Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for PHETHAI-18 in India from 15 Dec 2018 06:00 UTC to 17 Dec 2018 12:00 UTC

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Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for PHETHAI-18

in India

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

17/12 14:17 WTIO31PGTW171400

17/12 04:16 WTIO31PGTW170300COR

Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 171400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (PHETHAI) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
171200Z --- NEAR 17.3N 82.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
REPEAT POSIT: 17.3N 82.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.8N 82.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
171500Z POSITION NEAR 17.7N 82.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B (PHETHAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 65 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 171226Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE INDICATE RAPIDLY DECAYING
DEEP CONVECTION AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS POLEWARD OVER INDIA. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM VISAKHAPATNAM INDICATE SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS
WITH SLP NEAR 1008MB. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 30 KNOTS,
HEDGED BELOW DVORAK FINAL-T ESTIMATES OF 2.5 (35 KNOTS) AT 170900Z,
BASED ON RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND THE WEAK CONVECTIVE
STRUCTURE. TC 08B IS CURRENTLY TRACKING POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND IS BEGINNING TO ENCOUNTER
MODERATE TO HIGH (20 TO 25 KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP SHORTWAVE TROUGH POSITIONED OVER INDIA. TC
08B IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS INLAND OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A NORTHWARD TRACK
THROUGH TAU 12, HOWEVER, SOME MODELS INDICATE THE WEAK REMNANTS MAY
TRACK SOUTHWARD BACK OVER WATER AFTER TAU 12. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE RAPID DISSIPATION
OF THE SYSTEM AND LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS. THIS IS THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI.
THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
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Original Message :

WTIO31 PGTW 170300 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08B (PHETHAI) WARNING NR 008A CORRECTED
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 15.3N 82.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 82.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 16.9N 82.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 18.1N 82.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 15.7N 82.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 08B (PHETHAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM
SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO ERODE AS IT APPROACHED THE EAST
COAST OF INDIA. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) FEATURE IN THE EIR LOOP AND
LINED UP WITH DISCERNIBLE LLC FEATURES IN THE 161945Z AMSR AND
162253Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON AN
OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND
REFLECTS THE RAPIDLY WEAKENING STATE OF THE CYCLONE. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH
ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES. TC 08B
WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD THEN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST, MAKING
LANDFALL JUST BEFORE TAU 12 SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM. INTERACTION
WITH THE STRONG WESTERLIES IN ADDITION TO THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF
THE TERRAIN WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 24. MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK WHICH IS POSITIONED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 19 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.
2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CHANGED WEST COAST OF INDIA TO EAST
COAST OF INDIA IN REMARKS.//
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