Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHANTAL-19
Off-shore

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2019-08-22 08:44

WTNT44 KNHC 220842
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019
500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019

Chantal has been able to sustain an area of convection just to the
east of its low-level center since the last advisory, and final-T
numbers are actually back up to a unanimous T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and
SAB. The initial intensity is therefore held at 30 kt. The
depression is getting ready to move over a tongue of slightly warmer
waters, and vertical shear is forecast to decrease below 10 kt in a
day or two. However, there is abundant dry air around the system,
and upper-level convergence is expected to increase, both of which
should extinguish Chantal's organized deep convection in 24-36
hours. The NHC intensity forecast continues to most closely follow
the global models, with Chantal expected to become a remnant low on
Friday and degenerate into a trough on Sunday.

Chantal is moving south of due east and a little slower than before,
or 100/15 kt. A low- to mid-level ridge to the south is expected to
build over Chantal in the coming days, leaving the depression in
weak steering flow and causing it to make a slow clockwise loop
before it dissipates. The new NHC track forecast is mainly an
update of the previous one and lies between the ECMWF, HCCA, and
the multi-model consensus aids.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 39.1N 45.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 38.4N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z 35.6N 41.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0600Z 36.2N 43.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-08-22 08:44

WTNT34 KNHC 220842
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019
500 AM AST Thu Aug 22 2019

...CHANTAL SLOWING DOWN OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.1N 45.7W
ABOUT 645 MI...1035 KM SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal
was located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 45.7 West. The
depression is moving toward the east near 17 mph (28 km/h).
Chantal is forecast to slow down and make a clockwise loop through
the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Weakening is expected, and Chantal is forecast to degenerate into a
remnant low by Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Berg

>

2019-08-22 08:43

WTNT24 KNHC 220841
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019
0900 UTC THU AUG 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 45.7W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.1N 45.7W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.3N 46.4W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 38.4N 43.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.6N 41.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 36.2N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.1N 45.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG

>

2019-08-22 02:34

WTNT44 KNHC 220232
TCDAT4

Tropical Depression Chantal Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019

Chantal's cloud pattern has become quite ragged during the past
several hours with a shrinking intermittently bursting convective
mass remaining sheared to the east of the surface center. The
initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt and is in agreement with a
recent 0020 UTC ASCAT-A overpass and the subjective satellite
intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB.

There are no changes to the philosophy of the intensity forecast.
Further weakening is forecast through the period as the depression
continues moving through an inhibiting, high statically stable
surrounding environment. The official forecast calls for Chantal
to degenerate into a remnant low by Friday night, if not sooner,
and is based primarily on the deterministic models.

The initial motion is estimated to be east-southeastward, or 105/16
kt, within the deep-layer mid-latitude westerlies. Chantal is
forecast to turn southeastward to southward, around the
eastern periphery of a subtropical high, with a reduction in
forward speed, over the next couple of days. By Saturday night, the
remnants of Chantal is likely to turn toward the west-northwest as
high pressure near the Azores Islands builds to the east of the
cyclone. The NHC track forecast is a compromise of the TVCA
multi-model guidance and the NOAA HFIP corrected consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 39.4N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 38.8N 44.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 37.9N 42.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 36.8N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 35.9N 41.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0000Z 35.8N 42.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-08-22 02:34

WTNT34 KNHC 220232
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Chantal Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019
1100 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019

...CHANTAL WEAKENS TO A DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 47.4W
ABOUT 580 MI...935 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Chantal
was located near latitude 39.4 North, longitude 47.4 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 18 mph (30
km/h), and a turn toward the southeast with a decrease in forward
speed is expected by Friday. Chantal is forecast to slow further
and turn southward Friday night then drift clock-wise southwestward
to west-northwestward over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with
higher gusts. Further weakening is anticipated, and Chantal is
forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by Friday night.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

>

2019-08-22 02:34

WTNT24 KNHC 220232
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019
0300 UTC THU AUG 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 47.4W AT 22/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 105 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 70SE 70SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 47.4W AT 22/0300Z
AT 22/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.6N 48.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 38.8N 44.9W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 37.9N 42.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 36.8N 41.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 35.9N 41.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 35.8N 42.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 47.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

>

2019-08-21 20:35

WTNT44 KNHC 212033
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019
500 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019

Deep convection associated with Chantal has diminished and is
confined to some disorganized patches of showers and thunderstorms
northeast of the center. The advisory intensity estimate is held
at 35 kt, pending the arrival of new scatterometer data. The
cyclone should continue to move through a dry mid- to low-level
air mass, with humidities less than 40 percent, during the next few
days. This is likely to cause weakening, and it is expected that
Chantal will become a tropical depression tomorrow and a remnant
low by Friday. Given the current appearance of the system, loss
of tropical cyclone status and dissipation are now forecast to occur
much sooner than earlier anticipated. This is in good agreement
with the latest HWRF model run.

The storm is moving just south of east, or 100/17 kt. Little
change has been made to the previous track forecast or reasoning.
Chantal should follow a clockwise path, around the western periphery
of a mid-level high pressure area, at a slower forward speed over
the next few days. In 3-4 days, what is left of the cyclone is
likely to turn northwestward to northward. The official track
forecast is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model
consensus, TVCN and HCCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 39.8N 49.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 39.4N 46.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 38.5N 43.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1800Z 35.4N 42.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z 36.0N 42.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-08-21 20:35

WTNT34 KNHC 212033
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019
500 PM AST Wed Aug 21 2019

...DISORGANIZED CHANTAL LIKELY TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.8N 49.1W
ABOUT 515 MI...830 KM SSE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 100 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 39.8 North, longitude 49.1 West. Chantal is
moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the
southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Thursday.
Chantal is forecast to slow further and turn southward on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Chantal is forecast to become
a tropical depression by Thursday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-08-21 20:34

WTNT24 KNHC 212032
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019
2100 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 49.1W AT 21/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 100 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.8N 49.1W AT 21/2100Z
AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 50.3W

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.4N 46.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 38.5N 43.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 37.3N 41.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 36.3N 41.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 35.4N 42.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1800Z 36.0N 42.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.8N 49.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-08-21 16:00

WTNT82 EGRR 211559

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 21.08.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 107.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2019 0 15.8N 107.1W 1005 26
0000UTC 22.08.2019 12 16.4N 110.6W 1003 28
1200UTC 22.08.2019 24 16.4N 114.1W 999 30
0000UTC 23.08.2019 36 16.6N 116.6W 996 37
1200UTC 23.08.2019 48 17.2N 117.9W 997 37
0000UTC 24.08.2019 60 18.9N 118.6W 997 34
1200UTC 24.08.2019 72 20.4N 119.0W 997 32
0000UTC 25.08.2019 84 23.0N 119.5W 999 32
1200UTC 25.08.2019 96 26.4N 120.3W 1000 38
0000UTC 26.08.2019 108 29.2N 121.9W 1004 28
1200UTC 26.08.2019 120 30.7N 122.8W 1008 19
0000UTC 27.08.2019 132 32.3N 123.0W 1009 16
1200UTC 27.08.2019 144 CEASED TRACKING

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ANALYSED POSITION : 40.2N 52.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042019

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 21.08.2019 0 40.2N 52.4W 1012 29
0000UTC 22.08.2019 12 39.6N 48.3W 1015 26
1200UTC 22.08.2019 24 39.0N 44.8W 1016 25
0000UTC 23.08.2019 36 38.0N 42.4W 1017 22
1200UTC 23.08.2019 48 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.9N 137.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 23.08.2019 36 14.3N 138.1W 1007 23
1200UTC 23.08.2019 48 14.7N 140.4W 1007 26
0000UTC 24.08.2019 60 15.0N 142.7W 1007 25
1200UTC 24.08.2019 72 CEASED TRACKING

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 29.4N 79.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 26.08.2019 108 29.4N 79.5W 1007 29
1200UTC 26.08.2019 120 31.3N 78.9W 1003 35
0000UTC 27.08.2019 132 33.1N 77.4W 996 44
1200UTC 27.08.2019 144 35.0N 75.5W 984 56

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.4N 156.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 27.08.2019 132 14.4N 157.8W 1006 28
1200UTC 27.08.2019 144 15.1N 159.0W 1005 27


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 211558

>

2019-08-21 16:00

WTNT80 EGRR 211558

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 21.08.2019

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95E ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 107.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP952019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.08.2019 15.8N 107.1W WEAK
00UTC 22.08.2019 16.4N 110.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2019 16.4N 114.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2019 16.6N 116.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2019 17.2N 117.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2019 18.9N 118.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2019 20.4N 119.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2019 23.0N 119.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2019 26.4N 120.3W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2019 29.2N 121.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 26.08.2019 30.7N 122.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2019 32.3N 123.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 27.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL ANALYSED POSITION : 40.2N 52.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL042019

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 21.08.2019 40.2N 52.4W WEAK
00UTC 22.08.2019 39.6N 48.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 22.08.2019 39.0N 44.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 23.08.2019 38.0N 42.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 13.9N 137.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 23.08.2019 14.3N 138.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 23.08.2019 14.7N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2019 15.0N 142.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2019 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 29.4N 79.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 26.08.2019 29.4N 79.5W WEAK
12UTC 26.08.2019 31.3N 78.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 27.08.2019 33.1N 77.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.08.2019 35.0N 75.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 14.4N 156.8W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 27.08.2019 14.4N 157.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 27.08.2019 15.1N 159.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE


THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.

BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE
ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK

MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 211558

>

2019-08-21 14:45

WTNT44 KNHC 211443
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019

Chantal has changed little since last night. It remains a sheared
tropical cyclone, with the low-level center exposed to the west of
the deep convection. The current intensity estimate is held at 35
kt based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.
Although the shear is forecast to gradually diminish, the system
should remain in an environment of dry air at the low- to
mid-levels for the next several days. This will likely cause
weakening, and Chantal is forecast to become a depression within 48
hours and degenerate into a remnant low in 3 to 4 days. The
official intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, and
only slightly below the model consensus.

The motion continues eastward, or 090/17 kt. Chantal is forecast
to turn clockwise and decelerate around the periphery of a mid-level
anticyclone over the next few days. Later in the period, the
cyclone is predicted to drift northward. The official track
forecast is close to the latest HFIP Corrected Consensus, HCCA,
guidance.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 40.2N 51.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 40.0N 48.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 39.2N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 38.1N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 36.9N 41.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 35.5N 42.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 25/1200Z 36.0N 43.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/1200Z 37.0N 43.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-08-21 14:44

WTNT34 KNHC 211442
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019
1100 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019

...CHANTAL CONTINUES EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC WITH
LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 51.6W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 51.6 West. Chantal is
moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the
southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Thursday.
Chantal is forecast to slow further and turn southward on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Chantal is forecast to become
a tropical depression in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

>

2019-08-21 14:44

WTNT24 KNHC 211441
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019
1500 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 51.6W AT 21/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 51.6W AT 21/1500Z
AT 21/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 52.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 40.0N 48.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.2N 44.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 38.1N 42.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 36.9N 41.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 35.5N 42.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/1200Z 36.0N 43.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 37.0N 43.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 51.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

>

2019-08-21 08:37

WTNT44 KNHC 210835
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019
500 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019

Chantal has changed little overnight. A small area of deep
convection has persisted northeast of the tropical storm's exposed
surface center. Given the steady-state structure of the cyclone, the
initial intensity has been held at 35 kt based on earlier ASCAT
data.

Only minor adjustments were made to the NHC track and intensity
forecasts, the most substantial of which is that Chantal is now
expected to become a remnant low within 96 h. The tropical storm is
surrounded by dry air and will be moving over marginal SSTs for the
next couple of days. As a result of this unfavorable environment,
Chantal is expected to weaken to a tropical depression by 48 h. Most
of the dynamical models indicate that the cyclone will lose all of
its convection and become post-tropical soon after, but the official
forecast conservatively maintains the system as a tropical cyclone
for 72 h. The official intensity forecast is near a consensus of the
GFS, HMON, and HWRF models.

The tropical storm is moving quickly eastward, but is forecast to
slow and turn southeastward by Thursday. It should then turn toward
the south on Friday as it moves around the northeast periphery of a
low- to mid-level ridge centered over the central Atlantic. The
track guidance is in good agreement on the forecast, at least as
long as Chantal remains a tropical cyclone. The uncertainty in the
track forecast is higher after the cyclone becomes a remnant low,
but most of the guidance generally suggests that Chantal will become
trapped in weak steering flow and meander over the North Atlantic
for a couple days thereafter.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 40.3N 53.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 40.2N 50.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 39.6N 46.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1800Z 38.4N 43.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0600Z 37.2N 42.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 24/0600Z 35.3N 42.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 25/0600Z 35.5N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 26/0600Z 37.5N 44.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-08-21 08:34

WTNT34 KNHC 210832
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019
500 AM AST Wed Aug 21 2019

...CHANTAL CHARGING EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.3N 53.7W
ABOUT 445 MI...715 KM S OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Chantal was
located near latitude 40.3 North, longitude 53.7 West. Chantal is
moving toward the east near 22 mph (35 km/h). A turn toward the
southeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected by Thursday.
Chantal is forecast to slow further and turn southward on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Gradual weakening is anticipated, and Chantal is forecast to become
a tropical depression in a couple of days.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center, mainly to the south.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

>

2019-08-21 08:33

WTNT24 KNHC 210831
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019
0900 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 53.7W AT 21/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 53.7W AT 21/0900Z
AT 21/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.3N 54.8W

FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 40.2N 50.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 50SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 39.6N 46.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 38.4N 43.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 50SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 37.2N 42.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 35.3N 42.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0600Z 35.5N 44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 37.5N 44.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.3N 53.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER ZELINSKY

>

2019-08-21 02:35

WTNT44 KNHC 210232
TCDAT4

Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 20 2019

Recent scatterometer wind data and passive microwave satellite
images indicate that the small low pressure system that the NHC has
been monitoring for the past few days has developed a well-defined
surface wind circulation and contains tropical-storm-force winds
south of the cyclone's center. Therefore, the low has become
Tropical Storm Chantal.

The initial motion estimate is 085/19 kt. NHC model guidance is in
excellent agreement that Chantal will move eastward around the
northern periphery of the Bermuda-Azores high and gradually slow
down during the next 48 hours. Thereafter, the cyclone is forecast
to drop southward around the eastern portion of the ridge, possibly
stalling over warmer waters. The NHC forecast track lies close to
the consensus models HCCA and TVCN.

Chantal is expected to remain in a moderate southwesterly to
westerly vertical wind shear regime for the next 48 hours or so,
followed by a significant decrease in the shear through 120 h. After
48 hours, the southward motion is also expected to move Chantal over
warmer water with SSTs around 27C. However, mid-level moisture is
expected to be quite sparse with humidity values forecast to be less
than 40 percent based on the GFS and ECMWF SHIPS intensity guidance.
Therefore, little or no significant intensification is expected
throughout the forecast period, and the official intensity forecast
closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN consensus models.
Although the official forecast calls for Chantal to remain a
tropical cyclone through the 120 h, the abundance of dry air that
the cyclone will be moving through could result in erosion of the
deep convection sooner than currently expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 40.2N 56.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 40.3N 52.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 40.2N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 39.0N 44.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 23/0000Z 37.4N 42.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 24/0000Z 34.9N 42.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 25/0000Z 34.6N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
120H 26/0000Z 36.0N 44.8W 35 KT 40 MPH

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-08-21 02:34

WTNT34 KNHC 210231
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Chantal Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042019
1100 PM AST Tue Aug 20 2019

...TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORMS OVER THE FAR NORTH ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...40.2N 56.2W
ABOUT 485 MI...780 KM SE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM SSW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Storm
Chantal was located near latitude 40.2 North, longitude 56.2 West.
Chantal is moving toward the east near 22 mph (35 km/h) and this
general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected
through Friday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km),
mainly south of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

>

2019-08-21 02:33

WTNT24 KNHC 210231
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019
0300 UTC WED AUG 21 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.2W AT 21/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 85 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.2W AT 21/0300Z
AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 40.1N 57.4W

FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 40.3N 52.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 40.2N 48.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 39.0N 44.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 37.4N 42.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 34.9N 42.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 40SE 40SW 30NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 25/0000Z 34.6N 44.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0000Z 36.0N 44.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 56.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 21/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

>