Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JULIETTE-19
Off-shore

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2019-09-07 22:05

WTPN31 PHNC 072200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 027//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 027
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 24.4N 128.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.4N 128.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.4N 131.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.4N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 24.4N 135.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 24.4N 137.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 24.6N 141.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 26.0N 144.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
121800Z --- 27.5N 146.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
072200Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 129.7W.
07SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 796
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE
JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 071800Z IS 15 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (AKONI)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-07 20:38

WTPZ41 KNHC 072034 RRA
TCDEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1100 AM HST SAT SEP 07 2019

JULIETTE HAS NOT PRODUCED ANY DEEP CONVECTION FOR ALMOST 18 HOURS,
AND IT IS THEREFORE BEING DECLARED A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. A
RECENT ASCAT-C PASS SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 30-35 KT WINDS TO THE
NORTH OF THE CENTER, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS THEREFORE BEING
SET AT 35 KT. A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED
WITH JULIETTE REMAINING OVER WATERS OF 24-25C DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. AFTER 48 HOURS, WATER TEMPERATURES DO INCREASE A BIT TO
NEAR 26C, BUT BY THEN INCREDIBLY BELLIGERENT WESTERLY SHEAR, ON THE
ORDER OF 40-50 KT, IS EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTING THE REMNANT LOW.
STILL, THE GLOBAL MODELS CARRY A LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 5 DAYS, AND
THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/11 KT. THE LOW SHOULD TURN ON A DUE WEST
HEADING FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS, STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE
WINDS. AFTER DAY 3, THE REMNANT LOW IS EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH A
MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, WHICH
COULD CAUSE IT TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW DOWN BY DAY 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 24.4N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-09-07 20:37

WTPZ31 KNHC 072034 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1100 AM HST SAT SEP 07 2019

...JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 129.5W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST.
JULIETTE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
THROUGH TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE
LOW'S MAXIMUM WINDS SHOULD DROP BELOW GALE FORCE BY TONIGHT.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES (95 KM)
TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE

>

2019-09-07 20:37

WTPZ21 KNHC 072034 RRA
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 128.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 129.5W

>

2019-09-07 20:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 072034
TCDEP1

Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019

Juliette has not produced any deep convection for almost 18 hours,
and it is therefore being declared a post-tropical cyclone. A
recent ASCAT-C pass showed a small area of 30-35 kt winds to the
north of the center, and the initial intensity is therefore being
set at 35 kt. A gradual spin down of the circulation is expected
with Juliette remaining over waters of 24-25C during the next couple
of days. After 48 hours, water temperatures do increase a bit to
near 26C, but by then incredibly belligerent westerly shear, on the
order of 40-50 kt, is expected to be affecting the remnant low.
Still, the global models carry a low through the next 5 days, and
that is reflected in the official forecast.

The initial motion is 280/11 kt. The low should turn on a due west
heading for the next 2-3 days, steered by the low-level trade
winds. After day 3, the remnant low is expected to interact with a
mid- to upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, which
could cause it to turn northwestward and slow down by day 5.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/2100Z 24.4N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-07 20:35

WTPZ31 KNHC 072034
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Advisory Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019

...JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 129.5W
ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone
Juliette was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 129.5 West.
Juliette is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this
general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and the
low's maximum winds should drop below gale force by tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane
Center on this system. For additional information on the
post-tropical cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header
FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-07 20:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 072034
TCMEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 128.9W

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 129.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO
HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-07 16:00

WTNT82 EGRR 071559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 07.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 30.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2019 0 15.2N 30.1W 1014 18
0000UTC 08.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AKONI ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 154.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2019 0 11.3N 154.6W 1006 28
0000UTC 08.09.2019 12 11.9N 156.7W 1006 26
1200UTC 08.09.2019 24 12.3N 159.9W 1006 26
0000UTC 09.09.2019 36 13.4N 162.8W 1006 28
1200UTC 09.09.2019 48 15.3N 166.2W 1007 31
0000UTC 10.09.2019 60 16.5N 169.4W 1007 32
1200UTC 10.09.2019 72 17.3N 172.1W 1006 40
0000UTC 11.09.2019 84 18.0N 174.6W 1005 42
1200UTC 11.09.2019 96 17.7N 176.4W 1003 42
0000UTC 12.09.2019 108 17.3N 177.5W 1001 39
1200UTC 12.09.2019 120 16.9N 178.1W 1000 42
0000UTC 13.09.2019 132 16.4N 178.6W 999 38
1200UTC 13.09.2019 144 16.4N 178.6W 999 39

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 41.0N 66.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2019 0 41.0N 66.8W 951 62
0000UTC 08.09.2019 12 45.5N 62.9W 957 56
1200UTC 08.09.2019 24 49.3N 60.9W 955 56
0000UTC 09.09.2019 36 51.4N 55.3W 977 51
1200UTC 09.09.2019 48 54.7N 48.8W 983 36
0000UTC 10.09.2019 60 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N 43.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2019 0 31.1N 43.7W 989 54
0000UTC 08.09.2019 12 32.0N 46.7W 980 61
1200UTC 08.09.2019 24 33.8N 48.8W 974 62
0000UTC 09.09.2019 36 36.4N 49.2W 978 62
1200UTC 09.09.2019 48 39.9N 47.6W 971 65
0000UTC 10.09.2019 60 43.5N 42.0W 975 69
1200UTC 10.09.2019 72 46.4N 33.4W 1002 47
0000UTC 11.09.2019 84 47.5N 25.1W 1015 31
1200UTC 11.09.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 127.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2019 0 24.2N 127.8W 1005 35
0000UTC 08.09.2019 12 24.2N 130.3W 1010 31
1200UTC 08.09.2019 24 23.9N 132.6W 1012 28
0000UTC 09.09.2019 36 23.9N 135.0W 1013 28
1200UTC 09.09.2019 48 24.1N 137.3W 1014 27
0000UTC 10.09.2019 60 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 26.2N 146.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.09.2019 120 26.2N 146.2W 1009 27
0000UTC 13.09.2019 132 26.3N 147.7W 1008 25
1200UTC 13.09.2019 144 26.4N 149.5W 1009 27

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.7N 119.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2019 144 14.7N 120.5W 1004 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 37.3N 4.6E

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 13.09.2019 144 37.3N 5.1E 1011 32


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071558

>

2019-09-07 16:00

WTNT80 EGRR 071558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 30.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2019 15.2N 30.1W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AKONI ANALYSED POSITION : 11.3N 154.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2019 11.3N 154.6W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2019 11.9N 156.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2019 12.3N 159.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 13.4N 162.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 15.3N 166.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2019 16.5N 169.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2019 17.3N 172.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2019 18.0N 174.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2019 17.7N 176.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2019 17.3N 177.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2019 16.9N 178.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2019 16.4N 178.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2019 16.4N 178.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 41.0N 66.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2019 41.0N 66.8W INTENSE
00UTC 08.09.2019 45.5N 62.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2019 49.3N 60.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 51.4N 55.3W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.09.2019 54.7N 48.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2019 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 31.1N 43.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2019 31.1N 43.7W MODERATE
00UTC 08.09.2019 32.0N 46.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2019 33.8N 48.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2019 36.4N 49.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 39.9N 47.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2019 43.5N 42.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2019 46.4N 33.4W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.09.2019 47.5N 25.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 11.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.2N 127.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2019 24.2N 127.8W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2019 24.2N 130.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2019 23.9N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 23.9N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 24.1N 137.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 26.2N 146.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 12.09.2019 26.2N 146.2W WEAK
00UTC 13.09.2019 26.3N 147.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2019 26.4N 149.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.7N 119.1W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2019 14.7N 120.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 37.3N 4.6E

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 13.09.2019 37.3N 5.1E WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 071558

>

2019-09-07 15:47

WTPN31 PHNC 071600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 026//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 24.2N 127.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 127.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.3N 130.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.3N 132.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 24.3N 134.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 24.2N 136.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 24.0N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.5N 143.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
071600Z POSITION NEAR 24.2N 128.6W.
07SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 760
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072200Z, 080400Z, 081000Z AND 081600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (AKONI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-07 14:48

WTPZ41 KNHC 071446 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
500 AM HST SAT SEP 07 2019

THE LAST BIT OF JULIETTE'S DEEP CONVECTION--USING -50C CLOUD TOPS
AS A PROXY--DISSIPATED AROUND 0400 UTC. ALTHOUGH IT'S LIKELY THAT
THE STORM'S WINDS ARE DECREASING, RECENT SATELLITE ESTIMATES RANGE
FROM 25 KT FROM SAB TO 45 KT FROM TAFB AND THE UW-CIMSS SATCON.
THEREFORE, THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 40 KT ON THIS ADVISORY.

ALTHOUGH JULIETTE IS NOW DEPARTING A MINIMUM IN SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (23-24C), OCEAN WATERS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
BELOW 26C FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS OR SO. IN ADDITION, WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE INCREASING SUBSTANTIALLY
BY 48 HOURS. IF DEEP CONVECTION DOESN'T REDEVELOP SOON, JULIETTE
WILL BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY, AND THEN MAINTAIN
THAT STATUS WITH SURFACE WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASING OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE LOW SHOULD OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AROUND DAY 5.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/10 KT. NOW THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME
SHALLOW, IT IS EXPECTED TO BE STEERED GENERALLY WESTWARD BY THE
LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THE FUTURE TRACK OF JULIETTE THROUGH DAY 4, AND NO APPRECIABLE
CHANGES WERE REQUIRED FROM THE PREVIOUS NHC TRACK FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 24.2N 128.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 24.3N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 08/1200Z 24.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0000Z 24.3N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1200Z 24.2N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-09-07 14:48

WTPZ41 KNHC 071446
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
500 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019

The last bit of Juliette's deep convection--using -50C cloud tops
as a proxy--dissipated around 0400 UTC. Although it's likely that
the storm's winds are decreasing, recent satellite estimates range
from 25 kt from SAB to 45 kt from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON.
Therefore, the initial intensity will remain 40 kt on this advisory.

Although Juliette is now departing a minimum in sea surface
temperatures (23-24C), ocean waters ahead of the system will remain
below 26C for the next 3 days or so. In addition, west-
southwesterly vertical shear will be increasing substantially
by 48 hours. If deep convection doesn't redevelop soon, Juliette
will become a post-tropical cyclone later today, and then maintain
that status with surface winds gradually decreasing over the next
several days. The low should open up into a trough around day 5.

The initial motion is 280/10 kt. Now that the cyclone has become
shallow, it is expected to be steered generally westward by the
low-level trade winds. The track models are in good agreement on
the future track of Juliette through day 4, and no appreciable
changes were required from the previous NHC track forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/1500Z 24.2N 128.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 08/0000Z 24.3N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
24H 08/1200Z 24.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 09/0000Z 24.3N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/1200Z 24.2N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/1200Z 24.0N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/1200Z 24.5N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-09-07 14:48

WTPZ31 KNHC 071446
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
500 AM HST SAT SEP 07 2019

...JULIETTE LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.2N 128.4W
ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND
JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-07 14:47

WTPZ21 KNHC 071445
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 128.4W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 128.4W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 127.8W

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.3N 130.1W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.3N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.3N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.2N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.5N 143.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 128.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z

..
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-09-07 09:55

WTPN31 PHNC 071000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 025//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 23.8N 126.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.8N 126.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.0N 128.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.0N 131.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 24.0N 133.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.9N 135.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.7N 139.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.5N 142.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 24.0N 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
071000Z POSITION NEAR 23.9N 127.3W.
07SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 732
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071600Z, 072200Z, 080400Z AND 081000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (AKONI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-07 08:37

WTPZ41 KNHC 070834 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1100 PM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

JULIETTE IS RAPIDLY DECLINING AND IS WELL ON ITS WAY TO BECOMING
POST-TROPICAL. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED DRAMATICALLY OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS, AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED SHARPLY IN
TURN. ASCAT DATA THAT ARRIVED SHORTLY BEFORE 06Z REVEALED THAT
JULIETTE IS NOT AS STRONG AS PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED, WITH MAX WINDS OF
ONLY 35-40 KT. BASED ON THAT NEW INFO, THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED DOWN TO 40 KT.

THE MAIN CHANGE IN THE NHC FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW SHOWS JULIETTE
BECOMING POST-TROPICAL IN 24 HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS, IT COULD
CERTAINLY HAPPEN MUCH SOONER THAN THAT. OTHERWISE, THE OVERALL
REASONING BEHIND THE FORECAST IS THE SAME. JULIETTE IS LOCATED OVER
QUITE COLD WATERS AND WILL STEADILY SPIN DOWN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THE TROPICAL STORM HAS TURNED WESTWARD AND SHOULD CONTINUE
HEADING WEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, STEERED BY LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THIS TRACK WILL TAKE THE SOON-TO-BE REMNANT
LOW OVER WARMER WATERS BY DAY 5, AND SOME OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THAT JULIETTE COULD TRY TO MAKE A COMEBACK AT THAT TIME.
HOWEVER, EXTREMELY HIGH WIND SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT ANY CONVECTION
THAT DOES DEVELOP FROM BECOMING ORGANIZED AND REGENERATION IS NOT
EXPECTED. THE NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO
THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS AIDS THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 23.8N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 24.0N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 24.0N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-09-07 08:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 070834
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
1100 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019

Juliette is rapidly declining and is well on its way to becoming
post-tropical. Cloud tops have warmed dramatically over the past few
hours, and satellite intensity estimates have decreased sharply in
turn. ASCAT data that arrived shortly before 06Z revealed that
Juliette is not as strong as previously estimated, with max winds of
only 35-40 kt. Based on that new info, the intensity has been
adjusted down to 40 kt.

The main change in the NHC forecast is that it now shows Juliette
becoming post-tropical in 24 hours. Given current trends, it could
certainly happen much sooner than that. Otherwise, the overall
reasoning behind the forecast is the same. Juliette is located over
quite cold waters and will steadily spin down over the next several
days. The tropical storm has turned westward and should continue
heading west through the middle of next week, steered by low-level
easterly trade winds. This track will take the soon-to-be remnant
low over warmer waters by day 5, and some of the dynamical guidance
suggests that Juliette could try to make a comeback at that time.
However, extremely high wind shear should prevent any convection
that does develop from becoming organized and regeneration is not
expected. The NHC track and intensity forecasts remain very close to
the various consensus aids throughout the 5-day period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 23.8N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 24.0N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 24.0N 131.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 08/1800Z 24.0N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 09/0600Z 23.9N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/0600Z 23.7N 139.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0600Z 23.5N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0600Z 24.0N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-07 08:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 070833
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1100 PM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

...JULIETTE FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL ON SATURDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 127.1W
ABOUT 1090 MI...1755 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 127.1 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). THIS GENERAL MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND JULIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB (29.68 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-07 08:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 070833
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0900 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 127.1W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 127.1W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 126.6W

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 128.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.0N 131.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.0N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.9N 135.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.7N 139.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.5N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 24.0N 145.0W...DISSIPATED
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 127.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2019-09-07 03:59

WTNT82 EGRR 070358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 27.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2019 0 15.2N 27.8W 1014 18
1200UTC 07.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 37.3N 71.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2019 0 37.3N 71.5W 960 62
1200UTC 07.09.2019 12 41.0N 66.8W 946 63
0000UTC 08.09.2019 24 45.4N 62.8W 956 58
1200UTC 08.09.2019 36 49.2N 61.3W 955 58
0000UTC 09.09.2019 48 51.1N 56.4W 975 46
1200UTC 09.09.2019 60 54.4N 49.2W 983 36
0000UTC 10.09.2019 72 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.1N 40.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2019 0 29.1N 40.1W 1004 39
1200UTC 07.09.2019 12 30.9N 43.6W 990 51
0000UTC 08.09.2019 24 31.9N 46.2W 987 55
1200UTC 08.09.2019 36 33.6N 48.3W 980 60
0000UTC 09.09.2019 48 36.3N 48.7W 980 59
1200UTC 09.09.2019 60 39.4N 46.8W 973 68
0000UTC 10.09.2019 72 42.5N 42.0W 974 68
1200UTC 10.09.2019 84 45.1N 35.0W 996 53
0000UTC 11.09.2019 96 46.3N 27.6W 1012 34
1200UTC 11.09.2019 108 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 125.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2019 0 23.5N 125.6W 994 46
1200UTC 07.09.2019 12 23.9N 127.9W 1003 38
0000UTC 08.09.2019 24 24.2N 130.1W 1008 33
1200UTC 08.09.2019 36 24.1N 132.5W 1011 30
0000UTC 09.09.2019 48 24.1N 135.0W 1013 28
1200UTC 09.09.2019 60 24.2N 137.3W 1014 29
0000UTC 10.09.2019 72 24.0N 139.7W 1015 28
1200UTC 10.09.2019 84 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 37.3N 57.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2019 0 37.3N 57.2W 1011 24
1200UTC 07.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 12.1N 152.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2019 12 11.7N 153.9W 1006 29
0000UTC 08.09.2019 24 11.9N 156.7W 1005 29
1200UTC 08.09.2019 36 12.1N 159.9W 1004 29
0000UTC 09.09.2019 48 13.0N 162.9W 1004 34
1200UTC 09.09.2019 60 13.9N 166.4W 1005 34
0000UTC 10.09.2019 72 15.5N 169.9W 1006 34
1200UTC 10.09.2019 84 16.7N 173.2W 1006 37
0000UTC 11.09.2019 96 17.6N 176.0W 1003 43
1200UTC 11.09.2019 108 17.9N 178.3W 1000 48
0000UTC 12.09.2019 120 18.0N 179.8W 994 56
1200UTC 12.09.2019 132 17.2N 179.7E 992 56
0000UTC 13.09.2019 144 17.2N 179.9E 988 55

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.9N 115.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 13.09.2019 144 15.0N 116.5W 1003 30


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070358

>

2019-09-07 03:59

WTNT80 EGRR 070358

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 27.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2019 15.2N 27.8W WEAK
12UTC 07.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 37.3N 71.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2019 37.3N 71.5W STRONG
12UTC 07.09.2019 41.0N 66.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 45.4N 62.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2019 49.2N 61.3W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 51.1N 56.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.09.2019 54.4N 49.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2019 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 29.1N 40.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2019 29.1N 40.1W WEAK
12UTC 07.09.2019 30.9N 43.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 31.9N 46.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2019 33.6N 48.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2019 36.3N 48.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 39.4N 46.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2019 42.5N 42.0W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2019 45.1N 35.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.09.2019 46.3N 27.6W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 11.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 23.5N 125.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2019 23.5N 125.6W MODERATE
12UTC 07.09.2019 23.9N 127.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 24.2N 130.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2019 24.1N 132.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 24.1N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 24.2N 137.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2019 24.0N 139.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 6 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 6 : 12.1N 152.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2019 11.7N 153.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 11.9N 156.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2019 12.1N 159.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 13.0N 162.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 13.9N 166.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2019 15.5N 169.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2019 16.7N 173.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2019 17.6N 176.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2019 17.9N 178.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2019 18.0N 179.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2019 17.2N 179.7E MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2019 17.2N 179.9E MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 14.9N 115.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 13.09.2019 15.0N 116.5W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 070358

>

2019-09-07 03:51

WTPN31 PHNC 070400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 024//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 23.6N 125.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.6N 125.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 24.1N 127.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.2N 129.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 24.1N 132.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 24.0N 134.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 23.9N 138.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 24.0N 142.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
120000Z --- 24.0N 145.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
070400Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 126.2W.
07SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 703
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (AKONI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-07 02:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 070231 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
500 PM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

JULIETTE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. CLOUD TOPS HAVE GRADUALLY
WARMED SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY AND SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE
OVERPASSES SHOW THAT CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CYCLONE. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KT BASED ON THE
LATEST TAFB DVORAK FIX.

NO SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK OR INTENSITY
FORECASTS. JULIETTE IS LOCATED OVER 23-24 DEG C WATERS, AND WILL
REMAIN OVER FAIRLY COOL WATERS FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CONTINUED
WEAKENING APPEARS INEVITABLE AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A
REMNANT LOW WITHIN 48 H. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM WILL REACH MARGINALLY
WARMER WATERS TO THE WEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, IT WILL
HAVE WEAKENED ENOUGH THAT SIGNIFICANT REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY AT
THAT TIME.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KT. JULIETTE
SHOULD TURN WESTWARD ON SATURDAY AS IT WEAKENS FURTHER AND IS
STEERED ENTIRELY BY LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. ALL OF THE MODELS
FORECAST THAT THE TROPICAL STORM/REMNANT LOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
WESTWARD FOR SEVERAL DAYS THEREAFTER. THE NHC FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE
TO THE EAST PACIFIC MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 23.7N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 24.1N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 24.2N 129.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 24.1N 132.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 24.0N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/0000Z 23.9N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

>

2019-09-07 02:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 070231
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
500 PM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

...JULIETTE SLOWLY WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.7N 126.0W
ABOUT 1020 MI...1645 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 PM HST (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 126.0 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). THE
TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD ON SATURDAY, AND IT
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST AND JULIETTE WILL
LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-07 02:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 070231
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
500 PM HST Fri Sep 06 2019

Juliette continues to slowly weaken. Cloud tops have gradually
warmed since the last advisory and several recent microwave
overpasses show that convection is now limited to the eastern half
of the cyclone. The intensity has been lowered to 55 kt based on the
latest TAFB Dvorak fix.

No substantial changes were made to the NHC track or intensity
forecasts. Juliette is located over 23-24 deg C waters, and will
remain over fairly cool waters for the next several days. Continued
weakening appears inevitable and Juliette is forecast to become a
remnant low within 48 h. Although the system will reach marginally
warmer waters to the west by the end of the forecast period, it will
have weakened enough that significant regeneration is unlikely at
that time.

The initial motion remains west-northwestward at 11 kt. Juliette
should turn westward on Saturday as it weakens further and is
steered entirely by low-level easterly flow. All of the models
forecast that the tropical storm/remnant low will then continue
westward for several days thereafter. The NHC forecast is very close
to the East Pacific multi-model consensus TVCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0300Z 23.7N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 24.1N 127.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 24.2N 129.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 24.1N 132.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 24.0N 134.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 10/0000Z 23.9N 138.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 11/0000Z 24.0N 142.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 12/0000Z 24.0N 145.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-07 02:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 070230 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 126.0W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 126.0W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 125.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.1N 127.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.2N 129.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.1N 132.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.0N 134.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.9N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.0N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 126.0W

>

2019-09-07 02:32

WTPZ21 KNHC 070230
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0300 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 126.0W AT 07/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 126.0W AT 07/0300Z
AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 125.5W

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 24.1N 127.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.2N 129.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.1N 132.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.0N 134.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 23.9N 138.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 24.0N 142.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 24.0N 145.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 126.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2019-09-06 21:17

WTPN31 PHNC 062200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 023
DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 11E
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061800Z --- NEAR 23.2N 124.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.2N 124.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.8N 126.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 24.1N 128.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.1N 130.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.9N 133.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.7N 137.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.5N 140.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111800Z --- 24.0N 144.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
062200Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 125.1W.
06SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 688
NM SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061800Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070400Z, 071000Z, 071600Z AND
072200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (AKONI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-06 20:39

WTPZ41 KNHC 062037
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1100 AM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS CONTINUED TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION TODAY. THE VARIOUS SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE CONTINUED TO SLOWLY DECLINE, AND NOW
SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60 KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE
MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY WEAKENING
AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 TO
48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING BACK OVER SLIGHTLY WARMER
WATERS LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, BUT WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD
PREVENT ANY RE-ORGANIZATION.

JULIETTE IS NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/11 KT. THERE HAS
BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT, AND THEN TURN WESTWARD ON
SATURDAY AS IT WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY
FLOW. THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT BUT HAS TRENDED
SLIGHTLY FASTER ONCE AGAIN. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST WAS ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY, AND IS ONCE AGAIN NEAR THE TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 23.4N 124.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 23.8N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 24.1N 128.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 24.1N 130.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 23.9N 133.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 09/1800Z 23.7N 137.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1800Z 24.0N 144.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-06 20:39

WTPZ31 KNHC 062036
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1100 AM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

...JULIETTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...
...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.4N 124.9W
ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION
SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT
LOW LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES (150 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 992 MB (29.30 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 PM HST.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-06 20:37

WTPZ21 KNHC 062035 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 124.9W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 124.9W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 124.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.8N 126.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.1N 128.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.1N 130.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.9N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.7N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

>

2019-09-06 20:37

WTPZ21 KNHC 062035
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 124.9W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 124.9W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 124.4W

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.8N 126.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.1N 128.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.1N 130.9W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.9N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.7N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 124.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-06 16:00

WTNT82 EGRR 061559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 25.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2019 0 15.1N 25.5W 1014 16
0000UTC 07.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AKONI ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 148.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2019 0 11.5N 148.5W 1007 25
0000UTC 07.09.2019 12 12.2N 150.7W 1007 26
1200UTC 07.09.2019 24 12.2N 153.0W 1005 29
0000UTC 08.09.2019 36 12.2N 155.9W 1004 29
1200UTC 08.09.2019 48 12.7N 159.1W 1004 32
0000UTC 09.09.2019 60 13.6N 162.2W 1004 33
1200UTC 09.09.2019 72 14.5N 165.5W 1005 36
0000UTC 10.09.2019 84 16.0N 169.0W 1004 38
1200UTC 10.09.2019 96 16.9N 172.2W 1003 44
0000UTC 11.09.2019 108 17.3N 175.0W 998 49
1200UTC 11.09.2019 120 17.2N 177.2W 991 59
0000UTC 12.09.2019 132 17.2N 178.8W 984 64
1200UTC 12.09.2019 144 17.2N 179.8W 983 57

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 35.2N 75.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2019 0 35.2N 75.7W 964 61
0000UTC 07.09.2019 12 37.2N 71.7W 963 64
1200UTC 07.09.2019 24 40.5N 67.0W 951 70
0000UTC 08.09.2019 36 45.0N 62.6W 956 60
1200UTC 08.09.2019 48 49.0N 60.9W 953 59
0000UTC 09.09.2019 60 51.1N 56.4W 973 47
1200UTC 09.09.2019 72 53.8N 49.6W 983 36
0000UTC 10.09.2019 84 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N 37.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2019 0 26.7N 37.9W 1007 36
0000UTC 07.09.2019 12 29.2N 40.5W 1005 40
1200UTC 07.09.2019 24 30.9N 43.6W 994 50
0000UTC 08.09.2019 36 32.0N 46.1W 992 48
1200UTC 08.09.2019 48 33.5N 48.1W 982 60
0000UTC 09.09.2019 60 36.2N 48.3W 977 64
1200UTC 09.09.2019 72 39.7N 46.4W 974 64
0000UTC 10.09.2019 84 43.0N 41.5W 975 67
1200UTC 10.09.2019 96 45.3N 34.5W 999 50
0000UTC 11.09.2019 108 46.4N 27.7W 1013 34
1200UTC 11.09.2019 120 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 123.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2019 0 22.5N 123.2W 986 57
0000UTC 07.09.2019 12 23.5N 125.5W 993 46
1200UTC 07.09.2019 24 24.0N 127.8W 1002 40
0000UTC 08.09.2019 36 24.0N 130.1W 1007 34
1200UTC 08.09.2019 48 23.9N 132.6W 1010 31
0000UTC 09.09.2019 60 23.8N 135.0W 1012 30
1200UTC 09.09.2019 72 24.0N 137.6W 1014 30
0000UTC 10.09.2019 84 24.0N 140.2W 1014 28
1200UTC 10.09.2019 96 24.1N 142.5W 1014 25
0000UTC 11.09.2019 108 24.5N 144.3W 1012 24
1200UTC 11.09.2019 120 25.0N 145.5W 1011 24
0000UTC 12.09.2019 132 25.8N 145.4W 1009 28
1200UTC 12.09.2019 144 26.5N 145.8W 1008 29

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.9N 48.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.09.2019 132 14.0N 49.9W 1010 23
1200UTC 12.09.2019 144 14.7N 51.1W 1010 25


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 061558

>

2019-09-06 16:00

WTNT80 EGRR 061558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.1N 25.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.09.2019 15.1N 25.5W WEAK
00UTC 07.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION AKONI ANALYSED POSITION : 11.5N 148.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.09.2019 11.5N 148.5W WEAK
00UTC 07.09.2019 12.2N 150.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2019 12.2N 153.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2019 12.2N 155.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2019 12.7N 159.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 13.6N 162.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 14.5N 165.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2019 16.0N 169.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2019 16.9N 172.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2019 17.3N 175.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 11.09.2019 17.2N 177.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2019 17.2N 178.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2019 17.2N 179.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 35.2N 75.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.09.2019 35.2N 75.7W STRONG
00UTC 07.09.2019 37.2N 71.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2019 40.5N 67.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 45.0N 62.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2019 49.0N 60.9W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 51.1N 56.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.09.2019 53.8N 49.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2019 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N 37.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.09.2019 26.7N 37.9W WEAK
00UTC 07.09.2019 29.2N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2019 30.9N 43.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 32.0N 46.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2019 33.5N 48.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2019 36.2N 48.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 09.09.2019 39.7N 46.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2019 43.0N 41.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2019 45.3N 34.5W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 11.09.2019 46.4N 27.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 11.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 123.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.09.2019 22.5N 123.2W MODERATE
00UTC 07.09.2019 23.5N 125.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2019 24.0N 127.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 24.0N 130.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2019 23.9N 132.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 23.8N 135.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 24.0N 137.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2019 24.0N 140.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 10.09.2019 24.1N 142.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2019 24.5N 144.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2019 25.0N 145.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 12.09.2019 25.8N 145.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 12.09.2019 26.5N 145.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 13.9N 48.9W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 12.09.2019 14.0N 49.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.09.2019 14.7N 51.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 061558

>

2019-09-06 15:05

WTPN31 PHNC 061600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 022//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 22.6N 123.0W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.6N 123.0W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.4N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.8N 127.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.9N 129.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.8N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.5N 135.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.5N 139.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 24.0N 142.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061600Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 123.7W.
06SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 682 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
061200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND
071600Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (AKONI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR FINAL WARNING.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-06 14:56

WTPZ31 KNHC 061452 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 22...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
500 AM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

CORRECTED HEADLINE

...JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 123.4W
ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY, AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------

>

2019-09-06 14:54

WTPZ31 KNHC 061452 CCA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 22...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019

Corrected headline

...JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 123.4W
ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was
located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 123.4 West. Juliette is
moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this
general motion should continue during the next 24 hours. A turn
toward the west is forecast to occur on Saturday and a general
westward motion should continue into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the
next 48 hours, and Juliette is forecast to become a tropical storm
later today, and degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles
(165 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST.

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-06 14:39

WTPZ41 KNHC 061437 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
500 AM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JULIETTE HAS DECREASED IN COVERAGE
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, HOWEVER, THE REMAINING CONVECTION STILL
WRAPS COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER. SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE RAW
T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND UW/CIMSS HAVE FALLEN BELOW 4.0, HOWEVER THE
CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBERS ARE STILL AT 4.5. USING A BLEND OF
THESE T- AND CI-NUMBERS, AS NHC TYPICALLY DOES DURING THE
WEAKENING PHASE, YIELDS AN INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 65 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY. JULIETTE IS CURRENTLY OVER SSTS OF AROUND 24.5 DEGREES
CELSIUS, WITH EVEN COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR
MASS ALONG THE PREDICTED PATH OF THE STORM. THESE CONDITIONS
SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO, AND JULIETTE
IS FORECAST TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

RECENT FIXES SHOW THAT JULIETTE HAS TURNED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR
300/10 KT. A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STEER JULIETTE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN WESTWARD WITHIN
THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT TODAY ON THE BOTH THE TRACK AND FORWARD SPEED OF THE
CYCLONE, AND THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.8N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 23.8N 127.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 23.9N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

>

2019-09-06 14:38

WTPZ41 KNHC 061437
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019

Deep convection associated with Juliette has decreased in coverage
over the past 24 hours, however, the remaining convection still
wraps completely around the center. Subjective and objective raw
T-numbers from TAFB and UW/CIMSS have fallen below 4.0, however the
current intensity (CI) numbers are still at 4.5. Using a blend of
these T- and CI-numbers, as NHC typically does during the
weakening phase, yields an initial wind speed of 65 kt for this
advisory. Juliette is currently over SSTs of around 24.5 degrees
Celsius, with even cooler waters and a more stable and drier air
mass along the predicted path of the storm. These conditions
should cause gradual weakening over the next day or so, and Juliette
is forecast to become post-tropical in 36 to 48 hours.

Recent fixes show that Juliette has turned west-northwestward or
300/10 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should
continue to steer Juliette west-northwestward during the next 24
hours. After that time, the cyclone should turn westward within
the low-level tradewind flow. The dynamical models are in better
agreement today on the both the track and forward speed of the
cyclone, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/1500Z 22.8N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 07/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/1200Z 23.8N 127.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 08/0000Z 23.9N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 09/1200Z 23.5N 135.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/1200Z 23.5N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/1200Z 24.0N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-06 14:38

WTPZ31 KNHC 061436
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
500 AM HST FRI SEP 06 2019

...JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.8N 123.4W
ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST TO OCCUR ON SATURDAY AND A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS, AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY, AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-06 14:38

WTPZ21 KNHC 061436 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.4W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.4W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.8N 127.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.9N 129.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 135.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

>

2019-09-06 14:37

WTPZ21 KNHC 061436
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.4W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.4W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.0W

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.8N 127.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.9N 129.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 135.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 123.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-06 09:35

WTPN31 PHNC 061000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 021//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 22.1N 122.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.1N 122.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.0N 124.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.6N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.8N 128.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.8N 130.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.4N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 23.4N 138.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 23.8N 141.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
061000Z POSITION NEAR 22.4N 122.9W.
06SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 691 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (AKONI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-06 09:28

WTPZ41 KNHC 060925 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1100 PM HST THU SEP 05 2019

CORRECTED MOTION IN THIRD PARAGRAPH.

THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS SHOWING A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF DETERIORATION OF JULIETTE'S INNER CORE. THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED, CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUE TO
WARM, AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IS
INTRUDING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER
SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
PATTERN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING
OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASINGLY
STABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. SUBSEQUENTLY, GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, AND JULIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS, OR LESS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASICALLY A COMPROMISE OF THE NOAA HFIP HCCA AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND THE 48-HOUR PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR 305/9 KT. A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER
THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD INDUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN ON
FRIDAY, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, A WESTWARD MOTION
SHOULD COMMENCE AS JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A VERTICALLY SHALLOW
DEPRESSION, AND EVENTUALLY, A REMNANT LOW, AND BECOMES STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF

>

2019-09-06 09:27

WTPZ41 KNHC 060925 CCA
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 21...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019

Corrected motion in third paragraph.

This evening's satellite presentation is showing a considerable
amount of deterioration of Juliette's inner core. The eastern
portion of the eyewall has eroded, cloud tops have continue to
warm, and it appears as though some drier mid-level air is
intruding from the northwest. Subjective satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS Objective T-number
supports lowering the initial intensity to 70 kt.

Although the upper-level winds are expected to remain in a favorable
pattern during the next couple days, the hurricane will be moving
over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into increasingly
stable thermodynamic conditions. Subsequently, gradual weakening
should continue through the entire forecast period, and Juliette is
expected to become a remnant low in 3 days, or less. The intensity
forecast is basically a compromise of the NOAA HFIP HCCA and the
global models beyond the 48-hour period.

The initial motion continues to be northwestward, or 305/9 kt. A
mid-level ridge extending from the southwestern United States over
the eastern Pacific should induce a west-northwestward turn on
Friday, and this general motion should continue through the next
couple of days. Toward the end of the period, a westward motion
should commence as Juliette degenerates into a vertically shallow
depression, and eventually, a remnant low, and becomes steered by
the low-level tradewind flow. The track forecast is an update of
the previous advisory and sides with the TVCE model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 22.4N 122.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 23.8N 130.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 09/0600Z 23.4N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0600Z 23.4N 138.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z 23.8N 141.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-06 08:54

WTPZ41 KNHC 060852 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1100 PM HST THU SEP 05 2019

THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION IS SHOWING A CONSIDERABLE
AMOUNT OF DETERIORATION OF JULIETTE'S INNER CORE. THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE EYEWALL HAS ERODED, CLOUD TOPS HAVE CONTINUE TO
WARM, AND IT APPEARS AS THOUGH SOME DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR IS
INTRUDING FROM THE NORTHWEST. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB, AND THE UW-CIMSS OBJECTIVE T-NUMBER
SUPPORTS LOWERING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO 70 KT.

ALTHOUGH THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE
PATTERN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS, THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING
OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO INCREASINGLY
STABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. SUBSEQUENTLY, GRADUAL WEAKENING
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD, AND JULIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 3 DAYS, OR LESS. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASICALLY A COMPROMISE OF THE NOAA HFIP HCCA AND THE
GLOBAL MODELS BEYOND THE 48-HOUR PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATE CONTINUES TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR
305/9 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC SHOULD INDUCE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TURN ON FRIDAY, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD, A WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD COMMENCE AS JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A VERTICALLY
SHALLOW DEPRESSION, AND EVENTUALLY, A REMNANT LOW, AND BECOMES
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW. THE TRACK FORECAST IS AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND SIDES WITH THE TVCE MODEL

>

2019-09-06 08:54

WTPZ31 KNHC 060851
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1100 PM HST THU SEP 05 2019

...JULIETTE ON THE DECLINE...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.4N 122.7W
ABOUT 815 MI...1315 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 1100 PM HST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 122.7 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS, AND JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY
FRIDAY NIGHT, AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 984 MB (29.06 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500 AM HST.

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-06 08:54

WTPZ21 KNHC 060851 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.7W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.7W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 122.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.8N 130.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.4N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 23.4N 138.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

>

2019-09-06 08:53

WTPZ41 KNHC 060852
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
1100 PM HST Thu Sep 05 2019

This evening's satellite presentation is showing a considerable
amount of deterioration of Juliette's inner core. The eastern
portion of the eyewall has eroded, cloud tops have continue to
warm, and it appears as though some drier mid-level air is
intruding from the northwest. Subjective satellite intensity
estimates from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS Objective T-number
supports lowering the initial intensity to 70 kt.

Although the upper-level winds are expected to remain in a favorable
pattern during the next couple days, the hurricane will be moving
over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into increasingly
stable thermodynamic conditions. Subsequently, gradual weakening
should continue through the entire forecast period, and Juliette is
expected to become a remnant low in 3 days, or less. The intensity
forecast is basically a compromise of the NOAA HFIP HCCA and the
global models beyond the 48-hour period.

The initial motion is estimate continues to be northwestward, or
305/9 kt. A mid-level ridge extending from the southwestern United
States over the eastern Pacific should induce a west-northwestward
turn on Friday, and this general motion should continue through the
next couple of days. Toward the end of the period, a westward
motion should commence as Juliette degenerates into a vertically
shallow depression, and eventually, a remnant low, and becomes
steered by the low-level tradewind flow. The track forecast is an
update of the previous advisory and sides with the TVCE model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0900Z 22.4N 122.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/0600Z 23.8N 130.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 09/0600Z 23.4N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0600Z 23.4N 138.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0600Z 23.8N 141.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-06 08:52

WTPZ21 KNHC 060851
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0900 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.7W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.4N 122.7W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 122.2W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.8N 130.6W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.4N 135.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 23.4N 138.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 23.8N 141.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.4N 122.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-06 02:52

WTPZ41 KNHC 060249 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
800 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2019

JULIETTE HAS REMAINED RESILIENT DESPITE MOVING OVER SSTS AROUND
25-26C OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO
ENVELOP THE CENTER WITH A RAGGED EYE APPARENT IN BOTH VISIBLE AND
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST THAT THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT
75 KT. THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS OF 24-25C
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, AND WILL REMAIN OVER THESE WATER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE JULIETTE TO SLOWLY
WEAKEN. AFTER 48 HOURS, SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO
IMPACT JULIETTE'S CIRCULATION. THE COMBINATION OF THE COOLER WATERS
AND SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE JULIETTE TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL REMNANT
LOW BY 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE, AND NEAR THE VARIOUS INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS.

JULIETTE'S INITIAL MOTION IS 305/10 KT. A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED BY
THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW, A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED. THE ONLY
NOTABLE CHANGE TO THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED BEYOND 48 HOURS, AS THE CONSENSUS AIDS
HAVE COME INTO A LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT ON A FASTER FORWARD MOTION
DURING THAT TIME PERIOD.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 21.8N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH

>

2019-09-06 02:52

WTPZ31 KNHC 060248
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
800 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2019

...JULIETTE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.8N 121.8W
ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.8 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,
AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY FRIDAY
NIGHT, AND DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW ON SUNDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB (28.82 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-06 02:51

WTPZ41 KNHC 060249
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Juliette has remained resilient despite moving over SSTs around
25-26C over the past several hours. Deep convection continues to
envelop the center with a ragged eye apparent in both visible and
infrared satellite imagery. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates
from both TAFB and SAB suggest that the initial intensity remains at
75 kt. The cyclone will be moving over cooler waters of 24-25C
tonight and tomorrow, and will remain over these water temperatures
for the next several days. This should cause Juliette to slowly
weaken. After 48 hours, southwesterly shear is expected to begin to
impact Juliette's circulation. The combination of the cooler waters
and shear should cause Juliette to become a post-tropical remnant
low by 72 hours. The official forecast is very similar to the
previous one, and near the various intensity consensus aids.

Juliette's initial motion is 305/10 kt. A turn to the west-northwest
is expected on Friday as the cyclone is steered by a subtropical
ridge to its north. As the cyclone weakens and becomes steered by
the low-level flow, a turn to the west is expected. The only
notable change to the new official forecast track was a slight
increase in forward speed beyond 48 hours, as the consensus aids
have come into a little better agreement on a faster forward motion
during that time period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/0300Z 21.8N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/1200Z 23.7N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 08/0000Z 23.7N 129.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/0000Z 23.5N 133.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 10/0000Z 23.3N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 11/0000Z 23.6N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

2019-09-06 02:50

WTPZ21 KNHC 060248 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 121.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.7N 127.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.7N 129.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-06 02:50

WTPZ21 KNHC 060248
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.8W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.8W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 121.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.7N 127.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.7N 129.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.6N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 121.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LATTO

>

2019-09-05 21:54

WTPN31 PHNC 052200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 019//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 21.0N 120.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 120.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.1N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.0N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.5N 126.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.8N 128.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.6N 132.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 23.3N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 23.2N 138.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
052200Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 121.1W.
05SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 725 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060400Z, 061000Z, 061600Z AND
062200Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-05 20:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 052033 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
200 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2019

JULIETTE'S STRUCTURE REMAINS WELL DEFINED IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY, WITH A LOSE BANDING EYE EVIDENT. RECENT MICROWAVES IMAGES,
HOWEVER, INDICATE THAT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE BAND AND THAT
THE EYE IS OPEN TO THE SOUTHWEST. AN AVERAGE OF THE LATEST DVORAK
DATA-T AND CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBERS FROM SAB AND TAFB YIELDS A
70 KT ESTIMATE, WHILE A UW/CIMSS AMSU ESTIMATE INDICATES 75-KT, AND
THE LATTER IS THE BASIS FOR THE NEW ADVISORY INTENSITY. JULIETTE
WILL BE MOVING OVER DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A
DRIER, AND MORE STABLE AIR MASS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THESE
UNFAVORABLE FACTORS SHOULD RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING OF THE
HURRICANE. INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR BY 72 HOURS IS LIKELY TO
CAUSE A FURTHER DEMISE OF THE CYCLONE, AND JULIETTE IS NOW
ANTICIPATED TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 3.

JULIETTE IS MOVING SLIGHTLY FASTER TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
305/10 KT. A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY. AFTER THAT TIME, A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED
AS JULIETTE WEAKENS AND COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL
EASTERLY STEERING FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL SCENARIO, THERE ARE SOME SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES IN THE FUTURE FORWARD SPEED OF JULIETTE. GIVEN THIS
MODEL SPREAD, THE NHC TRACK PREDICTION REMAINS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
TVCE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

>

2019-09-05 20:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 052033
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
200 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Juliette's structure remains well defined in visible satellite
imagery, with a lose banding eye evident. Recent microwaves images,
however, indicate that there are some breaks in the band and that
the eye is open to the southwest. An average of the latest Dvorak
data-T and current intensity (CI) numbers from SAB and TAFB yields a
70 kt estimate, while a UW/CIMSS AMSU estimate indicates 75-kt, and
the latter is the basis for the new advisory intensity. Juliette
will be moving over decreasing sea surface temperatures and into a
drier, and more stable air mass during the next few days. These
unfavorable factors should result in gradual weakening of the
hurricane. Increasing southwesterly shear by 72 hours is likely to
cause a further demise of the cyclone, and Juliette is now
anticipated to become post-tropical by day 3.

Juliette is moving slightly faster toward the northwest or
305/10 kt. A northwestward to west-northwestward motion around the
southwestern portion of a subtropical ridge should continue tonight
and Saturday. After that time, a turn toward the west is expected
as Juliette weakens and comes under the influence of the low-level
easterly steering flow. Although the track guidance is in good
agreement on this general scenario, there are some significant
differences in the future forward speed of Juliette. Given this
model spread, the NHC track prediction remains fairly close to the
TVCE multi-model consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 21.3N 120.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 23.5N 126.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 23.6N 132.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
96H 09/1800Z 23.3N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1800Z 23.2N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-05 20:35

WTPZ31 KNHC 052033
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
200 PM PDT THU SEP 05 2019

...JULIETTE FINALLY RESUMES WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.3N 120.9W
ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 120.9 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H). A MOTION TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST SHOULD BEGIN TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY. A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST ON SATURDAY AND A GENERAL WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS, AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES
(165 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 980 MB (28.94 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-05 20:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 052032 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 120.9W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 120.9W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.5N 126.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.6N 132.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-05 20:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 052032
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
2100 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 120.9W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 120.9W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 120.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.5N 126.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.8N 128.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.6N 132.2W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.3N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.2N 138.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N 120.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-05 18:11

WTPN31 PHNC 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 20.4N 119.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 119.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.5N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.6N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.3N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.6N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.6N 131.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.2N 134.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.0N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 120.2W.
05SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-05 14:59

WTPN31 PGTW 051600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 018//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 20.4N 119.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 119.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.5N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.6N 123.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.3N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.6N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.6N 131.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.2N 134.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 23.0N 137.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051600Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 120.2W.
05SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 052200Z, 060400Z, 061000Z AND 061600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-05 14:45

WTPZ41 KNHC 051442 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
800 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2019

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN JULIETTE'S CLOUD PATTERN
THIS MORNING. THE HURRICANE STILL HAS A LARGE, RAGGED EYE, BUT THE
CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THE SURROUNDING RING OF CONVECTION HAVE WARMED
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS. EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWED A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL EYE THAT IS LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
SATELLITE FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB. THE VARIOUS SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES RANGE FROM 77 TO 85 KT, SO THE INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 80 KT
IS MAINTAINED FOR THIS ADVISORY.

JULIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER GRADUALLY LOWER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS BUT THE VERTICAL SHEAR
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THIS
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT SLOWER RATE OF WEAKENING THAN IS
TYPICAL FOR EAST PACIFIC HURRICANES MOVING OVER COOL SSTS. LATER IN
THE PERIOD, SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 3 TO 4 DAYS.
THE NHC INTENSITY FOREAST IS CLOSEST TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/8 KT. A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD
MOTION AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST, AND THEN THE WEST, IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS JULIETTE GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND IS STEERED BY THE
EASTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR
THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BUT IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE

>

2019-09-05 14:44

WTPZ31 KNHC 051441
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
800 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2019

...JULIETTE STILL MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH...
...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO RESUME LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.6N 119.9W
ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A SLIGHTLY FASTER
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON
FRIDAY, AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND
JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB (28.82 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-05 14:44

WTPZ21 KNHC 051441 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 119.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.6N 127.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.6N 131.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-05 14:43

WTPZ41 KNHC 051442
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
800 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019

There has been little overall change in Juliette's cloud pattern
this morning. The hurricane still has a large, ragged eye, but the
cloud tops within the surrounding ring of convection have warmed
during the past couple of hours. Earlier microwave imagery showed a
well-defined low-level eye that is located a little south of the
satellite fixes from TAFB and SAB. The various satellite intensity
estimates range from 77 to 85 kt, so the initial wind speed of 80 kt
is maintained for this advisory.

Juliette will be moving over gradually lower sea surface
temperatures and into a more stable air mass but the vertical shear
is expected to remain fairly low during the next couple days. This
will likely result in a somewhat slower rate of weakening than is
typical for east Pacific hurricanes moving over cool SSTs. Later in
the period, southwesterly shear is expected to increase which should
cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days.
The NHC intensity foreast is closest to the SHIPS intensity model.

The initial motion estimate is 305/8 kt. A general northwestward
motion around the southwestern portion of the mid-level ridge over
the southwestern United States should continue today. A turn toward
the west-northwest, and then the west, is expected over the next
couple of days as Juliette gradually weakens and is steered by the
easterly low- to mid-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is near
the middle of the guidance envelope but is a little faster than the
previous advisory to be closer to the multi-model consensus aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 20.6N 119.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.4W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 23.6N 127.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 23.6N 131.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 23.2N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/1200Z 23.0N 137.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-05 14:43

WTPZ21 KNHC 051441
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1500 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.9W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 150SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 119.9W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 119.6W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.5N 121.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.6N 127.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.6N 131.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.2N 134.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.0N 137.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.6N 119.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-05 09:27

WTPN31 PHNC 051000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 017//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 017
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 19.9N 118.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 118.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.0N 120.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.1N 122.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.0N 124.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.6N 126.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.6N 129.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.2N 132.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 22.8N 135.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
051000Z POSITION NEAR 20.3N 119.2W.
05SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 773 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 26
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051600Z, 052200Z, 060400Z AND 061000Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-05 08:51

WTPZ41 KNHC 050849 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
200 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2019

JULIETTE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. IF ANYTHING, THE SPIRAL BANDS APPEAR TO HAVE IMPROVED A BIT
IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER, SUBJECTIVE AND
OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT INCREASED, AND THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 80 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE
DECREASING SSTS AND MOVE INTO A MORE DRY, STABLE AIR MASS, AND
ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THESE INCREASINGLY
INHIBITING ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO
GRADUALLY WEAKEN FURTHER, AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT
4 DAYS, AS THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE. THE NHC FORECAST IS
JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND FOLLOWS A BLEND OF THE HCCA
AND IVCN MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE LAST
ADVISORY PACKAGE, AND IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR 305/8 KT.
A TURN BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE STEERING FLOW PRODUCED
BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. SHOULD
OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AFTER THAT, JULIETTE SHOULD
CONTINUE MOVING IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION, WITH SOME INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED, THROUGH THE 48 HOUR PERIOD. AFTERWARD, A WESTWARD
MOTION SHOULD BEGIN AS JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A VERTICALLY
SHALLOW DEPRESSION, AND ULTIMATELY, A REMNANT LOW, AND BECOMES
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A
LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE

>

2019-09-05 08:50

WTPZ41 KNHC 050849
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
200 AM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019

Juliette's cloud pattern has changed little during the past several
hours. If anything, the spiral bands appear to have improved a bit
in the western portion of the cyclone. However, subjective and
objective satellite intensity estimates have not increased, and the
initial intensity is held at 80 kt for this advisory.

During the next 12 hours or so, the cyclone is expected to traverse
decreasing SSTs and move into a more dry, stable air mass, and
encounter increasing southwesterly shear. These increasingly
inhibiting environmental factors should cause the cyclone to
gradually weaken further, and degenerate into a remnant low in about
4 days, as the large-scale models indicate. The NHC forecast is
just an update of the previous one, and follows a blend of the HCCA
and IVCN multi-model intensity guidance.

The initial motion is a little to the right of the last
advisory package, and is estimated to be northwestward, or 305/8 kt.
A turn back to the west-northwest within the steering flow produced
by a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. should
occur during the next 24 hours. After that, Juliette should
continue moving in this general direction, with some increase in
forward speed, through the 48 hour period. Afterward, a westward
motion should begin as Juliette degenerates into a vertically
shallow depression, and ultimately, a remnant low, and becomes
steered by the low-level easterly flow. The official forecast is a
little to the right of the previous advisory and lies between the
HCCA and TVCE consensus models, and is nudged a bit toward the GEFS
ensemble mean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0900Z 20.2N 119.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 21.0N 120.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 23.6N 129.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 23.2N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0600Z 22.8N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-05 08:50

WTPZ21 KNHC 050848 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.1W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.1W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 118.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 120.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.6N 129.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-05 08:49

WTPZ31 KNHC 050848
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
200 AM PDT THU SEP 05 2019

...JULIETTE HEADING NORTHWESTWARD NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH...
...WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO RESUME TODAY...

SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.2N 119.1W
ABOUT 620 MI...995 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.1 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H). THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED ON FRIDAY AND SHOULD CONTINUE THIS MOTION THROUGH SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO RESUME TODAY AND FURTHER
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. JULIETTE
SHOULD WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM ON FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB (28.82 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-05 08:49

WTPZ21 KNHC 050848
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0900 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.1W AT 05/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 180SE 180SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.2N 119.1W AT 05/0900Z
AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 118.7W

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 120.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.6N 126.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 23.6N 129.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N 132.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 22.8N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.2N 119.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

2019-09-05 03:59

WTPN31 PHNC 050400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 19.5N 118.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 118.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.5N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.7N 121.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.6N 123.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.3N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.7N 128.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.2N 132.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 22.7N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
050400Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 118.6W.
05SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 794 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z
IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 051000Z, 051600Z, 052200Z AND 060400Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-05 02:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 050233 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
800 PM PDT WED SEP 04 2019

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JULIETTE CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
DEGRADE. THE EYE IS FILLING AND THERE IS EVIDENCE OF DRY
SLOTS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONSISTS OF A
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND CURVED OUTER BANDS. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 80 KT, TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. JULIETTE
IS STILL IN RELATIVELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, BUT THAT
IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE SOON. THE HURRICANE WILL LIKELY BE CROSSING
THE 26 DEGREE C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 12 HOURS, AND THESE COOL WATERS,
AND A DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT JULIETTE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 4 DAYS, WHEN IT WILL BE OVER SSTS OF 24 TO 25 DEGREE C. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE HCCA AND IVCN GUIDANCE.

JULIETTE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 6 KT. DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS, THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, BUT AT A FASTER PACE, STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. BEYOND THAT TIME, THE
CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHALLOW, AND IT SHOULD BE
STEERED WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE MODELS ARE
IN FAIR AGREEMENT, AND THE NHC TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 19.8N 118.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 21.7N 121.4W 70 KT 80 MPH

>

2019-09-05 02:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 050233
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
800 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019

The satellite appearance of Juliette continues to gradually
degrade. The eye is filling and there is evidence of dry
slots within the circulation. The cloud pattern consists of a
central dense overcast feature and curved outer bands. The
initial intensity is lowered to 80 kt, to be in better agreement
with the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. Juliette
is still in relatively favorable environmental conditions, but that
is expected to change soon. The hurricane will likely be crossing
the 26 degree C isotherm in about 12 hours, and these cool waters,
and a dry and stable air mass should cause steady weakening. The
GFS and ECMWF suggest that Juliette should become a remnant low in
about 4 days, when it will be over SSTs of 24 to 25 degree C. The
NHC intensity forecast closely follows the HCCA and IVCN guidance.

Juliette is moving west-northwestward at 6 kt. During the next
couple of days, the cyclone is expected to continue
west-northwestward, but at a faster pace, steered by a mid-level
ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. Beyond that time, the
cyclone is forecast to become increasingly shallow, and it should be
steered westward by the low-level trade wind flow. The models are
in fair agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies near the middle
of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/0300Z 19.8N 118.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 05/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 06/0000Z 21.7N 121.4W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 08/0000Z 23.7N 128.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 09/0000Z 23.2N 132.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 10/0000Z 22.7N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

>

2019-09-05 02:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 050232
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
800 PM PDT WED SEP 04 2019

...JULIETTE EXPECTED TO STEADILY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 118.5W
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). THE
HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY
FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS, AND JULIETTE IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL
STORM THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 976 MB (28.82 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-05 02:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 050232 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.5W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.5W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 118.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 121.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.7N 128.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

>

2019-09-05 02:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 050232
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0300 UTC THU SEP 05 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.5W AT 05/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.8N 118.5W AT 05/0300Z
AT 05/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 118.1W

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 119.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.7N 121.4W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.7N 128.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.2N 132.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 22.7N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.8N 118.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

>

2019-09-04 22:00

WTPN31 PHNC 042200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 016//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 016
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 19.2N 117.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.2N 117.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.0N 118.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.1N 120.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.1N 122.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.0N 124.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.6N 128.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.2N 131.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 22.8N 135.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
---
REMARKS:
042200Z POSITION NEAR 19.5N 118.0W.
04SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 810 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050400Z, 051000Z, 051600Z AND 052200Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-04 20:41

WTPZ41 KNHC 042038 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
200 PM PDT WED SEP 04 2019

JULIETTE CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A LARGE, RAGGED EYE IN BOTH VISIBLE
AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, BUT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS IN THE
CONVECTIVE BANDING. WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION HAS ALSO BEEN OBSERVED. RECENT MICROWAVE
DATA SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL EYE REMAINS FAIRLY WELL DEFINED, AND
THAT THE CENTER WAS LOCATED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ESTIMATES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 85 KT, WHICH IS A BLEND OF
THE VARIOUS OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES.
ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE LOW DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER DECREASING
SSTS AND INTO LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN GRADUAL WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, AND
JULIETTE IS NOW FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

THE HURRICANE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 295/6 KT. A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE EASTERN
PACIFIC SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER JULIETTE WEST- NORTHWESTWARD AT A
SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. AFTER
THAT TIME, THE CYCLONE IS PREDICTED TO TURN WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS
AND IS STEERED BY THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW. THE FARTHER SOUTH
INITIAL POSITION REQUIRED A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT OF THE EARLY
PORTION OF THE TRACK FORECAST, BUT THE LATTER PORTION REMAINS
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS

>

2019-09-04 20:40

WTPZ41 KNHC 042038
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
200 PM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Juliette continues to exhibit a large, ragged eye in both visible
and infrared satellite imagery, but there are some breaks in the
convective banding. Warming of the cloud tops over the southeastern
portion of the circulation has also been observed. Recent microwave
data show that the low-level eye remains fairly well defined, and
that the center was located a little south of the previous
estimates. The initial intensity remains 85 kt, which is a blend of
the various objective and subjective satellite intensity estimates.
Although the vertical shear is forecast to remain quite low during
the next several days, the hurricane will be moving over decreasing
SSTs and into less favorable thermodynamic conditions. This should
result in gradual weakening during the next several days, and
Juliette is now forecast to become a remnant low by the end of the
forecast period.

The hurricane is moving west-northwestward or 295/6 kt. A mid-level
ridge extending from the southwestern United States over the eastern
Pacific should continue to steer Juliette west- northwestward at a
slightly faster forward speed during the next 2 to 3 days. After
that time, the cyclone is predicted to turn westward as it weakens
and is steered by the easterly trade wind flow. The farther south
initial position required a slight southward adjustment of the early
portion of the track forecast, but the latter portion remains
similar to the previous official forecast. The track guidance is
tightly clustered and the NHC forecast is near middle of the
envelope.

The wind radii were adjusted slightly based on recent scatterometer
data.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/2100Z 19.4N 117.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 20.0N 118.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 23.6N 128.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 08/1800Z 23.2N 131.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 09/1800Z 22.8N 135.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Brown

>

2019-09-04 20:40

WTPZ31 KNHC 042038
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
200 PM PDT WED SEP 04 2019

...JULIETTE HEADING TOWARD COOLER WATERS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 117.8W
ABOUT 565 MI...905 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...973 MB...28.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H). THE HURRICANE
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD
SPEED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS
AND JULIETTE IS PREDICTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM THURSDAY
NIGHT.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 973 MB (28.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BROWN

>

2019-09-04 20:40

WTPZ21 KNHC 042037 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 117.8W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 117.8W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 118.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.6N 128.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-04 20:39

WTPZ21 KNHC 042037
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
2100 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 117.8W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 117.8W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 117.5W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 118.9W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N 122.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 124.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 23.6N 128.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 23.2N 131.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 22.8N 135.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 117.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



>

2019-09-04 16:00

WTNT82 EGRR 041559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 04.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 140.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2019 0 13.4N 140.3W 1007 25
0000UTC 05.09.2019 12 12.5N 141.8W 1006 24
1200UTC 05.09.2019 24 12.3N 143.4W 1006 24
0000UTC 06.09.2019 36 12.2N 144.9W 1005 26
1200UTC 06.09.2019 48 11.9N 146.6W 1005 31
0000UTC 07.09.2019 60 11.8N 148.6W 1003 35
1200UTC 07.09.2019 72 11.9N 151.4W 1003 35
0000UTC 08.09.2019 84 12.1N 154.0W 1002 38
1200UTC 08.09.2019 96 12.5N 157.2W 1002 36
0000UTC 09.09.2019 108 13.2N 160.5W 1000 40
1200UTC 09.09.2019 120 14.4N 164.1W 997 46
0000UTC 10.09.2019 132 15.7N 167.8W 993 49
1200UTC 10.09.2019 144 16.8N 171.3W 989 59

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 33.0N 63.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2019 0 33.0N 63.6W 1015 26
0000UTC 05.09.2019 12 34.5N 62.6W 1014 28
1200UTC 05.09.2019 24 35.5N 60.9W 1012 25
0000UTC 06.09.2019 36 36.2N 59.2W 1011 23
1200UTC 06.09.2019 48 35.9N 58.4W 1010 24
0000UTC 07.09.2019 60 36.6N 57.2W 1011 25
1200UTC 07.09.2019 72 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 79.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2019 0 29.5N 79.4W 958 70
0000UTC 05.09.2019 12 30.8N 79.7W 954 69
1200UTC 05.09.2019 24 32.0N 79.7W 948 80
0000UTC 06.09.2019 36 33.0N 78.6W 951 69
1200UTC 06.09.2019 48 34.8N 76.7W 955 72
0000UTC 07.09.2019 60 36.7N 73.1W 949 72
1200UTC 07.09.2019 72 40.3N 68.0W 936 77
0000UTC 08.09.2019 84 44.4N 63.8W 950 59
1200UTC 08.09.2019 96 48.8N 59.7W 961 59
0000UTC 09.09.2019 108 52.7N 54.1W 973 44
1200UTC 09.09.2019 120 54.1N 48.7W 981 46
0000UTC 10.09.2019 132 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 96.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2019 0 23.9N 96.8W 1003 30
0000UTC 05.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 33.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2019 0 19.7N 33.3W 1007 32
0000UTC 05.09.2019 12 20.5N 34.2W 1005 38
1200UTC 05.09.2019 24 22.0N 34.5W 1005 39
0000UTC 06.09.2019 36 23.6N 35.6W 1006 34
1200UTC 06.09.2019 48 25.9N 36.8W 1007 37
0000UTC 07.09.2019 60 28.2N 38.7W 1005 40
1200UTC 07.09.2019 72 30.3N 41.7W 989 53
0000UTC 08.09.2019 84 30.8N 44.8W 991 53
1200UTC 08.09.2019 96 31.3N 46.9W 983 58
0000UTC 09.09.2019 108 32.4N 48.6W 980 58
1200UTC 09.09.2019 120 33.9N 49.4W 977 59
0000UTC 10.09.2019 132 35.9N 48.7W 967 70
1200UTC 10.09.2019 144 37.7N 47.6W 959 77

HURRICANE JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 116.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 04.09.2019 0 19.1N 116.7W 967 64
0000UTC 05.09.2019 12 19.7N 118.1W 969 66
1200UTC 05.09.2019 24 20.5N 119.5W 973 61
0000UTC 06.09.2019 36 21.7N 121.0W 979 60
1200UTC 06.09.2019 48 22.8N 122.8W 990 48
0000UTC 07.09.2019 60 23.5N 125.0W 997 41
1200UTC 07.09.2019 72 23.9N 127.0W 1004 34
0000UTC 08.09.2019 84 23.9N 128.6W 1008 31
1200UTC 08.09.2019 96 23.7N 129.7W 1011 25
0000UTC 09.09.2019 108 23.2N 130.6W 1012 26
1200UTC 09.09.2019 120 22.7N 132.2W 1013 24
0000UTC 10.09.2019 132 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041559

>

2019-09-04 16:00

WTNT80 EGRR 041559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 04.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E ANALYSED POSITION : 13.4N 140.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2019 13.4N 140.3W WEAK
00UTC 05.09.2019 12.5N 141.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 12.3N 143.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 12.2N 144.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2019 11.9N 146.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2019 11.8N 148.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2019 11.9N 151.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2019 12.1N 154.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2019 12.5N 157.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 13.2N 160.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 14.4N 164.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2019 15.7N 167.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2019 16.8N 171.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 33.0N 63.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2019 33.0N 63.6W WEAK
00UTC 05.09.2019 34.5N 62.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 35.5N 60.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 36.2N 59.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2019 35.9N 58.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2019 36.6N 57.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 29.5N 79.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.5N 79.4W INTENSE
00UTC 05.09.2019 30.8N 79.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 32.0N 79.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2019 33.0N 78.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2019 34.8N 76.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2019 36.7N 73.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2019 40.3N 68.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 44.4N 63.8W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 08.09.2019 48.8N 59.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2019 52.7N 54.1W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.09.2019 54.1N 48.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 10.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND ANALYSED POSITION : 23.9N 96.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2019 23.9N 96.8W WEAK
00UTC 05.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 33.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2019 19.7N 33.3W WEAK
00UTC 05.09.2019 20.5N 34.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 22.0N 34.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 23.6N 35.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2019 25.9N 36.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2019 28.2N 38.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2019 30.3N 41.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 30.8N 44.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2019 31.3N 46.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 09.09.2019 32.4N 48.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 33.9N 49.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2019 35.9N 48.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 10.09.2019 37.7N 47.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

HURRICANE JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 19.1N 116.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 04.09.2019 19.1N 116.7W STRONG
00UTC 05.09.2019 19.7N 118.1W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 20.5N 119.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 21.7N 121.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2019 22.8N 122.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2019 23.5N 125.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2019 23.9N 127.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 23.9N 128.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2019 23.7N 129.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 23.2N 130.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 22.7N 132.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 041559

>

2019-09-04 15:54

WTPN31 PHNC 041600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 015
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 19.3N 116.8W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 116.8W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.1N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.9N 119.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.8N 121.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.7N 123.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.4N 127.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.0N 131.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 23.0N 135.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041600Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 117.3W.
04SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 804 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z
IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 042200Z, 050400Z, 051000Z AND 051600Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 12E (TWELVE) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-04 14:50

WTPZ41 KNHC 041448 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
800 AM PDT WED SEP 04 2019

JULIETTE CONTINUES TO LOOK SOMEWHAT RAGGED IN CONVENTIONAL INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS MORNING. A WARM SPOT, WHICH APPEARS TO BE AN
EYE, HAS BEEN SHOWING UP INTERMITTENTLY DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. A 0914Z AMSR MICROWAVE PASS INDICATED THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN
IN THE SOUTH QUADRANT, SO ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ADDITIONAL
WEAKENING HAS TAKEN PLACE. THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS PROVIDED BY THE SATELLITE FIX AGENCIES ALSO SUGGEST
WEAKENING. BASED ON THIS INPUT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO
85 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION FOR THIS ADVISORY IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR
295/5 KT. JULIETTE IS BEING STEERED BY THE CIRCULATION AROUND A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO STEER JULIETTE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER
FORWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD, A WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS JULIETTE WEAKENS,
AND LIKELY LOSES MOST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION. THE WEAKENING SYSTEM
WILL BE STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE LATEST TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST PACKAGE. THIS MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE LATEST TRUSTED
GUIDANCE, ESPECIALLY THE MOST RECENT NOAA HFIP HCCA AND THE TVCE
CORRECTED VARIABLE CONSENSUS MODEL.

COOLER OCEANIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT,

>

2019-09-04 14:49

WTPZ41 KNHC 041448
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019

Juliette continues to look somewhat ragged in conventional infrared
satellite imagery this morning. A warm spot, which appears to be an
eye, has been showing up intermittently during the past several
hours. A 0914Z AMSR microwave pass indicated the eyewall was open
in the south quadrant, so all indications are that additional
weakening has taken place. The latest subjective and objective
T-numbers provided by the satellite fix agencies also suggest
weakening. Based on this input, the initial intensity is lowered to
85 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion for this advisory is west-northwestward, or
295/5 kt. Juliette is being steered by the circulation around a
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending over the northeastern
Pacific from the southwestern United States. This feature is
expected to steer Juliette west-northwestward at a slightly faster
forward motion during the next few days. Toward the end of the
forecast period, a westward motion is forecast as Juliette weakens,
and likely loses most of its deep convection. The weakening system
will be steered by the low-level easterly flow. The latest track
forecast has been shifted slightly to the right of the previous
forecast package. This more closely follows the latest trusted
guidance, especially the most recent NOAA HFIP HCCA and the TVCE
corrected variable consensus model.

Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, reduced ocean heat content,
an intruding dry, stable, surrounding environment, and increasing
southwesterly shear should cause steady weakening of the cyclone
during the next 5 days. The latest intensity forecast continues to
show a slightly faster weakening trend compared with the previous
advisory package. Note that much of the guidance suggests the
weakening trend may be even faster than the official forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/1500Z 19.5N 117.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 05/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 05/1200Z 20.9N 119.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 06/0000Z 21.8N 121.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 06/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 07/1200Z 23.4N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 08/1200Z 23.0N 131.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 09/1200Z 23.0N 135.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

>

2019-09-04 14:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 041433
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019

...JULIETTE WEAKENING OVER THE PACIFIC FAR FROM ANY LAND AREAS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 117.1W
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was
located near latitude 19.5 North, longitude 117.1 West. Juliette
is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). Juliette
is expected to move west-northwest at a slightly faster forward
speed during the next few days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Additional slow weakening is forecast during the next
several days.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Houston

>

2019-09-04 14:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 041432 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 117.1W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 117.1W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 116.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.9N 119.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.8N 121.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.4N 127.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

>

2019-09-04 14:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 041432
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1500 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 117.1W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 180SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.5N 117.1W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 116.8W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.1N 118.2W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.9N 119.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.8N 121.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.7N 123.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.4N 127.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 23.0N 131.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 23.0N 135.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.5N 117.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

>

2019-09-04 09:45

WTPN31 PHNC 041000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 116.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 116.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.5N 117.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.3N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.1N 120.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.0N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.0N 126.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 23.0N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 23.0N 134.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
041000Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 116.6W.
04SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 830 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041600Z, 042200Z, 050400Z AND 051000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-04 08:50

WTPZ41 KNHC 040846 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM PDT WED SEP 04 2019

THE APPEARANCE OF JULIETTE IN SATELLITE CONTINUES TO SHOW A
WEAKENING TREND EARLY THIS MORNING. MULTIPLE WARM SPOTS ARE
EVIDENT IN INFRARED IMAGERY, BUT THERE HAS NOT BEEN A CONSISTENT
WELL-DEFINED EYE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE LATEST
SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS PROVIDED BY THE SATELLITE FIX
AGENCIES ALSO CONTINUE TO SHOW GRADUAL WEAKENING. BASED ON THIS
INPUT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 95 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
NOTE THAT A 0410Z ASCAT PASS WAS USED TO ADJUST THE INITIAL WIND
RADII FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE APPARENT MOTION APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
12 HOURS. FOR THIS ADVISORY, THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 300/5 KT. JULIETTE IS BEING STEERED BY THE
CIRCULATION AROUND A MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING
OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO STEER JULIETTE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A
WESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS JULIETTE WEAKENS AND LOSES MOST OF
ITS DEEP CONVECTION. THE WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL THEN LIKELY BE
STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST
IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY PACKAGE, WITH SOME NUDGING TOWARD
THE MOST RECENT NOAA HFIP HCCA, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND THE GFEX
CONSENSUS MODEL.

COOLER OCEANIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AN INTRUDING DRY, STABLE,
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT, AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD

>

2019-09-04 08:49

WTPZ31 KNHC 040846
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
200 AM PDT WED SEP 04 2019

...JULIETTE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE OPEN OCEAN...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.1N 116.4W
ABOUT 495 MI...795 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...966 MB...28.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.4 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH (9 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 110 MPH (175 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ADDITIONAL SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
(185 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 966 MB (28.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER HOUSTON

>

2019-09-04 08:49

WTPZ21 KNHC 040845 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.4W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.4W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 116.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 126.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

>

2019-09-04 08:48

WTPZ41 KNHC 040846
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
Issued by NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 AM PDT Wed Sep 04 2019

The appearance of Juliette in satellite continues to show a
weakening trend early this morning. Multiple warm spots are
evident in infrared imagery, but there has not been a consistent
well-defined eye during the past several hours. The latest
subjective and objective T-numbers provided by the satellite fix
agencies also continue to show gradual weakening. Based on this
input, the initial intensity is lowered to 95 kt for this advisory.
Note that a 0410z ASCAT pass was used to adjust the initial wind
radii for this advisory.

The apparent motion appears to be somewhat slower than the previous
12 hours. For this advisory, the initial motion estimate is
west-northwestward, or 300/5 kt. Juliette is being steered by the
circulation around a mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending
over the northeastern Pacific from the southwestern United States.
This feature is expected to steer Juliette west-northwestward
during the next few days. Toward the end of the forecast period, a
westward motion is forecast as Juliette weakens and loses most of
its deep convection. The weakening system will then likely be
steered by the low-level easterly flow. The latest track forecast
is close to the previous advisory package, with some nudging toward
the most recent NOAA HFIP HCCA, ECMWF ensemble mean, and the GFEX
consensus model.

Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, an intruding dry, stable,
surrounding environment, and increasing southwesterly shear should
cause steady weakening of the cyclone during the next 5 days. The
latest intensity forecast is showing a slightly faster weakening
trend compared with the previous advisory package. Note that much
of the guidance suggests the weakening trend may be even faster
than the official forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0900Z 19.1N 116.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 04/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 06/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 07/0600Z 23.0N 126.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
96H 08/0600Z 23.0N 130.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 09/0600Z 23.0N 134.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Houston

>

2019-09-04 08:47

WTPZ21 KNHC 040845
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
ISSUED BY NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0900 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.4W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 966 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 116.4W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 116.1W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 120.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 15SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 126.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 23.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 134.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 116.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON

>

2019-09-04 04:01

WTNT82 EGRR 040400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 04.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.7N 66.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2019 0 31.7N 66.4W 1014 22
1200UTC 04.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 28.2N 79.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2019 0 28.2N 79.0W 959 70
1200UTC 04.09.2019 12 29.4N 79.7W 955 72
0000UTC 05.09.2019 24 30.5N 80.2W 948 75
1200UTC 05.09.2019 36 31.5N 80.2W 950 71
0000UTC 06.09.2019 48 32.7N 79.0W 947 73
1200UTC 06.09.2019 60 34.5N 77.3W 954 72
0000UTC 07.09.2019 72 36.2N 73.8W 957 67
1200UTC 07.09.2019 84 39.0N 68.9W 945 79
0000UTC 08.09.2019 96 42.0N 63.8W 948 71
1200UTC 08.09.2019 108 45.5N 57.4W 967 55
0000UTC 09.09.2019 120 51.5N 50.7W 982 40
1200UTC 09.09.2019 132 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 95.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2019 0 22.8N 95.8W 1004 35
1200UTC 04.09.2019 12 23.7N 97.0W 1004 31
0000UTC 05.09.2019 24 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELL ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 32.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2019 0 18.6N 32.8W 1010 26
1200UTC 04.09.2019 12 19.1N 33.8W 1010 28
0000UTC 05.09.2019 24 20.3N 33.5W 1009 34
1200UTC 05.09.2019 36 21.1N 34.2W 1008 35
0000UTC 06.09.2019 48 22.3N 35.4W 1010 31
1200UTC 06.09.2019 60 23.9N 36.5W 1010 31
0000UTC 07.09.2019 72 26.5N 38.2W 1011 33
1200UTC 07.09.2019 84 28.7N 39.6W 1009 34
0000UTC 08.09.2019 96 31.2N 41.3W 1010 37
1200UTC 08.09.2019 108 33.3N 43.8W 1010 31
0000UTC 09.09.2019 120 35.0N 45.2W 1012 28
1200UTC 09.09.2019 132 36.7N 45.3W 1013 26
0000UTC 10.09.2019 144 38.4N 45.2W 1012 26

HURRICANE JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 115.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 04.09.2019 0 18.9N 115.8W 966 68
1200UTC 04.09.2019 12 19.2N 117.0W 961 70
0000UTC 05.09.2019 24 19.8N 118.4W 963 67
1200UTC 05.09.2019 36 20.7N 119.9W 972 61
0000UTC 06.09.2019 48 21.9N 121.6W 980 56
1200UTC 06.09.2019 60 22.7N 123.4W 991 45
0000UTC 07.09.2019 72 23.5N 125.4W 999 38
1200UTC 07.09.2019 84 23.5N 127.3W 1005 30
0000UTC 08.09.2019 96 23.3N 129.2W 1009 27
1200UTC 08.09.2019 108 22.8N 131.5W 1011 26
0000UTC 09.09.2019 120 22.5N 133.9W 1012 24
1200UTC 09.09.2019 132 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.1N 140.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 05.09.2019 24 13.1N 141.2W 1005 25
1200UTC 05.09.2019 36 12.8N 142.9W 1005 24
0000UTC 06.09.2019 48 12.6N 143.9W 1003 29
1200UTC 06.09.2019 60 12.3N 145.6W 1000 39
0000UTC 07.09.2019 72 12.3N 147.4W 997 42
1200UTC 07.09.2019 84 12.5N 149.5W 991 54
0000UTC 08.09.2019 96 12.8N 152.1W 983 58
1200UTC 08.09.2019 108 13.4N 155.2W 980 62
0000UTC 09.09.2019 120 14.3N 158.7W 981 62
1200UTC 09.09.2019 132 15.7N 162.1W 984 59
0000UTC 10.09.2019 144 17.3N 165.1W 984 55

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 37.2N 60.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 06.09.2019 48 37.6N 59.6W 1009 24
1200UTC 06.09.2019 60 38.8N 57.0W 1007 27
0000UTC 07.09.2019 72 39.7N 54.9W 1007 29
1200UTC 07.09.2019 84 43.2N 51.3W 1008 26
0000UTC 08.09.2019 96 CEASED TRACKING


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 040359

>

2019-09-04 04:01

WTNT80 EGRR 040359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 04.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 31.7N 66.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.09.2019 31.7N 66.4W WEAK
12UTC 04.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 28.2N 79.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.09.2019 28.2N 79.0W INTENSE
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.4N 79.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 30.5N 80.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2019 31.5N 80.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 32.7N 79.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2019 34.5N 77.3W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2019 36.2N 73.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2019 39.0N 68.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 42.0N 63.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2019 45.5N 57.4W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 09.09.2019 51.5N 50.7W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 09.09.2019 POST-TROPICAL

TROPICAL STORM FERNAND ANALYSED POSITION : 22.8N 95.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL072019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.09.2019 22.8N 95.8W WEAK
12UTC 04.09.2019 23.7N 97.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM GABRIELL ANALYSED POSITION : 18.6N 32.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.09.2019 18.6N 32.8W WEAK
12UTC 04.09.2019 19.1N 33.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2019 20.3N 33.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 21.1N 34.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 22.3N 35.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2019 23.9N 36.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2019 26.5N 38.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2019 28.7N 39.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2019 31.2N 41.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2019 33.3N 43.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 35.0N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 36.7N 45.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2019 38.4N 45.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

HURRICANE JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 18.9N 115.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 04.09.2019 18.9N 115.8W STRONG
12UTC 04.09.2019 19.2N 117.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 19.8N 118.4W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 20.7N 119.9W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2019 21.9N 121.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2019 22.7N 123.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2019 23.5N 125.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2019 23.5N 127.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 23.3N 129.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2019 22.8N 131.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 22.5N 133.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 13.1N 140.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 05.09.2019 13.1N 141.2W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.09.2019 12.8N 142.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 12.6N 143.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2019 12.3N 145.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2019 12.3N 147.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2019 12.5N 149.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 12.8N 152.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2019 13.4N 155.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 14.3N 158.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 09.09.2019 15.7N 162.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 10.09.2019 17.3N 165.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 37.2N 60.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 06.09.2019 37.6N 59.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2019 38.8N 57.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2019 39.7N 54.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2019 43.2N 51.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 040359

>

2019-09-04 03:34

WTPN31 PHNC 040400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 18.8N 115.9W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.8N 115.9W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.3N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 20.0N 118.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.8N 120.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.6N 122.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.1N 126.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 23.5N 130.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 23.5N 134.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
040400Z POSITION NEAR 19.0N 116.3W.
04SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 836 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041000Z, 041600Z, 042200Z AND 050400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-04 02:37

WTPZ41 KNHC 040234 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 03 2019

A RECENT AMSR2-GW1 MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED THAT JULIETTE'S EYEWALL HAD
COLLAPSED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT. CURVED BANDING FEATURES IN
THAT PORTION OF THE CYCLONE'S CLOUD PATTERN HAVE BECOME FRAGMENTED
AS WELL. SUBSEQUENTLY, IT APPEARS THAT JULIETTE IS ON THE DECLINE,
AND BOTH SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS SUPPORT THIS RECENT
TREND. BASED ON THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 105
KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. COOLER OCEANIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AN
INTRUDING DRY, STABLE, SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT, AND INCREASING
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN
FURTHER, AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 295/6 KT. A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD STEER JULIETTE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TOWARD THE END
OF THE PERIOD, A WESTWARD MOTION SHOULD COMMENCE AS JULIETTE
DEGENERATES INTO A VERTICALLY SHALLOW DEPRESSION, AND ULTIMATELY, A
REMNANT LOW, AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW. THE
NHC FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK,
AND LIES BETWEEN THE NOAA HFIP HCCA AND TVCE SIMPLE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 19.0N 116.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.0N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W 75 KT 85 MPH

>

2019-09-04 02:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 040234
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
800 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019

A recent AMSR2-GW1 microwave pass showed that Juliette's eyewall had
collapsed in the southwestern quadrant. Curved banding features in
that portion of the cyclone's cloud pattern have become fragmented
as well. Subsequently, it appears that Juliette is on the decline,
and both subjective and objective T-numbers support this recent
trend. Based on these data, the initial intensity is lowered to 105
kt for this advisory. Cooler oceanic sea surface temperatures, an
intruding dry, stable, surrounding environment, and increasing
southwesterly shear should cause the cyclone to gradually weaken
further, and continue through the entire forecast period.

The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 295/6 kt. A
mid-tropospheric subtropical ridge extending over the northeastern
Pacific from the southwestern United States should steer Juliette
west-northwestward through the next several days. Toward the end
of the period, a westward motion should commence as Juliette
degenerates into a vertically shallow depression, and ultimately, a
remnant low, and becomes steered by the low-level easterly flow. The
NHC forecast is basically an update of the previous advisory track,
and lies between the NOAA HFIP HCCA and TVCE simple multi-model
consensus.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 04/0300Z 19.0N 116.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W 95 KT 110 MPH
24H 05/0000Z 20.0N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 05/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 06/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 07/0000Z 23.1N 126.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 08/0000Z 23.5N 130.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 09/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-04 02:36

WTPZ31 KNHC 040233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
800 PM PDT TUE SEP 03 2019

...JULIETTE WEAKENS SOME...
...MOVING AWAY FROM CLARION ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 116.2W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 116.2 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JULIETTE IS STILL A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM). A MEXICAN NAVY STATION ON CLARION ISLAND REPORTED
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST HOUR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 958 MB (28.29 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 200 AM PDT.

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-04 02:36

WTPZ21 KNHC 040233 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.2W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.2W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.0N 118.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.1N 126.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-04 02:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 040233
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0300 UTC WED SEP 04 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.2W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 958 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 116.2W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.1W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.0N 118.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.8N 120.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.6N 122.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.1N 126.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 23.5N 130.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 116.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-03 22:13

WTPN31 PHNC 032200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 18.5N 115.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 115.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.0N 116.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.6N 117.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.3N 119.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.1N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 22.6N 125.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 23.5N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 23.5N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
032200Z POSITION NEAR 18.7N 115.7W.
03SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 858 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040400Z, 041000Z, 041600Z AND 042200Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-03 20:39

WTPZ41 KNHC 032036 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 03 2019

JULIETTE HAS LEVELED OFF IN INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE EYE
BECOMING CLOUD FILLED, AND THE EYEWALL CONVECTION WEAKENING IN THE
NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL WIND SPEED REMAINS 110 KT FOR
THIS ADVISORY, AND IT IS PROBABLE JULIETTE IS ABOUT TO GO ON A
DOWNHILL TREND. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY GRADUALLY COOLING WATERS
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH THE HURRICANE BECOMING MORE
EMBEDDED IN THE DRY MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
NORTH OF 20N. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT, SO THE LATEST
NHC INTENSITY PREDICTION IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
AND IS WITHIN 5 KT OF THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AT ALL TIMES.

THE INITIAL MOTION HAS TURNED A LITTLE MORE TO THE LEFT AND SLOWED,
NOW 295/6 KT. THERE'S BEEN NO CHANGE TO THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH
A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES PROVIDING A
SEEMINGLY RELIABLE STEERING CURRENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS,
GRADUALLY BENDING THE HURRICANE WESTWARD WITH TIME AND SPEEDING IT
UP DUE TO THE RIDGE BUILDING TO THE NORTH. THE ONLY MINOR CHANGE TO
REPORT IS A SMALL WESTWARD TREND NOTED IN THE BULK OF THE MODELS,
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THUS THE NEW FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
IN THAT DIRECTION, CLOSE TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC MODEL CONSENSUS
TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 18.6N 115.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 21.1N 121.3W 70 KT 80 MPH

>

2019-09-03 20:37

WTPZ41 KNHC 032036
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
200 PM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Juliette has leveled off in intensity this afternoon with the eye
becoming cloud filled, and the eyewall convection weakening in the
northeastern quadrant. The initial wind speed remains 110 kt for
this advisory, and it is probable Juliette is about to go on a
downhill trend. This is supported by gradually cooling waters
during the next few days along with the hurricane becoming more
embedded in the dry mid-level environment of the eastern Pacific
north of 20N. Models remain in very good agreement, so the latest
NHC intensity prediction is basically an update of the previous one
and is within 5 kt of the intensity consensus at all times.

The initial motion has turned a little more to the left and slowed,
now 295/6 kt. There's been no change to the synoptic pattern with
a large ridge over the southwestern United States providing a
seemingly reliable steering current during the next several days,
gradually bending the hurricane westward with time and speeding it
up due to the ridge building to the north. The only minor change to
report is a small westward trend noted in the bulk of the models,
similar to the previous advisory. Thus the new forecast is adjusted
in that direction, close to the eastern Pacific model consensus
TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/2100Z 18.6N 115.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 04/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 05/1800Z 21.1N 121.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 06/1800Z 22.6N 125.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
96H 07/1800Z 23.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
120H 08/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-03 20:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 032031
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
200 PM PDT TUE SEP 03 2019

...JULIETTE MOVING AWAY FROM CLARION ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 115.6W
ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS
GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. JULIETTE IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 72
HOURS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM). A MEXICAN NAVY STATION ON CLARION ISLAND WAS STILL
REPORTING HURICANE-FORCE WIND GUSTS DURING THE PAST HOUR.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB (28.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 800 PM PDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-03 20:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 032031 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.6W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.6W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 115.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 121.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.6N 125.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

>

2019-09-03 20:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 032031
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
2100 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.6W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 115.6W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 115.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 117.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.3N 119.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 121.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.6N 125.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 23.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 23.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 115.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-03 17:26

WTPN31 PHNC 031600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 010//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031200Z --- NEAR 18.2N 114.7W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.2N 114.7W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.8N 116.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.3N 117.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.9N 118.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.6N 120.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.2N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.2N 129.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 23.5N 132.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031600Z POSITION NEAR 18.4N 115.1W.
03SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 880 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 032200Z, 040400Z, 041000Z AND 041600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-03 14:50

WTPZ41 KNHC 031448 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 03 2019

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT JULIETTE CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY,
WITH A DISTINCT EYE BECOMING APPARENT IN ADDITION TO A MORE
SYMMETRIC CLOUD PATTERN. THE CENTER OF THE EYE MOVED JUST SOUTHWEST
OF CLARION ISLAND A FEW HOURS AGO, BRINGING 89-KT SUSTAINED WINDS
AND A WIND GUST TO 113 KT ACCORDING TO DATA FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY.
A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE ESTIMATES GIVES AN
INITIAL WIND SPEED OF 110 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SOME FURTHER
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE JULIETTE MOVES OVER MARGINAL
WATERS, WITH CONTINUED WEAKENING LIKELY AFTERWARD THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD DUE TO COOLING SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO GOOD AGREEMENT SINCE THE PAST
ADVISORY, AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE LAST NHC
FORECAST.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7 KT. A LARGE RIDGE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD PROVIDE A STEADY STEERING CURRENT
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, GRADUALLY BENDING THE HURRICANE
WESTWARD WITH TIME. MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED, WITH ONLY
MINOR LONG-RANGE DIFFERENCES IN HOW SHARPLY THE CYCLONE TURNS
WESTWARD. THE NEW NHC TRACK PREDICTION IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH 72 H. THERE'S BEEN A SUBTLE WESTWARD MODEL
SHIFT AT DAYS 4 AND 5, SO THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT TREND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 18.4N 115.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 18.8N 116.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.3W 105 KT 120 MPH

>

2019-09-03 14:49

WTPZ41 KNHC 031448
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Satellite images show that Juliette continues to rapidly intensify,
with a distinct eye becoming apparent in addition to a more
symmetric cloud pattern. The center of the eye moved just southwest
of Clarion Island a few hours ago, bringing 89-kt sustained winds
and a wind gust to 113 kt according to data from the Mexican Navy.
A blend of the subjective and objective satellite estimates gives an
initial wind speed of 110 kt for this advisory. Some further
strengthening is possible today before Juliette moves over marginal
waters, with continued weakening likely afterward through the end
of the forecast period due to cooling sea-surface temperatures.
Intensity guidance has come into good agreement since the past
advisory, and no significant changes were required to the last NHC
forecast.

The initial motion estimate is 305/7 kt. A large ridge over the
southwestern United States should provide a steady steering current
during the next several days, gradually bending the hurricane
westward with time. Model guidance is tightly clustered, with only
minor long-range differences in how sharply the cyclone turns
westward. The new NHC track prediction is very close to the
previous one through 72 h. There's been a subtle westward model
shift at days 4 and 5, so the NHC forecast follows that trend.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/1500Z 18.4N 115.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 04/0000Z 18.8N 116.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 05/0000Z 19.9N 118.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 05/1200Z 20.6N 120.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 06/1200Z 22.2N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 07/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-03 14:48

WTPZ31 KNHC 031446 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
800 AM PDT TUE SEP 03 2019

...JULIETTE BRINGS A 130-MPH WIND GUST TO CLARION ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 115.0W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.0 WEST. JULIETTE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND A NORTHWEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 125 MPH (205 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JULIETTE IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE TODAY, WITH WEAKENING FORECAST TO BEGIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM). A MEXICAN NAVY STATION ON CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY
REPORTED SUSTAINED WINDS OF 99 MPH (159 KM/H) WITH A PEAK GUST OF
130 MPH (209 KM/H).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 953 MB (28.14 INCHES)
BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES AND DATA FROM THE MEXICAN NAVY STATION

>

2019-09-03 14:47

WTPZ31 KNHC 031446
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
800 AM PDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...JULIETTE BRINGS A 130-MPH WIND GUST TO CLARION ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 115.0W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.14 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Juliette was located
near latitude 18.4 North, longitude 115.0 West. Juliette is moving
toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a northwest to
west-northwest motion is expected through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 125 mph (205 km/h)
with higher gusts. Juliette is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is
possible today, with weakening forecast to begin by late Wednesday
and continuing through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km). A Mexican Navy station on Clarion Island recently
reported sustained winds of 99 mph (159 km/h) with a peak gust of
130 mph (209 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb (28.14 inches)
based on satellite estimates and data from the Mexican Navy station
on Clarion Island.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-03 14:47

WTPZ21 KNHC 031445 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.8N 116.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 118.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.6N 120.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.2N 124.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.

>

2019-09-03 14:46

WTPZ21 KNHC 031445
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1500 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 953 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 150SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.7W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.8N 116.0W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.3N 117.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 118.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.6N 120.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.2N 124.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.2N 129.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 23.5N 132.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 115.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-03 10:07

WTPN31 PHNC 031000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 009//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030600Z --- NEAR 18.0N 114.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.0N 114.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.7N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.2N 116.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.7N 118.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.4N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 22.0N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.4N 128.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 24.0N 132.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
031000Z POSITION NEAR 18.2N 114.7W.
03SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 896 NM
SOUTH OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031600Z, 032200Z, 040400Z AND 041000Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-03 08:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 030831 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 03 2019

JULIETTE HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED 50 KT SINCE THIS TIME LAST NIGHT,
AND THE RECENT SATELLITE SIGNATURE HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 105 KT IS BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T5.5/102 KT FROM TAFB, SAB, AND UW-CIMSS ADT, AND ALSO
THE RECENTLY IMPROVED EYE PATTERN.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08 KT. A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF JULIETTE SHOULD KEEP THE
HURRICANE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY, WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. BY
DAY 5, A WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS JULIETTE WEAKENS
CONSIDERABLY AND BECOMES STEERED BY THE EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW.
THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OR TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES BETWEEN THE CONSENSUS MODELS HCCA
AND TVCE TO THE NORTH, AND FSSE TO THE SOUTH.

SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST WITH JULIETTE POSSIBLY
REACHING CATEGORY 4 STATUS LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THEREAFTER, COLD
UPWELLING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN, WHICH WILL INDUCE A SLOW WEAKENING
TREND ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEAKENING RATE IS EXPECTED TO BE TEMPERED
BY LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS AND A VERY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW REGIME. BY DAY 3 AND BEYOND, HOWEVER, MORE SIGNIFICANT
UPWELLING IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE WEAKENING PROCESS, WITH RAPID
WEAKENING BECOMING A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND LIES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND THEN

>

2019-09-03 08:33

WTPZ31 KNHC 030830 RRA
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
300 AM MDT TUE SEP 03 2019

...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JULIETTE BEARING DOWN ON CLARION ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 114.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CLARION ISLAND MEXICO
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.5 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH (195 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. JULIETTE IS A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND JULIETTE COULD BECOME A
CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. STEADY
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE
CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES (205 KM). A MEXICAN NAVY AUTOMATED WEATHER STATION LOCATED ON
CLARION ISLAND RECENTLY REPORTED A SUSTAINED WIND OF 57 MPH (91

>

2019-09-03 08:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 030830 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.5W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.5W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.2N 116.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N 118.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.4N 120.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

>

2019-09-03 08:32

WTPZ41 KNHC 030831
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019

Juliette has rapidly intensified 50 kt since this time last night,
and the recent satellite signature has continued to improve. The
initial intensity of 105 kt is based on satellite intensity
estimates of T5.5/102 kt from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT, and also
the recently improved eye pattern.

The initial motion estimate is 310/08 kt. A large subtropical ridge
located to the north and northeast of Juliette should keep the
hurricane moving northwestward today, followed by a turn toward the
west-northwest on Wednesday, which should continue into Friday. By
day 5, a westward motion is expected to begin as Juliette weakens
considerably and becomes steered by the easterly trade wind flow.
The new official forecast is a little north or to the right of the
previous advisory track, and lies between the consensus models HCCA
and TVCE to the north, and FSSE to the south.

Some additional strengthening is forecast with Juliette possibly
reaching category 4 status later today or tonight. Thereafter, cold
upwelling is expected to begin, which will induce a slow weakening
trend on Wednesday. The weakening rate is expected to be tempered
by low vertical shear conditions and a very favorable upper-level
outflow regime. By day 3 and beyond, however, more significant
upwelling is expected to enhance the weakening process, with rapid
weakening becoming a distinct possibility on days 4 and 5. The new
NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and lies
slightly above all of the guidance for the next 24 hours, and then
closely follows the IVCN and HCCA consensus models on days 2-5.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0900Z 18.2N 114.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 03/1800Z 18.7N 115.6W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/0600Z 19.2N 116.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 04/1800Z 19.7N 118.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 05/0600Z 20.4N 120.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/0600Z 22.0N 124.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 07/0600Z 23.4N 128.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/0600Z 24.0N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-03 08:31

WTPZ31 KNHC 030830
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
300 AM MDT Tue Sep 03 2019

...CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE JULIETTE BEARING DOWN ON CLARION ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 114.5W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SE OF CLARION ISLAND MEXICO
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 114.5 West. Juliette is
moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 120 mph (195 km/h)
with higher gusts. Juliette is a category 3 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening
is forecast during the next 24 hours, and Juliette could become a
category 4 hurricane later today or early Wednesday. Steady
weakening is expected to begin by late Wednesday and continue
through Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125
miles (205 km). A Mexican Navy automated weather station located on
Clarion Island recently reported a sustained wind of 57 mph (91
km/h) and a gust to 74 mph (118 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-03 08:31

WTPZ21 KNHC 030830
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0900 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.5W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.5W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.7N 115.6W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.2N 116.9W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.7N 118.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.4N 120.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.0N 124.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.4N 128.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 24.0N 132.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 114.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART



>

2019-09-03 04:02

WTNT82 EGRR 030400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 93.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.09.2019 0 22.5N 93.9W 1008 23
1200UTC 03.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 29.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.09.2019 0 15.7N 29.8W 1010 21
1200UTC 03.09.2019 12 17.9N 31.0W 1010 23
0000UTC 04.09.2019 24 18.4N 32.3W 1010 26
1200UTC 04.09.2019 36 19.3N 32.1W 1010 31
0000UTC 05.09.2019 48 20.8N 31.9W 1010 33
1200UTC 05.09.2019 60 21.4N 32.3W 1009 31
0000UTC 06.09.2019 72 22.3N 33.1W 1011 29
1200UTC 06.09.2019 84 23.7N 34.7W 1012 25
0000UTC 07.09.2019 96 26.4N 36.5W 1012 27
1200UTC 07.09.2019 108 28.1N 37.6W 1012 27
0000UTC 08.09.2019 120 29.8N 38.6W 1013 28
1200UTC 08.09.2019 132 31.7N 40.5W 1014 29
0000UTC 09.09.2019 144 33.4N 42.9W 1015 28

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 66.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.09.2019 0 28.4N 66.7W 1013 23
1200UTC 03.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N 78.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.09.2019 0 26.9N 78.4W 959 73
1200UTC 03.09.2019 12 27.0N 78.5W 960 67
0000UTC 04.09.2019 24 27.8N 78.7W 955 73
1200UTC 04.09.2019 36 29.2N 79.4W 946 80
0000UTC 05.09.2019 48 30.7N 79.6W 933 87
1200UTC 05.09.2019 60 32.2N 79.2W 927 91
0000UTC 06.09.2019 72 33.8N 77.6W 935 82
1200UTC 06.09.2019 84 35.3N 75.4W 946 74
0000UTC 07.09.2019 96 37.5N 71.7W 943 75
1200UTC 07.09.2019 108 40.6N 67.8W 940 70
0000UTC 08.09.2019 120 44.2N 63.8W 951 56
1200UTC 08.09.2019 132 48.4N 61.7W 954 58
0000UTC 09.09.2019 144 50.9N 57.6W 967 50

HURRICANE JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 113.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.09.2019 0 17.5N 113.9W 984 53
1200UTC 03.09.2019 12 17.8N 115.4W 978 57
0000UTC 04.09.2019 24 18.3N 116.5W 974 57
1200UTC 04.09.2019 36 18.9N 117.7W 968 61
0000UTC 05.09.2019 48 19.7N 119.6W 961 66
1200UTC 05.09.2019 60 20.3N 121.6W 967 67
0000UTC 06.09.2019 72 21.3N 123.6W 978 59
1200UTC 06.09.2019 84 21.7N 126.1W 988 46
0000UTC 07.09.2019 96 22.3N 128.7W 994 44
1200UTC 07.09.2019 108 22.5N 131.3W 1000 41
0000UTC 08.09.2019 120 22.7N 133.6W 1003 40
1200UTC 08.09.2019 132 23.0N 136.4W 1004 39
0000UTC 09.09.2019 144 23.1N 138.9W 1007 36

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.3N 27.4W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2019 96 14.3N 27.4W 1011 23
1200UTC 07.09.2019 108 15.5N 29.8W 1010 24
0000UTC 08.09.2019 120 17.0N 32.5W 1011 24
1200UTC 08.09.2019 132 18.1N 35.3W 1012 25
0000UTC 09.09.2019 144 19.5N 37.9W 1014 24


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030400

>

2019-09-03 04:02

WTNT80 EGRR 030400

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 03.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.5N 93.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.09.2019 22.5N 93.9W WEAK
12UTC 03.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.7N 29.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.09.2019 15.7N 29.8W WEAK
12UTC 03.09.2019 17.9N 31.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2019 18.4N 32.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2019 19.3N 32.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2019 20.8N 31.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 21.4N 32.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 22.3N 33.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2019 23.7N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2019 26.4N 36.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2019 28.1N 37.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2019 29.8N 38.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2019 31.7N 40.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 33.4N 42.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 28.4N 66.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.09.2019 28.4N 66.7W WEAK
12UTC 03.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N 78.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.9N 78.4W INTENSE
12UTC 03.09.2019 27.0N 78.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2019 27.8N 78.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.2N 79.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 30.7N 79.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.09.2019 32.2N 79.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2019 33.8N 77.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2019 35.3N 75.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2019 37.5N 71.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2019 40.6N 67.8W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2019 44.2N 63.8W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2019 48.4N 61.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 50.9N 57.6W STRONG WEAKENING RAPIDLY

HURRICANE JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 113.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 03.09.2019 17.5N 113.9W MODERATE
12UTC 03.09.2019 17.8N 115.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2019 18.3N 116.5W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2019 18.9N 117.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 19.7N 119.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2019 20.3N 121.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2019 21.3N 123.6W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2019 21.7N 126.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2019 22.3N 128.7W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2019 22.5N 131.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 22.7N 133.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2019 23.0N 136.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 23.1N 138.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.3N 27.4W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2019 14.3N 27.4W WEAK
12UTC 07.09.2019 15.5N 29.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2019 17.0N 32.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2019 18.1N 35.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 09.09.2019 19.5N 37.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 030400

>

2019-09-03 03:37

WTPN31 PHNC 030400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
030000Z --- NEAR 17.5N 113.6W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 113.6W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.4N 115.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.9N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.4N 117.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.9N 119.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 21.4N 123.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 23.0N 127.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 24.1N 131.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
030400Z POSITION NEAR 17.8N 114.1W.
03SEP19. HURRICANE 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 931 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 031000Z, 031600Z, 032200Z AND 040400Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-03 02:36

WTPZ41 KNHC 030233 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
900 PM MDT MON SEP 02 2019

ENHANCED BD-CURVE INFRARED GOES-17 IMAGERY SHOWS THAT JULIETTE IS
UNDERGOING A RAPID INTENSIFICATION EVOLUTION. AN EARLIER GMI
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALED THAT THE EYEWALL HAS COMPLETED CLOSED OFF,
AND THIS IS ALSO VISIBLE IN THE INFRARED IMAGES AS A -70C BLACK
RING. A BLEND OF THE SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES YIELD 80 KT, BUT SINCE THAT TIME, DUE TO THE MUCH IMPROVED
INNER CORE NOW DEPICTED IN IMAGERY, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS RAISED
TO 100 KT.

RAPID STRENGTHENING SHOULD CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
BEYOND THE SHORT TERM INTENSIFICATION TREND, JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE WITHIN A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE CONSISTING OF LOW
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, A DIFFLUENT UPPER WIND PATTERN, AND WARM OCEANIC
TEMPERATURES WHICH SHOULD ALLOW JULIETTE TO STRENGTHEN A BIT
FURTHER. AFTERWARD, A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST AS
JULIETTE TRAVERSES COOLER WATER AND MOVES INTO A MORE STABLE, DRIER
MARINE LAYER AIR MASS.

JULIETTE'S INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE NORTHWESTWARD, OR
310/9 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY
NORTHWESTWARD, OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITHIN THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
JULIETTE, AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
THERE'S STILL QUITE A BIT OF ACROSS-TRACK MODEL SPREAD BEYOND THE 48
HOUR PERIOD IN RESPONSE TO CONTINUED LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC
DISSIMILARITIES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND IS CLOSE TO THE

>

2019-09-03 02:35

WTPZ41 KNHC 030233
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Enhanced BD-curve infrared GOES-17 imagery shows that Juliette is
undergoing a rapid intensification evolution. An earlier GMI
microwave pass revealed that the eyewall has completed closed off,
and this is also visible in the infrared images as a -70C black
ring. A blend of the subjective and objective satellite intensity
estimates yield 80 kt, but since that time, due to the much improved
inner core now depicted in imagery, the initial intensity is raised
to 100 kt.

Rapid strengthening should continue during the next 12 hours or so.
Beyond the short term intensification trend, Juliette is forecast to
continue to move within a favorable atmosphere consisting of low
deep-layer shear, a diffluent upper wind pattern, and warm oceanic
temperatures which should allow Juliette to strengthen a bit
further. Afterward, a steady weakening trend is forecast as
Juliette traverses cooler water and moves into a more stable, drier
marine layer air mass.

Juliette's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or
310/9 kt. The cyclone should continue moving generally
northwestward, or west-northwestward within the mid-tropospheric
steering flow produced by a subtropical ridge to the north of
Juliette, and an upper-level low just to the west-southwest.
There's still quite a bit of across-track model spread beyond the 48
hour period in response to continued large-scale synoptic
dissimilarities in the strength of the subtropical ridge. The NHC
track forecast is similar to the previous one, and is close to the
TVCE consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 03/0300Z 17.8N 114.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 04/1200Z 19.4N 117.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 05/0000Z 19.9N 119.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 06/0000Z 21.4N 123.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 07/0000Z 23.0N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 08/0000Z 24.1N 131.3W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-03 02:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 030232 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.0W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 70SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.0W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 117.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 119.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.4N 123.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

>

2019-09-03 02:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 030233
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
900 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019

...JULIETTE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY...
...NOW A CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.8N 114.0W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was
located near latitude 17.8 North, longitude 114.0 West. Juliette is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h). The hurricane is
expected to continue at about this forward speed toward the
northwest or west-northwest for the next several days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 115 mph (185 km/h) with higher
gusts. Juliette is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional rapid strengthening is anticipated
tonight and Tuesday. Gradual weakening is expected to commence by
Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles
(205 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 963 mb (28.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-03 02:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 030232
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0300 UTC TUE SEP 03 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.0W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 963 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 100 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 70SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.0W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 113.6W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.1W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 117.8W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.9N 119.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 21.4N 123.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 23.0N 127.8W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 24.1N 131.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 114.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

2019-09-02 21:32

WTPN31 PHNC 022200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 007
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 112.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 112.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.6N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.4N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.9N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.4N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.6N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.5N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.5N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
022200Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 112.8W.
02SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1008 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021200Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z
AND 031600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-02 20:38

WTPZ41 KNHC 022036 RRA
TCDEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
300 PM MDT MON SEP 02 2019

JULIETTE IS CLEARLY ON THE UPSWING. A BANDING EYE IS PRESENT IN
VISIBLE AND IR IMAGERY, AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AROUND
1800 UTC WERE ALL NEAR 65 KT. THE IR PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE
HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE SINCE THEN AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN RAISED TO 70 KT, MAKING MAKING JULIETTE THE 5TH HURRICANE OF
THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON, AND THE FIRST HURRICANE IN THAT
BASIN SINCE JULY 31.

THE HURRICANE HAS QUICKLY STRENGTHENED TODAY AND I SEE NO REASON WHY
THIS WON'T CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. RAPID
INTENSIFICATION STILL SEEMS LIKE A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY, THOUGH THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE CERTAINLY SUGGESTS OTHERWISE. IT IS SURPRISING
THAT NONE OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS JULIETTE STRENGTHENING VERY QUICKLY
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO DESPITE THE APPARENT FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THE HURRICANE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AND THE CURRENT
INTENSIFICATION TREND. THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS ABOVE ALL OF THE
INTENSITY MODELS FOR THE FIRST 48 HOURS, GIVEN THE IMPRESSIVE
STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE. BEYOND THAT TIME, THE FORECAST IS AGAIN
CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SHOWS JULIETTE WEAKENING
QUICKLY AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND INTO A DRY ENVIRONMENT.

JULIETTE HAS SLOWED DOWN AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/10 KT.
THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST REASONING, AND JULIETTE IS STILL
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE STEERED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY AN EXTENSIVE
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE.
THE MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST OF JULIETTE

>

2019-09-02 20:38

WTPZ31 KNHC 022035
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
HURRICANE JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
300 PM MDT MON SEP 02 2019

...JULIETTE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...THE FIFTH ONE OF THE EAST PACIFIC SEASON...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.2N 113.3W
ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H). THE HURRICANE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THIS FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR
WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN BY THURSDAY.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES (30 KM) FROM THE
CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES
(205 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB (29.15 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-02 20:37

WTPZ41 KNHC 022036
TCDEP1

Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
300 PM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Juliette is clearly on the upswing. A banding eye is present in
visible and IR imagery, and satellite intensity estimates around
1800 UTC were all near 65 kt. The IR presentation of the cyclone
has continued to improve since then and the initial intensity has
been raised to 70 kt, making making Juliette the 5th hurricane of
the eastern North Pacific season, and the first hurricane in that
basin since July 31.

The hurricane has quickly strengthened today and I see no reason why
this won't continue for the next 12 to 24 hours. Rapid
intensification still seems like a distinct possibility, though the
intensity guidance certainly suggests otherwise. It is surprising
that none of the guidance shows Juliette strengthening very quickly
during the next day or two despite the apparent favorable
environment the hurricane is embedded within and the current
intensification trend. The NHC forecast remains above all of the
intensity models for the first 48 hours, given the impressive
structure of the hurricane. Beyond that time, the forecast is again
close to the multi-model consensus and shows Juliette weakening
quickly as it moves over cooler SSTs and into a dry environment.

Juliette has slowed down and the initial motion is now 305/10 kt.
There is no change in the forecast reasoning, and Juliette is still
generally expected to be steered west-northwestward by an extensive
deep-layer ridge located to the north and northeast of the cyclone.
The models remain in very good agreement on the forecast of Juliette
for the first 3 or 4 days of the forecast, and confidence remains
high through that period. The global models then vary on the
strength of the ridge and the model spread is notably higher by the
end of the forecast. For now, the NHC forecast continues to split
the various models and closely follows the multi-model consensus at
all times.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/2100Z 17.2N 113.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 03/1800Z 18.6N 115.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/0600Z 19.1N 117.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 05/1800Z 21.1N 122.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 06/1800Z 22.5N 127.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 07/1800Z 24.0N 131.0W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-02 20:36

WTPZ21 KNHC 022034 RRA
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
2100 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 113.3W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 70SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 113.3W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 115.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.1N 117.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 122.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

>

2019-09-02 20:35

WTPZ21 KNHC 022034
TCMEP1

HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
2100 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 113.3W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 70SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 113.3W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 112.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.6N 115.9W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.1N 117.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 21.1N 122.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 127.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 24.0N 131.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 113.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2019-09-02 16:03

WTNT82 EGRR 021600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 02.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.5N 64.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2019 0 27.5N 64.6W 1014 23
0000UTC 03.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 93.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2019 0 21.8N 93.0W 1009 19
0000UTC 03.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 28.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2019 0 15.9N 28.4W 1009 20
0000UTC 03.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N 78.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2019 0 26.7N 78.3W 963 67
0000UTC 03.09.2019 12 26.9N 78.5W 958 72
1200UTC 03.09.2019 24 27.0N 78.7W 955 71
0000UTC 04.09.2019 36 27.9N 79.0W 948 79
1200UTC 04.09.2019 48 29.2N 79.9W 931 88
0000UTC 05.09.2019 60 30.5N 79.9W 937 88
1200UTC 05.09.2019 72 31.8N 79.5W 927 90
0000UTC 06.09.2019 84 33.5N 78.0W 923 88
1200UTC 06.09.2019 96 35.0N 76.4W 942 76
0000UTC 07.09.2019 108 36.4N 73.5W 949 72
1200UTC 07.09.2019 120 38.6N 69.6W 945 71
0000UTC 08.09.2019 132 42.3N 64.4W 941 74
1200UTC 08.09.2019 144 48.9N 59.7W 950 57

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 112.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 02.09.2019 0 16.3N 112.1W 996 41
0000UTC 03.09.2019 12 17.2N 114.2W 992 43
1200UTC 03.09.2019 24 17.7N 115.6W 988 45
0000UTC 04.09.2019 36 18.1N 117.0W 984 55
1200UTC 04.09.2019 48 18.6N 118.4W 976 59
0000UTC 05.09.2019 60 19.4N 120.3W 965 67
1200UTC 05.09.2019 72 19.8N 122.3W 970 66
0000UTC 06.09.2019 84 20.5N 124.4W 976 59
1200UTC 06.09.2019 96 21.3N 127.1W 982 54
0000UTC 07.09.2019 108 22.4N 129.8W 990 51
1200UTC 07.09.2019 120 23.5N 132.2W 998 43
0000UTC 08.09.2019 132 24.2N 133.9W 1004 39
1200UTC 08.09.2019 144 24.7N 135.7W 1009 31

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 14.6N 25.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2019 108 15.0N 27.0W 1009 27
1200UTC 07.09.2019 120 16.2N 29.1W 1008 29
0000UTC 08.09.2019 132 17.5N 31.4W 1009 27
1200UTC 08.09.2019 144 18.9N 34.0W 1009 29


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021600

>

2019-09-02 16:01

WTNT80 EGRR 021600

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 02.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 92L ANALYSED POSITION : 27.5N 64.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL922019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2019 27.5N 64.6W WEAK
00UTC 03.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 21.8N 93.0W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2019 21.8N 93.0W WEAK
00UTC 03.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.9N 28.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2019 15.9N 28.4W WEAK
00UTC 03.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.7N 78.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2019 26.7N 78.3W STRONG
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.9N 78.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2019 27.0N 78.7W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2019 27.9N 79.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.2N 79.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 30.5N 79.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2019 31.8N 79.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2019 33.5N 78.0W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2019 35.0N 76.4W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 07.09.2019 36.4N 73.5W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2019 38.6N 69.6W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2019 42.3N 64.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2019 48.9N 59.7W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 16.3N 112.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 02.09.2019 16.3N 112.1W MODERATE
00UTC 03.09.2019 17.2N 114.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2019 17.7N 115.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2019 18.1N 117.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 18.6N 118.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 19.4N 120.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2019 19.8N 122.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2019 20.5N 124.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2019 21.3N 127.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2019 22.4N 129.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2019 23.5N 132.2W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 24.2N 133.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 08.09.2019 24.7N 135.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 14.6N 25.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2019 15.0N 27.0W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 07.09.2019 16.2N 29.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2019 17.5N 31.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 08.09.2019 18.9N 34.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 021600

>

2019-09-02 15:00

WTPN31 PHNC 021600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 112.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 112.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.6N 114.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.4N 115.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.9N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.4N 118.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.6N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.5N 126.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 23.5N 130.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021600Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 112.8W.
02SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1008 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 021200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 022200Z, 030400Z, 031000Z
AND 031600Z.
//
NNNN

>

2019-09-02 14:44

WTPZ41 KNHC 021441 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
900 AM MDT MON SEP 02 2019

JULIETTE IS NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH. AN INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION THAT WAS NOTED WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY HAS PERSISTED,
AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS DEVELOPED A
WELL-DEFINED INNER-CORE. GIVEN THE OBSERVED INCREASE IN JULIETTE'S
ORGANIZATION, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KT,
WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT AND SATCON FIXES.

JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO QUICKLY STRENGTHEN TODAY, AND RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS A REAL POSSIBILITY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO
GIVEN THE SEEMINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND THE PRESENCE OF AN
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL EYE IN RECENT MICROWAVE DATA. BEYOND 48 H, THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER SSTS AND
ENCOUNTERS A DRIER SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FROM 72 H THROUGH THE
END OF THE PERIOD, BUT THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW QUICKLY JULIETTE WILL WEAKEN SINCE IT WILL BE MOVING ALONG
A SHARP SST GRADIENT. A TRACK FARTHER NORTH THAN THE NHC FORECAST
WOULD LIKELY CAUSE JULIETTE TO WEAKEN FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED, WHILE
A FARTHER SOUTH TRACK COULD ALLOW IT TO MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH FOR
LONGER.

VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF JULIETTE SHOULD KEEP IT ON A GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD HEADING FOR THE NEXT 3 OR 4 DAYS
DAYS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS PARTICULARLY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED THROUGH
THAT PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST IS HIGH. THE RIDGE COULD

>

2019-09-02 14:44

WTPZ31 KNHC 021441
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
900 AM MDT MON SEP 02 2019

...JULIETTE WILL LIKELY BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 112.6W
ABOUT 465 MI...745 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.6 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED, AND JULIETTE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY, WITH FURTHER STRENGTHENING
ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES (240 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-02 14:42

WTPZ41 KNHC 021441
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
900 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019

Juliette is nearing hurricane strength. An increase in deep
convection that was noted with the previous advisory has persisted,
and recent microwave data shows that the cyclone has developed a
well-defined inner-core. Given the observed increase in Juliette's
organization, the initial intensity has been increased to 60 kt,
which is supported by the latest UW-CIMSS ADT and SATCON fixes.

Juliette is forecast to quickly strengthen today, and rapid
intensification is a real possibility during the next 24 hours or so
given the seemingly favorable environment and the presence of an
low- to mid-level eye in recent microwave data. Beyond 48 h, the
cyclone should begin to weaken as it moves over cooler SSTs and
encounters a drier surrounding environment. The NHC intensity
forecast is near the multi-model consensus from 72 h through the
end of the period, but there is a fair amount of uncertainty as to
how quickly Juliette will weaken since it will be moving along
a sharp SST gradient. A track farther north than the NHC forecast
would likely cause Juliette to weaken faster than anticipated, while
a farther south track could allow it to maintain its strength for
longer.

Very little change was made to the track forecast. A deep-layer
ridge to the northeast of Juliette should keep it on a generally
west-northwestward to northwestward heading for the next 3 or 4 days
days. The track guidance is particularly tightly clustered through
that period and confidence in the forecast is high. The ridge could
amplify by day 5 and cause Juliette to turn westward, as shown most
notably by the ECMWF, though confidence is a little lower at that
time. The NHC forecast is very near TVCE and HCCA at all times and
lies near the middle of the guidance envelope.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 16.7N 112.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 17.6N 114.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.8W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 19.4N 118.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 20.6N 121.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 22.5N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 23.5N 130.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-02 14:42

WTPZ21 KNHC 021440 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1500 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.6W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 70SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.6W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.6N 114.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 118.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.6N 121.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-02 14:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 021440
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1500 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.6W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT.......130NE 70SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 112.6W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 112.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.6N 114.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.4N 115.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.9N 116.8W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.4N 118.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 15SW 25NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 20.6N 121.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 126.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.5N 130.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 112.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2019-09-02 09:16

WTPN31 PHNC 021000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 111.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 111.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.0N 113.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.9N 114.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.5N 116.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 19.0N 117.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.0N 121.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.5N 125.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 23.0N 129.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
021000Z POSITION NEAR 16.3N 111.9W.
02SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1056 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021600Z, 022200Z, 030400Z AND 031000Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-02 08:43

WTPZ41 KNHC 020840 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
300 AM MDT MON SEP 02 2019

AFTER STRUGGLING TO STRENGTHEN DURING THE PREVIOUS 12-H PERIOD DUE
TO THE ENTRAINMENT OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR, A STRONG BURST OF DEEP
CONVECTION, ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND CLOUD TOPS NEAR
-90C, HAS DEVELOPED NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. A NEARLY CIRCULAR CDO FEATURE HAS ALSO FORMED OVER THE
CENTER, AND THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED AND EXPANDED IN ALL
QUADRANTS. DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, SSMI/S AND AMSU MICROWAVE
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT A PRIMITIVE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAD
FORMED, AND RECENT SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND
UW-CIMSS SATCON WERE T3.5/55 KT AND 57 KT, RESPECTIVELY. BASED ON
THESE DATA, THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATE IS 300/12 KT. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR RATIONALE. A DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE NORTH OF JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE
LITTLE, DRIVING JULIETTE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
THROUGHOUT THE 5-DAY PERIOD. AS A RESULT, THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST
IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK, AND LIES DOWN THE
MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED MODEL GUIDANCE.

NOW THAT A NEARLY COMPLETE MID-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS FORMED, RAPID
INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS DUE TO
JULIETTE BEING EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS CONSISTING OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR 5 KT, AN
UNHINDERED OUTFLOW PATTERN, AND A MOIST MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, ALONG

>

2019-09-02 08:42

WTPZ41 KNHC 020840
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
300 AM MDT Mon Sep 02 2019

After struggling to strengthen during the previous 12-h period due
to the entrainment of mid-level dry air, a strong burst of deep
convection, accompanied by frequent lightning and cloud tops near
-90C, has developed near the well-defined low-level circulation
center. A nearly circular CDO feature has also formed over the
center, and the upper-level outflow has improved and expanded in all
quadrants. During the past few hours, SSMI/S and AMSU microwave
satellite data indicate that a primitive mid-level eye feature had
formed, and recent satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and
UW-CIMSS SATCON were T3.5/55 kt and 57 kt, respectively. Based on
these data, the initial intensity has been increased to 55 kt.

The initial motion is estimate is 300/12 kt. There is no significant
change to the previous forecast track or rationale. A deep-layer
ridge anchored to the north of Juliette is expected to change
little, driving Juliette on a general west-northwestward track
throughout the 5-day period. As a result, the new NHC track forecast
is very similar to the previous advisory track, and lies down the
middle of the tightly clustered model guidance.

Now that a nearly complete mid-level eye feature has formed, rapid
intensification is expected to occur during the next 24 hours due to
Juliette being embedded within very favorable environmental
conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear near 5 kt, an
unhindered outflow pattern, and a moist mid-level environment, along
with traversing warm sea-surface temperatures (SST) of 28-29 deg C.
Thereafter, a slower rate of strengthening is expected through 36-48
hours due to the cyclone moving over marginal SSTs. Steady weakening
is forecast on days 3-5 when Juliette will be moving over sub-26C
SSTs despite low shear conditions. The new official intensity
forecast is a little above all of the available intensity guidance,
and shows the same peak intensity as the previous advisory, except
that the time of occurrence has been moved forward by 24 hours.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 16.2N 111.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 19.0N 117.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 21.5N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-02 08:42

WTPZ31 KNHC 020839
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
300 AM MDT MON SEP 02 2019

...JULIETTE STRENGTHENS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.2N 111.8W
ABOUT 480 MI...770 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.8 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS, AND JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER
TODAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES (240 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-02 08:42

WTPZ21 KNHC 020839 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 117.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-02 08:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 020839
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0900 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.8W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......130NE 130SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 111.8W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 111.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.9W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.4W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.0N 117.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 60SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.5N 125.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 23.0N 129.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 111.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-02 04:08

WTPN31 PHNC 020400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
020000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 110.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 110.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.3N 112.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.4N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.1N 115.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 18.6N 117.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 19.5N 120.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 20.8N 124.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 22.4N 128.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
020400Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 110.8W.
02SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1123 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 021000Z, 021600Z, 022200Z AND 030400Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-02 04:00

WTNT82 EGRR 020359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 02.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 26.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2019 0 15.8N 26.4W 1009 21
1200UTC 02.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 77.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2019 0 26.6N 77.6W 971 69
1200UTC 02.09.2019 12 26.7N 78.3W 968 64
0000UTC 03.09.2019 24 26.8N 78.6W 962 66
1200UTC 03.09.2019 36 27.2N 78.8W 956 70
0000UTC 04.09.2019 48 28.3N 79.4W 946 84
1200UTC 04.09.2019 60 29.7N 80.1W 929 90
0000UTC 05.09.2019 72 30.8N 80.0W 938 85
1200UTC 05.09.2019 84 32.2N 79.0W 929 88
0000UTC 06.09.2019 96 34.0N 77.4W 932 81
1200UTC 06.09.2019 108 35.7N 75.5W 945 69
0000UTC 07.09.2019 120 37.5N 72.2W 947 68
1200UTC 07.09.2019 132 40.5N 68.4W 944 70
0000UTC 08.09.2019 144 45.9N 62.6W 950 64

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 110.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 02.09.2019 0 15.0N 110.4W 1000 36
1200UTC 02.09.2019 12 16.0N 112.0W 996 40
0000UTC 03.09.2019 24 16.8N 113.9W 991 42
1200UTC 03.09.2019 36 17.2N 115.3W 987 49
0000UTC 04.09.2019 48 17.8N 116.5W 982 57
1200UTC 04.09.2019 60 18.3N 117.9W 974 61
0000UTC 05.09.2019 72 18.9N 120.2W 959 71
1200UTC 05.09.2019 84 19.2N 122.2W 967 67
0000UTC 06.09.2019 96 19.8N 124.5W 973 64
1200UTC 06.09.2019 108 20.3N 127.0W 979 56
0000UTC 07.09.2019 120 21.3N 129.8W 985 54
1200UTC 07.09.2019 132 22.3N 132.4W 991 48
0000UTC 08.09.2019 144 23.3N 134.3W 996 49

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 17.2N 30.6W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 03.09.2019 36 17.2N 30.6W 1009 25
0000UTC 04.09.2019 48 18.1N 30.5W 1010 27
1200UTC 04.09.2019 60 19.8N 30.3W 1009 33
0000UTC 05.09.2019 72 20.4N 30.7W 1009 32
1200UTC 05.09.2019 84 21.7N 31.1W 1010 27
0000UTC 06.09.2019 96 22.7N 32.6W 1012 26
1200UTC 06.09.2019 108 24.1N 34.7W 1012 24
0000UTC 07.09.2019 120 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.7N 24.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 07.09.2019 120 16.4N 26.1W 1009 24
1200UTC 07.09.2019 132 17.5N 28.7W 1009 26
0000UTC 08.09.2019 144 19.2N 31.4W 1010 28

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 11.4N 147.0W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 07.09.2019 132 11.4N 147.0W 1007 25
0000UTC 08.09.2019 144 11.7N 149.5W 1005 31


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020359

>

2019-09-02 04:00

WTNT80 EGRR 020359

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 26.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.09.2019 15.8N 26.4W WEAK
12UTC 02.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.6N 77.6W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.6N 77.6W STRONG
12UTC 02.09.2019 26.7N 78.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.8N 78.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2019 27.2N 78.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2019 28.3N 79.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.7N 80.1W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 30.8N 80.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2019 32.2N 79.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2019 34.0N 77.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2019 35.7N 75.5W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY
00UTC 07.09.2019 37.5N 72.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2019 40.5N 68.4W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2019 45.9N 62.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 110.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 02.09.2019 15.0N 110.4W WEAK
12UTC 02.09.2019 16.0N 112.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 03.09.2019 16.8N 113.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2019 17.2N 115.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2019 17.8N 116.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 18.3N 117.9W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 18.9N 120.2W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 05.09.2019 19.2N 122.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2019 19.8N 124.5W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2019 20.3N 127.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2019 21.3N 129.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2019 22.3N 132.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 08.09.2019 23.3N 134.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 17.2N 30.6W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 03.09.2019 17.2N 30.6W WEAK
00UTC 04.09.2019 18.1N 30.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 04.09.2019 19.8N 30.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 05.09.2019 20.4N 30.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 05.09.2019 21.7N 31.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 22.7N 32.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 06.09.2019 24.1N 34.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 07.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 114 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+114 : 15.7N 24.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 07.09.2019 16.4N 26.1W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY
12UTC 07.09.2019 17.5N 28.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 08.09.2019 19.2N 31.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 11.4N 147.0W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 07.09.2019 11.4N 147.0W WEAK
00UTC 08.09.2019 11.7N 149.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 020358

>

2019-09-02 02:44

WTPZ41 KNHC 020241 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 01 2019

ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN SOME NEW DEEP BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR THE
CENTER OF CIRCULATION THIS EVENING, THE BANDING FEATURES STILL
REMAIN QUITE FRAGMENTED. THE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES, AS WELL AS A RECENT UW-CIMSS SATCON ANALYSIS, SUPPORT
HOLDING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AT A NEAR CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, INDICATIVE OF LOW DEEP-LAYER SHEAR, A
MOIST MID-LEVEL ATMOSPHERE, AND WARM OCEANIC SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. AFTER 72 HOURS, JULIETTE WILL BE MOVING OVER
DECREASING SSTS, AND INTO A HIGH STATICALLY STABLE MARINE LAYER AIR
MASS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE GRADUAL WEAKENING. THE NHC FORECAST
FOLLOWS SUIT AND IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE NOAA HFIP HCCA AND THE
IVCN MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR
300/11 KT WITHIN THE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW PRODUCED BY A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC FROM
THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME REDUCTION
IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME, THE
CROSS-TRACK SPREAD OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO
LARGE-SCALE SYNOPTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE ECMWF AND THE CANADIAN STILL INDICATE THE CYCLONE
TURNING WESTWARD DUE TO STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE,
WHILE THE GFS, HWRF, AND THE UKMET REFLECT LESS RIDGING, AND

>

2019-09-02 02:43

WTPZ41 KNHC 020241
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
900 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Although there has been some new deep bursts of convection near the
center of circulation this evening, the banding features still
remain quite fragmented. The subjective Dvorak intensity
estimates, as well as a recent UW-CIMSS SATCON analysis, support
holding the initial intensity at 50 kt for this advisory.

Juliette is expected to intensify at a near climatological rate
during the next 48 hours, indicative of low deep-layer shear, a
moist mid-level atmosphere, and warm oceanic sea surface
temperatures. After 72 hours, Juliette will be moving over
decreasing SSTs, and into a high statically stable marine layer air
mass which should induce gradual weakening. The NHC forecast
follows suit and is based on a blend of the NOAA HFIP HCCA and the
IVCN multi-model intensity guidance.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or
300/11 kt within the east-southeasterly steering flow produced by a
mid-tropospheric ridge extending over the northeastern Pacific from
the southwestern United States. The cyclone should continue moving
west-northwestward through the forecast period with some reduction
in forward speed during the next 48 hours. Beyond that time, the
cross-track spread of the model guidance increases in response to
large-scale synoptic differences in the strength of the subtropical
ridge. The ECMWF and the Canadian still indicate the cyclone
turning westward due to strengthening of the subtropical ridge,
while the GFS, HWRF, and the UKMET reflect less ridging, and
induce a more northwestward track. The new official forecast is
nudged south of the previous forecast and lies between the TVCE
consensus and the ECMWF global.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0300Z 15.4N 110.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/1200Z 16.3N 112.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 04/0000Z 18.6N 117.1W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 05/0000Z 19.5N 120.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 06/0000Z 20.8N 124.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 07/0000Z 22.4N 128.2W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-09-02 02:43

WTPZ31 KNHC 020240
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
900 PM MDT SUN SEP 01 2019

...JULIETTE EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 110.6W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 520 MI...835 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.6 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO
BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.


TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES (240 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-09-02 02:42

WTPZ21 KNHC 020240 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 110.6W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 110.6W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.3N 112.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.6N 117.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.5N 120.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-02 02:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 020240
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0300 UTC MON SEP 02 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 110.6W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE 45SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 110.6W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 110.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.3N 112.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.7W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 18.6N 117.1W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 19.5N 120.1W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 20.8N 124.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 22.4N 128.2W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 110.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS



>

2019-09-01 21:28

WTPN31 PHNC 012200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 109.1W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 109.1W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.9N 111.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 17.0N 113.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.9N 114.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 18.5N 116.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 19.5N 119.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 21.0N 122.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 23.0N 127.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
012200Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 109.8W.
01SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1176 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 020400Z, 021000Z, 021600Z AND
022200Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-01 20:43

WTPZ41 KNHC 012041 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 01 2019

JULIETTE'S PRESENTATION IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS CONTINUED
TO IMPROVE, WITH HINTS OF A BANDING EYE NOW PRESENT. THAT SAID,
THE CONVECTION IN THE CYCLONE'S BANDS IS NOT THAT DEEP, AND RECENT
ASCAT DATA STILL SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF 50 KT.

NO CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE HURRICANE IS MOVING
NORTHWEST AT 11 KT, STEERED PRIMARILY BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US. ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT JULIETTE
WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS,
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. AFTER THAT, DIFFERENCES IN
THE FORECASTED STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE RESULT IN A LARGER MODEL
SPREAD. THE ECMWF SHOWS JULIETTE TURNING NEARLY WESTWARD DUE TO AN
AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE, WHILE THE GFS FORECASTS THAT THE RIDGE
WILL WEAKEN, CAUSING JULIETTE TO MOVE FARTHER NORTH. THE NHC
FORECAST IS NEARLY DIRECTLY BETWEEN THOSE TWO MODELS AND LIES VERY
CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT ALL FORECAST HOURS, BUT ITS WORTH
NOTING THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY LOW AT 96 H
AND BEYOND.

LOW WIND SHEAR, A WARM UNDERLYING OCEAN, AND SUFFICIENT
ENVIRONMENTAL MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW JULIETTE TO STRENGTHEN FOR THE
NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE LARGEST UNCERTAINTY IS THE RATE AT WHICH THE
TROPICAL STORM WILL STRENGTHEN, AND THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION
GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS BULLISH AS IT WAS 6 HOURS AGO.
SUBSEQUENTLY, NO MAJOR CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST,
AND JULIETTE IS STILL EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY. BY

>

2019-09-01 20:42

WTPZ41 KNHC 012041
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
300 PM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Juliette's presentation in visible satellite imagery has continued
to improve, with hints of a banding eye now present. That said,
the convection in the cyclone's bands is not that deep, and recent
ASCAT data still supports an intensity of 50 kt.

No change was made to the track forecast. The hurricane is moving
northwest at 11 kt, steered primarily by a mid-level ridge centered
over the southwestern US. All of the guidance shows that Juliette
will move west-northwestward to northwestward for the next 3 days,
with a slight decrease in forward speed. After that, differences in
the forecasted strength of the ridge result in a larger model
spread. The ECMWF shows Juliette turning nearly westward due to an
amplification of the ridge, while the GFS forecasts that the ridge
will weaken, causing Juliette to move farther north. The NHC
forecast is nearly directly between those two models and lies very
close to the model consensus at all forecast hours, but its worth
noting that confidence in the track forecast is fairly low at 96 h
and beyond.

Low wind shear, a warm underlying ocean, and sufficient
environmental moisture should allow Juliette to strengthen for the
next 2-3 days. The largest uncertainty is the rate at which the
tropical storm will strengthen, and the rapid intensification
guidance is not quite as bullish as it was 6 hours ago.
Subsequently, no major change was made to the intensity forecast,
and Juliette is still expected to become a hurricane on Monday. By
the end of the forecast, the cyclone will likely begin moving over
cooler waters and through a far more stable environment. This should
cause Juliette to weaken, particularly if it moves farther north
than the NHC official forecast, as shown by the GFS. If Juliette
takes a farther south track, like that of the ECMWF, it could
maintain its intensity longer than currently forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/2100Z 14.9N 109.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0600Z 15.9N 111.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.8W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 05/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/1800Z 23.0N 127.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-09-01 20:42

WTPZ31 KNHC 012040
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
300 PM MDT SUN SEP 01 2019

...JULIETTE FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 109.7W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 555 MI...890 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.7 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST, AND JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A
HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES (240 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 998 MB (29.47 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-09-01 20:42

WTPZ21 KNHC 012039 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 109.7W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 109.7W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 109.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.9N 111.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-01 20:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 012039
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 109.7W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 130SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 109.7W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 109.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.9N 111.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 17.0N 113.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.9N 114.8W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.5N 116.3W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N 119.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 21.0N 122.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 23.0N 127.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 109.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY



>

2019-09-01 16:00

WTNT82 EGRR 011559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 01.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 24.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2019 0 15.6N 24.3W 1010 20
0000UTC 02.09.2019 12 CEASED TRACKING

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 76.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2019 0 26.4N 76.2W 987 56
0000UTC 02.09.2019 12 26.5N 77.4W 981 60
1200UTC 02.09.2019 24 26.7N 78.1W 972 66
0000UTC 03.09.2019 36 26.6N 78.4W 960 72
1200UTC 03.09.2019 48 26.7N 78.5W 953 70
0000UTC 04.09.2019 60 27.8N 78.8W 946 78
1200UTC 04.09.2019 72 29.0N 79.5W 927 93
0000UTC 05.09.2019 84 30.3N 79.4W 938 84
1200UTC 05.09.2019 96 32.0N 78.3W 934 81
0000UTC 06.09.2019 108 34.1N 76.6W 924 91
1200UTC 06.09.2019 120 35.8N 73.9W 933 76
0000UTC 07.09.2019 132 38.6N 69.2W 932 78
1200UTC 07.09.2019 144 43.1N 63.9W 944 68

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 108.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.09.2019 0 13.7N 108.2W 1004 31
0000UTC 02.09.2019 12 14.7N 110.3W 1001 31
1200UTC 02.09.2019 24 15.8N 112.0W 997 36
0000UTC 03.09.2019 36 16.8N 113.9W 993 40
1200UTC 03.09.2019 48 17.3N 115.5W 989 48
0000UTC 04.09.2019 60 17.9N 117.0W 984 58
1200UTC 04.09.2019 72 18.2N 118.5W 974 60
0000UTC 05.09.2019 84 18.7N 120.3W 964 66
1200UTC 05.09.2019 96 19.4N 122.3W 965 65
0000UTC 06.09.2019 108 20.3N 124.7W 969 65
1200UTC 06.09.2019 120 21.3N 127.3W 979 54
0000UTC 07.09.2019 132 22.8N 129.5W 991 46
1200UTC 07.09.2019 144 24.5N 130.5W 998 41

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.2N 24.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2019 120 14.2N 24.2W 1010 23
0000UTC 07.09.2019 132 15.3N 27.4W 1009 29
1200UTC 07.09.2019 144 16.9N 29.8W 1009 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011559

>

2019-09-01 16:00

WTNT80 EGRR 011559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.09.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 24.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2019 15.6N 24.3W WEAK
00UTC 02.09.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

HURRICANE DORIAN ANALYSED POSITION : 26.4N 76.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2019 26.4N 76.2W MODERATE
00UTC 02.09.2019 26.5N 77.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 02.09.2019 26.7N 78.1W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 26.6N 78.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 03.09.2019 26.7N 78.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 04.09.2019 27.8N 78.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 29.0N 79.5W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 30.3N 79.4W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2019 32.0N 78.3W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 06.09.2019 34.1N 76.6W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2019 35.8N 73.9W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2019 38.6N 69.2W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2019 43.1N 63.9W INTENSE WEAKENING RAPIDLY

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ANALYSED POSITION : 13.7N 108.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 01.09.2019 13.7N 108.2W WEAK
00UTC 02.09.2019 14.7N 110.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 02.09.2019 15.8N 112.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 03.09.2019 16.8N 113.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 03.09.2019 17.3N 115.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 04.09.2019 17.9N 117.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 04.09.2019 18.2N 118.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 05.09.2019 18.7N 120.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 05.09.2019 19.4N 122.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 06.09.2019 20.3N 124.7W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 06.09.2019 21.3N 127.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 07.09.2019 22.8N 129.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 07.09.2019 24.5N 130.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.2N 24.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 06.09.2019 14.2N 24.2W WEAK
00UTC 07.09.2019 15.3N 27.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 07.09.2019 16.9N 29.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 011559

>

2019-09-01 15:06

WTPN31 PHNC 011600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011200Z --- NEAR 13.9N 108.2W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 108.2W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 15.4N 110.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 16.5N 112.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 17.4N 114.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 18.1N 115.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 19.2N 118.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 20.5N 121.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 22.5N 125.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
011600Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 108.9W.
01SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1229 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 011200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012200Z, 020400Z, 021000Z AND
021600Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-09-01 14:44

WTPZ41 KNHC 011441 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
900 AM MDT SUN SEP 01 2019

JULIETTE HAS BEEN QUICKLY ORGANIZING THIS MORNING. SATELLITE AND
MICROWAVE DATA INDICATE THAT A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS
FORMED, WITH A LARGE BAND ON THE EAST SIDE. THE CURRENT WIND
SPEED IS SET TO 50 KT, IN LINE WITH THE RECENT CIMSS OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATE SINCE THE SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES ARE STILL CATCHING
UP WITH THIS STORM.

THERE'S BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE INTENSITY AND SIZE
FORECASTS OF JULIETTE THIS MORNING, WITH GUIDANCE NOW SHOWING A
STRONGER AND LARGER HURRICANE IN ABOUT A DAY. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE RECENT DEVELOPMENT OF THE EARLY STAGES OF AN INNER CORE,
WHICH WOULD ALLOW JULIETTE TO CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A FAST PACE.
INDEED, RAPID INTENSIFICATION IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY DUE TO AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LOW SHEAR AND VERY WARM WATER, AND THE VARIOUS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION INDICES ARE ALL SHOWING THIS CHANCE. THUS THE
FORECAST IS RAISED FROM THE LAST ONE, SIMILAR TO THE CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE, AND FURTHER UPWARD ADJUSTMENTS MIGHT BE
REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.

FIXES SHOW THAT THE STORM IS MOVING FASTER TO THE NORTHWEST THIS
MORNING. A RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF JULIETTE SHOULD STEER THE
STORM ON THIS GENERAL PATH FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, FOLLOWED BY A
SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT THE END. MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, AND THE NEW FORECAST IS
BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE, CLOSE TO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC MODEL CONSENSUS TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

>

2019-09-01 14:42

WTPZ41 KNHC 011441
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
900 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Juliette has been quickly organizing this morning. Satellite and
microwave data indicate that a small central dense overcast has
formed, with a large band on the east side. The current wind
speed is set to 50 kt, in line with the recent CIMSS objective
Dvorak estimate since the subjective estimates are still catching
up with this storm.

There's been a significant change to the intensity and size
forecasts of Juliette this morning, with guidance now showing a
stronger and larger hurricane in about a day. This is consistent
with the recent development of the early stages of an inner core,
which would allow Juliette to continue to intensify at a fast pace.
Indeed, rapid intensification is a distinct possibility due to an
environment of low shear and very warm water, and the various rapid
intensification indices are all showing this chance. Thus the
forecast is raised from the last one, similar to the corrected
consensus guidance, and further upward adjustments might be
required this afternoon.

Fixes show that the storm is moving faster to the northwest this
morning. A ridge to the northeast of Juliette should steer the
storm on this general path for the next several days, followed by a
slight turn toward the west-northwest at the end. Model guidance is
in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the new forecast is
basically an update of the previous one, close to the eastern
Pacific model consensus TVCE.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/1500Z 14.3N 108.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 15.3N 110.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 16.5N 112.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 19.2N 118.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 20.5N 121.8W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

>

2019-09-01 14:42

WTPZ31 KNHC 011440
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
900 AM MDT SUN SEP 01 2019

...JULIETTE STRENGTHENING QUICKLY WELL SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.3N 108.8W
ABOUT 440 MI...710 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 600 MI...965 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.8 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-
NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW
AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ON TUESDAY. WEAKENING COULD BEGIN ON
WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB (29.53 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 300 PM MDT.

..
FORECASTER BLAKE

>

2019-09-01 14:42

WTPZ21 KNHC 011440 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 108.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 108.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 108.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.3N 110.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.2N 118.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

>

2019-09-01 14:41

WTPZ21 KNHC 011440
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
1500 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 108.8W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 108.8W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 108.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 15.3N 110.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.5N 112.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 70SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 17.4N 114.1W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 18.1N 115.6W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 35SE 35SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 80SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.2N 118.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 80SW 110NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 20.5N 121.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 22.5N 125.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 108.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE



>

2019-09-01 09:40

WTPN31 PHNC 011000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/311421ZAUG2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE) WARNING NR 001
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 11E
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
010600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 107.4W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 107.4W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 14.5N 109.4W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 15.7N 111.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
021800Z --- 16.7N 113.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 17.6N 115.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 18.9N 118.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.0N 121.0W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 21.8N 124.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
011000Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 108.1W.
01SEP19. TROPICAL STORM 11E (JULIETTE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
1296 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 011600Z, 012200Z, 020400Z AND 021000Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 311430).//
NNNN

>

2019-09-01 08:34

WTPZ41 KNHC 010832 RRA
TCDEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
300 AM MDT SUN SEP 01 2019

EARLIER SCATTEROMETER SURFACE WIND DATA AROUND 0400 UTC INDICATE
THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED ABOUT 400 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO, MEXICO, HAD BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WERE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. MORE SPECIFICALLY, AN ASCAT-A PASS REVEALED PEAK SURFACE
WINDS OF 42 KT, WHICH COULD HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY RAIN INFLATED, AND AN
ASCAT-C PASS SHOWED PEAK WINDS OF 39 KT. BASED ON A BLEND OF
THESE WIND DATA, THE LOW HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A 40-KT TROPICAL
STORM, THE TENTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2019 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC
HURRICANE SEASON.

JULIETTE'S INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AN UNCERTAIN 310/06 KT. THE
ADVISORY POSITION IS AN AVERAGE OF THE LOCATIONS OF THE MID- AND
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTERS, IN ANTICIPATION OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER NOTED IN THE ASCAT-C WIND DATA DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE
RECENT BURSTS OF CENTRAL DEEP CONVECTION. OTHERWISE, THE TRACK
FORECAST IS PRETTY STRAIGHT-FORWARD WITH THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON MAINTAINING THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF
JULIETTE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS STEERING PATTERN
SHOULD RESULT IN THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD TODAY,
FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED ON MONDAY, WITH A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION CONTINUING
THROUGH 120 HOURS. THE NHC FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE TIGHTLY
PACKED CONSENSUS MODELS HCCA AND TVCE.

JULIETTE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR

>

2019-09-01 08:34

WTPZ31 KNHC 010831
TCPEP1

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
300 AM MDT SUN SEP 01 2019

...NEW TROPICAL STORM FORMS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 107.6W
ABOUT 455 MI...735 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 685 MI...1105 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST. JULIETTE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED BY
MONDAY AND CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND JULIETTE IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE ON MONDAY.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER STEWART

>

2019-09-01 08:34

WTPZ21 KNHC 010831 RRA
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 107.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.5N 109.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.7N 111.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.7N 113.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.6N 115.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.9N 118.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W

>

2019-09-01 08:33

WTPZ41 KNHC 010832
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Earlier scatterometer surface wind data around 0400 UTC indicate
that the low pressure system located about 400 nmi south-southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico, had become better defined and that
tropical-storm-force winds were occurring in the northern
semicircle. More specifically, an ASCAT-A pass revealed peak surface
winds of 42 kt, which could have been slightly rain inflated, and an
ASCAT-C pass showed peak winds of 39 kt. Based on a blend of
these wind data, the low has been upgraded to a 40-kt tropical
storm, the tenth tropical storm of the 2019 eastern North Pacific
hurricane season.

Juliette's initial motion estimate is an uncertain 310/06 kt. The
advisory position is an average of the locations of the mid- and
low-level circulation centers, in anticipation of the low-level
center noted in the ASCAT-C wind data developing closer to the
recent bursts of central deep convection. Otherwise, the track
forecast is pretty straight-forward with the NHC model guidance in
good agreement on maintaining the deep-layer ridge to the north of
Juliette throughout the forecast period. This steering pattern
should result in the cyclone moving slowly northwestward today,
followed by a turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in
forward speed on Monday, with a west-northwestward motion continuing
through 120 hours. The NHC forecast track lies close to the tightly
packed consensus models HCCA and TVCE.

Juliette is expected to remain within a favorable environment for
intensification to occur over the next 48-72 hours or so, which is
characterized by low vertical wind shear of less than 10 kt, a
moist mid-level environment, and sea-surface temperatures (SST) of
28-29 deg C. Therefore, the official intensity forecast calls for
steady strengthening, with Juliette expected to become a hurricane
on Monday. By 96 hours, the cyclone will be moving over SSTs around
26 deg C and cooler, which should induce gradual weakening. The NHC
intensity forecast is above the consensus intensity models HCCA and
IVCN, and is close to a blend of the statistical SHIPS intensity
models and the dynamical HWRF model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 01/0900Z 13.2N 107.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 01/1800Z 14.5N 109.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 02/0600Z 15.7N 111.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 02/1800Z 16.7N 113.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 03/0600Z 17.6N 115.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 04/0600Z 18.9N 118.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 06/0600Z 21.8N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-09-01 08:33

WTPZ21 KNHC 010831
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.6W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 107.6W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 107.4W

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.5N 109.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.7N 111.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.7N 113.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.6N 115.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.9N 118.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 21.8N 124.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.2N 107.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>