Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

20 May 2024 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	90 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.3 m (21 May 10:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	90 km/h	0.3 m	267 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	0.4 m	731 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 20 May 2024 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 May 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	18 May 2024 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	19 May 2024 00:00	108	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	19 May 2024 12:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	20 May 2024 00:00	112	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 20 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
50-100 mm	Tanzania, Comoros, Madagascar	865,667	+
	Tanzania	610,376
	Other countries	26
	Comoros	18,119
	Madagascar	237,145

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 00:00	349	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	177	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 12:00	214	4 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Other countries
5	18 May 2024 00:00	275	60 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar
6	18 May 2024 12:00	447	150 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar, Other countries
7	19 May 2024 00:00	482	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	19 May 2024 12:00	418	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
9	20 May 2024 00:00	735	-		-	-	-	-	-	Tanzania, Other countries, Comoros, Madagascar

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.3 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.3m in Voloina, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 21 May 2024 10:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 20 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	21 May 2024 10:15	Voloina	Madagascar	0.3
	21 May 2024 10:15	Manambia	Madagascar	0.3
	21 May 2024 10:15	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.3
	21 May 2024 10:15	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.3
	21 May 2024 10:15	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	21 May 2024 10:15	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.3
	21 May 2024 10:30	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.3
	21 May 2024 10:15	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.3
	21 May 2024 10:30	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 16:45	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.2
	20 May 2024 22:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 22:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 22:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 22:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	22 May 2024 17:30	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	22 May 2024 17:30	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	22 May 2024 17:30	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:15	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	21 May 2024 14:00	Kipini	Kenya	0.2
	22 May 2024 17:45	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 22:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 22:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 22:15	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 22:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	20 May 2024 17:00	Sadani	Tanzania	0.2
	20 May 2024 16:30	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.2
	20 May 2024 16:30	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.2
	20 May 2024 16:30	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.2
	21 May 2024 10:15	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:30	Ocone	Mozambique	0.1
	20 May 2024 16:15	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 16:15	Doriya	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:30	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:30	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:30	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:30	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:30	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:00	Bumbwini	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:00	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 04:45	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	20 May 2024 04:45	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	20 May 2024 16:30	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 16:30	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 16:30	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 10:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 09:15	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:00	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:00	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:00	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:30	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 16:45	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:00	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:15	Gongoni	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:15	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:00	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:00	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:00	Vanga	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:00	Majoreni	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:00	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:00	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 03:45	Kitogani	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 03:45	Kijini	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 03:45	Mkunguni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 03:45	Ukongoroni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 03:45	Paje	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 03:45	Kipandoni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 03:45	Hiari	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 03:45	Tongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 16:45	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 16:45	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 16:45	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:15	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 16:00	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 15:45	Somanga	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 15:45	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 15:45	Jaja	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:15	Marofototra	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 10:45	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 10:45	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 10:45	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 10:45	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 10:45	Tanga	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:15	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 22:15	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 04:15	Victoria	Seychelles	0.1
	20 May 2024 04:15	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1
	20 May 2024 10:45	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 10:45	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 10:45	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 10:45	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 10:45	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:15	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 16:15	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 16:45	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 16:45	Gulioni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:15	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:15	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:15	Nyambati	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:15	Salale	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:15	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 16:15	Uzi	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 16:15	Mapopwe	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:15	Inhangulue	Mozambique	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:15	Mendozo	Mozambique	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:15	Magromane	Mozambique	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:00	Kawi	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:00	Konduchi	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:00	Kipara	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:00	Dar es Salaam	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:00	Msasani	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:00	Magogoni	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:00	Mjimwema	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:00	Mboamaji	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:00	Bandarini	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 11:00	Kutani	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 14:45	Magawa	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:30	Tomodo	Mozambique	0.1
	20 May 2024 16:00	Mbwera	Tanzania	0.1
	20 May 2024 15:45	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.1
	22 May 2024 17:30	Belavenoka	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 08:45	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 08:45	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 08:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	21 May 2024 08:45	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:15	Kiongwe	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:15	Makowe	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:15	Matondoni	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:15	Amu	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:15	Lamu	Kenya	0.1
	20 May 2024 17:15	Kililana	Kenya	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.