Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for BEBINCA-18 in Viet Nam, Laos, Thailand, China from 12 Aug 2018 12:00 UTC to 17 Aug 2018 00:00 UTC

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Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for BEBINCA-18

in Viet Nam, Laos, Thailand, China

Global Telecommunication Service

GTS (Global Telecommunication Service) is the official Warning and Alerting channel by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) adopted by several Warning Organizations. As soon as a new GTS message regarding Tropical Cyclones(WT) or Tsunami(WE) the messages are processed and possibly assigned to the specific event. When a new GTS message is present an new tab in the specific event report page is present.The presence of a GTS message is shown in the homepage with a dedicated icon.

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Measurements Levels

SOURCE	GAUGE LOCATION	LAT	LON	TIME (UTC)	HEIGHT (m)	PERIOD (min)

17/08 07:25 WTPQ22RJTD170600

17/08 05:31 WTSS20VHHH170445

17/08 04:25 WTPQ22RJTD170300

17/08 03:31 WTPN33PGTW170300

17/08 02:31 WTSS20VHHH170145

17/08 02:25 WTPQ32RJTD170000

17/08 01:31 WTJP23RJTD170000

17/08 01:25 WTPQ22RJTD170000

16/08 22:25 WTPQ22RJTD162100

16/08 21:31 WTPN33PGTW162100

16/08 20:31 WTSS20VHHH161945

16/08 20:25 WTPQ32RJTD161800

16/08 19:31 WTJP23RJTD161800

16/08 19:25 WTPQ22RJTD161800

16/08 17:31 WTSS20VHHH161645

16/08 16:31 WTJP33RJTD161500

16/08 16:25 WTPQ22RJTD161500

16/08 15:31 WTPN33PGTW161500

16/08 14:31 WTSS20VHHH161345

16/08 14:25 WTPQ32RJTD161200

16/08 13:31 WTJP23RJTD161200

16/08 13:25 WTPQ22RJTD161200

16/08 11:31 WTSS20VHHH161045

16/08 10:25 WTPQ22RJTD160900

16/08 09:31 WTPN33PGTW160900

16/08 08:31 WTSS20VHHH160745

16/08 08:25 WTPQ32RJTD160600

16/08 07:31 WTJP23RJTD160600

16/08 07:25 WTPQ22RJTD160600

16/08 04:25 WTPQ22RJTD160300

16/08 03:32 WTPN33PGTW160300

16/08 02:31 WTSS20VHHH160145

16/08 02:25 WTPQ32RJTD160000

16/08 01:31 WTJP23RJTD160000

16/08 01:25 WTPQ22RJTD160000

15/08 23:31 WTSS20VHHH152245

15/08 22:26 WTPQ22RJTD152100

15/08 21:32 WTPN33PGTW152100

15/08 20:31 WTSS20VHHH151945

15/08 20:25 WTPQ32RJTD151800

15/08 19:31 WTKO20RKSL151800

15/08 19:31 WTJP23RJTD151800

15/08 19:25 WTPQ22RJTD151800

15/08 16:25 WTPQ22RJTD151500

15/08 14:31 WTSS20VHHH151345

15/08 14:31 WTPN33PGTW151500

15/08 14:25 WTPQ32RJTD151200

15/08 13:31 WTJP23RJTD151200

15/08 13:25 WTPQ22RJTD151200

15/08 11:31 WTSS20VHHH151045

15/08 10:25 WTPQ22RJTD150900

15/08 09:31 WTPN33PGTW150900

15/08 08:31 WTSS20VHHH150745

15/08 08:31 WTKO20RKSL150600

15/08 08:25 WTPQ32RJTD150600

15/08 07:31 WTJP23RJTD150600

15/08 07:25 WTPQ22RJTD150600

15/08 05:31 WTSS20VHHH150445

15/08 04:25 WTPQ22RJTD150300

15/08 03:31 WTPN33PGTW150300

15/08 02:25 WTPQ32RJTD150000

15/08 01:31 WTJP23RJTD150000

15/08 01:25 WTPQ22RJTD150000

14/08 23:31 WTSS20VHHH142245

14/08 22:27 WTPQ22RJTD142100

14/08 20:31 WTSS20VHHH141945

14/08 20:31 WTPN33PGTW142100

14/08 20:25 WTPQ32RJTD141800

14/08 19:32 WTKO20RKSL141800

14/08 19:32 WTJP23RJTD141800

14/08 19:25 WTPQ22RJTD141800

14/08 17:32 WTSS20VHHH141645

14/08 16:25 WTPQ22RJTD141500

14/08 15:25 WTPQ32RJTD141200

14/08 14:32 WTSS20VHHH141345

14/08 14:32 WTPN33PGTW141500

14/08 13:31 WTKO20RKSL141200

14/08 13:31 WTJP23RJTD141200

14/08 13:25 WTPQ22RJTD141200

14/08 11:32 WTSS20VHHH141045

14/08 10:25 WTPQ22RJTD140900

14/08 08:31 WTSS20VHHH140745

14/08 08:31 WTPN33PGTW140900

14/08 08:25 WTPQ32RJTD140600

14/08 07:32 WTKO20RKSL140600

14/08 07:32 WTJP23RJTD140600

14/08 07:25 WTPQ22RJTD140600

14/08 05:31 WTSS20VHHH140445

14/08 04:25 WTPQ22RJTD140300

14/08 03:32 WTPN33PGTW140300

14/08 02:31 WTSS20VHHH140145

14/08 02:25 WTPQ32RJTD140000

14/08 01:31 WTJP23RJTD140000

14/08 01:25 WTPQ52RJTD140000

14/08 01:25 WTPQ22RJTD140000

13/08 23:32 WTSS20VHHH132245

13/08 22:25 WTPQ22RJTD132100

13/08 21:31 WTPN33PGTW132100

13/08 20:31 WTSS20VHHH131945

13/08 20:25 WTPQ32RJTD131800

13/08 19:32 WTJP23RJTD131800

13/08 19:25 WTPQ52RJTD131800

13/08 19:25 WTPQ22RJTD131800

13/08 17:31 WTSS20VHHH131645

13/08 16:25 WTPQ22RJTD131500

13/08 15:31 WTPN33PGTW131500

13/08 14:31 WTSS20VHHH131345

13/08 14:25 WTPQ32RJTD131200

13/08 13:32 WTJP23RJTD131200

13/08 13:25 WTPQ52RJTD131200

13/08 13:25 WTPQ22RJTD131200

13/08 11:31 WTSS20VHHH131045

13/08 10:25 WTPQ22RJTD130900

13/08 08:46 WTSS20VHHH130745

13/08 08:46 WTSS20VHHH130445

13/08 08:46 WTPN33PGTW130900

13/08 08:46 WTJP23RJTD130600

13/08 08:46 WTJP23RJTD130000

13/08 08:25 WTPQ32RJTD130600

13/08 07:25 WTPQ52RJTD130600

13/08 07:25 WTPQ22RJTD130600

13/08 04:25 WTPQ22RJTD130300

13/08 03:31 WTPN33PGTW130300

13/08 03:25 WTPQ32RJTD130000RRA

13/08 03:25 WTPQ32RJTD130000

13/08 02:25 WTPQ52RJTD130000

13/08 01:25 WTPQ22RJTD130000

12/08 21:32 WTPN33PGTW122100

12/08 14:46 WTPN33PGTW121500

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 170600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD DOWNGRADED FROM TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170600UTC 19N 104E
MOVE WSW 10KT
PRES 996HPA =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 170445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 170300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE
ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

NO FURTHER WARNINGS ON THIS TROPICAL STORM WILL BE ISSUED
BY THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY UNLESS RE-INTENSIFICATION
TAKES PLACE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 170300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170300UTC 19.4N 104.8E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 180300UTC 19.0N 104.0E 60NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 019
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 19.4N 105.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.4N 105.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.1N 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.1N 101.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.2N 100.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 105.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING SYSTEM WITH STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR
BEGINNING TO DECOUPLE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE MASS OF
DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AS WELL AS SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS IN THE REGION. A 162234Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SUPPORTS
THIS POSITION AND REVEALS THAT THE LLCC IS DISPLACED TO THE EASTERN
EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS ESTIMATED AT
50 KNOTS BASED ON EXPECTED WEAKENING AND THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS
FROM ANY LOCAL OBSERVATIONS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS MODERATE
TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND STRONG DIFFLUENT EQUATORWARD FLOW.
TS 20W IS OVERLAND TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE WESTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION BY TAU 36 DUE TO HIGH VWS AND
LAND INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT; THEREFORE, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) FINAL
WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM. REFER TO TYPHOON 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS
(WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 170145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 170000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 986 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE
ZERO FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (105.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000282200
06810

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BEBINCA IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 105.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS ARE
SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED
PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 170000
WARNING 170000.
WARNING VALID 180000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) 992 HPA
AT 19.6N 105.3E VIETNAM MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 19.2N 104.4E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 170000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 170000UTC 19.6N 105.3E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 90NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 180000UTC 19.2N 104.4E 60NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 162100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 162100UTC 19.7N 105.9E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 172100UTC 19.2N 104.4E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 018
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 19.8N 106.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.8N 106.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.6N 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.4N 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.4N 101.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 19.8N 106.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 82 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND
172100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK)
WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 161945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 161800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (19.6 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (106.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (104.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000021300
04611

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BEBINCA IS LOCATED AT 19.6N, 106.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASED VWS.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT06 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT06 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS
CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD
INTENSITY BY FT24. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 161800
WARNING 161800.
WARNING VALID 171800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 990 HPA
AT 19.6N 106.3E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 19.1N 104.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 19.6N 106.3E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 90NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 19.1N 104.5E 50NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 161645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 161500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7
N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (106.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N)
ONE ZERO THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (103.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000011100
03801

Original Message :

WTJP33 RJTD 161500
WARNING 161500.
WARNING VALID 171500.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) 980 HPA
AT 19.8N 106.8E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 90 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171500UTC AT 19.0N 104.7E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 161500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161500UTC 19.8N 106.8E FAIR
MOVE WSW 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 90NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 171500UTC 19.0N 104.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 181200UTC 18.9N 103.5E 95NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 161500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 017
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161200Z --- NEAR 20.0N 107.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 265 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.0N 107.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.7N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.6N 103.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.7N 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
161500Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 106.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 162100Z, 170300Z,
170900Z AND 171500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA)
WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 161345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 161200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8
N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (107.1 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171200 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N)
ONE ZERO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (103.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000090200
02823

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR STS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS BEBINCA IS LOCATED AT 19.8N, 107.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR UNTIL FT06 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER LAND.
THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 161200
WARNING 161200.
WARNING VALID 171200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL
STORM 980 HPA
AT 19.8N 107.3E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 18.9N 104.8E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 18.9N 103.5E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 161200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1816 BEBINCA (1816) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161200UTC 19.8N 107.3E FAIR
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 171200UTC 18.9N 104.8E 60NM 70.
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 181200UTC 18.9N 103.5E 95NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 161045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 160900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9
N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (107.6 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (104.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000117900
01723

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 160900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160900UTC 20.1N 107.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 170900UTC 19.3N 105.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 180600UTC 19.2N 101.7E 95NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 160900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 016
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160600Z --- NEAR 20.1N 107.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 107.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.9N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.8N 104.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.9N 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160900Z POSITION NEAR 20.0N 107.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 110 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z
AND 170900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS
(WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 160745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 160600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0
N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC
ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (105.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000011100
00930

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BEBINCA IS LOCATED AT 20.1N, 107.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE WEST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT
VIET-NAM BY FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS CONTINUED PRESENCE OVER LAND.
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 160600
WARNING 160600.
WARNING VALID 170600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) 985 HPA
AT 20.1N 107.9E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING SOUTHWEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 19.4N 105.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 19.2N 101.7E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 160600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160600UTC 20.1N 107.9E FAIR
MOVE SW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 170600UTC 19.4N 105.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE WSW 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
48HF 180600UTC 19.2N 101.7E 95NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 160300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160300UTC 20.3N 108.0E FAIR
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 170300UTC 19.7N 105.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
45HF 180000UTC 19.2N 102.8E 95NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 160300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 015
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
160000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 108.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 13 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 108.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 19.5N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.5N 105.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.6N 103.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.3N 101.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
160300Z POSITION NEAR 19.9N 108.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 156 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 13
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
160000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND
170300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31
PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA)
WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL
STORM 22W (SOULIK) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 160145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 160000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N) ONE
ZERO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (108.6 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170000 UTC
ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BEBINCA IS LOCATED AT 20.4N, 108.3E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE
TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY BY FT48.
THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE
DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 160000
WARNING 160000.
WARNING VALID 170000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) 990 HPA
AT 20.4N 108.3E GULF OF TONGKING MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 19.9N 105.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 19.2N 102.8E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
1000 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 160000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 20.4N 108.3E FAIR
MOVE W 10KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 19.9N 105.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 180000UTC 19.2N 102.8E 95NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 152245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 152100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE
ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E) AND IS FORECAST
TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 162100 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (107.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000102100
97563

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 152100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 152100UTC 20.4N 109.0E FAIR
MOVE WSW 09KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 162100UTC 20.0N 107.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 171800UTC 20.1N 106.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 181800UTC 22.5N 108.2E 150NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 152100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 014
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 109.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 109.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 19.7N 108.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.6N 105.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 20.2N 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 21.6N 100.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 20.4N 109.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM EAST
OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z
IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) FINAL WARNING (WTPN31 PGTW).
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO)
WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 151945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 151800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE
ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161800 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (107.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000112300
96796

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BEBINCA IS LOCATED AT 20.6N, 109.9E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
LOW TCHP. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 151800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 1816 BEBINCA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 151800UTC 20.6N 109.9E
MOVEMENT WSW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 161800UTC 20.2N 107.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT
48HR
POSITION 171800UTC 20.1N 103.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 151800
WARNING 151800.
WARNING VALID 161800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) 990 HPA
AT 20.6N 109.9E SOUTH CHINA MOVING WEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 20.1N 108.0E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 20.1N 106.7E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 22.5N 108.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 151800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151800UTC 20.6N 109.9E FAIR
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 161800UTC 20.1N 108.0E 60NM 70.
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 171800UTC 20.1N 106.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 181800UTC 22.5N 108.2E 150NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 151500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151500UTC 20.7N 110.5E FAIR
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 161500UTC 20.3N 108.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 171200UTC 20.2N 106.9E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 181200UTC 21.2N 105.3E 130NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 151345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 151200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9
N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161200 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171200 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (105.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000123400
95165

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 013
05 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
151200Z --- NEAR 21.0N 110.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 110.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.7N 109.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.5N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.2N 107.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.0N 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.2N 102.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
151500Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 110.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 200 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 22W (TWENTYTWO) WARNINGS (WTPN35 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BEBINCA IS LOCATED AT 20.8N, 110.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. GCOM-W/AMSR2
89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN TO TD INTENSITY
BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 151200
WARNING 151200.
WARNING VALID 161200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) 990 HPA
AT 20.8N 110.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 20.4N 109.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 20.2N 106.9E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 21.2N 105.3E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 151200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 151200UTC 20.8N 110.7E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 161200UTC 20.4N 109.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 171200UTC 20.2N 106.9E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 181200UTC 21.2N 105.3E 130NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 151045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 150900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (105.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000011400
93933

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 150900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150900UTC 21.0N 110.9E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 160900UTC 20.2N 109.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 170600UTC 19.9N 106.3E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
69HF 180600UTC 20.3N 102.5E 130NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 012
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 111.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 111.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.8N 110.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 20.5N 109.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 20.2N 107.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.9N 106.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.0N 102.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150900Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 111.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 21W (RUMBIA) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 150745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 150600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000031800
93072

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 150600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME 1816 BEBINCA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 150600UTC 20.9N 111.7E
MOVEMENT W 3KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 160600UTC 20.5N 109.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT
48HR
POSITION 170600UTC 20.0N 105.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 35KT
72HR
POSITION 180600UTC 20.4N 102.2E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 25KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BEBINCA IS LOCATED AT 21.0N, 111.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR IS UNFAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM
DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB
CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR UNTIL FT24 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT
DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72
DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 150600
WARNING 150600.
WARNING VALID 160600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) 990 HPA
AT 21.0N 111.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 20.2N 109.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 19.9N 106.3E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 20.3N 102.5E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 150600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150600UTC 21.0N 111.4E FAIR
MOVE WNW 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 160600UTC 20.2N 109.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 170600UTC 19.9N 106.3E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 180600UTC 20.3N 102.5E 130NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 150445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 150300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9
N) ONE ONE ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (111.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (109.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC
ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (106.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000011100
91975

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 150300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150300UTC 21.0N 111.9E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 160300UTC 20.4N 109.7E 60NM 70.
MOVE WSW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 170000UTC 19.9N 106.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 180000UTC 20.1N 102.3E 130NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 150300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 011
04 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
150000Z --- NEAR 20.8N 112.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 112.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 20.7N 111.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.4N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.1N 108.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 19.7N 106.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 19.7N 102.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
150300Z POSITION NEAR 20.8N 112.0E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 143 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
150000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND
160300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32
PGTW) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THAT SYSTEM. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM
19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 21W (TWENTYONE) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BEBINCA IS LOCATED AT 20.8N, 112.0E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND STARTING TO FORM A CURVED BAND.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 150000
WARNING 150000.
WARNING VALID 160000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) 990 HPA
AT 20.8N 112.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 20.6N 110.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 19.9N 106.6E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 20.1N 102.3E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 150000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 150000UTC 20.8N 112.0E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 160000UTC 20.6N 110.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 170000UTC 19.9N 106.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 180000UTC 20.1N 102.3E 130NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 142245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 142100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ONE
TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 30 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 162100 UTC
ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (19.9 N)
ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC
ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N)
ONE ZERO TWO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (102.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 182100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000010100
89553

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 142100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 142100UTC 21.0N 112.2E FAIR
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 152100UTC 20.5N 110.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 161800UTC 19.8N 107.3E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 171800UTC 19.4N 102.7E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 141945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 141800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N) ONE ONE
TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 30 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161800 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (20.0 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (107.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171800 UTC
ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N)
ONE ZERO TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (102.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 142100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 010
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141800Z --- NEAR 21.0N 113.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 113.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 20.9N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.6N 110.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 20.3N 109.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 19.9N 108.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.9N 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 21.1N 99.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
142100Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 112.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 99 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 18
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BEBINCA IS LOCATED AT 21.1N, 112.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE
LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS,
AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
TO TD INTENSITY BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 141800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8
NAME 1816 BEBINCA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 141800UTC 20.8N 113.1E
MOVEMENT SSW 4KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 151800UTC 20.7N 110.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 161800UTC 20.1N 107.7E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT
72HR
POSITION 171800UTC 19.8N 104.0E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 25KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 141800
WARNING 141800.
WARNING VALID 151800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) 990 HPA
AT 21.1N 112.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 20.7N 110.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 19.8N 107.3E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 19.4N 102.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 141800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141800UTC 21.1N 112.7E FAIR
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 151800UTC 20.7N 110.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 161800UTC 19.8N 107.3E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 171800UTC 19.4N 102.7E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 141645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 141500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ONE
THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (113.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 30 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (110.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (107.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171500 UTC
ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (104.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 141500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141500UTC 21.0N 113.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 151500UTC 20.9N 111.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 161200UTC 20.2N 108.5E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 171200UTC 19.6N 103.8E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BEBINCA IS LOCATED AT 21.0N, 113.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE
LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY
FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 141345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 141200 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ONE
THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 30 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161200 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171200 UTC
ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (104.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 181200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000015400
87205

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 141500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 009
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
141200Z --- NEAR 21.0N 113.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 113.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.1N 112.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.1N 111.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 20.7N 110.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.4N 108.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.6N 104.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 20.3N 101.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
141500Z POSITION NEAR 21.0N 113.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 141200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7
NAME 1816 BEBINCA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 141200UTC 21.2N 113.2E
MOVEMENT WNW 5KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 151200UTC 21.2N 111.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 161200UTC 20.8N 108.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT
72HR
POSITION 171200UTC 20.0N 104.8E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 29KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 141200
WARNING 141200.
WARNING VALID 151200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) 990 HPA
AT 21.0N 113.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 21.0N 111.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 20.2N 108.5E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 171200UTC AT 19.6N 103.8E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 141200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 141200UTC 21.0N 113.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 151200UTC 21.0N 111.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
48HF 161200UTC 20.2N 108.5E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 171200UTC 19.6N 103.8E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 141045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 140900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH CENTRAL
PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL
MILES OF TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ONE
THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO
MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 30 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (111.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC
ONE NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (19.7 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (105.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000009400
86143

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 140900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140900UTC 21.1N 113.5E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 150900UTC 21.2N 111.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 160600UTC 20.7N 108.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 170600UTC 19.5N 103.3E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 140745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 140600 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 30 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (112.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC
ONE NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (19.8 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (105.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 008
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140600Z --- NEAR 21.0N 113.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.0N 113.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.3N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.5N 112.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.3N 110.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 20.9N 109.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.9N 105.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 20.1N 102.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
140900Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 113.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 83 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140600Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND
150900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BEBINCA IS LOCATED AT 21.0N, 113.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
GATHERING AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL HIT VIET-NAM BY FT72. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 140600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME 1816 BEBINCA
ANALYSIS
POSITION 140600UTC 21.0N 113.7E
MOVEMENT NNE 4KT
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 39KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 150600UTC 21.3N 112.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 160600UTC 21.0N 109.5E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 43KT
72HR
POSITION 170600UTC 20.5N 105.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 140600
WARNING 140600.
WARNING VALID 150600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) 990 HPA
AT 21.0N 113.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 21.6N 111.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 20.7N 108.0E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 19.5N 103.3E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 140600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140600UTC 21.0N 113.7E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 150600UTC 21.6N 111.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 160600UTC 20.7N 108.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 170600UTC 19.5N 103.3E 140NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 140445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 140300 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9
N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (113.7 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (21.8 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (108.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (104.0 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000020400
84250

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 140300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140300UTC 21.0N 113.6E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 150300UTC 21.9N 112.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 160000UTC 21.6N 109.2E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 170000UTC 20.2N 105.0E 170NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 140300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 007
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
140000Z --- NEAR 20.9N 113.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 030 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.9N 113.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.6N 114.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.9N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.9N 111.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.7N 110.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
170000Z --- 20.5N 106.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 20.5N 103.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
140300Z POSITION NEAR 21.1N 113.8E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
140000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND
150300Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS
(WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 140145

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 140000 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8
N) ONE ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (113.8 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150000 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (21.7 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160000 UTC
TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (109.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170000 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (20.1 N)
ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (104.5 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 180000 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 7 FOR TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BEBINCA IS LOCATED AT 20.9N, 113.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR.
THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS
OF ITS STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
ARE SCATTERED AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 140000
WARNING 140000.
WARNING VALID 150000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) 990 HPA
AT 20.9N 113.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 22.0N 113.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 21.6N 109.2E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 170000UTC AT 20.2N 105.0E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA.
BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 20.9N 113.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 22.0N 113.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 160000UTC 21.6N 109.2E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 170000UTC 20.2N 105.0E 170NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 140000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 140000UTC 20.9N 113.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 150000UTC 22.0N 113.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 160000UTC 21.6N 109.2E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 09KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 170000UTC 20.2N 105.0E 170NM 70. TROPICAL DEPRESSION =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 132245

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 132100 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7
N) ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 142100 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 152100 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N)
ONE ZERO NINE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (109.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 162100 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (20.2 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (105.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 172100 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 132100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 132100UTC 20.1N 113.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 142100UTC 21.1N 112.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 151800UTC 21.0N 110.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 161800UTC 20.3N 105.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 006
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 20.5N 113.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.5N 113.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.7N 113.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.0N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.0N 112.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 20.9N 110.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161800Z --- 20.4N 107.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 19.7N 104.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 20.3N 100.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 113.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 117 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 140300Z, 140900Z, 141500Z AND 142100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW 132100)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW 132100)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 131945

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 131800 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (21.5 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (113.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151800 UTC
TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161800 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (20.3 N)
ONE ZERO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (105.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171800 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000012400
81044

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 6 FOR TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BEBINCA IS LOCATED AT 20.1N, 113.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS,
STRONG VWS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW ARE NOW DISTINCT. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 131800
WARNING 131800.
WARNING VALID 141800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) 990 HPA
AT 20.1N 113.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141800UTC AT 21.0N 113.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151800UTC AT 21.0N 110.6E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161800UTC AT 20.3N 105.7E WITH 140 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 20.1N 113.2E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 21.0N 113.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 151800UTC 21.0N 110.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 161800UTC 20.3N 105.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 171800UTC 19.9N 103.3E 200NM 70.
MOVE W 06KT
120HF 181800UTC 19.8N 102.2E 290NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 131800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131800UTC 20.1N 113.2E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 60NM
FORECAST
24HF 141800UTC 21.0N 113.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 151800UTC 21.0N 110.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 161800UTC 20.3N 105.7E 140NM 70.
MOVE W 11KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 131645

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 131500 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (112.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151500 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161500 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (20.7 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (107.4 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171500 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 131500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131500UTC 20.2N 113.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 141500UTC 20.9N 113.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 151200UTC 21.4N 111.2E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 161200UTC 20.4N 107.9E 170NM 70.
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 131500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 005
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 20.6N 113.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 01 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 113.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.8N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.0N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.2N 112.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.1N 111.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 20.4N 108.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 19.8N 105.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 19.6N 102.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 113.2E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z, 140300Z, 140900Z AND 141500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 131345

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 131200 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 141200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (21.2 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (112.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 151200 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 161200 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 171200 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000179500
79382

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 5 FOR TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BEBINCA IS LOCATED AT 20.4N, 113.4E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND ANIMATED MSI.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS,
STRONG VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND LAND. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS
HAVE GATHERED AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT24
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND LAND. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND
LAND. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 131200
WARNING 131200.
WARNING VALID 141200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) 990 HPA
AT 20.4N 113.4E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 141200UTC AT 20.9N 113.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 151200UTC AT 21.4N 111.2E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 161200UTC AT 20.4N 107.9E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 20.4N 113.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 20.9N 113.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 151200UTC 21.4N 111.2E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 161200UTC 20.4N 107.9E 170NM 70.
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 171200UTC 19.6N 104.1E 210NM 70.
MOVE W 09KT
120HF 181200UTC 19.7N 102.9E 290NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 131200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 131200UTC 20.4N 113.4E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 141200UTC 20.9N 113.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 151200UTC 21.4N 111.2E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 161200UTC 20.4N 107.9E 170NM 70.
MOVE WSW 08KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 131045

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 130900 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (21.1 N)
ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150900 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ONE ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (110.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160900 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (20.9 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170900 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 130900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130900UTC 20.5N 113.3E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 140900UTC 21.0N 113.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 150600UTC 21.1N 111.5E 95NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 160600UTC 20.6N 109.1E 130NM 70.
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 130745

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 130600 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 90 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160600 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N)
ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170600 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000019100
77350

Original Message :

WTSS20 VHHH 130445

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING

AT 130300 UTC, THE TROPICAL STORM BEBINCA (1816) WITH
CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60
NAUTICAL MILES OF TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) AND IS
FORECAST TO BE SLOW MOVING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES OVER
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE, 120 NAUTICAL MILES ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N)
ONE ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (113.1 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 150300 UTC
TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)
ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 160300 UTC
TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (20.8 N)
ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (107.9 E)
MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.

FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 170300 UTC
DISSIPATED OVER LAND.

0000011100
76190

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 130900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA) WARNING NR 004
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130600Z --- NEAR 20.6N 113.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 090 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 113.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.6N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.9N 113.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.2N 113.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 21.3N 111.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160600Z --- 20.6N 109.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 19.9N 106.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 19.7N 104.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130900Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 113.3E.
TROPICAL STORM 20W (BEBINCA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 116 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 9
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 131500Z, 132100Z, 140300Z AND 140900Z.
REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 130600
WARNING 130600.
WARNING VALID 140600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) 990 HPA
AT 20.6N 113.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140600UTC AT 20.8N 113.2E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150600UTC AT 21.1N 111.5E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160600UTC AT 20.6N 109.1E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTJP23 RJTD 130000
WARNING 130000.
WARNING VALID 140000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1816 BEBINCA (1816) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
992 HPA
AT 20.6N 112.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 20.7N 113.1E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 150000UTC AT 21.3N 111.4E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 160000UTC AT 21.0N 108.5E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 4 FOR TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS BEBINCA IS LOCATED AT 20.6N, 113.2E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT
POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE
SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM
INTENSIFICATION.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LAND AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 20.6N 113.2E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 20.8N 113.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 150600UTC 21.1N 111.5E 95NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 160600UTC 20.6N 109.1E 130NM 70.
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 170600UTC 19.4N 106.2E 210NM 70.
MOVE WSW 07KT
120HF 180600UTC 20.6N 103.9E 290NM 70.
MOVE WNW 06KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 130600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130600UTC 20.6N 113.2E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 140600UTC 20.8N 113.2E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 150600UTC 21.1N 111.5E 95NM 70.
MOVE W SLOWLY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 160600UTC 20.6N 109.1E 130NM 70.
MOVE W 06KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 130300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130300UTC 20.5N 113.1E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 140300UTC 20.7N 113.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
45HF 150000UTC 21.3N 111.4E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 160000UTC 21.0N 108.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNING NR 003
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
130000Z --- NEAR 20.7N 112.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.7N 112.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.7N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 20.9N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.2N 113.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.5N 112.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
160000Z --- 21.5N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
130300Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 113.0E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130000Z
IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130900Z, 131500Z, 132100Z AND 140300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR
SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 130000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS (BEBINCA) STATUS. TS BEBINCA IS
LOCATED AT 20.6N, 112.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR
IS UNFAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM
INTENSIFICATION. DMSP-F15/SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72

Original Message :

WTPQ32 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TS (BEBINCA) STATUS. TS BEBINCA IS
LOCATED AT 20.6N, 112.8E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR
IS UNFAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD
CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC, INDICATING INTERFERENCE FROM
INTENSIFICATION. DMSP-F15/SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS AROUND THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY DUE TO WEAK STEERING FLOW
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE WESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY
OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MOVE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=

Original Message :

WTPQ52 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 20.6N 112.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 20.7N 113.1E 60NM 70.
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 150000UTC 21.3N 111.4E 95NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 160000UTC 21.0N 108.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
96HF 170000UTC 19.8N 106.2E 210NM 70.
MOVE WSW 06KT
120HF 180000UTC 20.3N 104.9E 290NM 70.
MOVE WNW SLOWLY =

Original Message :

WTPQ22 RJTD 130000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1816 BEBINCA (1816) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 130000UTC 20.6N 112.8E FAIR
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 120NM SOUTH 60NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 140000UTC 20.7N 113.1E 60NM 70%
MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 150000UTC 21.3N 111.4E 95NM 70%
MOVE WNW SLOWLY
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
72HF 160000UTC 21.0N 108.5E 130NM 70%
MOVE W 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNING NR 002
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121800Z --- NEAR 20.6N 112.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.6N 112.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 20.5N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131800Z --- 20.6N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 20.9N 113.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 21.2N 112.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 21.4N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
122100Z POSITION NEAR 20.6N 112.6E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
121800Z IS 8 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 130300Z, 130900Z, 131500Z
AND 132100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

Original Message :

WTPN33 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120521ZAUG2018//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY) WARNING NR 001
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 20.8N 112.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 120 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 112.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.5N 112.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 20.7N 113.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 21.1N 113.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 21.4N 112.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 21.5N 110.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 21.3N 106.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 21.2N 103.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7N 112.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 20W (TWENTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 139 NM
SOUTHWEST OF HONG KONG, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 121200Z IS 5 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z,
130900Z AND 131500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI)
WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO
TYPHOON 19W (LEEPI) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A

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