Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESAMI-20
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2020-01-26 20:18

WTXS32 PGTW 262100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ESAMI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ESAMI) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 29.8S 77.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.8S 77.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 30.9S 78.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 30.1S 78.1E.
26JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ESAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1260 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TC 10S. A 261720Z METOP-B MHS 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES A WEAKLY-DEFINED, SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. ANIMATED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE INDICATE THAT TC
11S IS NOW EMBEDDED IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHICH IS

>

2020-01-26 19:58

WTXS32 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ESAMI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ESAMI) WARNING NR 005
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261800Z --- NEAR 29.8S 77.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 29.8S 77.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 30.9S 78.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 30.1S 78.1E.
26JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ESAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1260 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTH DUE TO STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH TC 10S. A 261720Z METOP-B MHS 89GHZ IMAGE
INDICATES A WEAKLY-DEFINED, SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. ANIMATED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND A RECENT ASCAT IMAGE INDICATE THAT TC
11S IS NOW EMBEDDED IN STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, WHICH IS
ADVECTING INTO TC 10S. TC 11S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY
SOUTHEASTWARD BUT IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY BECOME ABSORBED INTO TC
10S. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE INITIAL POSITION AND COMPLEX INTERACTION WITH
TC 10S. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z
IS 10 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DIANE) FINAL WARNING
(WTXS31 PGTW).//
NNNN

>

2020-01-26 12:28

WTIO22 FMEE 261218
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 010/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/01/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 7 (EX-ESAMI) 997 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 28.7 S / 77.3 E
(TWENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 160 NM WITHIN THE ESATERN
SEMI-CERCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/27 AT 00 UTC:
30.8 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/01/27 AT 12 UTC:
31.9 S / 79.8 E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BE MONITORING INTO FQIO20 AND
FQIO21 FMEE WARNINGS.=

>

2020-01-26 09:11

WTXS32 PGTW 260900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ESAMI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ESAMI) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260600Z --- NEAR 27.9S 77.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S 77.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 29.9S 78.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 30.9S 79.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2020-01-26 08:52

WTXS32 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ESAMI) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ESAMI) WARNING NR 004
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   260600Z --- NEAR 27.9S 77.3E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 22 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.9S 77.3E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 29.9S 78.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 30.9S 79.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 31.4S 79.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 28.4S 77.6E.
26JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ESAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1190 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 22 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. A 260401Z GMI 36 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING IN FROM THE NORTH AND A
FORMATIVE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE MSI ALONG WITH EXTRAPOLATIONS OF
A PARTIAL 260342Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE
IMAGE LEND GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE 260342Z ASCAT
DEPICTED 35-40 KT WINDS PRESENT IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC,
PLACING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KTS. TC 11S IS
IN AN OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH HIGH (25-30 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS), UNFAVORABLE (25-26 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
(SST), AND MARGINAL OUTFLOW ALOFT. NOTABLY, THE OUTFLOW OF TC 10S HAS
BEEN IMPACTING TC 11S, INHIBITING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE. TC 11S IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF WEAK EQUATORIAL
RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND EAST. THROUGH TAU 24, TC 11S WILL TRANSIT
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, WEAKENING AS VWS CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND SST
COOL BELOW 25 DEGREES CELSIUS. THESE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL
CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO BEGIN DISSIPATING AT TAU 24 AS IT BEGINS TO CURVE
SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A BUILDING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.
TC 11S WILL DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 36 AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE
OUTER PERIPHERY OF TC 10S APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK WHICH LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
262100Z AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DIANE) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-01-26 06:39

WTIO31 FMEE 260635 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/7/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.4 S / 75.6 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/01/2020 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 27/01/2020 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 27/01/2020 18 UTC: 32.1 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

>

2020-01-26 06:39

WTIO30 FMEE 260635 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/7/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.4 S / 75.6 E
(TWENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/26 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/01/27 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/01/27 18 UTC: 32.1 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

>

2020-01-26 06:36

WTIO31 FMEE 260635
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 9/7/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 26/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 27.4 S / 75.6 E
(VINGT SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 995 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/01/2020 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 27/01/2020 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 27/01/2020 18 UTC: 32.1 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LA CONVECTION PROFONDE A REPRIS DANS LE
QUADRANT NORD-EST DE LA CIRCULATION EN FIN DE NUIT, MAIS LE SYSTEME
PRESENTE TOUJOURS UNE CONFIGURATION CISAILLEE AVEC LE CENTRE
COMPLETEMENT EXPOSE EN BORDURE OUEST-SUD-OUEST DE LA CONVECTION.

EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT MAJEUR :
ESAMI RESTE ATTIRE VERS LE SUD-EST PAR LE PASSAGE D'UN THALWEG DES
MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES EST MODEREE.

ESAMI RESTE POUR LE MOMENT EN BORDURE NORD DU JET, SOUMIS A UNE
CONTRAINTE D'OUEST-NORD-OUEST DE 24KT (ESTIMATION CIMSS A 00Z).
CEPENDANT, L'ENERGIE OCEANIQUE EST DEJA LIMITEE ET VIENDRA A MANQUER
AU SUD DE 26S.

AUJOURD'HUI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PASSER PROGRESSIVEMENT SOUS L'AXE DU
JET D'ALTITUDE ET SUBIR UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD-OUEST DE
PLUS EN PLUS FORT.EN COURS DE JOURNEE, LE SYSTEME EST EGALEMENT PREVU
COMMENCER A INTERAGIR AVEC LA ZONE BAROCLINE ASSOCIA E ET AINSI
COMMENCER A PERDRE SES CARACTA RISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICAL.
LUNDI, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE COMBLER RAPIDEMENT.=

>

2020-01-26 06:36

WTIO30 FMEE 260635
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/7/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.4 S / 75.6 E
(TWENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 995 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 190 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/26 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 77.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/01/27 06 UTC: 31.7 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/01/27 18 UTC: 32.1 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, DEEP CONVECTION HAS REBUILT AT THE END OF NIGHT,
BUT THE SYSTEM REMAINS SHEARED WITH THE CENTRE COMPLETLY EXPOSED
WEST-SOUTH-WEST TO CONVECTION.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, NO MAJOR CHANGE : ESAMI REMAINS ATTRACTED
SOUTH-EASTWARD BY THE PASSAGE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE SOUTH.
MODEL DISPERSION REMAINS MODERATE.

ESAMI REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE JET FOR NOW, WITH A
WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT OF 24 KT (CIMSS ESTIMATE AT
00Z). HOWEVER, OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS ALREADY LIMITED AND WILL
COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR SOUTH OF 26.

TODAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLIDE UNDER THE UPPER JET AXIS AND
EXPERIENCE A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR STRONGER AND STRONGER.
THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE ASSOCIATED
BAROCLINIC AREA AND BEGIN TO LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.
FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO FILL UP QUICKLY.=

>

2020-01-26 06:11

WTIO22 FMEE 260600
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 009/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/01/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI) 995 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 27.4 S / 75.6 E
(TWENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM WITHIN THE NORTHESATERN
QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 60 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/26 AT 18 UTC:
30.4 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H, VALID 2020/01/27 AT 06 UTC:
31.7 S / 79.6 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-01-26 00:07

WTIO31 FMEE 260003 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/7/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.5 S / 75.4 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/01/2020 12 UTC: 28.7 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
24H: 27/01/2020 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 27/01/2020 12 UTC: 30.8 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

>

2020-01-26 00:07

WTIO30 FMEE 260003 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/7/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 75.4 E
(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/26 12 UTC: 28.7 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
24H: 2020/01/27 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/01/27 12 UTC: 30.8 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

>

2020-01-26 00:05

WTIO31 FMEE 260003
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 8/7/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 26/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 26.5 S / 75.4 E
(VINGT SIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE QUINZE DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/01/2020 12 UTC: 28.7 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
24H: 27/01/2020 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT
36H: 27/01/2020 12 UTC: 30.8 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, SOUS L'EFFET DE L'AIR SEC, LA
CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE S'EST DA GRADA E AVEC UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE
QUI S'EST BIEN REDUITE. LA CIRCULATION EST MAINTENANT PARTIELLEMENT
EXPOSA E AVEC UN CENTRE APPARENT.

EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT MAJEUR :
ESAMI RESTE ATTIRE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST PUIS LE SUD-EST PAR LE PASSAGE
D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES
EST MODEREE.

ESAMI RESTE POUR LE MOMENT EN BORDURE NORD DU JET, SOUMIS A UNE
CONTRAINTE D'OUEST DE 17KT (ESTIMATION CIMSS A 18Z). CEPENDANT,
L'ENERGIE OCEANIQUE EST DEJA LIMITEE ET VIENDRA A MANQUER AU SUD DE
26S. AUJOURD'HUI, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PASSER PROGRESSIVEMENT SOUS
L'AXE DU JET D'ALTITUDE ET SUBIR UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE
NORD-OUEST DE PLUS EN PLUS FORT. DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LE
SYSTEME EST PREVU COMMENCER A INTERAGIR AVEC LA ZONE BAROCLINE
ASSOCIA E ET AINSI PERDRE SES CARACTA RISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICAL.
LUNDI, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU SE COMBLER RAPIDEMENT EN SE FONDANT DANS
LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE DU SYSTEME TROPICAL DIANE.=

>

2020-01-26 00:05

WTIO30 FMEE 260003
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/7/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 75.4 E
(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/26 12 UTC: 28.7 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
24H: 2020/01/27 00 UTC: 30.4 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
36H: 2020/01/27 12 UTC: 30.8 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.0 CI=2.5

IN THE LAST 6 HOURS, UNDER THE EFFECT OF DRY AIR, THE CLOUD PATTERN
WAS DETERIORATED WITH DEEP CONVECTION THAT WAS REDUCED. THE
CIRCULATION IS NOW PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH AN APPARENT CENTER.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, NO MAJOR CHANGE : ESAMI REMAINS ATTRACTED
EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD BY THE PASSAGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE SOUTH. MODEL DISPERSION REMAINS MODERATE.

ESAMI REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE JET FOR NOW, WITH A
WESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT OF 12 KT (CIMSS ESTIMATE AT 12Z). HOWEVER,
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS ALREADY LIMITED AND WILL COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR
SOUTH OF 26. SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLIDE UNDER THE UPPER JET AXIS
AND EXPERIENCE A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR STRONGER AND
STRONGER. SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC AREA AND LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO FILL UP
QUICKLY AS IT MERGES WITH THE DIANE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION.=

>

2020-01-26 00:04

WTIO22 FMEE 260001
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 26/01/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 008/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SUNDAY 26/01/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 26.5 S / 75.4 E
(TWENTY SIX    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 12 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM WITHIN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/26 AT 12 UTC:
28.7 S / 76.1 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP
24H, VALID 2020/01/27 AT 00 UTC:
30.4 S / 77.4 E, MAX WIND = 30 KT, FILLING UP

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-01-25 21:13

WTXS32 PGTW 252100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ESAMI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ESAMI) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z --- NEAR 25.6S 74.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 74.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 26.8S 75.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 28.0S 76.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-01-25 20:45

WTXS32 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ESAMI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ESAMI) WARNING NR 003
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251800Z --- NEAR 25.6S 74.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 25.6S 74.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 26.8S 75.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 28.0S 76.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 29.1S 76.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 30.1S 75.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 25.9S 74.8E.
25JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ESAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1011 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
WITH INTENSE CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 251816Z GMI 36GHZ
IMAGE THAT DEPICTS A WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH SHALLOW BANDS OF CONVECTION IN THE NORTH AND SOUTH
QUADRANTS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ALSO PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
HEDGED ABOVE A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KTS) BASED
ON A 251816Z ASCAT-A DATA THAT REFLECTS 40KT WINDS TO THE EAST OF
THE CIRCULATION. ESAMI IS TRACKING ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF WEAK
EQUATORIAL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AS IT CONTINUES TO TRAVERSE THROUGH
AN INCREASINGLY MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT. MARGINAL (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE, SURPASSING 30 KTS BY TAU
12. ADDITIONALLY, MARGINAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NOTABLY
COOLER (25-26C) AND WILL CONTINUE TO DROP BELOW 24C BY TAU 24,
HINDERING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THESE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE ESAMI TO BEGIN DISSIPATING AT TAU 36 AS IT
BEGINS TO CURVE SOUTHWESTWARD DUE TO INTERACTION WITH A BUILDING
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. ESAMI WILL THEN DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48
AS IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF TC DIANE APPROACHING
FROM THE NORTHWEST (380 NM DISTANCE BETWEEN SYSTEMS AT TAU 48).
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 260900Z AND 262100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DIANE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-01-25 18:11

WTIO31 FMEE 251806 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/7/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.1 S / 74.6 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/01/2020 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 000 , TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 26/01/2020 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 27/01/2020 06 UTC: 30.3 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

>

2020-01-25 18:11

WTIO30 FMEE 251806 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/7/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 74.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/26 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 000 , MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/01/27 06 UTC: 30.3 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 000 , FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

>

2020-01-25 18:08

WTIO31 FMEE 251806
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 7/7/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 25/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 25.1 S / 74.6 E
(VINGT CINQ DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE QUATORZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/01/2020 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 000 , TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 26/01/2020 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
36H: 27/01/2020 06 UTC: 30.3 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 000 , DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, LA CONFIGURATION NUAGEUSE A PEU EVOLUE.
MAIS A LA FAVEUR DU CYCLE DIURNE, LA CONVECTION S'EST RENFORCA E DANS
LE QUADRANT NORD DE LA CIRCULATION.

EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT MAJEUR :
ESAMI RESTE ATTIRE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST PUIS LE SUD-EST PAR LE PASSAGE
D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES
EST MODEREE.

ESAMI RESTE POUR LE MOMENT EN BORDURE NORD DU JET, SOUMIS A UNE
FAIBLE  CONTRAINTE D'OUEST DE 12KT (ESTIMATION CIMSS A 12Z).
CEPENDANT, L'ENERGIE OCEANIQUE EST DEJA LIMITEE ET VIENDRA A MANQUER
AU SUD DE 26S. AINSI, AVEC L'AIR SEC OMNIPRA SENT EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT PLAFONNER AUJOURD'HUI.
DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PASSER PROGRESSIVEMENT SOUS L'AXE DU JET
D'ALTITUDE ET SUBIR UN CISAILLEMENT VERTICAL DE NORD-OUEST DE PLUS EN
PLUS FORT. DANS LA NUIT DE DIMANCHE A LUNDI, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU
COMMENCER A INTERAGIR AVEC LA ZONE BAROCLINE ASSOCIA  ET AINSI PERDRE
SES CARACTERISTIQUES PUREMENT TROPICAL. LUNDI, LE SYSTEME EST PREVU
SE COMBLER RAPIDEMENT EN SE FONDANT DANS LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE DU
SYSTEME TROPICAL DIANE.=

>

2020-01-25 18:08

WTIO30 FMEE 251806
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/7/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 74.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/26 06 UTC: 26.5 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 000 , MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 000 ,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/01/27 06 UTC: 30.3 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 000 , FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST 6H, CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED A LITTLE. BUT IN FAVOR OF
THE DIURNAL CYCLE, DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY HAS STRENGTHENED WITHIN
THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, NO MAJOR CHANGE : ESAMI REMAINS ATTRACTED
EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD BY THE PASSAGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE SOUTH. MODEL DISPERSION REMAINS MODERATE.

ESAMI REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE JET FOR NOW, WITH A WEAK
WESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT OF 12 KT (CIMSS ESTIMATE AT 12Z). HOWEVER,
OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS ALREADY LIMITED AND WILL COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR
SOUTH OF 26. SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLIDE UNDER THE UPPER JET AXIS
AND EXPERIENCE A NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR STRONGER AND
STRONGER. SUNDAY NIGHT, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO INTERACT
WITH THE ASSOCIATED BAROCLINIC AREA AND LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS. FROM MONDAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO FILL UP
QUICKLY AS IT MERGES WITH THE DIANE CLOCKWISE CIRCULATION.=

>

2020-01-25 18:08

WTIO22 FMEE 251805
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VII AND METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2020
AT 1800 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 007/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/01/2020 AT 1800 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 25.1 S / 74.6 E
(TWENTY FIVE    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER WITHIN 50 MN RADIUS FROM THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO
150 NM WITHIN THE NORTHERN QUADRANT.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 40 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 60
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 80 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/26 AT 06 UTC:
26.5 S / 76.0 E, MAX WIND = 0 , MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/01/26 AT 18 UTC:
28.6 S / 77.3 E, MAX WIND = 0 , POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-01-25 12:08

WTIO31 FMEE 251205 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/7/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.4 S / 73.6 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 140 SO: 30 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 30 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/01/2020 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 26/01/2020 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 27/01/2020 00 UTC: 30.1 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 27/01/2020 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

>

2020-01-25 12:08

WTIO30 FMEE 251205 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/7/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.4 S / 73.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 140 SW: 30 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/26 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/27 00 UTC: 30.1 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/27 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

>

2020-01-25 12:06

WTIO31 FMEE 251205
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 6/7/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 25/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.4 S / 73.6 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE TREIZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 35 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 140 SO: 30 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 30 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 26/01/2020 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 26/01/2020 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 27/01/2020 00 UTC: 30.1 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 27/01/2020 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, L'AIR SEC A FINALEMENT ATTEINT LE CENTRE
DU SYSTEME, FAVORISA  PAR UNE CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE. SUR LES DERNIERES IMAGES, LE CENTRE DE BASSES COUCHES
APPARAIT CLAIREMENT EN LIMITE SUD DE LA CONVECTION QUI ELLE EST
REJETEE SUR LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD. L'ESTIMATION D'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME
EST EN COHERENCE AVEC L'ANALYSE DVORAK ET LES DONNEES OBJECTIVES
DISPONIBLES.

EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT MAJEUR :
ESAMI RESTE ATTIRE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST PUIS LE SUD-EST PAR LE PASSAGE
D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES
EST MODEREE.

ESAMI RESTE POUR LE MOMENT EN BORDURE NORD DU JET, SOUMIS A UNE
FAIBLE  CONTRAINTE D'OUEST-SUD-OUEST DE 10KT (ESTIMATION CIMSS).
CEPENDANT, L'ENERGIE OCEANIQUE EST DEJA LIMITEE ET VIENDRA A MANQUER
AU SUD DE 26S. AINSI, AVEC L'AIR SEC OMNIPRA SENT EN MOYENNE
TROPOSPHERE, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT PLAFONNER AUJOURD'HUI.
DIMANCHE, LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT PASSER PROGRESSIVEMENT SOUS L'AXE DU JET
D'ALTITUDE. LES MODELES PROPOSENT POURTANT UN MAINTIEN DU COUP DE
VENT, PROBALEMENT ALIMENTA  PAR DES PROCESSUS BAROCLINE. CELA INDUIT
UNE CERTAINE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE.
EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT SE FONDRE DANS UNE
LIMITE FRONTALE.=

>

2020-01-25 12:06

WTIO30 FMEE 251205
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/7/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.4 S / 73.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 140 SW: 30 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/26 00 UTC: 25.8 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 12 UTC: 28.0 S / 76.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/27 00 UTC: 30.1 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/27 12 UTC: 30.4 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5

OVER THE LAST 6H, DRY AIR FINALLY REACHED THE CENTER OF THE SYSTEM,
FAVORED BY A MID-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT. OVER THE LAST SAT
IMAGES, THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER CLEARLY APPEARS ON THE
SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE CONVECTION, WHICH IS NOW CONCENTRATED IN THE
NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE DVORAK ANALYSIS AND AVAILABLE OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, NO MAJOR CHANGE : ESAMI REMAINS ATTRACTED
EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD BY THE PASSAGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE SOUTH. MODEL DISPERSION REMAINS MODERATE.

ESAMI REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE JET FOR NOW, WITH A WEAK
WEST-SOUTH-WESTERLY SHEAR CONSTRAINT OF 10 KT (CIMSS ESTIMATE).
HOWEVER, OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS ALREADY LIMITED AND WILL COMPLETELY
DISAPPEAR SOUTH OF 26. THUS, WITH THE OMNIPRESENT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR,
THE SYSTEM INTENSITY SHOULD NOT INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. SUNDAY,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLIDE UNDER THE UPPER JET AXIS. THE AVAILABLE MODEL
GUIDANCE ALTHOUGH SUGGEST A STATIONARY INTENSITY WITH STILL GALE
WINDS, PROBABLY FUELED BY BAROCLINIC PROCESSES. THIS INDUCES A
MODERATE UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL LIMIT.=

>

2020-01-25 12:04

WTIO20 FMEE 251203
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2020
AT 1200 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 006/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/01/2020 AT 1200 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.4 S / 73.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXTENDS UP TO 150 NM WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO 15
NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 15
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/26 AT 00 UTC:
25.8 S / 75.1 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/01/26 AT 12 UTC:
28.0 S / 76.4 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-01-25 09:30

WTXS32 PGTW 250900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ESAMI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ESAMI) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z --- NEAR 24.2S 72.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 72.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 25.6S 74.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 27.2S 75.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2020-01-25 09:08

WTXS32 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ESAMI) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ESAMI) WARNING NR 002
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   250600Z --- NEAR 24.2S 72.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 24.2S 72.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 25.6S 74.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 27.2S 75.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 28.8S 76.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   270600Z --- 30.0S 77.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   280600Z --- 29.8S 75.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   290600Z --- 31.1S 70.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 24.5S 73.1E.
25JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ESAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 890
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF CONVECTION
OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF A 250451Z GMI 36 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ALONG WITH
TIGHTLY-WRAPPING LOW LEVEL BANDING IN MSI, THE INITIAL POSITION IS
PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 45 KTS
BASED ON A 250402Z PARTIAL METOP-A ASCAT IMAGE REVEALING A SWATH OF
40-45 KT WINDS WITHIN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND IS SUPPORTED BY
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 BY PGTW, FMEE, AND KNES.
TC 11S IS TRACKING THROUGH A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE (15-20
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WARM (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE (SST), AND ESTABLISHED DIVERGENCE ALOFT. BEING STEERED BY
A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH, TC 11S IS TRACKING EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN THIS TRACK THROUGH TAU 24.
AFTER THIS, THE SYSTEM WILL TURN TO A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 48 WITH THE ALONG-TRACK SPEED SLOWING AS THE STEERING
RIDGE TO THE NORTH BEGINS TO WEAKEN. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO
THE SOUTH WILL BUILD IN AND TAKE OVER AS THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE
FOR TC 11S, RESULTING IN THE SHARP RECURVE TO THE WEST BETWEEN TAU 48
AND 72. THE TIMING AND SPEED OF THIS TRACK CHANGE VARIES BETWEEN THE
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS. TC 11S WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 AS
COOLING SST AND INCREASING VWS (>40 KTS) IMPACT THE SYSTEM, WITH
DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 96. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE COMPLEX STEERING ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 252100Z AND 260900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DIANE)
WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2020-01-25 06:48

WTIO31 FMEE 250642 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/7/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 25/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.1 S / 72.6 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 140 SO: 30 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 30 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/01/2020 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 26/01/2020 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 26/01/2020 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 27/01/2020 06 UTC: 30.8 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5/CI=3.0-

>

2020-01-25 06:48

WTIO30 FMEE 250642 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/7/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.1 S / 72.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 140 SW: 30 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/25 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/26 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/27 06 UTC: 30.8 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5/CI=3.0-

>

2020-01-25 06:45

WTIO31 FMEE 250642
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 5/7/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION A 0600 UTC LE 25/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 24.1 S / 72.6 E
(VINGT QUATRE DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE DOUZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 10 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 994 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 140 SO: 30 NO: 140
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 30 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/01/2020 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 26/01/2020 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 26/01/2020 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 27/01/2020 06 UTC: 30.8 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
SE COMBLANT

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=2.5/CI=3.0-

AU COURS DES DERNIERES 6H, L'AIR SEC A NETTEMENT GAGNE PAR L'OUEST ET
A COMMENCE A ROGNER LA STRUCTURE DE PETIT CDO. LES SOMMETS NUAGEUX SE
SONT EGALEMENT RECHAUFFES. LA PASSE ASCAT-A DE 0430Z CE MATIN MONTRE
BIEN LA PRESENCE DE COUP DE VENT 35/40KT SUR UNE LARGE ZONE MAIS
CONCENTREE SUR LE DEMI-CERCLE EST. LES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES WINDSAT DE
0052Z ET GPM DE 0451Z MONTRENT BIEN LA PROGRESSION DE L'AIR SEC SUR
LE DEMI-CERCLE OUEST AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, ALORS QUE LA
CONVECTION RESISTE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE NORD-EST.

EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT MAJEUR :
ESAMI RESTE ATTIRE VERS L'EST-SUD-EST PUIS LE SUD-EST PAR LE PASSAGE
D'UN THALWEG DES MOYENNES LATITUDES AU SUD. LA DISPERSION DES MODELES
EST MODEREE.

ESAMI RESTE POUR LE MOMENT EN BORDURE NORD DU JET, SANS CONTRAINTE
CISAILLEE SIGNIFICATIVE. CEPENDANT, L'ENERGIE OCEANIQUE EST DEJA
LIMITEE ET VIENT A MANQUER AU SUD DE 26S. AINSI, AVEC L'AIR SEC
OMNIPRA SENT EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE, L'INTENSITE DU SYSTEME DEVRAIT
PLAFONNER AUJOURD'HUI. DIMANCHE, LE CISAILLEMENT D'OUEST POURRAIT
AUGMENTER SI LE SYSTEME PLONGE SUFFISAMMENT SUD, CE QUI INDUIT UNE
CERTAINE INCERTITUDE SUR LA PREVISION D'INTENSITE.
EN DEBUT DE SEMAINE, LE MINIMUM RESIDUEL DEVRAIT SE FONDRE DANS UNE
LIMITE FRONTALE.=

>

2020-01-25 06:45

WTIO30 FMEE 250642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/7/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.1 S / 72.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/3.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 140 SW: 30 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 30 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/25 18 UTC: 25.2 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/26 18 UTC: 28.6 S / 77.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/27 06 UTC: 30.8 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=2.5/CI=3.0-

OVER THE LAST 6H, DRY AIR CLEARLY BEGAN TO WEAR THE CDO AWAY,
INVADING  FROM THE WEST. CLOUD TOPS HAVE ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY WARMED.
0430Z ASCAT-A SWATH SHOWED 35/40KT GALE FORCE WINDS OVER A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE ONLY. COMPARISON OF
0052Z WINDSAT AND 0451Z GPM MW IMAGES SHOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE DRY
AIR OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE OVER THE LAST HOURS, WHILE
CONVECTION RESISTS IN THE NORTH-EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, NO MAJOR CHANGE : ESAMI REMAINS ATTRACTED
EAST-SOUTH-EASTWARD THEN SOUTH-EASTWARD BY THE PASSAGE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IN THE SOUTH. MODEL DISPERSION REMAINS MODERATE.

ESAMI REMAINS ON THE NORTHERN BORDER OF THE JET FOR NOW, WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR CONSTRAINT YET. HOWEVER, OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS
ALREADY LIMITED AND WILL COMPLETELY DISAPPEAR SOUTH OF 26. THUS, WITH
THE OMNIPRESENT MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY SHOULD NOT
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY. SUNDAY, THE WESTERLY SHEAR COULD
INCREASE IF THE SYSTEM GOES SOUTH ENOUGH, WHICH INDUCE A MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST.
IN THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, THE RESIDUAL LOW SHOULD MERGE WITH A
FRONTAL LIMIT.=

>

2020-01-25 06:15

WTIO20 FMEE 250610
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2020
AT 0600 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 005/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/01/2020 AT 0600 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI) 994 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.1 S / 72.6 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 0600 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 10 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 35 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER
EXTENDING UP TO 150 NM WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
15 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 35 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN A 15
NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTRE, EXTENDING UP TO 75 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN
AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANTS, AND UP TO 130 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/25 AT 18 UTC:
25.2 S / 74.1 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/01/26 AT 06 UTC:
26.6 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND = 35 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-01-25 01:25

WTIO31 FMEE 250107 RRA
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/7/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.5 S / 71.6 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 90 SO: 0 NO: 60
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/01/2020 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 26/01/2020 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 26/01/2020 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 27/01/2020 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

>

2020-01-25 01:25

WTIO30 FMEE 250107 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/7/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5 S / 71.6 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 90 SW: 0 NW: 60
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/25 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/26 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/27 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

>

2020-01-25 01:23

WTIO31 FMEE 250107
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN
INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/7/20192020
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 25/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.5 S / 71.6 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES CINQ SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES SIX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: EST-SUD-EST 11 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 993 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 90 SO: 0 NO: 60
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SO: 0 NO: 0


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 25/01/2020 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 26/01/2020 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 26/01/2020 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE
TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 27/01/2020 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION
RESIDUELLE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=2.5+

LA CONFIGURATION SATELLITE EN CDO S'EST MAINTENUE CETTE NUIT AVEC
QUELQUES FLUCTUATIONS SUR LA TEMPERATURE DES SOMMETS. LES DONNEES
MICRO-ONDES RECENTES DE FIN DE NUIT MONTRENT UNE CONVECTION PROFONDE
S'ORGANISANT EN BANDE INCURVEE DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST.
L'EXPLOITATION DES DONNEES A HAUTE RESOLUTION DE L'ASCAT D'HIER SOIR
PERMET DE VALIDER DES VENTS FIABLES A 35/40 KT A CE MOMENT LA.
L'INTENSITE COURANTE A 40 KT SE BASE SUR LA FOURCHETTE HAUTE DES
ESTIMATIONS DVORAK DISPONIBLES (2.0-3.0). ESAMI A DONC ETE BAPTISE A
00Z PAR LE SERVICE METEOROLOGIQUE DE MAURICE.

EN TERME DE PREVISION DE TRAJECTOIRE, PAS DE CHANGEMENT : LE FLUX
D'OUEST EN MOYENNE TROPOSPHERE DIRIGE UNE TRAJECTOIRE ATYPIQUE VERS
L'EST-SUD-EST PUIS LE SUD-EST AU COURS DES PROCHAINES 48H. LES
DIFFERENTES GUIDANCES DISPONIBLES SONT EN BONNE ACCORD SUR CETTE
TRAJECTOIRE.

LES CONDITIONS ENVIRONNEMENTALES SONT ENCORE RELATIVEMENT FAVORABLES
A UNE POURSUITE DE L'INTENSIFICATION MAIS LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE EST
EN FAIT LE VRAI PREMIER FACTEUR LIMITANT A COURT TERME. BIEN QUE NON
REFLETEE DANS LA PREVISION, UNE INTENSIFICATION ADDITIONNEL EST
POSSIBLE ENCORE AUJOURD'HUI AVANT UN AFFAIBLISSEMENT GRADUEL PAR
PERTE DE CARBURANT.=

>

2020-01-25 01:23

WTIO30 FMEE 250107
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/7/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI)

2.A POSITION 2020/01/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5 S / 71.6 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 170 SE: 90 SW: 0 NW: 60
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 0


7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/25 12 UTC: 24.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/26 00 UTC: 25.6 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/01/26 12 UTC: 27.6 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/01/27 00 UTC: 30.0 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+

THE CDO CLOUD PATTERN HAS MAINTAINED LAST NIGHT WITH SOME
FLUCTUATIONS ON THE CLOUD TOPS TEMPERATURE. RECENT MW DATA REVEALS
THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS ORGANISED IN A CURVED BAND OVER THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. HIGH RESOLUTION ASCAT DATA FROM LAST NIGHT
SUGGEST BELIEVABLE 35/40 KT WINDS BY THAT TIME. THE FINAL INTENSITY
IS SET AT 40 KT AT THE UPPER BOUND OF ALL AVAILABLE DVORAK ESTIMATES
THAT RANGE FROM 2.0 TO 3.0. THERFORE, THE SYSTEM WAS NAMED ESAMI BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OF MAURITIUS.

IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, NO CHANGE : THE WESTERLY FLOW IN THE
MID-TROPISPHERE DIRECTS AN ATYPICAL TRACK TOWARDS EAST-SOUTHEAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCES AVAILABLE ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS TRACK.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL RATHER GOOD FOR FURTHER
INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL IS THE VERY FIRST
LIMITING FACTOR AT SHORT RANGE. EVEN IT IS NOT MENTIONNED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST, SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY
BEFORE SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING DUE TO A LACK OF OCEANIC CONTAIN.=

>

2020-01-25 00:33

WTIO20 FMEE 250027
SECURITE
GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S)
ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER/LA REUNION 25/01/2020
AT 0000 UTC.
WARNING NUMBER: 004/7 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT)
(WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40. STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND)
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCAL (HPA)
(INDICATIVE FIGURE).

GALE WARNING
BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: SATURDAY 25/01/2020 AT 0000 UTC.

PHENOMENON: MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 7 (ESAMI) 993 HPA
POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.5 S / 71.6 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

THREAT AREAS:
SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS FROM THE CENTER
EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM WITHIN THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND VERY ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS EXTENDING UP TO
35 NM IN THE SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 40 NM IN THE
NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS EXTENDING UP
TO 35 NM IN THE NORTH-WESTERN QUADRANT, UP TO 50 NM IN THE
SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT AND UP TO 90 NM IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.
STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY:
12H, VALID 2020/01/25 AT 12 UTC:
24.2 S / 73.6 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM
24H, VALID 2020/01/26 AT 00 UTC:
25.6 S / 75.5 E, MAX WIND = 40 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM

OTHER INFORMATION:
NIL=

>

2020-01-24 21:22

WTXS32 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 23.2S 70.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 70.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 24.5S 72.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 25.8S 74.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 27.1S 75.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 28.2S 77.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 29.1S 77.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 28.9S 74.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 71.2E.
24JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 11S (ELEVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
764 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION OBSCURING A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCLUATION
CETNER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION AND INTENSITY ARE PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON TIMELY 1648Z ASCAT-A DATA THAT REVEALS 35
KTS WINDS WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED LLCC. TC 11S IS TRANSITING A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM
(26-27C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATUES AND ESTABLISHED DIFFLUENCE ALOFT,
OFFSET BY MODERATE (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 11S IS
TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NEAR-EQUITORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH. GLOBAL DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT TC 11S WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND
BEGIN TO SLOW AS THE PREDOMINANT STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS
AND THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH RIDGING TO THE SOUTH. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD IT WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE AS IT
EXPERIENCES HIGHER VWS IN EXCESS OF 30 KTS BY TAU 36. BY TAU 72, VWS
WILL INCREASE TO > 40KTS AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INCREASING VWS
ALONG WITH COOLER (<25 C) SST BY TAU 72 WILL CAUSE TC 11S TO BEGIN
DISSPIATING OVER WATER. AT THIS TIME, THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH THE PERIPERY OF TC 10S TO THE WEST. THIS INTERACTION,
ALONG WITH FORCING BY RIDGING TO THE SOUTH, WILL CAUSE A SHARP
RECURVE TO THE WEST. INCREASED VWS, LOWER SST AND CONVERGENT FLOW
ALOFT DUE TO THE INCOMING TROUGH AND INTERACTION WITH 10S WILL
RESULT IN DISSIPATION OVER WATER BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DIANE) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2020-01-24 21:16

WTXS32 PGTW 242100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNING NR 001
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 23.2S 70.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 70.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 24.5S 72.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 25.8S 74.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

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