Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for LUBAN-18
in Yemen

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

Click on the messages list to visualize on the right the detailed text.

2018-10-14 09:32

WTIO51 PGTW 140900 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181014061536

2018101406 05A LUBAN      026  01 295 07 SATL 020

T000 158N 0521E 030

T012 162N 0508E 020

AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 026

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   140600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 52.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 52.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   141800Z --- 16.2N 50.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 51.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM WEST-

SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON

WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR

SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25



2018-10-14 08:32

WTIO51 PGTW 140900

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181014061536

2018101406 05A LUBAN      026  01 295 07 SATL 020

T000 158N 0521E 030

T012 162N 0508E 020

AMP 000HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 026

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   140600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 52.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 52.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   141800Z --- 16.2N 50.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 51.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM WEST-

SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON

WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR

SIGNS OF REGENERATION.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101206 146N 574E  45

0518101212 146N 571E  45

0518101218 147N 565E  40

0518101300 148N 558E  40

0518101306 148N 553E  45

0518101312 149N 546E  45

0518101318 151N 537E  40

0518101400 155N 528E  35

0518101406 158N 521E  30

NNNN



2018-10-14 08:32

WTIO31 PGTW 140900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 026

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   140600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 52.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 52.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   141800Z --- 16.2N 50.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

140900Z POSITION NEAR 15.9N 51.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 136 NM WEST-

SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY SHOWS THE LARGE, RAGGED, AND PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER EASTERN YEMEN JUST NORTHEAST OF

HASWAYN. THE SYSTEM HAS REDUCED TO A 30-KNOT DEPRESSION INTENSITY AND

WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECAY AS IT TRACKS FURTHER INLAND INTO THE

RUGGED AND DRY TERRAIN. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY

THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY

MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//

NNNN



2018-10-14 03:32

WTIO51 PGTW 140300 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181014012011

2018101400 05A LUBAN      025  01 295 10 SATL 025

T000 155N 0528E 035 R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 070 NW QD

T012 160N 0512E 030

T024 164N 0500E 025

AMP

    012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 025

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   140000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 52.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 52.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   141200Z --- 16.0N 51.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   150000Z --- 16.4N 50.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

140300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 52.4E.



2018-10-14 03:32

WTIO51 PGTW 140300

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181014012011

2018101400 05A LUBAN      025  01 295 10 SATL 025

T000 155N 0528E 035 R034 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 070 NW QD

T012 160N 0512E 030

T024 164N 0500E 025

AMP

    012HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 025

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   140000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 52.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 52.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   141200Z --- 16.0N 51.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   150000Z --- 16.4N 50.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

140300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 52.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM

SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101206 146N 574E  45

0518101212 146N 571E  45

0518101218 147N 565E  40

0518101300 148N 558E  40

0518101306 148N 553E  45

0518101312 149N 546E  45

0518101318 151N 537E  40

0518101400 155N 528E  35

NNNN



2018-10-14 03:32

WTIO31 PGTW 140300 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 025

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   140000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 52.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 52.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   141200Z --- 16.0N 51.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   150000Z --- 16.4N 50.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

140300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 52.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM

SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS



2018-10-14 03:32

WTIO31 PGTW 140300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 025

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   140000Z --- NEAR 15.5N 52.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 10 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.5N 52.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   141200Z --- 16.0N 51.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   150000Z --- 16.4N 50.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

140300Z POSITION NEAR 15.6N 52.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM

SOUTHWEST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IS

BEING OBSCURED BY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS

LIMITED TO A RAIN BAND SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION

IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 140031Z GMI 37 GHZ

MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SUGGESTS THE LLCC IS IN A REGION OF COOLER

BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK

CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.5 (35 KTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW.

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINAL WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

AND GOOD OUTFLOW BEING OFFSET BY COOL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (27

CELSIUS) AND DRY AIR ENTRAINING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. TC 05A IS

TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

(STR). THE CYCLONE WILL REMAIN ON THIS TRACK UNTIL DISSIPATING

SHORTLY AFTER MAKING LANDFALL NORTH OF MUKALLA, YEMEN. WITH THE

EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM WHICH IS A SOUTHERN OUTLIER, NUMERICAL MODEL

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC

TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 14

FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-13 20:35

WTIO51 PGTW 132100 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181013193302

2018101318 05A LUBAN      024  01 275 09 SATL 025

T000 150N 0537E 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 085 NW QD

T012 154N 0521E 045 R034 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD

T024 159N 0505E 035

T036 164N 0496E 030

AMP

    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 024

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 024

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   131800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 53.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 53.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 15.4N 52.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS



2018-10-13 20:35

WTIO51 PGTW 132100

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181013193302

2018101318 05A LUBAN      024  01 275 09 SATL 025

T000 150N 0537E 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 085 NW QD

T012 154N 0521E 045 R034 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW QD 085 NW QD

T024 159N 0505E 035

T036 164N 0496E 030

AMP

    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 024

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 024

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   131800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 53.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 53.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 15.4N 52.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   141800Z --- 15.9N 50.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   150600Z --- 16.4N 49.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 53.3E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM SOUTH

OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101206 146N 574E  45

0518101212 146N 571E  45

0518101218 147N 565E  40

0518101300 148N 558E  40

0518101306 148N 553E  45

0518101312 149N 546E  45

0518101318 150N 537E  40

NNNN



2018-10-13 20:35

WTIO31 PGTW 132100 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 024

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   131800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 53.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 53.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 15.4N 52.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   141800Z --- 15.9N 50.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   150600Z --- 16.4N 49.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-10-13 20:35

WTIO31 PGTW 132100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 024

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   131800Z --- NEAR 15.0N 53.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 53.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 15.4N 52.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   141800Z --- 15.9N 50.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   150600Z --- 16.4N 49.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

132100Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 53.3E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 122 NM

SOUTH OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY

SHOWS A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH

DEEP CONVECTION TO THE SOUTH AND A SMALL POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION

WELL TO THE NORTH, ALONG THE COAST OF OMAN. A 131755Z AMSU 89 GHZ

MICROWAVE IMAGE WAS USED TO IDENTIFY THE LOCATION OF THE LLCC WITH

FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES

OF T2.5-T3.0 (35-45 KTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. TC 05A IS TRACKING

ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND

WILL REMAIN ON THIS TRACK UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL NORTH OF MUKALLA,

YEMEN JUST AFTER TAU 12. AFTERWARD, THE TRACK WILL TURN WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD AS THE CYCLONE BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. LOW (05-

15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (27-28 CELSIUS) SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME

INTENSIFICATION PRIOR TO LANDFALL BUT LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN

THE INTENSITY TO 30 KNOTS BY TAU 36. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM

WHICH DEPICTS A WESTWARD TRACK, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT

AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS

AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-13 16:33

WTIO51 PGTW 131500 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181013124228

2018101312 05A LUBAN      023  01 280 07 SATL 055

T000 149N 0544E 045 R034 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 100 NW QD

T012 151N 0527E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034

    090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD

T024 153N 0509E 045 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD

T036 157N 0497E 030

AMP

    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 023

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   131200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 54.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 54.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 15.1N 52.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-13 16:33

WTIO31 PGTW 131500 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 023

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   131200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 54.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 54.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 15.1N 52.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   141200Z --- 15.3N 50.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-10-13 14:33

WTIO51 PGTW 131500

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181013124228

2018101312 05A LUBAN      023  01 280 07 SATL 055

T000 149N 0544E 045 R034 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW QD 100 NW QD

T012 151N 0527E 050 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD

T024 153N 0509E 045 R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD

T036 157N 0497E 030

AMP

    024HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    036HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 023

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   131200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 54.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 54.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 15.1N 52.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   141200Z --- 15.3N 50.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   150000Z --- 15.7N 49.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 54.0E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 127 NM SOUTH

OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101206 146N 574E  45

0518101212 146N 571E  45

0518101218 147N 565E  40

0518101300 148N 558E  40

0518101306 148N 551E  45

0518101312 149N 544E  45

NNNN



2018-10-13 14:33

WTIO31 PGTW 131500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 023

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   131200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 54.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 54.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 15.1N 52.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   141200Z --- 15.3N 50.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   150000Z --- 15.7N 49.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 54.0E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 127 NM SOUTH

OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX

HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS RAIN

BANDS CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND SWEEP ACROSS OMAN AND EASTERN YEMEN.

TRANSVERSE BANDS SHARPLY OUTLINE THE NORTHERN CIRRUS STEAKS, AN

INDICATION OF STRONG WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL POSITION IS CENTERED

WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON A LARGE, RAGGED, AND PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION, EVIDENT IN THE MSI LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED

ON THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW. TC 05A IS TRACKING

ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

(STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL ACCELERATE ON A GENERALLY

WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL EAST-NORTHEAST OF MUKALLA,

YEMEN AROUND TAU 20. LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND

WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FUEL A SMALL

WINDOW OF SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION UP TO 50 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT 12

HOURS. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS AND INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED AND

DRY TERRAIN OF YEMEN WILL RAPIDLY ERODE TC LUBAN DOWN TO 30 KNOTS BY

TAU 36. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH

CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z,

140900Z AND 141500Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-13 09:32

WTIO51 PGTW 130900 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181013071150

2018101306 05A LUBAN      022  01 270 07 SATL 025

T000 148N 0551E 045 R034 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD

T012 148N 0535E 050 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD

T024 150N 0517E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034

    080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD

T036 152N 0501E 045 R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD

T048 159N 0491E 030

AMP

    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 022

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   130600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 55.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 55.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 14.8N 53.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-13 09:32

WTIO31 PGTW 130900 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 022

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   130600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 55.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 55.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 14.8N 53.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 15.0N 51.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-13 08:32

WTIO51 PGTW 130900

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181013071150

2018101306 05A LUBAN      022  01 270 07 SATL 025

T000 148N 0551E 045 R034 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 095 SW QD 105 NW QD

T012 148N 0535E 050 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD

T024 150N 0517E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD

T036 152N 0501E 045 R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD

T048 159N 0491E 030

AMP

    036HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    048HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 022

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   130600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 55.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 55.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 14.8N 53.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 15.0N 51.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   141800Z --- 15.2N 50.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   150600Z --- 15.9N 49.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

130900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 54.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS

21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101206 146N 574E  45

0518101212 146N 571E  45

0518101218 147N 565E  40

0518101300 148N 558E  40

0518101306 148N 551E  45

NNNN



2018-10-13 08:32

WTIO31 PGTW 130900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 022

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   130600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 55.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 55.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 14.8N 53.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 15.0N 51.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   141800Z --- 15.2N 50.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   150600Z --- 15.9N 49.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

130900Z POSITION NEAR 14.8N 54.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 144 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

SHOWS RAIN BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY, HAVE STARTED TO

RE-CONSOLIDATE AND WRAP TIGHTER INTO A PARTLY-EXPOSED, BROAD, AND

RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS CENTERED

ON THE LLC WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON

THE DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/45KTS FROM PGTW AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT

IMPROVEMENT IN THE SYSTEM. TC 05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN

PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE

EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL CONTINUE ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL

IT MAKES LANDFALL EAST-NORTHEAST OF MUKALLA, YEMEN NEAR TAU 30.

AFTERWARD, IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AND TRACK MORE POLEWARD.

LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS)

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL FUEL A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION UP TO 55

KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL. AFTERWARD, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED AND DRY

TERRAIN OF YEMEN AND INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE TC LUBAN,

LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT

AGREEMENT, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS

AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-13 03:32

WTIO51 PGTW 130300 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181013012028

2018101300 05A LUBAN      021  01 270 07 SATL 030

T000 146N 0557E 040 R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD

T012 146N 0542E 045 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 095 NW QD

T024 147N 0525E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD

T036 150N 0507E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034

    100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD

T048 154N 0494E 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034

    100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD

T072 165N 0480E 030

AMP

    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 021

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   130000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 55.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 55.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 14.6N 54.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT



2018-10-13 03:32

WTIO51 PGTW 130300

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181013012028

2018101300 05A LUBAN      021  01 270 07 SATL 030

T000 146N 0557E 040 R034 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD

T012 146N 0542E 045 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 095 NW QD

T024 147N 0525E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 100 NW QD

T036 150N 0507E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD

T048 154N 0494E 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 010 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD

T072 165N 0480E 030

AMP

    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 021

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   130000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 55.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 55.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 14.6N 54.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 14.7N 52.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   141200Z --- 15.0N 50.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   150000Z --- 15.4N 49.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   160000Z --- 16.5N 48.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 55.3E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101206 146N 574E  45

0518101212 146N 571E  45

0518101218 146N 564E  40

0518101300 146N 557E  40

NNNN



2018-10-13 03:32

WTIO31 PGTW 130300 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 021

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   130000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 55.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 55.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 14.6N 54.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 14.7N 52.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-13 03:32

WTIO31 PGTW 130300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 021

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   130000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 55.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 55.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 14.6N 54.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 14.7N 52.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   141200Z --- 15.0N 50.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   150000Z --- 15.4N 49.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   160000Z --- 16.5N 48.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

130300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 55.3E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 171 NM

SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE

IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION, PRIMARILY ISOLATED TO A

RAIN BAND NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH

FAIR CONFIDENCE BY EXTRAPOLATING FROM A 122218Z AMSR2 36 GHZ

MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS WEAK BANDING NEAR THE LLCC. THE INITIAL

40 KNOT INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY

ESTIMATES OF T2.5-3.0 (35-45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. THE

SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR (5-15 KNOTS) AND WEAK RADIAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 27-28 CELSIUS BUT WARMS TO 29-30 CELSIUS ALONG

THE COAST OF YEMEN. TC 05A IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY

OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CYCLONE

WILL REMAIN ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK UNTIL MAKING LANDFALL,

NORTH OF MUKALLA, YEMEN AROUND TAU 36. DURING THAT PERIOD, WARM

COASTAL WATERS AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW TC

05A TO INTENSIFY TO 60 KTS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL, THE

CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS AROUND THE STR AXIS AND THE

INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO FALL TO 30 KTS INTENSITY BY TAU 72. DYNAMIC

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 36. AFTER TAU

36, THE MODEL TRACKS BEGIN TO SPREAD DUE TO SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN

THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE STR AXIS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST

LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE THROUGH TAU

36 AND FAIR CONFIDENCE AFTERWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

130000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND

140300Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-12 21:47

WTIO51 PGTW 122100 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181012200020

2018101218 05A LUBAN      020  01 270 07 SATL 030

T000 146N 0564E 040 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 100 NW QD

T012 145N 0551E 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 105 NW QD

T024 146N 0535E 045 R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD

T036 147N 0515E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    110 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD

T048 151N 0499E 055 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034

    080 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD

T072 160N 0480E 030

AMP

    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 020

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 020

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   121800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 56.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 56.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 14.5N 55.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-10-12 21:47

WTIO31 PGTW 122100 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 020

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   121800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 56.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 56.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 14.5N 55.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 14.6N 53.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-12 21:35

WTIO51 PGTW 122100

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181012200020

2018101218 05A LUBAN      020  01 270 07 SATL 030

T000 146N 0564E 040 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 065 SW QD 100 NW QD

T012 145N 0551E 040 R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 105 NW QD

T024 146N 0535E 045 R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 110 NW QD

T036 147N 0515E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD

T048 151N 0499E 055 R050 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD

T072 160N 0480E 030

AMP

    048HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    072HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 020

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 020

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   121800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 56.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 56.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 14.5N 55.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 14.6N 53.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 14.7N 51.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   141800Z --- 15.1N 49.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   151800Z --- 16.0N 48.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 56.1E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z AND 132100Z.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101206 146N 574E  45

0518101212 146N 571E  45

0518101218 146N 564E  40

NNNN



2018-10-12 21:35

WTIO31 PGTW 122100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 020

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   121800Z --- NEAR 14.6N 56.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 56.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 14.5N 55.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 14.6N 53.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 14.7N 51.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   141800Z --- 15.1N 49.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   151800Z --- 16.0N 48.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

122100Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 56.1E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 196 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE

IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED, BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED CENTRAL CONVECTION AND DEEP CONVECTION

LIMITED TO A RAIN BAND NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS

PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BY USING A 121713Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE

IMAGE TO IDENTIFY WEAK BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE LLCC. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS HEDGED JUST BELOW DVORAK CURRENT

INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES TO REFLECT

THE DECAYING CONVECTION. TC 05A REMAINS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 15 KNOTS) AND WEAK

POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE

IS AROUND 27-28 CELSIUS BUT SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND LOW OCEAN HEAT

CONTENT HAS ALLOWED FOR COOL UPWELLING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE

WEAKENING THE CYCLONE HAS EXPERIENCED. TC 05A IS LOCATED TO THE

SOUTH OF A WEAKNESS IN AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)

AND HAS ACCELERATED BY 4 KTS IN THE LAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS

FORECASTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36, BEGIN

TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD, AND MAKE LANDFALL NORTH OF MUKALLA,

YEMEN JUST PRIOR TO TAU 48. ONCE OVER LAND, TC 05A SHOULD QUICKLY

DISSIPATE TO 30 KTS BY TAU 72. WARMER SST NEAR THE COAST AND

FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TC 05A TO INTENSIFY

TO 55 KTS BEFORE LANDFALL. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD

AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 48 BUT SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE INCREASES AS THE

CYCLONE BEGINS ROUNDING THE STR AXIS. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST LIES

CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO INCREASING

SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AFTER TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

AT 121800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z

AND 132100Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-12 15:32

WTIO51 PGTW 121500 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181012133912

2018101212 05A LUBAN      019  01 270 03 SATL 040

T000 146N 0571E 045 R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 110 NW QD

T012 145N 0561E 045 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 140 NW QD

T024 144N 0546E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 150 NW QD

T036 146N 0527E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034

    120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 149N 0508E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    110 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD

T072 162N 0487E 035

T096 173N 0481E 025

AMP

    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 019

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 019

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   121200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 14.5N 56.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT



2018-10-12 15:32

WTIO51 PGTW 121500

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181012133912

2018101212 05A LUBAN      019  01 270 03 SATL 040

T000 146N 0571E 045 R034 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 075 SW QD 110 NW QD

T012 145N 0561E 045 R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 140 NW QD

T024 144N 0546E 050 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 150 NW QD

T036 146N 0527E 055 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 149N 0508E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD

T072 162N 0487E 035

T096 173N 0481E 025

AMP

    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 019

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 019

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   121200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 14.5N 56.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 14.4N 54.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 14.6N 52.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   141200Z --- 14.9N 50.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   151200Z --- 16.2N 48.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   161200Z --- 17.3N 48.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

121500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 56.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101206 146N 574E  45

0518101212 146N 571E  45

NNNN



2018-10-12 15:32

WTIO31 PGTW 121500 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 019

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   121200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 14.5N 56.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 14.4N 54.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-12 15:32

WTIO31 PGTW 121500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 019

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   121200Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 14.5N 56.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 14.4N 54.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 14.6N 52.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   141200Z --- 14.9N 50.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   151200Z --- 16.2N 48.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   161200Z --- 17.3N 48.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

121500Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 56.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 225 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC

05A HAS A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WHICH HAS BECOME

PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS. THE INITIAL

POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 121118Z

37GHZ SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE BROAD NATURE OF THE LLCC

WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY

(CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.0 (45 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL

ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05A IS STILL EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL

WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS WEAK POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 28

DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 05A REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL

RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST. THE STR TO

THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD, ELONGATE, AND BECOME THE

DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. TC 05A WILL TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE

SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. AS TC 05A TRACKS WESTWARD

IT WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

ALONG THE COAST AND CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR. THESE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MINOR

INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL WITH TC 05A RE-INTENSIFYING TO 60

KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER LANDFALL TC 05A WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF

THE STR AND TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. ONCE INLAND, TC 05A WILL QUICKLY

DISSIPATE AND REACH AND INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING A WESTWARD TRACK

THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE A NORTHWESTWARD TURN. DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT

IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC

FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 21

FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z, 130900Z AND 131500Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-12 09:32

WTIO51 PGTW 120900 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181012074259

2018101206 05A LUBAN      018  02 270 03 SATL 045

T000 146N 0574E 050 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    095 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 125 NW QD

T012 146N 0565E 050 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 140 NW QD

T024 145N 0551E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 150 NW QD

T036 146N 0534E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034

    130 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 149N 0517E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    130 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD

T072 161N 0488E 040

T096 176N 0479E 025

AMP

    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 018

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 018

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   120600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT



2018-10-12 09:32

WTIO51 PGTW 120900

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181012074259

2018101206 05A LUBAN      018  02 270 03 SATL 045

T000 146N 0574E 050 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 095 SE QD 090 SW QD 125 NW QD

T012 146N 0565E 050 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 140 NW QD

T024 145N 0551E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 150 NW QD

T036 146N 0534E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 149N 0517E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD

T072 161N 0488E 040

T096 176N 0479E 025

AMP

    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 018

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 018

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   120600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   121800Z --- 14.6N 56.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 14.5N 55.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 14.6N 53.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 14.9N 51.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   150600Z --- 16.1N 48.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   160600Z --- 17.6N 47.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

120900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 57.2E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z, 130300Z AND 130900Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101118 145N 578E  60

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101200 146N 577E  50

0518101206 146N 574E  50

0518101206 146N 574E  50

NNNN



2018-10-12 09:32

WTIO31 PGTW 120900 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 018

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   120600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   121800Z --- 14.6N 56.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-12 09:32

WTIO31 PGTW 120900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 018

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   120600Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.4E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.4E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   121800Z --- 14.6N 56.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 14.5N 55.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 14.6N 53.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 14.9N 51.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   150600Z --- 16.1N 48.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   160600Z --- 17.6N 47.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

120900Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 57.2E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 239 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC

05A HAS A LARGE RAGGED EYE FEATURE WITH AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION

ROTATING AROUND IT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR

CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON A 120528Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH

SHOWS THE POORLY DEFINED EYE FEATURE WITH AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION

LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS BASED

ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) FROM

PGTW AND KNES AND HEDGED SLIGHTLY ABOVE A 120228Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF

41 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TC 05A IS EXPERIENCING

FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS WEAK POLEWARD

AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN

FAVORABLE, NEAR 28 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 05A REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN

TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE

NORTHEAST. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND BECOME

THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE. TC 05A WILL TRACK TOWARD THE WEST

ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STEERING STR. AS TC 05A

TRACKS WESTWARD IT WILL EVENTUALLY ENCOUNTER SLIGHTLY WARMER SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST. THESE WARMER SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW FOR A PERIOD OF MINOR INTENSIFICATION BEFORE

LANDFALL WITH TC 05A RE-INTENSIFYING TO 60 KNOTS BY TAU 48. AFTER

LANDFALL TC 05A WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND TRACK TO

THE NORTHWEST. ONCE INLAND, TC 05A WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND REACH

25 KNOTS BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT

INDICATING WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 48 BEFORE A NORTHWESTWARD TURN.

DUE TO THE GOOD AGREEMENT IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS HIGH

CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 120600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 121500Z, 122100Z,

130300Z AND 130900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNINGS

(WTIO32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//

NNNN



2018-10-12 03:31

WTIO51 PGTW 120300

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181012013259

2018101200 05A LUBAN      017  02 290 03 SATL 060

T000 146N 0576E 050 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 105 NW QD

T012 147N 0568E 050 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD

T024 147N 0556E 055 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD

T036 147N 0541E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 148N 0524E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 157N 0494E 040

T096 176N 0483E 020

AMP

    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 017

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 017

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   120000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   121200Z --- 14.7N 56.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 14.7N 55.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 14.7N 54.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 14.8N 52.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   150000Z --- 15.7N 49.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   160000Z --- 17.6N 48.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 57.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101118 145N 579E  65

0518101118 145N 579E  65

0518101118 145N 579E  65

0518101200 146N 576E  50

0518101200 146N 576E  50

NNNN



2018-10-12 03:31

WTIO31 PGTW 120300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 017//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 017

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   120000Z --- NEAR 14.6N 57.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.6N 57.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   121200Z --- 14.7N 56.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 14.7N 55.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 14.7N 54.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 14.8N 52.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   150000Z --- 15.7N 49.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   160000Z --- 17.6N 48.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

120300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 57.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 248 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY REVEALS A SYSTEM WHICH HAS RAPIDLY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS WITH A BROAD LLCC, WHICH, WHILE STILL WELL DEFINED, IS

LACKING MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION, WITH LIMITED SHALLOW

CONVECTION CONFINED TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE

INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BROAD

AND SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED NATURE OF THE LLCC. AN 112136Z AMSR2 36

GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE ASSISTED IN PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER, AND

DEPICTED A WELL DEFINED LOW EMISSIVITY REGION DEFINING THE LLCC. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANTLY LOWERED FROM THE PREVIOUS

ESTIMATE AND IS NOW ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS, BASED OFF THE PGTW DVORAK

INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (50 KNOTS), A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 58 KNOTS

AND AN AUTOMATED DVORAK OF T3.3 (50 KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS

REVEALS THAT TC 05A IS TRACKING THROUGH AN AREA WITH LOW VWS (5-10

KNOTS), IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10

KNOTS), STRONG EQUATORWARD AND WEAK POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES REMAIN MARGINAL AT 27 TO 28 DEG C, BUT OHC IS LOW. AS

THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR SOME TIME OVER THIS AREA IT

HAS DRAWN COOLER WATERS TO THE SURFACE AND CHOKED OFF ITS ENERGY

SUPPLY, OFFSETTING THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS

AND LEADING TO THE RAPID WEAKENING. TC 05A IS SLOWLY TRACKING

WESTWARD IN A WEAK STEERING PATTER BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES

(STRS) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST. OVER THE NEXT 12

TO 24 HOURS THE SYSTEM WILL START TO ACCELERATE TOWARDS THE WEST AS

THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SAUDI ARABIA WILL BUILD TOWARDS THE

EAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE YEMENI COAST

EAST OF MUKALLA AROUND TAU 60 AND AFTER LANDFALL TRACK INLAND WHILE

MAKING A SLOW TURN TOWARDS THE NORTH AS IT ROUNDS THE STR AXIS. TC

05A IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 12

HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DRIFT WESTWARD OVER THE UPWELLED

COOLER WATERS. A SHORT PERIOD OF WEAK INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR

BETWEEN TAU 24 AND LANDFALL AS THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE COOL SST

POOL AND INTO WARMER WATERS ALONG THE COASTLINE, WHILE STILL

EXPERIENCING LOW VWS AND MODERATE OUTFLOW. AFTER LANDFALL, THE

SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 96 DUE TO LAND

INTERACTION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE

PREVIOUS MODEL RUN, WITH NO SIGNIFICANT SHIFT IN THE MULTIMODEL

CONSENSUS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH A

SPREAD OF ONLY 90NM AT TAU 48, WITH A TIGHT GROUPING NEAR THE

CONSENSUS TRACK. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK REMAINS ESSENTIALLY

UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK, AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS

WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS

24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120900Z, 121500Z, 122100Z AND 130300Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) FOR THE FINAL WARNING (WTIO32

PGTW) ON THAT SYSTEM.//

NNNN



2018-10-11 20:33

WTIO51 PGTW 112100 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181011193000

2018101118 05A LUBAN      016  02 270 01 SATL 060

T000 145N 0578E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050

    055 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD

    125 SW QD 115 NW QD

T012 146N 0572E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034

    120 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 170 NW QD

T024 146N 0562E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034

    120 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 160 NW QD

T036 147N 0548E 060 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    130 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 150 NW QD

T048 148N 0531E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    130 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 156N 0500E 045 R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD

T096 171N 0486E 030

AMP

    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 016

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 016

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   111800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-11 20:33

WTIO51 PGTW 112100

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181011193000

2018101118 05A LUBAN      016  02 270 01 SATL 060

T000 145N 0578E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 005 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 125 SW QD 115 NW QD

T012 146N 0572E 060 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 170 NW QD

T024 146N 0562E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW QD 160 NW QD

T036 147N 0548E 060 R050 040 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 150 NW QD

T048 148N 0531E 060 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 156N 0500E 045 R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD

T096 171N 0486E 030

AMP

    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 016

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 016

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   111800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 57.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 14.6N 57.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   121800Z --- 14.6N 56.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 14.7N 54.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 14.8N 53.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   141800Z --- 15.6N 50.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   151800Z --- 17.1N 48.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

112100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 57.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z, 121500Z AND 122100Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101118 145N 578E  65

0518101118 145N 578E  65

0518101118 145N 578E  65

NNNN



2018-10-11 20:33

WTIO31 PGTW 112100 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 016

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   111800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 57.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 14.6N 57.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-11 20:33

WTIO31 PGTW 112100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 016

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   111800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.8E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 01 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 57.8E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 14.6N 57.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   121800Z --- 14.6N 56.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 14.7N 54.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 14.8N 53.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   141800Z --- 15.6N 50.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   151800Z --- 17.1N 48.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

112100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 57.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY

SHOWS TC 05A REMAINS ORGANIZED WITH SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE

CENTER, AND THERE IS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION FLARING TO THE SOUTH.

THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE ON THE EIR

IMAGERY AND A MICROWAVE EYE IN 111331Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY

(CI) ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW, AND IS BELOW THE KNES

ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC

05A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS)

AND HAS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ALONG WITH A MODERATE

EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN

FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. HOWEVER, OCEAN HEAT

CONTENT IS UNFAVORABLE, AND TC 05A IS MOVING SLOWLY, DRAWING

MARGINAL ENERGY FROM THE OCEAN WHERE IT HAS ALREADY CAUSED COLD

WATER TO UPWELL FROM BELOW THE MIXED LAYER. ADDITIONALLY, TC 05A IS

ENTRAINING DRY AIR FROM THE ARABIAN PENINSULA, WHICH IS ALSO

LIMITING SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION. TC 05A IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD

AND REMAINS POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED

TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL

CONTINUE TO BUILD AND EXTEND, ALLOWING TC 05A TO TRACK WESTWARD

ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND ACCELERATE AFTER TAU

24. TC 05A WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY IN INITIAL TAUS THEN INTENSITY WILL

HOLD CONSTANT AT 60 KTS THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT BEGINS TO MOVE QUICKLY

AND CAN USE THE SUPERFICIAL SURFACE MIXED LAYER OF WARM SSTS FOR

FUEL. THE WARM SSTS, LOW VWS, AND MODERATE OUTFLOW WILL COMPETE WITH

DRY AIR TO MAINTAIN THE INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 48. AFTERWARDS,

DIMINISHING OUTFLOW, THE DRY AIR, AND LAND INTERACTION WILL WEAKEN

THE SYSTEM FURTHER. TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72

WITH AN INTENSITY NEAR 45 KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 05A WILL ROUND

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND

DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE MULTIMODEL

CONSENSUS REMAINED IN CONSISTENT LOCATIONS FROM THE PREVIOUS RUN.

FROM TAU 24 TO 72, MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 05A WILL

TRACK WESTWARD WITH A 190NM SPREAD AT THE TIME OF LANDFALL DUE TO

THE COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM) MODEL DIVERGING UNREALISTICALLY TO THE SOUTH.

PREVIOUS OUTLIERS ECMWF AND NAVGEM HAVE CONVERGED TOWARDS THE MULTI-

MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER TAU 72, MODELS AGREE THAT TC 05A WILL TURN

NORTHWESTWARD AND ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR, BUT VARY IN THE

EXACT LOCATION OF RECURVATURE. THERE IS A MODEL SPREAD OF 432 NM BY

TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MULTIMODEL

CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW

CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 111800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 120300Z, 120900Z,

121500Z AND 122100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) FOR THE

FINAL WARNING (WTIO32 PGTW) ON THAT SYSTEM.//

NNNN



2018-10-11 15:34

WTIO51 PGTW 111500 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181011132836

2018101112 05A LUBAN      015  02 270 02 SATL 040

T000 145N 0579E 065 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD

    115 SW QD 140 NW QD

T012 146N 0574E 060 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD

T024 147N 0566E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    100 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD

T036 147N 0554E 060 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 149N 0538E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    120 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 155N 0504E 045 R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD

T096 171N 0487E 030

AMP

    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 015

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 015

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   111200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.9E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-11 15:34

WTIO51 PGTW 111500

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181011132836

2018101112 05A LUBAN      015  02 270 02 SATL 040

T000 145N 0579E 065 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 115 SW QD 140 NW QD

T012 146N 0574E 060 R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD

T024 147N 0566E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 140 NW QD

T036 147N 0554E 060 R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 149N 0538E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 155N 0504E 045 R034 100 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD

T096 171N 0487E 030

AMP

    072HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    096HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 015

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 015

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   111200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.9E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 57.9E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 14.6N 57.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   121200Z --- 14.7N 56.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 14.7N 55.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 14.9N 53.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   141200Z --- 15.5N 50.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   151200Z --- 17.1N 48.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

111500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 57.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

0518101112 145N 579E  65

NNNN



2018-10-11 15:34

WTIO31 PGTW 111500 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 015

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   111200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.9E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 57.9E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 14.6N 57.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-11 15:34

WTIO31 PGTW 111500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 015

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   111200Z --- NEAR 14.5N 57.9E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 57.9E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 14.6N 57.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   121200Z --- 14.7N 56.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 14.7N 55.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 14.9N 53.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   141200Z --- 15.5N 50.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   151200Z --- 17.1N 48.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

111500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 57.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 266 NM

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC

05A REMAINS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM AND THAT DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE

LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) REMAINS SPARSE. THE INITIAL

POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON AN 110922Z

36GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A LARGE AND RAGGED MICROWAVE

EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS IS BASED ON A DVORAK

CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) FROM PGTW.

ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 05A IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS A GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW

CHANNEL ALONG WITH A MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES

CELSIUS. TC 05A IS SLOWLY TRACKING WESTWARD AND REMAINS POSITIONED

BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STRS) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND

THE NORTHEAST. THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND

ELONGATE AND ALLOW TC 05A TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN

PERIPHERY. AS TC 05A TRACKS WESTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGHOUT THE

ENTIRE FORECAST WITH INTENSITY REMAINING CONSTANT BETWEEN TAU 12 AND

TAU 36. TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL SHORTLY BEFORE TAU 72 WITH AN

INTENSITY NEAR 50 KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 05A WILL ROUND THE

WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND

DISSIPATE BY TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS RELATIVELY

UNCHANGED AND DIVERGES FROM THE INITIAL POSITION TO TAU 24 WITH A

SPREAD OF 74 NM WITH AFUM INDICATING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND NVGM

INDICATING A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. FROM TAU 24 TO 72 MODELS ARE IN

GOOD AGREEMENT THAT TC 05A WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH A 100NM SPREAD AT

THE TIME OF LANDFALL. AFTER TAU 72 MODELS AGREE THAT TC 05A WILL TURN

NORTHWESTWARD AND ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. HOWEVER, THERE

IS A MODEL SPREAD OF 195 NM BY TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK

REMAINS SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY

FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE

THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT

112100Z, 120300Z, 120900Z AND 121500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B

(TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT

SYSTEM.//

NNNN



2018-10-11 09:32

WTIO51 PGTW 110900 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181011075752

2018101106 05A LUBAN      014  02 270 02 SATL 045

T000 145N 0581E 070 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD

    100 SW QD 105 NW QD

T012 145N 0577E 065 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD

    100 SW QD 115 NW QD

T024 146N 0570E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD

    100 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 147N 0561E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034

    110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD

T048 148N 0545E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034

    110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 152N 0511E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034

    100 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD

T096 165N 0489E 035

T120 183N 0486E 025

AMP

    096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 014

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 014

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   110600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT



2018-10-11 09:32

WTIO51 PGTW 110900

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181011075752

2018101106 05A LUBAN      014  02 270 02 SATL 045

T000 145N 0581E 070 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 105 NW QD

T012 145N 0577E 065 R064 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 100 SW QD 115 NW QD

T024 146N 0570E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 147N 0561E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD

T048 148N 0545E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 152N 0511E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD

T096 165N 0489E 035

T120 183N 0486E 025

AMP

    096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 014

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 014

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   110600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 14.5N 57.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 14.6N 57.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   121800Z --- 14.7N 56.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 14.8N 54.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 15.2N 51.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   150600Z --- 16.5N 48.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   160600Z --- 18.3N 48.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

110900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.0E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z, 120300Z AND 120900Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101100 145N 583E  75

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

0518101106 145N 581E  70

NNNN



2018-10-11 09:32

WTIO31 PGTW 110900 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 014

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   110600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 14.5N 57.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-11 09:32

WTIO31 PGTW 110900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 014

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   110600Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 14.5N 57.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 14.6N 57.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   121800Z --- 14.7N 56.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 14.8N 54.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 15.2N 51.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   150600Z --- 16.5N 48.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   160600Z --- 18.3N 48.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

110900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.0E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TC

05A IS A SYMMETRIC SYSTEM BUT HAS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION AROUND THE

LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED

WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE AND IS BASED ON AN 110548Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE

IMAGE WHICH SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF DEEP CONVECTION AROUND LLCC.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS HEDGED BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT

INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND KNES, AN

110547Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS, AND AN ADT CI OF T4.1 (67

KNOTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 05A IS EXPERIENCING

FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS) AND HAS GOOD POLEWARD

AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN

FAVORABLE, BETWEEN 28 AND 29 DEGREES CELSIUS. TC 05A IS SLOWLY

TRACKING WESTWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES

(STRS) LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHEAST. THE STR TO THE

NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND ELONGATE AND ALLOW TC 05A TO

TRACK WESTWARD ALONG ITS SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. AS TC 05A TRACKS

WESTWARD IT WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND

SLIGHTLY COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A

GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL AT TAU 72

WITH AN INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS. AFTER LANDFALL, TC 05A WILL ROUND THE

WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AND BEGIN TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND

EVENTUALLY NORTHWARD AND DISSIPATE BY TAU 120. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE

DIVERGES FROM THE INITIAL POSITION TO TAU 24 WITH A SPREAD OF 77 NM

WITH AFUM INDICATING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND NVGM INDICATING A

SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK. FROM TAU 24 TO 72 MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT

THAT TC 05A WILL TRACK WESTWARD. AFTER TAU 72 MODELS AGREE THAT TC

05A WILL ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. HOWEVER, THERE IS A MODEL

SPREAD OF 290 NM BY TAU 120. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED

SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS, SLIGHTLY FAVORING

THE ECMWF SOLUTION. DUE TO THE WIDE SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE THERE IS

LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 110600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 111500Z, 112100Z,

120300Z AND 120900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNINGS

(WTIO32 PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.//

NNNN



2018-10-11 03:39

WTIO51 PGTW 110300 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181011014710

2018101100 05A LUBAN      013  02 270 04 SATL 030

T000 145N 0581E 075 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD

    115 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 146N 0576E 070 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD

    120 SW QD 135 NW QD

T024 146N 0570E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034

    120 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 147N 0561E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034

    110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD

T048 147N 0550E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034

    110 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 105 NW QD

T072 149N 0518E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034

    120 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD

T096 158N 0490E 035

T120 173N 0483E 020

AMP

    096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 013

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 013

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   110000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT



2018-10-11 03:39

WTIO51 PGTW 110300

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181011014710

2018101100 05A LUBAN      013  02 270 04 SATL 030

T000 145N 0581E 075 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD 115 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 146N 0576E 070 R064 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 135 NW QD

T024 146N 0570E 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 147N 0561E 060 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD

T048 147N 0550E 060 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 085 SW QD 105 NW QD

T072 149N 0518E 055 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD

T096 158N 0490E 035

T120 173N 0483E 020

AMP

    096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 013

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 013

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   110000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 14.6N 57.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 14.6N 57.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   121200Z --- 14.7N 56.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 14.7N 55.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 14.9N 51.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   150000Z --- 15.8N 49.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   160000Z --- 17.3N 48.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

110300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.0E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101100 145N 581E  75

0518101100 145N 581E  75

0518101100 145N 581E  75

NNNN



2018-10-11 03:39

WTIO31 PGTW 110300 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 013

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   110000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 14.6N 57.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-11 03:39

WTIO31 PGTW 110300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 013

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   110000Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 14.6N 57.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 14.6N 57.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   121200Z --- 14.7N 56.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 14.7N 55.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 14.9N 51.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   150000Z --- 15.8N 49.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   160000Z --- 17.3N 48.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

110300Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.0E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER

THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE

IMAGERY SHOWS AN INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM THAT STILL

MAINTAINS A RAGGED EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH

HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE IN THE EIR IMAGERY. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT

INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KTS) AND IS SLIGHTLY UNDER A 102109Z

SATCON ESTIMATE OF 86 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE

WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD RADIAL

OUTFLOW, BALANCED BY DRY AIR FROM THE ARABIAN AIR BEING ENTRAINED

INTO THE SYSTEM AND SLOW MOTION IN AN AREA OF WARM SEA SURFACE

TEMPERATURES (29C) BUT LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC), LEADING TO THE

DISSOLVING ORGANIZATION. THE CYCLONE IS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO

REFLECTIONS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) - ONE TO THE NW AND ONE

TO THE ENE, LEADING TO SLOW DRIFTING WESTWARD MOVEMENT.  AFTER TAU

30, AN EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL BUILD IN TO THE NORTH, CAUSING TC

05A TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST. BY TAU 84, TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL

OVER EASTERN YEMEN, ENE OF MUKALLA. AFTER TAU 96, IT WILL TRACK MORE

NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE

INITIAL SLOW FORWARD MOVEMENT IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOW OHC AND DRY

AIR WILL COMPETE WITH THE FAVORABLE LOW VWS AND GOOD OUTFLOW TO

CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING TO 60 KTS BY TAU 24. TC 05A WILL MAINTAIN 60

KTS BETWEEN TAU 24 AND TAU 48 AS IT ACCELERATES AND ONLY NEEDS THE

SUPERFICIAL WARM MIXED LAYER OF THE OCEAN TO FUEL CONVECTION, AND AS

THE STRONG OUTFLOW AND LOW VWS PERSISTS. IN LATER TAUS, AS THE STR

BUILDS TO THE NORTH, THE CURRENTLY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL

WILL DIMINISH AND THE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LAND, LEADING TO

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AFTER TAU 72. BY TAU 120, TC 05A WILL HAVE

WEAKENED TO 20 KTS OVER THE DRY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF YEMEN. THERE

IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, OVER 200 NM BY TAU 96, JUST

AFTER LANDFALL. THE ECMWF, COAMPS-TC (GFS) AND COAMPS-TC (NAVGEM),

AND HWRF TRACKS ARE SOUTH OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO

PREDICTING A STRONGER STR. THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS REMAINED MOSTLY

CONSISTENT IN ITS POSITION BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS AND CURRENT RUNS.

THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED BETWEEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE

MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE

LATER TERM MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC

TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 28

FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT

SYSTEM (WTIO32 PGTW).//

NNNN



2018-10-10 21:32

WTIO51 PGTW 102100 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181010202502

2018101018 05A LUBAN      012  02 295 02 SATL 015

T000 145N 0585E 075 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050

    070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 110 SE QD

    130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 147N 0580E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD

    130 SW QD 160 NW QD

T024 147N 0575E 070 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD

    110 SW QD 140 NW QD

T036 148N 0569E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD

    100 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 149N 0557E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD

    090 SW QD 130 NW QD

T072 150N 0529E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD

    080 SW QD 110 NW QD

T096 153N 0498E 045 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD

T120 162N 0485E 025

AMP

    096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 012

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 012

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   101800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.5E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS



2018-10-10 21:32

WTIO51 PGTW 102100

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181010202502

2018101018 05A LUBAN      012  02 295 02 SATL 015

T000 145N 0585E 075 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 147N 0580E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD

T024 147N 0575E 070 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD

T036 148N 0569E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 149N 0557E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 130 NW QD

T072 150N 0529E 065 R064 010 NE QD 010 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD

T096 153N 0498E 045 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD

T120 162N 0485E 025

AMP

    096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 012

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 012

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   101800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.5E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.5E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 14.7N 58.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 14.7N 57.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 14.8N 56.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   121800Z --- 14.9N 55.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 15.0N 52.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   141800Z --- 15.3N 49.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   151800Z --- 16.2N 48.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

102100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101012 144N 587E  80

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

0518101018 145N 585E  75

NNNN



2018-10-10 21:32

WTIO31 PGTW 102100 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 012

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   101800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.5E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.5E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 14.7N 58.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-10 21:32

WTIO31 PGTW 102100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 012

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   101800Z --- NEAR 14.5N 58.5E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 02 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM

     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.5N 58.5E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 14.7N 58.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 14.7N 57.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 14.8N 56.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   121800Z --- 14.9N 55.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 15.0N 52.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   141800Z --- 15.3N 49.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   151800Z --- 16.2N 48.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

102100Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED AN EYE, BUT DEEP

CONVECTION AROUND THE CENTER HAS DIMINISHED. THE INITIAL POSITION IS

PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE IN THE EIR

IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT

INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5 (77 KTS) AND IS SLIGHTLY UNDER A 101715Z

SATCON ESTIMATE OF 81 KTS AND THE KNES ESTIMATE OF T5.5 (102 KTS).

THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-10 KNOT)

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29

CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, BALANCED BY DRY AIR FROM THE

ARABIAN AIR BEING ENTRAINED INTO THE SYSTEM AND LEADING TO THE

WEAKENING DEEP CONVECTION. THE CYCLONE IS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO

REFLECTIONS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) - ONE TO THE NW AND ONE

TO THE ENE, LEADING TO SLOW DRIFTING NORTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT.  AFTER

TAU 36, AN EXTENSION OF THE STR WILL BUILD IN TO THE NORTH, CAUSING

TC 05A TO ACCELERATE TO THE WEST. BY TAU 84, TC 05A WILL MAKE

LANDFALL OVER EASTERN YEMEN, ENE OF MUKALLA. AFTER TAU 96, IT WILL

TRACK MORE NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE

STR. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE INTENSITY

AT 75 KTS THROUGH TAU 12. TC 05A WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN TO 65 KTS BY

TAU 36 AND HOLD THAT INTENSITY UNTIL AFTER TAU 72. AS THE STR BUILDS

TO THE NORTH, THE CURRENTLY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL WILL

DIMINISH AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER THE SYSTEM,

LEADING TO ADDITIONAL WEAKENING AFTER TAU 72. BY TAU 120, TC 05A

WILL HAVE WEAKENED TO 25 KTS OVER THE DRY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF

YEMEN. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN MODEL GUIDANCE, OVER 175 NM BY

TAU 96, JUST AFTER LANDFALL. THE ECMWF, COAMPS-TC (GFS) AND COAMPS-

TC (NAVGEM), AND HWRF TRACKS ARE SOUTH OF THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS

DUE TO PREDICTING A STRONGER STR. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED

BETWEEN THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS. GIVEN THE

LARGE AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE LATER TERM MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE

REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT

110300Z, 110900Z, 111500Z AND 112100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B

(TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW)FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-10-10 15:40

WTIO51 PGTW 101500 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181010131255

2018101012 05A LUBAN      011  02 295 04 SATL 020

T000 144N 0585E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 125 SE QD

    115 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 146N 0580E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD

    130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 148N 0575E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD

    120 SW QD 130 NW QD

T036 150N 0570E 065 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034

    110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD

T048 152N 0562E 065 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034

    110 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 155N 0537E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD

    080 SW QD 120 NW QD

T096 156N 0505E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034

    070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD

T120 168N 0490E 030

AMP

    096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 011

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   101200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 58.5E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE



2018-10-10 15:40

WTIO31 PGTW 101500 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 011

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   101200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 58.5E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 58.5E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 14.6N 58.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-10 14:34

WTIO51 PGTW 101500

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181010131255

2018101012 05A LUBAN      011  02 295 04 SATL 020

T000 144N 0585E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 125 SE QD 115 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 146N 0580E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 148N 0575E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD

T036 150N 0570E 065 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD

T048 152N 0562E 065 R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 155N 0537E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD

T096 156N 0505E 050 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD

T120 168N 0490E 030

AMP

    096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 011

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   101200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 58.5E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 58.5E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 14.6N 58.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 14.8N 57.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 15.0N 57.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   121200Z --- 15.2N 56.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 15.5N 53.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   141200Z --- 15.6N 50.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   151200Z --- 16.8N 49.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

101500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

101200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101012 144N 585E  75

0518101012 144N 585E  75

0518101012 144N 585E  75

NNNN



2018-10-10 14:34

WTIO31 PGTW 101500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 011

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   101200Z --- NEAR 14.4N 58.5E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 58.5E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 14.6N 58.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 14.8N 57.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 15.0N 57.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   121200Z --- 15.2N 56.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 15.5N 53.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   141200Z --- 15.6N 50.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   151200Z --- 16.8N 49.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

101500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 58.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 298 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED DEEP CENTRAL

CONVECTION WITH SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTLY TOWARD THE CENTER. THE

INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A RAGGED

CLOUD-FILLED EYE IN THE 101030Z 1-KM VISIBLE IMAGERY THAT IS ADJUSTED

FOR A SMALL SLANT AND LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN

THE 101216Z GPM GMI PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW

DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T4.5/77KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY

FAVORABLE WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD

RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE

CYCLONE IS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO REFLECTIONS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

(STR) - ONE TO THE NW AND ONE TO THE ENE. THE COMBINED EFFECT IS

RESULTING IN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT. AFTER TAU 48, TC LUBAN WILL

TRACK MORE WESTWARD AND AT A FASTER RATE AS THE STR TO THE ENE

REORIENTS AND BUILDS. BY TAU 84, TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER

EASTERN YEMEN, ENE OF MUKALLA. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE

NORTHWARD AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE

MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE INTENSITY AT 75 KTS

THEN DOWN TO 65 KTS AFTER TAU 12 AND INTO TAU 72; AFTERWARD, RISING

VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, IT

WILL BE WEAKENED TO 30 KNOTS OVER THE DRY TERRAIN OF YEMEN. NUMERICAL

MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT TO OVER 270 NM BY TAU 120.

THIS FORECAST IS LAID LEFT OF CONSENSUS AND CLOSER TO THE ECMWF,

EEMN, HWRF, AND CTCX SOLUTION OFFERING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN

ANTICIPATION OF A STRONGER STR. GIVEN THE LARGE DIVERGENCE IN THE

TRACK MODELS, THERE REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK

FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 102100Z, 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL

CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-10-10 09:32

WTIO51 PGTW 100900 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181010073612

2018101006 05A LUBAN      010  02 310 05 SATL 025

T000 142N 0589E 075 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    075 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 190 SE QD

    170 SW QD 145 NW QD

T012 144N 0584E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD

    130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 146N 0579E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD

    120 SW QD 130 NW QD

T036 147N 0575E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD

    110 SW QD 140 NW QD

T048 148N 0569E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD

    110 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 151N 0547E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD

    080 SW QD 120 NW QD

T096 153N 0513E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034

    070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD

T120 158N 0494E 040 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD

AMP

    120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 010

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   100600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 58.9E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS



2018-10-10 09:32

WTIO51 PGTW 100900

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181010073612

2018101006 05A LUBAN      010  02 310 05 SATL 025

T000 142N 0589E 075 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW QD 080 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 145 NW QD

T012 144N 0584E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 146N 0579E 075 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD

T036 147N 0575E 075 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD

T048 148N 0569E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 151N 0547E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD

T096 153N 0513E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD

T120 158N 0494E 040 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD

AMP

    120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 010

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   100600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 58.9E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 58.9E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 14.4N 58.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 14.6N 57.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 14.7N 57.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 14.8N 56.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 15.1N 54.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 15.3N 51.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   150600Z --- 15.8N 49.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

100900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 58.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518100918 137N 597E  60

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101000 139N 593E  65

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

0518101006 142N 589E  75

NNNN



2018-10-10 09:32

WTIO31 PGTW 100900 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 010

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   100600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 58.9E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 58.9E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 14.4N 58.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-10 09:32

WTIO31 PGTW 100900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 010

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   100600Z --- NEAR 14.2N 58.9E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 58.9E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 14.4N 58.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 14.6N 57.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 14.7N 57.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 14.8N 56.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 15.1N 54.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 15.3N 51.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   150600Z --- 15.8N 49.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

100900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 58.8E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 324 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE

IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AS THE CENTRAL

CONVECTION DEEPENED AND SPIRAL BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTER TOWARD THE

CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON

AN EVOLVING EYE IN THE EIR ANIMATION THAT IS ADJUSTED FOR A SMALL

SLANT AND LINED UP WITH A WELL-DEFINED MICROWAVE EYE IN THE 100254Z

37GHZ SSMIS PASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW AND CIMS

DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY

FAVORABLE WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD

RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE

CYCLONE IS WEDGED BETWEEN TWO REFLECTIONS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

(STR) - ONE TO THE NW AND ONE TO THE ENE. THE COMBINED EFFECT IS

RESULTING IN A SLOW NORTHWESTWARD DRIFT. AFTER TAU 48, TC LUBAN WILL

TRACK MORE WESTWARD AND AT A FASTER RATE AS THE STR TO THE ENE

REORIENTS AND BUILDS. BY TAU 96, TC 05A WILL MAKE LANDFALL OVER

EASTERN YEMEN, ENE OF MUKALLA. AFTERWARD, IT WILL TRACK MORE POLEWARD

AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR. THE MARGINALLY

FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY UP TO TAU

36; AFTERWARD, RISING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL SLOWLY ERODE

THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, IT WILL BE WEAKENED TO 40 KNOTS OVER THE DRY

TERRAIN OF YEMEN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT,

UP TO 250 NM BY TAU 120 WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS HEADING

MORE POLEWARD TOWARD SALALAH, AND THE MINORITY - INCLUDING ECMWF,

HWRF, AND CTCX - OFFERING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS

LAID CLOSER TO THE LATTER SOLUTION IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONGER STR.

GIVEN THE LARGE DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK MODELS, THERE REMAINS A LOW

CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z,

110300Z AND 110900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNINGS

(WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-10-10 04:32

WTIO31 PGTW 100300 COR

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CORRECTED//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009A CORRECTED

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   100000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 59.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   101200Z --- 14.4N 58.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 14.6N 57.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 14.7N 57.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 14.8N 56.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 14.8N 54.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 14.7N 51.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   150000Z --- 14.9N 48.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 58.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM,

WITH A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE BEGINNING TO REVEAL ITSELF AS OF

100000Z, WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CLOUD COVERED LLCC.

THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A

100001Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A MID-LEVEL EYE

FEATURE AND EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING WELL TO THE

SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

ASSESSED AT 65 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY A PGTW

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS), AN AUTOMATED INTENSITY

ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 53

KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 05A IS SITUATED IN AN

OVERALL FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW

PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE IN THE VICINITY AND LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VWS.

SSTS SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR, WITH TEMPERATURES

CURRENTLY ESTIMATED NEAR 27-28 CELSIUS, REFLECTIVE OF UPWELLING AS

THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD IN A WEAK

STEERING ENVIRONMENT, CAUGHT BETWEEN COMPETING STEERING RIDGES OVER

CENTRAL SAUDI ARABIA AND WESTERN INDIA AND A WEAK TROUGH TO THE NORTH

WHICH HAS HELPED DEVELOP A BREAK IN THE STR. THE WEAK STEERING

PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS, ALLOWING THE

SYSTEM TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS STR OVER INDIA

STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. BY TAU 36, THE STR OVER

SAUDI ARABIA WILL RIDGE EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF TC 05A, ALLOWING THE

SYSTEM TO TURN ONTO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND ACCELERATE AFTER TAU

48. DUE TO THE UPWELLING OF COOL WATERS TO THE SURFACE AND THE SLOW

FORECAST MOVEMENT, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY AT 70 KNOTS

THROUGH TAU 36, WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF WEAKENING AT TAU 48. AFTER

ACCELERATING TOWARDS THE WEST, TC LUBAN IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS

IT MOVES INTO WARMER WATERS AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THE

SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL TO THE NORTHEAST OF MUKALLA,

YEMEN AROUND TAU 100 AND RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT

AND TERRAIN INTERACTION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH A

LARGE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL TRACKERS, ESPECIALLY BEYOND TAU 48.

THE U.S. MODELS (NAVGEM, GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AFUM) AS WELL AS THE EGRR

MODEL INDICATE A LANDFALL NEAR THE YEMEN-OMAN BORDER REGION BY TAU

96. THE MESOSCALE MODELS (HWRF, COAMS-TC) AND THE ECMWF AND ECMWF

ENSEMBLE COMPRISE THE OTHER SOLUTION, TAKING THE SYSTEM TO A LANDFALL

JUST WEST OF MUKALLA NEAR TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE

ECMWF AND MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST

TRACK IS LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT

100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B

(TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

2. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED INITIAL INTENSITY IN

REMARKS TO MATCH WARNING TEXT.//

NNNN



2018-10-10 03:32

WTIO51 PGTW 100300 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181010015459

2018101000 05A LUBAN      009  02 295 07 SATL 060

T000 141N 0591E 065 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 125 SE QD

    115 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 144N 0584E 070 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD

    130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 146N 0578E 070 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD

    120 SW QD 130 NW QD

T036 147N 0572E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD

    110 SW QD 140 NW QD

T048 148N 0564E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD

    110 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 148N 0546E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD

    080 SW QD 120 NW QD

T096 147N 0516E 075 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD

    050 SW QD 080 NW QD

T120 149N 0487E 065 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD

AMP

    120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---



2018-10-10 03:32

WTIO51 PGTW 100300

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181010015459

2018101000 05A LUBAN      009  02 295 07 SATL 060

T000 141N 0591E 065 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 125 SE QD 115 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 144N 0584E 070 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 146N 0578E 070 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD

T036 147N 0572E 070 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 110 SW QD 140 NW QD

T048 148N 0564E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 080 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 148N 0546E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 120 NW QD

T096 147N 0516E 075 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD

T120 149N 0487E 065 R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD

AMP

    120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   100000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 59.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   101200Z --- 14.4N 58.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 14.6N 57.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 14.7N 57.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 14.8N 56.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 14.8N 54.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 14.7N 51.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   150000Z --- 14.9N 48.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 58.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 138N 598E  60

0518100918 138N 598E  60

0518101000 141N 591E  65

0518101000 141N 591E  65

0518101000 141N 591E  65

NNNN



2018-10-10 03:32

WTIO31 PGTW 100300 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   100000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 59.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   101200Z --- 14.4N 58.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-10 03:32

WTIO31 PGTW 100300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 009

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   100000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 59.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   101200Z --- 14.4N 58.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 14.6N 57.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 14.7N 57.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 14.8N 56.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 14.8N 54.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 14.7N 51.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   150000Z --- 14.9N 48.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 58.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING SYSTEM,

WITH A DEVELOPING EYE FEATURE BEGINNING TO REVEAL ITSELF AS OF

100000Z, WITH DEEP CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CLOUD COVERED LLCC.

THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON A

100001Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS A MID-LEVEL EYE

FEATURE AND EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING EXTENDING WELL TO THE

SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

ASSESSED AT 60 KNOTS WITH MODERATE CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY A PGTW

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS), AN AUTOMATED INTENSITY

ESTIMATE OF T3.5 (55 KNOTS) AND SATELLITE CONSENSUS ESTIMATE OF 53

KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT TC 05A IS SITUATED IN A

OVERALL FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, WITH STRONG RADIAL

OUTFLOW PROVIDED BY A POINT SOURCE IN THE VICINITY AND LOW (10-15

KNOTS) VWS. SSTS SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR, WITH

TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY ESTIMATED NEAR 27-28 CELSIUS, REFLECTIVE OF

UPWELLING AS THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWLY DRIFTED NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE

PAST 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD

IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT, CAUGHT BETWEEN COMPETING STEERING

RIDGES OVER CENTRAL SAUDI ARABIA AND WESTERN INDIA AND A WEAK TROUGH

TO THE NORTH WHICH HAS HELPED DEVELOP A BREAK IN THE STR. THE WEAK

STEERING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS,

ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST AS

STR OVER INDIA STRENGTHENS AND PUSHES THE SYSTEM WESTWARD. BY TAU

36, THE STR OVER SAUDI ARABIA WILL RIDGE EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF TC

05A, ALLOWING THE SYSTEM TO TURN ONTO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AND

ACCELERATE AFTER TAU 48. DUE TO THE UPWELLING OF COOL WATERS TO THE

SURFACE AND THE SLOW FORECAST MOVEMENT, INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO

REMAIN STEADY AT 70 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 36, WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF

WEAKENING AT TAU 48. AFTER ACCELERATING TOWARDS THE WEST, TC LUBAN

IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS IT MOVES INTO WARMER WATERS AND

EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IMPROVES. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE

LANDFALL TO THE NORTHEAST OF MUKALLA, YEMEN AROUND TAU 100 AND

RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT AND TERRAIN INTERACTION.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN WITH A LARGE BIFURCATION IN THE

MODEL TRACKERS, ESPECIALLY BEYOND TAU 48. THE U.S. MODELS (NAVGEM,

GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AFUM) AS WELL AS THE EGRR MODEL INDICATE A

LANDFALL NEAR THE YEMEN-OMAN BORDER REGION BY TAU 96. THE MESOSCALE

MODELS (HWRF, COAMS-TC) AND THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE COMPRISE

THE OTHER SOLUTION, TAKING THE SYSTEM TO A LANDFALL JUST WEST OF

MUKALLA NEAR TAU 120. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE ECMWF AND

MESOSCALE MODEL SOLUTION. CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS

LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT

100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B

(TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-10-09 21:34

WTIO51 PGTW 092100 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181009200947

2018100918 05A LUBAN      008  02 335 08 SATL 030

T000 141N 0599E 060 R050 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034

    110 NE QD 135 SE QD 150 SW QD 125 NW QD

T012 144N 0592E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    110 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 146N 0585E 065 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD

    130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 148N 0580E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD

    120 SW QD 110 NW QD

T048 149N 0574E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD

    110 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 151N 0557E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD

    090 SW QD 100 NW QD

T096 150N 0529E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050

    030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD

    060 SW QD 080 NW QD

T120 149N 0496E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034

    070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD

AMP

    120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   091800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.9E



2018-10-09 21:34

WTIO51 PGTW 092100

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181009200947

2018100918 05A LUBAN      008  02 335 08 SATL 030

T000 141N 0599E 060 R050 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 135 SE QD 150 SW QD 125 NW QD

T012 144N 0592E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 146N 0585E 065 R064 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 148N 0580E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD

T048 149N 0574E 070 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 151N 0557E 080 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD

T096 150N 0529E 075 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD

T120 149N 0496E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD

AMP

    120HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   091800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.9E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 59.9E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   100600Z --- 14.4N 59.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 14.6N 58.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 14.8N 58.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 14.9N 57.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   121800Z --- 15.1N 55.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 15.0N 52.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   141800Z --- 14.9N 49.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

092100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 59.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z AND 102100Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100900 128N 608E  50

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100906 132N 604E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100912 134N 602E  55

0518100918 141N 599E  60

0518100918 141N 599E  60

NNNN



2018-10-09 21:34

WTIO31 PGTW 092100 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   091800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.9E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 59.9E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   100600Z --- 14.4N 59.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-09 21:34

WTIO31 PGTW 092100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 008

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   091800Z --- NEAR 14.1N 59.9E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 59.9E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   100600Z --- 14.4N 59.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 14.6N 58.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 14.8N 58.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 14.9N 57.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   121800Z --- 15.1N 55.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 15.0N 52.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   141800Z --- 14.9N 49.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

092100Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 59.7E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 378 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CENTRAL CONVECTION WITH THE STRONGEST

RAIN BANDS TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).

THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON A

091737Z AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH HAS A WARM BRIGHTNESS

TEMPERATURE REGION JUST EAST OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS JUST BELOW DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND

KNES OF T4.0 (65 KTS) BUT IS CONSISTENT WITH A 091735Z CIMSS SATCON

ESTIMATE OF 59 KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10-15

KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-

29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING

BETWEEN TWO SUBTROPICAL RIDGES (STR), ONE TO THE NORTHEAST AND THE

OTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AND IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTWARD

THAN IT HAS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AFTER TAU 48, TC 05A WILL TRACK

WESTWARD AS THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST BUILDS. BY TAU 120, THE CYCLONE

IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL JUST NORTH OF MUKALLA, YEMEN. THE

FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION TO A

PEAK OF 80 KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72, THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO

DECREASE AS SSTS COOL AND DRY AIR FROM YEMEN GETS ENTRAINED INTO THE

CIRCULATION. THE DISTANCE SEPARATING THE BIFURCATED MODEL SOLUTIONS

HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY BUT THE RELATIVE POSITION OF THE

DIFFERENT MODELS HAS NOT CHANGED WITH ECMWF AND COAMPS-GFS STILL

SOUTH OF THE OTHER MODELS. SPREAD IS STILL LARGE WITH 385 NM BETWEEN

THE SOUTHERNMOST (COAMPS-GFS) AND NORTHERNMOST (GALWEM) MEMBERS. THE

JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED SOUTH OF THE CONSENSUS TRACK TO

MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE ECMWF

SOLUTION. BASED ON THE LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODEL TRACKS, CONFIDENCE

IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT

AT 091800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100300Z, 100900Z, 101500Z

AND 102100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (TITLI) WARNINGS (WTIO32

PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-10-09 14:33

WTIO51 PGTW 091500 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181009130141

2018100912 05A LUBAN      007  02 295 04 SATL 025

T000 134N 0597E 055 R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034

    105 NE QD 130 SE QD 145 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 138N 0589E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034

    130 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 140N 0582E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034

    130 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD

T036 142N 0576E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 143N 0572E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD

    110 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 145N 0557E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD

    110 SW QD 110 NW QD

T096 147N 0533E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD

T120 141N 0493E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034

    070 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 007

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   091200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 59.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-10-09 14:33

WTIO51 PGTW 091500

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181009130141

2018100912 05A LUBAN      007  02 295 04 SATL 025

T000 134N 0597E 055 R050 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 130 SE QD 145 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 138N 0589E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 140N 0582E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD

T036 142N 0576E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 143N 0572E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 145N 0557E 065 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD

T096 147N 0533E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD

T120 141N 0493E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 007

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   091200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 59.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 59.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   100000Z --- 13.8N 58.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   101200Z --- 14.0N 58.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 14.2N 57.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 14.3N 57.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   121200Z --- 14.5N 55.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 14.7N 53.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   141200Z --- 14.1N 49.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

091500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 59.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 0

91200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.

UPDATES.//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 129N 606E  50

0518100900 129N 606E  50

0518100906 132N 601E  55

0518100906 132N 601E  55

0518100912 134N 597E  55

0518100912 134N 597E  55

NNNN



2018-10-09 14:33

WTIO31 PGTW 091500 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 007

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   091200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 59.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 59.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   100000Z --- 13.8N 58.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-09 14:33

WTIO31 PGTW 091500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 007

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   091200Z --- NEAR 13.4N 59.7E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 13.4N 59.7E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   100000Z --- 13.8N 58.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   101200Z --- 14.0N 58.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 14.2N 57.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 14.3N 57.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   121200Z --- 14.5N 55.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 14.7N 53.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   141200Z --- 14.1N 49.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

091500Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 59.5E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 390 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM STRUGGLED TO CONSOLIDATE; HOWEVER, RAIN

BANDS CONTINUED TO WRAP TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)

THAT REMAINS OBSCURED BY DEEP, FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE

INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE

090934Z 36 GHZ GCOM MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF

T3.5/55KTS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH LOW (05-10

KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), GOOD BUT LIMITED RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND

WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS

TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE

(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST. AFTER TAU 48, TC LUBAN WILL TRACK MORE

WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS, AND BY TAU 120, WILL BE CLOSE TO MUKALLA,

OMAN, IN THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF ADEN. THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE VERY SLOW INTENSIFICATION UP TO 65 KNOTS BY

TAU 48; AFTERWARD, RISING VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL SLOWLY ERODE

THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, IT WILL BE WEAKENED TO 50 KNOTS. NUMERICAL

MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS HEADING

MORE POLEWARD TOWARD SALALAH, AND THE MINORITY - INCLUDING ECMWF AND

ECMN - OFFERING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS LAID CLOSER

TO THE LATTER SOLUTION IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONGER STR. GIVEN THE

LARGE DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK MODELS, THERE REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE

IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 0

91200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND

101500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-10-09 09:35

WTIO51 PGTW 090900 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181009072654

2018100906 05A LUBAN      006  02 300 06 SATL 025

T000 132N 0601E 055 R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034

    095 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD

T012 137N 0592E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034

    130 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 139N 0584E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034

    130 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD

T036 142N 0576E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 144N 0567E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD

    110 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 144N 0555E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD

    110 SW QD 110 NW QD

T096 145N 0532E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD

T120 142N 0499E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034

    070 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 006

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   090600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 60.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-10-09 09:35

WTIO51 PGTW 090900

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181009072654

2018100906 05A LUBAN      006  02 300 06 SATL 025

T000 132N 0601E 055 R050 045 NE QD 030 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 075 SE QD 080 SW QD 095 NW QD

T012 137N 0592E 055 R050 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 139N 0584E 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD

T036 142N 0576E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD

T048 144N 0567E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 144N 0555E 070 R064 020 NE QD 010 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD

T096 145N 0532E 060 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD

T120 142N 0499E 050 R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 130 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 006

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   090600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 60.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 60.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   091800Z --- 13.7N 59.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   100600Z --- 13.9N 58.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 14.2N 57.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 14.4N 56.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 14.4N 55.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 14.5N 53.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 14.2N 49.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

090900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 59.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

090600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 129N 606E  50

0518100900 129N 606E  50

0518100906 132N 601E  55

0518100906 132N 601E  55

NNNN



2018-10-09 09:35

WTIO31 PGTW 090900 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 006

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   090600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 60.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 60.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   091800Z --- 13.7N 59.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-09 09:35

WTIO31 PGTW 090900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 006

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   090600Z --- NEAR 13.2N 60.1E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 60.1E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   091800Z --- 13.7N 59.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   100600Z --- 13.9N 58.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 14.2N 57.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 14.4N 56.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 14.4N 55.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 14.5N 53.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   140600Z --- 14.2N 49.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

090900Z POSITION NEAR 13.3N 59.9E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 416 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE

IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE;

HOWEVER, RAIN BANDS HAVE WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE LOW LEVEL

CIRCULATION (LLC) THAT REMAINS OBSCURED BY CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE

INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A DEFINED LLC FEATURE IN THE

090308Z 37 GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE

INITIAL INTENSITY OF 55 KNOTS IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF

T3.5/55KTS AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT. THE ENVIRONMENT

REMAINS FAVORABLE OVERALL WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

(VWS), GOOD BUT LIMITED RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA

SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN

PERIPHERY OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE

NORTH. AFTER TAU 36, TC 05A WILL TRACK MORE WESTWARD AS THE STR

BUILDS, AND BY TAU 120, WILL BE JUST TO THE EAST OF MUKALA, OMAN, IN

THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF ADEN. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PROMOTE

STEADY INTENSIFICATION UP TO 70 KNOTS BY TAU 48; AFTERWARD, RISING

VWS AND LAND INTERACTION WILL SLOWLY ERODE THE SYSTEM. BY TAU 120, IT

WILL BE WEAKENED TO 50 KNOTS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS BIFURCATED

WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS HEADING MORE POLEWARD TOWARD

SALALAH, AND THE MINORITY - INCLUDING ECMWF AND CTCX - OFFERING A

MORE WESTWARD TRACK. THIS FORECAST IS LAID CLOSER TO THE LATTER

SOLUTION IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONGER STR. GIVEN THE LARGE

DIVERGENCE IN THE TRACK MODELS, THERE REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE

JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS

20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (SIX) WARNINGS (WTIO32 PGTW) FOR

SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-10-09 03:36

WTIO51 PGTW 090300 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181009011544

2018100900 05A LUBAN      005  01 305 07 SATL 030

T000 129N 0606E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034

    125 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD

T012 133N 0598E 055 R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034

    135 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 140 NW QD

T024 136N 0590E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    140 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD

T036 140N 0581E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034

    140 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD

T048 143N 0572E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    130 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD

T072 142N 0558E 070 R064 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD

    090 SW QD 140 NW QD

T096 139N 0534E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD

    090 SW QD 120 NW QD

T120 136N 0503E 055 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034

    060 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 005

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 005

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   090000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 60.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT



2018-10-09 03:36

WTIO51 PGTW 090300

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181009011544

2018100900 05A LUBAN      005  01 305 07 SATL 030

T000 129N 0606E 050 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 125 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD

T012 133N 0598E 055 R050 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 130 SE QD 125 SW QD 140 NW QD

T024 136N 0590E 055 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 160 NW QD

T036 140N 0581E 060 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 140 NW QD

T048 143N 0572E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD

T072 142N 0558E 070 R064 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 140 NW QD

T096 139N 0534E 065 R064 020 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 120 NW QD

T120 136N 0503E 055 R050 050 NE QD 020 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 005

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 005

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   090000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 60.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 60.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   091200Z --- 13.3N 59.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   100000Z --- 13.6N 59.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   101200Z --- 14.0N 58.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 14.3N 57.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 14.2N 55.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 13.9N 53.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 13.6N 50.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 60.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100900 129N 606E  50

0518100900 129N 606E  50

NNNN



2018-10-09 03:36

WTIO31 PGTW 090300 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 005

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   090000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 60.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 60.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   091200Z --- 13.3N 59.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-09 03:36

WTIO31 PGTW 090300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 005

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   090000Z --- NEAR 12.9N 60.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.9N 60.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   091200Z --- 13.3N 59.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   100000Z --- 13.6N 59.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   101200Z --- 14.0N 58.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 14.3N 57.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 14.2N 55.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 13.9N 53.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 13.6N 50.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

090300Z POSITION NEAR 13.0N 60.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS RAIN BANDS WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH AND

SOUTH INTO PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS OBSCURING THE LOW

LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR

CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTIAL 082105Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE

WHICH CLEARLY DEPICTS A WARM BRIGHTNESS TEMPERATURE NOTCH FEATURE

IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL

INTENSITY OF 50 KTS IS SUPPORTED BY PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT

INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0-T3.5 (45-55 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS

MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH 15-20 KTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD

RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE

BEING OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY DRY AIR ENTRAINING FROM THE SOUTH. TC 05A

IS BEING STEERED BY AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)

TO THE NORTH, ALTHOUGH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE

STEERING. TC 05A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48, THEN SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS

TO THE NORTH. THERE IS A BIFURCATION IN THE MODELS, WITH THE SPLIT

BEING EVIDENT EARLY IN THE FORECAST BUT BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED

AFTER TAU 48. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST FAVORS THE SOLUTION PRESENTED

BY ECMWF, COAMPS-GFS, AND THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH MAINTAINS

THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST AND STEER THE CYCLONE ONTO A WESTERLY

TRACK AFTER TAU 48. THE OTHER MODELS (GALWEM, GFS, UKMET, NAVGEM)

BUILD THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST, STEERING TC 05A NORTHWESTWARD

TOWARD THE BORDER BETWEEN OMAN AND YEMEN. THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION WAS

CHOSEN BASED, IN PART, ON THE FACT THAT EVERY MEMBER IN THE ECMWF

ENSEMBLE DEPICTED A TRACK TOWARDS THE GULF OF ADEN. TC 05A IS

EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 70 KTS BY TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72,

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE AND THE

CYCLONE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN TO 55 KTS BY TAU 120. THE INTENSITY

FORECAST MOST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE COAMPS-GFS SOLUTION WHICH

PREDICTS A SIMILAR TRACK TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. CONFIDENCE IN

THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE MODEL

GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 14 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-08 21:34

WTIO51 PGTW 082100 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181008194400

2018100818 05A LUBAN      004  01 290 05 SATL 030

T000 125N 0612E 050 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034

    140 NE QD 125 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 129N 0604E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    125 NE QD 120 SE QD 135 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 133N 0596E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034

    110 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 136N 0589E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034

    110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD

T048 140N 0578E 065 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050

    020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD

    100 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 144N 0563E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD

    080 SW QD 110 NW QD

T096 147N 0542E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    030 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD

    080 SW QD 100 NW QD

T120 147N 0513E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 004

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 004

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   081800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 61.2E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:



2018-10-08 21:34

WTIO51 PGTW 082100

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181008194400

2018100818 05A LUBAN      004  01 290 05 SATL 030

T000 125N 0612E 050 R050 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 125 SE QD 150 SW QD 120 NW QD

T012 129N 0604E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 135 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 133N 0596E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 136N 0589E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD

T048 140N 0578E 065 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 144N 0563E 065 R064 015 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 110 NW QD

T096 147N 0542E 065 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD

T120 147N 0513E 060 R050 030 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 004

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 004

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   081800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 61.2E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 61.2E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   090600Z --- 12.9N 60.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   091800Z --- 13.3N 59.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   100600Z --- 13.6N 58.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 14.0N 57.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 14.4N 56.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   121800Z --- 14.7N 54.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 14.7N 51.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

082100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 61.0E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 122N 619E  45

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100812 123N 617E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

0518100818 125N 612E  50

NNNN



2018-10-08 21:34

WTIO31 PGTW 082100 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 004

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   081800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 61.2E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 61.2E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   090600Z --- 12.9N 60.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-08 21:34

WTIO31 PGTW 082100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING/

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 004

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   081800Z --- NEAR 12.5N 61.2E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.5N 61.2E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   090600Z --- 12.9N 60.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   091800Z --- 13.3N 59.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   100600Z --- 13.6N 58.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 14.0N 57.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 14.4N 56.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   121800Z --- 14.7N 54.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 14.7N 51.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

082100Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 61.0E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 492 NM

EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT

05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CURVED BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE NORTH AND

SOUTH INTO A SMALL AREA OF PERSISTENT, DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL

POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON A 081655Z MHS 89

GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH CLEARLY DEPICTS THE BANDING FEATURES

WRAPPING INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL

50 KT INTENSITY IS AVERAGED BETWEEN PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT

INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 AND T3.5 (45 AND 55 KTS, RESPECTIVELY)

AND IS SUPPORTED BY A 081559Z CIMSS SATCON ESTIMATE OF 52 KNOTS.

THE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-20

KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BEING OFFSET BY GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW

AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST). THE

STEERING FLOW IS WEAK AS TC 05A IS LOCATED NEAR A WEAKNESS IN AN

EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH. THE

WEAKNESS IS BEING CAUSED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF

THE STR. TC 05A IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

THROUGH TAU 72, THEN SHIFT MORE WESTWARD. THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT

IS QUITE COMPLICATED AS THE STR SPLITS RESULTING IN TWO PLAUSIBLE

SCENARIOS, DEPENDING ON WHICH OF TWO RIDGES DOMINATES. THE ECMWF,

COAMPS-GFS, ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN, AND TO SOME EXTENT THE HWRF FAVOR

THE STR TO THE NORTHWEST DOMINATING CAUSING A WESTWARD TO

SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AFTER TAU 72. THE OTHER MEMBERS FAVOR THE STR

TO THE NORTHEAST AND CONTINUE THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE

BORDER BETWEEN OMAN AND YEMEN. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE

NORTHWEST STR DOMINATING AND LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF GROUP

TRACK. TC 05A SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU

48, THEN LEVEL OFF BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME UNFAVORABLE AND THE

CYCLONE STARTS TO SLOWLY WEAKEN. THE INTENSITY FORECAST LOOSELY

FOLLOWS THE HIGH SIDE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE, WHICH HAS

WEAKENED ABOUT 10 KNOTS FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL CYCLE. CONFIDENCE

IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS LOW DUE TO THE BIFURCATION IN THE

MODEL GUIDANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO POSSIBLE SCENARIOS IN THE

EXTENDED FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 14

FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-08 16:33

WTIO51 PGTW 081500 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181008143641

2018100812 05A LUBAN      003  01 290 03 SATL 025

T000 122N 0616E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    150 NE QD 105 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD

T012 126N 0608E 060 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034

    120 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 130N 0598E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050

    020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD

    130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 133N 0591E 070 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050

    020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD

    120 SW QD 120 NW QD

T048 136N 0583E 070 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD

    110 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 141N 0566E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD

    100 SW QD 100 NW QD

T096 143N 0544E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD

    090 SW QD 080 NW QD

T120 146N 0515E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    070 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 003

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 003

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   081200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 61.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM



2018-10-08 16:33

WTIO31 PGTW 081500 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 003

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   081200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 61.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 61.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   090000Z --- 12.6N 60.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-08 15:35

WTIO51 PGTW 081500

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181008143641

2018100812 05A LUBAN      003  01 290 03 SATL 025

T000 122N 0616E 050 R050 000 NE QD 000 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 105 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD

T012 126N 0608E 060 R050 010 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T024 130N 0598E 065 R064 000 NE QD 020 SE QD 010 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 133N 0591E 070 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 120 NW QD

T048 136N 0583E 070 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 141N 0566E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD

T096 143N 0544E 075 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 090 SW QD 080 NW QD

T120 146N 0515E 060 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 003

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 003

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   081200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 61.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 61.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   090000Z --- 12.6N 60.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   091200Z --- 13.0N 59.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   100000Z --- 13.3N 59.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   101200Z --- 13.6N 58.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 14.1N 56.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   121200Z --- 14.3N 54.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 14.6N 51.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

081500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 61.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 518 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 123N 623E  35

0518100806 121N 619E  45

0518100812 122N 616E  50

0518100812 122N 616E  50

NNNN



2018-10-08 15:35

WTIO31 PGTW 081500

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 003

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   081200Z --- NEAR 12.2N 61.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 03 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.2N 61.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   090000Z --- 12.6N 60.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   091200Z --- 13.0N 59.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   100000Z --- 13.3N 59.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   101200Z --- 13.6N 58.3E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 14.1N 56.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   121200Z --- 14.3N 54.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 14.6N 51.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

081500Z POSITION NEAR 12.3N 61.4E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 518 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 03

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE

IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A TIGHT

AREA OF DEEP PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS

PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING FEATURE SEEN IN

MSI IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 081226Z GMI 37 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE

SHOWING A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A DEEP

CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 50 KTS, IN THE MIDDLE OF PGTW AND

KNES DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING T3.0 (45 KTS) TO T3.5 (55

KTS), SUPPORTED BY ADT ESTIMATES OF T3.1 (47 KTS) AND T3.4 (53 KTS)

FROM CIMSS AND NSOF, RESPECTIVELY. GOOD POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD

OUTFLOW CHANNELS ALONG WITH WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28

CELSIUS) ARE CURRENTLY OVERCOMING MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (15-25 KT)

VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ENABLING STEADY DEVELOPMENT. TC LUBAN IS

TRACKING SLOWLY WESTWARD IN A COMPETING STEERING ENVIRONMENT DUE TO

A STR ANCHORED TO THE NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN INDIA AND ANOTHER STR

TO THE NORTHWEST OVER SAUDI ARABIA, WHILE A DEVELOPING MIDLATITUDE

TROUGH PASSES WEST-TO-EAST AND SPLITS THE TWO. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS

SHIFTED TOWARD THE WEST IN THE LATEST RUN, FAVORING THE DEPICTION

OF THE ECMWF IN WHICH THE STR CENTERED OVER SAUDI ARABIA EVENTUALLY

BECOMES THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE, ALLOWING TC LUBAN TO TRACK

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD RATHER THAN TURNING NORTHWARD. TC 05A IS

EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND

CONTINUE ITS STEADY DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 12, AFTER WHICH

POLEWARD OUTFLOW BECOMES INHIBITED ALLOWING FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT

UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 75 KTS AROUND TAU 72.

AFTER TAU 72, 05A IS EXPECTED TO CEASE DEVELOPMENT AND GRADUALLY

BEGIN TO WEAKEN AS OUTFLOW IS FURTHER INHIBITED AND SSTS DECREASE.

THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED JUST LEFT OF THE MULTI-MODEL

CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS. DUE TO

THE TWO STEERING SCENARIOS AND THE RESULTING 350 NM SPREAD IN MODEL

GUIDANCE AT TAU 120, THERE REMAINS LOW CONFIDENCE (I.E. HIGH

UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z,

090900Z AND 091500Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-08 10:34

WTIO51 PGTW 080900 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181008082019

2018100806 05A LUBAN      002  01 260 07 SATL 035

T000 123N 0616E 045 R034 145 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 105 NW QD

T012 128N 0606E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034

    150 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD

T024 132N 0595E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034

    130 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 135N 0587E 065 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050

    020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD

    130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T048 139N 0578E 065 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD

    140 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 144N 0564E 070 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050

    040 NE QD 035 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD

    100 SW QD 110 NW QD

T096 150N 0545E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD

    090 SW QD 090 NW QD

T120 155N 0521E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034

    070 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 002

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 002

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   080600Z --- NEAR 12.3N 61.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:



2018-10-08 10:34

WTIO31 PGTW 080900 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 002

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   080600Z --- NEAR 12.3N 61.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 61.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   081800Z --- 12.8N 60.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   090600Z --- 13.2N 59.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY



2018-10-08 09:47

WTIO51 PGTW 080900

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181008082019

2018100806 05A LUBAN      002  01 260 07 SATL 035

T000 123N 0616E 045 R034 145 NE QD 120 SE QD 120 SW QD 105 NW QD

T012 128N 0606E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 150 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD

T024 132N 0595E 060 R050 020 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 120 NW QD

T036 135N 0587E 065 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 015 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 020 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 130 SW QD 120 NW QD

T048 139N 0578E 065 R064 000 NE QD 015 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 140 SE QD 140 SW QD 110 NW QD

T072 144N 0564E 070 R064 000 NE QD 025 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD

T096 150N 0545E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD

T120 155N 0521E 050 R050 040 NE QD 000 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 002

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 002

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   080600Z --- NEAR 12.3N 61.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 61.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   081800Z --- 12.8N 60.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   090600Z --- 13.2N 59.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   091800Z --- 13.5N 58.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   100600Z --- 13.9N 57.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 14.4N 56.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 15.0N 54.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 15.5N 52.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

080900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 61.3E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 512 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 124N 623E  35

0518100806 123N 616E  45

NNNN



2018-10-08 09:47

WTIO31 PGTW 080900

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN) WARNING NR 002

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   080600Z --- NEAR 12.3N 61.6E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 61.6E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   081800Z --- 12.8N 60.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   090600Z --- 13.2N 59.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   091800Z --- 13.5N 58.7E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   100600Z --- 13.9N 57.8E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 14.4N 56.4E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 15.0N 54.5E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 15.5N 52.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

080900Z POSITION NEAR 12.4N 61.3E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (LUBAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 512 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF MASIRAH ISLAND, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY

(MSI) SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO DEEP PERSISTENT

CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR

CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE BANDING FEATURE SEEN IN MSI IMAGERY,

SUPPORTED BY A 080511Z METOP-B AMSU 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWING A

CONSOLIDATED CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING

WRAPPING OVER THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET

AT 45 KTS, ON THE LOW END OF PGTW AND KNES DVORAK INTENSITY

ESTIMATES RANGING T3.0 (45 KTS) TO T3.5 (55 KTS), SUPPORTED BY AN

ADT ESTIMATE OF T3.0 (45 KTS) AND A 080512Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE

SHOWING TWO 45 KT WIND BARBS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. A ROBUST

POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, DEVELOPING EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,

AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 DEGREES C) ARE OVERCOMING

MARGINALLY FAVORABLE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ENABLING RAPID

DEVELOPMENT. TC 05A IS TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE

SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS NORTH. A

MIDLATITUDE TROUGH PASSING WEST-TO-EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE

AFOREMENTIONED STR IS CREATING A BREAK IN THE STR, WHICH WILL ALLOW

TC 05A TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS EASTERN YEMEN. THE ECMWF

AND COAMPS-TC MODELS DEPICT AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IN WHICH THE STR

AHEAD OF TC 05A IS MAINTAINED, CAUSING 05A TO TURN WESTWARD INTO THE

GULF OF ADEN WHERE IT WOULD INTENSIFY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TC

05A IS CURRENTLY SHOWING SINGS OF RAPID DEVELOPMENT WHICH WOULD SEEM

TO FAVOR IT BREAKING THROUGH THE GAP IN THE STR, AS DEPICTED BY THE

BULK OF MODEL GUIDANCE. TC 05A IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN FAVORABLE

ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND CONTINUE ITS RAPID DEVELOPMENT THROUGH

TAU 12, AFTER WHICH POLEWARD OUTFLOW BECOMES INHIBITED ALLOWING FOR

GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT UNTIL THE SYSTEM REACHES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 70

KTS AT TAU 72. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED JUST LEFT OF THE

MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. AFTER TAU 72, 05A IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY

WEAKEN AS OUTFLOW IS FURTHER INHIBITED AND VWS INCREASES SLIGHTLY.

DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTLIERS AND THE RESULTING 400 NM SPREAD

IN MODEL GUIDANCE AT TAU 120, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (I.E. HIGH

UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE

HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z, 082100Z,

090300Z AND 090900Z.//

NNNN



2018-10-08 02:32

WTIO51 PGTW 080300 RRA

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181008011453

2018100800 05A FIVE       001  01 300 08 SATL 060

T000 124N 0623E 035 R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD

T012 130N 0612E 045 R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD

T024 134N 0599E 050 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034

    090 NE QD 150 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD

T036 138N 0590E 055 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034

    130 NE QD 155 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD

T048 142N 0582E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034

    135 NE QD 140 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD

T072 147N 0571E 060 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034

    120 NE QD 120 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD

T096 152N 0550E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050

    050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD

    130 SW QD 130 NW QD

T120 155N 0526E 050 R050 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R034

    090 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   080000Z --- NEAR 12.4N 62.3E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT



2018-10-08 02:32

WTIO51 PGTW 080300

WARNING    ATCG MIL 05A NIO 181008011453

2018100800 05A FIVE       001  01 300 08 SATL 060

T000 124N 0623E 035 R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 110 NW QD

T012 130N 0612E 045 R034 110 NE QD 130 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD

T024 134N 0599E 050 R050 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD

T036 138N 0590E 055 R050 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 155 SE QD 160 SW QD 125 NW QD

T048 142N 0582E 055 R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 140 SE QD 170 SW QD 125 NW QD

T072 147N 0571E 060 R050 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 135 SW QD 110 NW QD

T096 152N 0550E 065 R064 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD

T120 155N 0526E 050 R050 030 NE QD 015 SE QD 015 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 080 SW QD 080 NW QD

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   080000Z --- NEAR 12.4N 62.3E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 62.3E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   081200Z --- 13.0N 61.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   090000Z --- 13.4N 59.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   091200Z --- 13.8N 59.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   100000Z --- 14.2N 58.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 14.7N 57.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 15.2N 55.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 15.5N 52.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

080300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 62.0E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.

//

0518100500 111N 723E  15

0518100506 115N 714E  15

0518100512 113N 702E  15

0518100518 112N 693E  20

0518100600 111N 683E  25

0518100606 111N 673E  25

0518100612 112N 666E  25

0518100618 112N 661E  25

0518100700 113N 656E  25

0518100706 115N 652E  30

0518100712 121N 643E  30

0518100718 120N 630E  30

0518100800 124N 623E  35

NNNN



2018-10-08 02:32

WTIO31 PGTW 080300 RRA

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   080000Z --- NEAR 12.4N 62.3E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 62.3E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   081200Z --- 13.0N 61.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   090000Z --- 13.4N 59.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT



2018-10-08 02:32

WTIO31 PGTW 080300

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WARNING NR 001

   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   080000Z --- NEAR 12.4N 62.3E

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 12.4N 62.3E

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   081200Z --- 13.0N 61.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   090000Z --- 13.4N 59.9E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   091200Z --- 13.8N 59.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   100000Z --- 14.2N 58.2E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 14.7N 57.1E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 15.2N 55.0E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 15.5N 52.6E

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

    ---

REMARKS:

080300Z POSITION NEAR 12.6N 62.0E.

TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 550 NM EAST-

SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CONSOLIDATING BANDING WRAPPING INTO

DEEPENING PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS

PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN INFLOW NOTCH IN THE EIR

IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KTS, IN THE MIDDLE OF

DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.0 (30 KTS) TO

T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM DEMS, PGTW, AND KNES. ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND

WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (27-28 DEGREES C) ARE BALANCING

MODERATE (15-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, ENABLING DEVELOPMENT. TC

05A IS TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY

OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO ITS NORTH. A MIDLATITUDE TROUGH

PASSING WEST-TO-EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR IS

CREATING A BREAK IN THE STR, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC 05A TO TRACK TO THE

NORTHWEST. THE GALWEM, UKMET, AND ECMWF MODELS ARE THE SOUTHERN

OUTLIERS, WITH THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF ECMWF TRACKING 05A WESTWARD

INTO THE GULF OF ADEN AND MAINTAINING IT OVER WATER FAR LONGER THAN

THE OTHER MODELS. NAVGEM AND GFS PREDICT A MORE DRAMATIC BREAK IN

THE STR, A TIGHTER TURN TOWARDS A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK, AND

LANDFALL IN OMAN AFTER TAU 96. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS HEDGED

BETWEEN THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ECMWF SOLUTION TO THE SOUTH.

TC 05A IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 65 KTS BY TAU

96. OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER TAU 48 AND SSTS WILL COOL

TO 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS CLOSER TO THE ARABIAN PENINSULA, WHICH WILL

HINDER SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. DUE TO THE 315 NM SPREAD AT TAU 120,

THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT

080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.

2. THIS SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 070830).//

NNNN