLED WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING ABOVE 30 KTS BY TAU 24
WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN DISSIPATION AROUND TAU 24, AND RESULT
IN DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 36. OVERALL, THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK WITH NUMERICAL MODELS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 12 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//

>

2020-01-26 02:00


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 260300
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 200126012432
2020012600 12P TWELVE 003 01 140 09 SATL 015
T000 218S 1668W 035 R034 075 NE QD 130 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 227S 1663W 035 R034 065 NE QD 110 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 232S 1661W 035 R034 060 NE QD 100 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T036 236S 1664W 030
AMP
024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 21.8S 166.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 140 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8S 166.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.7S 166.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.2S 166.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.6S 166.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 22.0S 166.7W.
26JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238
NM SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.
//
1220012212 143S1730W 15
1220012218 140S1725W 15
1220012300 139S1715W 15
1220012306 140S1709W 15
1220012312 141S1705W 15
1220012318 142S1700W 15
1220012400 144S1697W 15
1220012406 147S1695W 25
1220012412 152S1693W 30
1220012418 162S1692W 30
1220012500 174S1692W 30
1220012506 189S1688W 30
1220012512 203S1681W 35
1220012518 211S1674W 35
1220012600 218S1668W 35

>

2020-01-25 15:03


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 251500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242130ZJAN2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 167.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 167.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.8S 167.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.6S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2020-01-25 14:53


Original Message :

WTPS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242130ZJAN2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 167.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 167.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.8S 167.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.6S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.2S 166.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.6S 167.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 167.7W.
25JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
142 NM SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING UNDER
FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF A 250919Z METOP-B BULLSEYE ASCAT DEPICTING WINDS IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). BASED ON A SWATH OF 35-40 KT WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM
(27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 12P IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 40 KTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING IN TO THE SOUTH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE
FOR TC 12P BY TAU 24. THIS STR WILL SLOWLY TURN TC 12P TO A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
12P IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOL (<26 CELSIUS) SST AND HIGH
(>35 KTS) VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 12. BEYOND THAT, VARIATIONS IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS CAUSE THE
MODELS TO DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TO ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK,
INCREASING MODEL SPREAD TO 70 NM BY TAU 48. OF NOTE, THERE ARE A FEW
OUTLIER SOLUTIONS PRESENTED BY NAVGEM AND ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE
NAVGEM SOLUTION TRACKS TC 12P TO THE SOUTH AT SLOWER SPEEDS PRIOR TO
TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
MAINTAIN A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 242200).//

>

2020-01-25 14:47


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 251500 RRA
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 200125141106
2020012512 12P TWELVE 001 01 150 20 SATL 035
T000 204S 1678W 035 R034 095 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 218S 1673W 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 226S 1670W 035 R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 232S 1669W 035 R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 236S 1674W 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 167.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 167.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.8S 167.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-01-25 14:44


Original Message :

WTPS51 PGTW 251500
WARNING ATCG MIL 12P SWP 200125141106
2020012512 12P TWELVE 001 01 150 20 SATL 035
T000 204S 1678W 035 R034 095 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 218S 1673W 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD
T024 226S 1670W 035 R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD
T036 232S 1669W 035 R034 110 NE QD 070 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 236S 1674W 030
AMP
036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 167.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 167.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 21.8S 167.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 22.6S 167.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 23.2S 166.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 23.6S 167.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 167.7W.
25JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 142 NM SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKE
D SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 2512
00Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
1220012212 143S1730W 15
1220012218 140S1725W 15
1220012300 139S1715W 15
1220012306 140S1709W 15
1220012312 141S1705W 15
1220012318 142S1700W 15
1220012400 144S1697W 15
1220012406 147S1695W 25
1220012412 152S1693W 30
1220012418 162S1692W 30
1220012500 174S1692W 30
1220012506 187S1689W 30
1220012512 204S1678W 35

>