Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for ESTELLE-22 in Mexico from 15 Jul 2022 15:00 UTC to 21 Jul 2022 21:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for ESTELLE-22

in Mexico

18 Jul 2022 12 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ESTELLE-22 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	108 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.7 m (21 Jul 00:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Mexico)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	108 km/h	0.7 m	207 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	72 km/h	0.7 m	412 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

72 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jul 2022 12:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	04

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	15 Jul 2022 00:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	15 Jul 2022 12:00	50	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	16 Jul 2022 00:00	54	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	16 Jul 2022 12:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 Jul 2022 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 Jul 2022 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 Jul 2022 00:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 Jul 2022 12:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 Jul 2022 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	United States, Mexico, Guatemala	100,016	+
	United States	77,454
	Mexico	11,748
	Guatemala	10,813

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	15 Jul 2022 00:00	84	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico
2	15 Jul 2022 12:00	157	-		-	-	-	-	-	Guatemala
3	16 Jul 2022 00:00	146	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	16 Jul 2022 12:00	129	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 Jul 2022 00:00	205	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 Jul 2022 12:00	145	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 Jul 2022 00:00	185	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 Jul 2022 12:00	239	-		-	-	-	-	-	United States, Mexico, Guatemala

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

The calculations have been performed using NAMIDANCE computer code, from Middle East Technical University.
reference: Zaytsev, Andrey; Kurkin, Andrey; Pelinovsky, Efim; Yalciner, Ahmet C. - NUMERICAL TSUNAMI MODEL NAMI-DANCE. - Science of Tsunami Hazards . Nov2019, Vol. 38 Issue 4, p151-168. 18p.
Doaj

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Texas, Beach City, United States. This height is estimated for 16/07/2022 18:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 Jul 2022 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	16/07/2022 18:00	Texas, Beach City	United States	0.2
	16/07/2022 17:00	Texas, El Campo Club Community	United States	0.2
	16/07/2022 12:00	Texas, North Beach	United States	0.2
	15/07/2022 21:00	Louisiana, Cypremort Point	United States	0.2
	17/07/2022 22:00	Belize, Belize City	Belize	0.2
	17/07/2022 11:00	Corozal, Corozal	Belize	0.2
	17/07/2022 12:00	Quintana Roo, Calderita	Mexico	0.2
	16/07/2022 08:00	Toledo, Cattle Landing	Belize	0.2
	16/07/2022 20:00	Texas, Cedar Point	United States	0.2
	16/07/2022 14:00	Texas, Caruthers Cove Colonia	United States	0.2
	18/07/2022 00:00	Corozal, Santeneja	Belize	0.2
	16/07/2022 14:00	Texas, Port Ingleside	United States	0.2
	17/07/2022 23:00	Corozal, Ambergris Cay San Pedro	Belize	0.2
	17/07/2022 23:00	Corozal, Ambergris Cay Bacalar Chico	Belize	0.2
	17/07/2022 09:00	Baja California Sur, Puerto Charley	Mexico	0.2
	16/07/2022 20:00	Texas, Smith Point	United States	0.2
	17/07/2022 16:00	Quintana Roo, Vigia Chico	Mexico	0.2
	17/07/2022 23:00	Quintana Roo, Majahual	Mexico	0.2
	17/07/2022 23:00	Quintana Roo, El Placer	Mexico	0.2
	16/07/2022 15:00	Louisiana, Cameron	United States	0.2
	16/07/2022 20:00	Texas, Seabrook	United States	0.2
	17/07/2022 10:00	Sonora, La Choya	Mexico	0.2
	17/07/2022 11:00	Valle, Puerto Grande	Honduras	0.2
	17/07/2022 11:00	Valle, El Moray	Honduras	0.2
	17/07/2022 11:00	Valle, El Ajustillo	Honduras	0.2
	17/07/2022 11:00	Valle, Las Piletas	Honduras	0.2
	17/07/2022 14:00	Tamaulipas, El Mezquite	Mexico	0.2
	17/07/2022 11:00	Baja California, Puertecitos	Mexico	0.2
	15/07/2022 16:00	Texas, Caplen	United States	0.2
	15/07/2022 16:00	Texas, Gilchrist	United States	0.2
	17/07/2022 11:00	Valle, Gualora	Honduras	0.1
	17/07/2022 19:00	Escuintla, Sipacate	Guatemala	0.1
	15/07/2022 13:00	Campeche, Isla del Carmen Paso Real	Mexico	0.1
	17/07/2022 00:00	Chiapas, Pasito de la Senora	Mexico	0.1
	16/07/2022 18:00	Texas, Crystal Beach	United States	0.1
	16/07/2022 18:00	Texas, Patton	United States	0.1
	17/07/2022 19:00	Escuintla, El Naranjo	Guatemala	0.1
	17/07/2022 13:00	Sonora, Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	17/07/2022 12:00	Sinaloa, Las Arenitas	Mexico	0.1
	17/07/2022 20:00	Sonora, Guaymas	Mexico	0.1
	17/07/2022 13:00	Sonora, San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	16/07/2022 17:00	Texas, Galveston Island Jamaica Beach	United States	0.1
	17/07/2022 14:00	Alabama, Bellefontaine	United States	0.1
	15/07/2022 07:00	Baja California Sur, San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	17/07/2022 10:00	Leon, Linda Vista	Nicaragua	0.1
	17/07/2022 10:00	Oaxaca, Majada Villalobos	Mexico	0.1
	17/07/2022 19:00	Escuintla, La Barrita	Guatemala	0.1
	17/07/2022 21:00	Baja California Sur, Tripui	Mexico	0.1
	17/07/2022 18:00	Escuintla, San Jose	Guatemala	0.1
	17/07/2022 19:00	Santa Rosa, Papaturro	Guatemala	0.1
	17/07/2022 19:00	Escuintla, Iztapa	Guatemala	0.1
	17/07/2022 23:00	Baja California Sur, San Jose del Cabo	Mexico	0.1
	17/07/2022 14:00	Michoacan de Ocampo, Melchor Ocampo	Mexico	0.1
	17/07/2022 12:00	Oaxaca, Garrapateras	Mexico	0.1
	16/07/2022 17:00	Texas, Galveston Island Bay Harbor	United States	0.1
	17/07/2022 20:00	Baja California Sur, Punta Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	17/07/2022 20:00	Baja California Sur, Punta Arena	Mexico	0.1
	15/07/2022 16:00	Louisiana, Cocodrie	United States	0.1
	17/07/2022 23:00	Baja California Sur, El Tule	Mexico	0.1
	17/07/2022 20:00	Baja California Sur, Ensenada de los Muertos	Mexico	0.1
	17/07/2022 23:00	Baja California Sur, El Cardoncito	Mexico	0.1
	17/07/2022 12:00	Tamaulipas, El Porvenir	Mexico	0.1
	17/07/2022 11:00	Alabama, Bayleys Corner	United States	0.1
	17/07/2022 11:00	Alabama, Mon Louis	United States	0.1
	17/07/2022 23:00	Oaxaca, Bajos de Chila	Mexico	0.1
	17/07/2022 23:00	Oaxaca, Puerto Angel	Mexico	0.1
	16/07/2022 16:00	Texas, Quintana	United States	0.1
	17/07/2022 07:00	Mississippi, Edgewater Park	United States	0.1
	17/07/2022 07:00	Mississippi, Beauvoir	United States	0.1
	17/07/2022 07:00	Mississippi, Mississippi City	United States	0.1
	17/07/2022 07:00	Mississippi, Handsboro	United States	0.1
	16/07/2022 14:00	Tamaulipas, El Mezquital	Mexico	0.1
	17/07/2022 08:00	Mississippi, Bay St Louis	United States	0.1
	17/07/2022 08:00	Mississippi, Henderson Point	United States	0.1
	15/07/2022 09:00	Louisiana, North Side	United States	0.0
	15/07/2022 09:00	Louisiana, English Lookout	United States	0.0

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.