Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for JOHN-18
in Mexico

Global Telecommunication Service

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2018-08-10 16:31

WTPN33 PHNC 101600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 020

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   101200Z --- NEAR 26.5N 120.7W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 14 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 120.7W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 27.5N 122.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 28.2N 123.7W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 28.5N 124.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    ---

REMARKS:

101600Z POSITION NEAR 26.8N 121.3W.

TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 417 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 102200Z, 110400Z, 111000Z AND 111600Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-08-10 15:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 101433

TCDEP2



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  20

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

800 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018



JOHN'S CONVECTION VANISHED AROUND 0430 UTC, AND THE CYCLONE NOW

CONSISTS OF A TIGHT SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS MOVING OVER A 22 DEGREE

CELSIUS OCEAN. GIVEN THE LACK OF CONVECTION, THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN

CLASSIFIED AS A REMNANT LOW WITH 30-KT WINDS IN THIS LAST ADVISORY.

THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AT 9 KT, AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION WILL LIKELY CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.



SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF JOHN CONTINUE TO AFFECT

PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN

CALIFORNIA, BUT WILL SOON BEGIN TO SUBSIDE. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT

PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.



THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON JOHN.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  10/1500Z 26.8N 121.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 12H  11/0000Z 27.5N 122.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 24H  11/1200Z 28.2N 123.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 36H  12/0000Z 28.5N 124.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED



..

FORECASTER AVILA



2018-08-10 15:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 101432 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  20

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

800 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018



...JOHN WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...

..................THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.8N 121.1W

ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST. THE

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17

KM/H), AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION

OCCURS IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB (29.62 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS

OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE

SWELLS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE, BUT COULD STILL CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT

PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW



2018-08-10 15:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 101432

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Post-Tropical Cyclone John Advisory Number  20

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

800 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018



...JOHN WEAKENS TO A REMNANT LOW...

...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...26.8N 121.1W

ABOUT 475 MI...760 KM SSW OF SAN DIEGO CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone John

was located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 121.1 West. The

post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17

km/h), and this motion is expected to continue until dissipation

occurs in a couple of days.



Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.

Additional weakening is anticipated.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by John continue to affect portions

of the Baja California peninsula and southern California. These

swells should begin to gradually subside, but could still cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult

products from your local weather office.



NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane

Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low

please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather

Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and

on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml.





$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-08-10 15:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 101432

TCMEP2



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

1500 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 121.1W AT 10/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.

12 FT SEAS..150NE  60SE  45SW  90NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 121.1W AT 10/1500Z

AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 120.7W



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.5N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 28.2N 123.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.5N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.8N 121.1W



THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE

CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW

PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.





..

FORECASTER AVILA



2018-08-10 10:31

WTPN33 PHNC 101000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 019

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   100600Z --- NEAR 25.6N 119.5W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 05 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 25.6N 119.5W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 26.7N 121.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 27.4N 122.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 28.0N 123.9W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 28.6N 124.4W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 30.5N 124.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    ---

REMARKS:

101000Z POSITION NEAR 26.0N 120.1W.

TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 444 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 101600Z, 102200Z, 110400Z AND 111000Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-08-10 09:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 100854

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  19

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

200 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018



CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING

THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS AS THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY

COOLER WATER.  RECENT SCATTEROMETER DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM

SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 KT.  CONTINUED WEAKENING

IS FORECAST AS JOHN MOVES OVER EVEN COLDER WATER, AND THE SYSTEM IS

NOW FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO A DEPRESSION IN LESS THAN 24 H AND TO A

REMNANT LOW IN 24-36 H.  AFTER THAT, THE REMNANT LOW WILL GRADUALLY

SPIN DOWN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 310/9.  THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE WITH

A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS,

FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH BEFORE THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE CONSENSUS MODELS THROUGH 48 H

AND IS A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THEM FROM 48-72 H.



SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN CONTINUE TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE COAST

OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ARE BEGINNING TO REACH PORTIONS

OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST. THESE SWELLS COULD CAUSE

LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT

PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  10/0900Z 25.9N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

 12H  10/1800Z 26.7N 121.3W   35 KT  40 MPH

 24H  11/0600Z 27.4N 122.8W   30 KT  35 MPH

 36H  11/1800Z 28.0N 123.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  12/0600Z 28.6N 124.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  13/0600Z 30.5N 124.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED



..

FORECASTER BEVEN



2018-08-10 09:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 100854 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  19

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

200 AM PDT FRI AUG 10 2018



...JOHN WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...25.9N 119.9W

ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.9 WEST. JOHN IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION

IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL

DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE

THIS WEEKEND.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH (75 KM/H) WITH

HIGHER GUSTS.  ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND JOHN WILL

LIKELY BECOME A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY AND BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS

WEEKEND.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB (29.56 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COASTS

OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SWELLS

ARE BEGINNING TO REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARE



2018-08-10 09:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 100854

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm John Advisory Number  19

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

200 AM PDT Fri Aug 10 2018



...JOHN WEAKENING AND EXPECTED TO BECOME A DEPRESSION LATER TODAY...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...25.9N 119.9W

ABOUT 660 MI...1065 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was

located near latitude 25.9 North, longitude 119.9 West. John is

moving toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this motion

is expected to continue over the next couple of days with a gradual

decrease in forward speed. A turn to the north is expected late

this weekend.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with

higher gusts.  Additional weakening is forecast, and John will

likely become a depression later today and become a remnant low this

weekend.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by John are affecting portions of the coasts

of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. The swells

are beginning to reach the coast of southern California and are

expected to continue through Saturday. These swells could

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-08-10 09:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 100854

TCMEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  19

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

0900 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 119.9W AT 10/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT   9 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.

34 KT.......100NE  60SE  50SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE  90SE  60SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 119.9W AT 10/0900Z

AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 119.5W



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.7N 121.3W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 60NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.4N 122.8W

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 28.0N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.6N 124.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.



FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 30.5N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 119.9W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z



..

FORECASTER BEVEN



2018-08-10 04:31

WTPN33 PHNC 100400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 018

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   100000Z --- NEAR 25.2N 119.1W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 12 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 25.2N 119.1W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   101200Z --- 26.3N 121.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 27.2N 122.7W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 27.7N 124.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 28.4N 124.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 29.9N 125.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    ---

REMARKS:

100400Z POSITION NEAR 25.6N 119.7W.

TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 462 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHWEST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z

IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101000Z, 101600Z, 102200Z AND 110400Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-08-10 03:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 100240 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  18

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

800 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2018



JOHN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS THE STORM MOVES OVER 22 DEGREES C

WATERS WELL WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. ALTHOUGH CLOUD

TOPS HAVE BECOME PROGRESSIVELY WARMER OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS,

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE STORM STILL HAS A WELL-DEFINED

STRUCTURE, WITH TIGHT BANDING AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTER AND AN

EYE-LIKE FEATURE. BASED OFF THE DECREASE IN CONVECTION, THE INITIAL

INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 50 KT. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH AN

AVERAGE OF DVORAK CI ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. GIVEN THE GOOD

STRUCTURE OF THE STORM THIS EVENING, JOHN WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN

TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY THROUGH MOST OF FRIDAY. AFTER THAT TIME,

PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS AND STABLE AIR SHOULD CAUSE CONVECTION

TO DISSIPATE SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH FOR JOHN TO BE CONSIDERED A REMNANT

LOW. ONCE IT BECOMES A REMNANT LOW, THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY SPIN

DOWN UNTIL IT DISSIPATES EARLY NEXT WEEK.



AFTER A LEFTWARD JOG IN THE TRACK EARLIER TODAY, THE TROPICAL STORM

HAS RESUMED A MOTION OF 300/12 KT. THIS TRACK IS EXPECTED TO

CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL DECREASE IN

FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER, THE LEFT-BIASED GFS, WHICH HAD BEEN

CALLING FOR AN INTERACTION BETWEEN THE REMNANTS OF JOHN AND TROPICAL

STORM KRISTY TO THE SOUTHWEST, HAS NOW BACKED OFF THAT SOLUTION IN

THE 18Z RUN. THIS HAS RESULTED IN A RIGHTWARD SHIFT IN MANY OF THE

CONSENSUS MODELS. WITH THIS SHIFT IN GUIDANCE, THE FORECAST TRACK

HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT, VERY CLOSE TO THE



2018-08-10 03:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 100240

TCDEP2



Tropical Storm John Discussion Number  18

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

800 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018



John continues to slowly weaken as the storm moves over 22 degrees C

waters well west of the Baja California Peninsula. Although cloud

tops have become progressively warmer over the past 12 hours,

satellite imagery indicates that the storm still has a well-defined

structure, with tight banding around the system center and an

eye-like feature. Based off the decrease in convection, the initial

intensity has been lowered to 50 kt. This is in agreement with an

average of Dvorak CI estimates from TAFB and SAB. Given the good

structure of the storm this evening, John will likely maintain

tropical storm intensity through most of Friday. After that time,

progressively cooler SSTs and stable air should cause convection

to dissipate sufficiently enough for John to be considered a remnant

low. Once it becomes a remnant low, the cyclone will gradually spin

down until it dissipates early next week.



After a leftward jog in the track earlier today, the tropical storm

has resumed a motion of 300/12 kt. This track is expected to

continue for the next couple of days with a gradual decrease in

forward speed. Thereafter, the left-biased GFS, which had been

calling for an interaction between the remnants of John and Tropical

Storm Kristy to the southwest, has now backed off that solution in

the 18Z run. This has resulted in a rightward shift in many of the

consensus models. With this shift in guidance, the forecast track

has also been adjusted slightly to the right, very close to the

latest TVCN solution, which has the remnant low of John drifting

northwest then north later this weekend into early next week.



Swells associated with John continue to affect portions of

the coast of the Baja California peninsula and are beginning to

reach portions of the southern California coast. These swells could

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  10/0300Z 25.5N 119.6W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  10/1200Z 26.3N 121.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  11/0000Z 27.2N 122.7W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  11/1200Z 27.7N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 48H  12/0000Z 28.4N 124.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  13/0000Z 29.9N 125.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  14/0000Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto



2018-08-10 03:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 100239 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  18

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

800 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2018



...JOHN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...25.5N 119.6W

ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 119.6 WEST. JOHN IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H), AND THIS MOTION

IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH A GRADUAL

DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. A TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED LATE

THIS WEEKEND.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H) WITH

HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND JOHN WILL LIKELY

BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS WEEKEND.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES (185 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB (29.44 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COASTS

OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SWELLS

ARE BEGINNING TO REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND ARE

EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. THESE SWELLS COULD



2018-08-10 03:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 100239

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm John Advisory Number  18

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

800 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018



...JOHN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER COOLER WATERS...





SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...25.5N 119.6W

ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was

located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 119.6 West. John is

moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this motion

is expected to continue over the next couple of days with a gradual

decrease in forward speed. A turn to the north is expected late

this weekend.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with

higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and John will likely

become a remnant low this weekend.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by John are affecting portions of the coasts

of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. The swells

are beginning to reach the coast of southern California and are

expected to continue through Saturday. These swells could

cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please

consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Cangialosi/Latto



2018-08-10 03:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 100238

TCMEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

0300 UTC FRI AUG 10 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 119.6W AT 10/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT  12 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.

50 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT.......100NE  60SE  50SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 100SE  90SW 150NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.5N 119.6W AT 10/0300Z

AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.2N 119.1W



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.3N 121.0W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 70NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.2N 122.7W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.7N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.4N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 29.9N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.5N 119.6W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z



..

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/LATTO



2018-08-09 22:31

WTPN33 PHNC 092200

WARNING    ATCG MIL 12E NEP 180809211422

2018080918 12E JOHN       017  03 295 13 SATL 020

T000 245N 1180W 055 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD

T012 255N 1202W 045 R034 080 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD

T024 264N 1220W 035 R034 060 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD

T036 271N 1234W 035 R034 050 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 050 NW QD

T048 277N 1245W 030

T072 285N 1257W 025

T096 290N 1260W 020

AMP

    048HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    072HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    096HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 017

1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 017

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   091800Z --- NEAR 24.5N 118.0W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 13 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 24.5N 118.0W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   100600Z --- 25.5N 120.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 26.4N 122.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 27.1N 123.4W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 27.7N 124.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   121800Z --- 28.5N 125.7W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 01 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 29.0N 126.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    ---

REMARKS:

092200Z POSITION NEAR 24.8N 118.7W.

TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 494 NM SOUTH OF

SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE

PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091800Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 100400Z, 101000Z, 101600Z AND 102200Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

1218080306 100N 970W  15

1218080312 106N 982W  25

1218080318 110N 990W  25

1218080400 114N 998W  25

1218080406 119N1006W  25

1218080412 128N1023W  25

1218080418 128N1032W  25

1218080500 129N1040W  25

1218080506 132N1046W  25

1218080512 137N1050W  30

1218080518 142N1055W  30

1218080600 146N1062W  35

1218080606 149N1070W  45

1218080612 153N1075W  55

1218080612 153N1075W  55

1218080618 159N1079W  65

1218080618 159N1079W  65

1218080618 159N1079W  65

1218080700 165N1084W  70

1218080700 165N1084W  70

1218080700 165N1084W  70

1218080706 170N1089W  80

1218080706 170N1089W  80

1218080706 170N1089W  80

1218080712 177N1095W  90

1218080712 177N1095W  90

1218080712 177N1095W  90

1218080718 183N1101W  95

1218080718 183N1101W  95

1218080718 183N1101W  95

1218080800 189N1108W  90

1218080800 189N1108W  90

1218080800 189N1108W  90

1218080806 196N1114W  85

1218080806 196N1114W  85

1218080806 196N1114W  85

1218080812 204N1121W  80

1218080812 204N1121W  80

1218080812 204N1121W  80

1218080818 215N1130W  75

1218080818 215N1130W  75

1218080818 215N1130W  75

1218080900 225N1141W  70

1218080900 225N1141W  70

1218080900 225N1141W  70

1218080906 233N1153W  65

1218080906 233N1153W  65

1218080906 233N1153W  65

1218080912 240N1167W  60

1218080912 240N1167W  60

1218080918 245N1180W  55

1218080918 245N1180W  55

NNNN



2018-08-09 21:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 092036 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

200 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2018



JOHN HAS RESUMED ITS GRADUAL WEAKENING.  CLOUD TOPS NEAR THE CENTER

OF THE TROPICAL STORM HAVE WARMED, AND SEVERAL RECENT MICROWAVE

OVERPASSES INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS STILL PRIMARILY LIMITED

TO THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES. THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN

LOWERED TO 55 KT BASED ON A THE LATEST DVORAK CI ESTIMATES FROM TAFB

AND SAB, AND IT IS POSSIBLE THIS IS GENEROUS. NO CHANGE HAS BEEN

MADE TO THE INTENSITY FORECAST, AND CONTINUED STEADY WEAKENING

SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MOST RECENT DYNAMICAL

GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT JOHN IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW

AROUND 36 H, SO THE FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY SHOWS THE SYSTEM

MAINTAINING TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS THROUGH THAT TIME. ONCE IT

BECOMES A REMNANT LOW, THE CYCLONE WILL GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN UNTIL

DISSIPATING EARLY NEXT WEEK.



THE TROPICAL STORM HAS MADE A LEFT-OF-TRACK JOG OVER THE PAST FEW

HOURS, AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW 290/13 KT.  DUE TO

THIS SHIFT, THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED WEST AND SOUTH

THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THAT SAID, THERE HAS BEEN NO

OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST REASONING OR TRACK

GUIDANCE. THE CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD

AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR THE

NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTER BECOMING POST-TROPICAL, THE REMNANT

CIRCULATION OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO BEGIN DRIFTING SLOWLY WITHIN AN

AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW. THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS VERY

CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST



2018-08-09 21:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 092036

TCDEP2



Tropical Storm John Discussion Number  17

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

200 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018



John has resumed its gradual weakening.  Cloud tops near the center

of the tropical storm have warmed, and several recent microwave

overpasses indicate that deep convection is still primarily limited

to the northern and western semicircles. The intensity has been

lowered to 55 kt based on a the latest Dvorak CI estimates from TAFB

and SAB, and it is possible this is generous. No change has been

made to the intensity forecast, and continued steady weakening

should continue for the next day or two. The most recent dynamical

guidance indicates that John is likely to become a remnant low

around 36 h, so the forecast conservatively shows the system

maintaining tropical cyclone status through that time. Once it

becomes a remnant low, the cyclone will gradually spin down until

dissipating early next week.



The tropical storm has made a left-of-track jog over the past few

hours, and the initial motion estimate is now 290/13 kt.  Due to

this shift, the track forecast has been adjusted west and south

through the entire forecast period. That said, there has been no

other significant change to the forecast reasoning or track

guidance. The cyclone should continue moving west-northwestward

around a mid-level ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. for the

next day or two.  After becoming post-tropical, the remnant

circulation of John is forecast to begin drifting slowly within an

area of weak low-level steering flow. The new NHC forecast is very

close to the multi-model consensus TVCN throughout the forecast

period.



Large swells associated with John are already affecting portions of

the coast of the Baja California peninsula and are forecast to

spread northward and reach portions of the southern California coast

by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf

and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local

weather office.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/2100Z 24.8N 118.5W   55 KT  65 MPH

 12H  10/0600Z 25.5N 120.2W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  10/1800Z 26.4N 122.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

 36H  11/0600Z 27.1N 123.4W   35 KT  40 MPH

 48H  11/1800Z 27.7N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  12/1800Z 28.5N 125.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  13/1800Z 29.0N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  14/1800Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-08-09 21:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 092035 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

200 PM PDT THU AUG 09 2018



...JOHN GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT STILL PRODUCING HIGH SURF ALONG

U.S. AND MEXICO PACIFIC COASTS...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.8N 118.5W

ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH, LONGITUDE 118.5 WEST. JOHN IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). THIS

GENERAL MOTION WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH

THE WEEKEND.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 65 MPH (100 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND JOHN WILL

LIKELY BECOME A REMNANT LOW THIS WEEKEND.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COASTS

OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SWELLS

ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE

TODAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND



2018-08-09 21:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 092035

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm John Advisory Number  17

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

200 PM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018



...JOHN GRADUALLY WEAKENING BUT STILL PRODUCING HIGH SURF ALONG

U.S. AND MEXICO PACIFIC COASTS...





SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.8N 118.5W

ABOUT 560 MI...900 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was

located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 118.5 West. John is

moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). This

general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected through

the weekend.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)

with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast, and John will

likely become a remnant low this weekend.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by John are affecting portions of the coasts

of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. The swells

are forecast to reach the coast of southern California by late

today.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and

rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-08-09 21:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 092035

TCMEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

2100 UTC THU AUG 09 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 118.5W AT 09/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.

50 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

34 KT.......120NE  70SE  50SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 150SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 118.5W AT 09/2100Z

AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 118.0W



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.5N 120.2W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.4N 122.0W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 60NE  40SE   0SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.1N 123.4W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.7N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 28.5N 125.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 29.0N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 118.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z



..

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-08-09 16:31

WTPN33 PHNC 091600

WARNING    ATCG MIL 12E NEP 180809150100

2018080912 12E JOHN       016  03 305 16 SATL 020

T000 242N 1167W 060 R050 050 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 110 NW QD

T012 255N 1191W 050 R050 030 NE QD 000 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 080 NW QD

T024 266N 1211W 040 R034 070 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 060 NW QD

T036 274N 1228W 035 R034 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 000 SW QD 040 NW QD

T048 279N 1240W 030

T072 286N 1254W 025

T096 295N 1255W 020

AMP

    048HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    072HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    096HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 016

1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 016

   DOWNGRADED FROM HURRICANE 12E

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   091200Z --- NEAR 24.2N 116.7W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 16 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 24.2N 116.7W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   100000Z --- 25.5N 119.1W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   101200Z --- 26.6N 121.1W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 27.4N 122.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 27.9N 124.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   121200Z --- 28.6N 125.4W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 29.5N 125.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    ---

REMARKS:

091600Z POSITION NEAR 24.6N 117.5W.

TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTH OF

SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 092200Z, 100400Z, 101000Z AND 101600Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

1218080306 100N 970W  15

1218080312 106N 982W  25

1218080318 110N 990W  25

1218080400 114N 998W  25

1218080406 119N1006W  25

1218080412 128N1023W  25

1218080418 128N1032W  25

1218080500 129N1040W  25

1218080506 132N1046W  25

1218080512 137N1050W  30

1218080518 142N1055W  30

1218080600 146N1062W  35

1218080606 149N1070W  45

1218080612 153N1075W  55

1218080612 153N1075W  55

1218080618 159N1079W  65

1218080618 159N1079W  65

1218080618 159N1079W  65

1218080700 165N1084W  70

1218080700 165N1084W  70

1218080700 165N1084W  70

1218080706 170N1089W  80

1218080706 170N1089W  80

1218080706 170N1089W  80

1218080712 177N1095W  90

1218080712 177N1095W  90

1218080712 177N1095W  90

1218080718 183N1101W  95

1218080718 183N1101W  95

1218080718 183N1101W  95

1218080800 189N1108W  90

1218080800 189N1108W  90

1218080800 189N1108W  90

1218080806 196N1114W  85

1218080806 196N1114W  85

1218080806 196N1114W  85

1218080812 204N1121W  80

1218080812 204N1121W  80

1218080812 204N1121W  80

1218080818 215N1130W  75

1218080818 215N1130W  75

1218080818 215N1130W  75

1218080900 225N1141W  70

1218080900 225N1141W  70

1218080900 225N1141W  70

1218080906 233N1153W  65

1218080906 233N1153W  65

1218080906 233N1153W  65

1218080912 242N1167W  60

1218080912 242N1167W  60

NNNN



2018-08-09 15:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 091432 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

800 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2018



JOHN'S STRUCTURE HASN'T CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A

COMBINATION OF COOL SSTS AND STABLE AIR APPEAR TO BE CAUSING

CONVECTION TO ERODE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CYCLONE'S

CIRCULATION.  A BLEND OF OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK

CLASSIFICATIONS WAS USED TO DETERMINE THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 60

KT. THE TROPICAL STORM WILL BE MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER SSTS

FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND FURTHER WEAKENING IS INEVITABLE.

THE INTENSITY MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST WEAKENING

RATE, AND JOHN IS STILL FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN THE

NEXT 48 H.



THE INITIAL MOTION CONTINUES NEAR 305/14 KT.  THERE IS NO CHANGE TO

THE REASONING BEHIND THE TRACK FORECAST, AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS

MERELY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  ALL OF THE GUIDANCE

REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD WILL GRADUALLY

TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND A MID-LEVEL RIDGE

CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY THE

END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE REMNANT LOW IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN

TO A DRIFT WITHIN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW.



LARGE SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH JOHN ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF

THE COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND ARE FORECAST TO

SPREAD NORTHWARD AND REACH PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST

BY TONIGHT. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE- THREATENING SURF

AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL

WEATHER OFFICE.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



2018-08-09 15:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 091432

TCDEP2



Tropical Storm John Discussion Number  16

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018



John's structure hasn't changed much over the past few hours. A

combination of cool SSTs and stable air appear to be causing

convection to erode in the southern portion of the cyclone's

circulation.  A blend of objective and subjective Dvorak

classifications was used to determine the initial intensity of 60

kt. The tropical storm will be moving over progressively cooler SSTs

for the next couple of days, and further weakening is inevitable.

The intensity models are in good agreement on the forecast weakening

rate, and John is still forecast to become a remnant low within the

next 48 h.



The initial motion continues near 305/14 kt.  There is no change to

the reasoning behind the track forecast, and the new NHC forecast is

merely an update of the previous advisory.  All of the guidance

remains in good agreement that the cyclone should will gradually

turn west-northwestward as it moves around a mid-level ridge

centered over the southwestern U.S. for the next few days. By the

end of the forecast period, the remnant low is likely to slow down

to a drift within an area of weak low-level steering flow.



Large swells associated with John are already affecting portions of

the coast of the Baja California peninsula and are forecast to

spread northward and reach portions of the southern California coast

by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf

and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local

weather office.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/1500Z 24.5N 117.3W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  10/0000Z 25.5N 119.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  10/1200Z 26.6N 121.1W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  11/0000Z 27.4N 122.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

 48H  11/1200Z 27.9N 124.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  12/1200Z 28.6N 125.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  13/1200Z 29.5N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  14/1200Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-08-09 15:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 091432 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

800 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2018



...JOHN EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

COAST LATER TODAY...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.5N 117.3W

ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 117.3 WEST.  JOHN IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H).  A TURN TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER

THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  STEADY WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND JOHN IS EXPECTED TO

BECOME A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COASTS

OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THE SWELLS

ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA BY LATE

TODAY.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND



2018-08-09 15:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 091432

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm John Advisory Number  16

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

800 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018



...JOHN EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HIGH SURF ALONG SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

COAST LATER TODAY...





SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...24.5N 117.3W

ABOUT 480 MI...775 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was

located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 117.3 West.  John is

moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A turn toward

the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over

the next few days.



Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Steady weakening is forecast, and John is expected to

become a remnant low on Saturday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by John are affecting portions of the coasts

of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California peninsula. The swells

are forecast to reach the coast of southern California by late

today.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and

rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local

weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Zelinsky



2018-08-09 15:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 091431

TCMEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

1500 UTC THU AUG 09 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 117.3W AT 09/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  14 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 50NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.

34 KT.......120NE  70SE  50SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 210NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 117.3W AT 09/1500Z

AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 116.7W



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.5N 119.1W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.6N 121.1W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 70NE  50SE   0SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.4N 122.8W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 27.9N 124.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 28.6N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 29.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 117.3W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z



..

FORECASTER ZELINSKY



2018-08-09 10:31

WTPN33 PHNC 091000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 015//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 015

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   090600Z --- NEAR 23.3N 115.3W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 23.3N 115.3W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   091800Z --- 24.8N 117.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   100600Z --- 25.9N 119.9W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 26.9N 121.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 27.5N 123.4W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 28.1N 125.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 29.0N 126.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND

    ---

REMARKS:

091000Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 116.1W.

HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 572 NM SOUTH OF SAN

DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX

HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 091600Z, 092200Z, 100400Z AND 101000Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-08-09 09:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 090844

TCDEP2



Tropical Storm John Discussion Number  15

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

200 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018



The satellite presentation of John continues to degrade, with the

central dense overcast decreasing in both size and intensity.

Scatterometer data also indicate that the low-level center is

southwest of the mid-level center, hinting that the circulation

could be decoupling.  The initial wind speed is set to 60 kt, near

the latest TAFB and CIMSS-ADT estimates.  John is rapidly moving

over cool waters into a dry stable airmass, which should cause

further weakening. The new NHC wind speed prediction follows the

trend of the HFIP corrected-consensus guidance (a top performer this

year), leading to a small reduction in the forecast.  Remnant low

status is forecast after 36 hours when the cyclone moves over

sub-22C waters with little environmental instability.



John has turned leftward, now estimated at 305/14 kt.  The tropical

cyclone should continue to gradually turn toward the west-northwest

over the next few days as it moves around a ridge situated over the

southwestern United States. John's remnants are likely to drift

northward or northwestward at long range in a region of weak

steering currents. The track guidance is in very good agreement and

the official forecast is close to the previous one.



John is producing large swells that are already affecting portions

of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula. These swells

are predicted to spread northward along the west coast of the

peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern

California by tonight.  These swells are likely to cause life-

threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult

products from your local weather office.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/0900Z 23.7N 115.9W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  09/1800Z 24.8N 117.8W   50 KT  60 MPH

 24H  10/0600Z 25.9N 119.9W   40 KT  45 MPH

 36H  10/1800Z 26.9N 121.8W   35 KT  40 MPH

 48H  11/0600Z 27.5N 123.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 72H  12/0600Z 28.1N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  13/0600Z 29.0N 126.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  14/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster Blake



2018-08-09 09:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 090844 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

200 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2018



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JOHN CONTINUES TO DEGRADE, WITH THE

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST DECREASING IN BOTH SIZE AND INTENSITY.

SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS

SOUTHWEST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER, HINTING THAT THE CIRCULATION

COULD BE DECOUPLING.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO 60 KT, NEAR

THE LATEST TAFB AND CIMSS-ADT ESTIMATES.  JOHN IS RAPIDLY MOVING

OVER COOL WATERS INTO A DRY STABLE AIRMASS, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE

FURTHER WEAKENING. THE NEW NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION FOLLOWS THE

TREND OF THE HFIP CORRECTED-CONSENSUS GUIDANCE (A TOP PERFORMER THIS

YEAR), LEADING TO A SMALL REDUCTION IN THE FORECAST.  REMNANT LOW

STATUS IS FORECAST AFTER 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER

SUB-22C WATERS WITH LITTLE ENVIRONMENTAL INSTABILITY.



JOHN HAS TURNED LEFTWARD, NOW ESTIMATED AT 305/14 KT.  THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES AROUND A RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE

SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. JOHN'S REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO DRIFT

NORTHWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD AT LONG RANGE IN A REGION OF WEAK

STEERING CURRENTS. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT AND

THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE.



JOHN IS PRODUCING LARGE SWELLS THAT ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS

OF THE COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS

ARE PREDICTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE

PENINSULA TODAY AND REACH PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN

CALIFORNIA BY TONIGHT.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-



2018-08-09 09:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 090844 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

200 AM PDT THU AUG 09 2018



...JOHN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT THE DANGEROUS SURF THREAT

CONTINUES...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.7N 115.9W

ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 115.9 WEST.  JOHN IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND A TURN TOWARD

THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER

THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND JOHN IS

EXPECTED TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW ON SATURDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES (220 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE

COASTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST

OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.



2018-08-09 09:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 090844

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm John Advisory Number  15

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

200 AM PDT Thu Aug 09 2018



...JOHN WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT THE DANGEROUS SURF THREAT

CONTINUES...





SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.7N 115.9W

ABOUT 385 MI...620 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was

located near latitude 23.7 North, longitude 115.9 West.  John is

moving toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward

the west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over

the next few days.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Some weakening is forecast, and John is

expected to degenerate into a remnant low on Saturday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by John are affecting portions of the

coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja

California peninsula, and will spread northward along the west coast

of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.

The swells are forecast to reach the coast of southern California

by late today.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening

surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your

local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT.



$$

Forecaster Blake



2018-08-09 09:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 090842

TCMEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

0900 UTC THU AUG 09 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 115.9W AT 09/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  14 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 50NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.

34 KT.......120NE  70SE  50SW 110NW.

12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 115.9W AT 09/0900Z

AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.3N 115.3W



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.8N 117.8W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT...100NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.9N 119.9W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.9N 121.8W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 27.5N 123.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 28.1N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 29.0N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.7N 115.9W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z



..

FORECASTER BLAKE



2018-08-09 03:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 090232 RRA

TCDEP2



HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

900 PM MDT WED AUG 08 2018



AFTER MAKING A BIT OF A COMEBACK EARLIER TODAY, THE FINAL WEAKENING

PHASE OF JOHN APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN.  THE EYE IS NO LONGER APPARENT

ON VISIBLE OR INFRARED IMAGERY AND THE INNER CORE CONVECTION IS

BECOMING MORE FRAGMENTED.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT

BASED ON A BLEND OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES.

JOHN IS BEGINNING TO CROSS A SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT OF SST INTO COOLER

WATERS AND A DRIER, MORE STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD CAUSE STEADY

WEAKENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MODEL

CONSENSUS.  JOHN IS LIKELY TO DEGENERATE INTO A POST-TROPICAL

REMNANT LOW BY SATURDAY, IF NOT SOONER.



THE INITIAL MOTION, 325/14 KT, IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE.  THE

TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHTFORWARD.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE

SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY

OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  A GRADUAL TURN

TOWARD THE LEFT SHOULD TAKE PLACE THEREAFTER AS THE INCREASINGLY

SHALLOW SYSTEM COMES MORE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL

FLOW.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, JOHN'S REMNANTS ARE

LIKELY TO SLOWLY MEANDER IN A REGION OF WEAK STEERING CURRENTS.

THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST

IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.



ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF

THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, A SURGE OF MOISTURE AROUND JOHN'S

OUTER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.



2018-08-09 03:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 090232

TCDEP2



Hurricane John Discussion Number  14

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

900 PM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018



After making a bit of a comeback earlier today, the final weakening

phase of John appears to have begun.  The eye is no longer apparent

on visible or infrared imagery and the inner core convection is

becoming more fragmented.  The current intensity is set at 70 kt

based on a blend of subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.

John is beginning to cross a significant gradient of SST into cooler

waters and a drier, more stable air mass should cause steady

weakening.  The official intensity forecast is close to the model

consensus.  John is likely to degenerate into a post-tropical

remnant low by Saturday, if not sooner.



The initial motion, 325/14 kt, is about the same as before.  The

track forecast is fairly straightforward.  The tropical cyclone

should continue to move northwestward on the southwestern periphery

of a mid-level ridge for the next day or two.  A gradual turn

toward the left should take place thereafter as the increasingly

shallow system comes more under the influence of the low-level

flow.  Near the end of the forecast period, John's remnants are

likely to slowly meander in a region of weak steering currents.

The track guidance is in good agreement and the official forecast

is slightly north of the previous one.



Although the center of John is forecast to remain well offshore of

the Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's

outer circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall

to portions of Baja California Sur through Thursday morning.



John is also producing large swells that are already affecting

portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.

These swells are predicted to spread northward along the west coast

of the peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern

California by late Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult

products from your local weather office.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  09/0300Z 23.1N 114.4W   70 KT  80 MPH

 12H  09/1200Z 24.2N 116.1W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  10/0000Z 25.6N 118.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  10/1200Z 26.8N 120.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 48H  11/0000Z 27.5N 122.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

 72H  12/0000Z 28.0N 124.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  13/0000Z 28.5N 125.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  14/0000Z 29.5N 125.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-08-09 03:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 090231 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

900 PM MDT WED AUG 08 2018



...JOHN WEAKENING...





SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.1N 114.4W

ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 23.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST.  JOHN IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH (26 KM/H), AND A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER

THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF JOHN WILL

PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR THROUGH

THURSDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  CONTINUED WEAKENING IS FORECAST, AND JOHN IS

EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY, AND TO DEGENERATE

INTO A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES

(185 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 983 MB (29.03 INCHES).



2018-08-09 03:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 090231

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Hurricane John Advisory Number  14

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

900 PM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018



...JOHN WEAKENING...





SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...23.1N 114.4W

ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula

should monitor the progress of John due to locally heavy rainfall.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located

near latitude 23.1 North, longitude 114.4 West.  John is moving

toward the northwest near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a turn toward the

west-northwest with a decrease in forward speed is expected over

the next few days.  On the forecast track, the center of John will

pass well to the southwest and west of Baja California Sur through

Thursday.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Continued weakening is forecast, and John is

expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday, and to degenerate

into a remnant low Friday night or Saturday.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles

(185 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb (29.03 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

1 to 2 inches over far southern Baja California Sur, with isolated

maximum amounts of 3 inches through Thursday.



SURF:  Swells generated by John are affecting portions of the

coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja

California peninsula and will spread northward along the west coast

of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.

The swells are forecast to reach the coast of southern California

by late Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening

surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your

local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-08-09 03:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 090230 RRA

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

0300 UTC THU AUG 09 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 114.4W AT 09/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  14 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 114.4W AT 09/0300Z

AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 113.8W



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.2N 116.1W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.6N 118.3W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.8N 120.4W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.5N 122.2W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.0N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM



2018-08-09 03:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 090230

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

0300 UTC THU AUG 09 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 114.4W AT 09/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  14 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  983 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 210SW 210NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.1N 114.4W AT 09/0300Z

AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 113.8W



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.2N 116.1W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.6N 118.3W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.8N 120.4W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 27.5N 122.2W

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.0N 124.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 28.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 29.5N 125.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.1N 114.4W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER PASCH



2018-08-09 03:31

WTPN33 PHNC 090400

WARNING    ATCG MIL 12E NEP 180809023742

2018080900 12E JOHN       014  03 325 15 SATL 020

T000 227N 1138W 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD

T012 242N 1161W 065 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD

T024 256N 1183W 050 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD

T036 268N 1204W 040 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD

T048 275N 1222W 035 R034 070 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 060 NW QD

T072 280N 1247W 030

T096 285N 1255W 025

T120 295N 1255W 015

AMP

    072HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    096HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    120HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

SUBJ:  HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 014

1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 014

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   090000Z --- NEAR 22.7N 113.8W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 15 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 22.7N 113.8W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   091200Z --- 24.2N 116.1W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   100000Z --- 25.6N 118.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   101200Z --- 26.8N 120.4W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 27.5N 122.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 28.0N 124.7W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 28.5N 125.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   140000Z --- 29.5N 125.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    ---

REMARKS:

090400Z POSITION NEAR 23.2N 114.6W.

HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 625 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 091000Z, 091600Z, 092200Z AND 100400Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

1218080306 100N 970W  15

1218080312 106N 982W  25

1218080318 110N 990W  25

1218080400 114N 998W  25

1218080406 119N1006W  25

1218080412 128N1023W  25

1218080418 128N1032W  25

1218080500 129N1040W  25

1218080506 132N1046W  25

1218080512 137N1050W  30

1218080518 143N1055W  30

1218080600 146N1062W  35

1218080606 149N1070W  45

1218080612 153N1076W  55

1218080612 153N1076W  55

1218080618 159N1079W  60

1218080618 159N1079W  60

1218080700 164N1084W  70

1218080700 164N1084W  70

1218080700 164N1084W  70

1218080706 170N1089W  75

1218080706 170N1089W  75

1218080706 170N1089W  75

1218080712 175N1095W  90

1218080712 175N1095W  90

1218080712 175N1095W  90

1218080718 183N1101W  90

1218080718 183N1101W  90

1218080718 183N1101W  90

1218080800 189N1108W  90

1218080800 189N1108W  90

1218080800 189N1108W  90

1218080806 196N1114W  85

1218080806 196N1114W  85

1218080806 196N1114W  85

1218080812 203N1119W  75

1218080812 203N1119W  75

1218080812 203N1119W  75

1218080818 215N1129W  75

1218080818 215N1129W  75

1218080818 215N1129W  75

1218080900 227N1138W  70

1218080900 227N1138W  70

1218080900 227N1138W  70

NNNN



2018-08-08 22:31

WTPN33 PHNC 082200

WARNING    ATCG MIL 12E NEP 180808210129

2018080818 12E JOHN       013  03 320 15 SATL 020

T000 215N 1129W 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD

T012 232N 1150W 065 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD

T024 246N 1172W 055 R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 090 NW QD

T036 258N 1193W 045 R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 080 NW QD

T048 267N 1214W 040 R034 080 NE QD 080 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD

T072 275N 1245W 030

T096 280N 1260W 025

T120 290N 1260W 015

AMP

    072HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    096HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    120HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

SUBJ:  HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 013

1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 013

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   081800Z --- NEAR 21.5N 112.9W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 15 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 21.5N 112.9W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   090600Z --- 23.2N 115.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   091800Z --- 24.6N 117.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   100600Z --- 25.8N 119.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 26.7N 121.4W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 27.5N 124.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   121800Z --- 28.0N 126.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 03 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   131800Z --- 29.0N 126.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    ---

REMARKS:

082200Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 113.6W.

HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 708 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 090400Z, 091000Z, 091600Z AND 092200Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

1218080306 100N 970W  15

1218080312 106N 982W  25

1218080318 110N 990W  25

1218080400 114N 998W  25

1218080406 119N1006W  25

1218080412 128N1023W  25

1218080418 128N1032W  25

1218080500 129N1040W  25

1218080506 132N1046W  25

1218080512 137N1050W  30

1218080518 143N1055W  30

1218080600 146N1062W  35

1218080606 149N1070W  45

1218080612 153N1076W  55

1218080612 153N1076W  55

1218080618 159N1079W  60

1218080618 159N1079W  60

1218080700 164N1084W  70

1218080700 164N1084W  70

1218080700 164N1084W  70

1218080706 170N1089W  75

1218080706 170N1089W  75

1218080706 170N1089W  75

1218080712 175N1095W  90

1218080712 175N1095W  90

1218080712 175N1095W  90

1218080718 183N1101W  90

1218080718 183N1101W  90

1218080718 183N1101W  90

1218080800 189N1108W  90

1218080800 189N1108W  90

1218080800 189N1108W  90

1218080806 196N1114W  85

1218080806 196N1114W  85

1218080806 196N1114W  85

1218080812 203N1119W  75

1218080812 203N1119W  75

1218080812 203N1119W  75

1218080818 215N1129W  75

1218080818 215N1129W  75

1218080818 215N1129W  75

NNNN



2018-08-08 21:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 082032 RRA

TCDEP2



HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

300 PM MDT WED AUG 08 2018



JOHN HAS SHOWN SOME IMPROVED ORGANIZATION SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY

AS THE SYSTEM HAS FORMED A 20 N MI WIDE CLOUD-FILLED EYE.  SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN IN THE 65-77 KT RANGE, SO THE INITIAL

INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  OTHER THAN

THIS TEMPORARY BREAK IN THE WEAKENING, THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE

INTENSITY FORECAST, AS THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES JOHN OVER

PROGRESSIVELY COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INTO A MORE STABLE

AIR MASS. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN THE CENTER OF THE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE, WITH JOHN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM

IN 24 H OR LESS AND TO A REMNANT LOW BETWEEN 48-72 H.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/13, A BIT FASTER THAN EARLIER.  A

COMBINATION OF AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NEAR 19N 124W AND A MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD STEER JOHN

NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 36 H OR SO.  AFTER THAT, THE CYCLONE OR

ITS REMNANTS IS FORECAST TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL

TRADE WIND FLOW.  NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, A SLOW MOTION

IS EXPECTED AS THE REMNANTS OF JOHN MOVE INTO AN AREA OF LIGHT

STEERING CURRENTS.  THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO

THE NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS

NORTH OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.



ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF

THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, A SURGE OF MOISTURE AROUND JOHN'S

OUTER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.



2018-08-08 21:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 082032

TCDEP2



Hurricane John Discussion Number  13

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

300 PM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018



John has shown some improved organization since the last advisory

as the system has formed a 20 n mi wide cloud-filled eye.  Satellite

intensity estimates remain in the 65-77 kt range, so the initial

intensity will be held at 75 kt for this advisory.  Other than

this temporary break in the weakening, there is little change to the

intensity forecast, as the forecast track takes John over

progressively colder sea surface temperatures and into a more stable

air mass. The new intensity forecast is in the center of the

intensity guidance, with John expected to weaken to a tropical storm

in 24 h or less and to a remnant low between 48-72 h.



The initial motion is 325/13, a bit faster than earlier.  A

combination of an upper-level low near 19N 124W and a mid- to

upper-level ridge over northwestern Mexico should steer John

northwestward for the next 36 h or so.  After that, the cyclone or

its remnants is forecast to turn west-northwestward in the low-level

trade wind flow.  Near the end of the forecast period, a slow motion

is expected as the remnants of John move into an area of light

steering currents.  The guidance envelope has shifted a little to

the north from the previous advisory, and the new forecast track is

north of and faster than the previous forecast.



Although the center of John is forecast to remain well offshore of

the Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's

outer circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall

to portions of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days.

Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the Baja California

Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.



John is also producing large swells that are already affecting

portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.

These swells are predicted to spread northward along the west coast

of the peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern

California by late Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult

products from your local weather office.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/2100Z 22.0N 113.5W   75 KT  85 MPH

 12H  09/0600Z 23.2N 115.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  09/1800Z 24.6N 117.2W   55 KT  65 MPH

 36H  10/0600Z 25.8N 119.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

 48H  10/1800Z 26.7N 121.4W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  11/1800Z 27.5N 124.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  12/1800Z 28.0N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  13/1800Z 29.0N 126.0W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-08-08 21:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 082032 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

300 PM MDT WED AUG 08 2018



...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE JOHN CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...





SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.0N 113.5W

ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 22.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 113.5 WEST.  JOHN IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION

IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE

CENTER OF JOHN WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

SUR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND JOHN IS

EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY, AND DEGENERATE INTO

A REMNANT LOW FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES



2018-08-08 21:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 082032

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Hurricane John Advisory Number  13

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

300 PM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018



...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE JOHN CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY

HEAVY RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...





SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...22.0N 113.5W

ABOUT 240 MI...385 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula

should monitor the progress of John due to locally heavy rainfall.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located

near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 113.5 West.  John is moving

toward the northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion

is expected to continue through Thursday.  A turn toward the

west-northwest is expected by Friday.  On the forecast track, the

center of John will pass well to the southwest of Baja California

Sur today through Thursday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next few days, and John is

expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday, and degenerate into

a remnant low Friday night or Saturday.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles

(185 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

1 to 2 inches over far southern Baja California Sur, with isolated

maximum amounts of 3 inches through Thursday.



SURF:  Swells generated by John are affecting portions of the

coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja

California peninsula and will spread northward along the west coast

of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.

The swells are forecast to reach the coast of southern California

by late Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening

surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your

local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-08-08 21:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 082031 RRA

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

2100 UTC WED AUG 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 113.5W AT 08/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  13 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB

EYE DIAMETER  20 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 113.5W AT 08/2100Z

AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 112.9W



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N 115.0W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.6N 117.2W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.8N 119.3W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.7N 121.4W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM



2018-08-08 21:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 082031

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

2100 UTC WED AUG 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 113.5W AT 08/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  13 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB

EYE DIAMETER  20 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE 180SW 210NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 113.5W AT 08/2100Z

AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 112.9W



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.2N 115.0W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.6N 117.2W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.8N 119.3W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.7N 121.4W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 27.5N 124.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 28.0N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 29.0N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.0N 113.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER BEVEN



2018-08-08 15:34

WTPZ42 KNHC 081436 RRA

TCDEP2



HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

900 AM MDT WED AUG 08 2018



THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF JOHN HAS DEGRADED OVER THE PAST 12

HOURS OR SO, WITH THE EYE NO LONGER PRESENT IN CONVENTIONAL

SATELLITE DATA.  THE CDO HAS ALSO BECOME CONSIDERABLY LESS

SYMMETRIC THAN NOTED YESTERDAY.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES

RANGE FROM 65 TO 77 KT, AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN

LOWERED TO 75 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  JOHN WILL BE MOVING OVER

COOLER WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS AND INTO A MORE STABLE

ATMOSPHERE, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE GRADUAL WEAKENING THROUGH TONIGHT.

BY THURSDAY, JOHN WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COLDER SSTS AND A MORE

RAPID RATE OF FILLING IS EXPECTED BY THAT TIME.  JOHN IS PREDICTED

TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 2 TO 3 DAYS AS IT REACHES SSTS OF AROUND

21C.



THE HURRICANE IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 320/10 KT. JOHN SHOULD

CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD WHILE IT REMAINS A VERTICALLY DEEP

CYCLONE, BUT ONCE IT WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW SYSTEM IT

IS EXPECTED TO TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE

WIND FLOW. THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT

AGREEMENT AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS NHC

TRACK FORECAST.



ALTHOUGH THE CENTER OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF

THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, A SURGE OF MOISTURE AROUND JOHN'S

OUTER CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL

TO PORTIONS OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THEREFORE, INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA

PENINSULA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.



2018-08-08 15:34

WTPZ42 KNHC 081436

TCDEP2



Hurricane John Discussion Number  12

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

900 AM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018



The satellite presentation of John has degraded over the past 12

hours or so, with the eye no longer present in conventional

satellite data.  The CDO has also become considerably less

symmetric than noted yesterday.  Satellite intensity estimates

range from 65 to 77 kt, and the initial intensity has been

lowered to 75 kt for this advisory.  John will be moving over

cooler waters within the next 6-12 hours and into a more stable

atmosphere, which should cause gradual weakening through tonight.

By Thursday, John will be moving over much colder SSTs and a more

rapid rate of filling is expected by that time.  John is predicted

to become a remnant low in 2 to 3 days as it reaches SSTs of around

21C.



The hurricane is moving northwestward or 320/10 kt. John should

continue moving northwestward while it remains a vertically deep

cyclone, but once it weakens and becomes a more shallow system it

is expected to turn west-northwestward in the low-level trade

wind flow. The dynamical model guidance remains in excellent

agreement and little change was required to the previous NHC

track forecast.



Although the center of John is forecast to remain well offshore of

the Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's

outer circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall

to portions of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days.

Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the Baja California

Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.



John is also producing large swells that are already affecting

portions of the coast of the southern Baja California peninsula.

These swells are predicted to spread northward along the west coast

of the peninsula today and reach portions of the coast of southern

California by late Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult

products from your local weather office.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/1500Z 20.7N 112.3W   75 KT  85 MPH

 12H  09/0000Z 22.0N 113.7W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  09/1200Z 23.5N 115.9W   60 KT  70 MPH

 36H  10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W   50 KT  60 MPH

 48H  10/1200Z 25.9N 120.2W   40 KT  45 MPH

 72H  11/1200Z 26.9N 123.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 96H  12/1200Z 27.0N 126.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  13/1200Z 27.5N 126.8W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-08-08 15:34

WTPZ32 KNHC 081435 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

900 AM MDT WED AUG 08 2018



...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE JOHN PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY

RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...





SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.7N 112.3W

ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 20.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 112.3 WEST. JOHN IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH (19 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL MOTION

IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY.  A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED BY FRIDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE

CENTER OF JOHN WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

SUR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 85 MPH (140 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS,

AND JOHN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON THURSDAY, AND

DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW LATE FRIDAY OR EARLY SATURDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES



2018-08-08 15:34

WTPZ32 KNHC 081435

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Hurricane John Advisory Number  12

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

900 AM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018



...OUTER BANDS OF LARGE HURRICANE JOHN PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY

RAINFALL OVER SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...





SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.7N 112.3W

ABOUT 215 MI...350 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula

should monitor the progress of John due to locally heavy rainfall.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located

near latitude 20.7 North, longitude 112.3 West. John is moving

toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion

is expected to continue through Thursday.  A turn toward the

west-northwest is expected by Friday.  On the forecast track, the

center of John will pass well to the southwest of Baja California

Sur today through Thursday.



Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Weakening is forecast during the next few days,

and John is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday, and

degenerate into a remnant low late Friday or early Saturday.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles

(185 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb (28.91 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

1 to 2 inches over far southern Baja California Sur, with isolated

maximum amounts of 3 inches through Thursday.



SURF:  Swells generated by John are affecting portions of the

coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja

California peninsula and will spread northward along the west coast

of the Baja California peninsula during the next couple of days.

The swells are forecast to reach the coast of southern California

by late Thursday.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening

surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your

local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-08-08 15:34

WTPZ22 KNHC 081434 RRA

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

1500 UTC WED AUG 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.3W AT 08/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.3W AT 08/1500Z

AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 111.9W



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 113.7W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 115.9W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.9N 120.2W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.9N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM



2018-08-08 15:34

WTPZ22 KNHC 081434

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

1500 UTC WED AUG 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.3W AT 08/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  10 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 112.3W AT 08/1500Z

AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 111.9W



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 113.7W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 115.9W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.9N 120.2W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 26.9N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 27.5N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 112.3W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-08-08 15:34

WTPN33 PHNC 081600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 012//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 012

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   081200Z --- NEAR 20.3N 111.9W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 20.3N 111.9W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   090000Z --- 22.0N 113.7W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 13 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   091200Z --- 23.5N 115.9W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   100000Z --- 24.9N 118.1W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   101200Z --- 25.9N 120.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 26.9N 123.9W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   121200Z --- 27.0N 126.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 02 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   131200Z --- 27.5N 126.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    ---

REMARKS:

081600Z POSITION NEAR 20.9N 112.5W.

HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 794 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z

IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082200Z, 090400Z, 091000Z AND 091600Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-

HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-08-08 10:31

WTPN33 PHNC 081000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 011//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 011

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   080600Z --- NEAR 19.6N 111.2W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6N 111.2W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   081800Z --- 21.1N 112.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   090600Z --- 22.8N 114.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   091800Z --- 24.2N 116.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   100600Z --- 25.3N 119.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 26.8N 122.9W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROPICAL

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 27.0N 125.6W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   130600Z --- 27.3N 127.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    ---

REMARKS:

081000Z POSITION NEAR 20.1N 111.7W.

HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 847 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT

080600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081600Z, 082200Z, 090400Z AND

091000Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 080858 RRA

TCDEP2



HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

300 AM MDT WED AUG 08 2018



AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, THE EYE OF JOHN PASSED

ABOUT 9 NMI NORTHEAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND AROUND 0030 UTC, WITH THE

ISLAND POSSIBLY BEING WITHIN OR JUST OUTSIDE THE EYEWALL. ADDITIONAL

DATA FROM AN AUTOMATED STATION ON THE ISLAND INDICATE THAT THE

HIGHEST SUSTAINED WIND REPORTED IN 15-MINUTE INTERVALS WAS 48 KT AT

0230 UTC, WITH ANOTHER 70-KT GUST REPORTED AT 0200 UTC. THE LOWEST

PRESSURE MEASURED WAS 970 MB AT 0015 UTC, WHICH IS PROBABLY A 4-5 MB

TOO LOW. SINCE THAT TIME, JOHN'S EYE HAS OCCASIONALLY BECOME

CLOUD-FILLED, BUT DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED IN THE

EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY DECREASED SLIGHTLY TO 85 KT

BASED ON A UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATE OF 87 KT AND DUE TO THE RECENT

UPTICK IN EYEWALL CONVECTION.



ALTHOUGH JOHN SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS FOR ANOTHER 12 HOURS

OR SO, THE GENERAL TREND CALLS FOR STEADY WEAKENING DUE TO THE

INGESTION OF MORE STABLE AIR TO THE NORTH, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO

DECREASE THE INSTABILITY AND INNER-CORE CONVECTION. THE OFFICIAL

INTENSITY FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST,

AND IS SIMILAR TO A BLEND OF THE FSSE AND HCCA MODELS.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OR 330/10 KT.

JOHN IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT A SLIGHTLY

FASTER FORWARD SPEED LATER THIS MORNING, AND THEN CONTINUE THAT

MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME, A TURN TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD IS FORECAST DUE TO THE WEAKENING AND SHALLOW

CYCLONE BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW. THE NEW



2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 080858

TCDEP2



Hurricane John Discussion Number  11

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

300 AM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018



As mentioned in the previous discussion, the eye of John passed

about 9 nmi northeast of Socorro Island around 0030 UTC, with the

island possibly being within or just outside the eyewall. Additional

data from an automated station on the island indicate that the

highest sustained wind reported in 15-minute intervals was 48 kt at

0230 UTC, with another 70-kt gust reported at 0200 UTC. The lowest

pressure measured was 970 mb at 0015 UTC, which is probably a 4-5 mb

too low. Since that time, John's eye has occasionally become

cloud-filled, but deep convection has recently developed in the

eyewall. The initial intensity is only decreased slightly to 85 kt

based on a UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of 87 kt and due to the recent

uptick in eyewall convection.



Although John should remain over warm waters for another 12 hours

or so, the general trend calls for steady weakening due to the

ingestion of more stable air to the north, which is expected to

decrease the instability and inner-core convection. The official

intensity forecast is lower than the previous intensity forecast,

and is similar to a blend of the FSSE and HCCA models.



The initial motion estimate is north-northwestward or 330/10 kt.

John is expected to return to a northwestward motion at a slightly

faster forward speed later this morning, and then continue that

motion for the next 72 hours. After that time, a turn toward the

west-northwestward is forecast due to the weakening and shallow

cyclone being steered by the low-level trade wind flow. The new

official forecast remains in close agreement with the previous

advisory, and lies down the middle of the guidance envelope.



Although the core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of

the Baja California Peninsula, a surge of moisture around John's

outer circulation is expected to bring some locally heavy rainfall

to portions of Baja California Sur during the next couple of days.

Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the Baja California

Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/0900Z 20.0N 111.6W   85 KT 100 MPH

 12H  08/1800Z 21.1N 112.8W   80 KT  90 MPH

 24H  09/0600Z 22.8N 114.8W   75 KT  85 MPH

 36H  09/1800Z 24.2N 116.8W   65 KT  75 MPH

 48H  10/0600Z 25.3N 119.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

 72H  11/0600Z 26.8N 122.9W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

 96H  12/0600Z 27.0N 125.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  13/0600Z 27.3N 127.2W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 080857 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

300 AM MDT WED AUG 08 2018



...JOHN EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...





SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.0N 111.6W

ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN DUE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.6 WEST. JOHN IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH (20 KM/H). A TURN BACK TOWARD

THE NORTHWEST AT A FASTER FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER

THIS MORNING, WITH THAT MOTION CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK, JOHN WILL PASS WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA

CALIFORNIA SUR TODAY AND THURSDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH (155 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  GRADUAL WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS, AND

JOHN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BY LATE THURSDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES

(185 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 972 MB (28.71 INCHES).



2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 080857

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Hurricane John Advisory Number  11

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

300 AM MDT Wed Aug 08 2018



...JOHN EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF BAJA CALIFORNIA...





SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...20.0N 111.6W

ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula

should monitor the progress of John due to locally heavy rainfall.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located

near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 111.6 West. John is moving

toward the north-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn back toward

the northwest at a faster forward speed is expected to begin later

this morning, with that motion continuing for the next few days.

On the forecast track, John will pass well to the southwest of Baja

California Sur today and Thursday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Gradual weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and

John is expected to become a tropical storm by late Thursday.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles

(185 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb (28.71 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

1 to 2 inches over far southern Baja California Sur, with isolated

maximum amounts of 3 inches through Thursday.



SURF:  Swells generated by John will affect portions of the

coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja

California peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.



$$

Forecaster Stewart



2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 080857 RRA

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

0900 UTC WED AUG 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 111.6W AT 08/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 111.6W AT 08/0900Z

AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 111.2W



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.1N 112.8W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.8N 114.8W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.2N 116.8W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.3N 119.0W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.

34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.8N 122.9W...POST-TROPICAL



2018-08-08 09:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 080857

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

0900 UTC WED AUG 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 111.6W AT 08/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  11 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  972 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 111.6W AT 08/0900Z

AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 111.2W



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.1N 112.8W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.8N 114.8W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.2N 116.8W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.3N 119.0W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.

34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 26.8N 122.9W...POST-TROPICAL

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.

34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 27.0N 125.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 27.3N 127.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  15 KT...GUSTS  20 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 111.6W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER STEWART



2018-08-08 07:46

WTPN33 PHNC 080400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 010//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 010

   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   080000Z --- NEAR 18.9N 110.8W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 110.8W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   081200Z --- 20.4N 112.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   090000Z --- 22.0N 114.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   091200Z --- 23.5N 116.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   100000Z --- 24.9N 118.1W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 26.6N 122.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 27.0N 125.4W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   130000Z --- 27.0N 127.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    ---

REMARKS:

080400Z POSITION NEAR 19.4N 111.3W.

HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 895 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z

IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081000Z, 081600Z, 082200Z AND 090400Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 080229 RRA

TCDEP2



HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

900 PM MDT TUE AUG 07 2018



THE EYE OF JOHN PASSED A SHORT DISTANCE EAST OF SOCORRO ISLAND A

FEW HOURS AGO, AND IT IS ESTIMATED THAT THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS

NARROWLY MISSED THE ISLAND.  AN AUTOMATED STATION AT SOCORRO

RECORDED A WIND GUST TO 70 KT AT 2300 UTC.  ALTHOUGH JOHN'S INNER

CORE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED SOMEWHAT, DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY

NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB STILL SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF 90 KT FOR

THIS ADVISORY.  ALTHOUGH JOHN SHOULD REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS FOR

THE NEXT DAY OR SO, THE DETERIORATION OF ITS CONVECTION SUGGESTS IT

IS NOW IN A SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT, SO NO

FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST

IS SOMEWHAT ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE FIRST 1-2 DAYS AND

NEAR THE CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS NORTHWESTWARD OR 315/9 KT.  THE

HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE

SOUTHWESTERN SIDE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF

DAYS.  LATER, THE WEAKENING CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO TURN TO THE LEFT

AND EVENTUALLY MOVE WESTWARD FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW

OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH THE PREVIOUS ONE AND

MUCH OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE, WHICH REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.



ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF

THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE FORECAST

TRACK OR AN UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN THE SIZE OF THE OUTER WIND FIELD

OF THE HURRICANE COULD BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS CLOSE TO



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 080229

TCDEP2



Hurricane John Discussion Number  10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

900 PM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018



The eye of John passed a short distance east of Socorro Island a

few hours ago, and it is estimated that the radius of maximum winds

narrowly missed the island.  An automated station at Socorro

recorded a wind gust to 70 kt at 2300 UTC.  Although John's inner

core convection has weakened somewhat, Dvorak Current Intensity

numbers from TAFB and SAB still support an intensity of 90 kt for

this advisory.  Although John should remain over warm waters for

the next day or so, the deterioration of its convection suggests it

is now in a somewhat less favorable atmospheric environment, so no

further strengthening is expected.  The official intensity forecast

is somewhat above the model consensus for the first 1-2 days and

near the consensus thereafter.



The initial motion estimate remains northwestward or 315/9 kt.  The

hurricane should continue to move northwestward along the

southwestern side of a mid-tropospheric ridge for the next couple of

days.  Later, the weakening cyclone is likely to turn to the left

and eventually move westward following the low-level flow.  The new

official forecast is in close agreement with the previous one and

much of the track model guidance, which remains in good agreement.



Although the core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of

the Baja California Peninsula, an eastward shift of the forecast

track or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer wind field

of the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds close to

the west coast of the peninsula.  In addition, a surge of moisture

around John's outer circulation is expected to bring some locally

heavy rainfall to portions of Baja California Sur during the next

couple of days.  Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the

Baja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  08/0300Z 19.2N 111.1W   90 KT 105 MPH

 12H  08/1200Z 20.4N 112.3W   90 KT 105 MPH

 24H  09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

 36H  09/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

 48H  10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  11/0000Z 26.6N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH

 96H  12/0000Z 27.0N 125.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

120H  13/0000Z 27.0N 127.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 072035 RRA

TCDEP2



HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

300 PM MDT TUE AUG 07 2018



THE EYE OF JOHN HAS BECOME MORE DISTINCT IN VISIBLE AND INFRARED

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS, HOWEVER THE SURROUNDING

CONVECTIVE CLOUDS TOPS HAVE WARMED, AND A 1642 UTC AMSU

MICROWAVE OVERPASS INDICATED THAT THE EYEWALL WAS OPEN OVER THE

NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION.  ALTHOUGH OBJECTIVE DVORAK

T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO T5.6, SUBJECTIVE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND

SAB ARE UNCHANGED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KT.  THERE

IS STILL AN OPPORTUNITY FOR JOHN TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT

OR EARLY WEDNESDAY WHILE IT REMAINS OVER WARM WATER AND IN A LOW

SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  AFTER THAT TIME, THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING

OVER DECREASING SSTS AND INTO A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC

ENVIRONMENT. THESE CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY TO RAPID

WEAKENING AND JOHN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY

DAY 4 WHEN IT IS OVER SSTS OF 20-21C.  THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD

IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE AS TO HOW RAPID JOHN WILL SPIN DOWN.  THE

NHC FORECAST IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL, BUT

SHOWS A FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING THAN THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.



JOHN IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 320/9 KT.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD

CONTINUE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF A

MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS.

AFTER THAT TIME, THE SYSTEM SHOULD TURN WESTWARD AS IT WEAKENS AND

COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE TRACK

GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AND THE NEW NHC TRACK IS



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 072035

TCDEP2



Hurricane John Discussion Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

300 PM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018



The eye of John has become more distinct in visible and infrared

satellite imagery during the past few hours, however the surrounding

convective clouds tops have warmed, and a 1642 UTC AMSU

microwave overpass indicated that the eyewall was open over the

northwestern portion of the circulation.  Although objective Dvorak

T-numbers have increased to T5.6, subjective estimates from TAFB and

SAB are unchanged so the initial intensity is kept at 90 kt.  There

is still an opportunity for John to become a major hurricane tonight

or early Wednesday while it remains over warm water and in a low

shear environment.  After that time, the hurricane will be moving

over decreasing SSTs and into a less favorable thermodynamic

environment. These conditions should result in steady to rapid

weakening and John is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone by

day 4 when it is over SSTs of 20-21C.  There is significant spread

in the intensity guidance as to how rapid John will spin down.  The

NHC forecast is a little higher than the ICON consensus model, but

shows a faster rate of weakening than the statistical guidance.



John is moving northwestward or 320/9 kt.  The hurricane should

continue moving northwestward around the western side of a

mid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next 2-3 days.

After that time, the system should turn westward as it weakens and

comes under the influence of the low-level flow.  The track

guidance remains in excellent agreement and the new NHC track is

essentially an update of the previous advisory.



Although the core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of

the Baja California Peninsula, an eastward shift of the forecast

track or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer wind field

of the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds close to

the west coast of the peninsula.  In addition, a surge of moisture

around John's outer circulation is expected to bring some locally

heavy rainfall to portions of Baja California Sur during the next

couple of days.  Therefore, interests in the southern portion of the

Baja California Peninsula should monitor the progress of John.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/2100Z 18.7N 110.5W   90 KT 105 MPH

 12H  08/0600Z 19.9N 111.6W  100 KT 115 MPH

 24H  08/1800Z 21.5N 113.3W   95 KT 110 MPH

 36H  09/0600Z 23.0N 115.2W   80 KT  90 MPH

 48H  09/1800Z 24.4N 117.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

 72H  10/1800Z 26.6N 121.3W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  11/1800Z 27.0N 124.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

120H  12/1800Z 27.0N 127.3W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 071447 RRA

TCDEP2



HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

900 AM MDT TUE AUG 07 2018



VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW THE

RAGGED EYE OF JOHN THIS MORNING, BUT THE SURROUNDING CONVECTIVE

CLOUD TOPS HAVE BECOME MORE SYMMETRIC AND COOLED SINCE THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY.  THE LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM

TAFB AND SAB WERE T5.0/90 KT, WHICH SUPPORT INCREASING THE INITIAL

WIND SPEED TO THAT VALUE.  JOHN HAS ABOUT ANOTHER 24 HOURS OVER

WARM WATER IN WHICH TO INTENSIFY, AND THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

CALLS FOR JOHN TO ATTAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH LATER TODAY OR

TONIGHT.  AFTER THAT TIME, DECREASING SSTS AND A MORE STABLE

ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO STEADY OR RAPID WEAKENING, AND JOHN IS

EXPECTED TO BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE BY DAY 4.  THE NHC

INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE SHIPS AND HCCA MODELS FOR THE FIRST

12 TO 24 HOURS, AND THEN IS BETWEEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MODELS AND

THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS THEREAFTER.



JOHN IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD OR 320/8 KT.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN

GOOD AGREEMENT ON TAKING THE HURRICANE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE

WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

ONCE JOHN WEAKENS AND BECOMES A VERTICALLY SHALLOW SYSTEM IT SHOULD

TURN WESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS

NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.



THE DANGEROUS CORE OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF

THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER, AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE

FORECAST TRACK OR AN UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN THE SIZE OF THE OUTER

WIND FIELD OF THE HURRICANE COULD BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 071447

TCDEP2



Hurricane John Discussion Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

900 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018



Visible and infrared satellite images have continued to show the

ragged eye of John this morning, but the surrounding convective

cloud tops have become more symmetric and cooled since the previous

advisory.  The latest Dvorak satellite intensity estimates from

TAFB and SAB were T5.0/90 kt, which support increasing the initial

wind speed to that value.  John has about another 24 hours over

warm water in which to intensify, and the NHC intensity forecast

calls for John to attain major hurricane strength later today or

tonight.  After that time, decreasing SSTs and a more stable

environment should lead to steady or rapid weakening, and John is

expected to become a post-tropical cyclone by day 4.  The NHC

intensity forecast is near the SHIPS and HCCA models for the first

12 to 24 hours, and then is between the aforementioned models and

the intensity consensus thereafter.



John is moving northwestward or 320/8 kt.  The track guidance is in

good agreement on taking the hurricane northwestward around the

western portion of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico.

Once John weakens and becomes a vertically shallow system it should

turn westward in the low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is

near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope.



The dangerous core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of

the Baja California Peninsula.  However, an eastward shift of the

forecast track or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer

wind field of the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds

to portions of the west coast of the peninsula. Therefore, interests

in the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula should

monitor the progress of this hurricane.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/1500Z 17.9N 109.8W   90 KT 105 MPH

 12H  08/0000Z 18.9N 110.7W  100 KT 115 MPH

 24H  08/1200Z 20.5N 112.2W  105 KT 120 MPH

 36H  09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W   90 KT 105 MPH

 48H  09/1200Z 23.5N 116.1W   80 KT  90 MPH

 72H  10/1200Z 26.2N 120.2W   50 KT  60 MPH

 96H  11/1200Z 27.0N 123.8W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

120H  12/1200Z 27.0N 126.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 080228 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

900 PM MDT TUE AUG 07 2018



...JOHN BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM SOCORRO AFTER PASSING JUST TO

THE EAST OF THE ISLAND...





SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.2N 111.1W

ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH, LONGITUDE 111.1 WEST.  JOHN IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND A FASTER

NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ON THE

FORECAST TRACK, JOHN SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA

CALIFORNIA SUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY

OR SO, AND A WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AND

CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES

(185 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB (28.62 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 080228

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Hurricane John Advisory Number  10

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

900 PM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018



...JOHN BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM SOCORRO AFTER PASSING JUST TO

THE EAST OF THE ISLAND...





SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.2N 111.1W

ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula

should monitor the progress of John.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located

near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 111.1 West.  John is moving

toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a faster

northwestward motion is forecast for the next few days.  On the

forecast track, John should pass to the southwest of Baja

California Sur Wednesday and Thursday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Little change in strength is forecast during the next day

or so, and a weakening trend is expected to begin on Wednesday and

continue into Friday.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles

(185 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

1 to 2 inches over far southern Baja California Sur, with isolated

maximum amounts of 3 inches through Wednesday.



SURF:  Swells generated by John will affect portions of the

coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja

California peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.



$$

Forecaster Pasch



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 072034 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

300 PM MDT TUE AUG 07 2018



...JOHN MAINTAINING 105-MPH WINDS...





SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.7N 110.5W

ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 18.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 110.5 WEST. JOHN IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH (17 KM/H), AND A FASTER

NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ON THE

FORECAST TRACK, JOHN SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA

CALIFORNIA SUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE AND JOHN COULD

BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.  STEADY

WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE

INTO FRIDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES

(185 KM).  A WIND GUST TO 52 MPH (83 KM/H) WAS RECENTLY REPORTED ON

SOCORRO ISLAND.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 969 MB (28.62 INCHES).



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 072034

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Hurricane John Advisory Number   9

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

300 PM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018



...JOHN MAINTAINING 105-MPH WINDS...





SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...18.7N 110.5W

ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula

should monitor the progress of John.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located

near latitude 18.7 North, longitude 110.5 West. John is moving

toward the northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and a faster

northwestward motion is forecast for the next few days.  On the

forecast track, John should pass to the southwest of Baja

California Sur Wednesday and Thursday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher

gusts. Some strengthening is still possible and John could

become a major hurricane tonight or early Wednesday.  Steady

weakening is expected to begin Wednesday night and continue

into Friday.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles

(185 km).  A wind gust to 52 mph (83 km/h) was recently reported on

Socorro Island.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of

1 to 2 inches over far southern Baja Sur, with isolated maximum

amounts of 3 inches through Wednesday.



SURF:  Swells generated by John will affect portions of the

coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja

California peninsula during the next few days.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 071446 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

900 AM MDT TUE AUG 07 2018



...JOHN STILL STRENGTHENING...





SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.9N 109.8W

ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST. JOHN IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND A FASTER

NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ON THE

FORECAST TRACK, JOHN SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA

CALIFORNIA SUR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH (165 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING

THE NEXT 24 HOURS, AND JOHN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE

TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.  STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY FRIDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125 MILES

(205 KM).



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 071446

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Hurricane John Advisory Number   8

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

900 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018



...JOHN STILL STRENGTHENING...





SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.9N 109.8W

ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM WSW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula

should monitor the progress of John.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located

near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 109.8 West. John is moving

toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a faster

northwestward motion is forecast for the next few days.  On the

forecast track, John should pass to the southwest of Baja

California Sur Wednesday and Thursday.



Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h)

with higher gusts.  Some additional strengthening is forecast during

the next 24 hours, and John is forecast to become a major hurricane

tonight or early Wednesday.  Steady weakening is expected to begin

Wednesday night and continue into early Friday.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles

(205 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL:  John is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1

to 2 inches over far southern Baja Sur, with isolated maximum

amounts of 3 inches through Wednesday.



SURF:  Swells generated by John will affect the coasts of

southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja

California peninsula during the next day or so.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 080228 RRA

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.1W AT 08/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 120SW 150NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.1W AT 08/0300Z

AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.8W



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.4N 112.3W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.6N 122.0W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 080228

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

0300 UTC WED AUG 08 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.1W AT 08/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   9 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 120SW 150NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 111.1W AT 08/0300Z

AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 110.8W



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.4N 112.3W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 116.0W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.9N 118.1W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.6N 122.0W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 27.0N 125.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 27.0N 127.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 111.1W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER PASCH



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 072034 RRA

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

2100 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.5W AT 07/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   9 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB

EYE DIAMETER  20 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.5W AT 07/2100Z

AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 110.1W



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.9N 111.6W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N 113.3W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 115.2W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.4N 117.3W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 072034

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

2100 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.5W AT 07/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   9 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB

EYE DIAMETER  20 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..270NE 240SE 150SW 180NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 110.5W AT 07/2100Z

AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 110.1W



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.9N 111.6W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.5N 113.3W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 23.0N 115.2W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.4N 117.3W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 26.6N 121.3W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 27.0N 124.7W...POST-TROPICAL

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.0N 127.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 110.5W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 071446 RRA

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

1500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 109.8W AT 07/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT.......110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 150NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 109.8W AT 07/1500Z

AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 109.5W



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.9N 110.7W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 112.2W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 116.1W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.2N 120.2W



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 071446

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

1500 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 109.8W AT 07/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  969 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.

64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT.......110NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.

12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 150NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 109.8W AT 07/1500Z

AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 109.5W



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.9N 110.7W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.5N 112.2W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.0N 114.0W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 116.1W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 26.2N 120.2W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 27.0N 123.8W...POST-TROPICAL

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 27.0N 126.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 109.8W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPN33 PHNC 072200

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 009//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 009

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   071800Z --- NEAR 18.3N 110.1W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 18.3N 110.1W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   080600Z --- 19.9N 111.6W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   081800Z --- 21.5N 113.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   090600Z --- 23.0N 115.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   091800Z --- 24.4N 117.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 26.6N 121.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 27.0N 124.7W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROPICAL

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   121800Z --- 27.0N 127.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    ---

REMARKS:

072200Z POSITION NEAR 18.8N 110.6W.

HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 943 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z

IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080400Z, 081000Z, 081600Z AND 082200Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (ILEANA) FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

NNNN



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPN33 PHNC 071600

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 008//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 008

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   071200Z --- NEAR 17.5N 109.5W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 17.5N 109.5W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   080000Z --- 18.9N 110.7W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   081200Z --- 20.5N 112.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   090000Z --- 22.0N 114.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   091200Z --- 23.5N 116.1W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   101200Z --- 26.2N 120.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 27.0N 123.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROPICAL

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   121200Z --- 27.0N 126.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    ---

REMARKS:

071600Z POSITION NEAR 18.0N 109.9W.

HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1000 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z

IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072200Z, 080400Z, 081000Z AND 081600Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA)FINAL WARNING (WTPN32 PGTW).

REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KRISTY) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

NNNN



2018-08-08 07:31

WTPN33 PHNC 071000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 007//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 007

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   070600Z --- NEAR 17.0N 108.9W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 17.0N 108.9W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   071800Z --- 18.2N 109.9W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   080600Z --- 19.7N 111.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   081800Z --- 21.3N 112.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   090600Z --- 22.9N 114.9W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   100600Z --- 25.8N 119.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 27.2N 123.1W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROPICAL

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   120600Z --- 27.0N 126.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    ---

REMARKS:

071000Z POSITION NEAR 17.4N 109.2W.

HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1041 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z

IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071600Z, 072200Z, 080400Z AND 081000Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 11E (ILEANA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 13E (KRISTY)

WARNINGS (WTPN34 PHNC) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-08-08 07:16

WTPZ42 KNHC 070831 RRA

TCDEP2



HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

300 AM MDT TUE AUG 07 2018



SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JOHN HAS RESUMED ITS INTENSIFICATION

TREND, WITH A RAGGED EYE SHOWING UP IN THE NIGHT-VISIBLE AND OTHER

CHANNELS.  DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE BETWEEN 70-90 KT, SO 80 KT IS USED

AS THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.  JOHN HAS ANOTHER DAY OR SO TO INTENSIFY

IN A LOW-SHEAR, WARM-WATER ENVIRONMENT BEFORE IT RAPIDLY CROSSES

INTO COOLER WATERS.  THE HURRICANE HAS BEEN INTENSIFYING AT A RATE

OF ABOUT 30 KT/24 HOURS, SO THIS TREND WAS HEAVILY WEIGHTED IN THE

LATEST FORECAST GIVEN THE CONTINUATION OF THE CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT.

ALL OF THE GUIDANCE SHOW A PRETTY STEEP DROP IN INTENSITY AS THE

HURRICANE QUICKLY ENTERS COOL WATERS, WITH RAPID WEAKENING LIKELY.

THE LATEST FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE, BUT SHOWS JOHN

BECOMING POST-TROPICAL BY DAY 4 WHEN IT WILL BE OVER 21C WATERS.



JOHN CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD, NOW AT ABOUT 8 KT.  THE

HURRICANE SHOULD MOVE IN THAT GENERAL DIRECTION BUT FASTER OVER THE

NEXT 3 DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE.  AS JOHN WEAKENS, THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN WESTWARD,

STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY

CLUSTERED AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST TRACK.



THE DANGEROUS CORE OF JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE OF

THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA.  HOWEVER, AN EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE

FORECAST TRACK OR AN UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN THE SIZE OF THE OUTER

WIND FIELD OF THE HURRICANE COULD BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS

TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THEREFORE, INTERESTS



2018-08-08 07:16

WTPZ42 KNHC 070831

TCDEP2



Hurricane John Discussion Number   7

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018



Satellite images indicate that John has resumed its intensification

trend, with a ragged eye showing up in the night-visible and other

channels.  Dvorak estimates are between 70-90 kt, so 80 kt is used

as the initial wind speed.  John has another day or so to intensify

in a low-shear, warm-water environment before it rapidly crosses

into cooler waters.  The hurricane has been intensifying at a rate

of about 30 kt/24 hours, so this trend was heavily weighted in the

latest forecast given the continuation of the conducive environment.

All of the guidance show a pretty steep drop in intensity as the

hurricane quickly enters cool waters, with rapid weakening likely.

The latest forecast is close to the previous one, but shows John

becoming post-tropical by day 4 when it will be over 21C waters.



John continues to move northwestward, now at about 8 kt.  The

hurricane should move in that general direction but faster over the

next 3 days under the influence of a strengthening subtropical

ridge.  As John weakens, the cyclone is forecast to turn westward,

steered more by the low-level ridge.  Guidance remains tightly

clustered and no significant change was made to the previous

forecast track.



The dangerous core of John is forecast to remain well offshore of

the Baja California Peninsula.  However, an eastward shift of the

forecast track or an unexpected increase in the size of the outer

wind field of the hurricane could bring tropical-storm-force winds

to portions of the west coast of the peninsula. Therefore, interests

in the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula should

monitor the progress of this hurricane.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/0900Z 17.3N 109.1W   80 KT  90 MPH

 12H  07/1800Z 18.2N 109.9W   90 KT 105 MPH

 24H  08/0600Z 19.7N 111.2W  105 KT 120 MPH

 36H  08/1800Z 21.3N 112.8W  105 KT 120 MPH

 48H  09/0600Z 22.9N 114.9W   90 KT 105 MPH

 72H  10/0600Z 25.8N 119.3W   55 KT  65 MPH

 96H  11/0600Z 27.2N 123.1W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

120H  12/0600Z 27.0N 126.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



$$

Forecaster Blake



2018-08-08 07:16

WTPZ32 KNHC 070831 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

300 AM MDT TUE AUG 07 2018



...JOHN FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY...





SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.3N 109.1W

ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH, LONGITUDE 109.1 WEST. JOHN IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH (15 KM/H), AND A FASTER

NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ON THE

FORECAST TRACK, JOHN SHOULD PASS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF BAJA

CALIFORNIA SUR LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH (150 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS,

AND JOHN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT OR EARLY

WEDNESDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES (45 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES

(185 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 977 MB (28.85 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND



2018-08-08 07:16

WTPZ32 KNHC 070831

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Hurricane John Advisory Number   7

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

300 AM MDT Tue Aug 07 2018



...JOHN FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY...





SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...17.3N 109.1W

ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...90 MPH...150 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula

should monitor the progress of John.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the eye of Hurricane John was located

near latitude 17.3 North, longitude 109.1 West. John is moving

toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and a faster

northwestward motion is forecast for the next few days.  On the

forecast track, John should pass to the southwest of Baja

California Sur late Wednesday into Thursday.



Maximum sustained winds are near 90 mph (150 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours,

and John is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight or early

Wednesday.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles

(185 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb (28.85 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by John are expected to begin affecting the

coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja

California peninsula during the next day or so.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT.



$$

Forecaster Blake



2018-08-08 07:16

WTPZ22 KNHC 070831 RRA

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

0900 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 109.1W AT 07/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB

EYE DIAMETER  25 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 109.1W AT 07/0900Z

AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.9W



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.2N 109.9W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.7N 111.2W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.3N 112.8W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.9N 114.9W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW  80NW.



2018-08-08 07:16

WTPZ22 KNHC 070831

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

0900 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 109.1W AT 07/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB

EYE DIAMETER  25 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.

64 KT....... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 109.1W AT 07/0900Z

AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 108.9W



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.2N 109.9W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.7N 111.2W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.3N 112.8W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 22.9N 114.9W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

34 KT...110NE 110SE  80SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.8N 119.3W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT... 70NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 27.2N 123.1W...POST-TROPICAL

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 27.0N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 109.1W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER BLAKE



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 070231

TCDEP2



Hurricane John Discussion Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

900 PM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018



John's satellite presentation has not changed significantly during

the past few hours. The tops warmed up significantly earlier, but a

new convective curved band is developing around the eye as we

speak. T-numbers from TAFB and SAB are 4.0 on the Dvorak scale and

on this basis, the initial intensity is keep at 65 kt in this

advisory. The environment is quite favorable for intensification,

and although the intensity guidance is not as aggressive as earlier,

it still shows a strengthening hurricane, and this is reflected in

the NHC forecast. Beyond 3 days, John should be moving over cooler

waters, and rapid weakening should then begin.  John is very likely

to become a remnant low by day 5 or perhaps earlier.



John continues to move toward the northwest or 315 degrees at 7 kt,

steered by the flow around a strong subtropical ridge extending

from the western United States westward across the Pacific. Since

the steering pattern is well established, track models are tightly

clustered increasing the confidence in the forecast. NHC keeps the

hurricane in the middle of the guidance envelope very close to

the HCCA corrected consensus and is not very different from the

previous one.



The core of John with its strongest winds is forecast to remain well

off the Baja California Peninsula, but having said that, any

deviation to the right of the track or an unexpected increase in the

area of tropical force winds, could bring tropical-storm-force

winds to portions of the west coast of the peninsula. Therefore,

interests in the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula

should monitor the progress of this hurricane.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  07/0300Z 16.7N 108.6W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  07/1200Z 17.4N 109.3W   80 KT  90 MPH

 24H  08/0000Z 18.8N 110.4W   95 KT 110 MPH

 36H  08/1200Z 20.4N 112.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

 48H  09/0000Z 22.3N 114.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

 72H  10/0000Z 25.5N 118.5W   70 KT  80 MPH

 96H  11/0000Z 27.5N 122.5W   45 KT  50 MPH

120H  12/0000Z 27.5N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 070231 RRA

TCDEP2



HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

900 PM MDT MON AUG 06 2018



JOHN'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING

THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE TOPS WARMED UP SIGNIFICANTLY EARLIER, BUT A

NEW CONVECTIVE CURVED BAND IS DEVELOPING AROUND THE EYE AS WE

SPEAK. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND

ON THIS BASIS, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEEP AT 65 KT IN THIS

ADVISORY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION,

AND ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE AS EARLIER,

IT STILL SHOWS A STRENGTHENING HURRICANE, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN

THE NHC FORECAST. BEYOND 3 DAYS, JOHN SHOULD BE MOVING OVER COOLER

WATERS, AND RAPID WEAKENING SHOULD THEN BEGIN.  JOHN IS VERY LIKELY

TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5 OR PERHAPS EARLIER.



JOHN CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 KT,

STEERED BY THE FLOW AROUND A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING

FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS THE PACIFIC. SINCE

THE STEERING PATTERN IS WELL ESTABLISHED, TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY

CLUSTERED INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. NHC KEEPS THE

HURRICANE IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE VERY CLOSE TO

THE HCCA CORRECTED CONSENSUS AND IS NOT VERY DIFFERENT FROM THE

PREVIOUS ONE.



THE CORE OF JOHN WITH ITS STRONGEST WINDS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WELL

OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA, BUT HAVING SAID THAT, ANY

DEVIATION TO THE RIGHT OF THE TRACK OR AN UNEXPECTED INCREASE IN THE

AREA OF TROPICAL FORCE WINDS, COULD BRING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE

WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THEREFORE,



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 062048 RRA

TCDEP2



HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

300 PM MDT MON AUG 06 2018



JOHN HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN

BANDING AND VERY RECENT PICTURES SHOW THE FORMATION OF A BANDING

EYE.  AS A RESULT, THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KT,

WHICH IS BASED ON A TAFB DVORAK T-NUMBER OF 4.0 AND UW/CIMSS

OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT ARE CLOSE TO 65 KT.  JOHN BECOMES

THE FIFTH HURRICANE OF THE 2018 EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC HURRICANE

SEASON.



JOHN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR

STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE

INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT QUITE AS AGGRESSIVE AS THIS MORNING, THE

VARIOUS RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDICES STILL SHOW A HIGH LIKELIHOOD

OF RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THE NHC FORECAST

ONCE AGAIN CALLS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION AND BRINGS JOHN TO MAJOR

HURRICANE STRENGTH WITHIN 36 H. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST

IS NEAR THE UPPER-END OF THE GUIDANCE IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE

LATEST SHIPS, HCCA, AND FSSE MODELS.  AFTER 48 H, JOHN WILL BE

MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS AND INTO A LESS CONDUCIVE

THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN RAPID WEAKENING,

AND JOHN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY DAY 5.



JOHN IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 7 KT.  THE HURRICANE IS

FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A

MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ONCE

THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES A MORE SHALLOW CYCLONE LATE IN THE



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 062048

TCDEP2



Hurricane John Discussion Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

300 PM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018



John has continued to intensify since the previous advisory.

Visible satellite images continue to indicate an increase in

banding and very recent pictures show the formation of a banding

eye.  As a result, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt,

which is based on a TAFB Dvorak T-number of 4.0 and UW/CIMSS

objective Dvorak estimates that are close to 65 kt.  John becomes

the fifth hurricane of the 2018 eastern North Pacific hurricane

season.



John is forecast to remain within a very favorable environment for

strengthening during the next day or so.  Although some of the

intensity guidance is not quite as aggressive as this morning, the

various rapid intensification indices still show a high likelihood

of rapid strengthening during the next 24 hours.  The NHC forecast

once again calls for rapid intensification and brings John to major

hurricane strength within 36 h. The updated NHC intensity forecast

is near the upper-end of the guidance in best agreement with the

latest SHIPS, HCCA, and FSSE models.  After 48 h, John will be

moving over much cooler waters and into a less conducive

thermodynamic environment.  This should result in rapid weakening,

and John is forecast to become a remnant low by day 5.



John is moving northwestward at about 7 kt.  The hurricane is

forecast to move northwestward around the western periphery of a

mid-level ridge over northern Mexico during the next few days.  Once

the system weakens and becomes a more shallow cyclone late in the

forecast period, it should turn westward in the low-level flow.

The overall track envelope has shifted eastward this cycle, with

the GFS and HWRF along the eastern edge of the track guidance

envelope while the ECMWF and UKMET are along the western side.

The new NHC forecast has been adjusted eastward and lies between

the ECMWF and the various consensus aids.



Due to the eastward shift in the forecast track and the predicted

increase in the size of John, interests in the southern portion of

the Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of this

system.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/2100Z 16.0N 108.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

 12H  07/0600Z 16.8N 108.7W   80 KT  90 MPH

 24H  07/1800Z 18.1N 109.9W   95 KT 110 MPH

 36H  08/0600Z 19.6N 111.3W  110 KT 125 MPH

 48H  08/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W  105 KT 120 MPH

 72H  09/1800Z 24.3N 117.0W   70 KT  80 MPH

 96H  10/1800Z 26.6N 121.2W   45 KT  50 MPH

120H  11/1800Z 27.2N 124.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 061522 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

900 AM MDT MON AUG 06 2018



CORRECTED TO REMOVE THE PERCENT SYMBOLS IN THE TEXT



EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA

SHOW THAT JOHN CONTINUES TO QUICKLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.

BANDING FEATURES NOW WRAP NEARLY COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER, WITH

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CDO.  ONE-MINUTE GOES-16

IMAGERY ALSO SHOW SEVERAL OVERSHOOTING CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR

AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.  A TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 WAS

THE BASIS OF THE 1200 UTC INTENSITY OF 55 KT, BUT WITH THE INCREASE

IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME, AND RAW OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ABOVE

4.0 FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN

INCREASED TO 60 KT.



JOHN IS WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.

THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS AROUND 30C, AND IN A LOW

SHEAR AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO

ALLOW FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE SHIPS

RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A NEARLY 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF RI

OVER THE THE NEXT 24 H, AND DTOPS GIVES AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF A

40 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 H.  BASED ON THESE

DATA AND THE VERY AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A

40 KT INCREASE IN STRENGTH FROM 1200 THIS MORNING THROUGH 1200 UTC

TUESDAY. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY THAT IS CLOSE

TO THE FSSE AND HCCA MODELS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME,

JOHN WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE

ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING.



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 061522 CCB

TCDEP2



Tropical Storm John Discussion Number   4...Corrected

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

900 AM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018



Corrected to remove the percent symbols in the text



Early morning visible satellite images and recent microwave data

show that John continues to quickly become better organized.

Banding features now wrap nearly completely around the center, with

the development of a fairly symmetric CDO.  One-minute GOES-16

imagery also show several overshooting convective cloud tops near

and to the east of the center.  A TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.5 was

the basis of the 1200 UTC intensity of 55 kt, but with the increase

in organization since that time, and raw objective T-numbers above

4.0 for the past few hours, the advisory intensity has been

increased to 60 kt.



John is within a very favorable environment for intensification.

The hurricane will be moving over SSTs around 30C, and in a low

shear and moist environment.  These conditions are expected to

allow for rapid strengthening during the next day or so.  The SHIPS

Rapid Intensification Index shows a nearly 80 percent chance of RI

over the the next 24 h, and DTOPS gives an 80 percent chance of a

40 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 h.  Based on these

data and the very aggressive guidance, the NHC forecast calls for a

40 kt increase in strength from 1200 this morning through 1200 UTC

Tuesday. The NHC forecast calls for a peak intensity that is close

to the FSSE and HCCA models in 36 to 48 hours.  After that time,

John will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable

environment which is expected to cause rapid weakening.



John is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt.  The tropical

storm should turn northwestward and accelerate over the next day or

so as it is steered around the western portion of a mid-level ridge

that is centered over northern Mexico.  As noted in the previous

discussion, some interaction with Ileana is likely, which could

cause some slow down of the forward speed of John.  However since

John is the larger system, it should remain the dominant tropical

cyclone.  The latest dynamical model guidance was similar to the

previous cycle and no significant change to the NHC forecast was

required. The NHC forecast is in best agreement with the ECMWF and

is close to the HFIP corrected consensus.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/1500Z 15.5N 107.9W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  07/0000Z 16.0N 108.6W   75 KT  85 MPH

 24H  07/1200Z 17.0N 109.6W   95 KT 110 MPH

 36H  08/0000Z 18.3N 111.0W  110 KT 125 MPH

 48H  08/1200Z 19.8N 112.7W  110 KT 125 MPH

 72H  09/1200Z 22.9N 116.6W   85 KT 100 MPH

 96H  10/1200Z 25.5N 120.7W   55 KT  65 MPH

120H  11/1200Z 26.8N 125.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 061513 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   4...CORRECTED

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

900 AM MDT MON AUG 06 2018



CORRECTED TO REMOVE THE PERCENT SYMBOLS IN THE TEXT



EARLY MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA

SHOW THAT JOHN CONTINUES TO QUICKLY BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED.

BANDING FEATURES NOW WRAP NEARLY COMPLETELY AROUND THE CENTER, WITH

THE DEVELOPED OF A FAIRLY SYMMETRIC CDO.  ONE-MINUTE GOES-16 IMAGERY

ALSO SHOW SEVERAL OVERSHOOTING CONVECTIVE CLOUD TOPS NEAR AND TO THE

EAST OF THE CENTER.  A TAFB DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.5 WAS THE BASIS OF

THE 1200 UTC INTENSITY OF 55 KT, BUT WITH THE INCREASE IN

ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME, AND RAW OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ABOVE 4.0

FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS, THE ADVISORY INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO

60 KT.



JOHN IS WITHIN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR INTENSIFICATION.

THE HURRICANE WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS AROUND 30C, AND IN A LOW

SHEAR AND MOIST ENVIRONMENT.  THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO

ALLOW FOR RAPID STRENGTHENING DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THE SHIPS

RAPID INTENSIFICATION INDEX SHOWS A NEARLY 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF RI

OVER THE THE NEXT 24 H, AND DTOPS GIVES AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF A

40 KT INCREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 24 H.  BASED ON THESE

DATA AND THE VERY AGGRESSIVE GUIDANCE, THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A

40 KT INCREASE IN STRENGTH FROM 1200 THIS MORNING THROUGH 1200 UTC

TUESDAY. THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY THAT IS CLOSE

TO THE FSSE AND HCCA MODELS IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  AFTER THAT TIME,

JOHN WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO A MORE STABLE

ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE RAPID WEAKENING.



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 061513 CCA

TCDEP2



Tropical Storm John Discussion Number   4...Corrected

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

900 AM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018



Corrected to remove the percent symbols in the text



Early morning visible satellite images and recent microwave data

show that John continues to quickly become better organized.

Banding features now wrap nearly completely around the center, with

the developed of a fairly symmetric CDO.  One-minute GOES-16 imagery

also show several overshooting convective cloud tops near and to the

east of the center.  A TAFB Dvorak estimate of T3.5 was the basis of

the 1200 UTC intensity of 55 kt, but with the increase in

organization since that time, and raw objective T-numbers above 4.0

for the past few hours, the advisory intensity has been increased to

60 kt.



John is within a very favorable environment for intensification.

The hurricane will be moving over SSTs around 30C, and in a low

shear and moist environment.  These conditions are expected to

allow for rapid strengthening during the next day or so.  The SHIPS

Rapid Intensification Index shows a nearly 80 percent chance of RI

over the the next 24 h, and DTOPS gives an 80 percent chance of a

40 kt increase in intensity during the next 24 h.  Based on these

data and the very aggressive guidance, the NHC forecast calls for a

40 kt increase in strength from 1200 this morning through 1200 UTC

Tuesday. The NHC forecast calls for a peak intensity that is close

to the FSSE and HCCA models in 36 to 48 hours.  After that time,

John will be moving over cooler waters and into a more stable

environment which is expected to cause rapid weakening.



John is moving west-northwestward at about 7 kt.  The tropical

storm should turn northwestward and accelerate over the next day or

so as it is steered around the western portion of a mid-level ridge

that is centered over northern Mexico.  As noted in the previous

discussion, some interaction with Ileana is likely, which could

cause some slow down of the forward speed of John.  However since

John is the larger system, it should remain the dominant tropical

cyclone.  The latest dynamical model guidance was similar to the

previous cycle and no significant change to the NHC forecast was

required. The NHC forecast is in best agreement with the ECMWF and

is close to the HFIP corrected consensus.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/1500Z 15.5N 107.9W   60 KT  70 MPH

 12H  07/0000Z 16.0N 108.6W   75 KT  85 MPH

 24H  07/1200Z 17.0N 109.6W   95 KT 110 MPH

 36H  08/0000Z 18.3N 111.0W  110 KT 125 MPH

 48H  08/1200Z 19.8N 112.7W  110 KT 125 MPH

 72H  09/1200Z 22.9N 116.6W   85 KT 100 MPH

 96H  10/1200Z 25.5N 120.7W   55 KT  65 MPH

120H  11/1200Z 26.8N 125.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 070230

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Hurricane John Advisory Number   6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

900 PM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018



...JOHN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY...





SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.7N 108.6W

ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula

should monitor the progress of John.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the ragged eye of Hurricane John was

located near latitude 16.7 North, longitude 108.6 West. John is

moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a faster

northwestward motion is forecast for the next few days.



Maximum sustained winds remain near 75 mph (120 km/h) with

higher gusts.  Some strengthening is forecast and John is expected

to become a major hurricane by late Tuesday or early Wednesday.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles

(165 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by John are expected to begin affecting the

coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja

California peninsula during the next day or so.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.



$$

Forecaster Avila



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 070230 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

900 PM MDT MON AUG 06 2018



...JOHN FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON TUESDAY...





SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.7N 108.6W

ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM SW OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO

ABOUT 435 MI...700 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE RAGGED EYE OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.6 WEST. JOHN IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND A FASTER

NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H) WITH

HIGHER GUSTS.  SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND JOHN IS EXPECTED

TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES

(165 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 989 MB (29.21 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE

COASTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 062047 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

HURRICANE JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

300 PM MDT MON AUG 06 2018



...JOHN BECOMES A HURRICANE...

..............ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...





SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.0N 108.0W

ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH, LONGITUDE 108.0 WEST. JOHN IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND A FASTER

NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND JOHN

IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY LATE TUESDAY.



HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES (35 KM) FROM THE

CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES

(165 KM).



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 990 MB (29.24 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE

COASTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 062047

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Hurricane John Advisory Number   5

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

300 PM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018



...JOHN BECOMES A HURRICANE...

...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING EXPECTED...





SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.0N 108.0W

ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

ABOUT 490 MI...790 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.



Interests in the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula

should monitor the progress of John.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located

near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 108.0 West. John is moving

toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a faster

northwestward motion is forecast for the next few days.



Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h)

with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast and John

is expected to become a major hurricane by late Tuesday.



Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles

(165 km).



The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by John are expected to begin affecting the

coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja

California peninsula during the next day or so.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 061439 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

900 AM MDT MON AUG 06 2018



...JOHN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...





SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.5N 107.9W

ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.5 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.9 WEST.  JOHN IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND A FASTER

NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH (110 KM/H) WITH HIGHER

GUSTS.  RAPID STRENGTHENING IS PREDICTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO,

AND JOHN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY, AND REACH

MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH ON TUESDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES (130 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB (29.33 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE

COASTS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA

CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THESE SWELLS ARE

LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS.



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 061439

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm John Advisory Number   4

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

900 AM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018



...JOHN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...





SUMMARY OF 900 AM MDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.5N 107.9W

ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

ABOUT 525 MI...850 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...993 MB...29.33 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 900 AM MDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was

located near latitude 15.5 North, longitude 107.9 West.  John is

moving toward the west-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and a faster

northwestward motion is forecast for the next few days.



Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher

gusts.  Rapid strengthening is predicted during the next day or so,

and John is expected to become a hurricane later today, and reach

major hurricane strength on Tuesday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by John are expected to begin affecting the

coasts of southwestern Mexico and the southern portion of the Baja

California peninsula during the next day or so.  These swells are

likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Please consult products from your local weather office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 300 PM MDT.



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 070230 RRA

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

0300 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 108.6W AT 07/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB

EYE DIAMETER  10 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.

64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 108.6W AT 07/0300Z

AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.4W



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.4N 109.3W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.8N 110.4W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  40SE  10SW  30NW.

50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 130SE  80SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.4N 112.0W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.3N 114.0W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

34 KT...100NE 120SE  60SW  80NW.



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 070230

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

0300 UTC TUE AUG 07 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 108.6W AT 07/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB

EYE DIAMETER  10 NM

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.

64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.

50 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 108.6W AT 07/0300Z

AT 07/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 108.4W



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.4N 109.3W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT... 80NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.8N 110.4W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  40SE  10SW  30NW.

50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE 130SE  80SW 130NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 20.4N 112.0W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...120NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 22.3N 114.0W

MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.

34 KT...100NE 120SE  60SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 25.5N 118.5W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.

34 KT... 80NE  80SE  50SW  70NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 27.5N 122.5W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 27.5N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 108.6W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER AVILA



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 062047 RRA

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

2100 UTC MON AUG 06 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.0W AT 06/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.

64 KT....... 15NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.0W AT 06/2100Z

AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.9W



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.8N 108.7W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.1N 109.9W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.6N 111.3W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.3N 117.0W



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 061439

TCMEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

1500 UTC MON AUG 06 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 107.9W AT 06/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 107.9W AT 06/1500Z

AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.7W



FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.0N 108.6W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.

50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 109.6W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.3N 111.0W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.8N 112.7W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.9N 116.6W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 25.5N 120.7W

MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 26.8N 125.0W...POST-TROPICAL

MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 107.9W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 061439 RRA

TCMEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

1500 UTC MON AUG 06 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 107.9W AT 06/1500Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  993 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.

50 KT....... 30NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.

34 KT....... 70NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.

12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE  90SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 107.9W AT 06/1500Z

AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.7W



FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.0N 108.6W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  15SE  10SW  15NW.

50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.0N 109.6W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.3N 111.0W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 19.8N 112.7W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 22.9N 116.6W

MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 062047

TCMEP2



HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

2100 UTC MON AUG 06 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



INTERESTS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA

SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOHN.



HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.0W AT 06/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  990 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.

64 KT....... 15NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.

34 KT....... 70NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.

12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 108.0W AT 06/2100Z

AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 107.9W



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.8N 108.7W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE  80SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.1N 109.9W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.6N 111.3W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 110SE  90SW 110NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 21.0N 112.8W

MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  30SE  25SW  30NW.

50 KT... 70NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.

34 KT...140NE 120SE 100SW 120NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.3N 117.0W

MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 100SE  80SW 100NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 26.6N 121.2W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 27.2N 124.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.0N 108.0W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPN33 PHNC 062200

WARNING    ATCG MIL 12E NEP 180806223753

2018080618 12E JOHN       005  03 335 07 SATL 020

T000 159N 1079W 060 R050 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD

T012 168N 1087W 080 R064 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 080 SW QD 090 NW QD

T024 181N 1099W 095 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD

T036 196N 1113W 110 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 110 NW QD

T048 210N 1128W 105 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 120 SE QD 100 SW QD 120 NW QD

T072 243N 1170W 070 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW QD 100 NW QD

T096 266N 1212W 045

T120 272N 1248W 030

AMP

    120HR POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 005

1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 005

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   061800Z --- NEAR 15.9N 107.9W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 107.9W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   070600Z --- 16.8N 108.7W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   071800Z --- 18.1N 109.9W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   080600Z --- 19.6N 111.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   081800Z --- 21.0N 112.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   091800Z --- 24.3N 117.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   101800Z --- 26.6N 121.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   111800Z --- 27.2N 124.8W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    ---

REMARKS:

062200Z POSITION NEAR 16.2N 108.2W.

TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1125 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 070400Z, 071000Z, 071600Z AND 072200Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

1218072900 100N 970W  15

1218072906 100N 970W  15

1218072912 100N 970W  15

1218072918 100N 970W  15

1218073000 100N 970W  15

1218073006 100N 970W  15

1218073012 100N 970W  15

1218073018 100N 970W  15

1218073100 100N 970W  15

1218073106 100N 970W  15

1218073112 100N 970W  15

1218073118 100N 970W  15

1218080100 100N 970W  15

1218080106 100N 970W  15

1218080112 100N 970W  15

1218080118 100N 970W  15

1218080200 100N 970W  15

1218080206 100N 970W  15

1218080212 100N 970W  15

1218080218 100N 970W  15

1218080300 100N 970W  15

1218080306 100N 970W  15

1218080312 106N 982W  25

1218080318 110N 990W  25

1218080400 114N 998W  25

1218080406 119N1006W  25

1218080412 128N1023W  25

1218080418 128N1032W  25

1218080500 129N1040W  25

1218080506 132N1046W  25

1218080512 137N1050W  30

1218080518 143N1055W  30

1218080600 146N1062W  35

1218080606 149N1070W  45

1218080612 153N1076W  55

1218080612 153N1076W  55

1218080618 159N1079W  60

1218080618 159N1079W  60

NNNN



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPN33 PHNC 070400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 006//

RMKS/

1. HURRICANE 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 006

   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 12E

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   070000Z --- NEAR 16.4N 108.4W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 16.4N 108.4W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   071200Z --- 17.4N 109.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   080000Z --- 18.8N 110.4W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   081200Z --- 20.4N 112.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 13 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   090000Z --- 22.3N 114.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 13 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   100000Z --- 25.5N 118.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 27.5N 122.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   120000Z --- 27.5N 126.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

    ---

REMARKS:

070400Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 108.7W.

HURRICANE 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1086 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z

IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071000Z, 071600Z, 072200Z AND 080400Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (ILEANA)

WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPN33 PHNC 061600

WARNING    ATCG MIL 12E NEP 180806145142

2018080612 12E JOHN       004  03 300 08 SATL 020

T000 153N 1077W 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 000 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 060 NW QD

T012 160N 1086W 075 R064 020 NE QD 015 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 030 SE QD 020 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 070 SE QD 040 SW QD 070 NW QD

T024 170N 1096W 095 R064 025 NE QD 020 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 080 SE QD 060 SW QD 080 NW QD

T036 183N 1110W 110 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW QD 090 NW QD

T048 198N 1127W 110 R064 035 NE QD 025 SE QD 020 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD

T072 229N 1166W 085 R050 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW QD 100 NW QD

T096 255N 1207W 055

T120 268N 1250W 035

AMP

SUBJ:  TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 004

1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 004

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   061200Z --- NEAR 15.3N 107.7W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 15.3N 107.7W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   070000Z --- 16.0N 108.6W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   071200Z --- 17.0N 109.6W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   080000Z --- 18.3N 111.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   081200Z --- 19.8N 112.7W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   091200Z --- 22.9N 116.6W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   101200Z --- 25.5N 120.7W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   111200Z --- 26.8N 125.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

REMARKS:

061600Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 108.0W.

TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1163 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 062200Z, 070400Z, 071000Z AND 071600Z.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

1218072900 100N 970W  15

1218072906 100N 970W  15

1218072912 100N 970W  15

1218072918 100N 970W  15

1218073000 100N 970W  15

1218073006 100N 970W  15

1218073012 100N 970W  15

1218073018 100N 970W  15

1218073100 100N 970W  15

1218073106 100N 970W  15

1218073112 100N 970W  15

1218073118 100N 970W  15

1218080100 100N 970W  15

1218080106 100N 970W  15

1218080112 100N 970W  15

1218080118 100N 970W  15

1218080200 100N 970W  15

1218080206 100N 970W  15

1218080212 100N 970W  15

1218080218 100N 970W  15

1218080300 100N 970W  15

1218080306 100N 970W  15

1218080312 106N 982W  25

1218080318 110N 990W  25

1218080400 114N 998W  25

1218080406 119N1006W  25

1218080412 128N1023W  25

1218080418 128N1032W  25

1218080500 129N1040W  25

1218080506 132N1046W  25

1218080512 137N1050W  30

1218080518 143N1055W  30

1218080600 146N1062W  35

1218080606 149N1070W  45

1218080612 153N1077W  55

1218080612 153N1077W  55

NNNN



2018-08-07 07:31

WTPN33 PHNC 061000

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 003

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   060600Z --- NEAR 14.9N 107.0W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 08 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 107.0W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   061800Z --- 15.6N 108.1W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   070600Z --- 16.3N 109.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   071800Z --- 17.5N 110.2W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   080600Z --- 18.8N 111.7W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   090600Z --- 21.8N 115.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   100600Z --- 24.5N 119.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   110600Z --- 26.5N 124.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

REMARKS:

061000Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 107.4W.

TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1202 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08

KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.

MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT

WARNINGS AT 061600Z, 062200Z, 070400Z AND 071000Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PHNC)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (ILEANA) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PHNC)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.

//

NNNN



2018-08-07 07:31

WTNT82 EGRR 070404



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.08.2018



             HURRICANE HECTOR     ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 144.3W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 07.08.2018    0  15.5N 144.3W      976            63

    1200UTC 07.08.2018   12  15.6N 147.0W      981            56

    0000UTC 08.08.2018   24  15.9N 149.8W      982            57

    1200UTC 08.08.2018   36  16.0N 152.6W      980            61

    0000UTC 09.08.2018   48  15.9N 155.8W      982            56

    1200UTC 09.08.2018   60  16.0N 158.9W      986            53

    0000UTC 10.08.2018   72  16.1N 162.4W      986            55

    1200UTC 10.08.2018   84  16.2N 166.0W      985            53

    0000UTC 11.08.2018   96  16.2N 169.1W      987            50

    1200UTC 11.08.2018  108  16.2N 171.4W      989            52

    0000UTC 12.08.2018  120  16.7N 173.0W      991            59

    1200UTC 12.08.2018  132  17.8N 174.9W      998            47

    0000UTC 13.08.2018  144  19.4N 177.2W     1000            43



        TROPICAL STORM ILEANA     ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 104.9W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 07.08.2018    0  18.4N 104.9W      986            67

    1200UTC 07.08.2018   12  21.6N 109.4W      997            75

    0000UTC 08.08.2018   24              CEASED TRACKING



             HURRICANE JOHN       ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 108.8W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 07.08.2018    0  16.4N 108.8W      979            56

    1200UTC 07.08.2018   12  17.1N 109.9W      967            75

    0000UTC 08.08.2018   24  18.2N 111.1W      959            74

    1200UTC 08.08.2018   36  19.5N 112.5W      956            72

    0000UTC 09.08.2018   48  21.3N 114.4W      949            73

    1200UTC 09.08.2018   60  22.6N 116.5W      954            74

    0000UTC 10.08.2018   72  23.8N 118.6W      963            61

    1200UTC 10.08.2018   84  24.8N 120.1W      980            50

    0000UTC 11.08.2018   96  25.9N 121.6W      990            39

    1200UTC 11.08.2018  108  26.3N 123.0W      997            31

    0000UTC 12.08.2018  120  26.5N 123.8W     1001            28

    1200UTC 12.08.2018  132  26.8N 124.2W     1004            25

    0000UTC 13.08.2018  144  27.2N 123.8W     1007            23



 TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 15.3N 123.7W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 07.08.2018    0  15.3N 123.7W     1005            26

    1200UTC 07.08.2018   12  15.3N 125.0W     1006            26

    0000UTC 08.08.2018   24  15.6N 126.0W     1004            22

    1200UTC 08.08.2018   36  15.0N 127.7W     1004            21

    0000UTC 09.08.2018   48  15.9N 128.7W     1004            20

    1200UTC 09.08.2018   60  16.3N 129.6W     1005            22

    0000UTC 10.08.2018   72  17.0N 129.8W     1006            24

    1200UTC 10.08.2018   84  18.0N 129.4W     1007            22

    0000UTC 11.08.2018   96  19.4N 128.6W     1009            19

    1200UTC 11.08.2018  108              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  18 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 :  9.8N 157.0W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 08.08.2018   24  10.0N 157.8W     1005            22

    1200UTC 08.08.2018   36   9.8N 158.4W     1004            23

    0000UTC 09.08.2018   48  10.0N 158.4W     1003            29

    1200UTC 09.08.2018   60  11.3N 157.7W     1000            52

    0000UTC 10.08.2018   72  14.2N 158.3W      995            56

    1200UTC 10.08.2018   84  16.6N 161.5W      998            53

    0000UTC 11.08.2018   96  18.9N 165.5W     1002            50

    1200UTC 11.08.2018  108  20.4N 170.6W     1003            52

    0000UTC 12.08.2018  120              CEASED TRACKING





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 070404



2018-08-07 07:31

WTNT82 EGRR 061605



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 06.08.2018



             HURRICANE HECTOR     ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 141.2W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 06.08.2018    0  15.0N 141.2W      949            79

    0000UTC 07.08.2018   12  15.8N 144.2W      967            69

    1200UTC 07.08.2018   24  16.2N 147.2W      980            61

    0000UTC 08.08.2018   36  16.4N 150.5W      979            60

    1200UTC 08.08.2018   48  16.2N 153.5W      981            59

    0000UTC 09.08.2018   60  16.2N 156.8W      977            66

    1200UTC 09.08.2018   72  16.1N 160.3W      980            58

    0000UTC 10.08.2018   84  16.0N 163.6W      980            62

    1200UTC 10.08.2018   96  15.9N 166.9W      987            57

    0000UTC 11.08.2018  108  15.9N 169.7W      989            54

    1200UTC 11.08.2018  120  16.2N 171.8W      989            53

    0000UTC 12.08.2018  132  17.0N 173.6W      990            62

    1200UTC 12.08.2018  144  17.9N 175.5W      994            56



        TROPICAL STORM ILEANA     ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 101.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 06.08.2018    0  15.6N 101.7W      985            65

    0000UTC 07.08.2018   12  18.1N 105.0W      980            74

    1200UTC 07.08.2018   24  20.8N 109.3W      994            69

    0000UTC 08.08.2018   36  22.7N 113.3W      999            48

    1200UTC 08.08.2018   48  23.5N 116.9W     1003            45

    0000UTC 09.08.2018   60  24.0N 120.5W     1004            30

    1200UTC 09.08.2018   72              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM JOHN       ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 107.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 06.08.2018    0  15.2N 107.6W      990            47

    0000UTC 07.08.2018   12  15.6N 108.9W      982            73

    1200UTC 07.08.2018   24  16.4N 109.7W      978            69

    0000UTC 08.08.2018   36  17.7N 110.8W      979            67

    1200UTC 08.08.2018   48  19.4N 112.3W      980            62

    0000UTC 09.08.2018   60  21.5N 114.4W      973            62

    1200UTC 09.08.2018   72  23.4N 117.3W      969            64

    0000UTC 10.08.2018   84  25.1N 119.7W      982            52

    1200UTC 10.08.2018   96  26.3N 121.5W      995            40

    0000UTC 11.08.2018  108  27.8N 123.1W     1002            28

    1200UTC 11.08.2018  120  28.0N 125.0W     1005            26

    0000UTC 12.08.2018  132  27.9N 126.6W     1007            26

    1200UTC 12.08.2018  144  27.7N 128.0W     1009            23



 TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.0N  49.5W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 06.08.2018    0  32.0N  49.5W     1011            28

    0000UTC 07.08.2018   12  33.9N  48.5W     1012            28

    1200UTC 07.08.2018   24  37.2N  47.6W     1010            29

    0000UTC 08.08.2018   36  40.0N  48.3W     1009            26

    1200UTC 08.08.2018   48  41.6N  48.0W     1008            24

    0000UTC 09.08.2018   60  43.1N  46.0W     1010            25

    1200UTC 09.08.2018   72              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  24 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 :  9.4N 154.7W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    1200UTC 07.08.2018   24   9.4N 154.7W     1006            22

    0000UTC 08.08.2018   36   9.7N 155.4W     1005            22

    1200UTC 08.08.2018   48  10.0N 155.6W     1004            25

    0000UTC 09.08.2018   60  11.3N 155.0W     1000            56

    1200UTC 09.08.2018   72  13.6N 155.4W     1000            58

    0000UTC 10.08.2018   84  15.8N 157.9W      999            46

    1200UTC 10.08.2018   96  17.5N 161.8W     1000            57

    0000UTC 11.08.2018  108  19.2N 166.6W     1004            54

    1200UTC 11.08.2018  120              CEASED TRACKING





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 061604



2018-08-07 07:31

WTNT80 EGRR 061604



 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



 AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 06.08.2018



             HURRICANE HECTOR     ANALYSED POSITION : 15.0N 141.2W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 06.08.2018  15.0N 141.2W   INTENSE

 00UTC 07.08.2018  15.8N 144.2W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 07.08.2018  16.2N 147.2W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 08.08.2018  16.4N 150.5W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.08.2018  16.2N 153.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.08.2018  16.2N 156.8W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 09.08.2018  16.1N 160.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 10.08.2018  16.0N 163.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.08.2018  15.9N 166.9W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 11.08.2018  15.9N 169.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.08.2018  16.2N 171.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.08.2018  17.0N 173.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.08.2018  17.9N 175.5W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



        TROPICAL STORM ILEANA     ANALYSED POSITION : 15.6N 101.7W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 06.08.2018  15.6N 101.7W   MODERATE

 00UTC 07.08.2018  18.1N 105.0W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 07.08.2018  20.8N 109.3W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 08.08.2018  22.7N 113.3W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 08.08.2018  23.5N 116.9W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.08.2018  24.0N 120.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.08.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



        TROPICAL STORM JOHN       ANALYSED POSITION : 15.2N 107.6W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 06.08.2018  15.2N 107.6W   MODERATE

 00UTC 07.08.2018  15.6N 108.9W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 07.08.2018  16.4N 109.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 08.08.2018  17.7N 110.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.08.2018  19.4N 112.3W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.08.2018  21.5N 114.4W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 09.08.2018  23.4N 117.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 10.08.2018  25.1N 119.7W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 12UTC 10.08.2018  26.3N 121.5W   MODERATE    WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 11.08.2018  27.8N 123.1W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.08.2018  28.0N 125.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.08.2018  27.9N 126.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.08.2018  27.7N 128.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE



    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 32.0N  49.5W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 06.08.2018  32.0N  49.5W     WEAK

 00UTC 07.08.2018  33.9N  48.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 07.08.2018  37.2N  47.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 08.08.2018  40.0N  48.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.08.2018  41.6N  48.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.08.2018  43.1N  46.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.08.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  24 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 :  9.4N 154.7W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 12UTC 07.08.2018   9.4N 154.7W     WEAK

 00UTC 08.08.2018   9.7N 155.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.08.2018  10.0N 155.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.08.2018  11.3N 155.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.08.2018  13.6N 155.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 10.08.2018  15.8N 157.9W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.08.2018  17.5N 161.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.08.2018  19.2N 166.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.08.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 061604



2018-08-07 07:31

WTNT80 EGRR 070404



 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



 AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.08.2018



             HURRICANE HECTOR     ANALYSED POSITION : 15.5N 144.3W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 07.08.2018  15.5N 144.3W    STRONG

 12UTC 07.08.2018  15.6N 147.0W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 08.08.2018  15.9N 149.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.08.2018  16.0N 152.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.08.2018  15.9N 155.8W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.08.2018  16.0N 158.9W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 10.08.2018  16.1N 162.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.08.2018  16.2N 166.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.08.2018  16.2N 169.1W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.08.2018  16.2N 171.4W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.08.2018  16.7N 173.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.08.2018  17.8N 174.9W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 13.08.2018  19.4N 177.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE



        TROPICAL STORM ILEANA     ANALYSED POSITION : 18.4N 104.9W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 07.08.2018  18.4N 104.9W   MODERATE

 12UTC 07.08.2018  21.6N 109.4W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 08.08.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



             HURRICANE JOHN       ANALYSED POSITION : 16.4N 108.8W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 07.08.2018  16.4N 108.8W    STRONG

 12UTC 07.08.2018  17.1N 109.9W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 08.08.2018  18.2N 111.1W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 08.08.2018  19.5N 112.5W   INTENSE       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.08.2018  21.3N 114.4W   INTENSE   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 09.08.2018  22.6N 116.5W   INTENSE    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 10.08.2018  23.8N 118.6W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 10.08.2018  24.8N 120.1W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 11.08.2018  25.9N 121.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.08.2018  26.3N 123.0W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.08.2018  26.5N 123.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 12.08.2018  26.8N 124.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 13.08.2018  27.2N 123.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE



    TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 15.3N 123.7W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 07.08.2018  15.3N 123.7W     WEAK

 12UTC 07.08.2018  15.3N 125.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 08.08.2018  15.6N 126.0W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.08.2018  15.0N 127.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.08.2018  15.9N 128.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.08.2018  16.3N 129.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 10.08.2018  17.0N 129.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.08.2018  18.0N 129.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.08.2018  19.4N 128.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.08.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  18 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 :  9.8N 157.0W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 08.08.2018  10.0N 157.8W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.08.2018   9.8N 158.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.08.2018  10.0N 158.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.08.2018  11.3N 157.7W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 10.08.2018  14.2N 158.3W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 10.08.2018  16.6N 161.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.08.2018  18.9N 165.5W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.08.2018  20.4N 170.6W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.08.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 070404



2018-08-07 07:16

WTPZ42 KNHC 060859

TCDEP2



Tropical Storm John Discussion Number   3

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

300 AM MDT Mon Aug 06 2018



The convective pattern of John has become significantly better

organized during the past several hours, with a large central dense

overcast forming and cloud top temperatures to -85C.  A 0706Z GPM

microwave pass shows the rapid development of an inner core since

the previous pass 6 hours ago, along with impressive curved banding

features.  A blend of the satellite intensity estimates gave 45 kt

at 0600 UTC, but given the increase in organization since that time,

the advisory wind speed is set to 50 kt.



All systems are go for the rapid intensification of John in an

environment of very warm SSTs, high mid-level moisture and low wind

shear.  With the inner core formation, John will likely strengthen

quickly until it reaches cooler waters after 48 hours. The various

rapid intensification aids are about as high as they get, roughly 60

to 90 percent depending on the threshold, increasing the confidence

in the forecast.   Thus the new NHC wind speed prediction is raised

from the previous one, and calls for rapid intensification through

48 hours.  It should be noted that even though the NHC forecast is

rather bullish, the corrected consensus aids, the SHIPS and LGEM

models all show an even higher peak intensity.



The GPM pass helped set the initial motion at 300/7 kt, somewhat to

the left of the previous estimate.  Model guidance remains in fairly

good agreement that John should move northwestward soon at an

increasing forward speed toward a weakness in the subtropical ridge.

While some interaction with TS Ileana is anticipated, the much

larger John should dominate, leading to perhaps a temporary

slowdown.  The latest NHC forecast is shifted to the west in the

first couple of days, following the trend of the model guidance, but

ends up very close to the previous forecast at day 5.  The UKMET is

significantly farther west, perhaps due to it having the two

tropical cyclones analyzed with nearly the same size, and little

weight is placed on that model for the official forecast.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/0900Z 15.1N 107.3W   50 KT  60 MPH

 12H  06/1800Z 15.6N 108.1W   65 KT  75 MPH

 24H  07/0600Z 16.3N 109.0W   80 KT  90 MPH

 36H  07/1800Z 17.5N 110.2W   95 KT 110 MPH

 48H  08/0600Z 18.8N 111.7W  110 KT 125 MPH

 72H  09/0600Z 21.8N 115.3W   95 KT 110 MPH

 96H  10/0600Z 24.5N 119.5W   65 KT  75 MPH

120H  11/0600Z 26.5N 124.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL



$$

Forecaster Blake



2018-08-07 07:16

WTPZ42 KNHC 060859 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

300 AM MDT MON AUG 06 2018



THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN OF JOHN HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY BETTER

ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH A LARGE CENTRAL DENSE

OVERCAST FORMING AND CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES TO -85C.  A 0706Z GPM

MICROWAVE PASS SHOWS THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF AN INNER CORE SINCE

THE PREVIOUS PASS 6 HOURS AGO, ALONG WITH IMPRESSIVE CURVED BANDING

FEATURES.  A BLEND OF THE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES GAVE 45 KT

AT 0600 UTC, BUT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME,

THE ADVISORY WIND SPEED IS SET TO 50 KT.



ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO FOR THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION OF JOHN IN AN

ENVIRONMENT OF VERY WARM SSTS, HIGH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW WIND

SHEAR.  WITH THE INNER CORE FORMATION, JOHN WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN

QUICKLY UNTIL IT REACHES COOLER WATERS AFTER 48 HOURS. THE VARIOUS

RAPID INTENSIFICATION AIDS ARE ABOUT AS HIGH AS THEY GET, ROUGHLY 60

TO 90 PERCENT DEPENDING ON THE THRESHOLD, INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE

IN THE FORECAST.   THUS THE NEW NHC WIND SPEED PREDICTION IS RAISED

FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE, AND CALLS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION THROUGH

48 HOURS.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT EVEN THOUGH THE NHC FORECAST IS

RATHER BULLISH, THE CORRECTED CONSENSUS AIDS, THE SHIPS AND LGEM

MODELS ALL SHOW AN EVEN HIGHER PEAK INTENSITY.



THE GPM PASS HELPED SET THE INITIAL MOTION AT 300/7 KT, SOMEWHAT TO

THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.  MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIRLY

GOOD AGREEMENT THAT JOHN SHOULD MOVE NORTHWESTWARD SOON AT AN

INCREASING FORWARD SPEED TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.



2018-08-07 07:16

WTPZ32 KNHC 060858

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

300 AM MDT MON AUG 06 2018



...JOHN RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...





SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...15.1N 107.3W

ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

ABOUT 565 MI...910 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 107.3 WEST. JOHN IS

MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H) AND A FASTER

NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH (95 KM/H)

WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  JOHN IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER

TODAY AND A MAJOR HURRICANE ON TUESDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES (110 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB (29.50 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE

COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  THESE

SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT

CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER

OFFICE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 900 AM MDT.



....

FORECASTER BLAKE



2018-08-07 07:16

WTPZ22 KNHC 060857 RRA

TCMEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

0900 UTC MON AUG 06 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.3W AT 06/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.

34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.3W AT 06/0900Z

AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 107.0W



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.6N 108.1W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 109.0W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.5N 110.2W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.8N 111.7W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.8N 115.3W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM



2018-08-07 07:16

WTPZ22 KNHC 060857

TCMEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

0900 UTC MON AUG 06 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.3W AT 06/0900Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.

34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 107.3W AT 06/0900Z

AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 107.0W



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 15.6N 108.1W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.3N 109.0W

MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.5N 110.2W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT...110NE  90SE  70SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.8N 111.7W

MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.

64 KT... 35NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 21.8N 115.3W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 24.5N 119.5W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 26.5N 124.0W...POST-TROPICAL

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 107.3W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z



$$

FORECASTER BLAKE



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 060250 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

900 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2018



CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E HAS

CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, ALTHOUGH RECENT MICROWAVE

SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ELONGATED FROM

NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND

SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 35 KT, AND BASED ON THESE THE DEPRESSION IS

UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM JOHN.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/7.  A WESTWARD-MOVING MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MEXICO HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER

THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT THAT JOHN WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AT AN INCREASING

FORWARD SPEED TOWARD THIS WEAKNESS.  A COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT

JOHN MAY INTERACT WITH TROPICAL STORM ILEANA TO THE EAST.  HOWEVER,

JOHN IS MUCH LARGER THAN ILEANA, AND THE MOST LIKELY IMPACT OF THIS

INTERACTION IS THAT JOHN COULD MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY

FORECAST.  THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE

PREVIOUS TRACK AFTER 48 H, BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS

FORECAST.  THE NEW TRACK ALSO LIES JUST SOUTH OF THE CLUSTER OF

CONSENSUS MODELS.



JOHN IS EXPECTED TO BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF VERY WARM SSTS, LOW

SHEAR, AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE THROUGH ABOUT 60 H.  THIS ENVIRONMENT

IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION (RI), AS INDICATED BY

HIGH PROBABILITIES IN THE SHIPS RI INDEX, AND IT IS LIKELY THAT RI

WILL BEGIN AS SOON AS THE INNER CORE OF THE STORM BECOMES BETTER

ORGANIZED.  THE NHC FORECAST CALLS FOR THE STORM TO BECOME A



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 060250

TCDEP2



Tropical Storm John Discussion Number   2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

900 PM MDT Sun Aug 05 2018



Convection associated with Tropical Depression Twelve-E has

continued to become better organized, although recent microwave

satellite data suggest the low-level center is elongated from

northwest to southeast.  Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB and

SAB have increased to 35 kt, and based on these the depression is

upgraded to Tropical Storm John.



The initial motion is 315/7.  A westward-moving mid- to upper-level

trough over northern Mexico has weakened the subtropical ridge over

the northeastern Pacific, and the large-scale models are in good

agreement that John will move northwestward at an increasing

forward speed toward this weakness.  A complicating factor is that

John may interact with Tropical Storm Ileana to the east.  However,

John is much larger than Ileana, and the most likely impact of this

interaction is that John could move a little slower than currently

forecast.  The new forecast track is a little to the north of the

previous track after 48 h, but is otherwise similar to the previous

forecast.  The new track also lies just south of the cluster of

consensus models.



John is expected to be in an environment of very warm SSTs, low

shear, and a moist atmosphere through about 60 h.  This environment

is quite favorable for rapid intensification (RI), as indicated by

high probabilities in the SHIPS RI index, and it is likely that RI

will begin as soon as the inner core of the storm becomes better

organized.  The NHC forecast calls for the storm to become a

hurricane in 24-36 h and to reach a peak intensity of 95 kt in about

three days.  After that, the forecast track takes John over rapidly

cooling sea surface temperatures, which should cause at least a

steady weakening.  The intensity forecast is in best agreement with

the intensity consensus.  It should be noted, however, that the

SHIPS and LGEM models both show more intensification than the

official forecast and make John a major hurricane in about three

days.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  06/0300Z 14.9N 106.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

 12H  06/1200Z 15.6N 107.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 24H  07/0000Z 16.3N 107.9W   60 KT  70 MPH

 36H  07/1200Z 17.3N 108.9W   75 KT  85 MPH

 48H  08/0000Z 18.5N 110.3W   90 KT 105 MPH

 72H  09/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W   95 KT 110 MPH

 96H  10/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

120H  11/0000Z 26.0N 122.0W   40 KT  45 MPH



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 052039 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

400 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018



THE LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTH OF THE

SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY AND THE

ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION HAS ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO CLASSIFY THE

SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION, THE TWELFTH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THE

2018 EASTERN PACIFIC HURRICANE SEASON.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS

SET AT 30 KT, WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT.  THE

TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE DEPRESSION IS COMPLICATED DUE

TO THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA TO ITS

EAST-SOUTHEAST.  SOMEWHAT SURPRISINGLY, HOWEVER, THE TRACK GUIDANCE

IS IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A GENERAL NORTHWESTWARD MOTION

AROUND THE WESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN

MEXICO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  SINCE THE DEPRESSION IS LARGER

THAN ILEANA, MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT ILEANA WILL MOVE

AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE'S

CIRCULATION AND WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE.  THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS

NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE BETWEEN THE SLOWER ECMWF

SOLUTION, AND THE FASTER GFS, HWRF, AND HMON TRACKS.



THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY OVER VERY WARM SSTS, WITHIN LOW SHEAR,

AND A MOIST ATMOSPHERE.  THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION

WILL STEADILY STRENGTHEN AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS QUITE

AGGRESSIVE IN INTENSIFYING THE SYSTEM.  THE NHC FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY

MORE CONSERVATIVE DURING THE FIRST 36 H SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ42 KNHC 052039

TCDEP2



Tropical Depression Twelve-E Discussion Number   1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

400 PM CDT Sun Aug 05 2018



The low pressure area located a few hundred miles south of the

southwest coast of Mexico has become better defined today and the

associated deep convection has enough organization to classify the

system as a tropical depression, the twelfth tropical cyclone of the

2018 eastern Pacific hurricane season.  The initial intensity is

set at 30 kt, which is in agreement with Dvorak satellite intensity

estimates from both TAFB and SAB.



The initial motion estimate is northwestward at about 6 kt.  The

track and intensity forecast for the depression is complicated due

to the close proximity of Tropical Storm Ileana to its

east-southeast.  Somewhat surprisingly, however, the track guidance

is in relatively good agreement on a general northwestward motion

around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over northern

Mexico during the next several days.  Since the depression is larger

than Ileana, most of the global models suggest that Ileana will move

around the northeastern portion of the new tropical cyclone's

circulation and weaken and dissipate.  The NHC track forecast is

near the middle of the guidance envelope between the slower ECMWF

solution, and the faster GFS, HWRF, and HMON tracks.



The depression is currently over very warm SSTs, within low shear,

and a moist atmosphere.  These factors suggest that the depression

will steadily strengthen and the intensity guidance is quite

aggressive in intensifying the system.  The NHC forecast is slightly

more conservative during the first 36 h since the system is still

quite broad and lacks an inner core.  Regardless, the NHC forecast

brings the system to hurricane strength within 36 h, and shows a

peak intensity of 90 kt in 3 days, which is in agreement with the

HFIP corrected consensus model.  Cool waters and less favorable

thermodynamic conditions should lead to steady to rapid weakening

late in the forecast period.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  05/2100Z 14.6N 105.8W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  06/0600Z 15.2N 106.5W   40 KT  45 MPH

 24H  06/1800Z 16.0N 107.4W   50 KT  60 MPH

 36H  07/0600Z 16.9N 108.3W   65 KT  75 MPH

 48H  07/1800Z 17.9N 109.6W   75 KT  85 MPH

 72H  08/1800Z 20.5N 112.8W   90 KT 105 MPH

 96H  09/1800Z 23.2N 117.0W   65 KT  75 MPH

120H  10/1800Z 25.5N 121.5W   45 KT  50 MPH



$$

Forecaster Brown



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 060250 RRA

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

TROPICAL STORM JOHN ADVISORY NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

900 PM MDT SUN AUG 05 2018



...TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM JOHN...





SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.9N 106.2W

ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS

LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH, LONGITUDE 106.2 WEST.  JOHN IS

MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH (13 KM/H), AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT

FEW DAYS.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED NEAR 40 MPH (65 KM/H) WITH

HIGHER GUSTS.  STEADY TO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE

NEXT FEW DAYS, AND JOHN IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE

BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.



TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES (75 KM)

FROM THE CENTER.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB (29.65 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY JOHN ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING THE

COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THESE

SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT

CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 060250

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

Tropical Storm John Advisory Number   2

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP122018

900 PM MDT Sun Aug 05 2018



...TROPICAL DEPRESSION INTENSIFIES INTO TROPICAL STORM JOHN...





SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.9N 106.2W

ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was

located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 106.2 West.  John is

moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h), and this general

motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next

few days.



Maximum sustained winds have increased near 40 mph (65 km/h) with

higher gusts.  Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the

next few days, and John is expected to strengthen into a hurricane

by Monday night or Tuesday.



Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)

from the center.



The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  Swells generated by John are expected to begin affecting the

coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two.  These

swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current

conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather

office.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.



$$

Forecaster Beven



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ32 KNHC 052038

TCPEP2



BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E ADVISORY NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

400 PM CDT SUN AUG 05 2018



...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF

MEXICO...





SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...14.6N 105.8W

ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES





WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.





DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

AT 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E

WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.6 NORTH, LONGITUDE 105.8 WEST. THE

DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH (11 KM/H), AND

THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED

OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH (55 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, AND THE

DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT, AND

STRENGTHEN INTO HURRICANE BY MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY.



THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB (29.71 INCHES).





HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

SURF:  SWELLS GENERATED BY THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN

AFFECTING THE COAST OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR

TWO.  THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP

CURRENT CONDITIONS.  PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER

OFFICE.





NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1000 PM CDT.



....

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 060249 RRA

TCMEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 106.2W AT 06/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.

34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 106.2W AT 06/0300Z

AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 106.0W



FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.6N 107.0W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.3N 107.9W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.

34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.3N 108.9W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.5N 110.3W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 060249

TCMEP2



TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

0300 UTC MON AUG 06 2018



THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.



TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 106.2W AT 06/0300Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   7 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.

34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

12 FT SEAS.. 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 106.2W AT 06/0300Z

AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 106.0W



FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 15.6N 107.0W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 16.3N 107.9W

MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.

50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.

34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 17.3N 108.9W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 18.5N 110.3W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

64 KT... 30NE  25SE  20SW  25NW.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.



FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 21.5N 113.5W

MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 24.0N 118.0W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 26.0N 122.0W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 106.2W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z



$$

FORECASTER BEVEN



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 052038 RRA

TCMEP2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

2100 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018



...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF

MEXICO...



TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.8W AT 05/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.8W AT 05/2100Z

AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 105.5W



FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.2N 106.5W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.0N 107.4W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.9N 108.3W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.9N 109.6W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.5N 112.8W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.2N 117.0W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPZ22 KNHC 052038

TCMEP2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP122018

2100 UTC SUN AUG 05 2018



...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF

MEXICO...



TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.8W AT 05/2100Z

POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM



PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT   6 KT



ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.

WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL

MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.



REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 105.8W AT 05/2100Z

AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 105.5W



FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 15.2N 106.5W

MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.

34 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.



FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 16.0N 107.4W

MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

50 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.

34 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 16.9N 108.3W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.

50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.

34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.



FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 17.9N 109.6W

MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.

64 KT... 25NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.

50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.

34 KT... 90NE  90SE  50SW  90NW.



FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 20.5N 112.8W

MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.

34 KT...110NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.



EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM

ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY



OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 23.2N 117.0W

MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.



OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 25.5N 121.5W

MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.



REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.6N 105.8W



NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z



$$

FORECASTER BROWN



2018-08-06 06:31

WTPN33 PHNC 060400

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//

RMKS/

1. TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN) WARNING NR 002

   UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12E

   03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN EASTPAC

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

   WARNING POSITION:

   060000Z --- NEAR 14.7N 106.0W

     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM

     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE

   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 106.0W

    ---

   FORECASTS:

   12 HRS, VALID AT:

   061200Z --- 15.6N 107.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS

    ---

   24 HRS, VALID AT:

   070000Z --- 16.3N 107.9W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 07 KTS

    ---

   36 HRS, VALID AT:

   071200Z --- 17.3N 108.9W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 09 KTS

    ---

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

   48 HRS, VALID AT:

   080000Z --- 18.5N 110.3W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 11 KTS

    ---

   72 HRS, VALID AT:

   090000Z --- 21.5N 113.5W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 12 KTS

    ---

   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

    ---

   96 HRS, VALID AT:

   100000Z --- 24.0N 118.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS

    ---

   120 HRS, VALID AT:

   110000Z --- 26.0N 122.0W

   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

    ---

REMARKS:

060400Z POSITION NEAR 15.0N 106.3W.

TROPICAL STORM 12E (JOHN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1238 NM SOUTH-

SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS

OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z

IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 061000Z, 061600Z, 062200Z AND 070400Z.

REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 10E (HECTOR) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW)

FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11E (ILEANA)

WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//

NNNN



2018-08-06 06:31

WTNT82 EGRR 060422



  MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 06.08.2018



             HURRICANE HECTOR     ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 138.4W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 06.08.2018    0  14.5N 138.4W      934            91

    1200UTC 06.08.2018   12  14.8N 141.1W      968            63

    0000UTC 07.08.2018   24  15.3N 144.0W      973            65

    1200UTC 07.08.2018   36  15.7N 147.1W      981            58

    0000UTC 08.08.2018   48  16.0N 150.2W      978            58

    1200UTC 08.08.2018   60  16.0N 153.3W      979            57

    0000UTC 09.08.2018   72  16.0N 156.7W      978            65

    1200UTC 09.08.2018   84  16.1N 160.1W      979            57

    0000UTC 10.08.2018   96  16.3N 163.8W      980            59

    1200UTC 10.08.2018  108  16.4N 167.1W      988            55

    0000UTC 11.08.2018  120  16.9N 170.0W      988            59

    1200UTC 11.08.2018  132  17.5N 172.6W      991            59

    0000UTC 12.08.2018  144  18.1N 175.3W      997            48



        TROPICAL STORM ILEANA     ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N  99.4W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 06.08.2018    0  14.1N  99.4W      997            45

    1200UTC 06.08.2018   12  14.9N 102.0W      984            63

    0000UTC 07.08.2018   24  16.5N 104.3W      977            73

    1200UTC 07.08.2018   36  19.3N 107.6W      988            65

    0000UTC 08.08.2018   48  21.5N 111.1W      995            68

    1200UTC 08.08.2018   60  23.7N 113.5W      997            45

    0000UTC 09.08.2018   72  26.4N 116.4W     1007            28

    1200UTC 09.08.2018   84              CEASED TRACKING



        TROPICAL STORM 12E        ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 106.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 06.08.2018    0  14.5N 106.5W     1000            38

    1200UTC 06.08.2018   12  15.3N 108.0W      989            46

    0000UTC 07.08.2018   24  15.5N 109.7W      982            56

    1200UTC 07.08.2018   36  15.6N 111.0W      977            65

    0000UTC 08.08.2018   48  16.0N 112.1W      973            71

    1200UTC 08.08.2018   60  16.7N 113.1W      970            70

    0000UTC 09.08.2018   72  18.2N 114.3W      970            71

    1200UTC 09.08.2018   84  19.8N 116.0W      963            72

    0000UTC 10.08.2018   96  21.9N 118.2W      964            65

    1200UTC 10.08.2018  108  23.7N 120.2W      977            56

    0000UTC 11.08.2018  120  25.5N 122.5W      988            48

    1200UTC 11.08.2018  132  26.6N 124.9W      999            37

    0000UTC 12.08.2018  144  27.0N 127.2W     1004            29



 TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 31.4N  49.7W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 06.08.2018    0  31.4N  49.7W     1011            26

    1200UTC 06.08.2018   12  31.8N  49.3W     1012            28

    0000UTC 07.08.2018   24              CEASED TRACKING



       NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS

              FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 :  9.2N 155.3W



                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND

      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)

      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------

    0000UTC 08.08.2018   48   9.2N 155.3W     1006            19

    1200UTC 08.08.2018   60   9.5N 155.7W     1006            21

    0000UTC 09.08.2018   72  10.4N 155.3W     1004            40

    1200UTC 09.08.2018   84  12.3N 155.2W     1005            30

    0000UTC 10.08.2018   96  14.2N 156.4W     1007            26

    1200UTC 10.08.2018  108  15.0N 158.5W     1008            25

    0000UTC 11.08.2018  120              CEASED TRACKING





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 060422



2018-08-06 06:31

WTNT80 EGRR 060422



 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



 AND ATLANTIC



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 06.08.2018



             HURRICANE HECTOR     ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 138.4W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP102018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 06.08.2018  14.5N 138.4W   INTENSE

 12UTC 06.08.2018  14.8N 141.1W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 07.08.2018  15.3N 144.0W    STRONG    WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 07.08.2018  15.7N 147.1W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 08.08.2018  16.0N 150.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.08.2018  16.0N 153.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.08.2018  16.0N 156.7W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.08.2018  16.1N 160.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 10.08.2018  16.3N 163.8W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.08.2018  16.4N 167.1W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 11.08.2018  16.9N 170.0W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 11.08.2018  17.5N 172.6W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 12.08.2018  18.1N 175.3W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



        TROPICAL STORM ILEANA     ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N  99.4W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP112018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 06.08.2018  14.1N  99.4W   MODERATE

 12UTC 06.08.2018  14.9N 102.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 07.08.2018  16.5N 104.3W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 07.08.2018  19.3N 107.6W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 08.08.2018  21.5N 111.1W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 08.08.2018  23.7N 113.5W   MODERATE      LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.08.2018  26.4N 116.4W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 09.08.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH



        TROPICAL STORM 12E        ANALYSED POSITION : 14.5N 106.5W



     ATCF IDENTIFIER : EP122018



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 06.08.2018  14.5N 106.5W   MODERATE

 12UTC 06.08.2018  15.3N 108.0W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 07.08.2018  15.5N 109.7W   MODERATE  INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 07.08.2018  15.6N 111.0W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 08.08.2018  16.0N 112.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 08.08.2018  16.7N 113.1W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.08.2018  18.2N 114.3W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.08.2018  19.8N 116.0W    STRONG   INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 10.08.2018  21.9N 118.2W    STRONG       LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.08.2018  23.7N 120.2W    STRONG     WEAKENING RAPIDLY

 00UTC 11.08.2018  25.5N 122.5W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 12UTC 11.08.2018  26.6N 124.9W   MODERATE   WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

 00UTC 12.08.2018  27.0N 127.2W     WEAK     WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



             NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER  48 HOURS

                   FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 :  9.2N 155.3W



  VERIFYING TIME     POSITION     STRENGTH        TENDENCY

  --------------     --------     --------        --------

 00UTC 08.08.2018   9.2N 155.3W     WEAK

 12UTC 08.08.2018   9.5N 155.7W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 09.08.2018  10.4N 155.3W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 09.08.2018  12.3N 155.2W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 10.08.2018  14.2N 156.4W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 12UTC 10.08.2018  15.0N 158.5W     WEAK        LITTLE CHANGE

 00UTC 11.08.2018        BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH





 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT.



 BULLETINS ARE NOW AVAILABLE WHICH PROVIDE EXPLICIT GUIDANCE

 ON CENTRAL PRESSURE AND MAXIMUM WIND SPEED.

 FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT TROPICAL_CYCLONES@METOFFICE.GOV.UK



 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 060422