Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for SHANSHAN-18
in Japan

Global Telecommunication Service

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Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME DEVELOPED LOW FORMER TS 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 41N 151E
MOVE ENE 30KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
30KT 300NM =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 100300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100300UTC 40.4N 148.7E FAIR
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110300UTC 41.0N 163.1E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.31 FOR TS 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 40.0N, 147.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
SSTS, LOW TCHP AND STRONG VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89
GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 100000
WARNING 100000.
WARNING VALID 110000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 992 HPA
AT 40.0N 147.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 21 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 41.5N 154.1E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 41.3N 162.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 100000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100000UTC 40.0N 147.2E FAIR
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 110000UTC 41.3N 162.0E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 092100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 092100UTC 39.9N 145.2E FAIR
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 102100UTC 41.7N 159.1E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.30 FOR TS 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TS SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 39.1N, 144.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS, LOW TCHP AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN
A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 091800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 28
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 091800UTC 38.8N 144.1E
MOVEMENT NE 17KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 101800UTC 42.3N 157.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 091800
WARNING 091800.
WARNING VALID 101800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM 990 HPA
AT 39.1N 144.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING EASTNORTHEAST 14 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 40.8N 149.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 41.5N 156.7E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 091800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091800UTC 39.1N 144.1E FAIR
MOVE ENE 14KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 101800UTC 41.5N 156.7E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 091500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) DOWNGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091500UTC 38.2N 143.2E GOOD
MOVE ENE 12KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 045KT
GUST 065KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 101500UTC 41.1N 154.9E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 091500
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180809131322
2018080912 17W SHANSHAN 028 02 060 08 SATL 060
T000 378N 1426E 045 R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD
T012 396N 1467E 040 R034 025 NE QD 130 SE QD 100 SW QD 000 NW QD
T024 410N 1535E 035 R034 010 NE QD 145 SE QD 155 SW QD 000 NW QD
AMP 000HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
012HR EXTRATROPICAL
024HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 028
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 37.8N 142.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.8N 142.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 39.6N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 41.0N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 38.2N 143.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164 NM
NORTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 22 FEET.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080806 338N1415E 75
1718080806 338N1415E 75
1718080806 338N1415E 75
1718080812 345N1413E 70
1718080812 345N1413E 70
1718080812 345N1413E 70
1718080818 353N1411E 70
1718080818 353N1411E 70
1718080818 353N1411E 70
1718080900 363N1410E 65
1718080900 363N1410E 65
1718080900 363N1410E 65
1718080906 374N1417E 55
1718080906 374N1417E 55
1718080912 378N1426E 45


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 091500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 028
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
091200Z --- NEAR 37.8N 142.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 060 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.8N 142.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 39.6N 146.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 41.0N 153.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
091500Z POSITION NEAR 38.2N 143.6E.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 164 NM
NORTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z
IS 22 FEET.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.29 FOR STS 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 37.9N, 142.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SEPARATION OF ACTIVE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CLUSTERS FROM THE CSC.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW
HAVE BECOME OBSCURE.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR
BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT24. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 091200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 27
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 091200UTC 37.7N 142.5E
MOVEMENT NE 9KT
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 101200UTC 41.6N 153.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 091200
WARNING 091200.
WARNING VALID 101200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 985 HPA
AT 37.9N 142.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 39.6N 146.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 41.0N 153.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 091200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 091200UTC 37.9N 142.5E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 101200UTC 41.0N 153.0E 80NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 090900
WARNING 090900.
WARNING VALID 100900.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 980 HPA
AT 37.6N 141.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 10
MILES ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 39.3N 145.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100900UTC AT 40.9N 151.1E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 090900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090900UTC 37.6N 141.9E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM SOUTHEAST 10NM NORTHWEST
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 100900UTC 40.9N 151.1E 80NM 70.
MOVE ENE 25KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 110600UTC 41.8N 167.1E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 090900
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180809073206
2018080906 17W SHANSHAN 027 02 025 12 SATL 060
T000 374N 1417E 055 R050 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 060 NW QD
T012 393N 1446E 045 R034 070 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW QD 030 NW QD
T024 410N 1499E 040 R034 040 NE QD 145 SE QD 140 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 422N 1576E 030
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 027
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 027
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 17W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 37.4N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.4N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 39.3N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 41.0N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 42.2N 157.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 37.9N 142.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080806 338N1415E 75
1718080806 338N1415E 75
1718080806 338N1415E 75
1718080812 345N1413E 70
1718080812 345N1413E 70
1718080812 345N1413E 70
1718080818 353N1411E 70
1718080818 353N1411E 70
1718080818 353N1411E 70
1718080900 363N1410E 65
1718080900 363N1410E 65
1718080900 363N1410E 65
1718080906 374N1417E 55
1718080906 374N1417E 55


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 027
DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 17W
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090600Z --- NEAR 37.4N 141.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 37.4N 141.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 39.3N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 22 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 41.0N 149.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 42.2N 157.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
090900Z POSITION NEAR 37.9N 142.4E.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NARITA AIRPORT, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.28 FOR STS 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
STS SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 37.3N, 141.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING
AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 090600
WARNING 090600.
WARNING VALID 100600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 980 HPA
AT 37.3N 141.4E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 10 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 38.8N 143.6E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 40.8N 149.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 41.8N 167.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 090600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090600UTC 37.3N 141.4E GOOD
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM EAST 10NM WEST
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 100600UTC 40.8N 149.4E 80NM 70.
MOVE ENE 24KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 110600UTC 41.8N 167.1E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 090300
WARNING 090300.
WARNING VALID 100300.
STORM WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON
980 HPA
AT 36.8N 141.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 10 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 38.5N 143.0E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100300UTC AT 40.4N 148.4E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 090300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) DOWNGRADED FROM TY
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090300UTC 36.8N 141.2E GOOD
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
50KT 40NM EAST 10NM WEST
30KT 240NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 100300UTC 40.4N 148.4E 80NM 70.
MOVE ENE 23KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 110000UTC 42.2N 163.3E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 090300
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180809013124
2018080900 17W SHANSHAN 026 02 355 10 SATL RADR SYNP 045
T000 363N 1410E 065 R064 030 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 110 SE QD 090 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 382N 1431E 055 R050 030 NE QD 045 SE QD 015 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 135 SE QD 085 SW QD 045 NW QD
T024 400N 1476E 045 R034 045 NE QD 175 SE QD 140 SW QD 020 NW QD
T036 418N 1542E 040 R034 040 NE QD 180 SE QD 210 SW QD 025 NW QD
AMP
012HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 026
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 026
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
090000Z --- NEAR 36.3N 141.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 36.3N 141.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 38.2N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 40.0N 147.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 41.8N 154.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
090300Z POSITION NEAR 36.8N 141.5E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 87 NM NORTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090900Z, 091500Z, 092100Z AND 100300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080806 338N1415E 75
1718080806 338N1415E 75
1718080806 338N1415E 75
1718080812 345N1413E 70
1718080812 345N1413E 70
1718080812 345N1413E 70
1718080818 353N1411E 70
1718080818 353N1411E 70
1718080818 353N1411E 70
1718080900 363N1410E 65
1718080900 363N1410E 65
1718080900 363N1410E 65
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.27 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 36.2N, 141.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF LOW
TCHP. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING AROUND THE CSC AND
FORMING A CURVED BAND. DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND
MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOW SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT48. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 090000
WARNING 090000.
WARNING VALID 100000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 975 HPA
AT 36.2N 141.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 20 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 38.0N 142.3E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 40.0N 146.9E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 42.2N 163.3E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 090000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 090000UTC 36.2N 141.1E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM EAST 20NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 100000UTC 40.0N 146.9E 80NM 70.
MOVE ENE 20KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 110000UTC 42.2N 163.3E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 082100
WARNING 082100.
WARNING VALID 092100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 975 HPA
AT 35.8N 141.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 37.8N 141.8E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 092100UTC AT 39.5N 145.3E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 082100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 082100UTC 35.8N 141.0E GOOD
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 092100UTC 39.5N 145.3E 80NM 70.
MOVE ENE 16KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 101800UTC 41.9N 158.2E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 082100
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180808193542
2018080818 17W SHANSHAN 025 02 350 08 SATL 040
T000 353N 1411E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 095 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 373N 1420E 060 R050 035 NE QD 055 SE QD 025 SW QD 005 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 135 SE QD 085 SW Q
D 045 NW QD
T024 392N 1451E 050 R050 000 NE QD 060 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 055 NE QD 170 SE QD 105 SW Q
D 035 NW QD
T036 409N 1509E 045 R034 055 NE QD 175 SE QD 165 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 427N 1587E 040 R034 030 NE QD 150 SE QD 230 SW QD 020 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 025
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 35.3N 141.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.3N 141.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 37.3N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 39.2N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 40.9N 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 42.7N 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 35.8N 141.3E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 69 NM EAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080806 338N1415E 75
1718080806 338N1415E 75
1718080806 338N1415E 75
1718080812 345N1413E 70
1718080812 345N1413E 70
1718080812 345N1413E 70
1718080818 353N1411E 70
1718080818 353N1411E 70
1718080818 353N1411E 70


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 025
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081800Z --- NEAR 35.3N 141.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 350 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 35.3N 141.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 37.3N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 39.2N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 40.9N 150.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 42.7N 158.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
082100Z POSITION NEAR 35.8N 141.3E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 69 NM EAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081800Z IS 25 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 090300Z, 090900Z, 091500Z AND 092100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL STORM 18W (YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.26 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 35.3N, 141.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR
IMAGERY. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
LOW TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 081800
WARNING 081800.
WARNING VALID 091800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 975 HPA
AT 35.3N 141.0E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 30 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 37.4N 141.5E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 39.1N 144.0E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 41.9N 158.2E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 081800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081800UTC 35.3N 141.0E GOOD
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM EAST 30NM WEST
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 091800UTC 39.1N 144.0E 80NM 70.
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 101800UTC 41.9N 158.2E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 081500
WARNING 081500.
WARNING VALID 091500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 34.8N 141.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 36.7N 141.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091500UTC AT 38.5N 143.2E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 081500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081500UTC 34.8N 141.2E GOOD
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 091500UTC 38.5N 143.2E 80NM 70.
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
45HF 101200UTC 41.4N 153.8E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 081500
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180808131348
2018080812 17W SHANSHAN 024 02 345 07 SATL RADR 030
T000 345N 1413E 070 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 110 SW QD 095 NW QD
T012 362N 1415E 065 R064 025 NE QD 030 SE QD 005 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 105 NE QD 125 SE QD 100 SW QD 055 NW QD
T024 383N 1435E 055 R050 015 NE QD 040 SE QD 015 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 130 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 030 NW QD
T036 401N 1480E 045 R034 030 NE QD 125 SE QD 085 SW QD 050 NW QD
T048 415N 1551E 035 R034 030 NE QD 130 SE QD 205 SW QD 030 NW QD
AMP
024HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
036HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
048HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 34.5N 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.5N 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 36.2N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 38.3N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 40.1N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 41.5N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 34.9N 141.3E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 92 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z,
090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080806 338N1415E 75
1718080806 338N1415E 75
1718080806 338N1415E 75
1718080812 345N1413E 70
1718080812 345N1413E 70
1718080812 345N1413E 70


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 024
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
081200Z --- NEAR 34.5N 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 34.5N 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 36.2N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 38.3N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 40.1N 148.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 075 DEG/ 28 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 41.5N 155.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
081500Z POSITION NEAR 34.9N 141.3E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 92 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z,
090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W
(YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.25 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 34.5N, 141.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON IN ANIMATED MSI AND RADAR IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, DRY
AIR AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS
INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH A CURVATURE
SUGGESTING THE CSC. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGHS UNTIL FT12. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, LOW TCHP, STRONG VWS AND DRY AIR. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT36 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 081200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 081200UTC 34.4N 141.0E
MOVEMENT NNW 7KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 091200UTC 38.3N 142.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 101200UTC 41.8N 159.4E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 34.5N 141.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTH 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 36.2N 141.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 38.1N 142.5E WITH 80 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 41.4N 153.8E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
984 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 34.5N 141.3E GOOD
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 38.1N 142.5E 80NM 70.
MOVE NNE 11KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
48HF 101200UTC 41.4N 153.8E 150NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 080900
WARNING 080900.
WARNING VALID 090900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 34.1N 141.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 35.7N 141.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090900UTC AT 37.6N 141.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 080900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080900UTC 34.1N 141.3E GOOD
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 090900UTC 37.6N 141.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNE 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 100600UTC 40.7N 150.1E 150NM 70.
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 110600UTC 43.2N 168.5E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 080900
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180808074526
2018080806 17W SHANSHAN 023 02 310 06 SATL 030
T000 338N 1413E 080 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 160 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T012 353N 1409E 075 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 000 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 135 SW QD 095 NW QD
T024 370N 1415E 065 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 000 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 130 SE QD 130 SW QD 050 NW QD
T036 390N 1447E 055 R050 015 NE QD 045 SE QD 005 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 150 SE QD 115 SW Q
D 035 NW QD
T048 407N 1506E 045 R034 025 NE QD 175 SE QD 160 SW QD 025 NW QD
T072 435N 1665E 035 R034 030 NE QD 165 SE QD 275 SW QD 005 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 023
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 33.8N 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.8N 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 35.3N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 37.0N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 39.0N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 40.7N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 43.5N 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 34.2N 141.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z,
082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080800 334N1419E 80
1718080806 338N1413E 80
1718080806 338N1413E 80
1718080806 338N1413E 80


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 023
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 33.8N 141.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.8N 141.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 35.3N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 37.0N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 39.0N 144.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 24 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 40.7N 150.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 30 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 43.5N 166.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080900Z POSITION NEAR 34.2N 141.2E.
TYPHOON (TY) 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM
SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 081500Z,
082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z. REFER TO TROPICAL STORM 18W
(YAGI) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.24 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 33.8N, 141.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS CB CLUSTERS GATHERING
AROUND THE CSC AND FORMING A CURVED BAND. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP AND WEAK VWS.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 080600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 22
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 080600UTC 33.7N 141.2E
MOVEMENT NW 7KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 090600UTC 37.2N 140.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
48HR
POSITION 100600UTC 41.6N 151.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 080300
WARNING 080300.
WARNING VALID 090300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 33.5N 141.5E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 34.8N 140.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090300UTC AT 36.6N 140.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 080600
WARNING 080600.
WARNING VALID 090600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 33.8N 141.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 35.3N 140.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 37.2N 141.3E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 40.7N 150.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 43.2N 168.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 080600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080600UTC 33.8N 141.2E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 300NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 090600UTC 37.2N 141.3E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 100600UTC 40.7N 150.1E 150NM 70.
MOVE ENE 19KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 110600UTC 43.2N 168.5E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 080300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080300UTC 33.5N 141.5E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 300NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 090300UTC 36.6N 140.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
45HF 100000UTC 39.8N 145.6E 150NM 70.
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 110000UTC 42.7N 163.0E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 080300
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180808012451
2018080800 17W SHANSHAN 022 02 335 10 SATL 010
T000 334N 1418E 080 R064 040 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 175 SE QD 140 SW QD 180 NW QD
T012 347N 1410E 075 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 035 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 155 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 363N 1409E 070 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 015 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 125 SE QD 135 SW QD 080 NW QD
T036 382N 1425E 060 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 130 SE QD 115 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T048 402N 1468E 050 R050 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 015 NW QD R034 060 NE QD 160 SE QD 135 SW Q
D 040 NW QD
T072 441N 1625E 035 R034 090 NE QD 135 SE QD 180 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 33.4N 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.4N 141.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 34.7N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 36.3N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 38.2N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 40.2N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 44.1N 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 33.7N 141.6E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154 NM SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080800 334N1418E 80
1718080800 334N1418E 80
1718080800 334N1418E 80


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 072100
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180807192208
2018080718 17W SHANSHAN 021 02 305 08 SATL 010
T000 325N 1423E 085 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 060 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 110 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 120 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 337N 1413E 080 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 135 SW QD 205 NW QD
T024 352N 1408E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 371N 1418E 060 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 125 NW QD
T048 389N 1453E 050 R034 115 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 433N 1595E 035 R034 035 NE QD 210 SE QD 235 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 32.5N 142.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.5N 142.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 33.7N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 35.2N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 37.1N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.9N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 43.3N 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 32.8N 142.0E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85
1718080718 325N1423E 85


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 071500
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180807131506
2018080712 17W SHANSHAN 020 02 315 10 SATL 025
T000 320N 1431E 085 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 075 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 135 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 130 SW QD 235 NW QD
T012 333N 1418E 075 R064 055 NE QD 055 SE QD 010 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 135 SW QD 205 NW QD
T024 351N 1409E 070 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 175 SE QD 120 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 372N 1420E 060 R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 035 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 160 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 125 NW QD
T048 387N 1457E 045 R034 115 NE QD 170 SE QD 110 SW QD 090 NW QD
T072 422N 1545E 035 R034 035 NE QD 210 SE QD 235 SW QD 080 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 020
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 32.0N 143.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.0N 143.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 33.3N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 35.1N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 37.2N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 38.7N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 42.2N 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 32.3N 142.8E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85
1718080712 320N1431E 85


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 080300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 022
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080000Z --- NEAR 33.4N 141.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 33.4N 141.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 34.7N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 36.3N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 38.2N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 40.2N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 44.1N 162.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
080300Z POSITION NEAR 33.7N 141.6E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 154 NM SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS
28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 021
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071800Z --- NEAR 32.5N 142.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.5N 142.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 33.7N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 35.2N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 37.1N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.9N 145.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 43.3N 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 32.8N 142.0E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 071500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 020
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
071200Z --- NEAR 32.0N 143.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
235 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 32.0N 143.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 33.3N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
205 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 35.1N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 37.2N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 38.7N 145.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 42.2N 154.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
071500Z POSITION NEAR 32.3N 142.8E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 261 NM SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 30
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 080000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 21
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 080000UTC 33.2N 141.8E
MOVEMENT NW 8KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 090000UTC 36.3N 140.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
48HR
POSITION 100000UTC 40.0N 146.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 110000UTC 44.2N 159.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 071800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 20
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 071800UTC 32.5N 142.3E
MOVEMENT WNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 081800UTC 35.3N 140.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
48HR
POSITION 091800UTC 39.0N 144.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
72HR
POSITION 101800UTC 43.3N 156.1E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 071200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 19
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 071200UTC 32.0N 143.2E
MOVEMENT NW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 081200UTC 34.6N 140.5E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 091200UTC 37.8N 142.9E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
72HR
POSITION 101200UTC 42.3N 153.3E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
96HR
POSITION 111200UTC 46.0N 164.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 072100
WARNING 072100.
WARNING VALID 082100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 32.8N 142.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 33.9N 141.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 082100UTC AT 35.6N 140.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 071500
WARNING 071500.
WARNING VALID 081500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 32.3N 142.7E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 33.5N 141.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081500UTC AT 34.9N 140.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 070900
WARNING 070900.
WARNING VALID 080900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 31.7N 143.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 33.1N 142.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080900UTC AT 34.3N 141.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 080000
WARNING 080000.
WARNING VALID 090000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 33.3N 141.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 34.6N 141.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 36.3N 140.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 39.8N 145.6E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 42.7N 163.0E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 071800
WARNING 071800.
WARNING VALID 081800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 32.5N 142.2E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 33.6N 141.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 35.2N 140.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 38.9N 144.1E WITH 150 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101800UTC AT 42.5N 158.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 071200
WARNING 071200.
WARNING VALID 081200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 32.0N 143.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 33.3N 141.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 34.5N 140.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 37.8N 141.8E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 42.2N 153.9E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS.
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL LOW.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 080000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 33.3N, 141.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT18. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.23 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 33.3N, 141.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS
CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH
A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT18. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS
BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA
TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT24 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF
EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 080000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080000UTC 33.3N 141.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 090000UTC 36.3N 140.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
48HF 100000UTC 39.8N 145.6E 150NM 70.
MOVE NE 13KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 110000UTC 42.7N 163.0E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 072100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 072100UTC 32.8N 142.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 082100UTC 35.6N 140.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
45HF 091800UTC 38.9N 144.1E 150NM 70.
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
69HF 101800UTC 42.5N 158.9E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 071800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 32.5N, 142.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.22 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 32.5N, 142.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS
AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT72 IN A STATE OF EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 071800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071800UTC 32.5N 142.2E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 081800UTC 35.2N 140.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 091800UTC 38.9N 144.1E 150NM 70.
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
72HF 101800UTC 42.5N 158.9E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 071500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071500UTC 32.3N 142.7E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 081500UTC 34.9N 140.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 091200UTC 37.8N 141.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 101200UTC 42.2N 153.9E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 071200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 32.0N, 143.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE
CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.21 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 32.0N, 143.1E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, LOW TCHP, WEAK VWS AND DRY AIR. THIS
HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX
HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE
CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST BETWEEN TWO
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT48. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL
FT72. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND
REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND WEAK VWS. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS, INCREASED VWS AND LAND. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN
GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOW SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSFORM INTO AN
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE BY FT72. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED
ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 32.0N 143.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 081200UTC 34.5N 140.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 091200UTC 37.8N 141.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 101200UTC 42.2N 153.9E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 071200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 071200UTC 32.0N 143.1E GOOD
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 081200UTC 34.5N 140.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 091200UTC 37.8N 141.8E 110NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 101200UTC 42.2N 153.9E 220NM 70. EXTRATROPICAL LOW =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 070900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070900UTC 31.7N 143.6E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 080900UTC 34.3N 141.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 090600UTC 37.3N 140.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
69HF 100600UTC 41.6N 149.8E 220NM 70.
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 070900
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180807072006
2018080706 17W SHANSHAN 019 02 335 09 SATL 025
T000 313N 1439E 090 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 200 SE QD 135 SW QD 165 NW QD
T012 328N 1427E 085 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 055 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 205 SE QD 135 SW QD 185 NW QD
T024 342N 1416E 070 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 155 NW QD
T036 359N 1412E 060 R050 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 175 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 110 NW QD
T048 378N 1435E 055 R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 170 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T072 416N 1525E 045 R034 155 NE QD 280 SE QD 175 SW QD 060 NW QD
AMP
048HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
072HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 31.3N 143.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.3N 143.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 32.8N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 34.2N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 35.9N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 37.8N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 41.6N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 31.7N 143.6E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 319 NM SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080700 305N1443E 75
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90
1718080706 313N1439E 90


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 31.3N 143.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 31.3N 143.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 32.8N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 34.2N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 35.9N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 13 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 37.8N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 41.6N 152.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
070900Z POSITION NEAR 31.7N 143.6E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 319 NM SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070600Z IS
30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 071500Z, 072100Z, 080300Z AND 080900Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW)
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 070600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 31.3N, 143.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE
CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. S-NPP/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.20 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 31.3N, 143.9E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE IN ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL
ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE
CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. S-NPP/ATMS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND REDUCED TCHP. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM
WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION
WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS
BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 061500
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180806132403
2018080612 17W SHANSHAN 016 01 340 14 SATL 050
T000 288N 1456E 070 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 120 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 215 SE QD 120 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 305N 1446E 065 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 010 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 115 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 095 NW QD R034 235 NE QD 255 SE QD 130 SW QD 155 NW QD
T024 321N 1432E 065 R064 040 NE QD 015 SE QD 000 SW QD 005 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 210 SE QD 135 SW QD 185 NW QD
T036 333N 1421E 065 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 100 SE QD 040 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 135 SW QD 175 NW QD
T048 343N 1414E 060 R050 095 NE QD 090 SE QD 050 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 180 SE QD 125 SW Q
D 135 NW QD
T072 377N 1432E 055 R050 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 060 SW QD 010 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 175 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 050 NW QD
T096 428N 1543E 045 R034 125 NE QD 260 SE QD 240 SW QD 090 NW QD
T120 471N 1680E 045 R034 265 NE QD 295 SE QD 270 SW QD 180 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 016
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 28.8N 145.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.8N 145.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.5N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 32.1N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 33.3N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 34.3N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.7N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 42.8N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 47.1N 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 29.2N 145.3E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.
//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 28.8N 145.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.8N 145.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.5N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 32.1N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 33.3N 142.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 34.3N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 37.7N 143.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 25 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 42.8N 154.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 26 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
111200Z --- 47.1N 168.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 265 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 29.2N 145.3E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 207 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 062100Z, 070300Z, 070900Z AND 071500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 070300
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180807014535
2018080700 17W SHANSHAN 018 02 325 10 SATL 030
T000 305N 1443E 070 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 210 SE QD 135 SW QD 150 NW QD
T012 320N 1431E 065 R064 035 NE QD 030 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 035 SW QD 065 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 205 SE QD 135 SW QD 180 NW QD
T024 335N 1419E 060 R050 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 185 SE QD 130 SW QD 170 NW QD
T036 350N 1412E 055 R050 090 NE QD 085 SE QD 035 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 190 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 367N 1414E 050 R050 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 190 SE QD 115 SW QD 085 NW QD
T072 407N 1482E 040 R034 130 NE QD 215 SE QD 170 SW QD 025 NW QD
T096 454N 1618E 030
AMP
072HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
096HR EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 018
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 018
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070000Z --- NEAR 30.5N 144.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 30.5N 144.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 32.0N 143.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 33.5N 141.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 35.0N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 36.7N 141.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 17 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 40.7N 148.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 45.4N 161.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
070300Z POSITION NEAR 30.9N 144.0E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM SOUTHEAST OF
YOKOSUKA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080612 288N1456E 70
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080618 297N1450E 65
1718080700 305N1443E 70
1718080700 305N1443E 70
1718080700 305N1443E 70
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 070000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 17
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 070000UTC 30.5N 144.3E
MOVEMENT NW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 080000UTC 33.2N 141.3E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 090000UTC 35.7N 140.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
72HR
POSITION 100000UTC 40.0N 147.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
96HR
POSITION 110000UTC 44.6N 160.5E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 070600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 18
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 070600UTC 31.3N 143.9E
MOVEMENT NNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 080600UTC 33.9N 140.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 090600UTC 36.8N 141.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
72HR
POSITION 100600UTC 41.2N 150.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
96HR
POSITION 110600UTC 45.3N 162.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 061800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 16
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 061800UTC 29.6N 145.0E
MOVEMENT NNW 12KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 071800UTC 32.5N 142.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
48HR
POSITION 081800UTC 34.9N 140.2E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
72HR
POSITION 091800UTC 38.7N 144.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
96HR
POSITION 101800UTC 43.7N 157.7E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 061200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 15
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 061200UTC 28.5N 145.7E
MOVEMENT NNW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 071200UTC 31.7N 142.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 081200UTC 33.8N 140.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
72HR
POSITION 091200UTC 37.1N 141.6E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
96HR
POSITION 101200UTC 40.6N 148.6E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
120HR
POSITION 111200UTC 43.7N 159.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 070300
WARNING 070300.
WARNING VALID 080300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 30.8N 144.1E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 32.4N 142.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080300UTC AT 33.7N 141.5E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 062100
WARNING 062100.
WARNING VALID 072100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 30.2N 144.6E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 31.8N 143.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 072100UTC AT 33.2N 141.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 060900
WARNING 060900.
WARNING VALID 070900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 28.1N 146.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 29.9N 144.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070900UTC AT 31.4N 143.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 061500
WARNING 061500.
WARNING VALID 071500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 29.0N 145.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 30.7N 144.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071500UTC AT 32.0N 142.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 070600
WARNING 070600.
WARNING VALID 080600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 31.3N 143.9E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION GOOD.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 32.7N 142.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 34.0N 141.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 37.3N 140.7E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100600UTC AT 41.6N 149.8E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 070000
WARNING 070000.
WARNING VALID 080000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 30.5N 144.3E SEA EAST OF JAPAN MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 32.1N 143.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 33.5N 141.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 36.6N 140.6E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 100000UTC AT 40.7N 147.5E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 061800
WARNING 061800.
WARNING VALID 071800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 29.7N 145.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 31.4N 143.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 32.7N 142.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 35.3N 140.5E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091800UTC AT 39.1N 144.3E WITH 220 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 061200
WARNING 061200.
WARNING VALID 071200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 28.5N 145.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 30.2N 144.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 31.6N 142.9E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 33.8N 139.8E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 37.1N 141.2E WITH 170 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 31.3N 143.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 080600UTC 34.0N 141.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 090600UTC 37.3N 140.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 100600UTC 41.6N 149.8E 220NM 70.
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 110600UTC 45.3N 165.2E 300NM 70.
MOVE ENE 29KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 070600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070600UTC 31.3N 143.9E GOOD
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 080600UTC 34.0N 141.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 090600UTC 37.3N 140.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
72HF 100600UTC 41.6N 149.8E 220NM 70.
MOVE ENE 21KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 070300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070300UTC 30.8N 144.1E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 080300UTC 33.7N 141.5E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 090000UTC 36.6N 140.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 100000UTC 40.7N 147.5E 220NM 70.
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 070000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 30.5N, 144.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE
EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. NOAA-18/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.19 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 30.5N, 144.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, REDUCED TCHP
AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED
ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM
SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE
EYE BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. NOAA-18/MHS 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT36 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW,
REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48
DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS PRESENCE OVER THE SEA. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 30.5N 144.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 33.5N 141.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 090000UTC 36.6N 140.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 100000UTC 40.7N 147.5E 220NM 70.
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 110000UTC 45.5N 161.9E 300NM 70.
MOVE ENE 29KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 070000UTC 30.5N 144.3E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 080000UTC 33.5N 141.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 090000UTC 36.6N 140.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 100000UTC 40.7N 147.5E 220NM 70.
MOVE NE 17KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 062100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 062100UTC 30.2N 144.6E FAIR
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 072100UTC 33.2N 141.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 081800UTC 35.3N 140.5E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 091800UTC 39.1N 144.3E 220NM 70.
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 061800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 29.7N, 145.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.18 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 29.7N, 145.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM
TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
SHORTENING OF A BAND WITH CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE
INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS
LANDFALL. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 29.7N 145.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 071800UTC 32.7N 142.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 081800UTC 35.3N 140.5E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 091800UTC 39.1N 144.3E 220NM 70.
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 101800UTC 44.0N 158.5E 300NM 70.
MOVE ENE 29KT
120HF 111800UTC 48.6N 174.4E 425NM 70.
MOVE ENE 30KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 061800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061800UTC 29.7N 145.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 071800UTC 32.7N 142.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 081800UTC 35.3N 140.5E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 091800UTC 39.1N 144.3E 220NM 70.
MOVE NE 12KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 061500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061500UTC 29.0N 145.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 180NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 071500UTC 32.0N 142.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 081200UTC 33.8N 139.8E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
69HF 091200UTC 37.1N 141.2E 170NM 70.
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 061200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 28.5N, 145.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING
AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 28.5N, 145.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND
SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A BAND SPIRALING
AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD
CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT12 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND INCREASED VWS. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO ITS LANDFALL. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 28.5N 145.7E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 31.6N 142.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 081200UTC 33.8N 139.8E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 091200UTC 37.1N 141.2E 170NM 70.
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
96HF 101200UTC 41.7N 153.1E 260NM 70.
MOVE ENE 26KT
120HF 111200UTC 46.1N 167.1E 350NM 70.
MOVE ENE 27KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 061200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 061200UTC 28.5N 145.7E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM EAST 210NM WEST
FORECAST
24HF 071200UTC 31.6N 142.9E 50NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 081200UTC 33.8N 139.8E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
72HF 091200UTC 37.1N 141.2E 170NM 70.
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 060900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060900UTC 28.1N 146.0E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 070900UTC 31.4N 143.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 080600UTC 32.9N 140.2E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 090600UTC 35.4N 139.9E 130NM 70.
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 060900
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180806075140
2018080606 17W SHANSHAN 015 01 355 10 SATL 030
T000 275N 1461E 080 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 225 SE QD 130 SW QD 135 NW QD
T012 293N 1451E 080 R064 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 250 SE QD 135 SW QD 145 NW QD
T024 310N 1440E 075 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 010 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 220 SE QD 125 SW QD 155 NW QD
T036 323N 1427E 070 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 015 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 200 SE QD 130 SW QD 165 NW QD
T048 335N 1416E 070 R064 065 NE QD 060 SE QD 020 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 366N 1420E 065 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 060 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 035 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 175 SE QD 135 SW QD 085 NW QD
T096 410N 1505E 055 R050 035 NE QD 080 SE QD 085 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 125 NE QD 245 SE QD 220 SW Q
D 085 NW QD
T120 452N 1652E 050 R050 000 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 285 SE QD 260 SW Q
D 175 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 015
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 27.5N 146.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 146.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 29.3N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 31.0N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 32.3N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 33.5N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 36.6N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 41.0N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 45.2N 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 27.9N 145.8E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM EAST OF
CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.
//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80
1718080606 275N1461E 80


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 060900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060600Z --- NEAR 27.5N 146.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 355 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 27.5N 146.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 29.3N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 31.0N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 32.3N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
165 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 33.5N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 36.6N 142.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 41.0N 150.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 29 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110600Z --- 45.2N 165.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060900Z POSITION NEAR 27.9N 145.8E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 209 NM EAST OF
CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060600Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 061500Z, 062100Z, 070300Z AND 070900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 060600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 14
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 060600UTC 27.4N 146.0E
MOVEMENT NNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 070600UTC 31.1N 143.0E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 080600UTC 33.4N 140.3E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 090600UTC 35.7N 140.0E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
96HR
POSITION 100600UTC 39.7N 145.9E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
120HR
POSITION 110600UTC 42.3N 154.9E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 060600
WARNING 060600.
WARNING VALID 070600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 27.5N 146.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 29.4N 144.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 30.8N 143.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 32.9N 140.2E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 35.4N 139.9E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 060600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 27.5N, 146.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.16 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 27.5N, 146.0E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR.
THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE
AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE
PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE
JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA
INCLUDING GSM.

=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 27.5N 146.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 070600UTC 30.8N 143.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 080600UTC 32.9N 140.2E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 090600UTC 35.4N 139.9E 130NM 70.
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 100600UTC 40.1N 147.2E 260NM 70.
MOVE NE 19KT
120HF 110600UTC 43.5N 161.3E 350NM 70.
MOVE ENE 28KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 060600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060600UTC 27.5N 146.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 070600UTC 30.8N 143.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 080600UTC 32.9N 140.2E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 090600UTC 35.4N 139.9E 130NM 70.
MOVE N 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 060300
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180806012928
2018080600 17W SHANSHAN 014 01 335 09 SATL 040
T000 265N 1462E 080 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 200 SE QD 140 SW QD 125 NW QD
T012 283N 1452E 080 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 220 SE QD 145 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 301N 1442E 075 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 100 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 205 NE QD 220 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T036 315N 1430E 075 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 220 SE QD 135 SW QD 180 NW QD
T048 329N 1418E 070 R064 055 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 180 SE QD 140 SW QD 175 NW QD
T072 354N 1410E 065 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 140 SE QD 115 SW QD 105 NW QD
T096 395N 1461E 055 R050 045 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 130 NE QD 180 SE QD 170 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T120 437N 1571E 050 R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 065 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 245 SE QD 205 SW Q
D 135 NW QD
AMP
096HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 014
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 26.5N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.3N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.1N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 31.5N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 32.9N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 35.4N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 39.5N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 43.7N 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 145.9E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80
1718080600 265N1462E 80


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 052100
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180805194529
2018080518 17W SHANSHAN 013 01 330 11 SATL 030
T000 257N 1466E 080 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 205 SE QD 145 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 275N 1456E 085 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 230 SE QD 135 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 293N 1445E 085 R064 060 NE QD 065 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 250 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 309N 1434E 080 R064 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 230 SE QD 130 SW QD 150 NW QD
T048 321N 1423E 075 R064 055 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 205 SE QD 130 SW QD 180 NW QD
T072 346N 1407E 065 R064 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 075 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 130 NW QD
T096 382N 1437E 055 R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 060 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 110 NE QD 160 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 100 NW QD
T120 423N 1523E 045 R034 190 NE QD 240 SE QD 110 SW QD 070 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 013
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 25.7N 146.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 146.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.5N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 29.3N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 30.9N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 32.1N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 34.6N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.2N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 42.3N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 146.3E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 293 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.
//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080512 248N1472E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80
1718080518 257N1466E 80


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 014
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
060000Z --- NEAR 26.5N 146.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 26.5N 146.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.3N 145.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.1N 144.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 205 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 31.5N 143.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 32.9N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 35.4N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 39.5N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
110000Z --- 43.7N 157.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
245 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
060300Z POSITION NEAR 26.9N 145.9E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 284 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 060000Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z, 061500Z, 062100Z AND 070300Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 013
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 25.7N 146.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 25.7N 146.6E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.5N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 29.3N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 30.9N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 32.1N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 34.6N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.2N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 42.3N 152.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 26.1N 146.3E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 293 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z
IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 060000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 13
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 060000UTC 26.5N 146.2E
MOVEMENT NW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 070000UTC 30.4N 143.4E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 080000UTC 32.9N 140.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 090000UTC 35.4N 139.6E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
96HR
POSITION 100000UTC 38.8N 143.6E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
120HR
POSITION 110000UTC 42.0N 152.6E WITHIN 0NM
PRES/VMAX 994HPA 41KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 051800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 12
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 051800UTC 25.6N 146.9E
MOVEMENT NNW 9KT
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 061800UTC 29.9N 143.8E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 071800UTC 32.9N 141.4E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
72HR
POSITION 081800UTC 35.3N 140.3E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
96HR
POSITION 091800UTC 38.1N 142.5E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
120HR
POSITION 101800UTC 41.4N 151.4E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 060300
WARNING 060300.
WARNING VALID 070300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 27.0N 146.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 210
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 28.9N 145.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070300UTC AT 30.6N 144.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 052100
WARNING 052100.
WARNING VALID 062100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 26.0N 146.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 28.0N 145.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 062100UTC AT 29.8N 144.4E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 051500
WARNING 051500.
WARNING VALID 061500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 25.1N 147.0E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 27.0N 146.0E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061500UTC AT 28.9N 144.9E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 060000
WARNING 060000.
WARNING VALID 070000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 26.5N 146.2E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 28.5N 145.3E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 30.2N 144.1E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 32.8N 141.0E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 34.8N 139.3E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 051800
WARNING 051800.
WARNING VALID 061800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 25.6N 146.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 210 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 27.6N 145.8E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 29.4N 144.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 32.4N 141.8E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 34.1N 139.7E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 060300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060300UTC 27.0N 146.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 210NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 070300UTC 30.6N 144.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
45HF 080000UTC 32.8N 141.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
69HF 090000UTC 34.8N 139.3E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 060000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 26.5N, 146.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 060000 CCA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 26.5N, 146.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE
JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO
OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48
BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.15 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 26.5N, 146.2E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A NEUTRAL
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND DRY AIR. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
BAND SPIRALING AROUND THE CSC BY AT LEAST 360 DEGREES. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F17/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY
ACCELERATE AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL
THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE SOUTHWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT LOW
THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL MODEL
OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND INCREASED VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE DATA INCLUDING GSM.

=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 26.5N 146.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 30.2N 144.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 080000UTC 32.8N 141.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 090000UTC 34.8N 139.3E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
96HF 100000UTC 38.4N 142.9E 260NM 70.
MOVE NE 12KT
120HF 110000UTC 41.7N 154.6E 350NM 70.
MOVE ENE 24KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 060000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 060000UTC 26.5N 146.2E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 070000UTC 30.2N 144.1E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
48HF 080000UTC 32.8N 141.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
72HF 090000UTC 34.8N 139.3E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 052100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 052100UTC 26.0N 146.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 062100UTC 29.8N 144.4E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 071800UTC 32.4N 141.8E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 081800UTC 34.1N 139.7E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 051800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 25.6N, 146.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL
FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.14 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 25.6N, 146.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS AND
GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT24. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY DECELERATE AND MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL
FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY ACCELERATE AND MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE
OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE JMA
INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 25.6N 146.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 29.4N 144.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 071800UTC 32.4N 141.8E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 081800UTC 34.1N 139.7E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT
96HF 091800UTC 36.5N 140.7E 210NM 70.
MOVE NNE 06KT
120HF 101800UTC 40.8N 149.8E 350NM 70.
MOVE ENE 20KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 051800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051800UTC 25.6N 146.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 061800UTC 29.4N 144.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 071800UTC 32.4N 141.8E 95NM 70.
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 081800UTC 34.1N 139.7E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 060KT
GUST 085KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 051500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051500UTC 25.1N 147.0E FAIR
MOVE N 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 210NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 061500UTC 28.9N 144.9E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 071200UTC 31.7N 142.5E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
69HF 081200UTC 33.3N 139.9E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 051500
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180805135232
2018080512 17W SHANSHAN 012 01 335 08 SATL 060
T000 247N 1471E 080 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 266N 1461E 085 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 115 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 250 SE QD 145 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 284N 1451E 085 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 115 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 270 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 302N 1440E 080 R064 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 115 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 280 SE QD 130 SW QD 135 NW QD
T048 316N 1428E 075 R064 065 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 240 SE QD 130 SW QD 175 NW QD
T072 336N 1407E 065 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 055 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 085 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 160 SE QD 125 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 366N 1415E 055 R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 165 SE QD 110 SW Q
D 070 NW QD
T120 411N 1496E 045 R034 195 NE QD 235 SE QD 195 SW QD 115 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 012
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 24.7N 147.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 147.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 26.6N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.4N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.2N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 31.6N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 33.6N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 36.6N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 41.1N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 146.8E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.
//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080512 247N1471E 80
1718080512 247N1471E 80
1718080512 247N1471E 80


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 050900
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180805074829
2018080506 17W SHANSHAN 011 01 005 10 SATL 040
T000 240N 1475E 075 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 100 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 175 SE QD 100 SW QD 115 NW QD
T012 257N 1469E 080 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 165 NE QD 190 SE QD 125 SW QD 130 NW QD
T024 277N 1458E 085 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 030 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 110 NE QD 120 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 270 SE QD 140 SW QD 135 NW QD
T036 293N 1448E 085 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 025 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 115 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 235 NE QD 275 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T048 310N 1437E 080 R064 060 NE QD 055 SE QD 025 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 105 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 240 NE QD 260 SE QD 125 SW QD 160 NW QD
T072 334N 1413E 070 R064 040 NE QD 045 SE QD 050 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 175 SE QD 120 SW QD 145 NW QD
T096 357N 1412E 055 R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 065 SW QD 075 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 145 SE QD 095 SW Q
D 085 NW QD
T120 395N 1464E 045 R034 150 NE QD 160 SE QD 135 SW QD 100 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 011
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 24.0N 147.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 147.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 25.7N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.7N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 29.3N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 31.0N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 33.4N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 35.7N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 39.5N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 147.3E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.
//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75
1718080506 240N1475E 75


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 24.7N 147.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 335 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.7N 147.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 26.6N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.4N 145.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.2N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 31.6N 142.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 33.6N 140.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 36.6N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 19 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101200Z --- 41.1N 149.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
235 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 25.2N 146.8E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHICHI JIMA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 052100Z, 060300Z, 060900Z AND 061500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 050900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 011
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050600Z --- NEAR 24.0N 147.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 005 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.0N 147.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 25.7N 146.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.7N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 29.3N 144.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 31.0N 143.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
260 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 33.4N 141.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 35.7N 141.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100600Z --- 39.5N 146.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050900Z POSITION NEAR 24.4N 147.3E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 328 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050600Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 051500Z, 052100Z, 060300Z AND 060900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 051200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 11
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 051200UTC 24.8N 147.3E
MOVEMENT N 9KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 061200UTC 28.8N 144.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 071200UTC 31.6N 142.6E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
72HR
POSITION 081200UTC 34.4N 140.7E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 091200UTC 37.3N 141.7E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
120HR
POSITION 101200UTC 40.3N 148.2E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 050600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 10
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 050600UTC 23.9N 147.3E
MOVEMENT N 9KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 060600UTC 27.7N 144.7E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 070600UTC 30.9N 143.1E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 080600UTC 33.7N 141.2E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
96HR
POSITION 090600UTC 36.6N 140.6E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
120HR
POSITION 100600UTC 40.0N 145.2E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 050900
WARNING 050900.
WARNING VALID 060900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 24.5N 147.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 26.4N 146.4E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060900UTC AT 28.2N 145.3E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 051200
WARNING 051200.
WARNING VALID 061200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 24.6N 147.3E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 26.5N 146.2E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 28.3N 145.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 31.7N 142.5E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081200UTC AT 33.3N 139.9E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 050600
WARNING 050600.
WARNING VALID 060600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 23.8N 147.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 25.6N 146.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 27.6N 145.5E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 30.9N 143.0E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080600UTC AT 32.9N 140.1E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 051200 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 24.6N, 147.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.13 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 24.6N, 147.3E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS
DATA ESTIMATED FROM SATELLITE SCATTEROMETERS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
DMSP-F18/SSMIS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A
BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT72.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM
PREDICTIONS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW.
THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS AND LOW TCHP. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 24.6N 147.3E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 28.3N 145.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 071200UTC 31.7N 142.5E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 081200UTC 33.3N 139.9E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
96HF 091200UTC 35.5N 139.9E 210NM 70.
MOVE N 06KT
120HF 101200UTC 39.9N 148.9E 350NM 70.
MOVE ENE 18KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 051200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 051200UTC 24.6N 147.3E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 061200UTC 28.3N 145.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 071200UTC 31.7N 142.5E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 081200UTC 33.3N 139.9E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 050900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050900UTC 24.5N 147.4E FAIR
MOVE N 08KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 060900UTC 28.2N 145.3E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 070600UTC 30.9N 143.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 080600UTC 32.9N 140.1E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 050600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 23.8N, 147.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.12 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 23.8N, 147.5E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A CDO PATTERN.
ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 23.8N 147.5E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 27.6N 145.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 070600UTC 30.9N 143.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 080600UTC 32.9N 140.1E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 090600UTC 35.0N 138.4E 240NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
120HF 100600UTC 38.4N 145.4E 350NM 70.
MOVE ENE 16KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 050600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050600UTC 23.8N 147.5E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 060600UTC 27.6N 145.5E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 070600UTC 30.9N 143.0E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 080600UTC 32.9N 140.1E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 050300
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180805012348
2018080500 17W SHANSHAN 010 01 330 06 SATL 040
T000 230N 1474E 075 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 030 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 085 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 170 SE QD 145 SW QD 100 NW QD
T012 247N 1465E 085 R064 060 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 200 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 264N 1456E 090 R064 070 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 210 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 281N 1446E 090 R064 075 NE QD 065 SE QD 025 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 125 NE QD 120 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 085 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 215 SE QD 140 SW QD 135 NW QD
T048 298N 1435E 085 R064 070 NE QD 065 SE QD 020 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 120 NE QD 115 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 090 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 200 SE QD 130 SW QD 140 NW QD
T072 327N 1415E 070 R064 060 NE QD 050 SE QD 020 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 090 SE QD 055 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 190 SE QD 125 SW QD 120 NW QD
T096 354N 1408E 055 R050 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 050 SW QD 030 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 195 SE QD 120 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T120 394N 1435E 040 R034 130 NE QD 200 SE QD 155 SW QD 045 NW QD
AMP
120HR BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
SUBJ: TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 010
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 23.0N 147.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 147.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 24.7N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 26.4N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.1N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 29.8N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 32.7N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 35.4N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 39.4N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 147.2E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75
1718080500 230N1474E 75


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 042100
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180804195538
2018080418 17W SHANSHAN 009 01 325 08 SATL 040
T000 225N 1477E 075 R064 040 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 095 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 170 SE QD 140 SW QD 090 NW QD
T012 242N 1468E 090 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 225 SE QD 160 SW QD 120 NW QD
T024 258N 1460E 095 R064 055 NE QD 065 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 250 SE QD 155 SW QD 125 NW QD
T036 276N 1450E 095 R064 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 285 SE QD 145 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 294N 1440E 090 R064 065 NE QD 065 SE QD 040 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 105 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 075 NW QD R034 225 NE QD 300 SE QD 140 SW QD 130 NW QD
T072 324N 1416E 075 R064 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 030 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 080 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 215 SE QD 145 SW QD 155 NW QD
T096 350N 1403E 060 R050 075 NE QD 080 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 135 NE QD 165 SE QD 125 SW Q
D 090 NW QD
T120 386N 1424E 045 R034 125 NE QD 150 SE QD 125 SW QD 090 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 009
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 22.5N 147.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 147.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 24.2N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 25.8N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.6N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 29.4N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 32.4N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 35.0N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.6N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 147.5E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.
//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080406 209N1487E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75
1718080418 225N1477E 75


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 041500
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180804133959
2018080412 17W SHANSHAN 008 01 330 11 SATL 060
T000 218N 1482E 070 R064 040 NE QD 055 SE QD 035 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 100 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 180 SE QD 135 SW QD 085 NW QD
T012 235N 1472E 080 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 035 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 045 NW QD R034 175 NE QD 210 SE QD 150 SW QD 115 NW QD
T024 251N 1465E 095 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 100 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 200 NE QD 240 SE QD 155 SW QD 130 NW QD
T036 268N 1456E 095 R064 050 NE QD 060 SE QD 045 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 115 SE QD 075 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 220 NE QD 270 SE QD 150 SW QD 135 NW QD
T048 287N 1445E 090 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 120 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 285 SE QD 130 SW QD 145 NW QD
T072 320N 1425E 075 R064 055 NE QD 060 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 110 SE QD 070 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 275 SE QD 135 SW QD 185 NW QD
T096 348N 1409E 060 R050 075 NE QD 100 SE QD 065 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 160 NE QD 195 SE QD 125 SW Q
D 115 NW QD
T120 384N 1418E 045 R034 090 NE QD 150 SE QD 110 SW QD 075 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 008
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 21.8N 148.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 148.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.5N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 25.1N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 26.8N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.7N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 32.0N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 34.8N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 38.4N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 147.9E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM NORTHEAST OF
AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.
//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 208N1488E 65
1718080406 208N1488E 65
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70
1718080412 218N1482E 70


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 040900
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180804081358
2018080406 17W SHANSHAN 007 01 330 08 SATL 030
T000 208N 1488E 065 R050 075 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 145 NE QD 165 SE QD 165 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
T012 225N 1478E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 020 SW QD 010 NW QD R050 075 NE QD 085 SE QD 065 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 200 SE QD 175 SW QD 100 NW QD
T024 241N 1468E 085 R064 045 NE QD 050 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 095 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 050 NW QD R034 190 NE QD 215 SE QD 175 SW QD 120 NW QD
T036 260N 1461E 090 R064 050 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 100 NE QD 110 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 255 SE QD 170 SW QD 130 NW QD
T048 276N 1456E 095 R064 050 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 105 NE QD 115 SE QD 080 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 295 SE QD 150 SW QD 135 NW QD
T072 312N 1434E 085 R064 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 040 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 145 SE QD 090 SW Q
D 070 NW QD R034 230 NE QD 280 SE QD 145 SW QD 150 NW QD
T096 336N 1416E 075 R064 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 050 SW QD 045 NW QD R050 085 NE QD 105 SE QD 095 SW Q
D 065 NW QD R034 180 NE QD 190 SE QD 150 SW QD 140 NW QD
T120 374N 1415E 060 R050 045 NE QD 070 SE QD 080 SW QD 025 NW QD R034 095 NE QD 135 SE QD 140 SW Q
D 080 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 007
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 17W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 20.8N 148.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 148.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.5N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 24.1N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 26.0N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.6N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 31.2N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 33.6N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 37.4N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 148.5E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM NORTHEAST OF
AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.
//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080406 208N1488E 65
1718080406 208N1488E 65


Original Message :

WTPN51 PGTW 040300
WARNING ATCG MIL 17W NWP 180804014616
2018080400 17W SHANSHAN 006 01 345 08 SATL 045
T000 201N 1492E 055 R050 055 NE QD 045 SE QD 000 SW QD 000 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 180 SE QD 160 SW Q
D 075 NW QD
T012 217N 1481E 065 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 010 SW QD 015 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 055 SE QD 025 SW Q
D 020 NW QD R034 140 NE QD 195 SE QD 135 SW QD 065 NW QD
T024 234N 1472E 075 R064 025 NE QD 035 SE QD 015 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 035 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 170 NE QD 205 SE QD 140 SW QD 095 NW QD
T036 251N 1465E 085 R064 030 NE QD 035 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 070 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 030 NW QD R034 185 NE QD 225 SE QD 155 SW QD 105 NW QD
T048 268N 1458E 090 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 030 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 070 NE QD 085 SE QD 050 SW Q
D 040 NW QD R034 210 NE QD 255 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD
T072 303N 1446E 090 R064 045 NE QD 040 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 090 NE QD 095 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 045 NW QD R034 245 NE QD 270 SE QD 140 SW QD 140 NW QD
T096 336N 1434E 085 R064 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R050 095 NE QD 100 SE QD 045 SW Q
D 060 NW QD R034 235 NE QD 255 SE QD 155 SW QD 180 NW QD
T120 373N 1425E 075 R064 035 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 080 NE QD 090 SE QD 060 SW Q
D 055 NW QD R034 215 NE QD 230 SE QD 165 SW QD 160 NW QD
AMP
SUBJ: TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 006
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 149.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 149.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.7N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.4N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 25.1N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 26.8N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.3N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 33.6N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 37.3N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 148.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.
//
1718080118 183N1535E 15
1718080200 184N1527E 20
1718080206 183N1520E 20
1718080212 182N1513E 20
1718080218 180N1509E 25
1718080300 179N1507E 35
1718080306 180N1505E 40
1718080312 185N1500E 45
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080318 193N1494E 50
1718080400 201N1492E 55
1718080400 201N1492E 55


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
050000Z --- NEAR 23.0N 147.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 23.0N 147.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 24.7N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 26.4N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.1N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 29.8N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 32.7N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 35.4N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
100000Z --- 39.4N 143.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 23.4N 147.2E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 352 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z
IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 042100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 009
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041800Z --- NEAR 22.5N 147.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5N 147.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 24.2N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 25.8N 146.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.6N 145.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 29.4N 144.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 225 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 32.4N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
155 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 35.0N 140.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 38.6N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
042100Z POSITION NEAR 22.9N 147.5E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM NORTH-
NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
041200Z --- NEAR 21.8N 148.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 11 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.8N 148.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.5N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 25.1N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 26.8N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 28.7N 144.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
285 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
145 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
071200Z --- 32.0N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
275 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
081200Z --- 34.8N 140.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
091200Z --- 38.4N 141.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
041500Z POSITION NEAR 22.2N 147.9E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM NORTHEAST OF
AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041200Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 042100Z, 050300Z, 050900Z AND 051500Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 040900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 007
UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 17W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040600Z --- NEAR 20.8N 148.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 330 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.8N 148.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 22.5N 147.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 24.1N 146.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 190 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
215 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 26.0N 146.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 27.6N 145.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
295 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 31.2N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
280 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080600Z --- 33.6N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090600Z --- 37.4N 141.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040900Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 148.5E.
TYPHOON 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 212 NM NORTHEAST OF
AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT
WARNINGS AT 041500Z, 042100Z, 050300Z AND 050900Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTPN31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN) WARNING NR 006
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
040000Z --- NEAR 20.1N 149.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 345 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 20.1N 149.2E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
041200Z --- 21.7N 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
195 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
050000Z --- 23.4N 147.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
205 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
051200Z --- 25.1N 146.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 26.8N 145.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
070000Z --- 30.3N 144.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
080000Z --- 33.6N 143.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 235 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
255 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
090000Z --- 37.3N 142.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 215 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
165 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 148.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 17W (SHANSHAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 213 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF AGRIHAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z
IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z.//
NNNN


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 050000
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 9
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 050000UTC 23.0N 147.3E
MOVEMENT NW 6KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 060000UTC 26.8N 145.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 955HPA 78KT
48HR
POSITION 070000UTC 30.1N 143.5E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 080000UTC 33.0N 141.7E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 090000UTC 35.8N 140.3E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
120HR
POSITION 100000UTC 38.9N 142.1E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 992HPA 45KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 041800
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 8
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 041800UTC 22.5N 147.7E
MOVEMENT NW 10KT
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 051800UTC 25.9N 145.6E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
48HR
POSITION 061800UTC 29.4N 144.0E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 950HPA 84KT
72HR
POSITION 071800UTC 32.3N 142.1E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 081800UTC 34.8N 140.8E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
120HR
POSITION 091800UTC 38.4N 141.9E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 990HPA 47KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 041200
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 7
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 041200UTC 21.7N 148.4E
MOVEMENT NNW 7KT
PRES/VMAX 975HPA 62KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 051200UTC 25.0N 145.9E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
48HR
POSITION 061200UTC 28.7N 144.5E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 071200UTC 31.7N 143.4E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
96HR
POSITION 081200UTC 34.8N 142.7E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
120HR
POSITION 091200UTC 37.7N 142.3E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTKO20 RKSL 040600
KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 6
NAME 1813 SHANSHAN
ANALYSIS
POSITION 040600UTC 21.0N 148.6E
MOVEMENT NW 11KT
PRES/VMAX 980HPA 56KT
FORECAST
24HR
POSITION 050600UTC 24.4N 146.2E WITHIN 60NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
48HR
POSITION 060600UTC 28.1N 144.8E WITHIN 90NM
PRES/VMAX 960HPA 76KT
72HR
POSITION 070600UTC 31.2N 143.6E WITHIN 135NM
PRES/VMAX 965HPA 72KT
96HR
POSITION 080600UTC 34.4N 142.8E WITHIN 180NM
PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT
120HR
POSITION 090600UTC 37.5N 142.3E WITHIN 245NM
PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT
KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION.


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 050300
WARNING 050300.
WARNING VALID 060300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 23.4N 147.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTH 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 25.1N 146.6E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060300UTC AT 27.1N 145.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 042100
WARNING 042100.
WARNING VALID 052100.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 22.8N 147.5E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 24.8N 146.7E WITH 40 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 052100UTC AT 26.5N 145.8E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 041500
WARNING 041500.
WARNING VALID 051500.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 22.1N 148.0E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 09
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 23.8N 147.1E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051500UTC AT 25.5N 146.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 040900
WARNING 040900.
WARNING VALID 050900.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 975 HPA
AT 21.3N 148.5E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 042100UTC AT 23.0N 147.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050900UTC AT 24.6N 146.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP32 RJTD 040300
WARNING 040300.
WARNING VALID 050300.
TYPHOON WARNING.
SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 985 HPA
AT 20.5N 148.9E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041500UTC AT 22.2N 147.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
980 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050300UTC AT 23.8N 146.7E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 050000
WARNING 050000.
WARNING VALID 060000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 22.9N 147.4E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 24.6N 146.7E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060000UTC AT 26.5N 145.6E WITH 60 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070000UTC AT 30.5N 143.6E WITH 110 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 080000UTC AT 33.0N 141.1E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 041800
WARNING 041800.
WARNING VALID 051800.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 970 HPA
AT 22.5N 147.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 55 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 24.4N 146.9E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051800UTC AT 26.0N 146.0E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061800UTC AT 29.8N 144.1E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071800UTC AT 32.4N 141.5E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 041200
WARNING 041200.
WARNING VALID 051200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) 975 HPA
AT 21.6N 148.4E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 08
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 150
MILES ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050000UTC AT 23.2N 147.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 051200UTC AT 24.9N 146.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 061200UTC AT 28.6N 144.6E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
950 HPA, MAX WINDS 85 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 071200UTC AT 31.7N 142.2E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTJP22 RJTD 040600
WARNING 040600.
WARNING VALID 050600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TYPHOON WARNING.
TYPHOON 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 975
HPA
AT 20.9N 148.7E SEA AROUND OF MINAMITORISIMA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 10
KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 300 MILES SOUTH SEMICIRCLE AND 150 MILES
ELSEWHERE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 041800UTC AT 22.4N 147.5E WITH 30 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
975 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 050600UTC AT 24.1N 146.6E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
970 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 060600UTC AT 27.5N 144.7E WITH 95 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
955 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 070600UTC AT 30.6N 142.7E WITH 130 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
965 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 050300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050300UTC 23.4N 147.5E FAIR
MOVE N 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 060300UTC 27.1N 145.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 070000UTC 30.5N 143.6E 110NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 080000UTC 33.0N 141.1E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 050000 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 22.9N, 147.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.11 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 22.9N, 147.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
NEUTRAL ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH
SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE
SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS.
INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY
ANALYSES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS DRY AIR AROUND THE
SYSTEM.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH
UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
MID-LATITUDE PREVAILING WESTERLIES UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK
FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP
MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE
INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 22.9N 147.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 26.5N 145.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 070000UTC 30.5N 143.6E 110NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 080000UTC 33.0N 141.1E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
96HF 090000UTC 35.2N 140.2E 240NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT
120HF 100000UTC 39.2N 145.8E 350NM 70.
MOVE NE 15KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 050000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 050000UTC 22.9N 147.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 07KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 060000UTC 26.5N 145.6E 60NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 070000UTC 30.5N 143.6E 110NM 70.
MOVE NNW 11KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 080000UTC 33.0N 141.1E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 08KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 042100
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 042100UTC 22.8N 147.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 052100UTC 26.5N 145.8E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
45HF 061800UTC 29.8N 144.1E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 071800UTC 32.4N 141.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 041800 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 22.5N, 147.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR IS
UNFAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO.10 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 22.5N, 147.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER
THE LAST SIX HOURS. HOWEVER, THE INFLUENCE OF DRY AIR IS
UNFAVORABLE FOR SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT. INFORMATION ON CURRENT
INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS A
CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF
ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW. GPM/GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
SYSTEM HAS A BAND WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTHWARD
BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120. THE JMA
TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER
NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL FT48 BUT
LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG NUMERICAL
MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY UNTIL
FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND REDUCED TCHP. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN
UNTIL FT72 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LOW TCHP. THE JMA INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 22.5N 147.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 26.0N 146.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 061800UTC 29.8N 144.1E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 071800UTC 32.4N 141.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 081800UTC 34.3N 139.4E 240NM 70.
MOVE NW 06KT
120HF 091800UTC 36.8N 140.7E 350NM 70.
MOVE NNE 07KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 041800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041800UTC 22.5N 147.7E FAIR
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 051800UTC 26.0N 146.0E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
48HF 061800UTC 29.8N 144.1E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 071800UTC 32.4N 141.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 041500
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041500UTC 22.1N 148.0E FAIR
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 55NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 051500UTC 25.5N 146.2E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
45HF 061200UTC 28.6N 144.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
69HF 071200UTC 31.7N 142.2E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 21.6N, 148.4E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS
FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, THE LIMITED FIRMNESS OF ITS
STRUCTURE HAS CAUSED IT TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY OVER THE LAST
SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
INTENSITY ANALYSES.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
FORMATION OF A CDO PATTERN. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD
CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGHS UNTIL FT120.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR UNTIL
FT72 BUT LOW THEREAFTER DUE TO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG
NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUTS.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER
LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72
DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF REDUCED TCHP. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 21.6N 148.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 24.9N 146.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 061200UTC 28.6N 144.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 071200UTC 31.7N 142.2E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
96HF 081200UTC 33.9N 140.2E 240NM 70.
MOVE NW 07KT
120HF 091200UTC 36.7N 140.0E 375NM 70.
MOVE N 07KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 041200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 041200UTC 21.6N 148.4E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 051200UTC 24.9N 146.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 061200UTC 28.6N 144.6E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 071200UTC 31.7N 142.2E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 040900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040900UTC 21.3N 148.5E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM SOUTHEAST 150NM NORTHWEST
FORECAST
24HF 050900UTC 24.6N 146.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 060600UTC 27.5N 144.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 070600UTC 30.6N 142.7E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 040600 RRA
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 20.9N, 148.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
DMSP-F15/SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF


Original Message :

WTPQ31 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 8 FOR TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
1.GENERAL COMMENTS
TY SHANSHAN IS LOCATED AT 20.9N, 148.7E. INFORMATION ON THE
CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY.
POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS FAIR. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH
TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY
IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES AND SURFACE WINDS DATA
ESTIMATED FROM SEA SURFACE AMVS.
2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION
THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE
ELONGATION OF A BAND WITH A CURVATURE SUGGESTING THE CSC. ANIMATED
MSI SHOWS GOOD CLOUD CHARACTERISTICS OF ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW.
DMSP-F15/SSMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS A BAND
WITH CURVATURE INDICATING THE CSC.
3.TRACK FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A
MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT72. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL
HIGH UNTIL FT96. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT120.
THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE
TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE
ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.
4.INTENSITY FORECAST
THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT48 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF
INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT72 DUE TO
THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LOWER SSTS, REDUCED TCHP AND
INCREASED VWS. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE
DATA.
=


Original Message :

WTPQ51 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 20.9N 148.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 24.1N 146.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 060600UTC 27.5N 144.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 070600UTC 30.6N 142.7E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
96HF 080600UTC 32.9N 140.0E 240NM 70.
MOVE WNW 08KT
120HF 090600UTC 35.3N 138.9E 375NM 70.
MOVE NNW 06KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 040600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1813 SHANSHAN (1813) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040600UTC 20.9N 148.7E FAIR
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 050600UTC 24.1N 146.6E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
48HF 060600UTC 27.5N 144.7E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
72HF 070600UTC 30.6N 142.7E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =


Original Message :

WTPQ21 RJTD 040300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1813 SHANSHAN (1813)
ANALYSIS
PSTN 040300UTC 20.5N 148.9E FAIR
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 985HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT
50KT 40NM
30KT 300NM SOUTH 150NM NORTH
FORECAST
24HF 050300UTC 23.8N 146.7E 50NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 970HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
45HF 060000UTC 26.7N 145.2E 95NM 70.
MOVE NNW 09KT
PRES 955HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
69HF 070000UTC 30.2N 143.5E 130NM 70.
MOVE NNW 10KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT =