Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for DAMIEN-20
in Australia

Impact

Tropical Cyclone DAMIEN-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source GFS
Exposed countries Australia
Exposed population 20 thousand in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed 155 km/h
Maximum storm surge 2.6 m (08 Feb 05:30 UTC)
Vulnerability Low (Australia)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.
  Wind Storm surge Rainfall GDACS score
GFS Current 104 km/h 0.3 m 238 mm 0.5
GFS Overall 155 km/h 2.6 m 385 mm 0.5

Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

Wind

155 km/h

Up to 20 thousand in Category 1 strength or higher (see SSHS)



Wind exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)
CategoryCountryPopulation 
CAT. 1Australia24151 
Tropical StormAustralia24316 

See TC classification SSHS


Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Winds (km/h) Pop in Cat. 1 or higher TS Cat. 1 Cat. 2 Cat. 3 Cat. 4 Cat. 5 Countries
GREEN 1 06 Feb 2020 00:00 68 - - - - - - -
GREEN 2 06 Feb 2020 06:00 86 - - - - - - -
GREEN 3 06 Feb 2020 12:00 83 - - - - - - -
GREEN 4 06 Feb 2020 18:00 97 - - - - - - -
GREEN 5 07 Feb 2020 00:00 112 - - - - - - -
GREEN 6 07 Feb 2020 06:00 119 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 7 07 Feb 2020 12:00 119 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 8 07 Feb 2020 18:00 148 -
- - - - - Australia
GREEN 9 08 Feb 2020 00:00 140 20 thousand
- - - - Australia
GREEN 10 08 Feb 2020 06:00 155 20 thousand
- - - - Australia
GREEN 11 08 Feb 2020 12:00 137 Few people
- - - - Australia
GREEN 12 08 Feb 2020 18:00 104 -
- - - - - Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h





Rain exposed population

Estimations based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)
LevelCountryPopulation 
250-500 mmAustralia7 
100-250 mmIndonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia10900968
+
Indonesia10635092 
Timor-Leste235446 
Australia30430 
50-100 mmIndonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia23229131
+
Indonesia22310279 
Timor-Leste899567 
Australia19285 

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000
10000< people affected <=100000
people affected >100000


Alert Date (UTC) Max Rainfall (mm) Pop >100mm or higher 50-100 100-250 250-500 500-750 750-1000 >1000 Countries
Blue 1 06 Feb 2020 00:00 69 - - - - - - -
Blue 2 06 Feb 2020 06:00 195 - - - - - - -
Blue 3 06 Feb 2020 12:00 149 - - - - - - -
Blue 4 06 Feb 2020 18:00 100 - - - - - - -
Blue 5 07 Feb 2020 00:00 121 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 6 07 Feb 2020 06:00 95 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 7 07 Feb 2020 12:00 129 -
- - - - - Indonesia
Blue 8 07 Feb 2020 18:00 160 Few people
- - - - Indonesia, Australia
Blue 9 08 Feb 2020 00:00 125 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 10 08 Feb 2020 06:00 162 4 thousand
- - - - Australia
Blue 11 08 Feb 2020 12:00 122 Few people
- - - - Australia
Blue 12 08 Feb 2020 18:00 238 230 thousand
- - - - Indonesia, Timor-Leste, Australia




Impact estimation for the next 72h

StormSurge

2.6 m

The maximum Storm surge height is  2.6m in Dampier, Australia. This height is estimated for 08 Feb 2020 05:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Calculation based on the bulletin of 08 Feb 2020 18:00 UTC (Overall situation)
Alert Date (UTC) Name Country Storm surge height (m)
08 Feb 2020 05:30 Dampier Australia  2.6
08 Feb 2020 05:30 Karratha Australia  2.6
08 Feb 2020 05:30 East Lewis I Australia  1.6
08 Feb 2020 05:15 Wickham Australia  1.5
08 Feb 2020 05:15 Point Samson Australia  1.5
08 Feb 2020 05:15 Cossack Australia  1.5
08 Feb 2020 03:00 Ah Chong I Australia  0.7
08 Feb 2020 02:00 Port Hedland Australia  0.6
06 Feb 2020 09:45 Derby Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2020 06:00 Condon Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2020 06:30 Pardoo Australia  0.4
07 Feb 2020 14:30 Mardie Australia  0.4
06 Feb 2020 13:30 Albany Australia  0.4
06 Feb 2020 13:30 Emu Point Australia  0.4
06 Feb 2020 08:45 Derby Australia  0.4
06 Feb 2020 09:15 Thangoo Australia  0.3
06 Feb 2020 04:00 Pender Australia  0.3
06 Feb 2020 17:45 Kennedys Cottage Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2020 17:45 Waterbank Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2020 17:45 Broome Australia  0.2
06 Feb 2020 05:00 Kollan I Australia  0.2
08 Feb 2020 01:30 Onslow Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2020 05:30 Oakdale Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 07:30 Denmark Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 07:30 Youngs Australia  0.1
09 Feb 2020 23:30 Eyre Australia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 12:30 Komodo Indonesia  0.1
10 Feb 2020 05:00 Thundulda Australia  0.1
07 Feb 2020 05:45 Minarup Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 06:00 Glenroy Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 07:15 Parryville Australia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 04:45 Kencong Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 04:45 Lodjedjer Indonesia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:30 Jerdacuttup Australia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 09:00 Muntjar Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 09:00 Blimbing Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 09:00 Dadapan Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 09:00 Banyuwangi Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 09:00 Banjuwangi Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 09:00 Gilimanuk Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 09:00 Penginoeman Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 09:00 Belimbingsari Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 09:00 Tjandikesuma Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 09:00 Banjoebiroe Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 09:00 Cupel Indonesia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 12:30 Hopetoun Australia  0.1
08 Feb 2020 07:00 Exmouth Australia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 08:45 Lenteng Indonesia  0.1
06 Feb 2020 08:45 Rinca Indonesia  0.1
09 Feb 2020 05:00 Learmonth Australia  0.1

Calculation folder at this link