Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for FREDDY-23
in Mozambique, Madagascar
21 Feb 2023 00 UTC
click on to select bulletin time
Impact Single TC
Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone FREDDY-23 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source HWRF
Exposed countries Madagascar, Reunion, Mozambique
Exposed population 80 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 184 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.3 m (21 Feb 01:15 UTC)
Vulnerability High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
HWRF Current 184 km/h 0.3 m 161 mm 0.5
HWRF Overall 263 km/h 0.7 m 1685 mm 1.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

263 km/h

Up to 80 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 2Madagascar11,404 
CAT. 1Madagascar70,449 
Tropical StormMadagascar, Reunion, Mozambique2,901,125
+
Madagascar2,694,622 
Reunion101,933 
Mozambique104,568 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Feb 2023 06:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Feb 2023 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Feb 2023 18:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Feb 2023 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 07 Feb 2023 12:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 07 Feb 2023 18:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 08 Feb 2023 00:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 08 Feb 2023 06:00 212 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 08 Feb 2023 12:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 08 Feb 2023 18:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 09 Feb 2023 00:00 140 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 09 Feb 2023 06:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 09 Feb 2023 12:00 104 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 09 Feb 2023 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 16 10 Feb 2023 00:00 108 - - - - - - -
GREEN 17 10 Feb 2023 06:00 151 - - - - - - -
GREEN 18 10 Feb 2023 12:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 19 10 Feb 2023 18:00 137 - - - - - - -
GREEN 20 11 Feb 2023 00:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 21 11 Feb 2023 06:00 176 - - - - - - -
GREEN 22 11 Feb 2023 12:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 23 11 Feb 2023 18:00 220 - - - - - - -
GREEN 24 12 Feb 2023 00:00 220 - - - - - - -
GREEN 25 12 Feb 2023 06:00 191 - - - - - - -
GREEN 26 12 Feb 2023 12:00 180 - - - - - - -
GREEN 27 12 Feb 2023 18:00 202 - - - - - - -
GREEN 28 13 Feb 2023 00:00 198 - - - - - - -
GREEN 29 13 Feb 2023 06:00 166 - - - - - - -
GREEN 30 13 Feb 2023 12:00 158 - - - - - - -
GREEN 31 13 Feb 2023 18:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 32 14 Feb 2023 00:00 148 - - - - - - -
GREEN 33 14 Feb 2023 06:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 34 14 Feb 2023 12:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 35 14 Feb 2023 18:00 191 - - - - - - -
GREEN 36 15 Feb 2023 00:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 37 15 Feb 2023 06:00 223 - - - - - - -
GREEN 38 15 Feb 2023 12:00 234 - - - - - - -
GREEN 39 15 Feb 2023 18:00 245 - - - - - - -
GREEN 40 16 Feb 2023 00:00 245 - - - - - - -
GREEN 41 16 Feb 2023 06:00 256 - - - - - - -
GREEN 42 16 Feb 2023 12:00 227 - - - - - - -
GREEN 43 16 Feb 2023 18:00 230 - - - - - - -
GREEN 44 17 Feb 2023 00:00 223 - - - - - - -
GREEN 45 17 Feb 2023 06:00 220 - - - - - - -
GREEN 46 17 Feb 2023 12:00 220 - - - - - - -
GREEN 47 17 Feb 2023 18:00 216 - - - - - - -
GREEN 48 18 Feb 2023 00:00 223 - - - - - - -
GREEN 49 18 Feb 2023 06:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 50 18 Feb 2023 12:00 205 - - - - - - -
GREEN 51 18 Feb 2023 18:00 212 - - - - - - -
GREEN 52 19 Feb 2023 00:00 256 - - - - - - -
GREEN 53 19 Feb 2023 06:00 263 - - - - - - -
GREEN 54 19 Feb 2023 12:00 238 -
- - - - - Mauritius
GREEN 55 19 Feb 2023 18:00 256 -
- - - - - Mauritius
GREEN 56 20 Feb 2023 00:00 234 - - - - - - -
GREEN 57 20 Feb 2023 06:00 234 -
- - - - - Mauritius
GREEN 58 20 Feb 2023 12:00 216 -
- - - - - Mauritius, Reunion
GREEN 59 20 Feb 2023 18:00 216 -
- - - - - Reunion
GREEN 60 21 Feb 2023 00:00 212 80 thousand
- - - Madagascar, Reunion, Mozambique
Download:





Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

Rainfall





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 21 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmMadagascar236,504 
100-250 mmMadagascar2,564,487 
50-100 mmMadagascar, Reunion, Mozambique1,977,112
+
Madagascar1,953,705 
Reunion16,417 
Mozambique6,988 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert N° Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Feb 2023 06:00 253 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 06 Feb 2023 12:00 188 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 06 Feb 2023 18:00 210 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 07 Feb 2023 00:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Feb 2023 06:00 242 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 07 Feb 2023 12:00 340 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 07 Feb 2023 18:00 336 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 08 Feb 2023 00:00 284 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 08 Feb 2023 06:00 340 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 08 Feb 2023 12:00 307 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 08 Feb 2023 18:00 257 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 09 Feb 2023 00:00 164 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 09 Feb 2023 06:00 157 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 09 Feb 2023 12:00 148 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 09 Feb 2023 18:00 144 - - - - - - -
Blue 16 10 Feb 2023 00:00 159 - - - - - - -
Blue 17 10 Feb 2023 06:00 341 - - - - - - -
Blue 18 10 Feb 2023 12:00 152 - - - - - - -
Blue 19 10 Feb 2023 18:00 197 - - - - - - -
Blue 20 11 Feb 2023 00:00 292 - - - - - - -
Blue 21 11 Feb 2023 06:00 291 - - - - - - -
Blue 22 11 Feb 2023 12:00 333 - - - - - - -
Blue 23 11 Feb 2023 18:00 421 - - - - - - -
Blue 24 12 Feb 2023 00:00 386 - - - - - - -
Blue 25 12 Feb 2023 06:00 310 - - - - - - -
Blue 26 12 Feb 2023 12:00 332 - - - - - - -
Blue 27 12 Feb 2023 18:00 387 - - - - - - -
Blue 28 13 Feb 2023 00:00 271 - - - - - - -
Blue 29 13 Feb 2023 06:00 207 - - - - - - -
Blue 30 13 Feb 2023 12:00 218 - - - - - - -
Blue 31 13 Feb 2023 18:00 180 - - - - - - -
Blue 32 14 Feb 2023 00:00 157 - - - - - - -
Blue 33 14 Feb 2023 06:00 180 - - - - - - -
Blue 34 14 Feb 2023 12:00 154 - - - - - - -
Blue 35 14 Feb 2023 18:00 246 - - - - - - -
Blue 36 15 Feb 2023 00:00 252 - - - - - - -
Blue 37 15 Feb 2023 06:00 277 - - - - - - -
Blue 38 15 Feb 2023 12:00 302 - - - - - - -
Blue 39 15 Feb 2023 18:00 300 - - - - - - -
Blue 40 16 Feb 2023 00:00 259 - - - - - - -
Blue 41 16 Feb 2023 06:00 228 - - - - - - -
Blue 42 16 Feb 2023 12:00 246 - - - - - - -
Blue 43 16 Feb 2023 18:00 239 - - - - - - -
Blue 44 17 Feb 2023 00:00 225 - - - - - - -
Blue 45 17 Feb 2023 06:00 229 - - - - - - -
Blue 46 17 Feb 2023 12:00 226 - - - - - - -
Blue 47 17 Feb 2023 18:00 197 - - - - - - -
Blue 48 18 Feb 2023 00:00 265 - - - - - - -
Blue 49 18 Feb 2023 06:00 255 - - - - - - -
Blue 50 18 Feb 2023 12:00 307 - - - - - - -
Blue 51 18 Feb 2023 18:00 232 - - - - - - -
Blue 52 19 Feb 2023 00:00 228 - - - - - - -
Blue 53 19 Feb 2023 06:00 262 - - - - - - -
Blue 54 19 Feb 2023 12:00 185 - - - - - - -
Blue 55 19 Feb 2023 18:00 227 - - - - - - -
Blue 56 20 Feb 2023 00:00 211 - - - - - - -
Blue 57 20 Feb 2023 06:00 189 - - - - - - -
Blue 58 20 Feb 2023 12:00 206 Few people
- - - - Reunion
Blue 59 20 Feb 2023 18:00 223 3 thousand
- - - - Reunion
Blue 60 21 Feb 2023 00:00 417 2.8 million
- - - Madagascar, Reunion, Mozambique




Impact estimation for the next 72h
TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.3 m

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs


Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 21 Feb 2023 00:00 UTC