Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for GABRIELLE-19
in Ireland, United Kingdom

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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2019-09-10 16:01

WTNT82 EGRR 101600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 10.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 46.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2019 0 14.0N 46.6W 1013 21
0000UTC 11.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 104.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2019 0 12.9N 104.2W 1009 20
0000UTC 11.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 43.3N 39.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 10.09.2019 0 43.3N 39.1W 1001 50
0000UTC 11.09.2019 12 45.5N 33.8W 1011 34
1200UTC 11.09.2019 24 49.4N 27.0W 1012 32
0000UTC 12.09.2019 36 52.9N 17.1W 1012 30
1200UTC 12.09.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.9N 113.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2019 48 14.9N 113.5W 1005 26
0000UTC 13.09.2019 60 15.6N 115.5W 1002 28
1200UTC 13.09.2019 72 16.1N 117.4W 1000 30
0000UTC 14.09.2019 84 16.9N 119.8W 996 41
1200UTC 14.09.2019 96 17.6N 121.9W 992 46
0000UTC 15.09.2019 108 18.6N 123.8W 994 47
1200UTC 15.09.2019 120 19.7N 125.8W 999 40
0000UTC 16.09.2019 132 21.1N 127.8W 1003 32
1200UTC 16.09.2019 144 22.0N 130.0W 1006 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.5N 127.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2019 60 12.4N 127.3W 1005 26
1200UTC 13.09.2019 72 12.5N 127.8W 1005 30
0000UTC 14.09.2019 84 13.0N 128.4W 1004 31
1200UTC 14.09.2019 96 13.6N 128.9W 1002 34
0000UTC 15.09.2019 108 14.7N 129.4W 1000 44
1200UTC 15.09.2019 120 15.3N 129.6W 999 43
0000UTC 16.09.2019 132 16.3N 129.0W 1001 37
1200UTC 16.09.2019 144 18.2N 128.5W 1003 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 29.2N 152.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2019 120 29.1N 153.0W 1012 26
0000UTC 16.09.2019 132 29.1N 155.6W 1011 26
1200UTC 16.09.2019 144 28.5N 158.6W 1011 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.1N 141.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2019 120 10.1N 141.5W 1008 23
0000UTC 16.09.2019 132 10.3N 142.0W 1007 22
1200UTC 16.09.2019 144 10.6N 142.1W 1006 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.4N 156.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 132 14.3N 157.3W 1006 26
1200UTC 16.09.2019 144 13.9N 157.9W 1005 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 27.3N 91.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 132 27.4N 92.5W 1007 30
1200UTC 16.09.2019 144 28.1N 93.3W 1005 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 31.1N 41.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 16.09.2019 132 31.1N 41.7W 1012 35
1200UTC 16.09.2019 144 31.0N 39.8W 1007 32


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101559

>

2019-09-10 16:01

WTNT80 EGRR 101559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 10.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 46.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.09.2019 14.0N 46.6W WEAK
00UTC 11.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90E ANALYSED POSITION : 12.9N 104.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP902019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.09.2019 12.9N 104.2W WEAK
00UTC 11.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 43.3N 39.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 10.09.2019 43.3N 39.1W WEAK
00UTC 11.09.2019 45.5N 33.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2019 49.4N 27.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2019 52.9N 17.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 14.9N 113.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.09.2019 14.9N 113.5W WEAK
00UTC 13.09.2019 15.6N 115.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2019 16.1N 117.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2019 16.9N 119.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2019 17.6N 121.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2019 18.6N 123.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 19.7N 125.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2019 21.1N 127.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 22.0N 130.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 54 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 54 : 12.5N 127.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2019 12.4N 127.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2019 12.5N 127.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2019 13.0N 128.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2019 13.6N 128.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 14.7N 129.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 15.3N 129.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 16.3N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 18.2N 128.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 29.2N 152.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2019 29.1N 153.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 16.09.2019 29.1N 155.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 28.5N 158.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 10.1N 141.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2019 10.1N 141.5W WEAK
00UTC 16.09.2019 10.3N 142.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 10.6N 142.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.4N 156.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.09.2019 14.3N 157.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 13.9N 157.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 27.3N 91.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.09.2019 27.4N 92.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 16.09.2019 28.1N 93.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 31.1N 41.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 16.09.2019 31.1N 41.7W WEAK
12UTC 16.09.2019 31.0N 39.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101559

>

2019-09-10 14:46

WTNT43 KNHC 101444
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 10 2019

Gabrielle has now completed its transition to an extratropical
cyclone this morning based on the latest GOES-16 satellite imagery.
The center of the storm has now become exposed with convection
displaced to the north of the center, and a well-defined baroclinic
zone has become established in association with the low center.
Thus Gabrielle is now an extratropical low, and this is the latest
advisory on this system. The intensity remains 45 knots based on
scatterometer data and TAFB Dvorak intensity estimates. Models are
in excellent agreement that the cyclone will move northeastward and
slowly weaken through midweek with the system evolving into an open
trough and dissipating beyond 36 hours prior to reaching the British
Isles.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/1500Z 43.9N 37.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 11/0000Z 45.9N 33.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/1200Z 49.2N 25.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 12/0000Z 52.5N 16.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Hamrick/Blake

>

2019-09-10 14:46

WTNT33 KNHC 101443
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 10 2019

...GABRIELLE BECOMES AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.9N 37.8W
ABOUT 695 MI...1115 KM NW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Gabrielle was located near latitude 43.9 North, longitude 37.8 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph
(46 km/h), and this general motion with an increase in forward
speed is expected over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gabrielle is expected to weaken over the next two days and dissipate
over the far North Atlantic west of the British Isles on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml

$$
Forecaster Hamrick/Blake

>

2019-09-10 14:45

WTNT23 KNHC 101442
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC TUE SEP 10 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 37.8W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 110SE 110SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 360SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.9N 37.8W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.2N 39.2W

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 45.9N 33.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 49.2N 25.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 120SE 120SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 52.5N 16.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.9N 37.8W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER HAMRICK/BLAKE

>

2019-09-10 08:36

WTNT43 KNHC 100834
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 10 2019

Gabrielle's extratropical transition is well underway. Deep
convection is now confined to an area near and to the north of
the center, and a baroclinic zone is already impinging upon the
circulation. The initial wind speed has been maintained at
45 kt, which was in agreement with earlier scatterometer data. The
cyclone should become fully extratropical later this morning, and
the global models indicate that gradual weakening will occur after
that time. As a result, the NHC forecast shows steady weakening
after 12 hours, and calls for the system to dissipate in a little
more than 2 days as it approaches the northern British Isles.

Gabrielle has become embedded within the mid-latitude flow and is
now moving northeastward at 22 kt. The cyclone is forecast to
continue accelerating northeastward during the next day or so until
dissipation occurs. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to
the previous advisory and lies near the middle of the tightly
cluster model guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 43.4N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 45.2N 36.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/0600Z 48.3N 29.8W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/1800Z 51.8N 21.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0600Z 55.0N 11.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-10 08:34

WTNT33 KNHC 100832
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 28
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Tue Sep 10 2019

...GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LATER THIS
MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.4N 40.2W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 MPH...41 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 43.4 North, longitude 40.2 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the northeast near 25 mph (41 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is expected over the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast this morning, but a weakening
trend is likely to begin tonight or Tuesday. Gabrielle is expected
to become an extratropical low this morning and dissipate over the
far North Atlantic near the northern British Isles on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-10 08:34

WTNT23 KNHC 100832
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 28
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 10 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.4N 40.2W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 22 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 300SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.4N 40.2W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 42.8N 41.5W

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 45.2N 36.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.3N 29.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 120SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 51.8N 21.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 140SE 90SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 55.0N 11.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.4N 40.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-10 03:59

WTNT82 EGRR 100358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 10.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 45.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2019 0 13.7N 45.2W 1014 20
1200UTC 10.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 41.2N 44.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 10.09.2019 0 41.2N 44.1W 996 52
1200UTC 10.09.2019 12 43.5N 39.1W 1002 56
0000UTC 11.09.2019 24 45.5N 34.0W 1011 35
1200UTC 11.09.2019 36 49.0N 27.4W 1012 33
0000UTC 12.09.2019 48 52.0N 17.8W 1014 29
1200UTC 12.09.2019 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 14.1N 110.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2019 48 14.5N 111.1W 1001 32
1200UTC 12.09.2019 60 15.3N 113.2W 997 40
0000UTC 13.09.2019 72 16.3N 115.3W 993 45
1200UTC 13.09.2019 84 17.2N 117.6W 987 51
0000UTC 14.09.2019 96 18.2N 120.2W 991 50
1200UTC 14.09.2019 108 18.8N 122.7W 997 39
0000UTC 15.09.2019 120 19.6N 125.4W 999 43
1200UTC 15.09.2019 132 19.9N 128.3W 1003 38
0000UTC 16.09.2019 144 19.4N 130.4W 1005 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.1N 126.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2019 72 12.4N 126.3W 1006 25
1200UTC 13.09.2019 84 12.5N 126.6W 1005 30
0000UTC 14.09.2019 96 12.8N 126.8W 1004 33
1200UTC 14.09.2019 108 13.6N 126.5W 1002 36
0000UTC 15.09.2019 120 14.8N 125.4W 1001 43
1200UTC 15.09.2019 132 17.5N 124.9W 1001 38
0000UTC 16.09.2019 144 19.8N 126.6W 1005 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 26.8N 145.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2019 84 27.6N 145.5W 1011 23
0000UTC 14.09.2019 96 28.3N 146.9W 1011 25
1200UTC 14.09.2019 108 29.7N 149.3W 1011 28
0000UTC 15.09.2019 120 29.9N 151.9W 1009 29
1200UTC 15.09.2019 132 30.2N 154.3W 1009 32
0000UTC 16.09.2019 144 29.9N 157.0W 1007 30

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.7N 136.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2019 132 11.7N 136.4W 1007 24
0000UTC 16.09.2019 144 12.1N 135.7W 1006 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100358

>

2019-09-10 03:59

WTNT80 EGRR 100358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 45.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.09.2019 13.7N 45.2W WEAK
12UTC 10.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 41.2N 44.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.09.2019 41.2N 44.1W MODERATE
12UTC 10.09.2019 43.5N 39.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2019 45.5N 34.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2019 49.0N 27.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2019 52.0N 17.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 14.1N 110.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.09.2019 14.5N 111.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.09.2019 15.3N 113.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 13.09.2019 16.3N 115.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2019 17.2N 117.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2019 18.2N 120.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2019 18.8N 122.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2019 19.6N 125.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 19.9N 128.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 19.4N 130.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 66 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 66 : 12.1N 126.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2019 12.4N 126.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2019 12.5N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2019 12.8N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2019 13.6N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 14.8N 125.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 17.5N 124.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 19.8N 126.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 26.8N 145.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2019 27.6N 145.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2019 28.3N 146.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2019 29.7N 149.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 29.9N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 30.2N 154.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2019 29.9N 157.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.7N 136.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2019 11.7N 136.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 16.09.2019 12.1N 135.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 100358

>

2019-09-10 02:35

WTNT43 KNHC 100233
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 09 2019

Gabrielle's convection has waned considerably since the previous
advisory, and the cloud pattern now has a disheveled appearance that
is becoming more reminiscent of an extratropical low pressure
system. However, a recent 2246Z ASCAT-A scatterometer pass indicated
that the tropical storm has maintained a very robust surface wind
field, with peak winds still at 45 kt and a radius of maximum winds
of 45-50 nmi.

The initial motion estimate is 055/21 kt, based primarily on passive
microwave and scatterometer satellite fixes. Gabrielle is now well
embedded in the high-latitude westerlies, and an additional increase
in forward speed toward the northeast or east-northeast is expected
over the next 2 days. By 72 hours, Gabrielle is forecast to
dissipate near the northern British Isles.

Gabrielle is currently located over sub-25 deg C sea-surface
temperatures and within a strong vertical wind shear regime of near
30 kt. With much colder water and stronger southwesterly shear ahead
of the cyclone, extratropical transition now appears likely to occur
within the next 12 hours. The intensity forecast is similar to the
previous advisory, and is a blend of the statistical SHIPS intensity
models, and the GFS and ECMWF dynamical model wind fields.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0300Z 42.1N 43.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/1200Z 44.0N 39.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 11/0000Z 46.6N 34.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/1200Z 50.1N 27.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0000Z 54.0N 16.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-10 02:34

WTNT33 KNHC 100232
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 PM AST Mon Sep 09 2019

...GABRIELLE MOVING QUICKLY OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE TUESDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...42.1N 43.1W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 42.1 North, longitude 43.1 West.
Gabrielle is moving toward the northeast near 24 mph (39 km/h), and
this general motion with an increase in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast tonight and early
Monday, but a weakening trend is likely to begin by early Tuesday.
Gabrielle is expected to become an extratropical low Tuesday morning
and dissipate over the far North Atlantic near the northern British
Isles on Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center based on recent satellite-derived wind data.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-10 02:34

WTNT23 KNHC 100231
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 10 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 43.1W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 110SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 180SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 42.1N 43.1W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 41.5N 44.2W

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 44.0N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 46.6N 34.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 50.1N 27.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 110SE 110SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 54.0N 16.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 42.1N 43.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-09 20:35

WTNT43 KNHC 092033
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Mon Sep 09 2019

Satellite imagery continues to show symmetric convection around the
center of Gabrielle despite some gradual warming in the cloud tops
seen in the latest GOES infrared imagery. The initial wind speed was
maintained at 45 kt, near the TAFB satellite estimate and a little
above the SAB estimate.

Gabrielle remains on a northeastward motion and is moving a bit
faster than the previous advisory, or 040/18 kt. The system is
expected to further increase in forward speed in a similar direction
over the next couple of days due to strengthening southwesterly flow
near a mid-latitude trough. Only a slight northward adjustment was
made to the prior NHC forecast since, overall, model guidance
remains tightly clustered with the track of Gabrielle.

The storm has less than a day over marginally warm waters
before it crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream and into much
colder waters. Gabrielle should transition into an extratropical low
on Tuesday night as a result of an increase in shear and
low-level baroclinicity from an approaching cold front. The
intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous
forecast and continues to use a blend of the GFS and ECMWF model
wind fields.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 40.7N 45.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 42.6N 42.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1800Z 45.1N 37.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 11/0600Z 48.2N 31.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1800Z 52.0N 22.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Taylor/Blake

>

2019-09-09 20:35

WTNT33 KNHC 092033
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM AST Mon Sep 09 2019

...GABRIELLE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.7N 45.4W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WNW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 40.7 North, longitude 45.4 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and this general
motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast over the next
couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected tonight, but a
weakening trend is likely to begin Tuesday. Gabrielle is expected
to become an extratropical low by Tuesday night and dissipate over
the far North Atlantic Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Taylor/Blake

>

2019-09-09 20:33

WTNT23 KNHC 092031
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
2100 UTC MON SEP 09 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 45.4W AT 09/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 18 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.7N 45.4W AT 09/2100Z
AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 46.4W

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 42.6N 42.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 45.1N 37.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.2N 31.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 120SE 120SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 52.0N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.7N 45.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER TAYLOR/BLAKE

>

2019-09-09 16:00

WTNT82 EGRR 091559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 09.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 43.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2019 0 13.7N 43.2W 1015 21
0000UTC 10.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 38.6N 48.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 09.09.2019 0 38.6N 48.0W 990 53
0000UTC 10.09.2019 12 41.4N 43.9W 991 58
1200UTC 10.09.2019 24 43.6N 38.6W 1001 50
0000UTC 11.09.2019 36 45.6N 33.3W 1010 36
1200UTC 11.09.2019 48 48.9N 27.2W 1013 31
0000UTC 12.09.2019 60 52.1N 17.6W 1015 27
1200UTC 12.09.2019 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.7N 111.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2019 60 14.7N 111.7W 1005 30
1200UTC 12.09.2019 72 15.2N 114.0W 1003 31
0000UTC 13.09.2019 84 16.0N 116.3W 1000 34
1200UTC 13.09.2019 96 16.6N 118.6W 998 39
0000UTC 14.09.2019 108 17.7N 120.9W 997 44
1200UTC 14.09.2019 120 18.4N 123.3W 994 44
0000UTC 15.09.2019 132 18.9N 126.1W 998 40
1200UTC 15.09.2019 144 19.1N 129.0W 1001 38

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 27.8N 145.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2019 96 28.5N 145.5W 1009 28
0000UTC 14.09.2019 108 30.0N 146.7W 1008 32
1200UTC 14.09.2019 120 30.8N 149.3W 1009 32
0000UTC 15.09.2019 132 31.2N 151.9W 1009 33
1200UTC 15.09.2019 144 31.3N 154.9W 1008 34

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.4N 125.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2019 96 12.4N 125.8W 1007 28
0000UTC 14.09.2019 108 12.5N 126.2W 1006 30
1200UTC 14.09.2019 120 13.2N 125.6W 1006 31
0000UTC 15.09.2019 132 14.5N 124.5W 1006 38
1200UTC 15.09.2019 144 16.7N 124.0W 1009 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.8N 132.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 15.09.2019 132 12.1N 132.5W 1008 28
1200UTC 15.09.2019 144 12.4N 131.4W 1008 24

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 34.5N 42.3W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 15.09.2019 144 34.5N 42.3W 1010 38


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091559

>

2019-09-09 16:00

WTNT80 EGRR 091559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 43.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2019 13.7N 43.2W WEAK
00UTC 10.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 38.6N 48.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 09.09.2019 38.6N 48.0W MODERATE
00UTC 10.09.2019 41.4N 43.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2019 43.6N 38.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2019 45.6N 33.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2019 48.9N 27.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2019 52.1N 17.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 14.7N 111.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.09.2019 14.7N 111.7W WEAK
12UTC 12.09.2019 15.2N 114.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2019 16.0N 116.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2019 16.6N 118.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2019 17.7N 120.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2019 18.4N 123.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 18.9N 126.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2019 19.1N 129.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 27.8N 145.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2019 28.5N 145.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 14.09.2019 30.0N 146.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2019 30.8N 149.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 31.2N 151.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 31.3N 154.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 12.4N 125.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2019 12.4N 125.8W WEAK
00UTC 14.09.2019 12.5N 126.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2019 13.2N 125.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 14.5N 124.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 16.7N 124.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 11.8N 132.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 15.09.2019 12.1N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 15.09.2019 12.4N 131.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 34.5N 42.3W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 15.09.2019 34.5N 42.3W WEAK


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 091559

>

2019-09-09 14:54

WTNT43 KNHC 091451
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 09 2019

Satellite images indicate that deep convection has increased
overnight and become more symmetric around the center of Gabrielle.
Still, ASCAT data show maximum winds of only about 40 kt,
suggestive that this convective burst hasn't changed the intensity
much. The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, near the TAFB
satellite estimate and a little above the ASCAT data to account for
undersampling.

Gabrielle has turned northeastward and picked up some speed.
The system is expected to move at an increasing pace in a similar
direction over the next few days as it is picked up by a
mid-latitude trough. Model guidance is tightly clustered around
the previous NHC prediction, and no significant changes were made
to the prior NHC track forecast.

The storm has about a day over marginally warm waters before it
crosses the north wall of the Gulf Stream into much colder waters.
Gabrielle is forecast to transition into an extratropical low by
Tuesday due to an increase in shear and baroclinicity from an
approaching cold front. The intensity forecast was reduced
slightly from the previous one and is in close agreement with a
blend of the GFS/ECMWF wind speed forecasts, which should best
handle this extratropical transition scenario.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/1500Z 39.0N 47.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 40.9N 44.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 43.4N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 11/0000Z 46.4N 34.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/1200Z 50.1N 26.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z 57.5N 5.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Taylor/Blake

>

2019-09-09 14:45

WTNT33 KNHC 091442 CCA
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 25...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM AST Mon Sep 09 2019

Corrected headers

...GABRIELLE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.0N 47.3W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1765 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 39.0 North, longitude 47.3 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this
general motion with an increase in forward speed is forecast over
the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected today, but a weakening
trend is likely to begin Tuesday. Gabrielle is expected to become
an extratropical low by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Taylor/Blake

>

2019-09-09 14:36

WTNT23 KNHC 091432
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC MON SEP 09 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 47.3W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 180SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.0N 47.3W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 48.0W

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 40.9N 44.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 43.4N 40.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 100SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 46.4N 34.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 120SE 120SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 50.1N 26.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 57.5N 5.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.0N 47.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER TAYLOR/BLAKE

>

2019-09-09 08:36

WTNT43 KNHC 090834
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 09 2019

Deep convection associated with Gabrielle has become somewhat
less organized overnight with the center located near the
northeastern portion of the coldest cloud tops. There is still
banding present over the southern and southwestern portions of the
circulation but it has become fragmented. Gabrielle has likely
peaked in intensity, and the latest satellite estimates and earlier
ASCAT data support an initial intensity of 50 kt for this advisory.
Little change in intensity is expected today while Gabrielle remains
over warm water and within a moderate shear environment. By
tonight, decreasing SSTs and increasing southerly shear should
begin to cause gradual weakening. Shortly after that time,
the global models indicate Gabrielle will become embedded within a
baroclinic zone and become extratropical. The extratropical low is
predicted to slowly weaken and be absorbed by a larger low pressure
system over the northeastern Atlantic in a little more than 3 days.

Gabrielle has turned north-northeastward with an initial motion
estimate of 015/14 kt. Gabrielle should turn northeastward today
and begin to accelerate ahead of a broad mid-level trough
approaching the central Atlantic. Once the cyclone is fully
embedded within the mid-latitude westerlies, an additional
acceleration toward the northeast is expected. There is good
agreement among the dynamical models, and the updated NHC track
forecast is similar to the previous advisory. The official forecast
track remains between the TVCA and HCCA consensus models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0900Z 37.7N 48.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/1800Z 39.7N 46.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 10/0600Z 42.2N 42.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 10/1800Z 44.8N 38.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 11/0600Z 48.1N 31.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0600Z 55.8N 12.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-09 08:36

WTNT33 KNHC 090834
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Mon Sep 09 2019

...GABRIELLE TURNS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD...
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...37.7N 48.5W
ABOUT 1170 MI...1885 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 37.7 North, longitude 48.5 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
today, and a northeastward motion at an even faster forward speed is
expected on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today, but a weakening trend
is likely to begin tonight. Gabrielle is expected to become an
extratropical low by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-09 08:35

WTNT23 KNHC 090833
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
0900 UTC MON SEP 09 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 48.5W AT 09/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 210SE 180SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 48.5W AT 09/0900Z
AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 37.1N 49.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 39.7N 46.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 42.2N 42.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 44.8N 38.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.1N 31.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 55.8N 12.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 48.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-09 04:01

WTNT82 EGRR 090359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 09.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 41.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.09.2019 0 15.5N 41.1W 1015 21
1200UTC 09.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.0N 49.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 09.09.2019 0 36.0N 49.3W 992 53
1200UTC 09.09.2019 12 38.8N 47.8W 990 52
0000UTC 10.09.2019 24 41.9N 43.8W 992 61
1200UTC 10.09.2019 36 44.2N 37.9W 1003 46
0000UTC 11.09.2019 48 46.1N 32.2W 1011 34
1200UTC 11.09.2019 60 49.3N 26.2W 1014 29
0000UTC 12.09.2019 72 52.3N 16.6W 1015 27
1200UTC 12.09.2019 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 16.2N 112.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2019 84 16.2N 112.9W 1006 25
0000UTC 13.09.2019 96 15.8N 115.1W 1004 28
1200UTC 13.09.2019 108 16.4N 117.0W 1004 28
0000UTC 14.09.2019 120 16.9N 118.8W 1004 33
1200UTC 14.09.2019 132 17.2N 120.9W 1004 30
0000UTC 15.09.2019 144 17.7N 123.1W 1006 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.3N 125.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2019 96 13.3N 125.2W 1006 23
1200UTC 13.09.2019 108 13.0N 125.8W 1006 26
0000UTC 14.09.2019 120 13.4N 126.5W 1006 26
1200UTC 14.09.2019 132 13.1N 127.2W 1005 30
0000UTC 15.09.2019 144 13.6N 126.8W 1003 33

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 26.4N 145.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2019 108 27.0N 145.9W 1010 25
0000UTC 14.09.2019 120 28.0N 146.5W 1008 33
1200UTC 14.09.2019 132 29.1N 148.8W 1001 44
0000UTC 15.09.2019 144 29.2N 151.9W 999 45

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 16.6N 43.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2019 120 16.6N 43.8W 1010 30
1200UTC 14.09.2019 132 17.8N 46.7W 1007 33
0000UTC 15.09.2019 144 18.9N 49.6W 1004 36


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 090359

>

2019-09-09 04:00

WTNT80 EGRR 090359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 09.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 41.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.09.2019 15.5N 41.1W WEAK
12UTC 09.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 36.0N 49.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 09.09.2019 36.0N 49.3W MODERATE
12UTC 09.09.2019 38.8N 47.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2019 41.9N 43.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2019 44.2N 37.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2019 46.1N 32.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2019 49.3N 26.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2019 52.3N 16.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 84 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 84 : 16.2N 112.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.09.2019 16.2N 112.9W WEAK
00UTC 13.09.2019 15.8N 115.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2019 16.4N 117.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2019 16.9N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2019 17.2N 120.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 17.7N 123.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 13.3N 125.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2019 13.3N 125.2W WEAK
12UTC 13.09.2019 13.0N 125.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2019 13.4N 126.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2019 13.1N 127.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 13.6N 126.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 26.4N 145.7W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2019 27.0N 145.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2019 28.0N 146.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2019 29.1N 148.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2019 29.2N 151.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 16.6N 43.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2019 16.6N 43.8W WEAK
12UTC 14.09.2019 17.8N 46.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 15.09.2019 18.9N 49.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 090359

>

2019-09-09 02:34

WTNT43 KNHC 090232
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

Gabrielle's cloud pattern has not become better organized since
earlier today. The central convection has become a little more
fragmented, and the center is estimated to be near the northern
side of the main area of convection. There is a well-defined
upper-level outflow jet over the southern portion of the
circulation. The initial intensity is held at 55 kt in agreement
with the latest Dvorak Current Intensity number from TAFB, although
this may be generous given a recent ASCAT overpass of the storm.
Gabrielle's window for additional strengthening should soon close,
since the cyclone will be over warm waters for less than 24 hours,
and the dynamical models indicate a significant increase in vertical
shear during the next day or so. Therefore, only a slight
short-term increase in strength seems likely. The official
intensity forecast is in fairly good agreement with the latest
corrected consensus guidance, HCCA. By 48 hours, the global models
depict the cyclone as embedded within a baroclinic zone over the
mid-latitudes of the Atlantic. Therefore, the official forecast
shows Gabrielle becoming extratropical by that time. By 96 hours,
the system should become absorbed by a large low pressure system at
high latitudes.

The initial motion is northward, or 360/13 kt. The track forecast
philosophy is basically unchanged. Over the next 1 to 2 days,
Gabrielle should turn northeastward and accelerate as it moves
around the northwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered near
the Azores. Later on, the cyclone should accelerate further within
the mid-latitude west-southwesterly flow. The official forecast is
very close to the previous NHC track, and close to the corrected
consensus prediction.

Based on the ASCAT data, the 34-kt wind radii over the southern
semicircle of the circulation were increased a bit.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/0300Z 36.5N 49.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/1200Z 38.6N 47.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 10/0000Z 41.1N 44.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 10/1200Z 43.6N 40.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 11/0000Z 46.5N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/0000Z 54.5N 18.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-09 02:33

WTNT33 KNHC 090231
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...GABRIELLE MOVING NORTHWARD...
...EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND ACCELERATE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.5N 49.3W
ABOUT 1225 MI...1975 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 36.5 North, longitude 49.3 West.
Gabrielle is moving toward the north near 15 mph (24 km/h). A turn
toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected
by Monday night, and a northeastward motion at an even faster
forward speed is expected on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is expected through Monday
morning, but a weakening trend is likely to begin by Monday
evening. Gabrielle is expected to become an extratropical low by
Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-09-09 02:33

WTNT23 KNHC 090231
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
0300 UTC MON SEP 09 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 49.3W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 180SE 240SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 49.3W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.9N 49.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.6N 47.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 41.1N 44.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 43.6N 40.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 46.5N 35.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 54.5N 18.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.5N 49.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-09-08 20:34

WTNT43 KNHC 082032
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

The convective structure of Gabrielle now consists of a very well
defined curved band that envelops the center, which is evident by
recent microwave data as well as satellite imagery. An earlier
scatterometer pass partially sampled the eastern semicircle of the
cyclone and indicated the tropical storm force winds had expanded to
90 n mi from the center in the northeastern quadrant. The latest
subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB has increased to 55
kt, which will the initial intensity for this advisory.

Gabrielle will continue to move over warm SSTs and in a moderately
favorable atmospheric environment for the next 24 hours. Based on
these factors and the improved structure of the cyclone today, some
slight strengthening is expected into tonight. Although not
implicitly shown in the forecast, it is possible that Gabrielle may
reach hurricane intensity sometime tonight or early tomorrow. By
tomorrow afternoon, the cyclone will move over cooler waters and
southwesterly shear will increase, which should cause a weakening
trend to begin. By 48 hours, Gabrielle is expected to merge with a
cold front and become an extratropical cyclone. The official
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one, and is near
the corrected consensus HCCA.

The anticipated recurvature has begun and the initial motion is now
350/14 kt. Gabrielle will turn to the northeast by Monday as the
system rounds the western periphery of a mid-level ridge centered
near the Azores. Once Gabrielle turns northeastward, it will become
embedded in the increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the
approaching mid-latitude trough, which will accelerate the cyclone's
forward motion. The official forecast was nudged a little west from
the previous advisory due to a slight westward shift in the
tightly clustered track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/2100Z 35.3N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 09/0600Z 37.3N 48.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1800Z 40.0N 46.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0600Z 42.5N 42.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/1800Z 45.2N 37.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 11/1800Z 52.3N 21.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-08 20:33

WTNT33 KNHC 082031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 PM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...GABRIELLE SLOWLY STRENGTHENING AND EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEAST
LATER TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.3N 49.4W
ABOUT 1250 MI...2015 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 35.3 North, longitude 49.4 West. A turn to
the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected to begin
Monday morning, with a further increase in forward speed occurring
through Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible through tonight.
Gradual weakening is expected to begin Monday and Gabrielle is
expected to transition to an extratropical low by Tuesday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-08 20:33

WTNT23 KNHC 082031
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 49.4W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 150SE 210SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.3N 49.4W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 49.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.3N 48.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 40.0N 46.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 42.5N 42.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 45.2N 37.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 52.3N 21.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.3N 49.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-08 15:58

WTNT82 EGRR 081558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 08.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 36.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2019 0 15.6N 36.9W 1015 21
0000UTC 09.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4N 48.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 08.09.2019 0 33.4N 48.9W 991 54
0000UTC 09.09.2019 12 36.1N 49.1W 997 48
1200UTC 09.09.2019 24 39.0N 47.8W 998 45
0000UTC 10.09.2019 36 41.7N 43.6W 1001 50
1200UTC 10.09.2019 48 43.8N 38.2W 1007 44
0000UTC 11.09.2019 60 45.6N 33.1W 1012 33
1200UTC 11.09.2019 72 49.2N 27.0W 1012 31
0000UTC 12.09.2019 84 52.9N 16.4W 1013 29
1200UTC 12.09.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 16.2N 116.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2019 108 16.2N 116.4W 1006 27
1200UTC 13.09.2019 120 15.8N 118.6W 1002 35
0000UTC 14.09.2019 132 16.1N 120.8W 999 36
1200UTC 14.09.2019 144 16.7N 123.2W 998 40

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.6N 39.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2019 120 15.6N 39.6W 1009 31
0000UTC 14.09.2019 132 17.2N 43.8W 1008 34
1200UTC 14.09.2019 144 18.6N 47.1W 1005 38


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081558

>

2019-09-08 15:58

WTNT80 EGRR 081558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 08.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 36.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2019 15.6N 36.9W WEAK
00UTC 09.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 33.4N 48.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 08.09.2019 33.4N 48.9W MODERATE
00UTC 09.09.2019 36.1N 49.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2019 39.0N 47.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2019 41.7N 43.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2019 43.8N 38.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 11.09.2019 45.6N 33.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2019 49.2N 27.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2019 52.9N 16.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 16.2N 116.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2019 16.2N 116.4W WEAK
12UTC 13.09.2019 15.8N 118.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2019 16.1N 120.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2019 16.7N 123.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 15.6N 39.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2019 15.6N 39.6W WEAK
00UTC 14.09.2019 17.2N 43.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2019 18.6N 47.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 081558

>

2019-09-08 14:54

WTNT43 KNHC 081452
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

Gabrielle continues to show signs of becoming better organized.
Deep convection now wraps about two-thirds of the way around the
center of circulation, and microwave imagery shows a distinct curved
band on the western semicircle. A blend of the various satellite
intensity estimates support holding the initial intensity at 50 kt.
However, this value may be a little conservative.

The tropical storm will continue to be in a moderately favorable
environment for intensification over the next 24 hours or so. And,
based on the improving presentation of Gabrielle since late
last night, some intensification seems likely during that time.
After 24 to 36 hours, increasing southwesterly shear will begin to
impact the cyclone as a mid-latitude trough approaches the region,
and the system will move over cooler waters. This should cause a
gradual weakening trend to begin. After 48 hours, Gabrielle is
expected to merge with a cold front and become an extratropical
cyclone. The official forecast intensity has been increased slightly
through 36 hours out of respect for the near term likelihood for
intensification. Otherwise, the forecast is similar to the previous
one, and is in agreement with the various consensus aids.

The initial motion is 330/10kt. Gabrielle will turn to the north
later today and then northeast by Monday as the system rounds the
western periphery of a mid-level ridge centered near the Azores.
Once Gabrielle turns northeastward, it will become embedded in the
increasing southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching mid-latitude
trough, which will accelerate the cyclone's forward motion. The
official forecast is little changed from the previous one, and is
near the tightly clustered track guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/1500Z 33.8N 49.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 09/0000Z 35.6N 49.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 09/1200Z 38.4N 47.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 10/0000Z 41.2N 43.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 10/1200Z 43.7N 39.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/1200Z 50.1N 24.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/1200Z 57.8N 5.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-08 14:53

WTNT33 KNHC 081451
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...GABRIELLE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.8N 49.0W
ABOUT 1260 MI...2030 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 33.8 North, longitude 49.0 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn
to the north is forecast later today, followed by a turn to the
northeast on Monday with an increase in forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is possible through Monday. Gabrielle is then
expected to weaken starting Monday night as it begins a transition
to become an extratropical low.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-08 14:53

WTNT23 KNHC 081451
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 49.0W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 33.8N 49.0W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.2N 49.0W

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.6N 49.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.4N 47.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 41.2N 43.8W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 43.7N 39.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 50.1N 24.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 70SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 57.8N 5.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 33.8N 49.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-08 08:35

WTNT43 KNHC 080832
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

Gabrielle has become a little better organized overnight. The
storm now has well-defined curved bands, especially to the south
of the center, with some evidence of an inner core trying to form.
The initial intensity is nudged upward to 50 kt, which is between
the Dvorak classification from TAFB and the latest satellite
consensus estimate from the CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin.
Earlier ASCAT data revealed that Gabrielle is a compact storm with
its tropical-storm-force winds only extending out to about 60 n mi
from the center.

The tropical storm is gradually turning to the right, with the
initial motion estimated to be northwestward at 11 kt. The system
is located near the southwestern periphery of a mid-level ridge
centered near the Azores, and it should be moving around the
western side of that ridge later today and tonight. This should
cause Gabrielle to turn northward with some increase in forward
speed during that time. An even faster northeastward motion is
expected on Monday and Tuesday as Gabrielle, or its post-tropical
remnants, become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies. The
track models are in fairly good agreement, and only minor
adjustments were made to the previous forecast.

Gabrielle could strengthen a little more today while it remains
over warm water and in generally favorable atmospheric conditions.
However, the combined influences of increasing southerly shear and
cooler waters should end the chances of intensification on Monday.
The global models are in agreement that Gabrielle should become
extratropical when it merges with a cold front that is associated
with Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian in a little more than 2 days.
The extratropical low is expected to gradually weaken and
ultimately dissipate in 4 to 5 days. The NHC intensity forecast is
largely an update of the previous one and in line with the majority
of the intensity guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0900Z 32.7N 48.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 08/1800Z 34.3N 49.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 09/0600Z 37.1N 48.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1800Z 40.1N 45.7W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0600Z 42.7N 41.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0600Z 48.1N 28.6W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0600Z 56.0N 10.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-08 08:34

WTNT33 KNHC 080832
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Sun Sep 08 2019

...GABRIELLE STRENGTHENS A LITTLE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.7N 48.6W
ABOUT 1265 MI...2040 KM W OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 32.7 North, longitude 48.6 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). The storm
is forecast to turn northward over the central Atlantic later today
and then accelerate northeastward into the north Atlantic Monday and
Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some additional strengthening is forecast today. Gabrielle is
forecast to become an extratropical low and begin weakening on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-08 08:34

WTNT23 KNHC 080831
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 48.6W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.7N 48.6W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 48.3W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.3N 49.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.1N 48.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 40.1N 45.7W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 42.7N 41.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 48.1N 28.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 80SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 56.0N 10.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.7N 48.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-08 03:59

WTNT82 EGRR 080359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 08.09.2019

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 45.3N 62.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2019 0 45.3N 62.8W 959 55
1200UTC 08.09.2019 12 49.3N 60.7W 957 55
0000UTC 09.09.2019 24 51.5N 55.5W 975 50
1200UTC 09.09.2019 36 54.2N 49.5W 983 37
0000UTC 10.09.2019 48 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 130.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2019 0 24.5N 130.1W 1009 30
1200UTC 08.09.2019 12 24.5N 132.4W 1012 27
0000UTC 09.09.2019 24 24.5N 134.6W 1013 27
1200UTC 09.09.2019 36 24.5N 136.7W 1015 26
0000UTC 10.09.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 32.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2019 0 15.4N 32.5W 1015 20
1200UTC 08.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AKONI ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 158.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2019 0 11.5N 158.3W 1007 24
1200UTC 08.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 47.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 08.09.2019 0 32.0N 47.0W 993 51
1200UTC 08.09.2019 12 33.3N 48.8W 987 54
0000UTC 09.09.2019 24 35.9N 49.4W 988 54
1200UTC 09.09.2019 36 39.1N 48.0W 981 62
0000UTC 10.09.2019 48 42.5N 43.3W 979 69
1200UTC 10.09.2019 60 45.5N 35.7W 1002 48
0000UTC 11.09.2019 72 47.1N 28.1W 1013 31
1200UTC 11.09.2019 84 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 16.1N 114.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2019 120 16.3N 116.1W 1002 35
1200UTC 13.09.2019 132 16.4N 118.2W 1001 33
0000UTC 14.09.2019 144 17.1N 120.4W 1001 35

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 25.8N 146.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2019 120 25.8N 146.2W 1010 24
1200UTC 13.09.2019 132 25.5N 147.9W 1010 23
0000UTC 14.09.2019 144 25.3N 149.5W 1010 26

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.5N 37.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2019 132 14.9N 39.4W 1007 32
0000UTC 14.09.2019 144 16.2N 43.4W 1006 37

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 15.7N 158.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2019 144 15.7N 158.6W 1006 25

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 37.3N 8.2E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.09.2019 144 38.6N 8.0E 1014 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080358

>

2019-09-08 03:59

WTNT80 EGRR 080358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.09.2019

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 45.3N 62.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2019 45.3N 62.8W INTENSE
12UTC 08.09.2019 49.3N 60.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 51.5N 55.5W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.09.2019 54.2N 49.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2019 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.5N 130.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2019 24.5N 130.1W WEAK
12UTC 08.09.2019 24.5N 132.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 24.5N 134.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 24.5N 136.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.4N 32.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2019 15.4N 32.5W WEAK
12UTC 08.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AKONI ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 158.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2019 11.5N 158.3W WEAK
12UTC 08.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 32.0N 47.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 08.09.2019 32.0N 47.0W MODERATE
12UTC 08.09.2019 33.3N 48.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2019 35.9N 49.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 39.1N 48.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2019 42.5N 43.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2019 45.5N 35.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.09.2019 47.1N 28.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 16.1N 114.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2019 16.3N 116.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 13.09.2019 16.4N 118.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2019 17.1N 120.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 25.8N 146.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2019 25.8N 146.2W WEAK
12UTC 13.09.2019 25.5N 147.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2019 25.3N 149.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.5N 37.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2019 14.9N 39.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2019 16.2N 43.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 15.7N 158.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2019 15.7N 158.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 37.3N 8.2E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 14.09.2019 38.6N 8.0E WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 080358

>

2019-09-08 02:34

WTNT43 KNHC 080232
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

Microwave data indicate that Gabrielle has a well-organized central
core. However, the convection isn't very deep, perhaps because of
dry air entrainment, with most of the convection in a band southeast
of the center. The initial intensity is kept at 45 kt, which
agrees well with an ASCAT-B pass of 40-45 kt and the latest TAFB
fix.

The storm is moving steadily west-northwestward around the
southwestern side of a mid-level high over the eastern Atlantic.
This high is forecast to slide eastward as the westerlies intensify
due to flow around Gabrielle's southern flank in the far north
Atlantic. Models are in very good agreement overall, but there
continues to be some speed differences. The NHC forecast is on the
faster side of the guidance, near the NOAA corrected-consensus
guidance and the previous forecast, since the typical error in the
higher latitudes is to be too slow.

The low-shear area that was supposed to materialize in the
subtropical Atlantic near Gabrielle this weekend did not occur, and
as a result there is very little guidance suggesting that the
cyclone will become a hurricane. The storm still has a day or two
to strengthen over relatively warm waters before shear increases
markedly, and water temperatures plummet north of the Gulf Stream.
The intensity forecast is reduced about 5 kt from the previous one
at 36-48 h, although still above the model consensus, and is similar
thereafter. All models still show extratropical transition by 72 h
and dissipation by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 32.0N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/1200Z 33.4N 49.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 09/0000Z 35.8N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/1200Z 38.8N 47.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 10/0000Z 41.7N 43.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 11/0000Z 47.0N 31.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 12/0000Z 54.5N 13.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-08 02:34

WTNT33 KNHC 080231
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.0N 48.0W
ABOUT 1255 MI...2020 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 32.0 North, longitude 48.0 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the west-northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h). The storm
is forecast to turn northward over the central Atlantic by Sunday
night and then accelerate northeastward into the north Atlantic
Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast on Sunday. Gabrielle is
forecast to become an extratropical low and begin weakening on
Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-08 02:33

WTNT23 KNHC 080231
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
0300 UTC SUN SEP 08 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 48.0W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 48.0W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.8N 47.4W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.4N 49.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.8N 49.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 38.8N 47.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 41.7N 43.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 47.0N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 100SE 80SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 54.5N 13.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 48.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-07 20:37

WTNT43 KNHC 072035
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

Gabrielle is still a disorganized tropical cyclone. The center is
definitely more apparent--after its morning re-formation--but it
appears to be wobbling around within a larger oval-shaped
circulation. Most of the deep convection is also displaced to the
west and southwest of the center due to about 20 kt of easterly
shear. The initial intensity remains 45 kt based on earlier
scatterometer data.

The cyclone has been rotating around the northeastern side of a mid-
to upper-level low, but as this low weakens, Gabrielle is expected
to recurve around the western side of a mid-tropospheric high
located near the Azores. Gabrielle should then get picked up by
the mid-latitude westerlies in about 48 hours, at which point it
will accelerate northeastward toward the north Atlantic. The track
models remain in good agreement on Gabrielle's future trajectory,
but there are some speed differences, particularly between the
faster GFS and slower ECMWF once the cyclone becomes extratropical.
The updated NHC forecast splits the difference, lying near the
various consensus models, which makes it just a little west of the
previous forecast during the first 36 hours.

Gabrielle has about another 36 hours over waters that are 26C or
warmer, but the moderate-to-strong vertical shear currently
affecting the system is likely to continue, and then increase
significantly starting in 48 hours. Therefore, only modest
strengthening is anticipated, and the NHC intensity forecast is
now near the high end of the intensity models. All the global
models indicate that Gabrielle should become an extratropical
cyclone by 72 hours, and then it should dissipate by 120 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 31.9N 46.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0600Z 32.9N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/1800Z 34.9N 49.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 09/0600Z 37.7N 48.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/1800Z 40.8N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1800Z 46.0N 33.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 11/1800Z 52.0N 17.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-07 20:37

WTNT23 KNHC 072034
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 46.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 20SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.9N 46.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 45.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.9N 48.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 34.9N 49.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 37.7N 48.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 40.8N 45.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 46.0N 33.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 90SE 70SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 52.0N 17.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.9N 46.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-07 20:36

WTNT33 KNHC 072034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...GABRIELLE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.9N 46.5W
ABOUT 1180 MI...1895 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 31.9 North, longitude 46.5 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). The storm
is forecast to recurve over the central Atlantic during the next
day or two and then accelerate northeastward into the north
Atlantic Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
Gabrielle is forecast to become an extratropical low and begin
weakening on Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-07 16:16

WTNT43 KNHC 071614
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Special Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1230 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

ASCAT data received just as the previous advisory was issued
revealed that Gabrielle's center had re-formed closer to the deep
convection, and is about a degree west of where it was previously
estimated. This new center is also now more evident in visible
satellite imagery. The updated position deviates from the
previously issued forecast track by a large enough distance to
require the issuance of a special advisory.

Based on the re-formation of the center, the longer-term motion is
estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/19 kt. The forecast
track has been shifted about a degree westward to account for the
corresponding westward relocation of the center. The initial wind
radii have been adjusted based on the ASCAT data, which led to an
update in the forecast wind radii as well. The initial intensity
of 45 kt was confirmed by the scatterometer data, so no changes
were made to the intensity forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1630Z 31.4N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 32.4N 46.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 34.0N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 36.5N 49.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 39.4N 47.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 45.0N 38.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 51.5N 23.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-07 16:15

WTNT33 KNHC 071613
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Special Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1230 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...GABRIELLE'S CENTER RE-FORMS FARTHER WEST...


SUMMARY OF 1230 PM AST...1630 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 45.2W
ABOUT 1125 MI...1815 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1230 PM AST (1630 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 45.2 West.
Gabrielle is moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35
km/h). A northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected
to begin by this evening and continue through Sunday. Gabrielle is
then forecast to recurve toward the north and northeast on Monday
and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-07 16:15

WTNT23 KNHC 071613
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
1630 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 45.2W AT 07/1630Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 20SE 50SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 45.2W AT 07/1630Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 44.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.4N 46.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 20SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 34.0N 48.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 70SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.5N 49.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.4N 47.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 90SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.0N 38.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 51.5N 23.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 45.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-07 14:50

WTNT43 KNHC 071448
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

Gabrielle's structure does not look healthy this morning. The
low-level circulation appears elongated, and it's difficult from
visible satellite imagery alone to identify a well-defined center.
The initial intensity is held at 45 kt, mainly based on continuity
and satellite estimates from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON.
We will analyze just-received ASCAT data and make modifications in
the afternoon advisory if necessary.

Gabrielle is swinging around the northeastern side of a mid- to
upper-level low, which has imparted a rather fast northwestward
motion of 310/15 kt. A generally northwestward trajectory should
continue for the next 24 hours while Gabrielle remains positioned
between the deep-layer low and high pressure to its northeast.
After that time, Gabrielle should recurve around the high and then
become embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies beginning in 48
hours. That steering regime should induce a northeastward
acceleration over the north Atlantic. Despite the cyclone's
uncertain initial position, the track models are tightly clustered,
and the NHC track forecast was placed close to a consensus of the
GFS and ECMWF models. This new forecast largely lies right on top
of the previous one.

Gabrielle's environment never really becomes ideal for
strengthening. For the next 24 hours, upper-level divergence and
moderate easterly shear should continue over the system. By
48 hours, vertical shear is expected to increase further, and
Gabrielle will be moving over sub-26C waters as it heads toward the
north Atlantic. Based on these conditions, some strengthening is
still shown in the official forecast, but it has been lowered from
the previous advisory to match the latest intensity guidance.
Based on the global model fields and phase-space diagrams,
Gabrielle is forecast to be fully extratropical by day 4, if not
sooner, and the system is likely to dissipate in the westerlies as
it heads toward the British Isles.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 31.4N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 32.4N 45.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/1200Z 34.1N 47.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 09/0000Z 36.5N 47.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 09/1200Z 39.4N 46.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 10/1200Z 45.0N 37.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 11/1200Z 51.5N 22.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-07 14:49

WTNT33 KNHC 071447
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...GABRIELLE REMAINS DISORGANIZED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.4N 43.7W
ABOUT 1050 MI...1690 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 31.4 North, longitude 43.7 West.
Gabrielle is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A
west-northwestward or northwestward motion is expected through
Sunday. Gabrielle is then forecast to recurve toward the north and
northeast on Monday and Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-07 14:49

WTNT23 KNHC 071447
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 43.7W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 70SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N 43.7W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.1N 43.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.4N 45.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 0SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 34.1N 47.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 36.5N 47.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 39.4N 46.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 45.0N 37.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 90SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 51.5N 22.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N 43.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-07 08:39

WTNT43 KNHC 070837
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

Gabrielle's cloud pattern has temporarily degraded over the past
several hours. With the vertical shear pattern shifting from the
east, the shrinking, shapeless, convective mass is displaced to the
west of the surface circulation. A blend of the Dvorak subjective
satellite T-numbers yields a current intensity estimate of 35 kt,
and a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate as well as an AMSU-A analysis come
in at 39 kt. The initial intensity is generously above these data
and is set at 45 kt out of respect for the earlier scatterometer
wind analysis.

Gabrielle has moved to the northeast of the upper cut-off low which
has been producing a moderate to strong southerly shear
environment over the past several days. The upper wind pattern in
this quadrant of the upper low is more easterly, and although still
quite strong, a little more diffluent. This slightly more favorable
flow aloft, along with increasingly warmer sea surface temperatures
in the region, should allow Gabrielle to gradually strengthen during
the next 2 to 3 days. Toward the end of the forecast period,
weakening is forecast to commence as the cyclone turns northeastward
and quickly moves within deep-layer strong southwesterly flow
associated with an approaching mid-latitude baroclinic frontal
zone. Interaction with the frontal system as well as the cyclone
traversing significantly decreasing oceanic temperatures (less than
20C), should induce a rather rapid extratropical transition around
day 5. The NHC intensity forecast is an update of the previous one
is above all of the guidance with the exception of the HWRF.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/15 kt.
Azores high pressure to the northeast of Gabrielle is forecast to
build over the north central Atlantic, causing the cyclone to turn
west-northwestward later today. Afterward, southwesterly flow
downstream from the aforementioned front should force Gabrielle to
turn northward and northeastward on Sunday and Monday, respectively.
A slight adjustment to the left of the previous forecast was made
through the entire forecast in order to align more with the NOAA
HFIP HCCA model.

Some adjustments to the wind radii were made based on a 06 Sep
2320 UTC ASCAT-A/B ambiguity analysis.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 30.9N 42.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 31.9N 44.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 33.3N 46.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 35.4N 47.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 38.0N 47.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 43.6N 40.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 11/0600Z 50.7N 26.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 12/0600Z 59.4N 7.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-07 08:38

WTNT33 KNHC 070836
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...GABRIELLE TEMPORARILY STRUGGLING OVER THE OPEN CENTRAL
ATLANTIC...
...STRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO RESUME TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.9N 42.1W
ABOUT 990 MI...1590 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 30.9 North, longitude 42.1 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected later today. A turn to the north is then
forecast on Sunday, followed by a turn to the northeast with an
increase in forward speed on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast and Gabrielle is
expected to become a hurricane by Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-07 08:38

WTNT23 KNHC 070836
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 42.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......160NE 70SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 42.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 41.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 31.9N 44.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...170NE 80SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 33.3N 46.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 35.4N 47.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 38.0N 47.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 43.6N 40.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 50.7N 26.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 59.4N 7.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.9N 42.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-07 02:35

WTNT43 KNHC 070233
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019

Deep convection has persisted mainly over the northern semicircle of
Gabrielle since this afternoon, but has been trying to move a little
closer to the low-level center. The subjective intensity estimate
from TAFB suggests slight strengthening has occurred since the
previous advisory, and a recent scatterometer pass measured a
cluster of 45-kt winds. Assuming some slight undersampling in that
area by the scatterometer, the initial advisory intensity has been
increased to 50 kt.

The shear that continues to impact Gabrielle is forecast to decrease
through Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the cyclone will me moving over
waters near 29 C. And, although some dry air will continue to
surround the circulation, the cyclone should be able to gradually
strengthen over the next few days due to the other favorable
environmental conditions. After 72 hours, increasing southwesterly
shear and cooler SSTs will cause the cyclone to weaken. An
approaching mid-latitude trough, courtesy of Dorian, will help
transition Gabrielle to an extratropical cyclone by the end of the
forecast period. The only notable change to the intensity forecast
from the previous advisory was to make Gabrielle a hurricane a
little earlier, and the official advisory is very near the corrected
consensus HCCA.

Gabrielle has been moving to the northwest, or 320/16 kt. A turn to
the west-northwest is expected to occur on Saturday as the
subtropical ridge to the northeast of Gabrielle builds westward. The
aforementioned mid-latitude trough will begin to turn Gabrielle to
the north on Sunday night, then accelerate the cyclone to the
northeast from Monday through the end of the forecast period. The
official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and near the
tightly clustered consensus guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 29.3N 40.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 30.9N 42.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 32.1N 45.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 33.7N 47.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 35.7N 48.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 40.5N 44.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 47.0N 34.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 56.1N 16.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-07 02:34

WTNT33 KNHC 070232
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019

...GABRIELLE INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 40.9W
ABOUT 1000 MI...1605 KM WSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 29.3 North, longitude 40.9 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the northwest near 18 mph (30 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest is expected on Saturday. A turn to the north is then
forecast on Sunday, followed by a turn to the northeast with an
increase in forward speed on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady strengthening is forecast and Gabrielle is expected to
become a hurricane by Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-07 02:34

WTNT23 KNHC 070232
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 40.9W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......180NE 80SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 40.9W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.8N 40.2W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 30.9N 42.9W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...170NE 80SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.1N 45.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 40SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.7N 47.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...140NE 80SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 35.7N 48.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 40.5N 44.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 47.0N 34.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 56.1N 16.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 40.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-06 20:38

WTNT43 KNHC 062036
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019

Gabrielle has become somewhat better organized during the past few
hours, with a better-defined surface circulation moving closer to a
large burst of convection in the northern semicircle. There has
been little change in the intensity estimates, so the initial wind
speed will stay 40 kt on this advisory.

The storm continues to move to the northwest at about 15 kt. A
large subtropical ridge to the northeast of Gabrielle is forecast to
build westward, forcing the tropical cyclone to turn west-
northwestward on Saturday. After that time, southwesterly flow
ahead of Hurricane Dorian should turn Gabrielle quickly northward
and northeastward by early next week. Other than some minor speed
differences, the models continue to be tightly packed. The new
NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one, and
it lies near the NOAA corrected-consensus model.

Southerly shear currently near Gabrielle is forecast to relax by
late tomorrow, at about the same time that it moves over very warm
waters near 29C. This should promote strengthening, and it is
possible that Gabrielle could intensify quickly near recurvature.
By 96 h, the cyclone should move north of the Gulf Stream, with
increasing shear. These conditions should cause a fast extratropical
transition between 96-120 h. The new NHC prediction is raised at 48
and 72 hours, and it should be noted that quite a few models show
Gabrielle becoming a category 2 hurricane at some point during that
time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 27.9N 39.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 29.3N 41.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 30.8N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 32.2N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 33.9N 48.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 38.5N 46.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 44.0N 38.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 53.0N 23.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-06 20:37

WTNT33 KNHC 062035
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 PM AST Fri Sep 06 2019

...GABRIELLE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 39.6W
ABOUT 1010 MI...1620 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 39.6 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed are expected
on Saturday. Gabrielle is forecast to gradually turn to the
northwest and north on Sunday, then move at a faster pace to the
northeast on Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Gabrielle
is anticipated to become a hurricane by late Sunday or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-06 20:35

WTNT23 KNHC 062033
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 39.6W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.9N 39.6W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 39.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.3N 41.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 30SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.8N 44.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 32.2N 47.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.9N 48.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 38.5N 46.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 80SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 44.0N 38.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 53.0N 23.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.9N 39.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-06 14:37

WTNT43 KNHC 061435
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019

Although Gabrielle was without organized deep convection for most
of the past 24 hours, deep convection has quickly re-developed near
and to the north of the center this morning. In addition, recent
ASCAT data indicate that the winds have increased since last night,
suggesting that tropical-cyclone intensification processes are
ongoing. While normally we would wait a little longer to restart the
cyclone, since the previous advisory and this one show the potential
for significant strengthening, advisories are being re-initiated so
that marine warnings that were already in place could remain. The
initial intensity is set to 40 kt, in agreement with the ASCAT
winds.

The storm is moving faster to the northwest this morning, or
320/15. A large ridge to the northeast of Gabrielle is forecast to
build to the north, forcing the tropical cyclone to turn west-
northwestward on Saturday. After that time, southwesterly flow
ahead of Hurricane Dorian should turn Gabrielle quickly northward
and northeastward by early next week. Model guidance is in
remarkably good agreement, and little change was made to the
previous NHC track forecast.

Gabrielle is currently still experiencing strong southerly shear
due to the winds around an upper-level low. However that low is
forecast to drop southwestward, causing the storm to enter a
low-shear region by tomorrow at the same time water temperatures
rise to near 29C. This is a recipe for at least steady
strengthening, and all of the models are much higher than the
previous cycle. The new NHC prediction is increased at long-range
as much as continuity allows and is still below many of the model
forecasts.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 27.3N 38.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 28.9N 40.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 30.7N 43.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 32.1N 46.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 33.4N 48.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 09/1200Z 37.6N 47.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 10/1200Z 42.6N 41.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 11/1200Z 50.0N 29.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-06 14:36

WTNT33 KNHC 061434
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019

...GABRIELLE QUICKLY REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE EARLY NEXT WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.3N 38.7W
ABOUT 1005 MI...1615 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 38.7 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the northwest near 17 mph (28 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed are expected
over the next couple of days. A decrease in forward speed and a
turn to the north are forecast to occur by Sunday morning.

Satellite-derived winds indicate that maximum sustained winds have
increased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gabrielle is
forecast to become a hurricane early next week.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-06 14:36

WTNT23 KNHC 061434
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 38.7W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 75SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.3N 38.7W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 38.1W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 28.9N 40.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 20SE 20SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 30.7N 43.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 32.1N 46.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 40SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.4N 48.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 37.6N 47.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 42.6N 41.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 50.0N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.3N 38.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-06 08:52

WTNT43 KNHC 060850
TCDAT3

Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019

Poorly defined Gabrielle has not produced any organized deep
convection since Thursday morning, and what remains of the showers
and thunderstorms, is displaced nearly 200 miles north of the
elongated surface circulation. Consequently, Gabrielle can no
longer be classified as a tropical cyclone and has degenerated into
a 35 kt post-tropical cyclone.

Statistical-dynamical models, as well as the large-scale guidance,
show that strong shear, along with mid-tropospheric dry air
intrusion, should continue to inhibit convective development during
the next 24 h or so, and cause further weakening into a remnant
low. Around mid-period, the shear is forecast to decrease and the
upper wind pattern becomes more diffluent. Additionally,
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle will be traversing significantly
warmer oceanic sea surface temperatures. As a result, the cyclone
is forecast to redevelop organized deep convection, and more than
likely, re-strengthen. In fact, some of the intensity guidance
shows Gabrielle becoming a hurricane in 4 days before transitioning
into an extratropical cyclone at the end of the period. The NHC
intensity forecast is based on a blend of the HFIP HCCA, and the
deterministic guidance beyond day 3.

The initial motion is estimated to be an accelerating northwestward
motion, or 315/10 kt. The global and regional models are in rather
good agreement that the post-tropical cyclone will gradually turn
toward the west-northwest during the next 48 hours, before recurving
northward and then northeastward early next week in response to an
approaching major shortwave mid-latitude trough from the northwest.
The official forecast track is just a little to the left of the
previous one, and is very close to the TVCA simple multi-model
guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 25.5N 37.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 06/1800Z 27.1N 39.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 07/0600Z 29.2N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 07/1800Z 30.7N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H 08/0600Z 31.9N 47.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0600Z 35.6N 48.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0600Z 40.4N 44.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/0600Z 47.0N 34.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-06 08:51

WTNT33 KNHC 060849
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Gabrielle Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Fri Sep 06 2019

...GABRIELLE BECOMES A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC...
...REGENERATION INTO A TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
WEEKEND...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 37.6W
ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1060 MI...1710 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Gabrielle was located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 37.6 West.
The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph
(19 km/h). A turn to the west-northwest with a slight increase in
forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. A decrease
in forward speed and a turn to the north are forecast to occur by
Sunday morning.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gabrielle is expected to weaken into a post-tropical remnant low by
tonight. Thereafter, slow strengthening is expected to occur
over the weekend, and the remnants of Gabrielle is forecast to
regenerate into a tropical cyclone at that time.

Post-tropical Cyclone Gabrielle, located over 1000 miles southwest
of the Azores, is expected to regenerate into a tropical cyclone
within the next couple of days as the system moves
west-northwestward at 17 mph over the open Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. Additional information on Post-tropical
Cyclone Gabrielle can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-06 08:51

WTNT23 KNHC 060849
TCMAT3

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 37.6W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 37.6W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.9N 37.1W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.1N 39.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 29.2N 41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.7N 44.8W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 31.9N 47.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 35.6N 48.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 40.4N 44.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 47.0N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 37.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON POST-TROPICAL
CYCLONE GABRIELLE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO
HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-06 02:37

WTNT43 KNHC 060234
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 05 2019

The center of Gabrielle has been devoid of deep convection since
late this morning, as dry air and southerly shear have taken their
toll. If this trend continues, then advisories may be discontinued
Friday morning. For the time being, a recent scatterometer pass
showed that 35 kt winds are still occurring in association with
Gabrielle's circulation, and that will be the initial intensity for
this advisory.

SHIPS intensity guidance indicates strong shear will continue to
affect the cyclone for the next 24 to 36 hours. If the circulation
survives this, the shear will diminish. However, it appears that
there will still be dry air to contend with. The forecast calls for
a steady intensity through 36 hours, followed by slow strengthening
as the shear becomes negligible. Late in the forecast period, the
cyclone will move over cooler waters as it begins to transition to
an extratropical cyclone, which should limit any non-baroclinic
intensification beyond 96 hours. The intensity forecast is highly
uncertain, as Gabrielle very well could become a post-tropical
remnant low tomorrow. The convection will have to recover once the
wind shear subsides, and I am skeptical that this will do so with
any haste due to the dry air that is forecast to be in place. The
official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one, and is
below the various consensus aids beyond 36 hours.

Gabrielle has begun to accelerate to the northwest. The forward
speed will increase a little more through Friday morning as the
cyclone is steered between a mid- to upper-level low to its west,
and a subtropical ridge to its east. Later in the forecast period,
Gabrielle will begin to turn northward then northeastward and
accelerate as a mid-latitude trough approaches the cyclone. The
official track forecast is very close to the previous one through 72
hours, and then was nudged slightly to the left beyond that time due
to a shift in the global models and consensus guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 24.3N 36.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 25.7N 38.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 27.9N 40.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 29.7N 42.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 31.1N 45.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 34.3N 48.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/0000Z 38.5N 45.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 11/0000Z 44.5N 38.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-06 02:36

WTNT33 KNHC 060234
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 PM AST Thu Sep 05 2019

...GABRIELLE BARELY HOLDING ON AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 36.6W
ABOUT 995 MI...1605 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1100 MI...1775 KM SW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 36.6 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn to the
west-northwest with a slight increase in forward speed is expected
over the next couple of days. A decrease in forward speed and a turn
to the north are forecast to occur on Sunday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast through Friday. Thereafter,
slow strengthening is expected over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-06 02:36

WTNT23 KNHC 060233
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 36.6W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 75SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.3N 36.6W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 36.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.7N 38.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 60SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.9N 40.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.7N 42.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.1N 45.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 34.3N 48.2W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 38.5N 45.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 44.5N 38.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.3N 36.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-05 20:36

WTNT43 KNHC 052034
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 05 2019

Gabrielle is barely holding on to its status as a tropical cyclone.
The closest deep convection is now displaced over 100 n mi to the
north of the tropical storm's low-level center, and Dvorak
intensity estimates have continued to decrease quickly. Given the
lack of deep convection where the strongest winds were observed in
earlier ASCAT data (not to mention near the cyclone's center), some
weakening has likely occurred since then. The intensity is
therefore set at 40 kt for this advisory.

Very high shear should continue for the next 24 to 36 hours, and it
is unlikely that Gabrielle will become any better organized during
that period. In fact, it can not be ruled out that the cyclone could
briefly become post-tropical due to a lack of deep convection during
that period. However, the shear should decrease in a couple of days,
and the cyclone will then be moving over very warm SSTs. Deep
convection will likely increase over the weekend and some
strengthening is still forecast thereafter. Most of the dynamical
models even suggest that Gabrielle could become a hurricane before
it starts to become extratropical sometime next week. The
statistical guidance isn't nearly as bullish, so the NHC forecast
continues to show only slow strengthening through the end of the
forecast period.

The tropical storm has slowed in the short term, but is forecast by
all of the guidance to accelerate northwestward overnight. The
models remain in very good agreement that Gabrielle will then
continue northwestward for a few days before recurving early next
week ahead of a deep-layer mid-latitude trough. Once again, little
change has been made to the NHC track forecast which is very close
to the multi-model consensus at every forecast hour.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 23.4N 35.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 24.6N 37.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 26.6N 39.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 28.5N 41.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 30.2N 43.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 33.3N 48.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 37.5N 47.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 43.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-05 20:36

WTNT33 KNHC 052034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 PM AST Thu Sep 05 2019

...GABRIELLE STRUGGLING TO MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ITS
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 35.9W
ABOUT 925 MI...1490 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 35.9 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A faster motion
toward the northwest is expected for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength will likely occur during the
next day or two. Slow strengthening is forecast to occur over the
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-05 20:35

WTNT23 KNHC 052033
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 35.9W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 35.9W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 35.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.6N 37.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 60SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.6N 39.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 0SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.5N 41.2W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.2N 43.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 33.3N 48.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 37.5N 47.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 43.0N 40.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 35.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-05 14:46

WTNT43 KNHC 051444
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 05 2019

Gabrielle is struggling due to persistent southeasterly shear. The
low-level center is completely exposed and has become quite
elongated, and the nearest deep convection is displaced almost
60 n mi to the north. And yet, ASCAT-A and B data at 1200 UTC
revealed that the winds have not yet decreased. Both passes showed
winds of 40-45 kt in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone, so the
initial intensity is held at 45 kt.

For the next 36 h or so, Gabrielle will remain in a very unfavorable
environment, and the wind shear is actually expected to increase
according to SHIPS diagnostics from the GFS and ECMWF models. Beyond
that time, the shear is forecast to decrease and Gabrielle will have
a window in which it could strengthen over the weekend. By early
next week, the cyclone is expected to move over much colder SSTs and
will likely begin the process of becoming post-tropical, so further
strengthening is unlikely. The new NHC forecast is generally close
to the previous one, but now allows for some slight short-term
weakening of Gabrielle, given the hostile current environment.

Almost no change was required to the track forecast, which is
merely an update to the previous advisory. Gabrielle should move
generally northwestward toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge
for the next 3 or 4 days before it recurves ahead of a deep-layer
mid-latitude trough approaching from the northwest by the end of the
forecast period. The NHC forecast lies near the middle of the track
guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 22.8N 35.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 23.8N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 25.5N 38.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 27.4N 40.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 29.4N 42.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 33.0N 47.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 37.0N 48.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 42.0N 42.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-05 14:45

WTNT33 KNHC 051443
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 AM AST Thu Sep 05 2019

...GABRIELLE MAINTAINING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 35.5W
ABOUT 885 MI...1420 KM NW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1165 MI...1875 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 35.5 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). A slightly
faster northwestward motion is expected for the next 3 days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight weakening is possible today or tomorrow. Slow
strengthening is then anticipated over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205 miles (335 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-05 14:45

WTNT23 KNHC 051443
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 35.5W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 80SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 35.5W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 35.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.8N 36.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...180NE 0SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.5N 38.1W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 0SE 80SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.4N 40.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 50SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 29.4N 42.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...130NE 50SE 50SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 33.0N 47.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 70SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 37.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 42.0N 42.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 35.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-05 08:56

WTNT43 KNHC 050854
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 05 2019

METEOSAT imagery and an earlier WindSat microwave overpass show
Gabielle's poorly defined center of circulation sheared well to the
south of the curved convective band features to north, indicative of
moderate southerly shear. The initial intensity is held at a
generous 45 kt for this advisory, and is based on the subjective
T-numbers from TAFB and SAB.

Although Gabrielle could experience some intensity fluctuations
during the next 24 hours, the cyclone should remain in a
rather harsh environment during the next 36-48 hours, due to
south to southwesterly vertical shear, some dry air in the middle
portions of the atmosphere, and oceanic sea surface temperatures on
the order of 25-26C. Afterward, gradual strengthening is forecast
as Gabrielle moves into a more favorable upper wind pattern and
warmer SSTs, and this is consistent with the IVCN multi-model
consensus and the Decay SHIPS.

After the adjustment to the south of the previous advisory based
on the ASCAT-A/B scatterometer passes and a recent SSMI/S image, the
initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 315/7 kt. For
the next several days, Gabrielle is expected to move generally
northwestward toward a large weakness in the mid-Atlantic
subtropical ridge. An increase in forward motion is expected as the
steering flow strengthens between a cut-off low to the west and high
pressure to the northeast. Around days 4 and 5, the cyclone should
turn generally northward in response to an approaching
mid-tropospheric short wave trough. An adjustment to the right of
the previous forecast was made, and the NHC forecast is based on a
blend of the various consensus models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 21.9N 35.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 22.7N 35.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 24.2N 37.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 28.0N 41.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 31.6N 46.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 35.8N 48.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 40.6N 44.7W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-05 08:56

WTNT33 KNHC 050853
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Thu Sep 05 2019

...POORLY ORGANIZED GABRIELLE MOVING OVER THE OPEN EASTERN
ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 35.0W
ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1210 MI...1945 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 35.0 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue for the next few days with an increase in
forward speed.

Maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple
of days. Afterward, some slow strengthening is expected to begin
by this weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-05 08:56

WTNT23 KNHC 050853
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 35.0W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 40SE 50SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 35.0W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 34.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.7N 35.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 40SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.2N 37.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 40SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 40SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 28.0N 41.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 40SE 40SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 31.6N 46.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 20SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 35.8N 48.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 40.6N 44.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.9N 35.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-05 02:33

WTNT43 KNHC 050231
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 04 2019

South to southwesterly shear is affecting the overall organization
of Gabrielle this evening. A recent scatterometer pass indicated
that the low-level center was located on the southern edge of
weakening convection, and to the south of a mid-level circulation
apparent in infrared satellite imagery. This same scatterometer pass
showed an expanded wind field in the northwest quadrant as well as
45-kt peak winds, and this initial intensity is in agreement with
the latest subjective satellite intensity estimate from TAFB.

The shear is not expected to abate for the next 48 hours, and sea
surface temperatures are forecast to remain marginal through 36
hours. Therefore little to no change in intensity is expected from
Gabrielle during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, shear is
expected to decrease for a few days while the cyclone moves over
waters warmer than 28 C. This should allow for some gradual
intensification, and Gabrielle is forecast to become a hurricane by
Sunday. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous
one and very near the intensity from the corrected consensus HCCA.

Gabrielle has been moving northwestward or 325/6 kt. This motion
should continue for the next day or so as the cyclone is steered by
a subtropical ridge to its northeast. After that time, a mid- to
upper-level low is forecast to develop to the west of Gabrielle,
which will help to increase the forward motion late this week and
over the weekend. There was a notable westward shift in the guidance
beyond 72 hours possibly due to the interaction of the cyclone with
the aforementioned upper low. After 96 hours, an approaching
mid-latitude trough will begin to turn Gabrielle to the north then
northeast. The official forecast track is very similar to the
previous one through 72 hours, and was shifted slightly westward
thereafter.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 21.5N 34.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 22.4N 35.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 23.7N 36.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 25.4N 38.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 27.3N 40.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 30.8N 44.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 34.0N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 10/0000Z 37.5N 48.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-05 02:33

WTNT33 KNHC 050230
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 PM AST Wed Sep 04 2019

...GABRIELLE MAINTAINS ITS INTENSITY WHILE MOVING NORTHWEST
OVER OPEN WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.5N 34.4W
ABOUT 780 MI...1255 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1220 MI...1965 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 34.4 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue for the next few days with an increase in
forward speed expected late this week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Some slow strengthening is then expected to begin by this
weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-05 02:33

WTNT23 KNHC 050230
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 34.4W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......140NE 40SE 50SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 60SE 90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 34.4W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 34.2W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.4N 35.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...140NE 40SE 50SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.7N 36.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.4N 38.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.3N 40.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 50SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 30.8N 44.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 34.0N 48.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 37.5N 48.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 34.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-04 20:33

WTNT43 KNHC 042031
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 04 2019

Recent microwave data suggest that Gabrielle continues to gradually
become better organized, and the last few GOES-16 images show a
convective burst forming over the center. The initial intensity is
estimated at 45 kt based on the Dvorak number from TAFB and an
earlier ASCAT pass from this morning, but it's possible that this
intensity estimate may be conservative. The storm could intensify
a little more in the short-term, but overall it is expected to
remain in a marginal environment during the next couple of days,
characterized by moderate southerly to southwesterly wind shear, low
values of mid-level relative humidity and SSTs near 26-27C. Little
overall change in strength is predicted during the next two days.
Thereafter, some strengthening is likely as Gabrielle moves on the
northeastern side of an upper-level low into a lower shear region,
at the same time the cyclone moves over warmer water. The new NHC
intensity forecast shows Gabrielle reaching hurricane strength in
about 5 days, which is consistent with the latest HWRF, NOAA
corrected-consensus and COAMPS-TC models.

The initial motion is estimated at 325/8. For the next 5 days,
Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break
in the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge. An increase in forward
speed is expected due to the gradient between an upper-level low to
the west and the ridge to the northeast. The latest models have
shifted a little to the west for the point of recurvature in about 5
days, and the official forecast splits the difference between the
previous NHC forecast and the latest various consensus models in the
day 4 to 5 time period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 21.0N 34.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 21.7N 34.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 22.8N 35.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 24.2N 37.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 30.0N 43.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 33.0N 47.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 36.5N 48.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Hagen

>

2019-09-04 20:33

WTNT33 KNHC 042031
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 PM AST Wed Sep 04 2019

...GABRIELLE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OVER EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 34.0W
ABOUT 740 MI...1190 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1245 MI...2005 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 21.0 North, longitude 34.0 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion is
expected to continue through Saturday, with an increase in forward
speed expected late in the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours,
with some strengthening possible over the weekend.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Hagen

>

2019-09-04 20:33

WTNT23 KNHC 042030
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 34.0W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 34.0W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 33.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.7N 34.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.8N 35.8W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 24.2N 37.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.1N 39.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 30.0N 43.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 33.0N 47.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 36.5N 48.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 34.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/HAGEN

>

2019-09-04 14:56

WTNT43 KNHC 041454
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019

Gabrielle appears better organized on satellite imagery
this morning with the low-level center moving a little more
underneath the convection. In addition, a large curved band has
become better defined in the northern semicircle. The initial wind
speed is increased to 45 kt, which is consistent with a
just-received ASCAT-C pass of 40-45 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 320/8. For the next 5 days,
Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break
in the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge located between 40W-50W
longitude. An increase in forward speed in a few days is expected
due to the gradient between an upper-level low to the west and the
ridge to the northeast. The official forecast track lies slightly to
the east of the previous forecast in the short term, and then is
very close to the previous NHC track in days 3 to 5.

Gabrielle is expected to remain in a marginal environment during the
next 2 to 3 days, with moderate southerly to southwesterly wind
shear, low values of mid-level relative humidity and SSTs near
26-27C. No change in wind speed is predicted during the first two
days. Thereafter, some strengthening is possible as Gabrielle moves
on the northeast side of the upper-level low concurrent with the
cyclone moving over warmer water. This is a typical situation for
intensification, so the forecast wind speed is raised slightly at
days 4-5. The intensity forecast is fairly consistent with the bulk
of the typically reliable intensity models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 20.5N 33.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 21.0N 34.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 21.9N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 23.1N 36.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 24.6N 38.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 28.6N 41.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 32.5N 45.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 36.5N 47.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake/Hagen

>

2019-09-04 14:55

WTNT33 KNHC 041453
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019

...GABRIELLE STRENGTHENS OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 33.8W
ABOUT 715 MI...1150 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1275 MI...2050 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle
was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 33.8 West. Gabrielle
is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this motion
is expected to continue through Saturday, with an increase in
forward speed expected late in the week.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
few days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake/Hagen

>

2019-09-04 14:55

WTNT23 KNHC 041453
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 33.8W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......120NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 33.8W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 33.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 21.0N 34.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 30SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.9N 35.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.1N 36.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 24.6N 38.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 28.6N 41.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...110NE 60SE 30SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 32.5N 45.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 36.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 33.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/HAGEN

>

2019-09-04 08:56

WTNT43 KNHC 040854
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Gabrielle Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019

A late-arriving ASCAT-C scatterometer pass revealed peak surface
winds of 33 kt in the northwestern quadrant, and satellite imagery
since then indicates a marked increase in the deep convection,
albeit sheared to the northeast of the well-defined low-level center
noted in the scatterometer data. Based on these wind data and a
satellite intensity estimate of T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and UW-CIMSS
ADT, the depression has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Gabrielle,
the seventh named storm of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season.

The initial motion is 310/09 kt. The initial position was adjusted
slightly to the southwest of the previous positions based on the
aforementioned scatterometer data. This has resulted in the new
forecast track being shifted a little to the left of the previous
advisory track at all forecast times. For the next 5 days,
Gabrielle is forecast to move generally northwestward toward a break
in the Bermuda-Azores high pressure ridge located between 40W-50W
longitude. The official forecast track lies close to a blend of the
tightly packed consensus models TVCN, TVCX, and NOAA-HCCA.

During the entire forecast period, Gabrielle is forecast to remain
in a marginally conducive environment characterized by moderate
southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt, SSTs of 26-27 deg C,
and dry mid-level air with humidity values less than 50 percent. As
a result, only slight strengthening is forecast through 72 hours.
The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory,
and closely follows the HCCA consensus intensity model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 19.6N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 20.3N 34.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 21.1N 35.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 22.1N 36.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 23.4N 37.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 27.5N 41.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 31.5N 44.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 35.5N 47.2W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-04 08:56

WTNT33 KNHC 040853
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Gabrielle Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 AM AST Wed Sep 04 2019

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE OVER THE
OPEN ATLANTIC OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 33.6W
ABOUT 680 MI...1090 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1330 MI...2140 KM SSW OF THE AZORES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Gabrielle was
located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 33.6 West. Gabrielle is
moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h,) and this general
motion is forecast to continue through Friday, with an increase in
forward speed expected late in the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-04 08:56

WTNT23 KNHC 040853
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 33.6W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 33.6W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 33.4W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.3N 34.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.1N 35.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.1N 36.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 23.4N 37.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 27.5N 41.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 31.5N 44.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 35.5N 47.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 33.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-04 02:42

WTNT43 KNHC 040240
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 03 2019

A recent scatterometer pass indicated that the low-level center was
farther south than previously thought, and that the strongest winds
of 30 kt are within a band of deep convection over the northern
semicircle. Based on these data and a blend of the subjective and
objective intensity estimates, 30 kt will be the initial intensity
for this advisory.

The depression will be in a marginally favorable environment of 10
to 15 kt of shear and over SSTs just over 26C for the next few days.
Some slight strengthening could occur during this time frame, and it
is reflected in the official forecast, bringing the intensity to 50
kt by Thursday night. After that time, the cyclone will begin to
move over warmer waters, but into a drier environment with some
increase in the wind shear. It is difficult to know at this point in
time as to what effect these conflicting conditions may have on the
cyclone's intensity. Therefore, beyond 48 hours the intensity is
held in a steady state. The official intensity forecast is just a
tad higher than the previous one, and is very near the various
intensity consensus models.

The initial motion is 320/07 kt. A general northwestward motion is
expected through the forecast period on the eastern periphery of a
subtropical ridge extending from Africa to the eastern Atlantic. An
increase in forward motion is expected late this week, as the
cyclone gets caught in the southeast flow between the ridge to its
east and a developing mid- to upper-level low to the west. The
official forecast track is slightly to the left of the previous one
through 72 hours due to the adjustment of the initial position.
Thereafter the track forecast is little changed and close to the
consensus aid TVCX.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 19.1N 32.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 19.7N 33.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.6N 34.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 21.6N 35.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 23.0N 36.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 27.1N 39.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 31.7N 43.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 35.4N 46.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-04 02:41

WTNT33 KNHC 040239
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
1100 PM AST Tue Sep 03 2019

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON
WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 32.8W
ABOUT 615 MI...995 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 19.1 North, longitude 32.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this general motion is expected to continue through Friday with an
increase in forward speed late in the week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slow strengthening is possible over the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-04 02:41

WTNT23 KNHC 040239
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 32.8W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 32.8W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 32.6W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.7N 33.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.6N 34.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 21.6N 35.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.0N 36.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.1N 39.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...100NE 50SE 30SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 31.7N 43.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 35.4N 46.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 32.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-03 20:42

WTNT43 KNHC 032040
TCDAT3

Tropical Depression Eight Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 03 2019

Satellite images indicate that the broad area of low pressure over
the eastern Atlantic has become better defined during day, with
rainbands forming on the eastern side of the circulation. This
structure is good enough for a tropical depression, and the initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, which agrees with earlier ASCAT passes
that showed 25-30 kt.

The initial motion estimate is 310/7 kt. A general northwestward
motion is anticipated during the next several days, faster by the
weekend, as the system is steered by a strengthening eastern
Atlantic ridge. One source of uncertainty in the future track is
how much the cyclone is affected by a developing mid-level low
around 25N45W in a few days. This feature could briefly induce a
north-northwestward motion on Friday, and later west-northwestward
on day 5 depending on exactly how close the new tropical cyclone
gets to the mid-level low. For now it is best not to bite off on
any particular model solution, since the intensity and depth of the
cyclone isn't certain at this range. Thus, the forecast is close
to the Atlantic model consensus TVCA, shaded a bit on the fast side
assuming the system keeps some vertical depth.

Although the depression is forecast to be in a low-shear environment
during the next couple of days, marginal water temperatures should
keep the strengthening rate modest. The intensity forecast is
complicated beyond that point due to the system's interaction with
the mid-level low, drier air in the mid-levels, and increasing
waters temperatures. This mixed bag of factors makes the forecast
rather murky, with any intensity changes at longer range having low
predictability at this point. Therefore, the forecast is leveled
off at long range, similar to the NOAA corrected-consensus model
HCCA, but this uncertain forecast could require a great deal of
revision later tonight or tomorrow.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 19.0N 32.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.7N 33.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 20.4N 34.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 21.4N 34.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 22.4N 35.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 26.2N 38.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 30.0N 41.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 34.0N 45.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-03 20:36

WTNT33 KNHC 032034
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Eight Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082019
500 PM AST Tue Sep 03 2019

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 32.3W
ABOUT 585 MI...940 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eight
was located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 32.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and
this general motion with some increase in forward speed is
anticipated during the next few days

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm on Wednesday,
although it is not anticipated to become a hurricane during the
work week.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-03 20:36

WTNT23 KNHC 032034
TCMAT3

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 32.3W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 32.3W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 32.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.7N 33.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.4N 34.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.4N 34.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.4N 35.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 26.2N 38.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 30.0N 41.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 34.0N 45.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 32.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>