Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	76 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (18 May 11:30 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	76 km/h	0.2 m	162 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	148 km/h	0.4 m	705 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

148 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 06:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	18 May 2024 06:00	83	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 06:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	35,542
100-250 mm	Madagascar	289,546
50-100 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	509,313	+
	Seychelles	61
	Madagascar	509,108
	Other countries	143

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	62	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
7	18 May 2024 00:00	112	Few people			-	-	-	-	Madagascar
8	18 May 2024 06:00	507	330 thousand				-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar, Other countries

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Anantoraka, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18 May 2024 11:30 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 06:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 May 2024 11:30	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:30	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:30	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:30	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:30	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 09:00	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	18 May 2024 09:00	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	18 May 2024 09:00	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:30	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:30	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:30	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:45	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:45	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 07:15	Victoria	Seychelles	0.2
	18 May 2024 07:15	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:00	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 11:45	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:45	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:45	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:30	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:30	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:30	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:30	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:30	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:30	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:30	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:30	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:30	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 12:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:45	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:45	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:45	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:45	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:45	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:45	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:45	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:45	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:45	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:45	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:00	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:00	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 11:45	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:45	Antsikafoka	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:45	Mahambo	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 09:30	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:30	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 12:00	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:00	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Ampombilava	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Andriana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Ambatoxavavy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Andrafia	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Anjiabe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Ambolikapika	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Nosy Faly	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Ambato	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 11:30	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 11:30	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 11:30	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 11:30	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 11:30	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 11:30	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Ankaranakatra	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Marovoha	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Ampitily	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Ambalatsingy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Ankinganomby	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Antaribao	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Anjiajia	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Ambodibonara	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Tsaratanana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 10:15	Ampasindava	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:45	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:45	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:45	Nyambati	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:45	Salale	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:45	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:15	Magawa	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 11:15	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 09:30	Ocone	Mozambique	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.