Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for KARINA-20 Off-shore from 13 Sep 2020 03:00 UTC to 17 Sep 2020 03:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for KARINA-20

Off-shore

13 Sep 2020 18 UTC

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Meteorological source:

GDACS NOAA

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone KARINA-20 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries	Mexico
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	72 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.5 m (13 Sep 23:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	--

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	72 km/h	0.5 m	105 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	90 km/h	0.5 m	339 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

90 km/h

Up to Few people can be affected by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Sep 2020 18:00 UTC

Category	Country	Population
Tropical Storm	Mexico	227

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5	Countries
1	13 Sep 2020 00:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Sep 2020 06:00	65	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	13 Sep 2020 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	13 Sep 2020 18:00	72	-		-	-	-	-	-	Mexico

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Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 13 Sep 2020 18:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Mexico	1,138
50-100 mm	Mexico	231,991

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	13 Sep 2020 00:00	136	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	13 Sep 2020 06:00	62	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	13 Sep 2020 12:00	77	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	13 Sep 2020 18:00	315	1 thousand			-	-	-	-	Mexico

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.5 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.5m in Puerto Venustiano Carranza, Mexico. This height is estimated for 13 Sep 2020 23:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 13 Sep 2020 18:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	13 Sep 2020 23:15	Puerto Venustiano Carranza	Mexico	0.5
	13 Sep 2020 23:00	Desembarcadero de Miller	Mexico	0.4
	13 Sep 2020 22:45	Bahia de Tortugas	Mexico	0.4
	13 Sep 2020 22:45	Cedros	Mexico	0.3
	13 Sep 2020 23:00	Isla Natividad	Mexico	0.3
	13 Sep 2020 22:00	Puerto Cortes	Mexico	0.3
	13 Sep 2020 22:00	El Guatamota	Mexico	0.3
	13 Sep 2020 20:15	Cuantla	Mexico	0.3
	13 Sep 2020 20:15	Cuamecate	Mexico	0.3
	13 Sep 2020 22:00	Puerto Magdalena	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 22:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 22:00	Madero Amarillo	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 20:15	Santa Cruz	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 20:15	Novillero	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 20:15	El Nuevo	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	San Rafael	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 20:15	Toro Mocho	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	San Bruno	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 19:00	San Juan de la Costa	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 18:30	Bahia Kino	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 20:15	Isla de Palmito del Verde	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 20:00	Caimanero	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 20:00	Jarilla	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 20:00	La Puerta	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 19:45	Aguaje	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 19:15	Datilito	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 19:15	La Paz	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 19:15	Rosario	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	El Barril	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 20:00	La Palmita	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 21:15	Ojo de Liebre	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 19:30	Topolobampo	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 19:30	Cachoana	Mexico	0.2
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	Tecomate	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	Agua de las Flores	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	Cabo Tepoca	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	Tastiota	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	El Desemboque	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	Puerto Libertad	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	Guasimas	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:15	Mulege	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:15	Los Dolores	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 19:00	Boca del Rio	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	San Jose	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	Atanacio	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	El Paredoncito	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:15	Guaymas	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:15	Empalme	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	San Carlos	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:30	Borabampo	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:15	Santa Marta	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	San Ignacio	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 19:00	La Playa Colorada	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:45	San Cosme	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	Santa Rosalia	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:15	Liliba	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:00	San Juanico	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:15	Loreto	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 18:15	Ligui	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 22:00	Buenaventura	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 22:00	Agua del Coyote	Mexico	0.1
	13 Sep 2020 20:30	Los Burros	Mexico	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.