Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for HUMBERTO-19
in Bermuda, Bahamas, United States, Bahamas, Bermuda

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2019-09-20 02:51

WTNT44 KNHC 200249
TCDAT4

Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Discussion Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Satellite images show what little deep convection remains has been
displaced well to the north of the center of the cyclone, and it
can no longer be classified via the Dvorak technique. Moreover,
cold air stratocumulus clouds over the western and southern
portions of the circulation are indicative of cold air advection
that is characteristic of an extratropical cyclone. Therefore,
Humberto is now post-tropical and this will be the last advisory
issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system.

It is estimated that the cyclone still has hurricane-force winds
and based on continuity from previous estimates with a gradual
weakening rate, the current intensity is set at 85 kt. Continued
gradual weakening is likely, and after 48 hours the system is
expected to merge with another extratropical low over the north
Atlantic.

The cyclone has turned north-northeastward along the eastern side
of a deep layer cyclonic circulation, with a current motion
estimate of 030/17 kt. A turn toward the east-northeast is
expected in a day or so as the system moves within the mid-latitude
westerlies until dissipation.


Key Messages:

1. Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern
Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.
These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 40.0N 58.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 20/1200Z 41.8N 56.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 21/0000Z 44.0N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/1200Z 45.5N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 22/0000Z 46.5N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-20 02:50

WTNT34 KNHC 200248
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Humberto Advisory Number 30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...HUMBERTO BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.0N 58.0W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Humberto was located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 58.0 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near
20 mph (31 km/h). A slower north-northeastward motion is expected
tonight and Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected to
commence by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of
days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380
miles (610 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will
continue along the coast of Bermuda during the next day or two, and
these could continue to cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and much of
the coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-20 02:50

WTNT24 KNHC 200248
TCMAT4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 30
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 20 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 58.0W AT 20/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT.......330NE 240SE 180SW 330NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 540SE 995SW 480NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 58.0W AT 20/0300Z
AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.2N 58.4W

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 41.8N 56.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 200SE 150SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 44.0N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 45.5N 48.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 200SE 180SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 46.5N 40.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 200SE 180SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 58.0W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-19 20:36

WTNT44 KNHC 192033
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Humberto is almost a post-tropical cyclone. Satellite images show
a well-defined cold and warm front, but they do not appear to be
fully connected to the center of circulation yet. In addition, the
cyclone is still producing an area of deep convection to
the northwest of the exposed low-level center. ASCAT data from
earlier today indicated that the wind field of Humberto is very
large with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 330 n mi from
the center and hurricane-force winds extending out to 70 n mi from
the center. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 90 kt for
this advisory.

The cyclone is anticipated to become fully extratropical soon,
within the next 6 to 12 hours. Although weakening is forecast,
Humberto is expected to be a large and powerful extratropical
cyclone for a couple of days before it is absorbed by another
extratropical low over the north Atlantic. The NHC intensity
forecast generally follows the guidance of the GFS model, which
typically handles extratropical lows better than the tropical
cyclone intensity guidance.

Humberto is moving northeastward at 21 kt. A slight turn to the
left and a decrease in forward speed are expected during the next
12 to 24 hours as the cyclone rotates around the east and north
sides of a mid- to upper-level low to its west. After that time, a
faster east-northeast or east motion is expected when the cyclone
becomes embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and near the
various consensus aids.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern
Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.
These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 38.5N 58.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 40.4N 57.5W 75 KT 85 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1800Z 42.8N 55.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0600Z 44.6N 51.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1800Z 45.6N 44.6W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-19 20:35

WTNT34 KNHC 192032
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
TONIGHT...
...LARGE SWELLS CONTINUE TO AFFECT BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE EAST
COAST OF THE U.S...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...38.5N 58.7W
ABOUT 550 MI...885 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 38.5 North, longitude 58.7 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). A slower north-
northeastward motion is expected tonight and Friday. A turn
toward the east-northeast is expected to commence by Friday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. The hurricane is expected to slowly weaken and become a
post-tropical cyclone tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 380
miles (610 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will
continue along the coast of Bermuda during the next day or two, and
these could continue to cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and much of
the coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-19 20:34

WTNT24 KNHC 192032
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
2100 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 58.7W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT.......150NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
34 KT.......330NE 240SE 180SW 330NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 480SE 960SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 38.5N 58.7W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 59.3W

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 40.4N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...270NE 200SE 150SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 42.8N 55.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 80SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 44.6N 51.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 200SE 180SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 45.6N 44.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 80SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 200SE 180SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 38.5N 58.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-19 14:52

WTNT44 KNHC 191450
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Humberto is still a powerful hurricane, but the system is in the
process of transitioning to an extratropical cyclone. Satellite
images indicate that frontal features have formed, and cooler and
drier air is wrapping around the western and southern sides of the
circulation. Deep convection is most organized to the north and
west of the partially exposed low-level center. The initial
intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this advisory.

A mid- to upper-level low situated just west of Humberto has been
aiding in its transition, and the global models suggest that
Humberto will become fully extratropical later today. Despite the
fact that the cyclone is expected to lose its tropical
characteristics, it is still forecast to produce winds of
hurricane-force for another 36 hours or so.

Humberto is moving northeastward at 21 kt. A turn to the
north-northeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected later
today and tonight as Humberto rotates around the north side of the
mid- to upper-level low. After that, a faster east-northeast or
east motion is expected, as the system becomes embedded in the
mid-latitude westerlies. The cyclone should be absorbed by
another extratropical low in about 3 days over the far north
Atlantic.

Key Messages:

1. Large swells will continue to affect Bermuda, the northwestern
Bahamas, and the east coast of the United States from east-central
Florida to the Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.
These swells could create life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 36.8N 60.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 38.8N 58.9W 90 KT 105 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 20/1200Z 41.2N 57.6W 80 KT 90 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 21/0000Z 43.2N 54.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/1200Z 44.6N 49.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-19 14:50

WTNT34 KNHC 191448
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
LATER TODAY...
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING BERMUDA AND MUCH OF THE EAST COAST
OF THE U.S...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.8N 60.0W
ABOUT 415 MI...665 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 36.8 North, longitude 60.0 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h). A slower north-
northeastward motion is expected later today and tonight. A turn
toward the east-northeast is expected to commence on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher
gusts. The hurricane is expected to slowly weaken and become a
post-tropical cyclone later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 405
miles (650 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will
continue along the coast of Bermuda during the next day or two, and
these could continue to cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and much of
the coast of the United States from east-central Florida to the
Mid-Atlantic States during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-19 14:50

WTNT24 KNHC 191448
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 60.0W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......220NE 170SE 160SW 350NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 480SE 960SW 600NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 60.0W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 60.8W

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.8N 58.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...210NE 180SE 150SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 41.2N 57.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 150SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 43.2N 54.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 180SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 44.6N 49.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 90SE 90SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 200SE 200SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.8N 60.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-19 09:19

WTNT24 KNHC 190916 CCA
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 62.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......220NE 170SE 160SW 350NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 480SE 900SW 630NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 62.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 62.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.4N 60.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 170SE 160SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.9N 58.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 170SE 160SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 41.8N 57.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 180SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 43.2N 53.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 46.3N 36.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...250NE 160SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 62.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-19 09:16

WTNT34 KNHC 190914 CCA
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 27...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...HUMBERTO STILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 62.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 62.2 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a north-
northeastward motion at a slower forward speed Thursday night
and Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected Friday
night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto
will continue to move away from Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane should start to weaken today,
and it is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 405
miles (650 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will
continue along the coast of Bermuda through today, and these could
continue to cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge along the coast of Bermuda should subside
today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-19 08:55

WTNT44 KNHC 190853
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

Flight-level and surface wind observations reported by Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft exiting Humberto a couple of hours
ago indicated that the maximum sustained winds have increased to 110
kt. However, weakening is expected to commence soon.

Humberto's extratropical transition continues as a high amplitude PV
tongue, noted in the GOES-16 water vapor imagery, and associated dry
air, digs into the backside of the cyclone. The large-scale models,
as well as the FSU Cyclone Phase Evolution forecast, indicate that
the process will be completed in less than 36 hours. Afterward,
gradual weakening is expected until the extratropical low is
absorbed by another larger low pressure system, moving out of
Atlantic Canada, by the end of the forecast period. The NHC
intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast
and is based on a blend of the global models beyond the 36 hour
period.

The initial motion is estimated to be northeastward, or 045/19 kt.
Humberto is forecast to turn north-northeastward as the cyclone
completes its extratropical transition, followed by a turn
back toward the east-northeast within the strong deep-layer
mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is nudged a little to the
left of the previous advisory between the 36 and 72 hour periods,
and is close to the NOAA HFIP HCCA consensus model.

Key Messages:

1. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves, while diminishing,
could cause coastal flooding today along the coast of Bermuda.

2. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 35.2N 62.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 37.4N 60.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 39.9N 58.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 41.8N 57.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/0600Z 43.2N 53.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0600Z 46.3N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-19 08:54

WTNT34 KNHC 190852
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...HUMBERTO STILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.2N 62.2W
ABOUT 250 MI...400 KM NE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 35.2 North, longitude 62.2 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northeast near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a north-
northeastward motion at a slower forward speed Thursday night
and Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected Friday
night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto
will continue to move away from Bermuda.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane should start to weaken today,
and it is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 405
miles (650 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will
continue along the coast of Bermuda through today, and these could
continue to cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge along the coast of Bermuda should subside
today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-19 08:54

WTNT24 KNHC 190852
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0900 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 62.2W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......220NE 170SE 160SW 350NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 480SE 900SW 630NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 62.2W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.5N 62.9W

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.4N 60.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 170SE 160SW 300NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.9N 58.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...240NE 170SE 160SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 41.8N 57.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...150NE 110SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...250NE 180SE 150SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 43.2N 53.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...250NE 170SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 46.3N 36.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...250NE 160SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LOW

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 62.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 19/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-19 05:52

WTNT34 KNHC 190548
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 26A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
200 AM AST Thu Sep 19 2019

...HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER BUT EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING DISCONTINUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM AST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.7N 63.0W
ABOUT 195 MI...315 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...200 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM AST (0600 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 34.7 North, longitude 63.0 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). This general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a north-
northeastward motion at a slower forward speed Thursday night
and Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected Friday
night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto
will continue to move away from Bermuda.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
exiting Humberto a couple of hours ago indicated that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (200 km/h) with
higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane should start to
weaken today, and it is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone
by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will
continue along the coast of Bermuda through today, and these could
continue to cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge along the coast of Bermuda should subside
today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-19 02:57

WTNT44 KNHC 190255
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Normal communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been
restored. However, the weather radar on Bermuda is currently down.

The center of Humberto made its closest approach to Bermuda a few
hours ago, with many weather stations on the island reporting
sustained hurricane force winds and gusts near or over 100 kt.
Since that time, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
arrived at the storm and reported little change in strength despite
a decaying appearance in satellite imagery. The SFMR surface wind
estimates were in the 100-105 kt range to the west of the center,
and the central pressure was near 952 mb. Based on these data,
the initial intensity is held at a possibly conservative 105 kt.

The decay in the satellite signature is due to Humberto starting to
undergo extratropical transition, a process that the global models
forecast to be complete by 36 h. Those models forecast that the
cyclone should steadily weaken during and after the transition
until it is absorbed by another low pressure system between 96-120
h, and the intensity forecast follows this scenario. The new
intensity forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast,
with a slightly faster decrease in intensity during the first 48 h.

The initial motion is now 055/20. Humberto is forecast to turn
north-northeastward as it becomes extratropical, followed by a turn
back toward the east-northeastward as the extratropical low is
steered by the mid-latitude westerlies. The track guidance
remains tightly clustered, and the new forecast track has only
minor adjustments from the previous forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm conditions on Bermuda should subside during the
next several hours.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves, while diminishing,
could cause coastal flooding tonight and Thursday along the coast of
Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 34.0N 63.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 35.8N 61.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 38.5N 59.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 40.7N 58.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 21/0000Z 42.4N 56.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 22/0000Z 45.0N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 23/0000Z 50.0N 25.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-19 02:55

WTNT34 KNHC 190253
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...CENTER OF HUMBERTO MOVING AWAY FROM BERMUDA...
...TROPICAL-STORM-CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS BERMUDA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.0N 63.9W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM NNE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has changed the Hurricane Warning to a
Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, in this case during the next
several hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 34.0 North, longitude 63.9 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northeast near 23 mph (37 km/h). This
general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed
by a north-northeastward motion at a slower forward speed Thursday
night and Friday. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected
Friday night and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of
Humberto will continue to move away from Bermuda tonight.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft
indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The hurricane should start to
weaken later tonight, and it is expected to become a post-tropical
cyclone by Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220
miles (350 km). Several stations on Bermuda are reporting sustained
winds of 40-50 mph (65-80 km/h) with higher gusts.

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Humberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml.

WIND: Tropical-storm-force winds will persist on Bermuda into late
Thursday morning.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells and dangerous surf generated by Humberto will
continue along the coast of Bermuda through Thursday, and these
could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge along the coast of Bermuda should subside
tonight and Thursday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-19 02:55

WTNT24 KNHC 190253
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0300 UTC THU SEP 19 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING TO A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 63.9W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT.......170NE 190SE 150SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 420SE 780SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 63.9W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 65.0W

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 35.8N 61.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 160SW 250NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.5N 59.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 110NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 160SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.7N 58.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 100SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 42.4N 56.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 190SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 45.0N 41.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 50.0N 25.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.0N 63.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 19/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-18 23:59

WTNT34 KNHC 182357
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
800 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS CONTINUING ON BERMUDA...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS BERMUDA INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 65.0W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM N OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane
Humberto was located by satellite and Bermuda weather radar data
near latitude 33.4 North, longitude 65.0 West. Humberto is moving
toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion
with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through
early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward
motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the core of Humberto
will continue to pass north of Bermuda this evening.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful
hurricane through early Thursday while it passes close to Bermuda. A
steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.

Humberto is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km). An automated station
at Pearl Island recently reported sustained winds of 100 mph
(161 km/h) and a wind gust of 123 mph (198 km/h). Wade
International Airport recently reported a wind gust of 115 mph
(185 km/h).


The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Humberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring on Bermuda and should
continue for a few more hours. Tropical-storm-force winds will
persist on Bermuda into late Thursday morning.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected. Rainfall amounts up to 3
inches have already been reported across portions of the island.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda today and tonight. Dangerous breaking waves,
especially along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday
night into Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding. Wave heights
exceeding 30 feet have already been reported by an offshore NOAA
buoy.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-18 20:54

WTNT44 KNHC 182052
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Normal communications with the Bermuda Weather Service have been
disrupted due to a lightning strike.

Humberto is taking on more of a hybrid-extratropical structure based
on most of the rain shield having been displaced to the left or
poleward side of the circulation now as seen in Bermuda weather
radar data, and also in conventional and passive microwave satellite
imagery. Sustained hurricane-force winds and gusts have been
measured by amateur radio operators across the island, with a peak
gust to 104 mph having been reported thus far at Ports Island,
Bermuda. The initial intensity of 105 kt on the previous advisory
has been maintained since little overall change in the structure has
occurred since the last aircraft reconnaissance mission 6 hours ago.

The initial motion estimate is 060/17 kt. There are no significant
changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning. Humberto has
basically remained on track during the past 24 hours. The hurricane
is expected to continue accelerating toward the east-northeast
tonight and Thursday morning, with the center expected to pass
about 80 nmi northwest of Bermuda early this evening. A turn toward
the northeast and north-northeast is forecast to occur by early
Thursday afternoon, followed by a motion toward the east-northeast
by 48 hours, with the latter motion continuing through 96 hours. The
new official track forecast is similar to the previous advisory
track, and lies close to the tightly packed TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and
FSSE consensus track models.

Humberto is now fully embedded within an anticyclonically curved
right-rear jet entrance region. As a result, some fluctuations in
strength could occur during the next 12 hours or so. Thereafter,
strong southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 50 kt, along
with cold upwelling beneath the hurricane, should combine to induce
steady weakening. By 48 hours, the global models continue to
forecast Humberto to merge with a frontal system, and the NHC
intensity forecast calls for extratropical transition around that
time. The official intensity forecast follows an average of the
global models' intensity forecasts due to Humberto's hybrid nature,
which is not being captured properly by the tropical-cyclone-based
consensus intensity models.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of dangerous winds is expected to continue on
Bermuda through Thursday morning, with hurricane-force winds
expected during the next several hours. Preparations to protect
life and property should be rushed to completion.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 33.0N 66.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 34.6N 63.6W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 37.4N 61.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 39.8N 60.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 41.6N 58.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 21/1800Z 43.9N 47.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1800Z 49.0N 30.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED/ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-18 20:48

WTNT34 KNHC 182046
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...HURRICANE CONDITIONS RAKING THE ISLAND OF BERMUDA...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS BERMUDA INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 66.3W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of the large eye of Hurricane
Humberto was located by satellite and Bermuda weather radar data
near latitude 33.0 North, longitude 66.3 West. Humberto is moving
toward the east-northeast near 20 mph (31 km/h). This general motion
with an additional increase in forward speed is expected through
early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward
motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the core of Humberto
is expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda later
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful
hurricane through early Thursday while it passes close to Bermuda.
A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.

Humberto is a expected to remain a large hurricane. Hurricane-force
winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km).
An amateur radio operator at Ports Island near the southern end of
Bermuda reported a sustained wind of 75 mph (121 km/h) and a gust to
104 mph (167 km/h) during the past hour. An amateur radio operator
in Somerset Village recently reported a sustained wind of 70 mph
(113 km/h) and a gust to 89 mph (143 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Humberto can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane-force wind gusts are occurring on Bermuda and
sustained hurricane force winds will occur tonight into early
Thursday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds will persist on Bermuda
into late Thursday morning.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected. Rainfall amounts up to 3
inches have already been reported across portions of the island.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda today and tonight. Dangerous breaking waves,
especially along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday
night into Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding. Wave heights
exceeding 30 feet have already been reported by an offshore NOAA
buoy.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-18 20:46

WTNT24 KNHC 182044
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
2100 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 66.3W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 50 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 100SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 360SE 510SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.0N 66.3W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.5N 67.2W

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.6N 63.6W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.4N 61.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 39.8N 60.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 41.6N 58.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 43.9N 47.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 49.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...DISSIPATED/ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.0N 66.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 19/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-18 17:53

WTNT34 KNHC 181751
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
200 PM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS OCCURRING ON BERMUDA...
...HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXPECTED ON THE ISLAND BY THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 67.2W
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located by satellite and the Bermuda weather radar near latitude
32.4 North, longitude 67.2 West. Humberto is now moving toward the
east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion with an
additional increase in forward speed is expected through early
Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward motion
through Friday. On the forecast track, the core of Humberto is
expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda later
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful
hurricane through early Thursday while it passes close to Bermuda.
A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.

Humberto is a large hurricane, with hurricane-force winds extending
outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 195 miles (315
km) based on satellite-derived surface wind data. A wind gust to
51 mph (82 km/h) recently occurred at the Bermuda airport.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by this
evening and continue into early Thursday morning.
Tropical-storm-force winds will occur on Bermuda through Thursday
morning. Outside preparations are becoming difficult or dangerous
and should be completed soon.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda today. Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding. Wave heights exceeding
30 feet have already been reported by an offshore NOAA buoy.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-18 14:46

WTNT44 KNHC 181444
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft conducting a
reconnoiter of Humberto this morning found that the intensity of the
major hurricane had increased slightly, but that the inner-core 64-
and 50-kt wind fields had expanded significantly, now extending
outward up to at least 90 n mi and 110 n mi, respectively, in the
southeastern quadrant. During their pass through the southeastern
quadrant, the aircraft measured 700-mb flight-level winds of 120 kt,
but peak SFMR winds of only 97 kt. Given that convection is minimal
in that quadrant, the normal downward mixing is likely not
occurring, the intensity has only been increased to 105 kt. The
aircraft also measured a central pressure of 952 mb with a
dropsonde, which is close to the pressure of 954.2 mb with 30-kt
winds that NOAA buoy 41048 measured in the eye around 0930 UTC.

The initial motion estimate remains 065/14 kt. Humberto is beginning
to feel the effects of a deep-layer trough approaching from the
west, and the hurricane should continue to accelerate toward the
east-northeast through tonight, passing just north and northwest
of Bermuda, followed by a turn toward the northeast by early
Thursday afternoon. By 48 hours or so, Humberto is forecast to turn
back toward the east-northeast and maintain that motion through day
5 as a ridge to the east of the cyclone weakens and flattens out.
The new NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous one for
the first 36 hours, and then is a little faster and to the left of
the previous advisory thereafter, closer to the tightly packed
consensus track model guidance.

Humberto may have peaked in intensity based on the cloud pattern
in satellite imagery beginning to take on the appearance of an
extratropical cyclone. Thus, some fluctuations in strength could
occur during the next 12 hours or so. Thereafter, very strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear and cold upwelling beneath the
hurricane should disrupt the inner-core convection and organization,
resulting in steady weakening. By 72 hours, the global models
continue to show Humberto merging with a frontal system, and the
NHC intensity forecast calls for extratropical transition by that
time. The official intensity forecast follows the corrected-
consensus models HCCA and FSSE through the next 12-24 hours, and
then is above that guidance through the remainder of the forecast
period, closer to an average of the global models.

Key Messages:

1. A prolonged period of dangerous winds is expected on Bermuda from
late this afternoon through Thursday morning, with hurricane-force
winds expected overnight tonight. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 32.2N 68.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 33.5N 65.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 36.1N 62.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 38.6N 60.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 40.7N 59.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 43.3N 50.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/1200Z 47.2N 33.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/1200Z 54.0N 20.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-18 14:40

WTNT34 KNHC 181438
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS HUMBERTO
STRONGER AS THE MAJOR HURRICANE THREATENS BERMUDA...
...LARGE HURRICANE-FORCE WIND FIELD CONTINUES TO EXPAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.2N 68.1W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.12 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 32.2 North, longitude 68.1 West. Humberto is now moving
toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general
motion with an additional increase in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-
northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the
core of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and north
of Bermuda later tonight.

Reports from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h) with
higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a
powerful hurricane through early Thursday while it passes close to
Bermuda. A steady weakening trend should begin later on Thursday.

Humberto is a large hurricane and continues to grow in size.
Hurricane-force winds now extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to
195 miles (315 km) based on reports from the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft.

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 952 mb (28.12 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda this
evening and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds are
expected to reach tropical-storm strength later this afternoon,
making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to
protect life and property should be rushed to completion.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda today. Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding. Wave heights exceeding
30 feet have already been reported by an offshore NOAA buoy.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-18 14:40

WTNT24 KNHC 181438
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
1500 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 68.1W AT 18/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT.......100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT.......150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 300SE 360SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.2N 68.1W AT 18/1500Z
AT 18/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 68.8W

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 33.5N 65.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.1N 62.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.6N 60.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 40.7N 59.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 43.3N 50.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 47.2N 33.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 54.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.2N 68.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 18/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-18 11:48

WTNT34 KNHC 181146
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
800 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...HUMBERTO'S EYE PASSES DIRECTLY OVER A NOAA BUOY...
...OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 68.9W
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located
by satellite near latitude 31.8 North, longitude 68.9 West. Humberto
has increased its forward speed and is moving toward the east-
northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion with an
additional increase in forward speed is expected through early
Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward motion
through Friday. On the forecast track, the core of Humberto is
expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda later
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful
hurricane through early Thursday. A steady weakening trend should
begin later on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). The eye of Hurricane Humberto passed over NOAA buoy
around 500 AM AST (0900 UTC). The buoy measured a sustained wind of
76 mph (122 km/h) and a wind gust to 90 mph (145 km/h) at 4-meters
elevation, and also reported a pressure of 954.2 mb (28.18 inches)
during the eye passage.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches)
based on reports from the NOAA buoy.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda tonight
and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to
reach tropical-storm strength later this afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda today. Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-18 08:49

WTNT44 KNHC 180847
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

Humberto's satellite presentation continues to be outstanding with
a large ragged eye and surrounded by deep convection. The eye of the
hurricane is very near NOAA Buoy 41048 and most likely will passing
over it by the time this advisory is being released. The pressure
from the buoy has been dropping fast and is now at 961 mb and the
sustained winds have reached 58 kt with gusts to 78 kt. Based on
satellite appearance and continuity, the initial intensity is kept
at 100 kt. Another Hurricane Hunter aircraft will check the cyclone
in a few hours.

Some fluctuations in strength due to a potential eyewall replacement
are possible during the next 12 to 24 hours or so. After that time
very strong southwesterly wind shear should impact the hurricane
resulting in weakening. In 72 hours or earlier, the global models
show the system merging with a frontal zone, so the NHC forecast
calls for extratropical transition by that time. The official
intensity forecast follows the corrected consensus HCCA and is not
very different from the previous one.

Humberto is accelerating, and satellite fixes yield an initial
motion toward the east-northeast or 065 degrees at 14 kt. Humberto
is located at the base of a strong mid-to upper-level trough, and
the hurricane will likely interact with this amplifying trough. This
should force Humberto to turn toward the northeast and north-
northeast at a faster forward speed in 24-36 hours. Later in the
forecast period, the track guidance indicates that Humberto will
turn back toward the east-northeast while becoming embedded within
the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC track forecast is very similar
to the previous one and is in the middle of the guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda tonight and Thursday
morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected to begin later
today. Residents there should follow advice given by local
officials.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding tonight and Thursday along the southern coast of Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 31.7N 69.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 32.7N 67.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 34.8N 63.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 37.5N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 40.0N 59.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 43.0N 53.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0600Z 45.5N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0600Z 52.1N 23.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-18 08:49

WTNT34 KNHC 180846
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 18 2019

...HUMBERTO'S EYE CROSSING A NOAA BUOY...
...WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE IN BERMUDA LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.7N 69.6W
ABOUT 285 MI...455 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located
by satellite near latitude 31.7 North, longitude 69.6 West. Humberto
has increased its forward speed and is moving toward the east-
northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). This general motion with an
additional increase in forward speed is expected through early
Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward motion
through Friday. On the forecast track, the core of Humberto is
expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda later
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful
hurricane through early Thursday. A steady weakening trend should
begin later on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A NOAA buoy reported a wind gust to 89 mph (144 km/h) and
a minimum pressure of 961 mb (28.38 inches) as the eye of Humberto
was approaching.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda tonight
and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds are expected to
reach tropical-storm strength later this afternoon, making outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda today. Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-18 08:48

WTNT24 KNHC 180846
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0900 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 69.6W AT 18/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 330SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.7N 69.6W AT 18/0900Z
AT 18/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 70.3W

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 32.7N 67.2W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.8N 63.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.5N 61.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 40.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 150SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 43.0N 53.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 45.5N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 52.1N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.7N 69.6W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 18/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-18 05:34

WTNT34 KNHC 180531
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
200 AM EDT Wed Sep 18 2019

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO BERMUDA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.5N 70.4W
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located
near latitude 31.5 North, longitude 70.4 West. Humberto is moving
toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through
early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to north-northeastward
motion through Friday. On the forecast track, the core of Humberto
is expected to pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful
hurricane through early Thursday. A steady weakening trend should
begin later on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175
miles (280 km). NOAA Buoy 41048 located just to the east of Humberto
recently reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind
gust of 63 mph (101 km/h) and pressure falling rapidly.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Wednesday night and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical-storm strength by Wednesday
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Wednesday. Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-18 02:58

WTNT44 KNHC 180256
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Humberto has an impressive presentation on satellite images, with a
large 30-40 n mi diameter eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops.
An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating
the hurricane found SFMR-observed surface winds of 98 kt and peak
700-mb flight-level winds of 111 kt. Based on these observations,
the current intensity was set at 100 kt, which made the system a
major hurricane. Some fluctuations in strength due to a potential
eyewall replacement are possible during the next 24 hours or so, but
strong southwesterly shear should result in a weakening trend to
commence on Thursday. In 72 hours, the global models show the
system merging with a frontal zone so the NHC forecast calls for
extratropical transition by that time. The official intensity
forecast follows the model consensus.

Center fixes from the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the motion
continues to be east-northeastward or 075/10 kt. Humberto is
likely to turn toward the northeast and north-northeast at a faster
forward speed in 24-36 hours as it interacts with a strong mid-level
trough at mid-latitudes to its north and northeast. Later in the
forecast period, the track guidance indicates that Humberto will
turn back toward the east-northeast as it moves in tandem with the
mid-latitude trough over the north Atlantic. The official forecast
is in close agreement with the simple and corrected consensus
models, TVCA and HCCA.


Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda Wednesday night and
Thursday morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected by
Wednesday afternoon. Residents there should follow advice given by
local officials.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding Wednesday night and Thursday along the southern coast of
Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 31.3N 71.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 32.0N 68.9W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 33.4N 65.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 38.6N 60.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 42.5N 56.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 22/0000Z 44.0N 44.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 23/0000Z 49.0N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-18 02:58

WTNT34 KNHC 180255
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO BRING STRONG WINDS TO BERMUDA BY LATE
TOMORROW...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.3N 71.0W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.09 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 31.3 North, longitude 71.0 West. Humberto is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward to
north-northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast track,
the center of Humberto is expected to pass just to the northwest and
north of Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely
during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a powerful
hurricane through early Thursday. A steady weakening trend should
begin later on Thursday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb (28.09 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Wednesday night and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical-storm strength by Wednesday
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
through Thursday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches with
maximum amounts of 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Wednesday. Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-18 02:57

WTNT24 KNHC 180255
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0300 UTC WED SEP 18 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 71.0W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 951 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..190NE 230SE 270SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 71.0W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.2N 71.6W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 32.0N 68.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 33.4N 65.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 36.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 38.6N 60.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 42.5N 56.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 44.0N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 49.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 71.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 18/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-17 23:54

WTNT34 KNHC 172352
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
800 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A MAJOR HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.2N 71.6W
ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...951 MB...28.08 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 31.2 North,
longitude 71.6 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast
near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual
increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday,
followed by a northeastward motion through Friday. On the forecast
track, the center of Humberto is expected to pass just to the
northwest and north of Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph (185 km/h)
with higher gusts. Humberto is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity
are likely during the next day or so, but Humberto should remain a
powerful hurricane through Thursday.

Humberto is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is 951 mb (28.08 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Wednesday night and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical-storm strength by Wednesday
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning Wednesday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
and isolated maximum amounts near 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Wednesday. Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and breaking waves could raise water
levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
southern coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-17 20:48

WTNT44 KNHC 172046
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

Humberto's satellite appearance has improved somewhat since the
previous advisory, with the eye clearing out and becoming more
distinct. This has resulted in satellite subjective intensity
estimates increasing to T5.5/102 kt from TAFB and SAB, with
objective ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS increasing to T5.9/112 kt.
However, during the past 36 h or so, the satellite estimates have
been running higher than the actual surface winds by about 10-15
percent. A 1425Z ASCAT-C overpass indicated surface winds of 72 kt
in the southeastern eyewall, which is significant given that the
scatterometer is well undersampling the actual peak winds due to the
25-km footprint of the instrument. The intensity has been increased
to 90 kt based on the clearing and warming of the eye and allowing
for some overestimation by the satellite agencies. The scatterometer
wind data also showed that Humberto's wind field has expanded more
since the earlier recon wind data, thus some additional adjustments
were made to all of the wind radii in this advisory.

Humberto continues to move east-northeastward or 075/10 kt. The
large hurricane remains on track, and the latest NHC model guidance
remains tightly packed around the previous advisory track. Thus, no
significant changes were made to the previous forecast track through
48 hours. By 72 hours and beyond, however, the models are now in
better agreement on Humberto accelerating and moving faster toward
the northeast through 96 hours as an extratropical cyclone, followed
by a turn toward the east-northeast on day 5. The official forecast
track is based on a blend of the consensus models TVCN, HCCA, and
FSSE, and shows the center of Humberto passing just to the northwest
and north of Bermuda between 24-36 hours or late Wednesday night.

The latest SHIPS intensity guidance shows near 30 kt of deep-layer
vertical shear allegedly affecting Humberto, which obviously is a
significant overestimate based on the presence of a well-defined eye
and smooth CDO feature in visible satellite imagery. Given the
likely overestimation of the shear values, Humberto is expected to
strengthen to major hurricane status in the next 24 h. Thereafter,
Humberto is forecast to steadily weaken due to cold upwelling as the
hurricane moves over cooler waters, and into an environment
consisting of very strong shear exceeding 40-50 kt and more stable,
drier air. However, the usual rate of weakening due to the strong
shear conditions is expected to be tempered by the increasing
baroclinic forcing in the right-rear entrance region of a strong
jetstream wind maximum. The NHC intensity closely follows a blend of
the intensity consensus models IVCN, HCCA, and FSSE.

Key Messages:

1. Hurricane conditions are expected in Bermuda Wednesday night and
Thursday morning, with tropical-storm-force winds expected by
Wednesday afternoon. Residents there should follow advice given by
local officials.

2. Storm surge and dangerous breaking waves could cause coastal
flooding Wednesday night and Thursday along the southern coast of
Bermuda.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2100Z 31.0N 72.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 31.5N 70.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 32.6N 67.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 34.6N 63.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 37.4N 61.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 41.5N 57.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 43.5N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1800Z 46.0N 34.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-17 20:44

WTNT34 KNHC 172042
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...HUMBERTO A LITTLE STRONGER AS THE LARGE HURRICANE MOVES CLOSER
TO BERMUDA...
...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.0N 72.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Hurricane Watch and
Tropical Storm Warning with a Hurricane Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 31.0 North, longitude 72.3 West. Humberto is
moving toward the east-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday, followed by a northeastward motion through
Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to
pass just to the northwest and north of Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 36
hours, and Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight or
on Wednesday.

Humberto is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Bermuda by
Wednesday night and continue into early Thursday morning. Winds
are expected to first reach tropical-storm strength by Wednesday
afternoon, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to
completion.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
and isolated maximum amounts near 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Wednesday. Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.

STORM SURGE: Storm surge and wave setup could raise water levels by
1 to 3 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate southern
coast of Bermuda.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-17 20:44

WTNT24 KNHC 172041
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED THE HURRICANE WATCH AND
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 72.3W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 210SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 72.3W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 72.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 31.5N 70.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 32.6N 67.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.6N 63.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 37.4N 61.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 170SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 41.5N 57.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 43.5N 48.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 46.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 72.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 18/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-17 17:45

WTNT34 KNHC 171743
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 20A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...HUMBERTO'S EYE GETTING BETTER DEFINED AS THE HURRICANE MOVES
CLOSER TO BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 72.9W
ABOUT 490 MI...785 KM WSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Humberto was located by satellite near latitude 30.8 North,
longitude 72.9 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast
near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual
increase in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. On
the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to pass
just to the north of Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours,
and Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight or
Wednesday morning.

Humberto is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are expected over Bermuda by
Wednesday afternoon and continuing into Thursday morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible over Bermuda Wednesday night into Thursday
morning.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
and isolated maximum amounts near 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Wednesday. Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-17 15:00

WTNT44 KNHC 171458
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that investigated
Humberto earlier this morning found 700-mb flight-level winds of 96
kt and 82-kt surface winds on a dropsonde in the southwestern
quadrant, and 81-kt SFMR surface winds in the northwestern quadrant.
More importantly, the wind data indicate that Humberto's wind field
has expanded significantly and is becoming asymmetric with the
largest wind radii now located in the southern semicircle. The
aircraft also measured a central pressure of 961 mb, down 18 mb
since this time yesterday. The central pressure typically
corresponds to an intensity of around 100 kt, but the expansion of
the wind field has resulted in little increase in the eyewall wind
field for now. Based on these data, the initial intensity has been
increased to 85 kt.

Humberto has maintained an east-northeastward motion of 075/07 kt.
The hurricane is forecast to remain embedded within the mid-latitude
westerlies though the forecast period. A deep-layer trough is
forecast to dig southward to the west of Humberto in the 24-48 hour
period, causing the hurricane to gradually gain latitude and pass
just to the northwest of Bermuda in around 36 hours. The models are
in excellent agreement on this developing track scenario and are
tightly clustered around the previous advisory track. However, the
recent expansion of the wind field and the expected additional
increase in the wind on the southeast side of Humberto's circulation
will result in the island being in near-hurricane-force conditions.
By 72 hours and beyond, Humberto will accelerate northeastward
over the cold waters of the north Atlantic and interact with a
strong frontal system, resulting in the transition into a large
extratropical low. The official track forecast is similar to the
previous advisory track through 48 hours, and then is a little
faster in the 72-120 hour period, close to a blend of the various
consensus models.

Due to the expansion of Humberto's wind field and large 35-40-n mi
wide eye, only modest strengthening is expected during the next 36
hours or so. Although not explicitly shown, Humberto could still
become a major hurricane between 24-36 hours when the cyclone will
be located over the warmest water of about 29C. Thereafter,
gradual wakening is forecast due to cooler waters and strong
southwesterly vertical wind shear in excess of 40 kt. However, the
typical rate of weakening due to such hostile shear conditions will
be tempered owing to the increasing baroclinic forcing in the
right-rear entrance region of a polar jet maximum. The new intensity
forecast is nearly identical to the previous advisory, and follows a
blend of the consensus models HCCA and FSSE.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds are expected to reach Bermuda by
Wednesday afternoon, with hurricane conditions possible Wednesday
night and Thursday morning. Residents there should follow advice
given by local officials.

2. Large swells will increase along the coast of Bermuda by
Wednesday. Dangerous breaking waves, especially along south-facing
beaches, could cause coastal flooding Wednesday night and Thursday.

3. Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days, creating life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/1500Z 30.7N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 18/0000Z 31.1N 72.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 18/1200Z 31.8N 69.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 19/0000Z 33.1N 66.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 19/1200Z 35.3N 62.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 20/1200Z 39.6N 58.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 21/1200Z 43.0N 52.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 22/1200Z 44.5N 40.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-17 14:55

WTNT34 KNHC 171453
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES THAT
HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO GROW LARGER...
...HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.7N 73.5W
ABOUT 525 MI...845 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Hurricane Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, in this case within 24 to 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located by an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 30.7 North, longitude 73.5 West. Humberto is moving toward
the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general motion
with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through early
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected
to pass just to the north of Bermuda Wednesday night.

Data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds remain near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts.
However, some strengthening is forecast during the next 36 hours,
and Humberto could become a major hurricane late tonight or
Wednesday morning.

Humberto is a large hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward
up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force
winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are likely over Bermuda by
Wednesday afternoon and continuing into Thursday morning. Hurricane
conditions are possible over Bermuda Wednesday night into Thursday
morning.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 2 to 4 inches
and isolated maximum amounts near 6 inches expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Wednesday. Dangerous breaking waves, especially
along south-facing beaches, will be possible Wednesday night into
Thursday, and could cause coastal flooding.

Swells will continue to affect the northwestern Bahamas and the
southeastern coast of the United States from east-central Florida to
North Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-17 14:55

WTNT24 KNHC 171453
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36
HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 73.5W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 961 MB
EYE DIAMETER 35 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 50SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT.......130NE 150SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 73.5W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 73.9W

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.1N 72.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.8N 69.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 33.1N 66.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...140NE 160SE 120SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 35.3N 62.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 80SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 160SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 39.6N 58.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...160NE 170SE 130SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 43.0N 52.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 44.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 73.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-17 11:59

WTNT34 KNHC 171157
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HUMBERTO A LITTLE
STRONGER AND LARGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 74.0W
ABOUT 555 MI...895 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...961 MB...28.38 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has replaced the Tropical Storm Watch
with a Tropical Storm Warning for Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected within the warning area, generally within 36 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the large and ragged eye of Hurricane
Humberto was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 74.0 West.
Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h).
This general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is
expected through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Humberto is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night.

Data from the Hurricane Hunters aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (160 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next
36 hours, and Humberto is expected to become a major hurricane by
tonight or Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by the reconnaissance
aircraft was 961 mb (28.38 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are likely over Bermuda by late
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Wednesday.

Swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern
coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North
Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-17 08:47

WTNT44 KNHC 170845
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

The cloud pattern continues to be rather impressive, but the eye
is ragged looking and less defined than a few hours ago. Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB have not changed significantly and
support an initial intensity of 80 kt. Another reconnaissance plane
will check the hurricane's structure in the morning.

Humberto is expected to continue to moving over warm waters for
the next few days, and intensity guidance as well as global models
strengthen the hurricane a little more. On this basis, the NHC
forecast calls for the system to become a major hurricane in about
24 to 36 hours. After that time, upper-level winds are expected to
be hostile, resulting in weakening. By day 5, if not sooner, the
cyclone should become embedded within a frontal zone and begin to
acquire extratropical characteristics at that time.

Satellite fixes indicate that the initial motion continues toward
the east-northeast or 075 degrees at 7 kt. Humberto is well embedded
within the mid-latitude westerlies, and this general motion with
a turn to the northeast and an increase in forward speed is forecast
for the next 5 days. Track models are in good agreement with this
solution, and the NHC forecast remains in the middle of the guidance
envelope. It is also very similar to the previous official
forecast.

It is still too early to give a good estimate as to how close the
core of the hurricane will come to Bermuda. Interests should not
focus on the exact forecast track; only a slight deviation to the
right could bring the center near or over the island.

Large swells from Humberto will affect Bermuda by Wednesday and
will be affecting portions of the northwestern Bahamas and
southeastern United States coast during the next couple of days.
These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and
life-threatening rip currents. See products issued by your local
weather office and the Bermuda Weather Service for additional
information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0900Z 30.6N 74.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 18/0600Z 31.6N 70.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/1800Z 32.5N 68.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/0600Z 34.0N 64.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 20/0600Z 38.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 21/0600Z 42.0N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/0600Z 44.0N 45.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-17 08:46

WTNT34 KNHC 170844
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...LARGE HUMBERTO FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN LATER TODAY...
...ANOTHER AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SCHEDULED TO REACH THE
HURRICANE IN A FEW HOURS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.6N 74.3W
ABOUT 570 MI...920 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the large and ragged eye of Hurricane
Humberto was located near latitude 30.6 North, longitude 74.3 West.
Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h).
This general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is
expected through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center
of Humberto is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 36
hours and Humberto is expected to become a major hurricane
by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible over Bermuda by late
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Wednesday.

Swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern
coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North
Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office
and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-17 08:46

WTNT24 KNHC 170843
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 74.3W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 74.3W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 74.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 31.6N 70.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 32.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 34.0N 64.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 38.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 42.0N 55.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 44.0N 45.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 74.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-17 05:33

WTNT34 KNHC 170531
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 17 2019

...LARGE HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.5N 74.7W
ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located
near latitude 30.5 North, longitude 74.7 West. Humberto is moving
toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). This general motion
with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through early
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected
to approach Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday night or
Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible over Bermuda by late
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Tuesday night.

Swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern
coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North
Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-17 02:35

WTNT44 KNHC 170232
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

Humberto continues to have an impressive overall appearance on
satellite imagery, although the eye is a bit ragged looking.
Earlier radar images from the NOAA P-3 aircraft showed that the
eyewall was somewhat fragmented. A last-minute observation of
700-mb flight-level winds of 86 kt from the Air Force Hurricane
Hunters, outbound to the west of the eye, is roughly consistent with
a current intensity estimate of 80 kt. Humberto should continue to
traverse warm waters for the next couple of days, and much of the
numerical guidance shows intensification in the short term.
Therefore the official forecast, like the previous one, continues to
call for the system to become a major hurricane within the next
day or so. This is similar to the intensity model consensus. By 48
hours, the shear should become very strong and a weakening trend
will likely be underway. By day 5, if not sooner, the ECMWF global
model shows the system embedded within a frontal zone so Humberto
is forecast to be extratropical at that time.

The eye has been wobbling over the past few hours, but a smoothed
estimate of the motion is just north of east or 075/7 kt. Humberto
should continue to move along the northern side of a subtropical
ridge with a gradual increase in forward speed for the next couple
of days. After that, the hurricane should turn northeastward and
north-northeastward with some additional acceleration in response
to a strong mid-tropospheric trough near Atlantic Canada. Around
the end of the forecast period, the global models differ
significantly as to how far north into the Atlantic Humberto will
move. The official forecast leans toward the ECMWF and corrected
consensus, HCCA, guidance.

It is still too early to give a good estimate as to how close the
core of the hurricane will come to Bermuda. Interests should not
focus on the exact forecast track; only a slight deviation to the
right could bring the center near or over the island.

Large swells from Humberto will affect Bermuda by late Tuesday, and
affect portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern United
States coast during the next couple of days. These swells are
expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening
rip currents. See products issued by your local weather office and
the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/0300Z 30.3N 75.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/1200Z 30.7N 74.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 18/0000Z 31.1N 72.2W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/1200Z 31.6N 70.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 19/0000Z 32.8N 66.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 20/0000Z 37.1N 60.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 21/0000Z 40.5N 58.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 22/0000Z 43.0N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-17 02:34

WTNT34 KNHC 170232
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 75.1W
ABOUT 625 MI...1000 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 75 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 30.3 North, longitude 75.1 West. Humberto is
moving toward the east-northeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). This
general motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected
through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Humberto is expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,
and Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tuesday
night or Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible over Bermuda by late
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning Tuesday, with rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches
expected.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Tuesday night.

Swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern
coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North
Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-17 02:34

WTNT24 KNHC 170232
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 17 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 75.1W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 75 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 75.1W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 75.5W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.7N 74.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.1N 72.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.6N 70.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 32.8N 66.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 37.1N 60.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 40.5N 58.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 43.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.3N 75.1W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-16 23:50

WTNT34 KNHC 162348
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 17A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

...HUMBERTO LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE WITHIN THE NEXT DAY
OR SO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.3N 75.5W
ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Humberto was located
by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 30.3 North,
longitude 75.5 West. Humberto is moving toward the east-northeast
near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion with a gradual increase
in forward speed is expected through early Thursday. On the
forecast track, the center of Humberto is expected to approach
Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next 48 hours, and Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane
by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150
miles (240 km).

The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force Hurricane
Hunter observations is 966 mb (28.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical Storm conditions are possible over Bermuda by late
Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning late Tuesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Tuesday night.

Swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern
coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North
Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-16 20:53

WTNT44 KNHC 162051
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Humberto this
afternoon found peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 78 kt in the
western quadrant, along with SFMR surface winds of 71-72 kt, which
is an increase in the winds in this part of storm since the earlier
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance flight. The NOAA aircraft also
measured a central pressure of 972 mb, down 4 mb from the previous
flight. A combination of subjective and objective satellite
intensity estimates of 90 kt and the aircraft data support an
initial intensity of 80 kt.

The initial motion estimate remains east-northeastward or 070/06 kt.
Humberto made a wobble to the north during the past few hours, but
has now wobbled toward the east, which is an indication that the
hurricane's inner core is continuing to consolidate and contract.
That being said, the latest model guidance is in even better
agreement with and more convergent about the previous forecast
track. Thus no significant changed were required through 72 hours.
Thereafter, the models are also now in better agreement that
Humberto will not slow down as much as previously expected, and the
hurricane is forecast to gradually lift out and accelerate to the
northeast on days 4 and 5 when Humberto is well to the northeast of
Bermuda. No significant track changes were made to the previous
advisory track through 48 hours, with the track having been nudged
southward slightly on days 3-5 in agreement with the consensus
models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Humberto has continued to strengthen at a rate of 20 kt per 24
hours, and I see no physical reasons why this trend should not
continue for another 24-36 hours. By 48 hours and beyond, the
hurricane will be entering the right-rear quadrant of a strong
upper-level jet maximum that could briefly impart some additional
baroclinic forcing on the cyclone, helping it to maintain its
intensity or at least slow down the weakening process. By day 3 and
beyond, however, the wind shear becomes prohibitively hostile at
more than 50 kt, which should cause the central deep convection to
erode, resulting in significant weakening. On day 5, extratropical
transition over the colder north Atlantic waters is forecast to
begin as Humberto interacts and possibly merges with a strong cold
front.

Large swells from Humberto will affect Bermuda by late Tuesday, and
affect portions of the northwestern Bahamas and southeastern United
States coast during the next couple of days. These swells are
expected to produce dangerous surf conditions and life-threatening
rip currents. See products issued by your local weather office and
the Bermuda Weather Service for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/2100Z 30.2N 75.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 17/0600Z 30.4N 74.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 17/1800Z 30.8N 73.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/0600Z 31.2N 71.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/1800Z 32.0N 68.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 19/1800Z 36.0N 61.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 20/1800Z 40.1N 59.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 21/1800Z 41.7N 54.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-16 20:50

WTNT34 KNHC 162047
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND HUMBERTO STRONGER...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.2N 75.9W
ABOUT 670 MI...1080 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.70 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Bermuda Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
Bermuda.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Bermuda

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of the eye of Hurricane
Humberto was located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near
latitude 30.2 North, longitude 75.9 West. Humberto is moving toward
the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general motion with a
gradual increase in forward speed is expected through early
Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is
expected to approach Bermuda Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 90 mph (150 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the
next 48 hours, and Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane
by Tuesday night or Wednesday morning.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on reports from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 972 mb (28.70 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda
beginning late Tuesday.

SURF: Large swells generated by Humberto will increase along the
coast of Bermuda by Tuesday night.

Swells will affect the northwestern Bahamas and the southeastern
coast of the United States from east-central Florida to North
Carolina during the next couple of days.

These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office and the Bermuda Weather Service.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-16 20:49

WTNT24 KNHC 162046
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
2100 UTC MON SEP 16 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 75.9W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 75.9W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 76.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.4N 74.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.8N 73.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 31.2N 71.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 32.0N 68.7W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 36.0N 61.3W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 40.1N 59.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 41.7N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 75.9W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 17/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-16 14:52

WTNT44 KNHC 161450
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Humberto
this morning found peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 88 kt in the
southeastern and northeastern quadrants, along with SFMR surface
winds of 72-73 kt in the northeastern quadrant and a minimum
pressure of 978 mb. These data support an intensity of 75 kt.

The initial motion estimate is east-northeastward or 070/06 kt.
Humberto is now solidly located north of the Bermuda-Azores ridge
axis, and a continued east-northeastward motion is expected for the
48 hours or so. Thereafter, a large deep-layer trough is forecast to
dig southward out of Atlantic Canada and the Canadian Maritimes to
the west of Humberto, forcing the hurricane to gradually lift out
to the northeast. The exact timing that the trough begins to affect
Humberto's motion will be critical in determining how close the
hurricane will come to Bermuda. The latest model guidance is in
better agreement and more tightly packed than previous runs,
suggesting that the poleward turn will occur at least 100 n mi west
of the island. By days 4 and 5, however, the model guidance becomes
strongly divergent with a large spread of about 1000 n mi on day 5,
resulting in lower-than-normal confidence in the track forecast on
those days. The new NHC track foreast was nudged only slightly
southward through 48 hours, and lies close to a blend of the
consensus models TVCN, NOAA-HCCA, and FSSE.

Humberto has been strengthening at a rate of 20 kt per 24 hours
since this time yesterday, and that trend is expected to continue
for the next day or so given the warm water beneath the hurricane
and a continued favorable upper-level outflow pattern. The hurricane
is expected to peak as a major hurricane in 36-48 hours when the
cyclone will be located over SSTs of about 29 deg C and moving into
the right-rear quadrant of a strong upper-level jet maximum.
Thereafter, strong southwesterly vertical wind shear is expected to
gradually diminish convection around the center despite the
impressive baroclinic/dynamically driven pressure falls, which will
mainly act to spread out the surface wind field rather than
intensify the cyclone. Humberto is forecast to interact with an
approaching cold front on day 5, resulting in extratropical
transition over the colder Atlantic waters north of the Gulf Stream.
The official intensity forecast is just an update of the previous
advisory and now shows Humberto reaching major hurricane status,
similar to the HCCA, FSSE, and HWRF models. Since Humberto's wind
field is expected to expand significantly by day 2, a Tropical
Storm Watch for Bermuda will likely be required on the 500 pm EDT
advisory.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/1500Z 29.9N 76.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 17/0000Z 30.1N 75.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 17/1200Z 30.4N 74.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 18/0000Z 30.7N 72.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 18/1200Z 31.3N 70.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 19/1200Z 33.7N 65.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 20/1200Z 37.9N 60.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 21/1200Z 40.8N 56.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-16 14:52

WTNT34 KNHC 161450
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

...HUMBERTO GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COASTLINE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 76.5W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...978 MB...28.88 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of
Humberto since a Tropical Storm Watch will likely be required for
Bermuda later this afternoon.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 29.9 North, longitude 76.5 West. Humberto is
moving toward the east-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). This general
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected through
early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto is
forecast to approach Bermuda Wednesday night.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and
Humberto could become a major hurricane by Tuesday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The minimum central pressure recently measured by reconnaissance
aircraft was 978 mb (28.88 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer bands associated with Humberto are expected to
produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in the central
Bahamas, with isolated storm total rainfall amounts of 6 inches.

Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning on
Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-16 14:52

WTNT24 KNHC 161450
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
1500 UTC MON SEP 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN AND AROUND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
HUMBERTO SINCE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR
BERMUDA LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 76.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 978 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 120SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.9N 76.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.8N 76.8W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.1N 75.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.4N 74.4W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.7N 72.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.3N 70.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 33.7N 65.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 130SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 37.9N 60.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 40.8N 56.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.9N 76.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-16 08:49

WTNT44 KNHC 160847
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

The satellite presentation of the hurricane has continued to
improve overnight, with the center embedded within a fairly
symmetric area of cold cloud tops. Although no eye is evident in
conventional satellite imagery, a ragged eye could be seen in
long-range NWS Doppler radar data from Melbourne, Florida early
in the night. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and
UW/CIMSS all support an intensity of 75 kt, and that is used as the
initial wind speed for this advisory. An Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate Humberto this
morning, and should provide a better assessment of the storm's
strength.

Humberto is likely to continue intensifying during the next day or
so while it moves over the warm waters of the Gulf stream and the
shear is not expected to be prohibitive. The updated NHC forecast
depicts a faster rate of strengthening over the first 36 hours
than before, and is at the upper end of the guidance through that
time. By 48 hours, increasing westerly shear should slow the
intensification process, but baroclinic forcing caused by a
mid-latitude trough is likely to help the cyclone remain strong
until it begins its extratropical transition later in the period.

Humberto is moving northeastward or 050/3 kt. The hurricane is
forecast to move slowly east-northeastward during the next 24
hours, around the northwestern portion of a subtropical ridge.
After that time, Humberto should continue on an east-northeastward
heading, but at a slightly faster forward speed as a broad trough
becomes established over the western Atlantic. Later in the period,
a strong shortwave trough is forecast to dig southward which should
cause Humberto to lift northeastward. The track guidance is in good
agreement through 72 hours, and the confidence in that portion of
the forecast is quite high. After that time, the forecast
confidence decreases quite a bit as the model spread becomes
unusually large. This is the due to differs in how Humberto
interacts with the aforementioned trough. The GFS and HWRF shows
Humberto getting caught by the trough as it cuts-off over the
western Atlantic, while the ECMWF and UKMET show a more progressive
solution, and take Humberto northeastward over the north Atlantic
ahead of the trough. Given the model spread of more than 1000 n mi
at day 5, the NHC track foreast remains close to the multi-model
consensus, but confidence in the 4- and 5-day forecast is rather
low.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0900Z 29.7N 77.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 16/1800Z 30.0N 76.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 17/0600Z 30.3N 75.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 17/1800Z 30.6N 73.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 18/0600Z 31.0N 72.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 19/0600Z 33.0N 66.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 20/0600Z 37.0N 62.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 21/0600Z 40.0N 58.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-16 08:48

WTNT34 KNHC 160846
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Mon Sep 16 2019

...HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...LARGE SWELLS AFFECTING MUCH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COASTLINE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 77.3W
ABOUT 760 MI...1225 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of
Humberto.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located near latitude 29.7 North, longitude 77.3 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h). A turn toward the
east-northeast is expected later today. An east-northeastward
motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected tonight
through early Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of
Humberto is forecast to approach Bermuda late Wednesday or
Wednesday night.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next couple of days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer rain bands associated with Humberto are expected
to produce an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in the northwest
Bahamas, with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches. Humberto
may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning late Wednesday
or Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-16 08:48

WTNT24 KNHC 160846
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0900 UTC MON SEP 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN AND AROUND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
HUMBERTO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 77.3W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.7N 77.3W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 77.5W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.0N 76.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.3N 75.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.6N 73.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 31.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 33.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 150SE 120SW 210NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 37.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 40.0N 58.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.7N 77.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-16 02:39

WTNT44 KNHC 160237
TCDAT4

Hurricane Humberto Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

700 mb flight-level wind data from a NOAA P-3 Hurricane Hunter
aircraft investigating Humberto indicate that the system's intensity
is now 65 kt. This is also supported by Dvorak classifications
from TAFB and SAB, and it makes the cyclone the third hurricane of
the 2019 Atlantic season. Humberto's cloud pattern has continued to
gradually become better organized, with increasing coverage and
intensity of deep convection, and pronounced upper-level outflow
over the eastern semicircle of the circulation. The hurricane is
expected to traverse warm Gulf Stream waters for the next several
days, but the dynamical models forecast a significant increase in
southwesterly vertical shear through 72 hours. In spite of the
latter unfavorable factor, the numerical guidance generally shows
intensification. This is likely at least partially due to some
baroclinic forcing caused by a strong mid-latitude trough to the
north and northeast of Humberto. The official forecast is a blend
of the latest simple and corrected consensus models and is very
similar to the previous one.

Humberto continues to move very slowly and the latest aircraft and
satellite center fixes indicate that the motion is now
northeastward or 040/3 kt. The hurricane has just rounded the
western periphery of a subtropical anticyclone and steering
currents are likely to remain weak for the next couple of days. An
east-northeastward track with a very gradual increase in forward
speed is expected for much of the period while Humberto moves
between the subtropical high and stronger westerlies associated with
the trough to the north. The new NHC track forecast is a little
slower than the previous one in 4-5 days, but not as slow as the
latest ECMWF and GFS global model runs.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 16/0300Z 29.4N 77.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 16/1200Z 29.8N 77.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 17/0000Z 30.1N 76.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 17/1200Z 30.5N 74.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 18/0000Z 30.8N 73.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 19/0000Z 31.8N 68.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 20/0000Z 35.0N 63.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 21/0000Z 39.0N 60.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-16 02:38

WTNT34 KNHC 160236
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Humberto Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

...HUMBERTO BECOMES A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 77.6W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of
Humberto.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Humberto was
located by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft near latitude 29.4
North, longitude 77.6 West. Humberto is moving toward the northeast
near 3 mph (6 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through
Monday morning, followed by a turn toward the east-northeast with a
gradual increase in forward speed over the next 3 days.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is forecast during the
next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles
(240 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer rain bands associated with Humberto are expected
to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in the northwest
Bahamas, with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches. Humberto
may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning late Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas and the southeastern coast of the United States from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-16 02:38

WTNT24 KNHC 160236
TCMAT4

HURRICANE HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0300 UTC MON SEP 16 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN AND AROUND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
HUMBERTO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 77.6W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 130SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 77.6W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 77.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.8N 77.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.1N 76.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.5N 74.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.8N 73.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.8N 68.3W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 35.0N 63.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 39.0N 60.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 77.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-15 20:53

WTNT44 KNHC 152051
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Humberto's convective structure continues to improve in satellite
imagery and reflectivity data from the Melbourne NOAA Doppler
weather radar, including intermittent appearances of a closed eye.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft investigating Humberto
this afternoon found SFMR winds of 58-59 kt in the northeastern
quadrant outside of the heaviest rain areas, and that the pressure
had fallen 4 mb during the past 2 hours, now down to 989 mb. Based
on these data, the intensity has been increased to 60 kt.

The initial motion estimate is now 360/05 kt. There are no
significant changes to the previous forecast track or reasoning.
Humberto is likely located on or near an east-west oriented ridge
axis, and a sharp turn toward the northeast is likely during the
next 6-12 hours. The latest NHC model guidance remains highly
convergent on the previous forecast track and continues to show the
cyclone gradually being accelerated toward the northeast and
east-northeast during the 24-120 hour period. The large deep-layer
trough and associated cold front that will be digging southward out
of eastern Canada and the northeastern United States is forecast by
the ECMWF model to develop a cutoff low over the northwestern
Atlantic that results in some binary interaction with Humberto on
day 5. However, this is a new development and is considered to be an
outlier scenario at this time. The new forecast track is similar to
the previous advisory and lies close to the TVCN and HCCA consensus
track models.

Likewise, there is no significant change to previous intensity
forecast. All of the available model guidance continues to support
steady strengthening for the 3 days. In 48-72 hours, Humberto is
forecast to be moving into the right-rear quadrant of a strong,
anticyclonically curved 300-200 mb jet maximum. The associated
strong baroclinic/dynamical forcing is expected to produce strong
pressure falls and strengthening despite the hostile vertical wind
shear conditions of at least 30 kt. On days 4 and 5, the combination
of slightly cooler waters, drier and more stable air, and much
stronger vertical shear of 40-50 kt should cause steady weakening
despite the favorable jetstream dynamics. The previous NHC intensity
forecast remains unchanged, and continues to show Humberto reaching
its peak intensity in 72 hours, coincident with the warmest
sea-surface temperatures and strongest jetstream dynamical forcing.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/2100Z 29.3N 78.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 16/0600Z 29.8N 77.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1800Z 30.1N 76.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0600Z 30.4N 75.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1800Z 30.7N 73.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 18/1800Z 31.7N 68.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 19/1800Z 35.0N 62.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 20/1800Z 39.6N 56.1W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-15 20:52

WTNT34 KNHC 152050
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

...HUMBERTO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...RIP CURRENT THREAT WILL INCREASE ALONG THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST THROUGH TUESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 78.0W
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in and around Bermuda should monitor the progress of
Humberto.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located by reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA Doppler radars near
latitude 29.3 North, longitude 78.0 West. Humberto is moving toward
the north near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue through tonight. A sharp turn to the northeast is forecast
to occur Monday morning or afternoon, followed by a motion toward
the northeast and east-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Humberto will continue to move away
from the Bahamas and remain well offshore of the southeastern coast
of the United States through Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Further strengthening is expected during the next
few days, and Humberto is expected to become a hurricane later
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is estimated
to be 989 mb (29.21 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Outer rain bands associated with Humberto are expected
to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in the central and
northern Bahamas, with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches.
Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning late
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, and the southeastern coast of the United States from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-15 20:51

WTNT24 KNHC 152049
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN AND AROUND BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
HUMBERTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 78.0W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 130SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 78.0W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 78.0W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.8N 77.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.1N 76.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.4N 75.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.7N 73.6W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 31.7N 68.9W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 35.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 39.6N 56.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 78.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-15 14:56

WTNT44 KNHC 151454
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Visible and passive microwave satellite imagery indicate that
Humberto's inner-core region has improved markedly since early this
morning, including the development of a small but ragged mid-level
eye. In addition, significant dry air entrainment that has been
plaguing the cyclone since its formation appears to have abated
based on the recent development of deep convection in the dry slot
located in the southern semicircle of Humberto's circulation.
Anticyclonic outflow has also been increasing in all quadrants,
along with a hint of cloud-filled eye in recent visible imagery.
Buoy 41010 located just west of the center recently reported a
pressure of 1001.8 mb and 41-kt winds at 4-meters elevation. The
initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt based on a Dvorak
intensity estimate of T3.5/55 kt from TAFB. AN Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft will reconnoiter Humberto this afternoon,
providing more detailed information on the cyclone's intensity.

The initial motion estimate is 350/06 kt, based mainly on microwave
satellite fix positions. NHC model guidance remains in excellent
agreement on Humberto moving slowly northward through a break in the
subtropical ridge today and tonight, then making a sharp turn toward
the northeast on Monday when the cyclone passes north of the narrow
east-west oriented ridge axis. On days 2-5, the tropical cyclone is
forecast to gradually accelerate toward the northeast and
east-northeast under the influence of increasing westerlies ahead of
a deepening mid-latitude trough forecast to dig southeastward out of
Canada and into the extreme northwestern Atlantic Ocean. The new
official forecast track is very similar to the previous advisory
track, and lies close to a blend of the tightly packed consensus
track models.

Humberto now appears to be well on its way to becoming a hurricane
fairly soon based on the newly formed central dense overcast and
mid-level eye feature. Although the large-scale shear is fairly
large in the SHIPS intensity models, the shear directly over the
center of Humberto is forecast to remain low for the next 48 hours
or so, which should allow for steady strengthening. By 72 hours, the
cyclone is forecast to be situated in the right-rear quadrant of a
strong, anticyclonically curved jet maximum. The associated
upper-level divergence is expected to induce strong pressure falls
and strengthening despite the vertical shear increasing to more than
30 kt. By 96 hours and beyond, slightly cooler waters, much drier
air, and very hostile shear conditions of more than 40 kt should
cause steady weakening. The new NHC intensity forecast follows the
trend of the previous advisory, but now shows Humberto reaching peak
intensity in 72 hours, coincident with the warmest water
temperatures of about 29C and greatest jetstream dynamical forcing.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/1500Z 28.9N 77.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 16/0000Z 29.5N 77.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/1200Z 30.0N 77.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 17/0000Z 30.3N 75.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 17/1200Z 30.7N 74.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 18/1200Z 31.6N 69.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
96H 19/1200Z 34.5N 62.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 20/1200Z 39.0N 57.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-15 14:55

WTNT24 KNHC 151452
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 77.9W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.9N 77.9W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 77.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.5N 77.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.0N 77.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.3N 75.9W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.7N 74.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.6N 69.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 34.5N 62.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 39.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.9N 77.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-15 14:54

WTNT34 KNHC 151452
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

...HUMBERTO STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY
TONIGHT...
...SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO WILL INCREASE RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 77.9W
ABOUT 180 MI...290 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 77.9 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue into tonight. A sharp turn to the northeast is
forecast to occur Monday morning or afternoon, followed by a motion
toward the northeast and east-northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On
the forecast track, the center of Humberto will continue to move
away from the Bahamas and remain well offshore of the east coast of
Florida through Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast through
Wednesday, and Humberto is expected to become a hurricane by
tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds in squalls are still affecting portions of the
northwestern Bahamas. These winds should subside later today.

RAINFALL: Outer rain bands associated with Humberto are expected
to produce additional rainfall of 1 to 2 inches in the central and
northern Bahamas, with isolated storm total amounts of 6 inches.

Humberto may bring periods of heavy rain to Bermuda beginning late
Wednesday.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, and the southeastern coast of the United States from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-15 08:58

WTNT44 KNHC 150856
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

Since reconnaissance aircraft departed the storm after midnight, the
overall cloud pattern of Humberto has not changed appreciably. Both
the earlier aircraft data and a blend of the most recent subjective
satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB still support an
initial intensity of 50 kt. While there is significant banding
evident over the northern and eastern portions of the circulation,
the cyclone has not be able to maintain convection over the center,
likely due to some mid-level dry air that has wrapped around the
southwestern and southern part of the system. As Humberto moves
slowly northward today, it will be over warm water and generally
within low vertical wind shear. This should allow for
strengthening, and the NHC foreast continues to calls for Humberto
to become a hurricane later today or tonight. Additional
strengthening is likely after that time when the storm recurves and
remains within favorable environmental conditions. Late in the
period, Humberto is forecast to interact with an approaching
mid-latitude trough, and increasing shear ahead of that system is
likely to cause weakening. This interaction should also begin
Humberto's transition to an extratropical cyclone. The updated NHC
intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous
advisory and is in best agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus
model.

Humberto continues to be steered north-northwestward at about 6 kt
by a mid-level ridge over the western Atlantic. The tropical storm
should turn northward and slow down later today as a weakness
develops in the ridge. On Monday, a broad trough over the the
northeastern United States is expected to turn Humberto
northeastward, and then east-northeastward away from the United
States. The dynamical models remain in good agreement on the
overall track forecast scenario but there are some differences in
the forward speed of Humberto after the east-northeastward turn.
The latest NHC track is similar to, but a little slower than, the
previous advisory. The new track forecast is closest to the
multi-model consensus to account for the forward speed differences
among the guidance.

Large swells from Humberto will affect portions of the northwestern
Bahamas and southeastern United States coast during the next few
days. These swells are expected to produce dangerous surf
conditions and life-threatening rip currents. See products issued
by your local weather office for additional information.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0900Z 28.3N 77.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 29.0N 77.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 29.6N 77.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 30.1N 76.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 30.5N 75.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 31.3N 71.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 33.5N 64.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 38.0N 58.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-15 08:57

WTNT34 KNHC 150855
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 15 2019

...HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...
...SWELLS FROM HUMBERTO TO INCREASE RIP CURRENT THREAT ALONG THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.3N 77.7W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NNW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 175 MI...285 KM E OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 28.3 North, longitude 77.7 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow
north-northwestward to northward motion is expected over the next
24 hours. A sharp turn to the northeast is expected on Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of Humberto should continue to move
well offshore of the east coast of Florida during the next day or so
and then move away from the U.S.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Humberto is
forecast to become a hurricane later today or tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds in squalls are still affecting portions of the
northwestern Bahamas. These winds should subside later today.

RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto will affect the northwestern
Bahamas, and the southeast coast of the United States from from
east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few days.
These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-15 08:56

WTNT24 KNHC 150853
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 77.7W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.3N 77.7W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 77.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.0N 77.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.6N 77.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.1N 76.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.5N 75.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 31.3N 71.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 33.5N 64.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 38.0N 58.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.3N 77.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-15 02:35

WTNT44 KNHC 150233
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Humberto is gradually strengthening. Both the NOAA and Air Force
Hurricane Hunters have been investigating the storm this evening and
they have found that the cyclone is a little stronger. Based on
that data, the initial wind speed is nudged upward to 50 kt and the
minimum pressure is around 1000 mb. Satellite images also show
that the storm's structure is improving with an inner core trying to
form and banding features becoming better defined to the north of
the center. Doppler radar data from the NOAA P-3 aircraft indicate
that the cyclone has become less titled in the vertical, suggesting
that the shear has lessened over the system. However, there is
still some signs of dry air being wrapped into the southern side of
the circulation.

Satellite and aircraft fixes indicate that the storm is moving
north-northwestward at about 5 kt, steered by a mid-level ridge to
its north-northeast over the western Atlantic. Humberto is expected
to slow down and turn northward on Sunday well off the coast of
east-central Florida as it moves into a developing weakness in the
ridge. After that time, a turn to the northeast and then the
east-northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed is predicted
as Humberto moves along with the flow near the base of a large scale
trough. The track models are in relatively good agreement, and only
small changes were made to the previous forecast.

The tropical storm is likely to continue strengthening during the
next 3 to 4 days as it remains in relatively low wind shear
conditions and over the warm Gulf Stream waters. Beyond that time,
an increase in wind shear associated with an approaching shortwave
trough will likely cause some weakening. The NHC intensity forecast
is slightly higher than the previous one and shows Humberto becoming
a hurricane in about 24 hours with additional strengthening
thereafter. This forecast is in best agreement with the intensity
consensus models HCCA, IVDR, and IVCN.

The global models suggest that as Humberto gains latitude and
intensifies, its wind field will gradually expand, and that
is reflected in the NHC wind radii forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 27.6N 77.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 28.5N 77.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 29.3N 77.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 29.9N 77.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 30.4N 75.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 31.2N 72.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 33.0N 65.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 36.9N 58.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-15 02:35

WTNT34 KNHC 150233
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...HUMBERTO SLOWLY STRENGTHENING TO THE NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 77.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 77.3 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this
motion with a gradual turn to the north is expected for the next
day or so. A sharp turn to the northeast is expected on Monday. On
the forecast track, the center of Humberto should continue to move
well offshore of the east coast of Florida during the next day or so
and then move away from the U.S.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is expected during the next
few days, and Humberto is forecast to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure of 1000 mb (29.53 inches) is based on
data from the NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunters.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds in squalls are still affecting portions of the
northwestern Bahamas. These winds should subside on Sunday morning.

RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to affect
the northwestern Bahamas, and the coast of the U.S. from
from east-central Florida to North Carolina during the next few
days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-15 02:35

WTNT24 KNHC 150232
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 15 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 77.3W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 140SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 77.3W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 77.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 28.5N 77.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.3N 77.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 29.9N 77.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.4N 75.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 31.2N 72.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 120SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 33.0N 65.6W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 36.9N 58.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 77.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-14 20:38

WTNT44 KNHC 142036
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane extensively investigated
Humberto during the past several hours. Data from the plane
indicated that the circulation was much better defined than
yesterday and the winds increased to 45 kt. Since the plane
left, satellite images revealed that the cloud pattern has
continued to become better organized, and the low-level center
is now under the convection. However, the Dvorak numbers still
support keeping the same intensity of 45 kt at this time.

Now that the shear appears to be decreasing and Humberto will be
moving over warm waters, the NHC forecast continues
to call for strengthening. Humberto is anticipated to become
a hurricane in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic well east
of the Florida east coast, and well away from the Bahamas. The
intensity forecast continues to be consistent with the solutions
of the consensus model and the corrected consensus HCCA. In
addition, all global models intensify Humberto and show an increase
in the size of the storm.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Humberto has
begun to move very slowly toward the north-northwest or 330 degrees
at 6 kt. The ridge over the western Atlantic that has been trapping
Humberto is already weakening, and this should result in a slow
motion toward the north-northwest and then north during the next day
or so. After that time, the cyclone will encounter the mid-latitude
westerlies, and Humberto, by then a hurricane, is forecast to
sharply recurve northeastward away from the United States with no
significant increase in forward speed. Only by the end of the
forecast period, Humberto should begin to accelerate. The NHC
forecast is very consistent with the track guidance which once again
clearly depict the slow motion of the system, and then a sharp right
turn in 2 or 3 days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/2100Z 27.4N 77.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0600Z 28.2N 77.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1800Z 29.3N 78.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0600Z 29.9N 77.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1800Z 30.5N 76.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 17/1800Z 31.2N 73.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 18/1800Z 32.5N 67.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 19/1800Z 36.0N 61.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-14 20:38

WTNT34 KNHC 142036
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...HUMBERTO FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 77.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has discontinued the Tropical Storm
Warning for the Northwestern Bahamas.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

There are no coastal watches and warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 27.4 North, longitude 77.3 West. Humberto is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual turn to the north is expected during
the next day or so. A sharp turn to the northeast is expected on
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Humberto should
continue to move away from the northwestern Bahamas tonight, and
then move well offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend
and early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Humberto is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday night or
early Monday well east of the east coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Gusty winds in squalls are still affecting the northwestern
Bahamas. These winds should subside later tonight.

RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to affect
the northwestern Bahamas, and the coast of the U.S. from
from east-central Florida to South Carolina during the next few
days. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-14 20:38

WTNT24 KNHC 142035
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 77.3W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 150SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 77.3W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 77.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 28.2N 77.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.3N 78.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.9N 77.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 30.5N 76.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 31.2N 73.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 32.5N 67.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 36.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 77.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-14 17:36

WTNT34 KNHC 141734
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
200 PM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...HUMBERTO CRAWLING NORTHWESTWARD...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY SUNDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 77.1W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM ENE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude 27.1
North, longitude 77.1 West. After several hours meandering, Humberto
has begun to move toward the northwest at 7 mph (11 km/h), and this
general motion with gradual turn to the north is expected during the
next day or so. A sharp turn to the northeast is expected on Monday.
On the forecast track, the center of Humberto should gradually move
away from the northwestern Bahamas today or tonight, and then move
well offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Humberto is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday night well east
of the east coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The latest minimum central pressure just reported by a
reconnaissance plane was 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are still expected within portions
of the warning area in the northwestern Bahamas today. These winds
should subside later today or tonight.

RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts...up to 1 inch.

STORM SURGE: Humberto is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to increase and
effect the coast from east-central Florida to South Carolina late
this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-14 14:51

WTNT44 KNHC 141449
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

The center of Humberto is better defined today, but due to shear, it
is still located south of the main area of deep convection.
Satellite images indicate that a cyclonically-curved convective band
is also developing southeast of the center. Recent reports from an
Air Force reconnaissance plane indicate that the winds have
increased, and the maximum intensity has been adjusted upward to 45
kt. These strong winds are confined to the north and east of the
center of the cyclone.

The current unfavorable shear over Humberto is forecast to weaken,
and since the cyclone is expected to move over warm waters, the NHC
forecast calls for strengthening. Humberto is anticipated to become
a hurricane in about 36 hours over the western Atlantic well east of
the Florida east coast and well away from the Bahamas. The intensity
forecast is consistent with the solutions of the consensus model and
the corrected consensus HCCA. In addition, all global models
intensify Humberto and show an increase in the size of the storm.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Humberto has barely
moved during the past few hours. Humberto is being trapped by a
ridge to the north, but this feature is forecast to weaken. The
expected flow pattern should steer the cyclone very slowly toward
the northwest and north during the next 24 to 36 hours. After
that time, the cyclone will encounter the mid-latitude westerlies,
and most likely, Humberto will sharply recurve northeastward away
from the United States with no significant increase in forward
speed. Only by the end of the forecast period, Humberto should begin
to accelerate. The NHC forecast is very consistent with the track
guidance which clearly depict the slow motion of the system and
the sharp turn to the right in 2 or 3 days.

Key Messages:

1. Humberto will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy
rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas today. Significant
storm surge is not expected in the northwestern Bahamas from this
system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local
officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 26.6N 76.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 15/0000Z 27.6N 77.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 15/1200Z 28.7N 78.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 16/0000Z 29.5N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 16/1200Z 30.0N 77.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 17/1200Z 30.5N 74.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 18/1200Z 31.5N 70.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 19/1200Z 34.5N 63.0W 90 KT 105 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-14 14:51

WTNT34 KNHC 141448
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE FINDS HUMBERTO STRENGTHENING...
...HUMBERTO HAS BARELY MOVED THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 76.7W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located by an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane near latitude 26.6
North, longitude 76.7 West. Humberto has been nearly stationary
during the past few hours, but the cyclone should resume a slow
motion toward the northwest and north later today. A sharp turn
to the northeast is expected on Monday. On the forecast track,
the center of Humberto should gradually move away from the
northwestern Bahamas later today or tonight, and then will move well
offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early next
week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h)
with higher gusts. Humberto is forecast to become a hurricane by
Sunday night well east of the east coast of Florida.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure from a reconnaissance plane was 1005
mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas today. These winds should subside
later today or tonight.

RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...Additional 1 to 3 inches, isolated storm totals
of 6 inches.
Portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts...up to 1 inch.

STORM SURGE: Humberto is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to increase and
effect the coast from east-central Florida to South Carolina late
this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-14 14:50

WTNT24 KNHC 141448
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 76.7W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 0 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 76.7W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 76.6W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.6N 77.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 28.7N 78.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.5N 78.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 30.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.5N 74.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 31.5N 70.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 34.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 76.7W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-14 11:46

WTNT34 KNHC 141143
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
800 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...CENTER OF HUMBERTO PASSING JUST EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND...
...MOST THE HEAVY SQUALLS ARE OCCURING NORTH AND EAST OF THE
CENTER...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 76.6W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products
issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 76.6 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the north-
northwest is expected by Sunday and a slower northward to
northeastward motion is forecast to occur by Monday. On the
forecast track, the system will gradually move away from the
northwestern Bahamas later today, and then will move well offshore
of the east coast of Florida this weekend and early next week.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Humberto is expected
to become a hurricane by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
to the north and east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force
reconnaissance plane was 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas today. These winds should subside
later today.

RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
Portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts...1 to 2 inches.

STORM SURGE: Humberto is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to increase and
effect the coast from east-central Florida to South Carolina late
this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-14 08:44

WTNT44 KNHC 140842
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

Convection associated with Humberto has increased a little since
the last advisory, as a new burst has occurred to the north of the
center. Other convection continues in a large curved band in the
eastern semicircle. Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft near 0500 UTC indicated that the maximum sustained
winds were near 35 kt, and that will be the initial intensity for
this advisory. It should be noted that an upper-level trough is
located just south of Humberto, and the storm may have some
subtropical characteristics due to interaction with this trough.

While the motion is still a bit erratic, Humberto now seems to be
moving a little faster toward the northwest or 315/6 kt. During the
next few days, a low- to mid-level ridge over the eastern United
States and the western Atlantic is expected to slide southeastward,
with a weakness in the ridge developing due to a mid- to upper-level
trough over the northeastern U.S. This change in the steering
pattern should cause the storm to slow down and turn northward off
the east coast of Florida in 36 to 48 hours. Subsequently, the
northeastern U.S. trough should dig southward, and this change
should turn Humberto northeastward and then eastward away from the
U.S. The track guidance has shifted a little more to the east
during the first 72 h, and the new NHC track has been nudged
eastward as well during this time. The new forecast track lies near
the various consensus models.

Southwesterly vertical shear and dry air entrainment caused by the
upper-level trough to the south is forecast to diminish during the
next 2-3 days while Humberto moves near or over the warm waters of
the Gulf Stream. This should allow intensification, and Humberto
is expected to become a hurricane in about 48 h. The intensity
forecast becomes more uncertain between 72-120 h. Strong
upper-level winds associated with the mid-latitude trough over the
eastern United States should cause strong shear over Humberto.
However, there is a chance that baroclinic forcing from the trough
could compensate for the shear, and the GFS, ECMWF, UKMET, Canadian,
and HWRF models all show the central pressure falling during this
time. The intensity forecast will follow this guidance and show some
additional strengthening through 96 h. Overall, the new intensity
forecast is similar to, but slightly higher than, the previous
forecast.


Key Messages:

1. Humberto will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy
rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas today. Significant
storm surge is not expected in the northwestern Bahamas from this
system. Residents there should follow any advice given by local
officials.

2. Since the forecast track has shifted farther to the east, the
chance of heavy rainfall affecting the southeastern United States
has diminished.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 26.3N 76.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 26.9N 76.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 15/0600Z 28.0N 77.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 15/1800Z 29.0N 77.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 16/0600Z 29.8N 77.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 17/0600Z 30.8N 74.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/0600Z 31.5N 71.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 19/0600Z 33.0N 66.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-14 08:44

WTNT34 KNHC 140841
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...CENTER OF HUMBERTO NOW EAST OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 76.0W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 170 MI...270 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 76.0 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected by Sunday, with a slower northward to
northeastward motion forecast to occur by Monday. On the forecast
track, the system is anticipated to move near or over the
northwestern Bahamas today, and offshore of the east coast of
Florida this weekend and early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Humberto is expected to
become a hurricane by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas today.

RAINFALL: Humberto is expected to produce the following total
rainfall accumulations through Monday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
Portions of the Florida and Georgia coasts...1 to 2 inches.

STORM SURGE: Humberto is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to increase and
effect the coast from east-central Florida to South Carolina late
this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-14 08:44

WTNT24 KNHC 140841
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 76.0W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 76.0W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 75.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 26.9N 76.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 28.0N 77.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 29.0N 77.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 29.8N 77.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.8N 74.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 31.5N 71.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 33.0N 66.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 76.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-14 05:44

WTNT34 KNHC 140542
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Intermediate Advisory Number 6A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
200 AM EDT Sat Sep 14 2019

...HUMBERTO MOVING NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 75.6W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area outside of the United
States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 75.6 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected by Sunday, with a slower northward
motion forecast to occur by Monday. On the forecast track, the
system is anticipated to move very near the northwestern Bahamas
today, and offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Humberto
is expected to become a hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure just reported by an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas later today.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce these total rainfall
accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Atlantic Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Humberto are expected to increase and
effect the coasts of Central Florida to South Carolina late
this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-14 03:58

WTNT82 EGRR 140358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 14.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.0N 44.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2019 0 11.0N 44.4W 1014 19
1200UTC 14.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 115.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2019 0 17.3N 115.8W 999 37
1200UTC 14.09.2019 12 17.1N 117.7W 993 44
0000UTC 15.09.2019 24 16.8N 119.3W 994 39
1200UTC 15.09.2019 36 17.0N 120.7W 989 47
0000UTC 16.09.2019 48 17.5N 122.1W 989 45
1200UTC 16.09.2019 60 17.7N 123.5W 988 49
0000UTC 17.09.2019 72 17.8N 124.7W 990 50
1200UTC 17.09.2019 84 17.8N 126.1W 997 45
0000UTC 18.09.2019 96 18.3N 127.5W 1001 32
1200UTC 18.09.2019 108 18.6N 129.8W 1004 30
0000UTC 19.09.2019 120 18.8N 132.7W 1005 29
1200UTC 19.09.2019 132 18.6N 135.5W 1005 29
0000UTC 20.09.2019 144 18.8N 137.5W 1005 31

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 25.4N 75.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2019 0 25.4N 75.1W 1010 26
1200UTC 14.09.2019 12 26.4N 76.3W 1009 25
0000UTC 15.09.2019 24 27.5N 76.9W 1007 33
1200UTC 15.09.2019 36 28.4N 77.3W 1006 36
0000UTC 16.09.2019 48 29.0N 76.7W 1001 43
1200UTC 16.09.2019 60 29.7N 76.1W 993 52
0000UTC 17.09.2019 72 29.7N 75.0W 981 58
1200UTC 17.09.2019 84 30.2N 73.1W 966 63
0000UTC 18.09.2019 96 31.1N 70.8W 958 69
1200UTC 18.09.2019 108 32.0N 67.7W 948 82
0000UTC 19.09.2019 120 34.2N 62.8W 928 89
1200UTC 19.09.2019 132 38.4N 57.4W 928 88
0000UTC 20.09.2019 144 41.4N 52.4W 969 70

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.7N 133.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2019 0 13.7N 133.6W 1007 26
1200UTC 14.09.2019 12 13.7N 133.6W 1007 26
0000UTC 15.09.2019 24 13.6N 132.9W 1006 27
1200UTC 15.09.2019 36 13.9N 132.6W 1005 32
0000UTC 16.09.2019 48 14.1N 132.2W 1004 32
1200UTC 16.09.2019 60 14.4N 131.9W 1004 34
0000UTC 17.09.2019 72 15.0N 131.9W 1005 29
1200UTC 17.09.2019 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 13.0N 138.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 12 13.0N 138.5W 1007 26
0000UTC 15.09.2019 24 12.7N 138.0W 1005 28
1200UTC 15.09.2019 36 12.4N 137.3W 1002 32
0000UTC 16.09.2019 48 12.3N 136.6W 1001 41
1200UTC 16.09.2019 60 12.4N 135.6W 1002 36
0000UTC 17.09.2019 72 12.7N 135.0W 1003 29
1200UTC 17.09.2019 84 12.8N 133.9W 1004 30
0000UTC 18.09.2019 96 13.3N 132.0W 1004 31
1200UTC 18.09.2019 108 14.0N 131.3W 1004 29
0000UTC 19.09.2019 120 15.2N 130.8W 1004 29
1200UTC 19.09.2019 132 17.4N 131.8W 1006 29
0000UTC 20.09.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.7N 144.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2019 24 12.7N 144.4W 1008 24
1200UTC 15.09.2019 36 12.7N 144.6W 1007 22
0000UTC 16.09.2019 48 12.3N 144.9W 1006 24
1200UTC 16.09.2019 60 11.9N 145.0W 1005 25
0000UTC 17.09.2019 72 12.0N 144.6W 1004 27
1200UTC 17.09.2019 84 12.5N 144.4W 1005 27
0000UTC 18.09.2019 96 13.0N 144.1W 1004 28
1200UTC 18.09.2019 108 13.3N 144.1W 1003 34
0000UTC 19.09.2019 120 13.7N 144.5W 1002 29
1200UTC 19.09.2019 132 14.3N 145.1W 1002 30
0000UTC 20.09.2019 144 15.7N 146.2W 1001 32

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 26.4N 92.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2019 60 27.1N 92.6W 1008 24
0000UTC 17.09.2019 72 28.1N 94.3W 1006 29
1200UTC 17.09.2019 84 28.8N 95.1W 1004 25
0000UTC 18.09.2019 96 29.6N 95.1W 1002 29
1200UTC 18.09.2019 108 30.6N 94.9W 1002 36
0000UTC 19.09.2019 120 31.5N 94.4W 999 31
1200UTC 19.09.2019 132 31.7N 94.0W 997 32
0000UTC 20.09.2019 144 32.3N 93.9W 1003 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.5N 41.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2019 60 11.5N 41.4W 1010 25
0000UTC 17.09.2019 72 12.5N 43.4W 1008 30
1200UTC 17.09.2019 84 13.8N 45.7W 1004 36
0000UTC 18.09.2019 96 14.7N 48.0W 998 41
1200UTC 18.09.2019 108 15.5N 50.2W 994 40
0000UTC 19.09.2019 120 16.6N 52.4W 990 50
1200UTC 19.09.2019 132 18.1N 54.7W 987 56
0000UTC 20.09.2019 144 19.4N 56.7W 989 59

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 14.8N 163.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 17.09.2019 72 14.8N 163.5W 1004 26
1200UTC 17.09.2019 84 15.3N 164.3W 1003 29
0000UTC 18.09.2019 96 16.7N 164.3W 1001 34
1200UTC 18.09.2019 108 17.7N 164.5W 999 39
0000UTC 19.09.2019 120 19.4N 165.2W 1000 38
1200UTC 19.09.2019 132 21.5N 166.4W 999 38
0000UTC 20.09.2019 144 21.5N 166.9W 997 37

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 11.0N 151.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 84 11.0N 151.9W 1007 20
0000UTC 18.09.2019 96 11.1N 151.3W 1006 21
1200UTC 18.09.2019 108 11.0N 150.7W 1006 21
0000UTC 19.09.2019 120 11.3N 150.3W 1005 23
1200UTC 19.09.2019 132 11.6N 150.1W 1004 24
0000UTC 20.09.2019 144 12.4N 150.5W 1002 28


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140357

>

2019-09-14 03:58

WTNT80 EGRR 140357

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 11.0N 44.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2019 11.0N 44.4W WEAK
12UTC 14.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 115.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2019 17.3N 115.8W MODERATE
12UTC 14.09.2019 17.1N 117.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2019 16.8N 119.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 17.0N 120.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2019 17.5N 122.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 17.7N 123.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2019 17.8N 124.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 17.8N 126.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 18.3N 127.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 18.6N 129.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 18.8N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 18.6N 135.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 18.8N 137.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 25.4N 75.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2019 25.4N 75.1W WEAK
12UTC 14.09.2019 26.4N 76.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 27.5N 76.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 28.4N 77.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 29.0N 76.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2019 29.7N 76.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2019 29.7N 75.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 17.09.2019 30.2N 73.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 31.1N 70.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 32.0N 67.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 34.2N 62.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 19.09.2019 38.4N 57.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 41.4N 52.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 13.7N 133.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2019 13.7N 133.6W WEAK
12UTC 14.09.2019 13.7N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 13.6N 132.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 13.9N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 14.1N 132.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 14.4N 131.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2019 15.0N 131.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 13.0N 138.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2019 13.0N 138.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 12.7N 138.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 12.4N 137.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 12.3N 136.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 12.4N 135.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2019 12.7N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 12.8N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 13.3N 132.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 14.0N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.2N 130.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 17.4N 131.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.7N 144.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2019 12.7N 144.4W WEAK
12UTC 15.09.2019 12.7N 144.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 12.3N 144.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 11.9N 145.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2019 12.0N 144.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 12.5N 144.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 13.0N 144.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 13.3N 144.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 13.7N 144.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 14.3N 145.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 15.7N 146.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 26.4N 92.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.09.2019 27.1N 92.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2019 28.1N 94.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 28.8N 95.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 29.6N 95.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 30.6N 94.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 31.5N 94.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 31.7N 94.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 32.3N 93.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 11.5N 41.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.09.2019 11.5N 41.4W WEAK
00UTC 17.09.2019 12.5N 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 13.8N 45.7W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 14.7N 48.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 15.5N 50.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 16.6N 52.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.09.2019 18.1N 54.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 19.4N 56.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 14.8N 163.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 17.09.2019 14.8N 163.5W WEAK
12UTC 17.09.2019 15.3N 164.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 16.7N 164.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 17.7N 164.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 19.4N 165.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 21.5N 166.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 21.5N 166.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 11.0N 151.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 11.0N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 11.1N 151.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 11.0N 150.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 11.3N 150.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 11.6N 150.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 20.09.2019 12.4N 150.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 140357

>

2019-09-14 03:03

WTNT44 KNHC 140300 CCA
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 6...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Corrected to change depression to storm in the second paragraph

Deep convection has been gradually increasing this evening, and it
is currently most organized in a curved band to the east of the
estimated center. In addition, data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters
indicate that the depression has strengthened. The maximum
flight-level wind at 700 mb was 41 kt and reliable SFMR values were
35 kt. Based on that data, the initial intensity is increased to 35
kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Humberto. The data from the
aircraft indicate that the cyclone is titled to the northeast with
height, likely due to southwesterly wind shear.

Humberto has been moving erratically during the past 12 to 18 hours
as the cyclone has been trying to organize, but my best guess at the
initial motion is 320/5. During the next few days, a ridge to the
north of the system over the eastern United States and the western
Atlantic is expected to slide southeastward, with a weakness in the
ridge developing due to a mid- to upper-level trough over the
northeastern U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause
the storm to slow down and turn northward off the east coast of
Florida in 36 to 48 hours. The models show the trough over the
northeastern U.S. amplifying early next week, which should cause
Humberto to turn northeastward and then eastward away from the U.S.
The NHC track forecast has been nudged south and east of the
previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus
models. Since there is increasing confidence that the storm will
remain well offshore of the coast of Florida, the Tropical Storm
Watch for that area has been discontinued.

The storm is still feeling some effects of southwesterly shear
and drier air, which is causing its lopsided appearance in
satellite images and strong tilt in the aircraft data. The
atmospheric conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for strengthening while Humberto moves over the warm
Gulf Stream waters. These environmental parameters support
intensification, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane
in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of
the previous one and in line with the HCCA and IVCN guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Humberto will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy
rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.
Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas
from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding is possible this
weekend in coastal sections of eastern Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina. The chance of heavy rainfall affecting coastal North
Carolina early next week continues to diminish.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 25.6N 75.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 26.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 27.6N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 28.8N 78.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 29.8N 78.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 31.0N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 31.3N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 32.3N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-14 02:50

WTNT44 KNHC 140248
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Humberto Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Deep convection has been gradually increasing this evening, and it
is currently most organized in a curved band to the east of the
estimated center. In addition, data from the NOAA Hurricane Hunters
indicate that the depression has strengthened. The maximum
flight-level wind at 700 mb was 41 kt and reliable SFMR values were
35 kt. Based on that data, the initial intensity is increased to 35
kt, making the cyclone Tropical Storm Humberto. The data from the
aircraft indicate that the cyclone is titled to the northeast with
height, likely due to southwesterly wind shear.

Humberto has been moving erratically during the past 12 to 18 hours
as the cyclone has been trying to organize, but my best guess at the
initial motion is 320/5. During the next few days, a ridge to the
north of the system over the eastern United States and the western
Atlantic is expected to slide southeastward, with a weakness in the
ridge developing due to a mid- to upper-level trough over the
northeastern U.S. This change in the steering pattern should cause
the depression to slow down and turn northward off the east coast of
Florida in 36 to 48 hours. The models show the trough over the
northeastern U.S. amplifying early next week, which should cause
Humberto to turn northeastward and then eastward away from the U.S.
The NHC track forecast has been nudged south and east of the
previous one to be in better agreement with the latest consensus
models. Since there is increasing confidence that the storm will
remain well offshore of the coast of Florida, the Tropical Storm
Watch for that area has been discontinued.

The storm is still feeling some effects of southwesterly shear
and drier air, which is causing its lopsided appearance in
satellite images and strong tilt in the aircraft data. The
atmospheric conditions are expected to gradually become more
conducive for strengthening while Humberto moves over the warm
Gulf Stream waters. These environmental parameters support
intensification, and the cyclone is expected to become a hurricane
in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast is largely an update of
the previous one and in line with the HCCA and IVCN guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Humberto will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds and heavy
rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Saturday.
Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas
from this system. Residents there should follow any advice given by
local officials.

2. Heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding is possible this
weekend in coastal sections of eastern Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina. The chance of heavy rainfall affecting coastal North
Carolina early next week continues to diminish.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 25.6N 75.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 26.5N 76.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 27.6N 77.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 28.8N 78.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 29.8N 78.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 31.0N 75.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 31.3N 72.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 32.3N 67.2W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-14 02:49

WTNT34 KNHC 140247
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Humberto Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 75.2W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch on the east coast of Florida has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 75.2 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected by Sunday, with a slower northward
motion forecast to occur by Monday. On the forecast track, the
system is anticipated to move very near the northwestern Bahamas
on Saturday, and offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend
and early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with
higher gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Humberto is
expected to become a hurricane in two or three days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas by early Saturday.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce these total rainfall
accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Atlantic Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase
and effect the coasts of Central Florida to South Carolina late
this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-14 02:49

WTNT24 KNHC 140247
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 14 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH ON THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 75.2W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 75.2W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 75.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 26.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.6N 77.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 28.8N 78.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.8N 78.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.0N 75.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 31.3N 72.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 32.3N 67.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 75.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-13 23:47

WTNT34 KNHC 132344
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
800 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS INVESTIGATING THE DEPRESSION...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 74.8W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 74.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Saturday, with a
slower northward motion forecast to occur on Sunday. On the
forecast track, the system is anticipated to move very near the
northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and offshore of the east
coast of Florida this weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and the depression is
expected to become a tropical storm on Saturday and a hurricane in
a few days.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the NOAA
Hurricane Hunters is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas by early Saturday. Tropical storm
conditions are still possible in the watch area on the Florida
peninsula by Saturday night.

RAINFALL: The depression is expected to produce these total rainfall
accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Atlantic Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by the depression are expected to increase
and effect the coasts of Central Florida to South Carolina late
this weekend and early next week. These swells could cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-13 20:45

WTNT44 KNHC 132043
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Nine Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

An Air Force plane extensively investigated the disturbance near the
Bahamas during the past several hours, and in the last portion of
the mission, the crew was able to locate a center of circulation,
although weak, near the convection. The center was a little bit
to the east of the previous estimates. Satellite images also
indicate that the cloud pattern has become a little better organized
and Dvorak estimates are T2.0 and 1.5 from TAFB and SAB,
respectively. On this basis, the disturbance has been classified as
a tropical depression with 25 kt winds.

Conditions are not ideal for strengthening since the depression
is still embedded within a moderate shear environment, but
this parameter is not expected to be strong enough to halt
additional development. The NHC forecast still calls for this system
to become a tropical storm on Saturday with gradual intensification
thereafter. Global models insist on further development, and the
reliable guidance suggests that the cyclone could even reach
hurricane intensity in about 3 days, and so does the NHC forecast.
By then, the system is expected to be over the Atlantic waters well
southeast of the coast of the Carolinas.

Due to the reformation of the apparent center, the initial motion is
highly uncertain. The best estimate is toward the northwest or 305
degrees at 7 kt. A weakness in the ridge over the western Atlantic
is forecast to develop, and this pattern should steer the system
slowly toward the northwest and then northward. In about 3 days, an
eastward moving mid-latitude trough will force the system to recurve
away from the coast toward the Atlantic. The track guidance has
shifted to the east again, and this shift is larger due to the
eastward formation of the center. Consequently, the NHC track
forecast was adjusted in that direction, but it remains on the
western edge of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm within
the next 24 hours and will likely bring tropical-storm-force winds
and heavy rainfall to portions of the northwestern Bahamas later
today and Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the
northwest Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow
any advice given by local officials.

2. The system could still bring tropical storm conditions to
portions of the Florida east coast. Residents there should monitor
the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local
officials.

3. Heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding is possible this
weekend in coastal sections of eastern Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina. The chance of heavy rainfall affecting coastal North
Carolina early next week continues to diminish.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/2100Z 25.6N 75.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 14/0600Z 26.2N 76.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 14/1800Z 27.4N 77.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0600Z 28.8N 78.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 15/1800Z 30.0N 78.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 16/1800Z 31.5N 76.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 17/1800Z 32.0N 73.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 18/1800Z 32.5N 68.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-13 20:44

WTNT34 KNHC 132042
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS NEAR THE BAHAMAS...
...FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON SATURDAY...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.6N 75.0W
ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine was
located near latitude 25.6 North, longitude 75.0 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A
turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Saturday. On
the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move very near the
northwestern Bahamas tonight and Saturday, and east of the east
coast of Florida during Saturday and Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The
depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Saturday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas tonight and early Saturday.
Tropical storm conditions are still possible in the watch area on
the Florida peninsula by Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Atlantic Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-13 20:44

WTNT24 KNHC 132042
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER-VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 75.0W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 75.0W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 74.7W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.2N 76.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.4N 77.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 28.8N 78.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.0N 78.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 31.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 32.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 32.5N 68.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 75.0W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 14/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-13 17:44

WTNT34 KNHC 131742
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
200 PM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...
...AIR FORCE PLANE STILL INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.4N 74.2W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
25.4 North, longitude 74.2 West. The system has been meandering
during the past few hours, but is expected to resume a slow motion
toward the northwest and north-northwest later today. On the
forecast track, the system is anticipated to move across the central
and northwestern Bahamas tonight, and along or near the east coast
of Florida Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Preliminary data from an Air Force Reconnaissance plane
indicate that the disturbance is becoming better organized, and
is anticipated that a tropical depression or a tropical storm
will likely form later today or tonight.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
a tropical storm later today or tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days... high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula
by Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-13 16:00

WTNT82 EGRR 131559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 13.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.6N 37.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2019 0 9.6N 37.8W 1014 18
0000UTC 14.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 114.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2019 0 16.4N 114.3W 1002 28
0000UTC 14.09.2019 12 17.2N 115.8W 999 38
1200UTC 14.09.2019 24 17.2N 117.8W 993 45
0000UTC 15.09.2019 36 17.2N 119.5W 992 44
1200UTC 15.09.2019 48 17.3N 120.9W 991 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 60 17.6N 122.6W 989 45
1200UTC 16.09.2019 72 17.8N 124.2W 988 51
0000UTC 17.09.2019 84 18.0N 125.7W 993 47
1200UTC 17.09.2019 96 18.4N 127.2W 1001 31
0000UTC 18.09.2019 108 19.4N 129.1W 1004 29
1200UTC 18.09.2019 120 19.9N 131.7W 1006 27
0000UTC 19.09.2019 132 20.3N 134.0W 1007 27
1200UTC 19.09.2019 144 20.3N 136.3W 1008 23

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 74.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2019 0 24.5N 74.8W 1010 22
0000UTC 14.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 13.4N 133.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2019 12 13.9N 133.2W 1007 24
1200UTC 14.09.2019 24 13.3N 133.2W 1007 26
0000UTC 15.09.2019 36 13.5N 132.9W 1006 27
1200UTC 15.09.2019 48 13.6N 132.9W 1005 31
0000UTC 16.09.2019 60 13.9N 132.7W 1003 28
1200UTC 16.09.2019 72 14.1N 132.9W 1004 31
0000UTC 17.09.2019 84 14.4N 133.7W 1004 30
1200UTC 17.09.2019 96 13.9N 133.6W 1005 28
0000UTC 18.09.2019 108 13.8N 133.5W 1005 28
1200UTC 18.09.2019 120 13.9N 133.2W 1005 31
0000UTC 19.09.2019 132 15.2N 132.6W 1006 25
1200UTC 19.09.2019 144 16.5N 132.5W 1007 23

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.2N 145.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2019 12 11.2N 145.3W 1006 28
1200UTC 14.09.2019 24 11.7N 146.8W 1006 27
0000UTC 15.09.2019 36 12.7N 148.0W 1006 26
1200UTC 15.09.2019 48 12.9N 149.5W 1006 26
0000UTC 16.09.2019 60 13.3N 150.7W 1004 28
1200UTC 16.09.2019 72 13.5N 151.9W 1002 33
0000UTC 17.09.2019 84 14.1N 152.8W 999 32
1200UTC 17.09.2019 96 14.7N 153.5W 997 43
0000UTC 18.09.2019 108 15.5N 153.6W 999 36
1200UTC 18.09.2019 120 15.8N 153.6W 1000 32
0000UTC 19.09.2019 132 16.1N 153.7W 1000 33
1200UTC 19.09.2019 144 16.5N 153.8W 999 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 25.8N 75.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 24 26.4N 76.6W 1009 30
0000UTC 15.09.2019 36 27.5N 77.6W 1005 39
1200UTC 15.09.2019 48 28.6N 78.2W 1004 41
0000UTC 16.09.2019 60 29.5N 77.8W 995 57
1200UTC 16.09.2019 72 30.2N 76.6W 983 62
0000UTC 17.09.2019 84 30.4N 75.1W 973 60
1200UTC 17.09.2019 96 30.9N 72.9W 965 72
0000UTC 18.09.2019 108 31.6N 69.8W 960 79
1200UTC 18.09.2019 120 32.3N 66.1W 953 80
0000UTC 19.09.2019 132 33.5N 60.7W 958 77
1200UTC 19.09.2019 144 35.6N 54.3W 963 83

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.7N 138.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2019 24 12.7N 138.3W 1008 26
0000UTC 15.09.2019 36 12.0N 137.7W 1006 30
1200UTC 15.09.2019 48 11.3N 136.8W 1005 31
0000UTC 16.09.2019 60 11.1N 135.4W 1005 28
1200UTC 16.09.2019 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.5N 32.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 16.09.2019 72 13.5N 32.3W 1010 24
0000UTC 17.09.2019 84 15.1N 34.1W 1010 25
1200UTC 17.09.2019 96 16.8N 36.3W 1009 29
0000UTC 18.09.2019 108 17.9N 38.7W 1008 33
1200UTC 18.09.2019 120 18.5N 41.7W 1007 33
0000UTC 19.09.2019 132 18.9N 43.8W 1008 35
1200UTC 19.09.2019 144 20.1N 45.9W 1008 38

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.1N 164.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 96 15.1N 164.0W 1004 26
0000UTC 18.09.2019 108 16.2N 163.3W 1003 29
1200UTC 18.09.2019 120 16.6N 163.7W 1002 28
0000UTC 19.09.2019 132 17.8N 163.6W 1001 32
1200UTC 19.09.2019 144 19.5N 163.4W 999 36


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131559

>

2019-09-13 16:00

WTNT80 EGRR 131559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 13.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 96L ANALYSED POSITION : 9.6N 37.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL962019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2019 9.6N 37.8W WEAK
00UTC 14.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 114.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2019 16.4N 114.3W WEAK
00UTC 14.09.2019 17.2N 115.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2019 17.2N 117.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2019 17.2N 119.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 17.3N 120.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 17.6N 122.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 17.8N 124.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2019 18.0N 125.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2019 18.4N 127.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 19.4N 129.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 19.9N 131.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 20.3N 134.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 20.3N 136.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 74.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2019 24.5N 74.8W WEAK
00UTC 14.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 13.4N 133.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2019 13.9N 133.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2019 13.3N 133.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 13.5N 132.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 13.6N 132.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 13.9N 132.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 14.1N 132.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2019 14.4N 133.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 13.9N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 13.8N 133.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 13.9N 133.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 15.2N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.5N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 12 : 11.2N 145.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2019 11.2N 145.3W WEAK
12UTC 14.09.2019 11.7N 146.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 12.7N 148.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 12.9N 149.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 13.3N 150.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 13.5N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2019 14.1N 152.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 14.7N 153.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 15.5N 153.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 15.8N 153.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 16.1N 153.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 16.5N 153.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 25.8N 75.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2019 26.4N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 27.5N 77.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 28.6N 78.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 29.5N 77.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2019 30.2N 76.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2019 30.4N 75.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2019 30.9N 72.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 31.6N 69.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 32.3N 66.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 33.5N 60.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 19.09.2019 35.6N 54.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 12.7N 138.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 14.09.2019 12.7N 138.3W WEAK
00UTC 15.09.2019 12.0N 137.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 11.3N 136.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 11.1N 135.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 72 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 72 : 13.5N 32.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 16.09.2019 13.5N 32.3W WEAK
00UTC 17.09.2019 15.1N 34.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 16.8N 36.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 17.9N 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 18.5N 41.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 18.9N 43.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 20.1N 45.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 15.1N 164.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 15.1N 164.0W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2019 16.2N 163.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 16.6N 163.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 17.8N 163.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 19.09.2019 19.5N 163.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 131559

>

2019-09-13 14:57

WTNT44 KNHC 131455
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Preliminary data from a reconnaissance plane indicate that the
disturbance has not developed a well-defined center yet and
continues to be characterized by an elongated SW to NE trough of low
pressure. Satellite images however, suggest that the system could
be consolidating a little bit farther to the east within the area of
deep convection. The reconnaissance plane will also check this
region soon. In this advisory, the initial position is a point near
the middle of of the trough, but not quite as far east as the
convective area. The initial intensity remains 25 kt.

The disturbance is embedded within a moderate shear environment, but
this parameter is not expected to be strong enough to halt
development. The NHC forecast still calls for this system to
become a tropical cyclone later today or Saturday. Global models
develop the system and guidance suggests that the cyclone could even
reach hurricane intensity by the end of the forecast period. By
then, the system is expected to be over the Atlantic well southeast
of the coast of the Carolinas.

Due to a lack of a well-defined center, the initial motion is highly
uncertain. It appears that there has been little motion during
the past few hours. A weakness in the ridge over the western
Atlantic is forecast to develop and this pattern should steer the
system slowly toward the northwest and then northward. In about 3
days, an eastward moving mid-latitude trough will force the system
to recurve away from the coast toward the Atlantic. The guidance
has shifted a little to east this morning and consequently the NHC
track forecast was adjusted in that direction. However, the official
forecast is still on the western edge of the guidance envelope. If
the disturbance develops a little more to the east, the track
forecast will probably adjusted to the right later today.

Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the
northwestern Bahamas later today and Saturday. Significant storm
surge is not expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system.
Residents there should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of
the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents there should
monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall and scattered flash flooding is possible this
weekend in coastal sections of eastern Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina. Depending on the track of the system, heavy rainfall
could reach eastern North Carolina next week.

4. Note that forecast uncertainty for these disturbances is
generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72
hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 25.0N 74.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 14/0000Z 25.8N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 14/1200Z 26.6N 78.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 28.0N 79.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 29.2N 80.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 31.0N 79.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 31.5N 75.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 32.0N 71.5W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-13 14:56

WTNT34 KNHC 131454
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR
TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.0N 74.5W
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM ESE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near
latitude 25.0 North, longitude 74.5 West. The system is barely
moving, but is expected to resume a slow motion toward the
northwest and north-northwest later today. On the forecast
track, the system is anticipated to move across the central and
northwestern Bahamas today, and along or near the east coast of
Florida Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression
or a tropical storm later today or Saturday.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
a tropical storm later today or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula
by Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-13 14:55

WTNT24 KNHC 131453
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER-VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 74.5W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 1 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 74.5W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 74.5W

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.8N 76.5W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 26.6N 78.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 28.0N 79.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 29.2N 80.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 31.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 31.5N 75.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 32.0N 71.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 74.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>

2019-09-13 11:33

WTNT34 KNHC 131130
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...
...AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE
DISTURBANCE...

SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.1N 75.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of the disturbance was
estimated near latitude 25.1 North, longitude 75.3 West. The system
is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed
through the weekend. On the forecast track, the system is
anticipated to move across the central and northwestern Bahamas
today, and along or over the east coast of Florida Saturday and
Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and
the disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a
tropical storm later today or Saturday. An Air Force plane is
enroute to investigate the disturbance.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
tropical storm to form later today or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula
by Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-13 09:00

WTNT44 KNHC 130858
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the
tropical disturbance is currently comprised of a trough elongated
from west-southwest to east-northeast, with a vorticity center near
a loosely curved convective band at the eastern end of the trough.
While the system has become a little better organized since the
last advisory, it does not yet have a well-defined circulation
center. The initial intensity remains 25 kt based on satellite
intensity estimates and earlier scatterometer data.

The disturbance is now moving a little faster, with the initial
motion of 315/5. The system is to the south of a low- to mid-level
ridge over the southeastern United States, and it is to the east of
a mid- to upper-level low over the central Gulf of Mexico. The
large-scale models forecast the ridge to shift eastward into the
Atlantic during the next 24-48 h, with a weakness developing near
the southeastern coast of the United States and the east coast of
the Florida peninsula. The track guidance indicates that the
disturbance will move generally northwestward for 48 h or so,
followed by a turn to the north and eventually to the northeast as
the system moves through the weakness in the ridge. There is some
spread in the guidance, with the GFS model taking a weaker system
into the Florida peninsula while the UKMET and ECMWF models show a
stronger cyclone farther offshore. Overall, there has been an
eastward shift of the guidance since the previous advisory,
especially after 72 h. The new forecast track is thus also nudged
a little to the east and now calls for the system to spend less
time over the Florida peninsula than previously forecast. The new
forecast track is to the left of the center of the guidance
envelope and the consensus models, and additional adjustments may
be necessary once the circulation center becomes better defined.

The disturbance is currently in an environment of moderate
southwesterly shear and upper-level divergence caused by the
upper-level low and a shortwave trough extending from the low
eastward to the southeastern Bahamas. The shear should gradually
diminish during the next couple of days, which should allow the
disturbance to develop into a tropical cyclone and intensify. The
large-scale models forecast the shear to increase after 72 h as a
mid-latitude westerly trough moves through the southeastern United
States and approaches the system. The new intensity forecast is
similar to the previous forecast through 72 h, then it is stronger
than the previous forecast due to the forecast track keeping the
system more over water.


Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical-storm-force winds and heavy rainfall to portions of the
northwestern Bahamas today and Saturday. Significant storm surge is
not expected in the northwest Bahamas from this system. Residents
there should follow any advice given by local officials.

2. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds to portions of
the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents there should
monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by
local officials.

3. Heavy rainfall is possible from Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine
across portions of eastern Florida into this weekend, which could
produce flash flooding. There is greater uncertainty than usual in
heavy rainfall prospects farther north across the Carolinas.

4. Note that forecast uncertainty for these disturbances is
generally larger than for tropical cyclones, especially beyond 48-72
hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0900Z 24.6N 75.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/1800Z 25.1N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H 14/0600Z 26.0N 77.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 14/1800Z 27.0N 79.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0600Z 28.2N 80.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0600Z 30.3N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 17/0600Z 31.0N 80.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 18/0600Z 32.0N 78.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-13 08:59

WTNT34 KNHC 130857
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH EXTENDED NORTHWARD ON THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.6N 75.2W
ABOUT 255 MI...410 KM ESE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from the Volusia-Brevard
County line to the Flagler-Volusia County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Flagler-Volusia County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings may
be required for portions of this area later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,
including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the
United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
24.6 North, longitude 75.2 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected
to continue with some increase in forward speed through the
weekend. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move
across the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along or
over the east coast of Florida Saturday and Saturday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the
disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a
tropical storm during the next day or so.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
tropical storm to form within the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwestern Bahamas later today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula
by Saturday or Saturday night.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...2 to 4 inches, isolated maximum amounts 6 inches.
The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida into South
Carolina...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwestern Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-13 08:59

WTNT24 KNHC 130857
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE VOLUSIA-BREVARD
COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER-VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET TO FLAGLER-VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY
BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA LATER TODAY.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 75.2W AT 13/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 75.2W AT 13/0900Z
AT 13/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 74.9W

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.1N 76.2W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.0N 77.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.0N 79.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 28.2N 80.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 30.3N 81.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0600Z 31.0N 80.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 32.0N 78.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.6N 75.2W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/1200Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

2019-09-13 05:37

WTNT34 KNHC 130535
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 2A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
200 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.1N 74.9W
ABOUT 290 MI...465 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Volusia-Brevard County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the poorly defined center of the
disturbance was located by satellite and surface observations near
latitude 24.1 North, longitude 74.9 West. The disturbance is moving
northwestward at about 3 mph (5 km/h), and this general motion is
expected to continue with an increase in forward speed through the
weekend. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move
across the central and northwestern Bahamas today, and along or
over the east coast of Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression
or a tropical storm during the next day or so.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
tropical storm to form within the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwest Bahamas by late today. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula
by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated maximum amounts around 7
inches.

The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida through southeastern
Georgia...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwest Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

>

2019-09-13 03:59

WTNT82 EGRR 130358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 13.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 112.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2019 0 16.4N 112.7W 1003 29
1200UTC 13.09.2019 12 16.4N 114.2W 1001 29
0000UTC 14.09.2019 24 17.2N 116.0W 997 42
1200UTC 14.09.2019 36 17.5N 117.9W 992 45
0000UTC 15.09.2019 48 17.7N 119.7W 992 45
1200UTC 15.09.2019 60 17.8N 121.2W 992 44
0000UTC 16.09.2019 72 18.3N 123.0W 991 46
1200UTC 16.09.2019 84 18.5N 124.5W 994 43
0000UTC 17.09.2019 96 19.0N 126.0W 997 39
1200UTC 17.09.2019 108 19.7N 127.5W 1002 29
0000UTC 18.09.2019 120 20.3N 129.2W 1005 29
1200UTC 18.09.2019 132 20.9N 131.5W 1006 28
0000UTC 19.09.2019 144 21.1N 133.9W 1008 27

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 23.6N 75.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2019 0 23.6N 75.0W 1010 21
1200UTC 13.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 13.2N 132.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2019 12 13.2N 132.6W 1007 24
0000UTC 14.09.2019 24 13.6N 133.4W 1007 26
1200UTC 14.09.2019 36 13.5N 133.4W 1006 26
0000UTC 15.09.2019 48 13.2N 133.1W 1005 29
1200UTC 15.09.2019 60 13.4N 132.5W 1004 31
0000UTC 16.09.2019 72 13.8N 132.2W 1003 30
1200UTC 16.09.2019 84 14.1N 132.0W 1004 29
0000UTC 17.09.2019 96 14.8N 131.9W 1004 31
1200UTC 17.09.2019 108 14.5N 131.3W 1005 29
0000UTC 18.09.2019 120 14.8N 130.3W 1005 27
1200UTC 18.09.2019 132 15.4N 129.2W 1007 24
0000UTC 19.09.2019 144 16.1N 129.0W 1008 19

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.7N 148.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2019 48 12.5N 148.1W 1007 25
1200UTC 15.09.2019 60 13.4N 149.9W 1007 26
0000UTC 16.09.2019 72 13.6N 151.2W 1007 25
1200UTC 16.09.2019 84 13.6N 152.8W 1006 26
0000UTC 17.09.2019 96 14.3N 154.4W 1006 25
1200UTC 17.09.2019 108 14.4N 154.9W 1006 28
0000UTC 18.09.2019 120 15.1N 155.4W 1006 28
1200UTC 18.09.2019 132 15.6N 155.8W 1005 29
0000UTC 19.09.2019 144 16.5N 155.9W 1003 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.8N 78.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2019 48 27.8N 78.4W 1009 32
1200UTC 15.09.2019 60 29.0N 79.1W 1007 36
0000UTC 16.09.2019 72 30.1N 78.7W 999 53
1200UTC 16.09.2019 84 30.3N 77.6W 989 60
0000UTC 17.09.2019 96 30.5N 76.1W 979 63
1200UTC 17.09.2019 108 30.7N 74.6W 967 64
0000UTC 18.09.2019 120 30.9N 72.4W 956 80
1200UTC 18.09.2019 132 31.2N 69.8W 944 86
0000UTC 19.09.2019 144 32.0N 66.6W 934 92

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 12.2N 49.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 108 12.2N 49.5W 1009 26
0000UTC 18.09.2019 120 13.3N 51.1W 1006 31
1200UTC 18.09.2019 132 13.5N 53.2W 1003 33
0000UTC 19.09.2019 144 14.3N 54.6W 1001 35

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.5N 37.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 108 15.5N 37.5W 1008 26
0000UTC 18.09.2019 120 16.1N 39.8W 1006 32
1200UTC 18.09.2019 132 17.2N 42.1W 1002 43
0000UTC 19.09.2019 144 18.4N 44.3W 1000 47

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 17.6N 166.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.09.2019 108 17.6N 166.4W 1004 30
0000UTC 18.09.2019 120 17.5N 166.8W 1003 28
1200UTC 18.09.2019 132 18.2N 166.6W 1002 27
0000UTC 19.09.2019 144 19.3N 167.2W 1002 32


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 130358

>

2019-09-13 03:59

WTNT80 EGRR 130358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 13.09.2019

TROPICAL STORM KIKO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 112.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP132019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2019 16.4N 112.7W WEAK
12UTC 13.09.2019 16.4N 114.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2019 17.2N 116.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2019 17.5N 117.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2019 17.7N 119.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 17.8N 121.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 18.3N 123.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 18.5N 124.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2019 19.0N 126.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 19.7N 127.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 20.3N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 20.9N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 21.1N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 23.6N 75.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2019 23.6N 75.0W WEAK
12UTC 13.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 13.2N 132.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2019 13.2N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2019 13.6N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2019 13.5N 133.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 13.2N 133.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 13.4N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 13.8N 132.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 14.1N 132.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2019 14.8N 131.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 14.5N 131.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 14.8N 130.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 15.4N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 16.1N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 11.7N 148.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2019 12.5N 148.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 13.4N 149.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 13.6N 151.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 13.6N 152.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 17.09.2019 14.3N 154.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 17.09.2019 14.4N 154.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 18.09.2019 15.1N 155.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 15.6N 155.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 16.5N 155.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 27.8N 78.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2019 27.8N 78.4W WEAK
12UTC 15.09.2019 29.0N 79.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 30.1N 78.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 16.09.2019 30.3N 77.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 17.09.2019 30.5N 76.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 17.09.2019 30.7N 74.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 18.09.2019 30.9N 72.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 18.09.2019 31.2N 69.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 19.09.2019 32.0N 66.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 12.2N 49.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 12.2N 49.5W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2019 13.3N 51.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 13.5N 53.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 14.3N 54.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 15.5N 37.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 15.5N 37.5W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2019 16.1N 39.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 17.2N 42.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 18.4N 44.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 17.6N 166.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 17.09.2019 17.6N 166.4W WEAK
00UTC 18.09.2019 17.5N 166.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 18.09.2019 18.2N 166.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 19.09.2019 19.3N 167.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 130358

>

2019-09-13 02:59

WTNT44 KNHC 130257
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft earlier this afternoon
found a closed but very broad cyclonic circulation along with
1000-ft flight-level and SFMR surface winds that supported an
intensity of 25 kt. Recent ship reports also support an intensity of
25 kt, although stronger winds could be present in some of the
fragmented convective bands located in the northeastern quadrant.

The initial motion is an uncertain 310/02 kt. The disturbance has
been meandering over the southeastern Bahamas the past several hours
due to southwesterly mid-/upper-level winds associated with an
east-west oriented shortwave trough impinging on the west side of
the circulation. A large upper-low located over the central Gulf of
Mexico that has produced this shortwave trough is expected to spin
out another trough on Friday that will move across South Florida and
the Straits, impinging on the disturbance and hindering any
significant northwestward motion. By late Friday and Saturday,
however, the upper-level is expected to have moved into the western
Gulf of Mexico, ending any negative effects in the disturbance. This
expected to result in the formation of a tropical cyclone with a
deeper vortex column that should get steered basically northwestward
in combined deep-layer southeasterly flow between the upper-low to
the west and a ridge to the northeast. The new NHC track forecast is
basically just an extension of the previous forecast track, albeit a
little slower, and lies down the middle of the widely divergent
guidance envelope, close to the various simple consensus models, and
to the right of the NOAA-HCCA consensus model.

The aforementioned complex steering flow pattern will also play a
major role in the intensification process. The two shortwaves
troughs are expected to hinder significant convective organization
for the next 24-30 hours due to their localized increase in the
vertical shear and intrusions of dry air. By 36 hours and beyond,
however, those negative factors are forecast to abate, resulting in
the disturbance moving underneath an axis of strong upper-level
difluence and speed divergence near or just to the east of the
Florida east coast. This more favorable upper-level outflow regime
should allow for convection to develop and organize fairly quickly
around the center before the system reaches the Florida east coast,
which should result in the formation of a moderate tropical storm.
Although the center is forecast to be inland at 72-96 hours, the
center is expected be close enough to the coast to keep
tropical-storm-force ongoing over the coastal waters through 120
hours. The official intensity forecast is identical to the previous
advisory and follows a blend of the consensus models HCCA and IVCN.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas
within 36 hours. Note that forecast uncertainty for these
disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.

2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and
heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and
Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest
Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall
to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents
there should monitor the progress of this system.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 23.8N 74.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/1200Z 24.6N 75.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
24H 14/0000Z 25.5N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 14/1200Z 26.5N 78.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 27.5N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 29.8N 81.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 17/0000Z 30.8N 81.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
120H 18/0000Z 31.8N 79.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-13 02:58

WTNT34 KNHC 130256
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MEANDERING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 74.5W
ABOUT 320 MI...520 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 240 MI...390 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the coast
of east-central Florida from Jupiter Inlet northward to the
Volusia-Brevard County line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Jupiter Inlet to Volusia-Brevard County line

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere along the east coast of Florida should monitor
the progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the poorly defined center of the
disturbance was located by satellite and surface observations near
the disturbance was centered near latitude 23.8 North, longitude
74.5 West. The disturbance has been meandering over the
southeastern Bahamas. However, the system is expected to move slowly
northwestward on Friday, and continue that motion through the
weekend. On the forecast track, the system is anticipated to move
across the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday, and along or
over the east coast of Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression or a
tropical storm during the next day or so.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
tropical storm to form within the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwest Bahamas by late Friday. Tropical storm
conditions are possible in the watch area on the Florida peninsula
by Saturday.

RAINFALL: The potential tropical cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall accumulations through Sunday:

The Bahamas...3 to 5 inches, isolated maximum amounts around 7
inches.

The U.S. Southeast Coast from central Florida through southeastern
Georgia...2 to 4 inches.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwest Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-13 02:58

WTNT24 KNHC 130256
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 13 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST
OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET NORTHWARD TO THE
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JUPITER INLET TO VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 74.5W AT 13/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 74.5W AT 13/0300Z
AT 13/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 74.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.6N 75.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 25.5N 77.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 26.5N 78.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 27.5N 80.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 29.8N 81.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 30SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 30.8N 81.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 31.8N 79.8W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 74.5W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0600Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-12 23:47

WTNT34 KNHC 122345
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 1A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
800 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATIONARY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...
...TROPICAL CYCLONE EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
BY THE WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 74.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the poorly defined center of the
disturbance was located by satellite, surface observations, and
reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 74.8
West. The disturbance has been stationary over the southeastern
Bahamas. The system is expected to move slowly toward the northwest
by early Friday, and this motion is forecast to continue during the
next 2 days. On this track, the system is anticipated to move across
the central and northwestern Bahamas on Friday, and along or over
the east coast of Florida on Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher
gusts. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical depression
or a tropical storm during the next day or so.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
tropical storm to form within the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwest Bahamas by late Friday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday over the Bahamas and along
the east coast of Florida north of West Palm Beach. Isolated maximum
amounts of 7 inches are possible in the northwest and central
Bahamas.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwest Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-12 20:48

WTNT44 KNHC 122046
TCDAT4

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

The disturbance in the southeastern Bahamas has not developed a
closed circulation yet, but the cloud pattern is gradually becoming
better organized. An Air Force plane is currently approaching the
disturbance, and will give NHC more details on the structure of the
system. Advisories are being initiated on this system as a
Potential Tropical Cyclone to allow for the issuance of a tropical
storm warning for a portion of the northwest Bahamas after
consultation with the meteorological service of that country.

The system is still under the influence of strong shear caused by an
upper-level low in the Gulf of Mexico. As the disturbance moves away
from the upper low, conditions are expected to be a little more
conducive for development as indicated in the intensity forecast.
With the exception of the GFS, which forecasts a vigorous trough
crossing Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, the remainder of the
global models develop a tropical cyclone near the northwestern
Bahamas and move it as an intensifying system very close to the east
coast of Florida. The NHC forecast opted for the solution of these
latter models, however, it is emphasized that given the model
discrepancy, both the track and intensity forecasts are highly
uncertain, more than usual I would say.

Key Messages:

1. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm and bring
tropical storm force winds to portions of the northwest Bahamas
within 36 hours. As a result, advisories have been initiated on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. Note that forecast uncertainty for
these disturbances is generally larger than for tropical cyclones,
especially beyond 48-72 hours.

2. The system is expected to bring tropical-storm-force winds and
heavy rainfall to portions of the northwest Bahamas on Friday and
Saturday. Significant storm surge is not expected in the northwest
Bahamas from this system. Residents there should follow any advice
given by local officials.

3. The system could bring tropical-storm-force winds and rainfall
to portions of the Florida east coast over the weekend. Residents
there should monitor the progress of this system.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 23.7N 74.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 13/0600Z 24.5N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 25.5N 77.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H 14/0600Z 26.5N 78.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 27.5N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 16/1800Z 31.0N 82.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 17/1800Z 31.5N 80.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-12 20:47

WTNT34 KNHC 122045
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092019
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 12 2019

...A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO FORM NEAR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 74.8W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM SE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SE OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of the Bahamas has issued a Tropical Storm Warning
for the following islands in the northwestern Bahamas the Abacos,
Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New
Providence.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Northwestern Bahamas excluding Andros Island

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

Interests along the east coast of Florida should monitor the
progress of this system.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
23.7 North, longitude 74.8 West. The system is expected to move
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion is
forecast to continue during the next 2 days. On this track, the
system is anticipated to move across the northwestern Bahamas on
Friday, and along or over the east coast of central Florida on
Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The disturbance is forecast to become tropical depression or a
tropical storm during the next day or so.

Environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression or
tropical storm to form within the next day or two.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in the northwest Bahamas by late Friday.

RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce total rain accumulations
of 2 to 4 inches through Sunday over the Bahamas and along
the east coast of Florida north of West Palm Beach. Isolated maximum
amounts of 7 inches are possible in the northwest and central
Bahamas.

STORM SURGE: This system is not expected to product significant
storm surge in the northwest Bahamas.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Avila

>

2019-09-12 20:47

WTNT24 KNHC 122045
TCMAT4

POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092019
2100 UTC THU SEP 12 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ISLANDS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS THE
ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 74.8W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 74.8W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 74.8W

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.5N 76.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.5N 77.2W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 26.5N 78.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 27.5N 80.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 31.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 31.5N 80.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 74.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 13/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

>