Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LORENZO-19
in Portugal, Ireland, United Kingdom,

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2019-10-02 15:58

WTNT82 EGRR 021557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 124.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2019 0 14.0N 124.0W 1007 24
0000UTC 03.10.2019 12 14.2N 124.1W 1005 27
1200UTC 03.10.2019 24 13.7N 124.9W 1005 26
0000UTC 04.10.2019 36 13.9N 125.1W 1005 23
1200UTC 04.10.2019 48 14.6N 125.6W 1005 25
0000UTC 05.10.2019 60 15.3N 126.5W 1005 26
1200UTC 05.10.2019 72 16.5N 126.9W 1005 28
0000UTC 06.10.2019 84 17.5N 127.8W 1000 40
1200UTC 06.10.2019 96 18.3N 129.4W 1001 42
0000UTC 07.10.2019 108 19.0N 131.4W 1002 40
1200UTC 07.10.2019 120 19.3N 133.7W 1004 36
0000UTC 08.10.2019 132 19.4N 136.1W 1005 31
1200UTC 08.10.2019 144 19.1N 138.4W 1006 28

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 42.6N 28.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2019 0 42.6N 28.2W 968 55
0000UTC 03.10.2019 12 48.9N 19.9W 974 48
1200UTC 03.10.2019 24 53.5N 13.7W 972 48
0000UTC 04.10.2019 36 54.2N 9.4W 980 47
1200UTC 04.10.2019 48 51.5N 3.5W 1000 34
0000UTC 05.10.2019 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.9N 132.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2019 24 13.9N 132.5W 1005 27
0000UTC 04.10.2019 36 13.1N 132.7W 1005 30
1200UTC 04.10.2019 48 12.5N 132.4W 1006 25
0000UTC 05.10.2019 60 12.7N 132.2W 1006 24
1200UTC 05.10.2019 72 12.8N 131.8W 1007 24
0000UTC 06.10.2019 84 13.2N 131.2W 1006 34
1200UTC 06.10.2019 96 13.6N 131.1W 1007 38
0000UTC 07.10.2019 108 14.0N 131.6W 1007 30
1200UTC 07.10.2019 120 14.8N 131.9W 1008 36
0000UTC 08.10.2019 132 15.8N 132.9W 1008 30
1200UTC 08.10.2019 144 16.9N 134.8W 1008 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 33.5N 43.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.10.2019 132 33.5N 43.1W 1011 39
1200UTC 08.10.2019 144 34.9N 44.3W 1001 45


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021557

>

2019-10-02 15:58

WTNT80 EGRR 021557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 124.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.10.2019 14.0N 124.0W WEAK
00UTC 03.10.2019 14.2N 124.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2019 13.7N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 13.9N 125.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2019 14.6N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2019 15.3N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2019 16.5N 126.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2019 17.5N 127.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.10.2019 18.3N 129.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2019 19.0N 131.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2019 19.3N 133.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2019 19.4N 136.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2019 19.1N 138.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 42.6N 28.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.10.2019 42.6N 28.2W STRONG
00UTC 03.10.2019 48.9N 19.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2019 53.5N 13.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 54.2N 9.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2019 51.5N 3.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 13.9N 132.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.10.2019 13.9N 132.5W WEAK
00UTC 04.10.2019 13.1N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2019 12.5N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2019 12.7N 132.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2019 12.8N 131.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2019 13.2N 131.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2019 13.6N 131.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2019 14.0N 131.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2019 14.8N 131.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2019 15.8N 132.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.10.2019 16.9N 134.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 33.5N 43.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.10.2019 33.5N 43.1W WEAK
12UTC 08.10.2019 34.9N 44.3W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021557

>

2019-10-02 14:39

WTNT43 KNHC 021436
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Discussion Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

Lorenzo has completed its transition into a powerful extratropical
cyclone and this will be the last NHC advisory on this system. The
center has become exposed on the southwestern edge of the cloud
shield, and recent ASCAT data indicate that the system has acquired
frontal features. The initial intensity is set at 70 kt, which is
a little above the scatterometer data since there is typically a
low bias in that instrument at these wind speeds. The global
models suggest that the post-tropical cyclone will only gradually
weaken during the next 24 to 36 hours as it approaches Ireland. A
faster rate of weakening is expected Thursday night and Friday when
the cyclone moves southeastward over Ireland and the United Kingdom.
The low should dissipate over southeastern England by late Friday.

The cyclone continues to move rapidly northeastward or 040/37 kt,
and this general motion should continue into Thursday. After that
time, the cyclone is expected to turn eastward and then
southeastward within an area of weaker westerly flow. The global
model guidance is in good agreement, and the NHC track forecast is
in closest to the ECMWF model.

Future hazard information on Lorenzo for Ireland and the United
Kingdom can be found in products issued by Met Eireann and the
United Kingdom Met Office.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the
website of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over
the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas
Forecasts from the following agencies:

The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-
sea/high-seas-forecast

Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 44.4N 25.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 03/0000Z 48.6N 20.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 03/1200Z 52.8N 14.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 04/0000Z 54.0N 9.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/1200Z 52.5N 3.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-10-02 14:38

WTNT33 KNHC 021435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Lorenzo Advisory Number 41
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

...LORENZO BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL BUT STILL EXPECTED TO BRING WINDS
AND RAINFALL TO IRELAND AND PORTIONS OF THE UNITED KINGDOM...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.4N 25.8W
ABOUT 945 MI...1525 KM WSW OF CORK IRELAND
ABOUT 970 MI...1565 KM WSW OF GALWAY IRELAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has
discontinued all warnings for the Azores.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.

Interests in Ireland should monitor products issued by Met Eireann,
and interests in the United Kingdom should monitor products issued
by the UK Met Office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Lorenzo was located near latitude 44.4 North, longitude 25.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 43 mph
(69 km/h). A continued fast motion toward the northeast is expected
through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and
turn eastward and then southeastward Thursday night and Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of post-tropical Lorenzo will move
near western Ireland on Thursday, then pass over Ireland and England
on Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next day or so,
and the system is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when
it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening. A faster rate
of weakening is expected when the cyclone moves over Ireland and
England.

Lorenzo is a very large cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from the center and tropical-storm-
force winds extend outward up to 390 miles (630 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
For hazard information for Lorenzo in Ireland and the United Kingdom
see products issued by Met Eireann and the United Kingdom Met
Office.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the UK Met Office under WMO
header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/specialist-forecasts/coast-and-
sea/high-seas-forecast.

Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website
of Met Eireann, the Irish Meteorological Service, at
http://www.met.ie/.

Local forecasts and warnings for the United Kingdom can be found on
the website of the UK Met Office at http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-10-02 14:38

WTNT23 KNHC 021435
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR THE SEA AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS
DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE AZORES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN IRELAND SHOULD MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY MET
EIREANN...AND INTERESTS IN THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 25.8W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 37 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW.
50 KT.......200NE 240SE 220SW 150NW.
34 KT.......300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 720SE 840SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 44.4N 25.8W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.0N 28.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.6N 20.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 60NW.
50 KT...180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 52.8N 14.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT...100NE 100SE 120SW 60NW.
50 KT...160NE 160SE 180SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 54.0N 9.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 52.5N 3.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 140SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 44.4N 25.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO
HEADER FQNT21 EGRR.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-10-02 12:01

WTNT33 KNHC 021158
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 40A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
800 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

...LORENZO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.0N 28.0W
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM NNE OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

These warnings will likely be discontinued later today.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 43.0 North, longitude 28.0 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 43 mph (69 km/h). A continued fast
motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday morning.
The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will continue
moving away from the Azores today, and move near Ireland Thursday
evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it
approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390
miles (630 km). As Lorenzo passed near the western Azores earlier
this morning, a sustained wind of 74 mph (119 km/h) with a gust to
101 mph (163 km/h) was reported on Corvo Island. A wind gust of 90
mph (145 km/h) was observed on Faial Island, and a gust to 88 mph
(142 km/h) was reported on Flores Island.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Winds will continue to decrease across the Azores this
morning.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of less than 1 inch (25 mm) through this morning.
Isolated storm total amounts of 2 inches (50 mm) are possible in the
western Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-10-02 08:38

WTNT43 KNHC 020835
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

Lorenzo passed near Flores in the Azores a few hours ago where
hurricane-force winds, at least in gusts, were observed. Winds
are now decreasing across those islands. The current intensity
estimate, 75 kt, assumes only slow weakening since late yesterday.
The cloud pattern is becoming increasingly asymmetric in
appearance, suggestive that transition to an extratropical cyclone
is well underway. The global models indicate that Lorenzo will soon
become embedded in a frontal zone, and simulated satellite imagery
from the ECMWF and GFS models show an extratropical-looking cloud
pattern later today. The official forecast calls for a gradual
weakening trend over the next couple of days and is above the
intensity guidance. Although the system is forecast to become
extratropical in 12 hours, it is still likely be a fairly vigorous
cyclone when it reaches Ireland late Thursday. After crossing
England, the low is likely to dissipate over continental Europe.

Lorenzo accelerated significantly late Tuesday, and the motion is
rapidly northeastward, or 040/37 kt. Over the next day or so,
the system should continue to move northeastward ahead of a large
mid-tropospheric trough over the north Atlantic. Then, the cyclone
is forecast to turn eastward and a little south of eastward in the
weaker westerly flow ahead of the trough. The official track
forecast is close to the model consensus, but leans a bit toward
the ECMWF forecast.

Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over
the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas
Forecasts from the following agencies:

The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/

Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2

Key Messages:

1. Winds across the Azores will continue to decrease, and watches
and warnings for those islands will likely be discontinued later
today.

2. Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when
it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon or evening.

2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells
will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 42.3N 29.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 46.4N 24.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 03/0600Z 51.6N 16.9W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 03/1800Z 54.3N 11.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/0600Z 53.5N 6.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0600Z 51.5N 3.5E 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-10-02 08:37

WTNT23 KNHC 020833
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0900 UTC WED OCT 02 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 29.4W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 37 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW.
50 KT.......200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW.
34 KT.......300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 660SE 780SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.3N 29.4W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.9N 31.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 46.4N 24.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW.
50 KT...200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW.
34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 51.6N 16.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW.
50 KT...200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW.
34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 54.3N 11.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 53.5N 6.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...150NE 200SE 150SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 51.5N 3.5E...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.3N 29.4W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-10-02 08:36

WTNT33 KNHC 020834
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 40
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

...LORENZO MOVING RAPIDLY AWAY FROM THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.3N 29.4W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NNE OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 43 MPH...69 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next couple of hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 42.3 North, longitude 29.4 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 43 mph (69 km/h). A continued
fast motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday
morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by
Thursday night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will
continue moving away from the Azores today, and move near Ireland
Thursday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it
approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390
miles (630 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Winds will continue to decrease across the Azores this
morning.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce additional rain
accumulations of less than 1 inch (25 mm) through this morning.
Isolated storm total amounts of 2 inches (50 mm) are possible in the
western Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-10-02 06:39

WTNT33 KNHC 020636 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 39A...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
200 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

Corrected distance from Flores

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS HITTING THE WESTERN AZORES...
...TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 31.3W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM N OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next couple of hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should have already been
completed. Seek shelter immediately.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 31.3 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h). A continued fast
motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday morning.
The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will be moving
away from the Azores today, and move near Ireland Thursday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when it
approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390
miles (630 km). A sustained wind of 60 mph (95 km/h) with a gust to
85 mph (140 km/h) was recently reported at the Santa Cruz Airport at
Flores in the western Azores. A sustained wind of 50 mph (75 km/h)
with a gust to 70 mph (110 km/h) was reported at Horta in the
central Azores.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continued within the
hurricane warning area for the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-10-02 05:50

WTNT33 KNHC 020548
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
200 AM AST Wed Oct 02 2019

...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS HITTING THE WESTERN AZORES...
...TROPICAL-STORM CONDITIONS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 31.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next couple of hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should have already been
completed. Seek shelter immediately.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 31.3 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65 km/h). A continued fast
motion toward the northeast is expected through Thursday morning.
The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will be moving
away from the Azores today, and move near Ireland Thursday evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Lorenzo is expected to be a strong extratropical cyclone when
it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390
miles (630 km). A sustained wind of 60 mph (95 km/h) with a gust
to 85 mph (140 km/h) was recently reported at the Santa Cruz Airport
at Flores in the western Azores. A sustained wind of 50 mph
(75 km/h) with a gust to 70 mph (110 km/h) was reported at Horta in
the central Azores.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to continued within the
hurricane warning area for the next several hours.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores through Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-10-02 03:57

WTNT82 EGRR 020356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 123.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2019 0 15.1N 123.4W 1007 23
1200UTC 02.10.2019 12 14.6N 124.0W 1006 25
0000UTC 03.10.2019 24 14.6N 124.9W 1004 30
1200UTC 03.10.2019 36 13.9N 125.6W 1004 27
0000UTC 04.10.2019 48 14.7N 126.0W 1004 26
1200UTC 04.10.2019 60 15.0N 126.3W 1005 26
0000UTC 05.10.2019 72 16.0N 126.8W 1006 25
1200UTC 05.10.2019 84 17.2N 127.6W 1006 31
0000UTC 06.10.2019 96 17.8N 128.9W 1006 28
1200UTC 06.10.2019 108 18.6N 130.2W 1006 29
0000UTC 07.10.2019 120 19.1N 131.8W 1007 28
1200UTC 07.10.2019 132 19.9N 133.4W 1009 28
0000UTC 08.10.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 37.8N 34.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2019 0 37.8N 34.3W 957 62
1200UTC 02.10.2019 12 42.5N 28.1W 962 56
0000UTC 03.10.2019 24 48.8N 20.3W 969 50
1200UTC 03.10.2019 36 53.0N 12.9W 972 48
0000UTC 04.10.2019 48 53.6N 9.1W 979 47
1200UTC 04.10.2019 60 50.9N 3.4W 998 36
0000UTC 05.10.2019 72 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020356

>

2019-10-02 03:57

WTNT80 EGRR 020356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.10.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 123.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2019 15.1N 123.4W WEAK
12UTC 02.10.2019 14.6N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 14.6N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2019 13.9N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 14.7N 126.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2019 15.0N 126.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.10.2019 16.0N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.10.2019 17.2N 127.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.10.2019 17.8N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.10.2019 18.6N 130.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.10.2019 19.1N 131.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.10.2019 19.9N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 37.8N 34.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2019 37.8N 34.3W INTENSE
12UTC 02.10.2019 42.5N 28.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2019 48.8N 20.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2019 53.0N 12.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 53.6N 9.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2019 50.9N 3.4W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020356

>

2019-10-02 02:51

WTNT43 KNHC 020249
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

Lorenzo's convective cloud pattern has eroded significantly during
the past 6 hours, with an eye no longer evident in infrared
satellite imagery. However, a ragged remnant eye feature is still
present in passive microwave imagery, and that data indicates that
the mid- and upper-level circulations are tilted about 15-20 nmi
northeast of the low-level center due to strong southwesterly
vertical wind shear of 25-30 kt. Satellite intensity estimates have
also decreased and now support around 75 kt. However, the intensity
is being maintained at 85 kt due to Lorenzo's faster forward speed,
which is now about 10 kt more than it was on the previous advisory,
offsetting the possible decrease in the tangential winds. The 64-,
50-, and 34-kt wind radii had to once again be expanded in nearly
every quadrant, but especially to the southeast, based on a 2305 UTC
ASCAT-B overpass. The larger wind field is now expected to result in
sustained hurricane-force winds occurring across portions of the
western and central Azores on Wednesday morning.

Despite the hurricane's extremely large size, Lorenzo has continued
to accelerate northeastward and is now moving 045/35 kt. Lorenzo's
forward speed should gradually level off near 40 kt on Wednesday,
and then gradually begin to decrease by Thursday morning when the
cyclone turns more eastward toward Ireland. By late Thursday,
post-tropical Lorenzo is forecast to turn east-southeastward,
crossing Ireland and southern England. The latest NHC model guidance
is tightly packed about the previous forecast track, so only minor
tweaks were required, and new advisory lies close to an average of
the various consensus model forecast tracks.

Lorenzo is currently moving over sea-surface temperatures (SST) near
24 deg C, and that isn't taking into account any cold upwelling that
is likely occurring beneath the very large hurricane. With only
colder water ahead of the cyclone, coupled with vertical shear
increasing to more than 40 kt by 12 hours, rapid transition to a
powerful post-tropical/extratropical cyclone is expected shortly
after Lorenzo passes the Azores. However, only gradual weakening is
foreast during the next 24 hours due to baroclinic interaction with
an upper-level trough and frontal system. After that time, a more
rapid rate of weakening is expected when Lorenzo will be moving over
Ireland and England.

Lorenzo's expansive circulation is producing very large seas over
the north Atlantic. Full information can be found in High Seas
Forecasts from the following agencies:

The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/

Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane- and tropical-storm-force
winds to the Azores beginning within the next couple of hours, with
those dangerous conditions continuing into Wednesday afternoon.
Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for the Azores.

2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells
will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 39.1N 32.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 42.7N 28.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 03/0000Z 48.4N 21.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 03/1200Z 52.8N 15.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 04/0000Z 54.1N 10.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 05/0000Z 52.3N .5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-10-02 02:50

WTNT33 KNHC 020248
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS NOW LASHING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AZORES...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SHORTLY AS LORENZO
GROWS LARGER AND ACCELERATES TOWARD THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 32.7W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM WSW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 40 MPH...65 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area within the next couple of hours.
Preparations to protect life and property should have already been
completed. Seek shelter immediately.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 32.7 West. Lorenzo is
accelerating and is now moving toward the northeast near 40 mph (65
km/h). A northeastward motion at an even faster forward speed is
expected through Thursday morning. The cyclone is forecast to slow
down and turn eastward by Thursday night. On the forecast track,
the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores
early Wednesday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Lorenzo is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone when
it approaches Ireland Thursday afternoon and evening.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 390
miles (630 km). During the past hour, a 10-minute average wind of
45 mph (72 km/h) and a gust to 64 mph (104 km/h) was reported at the
Santa Cruz Airport on Flores island in the western Azores. A
10-minute average wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) and a gust to 48 mph (78
km/h) was reported at Horta on Faial island in the central Azores.

The minimum central pressure is estimated to be 960 mb (28.35
inches) based on data from a nearby NOAA drifting buoy, which
reported a pressure of 961.5 mb around 0200 UTC.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area early Wednesday morning. Tropical storm conditions
are already occuring across the western and central Azores.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-10-02 02:49

WTNT23 KNHC 020247
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 39
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0300 UTC WED OCT 02 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 32.7W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT.......100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW.
50 KT.......200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW.
34 KT.......300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 600SE 660SW 680NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 32.7W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.8N 34.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.7N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW.
50 KT...200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW.
34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.4N 21.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT...100NE 130SE 120SW 80NW.
50 KT...200NE 240SE 230SW 150NW.
34 KT...300NE 340SE 300SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 52.8N 15.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 60NW.
50 KT...160NE 200SE 200SW 120NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 54.1N 10.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 160SE 160SW 60NW.
34 KT...250NE 300SE 330SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 52.3N .5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 150SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 32.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-10-01 23:53

WTNT33 KNHC 012350
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 38A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
800 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN
AZORES AS LORENZO BARRELS FASTER TOWARD THE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.8N 34.3W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 32 MPH...52 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 37.8 North, longitude 34.3 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 32 mph (52 km/h). A northeastward
motion at an even faster forward speed is expected through Thursday.
The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to
pass near the western Azores late tonight or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). During the past hour,
a wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h) was reported at the Santa Cruz
Airport on Flores island in the western Azores.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to
1 inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-10-01 20:37

WTNT43 KNHC 012034
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

The eye of Lorenzo, while still evident in both visible and infrared
satellite imagery, has become smaller and slightly less distinct
this afternoon, but the overall structure of the hurricane has not
changed much since the previous advisory. Objective Dvorak
T-numbers crept up this morning when the eye cleared for a couple
of hours and are somewhat higher than the latest subjective
estimates from TAFB and SAB. A blend of these estimates remains
around 85 kt, and this is the value used as the initial wind speed
for this advisory. Lorenzo is heading toward colder waters and an
area of increasing vertical wind shear. However, since the wind
field of the hurricane is quite large, only gradually weakening is
foreast during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, Lorenzo
is forecast to merge with a front and become a strong extratropical
low over the northeastern Atlantic. The global models indicate
that the post-tropical low will weaken more quickly when it moves
near Ireland and Great Britain in 2 to 3 days.

Lorenzo continues to accelerate northeastward, with an initial
motion estimate of 040/25 kt. The forward speed of the hurricane
is predicted to increase further overnight and on Wednesday as it
is steered northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough over the
central Atlantic. By late Thursday, the post-tropical cyclone
should slow down and turn eastward or east-southeastward within the
low-level westerly flow. The track has continued to bend to the
right beyond 48 hours, and the official forecast has once again
been adjusted southward and eastward at that time period. The new
NHC track forecast is in good agreement with the latest ECMWF model.

Lorenzo is producing very large seas over the north Atlantic. Full
information can be found in High Seas Forecasts from the following
agencies:

The NOAA Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO
header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

The UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and online at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/

Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and online at
http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/
grandlarge/metarea2

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect for the Azores.

2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, and portions of the coast of Europe. These swells
will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 37.0N 35.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 40.2N 31.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 45.6N 24.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 51.2N 18.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 03/1800Z 54.4N 13.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1800Z 53.2N 3.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-10-01 20:36

WTNT33 KNHC 012033
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

...CONDITIONS IN THE WESTERN AZORES WILL BEGIN TO DETERIORATE
SOON AS LORENZO MOVES CLOSER...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.0N 35.5W
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SW OF FLORES ISLAND IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 37.0 North, longitude 35.5 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h). A northeastward
motion at an even faster forward speed is expected through Thursday.
The cyclone is forecast to slow down and turn eastward by Thursday
night. On the forecast track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to
pass near the western Azores late tonight or early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km). During the past hour,
a wind gust to 38 mph (61 km/h) was reported at the Santa Cruz
Airport on Flores island in the western Azores.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-10-01 20:36

WTNT23 KNHC 012033
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 35.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT.......150NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT.......270NE 300SE 240SW 270NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 540SE 540SW 720NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.0N 35.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 36.8W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 40.2N 31.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 45.6N 24.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 90NE 110SE 100SW 60NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 150SW 110NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 51.2N 18.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT...100NE 120SE 110SW 60NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 180SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 54.4N 13.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 160SE 160SW 60NW.
34 KT...250NE 300SE 330SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 53.2N 3.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 150SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.0N 35.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-10-01 17:51

WTNT33 KNHC 011749
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 37A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
200 PM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

...EYE OF VERY LARGE LORENZO MOVING CLOSER TO THE WESTERN AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
EARLY TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.0N 36.8W
ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 36.0 North, longitude 36.8 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). The hurricane
should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward
speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, the Azores, and portions of the coast of Europe.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-10-01 14:56

WTNT43 KNHC 011454
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

Lorenzo remains a well organized hurricane this morning as it heads
toward the Azores. The eye has made a reappearance in infrared
satellite imagery, and the cloud tops associated with the
surrounding ring of convection have cooled. The advisory intensity
remains 85 kt, which is the consensus of the latest objective
and subjective satellite intensity estimates that range from 77 to
90 kt. Lorenzo is expected to maintain its intensity today, but it
will be moving over progressively colder waters and into an area of
increasing shear, which should cause gradual weakening by
Wednesday. The global models show the hurricane merging with a
frontal zone, and becoming extratropical in about 36 hours. The
extratropical low should weaken in a couple of days while it moves
near Ireland and Great Britain, and then it is forecast to dissipate
over Europe by 96 hours.

Lorenzo is moving northeastward at 22 kt. The hurricane should
continue to accelerate northeastward ahead of a mid-latitude trough
over the central Atlantic during the next day or two. After that
time, the cyclone is predicted to decelerate and turn
east-northeastward or eastward within the low-level westerly flow.
The global model guidance is in excellent agreement through the
first 36-48 hours, and has also come into somewhat better agreement
on the eastward turn later in the period. The updated NHC track has
been adjusted southeastward at 72 hours, but still lies north of the
multi-model consensus. An additional southward and eastward
adjustment of the post-tropical cyclone's track near Ireland
and the United Kingdom may be necessary in future advisories.

Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic. Full
information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean
Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued
by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/


Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect for the Azores.

2. Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe. These swells
will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 35.2N 37.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 38.0N 34.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 42.8N 28.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 48.5N 21.4W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 03/1200Z 53.5N 16.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/1200Z 56.0N 7.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-10-01 14:55

WTNT33 KNHC 011453
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

...LORENZO MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE AZORES
EARLY TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 37.9W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 37.9 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h). The hurricane
should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward
speed during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores
early Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345
miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo have spread across much of the
North Atlantic basin, and are affecting the east coast of the United
States, Atlantic Canada, the Bahamas, portions of the Greater and
Lesser Antilles, and portions the coast of Europe. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-10-01 14:55

WTNT23 KNHC 011453
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1500 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 37.9W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT.......170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT.......270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 480SE 480SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 37.9W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.3N 39.0W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.0N 34.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.8N 28.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 110NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.5N 21.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.
50 KT...160NE 180SE 140SW 90NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 53.5N 16.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 30NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 150SW 80NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 300SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 56.0N 7.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 200SE 220SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 37.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-10-01 11:43

WTNT33 KNHC 011141
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 36A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
800 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

...LARGE WIND FIELD OF LORENZO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE AZORES...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.3N 39.0W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 34.3 North, longitude 39.0 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). The hurricane
should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward
speed during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the
Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-10-01 08:43

WTNT43 KNHC 010841
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

Lorenzo's eye has become less distinct on satellite images over the
past several hours, but the system remains very well organized with
tightly curved convective bands. The upper-level outflow remains
quite well-defined. The advisory intensity, 85 kt, is a blend of
subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB along with ADT values
from UW-CIMSS. Sea-surface temperatures beneath the cyclone are
likely to fall below 20 deg C within 36 hours, along with a large
increase in vertical shear. Since Lorenzo has such a large
circulation, it will probably be slow to weaken, however. In 48
hours or less, the global models show the system merging with a
frontal zone, indicating the transition to an extratropical
cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast is on the high side of the
numerical guidance but still weakens the cyclone below hurricane
strength when it nears Ireland and Great Britain. By 96 hours, the
cyclone should dissipate over Europe.

The hurricane continues to accelerate, and is now moving
northeastward near 19 kt. Continued acceleration on the southeast
and east side of a large mid-tropospheric trough over the central
north Atlantic should occur over the next day or two. In 72 hours
or so, the cyclone is expected to turn east-northeastward while
moving in the westerly flow ahead of the north Atlantic trough.
There is still significant track model divergence around this time,
and the official 3-day forecast is somewhat southeast of the model
consensus. This leans toward the latest ECMWF solution, which
continues to be on the southeast side of the track guidance
envelope.

Lorenzo is producing huge seas over the north Atlantic. Full
information on the High Seas Forecasts can be found at the Ocean
Prediction Center under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued
by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/


Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning tonight, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect for the Azores.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents,
especially across the Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 33.4N 39.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 35.9N 36.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 40.2N 31.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 45.5N 24.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 51.0N 18.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/0600Z 56.5N 8.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-10-01 08:42

WTNT33 KNHC 010840
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 36
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

...LORENZO HAS WINDS NEAR 100 MPH...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF
THE AZORES EARLY TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 39.7W
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 39.7 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). The hurricane
should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward
speed during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slow weakening is expected during the next 48 hours.

Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 2 inches (25 to 50 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the
Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-10-01 08:42

WTNT23 KNHC 010840
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0900 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 39.7W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
50 KT.......170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT.......270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 480SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.4N 39.7W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 40.5W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 35.9N 36.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
50 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 40.2N 31.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 110NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 45.5N 24.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.
50 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 90NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 51.0N 18.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 30NW.
50 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 56.5N 8.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 30NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 240SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.4N 39.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-10-01 05:52

WTNT33 KNHC 010550
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 35A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
200 AM AST Tue Oct 01 2019

...LORENZO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HURRICANE CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF THE
AZORES EARLY WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.8N 40.5W
ABOUT 690 MI...1110 KM SW OF FLORES IN THE WESTERN AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 32.8 North, longitude 40.5 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). The hurricane
should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward
speed during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slight weakening is anticipated before Lorenzo moves
near the Azores, with faster weakening expected on Thursday.

Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores today and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the
Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-10-01 02:47

WTNT43 KNHC 010245
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

Lorenzo has not changed appreciably during the past several hours
on satellite imagery, with an eye still present along with a large
cloud shield in the northeastern quadrant. Dvorak estimates remain
near 90 kt so that will be the initial wind speed. The initial
wind field has also grown according to the latest scatterometer
data, and that is reflected in the wind radii analyses.

The hurricane is now moving faster and has turned northeastward at
about 17 kt. Lorenzo should continue to accelerate to the northeast
during the next couple of days ahead of a large mid- latitude
trough, and the model guidance remains in tight agreement taking the
hurricane near the western Azores. The longer-range future of
Lorenzo is a little clearer tonight as the global models are in much
better agreement on the cyclone turning east- northeastward close to
Ireland and then eastward across Great Britain, dissipating over
western Europe by 96 h. The new forecast is shifted southward, and
is close to a blend of the latest UKMET/ECMWF and GFS solutions.

Lorenzo is forecast to slowly weaken tomorrow due to the cyclone
moving over progressively cooler waters. Extratropical transition
should occur by 48 hours, and there is unanimous global model
agreement on Lorenzo keeping much of its strength through that time.
Weakening is then anticipated while the low approaches Ireland and
the U.K., although the wind speed forecast at 72 hours is
deceptively low since the radius of maximum winds is possibly
already onshore.

It is also worth mentioning that there will be some enormous seas on
the eastern side of Lorenzo. The hurricane will be accelerating to
the northeast in the same general direction for a couple of days.
Combined with the large size and intensity, this is a recipe for an
amplified wave field on the eastern side due to a phenomenon called
trapped-wave fetch. Full information on the High Seas Forecasts can
be found at the Ocean Prediction Center under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php.
The UK Met Office also has information in High Seas Forecasts issued
by under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at
http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/


Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are in effect for the Azores.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents,
especially across the Azores.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0300Z 32.0N 41.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 34.1N 39.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 02/0000Z 37.8N 34.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/1200Z 42.9N 27.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 03/0000Z 49.0N 21.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 04/0000Z 55.0N 10.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-10-01 02:45

WTNT33 KNHC 010242
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...LORENZO MOVING FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND GROWING IN SIZE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 41.2W
ABOUT 840 MI...1350 KM WSW OF FAIAL ISLAND IN THE CENTRAL AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 41.2 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). The hurricane
should move in the same general direction but at a faster forward
speed during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Only slight weakening is anticipated before Lorenzo moves
near the Azores, with faster weakening expected on Thursday.

Lorenzo is a very large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds
extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 345 miles (555 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb (28.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the
Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-10-01 02:44

WTNT23 KNHC 010241
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0300 UTC TUE OCT 01 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 41.2W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 956 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.
50 KT.......170NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT.......270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 420SE 480SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 41.2W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 41.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.1N 39.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 90SE 90SW 80NW.
50 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 130NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.8N 34.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 160SE 140SW 110NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 240SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.9N 27.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 50NW.
50 KT...150NE 160SE 130SW 90NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 270SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 49.0N 21.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 80SE 80SW 30NW.
50 KT...140NE 160SE 160SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 330SE 330SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 55.0N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 80SE 80SW 30NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 240SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 41.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-30 23:57

WTNT33 KNHC 302354
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 34A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
800 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...LORENZO REMAINS ON COURSE TOWARDS THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 41.8W
ABOUT 965 MI...1555 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorenzo was located
near latitude 31.2 North, longitude 41.8 West. Lorenzo is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is expected later tonight, with an increasing forward
speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight. A
weakening trend is expected to resume on Tuesday.

Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds
extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 310 miles (500
km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions, especially across the
Azores. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-30 20:34

WTNT43 KNHC 302032
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

The wind field of Lorenzo continues to expand, with a trio of
scatterometer overpasses showing that tropical-storm-force winds now
extend up to 270 n mi from the center, while hurricane-force winds
can be found up to 90 n mi from the center. A cloud-covered eye has
been apparent throughout the day and cloud-top temperatures
surrounding the eye have remained fairly consistent. The most recent
Dvorak CI values from TAFB and SAB suggest Lorenzo is maintaining
its strength at 90 kt, which will remain the initial intensity for
this advisory. A drifting NOAA buoy near the eyewall of Lorenzo
recently reported a pressure of 964.8 mb, supporting the minimum
central pressure of 957 mb.

Lorenzo continues moving north-northeastward at 13 kt, around the
northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge to its southeast. Over
the next couple of days Lorenzo will be accelerated northeastward by
increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough
amplifying across the central Atlantic. This motion should take the
core of Lorenzo near the western Azores late Tuesday and early
Wednesday. The forecast track confidence remains high through 72
hours. After that time, global models have come into a little better
agreement on the future track of Lorenzo, with a turn to the right
toward Ireland or the U.K. as a weakening extratropical low. The
official forecast track is just a little to the right of the
previous one and lies near the consensus aids.

The environment surrounding Lorenzo is not expected to change much
through tonight, and therefore the intensity should remain fairly
steady. On Tuesday, the hurricane should begin gradually weakening
as drier air entrains into the circulation and the system moves over
progressively cooler waters. By 48 hours, the interaction with the
approaching trough, an associated cold front, and very strong
southwesterly shear will help transition Lorenzo into an
extratropical low. This transition is expected to be complete by 72
hours. The low is then expected to weaken and dissipate shortly
after 96 hours. The official forecast was increased through
the first 48 hours to reflect a more steady intensity in the near
term, and then is blended close to the previous forecast after that
time.

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are now in effect for the Azores.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/2100Z 30.9N 42.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 01/0600Z 32.8N 40.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 01/1800Z 36.1N 36.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 02/0600Z 40.3N 31.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 02/1800Z 45.9N 25.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 03/1800Z 55.2N 14.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1800Z 56.3N 10.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-30 20:33

WTNT33 KNHC 302031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...VERY LARGE LORENZO HEADING TOWARDS THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 42.1W
ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorenzo was located
near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 42.1 West. Lorenzo is moving
toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to the
northeast is expected later tonight, with an increasing forward
speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight. A
weakening trend is expected to resume on Tuesday.

Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds
extending outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 310 miles (500
km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 1 to 3 inches (25 to 75 mm) over the western Azores and up to 1
inch (25 mm) over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-30 20:32

WTNT23 KNHC 302030
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
2100 UTC MON SEP 30 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 42.1W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT.......130NE 120SE 130SW 130NW.
34 KT.......220NE 270SE 200SW 210NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 360SE 390SW 510NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 42.1W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 42.6W

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.8N 40.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 130SW 130NW.
34 KT...220NE 270SE 200SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.1N 36.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 130SW 130NW.
34 KT...250NE 270SE 200SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 40.3N 31.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 290SE 230SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 45.9N 25.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 120NW.
34 KT...270NE 290SE 230SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 55.2N 14.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 300SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 56.3N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 42.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 01/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-30 17:41

WTNT33 KNHC 301739
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 33A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
200 PM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...LORENZO CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AZORES...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THOSE
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 42.4W
ABOUT 1025 MI...1650 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 42.4 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected later today, with an increasing forward
speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through Wednesday. Lorenzo is
expected to transition to an extratropical low by Thursday.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 255 miles (405
km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-30 15:04

WTNT43 KNHC 301502
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

Lorenzo continues to maintain its strength. A cloud filled eye is
evident in infrared satellite imagery, while convection is
attempting to wrap around a break in the southern portion of the
hurricane. This is indicating that for the time being, the cyclone
is fighting off some of the dry air entraining into it from the
southwest. The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from TAFB and
SAB remain at 90 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this
advisory.

Lorenzo continues north-northeastward, now at 13 kt, around the
northwestern periphery of a subtropical ridge. Over the next couple
of days Lorenzo will be accelerated northeastward by increasing
southwesterly flow ahead of a mid-latitude trough amplifying across
the central Atlantic. This motion should take the core of Lorenzo
near or just west of the western Azores late Tuesday and early
Wednesday. The forecast track confidence is high through 72 hours,
but decreases significantly thereafter, as forecast models continue
to differ on their handling of the steering flow. By that time, the
steering flow may break down as the trough to the west of Lorenzo
de-amplifies, while an extratropical low quickly approaches from the
west. Some of the forecast models turn Lorenzo north ahead of the
approaching low as they begin to interact, other solutions turn
Lorenzo or its remnants to the east in the westerlies, with
limited interaction with this low. The official forecast track is
very close to the previous one and to the consensus aids, which lies
in between these two scenarios.

Lorenzo should gradually weaken over the next couple of days while
drier air continues to get pulled into the circulation and the
system moves over progressively cooler waters. After 48 hours, the
interaction with the approaching trough, an associated cold front,
and very strong southwesterly shear will help transition Lorenzo
into an extratropical low. This transition is expected to be
complete by 72 hours. The low is then expected to either dissipate
or become absorbed by another extratropical low by day 5. The
official forecast intensity is very similar to the previous one,
and is in good agreement with the consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is expected to bring hurricane and tropical storm force
winds to the Azores beginning Tuesday night, and these conditions
will continue into Wednesday. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings
are now in effect for the Azores.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/1500Z 30.0N 42.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 31.7N 41.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 01/1200Z 34.5N 38.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 02/0000Z 38.1N 34.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 02/1200Z 43.3N 28.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 03/1200Z 53.5N 17.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/1200Z 58.2N 11.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-30 14:58

WTNT33 KNHC 301456
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 33
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...LORENZO MAINTAINS IT STRENGTH...
...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.0N 42.6W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1685 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has issued a
Hurricane Warning for the central and western Azores, including the
islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and
Terceira. The Institute has also issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the eastern Azores, including the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa
Maria.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 30.0 North, longitude 42.6 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected later today, with an increasing forward
speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through Wednesday. Lorenzo is
expected to transition to an extratropical low by Thursday.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 255 miles
(405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 962 mb (28.41 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning
area early Wednesday morning, with tropical storm conditions
beginning Tuesday night. Tropical storm conditions are expected in
the tropical storm warning area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-30 14:58

WTNT23 KNHC 301455
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1500 UTC MON SEP 30 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR THE SEA AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...
AND TERCEIRA. THE INSTITUTE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE EASTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF SAO MIGUEL AND
SANTA MARIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 42.6W AT 30/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 962 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT.......210NE 220SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 390SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.0N 42.6W AT 30/1500Z
AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 42.9W

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.7N 41.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 34.5N 38.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...250NE 270SE 200SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 38.1N 34.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 85SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 290SE 230SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 43.3N 28.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 85SE 60SW 40NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 110NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 270SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 53.5N 17.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...290NE 290SE 320SW 270NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 58.2N 11.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.0N 42.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-30 11:56

WTNT33 KNHC 301154
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 32A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
800 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...EXPANSIVE WIND FIELD OF LORENZO CONTINUES NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...LARGE SWELLS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 42.9W
ABOUT 1045 MI...1680 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...23 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas
later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 29.4 North, longitude 42.9 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 14 mph (20 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected later today with a gradual increase in
forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while
it passes near the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
late Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-30 08:40

WTNT43 KNHC 300838
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

The satellite presentation of Lorenzo has generally changed little
during the last several hours. The hurricane continues to maintain
a well-defined inner core with a ragged cloud-filled eye. The
outer bands are well established to the north and east of the
center, but are restricted on the south side of the circulation due
to some southwesterly shear and drier air being wrapped into that
portion of the cyclone. The initial intensity estimate is set at 90
kt based on T5.0/90 kt Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

Lorenzo is moving north-northeastward at 11 kt through a break in
the Atlantic subtropical ridge. The models generally agree that
Lorenzo should pick up forward speed and move northeastward
during the next day or two as a trough amplifies over the central
Atlantic. This flow should take the core of Lorenzo near or to
the west of the western Azores late Tuesday and early Wednesday.
After that time, the spread in the guidance increases with several
of the models including the GFS, HWRF, and HMON showing Lorenzo
turning north-northeastward or northward as it moves around
the east side of a large extratropical low. The new ECMWF run has
shifted closer to the GFS/HWRF/HMON solutions, but it still is
considerably to the east of those models as it shows less
interaction with the extratropical low. The NHC track forecast has
been adjusted a little to the left to come into better agreement
with the latest consensus aids. Although the spread in the models
is not as large as it was yesterday, the forecast beyond 48 hours is
still of low confidence given the uncertainty in the longer-term
steering flow.

The intensity forecast appears to be more straightforward than the
track forecast. The bulk of the guidance shows the hurricane
maintaining its intensity or weakening slightly during the next day
or two while it remains over relatively warm waters and in moderate
wind shear conditions. It seems likely that Lorenzo will
be a significant hurricane when it passes near the Azores in about
2 days. After that time, more notable weakening should occur due to
a significant drop off in SSTs, drier air, and much stronger shear.
In fact, these conditions should ultimately lead to extratropical
transition, which is expected to be complete by 72 hours.
Dissipation is now predicted to occur by day 5 following the global
model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane-
and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next few days. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches
are in effect for the Azores, and Hurricane and Tropical Storm
Warnings could be required later today for those islands.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0900Z 28.7N 43.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 30.3N 42.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 32.7N 40.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 36.0N 36.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 40.5N 31.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 52.0N 20.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0600Z 57.0N 13.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-30 08:38

WTNT33 KNHC 300836
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.7N 43.1W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas
later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 28.7 North, longitude 43.1 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected later today with a gradual increase in
forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while
it passes near the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
late Tuesday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the
tropical storm watch area by early Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches over much of the western Azores and around 1 inch
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-30 08:38

WTNT23 KNHC 300836
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS
LATER THIS MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 43.1W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT.......210NE 220SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 360SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.7N 43.1W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 43.3W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.3N 42.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.7N 40.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...250NE 270SE 200SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 36.0N 36.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 290SE 230SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 40.5N 31.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
50 KT...150NE 170SE 130SW 110NW.
34 KT...300NE 300SE 270SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 52.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...170NE 150SE 140SW 100NW.
34 KT...390NE 360SE 320SW 360NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 57.0N 13.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.7N 43.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-30 05:35

WTNT33 KNHC 300533
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Intermediate Advisory Number 31A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
200 AM AST Mon Sep 30 2019

...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...HURRICANE WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 43.2W
ABOUT 1160 MI...1865 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas
later this morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 28.1 North, longitude 43.2 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected later today with a gradual increase in
forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the Azores early on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while
it passes near the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
late Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-30 02:44

WTNT43 KNHC 300242
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

There haven't been a lot of changes with Lorenzo this evening, with
a small cloud-filled eye remaining visible and an enormous cloud
shield expanding in the northern semicircle. Satellite intensity
estimates support a somewhat lower intensity than the previous
advisory, so the initial wind speed is set to 95 kt. It should be
emphasized that even though the peak winds are down since yesterday,
the area of the hurricane-force winds has more than doubled during
that time.

Earlier aircraft data indicated that the large hurricane is
upwelling a significant amount of cooler waters under the storm, and
this is anticipated to cause Lorenzo to slowly weaken during the
next couple of days. While the SSTs drop off considerably after
late tomorrow, which would normally cause faster weakening, most of
the guidance is showing a favorable trough interaction at that time
with strong upper-level divergence. These effects are expected to
offset, and Lorenzo is likely to be a category 1 or 2 hurricane near
the Azores. Little change was made to the previous forecast, except
to raise the intensity a little higher near the Azores after more
heavily weighting the global models, which have been good performers
for this cyclone. The guidance is in very good agreement on Lorenzo
becoming an extratropical cyclone in about 72 hours, and that is
reflected in the latest forecast.

Lorenzo continues north-northeastward at 9 kt through a break in the
subtropical ridge. The forecast track confidence remains very high
through 48 hours as the hurricane is accelerated toward the
northeast ahead of a mid-latitude trough, and the new forecast is
essentially an update of the previous one. After that time,
however, there is a very large spread in the guidance caused by
whether Lorenzo is captured by the mid-latitude trough or if it
remains separate. There isn't much change in the newest guidance,
although it should be noted that the 12Z ECMWF solution is pretty
far east of its ensemble mean. The forecast track confidence is
extremely low beyond 72 hours, and the new NHC track was nudged
just a little to the left from the previous advisory, slightly east
of the various consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane-
and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Watches
have been issued for the Azores, and these winds could start late
Tuesday or early Wednesday.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 30/0300Z 27.6N 43.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 30/1200Z 28.9N 42.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 01/1200Z 33.9N 38.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 02/0000Z 37.5N 34.2W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 03/0000Z 48.0N 22.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 04/0000Z 53.0N 17.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 05/0000Z 54.0N 17.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-30 02:43

WTNT33 KNHC 300240
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL AZORES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 43.5W
ABOUT 1195 MI...1920 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Portuguese Institute for the Sea and the Atmosphere has issued
a Hurricane Watch for the central and western Azores, including the
islands of Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, and
Terceira. The Institute has also issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the eastern Azores, including the islands of Sao Miguel and Santa
Maria.


SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Flores, Corvo, Faial, Pico, Sao Jorge, Graciosa, Terceira

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Sao Miguel, Santa Maria

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning will likely be issued for some of these areas
on Monday morning.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 43.5 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected on Monday with a gradual increase in
forward speed through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the Azores early on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but
Lorenzo is forecast to remain a large and powerful hurricane while
it passes near the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by early Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions possible by
late Tuesday in the Azores.

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-30 02:40

WTNT23 KNHC 300238
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE PORTUGUESE INSTITUTE FOR THE SEA AND THE ATMOSPHERE HAS ISSUED
A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE
ISLANDS OF FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA AND
TERCEIRA. THE INSTITUTE HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE EASTERN AZORES...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF SAO MIGUEL AND SANTA
MARIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORES...CORVO...FAIAL...PICO...SAO JORGE...GRACIOSA...TERCEIRA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SAO MIGUEL...SANTA MARIA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE AREAS
ON MONDAY MORNING.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 43.5W AT 30/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.
50 KT.......110NE 100SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT.......210NE 220SE 150SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 390SW 450NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 43.5W AT 30/0300Z
AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 43.8W

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.9N 42.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 130SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 260SE 190SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.9N 38.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 90SE 80SW 60NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...260NE 280SE 220SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 37.5N 34.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 110SE 100SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 150SW 110NW.
34 KT...280NE 300SE 260SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 48.0N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...150NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...360NE 330SE 300SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 53.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 54.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 43.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 30/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-29 20:47

WTNT43 KNHC 292045
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

The cloud pattern has continued to degrade throughout the day with
cold cloud tops filling in the eye, with a gradual erosion of the
convection over the southwest quadrant. A recent AMSR2 pass confirms
that the eyewall is indeed open on the western side, and suggests
there may be another eyewall replacement cycle occurring. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters are currently performing multiple experimental
flights inside and around Lorenzo, and are providing NHC with
valuable data. The wind data from the SFMR are indicating that the
hurricane-force winds extend outward farther than previously
thought, about 60-70 n mi from the center in all quadrants. The
aircraft also reported an adjusted minimum central pressure of 948
mb, a peak flight level wind of 99 kt, and an image capture from an
on-board radar that confirmed the break in the eyewall. The
available objective and subjective intensity estimates range from
102 kt to 114 kt. Based on a compromise of these data, the initial
intensity has been set at 100 kt, but this may be a little generous
given much lower dropsonde wind speeds measured by the aircraft.

Lorenzo continues north-northeastward at 9 kt through a weakness in
the subtropical ridge. A mid-latitude trough will approach Lorenzo
from the west in a couple of days. Increasing southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough will force the hurricane to turn northeastward
and accelerate beginning on Monday. The forecast track confidence
remains very high through 48 hours, and the new forecast is
essentially an update of the previous one. By 72 hours, the guidance
continues to diverge significantly, likely due to how they are
handling the interaction between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical
cyclone to its north late in the forecast period. The ECMWF/UKMET do
not have Lorenzo being absorbed into the larger low. Instead, they
track Lorenzo to the east-northeast toward Europe ahead of the
associated upper trough. The rest of the guidance has Lorenzo
absorbed into the low several hundred miles west of the British
Isles. The forecast track confidence remains low beyond 72 hours,
and was nudged just a little to the left from the previous advisory.

The aircraft near-surface dropsonde data suggests that Lorenzo is
moving over cooler waters of 24-25 degrees C, a few degrees cooler
than model guidance indicates, due to the upwelling of the waters
with lower oceanic heat content. The environmental conditions
for the next 48 hours are characterized by moderate southwesterly
shear, decent moisture, and strong upper-level divergence. Due to
the presence of the shear and cooler waters, gradual weakening is
anticipated for the next couple of days. By 72 hours, much stronger
shear and the interaction with the approaching mid-latitude trough
should cause the cyclone to weaken at a faster rate and begin to
transition to an extratropical cyclone. By 96 hours or so,
extratropical transition is expected to be complete. The official
intensity forecast was adjusted lower than the previous one
through 48 hours, and then is similar thereafter. This solution is
near the various multimodel consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane-
and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there
should monitor the progress of the hurricane. Watches could be
issued for those islands later today or tonight.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 26.9N 44.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 28.2N 43.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 30.1N 42.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 32.4N 40.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 35.6N 37.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 44.6N 26.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 52.2N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1800Z 55.0N 15.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-29 20:46

WTNT33 KNHC 292044
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND LORENZO WEAKER BUT STILL A LARGE AND
POWERFUL HURRICANE...
...WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THE AZORES LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 44.2W
ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.
Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 44.2 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to
the northeast is expected on Monday with a gradual increase in
forward speed through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected over the next
couple of days, but Lorenzo is expected to remain a large hurricane
throughout that time.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255
miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
reconnaissance aircraft is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Lorenzo can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml

RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-29 20:45

WTNT23 KNHC 292043
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO.
WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 44.2W AT 29/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......210NE 220SE 140SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 330SE 420SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 44.2W AT 29/2100Z
AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.4N 44.4W

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.2N 43.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.1N 42.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.4N 40.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 35.6N 37.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...260NE 280SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 44.6N 26.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...330NE 330SE 240SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 52.2N 17.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 55.0N 15.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 44.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-29 15:00

WTNT43 KNHC 291456
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

Satellite and microwave imagery are indicating that Lorenzo is now
weakening. A recent microwave pass showed a broken eyewall as well
as dry air in the southwestern quadrant. Over the past hour, the eye
has begun to fill in. However, outflow remains excellent and cloud
tops remain very cold near the center of the hurricane. A blend of
the latest CI values from TAFB and SAB as well as a recent
subjective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS suggest the initial
intensity is now 125 kt.

Lorenzo is moving north-northeastward at 9 kt through a weakness in
the subtropical ridge. A mid-latitude trough will approach Lorenzo
from the west in a couple of days. Increasing southwesterly flow
ahead of the trough will force the hurricane to turn northeastward
and accelerate beginning on Monday. The forecast track confidence is
very high through 72 hours, and the new forecast is in good
agreement with the tightly clustered consensus guidance and the
previous forecast. Beyond 72 hours, the guidance now diverges
significantly, likely due to how they are handling the interaction
between Lorenzo and a larger extratropical cyclone near Greenland
late in the forecast period. The majority of the guidance has
shifted to the west by several hundred miles over the past couple of
runs. However, there remains significant spread between the
operational UKMET/ECMWF which take what's left of Lorenzo toward the
British Isles, and the solutions that absorb the cyclone into the
larger system well over 1000 miles to the west. Based on the recent
shift in the models and the large spread, the official forecast was
only adjusted a little to the left and lies well to the right of the
consensus aids. Needless to say, the forecast track confidence
beyond 72 hours is low at the moment, and may need further
adjustments in the next couple of advisories.

Lorenzo reached its peak intensity last night, and the intensity
guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will steadily
weaken over the next several days due to increasing southwesterly
shear, dry air entrainment, and progressively cooler SSTs. The NOAA
Hurricane Hunters are still scheduled to investigate Lorenzo later
today, and the data they collect should provide a better assessment
of the hurricane's intensity and structure. In a few days, Lorenzo
will interact with a frontal zone and begin transitioning to an
extratropical cyclone. This transition is expected to be complete by
96 hours. It is important to note that although Lorenzo is
forecast to weaken through the forecast period, the wind field is
expected to expand at the same time, with tropical-storm-force and
50 kt winds forecast to extend over 300 n mi/ 160 n mi respectively
from the center in 72 hours. The latest intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one, and it is near the HFIP corrected
consensus HCCA.

Earlier input from the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at
NHC indicates that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected
faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme
enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern
portion of the circulation.

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane-
and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there
should monitor the progress of the hurricane. Watches could be
issued for those islands later today or tonight.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 25.9N 44.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 27.2N 43.9W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 28.9N 43.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 01/1200Z 33.7N 38.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 02/1200Z 42.0N 29.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 03/1200Z 50.0N 18.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/1200Z 54.9N 11.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-29 14:59

WTNT33 KNHC 291455
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO...
...WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 44.4W
ABOUT 1315 MI...2115 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...938 MB...27.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.
Watches could be issued for those islands later today or tonight.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 44.4 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this
motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the
northeast along with an increase in forward speed should occur on
Monday and continue through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is expected over the next
few days, but Lorenzo is still expected to be a potent hurricane in
a couple of days.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 275 miles (445
km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb (27.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-29 14:59

WTNT23 KNHC 291455
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO.
WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED FOR THOSE ISLANDS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 44.4W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 938 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 70NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 140SW 180NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 44.4W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 44.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.2N 43.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 35SW 70NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 110SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 140SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.9N 43.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 31.0N 41.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 180SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.7N 38.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
50 KT...140NE 140SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...260NE 260SE 200SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 42.0N 29.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT...160NE 160SE 110SW 110NW.
34 KT...330NE 330SE 240SW 240NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 50.0N 18.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 54.9N 11.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 44.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-29 08:35

WTNT43 KNHC 290833
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

The satellite appearance of Lorenzo is not quite as impressive as it
was several hours ago. Although the eye is still very distinct,
the cloud tops are not as cold in the eyewall and there are a few
dry slots evident beyond the inner core. The initial wind speed is
lowered just slightly to 135 kt, but based on the latest satellite
estimates this is probably generous. The NOAA Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate Lorenzo later today, and the data they
collect should provide a better assessment of the hurricane's
intensity and structure. Very intense hurricanes like Lorenzo are
usually not able to maintain their intensity for very long. Since
Lorenzo will be moving toward cooler waters and into an environment
of drier air and higher wind shear during the next several days,
steady weakening is forecast. Lorenzo is now expected to become
extratropical by day 4, when the cyclone will be over SSTs colder
than 20 C. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the
consensus models, IVCN, IVDR, and HCCA.

Lorenzo is still moving northward at 9 kt through a break in the
Atlantic subtropical ridge. A mid- to upper-level trough currently
over eastern Canada is expected to amplify when it reaches the
central Atlantic, which should cause Lorenzo to accelerate to the
northeast during the next few days. This motion should take the
core of Lorenzo near or just west of the Azores late Tuesday and
Wednesday. After that time, there are significant differences in
the models on whether or not Lorenzo interacts with an extratropical
low over the north Atlantic. The ECMWF and UKMET models show little
interaction with that low and show Lorenzo moving east-northeastward
in the westerlies toward northwestern France, Ireland, and the
United Kingdom. On the other hand, the GFS, HWRF, and HMON models
show Lorenzo rotating around the eastern side of the low and
remaining over the Atlantic. The spread in the models is incredibly
large, about 1300 n mi by day 5. Given the high uncertainty at this
time, only small changes were made to the NHC track forecast, and
this one favors the UKMET and ECMWF solutions. However, confidence
in the long-term track is very low and adjustments may be needed
later today.

The Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch here at NHC provided
input that the large wind field of Lorenzo and its expected
faster forward motion in a few days will likely lead to extreme
enhancement of the wave field and wave growth over the southeastern
portion of the circulation.

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is a large and powerful hurricane, and its hurricane-
and tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
those islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there
should monitor the progress of the hurricane.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the north Atlantic basin during the next few days. These
swells will produce life-threatening surf and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0900Z 25.1N 44.6W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 29/1800Z 26.4N 44.2W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 30/1800Z 29.9N 42.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 01/0600Z 32.2N 40.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 02/0600Z 39.4N 32.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 03/0600Z 47.8N 20.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 04/0600Z 53.5N 10.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-29 08:34

WTNT33 KNHC 290832
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 29 2019

...LORENZO REMAINS A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR ITS PROGRESS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 44.6W
ABOUT 1360 MI...2190 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 44.6 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the
north-northeast is expected later today, followed by a faster
northeast motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track,
Lorenzo is expected to move near or just west of the Azores late
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 155 mph (250 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Although gradual weakening is forecast,
Lorenzo is expected to be a large and powerful hurricane as it
approaches the Azores.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Lorenzo is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 3 to 6 inches over much of the western Azores and 1 to 2 inches
over the central Azores Tuesday and Wednesday. This rainfall could
cause life-threatening flash flooding in the western Azores.

SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are spreading across much of the
North Atlantic basin. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-29 08:34

WTNT23 KNHC 290832
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 44.6W AT 29/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 135 KT WITH GUSTS TO 165 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 110SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 270SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 44.6W AT 29/0900Z
AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 44.7W

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.4N 44.2W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.9N 42.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 170SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 32.2N 40.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 260SE 200SW 190NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 39.4N 32.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...140NE 150SE 120SW 110NW.
34 KT...270NE 280SE 240SW 220NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 47.8N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 53.5N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.1N 44.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-29 02:37

WTNT43 KNHC 290235
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

Lorenzo has rapidly strengthened this evening. An eyewall
replacement cycle completed earlier today, with a recent SSMIS
microwave overpass showing that a new eyewall about 30 n mi in
diameter now completely encircles the eye. The cold cloud tops
surrounding the eye have expanded, with a solid ring of temperatures
measuring colder than minus 70 degrees Celsius. In addition, the
eye has cleared, with satellite derived cloud-top temperatures now
above 15 degrees Celsius. Throughout the evening, the objective and
subjective intensity estimates have climbed, with 0130 UTC special
classifications from TAFB and SAB as well as a recent UW-CIMSS ADT
estimate unanimously agreeing on a 140-kt initial intensity. This
makes Lorenzo an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane.

The initial motion is now northward at 9 kt. Lorenzo will be
steered north through a break between two subtropical ridges through
tonight, with a turn to the north-northeast expected on Sunday.
After Sunday, Lorenzo will begin to get caught up in increasing
southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. This
will cause the cyclone to accelerate northeastward through the end
of the forecast period. The official track forecast is essentially
an update of the previous one, and is near the middle of the
consensus aids.

Lorenzo will likely peak in intensity overnight as it remains in the
current favorable environment. Some fluctuations in intensity are
possible on Sunday mainly due to eyewall replacement cycles. By
Sunday night, Lorenzo will begin to feel the effects of some
southwesterly shear ahead of the approaching trough, while it also
moves over waters of lower oceanic heat content. These factors
should induce a steady weakening trend through 48 hours. After that
time, SSTs below 26 C should cause a faster weakening trend. By 72
hours, the cyclone will begin interacting with the approaching
trough and an associated cold front, which will begin a transition
to an extratropical low. This transition is forecast to complete by
120 hours, but it could happen a little sooner than that. The
official forecast was increased through the first 48 hours due to
the increase in initial intensity, and then blends to near the
previous official forecast by 72 hours.

With this latest advisory intensity, Lorenzo becomes the strongest
hurricane in history this far north and east in the Atlantic basin.


Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and
tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should
monitor the progress of the hurricane.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during
the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 24.2N 44.9W 140 KT 160 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 25.5N 44.7W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 27.1N 44.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 01/0000Z 30.8N 42.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 02/0000Z 36.7N 35.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 03/0000Z 45.0N 23.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 52.2N 10.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-29 02:36

WTNT33 KNHC 290234
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

...LARGE AND POWERFUL CATEGORY 5 LORENZO BECOMES THE STRONGEST
HURRICANE THIS FAR NORTH AND EAST IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 44.9W
ABOUT 1420 MI...2285 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.32 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 44.9 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn to the
north-northeast is expected on Sunday, followed by a turn to the
northeast by Monday. A faster northeast motion is expected by
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph (260 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is now a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible
through Sunday. A weakening trend is forecast to begin Sunday
night. However, Lorenzo is expected to be a large and potent
hurricane as is approaches the Azores in a few days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles
(445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb (27.32 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are
expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the
United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected
to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-29 02:36

WTNT23 KNHC 290234
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 44.9W AT 29/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 140 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 110SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 390SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 44.9W AT 29/0300Z
AT 29/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 45.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.5N 44.7W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 160 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.1N 44.1W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.3W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 30.8N 42.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 36.7N 35.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 45.0N 23.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 52.2N 10.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 44.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-29 02:10

WTNT63 KNHC 290207
TCUAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1010 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019


...LORENZO STRENGTHENS INTO A CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE...

Recent satellite data indicate that Lorenzo has continued to
rapidly strengthen to an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane
with maximum sustained winds near 160 mph (260 km/h). This
increase in intensity will be reflected in the forecast issued at
11 pm AST (0300 UTC).


SUMMARY OF 1010 PM AST...0210 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 45.0W
ABOUT 1410 MI...2270 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Latto

>

2019-09-29 00:08

WTNT43 KNHC 290006
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Special Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

The satellite presentation of Lorenzo has improved throughout this
evening, and the ring of cloud tops surrounding the eye have
become wider and colder. This has resulted in both subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates increasing to a 6.5 on the
Dvorak scale, indicative of a 125 kt hurricane. Based on this data,
a special advisory is being issued at this time to increase the
initial intensity, and the 12-hour and 24-hour forecast wind
speeds. No other changes were required to the previous track or
intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and
tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should
monitor the progress of the hurricane.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during
the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0000Z 23.8N 45.0W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-29 00:04

WTNT33 KNHC 290002
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Special Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
800 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

...LORENZO HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 45.0W
ABOUT 1445 MI...2325 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 45.0 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast on Sunday, followed by a faster motion
toward the northeast beginning Monday or Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Lorenzo will be approaching the Azores on
Tuesday.

Satellite data indicate that the maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is
a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Fluctuations in intensity are possible tonight and early Sunday.
Lorenzo is expected to gradually weaken Sunday night through
Tuesday, but it will remain a large and potent hurricane while it
approaches the Azores.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are
expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the
United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected
to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-29 00:03

WTNT23 KNHC 290000
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0000 UTC SUN SEP 29 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 45.0W AT 29/0000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 942 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 110SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 45.0W AT 29/0000Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 45.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 45.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-28 20:42

WTNT43 KNHC 282040
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a research mission has
been invaluable in helping us to observe reintensification after
Lorenzo's eyewall replacement. The plane measured a peak 700-mb
flight-level wind of 126 kt and SFMR surface winds as high as 112
kt. In addition, the latest UW-CIMSS SATCON estimate is 114 kt.
These data support increasing the initial intensity to 115 kt, which
makes Lorenzo a category 4 hurricane again. The plane also reported
a circular eye 34 n mi wide and a central pressure around 950 mb.

Lorenzo is moving northward, or 355/9 kt, through a gap in the
subtropical ridge. The western Atlantic ridge is becoming stronger
than the eastern Atlantic ridge, and this should help to nudge
Lorenzo north-northeastward between 24-48 hours. After that
period, a deep-layer trough over the north Atlantic should turn
Lorenzo northeastward, with the hurricane's forward motion
accelerating as it becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies.
The updated NHC track forecast has been placed near the HCCA model
and the other consensus aids, which keeps it very close to the
previous official forecast, at least through day 4. Some southward
adjustment of the track was made at day 5 based on the latest
global model guidance.

Fluctuations in Lorenzo's intensity are possible over the next day
or so. However, on the whole, moderate westerly shear and
decreasing oceanic heat content ahead of the hurricane are expected
to contribute to a very gradual weakening trend over the next 3
days. After day 3, Lorenzo is forecast to begin interacting with
an approaching cold front from the northwest, which would start
extratropical transition. The global models indicate that the
transition should be complete soon after 96 hours, so for the
moment the advisory continues to show tropical status on day 4.
Faster weakening is expected during and after extratropical
transition, and the updated NHC intensity forecast has been lowered
slightly from the previous forecast on days 4 and 5.

Key Messages:

1. Lorenzo is a large hurricane, and its hurricane- and
tropical-storm-force wind fields are expected to expand further
during the next several days. Regardless of Lorenzo's exact track
near the Azores, strong winds are becoming increasingly likely on
the islands Tuesday night and Wednesday, and residents there should
monitor the progress of the hurricane.

2. Large swells generated by Lorenzo will continue to spread across
much of the western and northern parts of the Atlantic basin during
the next few days. These swells will produce life-threatening surf
and rip currents.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/2100Z 23.3N 45.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-28 20:41

WTNT33 KNHC 282039
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT LORENZO HAS
RESTRENGTHENED INTO A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.3N 45.0W
ABOUT 1470 MI...2365 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 355 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Lorenzo was located
near latitude 23.3 North, longitude 45.0 West. Lorenzo is moving
toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northeast is forecast on Sunday, followed by a faster motion
toward the northeast beginning Monday or Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Lorenzo will be approaching the Azores on
Tuesday.

Data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 130 mph (215 km/h) with
higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next day or so. Lorenzo is expected to
gradually weaken through Tuesday, but it will remain a large and
potent hurricane while it approaches the Azores.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The minimum central pressure based on data from the plane is 950 mb
(28.06 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are
expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the
United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected
to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-28 20:41

WTNT23 KNHC 282039
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE AZORES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LORENZO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 45.0W AT 28/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 950 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 35SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 110SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 330SE 390SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 45.0W AT 28/2100Z
AT 28/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 45.0W

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.6N 44.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 120SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.3N 44.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 130SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.0N 43.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 80SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 210SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 29.7N 42.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 230SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 34.8N 38.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 260SE 220SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 42.5N 26.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 49.0N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.3N 45.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-28 15:58

WTNT82 EGRR 281556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 28.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 102.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2019 0 13.7N 102.9W 1005 27
0000UTC 29.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 44.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2019 0 21.9N 44.7W 952 79
0000UTC 29.09.2019 12 23.5N 44.7W 945 82
1200UTC 29.09.2019 24 25.0N 44.4W 939 84
0000UTC 30.09.2019 36 26.3N 44.0W 937 86
1200UTC 30.09.2019 48 27.6N 43.4W 931 85
0000UTC 01.10.2019 60 29.4N 42.6W 916 93
1200UTC 01.10.2019 72 31.4N 41.0W 912 95
0000UTC 02.10.2019 84 33.9N 37.9W 917 89
1200UTC 02.10.2019 96 37.0N 33.5W 934 72
0000UTC 03.10.2019 108 40.0N 28.1W 956 60
1200UTC 03.10.2019 120 42.9N 22.1W 972 51
0000UTC 04.10.2019 132 44.8N 15.0W 984 43
1200UTC 04.10.2019 144 46.7N 8.0W 995 42

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 30.1N 57.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 28.09.2019 0 30.1N 57.7W 1011 23
0000UTC 29.09.2019 12 30.6N 58.6W 1011 23
1200UTC 29.09.2019 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 16.6N 101.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2019 24 16.6N 101.9W 1001 40
0000UTC 30.09.2019 36 18.5N 104.4W 999 45
1200UTC 30.09.2019 48 19.8N 106.3W 998 43
0000UTC 01.10.2019 60 21.6N 108.6W 991 44
1200UTC 01.10.2019 72 23.0N 110.3W 992 43
0000UTC 02.10.2019 84 25.2N 111.1W 1000 36
1200UTC 02.10.2019 96 27.9N 111.5W 998 36
0000UTC 03.10.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.5N 142.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2019 60 12.5N 142.2W 1004 28
1200UTC 01.10.2019 72 13.6N 141.8W 1003 31
0000UTC 02.10.2019 84 14.2N 141.3W 1000 35
1200UTC 02.10.2019 96 15.7N 140.2W 993 47
0000UTC 03.10.2019 108 16.8N 139.6W 988 54
1200UTC 03.10.2019 120 17.1N 139.7W 998 43
0000UTC 04.10.2019 132 17.2N 141.1W 1002 37
1200UTC 04.10.2019 144 16.3N 142.8W 1005 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.5N 127.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2019 108 12.5N 126.6W 1004 28
1200UTC 03.10.2019 120 12.0N 126.9W 1004 30
0000UTC 04.10.2019 132 12.9N 126.8W 1004 26
1200UTC 04.10.2019 144 13.6N 127.5W 1005 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281556

>

2019-09-28 15:57

WTNT80 EGRR 281556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 28.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 102.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.09.2019 13.7N 102.9W WEAK
00UTC 29.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 21.9N 44.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 28.09.2019 21.9N 44.7W INTENSE
00UTC 29.09.2019 23.5N 44.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.09.2019 25.0N 44.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.09.2019 26.3N 44.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 27.6N 43.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2019 29.4N 42.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.10.2019 31.4N 41.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 33.9N 37.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2019 37.0N 33.5W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 03.10.2019 40.0N 28.1W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 03.10.2019 42.9N 22.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.10.2019 44.8N 15.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.10.2019 46.7N 8.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 16.6N 101.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2019 16.6N 101.9W WEAK
00UTC 30.09.2019 18.5N 104.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 19.8N 106.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2019 21.6N 108.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2019 23.0N 110.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 25.2N 111.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2019 27.9N 111.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 12.5N 142.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2019 12.5N 142.2W WEAK
12UTC 01.10.2019 13.6N 141.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 14.2N 141.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2019 15.7N 140.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2019 16.8N 139.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2019 17.1N 139.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2019 17.2N 141.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2019 16.3N 142.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.5N 127.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.10.2019 12.5N 126.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2019 12.0N 126.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 12.9N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.10.2019 13.6N 127.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 281556

>

2019-09-28 14:49

WTNT43 KNHC 281447
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

Lorenzo appears to be in the final stages of an eyewall
replacement. 37-GHz GCOM imagery from overnight suggested that a
smaller inner eyewall was embedded within a larger eye, and the new
eyewall now extends 40-45 n mi from the center of circulation. An
eye has also reappeared in GOES-16 visible and infrared satellite
imagery during the past several hours. Based on Dvorak intensity
estimates of T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, and an ADT estimate of
T5.3/97 kt, Lorenzo's intensity is still estimated to be 100 kt.

Although the hurricane seems to be wobbling a bit, fixes indicate
that it has generally turned northward with an initial motion of
350/9 kt. The track forecast remains straightforward, with very
little spread among the models and their ensembles. Lorenzo is
expected to be nudged north-northeastward and then northeastward
starting in 36 hours by strong ridging building over the western
Atlantic. The northeastward motion is expected to increase on day
3 when Lorenzo is picked up by a strong deep-layer trough over the
north Atlantic, and that acceleration is forecast to continue
through day 5. The NHC track forecast lies near the consensus aids
and is very similar to the previous forecast.

A little bit of west-southwesterly shear continues over Lorenzo,
but it's not strong enough to disrupt the circulation
significantly. Only a very slow, gradual weakening is forecast
during the next 3 days, matching what is indicated by many of the
intensity models. Extratropical transition is expected to have
begun by day 4 while Lorenzo is moving near the Azores, but that
process is not expected to be complete until day 5. Although
Lorenzo's winds are forecast to decrease a bit during the
extratropical transition due to stronger shear and cold waters, the
cyclone is expected to maintain hurricane-force winds through the
end of the forecast period.

Lorenzo's wind field will remain large, and the hurricane-force
wind radii are expected to grow in size during the next couple of
days. In addition, large swells continue to radiate outward away
from the hurricane and will reach much of the western and northern
side of the Atlantic basin in a few days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1500Z 22.5N 44.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 29/0000Z 23.8N 44.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 29/1200Z 25.6N 44.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 30/0000Z 27.1N 43.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 33.3N 39.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 40.5N 29.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 51.0N 16.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-28 14:49

WTNT33 KNHC 281447
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

...LORENZO TURNS NORTHWARD, STILL AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...LARGE SWELLS CONTINUE TO RADIATE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.5N 44.8W
ABOUT 1500 MI...2415 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 22.5 North, longitude 44.8 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Sunday morning. A turn
toward the north-northeast is forecast on Sunday, followed by a
faster motion toward the northeast beginning Monday or Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Only very gradual weakening is expected
during the next few days, and Lorenzo is forecast to remain a
strong hurricane when it turns toward northeastward towards the
Azores.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles and are
expected to spread westward to portions of the north coasts of the
Greater Antilles, the Bahamas, Bermuda, and the east coast of the
United States during the next few days. Swells are also expected
to build near the Azores on Sunday and Monday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-28 14:49

WTNT23 KNHC 281447
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 44.8W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......240NE 190SE 120SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..390NE 300SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 44.8W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 44.6W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.8N 44.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 45SE 40SW 45NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 190SE 130SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.6N 44.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 55NE 55SE 45SW 50NW.
50 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...210NE 200SE 130SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.1N 43.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 55SE 50SW 55NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 140SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 28.8N 43.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 65NE 65SE 55SW 55NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...210NE 220SE 160SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 33.3N 39.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...130NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 250SE 210SW 190NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 40.5N 29.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 51.0N 16.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 44.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-28 08:58

WTNT43 KNHC 280856
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

Lorenzo's tilt has grown this morning. AMSR2 imagery at 0505 UTC
showed a 20 n mi displacement between the low- and mid-level centers
of the hurricane, a consequence of persistent westerly wind shear.
Satellite-based intensity estimates vary greatly, from 77 to 110 kt,
so the intensity is set to 100 kt as a compromise of all available
data. Despite the decrease in Lorenzo's maximum winds during the
past 24 hours, earlier ASCAT-C data showed that its hurricane-force
wind field has expanded, and now reaches up to 45 n mi to the
northeast of the center.

The lower initial intensity resulted in a slightly lower intensity
forecast through most of the period. The wind shear affecting the
cyclone is forecast to continue, and a slow decrease in Lorenzo's
peak winds is still expected during the next several days. The
official intensity forecast is very near the intensity consensus.
Despite the expected decrease in intensity, the hurricane is not
forecast to decrease in size, and in fact Lorenzo's hurricane-force
wind field could increase further by next week. Because of that,
users are urged to not focus on the exact intensity of Lorenzo since
the cyclone will likely remain a powerful storm well into next week.
By 120 h, all of the global models indicate that Lorenzo will become
post-tropical, and so does the NHC forecast.

The aforementioned microwave data was very helpful in identifying
Lorenzo's center location. The hurricane has continued to move left
of the forecast track, and the initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt.
Despite Lorenzo's recent tendency to move farther west than
anticipated, the hurricane is still forecast to turn northward soon.
After continuing northward and north-northeastward for a day or two,
Lorenzo should accelerate toward the northeast ahead of a deep
mid-latitude trough approaching from the west by mid-week. The NHC
track forecast has been shifted slightly left for the first 48 h to
account for Lorenzo's recent motion, but it is very similar to the
previous forecast at 72 h and beyond. The models are in excellent
agreement for the first 3 days of the forecast but the uncertainty
grows by the end of the period, primarily due to differences in the
forecast forward speed of the cyclone as it recurves and becomes
post-tropical.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0900Z 21.4N 44.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 22.7N 44.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 24.5N 44.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 29/1800Z 26.0N 44.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 30/0600Z 27.6N 43.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 31.5N 40.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 02/0600Z 38.0N 32.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 03/0600Z 48.0N 19.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-28 08:46

WTNT33 KNHC 280844
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 28 2019

...LARGE LORENZO STILL A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 44.8W
ABOUT 1560 MI...2510 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 44.8 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn
toward the north is anticipated today, followed by a turn toward
the north-northeast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the
next few days, however, Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through the weekend.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane and hurricane-force winds extend
outward up to 50 miles (85 km) from the center.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 290 miles (465 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb (28.26 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-28 08:44

WTNT23 KNHC 280842
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 44.8W AT 28/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 957 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 35SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT.......120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT.......250NE 170SE 120SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 330SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 44.8W AT 28/0900Z
AT 28/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 44.6W

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.7N 44.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 35SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 170SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.5N 44.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 170SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.0N 44.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 27.6N 43.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 210SE 160SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 31.5N 40.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE 180SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 38.0N 32.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 48.0N 19.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 44.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-28 03:59

WTNT82 EGRR 280358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 28.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 29.6N 58.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2019 0 29.6N 58.0W 1010 23
1200UTC 28.09.2019 12 30.3N 58.1W 1011 25
0000UTC 29.09.2019 24 30.7N 59.3W 1010 23
1200UTC 29.09.2019 36 31.7N 61.0W 1011 21
0000UTC 30.09.2019 48 32.6N 62.5W 1010 27
1200UTC 30.09.2019 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 97.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2019 0 14.3N 97.5W 1004 27
1200UTC 28.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 44.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2019 0 20.3N 44.1W 951 75
1200UTC 28.09.2019 12 21.7N 44.4W 949 80
0000UTC 29.09.2019 24 23.5N 44.1W 942 83
1200UTC 29.09.2019 36 24.9N 43.8W 939 84
0000UTC 30.09.2019 48 26.4N 43.0W 936 82
1200UTC 30.09.2019 60 27.8N 42.4W 921 92
0000UTC 01.10.2019 72 29.2N 41.7W 909 96
1200UTC 01.10.2019 84 31.0N 40.3W 908 95
0000UTC 02.10.2019 96 33.1N 37.2W 915 93
1200UTC 02.10.2019 108 36.0N 32.9W 926 78
0000UTC 03.10.2019 120 39.4N 27.7W 947 66
1200UTC 03.10.2019 132 42.8N 22.0W 965 54
0000UTC 04.10.2019 144 46.0N 14.5W 978 47

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 19.0N 102.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 28.09.2019 0 19.0N 102.6W 1002 23
1200UTC 28.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 16.4N 101.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2019 36 16.9N 102.9W 997 38
0000UTC 30.09.2019 48 18.6N 104.8W 994 49
1200UTC 30.09.2019 60 21.5N 106.8W 991 51
0000UTC 01.10.2019 72 23.2N 109.0W 996 40
1200UTC 01.10.2019 84 24.1N 109.7W 1001 38
0000UTC 02.10.2019 96 26.7N 110.2W 1001 40
1200UTC 02.10.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.8N 141.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2019 60 12.0N 140.9W 1005 27
0000UTC 01.10.2019 72 13.0N 140.6W 1003 34
1200UTC 01.10.2019 84 14.0N 140.0W 1001 33
0000UTC 02.10.2019 96 15.6N 138.8W 995 40
1200UTC 02.10.2019 108 16.6N 138.2W 988 50
0000UTC 03.10.2019 120 17.2N 137.6W 989 53
1200UTC 03.10.2019 132 17.2N 137.8W 996 45
0000UTC 04.10.2019 144 16.8N 138.7W 1000 37

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.4N 127.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2019 84 14.9N 127.2W 1006 26
0000UTC 02.10.2019 96 13.9N 126.1W 1005 26
1200UTC 02.10.2019 108 12.9N 125.7W 1004 31
0000UTC 03.10.2019 120 12.2N 125.6W 1003 28
1200UTC 03.10.2019 132 11.7N 125.6W 1003 29
0000UTC 04.10.2019 144 11.9N 125.9W 1001 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.1N 150.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2019 96 11.1N 150.9W 1005 26
1200UTC 02.10.2019 108 11.7N 150.7W 1006 20
0000UTC 03.10.2019 120 12.4N 150.5W 1005 21
1200UTC 03.10.2019 132 13.2N 151.5W 1006 23
0000UTC 04.10.2019 144 13.7N 153.5W 1006 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.8N 119.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2019 96 12.8N 119.9W 1006 25
1200UTC 02.10.2019 108 11.9N 119.3W 1006 22
0000UTC 03.10.2019 120 11.5N 118.9W 1006 25
1200UTC 03.10.2019 132 11.6N 118.6W 1006 24
0000UTC 04.10.2019 144 12.4N 118.1W 1007 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280358

>

2019-09-28 03:59

WTNT80 EGRR 280358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 28.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 29.6N 58.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.09.2019 29.6N 58.0W WEAK
12UTC 28.09.2019 30.3N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2019 30.7N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2019 31.7N 61.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2019 32.6N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 97.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP942019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.09.2019 14.3N 97.5W WEAK
12UTC 28.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 20.3N 44.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 28.09.2019 20.3N 44.1W INTENSE
12UTC 28.09.2019 21.7N 44.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2019 23.5N 44.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.09.2019 24.9N 43.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2019 26.4N 43.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 27.8N 42.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.10.2019 29.2N 41.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2019 31.0N 40.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 33.1N 37.2W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2019 36.0N 32.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2019 39.4N 27.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 03.10.2019 42.8N 22.0W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 04.10.2019 46.0N 14.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 16.4N 101.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2019 16.9N 102.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.09.2019 18.6N 104.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 21.5N 106.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2019 23.2N 109.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2019 24.1N 109.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2019 26.7N 110.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 11.8N 141.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.09.2019 12.0N 140.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2019 13.0N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2019 14.0N 140.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 15.6N 138.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2019 16.6N 138.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2019 17.2N 137.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2019 17.2N 137.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.10.2019 16.8N 138.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 15.4N 127.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.10.2019 14.9N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 13.9N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2019 12.9N 125.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 12.2N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2019 11.7N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 11.9N 125.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.1N 150.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2019 11.1N 150.9W WEAK
12UTC 02.10.2019 11.7N 150.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 12.4N 150.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2019 13.2N 151.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 13.7N 153.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.8N 119.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2019 12.8N 119.9W WEAK
12UTC 02.10.2019 11.9N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 11.5N 118.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2019 11.6N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.10.2019 12.4N 118.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 280358

>

2019-09-28 02:38

WTNT43 KNHC 280236
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

Lorenzo's cloud pattern has continued to deteriorate this evening.
A series of SSMI and GMI microwave overpasses revealed inner core
erosion, particularly in the south portion. The images also showed
a significant south to north vertical tilt of the cyclone,
indicative of the moderate southwesterly shear undercutting the
impressive upper-tropospheric diffluent flow. A blend of all the
available subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates, as
well as an earlier SATCON analysis, yields an initial intensity of
105 kt for this advisory.

Lorenzo will remain over warm oceanic sea surface temperatures for
the next 3 days. Nonetheless, the stiff southwesterly shear should
inhibit strengthening, although there is a slight chance of
short-term fluctuations in intensity caused by eyewall replacement
cycles. Beyond the 72 hour period, Lorenzo is expected to encounter
stronger mid-latitude westerlies, move over cooler waters, and
undergo extratropical transition as it interacts with a baroclinic
zone moving over the central north Atlantic. The NHC forecast is an
update of the previous advisory and is based on a blend of the HFIP
Corrected Consensus and Florida State Superensemble intensity
models.

The aforementioned microwave images also indicate that Lorenzo has
been moving a little to the left of track, and the initial motion is
estimated to be north-northwestward, or 335/8 kt. The song remains
the same, no change in the track forecast philosophy. Lorenzo should
turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it
moves around the western periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge
anchored over the eastern Atlantic. Around mid-period, Lorenzo is
forecast to accelerate toward the northeast, in the mid-latitude
westerly flow, in response to a deep-layer major shortwave trough
approaching from the north-central Atlantic. The track forecast has
been adjusted slightly to the left of the previous one and is close
to the various consensus aids.

The wind radii have been adjusted using 2308 UTC METOP-B
scatterometer data. The forecast wind radii, beyond the 48 hour
period, is based primarily on the RVCN global consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 20.8N 44.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 23.7N 44.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 25.4N 44.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 27.0N 43.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 30.7N 41.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 36.5N 34.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 03/0000Z 45.5N 22.9W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-28 02:37

WTNT33 KNHC 280235
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...LORENZO MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 44.1W
ABOUT 1565 MI...2520 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 44.1 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn
toward the north is expected by Saturday night, followed by a turn
toward the north-northeast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the
next few days. However, Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through the weekend.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that Lorenzo is still a very
large tropical cyclone. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to
35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds
extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and the Lesser Antilles. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-28 02:35

WTNT23 KNHC 280233
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 28 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 44.1W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT.......120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......240NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 360SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.8N 44.1W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 44.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...240NE 200SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.7N 44.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.4N 44.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.0N 43.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 200SE 120SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 30.7N 41.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 240SE 180SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 36.5N 34.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 45.5N 22.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.8N 44.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-27 20:38

WTNT43 KNHC 272035
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

The satellite appearance of Lorenzo has degraded further since the
last advisory, with only a hint of an eye still apparent in visible
imagery and the cold cloud tops in the eyewall becoming very
asymmetric in infrared imagery. A recent SSMI/S overpass shows
that the southern portion of the eyewall has eroded, possibly due to
shear or dry air intrusion. The microwave imagery also suggests an
outer convective band is forming, but it is not yet well enough
defined to call it an outer eyewall. Satellite intensity estimates
have continued to decrease, and the initial intensity is lowered to
110 kt as a blend of the various estimates. The hurricane continues
to have excellent outflow in the northern semicircle.

The initial motion remains 330/12 kt. There is no change in the
track forecast philosophy or the forecast confidence, as Lorenzo
should turn northward and then northeastward during the next few
days as it moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge
centered over the eastern Atlantic. Later in the forecast period,
the cyclone is expected to accelerate northeastward in the
mid-latitude westerlies ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching
from the west. The track guidance for this advisory, while it
remains tightly clustered in direction, is a little slower than the
previous guidance. Based on this, the new forecast track is just a
little slower than the previous forecast.

Lorenzo will be passing over sea surface temperatures of 27-28C for
the next 48-72 h. However, it will be in an environment of moderate
vertical shear due to an upper-level trough not far to the west.
The intensity guidance responds to this by showing gradual
weakening during this time, and the new intensity forecast follows
the trend of the guidance. There is a possibility of fluctuations
in intensity caused by eyewall replacement cycles superimposed on
this weakening trend. After 72 h, the hurricane should encounter
stronger mid-latitude westerlies, move over cooler sea surface
temperatures, and eventually merge with the above-mentioned
deep-layer trough. As this occurs, Lorenzo is forecast to undergo
extratropical transition, with this being complete by 120 h.
Current indications from the global models are that Lorenzo will
retain hurricane strength through the transition.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/2100Z 20.3N 43.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 28/0600Z 21.6N 44.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 28/1800Z 23.3N 44.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 29/0600Z 25.0N 44.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 29/1800Z 26.6N 43.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 30/1800Z 30.3N 41.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 01/1800Z 35.5N 36.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 02/1800Z 44.0N 26.5W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-27 20:37

WTNT33 KNHC 272034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...LORENZO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT REMAINS VERY LARGE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.3N 43.6W
ABOUT 1575 MI...2535 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 20.3 North, longitude 43.6 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue tonight. A turn toward the
north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the
north-northeast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the
next few days. However, Lorenzo is expected to remain a powerful
hurricane through the weekend.

A combination of satellite wind data and reports from a NOAA
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Lorenzo remains a large
hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend
outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 948 mb (28.00 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and will affect portions of the
Lesser Antilles beginning tonight through Saturday. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-27 20:36

WTNT23 KNHC 272034
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 43.6W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT.......150NE 130SE 50SW 130NW.
34 KT.......230NE 220SE 120SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 360SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 43.6W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 43.3W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.6N 44.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 130NW.
34 KT...230NE 220SE 120SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.3N 44.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 120SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.0N 44.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 35NW.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.6N 43.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 30.3N 41.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE 160SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 35.5N 36.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 44.0N 26.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 43.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-27 15:59

WTNT82 EGRR 271558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 27.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 18.3N 106.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2019 0 18.3N 106.1W 1008 25
0000UTC 28.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 28.6N 60.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2019 0 28.6N 60.0W 1009 27
0000UTC 28.09.2019 12 29.4N 58.4W 1011 22
1200UTC 28.09.2019 24 30.2N 58.1W 1011 24
0000UTC 29.09.2019 36 30.8N 59.3W 1011 24
1200UTC 29.09.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 42.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2019 0 18.8N 42.4W 961 66
0000UTC 28.09.2019 12 20.6N 43.1W 952 79
1200UTC 28.09.2019 24 22.2N 43.4W 950 80
0000UTC 29.09.2019 36 24.0N 43.1W 949 71
1200UTC 29.09.2019 48 25.7N 42.5W 937 87
0000UTC 30.09.2019 60 27.5N 41.5W 922 93
1200UTC 30.09.2019 72 29.2N 40.6W 918 91
0000UTC 01.10.2019 84 31.1N 39.6W 908 101
1200UTC 01.10.2019 96 33.9N 36.9W 913 92
0000UTC 02.10.2019 108 37.3N 32.5W 927 77
1200UTC 02.10.2019 120 42.4N 26.7W 943 67
0000UTC 03.10.2019 132 48.5N 22.1W 954 56
1200UTC 03.10.2019 144 51.6N 16.2W 965 48

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 35.0N 59.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 27.09.2019 0 35.0N 59.7W 1009 24
0000UTC 28.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 15.7N 99.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2019 36 16.5N 100.8W 999 47
1200UTC 29.09.2019 48 17.5N 104.0W 998 38
0000UTC 30.09.2019 60 18.6N 105.0W 995 43
1200UTC 30.09.2019 72 22.7N 107.0W 996 41
0000UTC 01.10.2019 84 24.4N 109.5W 1000 35
1200UTC 01.10.2019 96 25.3N 110.3W 1002 31
0000UTC 02.10.2019 108 27.5N 110.9W 1003 27
1200UTC 02.10.2019 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.8N 141.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2019 60 11.8N 141.3W 1006 23
1200UTC 30.09.2019 72 12.4N 141.0W 1005 27
0000UTC 01.10.2019 84 13.2N 140.6W 1003 33
1200UTC 01.10.2019 96 13.5N 140.2W 1001 34
0000UTC 02.10.2019 108 14.8N 139.0W 995 43
1200UTC 02.10.2019 120 16.0N 138.7W 989 54
0000UTC 03.10.2019 132 16.9N 138.4W 988 52
1200UTC 03.10.2019 144 17.3N 138.5W 996 46

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.7N 123.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2019 84 14.7N 123.0W 1007 27
1200UTC 01.10.2019 96 13.9N 121.9W 1006 26
0000UTC 02.10.2019 108 13.0N 121.2W 1005 24
1200UTC 02.10.2019 120 12.3N 120.9W 1005 26
0000UTC 03.10.2019 132 12.0N 120.7W 1005 21
1200UTC 03.10.2019 144 11.9N 120.9W 1006 19

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.6N 153.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2019 108 10.6N 153.6W 1004 26
1200UTC 02.10.2019 120 11.0N 153.5W 1004 27
0000UTC 03.10.2019 132 11.7N 154.1W 1003 28
1200UTC 03.10.2019 144 12.3N 155.1W 1002 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 12.3N 126.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.10.2019 120 11.9N 126.8W 1006 25
0000UTC 03.10.2019 132 11.1N 127.3W 1005 23
1200UTC 03.10.2019 144 10.3N 127.7W 1006 22

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 32.3N 12.9E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.10.2019 144 32.5N 14.8E 1003 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271558

>

2019-09-27 15:59

WTNT80 EGRR 271558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 27.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 18.3N 106.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.09.2019 18.3N 106.1W WEAK
00UTC 28.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 28.6N 60.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.09.2019 28.6N 60.0W WEAK
00UTC 28.09.2019 29.4N 58.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2019 30.2N 58.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2019 30.8N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.8N 42.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 27.09.2019 18.8N 42.4W STRONG
00UTC 28.09.2019 20.6N 43.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2019 22.2N 43.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2019 24.0N 43.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2019 25.7N 42.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.09.2019 27.5N 41.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.09.2019 29.2N 40.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2019 31.1N 39.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2019 33.9N 36.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2019 37.3N 32.5W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.10.2019 42.4N 26.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 03.10.2019 48.5N 22.1W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.10.2019 51.6N 16.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 15.7N 99.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.09.2019 16.5N 100.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.09.2019 17.5N 104.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2019 18.6N 105.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 22.7N 107.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2019 24.4N 109.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2019 25.3N 110.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 27.5N 110.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.8N 141.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.09.2019 11.8N 141.3W WEAK
12UTC 30.09.2019 12.4N 141.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2019 13.2N 140.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2019 13.5N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 14.8N 139.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2019 16.0N 138.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.10.2019 16.9N 138.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2019 17.3N 138.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 14.7N 123.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2019 14.7N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2019 13.9N 121.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 13.0N 121.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2019 12.3N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 12.0N 120.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2019 11.9N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.6N 153.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2019 10.6N 153.6W WEAK
12UTC 02.10.2019 11.0N 153.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 11.7N 154.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2019 12.3N 155.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 12.3N 126.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.10.2019 11.9N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 11.1N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.10.2019 10.3N 127.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 32.3N 12.9E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.10.2019 32.5N 14.8E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 271558

>

2019-09-27 14:44

WTNT43 KNHC 271442
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

The structure of Lorenzo in conventional satellite imagery has
decayed a little since the last advisory, with the eye becoming
less distinct and the eyewall convection becoming more asymmetric.
There is no current microwave imagery to show whether this
weakening might be due to the start of an eyewall replacement
cycle or not. The various subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates have decreased a little, so the initial
intensity is reduced to 120 kt. The hurricane has excellent cirrus
outflow in all directions except to the southwest.

The initial motion is 330/12 kt. There is no change in the track
forecast philosophy or the forecast confidence, as Lorenzo should
turn northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it
moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the
eastern Atlantic. By the end of the forecast period, Lorenzo is
expected to accelerate northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies
ahead of a deep-layer trough approaching from the west. The new
forecast track is nudged a little to the left of the previous track
based mainly on the initial position, and it lies near the various
consensus models.

Lorenzo is currently passing over a tongue of slightly cooler sea
surface temperatures, and it is forecast to reach slightly warmer
water in 12-24 h. After that, it stays over sea surface
temperatures near 28C through about 72 h. During this time, the
intensity will be controlled mainly by internal eyewall replacement
cycles and some ups and downs in the vertical shear as the hurricane
interacts with a couple of upper-level troughs. The intensity
guidance shows a slow weakening trend during this time, and the NHC
intensity forecast follows this. However, it would not be
surprising to see some fluctuations in intensity occur. After 72 h,
the cyclone will become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies and
move over much colder water. This, and the approach of the
aforementioned deep-layer trough, will lead to extratropical
transition that will be underway, but likely not complete, by 120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 19.4N 42.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 20.8N 43.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 22.6N 44.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 24.2N 44.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 25.9N 43.4W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 30/1200Z 29.6N 41.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 01/1200Z 34.5N 37.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 02/1200Z 42.5N 28.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-27 14:43

WTNT33 KNHC 271441
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...LORENZO WEAKENS A LITTLE AS IT MOVES NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 42.9W
ABOUT 1600 MI...2575 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 19.4 North, longitude 42.9 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the
north is expected tonight or on Saturday, followed by a turn toward
the north-northeast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible
today, and slow weakening is forecast to begin by the weekend.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and will affect portions of the
Lesser Antilles beginning later today through Saturday. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-27 14:43

WTNT23 KNHC 271441
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 42.9W AT 27/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT.......150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......230NE 190SE 110SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 330SE 360SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 42.9W AT 27/1500Z
AT 27/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 42.7W

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.8N 43.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 190SE 110SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.6N 44.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...230NE 190SE 110SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.2N 44.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.9N 43.4W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.6N 41.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...230NE 230SE 160SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.5N 37.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 42.5N 28.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 42.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-27 09:01

WTNT43 KNHC 270858
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

Lorenzo has maintained its impressive structure in satellite imagery
this morning. The hurricane still has a fairly clear eye surrounded
by very cold cloud tops. A 0423 UTC AMSR2 overpass showed a small
break in the deepest convection in the southwest eyewall of the
hurricane, but given how cloud tops have cooled since then, I
suspect that did not last long. Satellite intensity estimates have
not changed substantially since the last advisory, so the initial
intensity remains 125 kt.

The hurricane is moving steadily north-northwestward at 12 kt. The
track guidance is in remarkably good agreement on Lorenzo's track
and confidence in the forecast is high. Lorenzo should turn
northward and then northeastward during the next few days as it
moves around the western edge of a mid-level ridge centered over the
eastern Atlantic. By the end of the forecast period, Lorenzo will
likely accelerate northeastward ahead of mid-latitude trough
approaching from the west. The official track forecast is basically
unchanged since the last advisory and now sits right in the middle
of the guidance envelope.

The NHC intensity forecast is also mostly unchanged since the last
advisory. Although SHIPS diagnostics suggest that moderate
southwesterly shear could soon affect the cyclone, not much change
in strength is anticipated for the next 24 hours since Lorenzo will
be moving over slightly warmer waters and an eyewall replacement
cycle does not seem imminent. Gradual weakening is then anticipated
through early next week due to a modest increase in shear and a
decrease in available ocean heat content. Short-term fluctuations in
intensity related to eyewall replacement cycles are also possible
during that time. The NHC forecast remains on the high side of the
guidance for the first 24 hours, and is close to HCCA after that.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 18.6N 42.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 20.1N 42.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 21.8N 43.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 23.5N 43.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 25.1N 43.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 28.7N 41.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 01/0600Z 33.3N 37.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 02/0600Z 40.0N 30.5W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-27 08:57

WTNT33 KNHC 270855
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 27 2019

...POWERFUL LORENZO MAINTAINING STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 42.1W
ABOUT 1620 MI...2605 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...937 MB...27.67 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 18.6 North, longitude 42.1 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue today. A turn toward the
north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn toward the
northeast on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible
today. Slow weakening is forecast to begin by the weekend.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 937 mb (27.67 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo are affecting portions of the
northeastern coast of South America and will affect portions of the
Windward Islands beginning today. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-27 08:52

WTNT23 KNHC 270850
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 42.1W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 937 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT.......150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT.......230NE 190SE 100SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 360SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 42.1W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 41.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 20.1N 42.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 25SW 40NW.
50 KT...150NE 130SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...230NE 190SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.8N 43.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...130NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...230NE 190SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.5N 43.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 25.1N 43.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 28.7N 41.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...110NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 140SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 33.3N 37.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0600Z 40.0N 30.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 42.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-27 03:59

WTNT82 EGRR 270358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 27.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 111.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2019 0 17.1N 111.1W 1010 22
1200UTC 27.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 27.7N 62.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2019 0 27.7N 62.3W 1008 28
1200UTC 27.09.2019 12 28.8N 60.7W 1008 30
0000UTC 28.09.2019 24 29.4N 59.3W 1009 28
1200UTC 28.09.2019 36 29.7N 59.7W 1009 25
0000UTC 29.09.2019 48 29.8N 61.1W 1009 23
1200UTC 29.09.2019 60 30.1N 63.1W 1009 24
0000UTC 30.09.2019 72 30.0N 64.5W 1008 25
1200UTC 30.09.2019 84 29.9N 66.1W 1007 27
0000UTC 01.10.2019 96 29.2N 67.3W 1006 27
1200UTC 01.10.2019 108 29.2N 68.7W 1007 26
0000UTC 02.10.2019 120 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 41.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2019 0 17.0N 41.1W 973 64
1200UTC 27.09.2019 12 18.9N 41.8W 967 69
0000UTC 28.09.2019 24 20.9N 42.5W 965 71
1200UTC 28.09.2019 36 22.9N 42.7W 962 72
0000UTC 29.09.2019 48 25.0N 42.5W 958 70
1200UTC 29.09.2019 60 26.5N 41.5W 950 78
0000UTC 30.09.2019 72 28.3N 40.1W 936 78
1200UTC 30.09.2019 84 30.0N 38.9W 926 86
0000UTC 01.10.2019 96 32.2N 37.5W 921 91
1200UTC 01.10.2019 108 35.2N 34.6W 921 84
0000UTC 02.10.2019 120 39.1N 29.7W 934 74
1200UTC 02.10.2019 132 45.0N 23.7W 948 60
0000UTC 03.10.2019 144 51.9N 22.4W 947 59

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 34.7N 61.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.09.2019 0 34.7N 61.2W 1007 26
1200UTC 27.09.2019 12 35.2N 60.0W 1010 24
0000UTC 28.09.2019 24 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.3N 140.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 30.09.2019 84 12.2N 140.3W 1005 28
0000UTC 01.10.2019 96 13.3N 139.9W 1003 33
1200UTC 01.10.2019 108 14.3N 139.2W 1001 34
0000UTC 02.10.2019 120 15.6N 138.3W 993 49
1200UTC 02.10.2019 132 16.4N 137.9W 989 50
0000UTC 03.10.2019 144 17.0N 138.0W 993 47

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 12.5N 120.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2019 108 12.5N 120.1W 1007 25
0000UTC 02.10.2019 120 11.3N 119.3W 1006 27
1200UTC 02.10.2019 132 10.4N 118.4W 1006 26
0000UTC 03.10.2019 144 10.0N 117.8W 1006 23

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 14.2N 125.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2019 120 13.8N 125.7W 1007 23
1200UTC 02.10.2019 132 12.5N 126.0W 1006 26
0000UTC 03.10.2019 144 12.1N 126.1W 1005 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 30.8N 177.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2019 120 30.8N 177.4W 1007 28
1200UTC 02.10.2019 132 33.8N 173.4W 1008 31
0000UTC 03.10.2019 144 37.0N 169.5W 1009 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 10.6N 155.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2019 144 10.6N 155.4W 1004 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270358

>

2019-09-27 03:59

WTNT80 EGRR 270358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 27.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 111.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.09.2019 17.1N 111.1W WEAK
12UTC 27.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 27.7N 62.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.09.2019 27.7N 62.3W WEAK
12UTC 27.09.2019 28.8N 60.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 29.4N 59.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2019 29.7N 59.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2019 29.8N 61.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2019 30.1N 63.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2019 30.0N 64.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 29.9N 66.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2019 29.2N 67.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2019 29.2N 68.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 41.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.09.2019 17.0N 41.1W STRONG
12UTC 27.09.2019 18.9N 41.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.09.2019 20.9N 42.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2019 22.9N 42.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2019 25.0N 42.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2019 26.5N 41.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.09.2019 28.3N 40.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 30.09.2019 30.0N 38.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2019 32.2N 37.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2019 35.2N 34.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 39.1N 29.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.10.2019 45.0N 23.7W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 03.10.2019 51.9N 22.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 12.3N 140.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 30.09.2019 12.2N 140.3W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.10.2019 13.3N 139.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2019 14.3N 139.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 15.6N 138.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2019 16.4N 137.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 17.0N 138.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 12.5N 120.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.10.2019 12.5N 120.1W WEAK
00UTC 02.10.2019 11.3N 119.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2019 10.4N 118.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 10.0N 117.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 14.2N 125.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2019 13.8N 125.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.10.2019 12.5N 126.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 12.1N 126.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 30.8N 177.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2019 30.8N 177.4W WEAK
12UTC 02.10.2019 33.8N 173.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.10.2019 37.0N 169.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 10.6N 155.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.10.2019 10.6N 155.4W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 270358

>

2019-09-27 02:35

WTNT43 KNHC 270233
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

Lorenzo has intensified even more this evening, with a clear eye
characterized by warm temperatures of up to 17 degrees
Celsius. The eye is now completely surrounded by a ring of
convection with cold cloud tops less than minus 70 degrees Celsius.
The subjective Dvorak intensity estimates from both TAFB and SAB,
as well as the objective intensity estimate from UW-CIMSS ADT
unanimously support increasing the initial intensity to 125 kt.
Lorenzo is a very large hurricane, with tropical storm force winds
extending over 200 n mi from the center in the northern semicircle,
and a cirrus cloud canopy that spans greater than a 10 degree
latitude by 10 degree longitude area.

The initial motion is now north-northwest, or 330/12 kt. Model
guidance is in very good agreement throughout the 5 day period on
the future track of Lorenzo. The hurricane will move through a break
in the subtropical ridge currently to its northwest over the next
couple of days, gradually turning to the north then northeast as it
rounds the periphery of a ridge to its east. Late in the forecast
period, Lorenzo will begin to accelerate as it gets caught in
southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. The
model guidance made a slight shift to the left since the previous
advisory, but since the same guidance shifted right earlier today, I
did not want to make much of a change to the track. The official
forecast track is very near the previous one, and is now on the
right side of the consensus guidance.

The environment around Lorenzo is expected to change little over
the next day or so. Both dynamical and statistical guidance are
suggesting that the hurricane is nearing peak intensity. Therefore
only fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are
expected through about Friday night. Over the weekend, some moderate
westerly shear ahead of the approaching mid-latitude trough could
begin to slowly weaken the cyclone. Late in the forecast period,
the combination of strong upper level southwesterly winds and
cooler sea surface temperatures should cause a faster weakening
trend. The official forecast is essentially an update of the
previous one, and a little higher than most of the guidance through
the first 48 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0300Z 17.6N 41.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 27/1200Z 19.1N 42.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 28/0000Z 21.0N 43.3W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 28/1200Z 22.7N 43.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 29/0000Z 24.4N 43.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 30/0000Z 27.8N 41.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 31.8N 39.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 02/0000Z 37.5N 33.2W 85 KT 100 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-27 02:34

WTNT33 KNHC 270232
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...EXTREMELY POWERFUL LORENZO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE...
...SWELLS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 41.5W
ABOUT 1660 MI...2670 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...939 MB...27.73 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 41.5 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the north-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn to the
north is expected on Saturday, followed by a turn to the northeast
on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible
through Friday night. A slow weakening trend is expected over the
weekend.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 255 miles (405
km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 939 mb (27.73 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo will affect portions of the
northeastern coast of South America beginning tonight, and
will affect portions of the Windward Islands beginning on Friday.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-27 02:33

WTNT23 KNHC 270231
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 27 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 41.5W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 939 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 125 KT WITH GUSTS TO 150 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
34 KT.......220NE 120SE 80SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 330SE 330SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 41.5W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 41.2W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.1N 42.3W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 21.0N 43.3W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 22.7N 43.8W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 24.4N 43.6W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 27.8N 41.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.8N 39.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 37.5N 33.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 41.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-26 20:50

WTNT43 KNHC 262048
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

Lorenzo has continued to intensify this afternoon, as the 20 n mi
wide eye has become better defined and the cloud tops in the
eyewall have gotten colder. Various subjective and objective
satellite intensity estimates are now in the 115-125 kt range, so
the initial intensity is increased to a possibly conservative 120
kt. The hurricane has excellent outflow in all directions except
to the west, where it is starting to interact with an upper-level
trough.

The hurricane has turned toward the northwest since the last
advisory, with the 12-h average motion now 310/10 kt and the shorter
term motion is even more toward the north. Lorenzo is approaching a
break in the subtropical ridge caused by a series of mid-latitude
troughs to the northwest of the hurricane, and the track guidance
models remain in excellent agreement that Lorenzo should recurve
through the break during the forecast period. After 24-36 h, the
guidance has shifted a little more to the right, and this part of
the new track forecast has been nudged a little to the right.

Data from the SHIPS model suggest that Lorenzo will be in an area
of maximum potential intensities of 125-135 kt for the next 3-4
days. This suggests that the current intensification should end
soon as the actual intensity approaches or reaches those speeds.
Fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are
expected during the 12-24 h period. The global models suggest that
Lorenzo's interaction with the aforementioned upper-level trough
should increase during recurvature, which should cause increased
shear and a gradual weakening of the cyclone. As Lorenzo
subsequently moves northeastward in the mid-latitude westerlies,
increased shear and cooler sea surface temperatures should lead to
at least a continued slow weakening. The new intensity forecast
has only minor changes from the previous forecast.

While its exact ranking will be determined later, Lorenzo is one of
the largest and most powerful hurricanes of record for the central
tropical Atlantic, with the only comparable hurricane in recent
times near there being Gabrielle of 1989.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/2100Z 16.5N 40.8W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 27/0600Z 17.6N 41.9W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 27/1800Z 19.6N 43.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 28/0600Z 21.3N 43.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 28/1800Z 22.9N 43.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/1800Z 26.5N 42.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 30/1800Z 30.5N 39.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 01/1800Z 35.5N 35.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-26 20:49

WTNT33 KNHC 262047
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...LARGE AND POWERFUL LORENZO TURNS NORTHWESTWARD...
...SWELLS GENERATED BY THE HURRICANE LIKELY TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 40.8W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1765 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...943 MB...27.85 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 40.8 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected on Friday, followed by a turn toward
the north on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h)
with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
possible tonight, and fluctuations in intensity are expected Friday
and Saturday.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb (27.85 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells generated by Lorenzo will affect portions of the
northeastern coast of South Americas beginning tonight and affect
portions of the Windward Islands beginning on Friday, These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-26 20:48

WTNT23 KNHC 262046
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
2100 UTC THU SEP 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 40.8W AT 26/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 943 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
34 KT.......220NE 120SE 80SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 300SE 300SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 40.8W AT 26/2100Z
AT 26/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 40.5W

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.6N 41.9W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.6N 43.0W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.3N 43.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 22.9N 43.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 110SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 26.5N 42.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 120SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 30.5N 39.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 35.5N 35.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 40.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-26 15:59

WTNT82 EGRR 261558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 26.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 111.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2019 0 16.1N 111.1W 1011 21
0000UTC 27.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 64.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2019 0 26.0N 64.2W 1007 25
0000UTC 27.09.2019 12 27.5N 62.8W 1005 37
1200UTC 27.09.2019 24 28.2N 60.9W 1005 33
0000UTC 28.09.2019 36 28.4N 59.8W 1006 34
1200UTC 28.09.2019 48 28.4N 60.3W 1007 27
0000UTC 29.09.2019 60 28.5N 61.6W 1006 27
1200UTC 29.09.2019 72 28.4N 63.1W 1006 28
0000UTC 30.09.2019 84 28.6N 64.4W 1004 28
1200UTC 30.09.2019 96 28.9N 65.4W 1004 27
0000UTC 01.10.2019 108 28.9N 65.6W 1003 27
1200UTC 01.10.2019 120 29.1N 65.9W 1005 26
0000UTC 02.10.2019 132 28.9N 65.8W 1007 27
1200UTC 02.10.2019 144 28.4N 65.9W 1009 27

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 39.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2019 0 15.1N 39.6W 979 56
0000UTC 27.09.2019 12 17.2N 40.6W 976 61
1200UTC 27.09.2019 24 19.2N 41.4W 962 71
0000UTC 28.09.2019 36 21.5N 41.7W 959 80
1200UTC 28.09.2019 48 23.7N 41.8W 965 69
0000UTC 29.09.2019 60 25.6N 41.2W 958 69
1200UTC 29.09.2019 72 27.0N 39.9W 942 83
0000UTC 30.09.2019 84 28.6N 38.4W 933 85
1200UTC 30.09.2019 96 30.2N 37.3W 929 87
0000UTC 01.10.2019 108 32.1N 36.3W 920 87
1200UTC 01.10.2019 120 34.5N 33.7W 924 89
0000UTC 02.10.2019 132 38.0N 29.8W 940 72
1200UTC 02.10.2019 144 42.4N 24.8W 955 63

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.2N 62.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2019 0 33.2N 62.8W 1006 25
0000UTC 27.09.2019 12 34.6N 61.5W 1007 24
1200UTC 27.09.2019 24 34.9N 60.0W 1010 23
0000UTC 28.09.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.8N 99.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2019 60 15.8N 100.8W 998 41
1200UTC 29.09.2019 72 17.2N 103.4W 989 49
0000UTC 30.09.2019 84 19.7N 105.0W 989 45
1200UTC 30.09.2019 96 23.3N 106.4W 1001 31
0000UTC 01.10.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.1N 141.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2019 84 12.1N 141.4W 1006 27
1200UTC 30.09.2019 96 12.9N 139.9W 1004 29
0000UTC 01.10.2019 108 13.9N 139.4W 1002 35
1200UTC 01.10.2019 120 15.0N 138.5W 998 40
0000UTC 02.10.2019 132 15.8N 137.6W 991 53
1200UTC 02.10.2019 144 16.4N 137.0W 988 53

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.9N 124.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.10.2019 132 14.4N 124.2W 1007 27
1200UTC 02.10.2019 144 13.3N 124.4W 1007 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261558

>

2019-09-26 15:59

WTNT80 EGRR 261558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 26.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 16.1N 111.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.09.2019 16.1N 111.1W WEAK
00UTC 27.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.0N 64.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.09.2019 26.0N 64.2W WEAK
00UTC 27.09.2019 27.5N 62.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 28.2N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 28.4N 59.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2019 28.4N 60.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2019 28.5N 61.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2019 28.4N 63.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2019 28.6N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 28.9N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2019 28.9N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2019 29.1N 65.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 28.9N 65.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.10.2019 28.4N 65.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 39.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.09.2019 15.1N 39.6W STRONG
00UTC 27.09.2019 17.2N 40.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 19.2N 41.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 28.09.2019 21.5N 41.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2019 23.7N 41.8W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.09.2019 25.6N 41.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.09.2019 27.0N 39.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.09.2019 28.6N 38.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.09.2019 30.2N 37.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2019 32.1N 36.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2019 34.5N 33.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 38.0N 29.8W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.10.2019 42.4N 24.8W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 33.2N 62.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.09.2019 33.2N 62.8W WEAK
00UTC 27.09.2019 34.6N 61.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 34.9N 60.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 14.8N 99.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.09.2019 15.8N 100.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 29.09.2019 17.2N 103.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.09.2019 19.7N 105.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 23.3N 106.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.10.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 12.1N 141.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.09.2019 12.1N 141.4W WEAK
12UTC 30.09.2019 12.9N 139.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2019 13.9N 139.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2019 15.0N 138.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2019 15.8N 137.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.10.2019 16.4N 137.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.9N 124.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.10.2019 14.4N 124.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 02.10.2019 13.3N 124.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 261558

>

2019-09-26 14:55

WTNT43 KNHC 261453
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

A review of microwave satellite imagery from last night suggests
that Lorenzo underwent an eyewall replacement cycle, with the
outer eyewall becoming predominant around 06Z-09Z. Around that
time, the hurricane started to rapidly intensify, with the eye
becoming much better defined in conventional satellite imagery. Raw
Data-T numbers from both subjective and objective versions of the
Dvorak Technique suggest that the maximum winds have increased to
near 115 kt, which will be the initial intensity for this advisory.
The initial wind radii have been revised based on a recently
received scatterometer overpass.

The initial motion is 295/11. Lorenzo is approaching a developing
break in the subtropical ridge caused by a series of mid-latitude
troughs to the northwest of the hurricane, and the track guidance
models are in excellent agreement that Lorenzo should recurve
through the break during the forecast period. There are no
significant changes to the guidance since the last advisory, and
there are no significant changes to the forecast track either.

Data from the SHIPS model suggest that Lorenzo will be in an area
of maximum potential intensities of 125-135 kt for the next 3-4
days. This suggests that the rapid intensification should end in
the next 6-12 h as the actual intensity approaches those speeds.
Fluctuations in strength due to eyewall replacement cycles are
expected during the 12-36 h period. The global models suggest
that Lorenzo will subsequently interact with an upper-level trough
during recurvature, which should cause a period of increased shear
and some weakening of the cyclone around 48 h. By 120 h, the
hurricane should weaken due to movement over colder water and into
strong shear in the mid-latitude westerlies.

While its exact ranking will be determined later, Lorenzo is one of
the largest and most powerful hurricanes of record for the central
tropical Atlantic, with the only comparable hurricane in recent
times near there being Gabrielle of 1989.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1500Z 15.4N 40.2W 115 KT 130 MPH
12H 27/0000Z 16.7N 41.4W 125 KT 145 MPH
24H 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.6W 125 KT 145 MPH
36H 28/0000Z 20.2N 43.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 28/1200Z 21.9N 43.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/1200Z 25.2N 43.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 30/1200Z 29.0N 41.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 01/1200Z 34.0N 37.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-26 14:54

WTNT33 KNHC 261452
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...LORENZO BECOMES A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 40.2W
ABOUT 1055 MI...1695 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 40.2 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). Lorenzo
is forecast to turn toward the northwest later today, and this
motion should continue through Friday. A turn toward the north is
expected Friday night and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible today,
and fluctuations in intensity are expected tonight through Friday
night.

Lorenzo is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb (28.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-26 14:54

WTNT23 KNHC 261452
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1500 UTC THU SEP 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 40.2W AT 26/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 949 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT.......100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
34 KT.......220NE 120SE 80SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 270SE 270SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 40.2W AT 26/1500Z
AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 39.8W

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.7N 41.4W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 40SW 100NW.
34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.6W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 120SE 100SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.2N 43.5W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 43.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 25.2N 43.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 110SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N 41.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.0N 37.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 40.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-26 10:05

WTNT43 KNHC 261003
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Special Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
600 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

Shortly after the issuance of the 0900 UTC advisory, Lorenzo's eye
quickly and drastically became more apparent in conventional
satellite imagery. The slightly ragged but clearing eye of the
hurricane is surrounded by very cold cloud tops, and it has become
clear that Lorenzo is rapidly intensifying. A 0900 UTC TAFB Dvorak
classification of 6.0/6.0 (115 kt) was used as the primary basis for
increasing the intensity of Lorenzo. Because objective fixes from
just a few hours ago were much lower, the intensity of the hurricane
has been increased, perhaps conservatively, to 110 kt. Since this is
10 kt above the previous 12-h forecast, a special advisory is
required to update the intensity forecast.

Additional strengthening is possible later today. Earlier intensity
guidance indicated that Lorenzo's intensity should level off in a
day or so, though none of the guidance correctly anticipated the
rate at which the hurricane has strengthened this morning. Now that
the hurricane has a closed eyewall, fluctuations in intensity due to
eyewall replacement cycles are also possible, though this is not
explicitly reflected in the updated forecast. By the end of the
forecast period, the updated NHC forecast is relaxed to the original
forecast and shows some gradual weakening. Further adjustments,
especially at 72 h and beyond, may be required later this morning.

No changes were made to the track forecast, which is based on the
previous regular advisory.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/1000Z 15.2N 39.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W 120 KT 140 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-26 10:05

WTNT33 KNHC 261003
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Special Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
600 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...LORENZO RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 600 AM AST...1000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.2N 39.3W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 AM AST (1000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 39.3 West. The hurricane
is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). Lorenzo
is forecast to turn toward the northwest and begin moving at a
slightly slower speed later today. A turn toward the north is then
anticipated on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have rapidly increased to near 125 mph (205
km/h) with higher gusts. Lorenzo is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is
possible today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-26 10:05

WTNT23 KNHC 261003
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1000 UTC THU SEP 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 39.3W AT 26/1000Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 90SE 80SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 280SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 39.3W AT 26/1000Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 38.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 39.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-26 08:44

WTNT43 KNHC 260842
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

Lorenzo's satellite appearance continues to steadily improve. The
cyclone has a large central dense overcast, with outflow established
in all quadrants. The hurricane has at times shown signs of a
developing eye, however, it has been mostly obscured during the last
few hours by expanding cloud tops associated with central (and
likely eyewall) convection. Although the eye is not yet apparent in
geostationary imagery, a 0618 UTC SSMIS overpass showed that Lorenzo
has developed a well-defined mid-level eye. TAFB and SAB Dvorak
classifications both support an intensity of 90 kt but objective
estimates are lower. The intensity of Lorenzo is therefore held at
85 kt as a compromise of the higher subjective and lower objective
assessments, but this could be a little conservative.

The hurricane is still moving west-northwestward, but a turn toward
the northwest is expected later today. Lorenzo has reached a break
in the subtropical ridge to the north and should now begin to gain
latitude at a faster rate. By day 3, the global models show Lorenzo
moving northward along the western periphery of the ridge and by the
end of the period it will likely turn northeastward and accelerate
ahead of an approaching deep-layer trough. While the models still
differ on the details of the forecast, like how fast Lorenzo will be
moving once it turns northward, they all show this general
evolution. The NHC forecast is mostly an update of the previous
advisory and is just west of the center of the guidance envelope.

Lorenzo has several more days during which it could strengthen. The
primary limiting factor appears to be the size of Lorenzo, which is
considerable and is forecast to increase. This will likely only slow
down Lorenzo's strengthening, not prevent it. By 72 h, Lorenzo could
experience an increase in shear, and most of the guidance responds
by forecasting very slow weakening. The official intensity forecast
is generally close to HCCA and IVCN at all lead times and is not
very different from the previous forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0900Z 15.1N 39.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-26 08:43

WTNT33 KNHC 260841
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 26 2019

...LORENZO TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND STRENGTHEN TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 39.3W
ABOUT 995 MI...1600 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 39.3 West. The hurricane
is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). Lorenzo
is forecast to turn toward the northwest and begin moving at a
slightly slower speed later today. A turn toward the north is then
anticipated on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast and Lorenzo is forecast to
become a major hurricane later today or early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-26 08:42

WTNT23 KNHC 260840
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0900 UTC THU SEP 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 39.3W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 90SE 80SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 240SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 39.3W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 38.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.0N 40.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 20SW 35NW.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.2N 43.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 24.6N 43.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 28.0N 42.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 33.0N 38.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 39.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-26 04:00

WTNT82 EGRR 260358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 26.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 32.5N 64.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2019 0 32.5N 64.9W 1004 26
1200UTC 26.09.2019 12 33.1N 63.0W 1006 25
0000UTC 27.09.2019 24 34.0N 62.2W 1007 23
1200UTC 27.09.2019 36 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 112.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2019 0 14.5N 112.1W 1009 23
1200UTC 26.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N 64.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2019 0 24.1N 64.2W 1008 29
1200UTC 26.09.2019 12 26.2N 63.8W 1007 26
0000UTC 27.09.2019 24 27.7N 62.4W 1006 29
1200UTC 27.09.2019 36 28.0N 60.9W 1005 34
0000UTC 28.09.2019 48 28.3N 60.0W 1005 38
1200UTC 28.09.2019 60 28.6N 60.9W 1006 30
0000UTC 29.09.2019 72 28.6N 62.6W 1005 29
1200UTC 29.09.2019 84 28.1N 64.3W 1004 27
0000UTC 30.09.2019 96 28.1N 65.2W 1002 34
1200UTC 30.09.2019 108 28.3N 65.6W 1001 32
0000UTC 01.10.2019 120 28.6N 65.6W 1000 32
1200UTC 01.10.2019 132 28.6N 65.9W 1002 28
0000UTC 02.10.2019 144 28.2N 66.3W 1004 28

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 37.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2019 0 14.4N 37.8W 979 63
1200UTC 26.09.2019 12 15.2N 39.6W 977 56
0000UTC 27.09.2019 24 17.0N 40.4W 973 63
1200UTC 27.09.2019 36 19.2N 40.8W 964 72
0000UTC 28.09.2019 48 21.5N 41.0W 952 84
1200UTC 28.09.2019 60 23.4N 41.1W 953 79
0000UTC 29.09.2019 72 25.3N 40.5W 946 79
1200UTC 29.09.2019 84 27.2N 39.6W 932 84
0000UTC 30.09.2019 96 28.9N 38.5W 927 84
1200UTC 30.09.2019 108 30.7N 37.5W 925 81
0000UTC 01.10.2019 120 32.8N 35.6W 921 92
1200UTC 01.10.2019 132 36.0N 33.0W 928 78
0000UTC 02.10.2019 144 40.3N 28.6W 942 66

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 11.8N 142.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2019 84 11.8N 142.8W 1007 21
0000UTC 30.09.2019 96 12.0N 142.2W 1005 24
1200UTC 30.09.2019 108 12.5N 141.5W 1004 30
0000UTC 01.10.2019 120 13.5N 140.9W 1000 37
1200UTC 01.10.2019 132 14.2N 140.6W 995 40
0000UTC 02.10.2019 144 15.0N 140.0W 985 55

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 13.7N 127.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2019 120 13.7N 127.5W 1008 29
1200UTC 01.10.2019 132 13.6N 126.4W 1007 30
0000UTC 02.10.2019 144 13.0N 125.2W 1005 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.2N 160.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2019 132 12.2N 160.0W 1006 21
0000UTC 02.10.2019 144 12.2N 159.8W 1004 23


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 260358

>

2019-09-26 03:59

WTNT80 EGRR 260358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 26.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 32.5N 64.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.09.2019 32.5N 64.9W WEAK
12UTC 26.09.2019 33.1N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 34.0N 62.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93E ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 112.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.09.2019 14.5N 112.1W WEAK
12UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 24.1N 64.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.09.2019 24.1N 64.2W WEAK
12UTC 26.09.2019 26.2N 63.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 27.7N 62.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 28.0N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 28.3N 60.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2019 28.6N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2019 28.6N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2019 28.1N 64.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2019 28.1N 65.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 28.3N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2019 28.6N 65.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2019 28.6N 65.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 28.2N 66.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 37.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.09.2019 14.4N 37.8W STRONG
12UTC 26.09.2019 15.2N 39.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 17.0N 40.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 19.2N 40.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.09.2019 21.5N 41.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2019 23.4N 41.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2019 25.3N 40.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.09.2019 27.2N 39.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 30.09.2019 28.9N 38.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.09.2019 30.7N 37.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2019 32.8N 35.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2019 36.0N 33.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2019 40.3N 28.6W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 11.8N 142.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2019 11.8N 142.8W WEAK
00UTC 30.09.2019 12.0N 142.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 12.5N 141.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2019 13.5N 140.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 01.10.2019 14.2N 140.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 02.10.2019 15.0N 140.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 13.7N 127.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2019 13.7N 127.5W WEAK
12UTC 01.10.2019 13.6N 126.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.10.2019 13.0N 125.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 12.2N 160.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.10.2019 12.2N 160.0W WEAK
00UTC 02.10.2019 12.2N 159.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 260358

>

2019-09-26 02:38

WTNT43 KNHC 260235
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

A small eye has been intermittently appearing in infrared satellite
imagery over the past few hours, and a recent WINDSAT microwave
overpass showed that the inner-core of Lorenzo is trying to
consolidate. There is still some dry air wrapping in toward the
center of circulation as seen in an SSMIS overpass at 2020 UTC. This
could be the reason why the hurricane has not been able to develop a
well-defined eye as of yet. An ASCAT-B scatterometer pass this
evening showed a still expanding wind field associated with Lorenzo,
and the 50-kt winds now extend up to 90 n mi from the center in the
northern semicircle. A blend of the subjective intensity estimates
from TAFB and SAB support the initial intensity of 85 kt for this
advisory.

Based on the improving inner-core structure, large central dense
overcast, and an expanding cirrus shield around the hurricane, it is
believed that the dry air that has been entrained near the center
will mix out soon. This should allow for the eyewall to completely
develop and Lorenzo should reach major hurricane intensity within
the next 24 hours. Lorenzo will continue over warm waters and in a
light shear environment during the next couple of days, which should
allow for some additional strengthening. By 72 hours, increasing
shear due to west to southwest winds aloft ahead of an approaching
mid-latitude trough should begin to weaken the hurricane. The
official intensity forecast is very near the previous one, and is on
the high end of the guidance through 72 hours.

Lorenzo is moving west-northwest at 13 kt to the south of a
mid-level ridge. The model guidance is in very good agreement on a
break developing in the ridge between 45W-50W in the next couple of
days, which should result in a turn to the northwest. From day 3-5,
the cyclone is expected to turn north then northeast around the
periphery of the mid-level ridge to its east. The official forecast
was nudged just a little to the right of the previous one starting
at 36 h and is on the left side of tightly clustered consensus
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 26/0300Z 14.7N 38.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 26/1200Z 15.2N 39.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 27/0000Z 16.8N 41.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 28/0000Z 20.4N 43.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 29/0000Z 23.8N 43.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 30/0000Z 27.5N 42.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 01/0000Z 31.9N 39.1W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-26 02:37

WTNT33 KNHC 260235
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...LORENZO STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.7N 38.1W
ABOUT 915 MI...1470 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 14.7 North, longitude 38.1 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn to
the northwest is forecast to occur on Thursday, followed by a turn
to the north by Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Lorenzo is forecast to become a major hurricane on
Thursday, with some additional strengthening possible through
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-26 02:36

WTNT23 KNHC 260234
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0300 UTC THU SEP 26 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 38.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 40SE 20SW 80NW.
34 KT.......180NE 90SE 80SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 280SE 210SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 38.1W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 37.6W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.2N 39.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 100SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.8N 41.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 120SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.5N 42.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 20.4N 43.3W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 23.8N 43.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 27.5N 42.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.9N 39.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.7N 38.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-25 20:44

WTNT43 KNHC 252041
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lorenzo continues to
become better organized, with the central dense overcast getting
larger while a large complex of outer bands continues in the
southeastern semicircle. In addition, a AMSR-2 overpass near 1530
UTC suggested there is at least a partial eyewall or convective ring
near the center. The initial intensity is increased to 80 kt in
best agreement with the CIMSS satellite consensus intensity
estimate. The hurricane still shows good cirrus outflow in all
directions, and it still appears some dry air is entraining into the
system in the northwestern quadrant.

The initial motion is now 285/16. There is no change to the track
forecast philosophy from the previous advisory. The subtropical
ridge to the north and northeast of Lorenzo should steer the
hurricane west-northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a
turn toward the northwest as a break develops in the ridge between
45W-50W. Lorenzo is subsequently forecast to turn northward into
the break by 96 h and recurve into the westerlies around 120 h.
Since the last advisory, the track guidance has shifted a little to
the right after 36 h. The new forecast track is similar to the
previous track, but after 36 h it now lies a little to the left of
the center of the guidance envelope.

Lorenzo should remain over warm water and in a light shear
environment during the next three days, with the only negative
factor for intensification being episodic intrusions of dry air.
The intensity guidance forecasts continued steady strengthening for
the next 36 h or so, but the the chances of rapid intensification
in the various statistical indices have gone down since the previous
advisory. The new intensity forecast will call for 36 more hours
of intensification, and it continues to lie near the upper edge of
the intensity guidance. The intensity forecast follows the general
trend of the guidance in showing little change in strength between
36-96 h, although fluctuations in intensity are likely due to
eyewall replacement cycles during this time. After that time,
Lorenzo is likely to encounter southwesterly shear, and thus some
weakening is forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 14.5N 36.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 15.0N 38.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 16.1N 40.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 23.0N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 26.5N 43.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 31.0N 40.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-25 20:43

WTNT33 KNHC 252040
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...LORENZO STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE AS IT MOVES
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE ON THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.5N 36.9W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 36.9 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward
the northwest is expected by Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major
hurricane on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-25 20:41

WTNT23 KNHC 252039
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
2100 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 36.9W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 10SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 130SE 30SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 36.9W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 36.3W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 15.0N 38.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 60SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.1N 40.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.7N 41.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 19.5N 43.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 23.0N 44.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 26.5N 43.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 31.0N 40.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 36.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-25 15:59

WTNT82 EGRR 251557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 25.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVES ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 111.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2019 0 13.3N 111.9W 1009 19
0000UTC 26.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 67.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2019 0 31.9N 67.4W 1001 27
0000UTC 26.09.2019 12 32.2N 65.3W 1004 27
1200UTC 26.09.2019 24 32.7N 63.5W 1006 24
0000UTC 27.09.2019 36 33.6N 62.3W 1008 22
1200UTC 27.09.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 65.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2019 0 21.6N 65.0W 1008 30
0000UTC 26.09.2019 12 23.9N 64.0W 1008 28
1200UTC 26.09.2019 24 26.2N 63.1W 1008 26
0000UTC 27.09.2019 36 27.9N 61.2W 1009 24
1200UTC 27.09.2019 48 28.5N 59.5W 1008 30
0000UTC 28.09.2019 60 29.5N 58.4W 1009 27
1200UTC 28.09.2019 72 30.1N 59.5W 1010 22
0000UTC 29.09.2019 84 29.7N 61.6W 1010 23
1200UTC 29.09.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 141.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2019 0 19.1N 141.8W 1011 23
0000UTC 26.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 34.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2019 0 13.9N 34.5W 988 60
0000UTC 26.09.2019 12 14.3N 37.5W 983 60
1200UTC 26.09.2019 24 15.1N 39.1W 978 55
0000UTC 27.09.2019 36 16.7N 40.0W 975 57
1200UTC 27.09.2019 48 18.9N 40.8W 962 69
0000UTC 28.09.2019 60 21.2N 41.5W 955 74
1200UTC 28.09.2019 72 22.8N 41.9W 955 74
0000UTC 29.09.2019 84 24.4N 41.5W 948 77
1200UTC 29.09.2019 96 26.2N 40.5W 938 86
0000UTC 30.09.2019 108 28.0N 39.2W 939 80
1200UTC 30.09.2019 120 29.9N 37.9W 935 79
0000UTC 01.10.2019 132 32.3N 36.2W 922 90
1200UTC 01.10.2019 144 35.8N 33.3W 924 80

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.9N 141.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2019 96 11.9N 141.6W 1007 24
0000UTC 30.09.2019 108 12.3N 140.4W 1005 29
1200UTC 30.09.2019 120 13.0N 139.6W 1003 32
0000UTC 01.10.2019 132 14.1N 138.8W 1000 37
1200UTC 01.10.2019 144 14.8N 138.0W 993 44

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.0N 126.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2019 132 15.0N 126.6W 1008 27
1200UTC 01.10.2019 144 14.8N 125.6W 1007 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251557

>

2019-09-25 15:58

WTNT80 EGRR 251557

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 25.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION INVES ANALYSED POSITION : 13.3N 111.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP932019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.09.2019 13.3N 111.9W WEAK
00UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 31.9N 67.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.09.2019 31.9N 67.4W WEAK
00UTC 26.09.2019 32.2N 65.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 32.7N 63.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 33.6N 62.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 21.6N 65.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.09.2019 21.6N 65.0W WEAK
00UTC 26.09.2019 23.9N 64.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 26.2N 63.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 27.9N 61.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 28.5N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 29.5N 58.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2019 30.1N 59.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2019 29.7N 61.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 141.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.09.2019 19.1N 141.8W WEAK
00UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 34.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.09.2019 13.9N 34.5W MODERATE
00UTC 26.09.2019 14.3N 37.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2019 15.1N 39.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2019 16.7N 40.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 18.9N 40.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 28.09.2019 21.2N 41.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2019 22.8N 41.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2019 24.4N 41.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.09.2019 26.2N 40.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.09.2019 28.0N 39.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 29.9N 37.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2019 32.3N 36.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.10.2019 35.8N 33.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 11.9N 141.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2019 11.9N 141.6W WEAK
00UTC 30.09.2019 12.3N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 13.0N 139.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2019 14.1N 138.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 01.10.2019 14.8N 138.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.0N 126.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2019 15.0N 126.6W WEAK
12UTC 01.10.2019 14.8N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 251557

>

2019-09-25 14:38

WTNT43 KNHC 251436
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Conventional satellite imagery indicates that Lorenzo continues to
become better organized, with a small central convective feature
surrounded by a large complex of outer bands in all quadrants
except the northwest, where some dry air may be entraining.
Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMMS
satellite consensus technique have increased to near 75 kt, and that
will be the initial intensity for this advisory. The hurricane
currently has good cirrus outflow in all directions.

The initial motion is 285/15. The subtropical ridge to the north
and northeast of Lorenzo should steer the hurricane west-
northwestward for the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the
northwest as a break develops in the ridge between 45W-50W. Lorenzo
is subsequently forecast to turn northward into the break by 96 h
and recurve into the westerlies around 120 h. While the guidance
agrees with this scenario, there is some spread on the longitude of
the recurvature between the easternmost GFS model and the
westernmost ECMWF model. The new forecast lies between these models
in best overall agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus
guidance.

Lorenzo should remain over warm water and in a light shear
environment during the next three days, with the only negative
factor for intensification being episodic intrusions of dry air.
The intensity guidance forecasts continued steady strengthening,
with rapid strengthening possible during the first 24-36 h. The
new intensity forecast is increased from the previous forecast, and
for the first 36-48 h it lies near the upper edge of the intensity
guidance. The intensity forecast shows little change in strength
between 36-72 h, although some fluctuations in intensity are likely
due to eyewall replacement cycles during this time. After 72 h,
Lorenzo is likely to encounter some southwesterly shear, and thus
some weakening is forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 14.1N 35.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 14.4N 37.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 15.3N 39.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 16.7N 40.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 18.4N 42.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 29/1200Z 25.0N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 30/1200Z 29.0N 42.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-25 14:37

WTNT33 KNHC 251435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...LORENZO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 35.1W
ABOUT 715 MI...1155 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 35.1 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward
the northwest is expected late Thursday or Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major
hurricane by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-25 14:37

WTNT23 KNHC 251435
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 35.1W AT 25/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 983 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 130SE 30SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 35.1W AT 25/1500Z
AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 34.5W

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.4N 37.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 50SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.3N 39.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.7N 40.8W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.4N 42.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 21.9N 44.2W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 25.0N 44.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1200Z 29.0N 42.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.1N 35.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-25 08:59

WTNT43 KNHC 250857
TCDAT3

Hurricane Lorenzo Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

Deep convection has continued to increase in coverage and intensity
near the center of Lorenzo during the past several hours. There have
been no good microwave passes over the cyclone since yesterday,
however, a partial SSMIS pass showed hints that a mid-level eye is
forming. The initial intensity has been increased to 70 kt based on
a blend of the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB,
and objective estimates from the UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON. Lorenzo is
the 5th hurricane of the Atlantic hurricane season.

The SHIPS and DTOPS rapid intensification probability models both
show that there is a greater than 50 percent chance that Lorenzo
will strengthen by 25 kt or more during the next 24 hours. The large
size of the cyclone appears to be the only obvious inhibiting factor
to rapid intensification since the environment is otherwise quite
favorable for continued strengthening. The NHC forecast now shows
Lorenzo becoming a major hurricane in 36 hours, faster than
previously anticipated. By 72 h and beyond, most of the guidance
keeps Lorenzo in a nearly steady state. In reality, most strong
hurricanes have some short-term fluctuations in intensity, but such
fluctuations are nearly impossible to forecast this far out in time.
Regardless of its exact intensity, confidence is high that Lorenzo
will be a large and powerful hurricane over the eastern and central
Atlantic through the rest of this week.

No changes of significance were made to the track forecast. Lorenzo
is still forecast to move west-northwestward for the next day or so,
before turning northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical
ridge. A turn toward the north is anticipated by the end of the
forecast period. The models are still in fairly good agreement on
the track of the hurricane, and the NHC forecast is between the
consensus aids HCCA and TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0900Z 13.6N 33.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 25/1800Z 14.0N 36.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/0600Z 14.7N 38.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 26/1800Z 15.9N 40.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 27/0600Z 17.5N 41.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 28/0600Z 21.1N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
96H 29/0600Z 24.0N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 30/0600Z 27.4N 43.5W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

>

2019-09-25 08:58

WTNT33 KNHC 250856
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lorenzo Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 25 2019

...LORENZO BECOMES THE FIFTH ATLANTIC HURRICANE OF THE SEASON...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.6N 33.9W
ABOUT 640 MI...1030 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lorenzo was
located near latitude 13.6 North, longitude 33.9 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn toward
the northwest is expected by Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the
next couple of days, and Lorenzo is forecast to become a major
hurricane by Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles
(335 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky/Ramos

>

2019-09-25 08:58

WTNT23 KNHC 250855
TCMAT3

HURRICANE LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0900 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 33.9W AT 25/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 30SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 33.9W AT 25/0900Z
AT 25/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 33.2W

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 14.0N 36.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 50SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.7N 38.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.9N 40.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.5N 41.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 21.1N 44.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 100SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 24.0N 45.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 27.4N 43.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.6N 33.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY/RAMOS

>

2019-09-25 03:59

WTNT82 EGRR 250358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 25.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 31.3N 68.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2019 0 31.3N 68.7W 996 32
1200UTC 25.09.2019 12 32.0N 67.3W 1002 28
0000UTC 26.09.2019 24 32.4N 65.2W 1004 27
1200UTC 26.09.2019 36 33.0N 63.4W 1006 25
0000UTC 27.09.2019 48 33.9N 61.9W 1008 22
1200UTC 27.09.2019 60 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 65.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2019 0 18.6N 65.0W 1008 29
1200UTC 25.09.2019 12 21.3N 64.9W 1008 28
0000UTC 26.09.2019 24 23.5N 63.7W 1008 26
1200UTC 26.09.2019 36 25.5N 63.0W 1008 25
0000UTC 27.09.2019 48 27.2N 62.1W 1008 24
1200UTC 27.09.2019 60 27.8N 61.0W 1007 28
0000UTC 28.09.2019 72 28.3N 60.9W 1005 37
1200UTC 28.09.2019 84 28.8N 62.4W 1006 30
0000UTC 29.09.2019 96 28.9N 64.7W 1007 29
1200UTC 29.09.2019 108 29.1N 67.0W 1006 30
0000UTC 30.09.2019 120 28.9N 68.4W 1004 35
1200UTC 30.09.2019 132 28.6N 70.1W 1004 34
0000UTC 01.10.2019 144 28.3N 71.9W 1004 32

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 140.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2019 0 18.6N 140.0W 1009 26
1200UTC 25.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 31.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 25.09.2019 0 13.1N 31.7W 999 45
1200UTC 25.09.2019 12 13.6N 34.4W 992 52
0000UTC 26.09.2019 24 14.3N 36.8W 986 62
1200UTC 26.09.2019 36 15.3N 38.6W 977 59
0000UTC 27.09.2019 48 17.1N 39.6W 968 67
1200UTC 27.09.2019 60 19.2N 40.7W 957 74
0000UTC 28.09.2019 72 21.0N 42.1W 962 68
1200UTC 28.09.2019 84 22.0N 42.7W 959 69
0000UTC 29.09.2019 96 23.5N 42.4W 950 81
1200UTC 29.09.2019 108 25.3N 42.1W 946 79
0000UTC 30.09.2019 120 26.8N 41.3W 945 74
1200UTC 30.09.2019 132 28.6N 40.4W 927 86
0000UTC 01.10.2019 144 30.6N 39.4W 925 86

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 17.1N 113.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 26.09.2019 36 17.1N 113.0W 1008 26
0000UTC 27.09.2019 48 18.9N 112.0W 1006 29
1200UTC 27.09.2019 60 18.6N 110.4W 1006 27
0000UTC 28.09.2019 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.0N 140.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2019 108 11.7N 140.0W 1007 26
0000UTC 30.09.2019 120 12.5N 138.5W 1005 32
1200UTC 30.09.2019 132 13.3N 137.1W 1004 34
0000UTC 01.10.2019 144 14.7N 135.0W 1003 35

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.0N 156.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2019 120 14.0N 156.4W 1007 23
1200UTC 30.09.2019 132 13.5N 156.4W 1006 21
0000UTC 01.10.2019 144 13.2N 155.6W 1005 22

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 15.0N 127.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 01.10.2019 144 15.0N 127.5W 1008 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250357

>

2019-09-25 03:59

WTNT80 EGRR 250357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 25.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 31.3N 68.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.09.2019 31.3N 68.7W MODERATE
12UTC 25.09.2019 32.0N 67.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2019 32.4N 65.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 33.0N 63.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 33.9N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 65.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.09.2019 18.6N 65.0W WEAK
12UTC 25.09.2019 21.3N 64.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 23.5N 63.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 25.5N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 27.2N 62.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 27.8N 61.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 28.3N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2019 28.8N 62.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2019 28.9N 64.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2019 29.1N 67.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2019 28.9N 68.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 28.6N 70.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2019 28.3N 71.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 140.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.09.2019 18.6N 140.0W WEAK
12UTC 25.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 13.1N 31.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 25.09.2019 13.1N 31.7W MODERATE
12UTC 25.09.2019 13.6N 34.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2019 14.3N 36.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2019 15.3N 38.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2019 17.1N 39.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.09.2019 19.2N 40.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 28.09.2019 21.0N 42.1W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2019 22.0N 42.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2019 23.5N 42.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.09.2019 25.3N 42.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2019 26.8N 41.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 28.6N 40.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 01.10.2019 30.6N 39.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 17.1N 113.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 26.09.2019 17.1N 113.0W WEAK
00UTC 27.09.2019 18.9N 112.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 18.6N 110.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 12.0N 140.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2019 11.7N 140.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.09.2019 12.5N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 13.3N 137.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2019 14.7N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.0N 156.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.09.2019 14.0N 156.4W WEAK
12UTC 30.09.2019 13.5N 156.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 01.10.2019 13.2N 155.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 15.0N 127.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2019 15.0N 127.5W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 250357

>

2019-09-25 02:38

WTNT43 KNHC 250236
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Over the past several hours, deep convection has increased in
coverage and intensity near Lorenzo's center, with cloud tops now as
cold as -85 degrees Celsius. Some modest northwesterly shear
impacted the cyclone starting early today and lasted through this
evening, but now Lorenzo seems to be overcoming the shear. The
initial intensity has been increased to 60 kt and this is a blend of
the latest subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Recent
scatterometer passes show that the wind radii have continued to
expand, with tropical storm force winds now reaching up to 180 n mi
from the center.

Lorenzo is moving west-northwestward at 14 kt to the south of a
mid-level ridge. A break in the ridge is forecast to develop between
40-50W in a few days, which should cause the cyclone to turn to the
northwest. By late in the forecast period, Lorenzo will turn to the
north as it rounds the western periphery of the ridge. This forecast
track scenario is in very good agreement with the numerical models,
and little change was made from the previous official forecast.

The shear that has been occurring over Lorenzo is expected to
decrease through Wednesday, and based on the current convective
trend, strengthening appears likely over the next couple of days.
Dynamical and statistical models are in good agreement on bringing
Lorenzo to hurricane intensity by Wednesday morning, and then
continuing some gradual strengthening through 72 hours. After that
time, the dynamical model intensity forecasts diverge from the
statistical model forecasts. SHIPS and LGEM suggest that Lorenzo
will reach its peak intensity in about 3 or 4 days, and weakening is
possible by day 5. The dynamical models disagree with this scenario,
and the consensus of those models makes Lorenzo a major hurricane in
about 72 hours, with additional strengthening possible through the
end of the forecast period. The official forecast is more in line
with the dynamical guidance, although it is not as high as some of
those solutions late in the period. Due to the divergence in model
intensity forecasts beyond 72 hours, the confidence in the official
forecast at that time is not high.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/0300Z 13.2N 32.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 25/1200Z 13.6N 34.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 26/0000Z 14.2N 37.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 26/1200Z 15.1N 39.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 27/0000Z 16.4N 40.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 28/0000Z 19.9N 43.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 29/0000Z 23.0N 45.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 30/0000Z 26.0N 45.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-25 02:36

WTNT33 KNHC 250234
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...LORENZO RESUMES INTENSIFYING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 32.4W
ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 13.2 North, longitude 32.4 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
motion is expected to continue through Thursday. A turn to
the northwest is expected Thursday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected over the next few days and
Lorenzo should become a hurricane tonight or Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-25 02:36

WTNT23 KNHC 250234
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 32.4W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 20SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 32.4W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 31.7W

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 13.6N 34.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 20SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.2N 37.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.1N 39.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.4N 40.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 100SW 170NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 19.9N 43.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 180SE 100SW 170NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 23.0N 45.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 26.0N 45.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 32.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-24 20:50

WTNT43 KNHC 242048
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Based on recent microwave imagery and visible satellite loops, it
appears that there's been just enough westerly shear over Lorenzo
to disrupt the inner core and keep the storm from strengthening
through the day. The CDO is slightly offset from the low-level
center, and prominent convective banding is mostly within the
southeastern semicircle. Subjective intensity estimates remain
T3.5/55 kt from TAFB and SAB, and objective numbers have come up
slightly to around 60 kt. However, since the morning scatterometer
data was running about 10 kt lower than the satellite estimates,
and the overall structure has not changed appreciably, the initial
intensity will remain 55 kt.

A mid-level high centered west of Madeira and the Canary Islands
continues to drive Lorenzo quickly westward, or 285/15 kt. There
has been no change to the track forecast thinking. A break in the
ridge over the central Atlantic is expected to cause Lorenzo to
begin recurving in about 48 hours, with the system ultimately
moving northward by the end of the foreast period. The updated NHC
forecast has only been nudged westward, but this is mainly due to
the slightly faster initial forward motion. Otherwise, the spread
in the guidance is still bounded by the GFS on the right and the
ECMWF on the left, which is mirrored by those models' respective
ensemble members. The official forecast hedges toward the western
side of the guidance, roughly between the HCCA model and the other
consensus aids.

Global model guidance suggests that the westerly shear over Lorenzo
should abate during the next 24 hours, allowing another
intensification phase to begin. Whether or not rapid
intensification occurs is difficult to know at this point until it
becomes clearer if the cyclone can develop a well-defined inner
core. The intensity guidance has decreased further on this cycle,
but this is largely due to the hiatus in the strengthening trend
during the day. There's still plenty of time for more
strengthening to occur, so out of an abundance of caution, I did
not lower the forecast peak intensities that have been shown in the
previous few advisories. As such, the official forecast lies above
nearly all the guidance during the first 2-3 days, and then is
close to the HWRF and HCCA on days 4 and 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/2100Z 12.8N 31.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0600Z 13.2N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/1800Z 13.8N 35.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/0600Z 14.5N 38.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 26/1800Z 15.6N 40.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 27/1800Z 18.8N 42.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1800Z 21.9N 45.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 29/1800Z 24.9N 45.3W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-24 20:50

WTNT33 KNHC 242048
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...LORENZO'S INTENSITY HOLDING STEADY FOR THE MOMENT...
...STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TONIGHT OR ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 31.0W
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 31.0 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this
heading is expected to continue through Thursday. A slower motion
toward the northwest is forecast Thursday night and Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and
Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane tonight or on Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-24 20:50

WTNT23 KNHC 242048
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 31.0W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 31.0W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 30.3W

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 13.2N 33.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.8N 35.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 120SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.5N 38.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...190NE 120SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.6N 40.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 120SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.8N 42.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 21.9N 45.1W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 24.9N 45.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 31.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-24 15:57

WTNT82 EGRR 241556

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 24.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.7N 69.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2019 0 30.7N 69.2W 988 48
0000UTC 25.09.2019 12 31.1N 68.9W 992 40
1200UTC 25.09.2019 24 31.7N 67.2W 995 39
0000UTC 26.09.2019 36 32.0N 65.2W 999 29
1200UTC 26.09.2019 48 32.5N 63.8W 1003 24
0000UTC 27.09.2019 60 32.8N 62.9W 1006 23
1200UTC 27.09.2019 72 32.3N 62.5W 1009 27
0000UTC 28.09.2019 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 65.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2019 0 17.8N 65.8W 1009 25
0000UTC 25.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 138.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2019 0 17.5N 138.7W 1005 31
0000UTC 25.09.2019 12 18.7N 140.4W 1008 28
1200UTC 25.09.2019 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 28.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 24.09.2019 0 12.3N 28.7W 1002 46
0000UTC 25.09.2019 12 13.1N 31.9W 999 48
1200UTC 25.09.2019 24 13.6N 34.5W 994 46
0000UTC 26.09.2019 36 14.4N 37.0W 987 58
1200UTC 26.09.2019 48 15.3N 39.2W 977 58
0000UTC 27.09.2019 60 16.9N 40.6W 970 64
1200UTC 27.09.2019 72 18.6N 42.0W 955 72
0000UTC 28.09.2019 84 20.0N 43.4W 956 72
1200UTC 28.09.2019 96 21.1N 44.5W 952 79
0000UTC 29.09.2019 108 22.3N 44.8W 942 84
1200UTC 29.09.2019 120 23.6N 45.2W 939 85
0000UTC 30.09.2019 132 24.9N 45.5W 927 89
1200UTC 30.09.2019 144 26.0N 45.9W 914 91

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.1N 112.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2019 36 15.1N 112.8W 1007 25
1200UTC 26.09.2019 48 17.6N 112.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 27.09.2019 60 19.0N 111.1W 1008 26
1200UTC 27.09.2019 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 24.2N 63.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.09.2019 36 24.2N 63.6W 1008 26
1200UTC 26.09.2019 48 26.2N 62.5W 1008 26
0000UTC 27.09.2019 60 27.9N 60.8W 1008 26
1200UTC 27.09.2019 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.5N 140.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.09.2019 108 13.0N 140.4W 1006 23
1200UTC 29.09.2019 120 12.9N 139.0W 1005 28
0000UTC 30.09.2019 132 13.1N 137.3W 1002 34
1200UTC 30.09.2019 144 14.3N 135.7W 1000 38


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 241555

>

2019-09-24 15:56

WTNT80 EGRR 241555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 24.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 30.7N 69.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.09.2019 30.7N 69.2W MODERATE
00UTC 25.09.2019 31.1N 68.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 31.7N 67.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 32.0N 65.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2019 32.5N 63.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2019 32.8N 62.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 32.3N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 65.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.09.2019 17.8N 65.8W WEAK
00UTC 25.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 138.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.09.2019 17.5N 138.7W WEAK
00UTC 25.09.2019 18.7N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 12.3N 28.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 24.09.2019 12.3N 28.7W WEAK
00UTC 25.09.2019 13.1N 31.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 13.6N 34.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2019 14.4N 37.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2019 15.3N 39.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2019 16.9N 40.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.09.2019 18.6N 42.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 28.09.2019 20.0N 43.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2019 21.1N 44.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.09.2019 22.3N 44.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.09.2019 23.6N 45.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2019 24.9N 45.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 30.09.2019 26.0N 45.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 15.1N 112.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.09.2019 15.1N 112.8W WEAK
12UTC 26.09.2019 17.6N 112.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 19.0N 111.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 24.2N 63.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.09.2019 24.2N 63.6W WEAK
12UTC 26.09.2019 26.2N 62.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 27.9N 60.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 13.5N 140.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 29.09.2019 13.0N 140.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.09.2019 12.9N 139.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2019 13.1N 137.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.09.2019 14.3N 135.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 241555

>

2019-09-24 14:38

WTNT43 KNHC 241436
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Lorenzo's structure has not changed much during the morning. A
small central dense overcast continues over the center with
multiple curved bands within the circulation. A recent ASCAT pass
showed winds just over 45 kt to the north of the center, but given
sampling considerations, the initial intensity remains 55 kt, which
matches Dvorak classifications provided by TAFB and SAB.

Despite the brief interruption in the strengthening trend,
sufficiently warm waters, low shear, and an ambient moist air mass
should foster intensification during the next several days.
Because Lorenzo has not strengthened further since the previous
advisory, the persistence factor has caused the Rapid
Intensification (RI) Index (a 25-kt increase in 24 hours) to drop
from 53 percent to 23 percent. In addition, the overall guidance
envelope is showing slightly lower peak intensities in 3-4 days.
The NHC intensity forecast remains near the upper edge of the
guidance for much of the forecast period, lying closest to the HWRF
and the Florida State Superensemble. RI is still a possibility, but
as of yet we have not observed a low-level cyan ring in 37-GHz
microwave imagery, which is usually a harbinger of an RI episode.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward, or 285/14 kt.
Lorenzo is located to the south of a mid-level ridge which extends
from Morocco and Madeira Island westward to 40W. Ridging is
relatively non-existent west of 40W due to a mid-/upper-level low
over the central Atlantic and Tropical Storm Jerry over the western
Atlantic. With this pattern in place, Lorenzo is expected begin
recurving around the ridge axis over the central Atlantic on days
3-5. During that period, the track guidance envelope is bracketed
by the easternmost GFS and westernmost ECMWF models, which are
about 350 nm apart on day 5. This spread isn't too significant,
and the updated NHC track forecast is only shifted slightly
eastward from the previous one, very close to the two corrected
consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 12.4N 29.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 12.9N 31.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 13.6N 34.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 14.2N 36.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 15.0N 38.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 18.0N 41.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/1200Z 21.1N 44.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 29/1200Z 23.9N 45.3W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-24 14:37

WTNT33 KNHC 241435
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...LORENZO MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 29.3W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 12.4 North, longitude 29.3 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this
general motion is expected to continue through early Thursday. A
northwestward motion should begin on Thursday and continue into
Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and
Lorenzo is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday, and a major
hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-24 14:37

WTNT23 KNHC 241435
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 29.3W AT 24/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 30SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 60SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 29.3W AT 24/1500Z
AT 24/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 28.6W

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.9N 31.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 30SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 13.6N 34.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 60SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.2N 36.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 15.0N 38.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 130SE 70SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.0N 41.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 160SE 90SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 21.1N 44.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1200Z 23.9N 45.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 29.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-24 08:57

WTNT43 KNHC 240855
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

Satellite images indicate that the cloud pattern associated with
Lorenzo continues to become better organized, with many curved
bands and a newly formed central dense overcast. In fact, an
overnight AMSR2 microwave pass showed that Lorenzo already had a
very small central core. The initial wind speed is raised to 55 kt,
in accordance with the latest TAFB classification.

Conditions seem to be ripe for further intensification given that
the storm is over fairly warm waters, with humid mid-level air, and
weak/moderate shear. The SHIPS Rapid Intensification index is
giving a 53 percent chance of Lorenzo intensifying 25 kt during the
next 24 hours, which seems very reasonable since it now has a tight
inner core, and after noting the storm just strengthened 25 kt
during the previous 24 hours. Thus the intensity forecast is raised
from the last one, showing the initial period of very quick
strengthening, and is at the upper edge of the guidance. It is
worth noting that all of the global models show Lorenzo becoming a
fairly large and powerful hurricane within the next 5 days, and the
new wind radii forecast reflects this likelihood.

The storm is moving west-northwestward at about 14 kt. This general
course is expected for the next couple of days while Lorenzo moves
beneath the eastern Atlantic subtropical ridge. A break in the
ridge should occur in a few days over the central Atlantic, causing
the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward and north-northwestward
over the weekend. The new forecast is shifted slightly northward
in the short term, but is close to the previous NHC prediction
thereafter, closest to the corrected-consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0900Z 12.0N 28.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 24/1800Z 12.6N 30.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 25/0600Z 13.3N 32.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 25/1800Z 13.9N 35.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 26/0600Z 14.4N 38.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 27/0600Z 17.0N 41.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 28/0600Z 20.0N 44.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
120H 29/0600Z 23.0N 46.0W 105 KT 120 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-24 08:56

WTNT33 KNHC 240853
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 24 2019

...LORENZO FORECAST TO BECOME A LARGE AND POWERFUL HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.0N 28.0W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 12.0 North, longitude 28.0 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). This
general motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected for
the next couple of days, followed by a turn the northwest on
Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Lorenzo is forecast to become a hurricane later
today and could become a major hurricane on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-24 08:55

WTNT23 KNHC 240853
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 28.0W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT.......100NE 60SE 20SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 45SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.0N 28.0W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 27.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 12.6N 30.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 90SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 13.3N 32.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 50SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.9N 35.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 60SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.4N 38.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.0N 41.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 160SE 100SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 20.0N 44.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 23.0N 46.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.0N 28.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-24 03:57

WTNT82 EGRR 240356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 24.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 28.9N 68.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2019 0 28.9N 68.4W 993 44
1200UTC 24.09.2019 12 30.1N 69.1W 992 37
0000UTC 25.09.2019 24 30.7N 68.7W 996 31
1200UTC 25.09.2019 36 31.4N 67.5W 999 30
0000UTC 26.09.2019 48 31.7N 65.9W 1002 26
1200UTC 26.09.2019 60 31.9N 65.4W 1004 26
0000UTC 27.09.2019 72 32.5N 65.7W 1005 25
1200UTC 27.09.2019 84 32.0N 65.8W 1007 30
0000UTC 28.09.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 65.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2019 0 15.9N 65.6W 1008 24
1200UTC 24.09.2019 12 17.8N 65.4W 1008 27
0000UTC 25.09.2019 24 20.1N 65.0W 1007 25
1200UTC 25.09.2019 36 22.2N 64.1W 1007 30
0000UTC 26.09.2019 48 24.9N 62.6W 1004 32
1200UTC 26.09.2019 60 27.3N 61.9W 1002 34
0000UTC 27.09.2019 72 29.1N 60.9W 999 46
1200UTC 27.09.2019 84 31.0N 60.7W 1000 40
0000UTC 28.09.2019 96 32.8N 61.9W 1004 33
1200UTC 28.09.2019 108 33.3N 64.4W 1006 28
0000UTC 29.09.2019 120 33.9N 66.5W 1004 35
1200UTC 29.09.2019 132 33.0N 68.0W 1002 31
0000UTC 30.09.2019 144 33.3N 68.7W 999 42

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 137.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2019 0 16.5N 137.2W 1000 38
1200UTC 24.09.2019 12 17.7N 138.5W 1005 34
0000UTC 25.09.2019 24 18.8N 140.1W 1007 29
1200UTC 25.09.2019 36 19.4N 141.4W 1009 26
0000UTC 26.09.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 26.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 24.09.2019 0 11.1N 26.3W 1007 35
1200UTC 24.09.2019 12 12.2N 28.6W 1001 47
0000UTC 25.09.2019 24 13.0N 31.6W 997 51
1200UTC 25.09.2019 36 13.5N 34.5W 991 53
0000UTC 26.09.2019 48 14.4N 37.2W 983 57
1200UTC 26.09.2019 60 15.3N 39.6W 972 60
0000UTC 27.09.2019 72 17.2N 41.2W 959 74
1200UTC 27.09.2019 84 19.3N 42.9W 944 88
0000UTC 28.09.2019 96 20.7N 44.6W 946 79
1200UTC 28.09.2019 108 21.9N 45.3W 938 82
0000UTC 29.09.2019 120 23.3N 45.5W 939 86
1200UTC 29.09.2019 132 24.5N 45.9W 942 81
0000UTC 30.09.2019 144 25.5N 46.2W 931 85

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.6N 139.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 30.09.2019 144 13.5N 138.2W 1004 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240356

>

2019-09-24 03:57

WTNT80 EGRR 240356

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 28.9N 68.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2019 28.9N 68.4W MODERATE
12UTC 24.09.2019 30.1N 69.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 30.7N 68.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 31.4N 67.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 31.7N 65.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 31.9N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 32.5N 65.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 32.0N 65.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 65.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2019 15.9N 65.6W WEAK
12UTC 24.09.2019 17.8N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 20.1N 65.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 22.2N 64.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 24.9N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 27.3N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 29.1N 60.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 31.0N 60.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 32.8N 61.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2019 33.3N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2019 33.9N 66.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2019 33.0N 68.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2019 33.3N 68.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.5N 137.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2019 16.5N 137.2W WEAK
12UTC 24.09.2019 17.7N 138.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 18.8N 140.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 19.4N 141.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ANALYSED POSITION : 11.1N 26.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.09.2019 11.1N 26.3W WEAK
12UTC 24.09.2019 12.2N 28.6W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 25.09.2019 13.0N 31.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.09.2019 13.5N 34.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2019 14.4N 37.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2019 15.3N 39.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2019 17.2N 41.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 27.09.2019 19.3N 42.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 28.09.2019 20.7N 44.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2019 21.9N 45.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.09.2019 23.3N 45.5W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2019 24.5N 45.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 30.09.2019 25.5N 46.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.6N 139.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 30.09.2019 13.5N 138.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 240356

>

2019-09-24 02:39

WTNT43 KNHC 240237
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Infrared satellite imagery and microwave data indicate that
convection and banding has been on the increase this evening very
near the the center of Lorenzo, while the existing bands that
extend well away from the center have been growing in size.
This improving organization supports raising the initial intensity
to 45 kt, and this is in agreement with the latest subjective Dvorak
estimates from both TAFB and SAB. A recent ASCAT-C overpass
sampled tropical-storm-force winds that now extend up to 80 n
mi in the northern semicircle and suggested that the initial wind
speed could be a little conservative.

Lorenzo will be in an environment favorable for intensification for
the next several days. And, given the recent increase in convection
near the storm's center, there is now greater confidence that
Lorenzo could become a hurricane by late tomorrow. If the near-term
forecast trend verifies, then it will raise confidence that
Lorenzo may become a major hurricane in the medium range. Only at
the very end of the forecast period does it appear that the system
will begin to encounter increasing shear and some drier air, which
should limit any further strengthening. The official NHC wind speed
prediction shows intensification a little faster than the last
forecast through the first couple of days, but is near the previous
advisory thereafter. This forecast is very close to the HFIP
corrected-consensus HCCA.

Lorenzo is moving westward at 13 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to
the north of the cyclone will steer it generally westward to
west-northwestward over the next few days. Late in the forecast
period, a break in the ridge is forecast to develop between 40-45W,
which should cause Lorenzo to turn to the northwest. The official
NHC forecast is very close to the previous one, and near the
tightly clustered consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 11.6N 26.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 12.1N 28.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 12.8N 31.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 13.4N 34.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 14.0N 37.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 16.1N 41.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 19.0N 44.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 22.0N 46.0W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-24 02:38

WTNT33 KNHC 240236
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...LORENZO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY TUESDAY NIGHT OVER
OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.6N 26.7W
ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 11.6 North, longitude 26.7 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). A west to
west-northwest motion is expected for the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast for the next few days, and Lorenzo is
expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-24 02:38

WTNT23 KNHC 240236
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 26.7W AT 24/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.6N 26.7W AT 24/0300Z
AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.4N 26.0W

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 12.1N 28.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.8N 31.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 13.4N 34.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 110SE 60SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 14.0N 37.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 16.1N 41.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 70SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N 44.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z 22.0N 46.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.6N 26.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-23 20:35

WTNT43 KNHC 232033
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Lorenzo is steadily getting better organized. Visible imagery before
sunset showed that the tropical storm has developed extensive
banding that wraps about 3/4 of the way around the circulation. An
1836 SSMIS overpass also shows this banding, but indicated that the
tropical storm has not developed a tight inner core. Satellite
intensity estimates range from 35 to 47 kt, and the intensity of the
system has been increased to 40 kt.

All indications are that Lorenzo is in a favorable environment for
strengthening, and all of the guidance continues to forecast that it
will become a hurricane during the next few days, perhaps as soon as
tomorrow. In fact, the SHIPS Rapid Intensification Index shows a
45 percent chance of a 25 kt or greater increase in Lorenzo's winds
during the next 24 hours. Since the tropical storm doesn't have a
tight inner-core yet, the NHC forecast isn't quite as bullish, but
still shows steady strengthening, and Lorenzo could become a major
hurricane later this week.

The tropical storm is moving steadily westward with an initial
motion of 275/14. The new NHC track forecast is essentially just an
update of the previous one, and no substantial changes were made.
Lorenzo will likely move generally westward to west-northwestward at
a similar forward speed for the next few days, before turning
northwestward over the weekend. The global models are in very good
agreement on this scenario, but do differ on how soon Lorenzo will
turn northwestward. The NHC forecast is based primarily on HCCA, and
is on the left side of the guidance envelope. This is also closer to
the ECMWF and UKMET forecasts which delay the start of Lorenzo's
recurvature a little more than the GFS and its derived models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 11.3N 25.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 11.7N 27.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 12.4N 30.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 13.1N 33.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 13.6N 35.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 15.4N 40.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 18.3N 43.8W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 21.5N 46.5W 100 KT 115 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-23 20:35

WTNT33 KNHC 232033
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 PM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...LORENZO STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTH OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.3N 25.5W
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 25.5 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion at a similar forward speed is anticipated
for the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of the
tropical storm will pass well to the south of the Cabo Verde Islands
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Lorenzo
is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-23 20:35

WTNT23 KNHC 232033
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
2100 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 25.5W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 25.5W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 24.8W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.7N 27.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 12.4N 30.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 13.1N 33.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE 60SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 13.6N 35.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 130SE 70SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 15.4N 40.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 130SE 70SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 18.3N 43.8W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 21.5N 46.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 25.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-23 15:57

WTNT82 EGRR 231555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 23.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.6N 67.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2019 0 27.6N 67.8W 996 46
0000UTC 24.09.2019 12 28.9N 68.6W 993 45
1200UTC 24.09.2019 24 30.0N 69.6W 989 43
0000UTC 25.09.2019 36 30.3N 69.2W 993 33
1200UTC 25.09.2019 48 30.7N 68.5W 999 29
0000UTC 26.09.2019 60 30.7N 67.7W 1000 26
1200UTC 26.09.2019 72 30.6N 67.6W 1002 26
0000UTC 27.09.2019 84 30.4N 67.8W 1003 25
1200UTC 27.09.2019 96 29.8N 68.2W 1002 35
0000UTC 28.09.2019 108 28.1N 69.1W 996 40
1200UTC 28.09.2019 120 27.7N 68.8W 997 38
0000UTC 29.09.2019 132 28.0N 68.3W 994 44
1200UTC 29.09.2019 144 29.2N 68.0W 991 47

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 64.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2019 0 14.2N 64.5W 1008 34
0000UTC 24.09.2019 12 15.8N 66.0W 1007 24
1200UTC 24.09.2019 24 17.1N 66.3W 1007 28
0000UTC 25.09.2019 36 19.4N 65.4W 1006 31
1200UTC 25.09.2019 48 22.2N 64.4W 1004 37
0000UTC 26.09.2019 60 25.3N 63.0W 1001 37
1200UTC 26.09.2019 72 28.1N 62.2W 999 43
0000UTC 27.09.2019 84 30.4N 61.5W 998 49
1200UTC 27.09.2019 96 32.0N 61.6W 1001 36
0000UTC 28.09.2019 108 32.8N 62.6W 1004 32
1200UTC 28.09.2019 120 33.2N 65.2W 1006 31
0000UTC 29.09.2019 132 33.6N 68.2W 1004 43
1200UTC 29.09.2019 144 33.0N 70.3W 1001 47

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 135.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2019 0 15.6N 135.9W 1002 32
0000UTC 24.09.2019 12 16.4N 137.3W 999 38
1200UTC 24.09.2019 24 18.0N 138.1W 1002 37
0000UTC 25.09.2019 36 18.9N 139.5W 1006 28
1200UTC 25.09.2019 48 19.2N 140.4W 1009 26
0000UTC 26.09.2019 60 18.8N 141.5W 1009 22
1200UTC 26.09.2019 72 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 113.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2019 0 24.4N 113.9W 1008 20
0000UTC 24.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM 13L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 23.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.09.2019 0 11.3N 23.6W 1011 23
0000UTC 24.09.2019 12 11.5N 26.0W 1009 27
1200UTC 24.09.2019 24 12.2N 29.0W 1006 39
0000UTC 25.09.2019 36 12.8N 32.1W 1003 43
1200UTC 25.09.2019 48 13.2N 35.1W 999 46
0000UTC 26.09.2019 60 13.9N 37.7W 991 56
1200UTC 26.09.2019 72 15.0N 40.3W 982 57
0000UTC 27.09.2019 84 16.6N 41.9W 968 68
1200UTC 27.09.2019 96 18.8N 43.2W 955 77
0000UTC 28.09.2019 108 20.6N 44.8W 957 70
1200UTC 28.09.2019 120 21.9N 45.4W 948 76
0000UTC 29.09.2019 132 23.3N 45.7W 941 84
1200UTC 29.09.2019 144 24.3N 46.4W 945 78

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.8N 113.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 25.09.2019 48 13.8N 113.7W 1007 30
0000UTC 26.09.2019 60 15.8N 113.0W 1007 26
1200UTC 26.09.2019 72 17.8N 112.7W 1008 23
0000UTC 27.09.2019 84 18.7N 111.8W 1008 25
1200UTC 27.09.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.5N 140.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2019 144 13.4N 139.5W 1005 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 17.7N 102.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.09.2019 144 19.2N 103.7W 1002 26


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 231555

>

2019-09-23 15:56

WTNT80 EGRR 231555

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 23.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM JERRY ANALYSED POSITION : 27.6N 67.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL102019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.09.2019 27.6N 67.8W MODERATE
00UTC 24.09.2019 28.9N 68.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 30.0N 69.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 30.3N 69.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.09.2019 30.7N 68.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2019 30.7N 67.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 30.6N 67.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 30.4N 67.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 29.8N 68.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 28.1N 69.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 28.09.2019 27.7N 68.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2019 28.0N 68.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2019 29.2N 68.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM KAREN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.2N 64.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL122019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.09.2019 14.2N 64.5W WEAK
00UTC 24.09.2019 15.8N 66.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 17.1N 66.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 19.4N 65.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 22.2N 64.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 25.3N 63.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 28.1N 62.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 30.4N 61.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 32.0N 61.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.09.2019 32.8N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2019 33.2N 65.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.09.2019 33.6N 68.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.09.2019 33.0N 70.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 135.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.09.2019 15.6N 135.9W WEAK
00UTC 24.09.2019 16.4N 137.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 18.0N 138.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 18.9N 139.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 25.09.2019 19.2N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.09.2019 18.8N 141.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARIO ANALYSED POSITION : 24.4N 113.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP142019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.09.2019 24.4N 113.9W WEAK
00UTC 24.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM 13L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 23.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 23.09.2019 11.3N 23.6W WEAK
00UTC 24.09.2019 11.5N 26.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.09.2019 12.2N 29.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.09.2019 12.8N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.09.2019 13.2N 35.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 26.09.2019 13.9N 37.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.09.2019 15.0N 40.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 27.09.2019 16.6N 41.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 27.09.2019 18.8N 43.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 28.09.2019 20.6N 44.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.09.2019 21.9N 45.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 29.09.2019 23.3N 45.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 29.09.2019 24.3N 46.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 13.8N 113.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 25.09.2019 13.8N 113.7W WEAK
00UTC 26.09.2019 15.8N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.09.2019 17.8N 112.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.09.2019 18.7N 111.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.5N 140.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2019 13.4N 139.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 17.7N 102.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 29.09.2019 19.2N 103.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 231555

>

2019-09-23 15:04

WTNT33 KNHC 231502 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 3...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Corrected typo in discussion and outlook section

...TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 24.1W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 24.1 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A motion toward the
west-northwest is expected starting tonight, and this is forecast to
continue through the middle of the week. On the forecast track, the
center of the tropical storm should pass well to the south of the
Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Lorenzo
is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-23 14:48

WTNT43 KNHC 231446
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Lorenzo Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Yet another tropical storm has formed over the Atlantic, this one
over the far eastern portion of the basin. The system has been
designated as Tropical Storm Lorenzo based on satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS, all of which support
tropical-storm strength. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt, but
its possible this is somewhat conservative since the TAFB
classification was a little higher.

Recent GMI microwave imagery and ASCAT-C data showed that the
low-level center of Lorenzo is on the north side of most of its deep
convection. While this disorganized structure may limit how quickly
Lorenzo can strengthen in the short-term, the tropical storm is
located within a generally favorable environment for
intensification. All of the intensity guidance shows Lorenzo
becoming a hurricane, but the timing varies from model to model. The
official forecast follows the HFIP Corrected Consensus, and shows
Lorenzo reaching hurricane status within 48 h. Continued
strengthening is forecast thereafter. No noteworthy changes were
made to the NHC intensity forecast.

The ASCAT and microwave data were very helpful in determining the
location of Lorenzo's center and its forward speed. The cyclone
has accelerated and the initial motion estimate is now 275/15 kt.
Very little adjustment was made to the NHC track forecast. Lorenzo
is still forecast to be steered generally westward to
west-northwestward to the south of a deep-layer ridge centered over
the eastern Atlantic. The cyclone will pass well south and southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. A turn toward the
northwest is forecast in about 4 days as Lorenzo reaches a break in
the ridge. Just like the intensity forecast, the track forecast is
based heavily on HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 11.1N 24.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 11.5N 26.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 12.0N 28.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 12.5N 31.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 13.1N 34.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 26/1200Z 14.6N 39.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 27/1200Z 17.1N 43.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/1200Z 20.5N 47.0W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-23 14:47

WTNT33 KNHC 231445
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.1N 24.1W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM S OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Lorenzo was
located near latitude 11.1 North, longitude 24.1 West. Lorenzo is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A motion toward the
west-northwest is expected starting tonight, and this is forecast to
continue through the middle of the week. On the forecast track, the
center of the depression should pass well to the south of the Cabo
Verde Islands today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Lorenzo
is expected to become a hurricane by Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-23 14:46

WTNT23 KNHC 231444
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
1500 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 24.1W AT 23/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 24.1W AT 23/1500Z
AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.1N 23.3W

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 11.5N 26.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 12.0N 28.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.5N 31.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 13.1N 34.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 70SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 14.6N 39.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 70SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 17.1N 43.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1200Z 20.5N 47.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.1N 24.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-23 09:05

WTNT33 KNHC 230903
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED THE FAR EASTERN
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 22.2W
ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Thirteen
was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 22.2 West. The
depression is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this
general motion is forecast to continue through this afternoon. A
motion toward the west-northwest is expected tonight and Tuesday. On
the forecast track, the center of the depression should pass well to
the south of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today and a
hurricane by Tuesday night or early Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-23 08:54

WTNT43 KNHC 230852
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 23 2019

Infrared and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that the
depression is gradually getting better organized, with upper-level
outflow improving in all quadrants. However, the low-level and
mid-level circulations do not appear to be vertically aligned quite
yet, with the mid-level center displaced a little to the west of the
low-level center. As a result, the intensity has been maintained at
30 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion is 270/13 kt. A strong deep-layer ridge to the
north of the cyclone is expected to steer the system generally
westward to west-northwestward for the next 72 hours or so,
resulting in the center passing well to the south and southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. On days 4 and 5, a motion
toward the northwest is expected as the cyclone begins to move into
a weakness in the ridge. The new track guidance remains tightly
clustered about the previous forecast track, so no significant
changes were required.

The cyclone is forecast to remain in light vertical shear conditions
throughout the 5-day period. That favorable upper-level flow regime
will combine with SSTs near 29 deg C and a moist mid-level
environment to allow the cyclone to steadily strengthen into a
hurricane by Tuesday and be near major hurricane strength by day 4.
The new NHC intensity forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory and closely follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 10.8N 22.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 11.0N 24.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 11.5N 26.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 12.1N 29.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 12.8N 32.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/0600Z 14.0N 37.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 27/0600Z 16.3N 42.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/0600Z 19.6N 45.7W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-23 08:39

WTNT23 KNHC 230837
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0900 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 22.2W AT 23/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 22.2W AT 23/0900Z
AT 23/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 21.5W

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 11.0N 24.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 11.5N 26.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 12.1N 29.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 12.8N 32.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 14.0N 37.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 16.3N 42.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 19.6N 45.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 22.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-23 02:46

WTNT43 KNHC 230244
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Thirteen Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

Satellite imagery and partial scatterometer overpasses indicate
that the tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic has
developed enough circulation and organized convection to be
designated a tropical depression. The convection is currently
organized into a large band over the western semicircle, with an
additional smaller band to the southeast. The initial intensity is
set at 30 kt in best agreement with a satellite intensity estimate
from TAFB.

The initial motion is 270/14. A strong deep-layer ridge to the
north of the depression should steer it generally westward to
west-northwestward for the next 3-4 days, with the center passing
well to the south and southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Near
the end of the forecast period, the cyclone is expected to turn
northwestward as it approaches a weakness in the ridge. The track
guidance is tightly clustered, and the forecast track is in best
agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model.

The cyclone is forecast to be in a light to moderate easterly shear
environment over warm sea surface temperatures for the next 3-4
days, and there are no obvious negative factors to prevent
strengthening. The intensity forecast thus calls for steady
intensification through 96 h, with the intensity forecast lying near
the upper edge of the guidance from 48-96 h. Some southwesterly
shear may develop near 120 h, so the forecast show little change in
strength from 96-120 h.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 10.8N 20.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 10.8N 23.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 11.1N 25.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 11.8N 28.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 12.6N 31.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 26/0000Z 13.8N 36.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 27/0000Z 15.5N 41.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 28/0000Z 19.0N 45.5W 95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-23 02:46

WTNT33 KNHC 230244
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Thirteen Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 22 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.8N 20.9W
ABOUT 365 MI...585 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of
this system.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Thirteen was located near latitude 10.8 North, longitude 20.9 West.
The depression is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A
general motion toward the west is expected through Monday, with a
motion toward the west-northwest expected Monday night and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of the depression should pass
well south of the Cabo Verde Islands.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is expected, with the depression forecast to
become a tropical storm on Monday and a hurricane by Tuesday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-23 02:45

WTNT23 KNHC 230243
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132019
0300 UTC MON SEP 23 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 20.9W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 20.9W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.8N 20.2W

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 10.8N 23.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 11.1N 25.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 11.8N 28.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 12.6N 31.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 13.8N 36.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 70SW 130NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 15.5N 41.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 19.0N 45.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 10.8N 20.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>