Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for CHALANE-20 in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Botswana from 24 Dec 2020 18:00 UTC to 30 Dec 2020 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for CHALANE-20

in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, Madagascar, Botswana

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone CHALANE-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	HWRF
Exposed countries	Madagascar
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	97 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (26 Dec 01:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Madagascar)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
HWRF Current	97 km/h	0.5 m	27 mm	0.5
HWRF Overall	155 km/h	1.3 m	451 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

155 km/h

Up to 50 thousand can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Dec 2020 00:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Madagascar	54,624

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	24 Dec 2020 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	25 Dec 2020 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	25 Dec 2020 06:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	25 Dec 2020 12:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Dec 2020 18:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	26 Dec 2020 00:00	108	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 26 Dec 2020 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
500-750 mm	Madagascar	10
250-500 mm	Madagascar	217,328
100-250 mm	Madagascar	5,629,535
50-100 mm	Madagascar	2,514,588

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	24 Dec 2020 18:00	0	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	25 Dec 2020 00:00	22	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	25 Dec 2020 06:00	20	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	25 Dec 2020 12:00	18	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	25 Dec 2020 18:00	23	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	26 Dec 2020 00:00	786	5.8 million					-	-	Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Manakalana, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 26 Dec 2020 01:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 26 Dec 2020 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	26 Dec 2020 01:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.5
	26 Dec 2020 01:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.5
	26 Dec 2020 01:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.5
	26 Dec 2020 01:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.5
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.4
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.4
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.4
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.4
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.4
	26 Dec 2020 01:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.4
	26 Dec 2020 01:15	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.4
	26 Dec 2020 01:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.4
	26 Dec 2020 01:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.4
	26 Dec 2020 01:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.4
	26 Dec 2020 01:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.3
	26 Dec 2020 01:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.3
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.3
	26 Dec 2020 01:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.3
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.3
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.3
	26 Dec 2020 03:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 03:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 03:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 03:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 03:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 03:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 03:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 03:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 02:30	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 02:30	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 03:15	Manakara	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 03:15	Loharano	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 06:00	Antunes	Mozambique	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 06:00	Chamba	Mozambique	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 06:00	Beira	Mozambique	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 06:00	Damiao	Mozambique	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 03:15	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 03:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 03:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:45	Vohitramposina	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:45	Ampitabe	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:45	Amboditafara	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:45	Kalomalala	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 02:45	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 06:00	Ambanhe	Mozambique	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 02:45	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:45	Ampondrabe	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:45	Lokia	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:45	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 02:45	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	Namahoaka	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:45	Ambila-Lemaitso	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:45	Vavony	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 06:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 06:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 06:00	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 02:00	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 02:00	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 06:00	Manica	Mozambique	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 04:30	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:15	Ampara	Mozambique	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:15	Nova Sofala	Mozambique	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 02:45	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 02:30	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 03:45	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:00	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:30	Metambanhe	Mozambique	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:30	Chiloane	Mozambique	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:00	Divinhe	Mozambique	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 04:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 04:00	Marovazha	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 04:00	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 04:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 04:00	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 02:45	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 04:00	Ampanotoamaizina	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 02:30	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Nyambati	Tanzania	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Salale	Tanzania	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Marovato	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Ampasibe	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Analalava	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Androlavy	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Ananalava	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:00	Taratasy	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:00	Foulpointe	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Bevatry	Madagascar	0.2
	26 Dec 2020 05:15	Ratsianarana	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 05:15	Ambodivato	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 05:15	Ambohitralanana	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 02:30	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 02:30	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 02:30	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:30	Marofinaritra	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:30	Mahatsara	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:30	Ambodihariha	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:30	Tamatave	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:30	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:30	Ambatoharana	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:30	Vinanivao	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:30	Anaovandrano	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:30	Anjanozana	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:15	Antetezambaro	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:00	Ankoakala	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:00	Manampea	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:00	Antsafy	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:00	Onara	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	Ambinanysahavary	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:15	Ankazobe	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 02:45	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Antanifatsy	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Mahatsaborimaika	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Mangaoka	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Ilomotro	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Andranotsara	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Antsisikala	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Antsahalalina	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Ambodiadabo	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	Vila Luisa	Mozambique	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	D'lhelo	Mozambique	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:30	Itenina	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 02:45	Mahabo	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 02:45	Tsinjorano	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 02:45	Ampasitsilavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 05:30	Nhangau	Mozambique	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 05:30	Chofandicho	Mozambique	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 02:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 02:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 02:00	Ambalabao	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 03:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 03:00	Ampasimpilily	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Magromane	Mozambique	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:15	Tampina	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 06:00	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 06:00	Vohitsara	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:15	Ankirijibe	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Masokoamena	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Katsepy	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Majunga	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Boanamary	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Ampitilova	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Moraharivo	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Antsianitia	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Ambondrombe	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:30	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:30	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:30	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:30	Mdudu Mdogo	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:30	Dikoni	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:30	Chwaka	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:30	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:30	Pingwe	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:00	Ampaha	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:00	Andrapengy	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:00	Ambinany	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:00	Antalaha	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:30	Marosiky	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:30	Seranandavitra	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:30	Maintinandry	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:30	Vatomandry	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:30	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:30	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:30	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:30	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:30	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 02:15	Laisse	Mozambique	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 02:15	Dinguiduane	Mozambique	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 02:15	Natalia	Mozambique	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 02:15	Inhassoro	Mozambique	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:00	Ambatomilahy	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:00	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:00	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:00	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:00	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:00	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:00	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:15	Kilwa Kivinje	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:15	Mtanga	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 05:15	Befasy	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 05:15	Akondro	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:15	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:15	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:15	Tanga	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Antsahampano	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Ambohimena	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Ambaliha	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 00:00	Antanamazava	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	Nosy-Varika	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	Ambinanivolo	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	Ambalavontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 04:45	Masomeloka	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 02:45	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 02:45	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Somanga	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:45	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:00	Magawa	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 05:45	Ambatoharanana	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 05:45	Antanambao	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 05:45	Andrafiamadinika	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 05:45	Ampondra	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 05:45	Vohemar	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 05:45	Amboanio	Madagascar	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:00	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:00	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:00	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:00	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	26 Dec 2020 01:00	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.