Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for TRAMI-18
in Japan

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 300300
WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 180930012247
2018093000 28W TRAMI 038 02 045 19 SATL RADR 020
T000 306N 1310E 090 R064 125 NE QD 135 SE QD 100 SW QD 090 NW QD R050 185 NE QD 205 SE QD 165 SW Q
D 145 NW QD R034 310 NE QD 275 SE QD 250 SW QD 285 NW QD
T012 352N 1363E 070 R064 090 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 270 SE QD 270 SW QD 240 NW QD
T024 412N 1436E 045 R034 220 NE QD 310 SE QD 280 SW QD 170 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 038
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 30.6N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
285 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.6N 131.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 35.2N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 41.2N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 31.8N 132.3E.
TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z. REFER TO
UPDATES.//
2818091912 126N1480E 20
2818091918 127N1474E 20
2818092000 128N1468E 20
2818092006 129N1462E 20
2818092012 132N1456E 20
2818092018 138N1451E 25
2818092100 145N1442E 30
2818092106 151N1434E 35
2818092112 156N1425E 40
2818092118 160N1413E 45
2818092200 162N1402E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092600 207N1290E 110
2818092600 207N1290E 110
2818092600 207N1290E 110
2818092606 210N1292E 105
2818092606 210N1292E 105
2818092606 210N1292E 105
2818092612 213N1292E 90
2818092612 213N1292E 90
2818092612 213N1292E 90
2818092618 214N1292E 90
2818092618 214N1292E 90
2818092618 214N1292E 90
2818092700 216N1291E 90
2818092700 216N1291E 90
2818092700 216N1291E 90
2818092706 217N1292E 90
2818092706 217N1292E 90
2818092706 217N1292E 90
2818092712 220N1288E 90
2818092712 220N1288E 90
2818092712 220N1288E 90
2818092718 223N1284E 90
2818092718 223N1284E 90
2818092718 223N1284E 90
2818092800 226N1279E 90
2818092800 226N1279E 90
2818092800 226N1279E 90
2818092806 231N1274E 90
2818092806 231N1274E 90
2818092806 231N1274E 90
2818092812 238N1270E 90
2818092812 238N1270E 90
2818092812 238N1270E 90
2818092818 246N1268E 90
2818092818 246N1268E 90
2818092818 246N1268E 90
2818092900 254N1269E 90
2818092900 254N1269E 90
2818092900 254N1269E 90
2818092906 264N1273E 90
2818092906 264N1273E 90
2818092906 264N1273E 90
2818092912 279N1284E 90
2818092912 279N1284E 90
2818092912 279N1284E 90
2818092918 292N1295E 95
2818092918 292N1295E 95
2818092918 292N1295E 95
2818093000 306N1310E 90
2818093000 306N1310E 90
2818093000 306N1310E 90


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 300300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 038
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
300000Z --- NEAR 30.6N 131.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 310 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
285 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.6N 131.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 35.2N 136.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 41 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 41.2N 143.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
300300Z POSITION NEAR 31.8N 132.3E.
TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 229 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 30W (KONG-REY) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 290000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.34 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 25.4N, 126.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
HIGH TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
JAPAN BY FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 281800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.33 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 24.5N, 126.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING
AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 281200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.32 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 23.8N, 126.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE
MOVEMENT.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 280000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 22.5N, 128.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
WEAK VWS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE
BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 272100
WARNING 272100.
WARNING VALID 282100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 955 HPA
AT 22.4N 128.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 282100UTC AT 24.6N 126.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 271800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 22.3N, 128.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT
LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 271800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 26
NAME 1824 TRAMI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 271800UTC 22.2N 128.5E
MOVEMENT NW 4KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 281800UTC 24.7N 126.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 291800UTC 28.7N 128.5E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
72HR
POSITION 301800UTC 37.2N 138.5E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 011800UTC 49.2N 156.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 271800
WARNING 271800.
WARNING VALID 281800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 955 HPA
AT 22.3N 128.4E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 24.3N 126.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 28.6N 128.7E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 37.5N 138.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 271800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271800UTC 22.3N 128.4E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 281800UTC 24.3N 126.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 291800UTC 28.6N 128.7E 150NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 301800UTC 37.5N 138.0E 220NM 70.
MOVE NE 30KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 011800UTC 49.2N 155.7E 260NM 70.
MOVE NE 43KT
120HF 021800UTC 53.6N 176.9E 350NM 70.
MOVE ENE 35KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 271500
WARNING 271500.
WARNING VALID 281500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 955 HPA
AT 22.0N 128.7E SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281500UTC AT 23.9N 126.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 271200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 21.8N, 128.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN MICROWAVE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT
LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. NOAA-18/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN TURN TO THE
NORTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL
FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 271200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 25
NAME 1824 TRAMI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 271200UTC 21.9N 128.8E
MOVEMENT NW 3KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 281200UTC 23.9N 127.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 291200UTC 27.7N 127.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
72HR
POSITION 301200UTC 34.4N 134.8E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 011200UTC 45.7N 150.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 271200
WARNING 271200.
WARNING VALID 281200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 955 HPA
AT 21.8N 128.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 23.4N 126.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 27.6N 127.5E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 301200UTC AT 34.6N 135.4E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 271200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 271200UTC 21.8N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 281200UTC 23.4N 126.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 291200UTC 27.6N 127.5E 150NM 70.
MOVE N 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 301200UTC 34.6N 135.4E 220NM 70.
MOVE NE 24KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 011200UTC 48.5N 152.2E 260NM 70.
MOVE NE 47KT
120HF 021200UTC 54.6N 170.8E 350NM 70.
MOVE ENE 33KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 270900
WARNING 270900.
WARNING VALID 280900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 955 HPA
AT 21.8N 129.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280900UTC AT 23.3N 127.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 270900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270900UTC 21.8N 129.0E GOOD
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 280900UTC 23.3N 127.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
45HF 290600UTC 26.3N 126.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 300600UTC 31.7N 132.2E 220NM 70.
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 270600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 21.7N, 129.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT
LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 21.7N, 129.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT
LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER
DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS
OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 270600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 24
NAME 1824 TRAMI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 270600UTC 21.7N 129.0E
MOVEMENT NNW 2KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 280600UTC 23.3N 127.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 290600UTC 26.5N 127.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
72HR
POSITION 300600UTC 32.3N 132.3E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
96HR
POSITION 010600UTC 42.6N 145.0E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
120HR
POSITION 020600UTC 54.0N 167.7E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 270600
WARNING 270600.
WARNING VALID 280600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 955 HPA
AT 21.7N 129.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 23.0N 127.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 26.3N 126.6E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300600UTC AT 31.7N 132.2E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 21.7N 129.0E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 23.0N 127.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 290600UTC 26.3N 126.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 300600UTC 31.7N 132.2E 220NM 70.
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 010600UTC 45.7N 146.5E 300NM 70.
MOVE NNE 45KT
120HF 020600UTC 54.0N 166.5E 425NM 70.
MOVE NE 38KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 270600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270600UTC 21.7N 129.0E GOOD
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 280600UTC 23.0N 127.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 290600UTC 26.3N 126.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 300600UTC 31.7N 132.2E 220NM 70.
MOVE NE 18KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 270300
WARNING 270300.
WARNING VALID 280300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 950 HPA
AT 21.6N 129.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280300UTC AT 22.7N 127.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 270300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270300UTC 21.6N 129.1E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 120NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 280300UTC 22.7N 127.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 290000UTC 25.4N 126.3E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 300000UTC 30.0N 130.1E 220NM 70.
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 270300
WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 180927021619
2018092700 28W TRAMI 026 02 335 02 SATL 040
T000 216N 1291E 090 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD 145 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 219N 1289E 090 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 210 NW QD
T024 227N 1280E 090 R064 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 190 SW QD 220 NW QD
T036 240N 1270E 095 R064 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 220 SE QD 230 SW QD 260 NW QD
T048 258N 1272E 105 R064 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 230 SE QD 250 SW QD 270 NW QD
T072 307N 1308E 110 R064 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 150 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 260 SE QD 280 SW QD 260 NW QD
T096 414N 1438E 075 R064 010 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 210 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 370 NE QD 440 SE QD 300 SW QD 160 NW QD
T120 512N 1575E 040 R034 380 NE QD 610 SE QD 400 SW QD 280 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 026
1. TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 21.6N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 129.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.9N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.7N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.0N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 25.8N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 30.7N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 41.4N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 51.2N 157.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 380 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
610 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
400 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 129.0E.
TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2818091912 126N1480E 20
2818091918 127N1474E 20
2818092000 128N1468E 20
2818092006 129N1462E 20
2818092012 132N1456E 20
2818092018 138N1451E 25
2818092100 145N1442E 30
2818092106 151N1434E 35
2818092112 156N1425E 40
2818092118 160N1413E 45
2818092200 162N1402E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092600 207N1290E 110
2818092600 207N1290E 110
2818092600 207N1290E 110
2818092606 210N1292E 105
2818092606 210N1292E 105
2818092606 210N1292E 105
2818092612 213N1292E 90
2818092612 213N1292E 90
2818092612 213N1292E 90
2818092618 214N1292E 90
2818092618 214N1292E 90
2818092618 214N1292E 90
2818092700 216N1291E 90
2818092700 216N1291E 90
2818092700 216N1291E 90


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
270000Z --- NEAR 21.6N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.6N 129.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.9N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.7N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.0N 127.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 25.8N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 30.7N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 37 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 41.4N 143.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 370 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
440 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 51.2N 157.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 380 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
610 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
400 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
270300Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 129.0E.
TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 302 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 270000Z IS
35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 270900Z, 271500Z, 272100Z AND 280300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR FINAL WARNING.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 270000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 21.5N, 129.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360
DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 21.5N, 129.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE EYE BY AT LEAST 360
DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR IN THE
DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND
MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, INCREASED VWS AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 270000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23
NAME 1824 TRAMI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 270000UTC 21.5N 129.1E
MOVEMENT W 1KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 280000UTC 22.7N 127.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 290000UTC 25.5N 126.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
72HR
POSITION 300000UTC 30.2N 129.8E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
96HR
POSITION 010000UTC 39.3N 141.3E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 020000UTC 50.0N 153.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 270000
WARNING 270000.
WARNING VALID 280000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 950 HPA
AT 21.5N 129.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 22.5N 127.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 25.4N 126.3E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 300000UTC AT 30.0N 130.1E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 21.5N 129.2E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 22.5N 127.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 290000UTC 25.4N 126.3E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 300000UTC 30.0N 130.1E 220NM 70.
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 010000UTC 40.2N 139.8E 300NM 70.
MOVE NE 32KT
120HF 020000UTC 50.8N 153.8E 425NM 70.
MOVE NE 36KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 270000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 270000UTC 21.5N 129.2E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 280000UTC 22.5N 127.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 290000UTC 25.4N 126.3E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 300000UTC 30.0N 130.1E 220NM 70.
MOVE NE 14KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 262100
WARNING 262100.
WARNING VALID 272100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 950 HPA
AT 21.5N 129.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 272100UTC AT 22.4N 128.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 262100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 262100UTC 21.5N 129.2E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 272100UTC 22.4N 128.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 281800UTC 24.5N 126.1E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 291800UTC 29.0N 128.5E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 262100
WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 180926203634
2018092618 28W TRAMI 025 02 360 01 SATL 040
T000 214N 1292E 090 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD 145 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 218N 1288E 090 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 224N 1282E 090 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 200 NW QD
T036 233N 1271E 095 R064 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 230 NW QD
T048 248N 1266E 105 R064 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 210 SW QD 250 NW QD
T072 289N 1286E 110 R064 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 120 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 230 SE QD 240 SW QD 250 NW QD
T096 382N 1397E 090 R064 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 150 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 300 SE QD 230 SW QD 170 NW QD
T120 485N 1532E 050 R050 070 NE QD 240 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 430 NE QD 550 SE QD 400 SW Q
D 280 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 025
1. TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261800Z --- NEAR 21.4N 129.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.4N 129.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.8N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.4N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.3N 127.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.8N 126.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 28.9N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 38.2N 139.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 35 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011800Z --- 48.5N 153.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 430 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
550 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
400 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
280 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
262100Z POSITION NEAR 21.5N 129.1E.
TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 315 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261800Z IS 33 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 270300Z, 270900Z, 271500Z AND 272100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
2818091912 126N1480E 20
2818091918 127N1474E 20
2818092000 128N1468E 20
2818092006 129N1462E 20
2818092012 132N1456E 20
2818092018 138N1451E 25
2818092100 145N1442E 30
2818092106 151N1434E 35
2818092112 156N1425E 40
2818092118 160N1413E 45
2818092200 162N1402E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092600 207N1290E 110
2818092600 207N1290E 110
2818092600 207N1290E 110
2818092606 210N1292E 105
2818092606 210N1292E 105
2818092606 210N1292E 105
2818092612 213N1292E 90
2818092612 213N1292E 90
2818092612 213N1292E 90
2818092618 214N1292E 90
2818092618 214N1292E 90
2818092618 214N1292E 90


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 261800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 21.5N, 129.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 21.5N, 129.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 261800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22
NAME 1824 TRAMI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 261800UTC 21.5N 129.2E
MOVEMENT N 2KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 271800UTC 22.3N 127.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 281800UTC 24.7N 126.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
72HR
POSITION 291800UTC 28.7N 128.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
96HR
POSITION 301800UTC 35.9N 137.1E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
120HR
POSITION 011800UTC 46.3N 149.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 261800
WARNING 261800.
WARNING VALID 271800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 950 HPA
AT 21.5N 129.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 22.3N 128.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 24.5N 126.1E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291800UTC AT 29.0N 128.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 21.5N 129.2E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 271800UTC 22.3N 128.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 281800UTC 24.5N 126.1E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 291800UTC 29.0N 128.5E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 301800UTC 37.4N 137.6E 300NM 70.
MOVE NE 28KT
120HF 011800UTC 49.6N 150.5E 425NM 70.
MOVE NNE 38KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 261800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261800UTC 21.5N 129.2E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 271800UTC 22.3N 128.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 281800UTC 24.5N 126.1E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 291800UTC 29.0N 128.5E 220NM 70.
MOVE NNE 12KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 261500
WARNING 261500.
WARNING VALID 271500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 950 HPA
AT 21.4N 129.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271500UTC AT 22.2N 128.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 261500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261500UTC 21.4N 129.2E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 271500UTC 22.2N 128.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 281200UTC 23.7N 126.4E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 291200UTC 27.6N 127.2E 170NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 261500
WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 180926141432
2018092612 28W TRAMI 024 02 360 03 SATL 030
T000 213N 1292E 090 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW Q
D 095 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 218N 1289E 085 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 170 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 222N 1283E 085 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 230N 1275E 095 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD 190 SW QD 230 NW QD
T048 242N 1267E 105 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 220 SW QD 260 NW QD
T072 280N 1277E 110 R064 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 120 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 230 SE QD 270 SW QD 260 NW QD
T096 350N 1356E 090 R064 050 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 250 NE QD 310 SE QD 280 SW QD 210 NW QD
T120 447N 1477E 050 R050 030 NE QD 200 SE QD 100 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 430 NE QD 540 SE QD 340 SW Q
D 250 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 024
1. TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 21.3N 129.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 129.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.8N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.2N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.0N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.2N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 28.0N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 35.0N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 44.7N 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 430 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
540 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 129.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNINGS
2818091912 126N1480E 20
2818091918 127N1474E 20
2818092000 128N1468E 20
2818092006 129N1462E 20
2818092012 132N1456E 20
2818092018 138N1451E 25
2818092100 145N1442E 30
2818092106 151N1434E 35
2818092112 156N1425E 40
2818092118 160N1413E 45
2818092200 162N1402E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092600 207N1290E 110
2818092600 207N1290E 110
2818092600 207N1290E 110
2818092606 210N1292E 105
2818092606 210N1292E 105
2818092606 210N1292E 105
2818092612 213N1292E 90
2818092612 213N1292E 90
2818092612 213N1292E 90


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
261200Z --- NEAR 21.3N 129.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 129.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.8N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.2N 128.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 23.0N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 24.2N 126.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 28.0N 127.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 35.0N 135.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
310 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 34 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 44.7N 147.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 430 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
540 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
340 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 21.4N 129.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 321 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 262100Z, 270300Z, 270900Z AND 271500Z. REFER
TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 29W (TWENTYNINE) WARNINGS
(WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 261200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 21.3N, 129.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 21.3N, 129.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 261200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21
NAME 1824 TRAMI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 261200UTC 21.3N 129.2E
MOVEMENT N 4KT
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 271200UTC 21.9N 128.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 281200UTC 23.6N 126.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
72HR
POSITION 291200UTC 27.2N 126.8E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
96HR
POSITION 301200UTC 33.1N 133.6E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
120HR
POSITION 011200UTC 43.0N 146.2E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 261200
WARNING 261200.
WARNING VALID 271200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 950 HPA
AT 21.3N 129.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 21.9N 128.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 23.7N 126.4E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 291200UTC AT 27.6N 127.2E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 21.3N 129.2E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 271200UTC 21.9N 128.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 281200UTC 23.7N 126.4E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 291200UTC 27.6N 127.2E 170NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 301200UTC 34.4N 134.9E 300NM 70.
MOVE NE 24KT
120HF 011200UTC 48.4N 149.7E 425NM 70.
MOVE NNE 45KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 261200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 261200UTC 21.3N 129.2E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 271200UTC 21.9N 128.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 281200UTC 23.7N 126.4E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 291200UTC 27.6N 127.2E 170NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 260900
WARNING 260900.
WARNING VALID 270900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 950 HPA
AT 21.1N 129.2E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270900UTC AT 21.7N 128.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 260900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260900UTC 21.1N 129.2E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 270900UTC 21.7N 128.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 280600UTC 23.0N 126.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 290600UTC 26.4N 126.3E 130NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 260900
WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 180926083217
2018092606 28W TRAMI 023 02 030 04 SATL 025
T000 210N 1292E 105 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 165 SW QD 175 NW QD
T012 215N 1290E 100 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 220N 1286E 095 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 210 NW QD
T036 226N 1279E 100 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 220 NW QD
T048 236N 1272E 105 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 250 NW QD
T072 266N 1269E 110 R064 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 120 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 230 SE QD 260 SW QD 270 NW QD
T096 323N 1325E 100 R064 060 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 280 SE QD 280 SW QD 250 NW QD
T120 414N 1432E 060 R050 060 NE QD 210 SE QD 100 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 360 NE QD 450 SE QD 320 SW Q
D 250 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 023
1. TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 129.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 129.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.5N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 22.0N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
210 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.6N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
220 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.6N 127.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 26.6N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 32.3N 132.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010600Z --- 41.4N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 360 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
450 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
320 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 129.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 339 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS
TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260600Z
IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 261500Z, 262100Z, 270300Z
AND 270900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 29W (TWENTYNINE)
2818091912 126N1480E 20
2818091918 127N1474E 20
2818092000 128N1468E 20
2818092006 129N1462E 20
2818092012 132N1456E 20
2818092018 138N1451E 25
2818092100 145N1442E 30
2818092106 151N1434E 35
2818092112 156N1425E 40
2818092118 160N1413E 45
2818092200 162N1402E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092600 207N1290E 110
2818092600 207N1290E 110
2818092600 207N1290E 110
2818092606 210N1292E 105
2818092606 210N1292E 105
2818092606 210N1292E 105


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 260600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 20.9N, 129.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND
SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 20.9N, 129.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND
SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWARD UNTIL
FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 260600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20
NAME 1824 TRAMI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 260600UTC 20.9N 129.2E
MOVEMENT NE 3KT
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 270600UTC 21.6N 128.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
48HR
POSITION 280600UTC 23.0N 127.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
72HR
POSITION 290600UTC 26.1N 126.3E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
96HR
POSITION 300600UTC 30.8N 130.7E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 010600UTC 38.1N 140.2E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 260600
WARNING 260600.
WARNING VALID 270600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 950 HPA
AT 20.9N 129.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 21.6N 128.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 23.0N 126.7E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290600UTC AT 26.4N 126.3E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 20.9N 129.1E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 21.6N 128.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 280600UTC 23.0N 126.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 290600UTC 26.4N 126.3E 130NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 300600UTC 31.8N 131.8E 260NM 70.
MOVE NE 18KT
120HF 010600UTC 44.6N 146.5E 350NM 70.
MOVE NE 43KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 260600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260600UTC 20.9N 129.1E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 270600UTC 21.6N 128.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 280600UTC 23.0N 126.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 290600UTC 26.4N 126.3E 130NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 260300
WARNING 260300.
WARNING VALID 270300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 950 HPA
AT 20.8N 129.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270300UTC AT 21.6N 128.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 260300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260300UTC 20.8N 129.0E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 270300UTC 21.6N 128.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 280000UTC 22.5N 127.1E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 290000UTC 25.3N 125.7E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 260300
WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 180926012745
2018092600 28W TRAMI 022 01 015 04 SATL 015
T000 207N 1290E 110 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 090 SW QD 090 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 190 SE QD 160 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 211N 1290E 105 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 216N 1287E 100 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 221N 1282E 100 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 229N 1274E 105 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 255N 1264E 105 R064 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD 210 SW QD 250 NW QD
T096 294N 1291E 095 R064 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW QD 120 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 240 SW QD 250 NW QD
T120 375N 1387E 060 R050 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 100 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 230 SE QD 260 SW QD 260 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 20.7N 129.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 129.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.1N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.6N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.1N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.9N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 25.5N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 29.4N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 37.5N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 129.0E.
TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 37 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
2818091912 126N1480E 20
2818091918 127N1474E 20
2818092000 128N1468E 20
2818092006 129N1462E 20
2818092012 132N1456E 20
2818092018 138N1451E 25
2818092100 145N1442E 30
2818092106 151N1434E 35
2818092112 156N1425E 40
2818092118 160N1413E 45
2818092200 162N1402E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092600 207N1290E 110
2818092600 207N1290E 110
2818092600 207N1290E 110
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 022
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
260000Z --- NEAR 20.7N 129.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 129.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 21.1N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.6N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 22.1N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.9N 127.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 25.5N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 29.4N 129.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 37.5N 138.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
260300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 129.0E.
TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 354 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 260000Z IS 37
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260900Z, 261500Z, 262100Z AND 270300Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 260000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 20.7N, 129.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND
SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 20.7N, 129.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND
SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI
SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 260000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME 1824 TRAMI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 260000UTC 20.7N 129.0E
MOVEMENT NNE 4KT
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 270000UTC 21.2N 128.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
48HR
POSITION 280000UTC 22.4N 127.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
72HR
POSITION 290000UTC 25.1N 125.9E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
96HR
POSITION 300000UTC 29.4N 128.9E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 010000UTC 34.7N 136.6E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 260000
WARNING 260000.
WARNING VALID 270000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 950 HPA
AT 20.7N 129.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 21.6N 128.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 22.5N 127.1E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 290000UTC AT 25.3N 125.7E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 20.7N 129.0E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 21.6N 128.8E 50NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 280000UTC 22.5N 127.1E 95NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 290000UTC 25.3N 125.7E 130NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 300000UTC 29.3N 128.7E 260NM 70%
MOVE NNE 12KT
120HF 010000UTC 37.7N 139.0E 350NM 70%
MOVE NE 30KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 260000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 260000UTC 20.7N 129.0E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 270000UTC 21.6N 128.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 280000UTC 22.5N 127.1E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 290000UTC 25.3N 125.7E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 252100
WARNING 252100.
WARNING VALID 262100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 935 HPA
AT 20.4N 129.0E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 262100UTC AT 21.3N 128.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 252100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 252100UTC 20.4N 129.0E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 262100UTC 21.3N 128.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
45HF 271800UTC 22.0N 127.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
69HF 281800UTC 24.0N 125.3E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 252100
WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 180925192251
2018092518 28W TRAMI 021 01 360 03 SATL 020
T000 203N 1289E 115 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 105 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 195 SE QD 175 SW QD 185 NW QD
T012 207N 1289E 105 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 211N 1289E 100 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 216N 1286E 095 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 170 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 223N 1279E 095 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 065 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 200 NW QD
T072 245N 1263E 105 R064 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD 210 SW QD 250 NW QD
T096 276N 1275E 110 R064 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 120 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 240 SW QD 250 NW QD
T120 312N 1313E 095 R064 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 080 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 230 SE QD 260 SW QD 260 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 021
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 28W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 20.3N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.7N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.1N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.6N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.3N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.5N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 27.6N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 31.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 128.9E.
TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM SOUTH OF KADENA
AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 38 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
2818091912 126N1480E 20
2818091918 127N1474E 20
2818092000 128N1468E 20
2818092006 129N1462E 20
2818092012 132N1456E 20
2818092018 138N1451E 25
2818092100 145N1442E 30
2818092106 151N1434E 35
2818092112 156N1425E 40
2818092118 160N1413E 45
2818092200 162N1402E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092512 200N1289E 130
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092518 203N1289E 115
2818092518 203N1289E 115


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 252100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 021
DOWNGRADED FROM SUPER TYPHOON 28W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251800Z --- NEAR 20.3N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.7N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.1N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.6N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.3N 127.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.5N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 27.6N 127.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301800Z --- 31.2N 131.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
252100Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 128.9E.
TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 377 NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB,
OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251800Z IS 38 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 260300Z, 260900Z, 261500Z AND 262100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 251800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME 1824 TRAMI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 251800UTC 20.3N 128.9E
MOVEMENT N 3KT
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 261800UTC 21.0N 128.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
48HR
POSITION 271800UTC 22.0N 127.8E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
72HR
POSITION 281800UTC 24.3N 125.9E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
96HR
POSITION 291800UTC 28.2N 127.6E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
120HR
POSITION 301800UTC 32.9N 133.6E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 251800
WARNING 251800.
WARNING VALID 261800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 935 HPA
AT 20.3N 128.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 21.2N 129.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 22.0N 127.6E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281800UTC AT 24.0N 125.3E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
940 HPA, MAX WINDS 90 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 251800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 20.3N, 128.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND
INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 20.3N, 128.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR AND
INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL
FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DUE TO WEAK
STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD
DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 20.3N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 261800UTC 21.2N 129.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 271800UTC 22.0N 127.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 281800UTC 24.0N 125.3E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 291800UTC 27.0N 125.2E 200NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
120HF 301800UTC 31.5N 131.0E 350NM 70.
MOVE NE 17KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 251800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251800UTC 20.3N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM
FORECAST
24HF 261800UTC 21.2N 129.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 271800UTC 22.0N 127.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 281800UTC 24.0N 125.3E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 251500
WARNING 251500.
WARNING VALID 261500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 925 HPA
AT 20.2N 128.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261500UTC AT 21.0N 129.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 251500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251500UTC 20.2N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE N SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 261500UTC 21.0N 129.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
45HF 271200UTC 21.5N 128.4E 95NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
69HF 281200UTC 23.1N 126.2E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 020
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
251200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.4N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.8N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.1N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.7N 128.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.6N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 000 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 26.6N 126.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 30.5N 130.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 128.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 395 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 251200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 20.0N, 128.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
AIR AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 251200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME 1824 TRAMI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 251200UTC 20.0N 128.9E
MOVEMENT NNE 2KT
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 261200UTC 20.6N 128.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
48HR
POSITION 271200UTC 21.5N 128.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
72HR
POSITION 281200UTC 23.4N 126.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
96HR
POSITION 291200UTC 26.6N 126.1E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
120HR
POSITION 301200UTC 30.2N 130.0E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 251200
WARNING 251200.
WARNING VALID 261200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 925 HPA
AT 20.0N 128.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 240 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261200UTC AT 20.9N 129.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271200UTC AT 21.5N 128.4E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 281200UTC AT 23.1N 126.2E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
935 HPA, MAX WINDS 95 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 20.0N, 128.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY
AIR AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN
EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOW SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 20.0N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 261200UTC 20.9N 129.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 271200UTC 21.5N 128.4E 95NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 281200UTC 23.1N 126.2E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
96HF 291200UTC 25.8N 125.2E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
120HF 301200UTC 29.7N 128.8E 290NM 70.
MOVE NE 13KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 251200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 251200UTC 20.0N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTH 240NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 261200UTC 20.9N 129.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 271200UTC 21.5N 128.4E 95NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 281200UTC 23.1N 126.2E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 250900
WARNING 250900.
WARNING VALID 260900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 915 HPA
AT 20.0N 128.9E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260900UTC AT 20.9N 129.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 250900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250900UTC 20.0N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTH 220NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 260900UTC 20.9N 129.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 270600UTC 21.2N 128.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 280600UTC 22.7N 126.7E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 250900
WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 180925074616
2018092506 28W TRAMI 019 01 025 04 SATL 035
T000 199N 1289E 135 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 095 SE QD 095 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 170 SE QD 170 SW QD 175 NW QD
T012 203N 1290E 130 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 207N 1290E 130 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 210N 1289E 125 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 214N 1286E 120 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 230N 1269E 115 R064 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 210 SW QD 250 NW QD
T096 260N 1263E 110 R064 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 120 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 220 SE QD 220 SW QD 250 NW QD
T120 297N 1296E 100 R064 070 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 220 SE QD 250 SW QD 230 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 19.9N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.3N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.7N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.0N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.4N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.0N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 26.0N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 29.7N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 128.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z,
252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.//
2818091912 126N1480E 20
2818091918 127N1474E 20
2818092000 128N1468E 20
2818092006 129N1462E 20
2818092012 132N1456E 20
2818092018 138N1451E 25
2818092100 145N1442E 30
2818092106 151N1434E 35
2818092112 156N1425E 40
2818092118 160N1413E 45
2818092200 162N1402E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092506 199N1289E 135
2818092506 199N1289E 135


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 019
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250600Z --- NEAR 19.9N 128.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.9N 128.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.3N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.7N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.0N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270600Z --- 21.4N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280600Z --- 23.0N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290600Z --- 26.0N 126.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300600Z --- 29.7N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
230 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250900Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 128.9E.
SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 401 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 250600Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 251500Z,
252100Z, 260300Z AND 260900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 19.8N, 128.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 250600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16
NAME 1824 TRAMI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 250600UTC 19.8N 128.8E
MOVEMENT N 2KT
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 260600UTC 20.4N 128.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
48HR
POSITION 270600UTC 21.3N 128.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 930HPA 97KT
72HR
POSITION 280600UTC 22.7N 126.3E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
96HR
POSITION 290600UTC 25.1N 124.7E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
120HR
POSITION 300600UTC 28.5N 127.3E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 945HPA 87KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 250600
WARNING 250600.
WARNING VALID 260600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 915 HPA
AT 19.8N 128.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 20.1N 129.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260600UTC AT 20.6N 129.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270600UTC AT 21.2N 128.7E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280600UTC AT 22.7N 126.7E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 19.8N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTH 220NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 260600UTC 20.6N 129.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 270600UTC 21.2N 128.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 280600UTC 22.7N 126.7E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 290600UTC 25.4N 125.1E 200NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
120HF 300600UTC 28.0N 127.0E 290NM 70.
MOVE NNE 08KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 250600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250600UTC 19.8N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTH 220NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 260600UTC 20.6N 129.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 270600UTC 21.2N 128.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 280600UTC 22.7N 126.7E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 250300
WARNING 250300.
WARNING VALID 260300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 915 HPA
AT 19.6N 128.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 220 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 19.9N 128.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260300UTC AT 20.5N 129.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 250300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250300UTC 19.6N 128.8E GOOD
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTH 220NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 260300UTC 20.5N 129.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 270000UTC 21.3N 129.0E 110NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 280000UTC 22.2N 127.1E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 250300
WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 180925010020
2018092500 28W TRAMI 018 01 250 03 SATL 020
T000 195N 1287E 140 R064 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 165 SE QD 150 SW QD 175 NW QD
T012 199N 1286E 135 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 190 NW QD
T024 203N 1286E 125 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 208N 1286E 115 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 190 NW QD
T048 212N 1285E 110 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 190 NW QD
T072 223N 1269E 105 R064 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW Q
D 120 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 200 SE QD 200 SW QD 240 NW QD
T096 245N 1250E 105 R064 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 120 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 230 SE QD 260 SW QD 270 NW QD
T120 281N 1264E 115 R064 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 120 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 250 SE QD 270 SW QD 250 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 19.5N 128.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 128.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.9N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.3N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.8N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.2N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.3N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.5N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 28.1N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 128.7E.
SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND
260300Z.//
2818091912 126N1480E 20
2818091918 127N1474E 20
2818092000 128N1468E 20
2818092006 129N1462E 20
2818092012 132N1456E 20
2818092018 138N1451E 25
2818092100 145N1442E 30
2818092106 151N1434E 35
2818092112 156N1425E 40
2818092118 160N1413E 45
2818092200 162N1402E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092418 196N1290E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140
2818092500 195N1287E 140


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 19.5N 128.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.5N 128.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 19.9N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.3N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.8N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 21.2N 128.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 22.3N 126.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 24.5N 125.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
270 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 28.1N 126.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 19.6N 128.7E.
SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 423 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
250000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z AND
260300Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 250000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 128.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 128.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR IN THE DIRECTION OF THE MOVEMENT. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 250000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15
NAME 1824 TRAMI
ANALYSIS
POSITION 250000UTC 19.6N 128.8E
MOVEMENT W 3KT
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 260000UTC 20.7N 128.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 920HPA 103KT
48HR
POSITION 270000UTC 21.5N 128.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 925HPA 99KT
72HR
POSITION 280000UTC 22.5N 126.8E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 935HPA 95KT
96HR
POSITION 290000UTC 24.7N 124.9E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
120HR
POSITION 300000UTC 27.5N 125.9E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 940HPA 91KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 250000
WARNING 250000.
WARNING VALID 260000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 915 HPA
AT 19.6N 128.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251200UTC AT 19.8N 128.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 260000UTC AT 20.4N 128.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 270000UTC AT 21.3N 129.0E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 280000UTC AT 22.2N 127.1E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 19.6N 128.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 20.4N 128.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 270000UTC 21.3N 129.0E 110NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 280000UTC 22.2N 127.1E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 290000UTC 24.3N 124.5E 200NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
120HF 300000UTC 27.2N 124.6E 290NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 250000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 250000UTC 19.6N 128.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 260000UTC 20.4N 128.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 270000UTC 21.3N 129.0E 110NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 280000UTC 22.2N 127.1E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 242100
WARNING 242100.
WARNING VALID 252100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 915 HPA
AT 19.7N 128.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 19.9N 128.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 252100UTC AT 20.4N 128.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ20 RJTD 242100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 242100UTC 19.7N 128.9E GOOD
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 252100UTC 20.4N 128.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
45HF 261800UTC 21.1N 129.1E 110NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
69HF 271800UTC 22.0N 128.0E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 242100
WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 180924190206
2018092418 28W TRAMI 017 01 300 06 SATL 015
T000 196N 1291E 140 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW Q
D 105 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T012 200N 1287E 145 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW Q
D 105 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 190 SE QD 155 SW QD 200 NW QD
T024 203N 1286E 140 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW Q
D 105 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 180 SE QD 150 SW QD 190 NW QD
T036 208N 1286E 135 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 213N 1287E 125 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T072 224N 1276E 115 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 200 NW QD
T096 243N 1256E 105 R064 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 120 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 220 SE QD 230 SW QD 250 NW QD
T120 276N 1261E 115 R064 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 130 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 230 SE QD 240 SW QD 260 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 129.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.0N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.3N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.8N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.3N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.4N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.3N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 27.6N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 129.0E.
SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241800Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND
252100Z.//
2818091912 126N1480E 20
2818091918 127N1474E 20
2818092000 128N1468E 20
2818092006 129N1462E 20
2818092012 132N1456E 20
2818092018 138N1451E 25
2818092100 145N1442E 30
2818092106 151N1434E 35
2818092112 156N1425E 40
2818092118 160N1413E 45
2818092200 162N1402E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092418 196N1291E 140
2818092418 196N1291E 140
2818092418 196N1291E 140


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 017
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 19.6N 129.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 129.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 20.0N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 20.3N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
190 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260600Z --- 20.8N 128.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261800Z --- 21.3N 128.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271800Z --- 22.4N 127.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281800Z --- 24.3N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291800Z --- 27.6N 126.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 19.7N 129.0E.
SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 420 NM SOUTH OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
241800Z IS 41 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250300Z, 250900Z, 251500Z AND
252100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 241800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 129.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 129.1E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND
GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTJP21 RJTD 241800
WARNING 241800.
WARNING VALID 251800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 915 HPA
AT 19.6N 129.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250600UTC AT 19.9N 128.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251800UTC AT 20.2N 128.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 261800UTC AT 21.1N 129.1E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 271800UTC AT 22.0N 128.0E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 241800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241800UTC 19.6N 129.1E GOOD
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 270NM NORTH 200NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 251800UTC 20.2N 128.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 261800UTC 21.1N 129.1E 110NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 271800UTC 22.0N 128.0E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 281800UTC 24.1N 125.4E 200NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
120HF 291800UTC 26.5N 124.5E 290NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 241500
WARNING 241500.
WARNING VALID 251500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 915 HPA
AT 19.5N 129.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 270 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 200 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250300UTC AT 19.8N 128.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 251500UTC AT 20.1N 128.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 241500
WARNING ATCG MIL 28W NWP 180924133354
2018092412 28W TRAMI 016 01 300 08 SATL 030
T000 193N 1297E 130 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 045 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 095 SE QD 085 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 170 SE QD 155 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 197N 1290E 140 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW QD 170 NW QD
T024 200N 1289E 145 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T036 204N 1289E 140 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 208N 1288E 135 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 100 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 180 SW QD 180 NW QD
T072 218N 1280E 125 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 180 SW QD 200 NW QD
T096 235N 1256E 120 R064 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 130 NE QD 130 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 120 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 220 SE QD 230 SW QD 250 NW QD
T120 256N 1241E 110 R064 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 080 NW QD R050 140 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 130 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 230 SE QD 240 SW QD 260 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 19.3N 129.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 129.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.7N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.0N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.4N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.8N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.8N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.5N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 25.6N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 129.5E.
SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
2818091912 126N1480E 20
2818091918 127N1474E 20
2818092000 128N1468E 20
2818092006 129N1462E 20
2818092012 132N1456E 20
2818092018 138N1451E 25
2818092100 145N1442E 30
2818092106 151N1434E 35
2818092112 156N1425E 40
2818092118 160N1413E 45
2818092200 162N1402E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092206 167N1389E 50
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092212 169N1375E 55
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092218 169N1361E 65
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092300 169N1352E 75
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092306 173N1343E 95
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092312 175N1332E 115
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092318 180N1321E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092400 184N1311E 120
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092406 189N1304E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130
2818092412 193N1297E 130


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 241500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241200Z --- NEAR 19.3N 129.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.3N 129.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250000Z --- 19.7N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 20.0N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 20.4N 128.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 20.8N 128.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 135 KT, GUSTS 165 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
271200Z --- 21.8N 128.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 23.5N 125.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 25.6N 124.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
260 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
241500Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 129.5E.
SUPER TYPHOON 28W (TRAMI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 445 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241200Z IS 36 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 242100Z, 250300Z, 250900Z AND 251500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 241200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 19.3N, 129.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND
THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 241200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 241200UTC 19.3N 129.7E GOOD
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 251200UTC 19.9N 128.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 261200UTC 20.5N 129.1E 110NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 271200UTC 21.5N 128.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 281200UTC 23.2N 126.4E 200NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
120HF 291200UTC 25.9N 125.2E 290NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT =


Original Message :

WTJP31 RJTD 240900
WARNING 240900.
WARNING VALID 250900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1824 TRAMI (1824) 925 HPA
AT 19.1N 130.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 242100UTC AT 19.6N 129.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
925 HPA, MAX WINDS 100 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 250900UTC AT 19.7N 129.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
915 HPA, MAX WINDS 105 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 240600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 18.9N, 130.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240600UTC 18.9N 130.4E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 250600UTC 19.7N 128.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 260600UTC 20.4N 129.2E 110NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 270600UTC 21.3N 128.9E 130NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 280600UTC 23.0N 126.9E 200NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
120HF 290600UTC 25.3N 125.1E 290NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 240000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 18.4N, 131.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND THE EYE IN MICROWAVE
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
HIGH TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS AN EYE. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS
OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE
CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT72 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND HIGH TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 240000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 240000UTC 18.4N 131.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 250000UTC 19.5N 129.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
48HF 260000UTC 20.2N 129.0E 110NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 270000UTC 20.9N 128.8E 130NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 280000UTC 22.3N 127.1E 200NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
120HF 290000UTC 24.8N 125.0E 290NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ30 RJTD 231800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY TRAMI IS LOCATED AT 18.1N, 132.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY
IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. IT HAS ALSO DEVELOPED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN REMAIN ALMOST
STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND REDUCED
TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 231800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231800UTC 18.1N 132.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
50KT 90NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 241800UTC 19.6N 129.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 251800UTC 20.0N 128.8E 95NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 261800UTC 20.5N 128.6E 130NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 271800UTC 21.5N 127.0E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
120HF 281800UTC 23.4N 123.9E 290NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 231200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 231200UTC 17.5N 133.3E GOOD
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
50KT 80NM
30KT 240NM NORTH 150NM SOUTH
FORECAST
24HF 241200UTC 19.1N 130.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
48HF 251200UTC 19.8N 128.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 261200UTC 20.4N 128.4E 130NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 271200UTC 21.0N 127.1E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
120HF 281200UTC 22.4N 123.8E 290NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 230600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230600UTC 17.3N 134.3E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240600UTC 19.1N 130.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
48HF 250600UTC 19.8N 128.8E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 260600UTC 20.4N 128.1E 130NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 270600UTC 20.8N 127.1E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
120HF 280600UTC 21.8N 123.9E 290NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 230000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 230000UTC 16.9N 135.1E FAIR
MOVE W 13KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 240000UTC 18.7N 131.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
48HF 250000UTC 19.7N 128.9E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 260000UTC 20.1N 128.1E 130NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 270000UTC 20.5N 127.0E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
120HF 280000UTC 21.1N 124.0E 290NM 70.
MOVE W 07KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 221800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1824 TRAMI (1824) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221800UTC 17.1N 136.2E FAIR
MOVE W 15KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 45NM
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 231800UTC 18.3N 132.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 241800UTC 19.5N 129.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
72HF 251800UTC 20.1N 128.7E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 261800UTC 20.6N 127.7E 200NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
120HF 271800UTC 21.4N 125.0E 290NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 221200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 221200UTC 17.0N 137.8E FAIR
MOVE WNW 16KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 231200UTC 17.9N 133.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 241200UTC 19.1N 130.4E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 09KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 251200UTC 19.6N 129.1E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
96HF 261200UTC 20.1N 128.5E 200NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
120HF 271200UTC 21.0N 126.7E 290NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 220600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1824 TRAMI (1824) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220600UTC 16.4N 139.3E FAIR
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 210NM NORTHEAST 120NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230600UTC 17.1N 135.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 240600UTC 18.8N 131.2E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 915HPA
MXWD 105KT
GUST 150KT
72HF 250600UTC 19.4N 129.4E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 925HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 260600UTC 19.6N 128.7E 240NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
120HF 270600UTC 19.9N 127.5E 375NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 220000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220000UTC 15.9N 141.0E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 230000UTC 17.0N 136.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 240000UTC 18.2N 132.3E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 095KT
GUST 135KT
72HF 250000UTC 19.1N 129.7E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW 07KT
PRES 935HPA
MXWD 100KT
GUST 140KT
96HF 260000UTC 19.4N 128.8E 240NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
120HF 270000UTC 19.7N 127.8E 375NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY =


Original Message :

WTPQ50 RJTD 211800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1824 TRAMI (1824)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 211800UTC 15.5N 141.6E FAIR
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 180NM NORTHEAST 90NM SOUTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 221800UTC 16.8N 137.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE WNW 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 231800UTC 17.9N 132.9E 110NM 70.
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 241800UTC 19.2N 130.0E 130NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT
96HF 251800UTC 19.6N 129.0E 240NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
120HF 261800UTC 19.9N 128.8E 375NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY =