Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LILI-19
in Timor-Leste, Indonesia

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2019-05-10 20:59

WTXS51 PGTW 102100 RRA
WARNING    ATCG MIL 26S SIO 190510184419
2019051018 26S LILI       007  01 275 08 SATL 025
T000 092S 1277E 035 R034 000 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 090S 1266E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z --- NEAR 9.2S 127.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 127.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 9.0S 126.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 127.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM
    NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
    (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS

>

2019-05-10 20:33

WTXS31 PGTW 102100 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z --- NEAR 9.2S 127.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 127.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 9.0S 126.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 127.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
OTHER THAN A SINGLE DEEP CONVECTIVE AREA JUST SOUTH OF, AND
PARTIALLY OBSCURING, THE LLCC NO DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS AROUND THE

>

2019-05-10 20:31

WTXS51 PGTW 102100
WARNING    ATCG MIL 26S SIO 190510184419
2019051018 26S LILI       007  01 275 08 SATL 025
T000 092S 1277E 035 R034 000 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 000 NW QD
T012 090S 1266E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 007
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z --- NEAR 9.2S 127.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 127.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 9.0S 126.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 127.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET.//
2619050600  55S1299E  20
2619050606  57S1298E  20
2619050612  59S1297E  20
2619050618  60S1297E  20
2619050700  61S1296E  20
2619050706  63S1295E  20
2619050712  64S1292E  30
2619050718  65S1291E  30
2619050800  66S1290E  30
2619050806  71S1290E  30
2619050812  75S1291E  30
2619050818  78S1292E  30
2619050900  82S1292E  30
2619050906  87S1291E  40
2619050912  91S1291E  45
2619050918  94S1291E  45
2619051000  96S1290E  40
2619051006  94S1287E  35
2619051012  93S1285E  35
2619051018  92S1277E  35
NNNN

>

2019-05-10 20:29

WTXS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 007//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 007
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z --- NEAR 9.2S 127.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 127.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 9.0S 126.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 9.2S 127.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 273 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
(KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BECAUSE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS
PARTIALLY EXPOSED IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY.
OTHER THAN A SINGLE DEEP CONVECTIVE AREA JUST SOUTH OF, AND
PARTIALLY OBSCURING, THE LLCC NO DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS AROUND THE
CIRCULATION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
ABOVE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KTS) BASED ON A
101330Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWING A FEW 35-40 KT WIND BARBS UNDER THE
DEEP CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINAL WITH LOW (10-15 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE,
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT. TC
26S IS TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
THE DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY THE CONVECTION AND CAUSE THE
CYCLONE TO WEAKEN, WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST BY TAU 12. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, LENDING TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN

>

2019-05-10 14:37

WTXS51 PGTW 101500 RRA
WARNING    ATCG MIL 26S SIO 190510135250
2019051012 26S LILI       006  01 290 03 SATL 030
T000 093S 1285E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 091S 1275E 035 R034 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD
T024 090S 1264E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z --- NEAR 9.3S 128.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 128.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 9.1S 127.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-05-10 14:37

WTXS31 PGTW 101500 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z --- NEAR 9.3S 128.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 128.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 9.1S 127.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 9.0S 126.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:

>

2019-05-10 14:14

WTXS51 PGTW 101500
WARNING    ATCG MIL 26S SIO 190510135250
2019051012 26S LILI       006  01 290 03 SATL 030
T000 093S 1285E 035 R034 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 091S 1275E 035 R034 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD
T024 090S 1264E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z --- NEAR 9.3S 128.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 128.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 9.1S 127.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 9.0S 126.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 128.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.//
2619050600  55S1299E  20
2619050606  57S1298E  20
2619050612  59S1297E  20
2619050618  60S1297E  20
2619050700  61S1296E  20
2619050706  63S1295E  20
2619050712  64S1292E  30
2619050718  65S1291E  30
2619050800  66S1290E  30
2619050806  71S1290E  30
2619050812  75S1291E  30
2619050818  78S1292E  30
2619050900  82S1292E  30
2619050906  87S1291E  40
2619050912  91S1291E  45
2619050918  94S1291E  45
2619051000  96S1290E  40
2619051006  94S1288E  35
2619051012  93S1285E  35
NNNN

>

2019-05-10 14:13

WTXS31 PGTW 101500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 006
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101200Z --- NEAR 9.3S 128.5E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 128.5E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 9.1S 127.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 9.0S 126.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
101500Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 128.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 238 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 101248Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH ISOLATED DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT. OVERALL, THERE IS GOOD
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE EIR IMAGERY. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER
THAN THE PGTW/KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.0 (30
KNOTS) BASED ON THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS
EVIDENT IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN UPPER-
AIR SOUNDINGS IN THE VICINITY, WHICH SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE
MID- TO UPPER-LEVELS. TC LILI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS
IT TRACKS UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH, AND WILL TRACK OVER EAST
TIMOR NEAR TAU 24. TC 26S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z AND
110900Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-05-10 08:12

WTXS51 PGTW 100900 RRA
WARNING    ATCG MIL 26S SIO 190510070517
2019051006 26S LILI       005  01 270 02 SATL 030
T000 093S 1286E 035 R034 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 092S 1276E 035 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 090S 1263E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z --- NEAR 9.3S 128.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 128.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 9.2S 127.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

>

2019-05-10 08:04

WTXS31 PGTW 100900 RRA
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z --- NEAR 9.3S 128.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 128.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 9.2S 127.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 9.0S 126.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:

>

2019-05-10 08:03

WTXS51 PGTW 100900
WARNING    ATCG MIL 26S SIO 190510070517
2019051006 26S LILI       005  01 270 02 SATL 030
T000 093S 1286E 035 R034 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD
T012 092S 1276E 035 R034 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 020 NW QD
T024 090S 1263E 030
AMP 000HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 005
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z --- NEAR 9.3S 128.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 128.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 9.2S 127.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 9.0S 126.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 128.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.//
2619050600  55S1299E  20
2619050606  57S1298E  20
2619050612  59S1297E  20
2619050618  60S1297E  20
2619050700  61S1296E  20
2619050706  63S1295E  20
2619050712  64S1292E  30
2619050718  65S1291E  30
2619050800  66S1290E  30
2619050806  71S1290E  30
2619050812  75S1291E  30
2619050818  78S1292E  30
2619050900  82S1292E  30
2619050906  87S1291E  40
2619050912  91S1291E  45
2619050918  92S1290E  45
2619051000  93S1288E  40
2619051006  93S1286E  35
NNNN

>

2019-05-10 08:01

WTXS31 PGTW 100900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 005
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100600Z --- NEAR 9.3S 128.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.3S 128.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 9.2S 127.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 9.0S 126.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
100900Z POSITION NEAR 9.3S 128.3E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH RAPIDLY
DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION. A 100541Z GMI 37GHZ IMAGE REVEALS SHALLOW
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED CENTER, WHICH
SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. ADDITIONALLY,
THIS IMAGE PROVIDES SOLID EVIDENCE THAT THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED AND
TURNED WESTWARD AS FORECAST. BASED ON THE RAPID WEAKENING AND DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS), THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND MODERATE
POLEWARD OUTFLOW; HOWEVER, DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT IS EVIDENT IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AS WELL AS IN UPPER-AIR SOUNDINGS
IN THE VICINITY, WHICH SHOW SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN THE MID- TO UPPER-
LEVELS. TC LILI IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE WESTWARD AS IT TRACKS
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A STRONG LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ENTRENCHED TO THE SOUTH, AND WILL TRACK OVER EAST
TIMOR NEAR TAU 24. TC 26S WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 24 DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND INCREASED FRICTIONAL EFFECTS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z AND
110300Z.//
NNNN

>

2019-05-10 03:05

WTXS51 PGTW 100300 RRA
WARNING    ATCG MIL 26S SIO 190510022026
2019051000 26S LILI       004  01 180 05 SATL 050
T000 099S 1291E 040 R034 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 101S 1286E 035 R034 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD
T024 101S 1277E 035 R034 025 NE QD 070 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD
T036 102S 1267E 030
AMP
    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 129.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 129.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 10.1S 128.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

>

2019-05-10 02:48

WTXS51 PGTW 100300
WARNING    ATCG MIL 26S SIO 190510022026
2019051000 26S LILI       004  01 180 05 SATL 050
T000 099S 1291E 040 R034 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 101S 1286E 035 R034 025 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD
T024 101S 1277E 035 R034 025 NE QD 070 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD
T036 102S 1267E 030
AMP
    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 004
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI) WARNING NR 004
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   100000Z --- NEAR 9.9S 129.1E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 129.1E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   101200Z --- 10.1S 128.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   110000Z --- 10.1S 127.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   111200Z --- 10.2S 126.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
100300Z POSITION NEAR 10.0S 129.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 26S (LILI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 189 NM
NORTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.
//
2619050600  55S1299E  20
2619050606  57S1298E  20
2619050612  59S1297E  20
2619050618  60S1297E  20
2619050700  61S1296E  20
2619050706  63S1295E  20
2619050712  64S1292E  30
2619050718  65S1291E  30
2619050800  66S1290E  30
2619050806  71S1290E  30
2619050812  75S1291E  30
2619050818  78S1292E  30
2619050900  82S1292E  30
2619050906  87S1291E  35
2619050912  91S1290E  40
2619050918  94S1291E  45
2619051000  99S1291E  40
NNNN

>