Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	94 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (18 May 03:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	94 km/h	0.2 m	112 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	148 km/h	0.4 m	705 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

148 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	18 May 2024 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
250-500 mm	Madagascar	26,711
100-250 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	400,145	+
	Seychelles	02
	Madagascar	400,142
50-100 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	517,644	+
	Seychelles	58
	Madagascar	517,585

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	102	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 06:00	21	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	17 May 2024 12:00	30	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	17 May 2024 18:00	62	-		-	-	-	-	-	Madagascar
7	18 May 2024 00:00	357	430 thousand				-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar, Other countries

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Ampasimbe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 18 May 2024 03:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 18 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	18 May 2024 03:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 03:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 03:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 03:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 03:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 03:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 03:15	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 03:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 03:15	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.2
	18 May 2024 03:15	Mulia	Mozambique	0.2
	18 May 2024 03:15	Barra	Mozambique	0.2
	18 May 2024 00:30	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 00:30	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 00:30	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 00:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 00:30	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 05:30	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 03:15	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 00:15	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 00:15	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 00:15	Vanga	Kenya	0.2
	18 May 2024 00:15	Majoreni	Kenya	0.2
	18 May 2024 00:15	Ramisi	Kenya	0.2
	18 May 2024 00:15	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:00	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:00	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 06:00	Doriya	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 05:45	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 05:45	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 03:15	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 03:15	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 05:45	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 05:45	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	18 May 2024 00:45	Gongoni	Kenya	0.2
	18 May 2024 00:45	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.2
	18 May 2024 00:45	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.2
	18 May 2024 05:45	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 03:15	Ocone	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 03:15	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 03:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 03:15	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 03:45	Victoria	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 03:45	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 03:15	Quelimane do Sal	Mozambique	0.1
	18 May 2024 03:45	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:30	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:30	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:45	Rantranavona	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:30	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:30	Anoromby	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 04:00	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 03:15	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:30	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:30	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:30	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:45	Fampotabe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:00	Manambolosy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:00	Fahambahy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:00	Andilamboahangy	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:00	Mananara	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:00	Ambatofitarafana	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:00	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:00	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:15	Kipini	Kenya	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:30	Kibele	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 03:00	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 05:30	Bet-el-Mali	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 01:00	Magawa	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 01:00	Dondo	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 01:00	Kisiju	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 01:00	Mpafu	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Chumbuni	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Taandani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Chekea	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Uchangani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Temi	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Chake	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Kijichame	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Jojo	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Kitwea	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Dutani	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Hurumuzi	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:30	Vumba	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 00:45	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 02:45	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 02:45	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 02:45	Manambato	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 02:45	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 02:30	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:00	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:00	Mchungu	Tanzania	0.1
	18 May 2024 06:00	Kiombani	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.