Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone for DANAS-19
in , Korea, Republic of, Japan, Democratic People's Republic of, China, Philippines

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 210900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210900UTC 39.4N 129.6E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220900UTC 44.2N 132.9E 70NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 210300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 210300UTC 38.3N 129.4E GOOD
MOVE ENE 13KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 220300UTC 42.9N 133.3E 50NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 202100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 202100UTC 37.6N 128.0E GOOD
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 212100UTC 42.0N 131.6E 50NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 201500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 201500UTC 36.3N 127.0E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 211500UTC 41.1N 130.6E 50NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 200900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200900UTC 35.3N 125.9E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 210900UTC 39.8N 129.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 220600UTC 43.3N 134.0E 90NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 200600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 34.8N, 125.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW SSTS, LOW
TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS
AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE
OVER THE SEA. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 200300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 200300UTC 34.4N 125.7E GOOD
MOVE NNE 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 350NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 210300UTC 39.0N 129.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NE 15KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 220000UTC 43.7N 133.3E 90NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 200300
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 200300UTC 34.5N 125.8E
MOVEMENT NNE 8KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 31KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 192100
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 192100UTC 33.7N 125.7E
MOVEMENT NE 12KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 37KT
FORECAST
03HR
POSITION 200000UTC 34.1N 126.0E WITHIN 5NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 37KT
06HR
POSITION 200300UTC 34.6N 126.4E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 35KT
09HR
POSITION 200600UTC 35.0N 126.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 192100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 192100UTC 33.6N 125.4E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 350NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 202100UTC 37.4N 127.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 211800UTC 41.9N 131.5E 90NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 191500
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 191500UTC 32.7N 125.2E
MOVEMENT NNE 25KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 192100UTC 33.9N 125.8E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
12HR
POSITION 200300UTC 35.0N 127.3E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
18HR
POSITION 200900UTC 35.8N 128.9E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 201500UTC 36.6N 130.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 191500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191500UTC 32.4N 125.0E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 350NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 201500UTC 36.1N 125.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 211200UTC 40.7N 129.4E 90NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 191200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 191200UTC 31.5N 124.7E
MOVEMENT NE 16KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 191800UTC 33.0N 125.1E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
12HR
POSITION 200000UTC 34.1N 125.9E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
18HR
POSITION 200600UTC 35.1N 127.4E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 201200UTC 35.9N 129.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
30HR
POSITION 201800UTC 36.7N 131.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 191200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 191200UTC 31.6N 124.5E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 350NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 201200UTC 35.6N 125.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 211200UTC 40.7N 129.4E 90NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 191200
WARNING 191200.
WARNING VALID 201200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1905 DANAS (1905) 985 HPA
AT 31.6N 124.5E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 33.9N 124.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 35.6N 125.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 40.7N 129.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 191045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 190900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DANAS (1905) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF THREE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (30.9 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (124.7 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS IT RE-ENTERS THE HONG
KONG AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC
THREE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (35.2 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (125.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210900 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 190900
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 190900UTC 30.8N 124.2E
MOVEMENT N 16KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 191500UTC 32.1N 124.6E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
12HR
POSITION 192100UTC 33.5N 125.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
18HR
POSITION 200300UTC 34.6N 126.6E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
24HR
POSITION 200900UTC 35.6N 128.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
30HR
POSITION 201500UTC 36.5N 130.4E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
36HR
POSITION 202100UTC 37.4N 132.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 190900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190900UTC 31.0N 124.2E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 350NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 200900UTC 35.4N 125.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 210600UTC 39.1N 128.9E 90NM 70.
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 220600UTC 43.0N 135.0E 180NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 190600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 30.2N, 124.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS,
REDUCED TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT THE KOREAN PENINSULA
BY FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 190745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 190600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DANAS (1905) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (29.9 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (124.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 300 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC
THREE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (34.8 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (125.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210600 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 190600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 190600UTC 30.0N 124.2E
MOVEMENT NNE 9KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 191200UTC 31.5N 124.4E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
12HR
POSITION 191800UTC 32.9N 124.9E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
18HR
POSITION 200000UTC 34.1N 125.9E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
24HR
POSITION 200600UTC 35.1N 127.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
30HR
POSITION 201200UTC 36.1N 129.3E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
36HR
POSITION 201800UTC 37.0N 131.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 190600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190600UTC 30.2N 124.0E FAIR
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 350NM EAST 200NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 200600UTC 35.0N 125.1E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 210600UTC 39.1N 128.9E 90NM 70%
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 220600UTC 43.0N 135.0E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 190600
WARNING 190600.
WARNING VALID 200600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1905 DANAS (1905) 985 HPA
AT 30.2N 124.0E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 13 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 32.7N 124.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 35.0N 125.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 39.1N 128.9E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 43.0N 135.0E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 190445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 190300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DANAS (1905) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (29.6 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC
THREE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (34.2 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (125.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210300 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 190300
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 190300UTC 29.6N 124.0E
MOVEMENT N 12KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 190900UTC 31.1N 124.1E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
12HR
POSITION 191500UTC 32.6N 124.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
18HR
POSITION 192100UTC 33.8N 125.6E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 200300UTC 34.9N 127.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
30HR
POSITION 200900UTC 35.8N 128.7E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
36HR
POSITION 201500UTC 36.9N 131.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 27KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 190300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190300UTC 29.6N 124.0E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200300UTC 34.4N 125.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 210000UTC 37.8N 128.4E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 220000UTC 42.3N 132.5E 180NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 190300
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 190719015912
2019071900 06W DANAS 012 01 010 12 SATL 025
T000 289N 1240E 040 R034 180 NE QD 185 SE QD 190 SW QD 070 NW QD
T012 314N 1245E 045 R034 210 NE QD 230 SE QD 080 SW QD 050 NW QD
T024 336N 1254E 040 R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 359N 1264E 035 R034 160 NE QD 110 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD
T048 384N 1282E 030
T072 428N 1337E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 012
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 28.9N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9N 124.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 31.4N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 33.6N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 35.9N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 38.4N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 42.8N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 29.5N 124.1E.
19JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.
//
0619071106 62N1444E 15
0619071112 62N1431E 15
0619071118 64N1421E 15
0619071200 66N1414E 15
0619071206 71N1406E 15
0619071212 76N1400E 15
0619071218 81N1393E 15
0619071300 89N1383E 15
0619071306 97N1376E 15
0619071312 103N1369E 15
0619071318 116N1363E 15
0619071400 126N1360E 15
0619071406 141N1356E 15
0619071412 152N1351E 15
0619071418 158N1340E 20
0619071500 160N1329E 20
0619071506 168N1305E 20
0619071512 169N1290E 20
0619071518 170N1276E 20
0619071600 167N1265E 20
0619071606 170N1251E 25
0619071612 172N1237E 30
0619071618 173N1235E 35
0619071700 181N1235E 35
0619071706 190N1237E 35
0619071712 204N1240E 35
0619071718 223N1242E 35
0619071800 239N1243E 35
0619071806 257N1239E 40
0619071812 267N1238E 40
0619071818 277N1238E 40
0619071900 289N1240E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 190300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
190000Z --- NEAR 28.9N 124.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.9N 124.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 31.4N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 33.6N 125.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 35.9N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
210000Z --- 38.4N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
220000Z --- 42.8N 133.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
190300Z POSITION NEAR 29.5N 124.1E.
19JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM
SOUTHEAST OF SHANGHAI, CHINA, HAS TRACKED AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 22
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 190145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 190000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DANAS (1905) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (28.9 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC
THREE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (33.7 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (125.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210000 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 190000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 190000UTC 29.0N 124.0E
MOVEMENT N 15KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 190600UTC 30.5N 123.9E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
12HR
POSITION 191200UTC 31.9N 124.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
18HR
POSITION 191800UTC 33.1N 125.2E WITHIN 40NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 200000UTC 34.3N 126.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
30HR
POSITION 200600UTC 35.2N 127.6E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
36HR
POSITION 201200UTC 36.4N 129.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 190000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 190000UTC 28.9N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 200000UTC 33.7N 125.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 210000UTC 37.8N 128.4E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 220000UTC 42.3N 132.5E 180NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 190000
WARNING 190000.
WARNING VALID 200000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1905 DANAS (1905) 985 HPA
AT 28.9N 123.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 31.7N 124.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 33.7N 125.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 37.8N 128.4E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 42.3N 132.5E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 182245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 182100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DANAS (1905) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (28.4 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 192100 UTC
THREE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (33.2 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (124.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 202100 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 182100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 182100UTC 28.5N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 192100UTC 33.0N 125.6E 70NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 201800UTC 36.9N 128.2E 90NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 211800UTC 40.9N 131.7E 140NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 182100
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 190718192302
2019071818 06W DANAS 011 01 360 10 SATL 020
T000 277N 1238E 040 R034 190 NE QD 205 SE QD 175 SW QD 020 NW QD
T012 300N 1242E 045 R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 325N 1251E 045 R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 344N 1259E 035 R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 365N 1271E 030
T072 417N 1313E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 011
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 27.7N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 30.0N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 32.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 34.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 36.5N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 41.7N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 123.9E.
18JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.
//
0619071106 62N1444E 15
0619071112 62N1431E 15
0619071118 64N1421E 15
0619071200 66N1414E 15
0619071206 71N1406E 15
0619071212 76N1400E 15
0619071218 81N1393E 15
0619071300 89N1383E 15
0619071306 97N1376E 15
0619071312 103N1369E 15
0619071318 116N1363E 15
0619071400 126N1360E 15
0619071406 141N1356E 15
0619071412 152N1351E 15
0619071418 158N1340E 20
0619071500 160N1329E 20
0619071506 168N1305E 20
0619071512 169N1290E 20
0619071518 170N1276E 20
0619071600 167N1265E 20
0619071606 170N1251E 25
0619071612 172N1237E 30
0619071618 173N1235E 35
0619071700 181N1235E 35
0619071706 190N1237E 35
0619071712 204N1240E 35
0619071718 223N1242E 35
0619071800 239N1243E 35
0619071806 257N1239E 40
0619071812 267N1238E 40
0619071818 277N1238E 40

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 182100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181800Z --- NEAR 27.7N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.7N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 30.0N 124.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 32.5N 125.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 34.4N 125.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 36.5N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 41.7N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
182100Z POSITION NEAR 28.3N 123.9E.
18JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT
10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
181800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND
192100Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 181945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 181800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DANAS (1905) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (27.8 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191800 UTC
THREE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (32.6 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (124.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201800 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 181800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 181800UTC 27.5N 123.9E
MOVEMENT N 12KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
06HR
POSITION 190000UTC 28.8N 123.8E WITHIN 15NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
12HR
POSITION 190600UTC 30.4N 123.9E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
18HR
POSITION 191200UTC 31.8N 124.3E WITHIN 45NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 191800UTC 33.1N 125.1E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
30HR
POSITION 200000UTC 34.1N 126.1E WITHIN 65NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 181800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181800UTC 27.5N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 240NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 191800UTC 32.4N 125.2E 60NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 201800UTC 36.9N 128.2E 90NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 211800UTC 40.9N 131.7E 140NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 181800
WARNING 181800.
WARNING VALID 191800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1905 DANAS (1905) 985 HPA
AT 27.5N 123.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 240
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 29.9N 124.4E WITH 45 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 32.4N 125.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 36.9N 128.2E WITH 90 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 40.9N 131.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 181645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 181500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DANAS (1905) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (27.3 N) ONE
TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 270 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191500 UTC
THREE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (31.8 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201500 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 26.8N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 31.5N 125.3E 70NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 201200UTC 35.3N 127.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 211200UTC 39.4N 130.4E 180NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 221200UTC 42.5N 134.8E 260NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 181500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181500UTC 26.8N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 191500UTC 31.5N 125.3E 70NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 201200UTC 35.3N 127.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 211200UTC 39.4N 130.4E 180NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 181500
WARNING ATCG MIL 06W NWP 190718133247
2019071812 06W DANAS 010 01 355 10 SATL RADR 045
T000 267N 1238E 040 R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 185 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 292N 1239E 045 R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 150 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 312N 1245E 045 R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 160 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 332N 1255E 040 R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 020 NW QD
T048 351N 1268E 035 R034 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 170 SW QD 020 NW QD
T072 396N 1305E 020
AMP
048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 26.7N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 29.2N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 31.2N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 33.2N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 35.1N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 39.6N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 123.8E.
18JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
WEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
0619071106 62N1444E 15
0619071112 62N1431E 15
0619071118 64N1421E 15
0619071200 66N1414E 15
0619071206 71N1406E 15
0619071212 76N1400E 15
0619071218 81N1393E 15
0619071300 89N1383E 15
0619071306 97N1376E 15
0619071312 103N1369E 15
0619071318 116N1363E 15
0619071400 126N1360E 15
0619071406 141N1356E 15
0619071412 152N1351E 15
0619071418 158N1340E 20
0619071500 160N1329E 20
0619071506 168N1305E 20
0619071512 169N1290E 20
0619071518 170N1276E 20
0619071600 167N1265E 20
0619071606 170N1251E 25
0619071612 172N1237E 30
0619071618 173N1235E 35
0619071700 181N1235E 35
0619071706 190N1237E 35
0619071712 204N1240E 35
0619071718 223N1242E 35
0619071800 239N1243E 35
0619071806 257N1239E 40
0619071812 267N1238E 40
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 181500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
181200Z --- NEAR 26.7N 123.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.7N 123.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 29.2N 123.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
191200Z --- 31.2N 124.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
200000Z --- 33.2N 125.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
201200Z --- 35.1N 126.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
211200Z --- 39.6N 130.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
181500Z POSITION NEAR 27.3N 123.8E.
18JUL19. TROPICAL STORM 06W (DANAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
WEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS
20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.//
NNNN

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 181200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 26.4N, 123.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F15/SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 26.4N, 123.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK
VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F15/SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND, LOW SSTS AND INCREASED VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96.
THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 181345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 181200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DANAS (1905) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (26.5 N) ONE TWO
THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (123.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191200 UTC
THREE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (31.2 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201200 UTC
THREE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (35.4 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (126.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211200 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 181200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 181200UTC 26.3N 123.9E
MOVEMENT NNW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 190000UTC 29.0N 123.6E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 191200UTC 31.7N 124.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 200000UTC 34.0N 125.9E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
48HR
POSITION 201200UTC 36.2N 129.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
60HR
POSITION 210000UTC 38.5N 133.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 26.4N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 31.0N 125.0E 70NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 201200UTC 35.3N 127.3E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 211200UTC 39.4N 130.4E 180NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 221200UTC 42.5N 134.8E 260NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 181200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 181200UTC 26.4N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 191200UTC 31.0N 125.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 201200UTC 35.3N 127.3E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 211200UTC 39.4N 130.4E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 181200
WARNING 181200.
WARNING VALID 191200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1905 DANAS (1905) 990 HPA
AT 26.4N 123.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 28.8N 124.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 31.0N 125.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 35.3N 127.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 39.4N 130.4E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 42.5N 134.8E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 181045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 180900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DANAS (1905) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (26.1 N) ONE TWO
THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (30.7 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (124.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC
THREE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (34.9 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (126.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210900 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 26.1N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 190900UTC 30.3N 124.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 200600UTC 34.3N 126.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 210600UTC 38.9N 130.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
93HF 220600UTC 42.1N 134.0E 260NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 180900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180900UTC 26.1N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 190900UTC 30.3N 124.9E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 200600UTC 34.3N 126.4E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 210600UTC 38.9N 130.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 180600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 25.3N, 123.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT96. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 25.3N, 123.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT96. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT96 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM
WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT96. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 180745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 180600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DANAS (1905) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (25.6 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (30.1 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC
THREE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (34.4 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (126.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210600 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 180600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 180600UTC 25.6N 124.2E
MOVEMENT N 20KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 181800UTC 28.0N 123.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 190600UTC 30.7N 123.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 191800UTC 33.0N 125.0E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 200600UTC 35.2N 127.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
72HR
POSITION 210600UTC 39.3N 135.4E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 31KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 25.3N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 29.8N 124.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 200600UTC 34.3N 126.4E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 210600UTC 38.9N 130.1E 180NM 70.
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 220600UTC 42.1N 134.0E 260NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 180600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180600UTC 25.3N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 190600UTC 29.8N 124.7E 70NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 200600UTC 34.3N 126.4E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 210600UTC 38.9N 130.1E 180NM 70.
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 180600
WARNING 180600.
WARNING VALID 190600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1905 DANAS (1905) 990 HPA
AT 25.3N 123.9E EAST CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 27.8N 124.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 29.8N 124.7E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 34.3N 126.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 38.9N 130.1E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 42.1N 134.0E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 180445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 180300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DANAS (1905) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (24.9 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 60 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 180 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (30.1 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC
THREE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (33.6 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (126.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210300 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 24.9N 124.1E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 190300UTC 29.1N 124.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 200000UTC 31.9N 125.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 210000UTC 36.7N 127.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 220000UTC 41.4N 131.1E 260NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 230000UTC 42.9N 134.9E 350NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 180300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180300UTC 24.9N 124.1E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 190300UTC 29.1N 124.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 200000UTC 31.9N 125.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 210000UTC 36.7N 127.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 180000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 23.4N, 124.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR
IS UNFAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 23.4N, 124.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR
IS UNFAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS, DRY AIR AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT120. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 180145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 180000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DANAS (1905) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (23.5 N) ONE
TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (28.7 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (123.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC
THREE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (32.8 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (125.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210000 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 180000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 180000UTC 23.6N 124.2E
MOVEMENT N 21KT
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 181200UTC 26.4N 123.5E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
24HR
POSITION 190000UTC 29.6N 123.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
36HR
POSITION 191200UTC 32.6N 124.6E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 200000UTC 35.0N 127.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
72HR
POSITION 210000UTC 39.2N 135.3E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 23.4N 124.2E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 27.9N 124.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 200000UTC 31.9N 125.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 210000UTC 36.7N 127.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 220000UTC 41.4N 131.1E 260NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 230000UTC 42.9N 134.9E 350NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 180000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 180000UTC 23.4N 124.2E FAIR
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 190000UTC 27.9N 124.3E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 200000UTC 31.9N 125.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 210000UTC 36.7N 127.9E 180NM 70%
MOVE NNE 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 180000
WARNING 180000.
WARNING VALID 190000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1905 DANAS (1905) 990 HPA
AT 23.4N 124.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 25.9N 123.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 27.9N 124.3E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 31.9N 125.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 36.7N 127.9E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 41.4N 131.1E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 230000UTC AT 42.9N 134.9E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 172245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 172100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DANAS (1905) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (22.5 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (124.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (28.2 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (123.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 192100 UTC
THREE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (32.3 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (125.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 202100 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 22.2N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 182100UTC 28.0N 123.8E 70NM 70.
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 191800UTC 31.0N 125.5E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 201800UTC 34.6N 127.2E 180NM 70.
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 211800UTC 37.6N 129.3E 260NM 70.
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 221800UTC 39.1N 130.3E 350NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 172100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 172100UTC 22.2N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 182100UTC 28.0N 123.8E 70NM 70.
MOVE N 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 191800UTC 31.0N 125.5E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 201800UTC 34.6N 127.2E 180NM 70.
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 171945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 171800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM DANAS (1905) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N) ONE TWO
FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (124.3 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181800 UTC
TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (27.5 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (123.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191800 UTC
THREE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (31.5 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (125.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201800 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 171800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 21.5N, 123.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 21.5N, 123.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN
ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE
CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT120. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 171800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 171800UTC 21.5N 124.1E
MOVEMENT N 10KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 180600UTC 24.7N 123.7E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 181800UTC 28.0N 123.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 190600UTC 31.2N 123.8E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 191800UTC 33.7N 126.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
72HR
POSITION 201800UTC 37.6N 134.3E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
96HR
POSITION 211800UTC 39.8N 140.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 21.5N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 181800UTC 26.7N 123.5E 70NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 191800UTC 31.0N 125.5E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 201800UTC 34.6N 127.2E 180NM 70.
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 211800UTC 37.6N 129.3E 260NM 70.
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 221800UTC 39.1N 130.3E 350NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 171800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171800UTC 21.5N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM
FORECAST
24HF 181800UTC 26.7N 123.5E 70NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 191800UTC 31.0N 125.5E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 201800UTC 34.6N 127.2E 180NM 70.
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 171800
WARNING 171800.
WARNING VALID 181800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1905 DANAS (1905) 992 HPA
AT 21.5N 123.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 24.4N 122.9E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 26.7N 123.5E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 31.0N 125.5E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 34.6N 127.2E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 37.6N 129.3E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221800UTC AT 39.1N 130.3E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 20.9N 124.0E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181500UTC 25.9N 123.1E 70NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 191200UTC 29.6N 124.9E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 201200UTC 33.6N 126.8E 180NM 70.
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 211200UTC 36.8N 128.9E 260NM 70.
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
117HF 221200UTC 39.4N 132.2E 350NM 70.
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 171500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171500UTC 20.9N 124.0E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181500UTC 25.9N 123.1E 70NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 191200UTC 29.6N 124.9E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 201200UTC 33.6N 126.8E 180NM 70.
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 171345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 171200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANAS (1905) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181200 UTC
TWO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (26.7 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191200 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (30.7 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (126.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201200 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 171200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 20.5N, 123.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 20.5N, 123.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED
THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 171200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 171200UTC 20.5N 124.1E
MOVEMENT NNE 16KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 180000UTC 23.8N 124.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 181200UTC 26.9N 123.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 190000UTC 30.1N 123.4E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 191200UTC 33.0N 125.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 201200UTC 36.8N 132.5E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
96HR
POSITION 211200UTC 39.5N 139.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 20.5N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 25.2N 122.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 191200UTC 29.6N 124.9E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 201200UTC 33.6N 126.8E 180NM 70.
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
96HF 211200UTC 36.8N 128.9E 260NM 70.
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
120HF 221200UTC 39.4N 132.2E 350NM 70.
MOVE NE 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 171200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 171200UTC 20.5N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 181200UTC 25.2N 122.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 191200UTC 29.6N 124.9E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 201200UTC 33.6N 126.8E 180NM 70.
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 171200
WARNING 171200.
WARNING VALID 181200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1905 DANAS (1905) 992 HPA
AT 20.5N 123.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 12 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 22.7N 123.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 25.2N 122.9E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 29.6N 124.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 33.6N 126.8E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 36.8N 128.9E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 221200UTC AT 39.4N 132.2E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 171045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 170900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANAS (1905) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9
N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (124.2 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 14 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (25.9 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC
THREE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (30.3 N)
ONE TWO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (126.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC
THREE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (34.8 N)
ONE TWO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (129.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210900 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 19.8N 123.6E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 24.3N 122.2E 70NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 190600UTC 26.6N 122.9E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 200600UTC 31.0N 124.1E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 210600UTC 34.8N 125.0E 260NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 220600UTC 37.1N 126.2E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 170900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170900UTC 19.8N 123.6E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180900UTC 24.3N 122.2E 70NM 70.
MOVE N 13KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 190600UTC 26.6N 122.9E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 200600UTC 31.0N 124.1E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 170745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 170600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANAS (1905) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0
N) ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (123.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (25.3 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (124.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190600 UTC
TWO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (29.7 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (125.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC
THREE FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (34.4 N)
ONE TWO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (128.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210600 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 170600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 19.0N, 123.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 19.0N, 123.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC,
INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS
GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 170600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 170600UTC 19.0N 123.7E
MOVEMENT NNE 8KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 171800UTC 21.2N 122.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 180600UTC 24.6N 122.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 181800UTC 28.0N 123.0E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 190600UTC 32.0N 124.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 200600UTC 35.8N 130.4E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
96HR
POSITION 210600UTC 39.1N 138.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 19.0N 123.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 22.7N 122.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 190600UTC 26.6N 122.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 200600UTC 31.0N 124.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 210600UTC 34.8N 125.0E 260NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 220600UTC 37.1N 126.2E 350NM 70%
MOVE NNE 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 19.0N 123.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 350NM SOUTHEAST 270NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180600UTC 22.7N 122.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 190600UTC 26.6N 122.9E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 200600UTC 31.0N 124.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 170600
WARNING 170600.
WARNING VALID 180600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1905 DANAS (1905) 994 HPA
AT 19.0N 123.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 350 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 270
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 20.6N 122.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 22.7N 122.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 26.6N 122.9E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 31.0N 124.1E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 34.8N 125.0E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 37.1N 126.2E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 170445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 170300 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANAS (1905) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7
N) ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (123.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC
TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (23.4 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (123.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190300 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (28.4 N)
ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (124.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC
THREE THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (33.4 N)
ONE TWO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (125.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210300 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 18.6N 123.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180300UTC 21.8N 121.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 190000UTC 25.9N 122.4E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 200000UTC 30.3N 123.5E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 210000UTC 33.9N 124.4E 260NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 220000UTC 36.2N 125.0E 350NM 70.
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 18.6N 123.1E FAIR
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180300UTC 21.8N 121.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 190000UTC 25.9N 122.4E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 200000UTC 30.3N 123.5E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 170000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 18.2N, 123.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING
INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 18.2N, 123.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING
INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 170145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 170000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANAS (1905) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2
N) ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (123.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST OR NORTH-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8
KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190000 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (24.9 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200000 UTC
TWO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (29.0 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210000 UTC
THREE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (32.8 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (123.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220000 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 170000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 170000UTC 18.2N 123.5E
MOVEMENT NNE 8KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 171200UTC 19.9N 122.0E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
24HR
POSITION 180000UTC 22.1N 121.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 181200UTC 24.1N 121.2E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 190000UTC 25.7N 121.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 200000UTC 29.9N 122.0E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
96HR
POSITION 210000UTC 34.1N 122.8E WITHIN 200NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
120HR
POSITION 220000UTC 36.9N 124.7E WITHIN 260NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 33KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 18.2N 123.1E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 21.2N 121.8E 70NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 190000UTC 25.9N 122.4E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 200000UTC 30.3N 123.5E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 210000UTC 33.9N 124.4E 260NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 220000UTC 36.2N 125.0E 350NM 70.
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 18.2N 123.1E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 21.2N 121.8E 70NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 190000UTC 25.9N 122.4E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 200000UTC 30.3N 123.5E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 170000
WARNING 170000.
WARNING VALID 180000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1905 DANAS (1905) 994 HPA
AT 18.2N 123.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 19.5N 122.2E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 21.2N 121.8E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 25.9N 122.4E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 30.3N 123.5E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 33.9N 124.4E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 36.2N 125.0E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 162245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 162100 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANAS (1905) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7
N) ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 192100 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (28.5 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (121.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 202100 UTC
THREE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (32.3 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (122.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 212100 UTC
BECOME EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 17.9N 123.1E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 21.5N 121.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 181800UTC 25.3N 121.6E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 191800UTC 28.8N 122.3E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 201800UTC 33.2N 123.0E 260NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 211800UTC 36.9N 124.6E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 17.9N 123.1E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 21.5N 121.9E 70NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 181800UTC 25.3N 121.6E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 191800UTC 28.8N 122.3E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 17.7N, 123.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF
ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING
INTERFERENCE FROM INTENSIFICATION.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER
SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.

=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 161945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 161800 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANAS (1905) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6
N) ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (123.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171800 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (121.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181800 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (24.4 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191800 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (28.4 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201800 UTC
THREE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (32.4 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (121.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211800 UTC
THREE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (36.7 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (123.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 161800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 161800UTC 17.4N 123.3E
MOVEMENT W 7KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 170600UTC 18.9N 122.4E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
24HR
POSITION 171800UTC 21.0N 121.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
36HR
POSITION 180600UTC 23.1N 121.1E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 181800UTC 25.0N 121.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 191800UTC 27.9N 120.8E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
96HR
POSITION 201800UTC 32.1N 121.1E WITHIN 200NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
120HR
POSITION 211800UTC 36.3N 122.4E WITHIN 260NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 33KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 17.7N 123.3E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 20.9N 122.0E 70NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 181800UTC 25.3N 121.6E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 191800UTC 28.8N 122.3E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 201800UTC 33.2N 123.0E 260NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 211800UTC 36.9N 124.6E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 17.7N 123.3E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 20.9N 122.0E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 181800UTC 25.3N 121.6E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 191800UTC 28.8N 122.3E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 161800
WARNING 161800.
WARNING VALID 171800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1905 DANAS (1905) 994 HPA
AT 17.7N 123.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 18.9N 122.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 20.9N 122.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 25.3N 121.6E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 28.8N 122.3E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 33.2N 123.0E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 36.9N 124.6E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 161645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 161500 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANAS (1905) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6
N) ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (123.4 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (122.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191500 UTC
TWO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (25.3 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201500 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (28.6 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 17.7N 123.4E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 21.0N 122.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 181200UTC 24.4N 121.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 191200UTC 27.9N 122.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 201200UTC 31.6N 122.2E 260NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 211200UTC 34.8N 122.4E 350NM 70%
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 17.7N 123.4E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 21.0N 122.5E 70NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 181200UTC 24.4N 121.7E 120NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 191200UTC 27.9N 122.1E 180NM 70%
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 161200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 17.7N, 123.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 17.7N, 123.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR UNTIL FT12 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.

=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 161345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 161200 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANAS (1905) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6
N) ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (123.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171200 UTC
ONE NINE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (19.2 N)
ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 191200 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (24.9 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201200 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (28.1 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 161200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 161200UTC 17.5N 124.0E
MOVEMENT WNW 13KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 170000UTC 18.3N 123.2E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 37KT
24HR
POSITION 171200UTC 19.7N 122.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 39KT
36HR
POSITION 180000UTC 21.4N 121.5E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT
48HR
POSITION 181200UTC 23.1N 121.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT
72HR
POSITION 191200UTC 27.1N 120.8E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 37KT
96HR
POSITION 201200UTC 30.6N 120.9E WITHIN 200NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 37KT
120HR
POSITION 211200UTC 35.0N 121.3E WITHIN 260NM
PRES/VMAX 1002HPA 35KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 17.7N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 20.5N 122.6E 70NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 181200UTC 24.4N 121.7E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 191200UTC 27.9N 122.1E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 201200UTC 31.6N 122.2E 260NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 211200UTC 34.8N 122.4E 350NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 17.7N 123.9E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 20.5N 122.6E 70NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 181200UTC 24.4N 121.7E 120NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 191200UTC 27.9N 122.1E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1905 DANAS (1905) 994 HPA
AT 17.7N 123.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 18.7N 123.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 20.5N 122.6E WITH 70 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 24.4N 121.7E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 27.9N 122.1E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 31.6N 122.2E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 34.8N 122.4E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 VHHH 161045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANAS (1905) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF
RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY.

AT 160900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION DANAS (1905) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3
N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC
ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N)
ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (121.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 190900 UTC
TWO FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (24.9 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (120.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC
TWO EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (28.1 N)
ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (120.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 17.6N 124.7E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 19.4N 123.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 180600UTC 22.1N 122.1E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 190600UTC 25.9N 122.5E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
93HF 200600UTC 29.9N 122.5E 260NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
117HF 210600UTC 33.0N 121.6E 350NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 17.6N 124.7E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 19.4N 123.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 180600UTC 22.1N 122.1E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
69HF 190600UTC 25.9N 122.5E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 160600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1
NAME 1905 DANAS
ANALYSIS
POSITION 160600UTC 17.0N 125.3E
MOVEMENT W 12KT
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
FORECAST
12HR
POSITION 161800UTC 17.5N 123.9E WITHIN 25NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 37KT
24HR
POSITION 170600UTC 18.9N 122.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT
36HR
POSITION 171800UTC 20.2N 122.1E WITHIN 75NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT
48HR
POSITION 180600UTC 21.9N 121.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT
72HR
POSITION 190600UTC 25.6N 120.8E WITHIN 140NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 37KT
96HR
POSITION 200600UTC 29.0N 120.8E WITHIN 200NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 35KT
120HR
POSITION 210600UTC 33.5N 121.2E WITHIN 260NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

>

Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 160600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 17.1N, 126.6E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(DANAS) STATUS. TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 17.1N, 125.7E. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 1905 DANAS (1905)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
A TD PREVIOUSLY LOCATED AT 17.1N, 126.6E HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS
(DANAS) STATUS. TS DANAS IS LOCATED AT 17.1N, 125.7E. INFORMATION
ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION
ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF LOWER SSTS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 17.1N 125.7E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 19.0N 123.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 180600UTC 22.1N 122.1E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 190600UTC 25.9N 122.5E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
96HF 200600UTC 29.9N 122.5E 260NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
120HF 210600UTC 33.0N 121.6E 350NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1905 DANAS (1905) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 17.1N 125.7E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 19.0N 123.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 180600UTC 22.1N 122.1E 120NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
72HF 190600UTC 25.9N 122.5E 180NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT =


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 160600
WARNING 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1905 DANAS (1905) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
994 HPA
AT 17.1N 125.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 17.8N 124.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 19.0N 123.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 22.1N 122.1E WITH 120 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 25.9N 122.5E WITH 180 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 29.9N 122.5E WITH 260 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 33.0N 121.6E WITH 350 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 141437
TCDEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 14 2019

FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E HAS BEEN PRODUCING ONLY SMALL
BURSTS OF CONVECTION FOR THE PAST 18 H OR SO. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING
OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATER AND INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS, SO
RE-DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS UNLIKELY. THUS, THE
SYSTEM IS BEING DOWNGRADED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
36 H AT THE LATEST, AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO.

THE MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 285/11 KT. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD CAUSE A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST LATER TODAY, WITH THIS GENERAL MOTION CONTINUING UNTIL
DISSIPATION.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW
PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND
ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/1500Z 18.4N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 15/0000Z 18.6N 117.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/1200Z 18.6N 119.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 141435
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 14 2019

...DEPRESSION DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 115.7W
ABOUT 485 MI...785 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOUR-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.7 WEST.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
13 MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AND A DECREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED ARE EXPECTED BY TONIGHT, WITH THIS MOTION CONTINUING ON
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MONDAY NIGHT.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON OVERNIGHT
OBSERVATIONS FROM CLARION ISLAND, MEXICO IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE, UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI, WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC, AND
ON THE WEB AT OCEAN.WEATHER.GOV/SHTML/NFDHSFEPI.PHP


..
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 141435
TCMEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019
1500 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.7W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.7W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 115.3W

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 18.6N 117.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 18.6N 119.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.5N 121.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 115.7W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT
LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.


$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 140925 CCA
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Four-E Advisory Number 7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042019
300 AM MDT Sun Jul 14 2019

Corrected headline

...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 114.8W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Four-E
was located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 114.8 West. The
depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22
km/h). A turn to the west is expected to occur later today or
tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts.
The depression is expected to weaken to a remnant low later today
and dissipate within a day or so thereafter.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.

$$
Forecaster Latto

>

Original Message :

WTPZ44 KNHC 140832
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019
300 AM MDT SUN JUL 14 2019

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION SINCE EARLY
SATURDAY EVENING. EVEN IN THE CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD, THE SYSTEM
HAS ONLY BEEN ABLE TO MUSTER INTERMITTENT INDIVIDUAL CELLS PRODUCING
ANVILS THAT ARE BEING SUBSEQUENTLY BLOWN WEST OF THE CIRCULATION BY
ABOUT 20 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWED
PEAK WINDS OF AROUND 25 KT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT, AND THIS IS
THE INITIAL ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE
CYCLONE IS NOT CONDUCIVE FOR ITS LONGEVITY AND IT WILL LIKELY BECOME
A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE MOTION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, OR 290/12 KT. A LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD CAUSE A TURN
TOWARD THE WEST LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST
IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS ONE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0900Z 18.2N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 15/0600Z 18.8N 118.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 15/1800Z 18.8N 120.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

..
FORECASTER LATTO/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ34 KNHC 140832
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019
300 AM MDT SUN JUL 14 2019

...DEPRESSION LIKELY TO WEAKEN INTO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY..


SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 114.8W
ABOUT 455 MI...730 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22
KM/H). A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH (45 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY
AND DISSIPATE WITHIN A DAY OR SO THEREAFTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB (29.74 INCHES).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.

..
FORECASTER LATTO/CANGIALOSI

>

Original Message :

WTPZ24 KNHC 140832
TCMEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042019
0900 UTC SUN JUL 14 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 114.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 114.2W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 18.5N 116.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 18.8N 118.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.8N 120.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 114.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

..
FORECASTER LATTO/CANGIALOSI

>