Overall Green Tropical Cyclone alert for IALY-24 in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania from 16 May 2024 12:00 UTC to 22 May 2024 06:00 UTC

GDACS is a cooperation framework between the United Nations, the European Commission and disaster managers worldwide to improve alerts, information exchange and coordination in the first phase after major sudden-onset disasters.

Overall Green alert Tropical Cyclone for IALY-24

in Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania

click on

to select bulletin time

Meteorological source:

WMO-RSMC La Réunion
Primary source
GDACS JTWC

Impact Single TC

Impact based on all weather systems in the area

Impact

Tropical Cyclone IALY-24 can have a low humanitarian impact based on the maximum sustained wind speed,exposed population and vulnerability.

Meteorological source	GFS
Exposed countries
Exposed population	No people in Category 1 or higher
Maximum wind speed	79 km/h
Maximum storm surge	0.4 m (17 May 06:00 UTC)
Vulnerability	Medium (Tanzania)

GDACS Score

GDACS alert score for Tropical Cyclones is 0.5 (GREEN Alert), 1.5 (ORANGE Alert), 2.5 (RED Alert)
For more info on GDACS alert score click here.

	Wind	Storm surge	Rainfall	GDACS score
GFS Current	79 km/h	0.4 m	102 mm	0.5
GFS Overall	148 km/h	0.4 m	705 mm	0.5
Maximum winds, storm surge, rainfall (Current: over the next 72 h, Overall: entire TC track)

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Wind

148 km/h

No people by wind speeds of Tropical Storm strength or above

Wind exposed population - AoIs

No exposed population (in Tropical Storm or higher) based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 00:00 UTC

See TC classification SSHS

Wind Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Winds (km/h)	Pop in Cat. 1 or higher	TS	Cat. 1	Cat. 2	Cat. 3	Cat. 4	Cat. 5
1	16 May 2024 12:00	68	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	61	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	94	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

Download:

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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Rainfall

Rain exposed population - AoIs

Estimations based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Level	Country	Population
100-250 mm	Madagascar	482,124
50-100 mm	Seychelles, Madagascar	535,013	+
	Seychelles	21
	Madagascar	534,991

Rain Impact Timeline

people affected <=10000

10000< people affected <=100000

people affected >100000

N°	Date (UTC)	Max Rainfall (mm)	Pop >100mm or higher	50-100	100-250	250-500	500-750	750-1000	>1000	Countries
1	16 May 2024 12:00	87	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
2	16 May 2024 18:00	76	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	17 May 2024 00:00	561	480 thousand			-	-	-	-	Seychelles, Madagascar, Other countries

Impact estimation for the next 72h

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StormSurge

0.4 m

The maximum Storm surge height is 0.4m in Ampasimbe, Madagascar. This height is estimated for 17 May 2024 06:00 UTC .

The JRC has developed an experimental global storm surge model, which is run after each advisory issued by the regional tropical cyclone centres. The calculations are published about 20 minutes after a new advisory is detected by GDACS. The calculations identify the populated places affected by storm surge up to three days in advance, using the forecasted track. When forecasts change, the associated storm surge changes too and alert levels may go up or down. All links, data, statistics and maps refer to the latest available calculation. If the calculation for the last advisory is not completed, the latest available calculation is shown.

Storm Surge Exposed population - AoIs

Storm Surge Exposed locations

Calculation based on the bulletin of 17 May 2024 00:00 UTC

Alert	Date (UTC)	Name	Country	Storm surge height (m)
	17 May 2024 06:00	Ampasimbe	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:00	Manakalana	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:00	Soanierana Ivongo	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:00	Andrangazaha	Madagascar	0.4
	17 May 2024 06:00	Fandrarazana	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 06:00	Ambodifototra	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 06:00	Lonkintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 06:00	Lokintsy	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 06:00	Vohilava	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 06:00	Lohatrozona	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 06:00	Tanambe	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 06:00	Analanampotsy	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 06:00	Manompana	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 06:00	Ambodiatafa	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 06:00	Antakobola	Madagascar	0.3
	17 May 2024 01:00	Voloina	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:00	Manambia	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:00	Rantabe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:00	Anantoraka	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:00	Maroantsetra	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:00	Andranofotsy	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 02:30	Vatobe	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:00	Mahalevona	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:00	Ambanizana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:00	Benjana	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 02:30	Antanetilava	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 02:30	Manambato	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 02:45	Mahavanona	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 02:45	Ampasina	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 03:15	Bagamoyo	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 03:15	Mbweni	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 03:15	Doriya	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:00	Maintimbato	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:45	Victoria	Seychelles	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:45	Anse Boileau	Seychelles	0.2
	17 May 2024 01:00	Tampolo	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 06:00	Fenerive	Madagascar	0.2
	17 May 2024 03:15	Mkadini	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 03:15	Kigongoni	Tanzania	0.2
	17 May 2024 00:00	Somanga	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 00:00	Matapatapa	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 00:00	Pombwe	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 05:00	Petukiza	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 05:00	Kijamboni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 05:00	Vanga	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 05:00	Majoreni	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 05:00	Ramisi	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 05:00	Mkwiro	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 01:00	Antalavia	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 01:00	Anse Volbert Village	Seychelles	0.1
	17 May 2024 01:00	La Reunion	Seychelles	0.1
	17 May 2024 05:30	Ambodimanga	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 05:30	Ivontaka	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 05:30	Antanambe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 05:30	Seranambe	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 03:15	Nhamatamanga	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 03:15	Mulia	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 03:15	Barra	Mozambique	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:45	Dondo	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:45	Mpafu	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:45	Buuni Village	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:15	Mkwaja	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:45	Gongoni	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:45	Ngomeni	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 05:30	Magawa	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 05:30	Msindaji	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 05:30	Kisiju	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:45	Kolekole	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:45	Kilale	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:45	Mvuni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:45	Kiriwani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:45	Tanga	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:45	Sakura	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:45	Kovkovu	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:45	Handeru	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:45	Ushongo Mabaoni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:45	Pangani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:45	Vumbi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 00:00	Jaja	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 03:00	Sadani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:30	Chumbuni	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:30	Taandani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:30	Chekea	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:30	Uchangani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:30	Temi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:30	Chake	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:30	Ziwani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:30	Kijichame	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:30	Jojo	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:30	Kitwea	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:30	Dutani	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:30	Hurumuzi	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:30	Vumba	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 01:00	Fananehana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 01:30	Andringahely	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 01:30	Ampisikanana	Madagascar	0.1
	17 May 2024 03:00	Kiembi Samaki	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 03:00	Mchamba Wima	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 03:00	Fumba	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 05:00	Kipini	Kenya	0.1
	17 May 2024 03:00	Zanzibar	Tanzania	0.1
	17 May 2024 04:45	Bomalandani	Tanzania	0.1

Disclaimer
While we try everything to ensure accuracy, this information is purely indicative and should not be used for any decision making without alternate sources of information.
The JRC is not responsible for any damage or loss resulting from the use of the information presented on this website.
The designations employed and the presentation of material on the map do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the European Union concerning the legal status of any country, territory or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries.