Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

19 May 2024 00 UTC

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

GFS
HWRF
ECMWF

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	ECMWF
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	108 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.2 m (19 May 10:15 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
ECMWF Current	108 km/h	0.2 m	482 mm	0.5
ECMWF Overall	68 km/h	0.4 m	731 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

TOP

Wind

68 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 12:00	72	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	18 May 2024 00:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	18 May 2024 12:00	79	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	19 May 2024 00:00	119	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Comoros	723
50-100 mm	Comoros, Madagascar	171,450	+
	Comoros	38,482
	Madagascar	132,949
	Other countries	18

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 00:00	349	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 12:00	396	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	177	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	17 May 2024 12:00	214	4 thousand			-	-	-	-	Madagascar, Other countries
5	18 May 2024 00:00	275	60 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar
6	18 May 2024 12:00	447	150 thousand				-	-	-	Madagascar, Other countries
7	19 May 2024 00:00	908	Few people			-	-	-	-	Comoros, Madagascar, Other countries

Impact estimation for the next 72h

TOP

StormSurge

0.2 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.2m in Bagamoyo, Tanzania. This height is estimated for 19 May 2024 10:15 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 19 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	19 May 2024 10:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 10:15	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 10:15	Doriya	Tanzania	0.2
	19 May 2024 10:15	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 10:15	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 10:15	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 10:15	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 10:15	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 10:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 09:45	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:45	Voloina	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:45	Manambia	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:45	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:45	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:45	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:45	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:30	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:30	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 04:30	Benjana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:45	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:45	Mulia	Mozambique	0.1
	19 May 2024 05:45	Barra	Mozambique	0.1
	19 May 2024 09:45	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 08:00	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	19 May 2024 08:00	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	19 May 2024 10:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:15	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:15	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:15	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:15	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Voalavo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Manampatra	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Donge	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Mkokotoni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Bwereu	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Banda Kuu	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Mkuuni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Gazija	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 03:30	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 03:30	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 03:30	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 03:30	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 03:30	Tanga	Tanzania	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:15	Kamendriky	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 11:15	Tsilambana	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 08:15	Victoria	Seychelles	0.1
	19 May 2024 08:15	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Malindi	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Marikebuni	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Gongoni	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:45	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 02:15	Kipini	Kenya	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Vilamatsa	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 12:00	Ankerefo	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 10:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.1
	19 May 2024 06:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.