Overall Red Tropical Cyclone alert for AMPHAN-20 in India, Bangladesh, Bhutan from 16 May 2020 06:00 UTC to 20 May 2020 12:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Red alert Tropical Cyclone for AMPHAN-20

in India, Bangladesh, Bhutan

15 May 2020 12 UTC

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to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone AMPHAN-20 can have a high humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	76 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (15 May 18:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	High (Bangladesh)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	76 km/h	0.4 m	242 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	166 km/h	2.5 m	658 mm	1.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

166 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 15 May 2020 12:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
	1	15 May 2020 12:00	155	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 15 May 2020 12:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Bhutan, Nepal, India	231,785	+
	India	231,498
	Bhutan	170
	Nepal	117
50-100 mm	India, Burma, Bhutan, Nepal, China, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand	8,857,198	+
	India	7,076,770
	Burma	1,847
	Bhutan	134,809
	Nepal	133,914
	China	28
	Bangladesh	1,509,609
	Sri Lanka	114
	Thailand	107

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

Alert	N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
	1	15 May 2020 12:00	616	230 thousand			-	-	-	-	India, Burma, Bhutan, Nepal, China, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Thailand

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Gangra, India. This height is estimated for 15 May 2020 18:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 15 May 2020 12:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	15 May 2020 18:30	Gangra	India	0.4
	15 May 2020 18:30	Kakdwip	India	0.4
	15 May 2020 18:30	Namkhana	India	0.4
	15 May 2020 18:30	Belpukur	India	0.4
	15 May 2020 18:30	Dublat	India	0.3
	15 May 2020 16:45	Bijavbati	India	0.2
	15 May 2020 15:45	Digha	India	0.2
	15 May 2020 15:45	Ramnagar	India	0.2
	15 May 2020 22:15	Kalipur	Bangladesh	0.2
	15 May 2020 22:15	Bara Patharghata	Bangladesh	0.2
	15 May 2020 22:15	Jnanpara	Bangladesh	0.2
	15 May 2020 22:15	Chhota Nishanbaria Chak	Bangladesh	0.2
	15 May 2020 22:15	Dhalua	Bangladesh	0.2
	15 May 2020 22:15	Bara Bagi	Bangladesh	0.2
	15 May 2020 22:15	Chhota Bagi	Bangladesh	0.2
	15 May 2020 22:15	Mahipur	Bangladesh	0.2
	15 May 2020 22:15	Chandkhali	Bangladesh	0.2
	15 May 2020 22:15	Burir Char	Bangladesh	0.2
	15 May 2020 22:15	Kachupatra	Bangladesh	0.2
	15 May 2020 22:15	Arpangasia	Bangladesh	0.2
	15 May 2020 22:15	Bara Baliatali	Bangladesh	0.2
	15 May 2020 22:15	Kalapara	Bangladesh	0.2
	15 May 2020 20:15	Kuakata	Bangladesh	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:30	Kelambakkam	India	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:30	Saint Thomas Mount	India	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:30	Madhavaram	India	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:30	Chennai	India	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:00	Shwe-o	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:00	Alanbya	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:00	Mokkamu	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:00	Boyagyi	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:00	Kyaikto	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:00	Kyaikpi	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:00	Kawbein	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:15	Damathat	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:00	Pauktaw	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:00	Zokali	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:00	Taungxun	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 17:00	Karaikal	India	0.1
	15 May 2020 17:00	Accarapatam	India	0.1
	15 May 2020 17:00	Velangann	India	0.1
	15 May 2020 17:00	Nagappattinam	India	0.1
	15 May 2020 19:15	Dubla	Bangladesh	0.1
	15 May 2020 23:30	Char Kalmi	Bangladesh	0.1
	15 May 2020 23:30	Char Manika	Bangladesh	0.1
	15 May 2020 23:30	Char Kukuri Mukuri	Bangladesh	0.1
	15 May 2020 23:30	Ar Kalmi	Bangladesh	0.1
	15 May 2020 23:30	Char Aicha	Bangladesh	0.1
	15 May 2020 23:30	Char Paila	Bangladesh	0.1
	15 May 2020 17:45	Taunggyi	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 17:45	Budin	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 17:45	Kadaik	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 17:45	Donwun	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:30	Thamaseikta	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:00	Kangyisu	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 16:15	Kayts	Sri Lanka	0.1
	15 May 2020 16:15	Jaffna	Sri Lanka	0.1
	15 May 2020 16:15	Kankesanturai	Sri Lanka	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:30	Tanbingyaung	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:30	Khindan	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:30	Darein	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:30	Paung	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 16:00	Anaitivu	Sri Lanka	0.1
	15 May 2020 16:00	Ammanthanaveli	Sri Lanka	0.1
	15 May 2020 16:00	Arukarkudah	Sri Lanka	0.1
	15 May 2020 20:00	Chakicherla	India	0.1
	15 May 2020 20:00	Vatturupallepalem	India	0.1
	15 May 2020 14:15	Tirumullaivasal	India	0.1
	15 May 2020 14:15	Kaveripattanam	India	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:30	Munaing	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:30	Tagukana	Myanmar	0.1
	15 May 2020 18:30	Kawpamagon	Myanmar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.