Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for MARIAN-21
in Cocos (Keeling) Islands,

Impact

Tropical Cyclone MARIAN-21 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 169 km/h
Maximum storm surge 0.2 m (06 Mar 05:45 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Cocos Is.)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
ECMWF Current 83 km/h 0.2 m 282 mm 0.5
ECMWF Overall 169 km/h 0.2 m 1111 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)



Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 04 Mar 2021 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 25 Feb 2021 12:00 72 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 26 Feb 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 26 Feb 2021 12:00 101 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 27 Feb 2021 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 27 Feb 2021 12:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 28 Feb 2021 00:00 115 - - - - - - -
GREEN 7 28 Feb 2021 12:00 169 - - - - - - -
GREEN 8 01 Mar 2021 00:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 9 01 Mar 2021 12:00 155 - - - - - - -
GREEN 10 02 Mar 2021 00:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 11 02 Mar 2021 12:00 119 - - - - - - -
GREEN 12 03 Mar 2021 00:00 94 - - - - - - -
GREEN 13 03 Mar 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 14 04 Mar 2021 00:00 79 - - - - - - -
GREEN 15 04 Mar 2021 12:00 83 - - - - - - -




Impact estimation for the next 72h
Download:

Rainfall

1111 mm

Up to Few people can be affected by rain higher than 100mm (see SSHS)





Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 04 Mar 2021 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
100-250 mmCocos (Keeling) Islands596 
50-100 mmChristmas Island1530 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 25 Feb 2021 12:00 252 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 26 Feb 2021 00:00 188 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 26 Feb 2021 12:00 246 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 27 Feb 2021 00:00 315 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 27 Feb 2021 12:00 295 - - - - - - -
Blue 6 28 Feb 2021 00:00 177 - - - - - - -
Blue 7 28 Feb 2021 12:00 345 - - - - - - -
Blue 8 01 Mar 2021 00:00 438 - - - - - - -
Blue 9 01 Mar 2021 12:00 406 - - - - - - -
Blue 10 02 Mar 2021 00:00 266 - - - - - - -
Blue 11 02 Mar 2021 12:00 261 - - - - - - -
Blue 12 03 Mar 2021 00:00 131 - - - - - - -
Blue 13 03 Mar 2021 12:00 130 - - - - - - -
Blue 14 04 Mar 2021 00:00 159 - - - - - - -
Blue 15 04 Mar 2021 12:00 282 -
- - - - - Cocos (Keeling) Islands




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  0.2m in The Settlement, Christmas Island. This height is estimated for 06 Mar 2021 05:45 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 04 Mar 2021 12:00 UTC (Overall situation)
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
06 Mar 2021 05:45 The Settlement Christmas Island  0.2
26 Feb 2021 18:45 West Island Cocos (Keeling) Islands  0.1
06 Mar 2021 09:30 South Point Christmas Island  0.1