Overall Orange Tropical Cyclone alert for ELOISE-21 in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands from 17 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC to 23 Jan 2021 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Orange alert Tropical Cyclone for ELOISE-21

in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Miscellaneous (French) Indian Ocean Islands

17 Jan 2021 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone ELOISE-21 can have a medium humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	76 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (17 Jan 15:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Mozambique)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	76 km/h	0.3 m	176 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	104 km/h	2.3 m	907 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

104 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 Jan 2021 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	17 Jan 2021 00:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 Jan 2021 12:00	86	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
500-750 mm	Mozambique	20,460
250-500 mm	Madagascar, Mozambique	224,225	+
	Madagascar	70,011
	Mozambique	154,214
100-250 mm	Madagascar, Malawi, Mozambique, Zimbabwe	3,306,313	+
	Malawi	80,165
	Madagascar	2,159,332
	Mozambique	1,030,754
	Zimbabwe	36,062
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe	7,044,420	+
	Tanzania	108,532
	Zambia	33,035
	Malawi	637,951
	Madagascar	2,976,604
	Mozambique	2,110,576
	Zimbabwe	1,177,722

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 Jan 2021 12:00	179	-	-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Mozambique, South Africa
2	17 Jan 2021 00:00	390	80 thousand			-	-	-	Zimbabwe, South Africa, Mozambique
3	17 Jan 2021 12:00	581	3.6 million				-	-	Tanzania, Zambia, Malawi, Madagascar, Mozambique, Zimbabwe

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Ampasina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 17 Jan 2021 15:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 Jan 2021 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.3
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.3
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.3
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.3
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.3
	17 Jan 2021 15:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.3
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.3
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.3
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Manompana	Madagascar	0.3
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.3
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.3
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.3
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:15	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Singalana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Ankinganifahatelo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:15	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Antetikireja	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:15	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:30	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:30	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:30	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.2
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Induna	Mozambique	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 21:15	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 21:15	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 21:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:30	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 12:30	Beula	Mozambique	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 12:30	Morrumbene	Mozambique	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 12:30	Mabsil	Mozambique	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 12:30	Marivate	Mozambique	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 13:00	Bejongoro	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 13:00	Ampandrano	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 13:00	Andrafialava	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 13:00	Mandrony	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 13:00	Maromanjo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 13:00	Anompaka	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 13:00	Madirotelo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 13:00	Mahitsihazo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 13:00	Andamoty	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 13:00	Marokitrana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 13:00	Bevoay	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 13:00	Maromandia	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 23:30	Vila Luisa	Mozambique	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 23:30	D'lhelo	Mozambique	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 23:30	Linchica	Mozambique	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:30	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.2
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:30	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 13:45	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 13:45	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 13:45	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 13:45	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:30	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:30	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:30	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:30	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:30	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:30	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:30	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:15	Ampanotoamaizina	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:15	Tampina	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:15	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:15	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Guiducua	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 20:45	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 20:45	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 20:45	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 20:45	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 20:45	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 20:45	Moraharivo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 20:45	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:15	Manomba	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:15	Belailay	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:15	Ankatrafay	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:15	Antandrokomby	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:30	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:30	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:30	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:30	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 20:30	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 20:30	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:15	Farafangana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:15	Loharano	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:30	Contra Costa	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:30	Jacob	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:30	Chavanine	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Ambatomainty	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Manehoko	Madagascar	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Ambanhe	Mozambique	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Metambanhe	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:15	Andopitaly	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:15	Antohgo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:00	Antanimandry	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:00	Anjabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:00	Andranomena	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:15	Ambozaka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:15	Andramasay	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:15	Antanambao Samaka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:15	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Natalia	Mozambique	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Inhassoro	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:00	Analalava	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Onara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Ambalanosy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Ankaratravitra	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:00	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 20:30	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 20:30	Tanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 20:30	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:15	Gueima	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 15:15	Ampataka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 15:15	Amboboka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 15:15	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 15:15	Tsivala	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 15:15	Manambotra	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:00	Nangalete	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:00	Mahupe	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:45	Gafaria	Mozambique	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Zavo	Madagascar	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Lavanono	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:00	Tambohorano	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:00	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:00	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:45	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:45	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Tama	Mozambique	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Jonja	Mozambique	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Bingue	Mozambique	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Rupia	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Talaky	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Iambaro	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Ambazoamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Ambazoa	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Ankazomanitsy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:45	Machavene	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:45	Belo-sur-Mer	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:45	Marofihitsa	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:45	Ambararata	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:45	Ankevo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:45	Ankiliabo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:15	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:15	Ankarefo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 15:15	Ampary	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:30	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:15	Maintirano	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:15	Andemba	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 15:15	Antavy Atsimo	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:15	Siane	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Ankarimbary	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Savana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:00	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:45	Maconharumo	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Befasy	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Akondro	Madagascar	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Laisse	Mozambique	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Dinguiduane	Mozambique	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Jo	Mozambique	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Bartolomeu Dias	Mozambique	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Machesse	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:45	Macashale	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:45	Macanzele	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:30	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:30	Manakambahiny	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:30	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:30	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:30	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Beaniky	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:45	Manambondro	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 15:00	Esanta	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 21:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:45	Miquindane	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:45	Lurio	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:45	Mauala	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:45	Arire	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 23:45	Nova Sofala	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:00	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:00	Ambila-Lemaitso	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 14:00	Vavony	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 20:30	Fadrina	Madagascar	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 20:30	Bobasakoa	Madagascar	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Bambe	Mozambique	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Maguemba	Mozambique	0.1
	17 Jan 2021 22:15	Ampanihy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 Jan 2021 00:00	Ampara	Mozambique	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.